1
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Ngonghala CN, Enright H, Prosper O, Zhao R. Modeling the synergistic interplay between malaria dynamics and economic growth. Math Biosci 2024; 372:109189. [PMID: 38580079 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 03/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024]
Abstract
The mosquito-borne disease (malaria) imposes significant challenges on human health, healthcare systems, and economic growth/productivity in many countries. This study develops and analyzes a model to understand the interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events. It uncovers varied effects of malaria and economic parameters on model outcomes, highlighting the interdependence of the reproduction number (R0) on both malaria and economic factors, and a reciprocal relationship where malaria diminishes economic productivity, while higher economic output is associated with reduced malaria prevalence. This emphasizes the intricate interplay between malaria dynamics and socio-economic factors. The study offers insights into malaria control and underscores the significance of optimizing external aid allocation, especially favoring an even distribution strategy, with the most significant reduction observed in an equal monthly distribution strategy compared to longer distribution intervals. Furthermore, the study shows that controlling malaria in high mosquito biting areas with limited aid, low technology, inadequate treatment, or low economic investment is challenging. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation implying that sustainability of control and mitigation measures is essential even when R0 is slightly less than one. Additionally, there is a parameter regime for which long transients are feasible. Long transients are critical for predicting the behavior of dynamic systems and identifying factors influencing transitions; they reveal reservoirs of infection, vital for disease control. Policy recommendations for effective malaria control from the study include prioritizing sustained control measures, optimizing external aid allocation, and reducing mosquito biting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.
| | - Hope Enright
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University, Mankato, MN 56001, USA
| | - Olivia Prosper
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37916, USA
| | - Ruijun Zhao
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University, Mankato, MN 56001, USA
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2
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Martcheva M, Tuncer N, Ngonghala CN. Effects of social-distancing on infectious disease dynamics: an evolutionary game theory and economic perspective. JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS 2021; 15:342-366. [PMID: 34182892 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2020] [Accepted: 06/12/2021] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maia Martcheva
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Necibe Tuncer
- Department of Mathematics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA
| | - Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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3
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Xiang L, Tang M, Yin Z, Zheng M, Lu S. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Growth: Theory and Simulation. Front Public Health 2021; 9:741525. [PMID: 34604164 PMCID: PMC8484314 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.741525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound consequences on world economy. In order to explore the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic growth and the effects of different policy responses, this paper combines economic theory with epidemiological model to construct an interdisciplinary model, in which labor supply is dynamically constrained by pandemic conditions. Analysis of model equilibrium suggests that outbreaks of infectious disease reduce labor supply and negatively affect economic output. The accumulation of health capital can suppress the spread of disease and improve the recovery rate of infected individuals, which will alleviate the labor supply constraint caused by the pandemic and lead to an increase in output and consumption. The model is then calibrated to Chinese economy. The simulation results imply that government's public health policy can enhance the role of health capital in promoting economic growth. But the marginal effect of certain policies is diminishing. Therefore, the government needs to balance pandemic prevention and control costs and marginal benefits when formulating public health policies. When the pandemic is under control, the resumption of production is feasible and the economic stimulus package could lead to economic recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lijin Xiang
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Mingli Tang
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Zhichao Yin
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Mengmeng Zheng
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Shuang Lu
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
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4
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Yin Z, Chen X, Wang Z, Xiang L. Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis. Front Public Health 2021; 9:748041. [PMID: 34589466 PMCID: PMC8473739 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.748041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper constructs a partial equilibrium model under public health emergency shocks based on economic growth theory, and investigates the relationship between government intervention and virus transmission and economic growth path. We found that both close contacts tracing measures and isolation measures are beneficial to human capital stock and economic output per capita, and the effect of close contact tracing measures is better than that of isolation measures. For infectious diseases of different intensities, economic growth pathways differed across interventions. For low contagious public health emergencies, the focus should be on the coordination of isolation and tracing measures. For highly contagious public health emergencies, strict isolation, and tracing measures have limited effect in repairing the negative economic impact of the outbreak. The theoretical model provides a basic paradigm for the future researches to study economic growth under health emergencies, with good scalability and robustness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhichao Yin
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaoxu Chen
