Vulnerability to climate change of islands worldwide and its impact on the tree of life

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Indicators to monitor the status of the tree of life

Following the failure to fully achieve any of the 20 Aichi biodiversity targets, the future of biodiversity rests in the balance. The Convention on Biological Diversity's Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) presents the opportunity to preserve nature's contributions to people (NCPs) for current and future generations by conserving biodiversity and averting extinctions. There is a need to safeguard the tree of life-the unique and shared evolutionary history of life on Earth-to maintain the benefits it bestows into the future. Two indicators have been adopted within the GBF to monitor progress toward safeguarding the tree of life: the phylogenetic diversity (PD) indicator and the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) index. We applied both to the world's mammals, birds, and cycads to show their utility at the global and national scale. The PD indicator can be used to monitor the overall conservation status of large parts of the evolutionary tree of life, a measure of biodiversity's capacity to maintain NCPs for future generations. The EDGE index is used to monitor the performance of efforts to conserve the most distinctive species. The risk to PD of birds, cycads, and mammals increased, and mammals exhibited the greatest relative increase in threatened PD over time. These trends appeared robust to the choice of extinction risk weighting. EDGE species had predominantly worsening extinction risk. A greater proportion of EDGE mammals (12%) had increased extinction risk compared with threatened mammals in general (7%). By strengthening commitments to safeguarding the tree of life, biodiversity loss can be reduced and thus nature's capacity to provide benefits to humanity now and in the future can be preserved.

Does target country's climate risk matter in cross-border M&A? The evidence in the presence of geopolitical risk

The impact of climate risk on the payment method in cross-border M&A remains largely unknown in the literature. Using a large sample of UK outbound cross-border M&A deals in 73 target countries from 2008 to 2020, we find that a UK acquirer is more likely to employ an all-cash offer to signal its confidence in a target's value if the target country faces a higher level of climate risk. This finding is consistent with the confidence signalling theory. Our results also suggest that acquirers are less likely to target vulnerable industries if target countries' climate risk is high. In addition, we document that the presence of geopolitical risk would weaken the association between payment method and climate risk. Our findings are robust to the use of an instrumental variable approach and alternative measures of climate risk.

Insect fauna including unrecorded species in Ulleungdo, South Korea

Background

Ulleungdo harbours a unique ecosystem owing to its isolation from the mainland alongside its maritime climate. The island, formed via volcanic activity, is the largest island in the East Sea of Korea and retains a primeval forest. The ecosystems are being destroyed owing to increasing human activity on the island. Therefore, through the investigation of the insect fauna of Ulleungdo, we tried to provide information that can be the basis for understanding the island ecology of Ulleungdo. This survey was conducted four times between April and October in 2020 at Seonginbong.

New information

The findings of the survey regarding insect fauna at Seonginbong, Ulleungdo included 10 orders, 105 families, 216 genera and 212 species, of which 12 families, two subfamilies, 13 genera and 74 species were previously unrecorded. The data have been registered in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; www.GBIF.org).

Assessing the effects of climate change on arthropod abundance in Azorean pastures: PASTURCLIM project's baseline monitoring data

Background

The data we present are part of the project PASTURCLIM (Impact of climate change on pasture's productivity and nutritional composition in the Azores). The project aims to assess the consequences of climate change (e.g. temperature increase) on the grass production and its quality for forage, as well as to assess changes in the arthropod communities associated with the Azorean intensive pastures. An in situ experiment was set up using Open Top Chambers (OTCs), in order to simulate an increasing of temperature (average of +1.2ºC) on pastures. In this contribution, we present the data relative to the arthropod sampling.

