1
|
Estadilla CDS, Mar J, Ibarrondo O, Stollenwerk N, Aguiar M. Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling. J Epidemiol Glob Health 2024:10.1007/s44197-024-00286-6. [PMID: 39186212 DOI: 10.1007/s44197-024-00286-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 08/12/2024] [Indexed: 08/27/2024] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population's age profile and the dominant variant. This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Basque Country region of Spain, which has the fourth highest proportion of elderly individuals worldwide. Using epidemiological data on hospitalizations, ICU admissions, fatalities, and vaccination coverage, we calibrated four versions of an ordinary differential equations model with varying assumptions on the age structure and transmission function. Counterfactual no-vaccine scenarios were simulated by setting the vaccination rate to zero while all other parameters were held constant. The initial vaccination rollout is estimated to have prevented 46,000 to 75,000 hospitalizations, 6,000 to 11,000 ICU admissions, and 15,000 to 24,000 deaths, reducing these outcomes by 73-86%. The most significant impact occurred during the third quarter of 2021, coinciding with the Delta variant's dominance and a vaccination rate exceeding 60%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination coverage had a more substantial effect on averted outcomes than vaccine efficacy. Overall, the vaccination campaign in the Basque Country significantly reduced severe COVID-19 outcomes, aligning with global estimates and demonstrating robustness across different modeling approaches.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carlo Delfin S Estadilla
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, Basque Country, 48009, Spain
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Department, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Leioa, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Javier Mar
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Oliver Ibarrondo
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, Basque Country, 48009, Spain
| | - Maíra Aguiar
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, Basque Country, 48009, Spain.
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Torres A, Wenke M, Lieneck C, Ramamonjiarivelo Z, Ari A. A Systematic Review of Artificial Intelligence Used to Predict Loneliness, Social Isolation, and Drug Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic. J Multidiscip Healthc 2024; 17:3403-3425. [PMID: 39050693 PMCID: PMC11268377 DOI: 10.2147/jmdh.s466099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 06/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024] Open
Abstract
This systematic literature review evaluates the role of machine learning, artificial intelligence (AI), and social determinants of health (SDOH) in identifying loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic. By examining various studies and articles through a comprehensive search of databases EBSCOhost, Medline Complete, Academic Search Complete, Directory of Open Access Journals, and Complementary Index, the research team sought to discern consistent themes and patterns. We identified four constructs central to understanding the impact of the pandemic on societal well-being: (1) the prediction of compliance with COVID-19 measures, (2) the prediction of loneliness and its effects, (3) the prediction of well-being and social inclusion, and (4) the prediction of drug use. Within these constructs, prevalent themes related to opioid overdose, stress levels, mental health, well-being, and cognitive decline emerged. The adherence to the PRISMA 2020 checklist has resulted in a PRISMA flow diagram that categorizes the selected literature. The findings of this review, including the proportion of studies predicting various attributes related to loneliness, demonstrate the critical intersections between machine learning, AI, SDOH, and the psychosocial phenomenon of loneliness amidst a global health crisis. The review results provide a summary of the occurrences and predictive percentages of each construct as determined by the literature, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the pandemic's multifaceted impact on loneliness, social isolation, and drug use. Using AI to predict these constructs has remarkable capabilities in identifying individuals at risk and facilitating timely interventions to mitigate adverse outcomes and promote mental health resilience in the face of challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Moving forward, future research is warranted to refine AI algorithms, validate predictive models and utilize AI-based interventions in healthcare and mental health services while ensuring data security, and individuals' privacy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alani Torres
- School of Health Administration; Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA
| | - Melina Wenke
- School of Health Administration; Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA
| | - Cristian Lieneck
- School of Health Administration; Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA
| | - Zo Ramamonjiarivelo
- School of Health Administration; Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA
| | - Arzu Ari
- College of Health Professions; Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Saldaña F, Stollenwerk N, Van Dierdonck JB, Aguiar M. Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern. Sci Rep 2024; 14:9823. [PMID: 38684927 PMCID: PMC11058258 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60661-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024] Open
Abstract
The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain
| | | | - Maíra Aguiar
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain.
