Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an Ensemble approach

The Potential of Plant-Produced Virus-like Particle Vaccines for African Horse Sickness and Other Equine Orbiviruses

African horse sickness is a devastating viral disease of equids. It is transmitted by biting midges of the genus Culicoides with mortalities reaching over 90% in naïve horses. It is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa and is seasonally endemic in many parts of southern Africa. However, outbreaks in Europe and Asia have occurred that caused significant economic issues. There are attenuated vaccines available for control of the virus but concerns regarding the safety and efficacy means that alternatives are sought. One promising alternative is the use of virus-like particles in vaccine preparations, which have the potential to be safer and more efficacious as vaccines against African horse sickness. These particles are best made in a complex, eukaryotic system, but due to technical challenges, this may cause significant economic strain on the developing countries most affected by the disease. Therefore, this review also summarises the success so far, and potential, of recombinant protein expression in plants to reduce the economic strain of production.

Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy

Culicoides imicola is the main vector of viral diseases of livestock in Europe such as bluetongue (BT), African horse sickness and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Climatic factors are the main drivers of C. imicola occurrence and its distribution might be subject to rapid shifts due to climate change. Entomological data, collected during BT surveillance, and climatic/environmental variables were used to analyse ecological niche and to model C. imicola distribution and possible future range shifts in Italy. An ensemble technique was used to weigh the performance of machine learning, linear and profile methods. Updated future climate projections from the latest phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to generate future distributions for the next three 20-year periods, according to combinations of general circulation models and shared socioeconomic pathways and considering different climate change scenarios. Results indicated the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO 6) and precipitation of the driest-warmest months (BIO 14) as the main limiting climatic factors. Indeed, BIO 6 and BIO 14 reported the two highest values of variable importance, respectively, 9.16% (confidence interval [CI] = 7.99%-10.32%), and 2.01% (CI = 1.57%-2.44%). Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, C. imicola range is expected to expand northward and shift away from the coasts of central Italy, while in some areas of southern Italy, environmental suitability will decrease. Our results provide predictions of C. imicola distribution according to the most up-to-date future climate projections and should be of great use to surveillance management at regional and national scales.

Epidemiological Analyses of the First Incursion of the Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus Serotype 8 in Tunisia, 2021-2022

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) is a non-contagious arthropod-transmitted viral disease and a World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH)-listed disease of domestic and wild ruminants since 2008. EHDV is transmitted among susceptible animals by a few species of midges of genus Culicoides. During the fall of 2021, a large outbreak caused by the epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), identified as serotype 8, was reported in Tunisian dairy and beef farms with Bluetongue virus (BTV)-like clinical signs. The disease was detected later in the south of Italy, in Spain, in Portugal and, more recently, in France, where it caused severe infections in cattle. This was the first evidence of EHDV-8 circulation outside Australia since 1982. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological situation of the 2021-2022 EHDV outbreaks reported in Tunisia, providing a detailed description of the spatiotemporal evolution of the disease. We attempted to identify the eco-climatic factors associated with infected areas using generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results demonstrated that environmental factors mostly associated with the presence of C. imicola, such as digital elevation model (DEM), slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and night-time land surface temperature (NLST)) were by far the most explanatory variables for EHD repartition cases in Tunisia that may have consequences in neighboring countries, both in Africa and Europe through the spread of infected vectors. The risk maps elaborated could be useful for disease control and prevention strategies.

Potential roles of Culicoides spp. (Culicoides imicola, Culicoides oxystoma) as biological vectors of bluetongue virus in Yuanyang of Yunnan, P. R. China

Introduction

Culicoides plays a crucial role as an insect vector in the field of veterinary medicine. The transmission of significant viruses such as bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) by this insect poses a substantial threat, leading to the development of severe diseases in domestic animals. This study aimed to explore the Culicoides species, identify their blood-meal sources, and assess the presence of BTV and AHSV carried by Culicoides in Yuanyang County, Yunnan Province. The aim was to gain insights into the potential vectors of these two viruses and elucidate their potential roles in the transmission of pathogens.

