Genomic prediction of maize yield across European environmental conditions

Dual-Model GWAS Analysis and Genomic Selection of Maize Flowering Time-Related Traits

An appropriate flowering period is an important selection criterion in maize breeding. It plays a crucial role in the ecological adaptability of maize varieties. To explore the genetic basis of flowering time, GWAS and GS analyses were conducted using an associating panel consisting of 379 multi-parent DH lines. The DH population was phenotyped for days to tasseling (DTT), days to pollen-shedding (DTP), and days to silking (DTS) in different environments. The heritability was 82.75%, 86.09%, and 85.26% for DTT, DTP, and DTS, respectively. The GWAS analysis with the FarmCPU model identified 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed on chromosomes 3, 8, 9, and 10 that were significantly associated with flowering time-related traits. The GWAS analysis with the BLINK model identified seven SNPs distributed on chromosomes 1, 3, 8, 9, and 10 that were significantly associated with flowering time-related traits. Three SNPs 3_198946071, 9_146646966, and 9_152140631 showed a pleiotropic effect, indicating a significant genetic correlation between DTT, DTP, and DTS. A total of 24 candidate genes were detected. A relatively high prediction accuracy was achieved with 100 significantly associated SNPs detected from GWAS, and the optimal training population size was 70%. This study provides a better understanding of the genetic architecture of flowering time-related traits and provides an optimal strategy for GS.

Satellite-enabled enviromics to enhance crop improvement

Enviromics refers to the characterization of micro- and macroenvironments based on large-scale environmental datasets. By providing genotypic recommendations with predictive extrapolation at a site-specific level, enviromics could inform plant breeding decisions across varying conditions and anticipate productivity in a changing climate. Enviromics-based integration of statistics, envirotyping (i.e., determining environmental factors), and remote sensing could help unravel the complex interplay of genetics, environment, and management. To support this goal, exhaustive envirotyping to generate precise environmental profiles would significantly improve predictions of genotype performance and genetic gain in crops. Already, informatics management platforms aggregate diverse environmental datasets obtained using optical, thermal, radar, and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)sensors that capture detailed information about vegetation, surface structure, and terrain. This wealth of information, coupled with freely available climate data, fuels innovative enviromics research. While enviromics holds immense potential for breeding, a few obstacles remain, such as the need for (1) integrative methodologies to systematically collect field data to scale and expand observations across the landscape with satellite data; (2) state-of-the-art AI models for data integration, simulation, and prediction; (3) cyberinfrastructure for processing big data across scales and providing seamless interfaces to deliver forecasts to stakeholders; and (4) collaboration and data sharing among farmers, breeders, physiologists, geoinformatics experts, and programmers across research institutions. Overcoming these challenges is essential for leveraging the full potential of big data captured by satellites to transform 21st century agriculture and crop improvement through enviromics.

From Neglecting to Including Cultivar-Specific Per Se Temperature Responses: Extending the Concept of Thermal Time in Field Crops

Predicting plant development, a longstanding goal in plant physiology, involves 2 interwoven components: continuous growth and the progression of growth stages (phenology). Current models for winter wheat and soybean assume species-level growth responses to temperature. We challenge this assumption, suggesting that cultivar-specific temperature responses substantially affect phenology. To investigate, we collected field-based growth and phenology data in winter wheat and soybean over multiple years. We used diverse models, from linear to neural networks, to assess growth responses to temperature at various trait and covariate levels. Cultivar-specific nonlinear models best explained phenology-related cultivar-environment interactions. With cultivar-specific models, additional relations to other stressors than temperature were found. The availability of the presented field phenotyping tools allows incorporating cultivar-specific temperature response functions in future plant physiology studies, which will deepen our understanding of key factors that influence plant development. Consequently, this work has implications for crop breeding and cultivation under adverse climatic conditions.

Enhancing winter wheat prediction with genomics, phenomics and environmental data

In the realm of multi-environment prediction, when the goal is to predict a complete environment using the others as a training set, the efficiency of genomic selection (GS) falls short of expectations. Genotype by environment interaction poses a challenge in achieving high prediction accuracies. Consequently, current efforts are focused on enhancing efficiency by integrating various types of inputs, such as phenomics data, environmental information, and other omics data. In this study, we sought to evaluate the impact of incorporating environmental information into the modeling process, in addition to genomic and phenomics information. Our evaluation encompassed five data sets of soft white winter wheat, and the results revealed a significant improvement in prediction accuracy, as measured by the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), through the integration of environmental information. Notably, there was an average gain in prediction accuracy of 49.19% in terms of NRMSE across the data sets. Moreover, the observed prediction accuracy ranged from 5.68% (data set 3) to 60.36% (data set 4), underscoring the substantial effect of integrating environmental information. By including genomic, phenomic, and environmental data in prediction models, plant breeding programs can improve selection efficiency across locations.

MicroRNA397 promotes rice flowering by regulating the photorespiration pathway

The precise timing of flowering plays a pivotal role in ensuring successful plant reproduction and seed production. This process is intricately governed by complex genetic networks that integrate internal and external signals. This study delved into the regulatory function of microRNA397 (miR397) and its target gene LACCASE-15 (OsLAC15) in modulating flowering traits in rice (Oryza sativa). Overexpression of miR397 led to earlier heading dates, decreased number of leaves on the main stem, and accelerated differentiation of the spikelet meristem. Conversely, overexpression of OsLAC15 resulted in delayed flowering and prolonged vegetative growth. Through biochemical and physiological assays, we uncovered that miR397-OsLAC15 had a profound impact on carbohydrate accumulation and photosynthetic assimilation, consequently enhancing the photosynthetic intensity in miR397-overexpressing rice plants. Notably, we identified that OsLAC15 is at least partially localized within the peroxisome organelle, where it regulates the photorespiration pathway. Moreover, we observed that a high CO2 concentration could rescue the late flowering phenotype in OsLAC15-overexpressing plants. These findings shed valuable insights into the regulatory mechanisms of miR397-OsLAC15 in rice flowering and provided potential strategies for developing crop varieties with early flowering and high-yield traits through genetic breeding.

Engineering the future cereal crops with big biological data: toward an intelligence-driven breeding by design

How to feed 10 billion human populations is one of the challenges that need to be addressed in the following decades, especially under an unpredicted climate change. Crop breeding, initiating from the phenotype-based selection by local farmers and developing into current biotechnology-based breeding, has played a critical role in securing the global food supply. However, regarding the changing environment and ever-increasing human population, can we breed outstanding crop varieties fast enough to achieve high productivity, good quality, and widespread adaptability? This review outlines the recent achievements in understanding cereal crop breeding, including the current knowledge about crop agronomic traits, newly developed techniques, crop big biological data research, and the possibility of integrating them for intelligence-driven breeding by design, which ushers in a new era of crop breeding practice and shapes the novel architecture of future crops. This review focuses on the major cereal crops, including rice, maize, and wheat, to explain how intelligence-driven breeding by design is becoming a reality.