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Trento, Italy.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Fullaondo A, Erreguerena I, Keenoy EDM. Transforming health care systems towards high-performance organizations: qualitative study based on learning from COVID-19 pandemic in the Basque Country (Spain). BMC Health Serv Res 2024; 24:364. [PMID: 38515068 PMCID: PMC10958960 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-024-10810-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Accepted: 02/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/23/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the worst health catastrophes of the last century, which caused severe economic, political, and social consequences worldwide. Despite these devastating consequences, lessons learned provide a great opportunity that can drive the reform of health systems to become high-performing, effective, equitable, accessible, and sustainable organisations. This work identifies areas in which changes must be encouraged that will enable health systems to deal effectively with current and future challenges, beyond COVID-19. METHODS A realist design was chosen, based on qualitative data collection techniques, content analysis and triangulation to identify key domains of organizational interventions behind the changes implemented to react to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Basque Country. Twenty key informants were used as an expert source of information. Thematic analysis was done using the Framework Method. RESULTS The analysis of the interviews resulted in the identification of 116 codes, which were reviewed and agreed upon by the researchers. Following the process of methodological analysis, these codes were grouped into domains: seven themes and 23 sub-themes. Specifically, the themes are: responsiveness, telehealth, integration, knowledge management, professional roles, digitisation, and organisational communication. The detailed description of each theme and subtheme is presented. CONCLUSIONS The findings of this work pretend to guide the transformation of health systems into organisations that can improve the health of their populations and provide high quality care. Such a multidimensional and comprehensive reform encompasses both strategic and operational actions in diverse areas and requires a broad and sustained political, technical, and financial commitment.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ane Fullaondo
- Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain.
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
Mar J, Ibarrondo O, Estadilla CDS, Stollenwerk N, Antoñanzas F, Blasco-Aguado R, Larrañaga I, Bidaurrazaga J, Aguiar M. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccines for COVID-19 According to Sex, Comorbidity and Socioeconomic Status: A Population Study. PHARMACOECONOMICS 2024; 42:219-229. [PMID: 37910377 PMCID: PMC10810962 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-023-01326-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are extremely effective in preventing severe disease, but their real-world cost effectiveness is still an open question. We present an analysis of the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the Basque Country, Spain. METHODS To calculate costs and quality-adjusted life years for the entire population of the Basque Country, dynamic modelling and a real-world data analysis were combined. Data on COVID-19 infection outcomes (cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths) and population characteristics (age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity) during the initial phase of the vaccination rollout, from January to June of 2021, were retrieved from the Basque Health Service database. The outcomes in the alternative scenario (without vaccination) were estimated with the dynamic model used to guide public health authority policies, from February to December 2020. Individual comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy and costs were estimated. RESULTS By averting severe disease-related outcomes, COVID-19 vaccination resulted in monetary savings of €26.44 million for the first semester of 2021. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €707/quality-adjusted life year considering official vaccine prices and dominant real prices. While the analysis by comorbidity showed that vaccines were considerably more cost effective in individuals with pre-existing health conditions, this benefit was lower in the low socioeconomic status group. CONCLUSIONS The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the vaccination programme justified the policy of prioritising high-comorbidity patients. The initial phase of COVID-19 vaccination was dominant from the perspective of the healthcare payer.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Javier Mar
- Research Unit, Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Health Organization, Arrasate-Mondragón, Spain.
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain.
- Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain.
- Unidad de Gestión Sanitaria, Hospital 'Alto Deba', Avenida Navarra 16, 20500, Mondragón, Spain.
| | - Oliver Ibarrondo
- Research Unit, Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Health Organization, Arrasate-Mondragón, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
| | - Carlo Delfin S Estadilla
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Spain
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Spain
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universita degli Studi di Trento, Trento, Italy
| | | | | | - Igor Larrañaga
- Research Unit, Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Health Organization, Arrasate-Mondragón, Spain
- Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Barakaldo, Spain
| | - Joseba Bidaurrazaga
- Public Health Directorate, Basque Government Health Department, Bilbao, Spain
| | - Maíra Aguiar
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universita degli Studi di Trento, Trento, Italy
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Stollenwerk N, Estadilla CDS, Mar J, Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck J, Ibarrondo O, Blasco-Aguado R, Aguiar M. The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:318-340. [PMID: 36945695 PMCID: PMC9998287 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Revised: 02/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization schedule. To assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes, we used an extended Susceptible - Hospitalized - Asymptomatic/mild - Recovered (SHAR) model. Vaccination models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types: vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission, and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and infection. VE was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine administration. We described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country, Spain. With a population in a mixed vaccination setting, our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started, from May to June 2021. Specifically in June, a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nico Stollenwerk
