West Nile virus transmission and human infection risk in Veneto (Italy): a modelling analysis

The effect of temperature on the boundary conditions of West Nile virus circulation in Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that causes an increasing number of human and equine West Nile fever cases in Europe. While the virus has been present in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans since the 1960s, recent years have witnessed its northward expansion, with the first human cases reported in Germany in 2018 and the Netherlands in 2020. WNV transmission and amplification within mosquitoes are temperature-dependent. This study applies a mathematical modelling approach to assess the conditions under which WNV circulation occurs based on the proportion of mosquito bites on WNV-competent birds (dilution), vector-host ratios, mosquito season length and the observed daily temperature data. We modelled five distinct European regions where previous WNV circulation has been observed within the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece. We observed that the number of days in which the basic reproduction number (R0) is above one, increased over the last 40 years in all five regions. In the Netherlands, the number of days in which the R0 is above one, is 70% lower than in Spain. The temperature in Greece, Spain and Italy allowed for circulation under low vector-host ratios, and at a high dilution. On the other hand in the Netherlands and Germany, given the observed daily temperature, the thresholds for circulation requires a lower dilution and higher vector-host ratios. For the Netherlands, a short window of introductions between late May and mid-June would result in detectable outbreaks. Our findings revealed that the temperate maritime climate of the Netherlands allows WNV circulation primarily during warmer summers, and only under high vector-host ratios. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between temperature, vector properties, and WNV transmission, offering guidance for proactive strategies in addressing this emerging health threat in Europe.

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics

Employing Empirical Dynamic Modelling we investigate whether model free methods could be applied in the study of Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Applying Simplex Projection and S-Map algorithms on yearly timeseries of maximum abundances from 2011 to 2020 we successfully predict the decreasing trend in the maximum number of mosquitoes which was observed in the rural area of Thessaloniki during 2021. Leveraging the use of vector correlation metrics we were able to deduce the main environmental factors driving mosquito abundance such as temperature, rain and wind during 2012 and study the causal interaction between neighbouring populations in the industrial area of Thessaloniki between 2019 and 2020. In all three cases a chaotic and non-linear behaviour of the underlying system was observed. Given the health risk associated with the presence of mosquitoes as vectors of viral diseases these results hint to the usefulness of EDM methods in entomological studies as guides for the construction of more accurate and realistic mechanistic models which are indispensable to public health authorities for the design of targeted control strategies and health prevention measures.

Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model

The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type of specific features of the vector and hosts at play. Within the Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, and vector competence can influence the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits affect WNV invasion into susceptible communities the most, we constructed an epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model with three vector (eco)types, Culex pipiens pipiens, Cx. pip. molestus, and their hybrids, and two vertebrate hosts, birds (as amplifying hosts) and humans (as dead-end hosts). We investigated how differences in feeding preferences and transmission rates influenced WNV transmission across different habitats and two seasons (Spring versus Summer), to investigate the impact of increasing mosquitoes on the WNV transmission risk. Our results showed that vector feeding preferences and the transmission rate between mosquitoes and birds were the parameters that most influenced WNV invasion risk. Even though our model did not predict WNV invasion across any of the studied environments, we found that natural habitats displayed the highest susceptibility to WNV invasion. Pipiens (eco)type acted as the primary vector in all habitats. Hybrids, contrary to common opinion, showed minimal involvement in WNV transmission. However, it is important to interpret our study results with caution due to the possibility of idealized spring and summer seasons being reflected in the field-collected data. Our study could be a tool to enhance current vector surveillance and control programs by targeting specific vector types in specific environments, especially in natural habitat, which are most responsive to environmental shifts. The joint approach based on epidemiological modelling based on field collected data can help to reduce wasted time and economic costs while maximizing the efficiency of local public health authorities.

Novel Amplicon-Based Sequencing Approach to West Nile Virus

West Nile virus is a re-emerging arbovirus whose impact on public health is increasingly important as more and more epidemics and epizootics occur, particularly in America and Europe, with evidence of active circulation in Africa. Because birds constitute the main reservoirs, migratory movements allow the diffusion of various lineages in the world. It is therefore crucial to properly control the dispersion of these lineages, especially because some have a greater health impact on public health than others. This work describes the development and validation of a novel whole-genome amplicon-based sequencing approach to West Nile virus. This study was carried out on different strains from lineage 1 and 2 from Senegal and Italy. The presented protocol/approach showed good coverage using samples derived from several vertebrate hosts and may be valuable for West Nile genomic surveillance.

