Childhood leukaemia, nuclear sites, and population mixing

Incidence of childhood leukemia before and after shut down of nuclear power plants in Germany in 2011: A population-based register study during 2004 to 2019

The association between leukemia and proximity to nuclear-power-plants (NPPs) has been assessed in several countries with inconsistent results. A case-control study from Germany had shown an increased risk for childhood leukemia (diagnoses 1980-2003) near NPPs. Germany began shutting down nuclear reactors in 2011, following the Fukushima disaster. We tested whether the previously observed association between leukemia and proximity to NPP persisted despite the shutdown. We used an ecological study design to investigate the incidence of leukemia during 2004 to 2019 in children aged 0 to 14 years living near NPPs where at least one reactor was shut down in 2011. We defined study and control areas as municipalities whose surface area was at least 75% within 10 km or between 10 and 50 km of NPPs, respectively. We calculated age-standardized rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using control-areas as the reference. We also computed standardized incidence ratios (SIR) separately for each NPP using incidence rates of the German population as a reference. IRR decreased from 1.20 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-1.77) in 2004 to 2011 to 1.12 (0.75-1.68) in 2012 to 2019. Analyses of single plants showed an excess of childhood leukemia during 2004 to 2019 for the Unterweser-NPP, based only on three cases, and the Krümmel-NPP (n = 14; SIR: 1.98, 1.17-3.35). We found slightly decreasing of leukemia incidence rate ratios after the shutdown of nuclear reactors in 2011. Due to the small number of cases, risk estimates have large uncertainty. Further research including a longer follow-up is warranted. The consistent excess of incidence cases around Krümmel may require analytical epidemiological analysis.

Association of Toll-like receptors polymorphisms with the risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the Brazilian Amazon

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common hematologic malignancy in children in childhood. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in key molecules of the immune system, such as Toll-like receptors (TLRs) and CD14 molecules, are associated with the development of several diseases. However, their role in ALL is unknown. A case–control study was performed with 152 ALL patients and 187 healthy individuals to investigate the role of SNPs in TLRs and the CD14 gene in ALL. In this study, TLR6 C > T rs5743810 [OR: 3.20, 95% CI: 1.11–9.17, p = 0.003) and TLR9 C > T rs187084 (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.23–4.26, p = 0.000) seems to be a risk for development of ALL. In addition, the TLR1 T > G rs5743618 and TLR6 C > T rs5743810 polymorphisms with protection against death (OR: 0.17, 95% IC: 0.04–0.79, p = 0.008; OR: 0.48, 95% IC: 0.24–0.94, p = 0.031, respectively). Our results show that SNPs in TLRs genes may be involved in the pathogenesis of ALL and may influence clinical prognosis; however, further studies are necessary to elucidate the role of TLR1, TLR4, TLR5, TLR6, TLR9 and CD14 polymorphisms in this disease.

Increasing Complexity of Molecular Landscapes in Human Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cells during Development and Aging

The past five decades have seen significant progress in our understanding of human hematopoiesis. This has in part been due to the unprecedented development of advanced technologies, which have allowed the identification and characterization of rare subsets of human hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells and their lineage trajectories from embryonic through to adult life. Additionally, surrogate in vitro and in vivo models, although not fully recapitulating human hematopoiesis, have spurred on these scientific advances. These approaches have heightened our knowledge of hematological disorders and diseases and have led to their improved diagnosis and therapies. Here, we review human hematopoiesis at each end of the age spectrum, during embryonic and fetal development and on aging, providing exemplars of recent progress in deciphering the increasingly complex cellular and molecular hematopoietic landscapes in health and disease. This review concludes by highlighting links between chronic inflammation and metabolic and epigenetic changes associated with aging and in the development of clonal hematopoiesis.

Infectious triggers and novel therapeutic opportunities in childhood B cell leukaemia

B cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (B-ALL) is the most common form of childhood cancer. Although treatment has advanced remarkably in the past 50 years, it still fails in ~20% of patients. Recent studies revealed that more than 5% of healthy newborns carry preleukaemic clones that originate in utero, but only a small percentage of these carriers will progress to overt B-ALL. The drivers of progression are unclear, but B-ALL incidence seems to be increasing in parallel with the adoption of modern lifestyles. Emerging evidence shows that a major driver for the conversion from the preleukaemic state to the B-ALL state is exposure to immune stressors, such as infection. Here, we discuss our current understanding of the environmental triggers and genetic predispositions that may lead to B-ALL, highlighting lessons from epidemiology, the clinic and animal models, and identifying priority areas for future research.

