Multivariable mortality risk prediction using machine learning for COVID-19 patients at admission (AICOVID)

Machine learning algorithms for predicting COVID-19 mortality in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global public health crisis, continues to pose challenges despite preventive measures. The daily rise in COVID-19 cases is concerning, and the testing process is both time-consuming and costly. While several models have been created to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients, only a few have shown sufficient accuracy. Machine learning algorithms offer a promising approach to data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes, surpassing traditional statistical modeling. Leveraging machine learning (ML) algorithms could potentially provide a solution for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop and validate machine-learning models for accurately predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Our study involved analyzing electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients who were admitted to public hospitals in Ethiopia. Specifically, we developed seven different machine learning models to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. These models included J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighborhood (k-NN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR). We then compared the performance of these models using data from a cohort of 696 patients through statistical analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we utilized metrics derived from the confusion matrix such as sensitivity, specificity, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

RESULTS

The study included a total of 696 patients, with a higher number of females (440 patients, accounting for 63.2%) compared to males. The median age of the participants was 35.0 years old, with an interquartile range of 18-79. After conducting different feature selection procedures, 23 features were examined, and identified as predictors of mortality, and it was determined that gender, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and alcohol drinking/addiction were the top three predictors of COVID-19 mortality. On the other hand, loss of smell, loss of taste, and hypertension were identified as the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. The experimental results revealed that the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm outperformed than other machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 95.25%, sensitivity of 95.30%, precision of 92.7%, specificity of 93.30%, F1 score 93.98% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 96.90%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the k-NN algorithm in predicting COVID-19 outcomes based on the selected features.

CONCLUSION

Our study has developed an innovative model that utilizes hospital data to accurately predict the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this model is to prioritize early treatment for high-risk patients and optimize strained healthcare systems during the ongoing pandemic. By integrating machine learning with comprehensive hospital databases, our model effectively classifies patients' mortality risk, enabling targeted medical interventions and improved resource management. Among the various methods tested, the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm demonstrated the highest accuracy, allowing for early identification of high-risk patients. Through KNN feature identification, we identified 23 predictors that significantly contribute to predicting COVID-19 mortality. The top five predictors are gender (female), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, alcohol drinking, smoking, and symptoms of headache and chills. This advancement holds great promise in enhancing healthcare outcomes and decision-making during the pandemic. By providing services and prioritizing patients based on the identified predictors, healthcare facilities and providers can improve the chances of survival for individuals. This model provides valuable insights that can guide healthcare professionals in allocating resources and delivering appropriate care to those at highest risk.

Use of machine learning to identify protective factors for death from COVID-19 in the ICU: a retrospective study

Background

Patients in serious condition due to COVID-19 often require special care in intensive care units (ICUs). This disease has affected over 758 million people and resulted in 6.8 million deaths worldwide. Additionally, the progression of the disease may vary from individual to individual, that is, it is essential to identify the clinical parameters that indicate a good prognosis for the patient. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been used for analyzing complex medical data and identifying prognostic indicators. However, there is still an urgent need for a model to elucidate the predictors related to patient outcomes. Therefore, this research aimed to verify, through ML, the variables involved in the discharge of patients admitted to the ICU due to COVID-19.

Methods

In this study, 126 variables were collected with information on demography, hospital length stay and outcome, chronic diseases and tumors, comorbidities and risk factors, complications and adverse events, health care, and vital indicators of patients admitted to an ICU in southern Brazil. These variables were filtered and then selected by a ML algorithm known as decision trees to identify the optimal set of variables for predicting patient discharge using logistic regression. Finally, a confusion matrix was performed to evaluate the model's performance for the selected variables.

Results

Of the 532 patients evaluated, 180 were discharged: female (16.92%), with a central venous catheter (23.68%), with a bladder catheter (26.13%), and with an average of 8.46- and 23.65-days using bladder catheter and submitted to mechanical ventilation, respectively. In addition, the chances of discharge increase by 14% for each additional day in the hospital, by 136% for female patients, 716% when there is no bladder catheter, and 737% when no central venous catheter is used. However, the chances of discharge decrease by 3% for each additional year of age and by 9% for each other day of mechanical ventilation. The performance of the training data presented a balanced accuracy of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.74, specificity of 0.88, and the kappa value was 0.64. The test performance had a balanced accuracy of 0.85, sensitivity 0.75, specificity 0.95, and kappa value of 0.73. The McNemar test found that there were no significant differences in the error rates in the training and test data, suggesting good classification. This work showed that female, the absence of a central venous catheter and bladder catheter, shorter mechanical ventilation, and bladder catheter duration were associated with a greater chance of hospital discharge. These results may help develop measures that lead to a good prognosis for the patient.

Prediction analysis of TBI 24-h survival outcome based on machine learning

Background

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the major reason for the death of young people and is well known for its high mortality and morbidity. This paper aim to predict the 24h survival of patients with TBI.

Methods

A total of 1224 samples were involved in this analysis, and the clinical indicators involved included age, gender, blood pressure, MGAP and other fields, among which the target variable was "outcome", which was a binary variable. The methods mainly involved in this paper include data visualization analysis, single factor analysis, feature engineering analysis, random forest model (RF), K-Nearst Neighbors (KNN) model, and so on. Logistic regression model (LR) and deep neural network model (DNN). We will oversample the training set using the SMOTE method because of the very unbalanced labeling of the sample itself.

Results

Although the accuracy of all models is very high, the recall rate is relatively low. The DNN model with the best performance only reaches 0.17, and the corresponding AUC is 0.80. After resampling, we find that the recall rate of positive samples of all models has increased a lot, but the AUC of some models has decreased. Finally, the optimal model is LR, whose positive sample recall rate is 0.67 and AUC is 0.82.

Conclusion

Through resampling, we obtained that the best model is the RF model, whose recall rate and AUC are the best, and the AUC level is about 0.87, indicating that the accuracy performance of the model is still good.