Understanding West Nile virus transmission: Mathematical modelling to quantify the most critical parameters to predict infection dynamics

West Nile disease is a vector-borne disease caused by West Nile virus (WNV), involving mosquitoes as vectors and birds as maintenance hosts. Humans and other mammals can be infected via mosquito bites, developing symptoms ranging from mild fever to severe neurological infection. Due to the worldwide spread of WNV, human infection risk is high in several countries. Nevertheless, there are still several knowledge gaps regarding WNV dynamics. Several aspects of transmission taking place between birds and mosquitoes, such as the length of the infectious period in birds or mosquito biting rates, are still not fully understood, and precise quantitative estimates are still lacking for the European species involved. This lack of knowledge affects the precision of parameter values when modelling the infection, consequently resulting in a potential impairment of the reliability of model simulations and predictions and in a lack of the overall understanding of WNV spread. Further investigations are thus needed to better understand these aspects, but field studies, especially those involving several wild species, such as in the case of WNV, can be challenging. Thus, it becomes crucial to identify which transmission processes most influence the dynamics of WNV. In the present work, we propose a sensitivity analysis to investigate which of the selected epidemiological parameters of WNV have the largest impact on the spread of the infection. Based on a mathematical model simulating WNV spread into the Lombardy region (northern Italy), the basic reproduction number of the infection was estimated and used to quantify infection spread into mosquitoes and birds. Then, we quantified how variations in four epidemiological parameters representing the duration of the infectious period in birds, the mosquito biting rate on birds, and the competence and susceptibility to infection of different bird species might affect WNV transmission. Our study highlights that knowledge gaps in WNV epidemiology affect the precision in several parameters. Although all investigated parameters affected the spread of WNV and the modelling precision, the duration of the infectious period in birds and mosquito biting rate are the most impactful, pointing out the need of focusing future studies on a better estimate of these parameters at first. In addition, our study suggests that a WNV outbreak is very likely to occur in all areas with suitable temperatures, highlighting the wide area where WNV represents a serious risk for public health.

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.

Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus potentially causing serious illness in humans and other animals. Since 2004, several studies have highlighted the progressive spread of WNV Lineage 2 (L2) in Europe, with Italy being one of the countries with the highest number of cases of West Nile disease reported. In this paper, we give an overview of the epidemiological and genetic features characterising the spread and evolution of WNV L2 in Italy, leveraging data obtained from national surveillance activities between 2011 and 2021, including 46 newly assembled genomes that were analysed under both phylogeographic and phylodynamic frameworks. In addition, to better understand the seasonal patterns of the virus, we used a machine learning model predicting areas at high-risk of WNV spread. Our results show a progressive increase in WNV L2 in Italy, clarifying the dynamics of interregional circulation, with no significant introductions from other countries in recent years. Moreover, the predicting model identified the presence of suitable conditions for the 2022 earlier and wider spread of WNV in Italy, underlining the importance of using quantitative models for early warning detection of WNV outbreaks. Taken together, these findings can be used as a reference to develop new strategies to mitigate the impact of the pathogen on human and other animal health in endemic areas and new regions.

West Nile Virus Infection: A Cross-Sectional Study on Italian Medical Professionals during Summer Season 2022

West Nile virus (WNV) has progressively endemized in large areas of continental Europe, and particularly in Northern Italy, in the Po River Valley. During summer season 2022, Italy experienced an unprecedented surge in incidence cases of WNV infections, including its main complications (West Nile fever (WNF) and West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND)). As knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of medical professionals may be instrumental in guaranteeing a prompt diagnosis and an accurate management of incident cases, we performed a cross-sectional study specifically on a sample of Italian medical professionals (1 August 2022-10 September 2022; around 8800 potential recipients). From a total of 332 questionnaires (response rate of 3.8%), 254 participating medical professionals were eventually included in the analyses. Knowledge status of participants was unsatisfying, as most of them exhibited knowledge gaps on the actual epidemiology of WNV, with similar uncertainties on the clinical features of WNF and WNND. Moreover, most of participants substantially overlooked WNV as a human pathogen when compared to SARS-CoV-2, TB, and even HIV. Interestingly, only 65.4% of respondents were either favorable or highly favorable towards a hypothetical WNV vaccine. Overall, acknowledging a higher risk perception on WNV was associated with individual factors such as reporting a seniority ≥ 10 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.39, 95% Confidence interval [95%CI] 1.34 to 4.28), reporting a better knowledge score (aOR 2.92, 95%CI 1.60 to 5.30), having previously managed cases of WNV infections (aOR 3.65, 95%CI 1.14 to 14.20), being favorable towards a hypothetic vaccine (aOR 2.16, 95%CI 1.15 to 4.04), and perceiving WNV infections as potentially affecting daily activities (aOR 2.57, 95%CI 1.22 to 5.42). In summary, substantial knowledge gaps and the erratic risk perception collectively enlighten the importance and the urgency for appropriate information campaigns among medical professionals, and particularly among frontline personnel.

