Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050

Health Literacy and Medication Adherence Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Jordan: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Improving health literacy has been found to play a significant role in enhancing medication adherence in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Purpose

The present study aims to evaluate health literacy and its association with medication adherence among diabetic patients in Jordan.

Patients and Methods

This cross-sectional study included 400 diabetic patients, predominantly female (68.8%), with a median age of 58 years, attending the endocrinology outpatient clinic at Albasheer Hospital in Amman, Jordan, between August and December 2023. Patients were recruited using convenience sampling, including those aged 18 and older, literate, diagnosed with T2DM for at least one year, and on at least one medication for T2DM. Sample size was calculated based on the Events Per Variable (EPV) criterion to ensure sufficient power for logistic regression analysis. Data were collected using two validated instruments: the Jordanian Diabetic Health Literacy Questionnaire (JDHLQ), assessing health literacy, and the Medication Adherence Report Scale (MARS-5), measuring medication adherence. A binary logistic regression model was constructed to identify variables associated with adherence levels.

Results

The study enrolled 400 diabetic patients (females =68.8%). While most of the participants (70.3%) reported high adherence levels, results revealed a window for health literacy improvement as the median for the JDHLQ score was 22 (ranging from 18 to 25) out of a maximum possible score of 32. More than half of the participants replied "never" to "I forget to take my medications", followed by "I stop taking my medications for a while".

Conclusion

The binary regression model revealed that a higher JDHLQ score significantly increased the odds of a high adherence level. The significant association between improved health literacy and medication adherence necessitates the implementation of educational campaigns for enhancing literacy and hence medication adherence among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Prevalence and correlates of insomnia and fatigue in patients with type 2 diabetes in Jordan

Objective: The present study examined the prevalence and correlates of insomnia and fatigue in patients with type-2 diabetes in Jordan.Methods: This was a cross-sectional online study involving a convenience sample of 390 patients with type-2 diabetes. Insomnia was assessed by the Insomnia-Severity Index (ISI-A) and fatigue by the Brief Fatigue Inventory (BFI-A).Results: Severe insomnia was present in 132 patients (33.8%), and was correlated with length of diabetes (diagnosis >5 years) (OR = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.19-3.81, P = 0.01), presence of uncontrolled diabetes (OR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.45-2.69, P < 0.001), taking gabapentin (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.07-4.01, P = 0.003), and age (<40 years) (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.13-0.69, P = 0.005). Significant fatigue was also prevalent and correlated with gender (female) (B = 9.25, t = 4.48, P < 0.001), age (<40 years) (B = 7.56, t = 2.56, P = 0.01), a diagnosis of hypertension (B = 4.74, t = 2.03, P = 0.04), uncontrolled diabetes (B = 7.21, t = 4.82, P < 0.001), and taking a sulfonylurea (B = 8.03, t = 3.37, P < 0.001), carbamazepine (B = 10.93, t = 2.65, P = 0.008), or gabapentin (B = 12.60, t = 3.83, P < 0.001).Conclusion: Given the high prevalence of insomnia and fatigue in this population, increased attention by primary healthcare providers to these symptoms in diabetic patients is required, particularly in developing countries such as Jordan.

Oxidative stress and type 2 diabetes: the development and the pathogenesis, Jordanian cross-sectional study

Accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) can disrupt the antioxidant defense system, leading to oxidative stress that leads to pathological damage to vital human organs, including hormone-producing glands. Normal physiological function is subsequently disrupted and disorders such as Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) may develop. The critical role of the antioxidant defense system in counteracting ROS and mitigating oxidative stress is fundamental to understanding the pathogenesis of T2DM. In our study, we monitored the oxidant/antioxidant status in a selected Jordanian population to further elucidate this relationship. Our results show higher serum levels of Malondialdehyde (MDA); 0.230 ± 0.05 and 0.207 ± 0.06 μmol/l for the diabetic and the obese groups, respectively, relative to 0.135 ± 0.04 μmol/l for the non-obese healthy group. Lower activity of Catalase (CAT) was recorded among the diabetic (9.2 ± 3.2) and obese groups (11.0 ± 2.8), compared to the non-obese healthy group (12.1 ± 3.5). Significant elevations (P < 0.05) were observed in uric acid concentrations in diabetic and obese subjects: 451 ± 57 mg/dl and 430 ± 51, respectively, versus 342 ± 57 mg/dl in the non-obese healthy group. Moreover, no significant differences were obtained between all the studied groups for the serum albumin and total protein concentrations. Our findings demonstrate the potential role of oxidative stress in the development and occurrence of T2DM.