Middle meningeal artery embolization for chronic subdural hematoma: A single-center experience and predictive modeling of outcomes

BACKGROUND

Remarkable interest is rising around middle meningeal artery embolization (MMAE) as an emerging alternative therapy for chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH). The study aims to highlight a large center experience and the variables associated with treatment failure and build experimental machine learning (ML) models for outcome prediction.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A 2-year experience in MMAE for managing patients with chronic subdural hematoma was analyzed. Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted using imaging and clinical features of the patients and cSDH, which were subsequently used to build predictive models for the procedure outcome. The modeling evaluation metrics were the area under the ROC curve and F1-score.

RESULTS

A total of 100 cSDH of 76 patients who underwent MMAE were included with an average follow-up of 6 months. The intervention had a per procedure success rate of 92%. Thrombocytopenia had a highly significant association with treatment failure. Two patients suffered a complication related to the procedure. The best performing machine learning models in predicting MMAE failure achieved an ROC-AUC of 70%, and an F1-score of 67%, including all patients with or without surgical intervention prior to embolization, and an ROC-AUC of 82% and an F1-score of 69% when only patients who underwent upfront MMAE were included.

CONCLUSION

MMAE is a safe and minimally invasive procedure with great potential in transforming the management of cSDH and reducing the risk of surgical complications in selected patients. An ML approach with larger sample size might help better predict outcomes and highlight important predictors following MMAE in patients with cSDH.

O2 supplementation disambiguation in clinical narratives to support retrospective COVID-19 studies

BACKGROUND

Oxygen saturation, a key indicator of COVID-19 severity, poses challenges, especially in cases of silent hypoxemia. Electronic health records (EHRs) often contain supplemental oxygen information within clinical narratives. Streamlining patient identification based on oxygen levels is crucial for COVID-19 research, underscoring the need for automated classifiers in discharge summaries to ease the manual review burden on physicians.

METHOD

We analysed text lines extracted from anonymised COVID-19 patient discharge summaries in German to perform a binary classification task, differentiating patients who received oxygen supplementation and those who did not. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms, including classical ML to deep learning (DL) models, were compared. Classifier decisions were explained using Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), which visualize the model decisions.

RESULT

Classical ML to DL models achieved comparable performance in classification, with an F-measure varying between 0.942 and 0.955, whereas the classical ML approaches were faster. Visualisation of embedding representation of input data reveals notable variations in the encoding patterns between classic and DL encoders. Furthermore, LIME explanations provide insights into the most relevant features at token level that contribute to these observed differences.

CONCLUSION

Despite a general tendency towards deep learning, these use cases show that classical approaches yield comparable results at lower computational cost. Model prediction explanations using LIME in textual and visual layouts provided a qualitative explanation for the model performance.

Application of machine learning in predicting survival outcomes involving real-world data: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Despite the interest in machine learning (ML) algorithms for analyzing real-world data (RWD) in healthcare, the use of ML in predicting time-to-event data, a common scenario in clinical practice, is less explored. ML models are capable of algorithmically learning from large, complex datasets and can offer advantages in predicting time-to-event data. We reviewed the recent applications of ML for survival analysis using RWD in healthcare.

METHODS

PUBMED and EMBASE were searched from database inception through March 2023 to identify peer-reviewed English-language studies of ML models for predicting time-to-event outcomes using the RWD. Two reviewers extracted information on the data source, patient population, survival outcome, ML algorithms, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Of 257 citations, 28 publications were included. Random survival forests (N = 16, 57%) and neural networks (N = 11, 39%) were the most popular ML algorithms. There was variability across AUC for these ML models (median 0.789, range 0.6-0.950). ML algorithms were predominately considered for predicting overall survival in oncology (N = 12, 43%). ML survival models were often used to predict disease prognosis or clinical events (N = 27, 96%) in the oncology, while less were used for treatment outcomes (N = 1, 4%).

CONCLUSIONS

The ML algorithms, random survival forests and neural networks, are mainly used for RWD to predict survival outcomes such as disease prognosis or clinical events in the oncology. This review shows that more opportunities remain to apply these ML algorithms to inform treatment decision-making in clinical practice. More methodological work is also needed to ensure the utility and applicability of ML models in survival outcomes.

Early and fair COVID-19 outcome risk assessment using robust feature selection

Personalized medicine plays an important role in treatment optimization for COVID-19 patient management. Early treatment in patients at high risk of severe complications is vital to prevent death and ventilator use. Predicting COVID-19 clinical outcomes using machine learning may provide a fast and data-driven solution for optimizing patient care by estimating the need for early treatment. In addition, it is essential to accurately predict risk across demographic groups, particularly those underrepresented in existing models. Unfortunately, there is a lack of studies demonstrating the equitable performance of machine learning models across patient demographics. To overcome this existing limitation, we generate a robust machine learning model to predict patient-specific risk of death or ventilator use in COVID-19 positive patients using features available at the time of diagnosis. We establish the value of our solution across patient demographics, including gender and race. In addition, we improve clinical trust in our automated predictions by generating interpretable patient clustering, patient-level clinical feature importance, and global clinical feature importance within our large real-world COVID-19 positive patient dataset. We achieved 89.38% area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) performance for severe outcomes prediction and our robust feature ranking approach identified the presence of dementia as a key indicator for worse patient outcomes. We also demonstrated that our deep-learning clustering approach outperforms traditional clustering in separating patients by severity of outcome based on mutual information performance. Finally, we developed an application for automated and fair patient risk assessment with minimal manual data entry using existing data exchange standards.

Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in hospitalized patients based on early status

IMPORTANCE

COVID-19 remains the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. Predicting COVID-19 patient prognosis is essential to help efficiently allocate resources, including ventilators and intensive care unit beds, particularly when hospital systems are strained. Our PLABAC and PRABLE models are unique because they accurately assess a COVID-19 patient's risk of death from only age and five commonly ordered laboratory tests. This simple design is important because it allows these models to be used by clinicians to rapidly assess a patient's risk of decompensation and serve as a real-time aid when discussing difficult, life-altering decisions for patients. Our models have also shown generalizability to external populations across the United States. In short, these models are practical, efficient tools to assess and communicate COVID-19 prognosis.