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Zongshu Wang
- Chow Yei Ching School of Graduate Studies, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR China
| | - Lijin Xiang
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
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5
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Southall E, Brett TS, Tildesley MJ, Dyson L. Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210555. [PMID: 34583561 PMCID: PMC8479360 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/06/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Early warning signals (EWSs) are a group of statistical time-series signals which could be used to anticipate a critical transition before it is reached. EWSs are model-independent methods that have grown in popularity to support evidence of disease emergence and disease elimination. Theoretical work has demonstrated their capability of detecting disease transitions in simple epidemic models, where elimination is reached through vaccination, to more complex vector transmission, age-structured and metapopulation models. However, the exact time evolution of EWSs depends on the transition; here we review the literature to provide guidance on what trends to expect and when. Recent advances include methods which detect when an EWS becomes significant; the earlier an upcoming disease transition is detected, the more valuable an EWS will be in practice. We suggest that future work should firstly validate detection methods with synthetic and historical datasets, before addressing their performance with real-time data which is accruing. A major challenge to overcome for the use of EWSs with disease transitions is to maintain the accuracy of EWSs in data-poor settings. We demonstrate how EWSs behave on reported cases for pertussis in the USA, to highlight some limitations when detecting disease transitions with real-world data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Southall
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Mathematics for Real World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Tobias S. Brett
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Michael J. Tildesley
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Louise Dyson
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
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6
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Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:907-918. [PMID: 34002048 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens-and the best ways to manage this-remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.
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7
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Borgerson C, Fisher BL, Razafindrapaoly BN, Rasolofoniaina BJR, Randriamanetsy JM, Razafindrapaoly BL, Rajaona D, Herrera P, Van Itterbeeck J, Martinez KM, Aardema ML. A nutrient‐rich traditional insect for improving food security and reducing biodiversity loss in Madagascar and
sub‐Saharan
Africa. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Cortni Borgerson
- Department of Anthropology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
- Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) Maroantsetra Madagascar
| | - Brian L. Fisher
- California Academy of the Sciences San Francisco California USA
- Madagascar Biodiversity Center Parc Botanique et Zoologique de Tsimbazaza Antananarivo Madagascar
| | | | | | | | | | - Delox Rajaona
- Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) Maroantsetra Madagascar
| | - Patsy Herrera
- Department of Anthropology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
- Department of Biology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
| | | | - Kenneth M. Martinez
- Department of Anthropology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
| | - Matthew L. Aardema
- Department of Biology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
- Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics American Museum of Natural History New York New York USA
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8
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Abstract
Combining spatial and temporal data is helping researchers to understand how deforestation influences the risk of malaria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States
| | - Andres Baeza
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States.,Global Drylands Center, Arizona State University, Chicago, United States
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9
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Comizzoli P, Pagenkopp Lohan KM, Muletz-Wolz C, Hassell J, Coyle B. The Interconnected Health Initiative: A Smithsonian Framework to Extend One Health Research and Education. Front Vet Sci 2021; 8:629410. [PMID: 33834047 PMCID: PMC8021902 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.629410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
To better tackle diseases and sustain healthy ecosystems, One Health programs must efficiently bridge health in humans, domestic/livestock species, wild animals and plants, agriculture/aquaculture, and the environment. The Smithsonian Institution proposes to address this by considering ‘health' in a broad sense – the absence of undue pathogens and unnecessary stress for any organisms as well as access to good living conditions in functional environments. Considering the interconnectedness of all life forms, the Smithsonian plans to create a framework that will integrate cultural, social, and educational components into health research on humans, animals, plants, or ecosystems. The objectives of this perspective article are to (1) propose an innovative framework to support an interconnected/integrated approach to health and (2) provide examples fostering impactful collaborations on One Health research and education. Based on the core strengths of the Smithsonian (multidisciplinary research, outreach and education programs, libraries/archives, and collections) and central institutional support, this framework has the potential to extend existing health-related projects, address new needs and situations (e.g., response to pandemics), provide invaluable resources to inform policy and decision makers, and educate all audiences globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Comizzoli
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, United States.,Office of the Under-Secretary for Science and Research, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, United States
| | | | - Carly Muletz-Wolz
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, United States
| | - James Hassell
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Brian Coyle