Risk factors for chronic kidney disease in middle eastern patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A cross-sectional study using the KDIGO classification

AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate risk factors for CKD progression across the kidney disease-Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO)categories in a Middle Eastern population beyond hyperglycemia as emphasized by KDIGO guidelines which classifying CKD by cause and severity.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study targeted 1603 patients with T2DM. Risk factors for CKD progression were determined using odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Overall, 35.5 %, 31.7 %, and 32.8 % of patients were classified as low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-/very high-/highest-risk, respectively. Several factors were associated with high/very high/highest risk categorization, including being aged >45 years (OR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.36-2.49; P < 0.001), male gender (OR: 1.87, 95 % CI: 1.38-2.54; P < 0.001), hypertension (OR: 3.66, 95 % CI: 2.32-5.78; P < 0.001), and T2DM duration of ≥15 years (OR: 3.2, 95 % CI: 2.27-4.5; P < 0.001). Patients with more concurrent risk factors were notably represented in the high/very high/highest risk category.

CONCLUSIONS

Male patients, older patients, and those with comorbid hypertension, longstanding T2DM, and additional concurrent risk factors have a significantly higher risk of advanced CKD. Such findings should be considered when planning management approaches for patients with CKD.

Development and Validation of the Jordanian Diabetic Health Literacy Questionnaire: Enhancing Diabetes Management in Arabic-Speaking Populations

(1) Background: Amidst the global rise in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), effective management of the disease has become increasingly important. Health literacy, particularly in non-English speaking populations, plays a crucial role in this management. To address the lack of suitable tools for Arabic-speaking diabetic patients, this study developed and validated the Jordanian Diabetic Health Literacy Questionnaire (JDHLQ). (2) Methods: A sample of 400 diabetic patients from Jordan, with a balance in gender, age, and educational background, was recruited from an endocrinology outpatient clinic. The JDHLQ, consisting of informative and communicative sections, underwent rigorous validation. Utilizing principal component analysis and Rasch analysis, the JDHL's reliability and validity were evaluated. (3) Results: The results showed moderate proficiency in understanding and communicating diabetes-related information and confirmed the reliability and validity of the JDHLQ. (4) Conclusions: These findings emphasize the importance of culturally appropriate health literacy tools in enhancing patient understanding, engagement, and overall management of T2DM in Arabic-speaking communities.

Factors Affecting the Awareness of Diabetic Retinopathy: An Observational Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic metabolic disease characterized by elevated blood glucose levels. Over time, it can lead to serious complications in the eyes, heart, blood vessels, kidneys, and nerves, being the leading cause of blindness among working-age patients.