28-year incidence and time trends of childhood leukaemia in former East Germany compared to West Germany after German reunification: A study from the German Childhood Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

The aetiology of childhood leukaemia is largely unknown. Analyses of geographical differences may enhance aetiologic insights. The reunification of Germany in 1990 provides a unique opportunity to evaluate incidence patterns and time trends in two merging countries with substantial lifestyle, social and socioeconomic differences. With this study we provide an extensive assessment of 28-year incidence patterns and temporal trends after the German reunification.

METHODS

We identified all children diagnosed with a lymphoid leukaemia (LL) or acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) before the age of 15 years between 1991 and 2018 using the German Childhood Cancer Registry (N = 14,922), and evaluated the incidence pattern and temporal trends in former East Germany compared to West Germany by subtype, age at diagnosis and sex.

RESULTS

Incidence rates of LL were substantially lower (around 20 %) in Eastern Germany compared to Western Germany at the time of reunification. This was followed by a remarkable increase in Eastern Germany across both sexes and age groups until around 2000, when incidence rates reached the same levels as those in Western German federal states. Thereafter, incidence rates remained rather stable with some indications of a slightly decreasing tendency in both Eastern and Western Germany (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) 2005-2018: East Germany = -0.8 %; West Germany = -0.4 %), driven by the 0- to 4-year olds. Overall, AML incidence rates were stable over time in Western Germany, while EAPC for Eastern Germany indicated an increasing tendency (EAPC 1991-2018 = 1.3 %) driven by the older children, mostly during the early 2000s and in most recent years.

CONCLUSION

The underlying mechanisms driving the childhood leukaemia rates remain inconclusive. Linkage studies including individual and clinical data would be valuable in evaluating the impact of a population's social, socioeconomic and lifestyle changes on the risk of childhood leukaemia and disease aetiology overall.

Childhood leukemia near nuclear sites in Belgium: An ecological study at small geographical level

BACKGROUND

A previous investigation of the occurrence of childhood acute leukemia around the Belgian nuclear sites has shown positive associations around one nuclear site (Mol-Dessel). In the following years, the Belgian Cancer Registry has made data available at the smallest administrative unit for which demographic information exists in Belgium, i.e. the statistical sector. This offers the advantage to reduce the potential misclassification due to large geographical scales.

METHODS

The current study performed for the period 2006-2016 uses Poisson models to investigate (i) the incidence of childhood acute leukemia within 20 km around the four Belgian nuclear sites, (ii) exposure-response relationships between cancer incidence and surrogate exposures from the nuclear sites (distance, wind direction frequency and exposure by hypothetical radioactive discharges taking into account historical meteorological conditions). All analyses are carried out at statistical sector level.

RESULTS

Higher incidence rate ratios were found for children <15 years (7 cases, RR = 3.01, 95% CI: 1.43;6.35) and children <5 years (< 5 cases, RR = 3.62, 95% CI: 1.35;9.74) living less than 5 km from the site of Mol-Dessel. In addition, there was an indication for positive exposure-response relationships with the different types of surrogate exposures.

CONCLUSION

Results confirm an increased incidence of acute childhood leukemia around Mol-Dessel, but the number of cases remains very small. Random variation cannot be excluded and the ecological design does not allow concluding on causality. These findings emphasize the need for more in-depth research into the risk factors of childhood leukemia, for a better understanding of the etiology of this disease.

Time-dependent associations between presentation-based infections and subsequent risk of childhood immune cell malignancies

BACKGROUND

Infection is hypothesised as a contributory cause of childhood immune cell malignancies. Although some have reported associations between individual infections and immune cell malignancies, some could be spurious due to infections caused by malignancies that were already active prior to diagnosis.

METHODS

Identified from Taiwan Cancer Registry, ∼3000 children with four commonest immune cell malignancies diagnosed during 2001-2015 at age 1-20 years were identified and matched with 1:10 controls. Using logistic regression, we estimated the time-specific case-versus-control odds ratios of seven common infection presentations in their health records. We also compared recorded unexplained lymph nodes between cases and controls to explore for how long malignancy may be active prior to diagnosis.