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universitá degli Studi di Trento, Povo, Trento, Italy
| | - Carlo Delfin S Estadilla
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Department, University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Javier Mar
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
| | | | - Oliver Ibarrondo
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
| | | | - Maíra Aguiar
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universitá degli Studi di Trento, Povo, Trento, Italy
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Agnelli JP, Buffa B, Knopoff D, Torres G. A Spatial Kinetic Model of Crowd Evacuation Dynamics with Infectious Disease Contagion. Bull Math Biol 2023; 85:23. [PMID: 36806994 PMCID: PMC9937870 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-023-01127-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2023]
Abstract
This paper proposes a kinetic theory approach coupling together the modeling of crowd evacuation from a bounded domain with exit doors and infectious disease contagion. The spatial movement of individuals in the crowd is modeled by a proper description of the interactions with people in the crowd and the environment, including walls and exits. At the same time, interactions among healthy and infectious individuals may generate disease spreading if exposure time is long enough. Immunization of the population and individual awareness to contagion is considered as well. Interactions are modeled by tools of game theory, that let us propose the so-called tables of games that are introduced in the general kinetic equations. The proposed model is qualitatively studied and, through a series of case studies, we explore different scenarios related to crowding and gathering formation within indoor venues under the spread of a respiratory infectious disease, obtaining insights on specific policies to reduce contagion that may be implemented.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Juan Pablo Agnelli
- grid.423606.50000 0001 1945 2152Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios de Matemática (CIEM), CONICET, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000 Córdoba Argentina
- grid.10692.3c0000 0001 0115 2557FaMAF, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000 Córdoba Argentina
| | - Bruno Buffa
- grid.10692.3c0000 0001 0115 2557FaMAF, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000 Córdoba Argentina
| | - Damián Knopoff
- grid.423606.50000 0001 1945 2152Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios de Matemática (CIEM), CONICET, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000 Córdoba Argentina
- grid.10692.3c0000 0001 0115 2557FaMAF, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000 Córdoba Argentina
- Intelligent Biodata SL, Paseo de Borroto 9, San Sebastián, 20009 Gipuzkoa Spain
- grid.462072.50000 0004 0467 2410Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, 48009 Bizkaia Spain
| | - Germán Torres
- Instituto de Modelado e Innovación Tecnológica (IMIT), CONICET, Av. Libertad 5460, Corrientes, 3404 Corrientes Argentina
- grid.412235.30000 0001 2173 7317FaCENA, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Av. Libertad 5460, Corrientes, 3404 Corrientes Argentina
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Meyer JFCA, Lima M. Relevant mathematical modelling efforts for understanding COVID-19 dynamics: an educational challenge. ZDM : THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL ON MATHEMATICS EDUCATION 2022; 55:49-63. [PMID: 36475296 PMCID: PMC9716171 DOI: 10.1007/s11858-022-01447-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED The purpose of the work described in this paper is to emphasize the importance of using mathematical models and mathematical modelling in order to be able to understand and to learn possible behaviours in epidemic situations such as that of the COVID-19 pandemic, besides suggesting modelling techniques with which to evaluate certain sanitary decisions and policies which do, in fact, affect society as a whole. The mathematical tools that are used derive from nonlinear systems of difference equations (possibly viable at a high school level, using spreadsheets or adequate software) as well as nonlinear systems of ordinary differential equations (therefore using mathematical tools and software well within the reach of undergraduate students of many courses). This purpose is accomplished by motivating students and learners to study existing SIR-type models and modifying them in order to have a fully understandable translation of dynamics for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in several different realistic scenarios, that is to say, situations that consider social distancing policies, widespread vaccination programmes, as well as possible and even probable results when in the presence of negationist postures and attitudes. Several modelling choices referring to real-life situations are shown and explored. These models are analysed and discussed, implicitly proposing similar attitudes and evaluations in learning environments. Conclusions are drawn, stimulating further work using the described mathematical tools and resources. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11858-022-01447-2.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- J. F. C. A. Meyer
- Department of Applied Mathematics, IMECC-UNICAMP, Campinas, SP Brazil
| | - M. Lima
- Department of Applied Mathematics, IMECC-UNICAMP, Campinas, SP Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Ibarrondo O, Aguiar M, Stollenwerk N, Blasco-Aguado R, Larrañaga I, Bidaurrazaga J, Estadilla CDS, Mar J. Changes in Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Outcomes Achieved by the Vaccination Program: A Nationwide Cohort Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:12746. [PMID: 36232048 PMCID: PMC9566423 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191912746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2022] [Revised: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to assess changes in social and clinical determinants of COVID-19 outcomes associated with the first year of COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the Basque population. METHODS A retrospective study was performed using the complete database of the Basque Health Service (n = 2,343,858). We analyzed data on age, sex, socioeconomic status, the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and COVID-19 infection by Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS Women had a higher hazard ratio (HR) of infection (1.1) and a much lower rate of hospitalization (0.7). With older age, the risk of infection fell, but the risks of hospitalization and ICU admission increased. The higher the CCI, the higher the risks of infection and hospitalization. The risk of infection was higher in high-income individuals in all periods (HR = 1.2-1.4) while their risk of hospitalization was lower in the post-vaccination period (HR = 0.451). CONCLUSION Despite the lifting of many control measures during the second half of 2021, restoring human mobility patterns, the situation could not be defined as syndemic, clinical determinants seeming to have more influence than social ones on COVID-19 outcomes, both before and after vaccination program implementation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Ibarrondo