AIM AND METHODS

This descriptive observational cross-sectional study aims to evaluate the factors affecting the awareness of the general adult diabetic population about their chronic disease and its complications. A survey was distributed anonymously among diabetic patients in different parts of Jordan over four months (January 2023-April 2023), targeting diabetic patients (DMT2 or adults DMT1). The link was sent via WhatsApp to willing candidates. Data collected included age, sex, region, education, home blood sugar (BS) testing, knowledge about cumulative blood sugar test (HbA1c), eye affection by DM, optician role, and doctor and nutritionist follow-up visits. A chi-squared test or Fisher's exact test explored the association between categorical data; a z-test was applied for column proportion differences. An alpha level of 0.05 was deemed statistically significant. IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 28 (Released 2021; IBM Corp., Armonk, New York) was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 447 diabetic adults aged 18-80 years. The majority were school-educated or school leavers (278; 62.2%); 20 (4.5%) held a master's or PhD degree. The largest group had DM for one to five years. Insulin was the sole treatment for 188 patients (42.1%), while oral hypoglycemic agents (OHA) were used by 170 patients (38%) as the only anti-DM medication. A total of 174 patients (38.9%) had never been seen by an ophthalmologist, and 153 (34.2%) believed an optometrist checkup suffices. Although 381 (85.2%) reported knowing DM affects the eyes, 272 (60.9%) believed they needed to see an ophthalmologist only when experiencing eye symptoms. Less than half (186; 41.6%) had an HbA1c reading of 7% or less. There was a significant correlation between education level and awareness of DM and diabetic retinopathy (DR): HbA1c, regular home BS checkups, early DR symptoms, and optometrist visits. Significant variations in awareness were noted across Jordan's major areas. Diabetics with abnormal HbA1c who visited a nutritionist were almost triple those who did not. The main information source about DM and DR was the treating physician for 298 (66.7%) respondents.

CONCLUSION

Awareness of DM and DR in Jordan is not satisfactory for assisting patients in their long journey with minimal complications. A national awareness campaign utilizing social media and a sustainable screening program prioritizing the north, south, and middle regions of Jordan are needed.

Metabolomics and in-vitro bioactivities studies of fermented Musa paradisiaca pulp: A potential alpha-amylase inhibitor

The in-vitro synthesis of bio-compounds via fermentation is a promising route for bioactive molecules intended for disease control and management. Therefore, this study evaluated the effect of fermentation on the antioxidants, antihyperglycemic and anti-inflammatory properties and the resultant chemometric phytochemical profiles of unripe plantain fruits. The results revealed that Escherichia coli and Propionibacterium spp. are suspected as the key fermenters. The E coli showed negative results to the pathogenicity test; Propionibacterium appeared to be opportunistic. A significant increase in the total polyphenols and protein and decreased flavonoids was recorded in the phytochemical profile of the methanolic extract of the fermented unripe plantain pulp; however, the ascorbic acid content was not significantly altered. The 1H NMR fingerprint showed that there is a closely related chemical shift among the shorter fermentation time (days 2-6) and the unfermented, while the more extended fermentation periods (days 7-12) with enhanced bioactivities were closely related based on the chemometrics analyses. Furthermore, the UPLC-QTOF-MS analysis annotated the presence of bioactive compounds in the day-9 fermented sample: polyhydroxy glucose conjugates (3-Methoxy-4-hydroxyphenyl 6-O-(3,4,5-trihydroxybenzoyl)-beta-D-glucopyranoside), short chain peptide (leucyl-glycyl-glycine), amino acid derivatives (4-Aminophenylalanine, and N-Acetylhistidine), linear and cyclic fatty acid derivatives (palmitoyl putrescine, ricinoleic acid, phytosphingosine, gabalid, rubrenoic acid, 2-aminocyclopentanecarboxylic and cystodienioc acid). The synergistic effect of these newly formed compounds and the increase in the phenolic content of the day-9 fermented unripe plantain may account for its more potent antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and antihyperglycemic activity. Therefore, the products obtained from the day 9 fermentation of unripe plantain pulp may serve as potential nutraceutical agents against gastro-enteric sugar digestion and absorption and sugar-induced oxidative stress, inflammation and metabolic disease.

