A global map of hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations based on local patterns of viral circulation

Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation

Global seasonal influenza circulation involves a complex interplay between local (seasonality, demography, host immunity) and global factors (international mobility) shaping recurrent epidemic patterns. No studies so far have reconciled the two spatial levels, evaluating the coupling between national epidemics, considering heterogeneous coverage of epidemiological and virological data, integrating different data sources. We propose a novel combined approach based on a dynamical model of global influenza spread (GLEAM), integrating high-resolution demographic and mobility data, and a generalized linear model of phylogeographic diffusion that accounts for time-varying migration rates. Seasonal migration fluxes across global macro-regions simulated with GLEAM are tested as phylogeographic predictors to provide model validation and calibration based on genetic data. Seasonal fluxes obtained with a specific transmissibility peak time and recurrent travel outperformed the raw air-transportation predictor, previously considered as optimal indicator of global influenza migration. Influenza A subtypes supported autumn-winter reproductive number as high as 2.25 and an average immunity duration of 2 years. Similar dynamics were preferred by influenza B lineages, with a lower autumn-winter reproductive number. Comparing simulated epidemic profiles against FluNet data offered comparatively limited resolution power. The multiscale approach enables model selection yielding a novel computational framework for describing global influenza dynamics at different scales - local transmission and national epidemics vs. international coupling through mobility and imported cases. Our findings have important implications to improve preparedness against seasonal influenza epidemics. The approach can be generalized to other epidemic contexts, such as emerging disease outbreaks to improve the flexibility and predictive power of modeling.

Intensity and drivers of subtypes interference between seasonal influenza viruses in mainland China: A modeling study

Subtype interference has a significant impact on the epidemiological patterns of seasonal influenza viruses (SIVs). We used attributable risk percent [the absolute value of the ratio of the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) of different subtypes minus one] to quantify interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, as well as B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. The interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 was higher in southern China 0.26 (IQR: 0.11-0.46) than in northern China 0.17 (IQR: 0.07-0.24). Similarly, interference intensity between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata was also higher in southern China 0.14 (IQR: 0.07-0.24) than in norther China 0.10 (IQR: 0.04-0.18). High relative humidity significantly increased subtype interference, with the highest relative risk reaching 20.59 (95% CI: 6.12-69.33) in southern China. Southern China exhibited higher levels of subtype interference, particularly between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2. Higher relative humidity has a more pronounced promoting effect on subtype interference.

Comparing performance of year-round and campaign-mode influenza vaccination strategies among children aged 6-23 months in Kenya: 2019-2021

INTRODUCTION

In 2016, the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group requested additional programmatic and cost effectiveness data to inform the choice of strategy for a national influenza vaccination program among children aged 6-23 months of age. In response, we conducted an influenza vaccine demonstration project to compare the performance of a year-round versus campaign-mode vaccination strategy. Findings from this demonstration project will help identify essential learning lessons for a national program.

METHODS

We compared two vaccine delivery strategies: (i) a year-round vaccination strategy where influenza vaccines were administered throughout the year at health facilities. This strategy was implemented in Njoro sub-county in Nakuru (November 2019 to October 2021) and Jomvu sub-county in Mombasa (December 2019 to October 2021), (ii) a campaign-mode vaccination strategy where vaccines were available at health facilities over four months. This strategy was implemented in Nakuru North sub-county in Nakuru (June to September 2021) and Likoni sub-county in Mombasa (July to October 2021). We assessed differences in coverage, dropout rates, vaccine wastage, and operational needs.

RESULTS

We observed similar performance between strategies in coverage of the first dose of influenza vaccine (year-round strategy 59.7 %, campaign strategy 63.2 %). The coverage obtained in the year-round sub-counties was similar (Njoro 57.4 %; Jomvu 63.1 %); however, more marked differences between campaign sub-counties were observed (Nakuru North 73.4 %; Likoni 55.2 %). The campaign-mode strategy exceeded the cold chain capacity of participating health facilities, requiring thrice monthly instead of once monthly deliveries, and was associated with a two-fold increase in workload compared to the year-round strategy (168 vaccines administered per day in the campaign strategy versus 83 vaccines administered per day in the year-round strategy).

CONCLUSION

Although both strategies had similar coverage levels, the campaign-mode strategy was associated with considerable operational needs that could significantly impact the immunization program.

Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of influenza incidence and its nonlinear spatial correlation with environmental pollutants in China

BACKGROUND

Currently, the influenza epidemic in China is at a high level and mixed with other respiratory diseases. Current studies focus on regional influenza and the impact of environmental pollutants on time series, and lack of overall studies on the national influenza epidemic and the nonlinear correlation between environmental pollutants and influenza. The unclear spatial and temporal evolution patterns of influenza as well as the unclear correlation effect between environmental pollutants and influenza epidemic have greatly hindered the prevention and treatment of influenza epidemic by relevant departments, resulting in unnecessary economic and human losses.

