1
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Leksa V. And the stars look down: science beyond the finite : From prehistorical science to postscience. EMBO Rep 2024; 25:3177-3181. [PMID: 38969947 PMCID: PMC11315908 DOI: 10.1038/s44319-024-00202-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2024] [Revised: 05/22/2024] [Accepted: 06/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Modern science has brought undisputable welfare to mankind, but also harmful consequences, and it has to face great challenges to find a way out of the current global crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vladimir Leksa
- Laboratory of Molecular Immunology, Institute of Molecular Biology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia.
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2
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Toszogyova A, Smyčka J, Storch D. Mathematical biases in the calculation of the Living Planet Index lead to overestimation of vertebrate population decline. Nat Commun 2024; 15:5295. [PMID: 38906876 PMCID: PMC11192898 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49070-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024] Open
Abstract
The Living Planet Index (LPI) measures the average change in population size of vertebrate species over recent decades and has been repeatedly used to assess the changing state of nature. The LPI indicates that vertebrate populations have decreased by almost 70% over the last 50 years. This is in striking contrast with current studies based on the same population time series data that show that increasing and decreasing populations are balanced on average. Here, we examine the methodological pipeline of calculating the LPI to search for the source of this discrepancy. We find that the calculation of the LPI is biased by several mathematical issues which impose an imbalance between detected increasing and decreasing trends and overestimate population declines. Rather than indicating that vertebrate populations do not substantially change, our findings imply that we need better measures for providing a balanced picture of current biodiversity changes. We also show some modifications to improve the reliability of the LPI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Toszogyova
- Center for Theoretical Study, Charles University & Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-110 00, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Jan Smyčka
- Center for Theoretical Study, Charles University & Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-110 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - David Storch
- Center for Theoretical Study, Charles University & Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-110 00, Prague, Czech Republic
- Department of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, CZ-128 44, Prague, Czech Republic
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3
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Leksa V. Piccadilly full of people and other foul things : On heroism and perversion in the post-pandemic era. EMBO Rep 2024; 25:2520-2524. [PMID: 38671296 PMCID: PMC11169519 DOI: 10.1038/s44319-024-00143-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Science gifts us the tools to solve the pressing humanitarian and ecological challenges of our time. But ignorance and selfishness prevent us from using science to the best effect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vladimir Leksa
- Laboratory of Molecular Immunology, Institute of Molecular Biology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Dubravska cesta 21, 845 51, Bratislava, Slovakia.
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4
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Johnson TF, Beckerman AP, Childs DZ, Webb TJ, Evans KL, Griffiths CA, Capdevila P, Clements CF, Besson M, Gregory RD, Thomas GH, Delmas E, Freckleton RP. Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change. Nature 2024; 628:788-794. [PMID: 38538788 PMCID: PMC11041640 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07236-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Abstract
Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change1. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets2-11 that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- T F Johnson
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
| | - A P Beckerman
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - D Z Childs
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - T J Webb
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - K L Evans
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - C A Griffiths
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Lysekil, Sweden
| | - P Capdevila
- School of Biological Sciences, Biosciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain
| | - C F Clements
- School of Biological Sciences, Biosciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - M Besson
- School of Biological Sciences, Biosciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Biologie Intégrative des Organismes Marins, BIOM, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France
| | - R D Gregory
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - G H Thomas
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - E Delmas
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Habitat, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Institut des Sciences de la Forêt Tempérée, Université du Québec en Outaouais, Ripon, Quebec, Canada
| | - R P Freckleton
- School of Biosciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Debrecen Biodiversity Centre, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
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5
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Bahlai CA. Forecasting insect dynamics in a changing world. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2023; 60:101133. [PMID: 37858790 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2023.101133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/13/2023] [Indexed: 10/21/2023]
Abstract
Predicting how insects will respond to stressors through time is difficult because of the diversity of insects, environments, and approaches used to monitor and model. Forecasting models take correlative/statistical, mechanistic models, and integrated forms; in some cases, temporal processes can be inferred from spatial models. Because of heterogeneity associated with broad community measurements, models are often unable to identify mechanistic explanations. Many present efforts to forecast insect dynamics are restricted to single-species models, which can offer precise predictions but limited generalizability. Trait-based approaches may offer a good compromise that limits the masking of the ranges of responses while still offering insight. Regardless of the modeling approach, the data used to parameterize a forecasting model should be carefully evaluated for temporal autocorrelation, minimum data needs, and sampling biases in the data. Forecasting models can be tested using near-term predictions and revised to improve future forecasts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christie A Bahlai
- Department of Biological Sciences, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242, USA; Environmental Science and Design Research Institute, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242, USA.