Time-Series Field Phenotyping of Soybean Growth Analysis by Combining Multimodal Deep Learning and Dynamic Modeling

The rate of soybean canopy establishment largely determines photoperiodic sensitivity, subsequently influencing yield potential. However, assessing the rate of soybean canopy development in large-scale field breeding trials is both laborious and time-consuming. High-throughput phenotyping methods based on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems can be used to monitor and quantitatively describe the development of soybean canopies for different genotypes. In this study, high-resolution and time-series raw data from field soybean populations were collected using UAVs. The RGB (red, green, and blue) and infrared images are used as inputs to construct the multimodal image segmentation model-the RGB & Infrared Feature Fusion Segmentation Network (RIFSeg-Net). Subsequently, the segment anything model was employed to extract complete individual leaves from the segmentation results obtained from RIFSeg-Net. These leaf aspect ratios facilitated the accurate categorization of soybean populations into 2 distinct varieties: oval leaf type variety and lanceolate leaf type variety. Finally, dynamic modeling was conducted to identify 5 phenotypic traits associated with the canopy development rate that differed substantially among the classified soybean varieties. The results showed that the developed multimodal image segmentation model RIFSeg-Net for extracting soybean canopy cover from UAV images outperformed traditional deep learning image segmentation networks (precision = 0.94, recall = 0.93, F1-score = 0.93). The proposed method has high practical value in the field of germplasm resource identification. This approach could lead to the use of a practical tool for further genotypic differentiation analysis and the selection of target genes.

GIS-FA: an approach to integrating thematic maps, factor-analytic, and envirotyping for cultivar targeting

KEY MESSAGE

We propose an "enviromics" prediction model for recommending cultivars based on thematic maps aimed at decision-makers. Parsimonious methods that capture genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) in multi-environment trials (MET) are important in breeding programs. Understanding the causes and factors of GEI allows the utilization of genotype adaptations in the target population of environments through environmental features and factor-analytic (FA) models. Here, we present a novel predictive breeding approach called GIS-FA, which integrates geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, FA models, partial least squares (PLS) regression, and enviromics to predict phenotypic performance in untested environments. The GIS-FA approach enables: (i) the prediction of the phenotypic performance of tested genotypes in untested environments, (ii) the selection of the best-ranking genotypes based on their overall performance and stability using the FA selection tools, and (iii) the creation of thematic maps showing overall or pairwise performance and stability for decision-making. We exemplify the usage of the GIS-FA approach using two datasets of rice [Oryza sativa (L.)] and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] in MET spread over tropical areas. In summary, our novel predictive method allows the identification of new breeding scenarios by pinpointing groups of environments where genotypes demonstrate superior predicted performance. It also facilitates and optimizes cultivar recommendations by utilizing thematic maps.

Maize green leaf area index dynamics: genetic basis of a new secondary trait for grain yield in optimal and drought conditions

KEY MESSAGE

Green Leaf Area Index dynamics is a promising secondary trait for grain yield and drought tolerance. Multivariate GWAS is particularly well suited to identify the genetic determinants of the green leaf area index dynamics. Improvement of maize grain yield is impeded by important genotype-environment interactions, especially under drought conditions. The use of secondary traits, that are correlated with yield, more heritable and less prone to genotype-environment interactions, can increase breeding efficiency. Here, we studied the genetic basis of a new secondary trait: the green leaf area index (GLAI) dynamics over the maize life cycle. For this, we used an unmanned aerial vehicle to characterize the GLAI dynamics of a diverse panel in well-watered and water-deficient trials in two years. From the dynamics, we derived 24 traits (slopes, durations, areas under the curve), and showed that six of them were heritable traits representative of the panel diversity. To identify the genetic determinants of GLAI, we compared two genome-wide association approaches: a univariate (single-trait) method and a multivariate (multi-trait) method combining GLAI traits, grain yield, and precocity. The explicit modeling of correlation structure between secondary traits and grain yield in the multivariate mixed model led to 2.5 times more associations detected. A total of 475 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were detected. The genetic architecture of GLAI traits appears less complex than that of yield with stronger-effect QTLs that are more stable between environments. We also showed that a subset of GLAI QTLs explains nearly one fifth of yield variability across a larger environmental network of 11 water-deficient trials. GLAI dynamics is a promising grain yield secondary trait in optimal and drought conditions, and the detected QTLs could help to increase breeding efficiency through a marker-assisted approach.

Environmental context of phenotypic plasticity in flowering time in sorghum and rice

Phenotypic plasticity is an important topic in biology and evolution. However, how to generate broadly applicable insights from individual studies remains a challenge. Here, with flowering time observed from a large geographical region for sorghum and rice genetic populations, we examine the consistency of parameter estimation for reaction norms of genotypes across different subsets of environments and searched for potential strategies to inform the study design. Both sample size and environmental mean range of the subset affected the consistency. The subset with either a large range of environmental mean or a large sample size resulted in genetic parameters consistent with the overall pattern. Furthermore, high accuracy through genomic prediction was obtained for reaction norm parameters of untested genotypes using models built from tested genotypes under the subsets of environments with either a large range or a large sample size. With 1428 and 1674 simulated settings, our analyses suggested that the distribution of environmental index values of a site should be considered in designing experiments. Overall, we showed that environmental context was critical, and considerations should be given to better cover the intended range of the environmental variable. Our findings have implications for the genetic architecture of complex traits, plant-environment interaction, and climate adaptation.

Identification and Analysis of Candidate Genes Associated with Yield Structure Traits and Maize Yield Using Next-Generation Sequencing Technology

The main challenge of agriculture in the 21st century is the continuous increase in food production. In addition to ensuring food security, the goal of modern agriculture is the continued development and production of plant-derived biomaterials. Conventional plant breeding methods do not allow breeders to achieve satisfactory results in obtaining new varieties in a short time. Currently, advanced molecular biology tools play a significant role worldwide, markedly contributing to biological progress. The aim of this study was to identify new markers linked to candidate genes determining grain yield. Next-generation sequencing, gene association, and physical mapping were used to identify markers. An additional goal was to also optimize diagnostic procedures to identify molecular markers on reference materials. As a result of the conducted research, 19 SNP markers significantly associated with yield structure traits in maize were identified. Five of these markers (28629, 28625, 28640, 28649, and 29294) are located within genes that can be considered candidate genes associated with yield traits. For two markers (28639 and 29294), different amplification products were obtained on the electrophorograms. For marker 28629, a specific product of 189 bp was observed for genotypes 1, 4, and 10. For marker 29294, a specific product of 189 bp was observed for genotypes 1 and 10. Both markers can be used for the preliminary selection of well-yielding genotypes.

Leveraging data from the Genomes-to-Fields Initiative to investigate genotype-by-environment interactions in maize in North America

Genotype-by-environment (G×E) interactions can significantly affect crop performance and stability. Investigating G×E requires extensive data sets with diverse cultivars tested over multiple locations and years. The Genomes-to-Fields (G2F) Initiative has tested maize hybrids in more than 130 year-locations in North America since 2014. Here, we curate and expand this data set by generating environmental covariates (using a crop model) for each of the trials. The resulting data set includes DNA genotypes and environmental data linked to more than 70,000 phenotypic records of grain yield and flowering traits for more than 4000 hybrids. We show how this valuable data set can serve as a benchmark in agricultural modeling and prediction, paving the way for countless G×E investigations in maize. We use multivariate analyses to characterize the data set's genetic and environmental structure, study the association of key environmental factors with traits, and provide benchmarks using genomic prediction models.