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Health Organisation, Research Unit, 20500 Arrasate-Mondragón, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, 20014 Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
| | - Maíra Aguiar
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, 48009 Bilbao, Spain
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, 48009 Bilbao, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universita degli Studi di Trento, 38122 Trento, Italy
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, 48009 Bilbao, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universita degli Studi di Trento, 38122 Trento, Italy
| | | | - Igor Larrañaga
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Health Organisation, Research Unit, 20500 Arrasate-Mondragón, Spain
- Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, 48902 Barakaldo, Spain
| | | | - Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, 48009 Bilbao, Spain
- Public Health Department, University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Spain
| | - Javier Mar
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Health Organisation, Research Unit, 20500 Arrasate-Mondragón, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, 20014 Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
- Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, 48902 Barakaldo, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Sebbagh A, Kechida S. EKF-SIRD model algorithm for predicting the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading dynamics. Sci Rep 2022; 12:13415. [PMID: 35927443 PMCID: PMC9352705 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-16496-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2021] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
In this paper, we study the Covid 19 disease profile in the Algerian territory since February 25, 2020 to February 13, 2021. The idea is to develop a decision support system allowing public health decision and policy-makers to have future statistics (the daily prediction of parameters) of the pandemic; and also encourage citizens for conducting health protocols. Many studies applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models to forecast the evolution of coronavirus epidemic, but the use of such models alone to make the prediction will be less precise. For this purpose, we assume that the spread of the coronavirus is a moving target described by an epidemic model. On the basis of a SIRD model (Susceptible-Infection-Recovery- Death), we applied the EKF algorithm to predict daily all parameters. These predicted parameters will be much beneficial to hospital managers for updating the available means of hospitalization (beds, oxygen concentrator, etc.) in order to reduce the mortality rate and the infected. Simulations carried out reveal that the EKF seems to be more efficient according to the obtained results.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Abdennour Sebbagh
- Laboratoire d'Automatique et Informatique de Guelma (LAIG), Université 8 mai 1945 Guelma, Bp: 401, 24000, Guelma, Algeria.
| | - Sihem Kechida
- Laboratoire d'Automatique et Informatique de Guelma (LAIG), Université 8 mai 1945 Guelma, Bp: 401, 24000, Guelma, Algeria
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Niu Z, Scarciotti G. Ranking the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to counter COVID-19 in UK universities with vaccinated population. Sci Rep 2022; 12:13039. [PMID: 35906452 PMCID: PMC9336164 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-16532-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Several universities around the world have resumed in-person teaching after successful vaccination campaigns have covered 70/80% of the population. In this study, we combine a new compartmental model with an optimal control formulation to discover, among different non-pharmaceutical interventions, the best prevention strategy to maximize on-campus activities while keeping spread under control. Composed of two interconnected Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) structures, the model enables staff-to-staff infections, student-to-staff cross infections, student-to-student infections, and environment-to-individual infections. Then, we model input variables representing the implementation of different non-pharmaceutical interventions and formulate and solve optimal control problems for four desired scenarios: minimum number of cases, minimum intervention, minimum non-quarantine intervention, and minimum quarantine intervention. Our results reveal the particular significance of mask wearing and social distancing in universities with vaccinated population (with proportions according to UK data). The study also reveals that quarantining infected students has a higher importance than quarantining staff. In contrast, other measures such as environmental disinfection seems to be less important.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zirui Niu
- EEE, Imperial College London, Exhibition Rd, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Giordano Scarciotti
- EEE, Imperial College London, Exhibition Rd, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0267772. [PMID: 35830439 PMCID: PMC9278753 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million cases were confirmed, counting more than 6.1 million deaths worldwide. COVID-19 symptoms range from mild (or no) symptoms to severe illness, with disease severity and death occurring according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing risks of disease severity. In order to understand the dynamics of disease severity during the initial phase of the pandemic, we propose a modeling framework stratifying the studied population into two groups, older and younger, assuming different risks for severe disease manifestation. The deterministic and the stochastic models are parametrized using epidemiological data for the Basque Country population referring to confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths, from February to the end of March 2020. Using similar parameter values, both models were able to describe well the existing data. A detailed sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the key parameters influencing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the population. We observed that the population younger than 60 years old of age would contribute more to the overall force of infection than the older population, as opposed to the already existing age-structured models, opening new ways to understand the effect of population age on disease severity during the COVID-19 pandemic. With mild/asymptomatic cases significantly influencing the disease spreading and control, our findings support the vaccination strategy prioritising the most vulnerable individuals to reduce hospitalization and deaths, as well as the non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to reduce disease transmission.
