Effective thresholds for reporting suspicions and improve early detection of avian influenza outbreaks in layer chickens

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Wind-Supported Transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus to Dutch Poultry Farms via Fecal Particles from Infected Wild Birds in the Environment

A quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability that the aerosolization of fecal droppings from wild birds in the vicinity of poultry farms would result in the infection of indoor-housed poultry with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) in the Netherlands. Model input parameters were sourced from the scientific literature and experimental data. The availability of data was diverse across input parameters, and especially parameters on the aerosolization of fecal droppings, survival of HPAIv and dispersal of aerosols were uncertain. Model results indicated that the daily probability of infection of a single poultry farm is very low, with a median value of 7.5 × 10-9. Accounting for the total number of poultry farms and the length of the bird-flu season, the median overall probability of at least one HPAIv-infected poultry farm during the bird-flu season is 2.2 × 10-3 (approximately once every 455 years). This is an overall estimate, averaged over different farm types, virus strains and wild bird species, and results indicate that uncertainty is relatively high. Based on these model results, we conclude that it is unlikely that this introduction route plays an important role in the occurrence of HPAIv outbreaks in indoor-housed poultry.

Vaccination of poultry against highly pathogenic avian influenza - Part 2. Surveillance and mitigation measures

Selecting appropriate diagnostic methods that take account of the type of vaccine used is important when implementing a vaccination programme against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). If vaccination is effective, a decreased viral load is expected in the samples used for diagnosis, making molecular methods with high sensitivity the best choice. Although serological methods can be reasonably sensitive, they may produce results that are difficult to interpret. In addition to routine molecular monitoring, it is recommended to conduct viral isolation, genetic sequencing and phenotypic characterisation of any HPAI virus detected in vaccinated flocks to detect escape mutants early. Following emergency vaccination, various surveillance options based on virological testing of dead birds ('bucket sampling') at defined intervals were assessed to be effective for early detection of HPAIV and prove disease freedom in vaccinated populations. For ducks, virological or serological testing of live birds was assessed as an effective strategy. This surveillance could be also applied in the peri-vaccination zone on vaccinated establishments, while maintaining passive surveillance in unvaccinated chicken layers and turkeys, and weekly bucket sampling in unvaccinated ducks. To demonstrate disease freedom with > 99% confidence and to detect HPAI virus sufficiently early following preventive vaccination, monthly virological testing of all dead birds up to 15 per flock, coupled with passive surveillance in both vaccinated and unvaccinated flocks, is recommended. Reducing the sampling intervals increases the sensitivity of early detection up to 100%. To enable the safe movement of vaccinated poultry during emergency vaccination, laboratory examinations in the 72 h prior to the movement can be considered as a risk mitigation measure, in addition to clinical inspection; sampling results from existing surveillance activities carried out in these 72 h could be used. In this Opinion, several schemes are recommended to enable the safe movement of vaccinated poultry following preventive vaccination.

Comparison of the Clinical Manifestation of HPAI H5Nx in Different Poultry Types in the Netherlands, 2014-2022

This study describes clinical manifestations of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, H5N8 and H5N6 outbreaks between 2014 and 2018 and 2020 and 2022 in the Netherlands for different poultry types and age groups. Adult duck (breeder) farms and juvenile chicken (broiler and laying pullet) farms were not diagnosed before 2020. Outbreaks in ducks decreased in 2020-2022 vs. 2014-2018, but increased for meat-type poultry. Neurological, locomotor and reproductive tract signs were often observed in ducks, whereas laying- and meat-type poultry more often showed mucosal membrane and skin signs, including cyanosis and hemorrhagic conjunctiva. Juveniles (chickens and ducks) showed neurological and locomotor signs more often than adults. Diarrhea occurred more often in adult chickens and juvenile ducks. Mortality increased exponentially within four days before notification in chickens and ducks, with a more fluctuating trend in ducks and meat-type poultry than in layers. For ducks, a mortality ratio (MR) > 3, compared to the average mortality of the previous week, was reached less often than in chickens. A lower percentage of laying flocks with MR > 3 was found for 2020-2022 vs. 2014-2018, but without significant differences in clinical signs. This study provides a basis for improvements in mortality- and clinical-sign-based early warning criteria, especially for juvenile chickens and ducks.