Machine learning algorithms for predicting determinants of COVID-19 mortality in South Africa

Background

COVID-19 has strained healthcare resources, necessitating efficient prognostication to triage patients effectively. This study quantified COVID-19 risk factors and predicted COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in South Africa based on machine learning algorithms.

Methods

Data for this study were obtained from 392 COVID-19 ICU patients enrolled between 26 March 2020 and 10 February 2021. We used an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) to predict mortality among ICU patients and a semi-parametric logistic regression with nine covariates, including a grouping variable based on K-means clustering. Further evaluation of the algorithms was performed using sensitivity, accuracy, specificity, and Cohen's K statistics.

Results

From the semi-parametric logistic regression and ANN variable importance, age, gender, cluster, presence of severe symptoms, being on the ventilator, and comorbidities of asthma significantly contributed to ICU death. In particular, the odds of mortality were six times higher among asthmatic patients than non-asthmatic patients. In univariable and multivariate regression, advanced age, PF1 and 2, FiO2, severe symptoms, asthma, oxygen saturation, and cluster 4 were strongly predictive of mortality. The RF model revealed that intubation status, age, cluster, diabetes, and hypertension were the top five significant predictors of mortality. The ANN performed well with an accuracy of 71%, a precision of 83%, an F1 score of 100%, Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) score of 100%, and a recall of 88%. In addition, Cohen's k-value of 0.75 verified the most extreme discriminative power of the ANN. In comparison, the RF model provided a 76% recall, an 87% precision, and a 65% MCC.

Conclusion

Based on the findings, we can conclude that both ANN and RF can predict COVID-19 mortality in the ICU with accuracy. The proposed models accurately predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients after diagnosis. The models can be used to prioritize COVID-19 patients with a high mortality risk in resource-constrained ICUs.

Prediction of prognosis in COVID-19 patients using machine learning: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of prognostic outcomes in patients with COVID-19 could facilitate clinical decision-making and medical resource allocation. However, little is known about the ability of machine learning (ML) to predict prognosis in COVID-19 patients.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to systematically examine the prognostic value of ML in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, and IEEE Xplore up to December 15, 2021. Studies predicting the prognostic outcomes of COVID-19 patients using ML were eligible for inclusion. Risk of bias was evaluated by a tailored checklist based on Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2). Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were calculated to evaluate model performance.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies that described 35 models were eligible for inclusion, with 27 models presenting mortality, four intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and four use of ventilation. For predicting mortality, ML gave a pooled sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79-0.90), a specificity of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.80-0.92), and an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95). For the prediction of ICU admission, ML had a sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.78-0.92), a specificity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.66-0.91), and an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.93). For the prediction of ventilation, ML had a sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.68-0.90), a specificity of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-0.87), and an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89). Meta-regression analyses indicated that algorithm, population, study design, and source of dataset influenced the pooled estimate.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis demonstrated the satisfactory performance of ML in predicting prognostic outcomes in patients with COVID-19, suggesting the potential value of ML to support clinical decision-making. However, improvements to methodology and validation are still necessary before its application in routine clinical practice.

The accuracy of artificial intelligence in predicting COVID-19 patient mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this paper was to systematically evaluate the application value of artificial intelligence in predicting mortality among COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

The PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang, China Biomedical Literature, and VIP databases were systematically searched from inception to October 2022 to identify studies that evaluated the predictive effects of artificial intelligence on mortality among COVID-19 patients. The retrieved literature was screened according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tools. Statistical analysis of the included studies was performed using Review Manager 5.3, Stata 16.0, and Meta-DiSc 1.4 statistical software. This meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022315158).

FINDINGS

Of 2193 studies, 23 studies involving a total of 25 AI models met the inclusion criteria. Among them, 18 studies explicitly mentioned training and test sets, and 5 studies did not explicitly mention grouping. In the training set, the pooled sensitivity was 0.93 [0.87, 0.96], the pooled specificity was 0.94 [0.87, 0.97], and the area under the ROC curve was 0.98 [0.96, 0.99]. In the validation set, the pooled sensitivity was 0.84 [0.78, 0.88], the pooled specificity was 0.89 [0.85, 0.92], and the area under the ROC curve was 0.93 [1.00, 0.00]. In the subgroup analysis, the areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves of the artificial intelligence models KNN, SVM, ANN, RF and XGBoost were 0.98, 0.98, 0.94, 0.92, and 0.91, respectively. The Deeks funnel plot indicated that there was no significant publication bias in this study (P > 0.05).

INTERPRETATION

Artificial intelligence models have high accuracy in predicting mortality among COVID-19 patients and have high prognostic value. Among them, the KNN, SVM, ANN, RF, XGBoost, and other models have the highest levels of accuracy.

Decision trees for early prediction of inadequate immune response to coronavirus infections: a pilot study on COVID-19

Introduction

Few artificial intelligence models exist to predict severe forms of COVID-19. Most rely on post-infection laboratory data, hindering early treatment for high-risk individuals.

Methods

This study developed a machine learning model to predict inherent risk of severe symptoms after contracting SARS-CoV-2. Using a Decision Tree trained on 153 Alpha variant patients, demographic, clinical and immunogenetic markers were considered. Model performance was assessed on Alpha and Delta variant datasets. Key risk factors included age, gender, absence of KIR2DS2 gene (alone or with HLA-C C1 group alleles), presence of 14-bp polymorphism in HLA-G gene, presence of KIR2DS5 gene, and presence of KIR telomeric region A/A.

Results

The model achieved 83.01% accuracy for Alpha variant and 78.57% for Delta variant, with True Positive Rates of 80.82 and 77.78%, and True Negative Rates of 85.00% and 79.17%, respectively. The model showed high sensitivity in identifying individuals at risk.