Collapse
|
13
|
Galetsi P, Katsaliaki K, Kumar S. The medical and societal impact of big data analytics and artificial intelligence applications in combating pandemics: A review focused on Covid-19. Soc Sci Med 2022; 301:114973. [PMID: 35452893 PMCID: PMC9001170 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114973] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Revised: 02/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
With Covid-19 impacting communities in different ways, research has increasingly turned to big data analytics (BDA) and artificial intelligence (AI) tools to track and monitor the virus's spread and its effect on humanity and the global economy. The purpose of this study is to conduct an in-depth literature review to identify how BDA and AI were involved in the management of Covid-19 (while considering diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI)). The rigorous search resulted in a portfolio of 607 articles, retrieved from the Web of Science database, where content analysis has been conducted. This study identifies the BDA and AI applications developed to deal with the initial Covid-19 outbreak and the containment of the pandemic, along with their benefits for the social good. Moreover, this study reveals the DEI challenges related to these applications, ways to mitigate the concerns, and how to develop viable techniques to deal with similar crises in the future. The article pool recognized the high presence of machine learning (ML) and the role of mobile technology, social media and telemedicine in the use of BDA and AI during Covid-19. This study offers a collective insight into many of the key issues and underlying complexities affecting public health and society from Covid-19, and the solutions offered from information systems and technological perspectives.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Panagiota Galetsi
- School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Economics, International Hellenic University, 14th Km Thessaloniki-N.Moudania, Thessaloniki, 57001, Greece
| | - Korina Katsaliaki
- School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Economics, International Hellenic University, 14th Km Thessaloniki-N.Moudania, Thessaloniki, 57001, Greece
| | - Sameer Kumar
- Opus College of Business, University of St. Thomas Minneapolis Campus 1000 LaSalle Ave, Schulze Hall 333, Minneapolis, MN, 55403, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Short-Term and Long-Term COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting Revisited with the Emergence of OMICRON Variant in Jordan. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10040569. [PMID: 35455319 PMCID: PMC9025683 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10040569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Revised: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Three simple approaches to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic in Jordan were previously proposed by Hussein, et al.: a short-term forecast (STF) based on a linear forecast model with a learning database on the reported cases in the previous 5–40 days, a long-term forecast (LTF) based on a mathematical formula that describes the COVID-19 pandemic situation, and a hybrid forecast (HF), which merges the STF and the LTF models. With the emergence of the OMICRON variant, the LTF failed to forecast the pandemic due to vital reasons related to the infection rate and the speed of the OMICRON variant, which is faster than the previous variants. However, the STF remained suitable for the sudden changes in epi curves because these simple models learn for the previous data of reported cases. In this study, we revisited these models by introducing a simple modification for the LTF and the HF model in order to better forecast the COVID-19 pandemic by considering the OMICRON variant. As another approach, we also tested a time-delay neural network (TDNN) to model the dataset. Interestingly, the new modification was to reuse the same function previously used in the LTF model after changing some parameters related to shift and time-lag. Surprisingly, the mathematical function type was still valid, suggesting this is the best one to be used for such pandemic situations of the same virus family. The TDNN was data-driven, and it was robust and successful in capturing the sudden change in +qPCR cases before and after of emergence of the OMICRON variant.
Collapse
|
15
|
Aguiar M, Anam V, Blyuss KB, Estadilla CDS, Guerrero BV, Knopoff D, Kooi BW, Srivastav AK, Steindorf V, Stollenwerk N. Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review. Phys Life Rev 2022; 40:65-92. [PMID: 35219611 PMCID: PMC8845267 DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2022.02.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. Mathematical models describing dengue fever epidemiological dynamics are found back from 1970. Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne infection caused by four antigenically related but distinct serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection, it is a major international public health concern. Although most of the cases are asymptomatic or mild, the disease immunological response is complex, with severe disease linked to the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) - a disease augmentation phenomenon where pre-existing antibodies to previous dengue infection do not neutralize but rather enhance the new infection. Here, we present a 10-year systematic review on mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology. Specifically, we review multi-strain frameworks describing host-to-host and vector-host transmission models and within-host models describing viral replication and the respective immune response. Following a detailed literature search in standard scientific databases, different mathematical models in terms of their scope, analytical approach and structural form, including model validation and parameter estimation using empirical data, are described and analyzed. Aiming to identify a consensus on infectious diseases modeling aspects that can contribute to public health authorities for disease control, we revise the current understanding of epidemiological and immunological factors influencing the transmission dynamics of dengue. This review provide insights on general features to be considered to model aspects of real-world public health problems, such as the current epidemiological scenario we are living in.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maíra Aguiar
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain; Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Povo, Trento, 38123, Italy; Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
| | - Vizda Anam
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Konstantin B Blyuss
- VU University, Faculty of Science, De Boelelaan 1085, NL 1081, HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Carlo Delfin S Estadilla
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Bruno V Guerrero
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Damián Knopoff
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain; Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios de Matemática CIEM, CONICET, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba, 5000, Argentina
| | - Bob W Kooi
- University of Sussex, Department of Mathematics, Falmer, Brighton, UK
| | - Akhil Kumar Srivastav
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Vanessa Steindorf
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, Bilbao, E-48009, Basque Country, Spain; Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Via Sommarive 14, Povo, Trento, 38123, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
How can risk of COVID-19 transmission be minimised in domiciliary care for older people: development, parameterisation and initial results of a simple mathematical model. Epidemiol Infect 2021. [PMCID: PMC8755531 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821002727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper proposes and analyses a stochastic model for the spread of an infectious disease transmitted between clients and care workers in the UK domiciliary (home) care setting. Interactions between clients and care workers are modelled using specially generated networks, with network parameters reflecting realistic patterns of care needs and visit allocation. These networks are then used to simulate a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered/dead (SEIR/D)-type epidemic dynamics with different numbers of infectious and recovery stages. The results indicate that with the same overall capacity provided by care workers, the minimum peak proportion of infection and the smallest overall size of infection are achieved for the highest proportion of overlap between visit allocation, i.e. when care workers have the highest chances of being allocated a visit to the same client they have visited before. An intuitive explanation of this is that while providing the required care coverage, maximising overlap in visit allocation reduces the possibility of an infectious care worker inadvertently spreading the infection to other clients. The model is generic and can be adapted to any directly transmitted infectious disease, such as, more recently, corona virus disease 2019, provided accurate estimates of disease parameters can be obtained from real data.
Collapse
|
17
|
Aguiar M, Van-Dierdonck JB, Mar J, Stollenwerk N. The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: A modeling study. J Adv Res 2021; 39:157-166. [PMID: 35777906 PMCID: PMC8592646 DOI: 10.1016/j.jare.2021.10.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Maíra Aguiar
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain; Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Italy; Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
| | | | - Javier Mar
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Debagoiena Integrated Healthcare Organisation, Research Unit, Arrasate-Mondragón, Guipúzcoa, Spain; Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastián, Guipúzcoa, Spain; Kronikgune Institute for Health Services Research, Economic Evaluation Unit, Barakaldo, Spain
| | - Nico Stollenwerk
- Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain; Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Trento, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Epidemic progression and vaccination in a heterogeneous population. Application to the Covid-19 epidemic. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2021. [PMCID: PMC8157369 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
The paper is devoted to a compartmental epidemiological model of infection progression in a heterogeneous population which consists of two groups with high disease transmission (HT) and low disease transmission (LT) potentials. Final size and duration of epidemic, the total and current maximal number of infected individuals are estimated depending on the structure of the population. It is shown that with the same basic reproduction number R0 in the beginning of epidemic, its further progression depends on the ratio between the two groups. Therefore, fitting the data in the beginning of epidemic and the determination of R0 are not sufficient to predict its long time behaviour. Available data on the Covid-19 epidemic allows the estimation of the proportion of the HT and LT groups. Estimated structure of the population is used for the investigation of the influence of vaccination on further epidemic development. The result of vaccination strongly depends on the proportion of vaccinated individuals between the two groups. Vaccination of the HT group acts to stop the epidemic and essentially decreases the total number of infected individuals at the end of epidemic and the current maximal number of infected individuals while vaccination of the LT group only acts to protect vaccinated individuals from further infection.
Collapse
|
19
|
Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID-19 post-lockdown dynamics. Sci Rep 2021; 11:13839. [PMID: 34226646 PMCID: PMC8257671 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93366-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Accepted: 06/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an epidemic is used as a public health guiding tool to evaluate the course of the epidemic, with the evolution of r(t) being the reasoning behind tightening and relaxing control measures over time. Here we investigate critical fluctuations around the epidemiological threshold, resembling new waves,
even when the community disease transmission rate \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{wasysym}
\usepackage{amsfonts}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{amsbsy}
\usepackage{mathrsfs}
\usepackage{upgreek}
\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}
\begin{document}$$\beta$$\end{document}β is not significantly changing. Without loss of generality, we use simple models that can be treated analytically and results are applied to more complex models describing COVID-19 epidemics. Our analysis shows that, rather than the supercritical regime (infectivity larger than a critical value, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{wasysym}
\usepackage{amsfonts}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{amsbsy}
\usepackage{mathrsfs}
\usepackage{upgreek}
\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}
\begin{document}$$\beta > \beta _c$$\end{document}β>βc) leading to new exponential growth of infection, the subcritical regime (infectivity smaller than a critical value, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{wasysym}
\usepackage{amsfonts}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{amsbsy}
\usepackage{mathrsfs}
\usepackage{upgreek}
\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}
\begin{document}$$\beta < \beta _c$$\end{document}β<βc) with small import is able to explain the dynamic behaviour of COVID-19 spreading after a lockdown lifting, with \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{wasysym}
\usepackage{amsfonts}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{amsbsy}
\usepackage{mathrsfs}
\usepackage{upgreek}
\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}
\begin{document}$$r(t) \approx 1$$\end{document}r(t)≈1 hovering around its threshold value.
Collapse
|
20
|
Hussein T, Hammad MH, Fung PL, Al-Kloub M, Odeh I, Zaidan MA, Wraith D. COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting. Vaccines (Basel) 2021; 9:728. [PMID: 34358145 PMCID: PMC8310337 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines9070728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves' occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tareq Hussein
- Department of Physics, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mahmoud H Hammad
- Department of Physics, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan
| | - Pak Lun Fung
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marwan Al-Kloub
- Department of Physics, Prince Faisal Technical College, Amman 11134, Jordan
| | - Issam Odeh
- Department of Basic Sciences, Al Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Amman 11733, Jordan
| | - Martha A Zaidan
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
- Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Darren Wraith
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Payedimarri AB, Concina D, Portinale L, Canonico M, Seys D, Vanhaecht K, Panella M. Prediction Models for Public Health Containment Measures on COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:4499. [PMID: 33922693 PMCID: PMC8123005 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18094499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Revised: 04/21/2021] [Accepted: 04/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have expanded their utilization in different fields of medicine. During the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, AI and ML were also applied for the evaluation and/or implementation of public health interventions aimed to flatten the epidemiological curve. This systematic review aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of AI and ML when applied to public health interventions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings showed that quarantine should be the best strategy for containing COVID-19. Nationwide lockdown also showed positive impact, whereas social distancing should be considered to be effective only in combination with other interventions including the closure of schools and commercial activities and the limitation of public transportation. Our findings also showed that all the interventions should be initiated early in the pandemic and continued for a sustained period. Despite the study limitation, we concluded that AI and ML could be of help for policy makers to define the strategies for containing the COVID-19 pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anil Babu Payedimarri
- Department of Translational Medicine (DIMET), Università del Piemonte Orientale, 28100 Novara, Italy; (D.C.); (M.P.)
| | - Diego Concina
- Department of Translational Medicine (DIMET), Università del Piemonte Orientale, 28100 Novara, Italy; (D.C.); (M.P.)
| | - Luigi Portinale
- Department of Science and Technological Innovation (DISIT) Università del Piemonte Orientale, 15121 Alessandria, Italy; (L.P.); (M.C.)
| | - Massimo Canonico
- Department of Science and Technological Innovation (DISIT) Università del Piemonte Orientale, 15121 Alessandria, Italy; (L.P.); (M.C.)
| | - Deborah Seys
- Leuven Institute for Healthcare Policy, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium; (D.S.); (K.V.)
| | - Kris Vanhaecht
- Leuven Institute for Healthcare Policy, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium; (D.S.); (K.V.)
- Department of Quality Management, University Hospitals Leuven, University of Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
| | - Massimiliano Panella
- Department of Translational Medicine (DIMET), Università del Piemonte Orientale, 28100 Novara, Italy; (D.C.); (M.P.)
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Vrotsou K, Rotaeche R, Mateo-Abad M, Machón M, Vergara I. Variables associated with COVID-19 severity: an observational study of non-paediatric confirmed cases from the general population of the Basque Country, Spain. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e049066. [PMID: 33795313 PMCID: PMC8024058 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Revised: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To investigate which were the most relevant sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with COVID-19 severity, and uncover how their inter-relations may have affected such severity. DESIGN A retrospective observational study based on electronic health record data. PARTICIPANTS Individuals ≥14 years old with a positive PCR or serology test, between 28 February and 31 May 2020, belonging to the Basque Country (Spain) public health system. Institutionalised and individuals admitted to a hospital at home unit were excluded from the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Three severity categories were established: primary care, hospital/intensive care unit admission and death. RESULTS A total of n=14 197 cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most variables presented statistically significant associations with the outcome (p<0.0001). The Classification and Regression Trees recursive partitioning methodology (based on n=13 792) suggested that among all associations, those with, age, sex, stratification of patient healthcare complexity, chronic consumption of blood and blood-forming organ, and nervous system drugs, as well as the total number of chronic Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical types were the most relevant. Psychosis also emerged as a potential factor. CONCLUSIONS Older cases are more likely to experience more severe outcomes. However, the sex, underlying health status and chronic drug consumption may interfere and alter the ageing effect. Understanding the factors related to the outcome severity is of key importance when designing and promoting public health intervention plans for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kalliopi Vrotsou
- Primary Care Group, Biodonostia Institute for Health Research, Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
- Research Network in Health Services in Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Kronikgune Health Services Research Institute, Baracaldo, Spain
| | - Rafael Rotaeche
- Alza Health Center, Osakidetza-Basque Health Service, Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain
| | - Maider Mateo-Abad
- Research Network in Health Services in Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Kronikgune Health Services Research Institute, Baracaldo, Spain
| | - Mónica Machón
- Primary Care Group, Biodonostia Institute for Health Research, Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
- Research Network in Health Services in Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Kronikgune Health Services Research Institute, Baracaldo, Spain
| | - Itziar Vergara
- Primary Care Group, Biodonostia Institute for Health Research, Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