Mathematical modeling of the infectious spread and outbreak dynamics of avian influenza with seasonality transmission for chicken farms

A compartmental model with a time-varying contact rate, the seasonality effect, and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. The model is developed based on the six compartments: susceptible, latent, infected, asymptomatic, treated, and recovered individuals. We determine the effective reproduction number for this nonautonomous system, and analytic discussion shows that at least one positive periodic solution exists for R0>1. The model is simulated using the RK-45 numerical method, and the parameter values for the model are taken from the available literature. From the numerical results, we observe that the degree of seasonality and vaccine efficacy significantly impact the amplitude of the epidemic curve. The latent-infected phase plane shows that periodic solutions exhibit a period-doubling bifurcation as the amplitude of seasonality increases. Finally, the model outcome was compared with the actual field data and found to be consistent.

Age is a determinant factor in the susceptibility of domestic ducks to H5 clade 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.4.4e high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral disease with devastating consequences for the poultry industry worldwide. Domestic ducks are a major source of HPAI viruses in many Eurasian countries. The infectivity and pathogenicity of HPAI viruses in ducks vary depending on host and viral factors. To assess the factors influencing the infectivity and pathogenicity of HPAI viruses in ducks, we compared the pathobiology of two HPAI viruses (H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1c and H5N6 clade 2.3.4.4e) in 5- and 25-week-old ducks. Both HPAI viruses caused mortality in a dose-dependent manner (104, 106, and 108 EID50) in young ducks. By contrast, adult ducks were infected but exhibited no mortality due to either virus. Viral excretion was higher in young ducks than in adults, regardless of the HPAI strain. These findings demonstrate the age-dependent mortality of clade 2.3.2.1c and clade 2.3.4.4e H5 HPAI viruses in ducks.

Estimation of introduction time window of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into broiler chicken farms during the 2020 - 2021 winter season outbreak in Japan

When an infectious disease occurs in an area, early detection of infected farms is important to respond quickly and contain the outbreak on a small scale. Estimating the time window for the introduction of the infection is important for its prevention and control. The aim of this study was to estimate the farm-specific time window from the introduction of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into poultry farms using field data from the HPAI H5N8 outbreak in the 2020-2021 winter season in Japan. Daily mortality data from 12 broiler chicken farms during the outbreak were used for the analysis. A mathematical model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed, SEIR model) was applied to generate the within-flock transmission of HPAI. The model-predicted mortality was fitted to the observed excess mortality data induced by HPAI to estimate the farm-specific transmission rate and the time of virus introduction. The estimated value of the transmission rate in each farm was 1.449 day^-1 in median (min: 0.661 day^-1, max: 3.387 day^-1). The time window from the introduction of the virus to notification in each farm was estimated at 14.0 days in median (min: 8.6 days, max: 24.1 days) in the deterministic model. In addition, in the stochastic model considering the randomness of transmission in the early phase of the outbreak, the upper value of 95 % credible interval of the time window ranged from 12 to 34 days, with a median of 21 days. The results suggest that although one to three weeks had elapsed on most farms until notification after the virus introduction, the time window could exceed three weeks considering the stochasticity of disease transmission. As for the potential farm characteristics affecting within-flock transmission, the transmission rate was smaller (p-value=0.02) and the estimated time window from introduction to notification was longer (p-value=0.02) when birds were older. This study provides reliable information for setting up a tracing period for a potential source farm and enhancing the efforts for early detection.