The Circassians and the Chechens in Jordan: results of a decade of epidemiological and genetic studies

Circassians and Chechens in Jordan, both with Caucasian ancestry, are genetically isolated due to high rate of endogamous marriages. Recent interest in these populations has led to studies on their genetic similarities, differences, and epidemiological differences in various diseases. Research has explored their predisposition to conditions like diabetes, hypertension, and cancer. Moreover, pharmacogenetic (PGx) studies have also investigated medication response variations within these populations, and forensic studies have further contributed to understanding these populations. In this review article, we first discuss the background of these minority groups. We then show the results of a principle component analysis (PCA) to investigate the genetic relationships between Circassian and Chechen populations living in Jordan. We here present a summary of the findings from the 10 years of research conducted on them. The review article provides a comprehensive summary of research findings that are truly valuable for understanding the unique genetic characteristics, diseases' prevalence, and medication responses among Circassians and Chechens living in Jordan. We believe that gaining deeper comprehension of the root causes of various diseases and developing effective treatment methods that benefit the society as a whole are imperative to engaging a wide range of ethnic groups in genetic research.

Strengthening Primary Healthcare in Jordan for Achieving Universal Health Coverage: A Need for Family Health Team Approach

Achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a strategic objective of the Jordanian government and has been prioritized in its strategies and plans. However, there are several challenges affecting primary healthcare in Jordan and the health system in general that prevent Jordan from achieving UHC. This paper highlights the importance of team-based care in the form of Family Health Teams (FHTs) to realize Jordan's goal of achieving UHC. FHTs are a team-based approach that brings together diverse professionals to provide a comprehensive, efficient, patient-centered primary care system that meets the changing needs of Jordan's population and refugees. However, the implementation of FHT may encounter obstacles, including individual, organizational, institutional, and external barriers. To overcome such obstacles, several actions and processes need to be taken, including political commitment and leadership, implementing good governance and policy frameworks, allocating resources and funding, multisectoral collaboration, and engagement of communities and stakeholders. The successful implementation of FHTs requires participation from government officials, parliamentarians, civil society, and influential community, religious, and business leaders. A strategic policy framework, effective oversight, coalition building, regulation, attention to system design, and accountability are also essential. In conclusion, adopting the FHT approach in Jordan's Primary Healthcare system offers a promising path towards achieving UHC, improving healthcare access, quality, and efficiency while addressing the unique challenges faced by the country's healthcare system.

Relationship of Serum Vitamin D Levels With Diabetic Foot in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background and aims: Diabetic foot is one of the most severe complications in patients with diabetes mellitus and has been linked to 25-OH-vitamin D status. This study aims to determine the prevalence of 25-OH-vitamin D deficiency and its association with diabetic foot. Methods: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into the diabetic foot group (n = 95) and the non-diabetic foot group (n = 388). Weight, height, and waist circumference were measured. The 25-OH-vitamin D and the other biochemical tests were extracted from the electronic medical records. The difference in clinical parameters between the diabetic foot group and the non-diabetic foot group was analyzed, and the risk factors of the diabetic foot group were analyzed using logistic regression. Results: The prevalence of 25-OH-vitamin D deficiency was 44.6%, accounting for 57.9% of all the diabetic foot group patients and only 41.0% of the non-diabetic foot group patients. The mean serum 25-OH-vitamin D level was significantly different between the diabetic foot group and the non-diabetic foot group (19.8 ± 9.5 vs 24.1 ± 11.8; P = .011). Serum 25-OH-vitamin D and B12 were found to have a significant positive correlation (r = 0.410, P = <.01). The 25-OH-vitamin D level and body mass index were independently associated with diabetic foot (P = .043, OR = 1.21; P = .009, OR =  1.47), respectively. Conclusions: The 25-OH-vitamin D deficiency was higher in the diabetic foot group. More research is needed to understand the role of 25-OH-vitamin D in the development of diabetic foot.