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, United States.,Office of the Under-Secretary for Science and Research, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, United States
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10
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Lund AJ, Rehkopf DH, Sokolow SH, Sam MM, Jouanard N, Schacht AM, Senghor S, Fall A, Riveau G, De Leo GA, Lopez-Carr D. Land use impacts on parasitic infection: a cross-sectional epidemiological study on the role of irrigated agriculture in schistosome infection in a dammed landscape. Infect Dis Poverty 2021; 10:35. [PMID: 33745442 PMCID: PMC7983278 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-021-00816-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Water resources development promotes agricultural expansion and food security. But are these benefits offset by increased infectious disease risk? Dam construction on the Senegal River in 1986 was followed by agricultural expansion and increased transmission of human schistosomes. Yet the mechanisms linking these two processes at the individual and household levels remain unclear. We investigated the association between household land use and schistosome infection in children. Methods We analyzed cross-sectional household survey data (n = 655) collected in 16 rural villages in August 2016 across demographic, socio-economic and land use dimensions, which were matched to Schistosoma haematobium (n = 1232) and S. mansoni (n = 1222) infection data collected from school-aged children. Mixed effects regression determined the relationship between irrigated area and schistosome infection presence and intensity. Results Controlling for socio-economic and demographic risk factors, irrigated area cultivated by a household was associated with an increase in the presence of S. haematobium infection (odds ratio [OR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.03–1.28) but not S. mansoni infection (OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.93–1.11). Associations between infection intensity and irrigated area were positive but imprecise (S. haematobium: rate ratio [RR] = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.98–1.13, S. mansoni: RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.89–1.32). Conclusions Household engagement in irrigated agriculture increases individual risk of S. haematobium but not S. mansoni infection. Increased contact with irrigated landscapes likely drives exposure, with greater impacts on households relying on agricultural livelihoods.![]() Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00816-5.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea J Lund
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega Suite 226, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - David H Rehkopf
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford University, 1701 Page Mill Road Room 229, Palo Alto, CA, USA
| | - Susanne H Sokolow
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA, USA.,Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, 120 Ocean View Blvd, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - M Moustapha Sam
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale-Espoir Pour La Sante, 263 Route de la Corniche, BP 226, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
| | - Nicolas Jouanard
- Station d'Innovation Aquacole, UGB Cote Cite SAED, BP 524, Saint-Louis, Sénégal.,Center for Infection and Immunology of Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, 1 Rue du Professeur Calmette, 59800, Lille, France
| | - Anne-Marie Schacht
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale-Espoir Pour La Sante, 263 Route de la Corniche, BP 226, Saint-Louis, Sénégal.,Center for Infection and Immunology of Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, 1 Rue du Professeur Calmette, 59800, Lille, France
| | - Simon Senghor
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale-Espoir Pour La Sante, 263 Route de la Corniche, BP 226, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
| | - Assane Fall
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale-Espoir Pour La Sante, 263 Route de la Corniche, BP 226, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
| | - Gilles Riveau
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale-Espoir Pour La Sante, 263 Route de la Corniche, BP 226, Saint-Louis, Sénégal.,Center for Infection and Immunology of Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, 1 Rue du Professeur Calmette, 59800, Lille, France
| | - Giulio A De Leo
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, 120 Ocean View Blvd, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - David Lopez-Carr
- Department of Geography, University of California, 4836 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
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11
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Sun TA, Hilker FM. Analyzing the mutual feedbacks between lake pollution and human behaviour in a mathematical social-ecological model. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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12
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Lund AJ, Sam MM, Sy AB, Sow OW, Ali S, Sokolow SH, Bereknyei Merrell S, Bruce J, Jouanard N, Senghor S, Riveau G, Lopez-Carr D, De Leo GA. Unavoidable Risks: Local Perspectives on Water Contact Behavior and Implications for Schistosomiasis Control in an Agricultural Region of Northern Senegal. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2019; 101:837-847. [PMID: 31452497 PMCID: PMC6779182 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2019] [Accepted: 06/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Human schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease affecting more than 200 million people worldwide. Direct contact with snail-infested freshwater is the primary route of exposure. Water management infrastructure, including dams and irrigation schemes, expands snail habitat, increasing the risk across the landscape. The Diama Dam, built on the lower basin of the Senegal River to prevent saltwater intrusion and promote year-round agriculture in the drought-prone Sahel, is a paradigmatic case. Since dam completion in 1986, the rural population-whose livelihoods rely mostly on agriculture-has suffered high rates of schistosome infection. The region remains one of the most hyperendemic regions in the world. Because of the convergence between livelihoods and environmental conditions favorable to transmission, schistosomiasis is considered an illustrative case of a disease-driven poverty trap (DDPT). The literature to date on the topic, however, remains largely theoretical. With qualitative data generated from 12 focus groups in four villages, we conducted team-based theme analysis to investigate how perception of schistosomiasis risk and reported preventive behaviors may suggest the presence of a DDPT. Our analysis reveals three key findings: 1) rural villagers understand schistosomiasis risk (i.e., where and when infections occur), 2) accordingly, they adopt some preventive behaviors, but ultimately, 3) exposure persists, because of circumstances characteristic of rural livelihoods. These findings highlight the capacity of local populations to participate actively in schistosomiasis control programs and the limitations of widespread drug treatment campaigns. Interventions that target the environmental reservoir of disease may provide opportunities to reduce exposure while maintaining resource-dependent livelihoods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea J. Lund