Accurate prediction of quantitative traits with failed SNP calls in canola and maize

In modern plant breeding, genomic selection is becoming the gold standard to select superior genotypes in large breeding populations that are only partially phenotyped. Many breeding programs commonly rely on single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to capture genome-wide data for selection candidates. For this purpose, SNP arrays with moderate to high marker density represent a robust and cost-effective tool to generate reproducible, easy-to-handle, high-throughput genotype data from large-scale breeding populations. However, SNP arrays are prone to technical errors that lead to failed allele calls. To overcome this problem, failed calls are often imputed, based on the assumption that failed SNP calls are purely technical. However, this ignores the biological causes for failed calls-for example: deletions-and there is increasing evidence that gene presence-absence and other kinds of genome structural variants can play a role in phenotypic expression. Because deletions are frequently not in linkage disequilibrium with their flanking SNPs, permutation of missing SNP calls can potentially obscure valuable marker-trait associations. In this study, we analyze published datasets for canola and maize using four parametric and two machine learning models and demonstrate that failed allele calls in genomic prediction are highly predictive for important agronomic traits. We present two statistical pipelines, based on population structure and linkage disequilibrium, that enable the filtering of failed SNP calls that are likely caused by biological reasons. For the population and trait examined, prediction accuracy based on these filtered failed allele calls was competitive to standard SNP-based prediction, underlying the potential value of missing data in genomic prediction approaches. The combination of SNPs with all failed allele calls or the filtered allele calls did not outperform predictions with only SNP-based prediction due to redundancy in genomic relationship estimates.

Robotized indoor phenotyping allows genomic prediction of adaptive traits in the field

Breeding for resilience to climate change requires considering adaptive traits such as plant architecture, stomatal conductance and growth, beyond the current selection for yield. Robotized indoor phenotyping allows measuring such traits at high throughput for speed breeding, but is often considered as non-relevant for field conditions. Here, we show that maize adaptive traits can be inferred in different fields, based on genotypic values obtained indoor and on environmental conditions in each considered field. The modelling of environmental effects allows translation from indoor to fields, but also from one field to another field. Furthermore, genotypic values of considered traits match between indoor and field conditions. Genomic prediction results in adequate ranking of genotypes for the tested traits, although with lesser precision for elite varieties presenting reduced phenotypic variability. Hence, it distinguishes genotypes with high or low values for adaptive traits, conferring either spender or conservative strategies for water use under future climates.

The metabolomic physics of complex diseases

Human diseases involve metabolic alterations. Metabolomic profiles have served as a vital biomarker for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. However, current approaches can only characterize individual key metabolites, without taking into account the reality that complex diseases are multifactorial, dynamic, heterogeneous, and interdependent. Here, we leverage a statistical physics model to combine all metabolites into bidirectional, signed, and weighted interaction networks and trace how the flow of information from one metabolite to the next causes changes in health state. Viewing a disease outcome as the consequence of complex interactions among its interconnected components (metabolites), we integrate concepts from ecosystem theory and evolutionary game theory to model how the health state-dependent alteration of a metabolite is shaped by its intrinsic properties and through extrinsic influences from its conspecifics. We code intrinsic contributions as nodes and extrinsic contributions as edges into quantitative networks and implement GLMY homology theory to analyze and interpret the topological change of health state from symbiosis to dysbiosis and vice versa. The application of this model to real data allows us to identify several hub metabolites and their interaction webs, which play a part in the formation of inflammatory bowel diseases. The findings by our model could provide important information on drug design to treat these diseases and beyond.

Frost Damage Index: The Antipode of Growing Degree Days

Abiotic stresses such as heat and frost limit plant growth and productivity. Image-based field phenotyping methods allow quantifying not only plant growth but also plant senescence. Winter crops show senescence caused by cold spells, visible as declines in leaf area. We accurately quantified such declines by monitoring changes in canopy cover based on time-resolved high-resolution imagery in the field. Thirty-six winter wheat genotypes were measured in multiple years. A concept termed "frost damage index" (FDI) was developed that, in analogy to growing degree days, summarizes frost events in a cumulative way. The measured sensitivity of genotypes to the FDI correlated with visual scorings commonly used in breeding to assess winter hardiness. The FDI concept could be adapted to other factors such as drought or heat stress. While commonly not considered in plant growth modeling, integrating such degradation processes may be key to improving the prediction of plant performance for future climate scenarios.

Stage-specific genotype-by-environment interactions determine yield components in wheat

In cereal crops, environmental fluctuations affect different physiological processes during various developmental phases associated with the formation of yield components. Because these effects are coupled with cultivar-specific phenology, studies investigating environmental responses in different cultivars can give contradictory results regarding key phases impacting yield performance. To dissect how genotype-by-environment interactions affect grain yield in winter wheat, we estimated the sensitivities of yield components to variation in global radiation, temperature and precipitation in 220 cultivars across 81 time-windows ranging from double ridge to seed desiccation. Environmental sensitivity responses were prominent in the short-term physiological subphases of spike and kernel development, causing phenologically dependent, stage-specific genotype-by-environment interactions. Here we reconcile contradicting findings from previous studies and show previously undetected effects; for example, the positive impact of global radiation on kernel weight during canopy senescence. This deep insight into the three-way interactions between phenology, yield formation and environmental fluctuations provides comprehensive new information for breeding and modelling cereal crops.

Natural plant growth and development achieved in the IPK PhenoSphere by dynamic environment simulation

In plant science, the suboptimal match of growing conditions hampers the transfer of knowledge from controlled environments in glasshouses or climate chambers to field environments. Here we present the PhenoSphere, a plant cultivation infrastructure designed to simulate field-like environments in a reproducible manner. To benchmark the PhenoSphere, the effects on plant growth of weather conditions of a single maize growing season and of an averaged season over three years are compared to those of a standard glasshouse and of four years of field trials. The single season simulation proves superior to the glasshouse and the averaged season in the PhenoSphere: The simulated weather regime of the single season triggers plant growth and development progression very similar to that observed in the field. Hence, the PhenoSphere enables detailed analyses of performance-related trait expression and causal biological mechanisms in plant populations exposed to weather conditions of current and anticipated future climate scenarios.

Haplotype blocks for genomic prediction: a comparative evaluation in multiple crop datasets

In modern plant breeding, genomic selection is becoming the gold standard for selection of superior genotypes. The basis for genomic prediction models is a set of phenotyped lines along with their genotypic profile. With high marker density and linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers, genotype data in breeding populations tends to exhibit considerable redundancy. Therefore, interest is growing in the use of haplotype blocks to overcome redundancy by summarizing co-inherited features. Moreover, haplotype blocks can help to capture local epistasis caused by interacting loci. Here, we compared genomic prediction methods that either used single SNPs or haplotype blocks with regards to their prediction accuracy for important traits in crop datasets. We used four published datasets from canola, maize, wheat and soybean. Different approaches to construct haplotype blocks were compared, including blocks based on LD, physical distance, number of adjacent markers and the algorithms implemented in the software "Haploview" and "HaploBlocker". The tested prediction methods included Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP), Extended GBLUP to account for additive by additive epistasis (EGBLUP), Bayesian LASSO and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) regression. We found improved prediction accuracy in some traits when using haplotype blocks compared to SNP-based predictions, however the magnitude of improvement was very trait- and model-specific. Especially in settings with low marker density, haplotype blocks can improve genomic prediction accuracy. In most cases, physically large haplotype blocks yielded a strong decrease in prediction accuracy. Especially when prediction accuracy varies greatly across different prediction models, prediction based on haplotype blocks can improve prediction accuracy of underperforming models. However, there is no "best" method to build haplotype blocks, since prediction accuracy varied considerably across methods and traits. Hence, criteria used to define haplotype blocks should not be viewed as fixed biological parameters, but rather as hyperparameters that need to be adjusted for every dataset.