RESULTS

Unexplained lymph nodes were increasingly recorded months before the diagnosis of childhood leukaemias and years before the diagnosis of childhood lymphomas. When using p < 0.01 as a guide, large case-control differences in infection records were found mostly within 0-2 months prior to the diagnosis (15 out of 28 comparisons). Changes in odds ratios within 3-35 months (2 out of 28 comparisons) and case-control differences beyond 36+ months prior to diagnosis (7 out of 28 comparisons) was relatively small (∼10 % difference in leukaemias). Statistical power varied according to incidence of malignancy, incidence of infection records, and the age distribution.

CONCLUSION

Immune cell malignancies were likely to be active some time before the diagnosis. Previous studies using conventional population-based methods may not be able to distinguish any small causal link between infection and immune cell malignancies from spurious associations.

Maternal Infection in Pregnancy and Childhood Leukemia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To summarize the published evidence regarding the association between maternal infection during pregnancy and childhood leukemia.

STUDY DESIGN

In this systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO number, CRD42018087289), we searched PubMed and Embase to identify relevant studies. We included human studies that reported associations of at least one measure of maternal infection during pregnancy with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) or all childhood leukemias in the offspring. One reviewer extracted the data first using a standardized form, and the second reviewer independently checked the data for accuracy. Two reviewers used the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the quality of included studies. We conducted random effects meta-analyses to pool the ORs of specific type of infection on ALL and childhood leukemia.

RESULTS

This review included 20 studies (ALL, n = 15; childhood leukemia, n = 14) reported in 32 articles. Most (>65%) included studies reported a positive association between infection variables and ALL or childhood leukemia. Among specific types of infection, we found that influenza during pregnancy was associated with higher risk of ALL (pooled OR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.34-9.90) and childhood leukemia (pooled OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.01-3.11). Varicella (pooled OR, 10.19; 95% CI, 1.98-52.39) and rubella (pooled OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.16-6.71) infections were also associated with higher childhood leukemia risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that maternal infection during pregnancy may be associated with a higher risk of childhood leukemia.

Increased Risk of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Following Gastric Conditions Indicating Helicobacter pylori Infection: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

On the basis of a previous report of increased chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) risk following peptic ulcer, we hypothesized that chronic Helicobacter pylori infection could serve as a risk factor for CML.

METHODS

In a population-based, retrospective case-control study, we used Swedish registry data on 980 patients with CML and 4,960 age- and sex-matched controls to investigate associations between markers of previous infection with Helicobacter pylori and CML incidence.

RESULTS

Previous diagnoses of dyspepsia, gastritis or peptic ulcers, as well as previous proton pump inhibitor (PPI) medication, were all associated with a significantly increased risk of CML (RRs, 1.5-2.0; P = 0.0005-0.05). Meanwhile, neither inflammatory bowel disease nor intake of NSAIDs were associated with CML, indicating that it is not gastrointestinal ulcer or inflammation per se that influences risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistent associations suggest a shared background between gastric conditions and CML, and strengthen the case that Helicobacter pylori could constitute this common risk factor.

IMPACT

As the etiology of CML is practically unknown, and Helicobacter pylori could potentially be a therapeutic target, even this indirect evidence encourages further studies on the potential involvement of Helicobacter pylori in CML etiology.

Childhood leukaemia near nuclear sites in Belgium, 2002-2008

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

This paper describes an ecological study investigating whether there is an excess incidence of acute leukaemia among children aged 0–14 years living in the vicinity of the nuclear sites in Belgium. Poisson regression modelling was carried out for proximity areas of varying sizes. In addition, the hypothesis of a gradient in leukaemia incidence with increasing levels of surrogate exposures was explored by means of focused hypothesis tests and generalized additive models. For the surrogate exposures, three proxies were used, that is, residential proximity to the nuclear site, prevailing winds and simulated radioactive discharges, on the basis of mathematical dispersion modelling. No excess incidence of acute leukaemia was observed around the nuclear power plants of Doel or Tihange nor around the nuclear site of Fleurus, which is a major manufacturer of radioactive isotopes in Europe. Around the site of Mol-Dessel, however, two- to three-fold increased leukaemia incidence rates were found in children aged 0–14 years living in the 0–5, 0–10 and the 0–15 km proximity areas. For this site, there was evidence for a gradient in leukaemia incidence with increased proximity, prevailing winds and simulated radioactive discharges, suggesting a potential link with the site that needs further investigation. An increased incidence of acute leukaemia in children aged 0–14 years was observed around one nuclear site that hosted reprocessing activities in the past and where nuclear research activities and radioactive waste treatment are ongoing.