Avian influenza overview March - June 2022

The 2021-2022 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic season is the largest epidemic so far observed in Europe, with a total of 2,398 outbreaks in poultry, 46 million birds culled in the affected establishments, 168 detections in captive birds, and 2,733 HPAI events in wild birds in 36 European countries. Between 16 March and 10 June 2022, 1,182 HPAI virus detections were reported in 28 EU/EEA countries and United Kingdom in poultry (750), and in wild (410) and captive birds (22). During this reporting period, 86% of the poultry outbreaks were secondary due to between-farm spread of HPAI virus. France accounted for 68% of the overall poultry outbreaks, Hungary for 24% and all other affected countries for less than 2% each. Most detections in wild birds were reported by Germany (158), followed by the Netherlands (98) and the United Kingdom (48). The observed persistence of HPAI (H5) virus in wild birds since the 2020-2021 epidemic wave indicates that it may have become endemic in wild bird populations in Europe, implying that the health risk from HPAI A(H5) for poultry, humans, and wildlife in Europe remains present year-round, with the highest risk in the autumn and winter months. Response options to this new epidemiological situation include the definition and the rapid implementation of suitable and sustainable HPAI mitigation strategies such as appropriate biosecurity measures and surveillance strategies for early detection measures in the different poultry production systems. Medium to long-term strategies for reducing poultry density in high-risk areas should also be considered. The results of the genetic analysis indicate that the viruses currently circulating in Europe belong to clade 2.3.4.4b. HPAI A(H5) viruses were also detected in wild mammal species in Canada, USA and Japan, and showed genetic markers of adaptation to replication in mammals. Since the last report, four A(H5N6), two A(H9N2) and two A(H3N8) human infections were reported in China and one A(H5N1) in USA. The risk of infection is assessed as low for the general population in the EU/EEA, and low to medium for occupationally exposed people.

Exosomes from H5N1 avian influenza virus-infected chickens regulate antiviral immune responses of chicken immune cells

Exosomes (membrane-derived vesicles) enable intracellular communication by delivering lipids, proteins, DNA, and RNA from one cell to another. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 causes considerable economic loss in the poultry industry and poses a public health concern. The host innate immune system defends against H5N1 infection by activating antiviral immune responses. This study aimed to demonstrated that immunomodulatory effects of exosomes from HPAIV H5N1-infected White Leghorn chickens on chicken macrophages, fibroblasts, T cell, and B cell lines. The expression of type I interferons (IFN-α and -β) were highly upregulated in immune-related cell lines after treatment with exosomes derived from H5N1-infected chickens. Levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as IFN-γ, IL-1β, and CXCL8, were also elevated by the exosomes. The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway was stimulated in immune-related cells by such exosomes via phosphorylation of extracellular regulated kinases 1/2 and p38 signaling molecules. Furthermore, the H5N1 viral proteins, nucleoprotein (NP) and non-structural protein (NS1), were packaged in exosomes and successfully transferred to non-infected immune-related cells. Therefore, exosomes from H5N1-infected chickens induced pro-inflammatory cytokine expression and stimulated the MAPK signaling pathway by delivering key viral proteins. These findings would aid better understanding of the mechanism underlying the modulation of antiviral immune responses of host immune-related cells by viral-protein-carrying exosomes and support their further application as a novel exosome-based H5N1 AIV vaccine platform.