An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus

We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host selection was defined by bird host selection and human host selection, the latter accounting only for the fraction of humans that develop symptoms after the virus is acquired. To model the role of temperature on virus transmission, we considered five temperature intervals (≤ 19.25 °C; > 19.25 and < 21.75 °C; ≥ 21.75 and < 24.25 °C; ≥ 24.25 and < 26.75 °C; and > 26.75 °C). The capacity of the new model to fit human cases and the week of first case occurrence was compared with the original model and showed improved performance. The model was also used to infer further quantities of interest, such as the force of infection for different temperatures as well as mosquito and bird abundances. Our results indicate that the inclusion of mosquito-specific characteristics in epidemiological models of mosquito-borne diseases leads to improved modelling capacity.

A dynamically structured matrix population model for insect life histories observed under variable environmental conditions

Various environmental drivers influence life processes of insect vectors that transmit human disease. Life histories observed under experimental conditions can reveal such complex links; however, designing informative experiments for insects is challenging. Furthermore, inferences obtained under controlled conditions often extrapolate poorly to field conditions. Here, we introduce a pseudo-stage-structured population dynamics model to describe insect development as a renewal process with variable rates. The model permits representing realistic life stage durations under constant and variable environmental conditions. Using the model, we demonstrate how random environmental variations result in fluctuating development rates and affect stage duration. We apply the model to infer environmental dependencies from the life history observations of two common disease vectors, the southern (Culex quinquefasciatus) and northern (Culex pipiens) house mosquito. We identify photoperiod, in addition to temperature, as pivotal in regulating larva stage duration, and find that carefully timed life history observations under semi-field conditions accurately predict insect development throughout the year. The approach we describe augments existing methods of life table design and analysis, and contributes to the development of large-scale climate- and environment-driven population dynamics models for important disease vectors.

West Nile Virus Lineage 1 in Italy: Newly Introduced or a Re-Occurrence of a Previously Circulating Strain?

In Italy, West Nile virus (WNV) appeared for the first time in the Tuscany region in 1998. After 10 years of absence, it re-appeared in the areas surrounding the Po River delta, affecting eight provinces in three regions. Thereafter, WNV epidemics caused by genetically divergent isolates have been documented every year in the country. Since 2018, only WNV Lineage 2 has been reported in the Italian territory. In October 2020, WNV Lineage 1 (WNV-L1) re-emerged in Italy, in the Campania region. This is the first occurrence of WNV-L1 detection in the Italian territory since 2017. WNV was detected in the internal organs of a goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) and a kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). The RNA extracted in the goshawk tissue samples was sequenced, and a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was performed by a maximum-likelihood tree. Genome analysis, conducted on the goshawk WNV complete genome sequence, indicates that the strain belongs to the WNV-L1 Western-Mediterranean (WMed) cluster. Moreover, a close phylogenetic similarity is observed between the goshawk strain, the 2008-2011 group of Italian sequences, and European strains belonging to the Wmed cluster. Our results evidence the possibility of both a new re-introduction or unnoticed silent circulation in Italy, and the strong importance of keeping the WNV surveillance system in the Italian territory active.

A climate-dependent spatial epidemiological model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus at local scale

In this study, initial elements of a modelling framework aimed to become a spatial forecasting model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus (WNV) are presented. The model describes the dynamics of a WNV epidemic in population health states of mosquitoes, birds and humans and was applied to the case of Greece for the period 2010–2019. Calibration was performed with the available epidemiological data from the Hellenic Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and the environmental data from the European Union's earth observation program, Copernicus. Numerical results of the model for each municipality were evaluated against observations. Specifically, the occurrence of WNV, the number of infected humans and the week of incidence predicted from the model were compared to the corresponding numbers from observations. The results suggest that dynamic downscaling of a climate-dependent epidemiological model is feasible down-to roughly 80km². This below nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS) 3 level represents the municipalities being the lowest level of administrative units, able to cope with WNV and take actions. The average detection probability in hindcast mode was 72%, improving strongly as the number of infected humans increased. Using the developed model, we were also able to show the fundamental importance of the May temperatures in shaping the WNV dynamics. The modeling framework couples epidemiological and environmental dynamical variables with surveillance data producing risk maps downscaled at a local level. The approach can be expanded to provide targeted early warning probabilistic forecasts that can be used to inform public health policy decision making.