A causal mechanism for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

In this Review, I present evidence supporting a multifactorial causation of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), a major subtype of paediatric cancer. ALL evolves in two discrete steps. First, in utero initiation by fusion gene formation or hyperdiploidy generates a covert, pre-leukaemic clone. Second, in a small fraction of these cases, the postnatal acquisition of secondary genetic changes (primarily V(D)J recombination-activating protein (RAG) and activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID)-driven copy number alterations in the case of ETS translocation variant 6 (ETV6)-runt-related transcription factor 1 (RUNX1)+ ALL) drives conversion to overt leukaemia. Epidemiological and modelling studies endorse a dual role for common infections. Microbial exposures earlier in life are protective but, in their absence, later infections trigger the critical secondary mutations. Risk is further modified by inherited genetics, chance and, probably, diet. Childhood ALL can be viewed as a paradoxical consequence of progress in modern societies, where behavioural changes have restrained early microbial exposure. This engenders an evolutionary mismatch between historical adaptations of the immune system and contemporary lifestyles. Childhood ALL may be a preventable cancer.

The Krümmel (Germany) Childhood Leukaemia Cluster: a review and update

The debate surrounding possible adverse health effects from the civil use of nuclear power under normal operating conditions has been on-going since its introduction. It was particularly intensified by the detection of three leukaemia clusters near nuclear installations, i.e. near the reprocessing plants in Sellafield and Dounreay, UK, and near the Krümmel nuclear power plant, Germany, the last of which commenced between 1990 and 1991 and was first described in 1992; it continued until 2003, and an elevated risk up to 2005 has been reported in the literature. A number of expert commissions and working groups were set up by the governments of the German federal states of Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein to investigate the possible causes of the cluster. An overview of the many risk factors that were investigated as a possible explanation of the Krümmel cluster is given here, focussing on radiation, but also including other risk factors. Further, results from related epidemiological and cytogenetic studies are described. In summary, the cause of the occurrence of the Krümmel cluster has to be considered as unknown. Further research on the causes of childhood leukaemia is needed, focussing on epigenetics and on gene-environment interaction. An update of the leukaemia incidence around the Krümmel site shows that the incidence rates are now comparable to the average rate in Germany.

Germline genetic variation in ETV6 and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: a systematic genetic study

BACKGROUND

Hereditary predisposition is rarely suspected for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Recent reports of germline ETV6 variations associated with substantial familial clustering of haematological malignancies indicated that this gene is a potentially important genetic determinant for ALL susceptibility. Our aims in this study were to comprehensively identify ALL predisposition variants in ETV6 and to determine the extent to which they contributed to the overall risk of childhood ALL.

METHODS

Whole-exome sequencing of an index family with several cases of ALL was done to identify causal variants for ALL predisposition. Targeted sequencing of ETV6 was done in children from the Children's Oncology Group and St Jude Children's Research Hospital front-line ALL trials. Patients were included in this study on the basis of their enrolment in these clinical trials and the availability of germline DNA. ETV6 variant genotypes were compared with non-ALL controls to define ALL-related germline risk variants. ETV6 variant function was characterised bioinformatically and correlated with clinical and demographic features in children with ALL.

FINDINGS

We identified a novel non-sense ETV6 variant (p.Arg359X) with a high penetrance in an index family. Subsequent targeted sequencing of ETV6 in 4405 childhood ALL cases identified 31 exonic variants (four non-sense, 21 missense, one splice site, and five frameshift variants) that were potentially related to ALL risk in 35 cases (1%). 15 (48%) of 31 ALL-related ETV6 variants clustered in the erythroblast transformation specific domain and were predicted to be highly deleterious. Children with ALL-related ETV6 variants were significantly older at leukaemia diagnosis than those without (10·2 years [IQR 5·3-13·8] vs 4·7 years [3·0-8·7]; p=0·017). The hyperdiploid leukaemia karyotype was highly over-represented in ALL cases harbouring germline ETV6 risk variants compared with the wild-type group (nine [64%] of 14 cases vs 538 [27%] of 2007 cases; p=0·0050).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings indicated germline ETV6 variations as the basis of a novel genetic syndrome associated with predisposition to childhood ALL. The development of recommendations for clinical interventions and surveillance for individuals harbouring ALL-related ETV6 variants are needed.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health and American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities.