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6
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Liao X, Liu A, Chai L. Global food trade alleviates transgressions of planetary boundaries at the national scale. iScience 2023; 26:107794. [PMID: 37720085 PMCID: PMC10504541 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Food systems are among the leading causes for transgression of planetary boundaries globally, which define the safe operating space for humanity. We quantify unsustainable environmental impacts of food systems, indicated by the transgression of national-scale planetary boundaries (i.e., the safe operating space for food production in each country), from both production and consumption perspectives of 189 countries/regions around the world. A multi-regional input-output model is used to map the global transfers of the national-scale transgression of planetary boundaries, including freshwater use, land change, and biogeochemical flows (nitrogen and phosphorus). Our results show that China is a major global unsustainable water and nitrogen exporter and an unstable land and phosphorus importer. This means that water and nitrogen uses in China are used to support food demands in other countries, and food consumption in China requires unsustainable land and phosphorus uses elsewhere. In contrast, the US is a major exporter of unsustainable water, land, and nitrogen uses but only an importer of unsustainable phosphorus for food consumption. Globally, compared to a counterfactual scenario where there is no food trade among any countries, food trade saves massive transgressions of planetary boundaries (270 km3 of water, 18 million tons of nitrogen, 7 million tons of phosphorus, and 5,431 million km2 of land). Alleviation of national-scale planetary boundary transgression has been achieved primarily in the US, China, Saudi Arabia, etc., while aggravation was incurred in Pakistan, Australia, Argentina, and so forth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiawei Liao
- Bay Area International Business School, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
| | - Ao Liu
- College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Li Chai
- College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
- International College Beijing, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
- National Innovation Center for Digital Fishery, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
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7
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Finn C, Grattarola F, Pincheira-Donoso D. More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:1732-1748. [PMID: 37189305 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity ('defaunation') represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic 'footprints' that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as 'non-threatened', 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine Finn
- MacroBiodiversity Lab, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, 19 Chlorine Gardens, Belfast, BT9 5DL, UK
| | - Florencia Grattarola
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Praha-Suchdol, 165 00, Czech Republic
| | - Daniel Pincheira-Donoso
- MacroBiodiversity Lab, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, 19 Chlorine Gardens, Belfast, BT9 5DL, UK
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8
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Spake R, Bowler DE, Callaghan CT, Blowes SA, Doncaster CP, Antão LH, Nakagawa S, McElreath R, Chase JM. Understanding 'it depends' in ecology: a guide to hypothesising, visualising and interpreting statistical interactions. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:983-1002. [PMID: 36859791 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 02/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
Abstract
Ecologists routinely use statistical models to detect and explain interactions among ecological drivers, with a goal to evaluate whether an effect of interest changes in sign or magnitude in different contexts. Two fundamental properties of interactions are often overlooked during the process of hypothesising, visualising and interpreting interactions between drivers: the measurement scale - whether a response is analysed on an additive or multiplicative scale, such as a ratio or logarithmic scale; and the symmetry - whether dependencies are considered in both directions. Overlooking these properties can lead to one or more of three inferential errors: misinterpretation of (i) the detection and magnitude (Type-D error), and (ii) the sign of effect modification (Type-S error); and (iii) misidentification of the underlying processes (Type-A error). We illustrate each of these errors with a broad range of ecological questions applied to empirical and simulated data sets. We demonstrate how meta-analysis, a widely used approach that seeks explicitly to characterise context dependence, is especially prone to all three errors. Based on these insights, we propose guidelines to improve hypothesis generation, testing, visualisation and interpretation of interactions in ecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Spake
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, RG6 6EX, Reading, UK
| | - Diana E Bowler
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, OX10 8BB, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Corey T Callaghan
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle - Wittenberg, 06120, Halle (Saale), Germany
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Davie, 33314-7719, FL, USA
| | - Shane A Blowes
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06099, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - C Patrick Doncaster
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, SO17 1BJ, Southampton, UK
| | - Laura H Antão
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Shinichi Nakagawa
- UNSW Data Science Hub, Evolution & Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia
| | - Richard McElreath
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Human Behavior, Ecology and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Deutscher Platz 6, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
| | - Jonathan M Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06099, Halle (Saale), Germany
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9
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Mori AS, Suzuki KF, Hori M, Kadoya T, Okano K, Uraguchi A, Muraoka H, Sato T, Shibata H, Suzuki-Ohno Y, Koba K, Toda M, Nakano SI, Kondoh M, Kitajima K, Nakamura M. Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220192. [PMID: 37246388 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Akira S Mori
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan
| | - Kureha F Suzuki
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan
| | - Masakazu Hori
- Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 6F Technowave100, 1-1-25 Shin-urashima, Kanagawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 221-8529, Japan
| | - Taku Kadoya
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Kotaro Okano
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
