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El-Khoury R, Chemaitelly H, Alaama AS, Hermez JG, Nagelkerke N, Abu-Raddad LJ. Hepatitis C risk score as a tool to identify individuals with HCV infection: a demonstration and cross-sectional epidemiological study in Egypt. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e085506. [PMID: 38950989 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-085506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/03/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country. METHODS We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores. RESULTS The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rayane El-Khoury
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ahmed S Alaama
- Department of Communicable Diseases, World Health Organisation Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Joumana G Hermez
- Department of Communicable Diseases, World Health Organisation Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Nico Nagelkerke
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
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Abu-Dayyeh I, Chemaitelly H, Ghunaim M, Hasan T, Abdelnour A, Abu-Raddad LJ. Patterns and trends of hepatitis C virus infection in Jordan: an observational study. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1280427. [PMID: 38146470 PMCID: PMC10749371 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1280427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection levels in Jordan remain uncertain. No HCV national population-based survey has ever been conducted in the country. To meet the World Health Organization's target of reducing HCV incidence to ≤5 per 100,000 people per year by 2030, it is essential to determine the infection levels, identify affected individuals and populations, and provide appropriate treatment using direct-acting antivirals to individuals carrying the virus. Methods The study utilized the HCV testing database of 28,798 attendees of Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories in Jordan, covering the period from January 19, 2010, to May 26, 2023. Cross-sectional and cohort study analyses were conducted, including estimating HCV antibody (Ab) prevalence, examining associations with HCV Ab positivity, determining the HCV viremic rate, and estimating HCV incidence rate using a retrospective cohort study design. Results A total of 27,591 individuals, with a median age of 31.3 and 52.9% being females, underwent HCV Ab testing, while 1,450 individuals, with a median age of 42.2 and 32.8% being females, underwent HCV RNA PCR testing. The study sample HCV Ab prevalence was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7-4.2%). After applying probability weights, the weighted HCV Ab prevalence was 5.8% (95% CI: 4.6-7.3%). Age was strongly associated with HCV Ab positivity, particularly among individuals aged 50 years or older, who had 10-fold higher odds of being HCV Ab positive compared to those aged 10-19 years. Males had 2.41-fold higher odds of testing positive for HCV Ab compared to females. The HCV viremic rate was 54.1% (95% CI: 43.0-65.0%). The cumulative incidence of HCV infection, after 5 years of follow-up, was estimated to be 0.41% (95% CI: 0.17-0.99%). The HCV incidence rate was calculated at 1.19 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.50-2.87). Conclusion Prevalence and incidence of HCV infection were substantial, estimated at ~5% and 1 per 1,000 person-years, respectively, and highlighting the presence of core groups actively engaged in the virus' acquisition and transmission. The high observed viremic rate indicates the need for expanding HCV treatment efforts to effectively control HCV transmission in Jordan. Utilizing quality diagnostic laboratories and innovative testing strategies is key to identifying infection carriers and facilitating linkage to treatment and care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Issa Abu-Dayyeh
- Department of Research and Development, Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
| | - Mohammad Ghunaim
- Department of Research and Development, Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan
| | - Thaer Hasan
- Department of Research and Development, Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan
| | - Amid Abdelnour
- Department of Research and Development, Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan
| | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
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3
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Alareeki A, Awad SF, Critchley JA, El-Nahas KG, Al-Hamaq AO, Alyafei SA, Al-Thani MHJ, Abu-Raddad LJ. Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1167807. [PMID: 37404285 PMCID: PMC10315912 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1167807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Aims To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris. Methods A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status. Results All intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively. Conclusions Implementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asalah Alareeki
- Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | - Susanne F. Awad
- Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
| | - Julia A. Critchley
- Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Salah A. Alyafei