Epidemiological evidence of childhood leukaemia around nuclear power plants

A few reports of increased numbers of leukaemia cases (clusters) in children living in the vicinity of nuclear power plants (NPP) and other nuclear installations have triggered a heated debate over the possible causes of the disease. In this review the most important cases of childhood leukaemia clusters around NPPs are described and analyzed with special emphasis on the relationship between the environmental exposure to ionizing radiation and the risk of leukaemia. Since, as indicated, a lifetime residency in the proximity of an NPP does not pose any specific health risk to people and the emitted ionizing radiation is too small to cause cancer, a number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the childhood leukaemia clusters. The most likely explanation for the clusters is 'population mixing', i.e., the influx of outside workers to rural regions where nuclear installations are being set up and where local people are not immune to pathogens brought along with the incomers.

EBV, HCMV, HHV6, and HHV7 screening in bone marrow samples from children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common cancer in childhood worldwide and Mexico has reported one of the highest incidence rates. An infectious etiology has been suggested and supported by epidemiological evidences; however, the identity of the involved agent(s) is not known. We considered that early transmitted lymphotropic herpes viruses were good candidates, since transforming mechanisms have been described for them and some are already associated with human cancers. In this study we interrogated the direct role of EBV, HCMV, HHV6, and HHV7 human herpes viruses in childhood ALL. Viral genomes were screened in 70 bone marrow samples from ALL patients through standard and a more sensitive nested PCR. Positive samples were detected only by nested PCR indicating a low level of infection. Our result argues that viral genomes were not present in all leukemic cells, and, hence, infection most likely was not part of the initial genetic lesions leading to ALL. The high statistical power of the study suggested that these agents are not involved in the genesis of ALL in Mexican children. Additional analysis showed that detected infections or coinfections were not associated with prognosis.

Childhood leukaemia risks: from unexplained findings near nuclear installations to recommendations for future research

Recent findings related to childhood leukaemia incidence near nuclear installations have raised questions which can be answered neither by current knowledge on radiation risk nor by other established risk factors. In 2012, a workshop was organised on this topic with two objectives: (a) review of results and discussion of methodological limitations of studies near nuclear installations; (b) identification of directions for future research into the causes and pathogenesis of childhood leukaemia. The workshop gathered 42 participants from different disciplines, extending widely outside of the radiation protection field. Regarding the proximity of nuclear installations, the need for continuous surveillance of childhood leukaemia incidence was highlighted, including a better characterisation of the local population. The creation of collaborative working groups was recommended for consistency in methodologies and the possibility of combining data for future analyses. Regarding the causes of childhood leukaemia, major fields of research were discussed (environmental risk factors, genetics, infections, immunity, stem cells, experimental research). The need for multidisciplinary collaboration in developing research activities was underlined, including the prevalence of potential predisposition markers and investigating further the infectious aetiology hypothesis. Animal studies and genetic/epigenetic approaches appear of great interest. Routes for future research were pointed out.

Implications of radiation dose and exposed populations on radiation protection in the 21st century

Radiation is in the public eye because of Fukushima, computed tomography examinations, airport screenings, and possible terrorist attacks. What if the Boston Marathon pressure cooker had also contained a radioactive source? Nuclear power may be on the resurgence. Because of the increasing uses of radiation, the increases in population exposures, and the increasing knowledge of radiation effects, constant vigilance is needed to keep up with the changing times. Psychosocial disorders associated with the inappropriate (but real) fear of radiation need to be recognized as radiation detriments. Radiation risk communication, radiation education, and communication must improve at all levels: to members of the public, to the media, to other scientists, and to radiation professionals. Stakeholders must continue to be involved in all radiation protection initiatives. Finally, we are at a crisis as the number of war babies (me) and baby boomers (you?) who are also radiation professionals continues its rapid decline, and there are few in the pipeline to fill the current and looming substantial need: "The old road is rapidly agin'" (Dylan). NCRP has begun the WARP initiative-Where Are the Radiation Professionals?-an attempt to rejuvenate the pipeline of future professionals before the trickle becomes tiny drops. A Workshop was held in July 2013 with government agencies, military, private sector, universities, White House representatives, and societies to develop a coordinated and national action plan. A "Manhattan Project" is needed to get us "Back to the Future" in terms of the funding levels that existed in years past that provided the necessary resources to train, engage, and retain (a.k.a., jobs) the radiation professionals needed for the nation. If we don't keep swimmin' (Disney's Nemo) we'll "sink like a stone" (Dylan).Introduction of Implications of Radiation Dose and Exposed Populations (Video 2:06, http://links.lww.com/HP/A25).