New information

We provide an inventory of all arthropods recorded inside OTCs and in control plots in three intensively managed pastures dominated by grasses in Terceira Island (Azores): two of them dominated by ryegrass, Loliummultiflorum Lam. (Poaceae), located respectively at 186 m and 301 m above sea level; and one field dominated by common velvetgrass, Holcuslanatus L. (Poaceae), located at an altitude of 385 m.A total of 41351 specimens were collected. Organisms collected belong to four classes, 15 orders, 60 families and 171 species/morphospecies (including 34 taxa identified only at order, family or genus level). Therefore, for only 137 taxa, we have a scientific name associated (n = 38918). A total of 75% of the species (n = 129 species) are considered introduced (including all the species with indeterminate colonisation status that are possibly also exotic species (n = 7622)), representing 71% of the total abundance (n = 29664 specimens). A total of 19% of the species (n = 33 species) are considered native non-endemic representing 28% of the total abundance (n = 11608 specimens). Only one endemic species was sampled, the wolf spider Pardosaacorensis Simon, 1883 (1% of the species), representing 0.2% of the total abundance (n = 79 specimens). Spiders (5056 specimens) and beetles (18310 specimens) were the dominant taxa representing, respectively, 20 and 78 morphospecies.Since the main aim of this study was to have a better knowledge on arthropod communities present in Azorean pastures under a simulated temperature increase, the principal novelty of this paper is the contribution with distribution and abundance data to a baseline knowledge on the future consequences of climate changes on arthropod communities in Azorean pastures.

The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China’s Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km2) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 in 2081–2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081–2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15–79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80–100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future.

A Conceptual Framework of Climate Action Needs of the Least Developed Party Countries of the Paris Agreement

This article provides a framework for conceptualizing climate action needs grounded in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the least developed party countries (LDPCs) of the Paris Agreement (PA). It examines the NDCs of 35 LDPCs recorded in the NDC public registry of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). A grounded theory approach is adopted to assess what these countries need to materialize their NDCs under the PA. A conceptual framework of needs is figured out through an iterative process of data collection and analysis in three cycles: (1) open and in vivo coding; (2) axial coding; and (3) theoretical or selective coding. The data are analyzed with the help of NVIVO software. The results provide a verifiable framework of needs for climate action, which includes 55 saturated need factors extracted from the writing excerpts of NDCs, 17 sub-categories (axial codes) with climate finance and technology transfer as the most prominent, and 7 theoretical or selective categories with mobilize, educate, governmental, synergic, levels, equity, and public health. It provides a baseline for policy, research, and action from the developed party countries to uphold their PA obligations.

Assessing Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management Programmes: Stakeholder Participation Process and Policy Implications for Transport, Energy and Tourism Sectors on the Island of Sicily

Climate change is a critical sustainability challenge for islands and their main economic sectors. Rising sea levels, extreme temperatures, and drier conditions are the impacts with the most significant potential to amplify the economic damage on islands. However, their isolation and natural conditions bring about some leeway to respond to climate impacts on their terms. This paper aims to provide a local-level analysis and ranking of alternative adaptation pathways in an island context through the stakeholders’ lens. This study reviews the latest advancements in adaptation science and proposes a catalogue of adaptation and risk management options that feed a participatory assessment and ranking by local stakeholders. The research was conducted on the island of Sicily (Italy) and saw the participation of high-level experts and tourism, energy, and maritime transport representatives. It employs a sequential process of four ordered steps oriented towards adaptation planning and stakeholders’ engagement. The process reveals breaches between what stakeholders’ would prioritise when designing policy pathways and their opinion about the most beneficial and balanced adaptation programmes across the sustainability criteria. Results indicate that, according to stakeholders, the priorities are to prepare the energy, tourism, and maritime transport sectors to confront future climate-related events more efficiently. Other transformational actions to ensure long-term social-ecological resilience, which requires significant structural changes and substantial investments, are not at the core of the public needs.