Two decades of harnessing standing genetic variation for physiological traits to improve drought tolerance in maize

We review approaches to maize breeding for improved drought tolerance during flowering and grain filling in the central and western US corn belt and place our findings in the context of results from public breeding. Here we show that after two decades of dedicated breeding efforts, the rate of crop improvement under drought increased from 6.2 g m-2 year-1 to 7.5 g m-2 year-1, closing the genetic gain gap with respect to the 8.6 g m-2 year-1 observed under water-sufficient conditions. The improvement relative to the long-term genetic gain was possible by harnessing favourable alleles for physiological traits available in the reference population of genotypes. Experimentation in managed stress environments that maximized the genetic correlation with target environments was key for breeders to identify and select for these alleles. We also show that the embedding of physiological understanding within genomic selection methods via crop growth models can hasten genetic gain under drought. We estimate a prediction accuracy differential (Δr) above current prediction approaches of ~30% (Δr=0.11, r=0.38), which increases with increasing complexity of the trait environment system as estimated by Shannon information theory. We propose this framework to inform breeding strategies for drought stress across geographies and crops.

Plant genome resequencing and population genomics: Current status and future prospects

Advances in DNA sequencing technology have sparked a genomics revolution, driving breakthroughs in plant genetics and crop breeding. Recently, the focus has shifted from cataloging genetic diversity in plants to exploring their functional significance and delivering beneficial alleles for crop improvement. This transformation has been facilitated by the increasing adoption of whole-genome resequencing. In this review, we summarize the current progress of population-based genome resequencing studies and how these studies affect crop breeding. A total of 187 land plants from 163 countries have been resequenced, comprising 54 413 accessions. As part of resequencing efforts 367 traits have been surveyed and 86 genome-wide association studies have been conducted. Economically important crops, particularly cereals, vegetables, and legumes, have dominated the resequencing efforts, leaving a gap in 49 orders, including Lycopodiales, Liliales, Acorales, Austrobaileyales, and Commelinales. The resequenced germplasm is distributed across diverse geographic locations, providing a global perspective on plant genomics. We highlight genes that have been selected during domestication, or associated with agronomic traits, and form a repository of candidate genes for future research and application. Despite the opportunities for cross-species comparative genomics, many population genomic datasets are not accessible, impeding secondary analyses. We call for a more open and collaborative approach to population genomics that promotes data sharing and encourages contribution-based credit policy. The number of plant genome resequencing studies will continue to rise with the decreasing DNA sequencing costs, coupled with advances in analysis and computational technologies. This expansion, in terms of both scale and quality, holds promise for deeper insights into plant trait genetics and breeding design.

Upcycling rice yield trial data using a weather-driven crop growth model

Efficient plant breeding plays a significant role in increasing crop yields and attaining food security under climate change. Screening new cultivars through yield trials in multi-environments has improved crop yields, but the accumulated data from these trials has not been effectively upcycled. We propose a simple method that quantifies cultivar-specific productivity characteristics using two regression coefficients: yield-ability (β) and yield-plasticity (α). The recorded yields of each cultivar are expressed as a unique linear regression in response to the theoretical potential yield (Y_p) calculated by a weather-driven crop growth model, called as the "YpCGM method". We apply this to 72510 independent datasets from yield trials of rice that used 237 cultivars measured at 110 locations in Japan over 38 years. The YpCGM method can upcycle accumulated yield data for use in genetic-gain analysis and genome-wide-association studies to guide future breeding programs for developing new cultivars suitable for the world's changing climate.

Image-based phenomic prediction can provide valuable decision support in wheat breeding

KEY MESSAGE

Genotype-by-environment interactions of secondary traits based on high-throughput field phenotyping are less complex than those of target traits, allowing for a phenomic selection in unreplicated early generation trials. Traditionally, breeders' selection decisions in early generations are largely based on visual observations in the field. With the advent of affordable genome sequencing and high-throughput phenotyping technologies, enhancing breeders' ratings with such information became attractive. In this research, it is hypothesized that G[Formula: see text]E interactions of secondary traits (i.e., growth dynamics' traits) are less complex than those of related target traits (e.g., yield). Thus, phenomic selection (PS) may allow selecting for genotypes with beneficial response-pattern in a defined population of environments. A set of 45 winter wheat varieties was grown at 5 year-sites and analyzed with linear and factor-analytic (FA) mixed models to estimate G[Formula: see text]E interactions of secondary and target traits. The dynamic development of drone-derived plant height, leaf area and tiller density estimations was used to estimate the timing of key stages, quantities at defined time points and temperature dose-response curve parameters. Most of these secondary traits and grain protein content showed little G[Formula: see text]E interactions. In contrast, the modeling of G[Formula: see text]E for yield required a FA model with two factors. A trained PS model predicted overall yield performance, yield stability and grain protein content with correlations of 0.43, 0.30 and 0.34. While these accuracies are modest and do not outperform well-trained GS models, PS additionally provided insights into the physiological basis of target traits. An ideotype was identified that potentially avoids the negative pleiotropic effects between yield and protein content.

A conceptual framework for the dynamic modeling of time-resolved phenotypes for sets of genotype-environment-management combinations: a model library

Introduction

Dynamic crop growth models are an important tool to predict complex traits, like crop yield, for modern and future genotypes in their current and evolving environments, as those occurring under climate change. Phenotypic traits are the result of interactions between genetic, environmental, and management factors, and dynamic models are designed to generate the interactions producing phenotypic changes over the growing season. Crop phenotype data are becoming increasingly available at various levels of granularity, both spatially (landscape) and temporally (longitudinal, time-series) from proximal and remote sensing technologies.

Methods

Here we propose four phenomenological process models of limited complexity based on differential equations for a coarse description of focal crop traits and environmental conditions during the growing season. Each of these models defines interactions between environmental drivers and crop growth (logistic growth, with implicit growth restriction, or explicit restriction by irradiance, temperature, or water availability) as a minimal set of constraints without resorting to strongly mechanistic interpretations of the parameters. Differences between individual genotypes are conceptualized as differences in crop growth parameter values.

Results

We demonstrate the utility of such low-complexity models with few parameters by fitting them to longitudinal datasets from the simulation platform APSIM-Wheat involving in silico biomass development of 199 genotypes and data of environmental variables over the course of the growing season at four Australian locations over 31 years. While each of the four models fits well to particular combinations of genotype and trial, none of them provides the best fit across the full set of genotypes by trials because different environmental drivers will limit crop growth in different trials and genotypes in any specific trial will not necessarily experience the same environmental limitation.

Discussion

A combination of low-complexity phenomenological models covering a small set of major limiting environmental factors may be a useful forecasting tool for crop growth under genotypic and environmental variation.

A successive time-to-event model of phyllochron dynamics for hypothesis testing: application to the analysis of genetic and environmental effects in maize

BACKGROUND

The time between the appearance of successive leaves, or phyllochron, characterizes the vegetative development of annual plants. Hypothesis testing models, which allow the comparison of phyllochrons between genetic groups and/or environmental conditions, are usually based on regression of thermal time on the number of leaves; most of the time a constant leaf appearance rate is assumed. However regression models ignore auto-correlation of the leaf number process and may lead to biased testing procedures. Moreover, the hypothesis of constant leaf appearance rate may be too restrictive.

METHODS

We propose a stochastic process model in which emergence of new leaves is considered to result from successive time-to-events. This model provides a flexible and more accurate modeling as well as unbiased testing procedures. It was applied to an original maize dataset collected in the field over three years on plants originating from two divergent selection experiments for flowering time in two maize inbred lines.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

We showed that the main differences in phyllochron were not observed between selection populations but rather between ancestral lines, years of experimentation and leaf ranks. Our results highlight a strong departure from the assumption of a constant leaf appearance rate over a season which could be related to climate variations, even if the impact of individual climate variables could not be clearly determined.