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Downscaling of a climate-dependent epidemiological model feasible to roughly 80 km².

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The model demonstrates competence in reproducing WNV event occurrence spatially at the municipality scale.

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The average detection probability is 72%, improving with increasing human infections.

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The hardest to model WNV events occurred at municipalities and years with only one human infection annually.

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Temperatures in May are found most critical in shaping the WNV dynamics.

Public Perceptions on Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for West Nile Virus Infections: A Survey from an Endemic Area in Northern Italy

During the last decade, cases of West Nile Virus (WNV) have occurred in the Emilia Romagna Region (ERR). Even though the notification rates remain relatively low, ranging from 0.06 to 1.83 cases/100,000 inhabitants, the persistent pathogen's circulation in settings characterized by favorable environmental characteristics suggests that WNV is becoming endemic to the Po River Valley. This study assesses knowledge, attitudes, and preventive practices toward WNV prevention among residents from 10 high-risk municipalities from the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia (total population: 82,317 inhabitants, census 2020). A web-based survey, based on the health belief model, was performed during the month of January 2021, with a convenience sampling of 469 participants from a series of closed discussion groups on social media (i.e., 2.1% of the potential responders). A total of 243 participants knew the meaning of WNV: Of them, 61.3% were aware of previous WNV infections in ERR, 76.5% acknowledged WNV infection as a severe one, but only 31.3% expressed any worry about WNV. Our results irregularly report preventive practices, either collective (e.g., draining standing water from items and the environment, 50.7%; spraying pesticides around the home, 33.0%) or individual (e.g., use of skin repellants when going outdoors, 42.6%). In a multivariate analysis, performed through binary logistic regression, participants reporting any worry towards WNV were more likely to characterize WNV as a severe disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 20.288, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.083-80.972). On the contrary, respondents supporting community mosquito control programs were more likely among people working with animals/livestock (aOR = 13.948, 95%CI = 2.793-69.653), and supporting tax exemptions for mosquito control programs (aOR = 4.069, 95%CI 2.098-7.893). In conclusion, our results suggest that future interventions promoting WNV prevention among residents in ERR should focus on perceptions of vulnerability to WNV, emphasizing the benefits of personal protective behaviors.

Epidemiology of West Nile Virus Infections in Humans, Italy, 2012-2020: A Summary of Available Evidences

In Italy, human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection have been recorded since 2008, and seasonal outbreaks have occurred almost annually. In this study, we summarize available evidences on the epidemiology of WNV and West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans reported between 2012 and 2020. In total, 1145 WNV infection cases were diagnosed; of them 487 (42.5%) had WNND. A significant circulation of the pathogen was suggested by studies on blood donors, with annual incidence rates ranging from 1.353 (95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 0.279-3.953) to 19.069 cases per 100,000 specimens (95% CI 13.494-26.174). The annual incidence rates of WNND increased during the study period from 0.047 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.031-0.068) in 2012, to 0.074 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.054-0.099) in 2020, peaking to 0.377 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.330-0.429) in 2018. There were 60 deaths. Cases of WNND were clustered in Northern Italy, particularly in the Po River Valley, during the months of August (56.7%) and September (27.5%). Higher risk for WNND was reported in subjects of male sex (risk ratio (RR) 1.545, 95% CI 1.392-1.673 compared to females), and in older age groups (RR 24.46, 95% CI 15.61-38.32 for 65-74 y.o.; RR 43.7, 95% CI 28.33-67.41 for subjects older than 75 years), while main effectors were identified in average air temperatures (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.3219, 95% CI 1.0053-1.7383), population density (IRR 1.0004, 95% CI 1.0001-1.0008), and occurrence of cases in the nearby provinces (IRR 1.0442, 95% CI 1.0340-1.0545). In summary, an enhanced surveillance is vital for the early detection of human cases and the prompt implementation of response measures.

