Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns

Fitness difference between two synonymous mutations of Phytophthora infestans ATP6 gene

BACKGROUND

Sequence variation produced by mutation provides the ultimate source of natural selection for species adaptation. Unlike nonsynonymous mutation, synonymous mutations are generally considered to be selectively neutral but accumulating evidence suggests they also contribute to species adaptation by regulating the flow of genetic information and the development of functional traits. In this study, we analysed sequence characteristics of ATP6, a housekeeping gene from 139 Phytophthora infestans isolates, and compared the fitness components including metabolic rate, temperature sensitivity, aggressiveness, and fungicide tolerance among synonymous mutations.

RESULTS

We found that the housekeeping gene exhibited low genetic variation and was represented by two major synonymous mutants at similar frequency (0.496 and 0.468, respectively). The two synonymous mutants were generated by a single nucleotide substitution but differed significantly in fitness as well as temperature-mediated spatial distribution and expression. The synonymous mutant ending in AT was more common in cold regions and was more expressed at lower experimental temperature than the synonymous mutant ending in GC and vice versa.

CONCLUSION

Our results are consistent with the argument that synonymous mutations can modulate the adaptive evolution of species including pathogens and have important implications for sustainable disease management, especially under climate change.

Understanding and applying biological resilience, from genes to ecosystems

The natural world is under unprecedented and accelerating pressure. Much work on understanding resilience to local and global environmental change has, so far, focussed on ecosystems. However, understanding a system's behaviour requires knowledge of its component parts and their interactions. Here we call for increased efforts to understand 'biological resilience', or the processes that enable components across biological levels, from genes to communities, to resist or recover from perturbations. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists have the tool-boxes to examine form and function, efforts to integrate this knowledge across biological levels and take advantage of big data (e.g. ecological and genomic) are only just beginning. We argue that combining eco-evolutionary knowledge with ecosystem-level concepts of resilience will provide the mechanistic basis necessary to improve management of human, natural and agricultural ecosystems, and outline some of the challenges in achieving an understanding of biological resilience.

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.

Ten years of marine evolutionary biology-Challenges and achievements of a multidisciplinary research initiative

The Centre for Marine Evolutionary Biology (CeMEB) at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, was established in 2008 through a 10-year research grant of 8.7 m€ to a team of senior researchers. Today, CeMEB members have contributed >500 scientific publications, 30 PhD theses and have organised 75 meetings and courses, including 18 three-day meetings and four conferences. What are the footprints of CeMEB, and how will the centre continue to play a national and international role as an important node of marine evolutionary research? In this perspective article, we first look back over the 10 years of CeMEB activities and briefly survey some of the many achievements of CeMEB. We furthermore compare the initial goals, as formulated in the grant application, with what has been achieved, and discuss challenges and milestones along the way. Finally, we bring forward some general lessons that can be learnt from a research funding of this type, and we also look ahead, discussing how CeMEB's achievements and lessons can be used as a springboard to the future of marine evolutionary biology.

Ecological lags govern the pace and outcome of plant community responses to 21st-century climate change

Forecasting the trajectories of species assemblages in response to ongoing climate change requires quantifying the time lags in the demographic and ecological processes through which climate impacts species' abundances. Since experimental climate manipulations are typically abrupt, the observed species responses may not match their responses to gradual climate change. We addressed this problem by transplanting alpine grassland turfs to lower elevations, recording species' demographic responses to climate and competition, and using these data to parameterise community dynamics models forced by scenarios of gradual climate change. We found that shifts in community structure following an abrupt climate manipulation were not simply accelerated versions of shifts expected under gradual warming, as the former missed the transient rise of species benefiting from moderate warming. Time lags in demography and species interactions controlled the pace and trajectory of changing species' abundances under simulated 21st-century climate change, and thereby prevented immediate diversity loss.

Climate change effects on the ecophysiology and ecological functioning of an offshore wind farm artificial hard substrate community

In the effort towards a decarbonised future, the local effects of a proliferating offshore wind farm (OWF) industry add to and interact with the global effects of marine climate change. This study aimed to quantify potential ecophysiological effects of ocean warming and acidification and to estimate and compare the cumulative clearance potential of suspended food items by OWF epifauna under current and future climate conditions. To this end, this study combined ecophysiological responses to ocean warming and acidification of three dominant colonising species on OWF artificial hard substrates (the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, the tube-building amphipod Jassa herdmani and the plumose anemone Metridium senile). In general, mortality, respiration rate and clearance rate increased during 3- to 6-week experimental exposures across all three species, except for M. senile, who exhibited a lower clearance rate in the warmed treatments (+3 °C) and an insensitivity to lowered pH (-0.3 pH units) in terms of survival and respiration rate. Ocean warming and acidification affected growth antagonistically, with elevated temperature being beneficial for M. edulis and lowered pH being beneficial for M. senile. The seawater volume potentially cleared from suspended food particles by this AHS colonising community increased significantly, extending the affected distance around an OWF foundation by 9.2% in a future climate scenario. By using an experimental multi-stressor approach, this study thus demonstrates how ecophysiology underpins functional responses to climate change in these environments, highlighting for the first time the integrated, cascading potential effects of OWFs and climate change on the marine ecosystem.