Wave-Powered and Zero-Discharging Membrane-Distillation Desalination System: Conceptual Design and Analysis

There are many islands without full access to electricity around the world. These energy-poor regions generally have drinking water supply issues too. Renewable energy-powered desalination units can convert seawater to freshwater by using such as oceanic wave energy to mitigate the water limitation in small islands. A novel wave-powered floating desalination system (WavoWater) was proposed for easy on-site deployment and minimal environmental impact. WavoWater can produce freshwater using a vacuum-applied air-gap membrane distillation (AGMD) system, and the heat needed for the AGMD is provided through a heat pump powered by wave energy. Small-scale experiments were conducted to estimate the water generation rate of the vacuum-applied AGMD, and the WavoWater system modeling was developed based on the experimental results and wave data observed near the City of Newport, OR, USA. Fast Fourier transform was applied to estimate the wave energy spectrum in a random sea wave state. It was evaluated that 1 m-diameter WavoWater can produce 12.6 kg of fresh water per day with about 3.1 kWh of wave energy. With the performance evaluation, the aspects of zero discharging and minimal environmental impact were also highlighted for the stand-alone wave-powered desalination system.

Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities

Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon, in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land-cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species' habitats can be expected as early as 2041-2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic Memecylon are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan Memecylon to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.

Impacts of droughts and floods on croplands and crop production in Southeast Asia - An application of Google Earth Engine

While droughts and floods have intensified in recent years, only a handful of studies have assessed their impacts on croplands and production in Southeast Asia. Here, we used the Google Earth Engine to assess the droughts and floods and their impacts on croplands and crop production over 40 years from 1980 to 2019. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as the basis for determining the drought and flood levels, and crop damage levels, crop production loss in both the Monsoon Climate Region (MCR) and the Equatorial Climate Region (ECR) of Southeast Asia was assessed over 47,192 grid points with 10 × 10-kilometer resolution. We found that rainfed crops were severely affected by droughts in the MCR and floods in the ECR. About 9.42 million ha and 3.72 million ha of cropland was damaged by droughts and floods, respectively. We estimated a total loss of 20.64 million tons of crop production between 2015 and 2019. Rainfed crops in Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar were strongly affected by droughts, whereas Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia were more affected by floods over the same period. Accordingly, four levels of policy interventions were prioritized by considering the geolocated crop damage levels.

In the Climate Emergency, Conservation Must Become Survival Ecology

Earth faces a climate emergency which renders conservation goals largely obsolete. Current conservation actions are inadequate because they (i) underplay biodiversity's role in maintaining human civilisation, which contributes to its marginalisation, and (ii) rely on false assumptions of how to catalyse transformative change. We suggest a paradigm shift from biodiversity conservation to survival ecology, refocusing the field on safeguarding a planetary system in which humans and other species can thrive. Rather than seeking to maintain a world which will no longer exist, survival ecology acknowledges unavoidable change and seeks to shape the world that will: it looks to the future, not the past. Since conservation science and advocacy have not been sufficient to achieve the required change, survival ecologists should additionally embrace non-violent civil disobedience.

Antimicrobial resistance in Galapagos tortoises as an indicator of the growing human footprint

Antimicrobial resistance has become one of the main public health threats worldwide with anthropogenic activities driving the spread of resistance. Understanding and combatting the spread of resistant bacteria is a top priority for global health institutions, and it is included as one of the main goals of the One Health initiative. Giant tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.), some of the most iconic species on Earth, are widely distributed across the Galapagos archipelago and are thus perfect candidates to test the hypothesis that wildlife species in the Galapagos carry antimicrobial resistant genes (ARGs) associated with human activities. We sampled a total of 200 free-living Galapagos tortoises from western Santa Cruz Island (C. porteri), the most human-populated island of the archipelago, and 70 tortoises (C. vandenburghi) from the isolated Alcedo Volcano on Isabela Island, a natural area with minimal human presence. Fecal samples were analyzed by quantitative PCR for a panel of 21 ARGs conferring resistance for eight antimicrobial classes. We found ARGs in both Santa Cruz and Alcedo Volcano giant tortoises; however, both qualitative and quantitative results showed higher loads of ARGs in tortoises inhabiting the human modified environments of Santa Cruz. Moreover, Santa Cruz tortoises sampled in higher human-modified landscapes (i.e., farmlands and urban areas) presented a higher number of ARGs, antimicrobial classes, and multi-resistant microbiomes than those from less anthropized areas within the same island. Our findings suggest that human activities in Galapagos have a negative impact on ecosystem health through ARG dispersal. This research highlights a new threat for the health and conservation of the unique wildlife of the Galapagos, their ecosystems, and the humans inhabiting this World Heritage Site. Our recommendation to local policy makers is to control and reduce the use of antibiotics in both human and animal health, thus helping enforce antimicrobial regulations.

The World Checklist of Vascular Plants, a continuously updated resource for exploring global plant diversity

The World Checklist of Vascular Plants (WCVP) is a comprehensive list of scientifically described plant species, compiled over four decades, from peer-reviewed literature, authoritative scientific databases, herbaria and observations, then reviewed by experts. It is a vital tool to facilitate plant diversity research, conservation and effective management, including sustainable use and equitable sharing of benefits. To maximise utility, such lists should be accessible, explicitly evidence-based, transparent, expert-reviewed, and regularly updated, incorporating new evidence and emerging scientific consensus. WCVP largely meets these criteria, being continuously updated and freely available online. Users can browse, search, or download a user-defined subset of accepted species with corresponding synonyms and bibliographic details, or a date-stamped full dataset. To facilitate appropriate data reuse by individual researchers and global initiatives including Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Catalogue of Life and World Flora Online, we document data collation and review processes, the underlying data structure, and the international data standards and technical validation that ensure data quality and integrity. We also address the questions most frequently received from users.

Measurement(s)	Vascular Plant • Species
Technology Type(s)	digital curation
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Tracheophyta
Sample Characteristic - Location	global

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.15035046

Spatiotemporal nexus between vegetation change and extreme climatic indices and their possible causes of change

Climate extremes have a significant impact on vegetation. However, little is known about vegetation response to climatic extremes in Bangladesh. The association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with nine extreme precipitation and temperature indices was evaluated to identify the nexus between vegetation and climatic extremes and their associations in Bangladesh for the period 1986-2017. Moreover, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and Morlet wavelet analysis (MWA) were employed to evaluate the possible future trends and decipher the existing periodic cycles, respectively in the time series of NDVI and climate extremes. Besides, atmospheric variables of ECMWF ERA5 were used to examine the casual circulation mechanism responsible for climatic extremes of Bangladesh. The results revealed that the monthly NDVI is positively associated with extreme rainfall with spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Warm temperature indices showed a significant negative association with NDVI on the seasonal scale, while precipitation and cold temperature extremes showed a positive association with yearly NDVI. The DEA revealed a continuous increase in temperature extreme in the future, while no change in precipitation extremes. NDVI also revealed a significant association with extreme temperature indices with a time lag of one month and with precipitation extreme without time lag. Spatial analysis indicated insensitivity of marshy vegetation type to climate extremes in winter. The study revealed that elevated summer geopotential height, no visible anticyclonic center, reduced high cloud cover, and low solar radiation with higher humidity contributed to climatic extremes in Bangladesh. The nexus between NDVI and climatic extremes established in this study indicated that increasing warm temperature extremes due to global warming might have severe implications on Bangladesh's ecology and the environment in the future.

The Expected Impact of Marine Energy Farms Operating in Island Environments with Mild Wave Energy Resources—A Case Study in the Mediterranean Sea

A particularity of island areas is that they are subjected to strong sea state conditions that can have a severe impact on the beach stability, while on the other hand, they rely mainly on diesel combustion for electricity production which in the long run is not a sustainable solution. The aim of this work is to tackle these two issues, by assessing the impact of a hybrid marine energy farm that may operate near the north-western part of Giglio Island in the Mediterranean Sea. As a first step, the most relevant environmental conditions (wind and waves) over a 27-year time interval (January 1992–December 2018) were identified considering data coming from both ERA5 and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative for Sea State. An overview of the electricity production was made by considering some offshore wind turbines, the results showing that even during the summertime when there is a peak demand (but low wind resources), the demand can be fully covered by five wind turbines defined each by a rated power of 6 MW. The main objective of this work is to assess the coastal impact induced by a marine energy farm, and for this reason, various layouts obtained by varying the number of lines (one or two) and the distance between the devices were proposed. The modelling system considered has been already calibrated in the target area for this type of study while the selected device is defined by a relatively low absorption property. The dynamics of various wave parameters has been analysed, including significant wave height, but also parameters related to the breaking mechanics, and longshore currents. It was noticed that although the target area is naturally protected by the dominant waves that are coming from the south-western sector, it is possible to occur extreme waves coming from the north-west during the wintertime that can be efficiently attenuated by the presence of the marine energy farm.