A paternal environmental legacy: evidence for epigenetic inheritance through the male germ line

Literature on maternal exposures and the risk of epigenetic changes or diseases in the offspring is growing. Paternal contributions are often not considered. However, some animal and epidemiologic studies on various contaminants, nutrition, and lifestyle-related conditions suggest a paternal influence on the offspring's future health. The phenotypic outcomes may have been attributed to DNA damage or mutations, but increasing evidence shows that the inheritance of environmentally induced functional changes of the genome, and related disorders, are (also) driven by epigenetic components. In this essay we suggest the existence of epigenetic windows of susceptibility to environmental insults during sperm development. Changes in DNA methylation, histone modification, and non-coding RNAs are viable mechanistic candidates for a non-genetic transfer of paternal environmental information, from maturing germ cell to zygote. Inclusion of paternal factors in future research will ultimately improve the understanding of transgenerational epigenetic plasticity and health-related effects in future generations.

Genomics of racial and ethnic disparities in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Although the cure rates of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have improved dramatically in the past 40 years, not all children have benefited equally from this impressive progress. Racial and ethnic disparities in the incidence and treatment outcome of childhood ALL persist, with Hispanic children having an elevated risk of developing ALL and one of the lowest survival rates after ALL therapy. A critical barrier to progress is the lack of an understanding of the causes of ALL disparities, particularly racial and ethnic differences in ALL biology. In this review, the authors summarize the current knowledge on population variation in childhood ALL incidence and treatment outcome, discuss the contributing genetic and nongenetic variables, and highlight possible therapeutic interventions to mitigate disparities in ALL.

Leukaemia in young children in the vicinity of British nuclear power plants: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Concern about the risk of leukaemia in children living near nuclear power plants (NPPs) persists. Previous British analyses have been area based and consequently thought to be less effective than case-control studies.

METHODS

Cases of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (LNHL) born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2007, with matched cancer-free controls, were analysed by logistic regression to estimate the risk of residential proximity at birth and diagnosis to the nearest NPP, adjusting for relevant variables.

RESULTS

For 9821 children with LNHL under the age of 5 years, the estimated extra risk associated with residential proximity to an NPP at birth was negative-interpolated Odds Ratio (OR) at 5 km was 0.86 (0.49-1.52). The comparison of 10 618 children with LNHL under five with 16 760 similarly aged children with other cancers also gave a negative estimate of the extra risk of residential proximity at diagnosis-interpolated OR at 5 km was 0.86 (0.62-1.18).

CONCLUSION

Our results show little evidence of an increase in risk of LNHL to children aged under 5 years from living in the vicinity of an NPP. Risk estimates are incompatible with comparable ones published in a recent German case-control study.

Radiation effects on human heredity

In experimental organisms such as fruit flies and mice, increased frequencies in germ cell mutations have been detected following exposure to ionizing radiation. In contrast, there has been no clear evidence for radiation-induced germ cell mutations in humans that lead to birth defects, chromosome aberrations, Mendelian disorders, etc. This situation exists partly because no sensitive and practical genetic marker is available for human studies and also because the number of people exposed to large doses of radiation and subsequently having offspring was small until childhood cancer survivors became an important study population. In addition, the genome of apparently normal individuals seems to contain large numbers of alterations, including dozens to hundreds of nonfunctional alleles. With the number of mutational events in protein-coding genes estimated as less than one per genome after 1 gray (Gy) exposure, it is unsurprising that genetic effects from radiation have not yet been detected conclusively in humans.

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

Background:

Marked influxes of people into rural areas, termed rural population mixing (PM), have been associated with excesses of childhood leukaemia (CL), consistent with mini-epidemics of a mainly immunising, subclinical infection to which CL is a rare response. For such situations of rural PM would promote contacts between infected and susceptible individuals, the latter tending to have a higher than average prevalence in rural or isolated areas. Confusion has arisen from some workers applying the term PM to non-rural situations lacking known recent change.