Assessing Knowledge on Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Child Health

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a diagnosis of glucose intolerance during pregnancy. The risk of type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity for the child and mother increases when GDM develops. Preventing the development of GDM could help lower the prevalence of obesity and type II diabetes mellitus morbidity rates in children of affected mothers. The purpose of the study was to identify the awareness level of females ages 12 and 51 years, on the long-term risk of obesity and T2DM on their children in Australia and Samoa. This is a quantitative study involving 202 females, from across Australia and Samoa, between April 2021 and November 2021, comparing the level of knowledge between a developing and developed country. In Australia and Samoa, 15% (n=16) and 34% (n=33) of females respectively, were aware of the long-term complications of GDM on their children. These findings indicate that there is inadequate knowledge regarding the long-term consequences associated with GDM on both the risk for T2DM in women and the risk for long-term complications for their children. The greatest source of information in both countries was obtained from physicians or midwives, 52% (n=105). This supports the need for increased education on GDM, through social media, the internet, and community health professionals. By increasing awareness of GDM and implementing preventive strategies, it may be possible to reduce the prevalence of obesity and T2DM in Australia and Samoa.

Effect of zinc supplementation on blood glucose level in different age groups of diabetes type 2

Background: Studies on humans have revealed the beneficial effects of zinc (Zn) supplementation in patients with type-2 diabetes. Aim: The present study was designed to investigate the effects of zinc supplementation on blood glucose level in type-2 diabetic patients and determine the interaction between age and zinc supplementation on type-2 diabetic patients. Methods: A randomized placebo-control trial conducted in Bashir Hospital of Sialkot, Allama Iqbal Memorial Hospital Sialkot and Civil Hospital of Daska, Sialkot. 144 diabetic patients were selected including an expected drop-out rate of 20%. All the participants were randomly divided into Group 1 (Treatment group with intervention given Zn tablets 20 mg/day) and Group 2 (control group with placebo effect). Each group was further divided into 2 age categories Category 1 (30-50 years of age) and Category 2 (51-70 Years of age). Demographic data, Anthropometric measurements, 24-h dietary recall, serum blood glucose analysis, HbA1C, and serum zinc levels were recorded at the beginning (0 day) and end of the study (60 days). Results: Final fasting serum glucose levels were significantly lowered in group 1 with (p < 0.05) as compared to group 2, but interestingly, results were significant (p < 0.05) in the older age group (51-70 years) as compared to their younger age counterparts (30-50 years) of group2. A similar trend was also found in the HbA1c, serum Zn levels and BMI of the participants. Conclusion: Results implied the possible phenomenon of better response to Zn supplementation among aged patients as compared to younger counterparts, which may suggest higher Zn demands with advanced age.

Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses

Aims

To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.

Methods

A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.

Results

All intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.

Conclusions

Implementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.

Development and implementation of interprofessional education activity among health professions students in Jordan: A pilot investigation

Implementing interprofessional education (IPE) in health professions curricula requires considerations of students' attitudes and readiness. Interventional studies that assess students' perceptions about IPE are needed. As IPE is an emerging concept in Jordan, our study aimed at exploring the attitudes of health profession students about IPE and collaborative practice before and after implementing an IPE activity. Students completed the validated Interprofessional Attitudes Scale (IPAS) before and after completing a 3-hour interprofessional activity. Students' attitudes toward IPE were compared using the subscales and total IPAS scores. A total of 41 health profession students attending the professional health programs of Doctor of Pharmacy, Medicine, Nursing, Nutrition, or Pharmacy completed IPAS before and after conducting the interprofessional activity. Students reported positive attitudes toward IPE prior to the activity. Significant increases were observed in IPAS scores from pre- (median [interquartile range: IQR] score = 4.19 [0.61]) to post-activity (median [IQR] = 4.48 [0.65]), and in its subscales (teamwork, roles and responsibilities, diversity and ethics, and community-centeredness). Students' experience with the IPE activity was positive and optimistic. The findings revealed for the first time the perception and readiness of health profession students toward IPE and collaborative practice in Jordan. This readiness can help draw a path for strategic integration of IPE in health profession curricula.

Prevalence, characteristics and risk factors of diabetic retinopathy in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Jordan: a cross-sectional study

Objectives

To measure the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes, to define their characteristics, and identify the associated risk factors.