Rovie-Ryan J. Exposure to Zoonotic West Nile Virus in Long-Tailed Macaques and Bats in Peninsular Malaysia

Simple Summary

The role of wildlife animals, such as macaques and bats, in the spreading and maintenance of deadly zoonotic pathogens in nature are documented in several studies. The present study substantially highlights the first evidence of West Nile Virus (WNV) infection, a mosquito borne virus in the Malaysian macaques and bats. Of the 81 macaques sampled, 24 of the long-tailed macaques were seropositive to WNV, indicating that they were exposed to the virus in the past. The long-tailed macaques were found in the mangrove forests located in the Central, Southern, and West Peninsular Malaysia. Meanwhile, five out of 41 bats (Lesser Short-nosed Fruit Bats, Lesser Sheath-tailed Bats, and Thai Horseshoe Bats) that were found in the caves from Northern Peninsular Malaysia showed susceptibility to WNV. Therefore, a constant bio surveillance of WNV in the wildlife in Malaysia is a proactive attempt. This study was aligned with the Malaysian government’s mission under the Malaysia Strategy for Emerging Diseases and Public Health Emergencies (MYSED) II (2017–2021) and the Ministry of Health priorities in order to enhance the regional capability to rapidly and accurately survey, detect, diagnose, and report outbreaks of pathogens and diseases of security concern.

Abstract

The role of wildlife such as wild birds, macaques, and bats in the spreading and maintenance of deadly zoonotic pathogens in nature have been well documented in many parts of the world. One such pathogen is the mosquitoes borne virus, namely the West Nile Virus (WNV). Previous research has shown that 1:7 and 1:6 Malaysian wild birds are WNV antibody and RNA positive, respectively, and bats in North America may not be susceptible to the WNV infection. This study was conducted to determine the status of WNV in Malaysian macaques and bats found in mangrove forests and caves, respectively. Archive sera and oropharyngeal swabs from long-tailed macaques were subjected to the antibody detection using WNV competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA) and WNV RNA using RT-PCR, respectively, while the archive oropharyngeal and rectal swabs from bats were subjected to RT-PCR without serological analysis due to the unavailability of serum samples. The analysis revealed a WNV seropositivity of 29.63% (24/81) and none of the macaques were positive for WNV RNA. Meanwhile, 12.2% (5/41) of the bats from Pteropodidae, Emballonuridae, and Rhinolophidae families tested positive for WNV RNA. Here, we show a high WNV antibody prevalence in macaques and a moderate WNV RNA in various Malaysian bat species, suggesting that WNV circulates through Malaysian wild animals and Malaysian bat species may be susceptible to the WNV infection.

Predicting WNV Circulation in Italy Using Earth Observation Data and Extreme Gradient Boosting Model

West Nile Disease (WND) is one of the most spread zoonosis in Italy and Europe caused by a vector-borne virus. Its transmission cycle is well understood, with birds acting as the primary hosts and mosquito vectors transmitting the virus to other birds, while humans and horses are occasional dead-end hosts. Identifying suitable environmental conditions across large areas containing multiple species of potential hosts and vectors can be difficult. The recent and massive availability of Earth Observation data and the continuous development of innovative Machine Learning methods can contribute to automatically identify patterns in big datasets and to make highly accurate identification of areas at risk. In this paper, we investigated the West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in relation to Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Surface Soil Moisture collected during the 160 days before the infection took place, with the aim of evaluating the predictive capacity of lagged remotely sensed variables in the identification of areas at risk for WNV circulation. WNV detection in mosquitoes, birds and horses in 2017, 2018 and 2019, has been collected from the National Information System for Animal Disease Notification. An Extreme Gradient Boosting model was trained with data from 2017 and 2018 and tested for the 2019 epidemic, predicting the spatio-temporal WNV circulation two weeks in advance with an overall accuracy of 0.84. This work lays the basis for a future early warning system that could alert public authorities when climatic and environmental conditions become favourable to the onset and spread of WNV.

Mosquito surveillance and disease outbreak risk models to inform mosquito-control operations in Europe

Surveillance programs are needed to guide mosquito-control operations to reduce both nuisance and the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Understanding the thresholds for action to reduce both nuisance and the risk of arbovirus transmission is becoming critical. To date, mosquito surveillance is mainly implemented to inform about pathogen transmission risks rather than to reduce mosquito nuisance even though lots of control efforts are aimed at the latter. Passive surveillance, such as digital monitoring (validated by entomological trapping), is a powerful tool to record biting rates in real time. High-quality data are essential to model the risk of arbovirus diseases. For invasive pathogens, efforts are needed to predict the arrival of infected hosts linked to the small-scale vector to host contact ratio, while for endemic pathogens efforts are needed to set up region-wide highly structured surveillance measures to understand seasonal re-activation and pathogen transmission in order to carry out effective control operations.