Methods:

Available PM studies using the original definition of influxes were examined, a meta-analysis carried out of studies of CL in relation to exposure to high levels of rural PM, and also a detailed analysis by age group.

Results:

The meta-analysis of 17 studies shows a significant CL excess in association with rural PM: overall relative risk (RR) at ages 0–14: 1.57; 95% confidence interval 1.44–1.72; at 0–4 years 1.72 (1.54–1.91). This contrasts with the absence of an excess of CL in similarly exposed urban areas (RR 1.00; 0.93–1.07), pointing to a high level of immunity there. The mixed results of studies using other definitions of PM were summarised. The excess associated with rural PM below age 2 years (RR 1.51; 1.17, 1.92) was not appreciably different from that at later childhood ages.

Conclusion:

Much of the inconsistency among studies ostensibly about CL and PM reflects the use of definitions other than that originally proposed. The broad similarity of the CL excess below age 2 with that at older childhood ages is inconsistent with the Greaves’ delayed infection hypothesis, since any infection underlying the former is difficult to consider as delayed.

Infectious illness in children subsequently diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: modeling the trends from birth to diagnosis

Although there is increasing evidence that immune dysregulation in children who develop acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is detectable from birth, debate about the role of infectious exposures in infancy continues. With the aim of quantifying children's infectious exposures, investigators have used a number of infection exposure proxies, but there is a lack of consistency in findings, with some markers indicating increased ALL risks and others decreased risks, the disparity being evident both within and between studies. Accordingly, the authors conducted an in-depth analysis of key infection exposure proxies used in the United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a national population-based case-control study conducted over the period 1991-1996, which combined data from medical records, parental interview, and population census. This longitudinal approach revealed the marked deterioration in immune response that emerged around 5 months prior to ALL diagnosis and confirmed that infectious diagnoses in the first year of life were significantly increased (P < 0.05) in children who developed leukemia between 2 and 14 years of age, as well as in those who had birth orders >1, were not breastfed, lived in deprived areas, or were diagnosed with eczema. By contrast, no association between infectious illness and preschool activity was detected, the lower infection levels among controls whose mothers reported attendance contributing to a significantly reduced ALL odds ratio.

Evidence for under-diagnosis of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in poorer communities within Great Britain

Background:

Recorded incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia tends to be lower in poorer communities. A ‘pre-emptive infection hypothesis’ proposes that some children with leukaemia die from infection without diagnosis of leukaemia. Various different blood abnormalities can occur in untreated leukaemia.

Methods:

Logistic regression was used to compare pre-treatment blood counts among children aged 1–13 years at recruitment to national clinical trials for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia during 1980–2002 (N=5601), grouped by address at diagnosis within Great Britain into quintiles of the 1991 Carstairs deprivation index. Children combining severe neutropenia (risk of serious infection) with relatively normal haemoglobin and platelet counts (lack of pallor and bleeding) were postulated to be at risk of dying from infection without leukaemia being suspected. A deficit of these children among diagnosed patients from poorer communities was predicted.

Results:

As predicted, there was a deficit of children at risk of non-diagnosis (two-sided P_trend=0.004; N=2009), and an excess of children with pallor (P_trend=0.045; N=5535) and bleeding (P_trend=0.036; N=5541), among cases from poorer communities.

Conclusion:

Under-diagnosis in poorer communities may have contributed to socioeconomic variation in recorded childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia incidence within Great Britain, and elsewhere. Implications for clinical practice and epidemiological studies should be considered.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006

We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27,447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980-2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36,793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother's residence at the child's birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (ERR) (95% CI 3, 22; two-sided P=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red bone marrow dose from gamma radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, ERR 3% (95% CI -4, 11; P=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high-dose rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high-dose rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.