Avian influenza overview December 2021 - March 2022

Between 9 December 2021 and 15 March 2022, 2,653 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detections were reported in 33 EU/EEA countries and the UK in poultry (1,030), in wild (1,489) and in captive birds (133). The outbreaks in poultry were mainly reported by France (609), where two spatiotemporal clusters have been identified since October 2021, followed by Italy (131), Hungary (73) and Poland (53); those reporting countries accounted together for 12.8 of the 17.5 million birds that were culled in the HPAI affected poultry establishments in this reporting period. The majority of the detections in wild birds were reported by Germany (767), the Netherlands (293), the UK (118) and Denmark (74). HPAI A(H5) was detected in a wide range of host species in wild birds, indicating an increasing and changing risk for virus incursion into poultry farms. The observed persistence and continuous circulation of HPAI viruses in migratory and resident wild birds will continue to pose a risk for the poultry industry in Europe for the coming months. This requires the definition and the rapid implementation of suitable and sustainable HPAI mitigation strategies such as appropriate biosecurity measures, surveillance plans and early detection measures in the different poultry production systems. The results of the genetic analysis indicate that the viruses currently circulating in Europe belong to clade 2.3.4.4b. Some of these viruses were also detected in wild mammal species in the Netherlands, Slovenia, Finland and Ireland showing genetic markers of adaptation to replication in mammals. Since the last report, the UK reported one human infection with A(H5N1), China 17 human infections with A(H5N6), and China and Cambodia 15 infections with A(H9N2) virus. The risk of infection for the general population in the EU/EEA is assessed as low, and for occupationally exposed people, low to medium.

Mortality Levels and Production Indicators for Suspicion of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercially Farmed Ducks

(1) Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral infection characterized by inducing severe disease and high levels of mortality in gallinaceous poultry. Increased mortality, drop in egg production or decreased feed or water intake are used as indicators for notification of suspicions of HPAI outbreaks. However, infections in commercial duck flocks may result in mild disease with low mortality levels, thereby compromising notifications. (2) Methods: Data on daily mortality, egg production, feed intake and water intake from broiler and breeder duck flocks not infected (n = 56 and n = 11, respectively) and infected with HPAIV (n = 13, n = 4) were used for analyses. Data from negative flocks were used to assess the baseline (daily) levels of mortality and production parameters and to identify potential threshold values for triggering suspicions of HPAI infections and assess the specificity (Sp) of these thresholds. Data from infected flocks were used to assess the effect of infection on daily mortality and production and to evaluate the sensitivity (Se) of the thresholds for early detection of outbreaks. (3) Results: For broiler flocks, daily mortality > 0.3% (after the first week of production) or using a regression model for aberration detection would indicate infection with Se and Sp higher than 80%. Drops in mean daily feed or water intake larger than 7 g or 14 mL (after the first week of production), respectively, are sensitive indicators of infection but have poor Sp. For breeders, mortality thresholds are poor indicators of infection (low Se and Sp). However, a consecutive drop in egg production larger than 9% is an effective indicator of a HPAI outbreak. For both broiler and breeder duck flocks, cumulative average methods were also assessed, which had high Se but generated many false alarms (poor Sp). (4) Conclusions: The identified reporting thresholds can be used to update legislation and provide guidelines to farmers and veterinarians to notify suspicions of HPAI outbreaks in commercial duck flocks.

Neuraminidase-associated plasminogen recruitment enables systemic spread of natural avian Influenza viruses H3N1

Repeated outbreaks due to H3N1 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIV) in Belgium were associated with unusually high mortality in chicken in 2019. Those events caused considerable economic losses and prompted restriction measures normally implemented for eradicating high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIV). Initial pathology investigations and infection studies suggested this virus to be able to replicate systemically, being very atypical for H3 LPAIV. Here, we investigate the pathogenesis of this H3N1 virus and propose a mechanism explaining its unusual systemic replication capability. By intravenous and intracerebral inoculation in chicken, we demonstrate systemic spread of this virus, extending to the central nervous system. Endoproteolytic viral hemagglutinin (HA) protein activation by either tissue-restricted serine peptidases or ubiquitous subtilisin-like proteases is the functional hallmark distinguishing (H5 or H7) LPAIV from HPAIV. However, luciferase reporter assays show that HA cleavage in case of the H3N1 strain in contrast to the HPAIV is not processed by intracellular proteases. Yet the H3N1 virus replicates efficiently in cell culture without trypsin, unlike LPAIVs. Moreover, this trypsin-independent virus replication is inhibited by 6-aminohexanoic acid, a plasmin inhibitor. Correspondingly, in silico analysis indicates that plasminogen is recruitable by the viral neuraminidase for proteolytic activation due to the loss of a strongly conserved N-glycosylation site at position 130. This mutation was shown responsible for plasminogen recruitment and neurovirulence of the mouse brain-passaged laboratory strain A/WSN/33 (H1N1). In conclusion, our findings provide good evidence in natural chicken strains for N1 neuraminidase-operated recruitment of plasminogen, enabling systemic replication leading to an unusual high pathogenicity phenotype. Such a gain of function in naturally occurring AIVs representing an established human influenza HA-subtype raises concerns over potential zoonotic threats.