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | | | - Alioune Badara Sy
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
| | | | - Sofia Ali
- Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | | | - Sylvia Bereknyei Merrell
- Department of Surgery, Stanford Surgery Policy Improvement Research & Education Center (S-SPIRE), School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Janine Bruce
- Pediatric Advocacy Program, Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Nicolas Jouanard
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
- Station d’Innovation Aquacole, Saint Louis, Senegal
| | - Simon Senghor
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
| | - Gilles Riveau
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
| | - David Lopez-Carr
- Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
| | - Giulio A. De Leo
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California
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13
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Franklinos LHV, Jones KE, Redding DW, Abubakar I. The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2019; 19:e302-e312. [PMID: 31227327 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30161-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 212] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2018] [Revised: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 03/21/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lydia H V Franklinos
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK; Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Kate E Jones
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | - David W Redding
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ibrahim Abubakar
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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14
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Rohr JR, Barrett CB, Civitello DJ, Craft ME, Delius B, DeLeo GA, Hudson PJ, Jouanard N, Nguyen KH, Ostfeld RS, Remais JV, Riveau G, Sokolow SH, Tilman D. Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 2019; 2:445-456. [PMID: 32219187 PMCID: PMC7091874 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0293-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 223] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2018] [Accepted: 04/17/2019] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Infectious diseases are emerging globally at an unprecedented rate while global food demand is projected to increase sharply by 2100. Here, we synthesize the pathways by which projected agricultural expansion and intensification will influence human infectious diseases and how human infectious diseases might likewise affect food production and distribution. Feeding 11 billion people will require substantial increases in crop and animal production that will expand agricultural use of antibiotics, water, pesticides and fertilizer, and contact rates between humans and both wild and domestic animals, all with consequences for the emergence and spread of infectious agents. Indeed, our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all - and >50% of zoonotic - infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason R. Rohr
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute for Global Health, and Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN USA
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL USA
| | | | | | - Meggan E. Craft
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN USA
| | - Bryan Delius
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL USA
| | - Giulio A. DeLeo
- Department of Biology and Woods Institute for the Environment, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA USA
| | - Peter J. Hudson
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, College Station, PA USA
| | - Nicolas Jouanard
- Laboratoire de Recherches Biomédicales, Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Karena H. Nguyen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL USA
| | | | - Justin V. Remais
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA
| | - Gilles Riveau
- Laboratoire de Recherches Biomédicales, Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Susanne H. Sokolow
- Department of Biology and Woods Institute for the Environment, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA USA
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
| | - David Tilman
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN USA
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15
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Abstract
Universal health care (UHC) is garnering growing support throughout the world, a reflection of social and economic progress and of the recognition that population health is both an indicator and an instrument of national development. Substantial human and financial resources will be required to achieve UHC in any of the various ways it has been conceived and defined. Progress toward achieving UHC will be aided by new technologies, a willingness to shift medical tasks from highly trained to appropriately well-trained personnel, a judicious balance between the quantity and quality of health care services, and resource allocation decisions that acknowledge the important role of public health interventions and nonmedical influences on population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- David E Bloom
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
| | - Alexander Khoury
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Ramnath Subbaraman
- Center for Global Public Health and the Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02111, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris Desmond
- Human Sciences Research Council, Private Bag X07, Dalbridge, 4014, South Africa.
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