Epidemiological studies of Fukushima residents exposed to ionising radiation from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant prefecture--a preliminary review of current plans

It is now more than six months since the beginning of the accident on 11 March 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. The Japanese government and local health authorities have started to collect the information necessary to estimate radiation doses received by those living in the area around the plant, drafted plans for the health care of residents, and started to implement some of them. This paper reviews and discusses the studies necessary for risk evaluation of cancer and non-cancer diseases, including those already planned, mainly from the view point of evaluating health risk using epidemiological approaches. In the long run, it is important to establish a cohort with a control group. Even if the cumulative doses are estimated to be so low that it is difficult to evaluate the risk of cancer and non-cancer diseases, it is necessary to conduct such a study to reassure residents. The health care programme of the Fukushima Prefecture government, including health check-ups of residents, will help to assess indirect effects of radiation exposure, including psychological problems. The success of any studies of radiation epidemiology depends on the collection of accurate information on radiation doses received by the study subjects. However, some of the dosimetry surveys were not conducted in a timely manner. (It should be recognised, though, that such a problem might have been inevitable, considering the chaotic condition after the nuclear accident.) Accurate estimation of the radiation dose received by each resident is not only important for scientific risk evaluation but also to inform each resident about his or her potential risk. Otherwise, residents will bear an undue psychological burden from uncertainties regarding their radiation exposure and its health consequences. One of other important tasks in Fukushima is the improvement of the quality of the regional cancer registry in this prefecture. It is also important to start thyroid cancer screening in a year or two since the expected minimum latent period among those exposed in early childhood is about 4 years. Recently, local health authorities decided to start a thyroid screening programme for those aged 18 years or younger. Any scientific efforts in Fukushima, which need to gain the trust of study subjects about the objectivity of research, may suffer from the fact that residents in Fukushima Prefecture have begun to suspect that the Japanese government and local authorities are keeping important information from them. It seems necessary to make more effort to reflect the opinions of residents when planning health care programmes and to gain the understanding of the public for the programme. In summary, there are many problems that make the evaluation of cancer and non-cancer disease risk in Fukushima difficult. The help of international colleagues will be invaluable for overcoming those problems. In this paper, these efforts are briefly summarised and some comments are made.

Childhood leukaemia and socioeconomic status in England and Wales 1976-2005: evidence of higher incidence in relatively affluent communities persists over time

BACKGROUND

Record-based studies have generally reported association of higher childhood leukaemia incidence with higher socioeconomic status (SES), but recent findings are less consistent.

METHODS

We examined records from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours for evidence of this association in England and Wales during 1976-2005. All eligible leukaemia registrations (N=11940) were grouped by year of diagnosis in decades centred on census years 1981, 1991 and 2001 (N=3748, 3922, 4270, respectively). Using data from the census appropriate to the decade, SES for each case was measured by the child-population-weighted quintile of the Carstairs deprivation index of the census ward containing the address at diagnosis.

RESULTS

In each decade, the age-standardised leukaemia rate in the poorest quintile was ∼90% of the rate in the most affluent. Using Poisson regression, the age-adjusted rate ratio per quintile decrease in SES was 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.94-0.98; P<0.001 for trend) in 1976-1985, 0.97 (0.95-0.99; P=0.008) in 1986-1995 and 0.97 (0.95-0.99; P=0.009) in 1996-2005. Similar association was evident for lymphoid leukaemia, the major subgroup (N=9588 in total), but not for acute myeloid (N=1868) or other/unspecified leukaemia (N=484).

CONCLUSION

Reported childhood leukaemia incidence in England and Wales continues to be higher in relatively affluent communities. Possible explanations include under-diagnosis of leukaemia in children from poorer communities, and/or association of higher SES with hypothesised risk factors, such as population mixing and delayed exposure to infection.

Risks from ionising radiation: an HPA viewpoint paper for Safegrounds

Safegrounds is a forum for developing and disseminating good practice guidance on the management of radioactively contaminated land on nuclear and defence sites in the UK. This review has been provided to Safegrounds as a summary of the basis for current radiation risk estimates and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) protection system, in a form that will be accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. Safegrounds has also received viewpoint papers from other members who contend that the ICRP methodology results in substantial underestimates of risk, particularly for internal emitters. There is an extensive literature on the risks of radiation exposure, regularly reviewed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) and other expert groups. These data provide a sound basis for the system of protection recommended by ICRP. The available epidemiological and experimental evidence supports the application of cancer risk estimates derived for acute, high dose, external exposures to low dose exposures to external and internal sources. In the context of radioactively contaminated land on nuclear and defence sites, the national standards for the cleaning up of land and for waste disposal correspond to very low doses, two orders of magnitude less than average annual doses in the UK from natural background radiation (10-20  µSv compared with 2-3 mSv). Risks at such very low doses can only be estimated on the basis of observations after exposure of population groups at much higher doses. The estimated risks at these very low doses, while uncertain, are as likely to be overestimates as underestimates.