Differential mitochondrial proteomic analysis of A549 cells infected with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H9

Background

Both the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H9N2 viruses have been reported to cross species barriers to infect humans. H5N1 viruses can cause severe damage and are associated with a high mortality rate, but H9N2 viruses do not cause such outcomes. Our purpose was to use proteomics technology to study the differential expression of mitochondrial-related proteins related to H5N1 and H9N2 virus infections.

Methods

According to the determined viral infection titer, A549 cells were infected with 1 multiplicity of infection virus, and the mitochondria were extracted after 24 h of incubation. The protein from lysed mitochondria was analyzed by the BCA method to determine the protein concentration, as well as SDS-PAGE (preliminary analysis), two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, and mass spectrometry. Differential protein spots were selected, and Western blotting was performed to verify the proteomics results. The identified proteins were subjected to GO analysis for subcellular localization, KEGG analysis for functional classification and signaling pathways assessment, and STRING analysis for functional protein association network construction.

Results

In the 2-D gel electrophoresis analysis, 227 protein spots were detected in the H5N1-infected group, and 169 protein spots were detected in the H9N2-infected group. Protein spots were further subjected to mass spectrometry identification and removal of redundancy, and 32 differentially expressed proteins were identified. Compared with the H9N2 group, the H5N1-infected group had 16 upregulated mitochondrial proteins and 16 downregulated proteins. The differential expression of 70-kDa heat shock protein analogs, short-chain enoyl-CoA hydratase, malate dehydrogenase, and ATP synthase was verified by Western blot, and the results were consistent with the proteomics findings. Functional analysis indicated that these differentially expressed proteins were primarily involved in apoptosis and metabolism.

Conclusions

Compared with their expression in the H9N2 group, the differential expression of eight mitochondrial proteins in the H5N1 group led to host T cell activation, antigen presentation, stress response, ATP synthesis and cell apoptosis reduction, leading to higher pathogenicity of H5N1 than H9N2.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12985-021-01512-4.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 outbreaks in Dutch poultry farms, 2014-2018: Clinical signs and mortality

In recent years, different subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses caused outbreaks in several poultry types worldwide. Early detection of HPAI virus infection is crucial to reduce virus spread. Previously, the use of a mortality ratio threshold to expedite notification of suspicion in layer farms was proposed. The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical signs reported in the early stages of HPAI H5N8 and H5N6 outbreaks on chicken and Pekin duck farms between 2014 and 2018 in the Netherlands and compare them with the onset of an increased mortality ratio (MR). Data on daily mortality and clinical signs from nine egg-producing chicken farms and seven Pekin duck farms infected with HPAI H5N8 (2014 and 2016) and H5N6 (2017-2018) in the Netherlands were analysed. In 12 out of 15 outbreaks for which a MR was available, MR increase preceded or coincided with the first observation of clinical signs by the farmer. In one chicken and two Pekin duck outbreaks, clinical signs were observed prior to MR increase. On all farms, veterinarians observed clinical signs of general disease. Nervous or locomotor signs were reported in all Pekin duck outbreaks, but only in two chicken outbreaks. Other clinical signs were observed less frequently in both chickens and Pekin ducks. Compared to veterinarians, farmers observed and reported clinical signs, especially respiratory and gastrointestinal signs, less frequently. This case series suggests that a MR with a set threshold could be an objective parameter to detect HPAI infection on chicken and Pekin duck farms at an early stage. Observation of clinical signs may provide additional indication for farmers and veterinarians for notifying a clinical suspicion of HPAI infection. Further assessment and validation of a MR threshold in Pekin ducks are important as it could serve as an important tool in HPAI surveillance programs.