Partitioning the forms of genotype-by-environment interaction in the reaction norm analysis of stability

KEY MESSAGE

The reaction norm analysis of stability can be enhanced by partitioning the contribution of different types of G × E to the variation in slope. The slope of regression in a reaction norm model, where the performance of a genotype is regressed over an environmental covariable, is often used as a measure of stability of genotype performance. This method could be developed further by partitioning variation in the slope of regression into the two sources of genotype-by-environment interaction (G × E) which cause it: scale-type G × E (heterogeneity of variance) and rank-type G × E (heterogeneity of correlation). Because the two types of G × E have very different properties, separating their effect would enable a clearer understanding of stability. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate two methods which seek to achieve this in reaction norm models. Reaction norm models were fit to yield data from a multi-environment trial in Barley (Hordeum vulgare), with the adjusted mean yield from each environment used as the environmental covariable. Stability estimated from factor-analytic models, which can disentangle the two types of G × E and estimate stability based on rank-type G × E, was used for comparison. Adjusting the reaction norm slope to account for scale-type G × E using a genetic regression more than tripled the correlation with factor-analytic estimates of stability (0.24-0.26 to 0.80-0.85), indicating that it removed variation in the reaction norm slope that originated from scale-type G × E. A standardisation procedure had a more modest increase (055-0.59) but could be useful when curvilinear reaction norms are required. Analyses which use reaction norms to explore the stability of genotypes could gain additional insight into the mechanisms of stability by applying the methods outlined in this study.

Genomics combined with UAS data enhances prediction of grain yield in winter wheat

With the human population continuing to increase worldwide, there is pressure to employ novel technologies to increase genetic gain in plant breeding programs that contribute to nutrition and food security. Genomic selection (GS) has the potential to increase genetic gain because it can accelerate the breeding cycle, increase the accuracy of estimated breeding values, and improve selection accuracy. However, with recent advances in high throughput phenotyping in plant breeding programs, the opportunity to integrate genomic and phenotypic data to increase prediction accuracy is present. In this paper, we applied GS to winter wheat data integrating two types of inputs: genomic and phenotypic. We observed the best accuracy of grain yield when combining both genomic and phenotypic inputs, while only using genomic information fared poorly. In general, the predictions with only phenotypic information were very competitive to using both sources of information, and in many cases using only phenotypic information provided the best accuracy. Our results are encouraging because it is clear we can enhance the prediction accuracy of GS by integrating high quality phenotypic inputs in the models.

The Use of DArTseq Technology to Identify Markers Related to the Heterosis Effects in Selected Traits in Maize

Spectacular scientific advances in the area of molecular biology and the development of modern biotechnological tools have had a significant impact on the development of maize heterosis breeding. One technology based on next-generation sequencing is DArTseq. The plant material used for the research consisted of 13 hybrids resulting from the crossing of inbred maize lines. A two-year field experiment was established at two Polish breeding stations: Smolice and Łagiewniki. Nine quantitative traits were observed: cob length, cob diameter, core length, core diameter, number of rows of grain, number of grains in a row, mass of grain from the cob, weight of one thousand grains, and yield. The isolated DNA was subjected to DArTseq genotyping. Association mapping was performed using a method based on the mixed linear model. A total of 81602 molecular markers (28571 SNPs and 53031 SilicoDArTs) were obtained as a result of next-generation sequencing. Out of 81602, 15409 (13850 SNPs and 1559 SilicoDArTs) were selected for association analysis. The 105 molecular markers (8 SNPs and 97 SilicoDArTs) were associated with the heterosis effect of at least one trait in at least one environment. A total of 186 effects were observed. The number of statistically significant relationships between the molecular marker and heterosis effect varied from 8 (for cob length) and 9 (for yield) to 42 (for the number of rows of grain). Of particular note were three markers (2490222, 2548691 and 7058267), which were significant in 17, 8 and 6 cases, respectively. Two of them (2490222 and 7058267) were associated with the heterosis effects of yield in three of the four environments.

Extending the breeder's equation to take aim at the target population of environments

A major focus for genomic prediction has been on improving trait prediction accuracy using combinations of algorithms and the training data sets available from plant breeding multi-environment trials (METs). Any improvements in prediction accuracy are viewed as pathways to improve traits in the reference population of genotypes and product performance in the target population of environments (TPE). To realize these breeding outcomes there must be a positive MET-TPE relationship that provides consistency between the trait variation expressed within the MET data sets that are used to train the genome-to-phenome (G2P) model for applications of genomic prediction and the realized trait and performance differences in the TPE for the genotypes that are the prediction targets. The strength of this MET-TPE relationship is usually assumed to be high, however it is rarely quantified. To date investigations of genomic prediction methods have focused on improving prediction accuracy within MET training data sets, with less attention to quantifying the structure of the TPE and the MET-TPE relationship and their potential impact on training the G2P model for applications of genomic prediction to accelerate breeding outcomes for the on-farm TPE. We extend the breeder's equation and use an example to demonstrate the importance of the MET-TPE relationship as a key component for the design of genomic prediction methods to realize improved rates of genetic gain for the target yield, quality, stress tolerance and yield stability traits in the on-farm TPE.

Multi-environment Genomic Selection in Rice Elite Breeding Lines

BACKGROUND

Assessing the performance of elite lines in target environments is essential for breeding programs to select the most relevant genotypes. One of the main complexities in this task resides in accounting for the genotype by environment interactions. Genomic prediction models that integrate information from multi-environment trials and environmental covariates can be efficient tools in this context. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive ability of different genomic prediction models to optimize the use of multi-environment information. We used 111 elite breeding lines representing the diversity of the international rice research institute breeding program for irrigated ecosystems. The lines were evaluated for three traits (days to flowering, plant height, and grain yield) in 15 environments in Asia and Africa and genotyped with 882 SNP markers. We evaluated the efficiency of genomic prediction to predict untested environments using seven multi-environment models and three cross-validation scenarios.

RESULTS

The elite lines were found to belong to the indica group and more specifically the indica-1B subgroup which gathered improved material originating from the Green Revolution. Phenotypic correlations between environments were high for days to flowering and plant height (33% and 54% of pairwise correlation greater than 0.5) but low for grain yield (lower than 0.2 in most cases). Clustering analyses based on environmental covariates separated Asia's and Africa's environments into different clusters or subclusters. The predictive abilities ranged from 0.06 to 0.79 for days to flowering, 0.25-0.88 for plant height, and - 0.29-0.62 for grain yield. We found that models integrating genotype-by-environment interaction effects did not perform significantly better than models integrating only main effects (genotypes and environment or environmental covariates). The different cross-validation scenarios showed that, in most cases, the use of all available environments gave better results than a subset.

CONCLUSION

Multi-environment genomic prediction models with main effects were sufficient for accurate phenotypic prediction of elite lines in targeted environments. These results will help refine the testing strategy to update the genomic prediction models to improve predictive ability.

Machine learning for predicting phenotype from genotype and environment

Predicting phenotype with genomic and environmental information is critically needed and challenging. Machine learning methods have emerged as powerful tools to make accurate predictions from large and complex biological data. Here, we review the progress of phenotype prediction models enabled or improved by machine learning methods. We categorized the applications into three scenarios: prediction with genotypic information, with environmental information, and with both. In each scenario, we illustrate the practicality of prediction models, the advantages of machine learning, and the challenges of modeling complex relationships. We discuss the promising potential of leveraging machine learning and genetics theories to develop models that can predict phenotype and also interpret the biological consequences of changes in genotype and environment.

Crop genomic selection with deep learning and environmental data: A survey

Machine learning techniques for crop genomic selections, especially for single-environment plants, are well-developed. These machine learning models, which use dense genome-wide markers to predict phenotype, routinely perform well on single-environment datasets, especially for complex traits affected by multiple markers. On the other hand, machine learning models for predicting crop phenotype, especially deep learning models, using datasets that span different environmental conditions, have only recently emerged. Models that can accept heterogeneous data sources, such as temperature, soil conditions and precipitation, are natural choices for modeling GxE in multi-environment prediction. Here, we review emerging deep learning techniques that incorporate environmental data directly into genomic selection models.

Breeding crops for drought-affected environments and improved climate resilience

Breeding climate-resilient crops with improved levels of abiotic and biotic stress resistance as a response to climate change presents both opportunities and challenges. Applying the framework of the "breeder's equation," which is used to predict the response to selection for a breeding program cycle, we review methodologies and strategies that have been used to successfully breed crops with improved levels of drought resistance, where the target population of environments (TPEs) is a spatially and temporally heterogeneous mixture of drought-affected and favorable (water-sufficient) environments. Long-term improvement of temperate maize for the US corn belt is used as a case study and compared with progress for other crops and geographies. Integration of trait information across scales, from genomes to ecosystems, is needed to accurately predict yield outcomes for genotypes within the current and future TPEs. This will require transdisciplinary teams to explore, identify, and exploit novel opportunities to accelerate breeding program outcomes; both improved germplasm resources and improved products (cultivars, hybrids, clones, and populations) that outperform and replace the products in use by farmers, in combination with modified agronomic management strategies suited to their local environments.

Application of Internet of Things to Agriculture-The LQ-FieldPheno Platform: A High-Throughput Platform for Obtaining Crop Phenotypes in Field

The lack of efficient crop phenotypic measurement methods has become a bottleneck in the field of breeding and precision cultivation. However, high-throughput and accurate phenotypic measurement could accelerate the breeding and improve the existing cultivation management technology. In view of this, this paper introduces a high-throughput crop phenotype measurement platform named the LQ-FieldPheno, which was developed by China National Agricultural Information Engineering Technology Research Centre. The proposed platform represents a mobile phenotypic high-throughput automatic acquisition system based on a field track platform, which introduces the Internet of Things (IoT) into agricultural breeding. The proposed platform uses the crop phenotype multisensor central imaging unit as a core and integrates different types of equipment, including an automatic control system, upward field track, intelligent navigation vehicle, and environmental sensors. Furthermore, it combines an RGB camera, a 6-band multispectral camera, a thermal infrared camera, a 3-dimensional laser radar, and a deep camera. Special software is developed to control motions and sensors and to design run lines. Using wireless sensor networks and mobile communication wireless networks of IoT, the proposed system can obtain phenotypic information about plants in their growth period with a high-throughput, automatic, and high time sequence. Moreover, the LQ-FieldPheno has the characteristics of multiple data acquisition, vital timeliness, remarkable expansibility, high-cost performance, and flexible customization. The LQ-FieldPheno has been operated in the 2020 maize growing season, and the collected point cloud data are used to estimate the maize plant height. Compared with the traditional crop phenotypic measurement technology, the LQ-FieldPheno has the advantage of continuously and synchronously obtaining multisource phenotypic data at different growth stages and extracting different plant parameters. The proposed platform could contribute to the research of crop phenotype, remote sensing, agronomy, and related disciplines.

Envirome-wide associations enhance multi-year genome-based prediction of historical wheat breeding data

Linking high-throughput environmental data (enviromics) to genomic prediction (GP) is a cost-effective strategy for increasing selection intensity under genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). This study developed a data-driven approach based on Environment-Phenotype Association (EPA) aimed at recycling important G × E information from historical breeding data. EPA was developed in two applications: (1) scanning a secondary source of genetic variation, weighted from the shared reaction-norms of past-evaluated genotypes and (2) pinpointing weights of the similarity among trial-sites (locations), given the historical impact of each envirotyping data variable for a given site. These results were then used as a dimensionality reduction strategy, integrating historical data to feed multi-environment GP models, which led to the development of four new G × E kernels considering genomics, enviromics, and EPA outcomes. The wheat trial data used included 36 locations, 8 years, and three target populations of environments (TPEs) in India. Four prediction scenarios and six kernel models within/across TPEs were tested. Our results suggest that the conventional GBLUP, without enviromic data or when omitting EPA, is inefficient in predicting the performance of wheat lines in future years. Nevertheless, when EPA was introduced as an intermediary learning step to reduce the dimensionality of the G × E kernels while connecting phenotypic and environmental-wide variation, a significant enhancement of G × E prediction accuracy was evident. EPA revealed that the effect of seasonality makes strategies such as "covariable selection" unfeasible because G × E is year-germplasm specific. We propose that the EPA effectively serves as a "reinforcement learner" algorithm capable of uncovering the effect of seasonality over the reaction-norms, with the benefits of better forecasting the similarities between past and future trialing sites. EPA combines the benefits of dimensionality reduction while reducing the uncertainty of genotype-by-year predictions and increasing the resolution of GP for the genotype-specific level.

Systematic Evaluation of Genomic Prediction Algorithms for Genomic Prediction and Breeding of Aquatic Animals

The extensive use of genomic selection (GS) in livestock and crops has led to a series of genomic-prediction (GP) algorithms despite the lack of a single algorithm that can suit all the species and traits. A systematic evaluation of available GP algorithms is thus necessary to identify the optimal GP algorithm for selective breeding in aquaculture species. In this study, a systematic comparison of ten GP algorithms, including both traditional and machine-learning algorithms, was conducted using publicly available genotype and phenotype data of eight traits, including weight and disease resistance traits, from five aquaculture species. The study aimed to provide insights into the optimal algorithm for GP in aquatic animals. Notably, no algorithm showed the best performance in all traits. However, reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and support-vector machine (SVM) algorithms achieved relatively high prediction accuracies in most of the tested traits. Bayes A and random forest (RF) better prevented noise interference in the phenotypic data compared to the other algorithms. The prediction performances of GP algorithms in the Crassostrea gigas dataset were improved by using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to select subsets of significant SNPs. An R package, "ASGS," which integrates the commonly used traditional and machine-learning algorithms for efficiently finding the optimal algorithm, was developed to assist the application of genomic selection breeding of aquaculture species. This work provides valuable information and a tool for optimizing algorithms for GP, aiding genetic breeding in aquaculture species.