METHOD

This study used Chinese influenza incidence data for 2007-2017 released by the China CDC and air pollutant site monitoring data. Seasonal as well as inter monthly differences in influenza incidence across 31 provinces of China have been clarified through time series. Space-Time Cube model (STC) was used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of influenza incidence in 315 Chinese cities during 2007-2017. Then, based on the spatial heterogeneity of influenza incidence in China, Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to identify the correlation effect of environmental pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, O3) and influenza incidence.

RESULT

The influenza incidence in China had obvious seasonal changes, with frequent outbreaks in winter and spring. The influenza incidence decreased significantly after March, with only sporadic outbreaks occurring in some areas. In the past 11 years, the influenza epidemic had gradually worsened, and the clustering of influenza had gradually expanded, which had become a serious public health problem. The correlation between environmental pollutants and influenza incidence was nonlinear. Generally, PM2.5, CO and NO2 were positively correlated at high concentrations, while PM10 and SO2 were negatively correlated. O3 was not strongly correlated with the influenza incidence.

CONCLUSION

The study found that the influenza epidemic in China was in a rapidly rising stage, and several regions had a multi-year outbreak trend and the hot spots continue to expand outward. The association between environmental pollutants and influenza incidence was nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous. Relevant departments should improve the monitoring of influenza epidemic, optimize the allocation of resources, reduce environmental pollution, and strengthen vaccination to effectively prevent the aggravation and spread of influenza epidemic in the high incidence season and areas.

Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010-19: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Using country-specific surveillance data to describe influenza epidemic activity could inform decisions on the timing of influenza vaccination. We analysed surveillance data from African countries to characterise the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics to inform national vaccination strategies.

METHODS

We used publicly available sentinel data from African countries reporting to the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response FluNet platform that had 3-10 years of data collected during 2010-19. We calculated a 3-week moving proportion of samples positive for influenza virus and assessed epidemic timing using an aggregate average method. The start and end of each epidemic were defined as the first week when the proportion of positive samples exceeded or went below the annual mean, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive weeks. We categorised countries into five epidemic patterns: northern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in October-March; southern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in April-September; primarily northern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in southern hemisphere months; primarily southern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in northern hemisphere months; and year-round influenza transmission without a discernible northern hemisphere or southern hemisphere predominance (no clear pattern).

FINDINGS

Of the 34 countries reporting data to FluNet, 25 had at least 3 years of data, representing 46% of the countries in Africa and 89% of Africa's population. Study countries reported RT-PCR respiratory virus results for a total of 503 609 specimens (median 12 971 [IQR 9607-20 960] per country-year), of which 74 001 (15%; median 2078 [IQR 1087-3008] per country-year) were positive for influenza viruses. 248 epidemics occurred across 236 country-years of data (median 10 [range 7-10] per country). Six (24%) countries had a northern hemisphere pattern (Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia). Eight (32%) had a primarily northern hemisphere pattern with some southern hemisphere epidemics (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Togo). Three (12%) had a primarily southern hemisphere pattern with some northern hemisphere epidemics (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda). Three (12%) had a southern hemisphere pattern (Central African Republic, South Africa, and Zambia). Five (20%) had no clear pattern (Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Rwanda).

INTERPRETATION

Most countries had identifiable influenza epidemic periods that could be used to inform authorities of non-seasonal and seasonal influenza activity, guide vaccine timing, and promote timely interventions.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Berber, Luganda, Xhosa, Chewa, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa and Afan Oromo translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

High Clinical Burden of Influenza Disease in Adults Aged ≥ 65 Years: Can We Do Better? A Systematic Literature Review

INTRODUCTION

Influenza is a respiratory infection associated with a significant clinical burden globally. Adults aged ≥ 65 years are at increased risk of severe influenza-related symptoms and complications due to chronic comorbidity and immunosenescence. Annual influenza vaccination is recommended; however, current influenza vaccines confer suboptimal protection, in part due to antigen mismatch and poor durability. This systematic literature review characterizes the global clinical burden of seasonal influenza among adults aged ≥ 65 years.