| | - Aya Uraguchi
- Conservation International Japan, 1-17 Yotsuya, Shinjuku, Tokyo 160-0014, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Muraoka
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
- River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu City 501-1193, Japan
| | - Tamotsu Sato
- International Strategy Division, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
| | - Hideaki Shibata
- Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, N9 W9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0809, Japan
| | - Yukari Suzuki-Ohno
- Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki-aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
| | - Keisuke Koba
- Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Hirano 2-509-3, Otsu, Shiga 520-2113, Japan
| | - Mariko Toda
- Kokusai Kogyo Co., Ltd. Shinjuku Front Tower, 21-1, Kita-Shinjuku 2-chome, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 169-0074, Japan
| | - Shin-Ichi Nakano
- Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Hirano 2-509-3, Otsu, Shiga 520-2113, Japan
| | - Michio Kondoh
- Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki-aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
| | - Kaoru Kitajima
- Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan
| | - Masahiro Nakamura
- Tomakomai Experimental Forest, Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, Takaoka, Tomakomai, Hokkaido 053-0035, Japan
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10
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Tekwa EW, Whalen MA, Martone PT, O'Connor MI. Theory and application of an improved species richness estimator. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220187. [PMID: 37246376 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 04/10/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Species richness is an essential biodiversity variable indicative of ecosystem states and rates of invasion, speciation and extinction both contemporarily and in fossil records. However, limited sampling effort and spatial aggregation of organisms mean that biodiversity surveys rarely observe every species in the survey area. Here we present a non-parametric, asymptotic and bias-minimized richness estimator, Ω by modelling how spatial abundance characteristics affect observation of species richness. Improved asymptotic estimators are critical when both absolute richness and difference detection are important. We conduct simulation tests and applied Ω to a tree census and a seaweed survey. Ω consistently outperforms other estimators in balancing bias, precision and difference detection accuracy. However, small difference detection is poor with any asymptotic estimator. An R-package, Richness, performs the proposed richness estimations along with other asymptotic estimators and bootstrapped precisions. Our results explain how natural and observer-induced variations affect species observation, how these factors can be used to correct observed richness using the estimator Ω on a variety of data, and why further improvements are critical for biodiversity assessments. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eden W Tekwa
- Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4 British Columbia, Canada
- Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, V0P 1H0 British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Biology, McGill University, H3A 1B1 Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Matthew A Whalen
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4 British Columbia, Canada
- Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, V0P 1H0 British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Biology, Virginia State University, Petersburg, 23806 VA, USA
| | - Patrick T Martone
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4 British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mary I O'Connor
- Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4 British Columbia, Canada
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11
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Gregory RD, Eaton MA, Burfield IJ, Grice PV, Howard C, Klvaňová A, Noble D, Šilarová E, Staneva A, Stephens PA, Willis SG, Woodward ID, Burns F. Drivers of the changing abundance of European birds at two spatial scales. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220198. [PMID: 37246375 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Detecting biodiversity change and identifying its causes is challenging because biodiversity is multifaceted and temporal data often contain bias. Here, we model temporal change in species' abundance and biomass by using extensive data describing the population sizes and trends of native breeding birds in the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). In addition, we explore how species' population trends vary with species' traits. We demonstrate significant change in the bird assemblages of the UK and EU, with substantial reductions in overall bird abundance and losses concentrated in a relatively small number of abundant and smaller sized species. By contrast, rarer and larger birds had generally fared better. Simultaneously, overall avian biomass had increased very slightly in the UK and was stable in the EU, indicating a change in community structure. Abundance trends across species were positively correlated with species' body mass and with trends in climate suitability, and varied with species' abundance, migration strategy and niche associations linked to diet. Our work highlights how changes in biodiversity cannot be captured easily by a single number; care is required when measuring and interpreting biodiversity change given that different metrics can provide very different insights. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard D Gregory
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Sandy, Befordshire SG19 2DL, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | | | - Ian J Burfield
- BirdLife International, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Philip V Grice
- Chief Scientist Directorate, Natural England, Peterborough PE2 8YY, UK
| | - Christine Howard
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, County Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Alena Klvaňová
- Czech Society for Ornithology, 150 00 Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - David Noble
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK
| | - Eva Šilarová
- Czech Society for Ornithology, 150 00 Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Anna Staneva
- BirdLife International, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Philip A Stephens
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, County Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Stephen G Willis
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, County Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Ian D Woodward
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK
| | - Fiona Burns
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