Scientific Opinion on the assessment of the control measures of the category A diseases of Animal Health Law: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases ('Animal Health Law'). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures will be assessed, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: (i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, (ii) monitoring period and (iii) the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zone, and the minimum length of time the measures should be applied in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, specific details of the model used for the assessment of the laboratory sampling procedures for HPAI are presented here. Here, also, the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures had to be assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. In summary, sampling procedures as described in the diagnostic manual for HPAI were considered efficient for gallinaceous poultry, whereas additional sampling is advised for Anseriformes. The monitoring period was assessed as effective, and it was demonstrated that the surveillance zone comprises 95% of the infections from an affected establishment. Recommendations provided for each of the scenarios assessed aim to support the European Commission in the drafting of further pieces of legislation, as well as for plausible ad hoc requests in relation to HPAI.

Avian Viruses that Impact Table Egg Production

Eggs are a common source of protein and other nutrient components for people worldwide. Commercial egg-laying birds encounter several challenges during the long production cycle. An efficient egg production process requires a healthy bird with a competent reproductive system. Several viral pathogens that can impact the bird's health or induce reversible or irreversible lesions in the female reproductive organs adversely interfere with the egg industry. The negative effects exerted by viral diseases create a temporary or permanent decrease in egg production, in addition to the production of low-quality eggs. Several factors including, but not limited to, the age of the bird, and the infecting viral strain and part of reproductive system involved contribute to the form of reproductive disease encountered. Advanced methodologies have successfully elucidated some of the virus-host interactions relevant to the hen's reproductive performance, however, this branch needs further research. This review discusses the major avian viral infections that have been reported to adversely affect egg productivity and quality and aims to summarize the current understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the observed negative effects.

Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks

The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.

Seasonal risk of low pathogenic avian influenza virus introductions into free-range layer farms in the Netherlands

Poultry can become infected with avian influenza viruses (AIV) via (in) direct contact with infected wild birds. Free‐range chicken farms in the Netherlands were shown to have a higher risk for introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus than indoor chicken farms. Therefore, during outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), free‐range layers are confined indoors as a risk mitigation measure. In this study, we characterized the seasonal patterns of AIV introductions into free‐range layer farms, to determine the high‐risk period. Data from the LPAI serological surveillance programme for the period 2013–2016 were used to first estimate the time of virus introduction into affected farms and then assess seasonal patterns in the risk of introduction. Time of introduction was estimated by fitting a mathematical model to seroprevalence data collected longitudinally from infected farms. For the period 2015–2016, longitudinal follow‐up included monthly collections of eggs for serological testing from a cohort of 261 farms. Information on the time of introduction was then used to estimate the monthly incidence and seasonality by fitting harmonic and Poisson regression models. A significant yearly seasonal risk of introduction that lasted around 4 months (November to February) was identified with the highest risk observed in January. The risk for introduction of LPAI viruses in this period was on average four times significantly higher than the period of low risk around the summer months. Although the data for HPAI infections were limited in the period 2014–2018, a similar risk period for introduction of HPAI viruses was observed. The results of this study can be used to optimize risk‐based surveillance and inform decisions on timing and duration of indoor confinement when HPAI viruses are known to circulate in the wild bird population.