A perennial invader’s seed and rhizome differ in cold tolerance and apparent local adaptation

Extreme cold plays a key role in the range boundaries of plants. Winter survival is central to their persistence, but not all structures are equally susceptible to frost kill and, therefore, limiting to distributions. Furthermore, we expect intraspecific variation in cold tolerance both within and among tissue types. In a laboratory setting, we determined freezing tolerances of two overwintering propagule types – seeds and rhizomes – of the globally invasive Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense), testing apparent emergence and electrolyte leakage as a proxy for cell death. We used 18 genotypes from agricultural and non-agricultural habitats spanning the climatic extremes occupied by Johnsongrass in the US. Single node rhizome fragments had an average LT90 of -5.1 °C with no significant variation based on home climate or ecotype. Seeds frozen at -85 °C suffered a decline in germinability to 10% from 25% at 22 °C. Population origin did not affect seed response to any temperature. However, non-agricultural seeds germinated more and faster than agricultural seeds from the coldest climates, with a reversed relationship among warmest origin seeds. Regardless of ecotype, seeds from the cold/dry and wet/warm sectors of Johnsongrass’s range germinated more and faster. Drastic differences in cold tolerance between seeds and rhizome and evidence for seeds’ local adaptation to land use and climate suggest that its spread is likely limited by winter rhizome survival, as well as adaptability of germination behavior to longer winters. These findings shed light on Johnsongrass’ dispersal dynamics and help identify future avenues for mechanistically understanding its range limitation.

Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species

Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low-temperature exposure but may not have become cold-tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field-collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold-induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill-tolerant or modestly freeze-avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree-days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts.

Climate change driven hyposalinity as a selective agent in the littoral mesoherbivore Idotea balthica

Climate change will include a decrease in seawater salinity in the Baltic Sea. We quantified the effects of the projected future desalination on survival of the early life stage of the littoral herbivore Idotea balthica. We collected egg-bearing Idotea from three range-margin Baltic Sea populations, we exposed half of each brood to either current (6‰) or future salinity (3.5‰). We genotyped a subsample of each brood to analyse patterns of allelic change and to identify genomic regions targeted by selection. The survival was overall reduced by hyposalinity and broods varied in response to hyposalinity implying genetic variation in tolerance, with a stronger decrease in genetic diversity in future salinity. Finally, we identified proteins with crucial roles in basic cellular functions. This study indicates that projected future northern Baltic Sea hyposalinity will not just hamper I. balthica survival, but its selective pressure may also affect genetic diversity and cell physiology.

Using Climatic Credits to Pay the Climatic Debt

Many organisms are accumulating climatic debt as they respond more slowly than expected to rising global temperatures, leading to disequilibrium of species diversity with contemporary climate. The resulting transient dynamics are complex and may cause overoptimistic biodiversity assessments. We propose a simple budget framework to integrate climatic debt with two classes of intervention: (i) climatic credits that pay some of the debt, reducing the overall biological change required to reach a new equilibrium; and (ii) options to adjust the debt repayment rate, either making a system more responsive by increasing the rate or temporarily reducing the rate to buy more time for local adaptation and credit implementation. We illustrate how this budget can be created and highlight limitations and challenges.

Effects of widespread human disturbances in the marine environment suggest a new agenda for meiofauna research is needed

The response of an ecological community to a disturbance event, and its capacity to recover, are of major interest to ecologists, especially at a time of increasing frequencies and intensities of environmental change brought about by humans. Meiofauna, a group of small-sized organisms, are an abundant and ubiquitous component of seafloor communities that respond rapidly to environmental change. We summarise the available research on the response of metazoan meiofauna to the most widespread anthropogenic disturbances in the marine environment, including bottom fishing, the introduction of invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. We show that disturbance effects on habitats interact critically with effects on resident meiofauna species. Their responses are consistent with competitive replacement, where disparate disturbance effects on competing species drive shifts in dominance and intra- and interspecific interactions. The widespread replacement of habitat-specific ecological specialists by broadly-adapted ecological generalists and opportunists results in biotic and functional homogenisation of once disparate biotas. Anthropogenic disturbances may facilitate novel interactions among meiofauna species, and between meiofauna and other benthic organisms, but the number and breadth of these interactions is likely to be limited. Knowledge about the dependence of meiofauna species on their environment and on other benthic species has been growing. Future studies will be most meaningful if this knowledge is expanded alongside understanding the potential of locally adapted species to respond to shifts in environmental conditions.