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
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AlNuaimi AA, Chemaitelly H, Semaan S, AlMukdad S, Al-Kanaani Z, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Al-Romaihi HE, Butt AA, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, AbdulMalik M, Al-Khal A, Abu-Raddad LJ. All-cause and COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMJ Glob Health 2023; 8:bmjgh-2023-012291. [PMID: 37142299 PMCID: PMC10163334 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate all-cause mortality, COVID-19 mortality and all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS A national, retrospective cohort analysis and national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted between 5 February 2020 and 19 September 2022. RESULTS There were 5025 deaths during a follow-up time of 5 247 220 person-years, of which 675 were COVID-19 related. Incidence rates were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.13 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per 1000 person-years for COVID-19 mortality and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) per 1000 person-years for all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality. Adjusted HR, comparing all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 0.38 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44), highest for Filipinos at 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.69) and was 0.51 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.58) for craft and manual workers (CMWs). Adjusted HR, comparing COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 1.54 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.44), highest for Nepalese at 5.34 (95% CI 1.56 to 18.34) and was 1.86 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.60) for CMWs. Incidence rate of all-cause mortality for each nationality group was lower than the crude death rate in the country of origin. CONCLUSIONS Risk of non-COVID-19 death was low and was lowest among CMWs, perhaps reflecting the healthy worker effect. Risk of COVID-19 death was also low, but was highest among CMWs, largely reflecting higher exposure during first epidemic wave, before advent of effective COVID-19 treatments and vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Sandy Semaan
- Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Sawsan AlMukdad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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Satman I, Bayirlioglu S, Okumus F, Erturk N, Yemenici M, Cinemre S, Gulfidan G, Arga KY, D Merih Y, Issever H. Estimates and Forecasts on the Burden of Prediabetes and Diabetes in Adult and Elderly Population in Turkiye. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:313-323. [PMID: 36696072 PMCID: PMC9875179 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-022-00960-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2022] [Accepted: 12/27/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
AIMS Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that limits the quality and duration of life. We aimed to estimate the impact of demographic change on the burden of prediabetes and diabetes between 2010 and 2021, and the projections to 2030 and 2045 in Turkiye. MATERIALS AND METHODS Prediabetes and diabetes estimates were calculated by direct standardization method using age- and sex-specific prevalence data from the previous 'Turkish Epidemiology Survey of Diabetes, Hypertension, Obesity and Endocrine Disease' (TURDEP-II) as reference. The 2010-2021 population demographics were obtained from TurkStat. Comparative age-adjusted diabetes prevalence was estimated using the standard population models of world and Europe. RESULTS Estimates depicted that the population (20-84 years) of any degree of glucose intolerance in Turkiye increased by over 5.7 million (diabetes: 2.4 million and prediabetes: 3.3 million) from 2010 to 2021. While the increase in prediabetes and diabetes prevalence was 24.3% and 35.2% in overall population, corresponding increase were 46.5% and 51.3% in the elderly. Estimated prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes in 2021 was significantly higher in women than in men (prediabetes: 32.6% vs. 25.2%; diabetes: 17.1% vs. 14.2%). The comparative age-adjusted diabetes prevalence to the European population model was higher than that of the world population model (19.4% vs. 15.0%). According to the projections the prevalence of diabetes will reach 17.5% in 2030 and 19.2% in 2045. CONCLUSION Assuming age- and sex-specific diabetes prevalence of TURDEP-II survey remained constant, this study revealed that the number of people with diabetes in the general population (particularly in the elderly) in the last 11 years in Turkiye has increased in parallel with the population growth and aging; it will continue to grow over the coming decades. This means the burden of diabetes on the social, economic and health services will remain to increase. The fact suggests that there is an urgent need for re-organization of care as well as to develop and implement a country-specific prevention program to reduce this burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilhan Satman
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey.
- Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Turgut Ozal Millet Caddesi, 34093, Capa, Istanbul, Turkey.