Discussion

The present study demonstrates the potential of AI algorithms, combined with demographic, epidemiologic, and immunogenetic data, in identifying individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 and facilitating early treatment. Further studies are required for routine clinical integration.

Machine learning-based mortality prediction models for smoker COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND

The large number of SARS-Cov-2 cases during the COVID-19 global pandemic has burdened healthcare systems and created a shortage of resources and services. In recent years, mortality prediction models have shown a potential in alleviating this issue; however, these models are susceptible to biases in specific subpopulations with different risks of mortality, such as patients with prior history of smoking. The current study aims to develop a machine learning-based mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients that have a history of smoking in the Iranian population.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted across six medical centers between 18 and 2020 and 15 March 2022, comprised of 678 CT scans and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients that had a history of smoking. Multiple machine learning models were developed using 10-fold cross-validation. The target variable was in-hospital mortality and input features included patient demographics, levels of care, vital signs, medications, and comorbidities. Two sets of models were developed for at-admission and post-admission predictions. Subsequently, the top five prediction models were selected from at-admission models and post-admission models and their probabilities were calibrated.

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality rate for smoker COVID-19 patients was 20.1%. For "at admission" models, the best-calibrated model was XGBoost which yielded an accuracy of 87.5% and F₁ score of 86.2%. For the "post-admission" models, XGBoost also outperformed the rest with an accuracy of 90.5% and F₁ score of 89.9%. Active smoking was among the most important features in patients' mortality prediction.

CONCLUSION

Our machine learning-based mortality prediction models have the potential to be adapted for improving the management of smoker COVID-19 patients and predicting patients' chance of survival.

Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Selected Predictors of COVID-19 Mortality in the Hospitalised Patient Population in a Single-Centre Study in Poland

Background: The correct analysis of COVID-19 predictors could substantially improve the clinical decision-making process and enable emergency department patients at higher mortality risk to be identified. Methods: We retrospectively explored the relationship between some demographic and clinical factors, such as age and sex, as well as the levels of ten selected factors, namely, CRP, D-dimer, ferritin, LDH, RDW-CV, RDW-SD, procalcitonin, blood oxygen saturation, lymphocytes, and leukocytes, and COVID-19 mortality risk in 150 adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Provincial Specialist Hospital in Zgierz, Poland (this hospital was transformed, in March 2020, into a hospital admitting COVID-19 cases only). All blood samples for testing were collected in the emergency room before admission. The length of stay in the intensive care unit and length of hospitalisation were also analysed. Results: The only factor that was not significantly related to mortality was the length of stay in the intensive care unit. The odds of dying were significantly lower in males, patients with a longer hospital stay, patients with higher lymphocyte levels, and patients with higher blood oxygen saturation, while the chances of dying were significantly higher in older patients; patients with higher RDW-CV and RDW-SD levels; and patients with higher levels of leukocytes, CRP, ferritin, procalcitonin, LDH, and D-dimers. Conclusions: Six potential predictors of mortality were included in the final model: age, RDW-CV, procalcitonin, and D-dimers level; blood oxygen saturation; and length of hospitalisation. The results obtained from this study suggest that a final predictive model with high accuracy in mortality prediction (over 90%) was successfully built. The suggested model could be used for therapy prioritization.

The race to understand immunopathology in COVID-19: Perspectives on the impact of quantitative approaches to understand within-host interactions

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the need for the increased integration of modelling and data analysis to public health, experimental, and clinical studies. Throughout the first two years of the pandemic, there has been a concerted effort to improve our understanding of the within-host immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus to provide better predictions of COVID-19 severity, treatment and vaccine development questions, and insights into viral evolution and the impacts of variants on immunopathology. Here we provide perspectives on what has been accomplished using quantitative methods, including predictive modelling, population genetics, machine learning, and dimensionality reduction techniques, in the first 26 months of the COVID-19 pandemic approaches, and where we go from here to improve our responses to this and future pandemics.

Cardiovascular and Renal Comorbidities Included into Neural Networks Predict the Outcome in COVID-19 Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit: Three-Center, Cross-Validation, Age- and Sex-Matched Study

Here, we performed a multicenter, age- and sex-matched study to compare the efficiency of various machine learning algorithms in the prediction of COVID-19 fatal outcomes and to develop sensitive, specific, and robust artificial intelligence tools for the prompt triage of patients with severe COVID-19 in the intensive care unit setting. In a challenge against other established machine learning algorithms (decision trees, random forests, extra trees, neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and gradient boosting: XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost) and multivariate logistic regression as a reference, neural networks demonstrated the highest sensitivity, sufficient specificity, and excellent robustness. Further, neural networks based on coronary artery disease/chronic heart failure, stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease, blood urea nitrogen, and C-reactive protein as the predictors exceeded 90% sensitivity and 80% specificity, reaching AUROC of 0.866 at primary cross-validation and 0.849 at secondary cross-validation on virtual samples generated by the bootstrapping procedure. These results underscore the impact of cardiovascular and renal comorbidities in the context of thrombotic complications characteristic of severe COVID-19. As aforementioned predictors can be obtained from the case histories or are inexpensive to be measured at admission to the intensive care unit, we suggest this predictor composition is useful for the triage of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

Interpretable Machine Learning for Inpatient COVID-19 Mortality Risk Assessments: Diabetes Mellitus Exclusive Interplay

People with diabetes mellitus (DM) are at elevated risk of in-hospital mortality from coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). This vulnerability has spurred efforts to pinpoint distinctive characteristics of COVID-19 patients with DM. In this context, the present article develops ML models equipped with interpretation modules for inpatient mortality risk assessments of COVID-19 patients with DM. To this end, a cohort of 156 hospitalised COVID-19 patients with pre-existing DM is studied. For creating risk assessment platforms, this work explores a pool of historical, on-admission, and during-admission data that are DM-related or, according to preliminary investigations, are exclusively attributed to the COVID-19 susceptibility of DM patients. First, a set of careful pre-modelling steps are executed on the clinical data, including cleaning, pre-processing, subdivision, and feature elimination. Subsequently, standard machine learning (ML) modelling analysis is performed on the cured data. Initially, a classifier is tasked with forecasting COVID-19 fatality from selected features. The model undergoes thorough evaluation analysis. The results achieved substantiate the efficacy of the undertaken data curation and modelling steps. Afterwards, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique is assigned to interpret the generated mortality risk prediction model by rating the predictors' global and local influence on the model's outputs. These interpretations advance the comprehensibility of the analysis by explaining the formation of outcomes and, in this way, foster the adoption of the proposed methodologies. Next, a clustering algorithm demarcates patients into four separate groups based on their SHAP values, providing a practical risk stratification method. Finally, a re-evaluation analysis is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed framework.

Telemedicine to Expand Access to Critical Care Around the World

This multiauthored communication gives a state-of-the-art global perspective on the increasing adoption of tele-critical care. Exponentially increasing sophistication in the deployment of Computers, Information, and Communication Technology has ensured extending the reach of limited intensivists virtually and reaching the unreached. Natural disasters, COVID-19 pandemic, and wars have made tele-intensive care a reality. Concerns and regulatory issues are being sorted out, cross-border cost-effective tele-critical care is steadily increasing Components to set up a tele-intensive care unit, and overcoming barriers is discussed. Importance of developing best practice guidelines and retraining is emphasized.

Culture and COVID-19-related mortality: a cross-sectional study of 50 countries

Using a cross-sectional sample of 50 countries we investigate the influence of Hofstede’s six-dimensions of culture on COVID-19 related mortality. A multivariable regression model was fitted that controls for health-related, economic- and policy-related variables that have been found to be associated with mortality. We included the percentage of population aged 65 and above, the prevalence of relevant co-morbidities, and tobacco use as health-related variables. Economic variables were GDP, and the connectedness of a country. As policy variables, the Oxford Stringency Index as well as stringency speed, and the Global Health Security Index were used. We also describe the importance of the variables by means of a random forest model. The results suggest that individualistic societies are associated with lower COVID-19-related mortality rates. This finding contradicts previous studies that supported the popular narrative that collectivistic societies with an obedient population are better positioned to manage the pandemic.

Characteristics and risk factors for mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 receiving invasive mechanical ventilation: the experience of a private network in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction

The use of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in COVID-19 represents in an incremental burden to healthcare systems.

Aim of the study

We aimed to characterize patients hospitalized for COVID-19 who received IMV and identify risk factors for mortality in this population.

Material and Methods

A retrospective cohort study including consecutive adult patients admitted to a private network in Brazil who received IMV from March to October, 2020. A bidirectional stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for mortality.

Results

We included 215 patients, of which 96 died and 119 were discharged from ICU. The mean age was 62.7 ± 15.4 years and the most important comorbidities were hypertension (62.8%), obesity (50.7%) and diabetes (40%). Non-survivors had lower body mass index (BMI) (28.3 [25.5; 31.6] vs. 31.2 [28.3; 35], p<0.001, and a shorter duration from symptom onset to intubation (8.5 [6.0; 12] days vs. 10 [8.0; 12.5] days, p = 0.005). Multivariable regression analysis showed that the risk factors for mortality were age (OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.1, p < 0.001), creatinine level at the intubation date (OR: 3.28, 95% CI: 1.47 to 7.33, p = 0.004), BMI (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84 to 0.99, p = 0.033), lowest PF ratio within 48 hours post-intubation (OR: 0.988, 95% CI: 0.979 to 0.997, p = 0.011), barotrauma (OR: 5.18, 95% CI: 1.14 to 23.65, p = 0.034) and duration from symptom onset to intubation (OR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.95, p = 0.006).

Conclusion

In our retrospective cohort we identified the main risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 patients receiving IMV: age, creatinine at the day of intubation, BMI, lowest PF ratio 48-hours post-intubation, barotrauma and duration from symptom onset to intubation.

Deep-Risk: Deep Learning-Based Mortality Risk Predictive Models for COVID-19

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has proliferated around the world and caused panic to all people as it claimed many lives. Since COVID-19 is highly contagious and spreads quickly, an early diagnosis is essential. Identifying the COVID-19 patients' mortality risk factors is essential for reducing this risk among infected individuals. For the timely examination of large datasets, new computing approaches must be created. Many machine learning (ML) techniques have been developed to predict the mortality risk factors and severity for COVID-19 patients. Contrary to expectations, deep learning approaches as well as ML algorithms have not been widely applied in predicting the mortality and severity from COVID-19. Furthermore, the accuracy achieved by ML algorithms is less than the anticipated values. In this work, three supervised deep learning predictive models are utilized to predict the mortality risk and severity for COVID-19 patients. The first one, which we refer to as CV-CNN, is built using a convolutional neural network (CNN); it is trained using a clinical dataset of 12,020 patients and is based on the 10-fold cross-validation (CV) approach for training and validation. The second predictive model, which we refer to as CV-LSTM + CNN, is developed by combining the long short-term memory (LSTM) approach with a CNN model. It is also trained using the clinical dataset based on the 10-fold CV approach for training and validation. The first two predictive models use the clinical dataset in its original CSV form. The last one, which we refer to as IMG-CNN, is a CNN model and is trained alternatively using the converted images of the clinical dataset, where each image corresponds to a data row from the original clinical dataset. The experimental results revealed that the IMG-CNN predictive model outperforms the other two with an average accuracy of 94.14%, a precision of 100%, a recall of 91.0%, a specificity of 100%, an F1-score of 95.3%, an AUC of 93.6%, and a loss of 0.22.

Rapid prediction of in-hospital mortality among adults with COVID-19 disease

BACKGROUND

We developed a simple tool to estimate the probability of dying from acute COVID-19 illness only with readily available assessments at initial admission.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 13,190 racially and ethnically diverse adults admitted to one of the New York City Health + Hospitals (NYC H+H) system for COVID-19 illness between March 1 and June 30, 2020. Demographic characteristics, simple vital signs and routine clinical laboratory tests were collected from the electronic medical records. A clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of dying during the hospitalization were developed.

RESULTS

Mean age (interquartile range) was 58 (45-72) years; 5421 (41%) were women, 5258 were Latinx (40%), 3805 Black (29%), 1168 White (9%), and 2959 Other (22%). During hospitalization, 2,875 were (22%) died. Using separate test and validation samples, machine learning (Gradient Boosted Decision Trees) identified eight variables-oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, pulse rate, blood urea nitrogen level, age and creatinine-that predicted mortality, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 94%. A score based on these variables classified 5,677 (46%) as low risk (a score of 0) who had 0.8% (95% confidence interval, 0.5-1.0%) risk of dying, and 674 (5.4%) as high-risk (score ≥ 12 points) who had a 97.6% (96.5-98.8%) risk of dying; the remainder had intermediate risks. A risk calculator is available online at https://danielevanslab.shinyapps.io/Covid_mortality/.

CONCLUSIONS

In a diverse population of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 illness, a clinical prediction model using a few readily available vital signs reflecting the severity of disease may precisely predict in-hospital mortality in diverse populations and can rapidly assist decisions to prioritize admissions and intensive care.

Classifying the Mortality of People with Underlying Health Conditions Affected by COVID-19 Using Machine Learning Techniques

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected populations worldwide and has posed a significant challenge to medical systems. With the constant increase in the number of severe COVID-19 infections, an essential area of research has been directed towards predicting the mortality rate of these patients, in order to make informed medical decisions about the necessary healthcare priorities. Although a large amount of research has attempted to predict the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients, the association between the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients and their underlying health conditions has been given significantly less attention. Meanwhile, patients with underlying conditions often face a worse COVID-19 prognosis. Therefore, the goal of this study was to classify the mortality rate of patients diagnosed with COVID-19, who also suffer from underlying health conditions or comorbidities. To achieve our goal, we applied machine learning (ML) models on a new publicly available dataset, not investigated by any existing literature. The dataset provides detailed information on 582 COVID-19 patients and facilitates a robust forecasting model of the mortality rate. The dataset was analysed using seven ML classifiers, namely, Bagging, J48, logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), naïve Bayes (NB), and threshold selector. A comparative analysis was performed across the seven ML techniques, and their performance was assessed based on evaluation parameters including classification accuracy, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate. The best performance was demonstrated by the Bagging algorithm with an accuracy of 83.55% when using all the dataset features. The findings are intended to assist researchers and physicians in the early identification of at-risk COVID-19 patients and to make the appropriate intensive care decisions.

Cardiovascular signatures of COVID-19 predict mortality and identify barrier stabilizing therapies

Background

Endothelial cell (EC) activation, endotheliitis, vascular permeability, and thrombosis have been observed in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), indicating that the vasculature is affected during the acute stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection. It remains unknown whether circulating vascular markers are sufficient to predict clinical outcomes, are unique to COVID-19, and if vascular permeability can be therapeutically targeted.

Methods

Prospectively evaluating the prevalence of circulating inflammatory, cardiac, and EC activation markers as well as developing a microRNA atlas in 241 unvaccinated patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection allowed for prognostic value assessment using a Random Forest model machine learning approach. Subsequent ex vivo experiments assessed EC permeability responses to patient plasma and were used to uncover modulated gene regulatory networks from which rational therapeutic design was inferred.

Findings

Multiple inflammatory and EC activation biomarkers were associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients and in severity-matched SARS-CoV-2-negative patients, while dysregulation of specific microRNAs at presentation was specific for poor COVID-19-related outcomes and revealed disease-relevant pathways. Integrating the datasets using a machine learning approach further enhanced clinical risk prediction for in-hospital mortality. Exposure of ECs to COVID-19 patient plasma resulted in severity-specific gene expression responses and EC barrier dysfunction, which was ameliorated using angiopoietin-1 mimetic or recombinant Slit2-N.

Interpretation

Integration of multi-omics data identified microRNA and vascular biomarkers prognostic of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and revealed that vascular stabilizing therapies should be explored as a treatment for endothelial dysfunction in COVID-19, and other severe diseases where endothelial dysfunction has a central role in pathogenesis.

Funding Information

This work was directly supported by grant funding from the Ted Rogers Center for Heart Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada and the Peter Munk Cardiac Center, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

COVID-19 Risk Stratification and Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Indian Patients: Harnessing clinical data for public health benefits

The variability of clinical course and prognosis of COVID-19 highlights the necessity of patient sub-group risk stratification based on clinical data. In this study, clinical data from a cohort of Indian COVID-19 hospitalized patients is used to develop risk stratification and mortality prediction models. We analyzed a set of 70 clinical parameters including physiological and hematological for developing machine learning models to identify biomarkers. We also compared the Indian and Wuhan cohort, and analyzed the role of steroids. A bootstrap averaged ensemble of Bayesian networks was also learned to construct an explainable model for discovering actionable influences on mortality and days to outcome. We discovered blood parameters, diabetes, co-morbidity and SpO2 levels as important risk stratification features, whereas mortality prediction is dependent only on blood parameters. XGboost and logistic regression model yielded the best performance on risk stratification and mortality prediction, respectively (AUC score 0.83, AUC score 0.92). Blood coagulation parameters (ferritin, D-Dimer and INR), immune and inflammation parameters IL6, LDH and Neutrophil (%) are common features for both risk and mortality prediction. Compared with Wuhan patients, Indian patients with extreme blood parameters indicated higher survival rate. Analyses of medications suggest that a higher proportion of survivors and mild patients who were administered steroids had extreme neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages. The ensemble averaged Bayesian network structure revealed serum ferritin to be the most important predictor for mortality and Vitamin D to influence severity independent of days to outcome. The findings are important for effective triage during strains on healthcare infrastructure.

Association of renalase with clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Renalase is a secreted flavoprotein with anti-inflammatory and pro-cell survival properties. COVID-19 is associated with disordered inflammation and apoptosis. We hypothesized that blood renalase levels would correspond to severe COVID-19 and survival. In this retrospective cohort study, clinicopathologic data and blood samples were collected from hospitalized COVID-19 subjects (March—June 2020) at a single institution tertiary hospital. Plasma renalase and cytokine levels were measured and clinical data abstracted from health records. Of 3,450 COVID-19 patients, 458 patients were enrolled. Patients were excluded if <18 years, or opted out of research. The primary composite outcome was intubation or death within 180 days. Secondary outcomes included mortality alone, intensive care unit admission, use of vasopressors, and CPR. Enrolled patients had mean age 64 years (SD±17), were 53% males, and 48% non-whites. Mean renalase levels was 14,108·4 ng/ml (SD±8,137 ng/ml). Compared to patients with high renalase, those with low renalase (< 8,922 ng/ml) were more likely to present with hypoxia, increased ICU admission (54% vs. 33%, p < 0.001), and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (10% vs. 4%, p = 0·023). In Cox proportional hazard model, every 1000 ng/ml increase in renalase decreased the risk of death or intubation by 5% (HR 0·95; 95% CI 0·91–0·98) and increased survival alone by 6% (HR 0·95; CI 0·90–0·98), after adjusting for socio-demographics, initial disease severity, comorbidities and inflammation. Patients with high renalase-low IL-6 levels had the best survival compared to other groups (p = 0·04). Renalase was independently associated with reduced intubation and mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Future studies should assess the pathophysiological relevance of renalase in COVID-19 disease.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Mortality for COVID-19 Patients on Day 0 in the ICU

Rationale: Given the expanding number of COVID-19 cases and the potential for new waves of infection, there is an urgent need for early prediction of the severity of the disease in intensive care unit (ICU) patients to optimize treatment strategies. Objectives: Early prediction of mortality using machine learning based on typical laboratory results and clinical data registered on the day of ICU admission. Methods: We retrospectively studied 797 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Iran and the United Kingdom (U.K.). To find parameters with the highest predictive values, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Pearson chi-squared tests were used. Several machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), logistic regression, gradient boosting classifier, support vector machine classifier, and artificial neural network algorithms were utilized to build classification models. The impact of each marker on the RF model predictions was studied by implementing the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation technique (LIME-SP). Results: Among 66 documented parameters, 15 factors with the highest predictive values were identified as follows: gender, age, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), albumin, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), white blood cell count, segmented neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean cell hemoglobin (MCH) along with a history of neurological, cardiovascular, and respiratory disorders. Our RF model can predict patient outcomes with a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 75%. The performance of the models was confirmed by blindly testing the models in an external dataset. Conclusions: Using two independent patient datasets, we designed a machine-learning-based model that could predict the risk of mortality from severe COVID-19 with high accuracy. The most decisive variables in our model were increased levels of BUN, lowered albumin levels, increased creatinine, INR, and RDW, along with gender and age. Considering the importance of early triage decisions, this model can be a useful tool in COVID-19 ICU decision-making.

The role of European health system characteristics in affecting Covid 19 lethality during the early days of the pandemic

This article examines the main factors affecting COVID-19 lethality across 16 European Countries with a focus on the role of health system characteristics during the first phase of the diffusion of the virus. Specifically, we investigate the leading causes of lethality at 10, 20, 30, 40 days in the first hit of the pandemic. Using a random forest regression (ML), with lethality as outcome variable, we show that the percentage of people older than 65 years (with two or more chronic diseases) is the main predictor variable of lethality by COVID-19, followed by the number of hospital intensive care unit beds, investments in healthcare spending compared to GDP, number of nurses and doctors. Moreover, the variable of general practitioners has little but significant predicting quality. These findings contribute to provide evidence for the prediction of lethality caused by COVID-19 in Europe and open the discussion on health policy and management of health care and ICU beds during a severe epidemic.

Machine Learning Based Prediction of COVID-19 Mortality Suggests Repositioning of Anticancer Drug for Treating Severe Cases

Despite available vaccinations COVID-19 case numbers around the world are still growing, and effective medications against severe cases are lacking. In this work, we developed a machine learning model which predicts mortality for COVID-19 patients using data from the multi-center 'Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients' (LEOSS) observational study (>100 active sites in Europe, primarily in Germany), resulting into an AUC of almost 80%. We showed that molecular mechanisms related to dementia, one of the relevant predictors in our model, intersect with those associated to COVID-19. Most notably, among these molecules was tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), a protein that has been patented as drug target in Alzheimer's Disease but also genetically associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes. We experimentally verified that anti-cancer drugs Sorafenib and Regorafenib showed a clear anti-cytopathic effect in Caco2 and VERO-E6 cells and can thus be regarded as potential treatments against COVID-19. Altogether, our work demonstrates that interpretation of machine learning based risk models can point towards drug targets and new treatment options, which are strongly needed for COVID-19.

Predicting prognosis in COVID-19 patients using machine learning and readily available clinical data

Rationale

Prognostic tools for aiding in the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients could help improve outcome by identifying patients at higher or lower risk of severe disease. The study objective was to develop models to stratify patients by risk of severe outcomes during COVID-19 hospitalization using readily available information at hospital admission.

Methods

Hierarchical ensemble classification models were trained on a set of 229 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 to predict severe outcomes, including ICU admission, development of acute respiratory distress syndrome, or intubation, using easily attainable attributes including basic patient characteristics, vital signs at admission, and basic lab results collected at time of presentation. Each test stratifies patients into groups of increasing risk. An additional cohort of 330 patients was used for blinded, independent validation. Shapley value analysis evaluated which attributes contributed most to the models’ predictions of risk.