Spatial genetic structure in a crustacean herbivore highlights the need for local considerations in Baltic Sea biodiversity management

Incorporating species' eco-evolutionary responses to human-caused disturbances remains a challenge in marine management efforts. A prerequisite is knowledge of geographic structure and scale of genetic diversity and connectivity-the so-called seascape genetic patterns. The Baltic Sea is an excellent model system for studies linking seascape genetics with effects of anthropogenic stress. However, seascape genetic patterns in this area are only described for a few species and are completely unknown for invertebrate herbivores, which constitute a critical part of the ecosystem. This information is crucial for sustainable management, particularly under future scenarios of rapid environmental change. Here, we investigate the population genetic structure among 31 locations throughout the Baltic Sea, of which 45% were located in marine protected areas, in one of the most important herbivores of this region, the isopod crustacean Idotea balthica, using an array of 33,774 genome-wide SNP markers derived from 2b-RAD sequencing. In addition, we generate a biophysical connectivity matrix for I. balthica from a combination of oceanographic current models and estimated life history traits. We find population structure on scales of hundreds of kilometers across the Baltic Sea, where genomic patterns in most cases closely match biophysical connectivity, indicating passive transport with oceanographic currents as an important mean of dispersal in this species. We also find a reduced genetic diversity in terms of heterozygosity along the main salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea, suggesting periods of low population size. Our results provide crucial information for the management of a key ecosystem species under expected changes in temperature and salinity following global climate change in a marine coastal area.

Forecasting mangrove ecosystem degradation utilizing quantifiable eco-physiological resilience -A study from Indian Sundarbans

Sundarbans mangrove forest, the world's largest continuous mangrove forests expanding across India and Bangladesh, in recent times, is immensely threatened by degradation stress due to natural stressors and anthropogenic disturbances. The degradation across the 19 mangrove forests in Indian Sundarbans was evaluated by eight environmental criteria typical to mangrove ecosystem. In an attempt to find competent predictors for mangrove ecosystem degradation, key eco-physiological resilience trait complex specific for mangroves from 4922 individuals for physiological analyses with gene expression and 603 individuals for leaf tissue distributions from 16 mangroves and 15 associate species was assessed along the degradation gradient. The degradation data was apparently categorized into four and CDFA discriminates 97% of the eco-physiological resilience data into corresponding four groups. Predictive Bayesian regression models and mixed effects models indicate osmolyte accumulation and thickness of water storage tissue as primary predictors of each of the degradation criteria that appraise the degradation status of mangrove ecosystem. RDA analyses well represented response variables of degradation explained by explanatory resilience variables. We hypothesize that with the help of our predictive models the policy makers could trace even the cryptic process of mangrove degradation and save the respective forests in time by proposing appropriate action plans.

Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change

Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges and inform management decisions, we need accurate projections of species distributions. Quantitative species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used to make these projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments are becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM projections to expectations from a qualitative expert climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed a novel approach for combining the two methods to project the distribution and relative biomass of 49 marine species in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem under a “business as usual” climate change scenario. A forecasting experiment using SDMs highlighted their ability to capture relative biomass patterns fairly well (mean Pearson’s correlation coefficient between predicted and observed biomass = 0.24, range = 0–0.6) and pointed to areas needing improvement, including reducing prediction error and better capturing fine-scale spatial variability. SDM projections suggest the region will undergo considerable biological changes, especially in the Gulf of Maine, where commercially-important groundfish and traditional forage species are expected to decline as coastal fish species and warmer-water forage species historically found in the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight area increase. The SDM projections only occasionally aligned with vulnerability assessment expectations, with agreement more common for species with adult mobility and population growth rates that showed low sensitivity to climate change. Although our blended approach tried to build from the strengths of each method, it had no noticeable improvement in predictive ability over SDMs. This work rigorously evaluates the predictive ability of SDMs, quantifies expected species distribution shifts under future climate conditions, and tests a new approach for integrating SDMs and vulnerability assessments to help address the complex challenges arising from climate-driven species distribution shifts.

Geographic variation in fitness-related traits of the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus along the Baltic Sea-North Sea salinity gradient

In the course of the ongoing global intensification and diversification of human pressures, the study of variation patterns of biological traits along environmental gradients can provide relevant information on the performance of species under shifting conditions. The pronounced salinity gradient, co-occurrence of multiple stressors, and accelerated rates of change make the Baltic Sea and its transition to North Sea a suitable region for this type of study. Focusing on the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus, one of the main foundation species on hard-bottoms of the Baltic Sea, we analyzed the phenotypic variation among populations occurring along 2,000 km of coasts subjected to salinities from 4 to >30 and a variety of other stressors. Morphological and biochemical traits, including palatability for grazers, were recorded at 20 stations along the Baltic Sea and four stations in the North Sea. We evaluated in a common modeling framework the relative contribution of multiple environmental drivers to the observed trait patterns. Salinity was the main and, in some cases, the only environmental driver of the geographic trait variation in F. vesiculosus. The decrease in salinity from North Sea to Baltic Sea stations was accompanied by a decline in thallus size, photosynthetic pigments, and energy storage compounds, and affected the interaction of the alga with herbivores and epibiota. For some traits, drivers that vary locally such as wave exposure, light availability or nutrient enrichment were also important. The strong genetic population structure in this macroalgae might play a role in the generation and maintenance of phenotypic patterns across geographic scales. In light of our results, the desalination process projected for the Baltic Sea could have detrimental impacts on F. vesiculosus in areas close to its tolerance limit, affecting ecosystem functions such as habitat formation, primary production, and food supply.