METHODS

An electronic database search was conducted and supplemented with a conference abstract search. Included studies described clinical outcomes in the ≥ 65 years population across several global regions and were published in English between January 1, 2012 and February 9, 2022.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine publications were included (accounting for > 156,198,287 total participants globally). Clinical burden was evident across regions, with most studies conducted in the USA and Europe. Risk of influenza-associated hospitalization increased with age, particularly in those aged ≥ 65 years living in long-term care facilities, with underlying comorbidities, and infected with A(H3N2) strains. Seasons dominated by circulating A(H3N2) strains saw increased risk of influenza-associated hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and mortality within the ≥ 65 years population. Seasonal differences in clinical burden were linked to differences in circulating strains.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza exerts a considerable burden on adults aged ≥ 65 years and healthcare systems, with high incidence of hospitalization and mortality. Substantial influenza-associated clinical burden persists despite increasing vaccination coverage among adults aged ≥ 65 years across regions included in this review, which suggests limited effectiveness of currently available seasonal influenza vaccines. To reduce influenza-associated clinical burden, influenza vaccine effectiveness must be improved. Next generation vaccine production using mRNA technology has demonstrated high effectiveness against another respiratory virus-SARS-CoV-2-and may overcome the practical limitations associated with traditional influenza vaccine production.

The global region-specific epidemiologic characteristics of influenza: World Health Organization FluNet data from 1996 to 2021

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate region-specific epidemiologic characteristics of influenza and influenza transmission zones (ITZs).

METHODS

Weekly influenza surveillance data of 156 countries from 1996 to 2021 were obtained using FluNet. Joinpoint regression was used to describe global influenza virus trends, and clustering analyses were used to classify the ITZs.

RESULTS

The global median average positive rate for total influenza virus was 16.19% (interquartile range: 11.62-25.70%). Overall, three major subtypes (influenza H1, H3, and B viruses) showed alternating epidemics. Notably, the proportion of influenza B viruses increased significantly from July 2020 to June 2021, reaching 62.66%. The primary peaks of influenza virus circulation in the north were earlier than those in the south. Global influenza virus circulation was significantly characterized by seven ITZs, including "Northern America" (primary peak: week 10), "Eastern & Southern-Asia" (primary peak: week 10), "Europe" (primary peak: week 11), "Asia-Europe" (primary peak: week 12), "Southern-America" (primary peak: week 30), "Oceania-Melanesia-Polynesia" (primary peak: week 39), and "Africa" (primary peak: week 46).

CONCLUSION

Global influenza virus circulation was significantly characterized by seven ITZs that could be applied to influenza surveillance and warning.

Evolution of Indian Influenza A (H1N1) Hemagglutinin Strains: A Comparative Analysis of the Pandemic Californian HA Strain

The need for a vaccine/inhibitor design has become inevitable concerning the emerging epidemic and pandemic viral infections, and the recent outbreak of the influenza A (H1N1) virus is one such example. From 2009 to 2018, India faced severe fatalities due to the outbreak of the influenza A (H1N1) virus. In this study, the potential features of reported Indian H1N1 strains are analyzed in comparison with their evolutionarily closest pandemic strain, A/California/04/2009. The focus is laid on one of its surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA), which imparts a significant role in attacking the host cell surface and its entry. The extensive analysis performed, in comparison with the A/California/04/2009 strain, revealed significant point mutations in all Indian strains reported from 2009 to 2018. Due to these mutations, all Indian strains disclosed altered features at the sequence and structural levels, which are further presumed to be associated with their functional diversity as well. The mutations observed with the 2018 HA sequence such as S91R, S181T, S200P, I312V, K319T, I419M, and E523D might improve the fitness of the virus in a new host and environment. The higher fitness and decreased sequence similarity of mutated strains may compromise therapeutic efficacy. In particular, the mutations observed commonly, such as serine-to-threonine, alanine-to-threonine, and lysine-to-glutamine at various regions, alter the physico-chemical features of receptor-binding domains, N-glycosylation, and epitope-binding sites when compared with the reference strain. Such mutations render diversity among all Indian strains, and the structural and functional characterization of these strains becomes inevitable. In this study, we observed that mutational drift results in the alteration of the receptor-binding domain, the generation of new variant N-glycosylation along with novel epitope-binding sites, and modifications at the structural level. Eventually, the pressing need to develop potentially distinct next-generation therapeutic inhibitors against the HA strains of the Indian influenza A (H1N1) virus is also highlighted here.

Spatial, temporal and evolutionary insight into seasonal epidemic Influenza A virus strains near the equatorial line: The case of Ecuador

To study the spatial and temporal patterns of Influenza A virus (IAV) is essential for an efficient control of the disease caused by IAV and efficient vaccination programs. However, spatiotemporal patterns of spread as well as genetic lineage circulation of IAV on a countrywide scale have not been clearly determined for many tropical regions of the world. In order to gain insight into these matters, the spatial and temporal patterns of IAV in six different geographic regions of Ecuador, from 2011 to 2021, were determined and the timing and magnitude of IAV outbreaks in these localities investigated. The results of these studies revealed that although Ecuador is a South American country situated in the Equator line, its IAV epidemiology resembles that of temperate Northern Hemisphere countries. Phylogenetic analysis of H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 IAV strains isolated in five different localities of Ecuador revealed that provinces in the south of this country have the largest effective population size by comparison with provinces in the north, suggesting that the southern provinces may be acting as a source of IAV. Co-circulation of different H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 genetic lineages was observed in different geographic regions of Ecuador.