Detection of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Subtype H10N7 in Poultry and Environmental Water Samples During a Clinical Outbreak in Commercial Free-Range Layers, Netherlands 2017

Wild birds are the natural reservoir of the avian influenza virus (AIV) and may transmit AIV to poultry via direct contact or indirectly through the environment. In the Netherlands, a clinically suspected free-range layer flock was reported to the veterinary authorities by the farmer. Increased mortality, a decreased feed intake, and a drop in egg production were observed. Subsequently, an infection with low pathogenic avian influenza virus was detected. This study describes the diagnostic procedures used for detection and subtyping of the virus. In addition to routine diagnostics, the potential of two different environmental diagnostic methods was investigated for detecting AIV in surface water. AIV was first detected using rRT-PCR and isolated from tracheal and cloacal swabs collected from the hens. The virus was subtyped as H10N7. Antibodies against the virus were detected in 28 of the 31 sera tested. An intravenous pathogenicity index (IVPI) experiment was performed, but no clinical signs (IVPI = 0) were observed. Post-mortem examination and histology confirmed the AIV infection. Multiple water samples were collected longitudinally from the free-range area and waterway near the farm. Both environmental diagnostic methods allowed the detection of the H10N7 virus, demonstrating the potential of these methods in detection of AIV. The described methods could be a useful additional procedure for AIV surveillance in water-rich areas with large concentrations of wild birds or in areas around poultry farms. In addition, these methods could be used as a tool to test if the environment or free-range area is virus-free again, at the end of an AIV epidemic.

Quantification of visits of wild fauna to a commercial free-range layer farm in the Netherlands located in an avian influenza hot-spot area assessed by video-camera monitoring

Free-range poultry farms have a high risk of introduction of avian influenza viruses (AIV), and it is presumed that wild (water) birds are the source of introduction. There is very scarce quantitative data on wild fauna visiting free-range poultry farms. We quantified visits of wild fauna to a free-range area of a layer farm, situated in an AIV hot-spot area, assessed by video-camera monitoring. A total of 5,016 hr (209 days) of video recordings, covering all 12 months of a year, were analysed. A total of 16 families of wild birds and five families of mammals visited the free-range area of the layer farm. Wild birds, except for the dabbling ducks, visited the free-range area almost exclusively in the period between sunrise and the moment the chickens entered the free-range area. Known carriers of AIV visited the outdoor facility regularly: species of gulls almost daily in the period January-August; dabbling ducks only in the night in the period November-May, with a distinct peak in the period December-February. Only a small fraction of visits of wild fauna had overlap with the presence of chickens at the same time in the free-range area. No direct contact between chickens and wild birds was observed. It is hypothesized that AIV transmission to poultry on free-range poultry farms will predominantly take place via indirect contact: taking up AIV by chickens via wild-bird-faeces-contaminated water or soil in the free-range area. The free-range poultry farmer has several possibilities to potentially lower the attractiveness of the free-range area for wild (bird) fauna: daily inspection of the free-range area and removal of carcasses and eggs; prevention of forming of water pools in the free-range facility. Furthermore, there are ways to scare-off wild birds, for example use of laser equipment or trained dogs.

Susceptibility of Chickens to Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) Viruses of Wild Bird- and Poultry-Associated Subtypes

Analysis of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses circulating in the Netherlands in a previous study revealed associations of specific hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) subtypes with wild bird or poultry hosts. In this study, we identified putative host associations in LPAI virus internal proteins. We show that LPAI viruses isolated from poultry more frequently carried the allele A variant of the nonstructural protein (NS) gene, compared to wild bird viruses. We determined the susceptibility of chickens to wild bird–associated subtypes H3N8 and H4N6 and poultry-associated subtypes H8N4 and H9N2, carrying either NS allele A or B, in an infection experiment. We observed variations in virus shedding and replication patterns, however, these did not correlate with the predicted wild bird- or poultry-associations of the viruses. The experiment demonstrated that LPAI viruses of wild bird-associated subtypes can replicate in chickens after experimental infection, despite their infrequent detection in poultry. Although the NS1 protein is known to play a role in immune modulation, no differences were detected in the limited innate immune response to LPAI virus infection. This study contributes to a better understanding of the infection dynamics of LPAI viruses in chickens.

Genetic analysis identifies potential transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses between poultry farms

Poultry can become infected with low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses via (in)direct contact with infected wild birds or by transmission of the virus between farms. This study combines routinely collected surveillance data with genetic analysis to assess the contribution of between‐farm transmission to the overall incidence of LPAI virus infections in poultry. Over a 10‐year surveillance period, we identified 35 potential cases of between‐farm transmission in the Netherlands, of which 10 formed geographical clusters. A total of 21 LPAI viruses were isolated from nine potential between‐farm transmission cases, which were further studied by genetic and epidemiological analysis. Whole genome sequence analysis identified close genetic links between infected farms in seven cases. The presence of identical deletions in the neuraminidase stalk region and minority variants provided additional indications of between‐farm transmission. Spatiotemporal analysis demonstrated that genetically closely related viruses were detected within a median time interval of 8 days, and the median distance between the infected farms was significantly shorter compared to farms infected with genetically distinct viruses (6.3 versus 69.0 km; p < 0.05). The results further suggest that between‐farm transmission was not restricted to holdings of the same poultry type and not related to the housing system. Although separate introductions from the wild bird reservoir cannot be excluded, our study indicates that between‐farm transmission occurred in seven of nine virologically analysed cases. Based on these findings, it is likely that between‐farm transmission contributes considerably to the incidence of LPAI virus infections in poultry.

Estimating within-flock transmission rate parameter for H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Minnesota turkey flocks during the 2015 epizootic

Better control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks requires deeper understanding of within-flock virus transmission dynamics. For such fatal diseases, daily mortality provides a proxy for disease incidence. We used the daily mortality data collected during the 2015 H5N2 HPAI outbreak in Minnesota turkey flocks to estimate the within-flock transmission rate parameter (β). The number of birds in Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered compartments was inferred from the data and used in a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) to estimate the parameters. Novel here was the correction of these data for normal mortality before use in the fitting process. We also used mortality threshold to determine HPAI-like mortality to improve the accuracy of estimates from the back-calculation approach. The estimated β was 3.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-4.3) per day with a basic reproduction number of 12.8 (95% CI 9.2-17.2). Although flock-level estimates varied, the overall estimate was comparable to those from other studies. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the estimated β was highly sensitive to the bird-level latent period, emphasizing the need for its precise estimation. In all, for fatal poultry diseases, the back-calculation approach provides a computationally efficient means to obtain reasonable transmission parameter estimates from mortality data.

Assessment of low pathogenic avian influenza virus transmission via raw poultry meat and raw table eggs

A rapid qualitative assessment has been done by performing a theoretical analysis on the transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via fresh meat from poultry reared or kept in captivity for the production of meat (raw poultry meat) or raw table eggs. A predetermined transmission pathway followed a number of steps from a commercial or non-commercial poultry establishment within the EU exposed to LPAI virus (LPAIV) to the onward virus transmission to animals and humans. The combined probability of exposure and subsequent LPAIV infection via raw poultry meat containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans exposed via consumption whereas it is very unlikely for non-commercial poultry, wild birds and humans exposed via handling and manipulation. The probability of LPAIV transmission from an individual infected via raw poultry meat containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans, whereas it is very unlikely for non-commercial poultry and wild birds. The combined probability of exposure and subsequent LPAIV infection via raw table eggs containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans and extremely unlikely to negligible for non-commercial poultry and wild birds. The probability of LPAIV transmission from an individual infected via raw table eggs containing LPAIV is negligible for commercial poultry and humans and very unlikely to negligible for non-commercial poultry and wild birds. Although the presence of LPAIV in raw poultry meat and table eggs is very unlikely to negligible, there is in general a high level of uncertainty on the estimation of the subsequent probabilities of key steps of the transmission pathways for poultry and wild birds, mainly due to the limited number of studies available, for instance on the viral load required to infect a bird via raw poultry meat or raw table eggs containing LPAIV.