| | - Safak Bayirlioglu
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Funda Okumus
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Nazli Erturk
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Merve Yemenici
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Sedanur Cinemre
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Gizem Gulfidan
- Department of Bioengineering, Faculty of Engineering, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - K Yalcin Arga
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
- Department of Bioengineering, Faculty of Engineering, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey
- Genetic and Metabolic Diseases Research and Investigation Centre, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Yeliz D Merih
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
- Hamidiye Faculty of Nursing, University of Health Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Halim Issever
- Institute of Public Health and Chronic Diseases, The Health Institutes of Turkiye, Istanbul, Turkey
- Department of Public Health, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Dargham S, Chemaitelly H, Coyle P, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. COVID-19 risk score as a public health tool to guide targeted testing: A demonstration study in Qatar. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0271324. [PMID: 35853026 PMCID: PMC9295939 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We developed a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk score to guide targeted RT-PCR testing in Qatar. The Qatar national COVID-19 testing database, encompassing a total of 2,688,232 RT-PCR tests conducted between February 5, 2020-January 27, 2021, was analyzed. Logistic regression analyses were implemented to derive the COVID-19 risk score, as a tool to identify those at highest risk of having the infection. Score cut-off was determined using the ROC curve based on maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity. The score’s performance diagnostics were assessed. Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, and nationality as significant predictors of infection and were included in the risk score. The ROC curve was generated and the area under the curve was estimated at 0.63 (95% CI: 0.63–0.63). The score had a sensitivity of 59.4% (95% CI: 59.1%-59.7%), specificity of 61.1% (95% CI: 61.1%-61.2%), a positive predictive value of 10.9% (95% CI: 10.8%-10.9%), and a negative predictive value of 94.9% (94.9%-95.0%). The concept and utility of a COVID-19 risk score were demonstrated in Qatar. Such a public health tool can have considerable utility in optimizing testing and suppressing infection transmission, while maximizing efficiency and use of available resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Soha Dargham
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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Awad SF, A Toumi A, A Al-Mutawaa K, A Alyafei S, A Ijaz M, A H Khalifa S, B Kokku S, C M Mishra A, V Poovelil B, B Soussi M, G El-Nahas K, O Al-Hamaq A, A Critchley J, H Al-Thani M, Abu-Raddad LJ. Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care 2022; 10:10/2/e002704. [PMID: 35443971 PMCID: PMC9021773 DOI: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Accepted: 03/27/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar's 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources. RESULTS Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20-79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar-for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial. CONCLUSIONS T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susanne F Awad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Dawha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Amine A Toumi
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Kholood A Al-Mutawaa
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Salah A Alyafei
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Muhammad A Ijaz
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | | | - Suresh B Kokku
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Amit C M Mishra
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Benjamin V Poovelil
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Mounir B Soussi
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | | | | | - Julia A Critchley
- Population Health Research Institute, St. George's, University of London, London, UK
| | - Mohammed H Al-Thani
- Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Dawha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, New York, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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Sadek K, Abdelhafez I, Al-Hashimi I, Al-Shafi W, Tarmizi F, Al-Marri H, Alzohari N, Balideh M, Carr A. Screening for diabetes and impaired glucose metabolism in Qatar: Models' development and validation. Prim Care Diabetes 2022; 16:69-77. [PMID: 34716113 DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2021.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2021] [Revised: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/02/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
AIM To establish two scoring models for identifying individuals at risk of developing Impaired Glucose Metabolism (IGM) or Type two Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in Qatari. MATERIALS AND METHODS A sample of 2000 individuals, from Qatar BioBank, was evaluated to determine features predictive of T2DM and IGM. Another sample of 1000 participants was obtained for external validation of the models. Several scoring models screening for T2DM were evaluated and compared to the model proposed by this study. RESULTS Age, gender, waist-to-hip-ratio, history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia, and levels of educational were statistically associated with the risk of T2DM and constituted the Qatar diabetes mellitus risk score (QDMRISK). Along with, the 6 aforementioned variables, the IGM model showed that BMI was statistically significant. The QDMRISK performed well with area under the curve (AUC) 0.870 and .815 in the development and external validation cohorts, respectively. The QDMRISK showed overall better accuracy and calibration compared to other evaluated scores. The IGM model showed good accuracy and calibration, with AUCs .796 and .774 in the development and external validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study developed Qatari-specific diabetes and IGM risk scores to identify high risk individuals and can guide the development of a nationwide primary prevention program.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khaled Sadek
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | | | - Israa Al-Hashimi
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | - Wadha Al-Shafi
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | - Fatihah Tarmizi
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | - Hissa Al-Marri
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | - Nada Alzohari
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | - Mohammad Balideh
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
| | - Alison Carr
- College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar.
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