Methods

We performed a cross sectional study of 1316 adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who attended an ophthalmology clinic. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were analyzed. Diabetic retinopathy (DR) was diagnosed using a complete ophthalmic evaluation, including a fundic examination. Two regression models were constructed to identify the risk factors associated with DR and the parameters associated with the stage of retinopathy.

Results

Men accounted for 774 (58.8%) of the participants. The prevalence of DR was 28.2% (371 participants). DR was significantly more common in participants who were ≥60 years old, were women, had had diabetes for >10 years, were taking insulin, were not taking metformin, had a body mass index >30 kg/m², were current smokers, or had a history of hypertension. Advanced stages of DR were more common in participants in the later stages of nephropathy and with albuminuria.

Conclusions

Poor glycemic control, smoking, and advanced diabetic kidney disease are most closely associated with retinopathy. Further longitudinal studies are necessary to identify the mechanisms underlying these relationships and to guide community-based interventions.

Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050.

METHODS

Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020.

RESULTS

T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050.

CONCLUSION

T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.

Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar's 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources.

RESULTS

Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20-79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar-for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial.

CONCLUSIONS

T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.

Ramadan fasting and weight change trajectories: Time-varying association of weight during and after Ramadan in low-income and refugee populations

Obesity is a significant driver of the global burden of non-communicable diseases. Fasting is one approach that has been shown to improve health outcomes. However, the effects of Ramadan fasting differ in that the type, frequency, quantity, and time of food consumption vary. This phenomenon requires in-depth evaluation considering that 90% of Muslims (~2 billion people) fast during Ramadan. To address this issue, we evaluated the pattern of weight change during and following Ramadan for a total of 52 weeks. The study was conducted in Amman, Jordan. Between 2012 and 2015, 913 participants were recruited as part of a trial investigating the efficacy of a weight loss intervention among those with or at risk for diabetes. Weight was measured weekly starting at the beginning of Ramadan, and changes were analyzed using discrete and spline models adjusted for age, sex, and trial group. Results show slight weight gain within the first two weeks and weight loss in the subsequent weeks. During the first week of Ramadan, the estimate for a weight reduction was 0·427 kg, (95% CI: -0·007, 0·861), increasing to 1·567 kg, (95% CI: 2·547, 3·527) at week 26. There was clear evidence of gradual weight gain from about 4 to 15 weeks and a drop towards the end of the investigation at week 28 (-0·12kg, 95% CI: -0·89, 0·56). Our results show that weight changes occurred during and after Ramadan. Weight fluctuations may affect health risks, and thus, findings from this study can inform interventions. Public health agencies could leverage this period of dietary change to sustain some of the benefits of fasting. The authors (DEZ, EFD) acknowledge the Mulago Foundation, the Horace W. Goldsmith Foundation, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the World Diabetes Foundation. TRIAL REGISTRATION. Clinicaltrials.gov registry identifier: NCT01596244.

A systematic review of interventions to promote physical activity in six Gulf countries

Physical activity (PA) levels are low in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC; Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). We carried out a systematic review (PROSPERO registration number 131817) to assess the effect of interventions to increase PA levels in this region. We also assessed their effects on anthropometry and cardiovascular risk. A systematic search of six databases (Medline, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, CINAHL, Cochrane, Web of Science) was performed to identify randomized and non-randomized intervention studies performed in adults and children published between January 1985 and November 2020. We included studies published in English or Arabic, and included PA interventions regardless of setting, delivery, and duration. The primary outcomes were changes in PA duration and intensity. Secondary outcomes included anthropometric measures (e.g., weight, body mass index) and cardiovascular risk profiles (e.g., lipid measures, blood glucose). Two independent reviewers screened studies in accordance with pre-determined criteria, extracted data, assessed risk of bias (Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 and Newcastle Ottawa Scale) and undertook a narrative synthesis. From 13,026 records identified, 14 studies were included. Nine studies focussed exclusively on changing PA behaviour, resulting in statistically significant increases in step count ranging from an additional 757 steps/day (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-1,513) to 3,853 steps/day (95% CI 3,703-4,002). Five identified studies were multi-component lifestyle interventions, targeting people at higher risk (due to obesity or type 2 diabetes). Evidence for increases in PA from multi-component studies was limited, although improvements were seen in outcomes e.g. body weight and blood lipid levels. In conclusion, relatively few studies have focussed on changing PA behaviour, despite the urgent need in the GCC. Limited evidence suggested that pedometer-based programmes encouraging step counting and walking were effective in promoting PA, at least in the short term. Policies to roll out such interventions should be implemented and evaluated.