Methods

The midges were collected from cattle (Bos indicus), pig (Sus scrofa), and goat (Capra hircus) pens in Yuanyang County, Yunnan Province in June 2020. Initial identification of midges was conducted through morphological characteristics, followed by molecular identification using the cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. The determination of Culicoides blood-meal sources was accomplished using specific primers targeting the cytochrome b (Cyt b) gene from potential hosts. BTV and AHSV RNA were identified in Culicoides pools through the application of reverse transcriptase PCR and quantitative real-time PCR. Nucleotide homology and phylogenetic analysis were performed using MegAlign (DNAStar) and Mega 6.0 software.

Results

A total of 6,300 Culicoides, consisting of C. oxystoma, C. arakawai, C. imicola, and C. innoxius, were collected from cattle, pigs, and goat pens. The engorgement rates for these species were 30.2%, 54.6%, 75%, and 66.7%, respectively. In the cattle pen, the prevailing species is C. oxystoma (100%). In the pig pen, C. arakawai dominates (70%), with C. oxystoma following at 30%. In the goat pen, C. imicola holds the majority (45.45%), trailed by C. oxystoma (25%), C. innoxius (20.45%), and C. arakawai (9.09%). These Culicoides species were identified as feeding on cattle, pigs, goats, chickens (Gallus gallus), and humans (Homo sapiens). The positivity rates for BTV were 20.00% and 11.54% in blood-fed specimens of C. imicola and C. oxystoma, respectively. Conversely, the positivity rates for BTV in non-blood-fed specimens were 0.00% and 6.67% for C. imicola and C. oxystoma, respectively. BTV was not detected in C. arakawai and C. innoxius. The specimens (YY86) from C. imicola that tested positive for BTV had the closest genetic relationship to YTS-4 isolated from Mangshi, Yunnan Province in 1996. All test results for the nucleic acid of AHSV were negative.

Conclusion

The study reveals variations in the species distribution, community composition, blood sucking rate, and blood-feeding sources of Culicoides across different habitats. Notably, C. imicola and C. oxystoma emerge as potential vectors for the transmission of BTV in local animals. Accordingly, this investigation provides crucial insights that can serve as a valuable reference for the prevention and control of BTV in local animals, particularly from the perspective of vector management.

Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change

The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021-2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

The seroprevalence of African horse sickness virus, and risk factors to exposure, in domestic dogs in Tshwane, South Africa

Dogs are the only non-equid species to develop the fatal form of African horse sickness (AHS). Research conducted in 2013 questioned the long-held belief that naturally occurring cases of AHS in dogs were contracted exclusively through the ingestion of contaminated horse meat. Culicoides midges, the vector of AHS virus (AHSV) for horses, have an aversion to dog blood meals and dogs were believed to be dead-end or incidental hosts. More recently, dog mortalities have occurred in the absence of horse meat consumption and vector transmission has been suspected. The current study is a retrospective serological survey of AHSV exposure in dogs from an endemic area. Dog sera collected from dogs (n = 366) living in the city of Tshwane, Gauteng Province, South Africa, were randomly selected from a biobank at a veterinary teaching hospital, corresponding to the years 2014-2019. The study used a laboratory in-house indirect recombinant VP7 antigen-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (iELISA) with a test cut-off calculated from AHSV exposure-free dog sera (n = 32). Study AHSV seroprevalence was 6 % (22/366) with an estimated true prevalence of 4.1 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.3-8.1 %). Incidence was estimated for dogs with multiple serological results with seroconversion occurring at a rate of 2.3 seroconversions per 10 dog years at risk (95 % CI = 0.6-6.2). A subsection of the study sera was tested with AHSV viral neutralisation test (VN) (n = 42) for serotype determination. Antibodies to AHSV serotype 6 were most prevalent (90 %) in VN seropositive dogs (n = 20) with most dogs seemingly subclinically infected (>95 %). Seroprevalence descriptively varied by year and identified risk factors were annual rainfall > 754 mm (odds ratio (OR) = 5.76; 95 % CI = 2.22 - 14.95; p < 0.001), medium human population densities, 783-1663 people/km² (OR = 7.14; 95 % CI = 1.39 - 36.73; p = 0.019) and 1664-2029 people/km² (OR = 6.74; 95 % CI = 1.40 - 32.56; p = 0.018), and the month of March (OR = 5.12; 95 % CI = 1.41 - 18.61; p = 0.013). All identified risk factors were consistent with midge-borne transmission to dogs. The relatively high seroprevalence and seroconversion rates suggest frequent exposure of dogs to AHSV and indicates the need to investigate the role dogs might play in the overall epidemiology and transmission of AHSV.

Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and has a wide global distribution. However, the current and future geographic distribution maps of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in global are still incomplete. Our study aims to predict the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in current and future conditions to provide a guideline for the formation and implementation of vector control strategies all over the world. We collected and screened the information on the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by searching the literature and online databases and used ten algorithms to investigate its global distribution and impact factors. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus had been detected in 41 countries from 5 continents. The final ensemble model (TSS = 0.864 and AUC = 0.982) indicated that human footprint was the most important factor for the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The tropics and subtropics, including southeastern Asia, Central Africa, southeastern North America and eastern South America, showed high habitat suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is predicted to have a wider distribution in all the continents, especially in Western Europe and South America in the future under two extreme emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6). Targeted strategies for the control and prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus should be further strengthened.

Ecological niche model transferability of the white star apple (Chrysophyllum albidum G. Don) in the context of climate and global changes

Chrysophyllum albidum is a forest food tree species of the Sapotaceae family bearing large berries of nutrition, sanitary, and commercial value in many African countries. Because of its socioeconomic importance, C. albidum is threatened at least by human pressure. However, we do not know to what extent climate change can impact its distribution or whether it is possible to introduce the species in other tropical regions. To resolve our concerns, we decided to model the spatial distribution of the species. We then used the SDM package for data modeling in R to compare the predictive performances of algorithms among the most commonly used: three machine learning algorithms (MaxEnt, boosted regression trees, and random forests) and three regression algorithms (generalized linear model, generalized additive models, and multivariate adaptive regression spline). We performed model transfers in tropical Asia and Latin America. At the scale of Africa, predictions with respect to Maxent under Africlim (scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, horizon 2055) and MIROCES2L (scenarios SSP245 and SSP585, horizon 2060) showed that the suitable areas of C. albidum, within threshold values of the most contributing variables to the models, will extend mostly in West, East, Central, and Southern Africa as well as in East Madagascar. As opposed to Maxent, in Africa, the predictions for the future of BRT and RF were unrealistic with respect to the known ecology of C. albidum. All the algorithms except Maxent (for tropical Asia only), were consistent in predicting a successful introduction of C. albidum in Latin America and tropical Asia, both at present and in the future. We therefore recommend the introduction and cultivation of Chrysophyllum albidum in the predicted suitable areas of Latin America and tropical Asia, along with vegetation inventories in order to discover likely, sister or vicarious species of Chrysophyllum albidum that can be new to Science. Africlim is more successful than MIROCES2L in predicting realistic suitable areas of Chrysophyllum albidum in Africa. We therefore recommend to the authors of Africlim an update of Africlim models to comply with the sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of IPCC.

Predicting habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus ticks in Finland

Background

Ticks are responsible for transmitting several notable pathogens worldwide. Finland lies in a zone where two human-biting tick species co-occur: Ixodesricinus and Ixodespersulcatus. Tick densities have increased in boreal regions worldwide during past decades, and tick-borne pathogens have been identified as one of the major threats to public health in the face of climate change.

Methods

We used species distribution modelling techniques to predict the distributions of I.ricinus and I.persulcatus, using aggregated historical data from 2014 to 2020 and new tick occurrence data from 2021. By aiming to fill the gaps in tick occurrence data, we created a new sampling strategy across Finland. We also screened for tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and Borrelia from the newly collected ticks. Climate, land use and vegetation data, and population densities of the tick hosts were used in various combinations on four data sets to estimate tick species’ distributions across mainland Finland with a 1-km resolution.

Results

In the 2021 survey, 89 new locations were sampled of which 25 new presences and 63 absences were found for I.ricinus and one new presence and 88 absences for I.persulcatus. A total of 502 ticks were collected and analysed; no ticks were positive for TBEV, while 56 (47%) of the 120 pools, including adult, nymph, and larva pools, were positive for Borrelia (minimum infection rate 11.2%, respectively). Our prediction results demonstrate that two combined predictor data sets based on ensemble mean models yielded the highest predictive accuracy for both I.ricinus (AUC = 0.91, 0.94) and I.persulcatus (AUC = 0.93, 0.96). The suitable habitats for I.ricinus were determined by higher relative humidity, air temperature, precipitation sum, and middle-infrared reflectance levels and higher densities of white-tailed deer, European hare, and red fox. For I.persulcatus, locations with greater precipitation and air temperature and higher white-tailed deer, roe deer, and mountain hare densities were associated with higher occurrence probabilities. Suitable habitats for I.ricinus ranged from southern Finland up to Central Ostrobothnia and North Karelia, excluding areas in Ostrobothnia and Pirkanmaa. For I.persulcatus, suitable areas were located along the western coast from Ostrobothnia to southern Lapland, in North Karelia, North Savo, Kainuu, and areas in Pirkanmaa and Päijät-Häme.