A quantitative comparison of West Nile virus incidence from 2013 to 2018 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Background

West Nile virus (WNV) transmission was much greater in 2018 than in previous seasons in Europe. Focusing on Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy), we analyzed detailed entomological and epidemiological data collected in 2013–2018 to quantitatively assess environmental drivers of transmission and explore hypotheses to better understand why the 2018 epidemiological season was substantially different than the previous seasons. In particular, in 2018 WNV was detected at least two weeks before the observed circulation in 2013–2017 and in a larger number of mosquito pools. Transmission resulted in 100 neuroinvasive human cases in the region, more than the total number of cases recorded between 2013 and 2017.

Methodology

We used temperature-driven mathematical models calibrated through a Bayesian approach to simulate mosquito population dynamics and WNV infection rates in the avian population. We then estimated the human transmission risk as the probability, for a person living in the study area, of being bitten by an infectious mosquito in a given week. Finally, we translated such risk into reported WNV human infections.

Principal findings

The estimated prevalence of WNV in the mosquito and avian populations were significantly higher in 2018 with respect to 2013–2017 seasons, especially in the eastern part of the region. Furthermore, peak avian prevalence was estimated to have occurred earlier, corresponding to a steeper decline towards the end of summer. The high mosquito prevalence resulted in a much greater predicted risk for human transmission in 2018, which was estimated to be up to eight times higher than previous seasons. We hypothesized, on the basis of our modelling results, that such greater WNV circulation might be partially explained by exceptionally high spring temperatures, which have likely helped to amplify WNV transmission at the beginning of the 2018 season.

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most recent emerging mosquito-borne diseases in Europe and North America. While most human infections are asymptomatic, about 1% of them can result in severe neurological diseases which might be fatal. WNV transmission was unusually greater in 2018 than in previous years in many European countries, resulting in a large number of human infections. Focusing on Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), we developed an epidemiological model informed by entomological data; through that we found that exceptionally high spring temperatures might have contributed at amplifying WNV transmission at the beginning of the season, causing greater WNV prevalence in mosquito and avian populations during the summer, which resulted in a higher estimated risk for human transmission. Thus, weather anomalies at the beginning of the mosquito breeding season, which are likely to become more common under the projected scenarios of climate change, might act as an early warning signal for public health authorities, enabling them to design efficient surveillance and prevention strategies.

Entomological Data and Detection of West Nile Virus in Mosquitoes in Greece (2014-2016), Before Disease Re-Emergence in 2017

West Nile virus (WNV) cases were seasonally recorded in humans and animals in Greece, from 2010 to 2014, and circulation of the virus was detected in different Regional Units of the country. Small scale entomological surveillance activities were carried out by several regions and regional units in Greece, during 2014-2016, with the participation of subcontractors for the vector control programs aiming to record presence/absence of mosquito species, and monitor and control mosquito populations. Mosquito traps were placed in rural and urban sites; specimens were collected, morphologically characterized, and pooled by date of collection, location, and species types. Mosquito pools containing Culex pipiens, Aedes caspius, and Aedes albopictus were examined for the presence of WNV and positive pools were detected in different areas of the country. Sequencing of a selected number of amplicons revealed WNV lineage 2 partial NS5 gene sequences. In this study, we present data on the mosquito species composition in the areas of study and WNV detection from several parts of Greece, in 6, 11, and 26 mosquito pools corresponding to the years 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. A total of 15 WNV human infections were reported to the public health authorities of the country in 2014, whereas no human cases were detected for 2015-2016. Taking into consideration the complex epidemiological profile of WNV and unforeseen changes in its circulation, re-emergence of WNV human cases in Greece was possible and expected, thus rendering surveillance activities imperative.