Historical diversification and biogeography of the endemic southern African dung beetle genus, Epirinus (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae)

The role of the geological uplift and climatic changes during the late Cenozoic on the species diversification of southern African dung beetles is not fully understood. Therefore, we use a divergence-time-estimated phylogeny, macroevolutionary analyses and ecological niche modelling under different climatic scenarios to investigate diversification of the endemic southern African genus, Epirinus. We predict the ancestral range and vegetation type occupied by Epirinus and how late Cenozoic climatic fluctuations and resulting vegetation changes affected speciation and extinction of Epirinus species. Our results suggest that the genus originated in forest with radiation into three geographical centres: (a) north-east escarpment forest and highland grassland; (b) south-east forest; and (c) south-west lowlands to north-east uplands in open vegetation. Reduced speciation rates in the mid-Miocene and increased extinction rates during the drier and cooler Plio-Pleistocene coincide with the replacement of forest by grassland or savanna in southern Africa. The drier climate in southern Africa may have driven extensive contraction of shaded vegetation, forcing an adaptation of forest inhabitants to upland grassland environments, or driving Epirinus species to extinction. Our study supports hypothesis of climatically driven diversification of Epirinus whereas ecological niche modelling across different geological periods suggest that the south-east and, to a lesser extent, the west coast of South Africa as stable areas.

Quo vadis? Historical distribution and impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of the Australasian fungus Clathrus archeri (Phallales, Basidiomycota)

Clathrus archeri is a fungus native to Australia and New Zealand that has started to expand into Europe, and it is considered a potentially invasive species. In this study, we examine the historical occurrence, current geographical range and potential future changes in the distribution of C. archeri using worldwide distribution data. Ecological modelling was used to assess the locations of the potential climatic niches of C. archeri within both its native and introduced ranges in the past, present and future. Our study clearly shows that the coverage of suitable habitats of this fungus has decreased since the last glacial maximum, and anthropogenic climate changes are accelerating the process of niche loss. The highest rate of C. archeri range contraction is expected in Australia, where the fungus should be considered a threatened species in the future. Highly valuable habitats will be available in Tasmania and New Zealand. However, a significant expansion rate of C. archeri will still probably be observed in Europe, where the climatic conditions preferred by the fungus will allow its quick expansion northeast into the continent.

Significant Extremal Dependence of a Daily North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and Weighted Regionalised Rainfall in a Small Island Using the Extremogram

Extremal dependence or independence may occur among the components of univariate or bivariate random vectors. Assessing which asymptotic regime occurs and also its extent are crucial tasks when such vectors are used as statistical models for risk assessment in the field of Climatology under climate change conditions. Motivated by the poor resolution of current global climate models in North Atlantic Small Islands, the extremal dependence between a North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI) and rainfall was considered at multi-year dominance of negative and positive NAOI, i.e., −NAOI and +NAOI dominance subperiods, respectively. The datasets used (from 1948–2017) were daily NAOI, and three daily weighted regionalised rainfall series computed based on factor analysis and the Voronoi polygons method from 40 rain gauges in the small island of Madeira (∼740 km2), Portugal. The extremogram technique was applied for measuring the extremal dependence within the NAOI univariate series. The cross-extremogram determined the dependence between the upper tail of the weighted regionalised rainfalls, and the upper and lower tails of daily NAOI. Throughout the 70-year period, the results suggest systematic evidence of statistical dependence over Madeira between exceptionally −NAOI records and extreme rainfalls, which is stronger in the −NAOI dominance subperiods. The extremal dependence for +NAOI records is only significant in recent years, however, with a still unclear +NAOI dominance.