- Research Network in Health Services in Chronic Diseases (REDISSEC), Kronikgune Health Services Research Institute, Baracaldo, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Blyuss KB, Kyrychko YN. Effects of latency and age structure on the dynamics and containment of COVID-19. J Theor Biol 2021; 513:110587. [PMID: 33450286 DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.25.20079848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2020] [Revised: 11/19/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
In this paper we develop an SEIR-type model of COVID-19, with account for two particular aspects: non-exponential distribution of incubation and recovery periods, as well as age structure of the population. For the mean-field model, which does not distinguish between different age groups, we demonstrate that including a more realistic Gamma distribution of incubation and recovery periods may not have an effect on the total number of deaths and the overall size of an epidemic, but it has a major effect in terms of increasing the peak numbers of infected and critical care cases, as well as on changing the timescales of an epidemic, both in terms of time to reach the peak, and the overall duration of an outbreak. In order to obtain more accurate estimates of disease progression and investigate different strategies for introducing and lifting the lockdown, we have also considered an age-structured version of the model, which has allowed us to include more accurate data on age-specific rates of hospitalisation and COVID-19 related mortality. Applying this model to three comparable neighbouring regions in the UK has delivered some fascinating insights regarding the effect of lockdown in regions with different population structure. We have discovered that for a fixed lockdown duration, the timing of its start is very important in the sense that the second epidemic wave after lifting the lockdown can be significantly smaller or larger depending on the specific population structure. Also, the later the fixed-duration lockdown is introduced, the smaller is the resulting final number of deaths at the end of the outbreak. When the lockdown is introduced simultaneously for all regions, increasing lockdown duration postpones and slightly reduces the epidemic peak, though without noticeable differences in peak magnitude between different lockdown durations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K B Blyuss
- Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK.
| | - Y N Kyrychko
- Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Blyuss KB, Kyrychko YN. Effects of latency and age structure on the dynamics and containment of COVID-19. J Theor Biol 2021; 513:110587. [PMID: 33450286 PMCID: PMC8143904 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2020] [Revised: 11/19/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
In this paper we develop an SEIR-type model of COVID-19, with account for two particular aspects: non-exponential distribution of incubation and recovery periods, as well as age structure of the population. For the mean-field model, which does not distinguish between different age groups, we demonstrate that including a more realistic Gamma distribution of incubation and recovery periods may not have an effect on the total number of deaths and the overall size of an epidemic, but it has a major effect in terms of increasing the peak numbers of infected and critical care cases, as well as on changing the timescales of an epidemic, both in terms of time to reach the peak, and the overall duration of an outbreak. In order to obtain more accurate estimates of disease progression and investigate different strategies for introducing and lifting the lockdown, we have also considered an age-structured version of the model, which has allowed us to include more accurate data on age-specific rates of hospitalisation and COVID-19 related mortality. Applying this model to three comparable neighbouring regions in the UK has delivered some fascinating insights regarding the effect of lockdown in regions with different population structure. We have discovered that for a fixed lockdown duration, the timing of its start is very important in the sense that the second epidemic wave after lifting the lockdown can be significantly smaller or larger depending on the specific population structure. Also, the later the fixed-duration lockdown is introduced, the smaller is the resulting final number of deaths at the end of the outbreak. When the lockdown is introduced simultaneously for all regions, increasing lockdown duration postpones and slightly reduces the epidemic peak, though without noticeable differences in peak magnitude between different lockdown durations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K B Blyuss
- Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK.
| | - Y N Kyrychko
- Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Kyrychko YN, Blyuss KB, Brovchenko I. Mathematical modelling of the dynamics and containment of COVID-19 in Ukraine. Sci Rep 2020; 10:19662. [PMID: 33184338 PMCID: PMC7665000 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-76710-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2020] [Accepted: 10/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has already brought unprecedented challenges for public health and resulted in huge numbers of cases and deaths worldwide. In the absence of effective vaccine, different countries have employed various other types of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of this disease, including quarantines and lockdowns, tracking, tracing and isolation of infected individuals, and social distancing measures. Effectiveness of these and other measures of disease containment and prevention to a large degree depends on good understanding of disease dynamics, and robust mathematical models play an important role in forecasting its future dynamics. In this paper we focus on Ukraine, one of Europe's largest countries, and develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics, using latest data on parameters characterising clinical features of disease. For improved accuracy, our model includes age-stratified disease parameters, as well as age- and location-specific contact matrices to represent contacts. We show that the model is able to provide an accurate short-term forecast for the numbers and age distribution of cases and deaths. We also simulated different lockdown scenarios, and the results suggest that reducing work contacts is more efficient at reducing the disease burden than reducing school contacts, or implementing shielding for people over 60.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yuliya N Kyrychko
- Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK.
| | | | - Igor Brovchenko
- Institute of Mathematical Machines and Systems Problems, Glushkov Av. 42, Kyiv, 03187, Ukraine
| |
Collapse
|