Smart breeding driven by big data, artificial intelligence, and integrated genomic-enviromic prediction

The first paradigm of plant breeding involves direct selection-based phenotypic observation, followed by predictive breeding using statistical models for quantitative traits constructed based on genetic experimental design and, more recently, by incorporation of molecular marker genotypes. However, plant performance or phenotype (P) is determined by the combined effects of genotype (G), envirotype (E), and genotype by environment interaction (GEI). Phenotypes can be predicted more precisely by training a model using data collected from multiple sources, including spatiotemporal omics (genomics, phenomics, and enviromics across time and space). Integration of 3D information profiles (G-P-E), each with multidimensionality, provides predictive breeding with both tremendous opportunities and great challenges. Here, we first review innovative technologies for predictive breeding. We then evaluate multidimensional information profiles that can be integrated with a predictive breeding strategy, particularly envirotypic data, which have largely been neglected in data collection and are nearly untouched in model construction. We propose a smart breeding scheme, integrated genomic-enviromic prediction (iGEP), as an extension of genomic prediction, using integrated multiomics information, big data technology, and artificial intelligence (mainly focused on machine and deep learning). We discuss how to implement iGEP, including spatiotemporal models, environmental indices, factorial and spatiotemporal structure of plant breeding data, and cross-species prediction. A strategy is then proposed for prediction-based crop redesign at both the macro (individual, population, and species) and micro (gene, metabolism, and network) scales. Finally, we provide perspectives on translating smart breeding into genetic gain through integrative breeding platforms and open-source breeding initiatives. We call for coordinated efforts in smart breeding through iGEP, institutional partnerships, and innovative technological support.

Combining datasets for maize root seedling traits increases the power of GWAS and genomic prediction accuracies

The identification of genomic regions associated with root traits and the genomic prediction of untested genotypes can increase the rate of genetic gain in maize breeding programs targeting roots traits. Here, we combined two maize association panels with different genetic backgrounds to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with root traits, and used a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and to assess the potential of genomic prediction for these traits in maize. For this, we evaluated 377 lines from the Ames panel and 302 from the Backcrossed Germplasm Enhancement of Maize (BGEM) panel in a combined panel of 679 lines. The lines were genotyped with 232 460 SNPs, and four root traits were collected from 14-day-old seedlings. We identified 30 SNPs significantly associated with root traits in the combined panel, whereas only two and six SNPs were detected in the Ames and BGEM panels, respectively. Those 38 SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium with 35 candidate genes. In addition, we found higher prediction accuracy in the combined panel than in the Ames or BGEM panel. We conclude that combining association panels appears to be a useful strategy to identify candidate genes associated with root traits in maize and improve the efficiency of genomic prediction.

Radiation use efficiency increased over a century of maize (Zea mays L.) breeding in the US corn belt

In the absence of stress, crop growth depends on the amount of light intercepted by the canopy and the conversion efficiency [radiation use efficiency (RUE)]. This study tested the hypothesis that long-term genetic gain for grain yield was partly due to improved RUE. The hypothesis was tested using 30 elite maize hybrids commercialized in the US corn belt between 1930 and 2017. Crops grown under irrigation showed that pre-flowering crop growth increased at a rate of 0.11 g m-2 year-1, while light interception remained constant. Therefore, RUE increased at a rate of 0.0049 g MJ-1 year-1, translating into an average of 3 g m-2 year-1 of grain yield over 100 years of maize breeding. Considering that the harvest index has not changed for crops grown at optimal density for the hybrid, the cumulative RUE increase over the history of commercial maize breeding in the USA can account for ~32% of the documented yield trend for maize grown in the central US corn belt. The remaining RUE gap between this study and theoretical maximum values suggests that a yield improvement of a similar magnitude could be achieved by further increasing RUE.

Earbox, an open tool for high-throughput measurement of the spatial organization of maize ears and inference of novel traits

BACKGROUND

Characterizing plant genetic resources and their response to the environment through accurate measurement of relevant traits is crucial to genetics and breeding. Spatial organization of the maize ear provides insights into the response of grain yield to environmental conditions. Current automated methods for phenotyping the maize ear do not capture these spatial features.

RESULTS

We developed EARBOX, a low-cost, open-source system for automated phenotyping of maize ears. EARBOX integrates open-source technologies for both software and hardware that facilitate its deployment and improvement for specific research questions. The imaging platform consists of a customized box in which ears are repeatedly imaged as they rotate via motorized rollers. With deep learning based on convolutional neural networks, the image analysis algorithm uses a two-step procedure: ear-specific grain masks are first created and subsequently used to extract a range of trait data per ear, including ear shape and dimensions, the number of grains and their spatial organisation, and the distribution of grain dimensions along the ear. The reliability of each trait was validated against ground-truth data from manual measurements. Moreover, EARBOX derives novel traits, inaccessible through conventional methods, especially the distribution of grain dimensions along grain cohorts, relevant for ear morphogenesis, and the distribution of abortion frequency along the ear, relevant for plant response to stress, especially soil water deficit.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed system provides robust and accurate measurements of maize ear traits including spatial features. Future developments include grain type and colour categorisation. This method opens avenues for high-throughput genetic or functional studies in the context of plant adaptation to a changing environment.

A joint learning approach for genomic prediction in polyploid grasses

Poaceae, among the most abundant plant families, includes many economically important polyploid species, such as forage grasses and sugarcane (Saccharum spp.). These species have elevated genomic complexities and limited genetic resources, hindering the application of marker-assisted selection strategies. Currently, the most promising approach for increasing genetic gains in plant breeding is genomic selection. However, due to the polyploidy nature of these polyploid species, more accurate models for incorporating genomic selection into breeding schemes are needed. This study aims to develop a machine learning method by using a joint learning approach to predict complex traits from genotypic data. Biparental populations of sugarcane and two species of forage grasses (Urochloa decumbens, Megathyrsus maximus) were genotyped, and several quantitative traits were measured. High-quality markers were used to predict several traits in different cross-validation scenarios. By combining classification and regression strategies, we developed a predictive system with promising results. Compared with traditional genomic prediction methods, the proposed strategy achieved accuracy improvements exceeding 50%. Our results suggest that the developed methodology could be implemented in breeding programs, helping reduce breeding cycles and increase genetic gains.

Physiological adaptive traits are a potential allele reservoir for maize genetic progress under challenging conditions

Combined phenomic and genomic approaches are required to evaluate the margin of progress of breeding strategies. Here, we analyze 65 years of genetic progress in maize yield, which was similar (101 kg ha^-1 year^-1) across most frequent environmental scenarios in the European growing area. Yield gains were linked to physiologically simple traits (plant phenology and architecture) which indirectly affected reproductive development and light interception in all studied environments, marked by significant genomic signatures of selection. Conversely, studied physiological processes involved in stress adaptation remained phenotypically unchanged (e.g. stomatal conductance and growth sensitivity to drought) and showed no signatures of selection. By selecting for yield, breeders indirectly selected traits with stable effects on yield, but not physiological traits whose effects on yield can be positive or negative depending on environmental conditions. Because yield stability under climate change is desirable, novel breeding strategies may be needed for exploiting alleles governing physiological adaptive traits.

Identification of environment types and adaptation zones with self-organizing maps; applications to sunflower multi-environment data in Europe

We evaluate self-organizing maps (SOM) to identify adaptation zones and visualize multi-environment genotypic responses. We apply SOM to multiple traits and crop growth model output of large-scale European sunflower data. Genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E) complicate the selection of well-adapted varieties. A possible solution is to group trial locations into adaptation zones with G × E occurring mainly between zones. By selecting for good performance inside those zones, response to selection is increased. In this paper, we present a two-step procedure to identify adaptation zones that starts from a self-organizing map (SOM). In the SOM, trials across locations and years are assigned to groups, called units, that are organized on a two-dimensional grid. Units that are further apart contain more distinct trials. In an iterative process of reweighting trial contributions to units, the grid configuration is learnt simultaneously with the trial assignment to units. An aggregation of the units in the SOM by hierarchical clustering then produces environment types, i.e. trials with similar growing conditions. Adaptation zones can subsequently be identified by grouping trial locations with similar distributions of environment types across years. For the construction of SOMs, multiple data types can be combined. We compared environment types and adaptation zones obtained for European sunflower from quantitative traits like yield, oil content, phenology and disease scores with those obtained from environmental indices calculated with the crop growth model Sunflo. We also show how results are affected by input data organization and user-defined weights for genotypes and traits. Adaptation zones for European sunflower as identified by our SOM-based strategy captured substantial genotype-by-location interaction and pointed to trials in Spain, Turkey and South Bulgaria as inducing different genotypic responses.