The Therapeutic Effects of Mild to Moderate Intensity Aerobic Exercise on Glycemic Control in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

INTRODUCTION

It has been recommended that physical activity be a part of treatment and management regimens of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and research has shown that regular physical exercise facilitates glycemic control in these patients. In this analysis, our aim was to systematically show the therapeutic effects of mild to moderate intensity aerobic exercise on glycemic control in patients with T2DM.

METHODS

From February to April 2021, we searched the https://www.clinicaltrials.gov , EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science and Google Scholar databases for trials that showed the effects of aerobic exercise on glycemic control in patients with T2DM. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) was the endpoint in the analysis. The RevMan version 5.4 statistical program was used for statistical analysis, and the mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) used to represent the data following analysis.

RESULTS

Eighteen trials involving 972 participants with T2DM were included in this meta-analysis, of whom 523 were assigned to an exercise group and 449 were assigned to a control group. A comparison pre- versus post-aerobic exercise showed that aerobic exercise significantly improved glycemic control (HbA1c) (MD 0.35, 95% CI 0.23-0.48; P = 0.00001) in these patients with T2DM. A second comparison, T2DM participants in the experimental group post-exercise versus T2DM participants from the control group at the end of the follow-up, also showed that aerobic exercise significantly improved glycemic control (MD - 0.46, 95% CI - 0.69 to - 0.22; P = 0.0001). However, a comparison of HbA1c of T2DM participants in the control group at the beginning of the study compared to those at the end of follow-up did not show any significant improvement in glycemic control (MD 0.08, 95% CI - 0.05 to 0.21; P = 0.21).

CONCLUSION

The current analysis showed that mild to moderate intensity aerobic exercise significantly improved glycemic control in patients with T2DM. Patients with T2DM who regularly participated in aerobic exercise activities had a better control of their disease than those who were not on a regular aerobic exercise regimen. These results lead to the recommendation that at least mild to moderate intensity aerobic exercise should be included in the treatment and management regimens of patients with T2DM.

Adapting Diabetes Risk Scores for Jordan

Background

Diabetes risk score can be used as a simple non-invasive screening tool for identifying people with high risk of diabetes. This study aimed to assess the predictive power of various risk-scoring systems to predict pre-diabetes and diabetes in Jordanian adults.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted among people attending 54 primary health care centers distributed throughout the 12 governorates of Jordan. Diabetes risk scores using the American Diabetes Association risk score, Canadian risk score, Finland risk score (FINDRISC), British Risk score, German and Australian risk score were calculated for each patient. Fasting blood sugar (FBS) was measured for all participants.

Results

This study included 392 participants: 231 patients with normal fasting blood sugar (FBG), 101 patients with pre-diabetes and 60 patients with type 2 diabetes. The FINDRISC, British, and Australian risk scores were strongly inter-correlated and weakly correlated with other systems’ risk scores. Moreover, they correlated moderately and significantly with FBS. In contrast, other systems risk scores were associated weekly with FBS. Based on receiving operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and multivariate logistic regression, the FINDRISC risk score was superior to other risk scores to predict high FBS and identify pre-diabetes and diabetes.

Conclusion

FINDRISC risk score performed the best compared to other risk scores for predicting pre-diabetes, diabetes, and absence of diabetes. We recommend using the FINDRISC risk score assessment in Jordan.

Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors.

RESULTS

The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020-2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one-third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman.