A systemic approach to assess the potential and risks of wildlife culling for infectious disease control

An operational framework for wildlife health in the One Health approach

Wildlife is an essential component of biodiversity and provides people with multiple social and economic benefits. However, a resurgence of epidemics over the past two decades has highlighted wildlife's role as a potential source of dangerous pathogens for humans and livestock, with devastating consequences worldwide. Simultaneously, numerous reports have indicated that wildlife populations are declining at an alarming rate due to human and livestock pathogens, predation, and competition. An integrated approach to managing wildlife, human, and domestic animal health is therefore clearly needed. Yet this integration often fails to materialize due to a lack of wildlife health standards and know-how. Here, we present an operational framework that follows a step-by-step approach: i) a holistic definition of human health is adapted to the context of other-than-human animals, including wildlife; then, ii) different categories of wildlife living within a landscape or a country are defined based on the management systems under which they live. For each wildlife category, the type (natural vs. anthropogenic) of habitat, the nature of the interface of wildlife with humans and/or livestock, and the level of sanitary control are defined; and finally, iii) the holistic definition of wildlife health is considered in relation to each wildlife category to define health challenges and the domains of expertise required to address them. This framework can assist national and international agencies, including veterinary and wildlife authorities and policy makers, in defining wildlife health priorities, responsibilities, policies and capacity building strategies. The extensive interdisciplinary collaboration needed to manage the many different aspects of wildlife health calls for a more integrated One Health approach.

Buruli ulcer surveillance in south-eastern Australian possums: Infection status, lesion mapping and internal distribution of Mycobacterium ulcerans

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a neglected tropical disease of skin and subcutaneous tissues caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. BU-endemic areas are highly focal, and M. ulcerans transmission dynamics vary by setting. In Victoria, Australia, BU is an endemic vector-borne zoonosis, with mosquitoes and native possums implicated in transmission, and humans incidental hosts. Despite the importance of possums as wildlife reservoirs of M. ulcerans, knowledge of BU in these animals is limited. Opportunistic necropsy-based and active trap-and-release surveillance studies were conducted across Melbourne and Geelong, Victoria, to investigate BU in possums. Demographic data and biological samples were collected, and cutaneous lesions suggestive of BU were mapped. Samples were tested for the presence of M. ulcerans DNA by IS2404 qPCR. The final dataset included 26 possums: 20 necropsied; 6 trapped and released. Most possums (77%) were common ringtails from inner Melbourne. Nine had ulcers, ranging from single and mild, to multiple and severe, exposing bones and tendons in three cases. M. ulcerans was confirmed in 73% (19/26) of examined possums: 8 with lesions and 11 without. Oral swabs were most frequently indicative of M. ulcerans infection status. Severely ulcerated possums had widespread systemic internal bacterial dissemination and were shedding M. ulcerans in faeces. The anatomical distribution of ulcers and PCR positivity of biological samples suggests possums may contract BU from bites of M. ulcerans-harbouring mosquitoes, traumatic skin wounds, ingestion of an unknown environmental source, and/or during early development in the pouch. Ringtail possums appear highly susceptible to infection with M. ulcerans and are important bacterial reservoirs in Victoria. Oral swabs should be considered for diagnosis or surveillance of infected possums. A One Health approach is needed to design and implement integrated interventions that reduce M. ulcerans transmission in Victoria, thereby protecting wildlife and humans from this emerging zoonotic disease.

Severe cases of Buruli ulcer (infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans) in common ringtail possums in Victoria adversely affect animal welfare

Buruli ulcer is a chronic ulcerative disease of the skin and subcutaneous tissues caused by infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans. Although Australian possums are known to be susceptible to Buruli ulcer, many aspects of the disease in possums, including welfare impacts, remain largely unreported. Severe clinical Buruli ulcer was identified in four common ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) from Melbourne, Victoria. All four possums were euthanased due to the presence of deep ulcerative lesions on paws, with extensive tissue necrosis that exposed bones and tendons in three cases. Histologically, there was severe ulcerative necrotising pyogranulomatous dermatitis, panniculitis and myositis, with intralesional acid-fast bacteria. M. ulcerans was detected by real-time PCR in all swabs, tissues and faeces collected from all four cases. Buruli ulcer may be an important and under-recognised cause of poor possum welfare in endemic areas. The physical impacts of the severe cutaneous lesions, especially those extending to underlying bones and joints, would have directly impaired the mobility of these possums, affecting navigation of their natural environments and expression of natural behaviours including foraging and socialising. Systemic distribution of M. ulcerans throughout all major internal organs, as observed here, may further impact the health and fitness of infected possums. Faecal shedding of M. ulcerans in all four cases supports the role of possums as zoonotic reservoirs. Further research is needed to investigate the epidemiology, pathogenesis and welfare impacts of Buruli ulcer in possums and to inform the design of interventions that may protect their health and welfare.

Intra- and interspecies infectious neighbourhoods as determinant parameters for Mycobacterium bovis infection among badgers in southwestern France

The epidemiological system for Mycobacterium bovis in France involves cattle and, in some areas, wildlife species (mainly badgers and wild boar). This multi-host aspect complicates the control and eradication prospects for bovine tuberculosis in endemic areas, despite the surveillance and control measures implemented for decades in this officially tuberculosis-free European country. To improve control measures, and to manage spillback transmission from badgers to cattle, it is necessary to clarify the transmission mechanisms of M. bovis in these epidemiological systems. We modelled a badger population from a southwestern endemic area by a Dirichlet tessellation based on a sett census conducted by local hunters and trappers between 2013 and 2015. We then used a logistic regression model to test the association between the infection status of setts and computed variables depicting three types of transmission (intraspecific, interspecific and landscape-associated). The apparent prevalence of infected setts was of 40.5%. Two variables were significantly associated with the probability for a sett to be infected: the proportion of neighbouring setts that were infected (OR: 3.19 [2.04-5.17]95%) and the presence of nearby pastures belonging to an infected farm (OR: 2.33 [1.13-4.89]95%]. While badger culling measures have been implemented according to the national TB control plan in the study area since 2012 (in the vicinity of infected farms and their pastures), our results clearly highlight the need to reinforce measures aimed at reducing both intraspecific and interspecific infection pressure. For this purpose, the promising prospect of badger vaccination could be considered, along with biosecurity measures.

Pathology of Chronic Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae Carriers in a Declining Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis) Population

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) across North America commonly experience population-limiting epizootics of respiratory disease. Although many cases of bighorn sheep pneumonia are polymicrobial, Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae is most frequently associated with all-age mortality events followed by years of low recruitment. Chronic carriage of M. ovipneumoniae by adult females serves as a source of exposure of naïve juveniles; relatively few ewes may be responsible for maintenance of infection within a herd. Test-and-remove strategies focused on removal of adult females with evidence of persistent or intermittent shedding (hereafter chronic carriers) may reduce prevalence and mitigate mortality. Postmortem confirmation of pneumonia in chronic carriers has been inadequately reported and the pathology has not been thoroughly characterized, limiting our understanding of important processes shaping the epidemiology of pneumonia in bighorn sheep. Here we document postmortem findings and characterize the lesions of seven ewes removed from a declining bighorn sheep population in Wyoming, USA, following at least two antemortem detections of M. ovipneumoniae within a 14-mo period. We confirmed that 6/7 (85.7%) had variable degrees of chronic pneumonia. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae was detected in the lung of 4/7 (57.1%) animals postmortem. Four (57.1%) had paranasal sinus masses, all of which were classified as inflammatory, hyperplastic lesions. Pasteurella multocida was detected in all seven (100%) animals, while Trueperella pyogenes was detected in 5/7 (71.4%). Our findings indicate that not all chronic carriers have pneumonia, nor do all have detectable M. ovipneumoniae in the lung. Further, paranasal sinus masses are a common but inconsistent finding, and whether sinus lesions predispose to persistence or result from chronic carriage remains unclear. Our findings indicate that disease is variable in chronic M. ovipneumoniae carriers, underscoring the need for further efforts to characterize pathologic processes and underlying mechanisms in this system to inform management.

Modeling target-density-based cull strategies to contain foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks

Total ring depopulation is sometimes used as a management strategy for emerging infectious diseases in livestock, which raises ethical concerns regarding the potential slaughter of large numbers of healthy animals. We evaluated a farm-density-based ring culling strategy to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom (UK), which may allow for some farms within rings around infected premises (IPs) to escape depopulation. We simulated this reduced farm density, or "target density", strategy using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, state-transition algorithm. We modeled FMD spread in four counties in the UK that have different farm demographics, using 740,000 simulations in a full-factorial analysis of epidemic impact measures (i.e., culled animals, culled farms, and epidemic length) and cull strategy parameters (i.e., target farm density, daily farm cull capacity, and cull radius). All of the cull strategy parameters listed above were drivers of epidemic impact. Our simulated target density strategy was usually more effective at combatting FMD compared with traditional total ring depopulation when considering mean culled animals and culled farms and was especially effective when daily farm cull capacity was low. The differences in epidemic impact measures among the counties are likely driven by farm demography, especially differences in cattle and farm density. To prevent over-culling and the associated economic, organizational, ethical, and psychological impacts, the target density strategy may be worth considering in decision-making processes for future control of FMD and other diseases.

Wildlife vaccination strategies for eliminating bovine tuberculosis in white-tailed deer populations

Many pathogens of humans and livestock also infect wildlife that can act as a reservoir and challenge disease control or elimination. Efficient and effective prioritization of research and management actions requires an understanding of the potential for new tools to improve elimination probability with feasible deployment strategies that can be implemented at scale. Wildlife vaccination is gaining interest as a tool for managing several wildlife diseases. To evaluate the effect of vaccinating white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), in combination with harvest, in reducing and eliminating bovine tuberculosis from deer populations in Michigan, we developed a mechanistic age-structured disease transmission model for bovine tuberculosis with integrated disease management. We evaluated the impact of pulse vaccination across a range of vaccine properties. Pulse vaccination was effective for reducing disease prevalence rapidly with even low (30%) to moderate (60%) vaccine coverage of the susceptible and exposed deer population and was further improved when combined with increased harvest. The impact of increased harvest depended on the relative strength of transmission modes, i.e., direct vs indirect transmission. Vaccine coverage and efficacy were the most important vaccine properties for reducing and eliminating disease from the local population. By fitting the model to the core endemic area of bovine tuberculosis in Michigan, USA, we identified feasible integrated management strategies involving vaccination and increased harvest that reduced disease prevalence in free-ranging deer. Few scenarios led to disease elimination due to the chronic nature of bovine tuberculosis. A long-term commitment to regular vaccination campaigns, and further research on increasing vaccines efficacy and uptake rate in free-ranging deer are important for disease management.

The evolution of parasite virulence under targeted culling and harvesting in wildlife and livestock

There is a clear need to understand the effect of human intervention on the evolution of infectious disease. In particular, culling and harvesting of both wildlife and managed livestock populations are carried out in a wide range of management practices, and they have the potential to impact the evolution of a broad range of disease characteristics. Applying eco-evolutionary theory we show that once culling/harvesting becomes targeted on specific disease classes, the established result that culling selects for higher virulence is only found when sufficient infected individuals are culled. If susceptible or recovered individuals are targeted, selection for lower virulence can occur. An important implication of this result is that when culling to eradicate an infectious disease from a population, while it is optimal to target infected individuals, the consequent evolution can increase the basic reproductive ratio of the infection, R 0 , and make parasite eradication more difficult. We show that increases in evolved virulence due to the culling of infected individuals can lead to excess population decline when sustainably harvesting a population. In contrast, culling susceptible or recovered individuals can select for decreased virulence and a reduction in population decline through culling. The implications to the evolution of virulence are typically the same in wildlife populations, that are regulated by the parasite, and livestock populations, that have a constant population size where restocking balances the losses due to mortality. However, the well-known result that vertical transmission selects for lower virulence and transmission in wildlife populations is less marked in livestock populations for parasites that convey long-term immunity since restocking can enhance the density of the immune class. Our work emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolutionary consequences of intervention strategies and the different ecological feedbacks that can occur in wildlife and livestock populations.

Assessing mammal fence crossing and local fence management in relation to classical swine fever spread in Japan

Infectious diseases at the wildlife-livestock-human interface have become a crucial issue, and evidence-based measures are growing increasingly important. One countermeasure against animal diseases in wildlife is using fencing to contain and reduce disease spread and transmission rates between wild populations; however, quantitative assessments on fencing are rare. Moreover, existing research on fencing has highlighted knowledge gaps on the social and ecological aspects relevant to the use and design of fences. To control the spread of classical swine fever, fences were installed from the east to west in Gifu Prefecture, Japan, by March 2019, with the aim of restricting wild boar movement. To clarify the process of installation and maintenance of the fences, we conducted semi-structured interviews with prefectural government officers in Gifu Prefecture. Additionally, we installed infrared-triggered cameras at fence locations with and without gaps to evaluate the fence permeability of mammals. We used a generalized linear mixed model to evaluate the relationship between the presence of gaps and the relative abundance and permeability of each mammal. Our findings showed that the occurrence of gaps was inevitable during the installation and management of wide-area perimeter fence in Japan, partly because of social factors. For example, fences could not be installed on roads that were frequently used by residents and were not adequately maintained owing to budgetary reasons in some cases. Analysis of footage from the infrared-triggered cameras revealed that several mammal species crossed the fence at gaps and even had the ability to cross the gapless parts of the fences. Wild boars crossed through the gaps regularly. It is possible that Sika deer, Japanese serows, raccoons, Japanese badgers, raccoon dogs, Japanese macaques, and feral cats crossed through fence gaps because their relative abundance was high at gap locations. In contrast, Japanese hares slipped through the fence mesh rather than crossing through the gaps. In conclusion, we suggest that coordination and collaboration among related parties, a sufficient supply of fence materials, and securing a budget for fence maintenance are important for fence installation and maintenance. Furthermore, as fence gaps are inevitable, technical development of countermeasures for these gaps could be effective.

Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight

Human monkeypox (mpox) virus is a viral zoonosis that belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus of the Poxviridae family, which presents with similar symptoms as those seen in human smallpox patients. Mpox is an increasing concern globally, with over 80,000 cases in non-endemic countries as of December 2022. In this review, we provide a brief history and ecology of mpox, its basic virology, and the key differences in mpox viral fitness traits before and after 2022. We summarize and critique current knowledge from epidemiological mathematical models, within-host models, and between-host transmission models using the One Health approach, where we distinguish between models that focus on immunity from vaccination, geography, climatic variables, as well as animal models. We report various epidemiological parameters, such as the reproduction number, R0, in a condensed format to facilitate comparison between studies. We focus on how mathematical modelling studies have led to novel mechanistic insight into mpox transmission and pathogenesis. As mpox is predicted to lead to further infection peaks in many historically non-endemic countries, mathematical modelling studies of mpox can provide rapid actionable insights into viral dynamics to guide public health measures and mitigation strategies.

Effects of culling vampire bats on the spatial spread and spillover of rabies virus

Controlling pathogen circulation in wildlife reservoirs is notoriously challenging. In Latin America, vampire bats have been culled for decades in hopes of mitigating lethal rabies infections in humans and livestock. Whether culls reduce or exacerbate rabies transmission remains controversial. Using Bayesian state-space models, we show that a 2-year, spatially extensive bat cull in an area of exceptional rabies incidence in Peru failed to reduce spillover to livestock, despite reducing bat population density. Viral whole genome sequencing and phylogeographic analyses further demonstrated that culling before virus arrival slowed viral spatial spread, but reactive culling accelerated spread, suggesting that culling-induced changes in bat dispersal promoted viral invasions. Our findings question the core assumptions of density-dependent transmission and localized viral maintenance that underlie culling bats as a rabies prevention strategy and provide an epidemiological and evolutionary framework to understand the outcomes of interventions in complex wildlife disease systems.

Animal Models, Zoonotic Reservoirs, and Cross-Species Transmission of Emerging Human-Infecting Coronaviruses

Over the past three decades, coronavirus (CoV) diseases have impacted humans more than any other emerging infectious disease. The recent emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), has resulted in huge economic disruptions and loss of human lives. The SARS-CoV-2 genome was found to mutate more rapidly due to sustained transmission in humans and potentially animals, resulting in variants of concern (VOCs) that threaten global human health. However, the primary difficulties are filling in the current knowledge gaps in terms of the origin and modalities of emergence for these viruses. Because many CoVs threatening human health are suspected to have a zoonotic origin, identifying the animal hosts implicated in the spillover or spillback events would be beneficial for current pandemic management and to prevent future outbreaks. In this review, wesummarize the animal models, zoonotic reservoirs, and cross-species transmission of the emerging human CoVs. Finally, we comment on potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOCs and the new SARS-CoV-2 recombinants currently under investigation.

Health Monitoring for Laboratory Salamanders

Laboratory animal health monitoring programs are necessary to protect animal health and welfare, the validity of experimental data, and human health against zoonotic infections. Health monitoring programs should be designed based on a risk assessment and knowledge about the biology and transmission of salamander pathogens. Both traditional and molecular diagnostic platforms are available for salamanders, and they provide complementary information. A comprehensive approach to health monitoring leverages the advantages of multiple platforms to provide a more complete picture of colony health and pathogen status. This chapter presents key considerations in the design and implementation of a colony health monitoring program for laboratory salamanders, including protocols for necropsy and sample collection.

THE IMPLEMENTATION GAP IN EMERGING DISEASE RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE WILDLIFE TRADE

The wildlife trade has been characterized as one of the biggest risk factors in the emergence of new infectious diseases. In the shadow of COVID-19, there is growing political and scientific urgency to manage this risk. Existing studies and experiences make it clear that something must be done but are less clear on how to get it done. It is a quite different task to accumulate evidence on the presence of pathogens, their locations in the supply chain, and their spillover to new hosts than to identify effective ways to prevent and mitigate emerging disease under real-world conditions. This study sought peer-reviewed evidence on the effectiveness, acceptability, feasibility, and sustainability of risk reduction interventions for zoonotic and nonzoonotic disease emergence in the wildlife trade. An environmental scan triangulated information from a scoping review following a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis extension for scoping review protocol, two narrative literature reviews, and key informant interviews of 26 international wildlife health experts. Existing literature has been inattentive to program implementation or evaluation studies. There was insufficient evidence to identify effective and sustainable risk management actions. Studies on the effects of social, epidemiologic, and ecologic context on intervention success was lacking, as was research using a complex systems perspective. The lack of systematic program evaluations or implementation studies leaves decision makers with insufficient evidence to select interventions likely to be acceptable, effective, and sustainable within and across the disparate context of the wildlife trade. This necessitates adaptive risk management and innovations in program implementation and evaluation to ensure evidence-based risk management.

The value of vaccines

Optimizing vaccine spending depends on recognizing the full value of vaccination (VoV). Existing taxonomies of such value are not comprehensive because they are not guided by general theories. I rely on two such theories: subjective-value theory claims that what has value is determined by what people actually or ideally want in life. A welfarist theory of government states that a fundamental objective of government is to promote social value (or social welfare). These jointly imply that any aspect of life that individuals actually or ideally value and that could be negatively affected by vaccine-preventable diseases (and therefore positively affected by preventive vaccines) is an element of VoV. I build a more comprehensive-value taxonomy than currently exists based on this implication.

The African swine fever modelling challenge: Model comparison and lessons learnt

Robust epidemiological knowledge and predictive modelling tools are needed to address challenging objectives, such as: understanding epidemic drivers; forecasting epidemics; and prioritising control measures. Often, multiple modelling approaches can be used during an epidemic to support effective decision making in a timely manner. Modelling challenges contribute to understanding the pros and cons of different approaches and to fostering technical dialogue between modellers. In this paper, we present the results of the first modelling challenge in animal health - the ASF Challenge - which focused on a synthetic epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) on an island. The modelling approaches proposed by five independent international teams were compared. We assessed their ability to predict temporal and spatial epidemic expansion at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boar, and to prioritise a limited number of alternative interventions. We also compared their qualitative and quantitative spatio-temporal predictions over the first two one-month projection phases of the challenge. Top-performing models in predicting the ASF epidemic differed according to the challenge phase, host species, and in predicting spatial or temporal dynamics. Ensemble models built using all team-predictions outperformed any individual model in at least one phase. The ASF Challenge demonstrated that accounting for the interface between livestock and wildlife is key to increasing our effectiveness in controlling emerging animal diseases, and contributed to improving the readiness of the scientific community to face future ASF epidemics. Finally, we discuss the lessons learnt from model comparison to guide decision making.

Eyes on the herd: Quantifying ungulate density from satellite, unmanned aerial systems, and GPScollar data

Novel approaches to quantifying density and distributions could help biologists adaptively manage wildlife populations, particularly if methods are accurate, consistent, cost-effective, rapid, and sensitive to change. Such approaches may also improve research on interactions between density and processes of interest, such as disease transmission across multiple populations. We assess how satellite imagery, unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery, and Global Positioning System (GPS) collar data vary in characterizing elk density, distribution, and count patterns across times with and without supplemental feeding at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in the US state of Wyoming. We also present the first comparison of satellite imagery data with traditional counts for ungulates in a temperate system. We further evaluate seven different aggregation metrics to identify the most consistent and sensitive metrics for comparing density and distribution across time and populations. All three data sources detected higher densities and aggregation locations of elk during supplemental feeding than non-feeding at the NER. Kernel density estimates (KDEs), KDE polygon areas, and the first quantile of interelk distances detected differences with the highest sensitivity and were most highly correlated across data sources. Both UAS and satellite imagery provide snapshots of density and distribution patterns of most animals in the area at lower cost than GPS collars. While satellite-based counts were lower than traditional counts, aggregation metrics matched those from UAS and GPS data sources when animals appeared in high contrast to the landscape, including brown elk against new snow in open areas. UAS counts of elk were similar to traditional ground-based counts on feed grounds and are the best data source for assessing changes in small spatial extents. Satellite, UAS, or GPS data can provide appropriate data for assessing density and changes in density from adaptive management actions. For the NER, where high elk densities are beneath controlled airspace, GPS collar data will be most useful for evaluating how management actions, including changes in the dates of supplemental feeding, influence elk density and aggregation across large spatial extents. Using consistent and sensitive measures of density may improve research on the drivers and effects of density within and across a wide range of species.

Consumers' purchase intention of wild freshwater fish during the COVID-19 pandemic

The association between the COVID-19 pandemic and the wildlife trade in the seafood market in Wuhan has raised public concern regarding wildlife consumption and public health safety. Considering several coronavirus transmission incidents related to aquatic products and the location of wild freshwater fish in aquatic consumption in China, the effects of COVID-19 on the purchase intention of wild freshwater fish was investigated. Based on 1163 online questionnaires from eight provinces (including two province-level municipalities) in the Yangtze River Basin, ordered logistic regression was carried out to analyze the influencing factors of purchase intention of wild freshwater fish during the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic had changed consumers' perceived risk and purchase frequency of wild freshwater fish. External stimulus caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had little influence on perceived risk and purchase intention. Consumer preference had a significant impact on perceived risk and purchase intention. Therefore, efforts should be put to strengthen the popularization of aquatic product knowledge, guide the public to develop scientific and civic eating habits, and improve the traceability system of aquatic products. [EconLit Citations: D12-Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Q22-Fishery; Aquaculture].

The effects of population management on wild ungulates: A systematic map of evidence for UK species

INTRODUCTION

Over recent decades, the abundance and geographic ranges of wild ungulate species have expanded in many parts of Europe, including the UK. Populations are managed to mitigate their ecological impacts using interventions, such as shooting, fencing and administering contraception. Predicting how target species will respond to interventions is critical for developing sustainable, effective and efficient management strategies. However, the quantity and quality of evidence of the effects of interventions on ungulate species is unclear. To address this, we systematically mapped research on the effects of population management on wild ungulate species resident in the UK.

METHODS

We searched four bibliographic databases, Google Scholar and nine organisational websites using search terms tested with a library of 30 relevant articles. Worldwide published peer-reviewed articles were considered, supplemented by 'grey' literature from UK-based sources. Three reviewers identified and screened articles for eligibility at title, abstract and full-text levels, based on predefined criteria. Data and metadata were extracted and summarised in a narrative synthesis supported by structured graphical matrices.

RESULTS

A total of 123 articles were included in the systematic map. Lethal interventions were better represented (85%, n = 105) than non-lethal interventions (25%, n = 25). Outcomes related to demography and behaviour were reported in 95% of articles (n = 117), whereas effects on health, physiology and morphology were studied in only 11% of articles (n = 14). Well-studied species included wild pigs (n = 58), red deer (n = 28) and roe deer (n = 23).

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence for the effects of population management on wild ungulate species is growing but currently limited and unevenly distributed across intervention types, outcomes and species. Priorities for primary research include: species responses to non-lethal interventions, the side-effects of shooting and studies on sika deer and Chinese muntjac. Shooting is the only intervention for which sufficient evidence exists for systematic review or meta-analysis.

'Reserve effect': An opportunity to mitigate human-wild boar conflicts

Wild boar growth in numbers and range is associated with increasing economic and environmental impact. Hunting has been traditionally used to reduce wild boar numbers. Areas where hunting is not allowed may attract wild boar from neighbouring hunting grounds. This phenomenon is called 'reserve effect' and could cause temporarily localised, high densities of wild boar in areas where hunting is banned. To investigate the occurrence of 'reserve effect', this study was conducted in two natural reserves of 400 and 250 ha inside the Montseny Natural Park, Catalonia, Spain where regular hunting of wild boar is not permitted, and only sporadic driven hunts/year are authorised for population control. The aims of the study were to evaluate if wild boar use these reserves as a refuge when hunting is carried out in the surrounding areas and to assess the effects that occasional drive hunts inside these reserves may have on wild boar numbers and social organization. From 2012 to 2015 camera traps were placed in the two reserves without using any bait. Cameras operated for 1.759 days, including hunting and non-hunting seasons, and 37.574 wild boar images were obtained. A 'reserve effect' was detected, as following hunting in the surroundings grounds, the number of wild boar increases inside reserves. Occasional driven hunts conducted in the reserves are effective in reducing the number of individuals and the effects persist for at least 45 days. Hunting disrupts wild boar social organization, as group size was significantly reduced. These results suggested that targeting refuge areas, once hunting in the surroundings causes wild boar to concentrate in these areas, is effective for population control. These findings could also be used to design trategies to optimise population control and offer opportunities for disease management such as vaccination, or to facilitate eradication in areas affected by disease outbreaks.

Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

The management of infectious diseases in wildlife reservoirs is challenging and faces several limitations. However, detailed knowledge of host-pathogen systems often reveal heterogeneity among the hosts' contribution to transmission. Management strategies targeting specific classes of individuals and/or areas, having a particular role in transmission, could be more effective and more acceptable than population-wide interventions. In the wild population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex-a protected species) of the Bargy massif (French Alps), females transmit brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) infection in ~90% of cases, and most transmissions occur in the central spatial units ("core area"). Therefore, we expanded an individual-based model, developed in a previous study, to test whether strategies targeting females or the core area, or both, would be more effective. We simulated the relative efficacy of realistic strategies for the studied population, combining test-and-remove (euthanasia of captured animals with seropositive test results) and partial culling of unmarked animals. Targeting females or the core area was more effective than untargeted management options, and strategies targeting both were even more effective. Interestingly, the number of ibex euthanized and culled in targeted strategies were lower than in untargeted ones, thus decreasing the conservation costs while increasing the sanitary benefits. Although there was no silver bullet for the management of brucellosis in the studied population, targeted strategies offered a wide range of promising refinements to classical sanitary measures. We therefore encourage to look for heterogeneity in other wildlife diseases and to evaluate potential strategies for improving management in terms of efficacy but also acceptability.

Characterizing the demographic history and prion protein variation to infer susceptibility to chronic wasting disease in a naïve population of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

Assessments of the adaptive potential in natural populations are essential for understanding and predicting responses to environmental stressors like climate change and infectious disease. Species face a range of stressors in human-dominated landscapes, often with contrasting effects. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; deer) are expanding in the northern part of their range following decreasing winter severity and increasing forage availability. Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease affecting deer, is likewise expanding and represents a major threat to deer and other cervids. We obtained tissue samples from free-ranging deer across their native range in Ontario, Canada, which has yet to detect CWD in wild populations. We used high-throughput sequencing to assess neutral genomic variation and variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) that is partly responsible for the protein misfolding when deer contract CWD. Neutral variation revealed a high number of rare alleles and no population structure, and demographic models suggested a rapid historical population expansion. Allele frequencies of PRNP variants associated with CWD susceptibility and disease progression were evenly distributed across the landscape and consistent with deer populations not infected with CWD. We estimated the selection coefficient of CWD, with simulations showing an observable and rapid shift in PRNP allele frequencies that coincides with the start of a novel CWD outbreak. Sustained surveillance of genomic and PRNP variation can be a useful tool for guiding management practices, which is especially important for CWD-free regions where deer are managed for ecological and economic benefits.

Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases

The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population.

Research perspectives on animal health in the era of artificial intelligence

Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) approaches in animal health (AH) makes it possible to address highly complex issues such as those encountered in quantitative and predictive epidemiology, animal/human precision-based medicine, or to study host × pathogen interactions. AI may contribute (i) to diagnosis and disease case detection, (ii) to more reliable predictions and reduced errors, (iii) to representing more realistically complex biological systems and rendering computing codes more readable to non-computer scientists, (iv) to speeding-up decisions and improving accuracy in risk analyses, and (v) to better targeted interventions and anticipated negative effects. In turn, challenges in AH may stimulate AI research due to specificity of AH systems, data, constraints, and analytical objectives. Based on a literature review of scientific papers at the interface between AI and AH covering the period 2009-2019, and interviews with French researchers positioned at this interface, the present study explains the main AH areas where various AI approaches are currently mobilised, how it may contribute to renew AH research issues and remove methodological or conceptual barriers. After presenting the possible obstacles and levers, we propose several recommendations to better grasp the challenge represented by the AH/AI interface. With the development of several recent concepts promoting a global and multisectoral perspective in the field of health, AI should contribute to defract the different disciplines in AH towards more transversal and integrative research.