Effects of insularity on genetic diversity within and among natural populations

We conducted a quantitative literature review of genetic diversity (GD) within and among populations in relation to categorical population size and isolation (together referred to as “insularity”). Using populations from within the same studies, we were able to control for between‐study variation in methodology, as well as demographic and life histories of focal species. Contrary to typical expectations, insularity had relatively minor effects on GD within and among populations, which points to the more important role of other factors in shaping evolutionary processes. Such effects of insularity were sometimes seen—particularly in study systems where GD was already high overall. That is, insularity influenced GD in a study system when GD was high even in non‐insular populations of the same study system—suggesting an important role for the “scope” of influences on GD. These conclusions were more robust for within population GD versus among population GD, although several biases might underlie this difference. Overall, our findings indicate that population‐level genetic assumptions need to be tested rather than assumed in nature, particularly for topics underlying current conservation management practices.

Genomic prediction of cotton fibre quality and yield traits using Bayesian regression methods

Genomic selection or genomic prediction (GP) has increasingly become an important molecular breeding technology for crop improvement. GP aims to utilise genome-wide marker data to predict genomic breeding value for traits of economic importance. Though GP studies have been widely conducted in various crop species such as wheat and maize, its application in cotton, an essential renewable textile fibre crop, is still significantly underdeveloped. We aim to develop a new GP-based breeding system that can improve the efficiency of our cotton breeding program. This article presents a GP study on cotton fibre quality and yield traits using 1385 breeding lines from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) cotton breeding program which were genotyped using a high-density SNP chip that generated 12,296 informative SNPs. The aim of this study was twofold: (1) to identify the models and data sources (i.e. genomic and pedigree) that produce the highest prediction accuracies; and (2) to assess the effectiveness of GP as a selection tool in the CSIRO cotton breeding program. The prediction analyses were conducted under various scenarios using different Bayesian predictive models. Results highlighted that the model combining genomic and pedigree information resulted in the best cross validated prediction accuracies: 0.76 for fibre length, 0.65 for fibre strength, and 0.64 for lint yield. Overall, this work represents the largest scale genomic selection studies based on cotton breeding trial data. Prediction accuracies reported in our study indicate the potential of GP as a breeding tool for cotton. The study highlighted the importance of incorporating pedigree and environmental factors in GP models to optimise the prediction performance.

Economical Productivity of Maize Genotypes under Different Herbicides Application in Two Contrasting Climatic Conditions

Maize ranks first among worldwide production and an important source of human and animal feed. Its production can be affected by management practices and climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate stability of yield and hundred grains weight of six maize genotypes during two growing seasons at two locations, subjected to four different treatments: T1 treatment—without herbicide, Control; T2 treatment—active substance Nicosulfuron and Motivell commercial preparation; T3 treatment—active substance Rimsulfuron and Tarot; and, T4 treatment—active substance Forasulfuron and Equip. Additive main effects and multiplicative interaction—AMMI model and genotype × environment interaction—GGE biplot were used to estimate GEI—genotype by environment interaction. The results showed that the influence of genotype (G), year (Y), locality (L), treatment (T) and all interaction on hundred grains weight were significant. The share of genotypes in the total phenotypic variance was 64.70%, while the share in total interaction was 26.88%. The share of IPCA1 in terms of G × T interaction was 50.6%, while share of IPCA2 was 44.74%, which comprised together 94.80% of interaction. The first IPCA1 axis showed high share in the total interaction, which indicates out significance of genotype in total variation and interaction, while high level of IPCA2 indicates a significant treatment effect. Genotype L-6 had the same mass of 100 grains (37.96 g) during both years of testing, while genotype L-1, with 4.46 g, had the largest difference between years. This clearly indicates the influence of genotype but also stress under the influence of sulfonylureas and environmental factors. The maize genotype with the highest values of hundred grains weight, L-5 and L-6, expressed the highest values of grain yield (4665 kg ha−1 and 4445 kg ha−1).

Leveraging probability concepts for cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials

We propose using probability concepts from Bayesian models to leverage a more informed decision-making process toward cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials. Statistical models that capture the phenotypic plasticity of a genotype across environments are crucial in plant breeding programs to potentially identify parents, generate offspring, and obtain highly productive genotypes for target environments. In this study, our aim is to leverage concepts of Bayesian models and probability methods of stability analysis to untangle genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). The proposed method employs the posterior distribution obtained with the No-U-Turn sampler algorithm to get Hamiltonian Monte Carlo estimates of adaptation and stability probabilities. We applied the proposed models in two empirical tropical datasets. Our findings provide a basis to enhance our ability to consider the uncertainty of cultivar recommendation for global or specific adaptation. We further demonstrate that probability methods of stability analysis in a Bayesian framework are a powerful tool for unraveling GEI given a defined intensity of selection that results in a more informed decision-making process toward cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials.

Target-oriented prioritization: targeted selection strategy by integrating organismal and molecular traits through predictive analytics in breeding

Genomic prediction in crop breeding is hindered by modeling on limited phenotypic traits. We propose an integrative multi-trait breeding strategy via machine learning algorithm, target-oriented prioritization (TOP). Using a large hybrid maize population, we demonstrate that the accuracy for identifying a candidate that is phenotypically closest to an ideotype, or target variety, achieves up to 91%. The strength of TOP is enhanced when omics level traits are included. We show that TOP enables selection of inbreds or hybrids that outperform existing commercial varieties. It improves multiple traits and accurately identifies improved candidates for new varieties, which will greatly influence breeding.

Improving genomic predictions with inbreeding and nonadditive effects in two admixed maize hybrid populations in single and multienvironment contexts

Genetic admixture, resulting from the recombination between structural groups, is frequently encountered in breeding populations. In hybrid breeding, crossing admixed lines can generate substantial nonadditive genetic variance and contrasted levels of inbreeding which can impact trait variation. This study aimed at testing recent methodological developments for the modeling of inbreeding and nonadditive effects in order to increase prediction accuracy in admixed populations. Using two maize (Zea mays L.) populations of hybrids admixed between dent and flint heterotic groups, we compared a suite of five genomic prediction models incorporating (or not) parameters accounting for inbreeding and nonadditive effects with the natural and orthogonal interaction approach in single and multienvironment contexts. In both populations, variance decompositions showed the strong impact of inbreeding on plant yield, height, and flowering time which was supported by the superiority of prediction models incorporating this effect (+0.038 in predictive ability for mean yield). In most cases dominance variance was reduced when inbreeding was accounted for. The model including additivity, dominance, epistasis, and inbreeding effects appeared to be the most robust for prediction across traits and populations (+0.054 in predictive ability for mean yield). In a multienvironment context, we found that the inclusion of nonadditive and inbreeding effects was advantageous when predicting hybrids not yet observed in any environment. Overall, comparing variance decompositions was helpful to guide model selection for genomic prediction. Finally, we recommend the use of models including inbreeding and nonadditive parameters following the natural and orthogonal interaction approach to increase prediction accuracy in admixed populations.