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Albaladejo‐Robles G, Böhm M, Newbold T. Species life-history strategies affect population responses to temperature and land-cover changes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:97-109. [PMID: 36250232 PMCID: PMC10092366 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Revised: 07/24/2022] [Accepted: 08/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Human-induced environmental changes have a direct impact on species populations, with some species experiencing declines while others display population growth. Understanding why and how species populations respond differently to environmental changes is fundamental to mitigate and predict future biodiversity changes. Theoretically, species life-history strategies are key determinants shaping the response of populations to environmental impacts. Despite this, the association between species life histories and the response of populations to environmental changes has not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of recent land-cover and temperature changes on rates of population change of 1,072 populations recorded in the Living Planet Database. We selected populations with at least 5 yearly consecutive records (after imputation of missing population estimates) between 1992 and 2016, and for which we achieved high population imputation accuracy (in the cases where missing values had to be imputed). These populations were distributed across 553 different locations and included 461 terrestrial amniote vertebrate species (273 birds, 137 mammals, and 51 reptiles) with different life-history strategies. We showed that populations of fast-lived species inhabiting areas that have experienced recent expansion of cropland or bare soil present positive populations trends on average, whereas slow-lived species display negative population trends. Although these findings support previous hypotheses that fast-lived species are better adapted to recover their populations after an environmental perturbation, the sensitivity analysis revealed that model outcomes are strongly influenced by the addition or exclusion of populations with extreme rates of change. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. With climate and land-use changes likely to increase in the future, establishing clear links between species characteristics and responses to these threats is fundamental for designing and conducting conservation actions. The results of this study can aid in evaluating population sensitivity, assessing the likely conservation status of species with poor data coverage, and predicting future scenarios of biodiversity change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gonzalo Albaladejo‐Robles
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and EnvironmentUniversity College LondonLondonUK
- Institute of ZoologyZoological Society of LondonLondonUK
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of ZoologyZoological Society of LondonLondonUK
- Global Center for Species SurvivalIndianapolisIndianaUSA
| | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and EnvironmentUniversity College LondonLondonUK
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Currie J, Burant JB, Marconi V, Blain SA, Emry S, Hébert K, Xie G, Moore NA, Wang X, Brown A, Grevstad L, McRae L, Mezzini S, Pata P, Freeman R. Assessing the representation of species included within the Canadian Living Planet Index. Facets (Ott) 2022. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2022-0063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
To effectively combat the biodiversity crisis, we need ambitious targets and reliable indicators to accurately track trends and measure conservation impact. In Canada, the Living Planet Index (LPI) has been adapted to produce a national indicator by both World Wildlife Fund-Canada (Canadian Living Planet Index; C-LPI) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (Canadian Species Index) to provide insight into the status of Canadian wildlife, by evaluating temporal trends in vertebrate population abundance. The indicator includes data for just over 50% of Canadian vertebrate species. To assess whether the current dataset is representative of the distribution of life history characteristics of Canadian wildlife, we analyzed the representation of species-specific biotic variables (i.e., body size, trophic level, lifespan) for vertebrates within the C-LPI compared to native vertebrates lacking LPI data. Generally, there was considerable overlap in the distribution of biotic variables for species in the C-LPI compared to native Canadian vertebrate species lacking LPI data. Nevertheless, some differences among distributions were found, driven in large part by discrepancy in the representation of fishes—where the C-LPI included larger-bodied and longer-lived species. We provide recommendations for targeted data collection and additional analyses to further strengthen the applicability, accuracy, and representativity of biodiversity indicators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Currie
- World Wildlife Fund Canada, 410 Adelaide Street West, Toronto ON M5V 1S8, Canada
| | - Joseph B. Burant
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Docteur Penfield Avenue, Montreal QC H3A 1B1, Canada
- Département de sciences biologiques, Université de Montréal, 1375 Avenue Thérèse-Lavoie-Roux, Montréal QC H2V 0B3, Canada
- Living Data Project, Canadian Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Vancouver BC V6T 124, Canada
| | - Valentina Marconi
- Indicators and Assessments Unit, Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Department of Life Sciences (Silwood Park), Imperial College London, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, United Kingdom
| | - Stephanie A. Blain
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Boulevard, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Sandra Emry
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Boulevard, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Katherine Hébert
- Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 Boulevard de l’Université, Sherbrooke QC J1K 2R1, Canada
| | - Garland Xie
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto ON M1C 1A4, Canada
| | - Nikki A. Moore
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Docteur Penfield Avenue, Montreal QC H3A 1B1, Canada
| | - Xueqi Wang
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph ON N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Andrea Brown
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Docteur Penfield Avenue, Montreal QC H3A 1B1, Canada
| | - Lara Grevstad
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 2329 West Mall, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Louise McRae
- Indicators and Assessments Unit, Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
| | - Stefano Mezzini
- Department of Biology, University of British Columbia, 1177 Research Road, Kelowna BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Patrick Pata
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, 2207 Main Mall, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Robin Freeman
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph ON N1G 2W1, Canada
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