Conclusions

This is the first study conducted in Finland that estimates potential tick species distributions using environmental and host data. Our results can be utilized in vector control strategies, as supporting material in recommendations issued by public health authorities, and as predictor data for modelling the risk for tick-borne diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05410-8.

Modeling the spatial distribution of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as vectors of animal diseases in Ethiopia

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the major vectors of bluetongue, Schmallenberg, and African horse sickness viruses. This study was conducted to survey Culicoides species in different parts of Ethiopia and to develop habitat suitability for the major Culicoides species in Ethiopia. Culicoides traps were set in different parts of the country from December 2018 to April 2021 using UV light Onderstepoort traps and the collected Culicoides were sorted to species level. To develop the species distribution model for the two predominant Culicoides species, namely Culicoides imicola and C. kingi, an ensemble modeling technique was used with the Biomod2 package of R software. KAPPA True skill statistics (TSS) and ROC curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of species distribution models. In the ensemble modeling, models which score TSS values greater than 0.8 were considered. Negative binomialregression models were used to evaluate the relationship between C. imicola and C. kingi catch and various environmental and climatic factors. During the study period, a total of 9148 Culicoides were collected from 66 trapping sites. Of the total 9148, 8576 of them belongs to seven species and the remaining 572 Culicoides were unidentified. The predominant species was C. imicola (52.8%), followed by C. kingi (23.6%). The abundance of these two species was highly influenced by the agro-ecological zone of the capture sites and the proximity of the capture sites to livestock farms. Climatic variables such as mean annual minimum and maximum temperature and mean annual rainfall were found to influence the catch of C. imicola at the different study sites. The ensemble model performed very well for both species with KAPPA (0.9), TSS (0.98), and ROC (0.999) for C. imicola and KAPPA (0.889), TSS (0.999), and ROC (0.999) for C. kingi. Culicoides imicola has a larger suitability range compared to C. kingi. The Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, the southern and eastern parts of the country, and the areas along the Blue Nile and Lake Tana basins in northern Ethiopia were particularly suitable for C. imicola. High suitability for C. kingi was found in central Ethiopia and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR). The habitat suitability model developed here could help researchers better understand where the above vector-borne diseases are likely to occur and target surveillance to high-risk areas.

Transmission Risk Prediction and Evaluation of Mountain-Type Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis in China Based on Climatic and Environmental Variables

With global warming and socioeconomic developments, there is a tendency toward the emergence and spread of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) in China. Timely identification of the transmission risk and spread of MT-ZVL is, therefore, of great significance for effectively interrupting the spread of MT-ZVL and eliminating the disease. In this study, 26 environmental variables—namely, climatic, geographical, and 2 socioeconomic indicators were collected from regions where MT-ZVL patients were detected during the period from 2019 to 2021, to create 10 ecological niche models. The performance of these ecological niche models was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS), and ensemble models were created to predict the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China. All ten ecological niche models were effective at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China, and there were significant differences in the mean AUC (H = 33.311, p < 0.05) and TSS values among these ten models (H = 26.344, p < 0.05). The random forest, maximum entropy, generalized boosted, and multivariate adaptive regression splines showed high performance at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.85). Ensemble models predicted a transmission risk of MT-ZVL in the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Gansu, Sichuan, and Hebei, which was centered in Shanxi Province and presented high spatial clustering characteristics. Multiple ensemble ecological niche models created based on climatic and environmental variables are effective at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China. This risk is centered in Shanxi Province and tends towards gradual radiation dispersion to surrounding regions. Our results provide insights into MT-ZVL surveillance in regions at high risk of MT-ZVL.

Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.