Main results

Test performance was assessed using precision (positive predictive value) and recall (sensitivity) of the final risk groups. All test cut-offs were fixed prior to blinded validation. In development and validation, the tests achieved precision in the lowest risk groups near or above 0.9. The proportion of patients with severe outcomes significantly increased across increasing risk groups. While the importance of attributes varied by test and patient, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and D-dimer were often found to be important in the assignment of risk.

Conclusions

Risk of severe outcomes for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection can be assessed using machine learning-based models based on attributes routinely collected at hospital admission.

COVID-19 Mortality Prediction Using Machine Learning-Integrated Random Forest Algorithm under Varying Patient Frailty

The abundance of type and quantity of available data in the healthcare field has led many to utilize machine learning approaches to keep up with this influx of data. Data pertaining to COVID-19 is an area of recent interest. The widespread influence of the virus across the United States creates an obvious need to identify groups of individuals that are at an increased risk of mortality from the virus. We propose a so-called clustered random forest approach to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. We use this approach to examine the hidden heterogeneity of patient frailty by examining demographic information for COVID-19 patients. We find that our clustered random forest approach attains predictive performance comparable to other published methods. We also find that follow-up analysis with neural network modeling and k-means clustering provide insight into the type and magnitude of mortality risks associated with COVID-19.

Independent Risk Factors for the Dynamic Development of COVID-19: A Retrospective Study

Objective

To identify the risk factors for predicting the dynamic progression of COVID-19.

Methods

A total of 2321 eligible patients were included in this study from February 4 to April 15, 2020. Two illness conditions, including mild/moderate (M/M) subtype to severe/critical (S/C) and S/C to fatality, were classified. Clinical message was collected and compared, respectively. Kaplan–Meier method, Cox regression model and risk score system were used to predict disease progression in S/C COVID-19.

Results

A total of 112 of 1761 patients with M/M subtype were progressors (P) and 1649 non-progressors (NP). Increasing disease progression associated with higher levels of neutrophils count (HR=1.958, 95% CI=1.253–3.059, P=0.003), CK (HR=2.203, 95% CI=1.048–4.632, P=0.037), LDH (HR=3.309, 95% CI=2.083–5.256, P<0.001) and CRP (HR=2.575, 95% CI=1.638–4.049, P<0.001), and lower level of lymphocytes count (HR=1.549, 95% CI=1.018–2.355, P=0.041), as well as total lesion volume ratio greater than ≥10% (HR=2.286, 95% CI=1.451–3.601, P<0.001) on admission. In progression to fatality, 56 of the 672 S/C cases died and 616 survived. Increasing fatality associated with lower level of lymphocytes count (HR:2.060, 95% CI:1.000–4.242, P=0.050), higher levels of BUN (HR:2.715, 95% CI:1.539–4.790, P<0.001), CK-MB (HR:3.412, 95% CI:1.760–6.616, P<0.001), LDH (HR:5.578, 95% CI:2.317–13.427, P<0.001), and PT (HR:3.619, 95% CI:2.102–6.231, P<0.001). Furthermore, high risk of neutrophils count, lymphocytes count, CK, LDH, CRP, and total lesion volume ratio was powerfully correlated with the incidence of progression to S/C in patients with NS COVID-19 and high odds of lymphocytes count, BUN, CK-MB, LDH, and PT were significantly associated with death in patients with S/C COVID-19. In addition, the progression and mortality rates increased with increasing risk scores.

Conclusion

Elevated LDH level and lymphopenia were independent predictors for COVID-19 sustainable management in classifying non-severe patients who progressed to severe condition and identifying S/C patients who deteriorated to fatal outcomes as well. Total lesion volume ratio ≥10% may provide early predictive evidence with COVID-19 patients at high risk of developing into S/C to improve prognosis.

Iron metabolism in infections: Focus on COVID-19

Iron is a micronutrient essential for a wide range of metabolic processes in virtually all living organisms. During infections, a battle for iron takes place between the human host and the invading pathogens. The liver peptide hepcidin, which is phylogenetically and structurally linked to defensins (antimicrobial peptides of the innate immunity), plays a pivotal role by subtracting iron to pathogens through its sequestration into host cells, mainly macrophages. While this phenomenon is well studied in certain bacterial infections, much less is known regarding viral infections. Iron metabolism also has implications on the functionality of cells of the immune system. Once primed by the contact with antigen presenting cells, lymphocytes need iron to sustain the metabolic burst required for mounting an effective cellular and humoral response. The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted an amount of clinical and translational research over the possible influences of nutrients on SARS-CoV-2 infection, in terms of either susceptibility or clinical course. Here we review the intersections between iron metabolism and COVID-19, belonging to the wider domain of the so-called “nutritional immunity”. A better understanding of such connections has potential broad implications, either from a mechanistic standpoint, or for the development of more effective strategies for managing COVID-19 and possible future pandemics.

Pandemic Analytics by Advanced Machine Learning for Improved Decision Making of COVID-19 Crisis

With the advent of the first pandemic wave of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the question arises as to whether the spread of the virus will be controlled by the application of preventive measures or will follow a different course, regardless of the pattern of spread already recorded. These conditions caused by the unprecedented pandemic have highlighted the importance of reliable data from official sources, their complete recording and analysis, and accurate investigation of epidemiological indicators in almost real time. There is an ongoing research demand for reliable and effective modeling of the disease but also the formulation of substantiated views to make optimal decisions for the design of preventive or repressive measures by those responsible for the implementation of policy in favor of the protection of public health. The main objective of the study is to present an innovative data-analysis system of COVID-19 disease progression in Greece and her border countries by real-time statistics about the epidemiological indicators. This system utilizes visualized data produced by an automated information system developed during the study, which is based on the analysis of large pandemic-related datasets, making extensive use of advanced machine learning methods. Finally, the aim is to support with up-to-date technological means optimal decisions in almost real time as well as the development of medium-term forecast of disease progression, thus assisting the competent bodies in taking appropriate measures for the effective management of the available health resources.