Predicting West Nile virus transmission in North American bird communities using phylogenetic mixed effects models and eBird citizen science data

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted disease of birds that has caused bird population declines and can spill over into human populations. Previous research has identified bird species that infect a large fraction of the total pool of infected mosquitoes and correlate with human infection risk; however, these analyses cover small spatial regions and cannot be used to predict transmission in bird communities in which these species are rare or absent. Here we present a mechanistic model for WNV transmission that predicts WNV spread (R0) in any bird community in North America by scaling up from the physiological responses of individual birds to transmission at the level of the community. We predict unmeasured bird species' responses to infection using phylogenetic imputation, based on these species' phylogenetic relationships with bird species with measured responses.

RESULTS

We focused our analysis on Texas, USA, because it is among the states with the highest total incidence of WNV in humans and is well sampled by birders in the eBird database. Spatio-temporal patterns: WNV transmission is primarily driven by temperature variation across time and space, and secondarily by bird community composition. In Texas, we predicted WNV R0 to be highest in the spring and fall when temperatures maximize the product of mosquito transmission and survival probabilities. In the most favorable months for WNV transmission (April, May, September and October), we predicted R0 to be highest in the "Piney Woods" and "Oak Woods & Prairies" ecoregions of Texas, and lowest in the "High Plains" and "South Texas Brush County" ecoregions. Dilution effect: More abundant bird species are more competent hosts for WNV, and predicted WNV R0 decreases with increasing species richness. Keystone species: We predicted that northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) are the most important hosts for amplifying WNV and that mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) are the most important sinks of infection across Texas.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite some data limitations, we demonstrate the power of phylogenetic imputation in predicting disease transmission in heterogeneous host communities. Our mechanistic modeling framework shows promise both for assisting future analyses on transmission and spillover in heterogeneous multispecies pathogen systems and for improving model transparency by clarifying assumptions, choices and shortcomings in complex ecological analyses.

Cochlear-Vestibular Impairment due to West Nile Virus Infection

OBJECTIVES

West Nile virus (WNV) has been spreading over the last 20 years. Human infection is asymptomatic in most cases. When the disease becomes clinically manifest, it may involve a range of issues, from a mild infection with flu-like symptoms to a neuroinvasive disease. Albeit rarely, WNV-associated sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) has also been reported. Here we describe two new cases of SNHL and balance impairment caused by WNV infection.

METHODS

The patients were investigated with repeated audiometric tests and, for the first time, videonystagmography was also used.

RESULTS

Unlike findings in the few other published cases, an improvement in audiometric thresholds and vestibular function was documented in both of our patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In the light of our findings, a prospective study would be warranted on a large series of patients with WNV infection in order: (i) to better define the epidemiology of the related cochlear-vestibular involvement; and (ii) to elucidate the virus-related changes to peripheral and central auditory and vestibular functions.

Towards Translational Epidemiology: Next-Generation Sequencing and Phylogeography as Epidemiological Mainstays

Next-generation sequencing, coupled with the development of user-friendly software, has achieved a level of accessibility that is revolutionizing the way we approach epidemiological investigations. We can sequence pathogen genomes and conduct phylogenetic analyses to assess transmission, identify from which country or city a pathogen originated, or which contaminated potluck item resulted in widespread foodborne illness. However, until recently, these types of studies have been rarities, limited to specific investigations usually conducted over the short term. Given the feasibility and realized public health benefits of ascertaining pathogen relationships, federal, state, and county agencies are building their sequencing capacities, either through acquisition of equipment or collaborative activities. In this perspective, I detail research projects that our group collaborates on with county and state public health agencies, where the objective is to identify pathogen source locations with the longer-term goal of implementing proactive interventions.

Assessment of West nile virus transmission risk from a weather-dependent epidemiological model and a global sensitivity analysis framework

West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is strongly related to weather conditions due to the sensitivity of the mosquitoes to climatic factors. We assess the WNV transmission risk of humans to seasonal weather conditions and the relative effects of parameters affecting the transmission dynamics. The assessment involves a known epidemiological model we extend to account for temperature and precipitation and a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework. We focus on three relevant quantities, the basic reproduction number (R₀), the minimum infection rate (MIR), and the number of infected individuals. The highest-priority weather-related WNV transmission risks can be attributed to the birth and death rate of mosquitoes, the biting rate of mosquitoes to birds, and the probability of transmission from birds to mosquitoes. Global sensitivity analysis indicates that these parameters make up a big part of the explained variance in R₀ and MIR. The analysis allows for a dynamic assessment over time capturing the period parameters are more relevant than others. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WNV transmission risk to humans enable insights into the relative importance of individual parameters of the transmission cycle of the virus facilitating the understanding of the dynamics and the implementation of tailored control strategies.