Comparison of the efficiency of the Onderstepoort- and Centres for Disease Control ultraviolet light traps for the collection of livestock associated Culicoides species in South Africa

Comparative monitoring of the abundance and distribution of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the biological vectors of the causative agents of several diseases of global veterinary importance, will be crucial in determining the risk of disease outbreak and spread. Ultraviolet (UV) suction traps have become the most frequent method used for the monitoring of Culicoides diversity and abundance. The current study compared the trapping efficiency of the two most used UV suction light traps, i.e., the Onderstepoort (OP)- and the Centres for Disease Control trap, for the collection of livestock associated Culicoides species in South Africa. The study confirmed the superiority of the OP trap and indicated a correlation in species composition and age grading results as determine with the two trap types. Substantial variations in the comparative trap efficiency, as found between areas and sites within an area, suggest that a universal conversion factor between the two trap types may not be advisable as it is unclear to what extent species composition and environmental factors may influence the conversion factor. Light traps, independent of trap model, can be considered acceptable for determining the serial comparison of population numbers for seasonal fluctuation and species abundance in distribution surveys.

Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of African horse sickness virus from 2020 to 2060

African horse sickness is a vector-borne, non-contagious and highly infectious disease of equines caused by African horse sickness viruses (AHSv) that mainly affect horses. The occurrence of the disease causes huge economic impacts because of its high fatality rate, trade ban and disease control costs. In the planning of vectors and vector-borne diseases like AHS, the application of Ecological niche models (ENM) used an enormous contribution in precisely delineating the suitable habitats of the vector. We developed an ENM to delineate the global suitability of AHSv based on retrospective outbreak data records from 2005 to 2019. The model was developed in an R software program using the Biomod2 package with an Ensemble modeling technique. Predictive environmental variables like mean diurnal range, mean precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean annual maximum temperature (^oc), mean annual minimum temperature (^oc), mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), mean annual precipitation (mm), solar radiation (kj /day), elevation/altitude (m), wind speed (m/s) were used to develop the model. From these variables, solar radiation, mean maximum temperature, average annual precipitation, altitude and precipitation seasonality contributed 36.83%, 17.1%, 14.34%, 7.61%, and 6.4%, respectively. The model depicted the sub-Sahara African continent as the most suitable area for the virus. Mainly Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Malawi are African countries identified as highly suitable countries for the virus. Besides, OIE-listed disease-free countries like India, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia have been found suitable for the virus. This model can be used as an epidemiological tool in planning control and surveillance of diseases nationally or internationally.

Equine Encephalosis Virus

Simple Summary

Equine encephalosis (EE) is a febrile disease of horses caused by EE virus (EEV) and transmitted by Culicoides midges. This virus was first isolated from a horse in South Africa in 1967 and until 2008 was believed to be restricted to southern Africa. In 2008–2009, isolation of EEV in an outbreak reported from Israel demonstrated the emergence of this pathogen into new niches. Indeed, further testing revealed that EEV had already spread outside of South Africa since 2001. Although EEV normally does not cause severe clinical disease, it should be considered important since it may indicate the possible spread of other related, much more pathogenic viruses, such as African horse sickness virus (AHSV). The spread of EEV from South Africa to central Africa, the Middle East, and India is an example of the possible emergence of new pathogens in new niches and should be a reminder not to limit the differential diagnoses list when facing a possible outbreak or a cluster of undiagnosed clinical cases. This review summarizes current knowledge regarding EEV structure, pathogenesis, clinical significance, and epidemiology.

Abstract

Equine encephalosis (EE) is an arthropod-borne, noncontagious, febrile disease of horses. It is caused by EE virus (EEV), an Orbivirus of the Reoviridae family transmitted by Culicoides. Within the EEV serogroup, seven serotypes (EEV-1–7) have been identified to date. This virus was first isolated from a horse in South Africa in 1967 and until 2008 was believed to be restricted to southern Africa. In 2008–2009, isolation of EEV in an outbreak reported from Israel demonstrated the emergence of this pathogen into new niches. Indeed, testing in retrospect sera samples revealed that EEV had already been circulating outside of South Africa since 2001. Although EEV normally does not cause severe clinical disease, it should be considered important since it may indicate the possible spread of other related, much more pathogenic viruses, such as African horse sickness virus (AHSV). The spread of EEV from South Africa to central Africa, the Middle East and India is an example of the possible emergence of new pathogens in new niches, as was seen in the case of West Nile virus, and should be a reminder not to limit the differential list when facing a possible outbreak or a cluster of clinical cases. This review summarizes current knowledge regarding EEV structure, pathogenesis, clinical significance, and epidemiology.

Potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to detect potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. We obtained the presence/absence data of five dominant and characteristic macrobenthos from 268 sites investigated during 2000-2016 and 13 environmental variables from online datasets. The ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for all five species. Model projections showed that the five species displayed different reactions to future climate scenarios: two species (the ophiuroid Ophiura sarsii vadicola and the bivalve Thyasira tokunagai) will likely contract their ranges, two (the crab Xenophthalmus pinnotheroides and the polychaete Sternaspis chinensis) will likely expand their ranges, and one (the ophiuroid Amphioplus japonicus) will likely move northward. Those differences were mainly due to their difference in thermal tolerance. Our findings provide important scientific basis for understanding the influence of climate change on marine benthic ecosystems.

Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan

Background

Bluetongue is a serious disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV). BTV is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). Serological evidence from livestock and the presence of at least one competent vector species of Culicoides suggests that transmission of BTV is possible and may have occurred in Kazakhstan.

Methods

We estimated the risk of transmission using a mathematical model of the reproduction number R₀ for bluetongue. This model depends on livestock density and climatic factors which affect vector density. Data on climate and livestock numbers from the 2466 local communities were used. This, together with previously published model parameters, was used to estimate R₀ for each month of the year. We plotted the results on isopleth maps of Kazakhstan using interpolation to smooth the irregular data. We also mapped the estimated proportion of the population requiring vaccination to prevent outbreaks of bluetongue.

Results

The results suggest that transmission of bluetongue in Kazakhstan is not possible in the winter from October to March. Assuming there are vector-competent species of Culicoides endemic in Kazakhstan, then low levels of risk first appear in the south of Kazakhstan in April before spreading north and intensifying, reaching maximum levels in northern Kazakhstan in July. The risk declined in September and had disappeared by October.

Conclusion

These results should aid in surveillance efforts for the detection and control of bluetongue in Kazakhstan by indicating where and when outbreaks of bluetongue are most likely to occur. The results also indicate where vaccination efforts should be focussed to prevent outbreaks of disease.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04945-6.

Evaluation of light emitting diode suction traps for the collection of livestock-associated Culicoides species in South Africa

Risk analysis of pathogens transmitted by Culicoides (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) depends on the ability to detect all potential vectors attacking livestock in an area. Onderstepoort 220-V ultraviolet (UV) down-draught light traps are considered the gold standard for this purpose. To improve the flexibility of this trap in the field, in the absence of 220-V power, the possibility of using low-energy light emitting diodes (LEDs) was assessed. The efficiency of a standard 220-V Onderstepoort trap (30 cm 8 W fluorescent UV light tube) was compared to that of 220-V Onderstepoort traps fitted with either two, four or eight individual white LEDs. The Onderstepoort 220-V trap was also compared to a 12-V Onderstepoort trap fitted with an 8 W fluorescent UV light tube, a 12-V Onderstepoort trap with 12 individual white LEDs and 12-V and 220-V Onderstepoort traps fitted with 12 individual UV LEDs. Higher numbers of Culicoides as well as species diversity were collected with a brighter light source. The use of UV LEDs in both the 12-V and 220-V combinations was comparable to the Onderstepoort 220-V light trap with ration to species diversity collected. The Onderstepoort 220-V light trap is recommended if large numbers of Culicoides need to be collected.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Culicoides species in the New England region of New South Wales, Australia between 1990 and 2018

Culicoides are one of the smallest hematophagous flies measuring 1–5 mm in size with only females seeking blood for egg development. The present study investigated spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides species trapped between 1990 and 2018 at 13 sites in the New England region of NSW, Australia using automated light traps. Trapping locations were divided into three subregions (tablelands, slopes and plains). Nineteen Culicoides species were identified. Culicoides marksi and C. austropalpalis were the most abundant and widespread species. Culicoides brevitarsis, the principal vector of livestock diseases in New South Wales comprised 2.9% of the total catch and was detected in 12 of the 13 locations in the study. Abundance as determined by Log₁₀Culicoides count per trapping event for the eight most abundant species did not vary significantly with season but trended towards higher counts in summer for C. marksi (P = 0.09) and C. austropalpalis (P = 0.05). Significant geographic variation in abundance was observed for C. marksi, C. austropalpalis and C. dycei with counts decreasing with increasing altitude from the plains to the slopes and tablelands. Culicoides victoriae exhibited the reverse trend in abundance (P = 0.08). Greater abundance during the warmer seasons and at lower altitudes for C. marksi and C. austropalpalis was indicative of temperature and rainfall dependence in this region with moderate summer dominance in rainfall. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index of species was higher on the tablelands (H = 1.59) than the slopes (H = 1.33) and plains (H = 1.08) with evenness indices of 0.62, 0.46 and 0.39 respectively. Culicoides species on the tablelands were more diverse than on the slopes and plains where C. marksi and C. austropalpalis dominated. The temporal and spatial variation in abundance, diversity and evenness of species reported in this diverse region of Australia provides additional insight into Culicoides as pests and disease vectors and may contribute to future modelling studies.

Global ecological niche modelling of current and future distribution of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRv) with an ensemble modelling algorithm

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of sheep and goats that negatively impacted the farmers and pastoralists' livelihood in Africa and Asia. To overcome the disease's consequences, the OIE and FAO are collaborating efforts to eradicate the disease once and for all. We developed a predictive model that delineates suitable territories for the virus globally in support of this eradication programme. To achieve this, we used an ecological niche modelling with an ensemble algorithm. AUC-ROC curve, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa values were used to evaluate the model's performance. A TSS value greater than 0.7 was used to pool outputs of the nine model. The ensemble model has better performance than individual models by every evaluation metrics (Kappa = 0.82, TSS = 0.88 and ROC = 0.99). Annual minimum temperature (24.92%), annual maximum temperature (21.37%), goat density (18.03%) and solar radiation (14.04%) have the highest overall contribution in the ensemble model. The model indicates that India, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, DRC, Ghana, Sierra Leon, Southern Spain, France, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Armenia and Azerbaijan are highly suitable for PPRv. In 2040, suitable territories for PPRv will diminish, indicating the odds are with us in eradicating disease by 2030. We believe that this model can be used as an epidemiological tool to facilitate the global eradication programme of the disease set by the OIE and FAO.

Epidemiological surveillance of Schmallenberg virus in small ruminants in southern Spain

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is an emerging Culicoides-borne Orthobunyavirus that affects ruminant species. Between 2011 and 2013, it was responsible for a large-scale epidemic in Europe. In the present study, we aimed to determine the seroprevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors associated with SBV exposure in sheep and goats in the region where the first Schmallenberg disease outbreak in Spain was reported. Blood samples from 1,796 small ruminants from 120 farms were collected in Andalusia (southern Spain) between 2015 and 2017. Antibodies against SBV were detected in 536 of 1,796 animals (29.8%; 95%CI: 27.7-32.0) using a commercial blocking ELISA. The individual seroprevalence according to species was 31.1% (280/900; 95%CI: 28.1-34.1) in sheep and 28.6% (256/896; 95%CI: 25.6-31.5) in goats. The farm prevalence was 76.7% (95%CI: 69.1-84.2). Seropositivity to SBV was confirmed in both sheep and goats in all provinces by virus neutralization test. Two significant (p < .001) spatial clusters of high seroprevalence were identified. The generalized estimating equation analysis showed that management system (extensive), temperature (>14ºC) and altitude (<400 metres above sea level) were risk factors associated with SBV exposure in small ruminants. Our results highlight widespread but not homogeneous circulation of SBV in small ruminant populations in Spain.

Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa

The number of dengue fever incidence and its distribution has increased considerably in recent years in Africa. However, due to inadequate research at the continental level, there is a limited understanding regarding the current and future spatial distribution of the main vector, the mosquitoAedes aegypti, and the associated dengue risk due to climate change. To fill this gap we used reported dengue fever incidences, the presence of Ae. aegypti, and bioclimatic variables in a species distribution model to assess the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatically suitable areas. High temperatures and with high moisture levels are climatically suitable for the distribution of Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever. Under the current climate scenario indicated that 15.2% of the continent is highly suitable for dengue fever outbreaks. We predict that climatically suitable areas for Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever incidences in eastern, central and western part of Africa will increase in the future and will expand further towards higher elevations. Our projections provide evidence for the changing continental threat of vector-borne diseases and can guide public health policy decisions in Africa to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue fever risk.