Reverse transcription recombinase-aided amplification assay for avian influenza virus

Avian influenza virus (AIV) infection can lead to severe economic losses in the poultry industry and causes a serious risk for humans. A rapid and simple test for suspected viral infection cases is crucial. In this study, a reverse transcription recombinase-aided amplification assay (RT-RAA) for the rapid detection of all AIV subtypes was developed. The reaction temperature of the assays is at 39 °C and the detection process can be completed in less than 20 min. The specificity results of the assay showed that this method had no cross-reaction with other main respiratory viruses that affect birds, including Newcastle disease virus (NDV) and infectious bronchitis virus (IBV). The analytical sensitivity at a 95% confidence interval was 10² RNA copies per reaction. In comparison with a published assay for reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), the κ value of the RT-RAA assay in 384 avian clinical samples was 0.942 (p < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the RT-RAA assay for avian clinical sample detection was determined as 97.59% (95% CI 93.55-99.23%) and 96.79% (95% CI 93.22-98.59%), respectively. The RT-RAA assay for AIV in this study provided an effective and practicable tool for AIV molecular detection.

Clinical features and viral etiology of acute respiratory infection in an outpatient fever clinic during COVID-19 pandemic in a tertiary hospital in Nanjing, China

BACKGROUND

Clinical feature and viral etiology for acute respiratory infection (ARI) in the community was unknown during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

In a retrospective study, we aimed to characterize the clinical feature and etiology for the ARI patients admitted to the outpatient fever clinic in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital between November 2020 and March 2021.

METHODS

Fifteen common respiratory pathogens were tested using pharyngeal swabs by multiplex reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assays.

RESULTS

Of the 242 patients, 56 (23%) were tested positive for at least one viral agent. The predominant viruses included human rhinovirus (HRV) (5.4%), parainfluenza virus type III (PIV-III) (5.0%), and human coronavirus-NL63 (HCoV-NL63) (3.7%). Cough, sputum, nasal obstruction, and rhinorrhea were the most prevalent symptoms in patients with viral infection. Elderly and the patients with underlying diseases were susceptible to pneumonia accompanied with sputum and chest oppression. Three (5.4%) patients in virus infection group, whereas 31 (16.7%) in non-viral infection group (p = 0.033), were empirically prescribed with antiviral agents. Among 149 patients who received antibiotic therapy, 30 (20.1%) patients were later identified with viral infection.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicated the importance of accurate diagnosis of ARI, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, which might facilitate appropriate clinical treatment.

Global seasonal and pandemic patterns in influenza: An application of longitudinal study designs

The confluence of growing analytic capacities and global surveillance systems for seasonal infections has created new opportunities to further develop statistical methodology and advance the understanding of the global disease dynamics. We developed a framework to characterise the seasonality of infectious diseases for publicly available global health surveillance data. Specifically, we aimed to estimate the seasonal characteristics and their uncertainty using mixed effects models with harmonic components and the δ-method and develop multi-panel visualisations to present complex interplay of seasonal peaks across geographic locations. We compiled a set of 2 422 weekly time series of 14 reported outcomes for 173 Member States from the World Health Organization's (WHO) international influenza virological surveillance system, FluNet, from 02 January 1995 through 20 June 2021. We produced an analecta of data visualisations to describe global travelling waves of influenza while addressing issues of data completeness and credibility. Our results offer directions for further improvements in data collection, reporting, analysis and development of statistical methodology and predictive approaches.

Circulation and seasonality of influenza viruses in different transmission zones in Africa

Background

Influenza is responsible for more than 5 million severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths every year worldwide. Developing countries account for 99% of influenza deaths in children under 5 years of age. This paper aimed to determine the dynamics of influenza viruses in African transmission areas to identify regional seasonality for appropriate decision-making and the development of regional preparedness and response strategies.

Methods

We used data from the WHO FluMart website collected by National Influenza Centers for seven transmission periods (2013–2019). We calculated weekly proportions of positive influenza cases and determined transmission trends in African countries to determine the seasonality.

Results

From 2013 to 2019, influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009, A(H3N2), and A(H5N1) viruses, as well as influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages, circulated in African regions. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 and A(H3N2) highly circulated in northern and southern Africa regions. Influenza activity followed annual and regional variations. In the tropical zone, from eastern to western via the middle regions, influenza activities were marked by the predominance of influenza A subtypes despite the circulation of B lineages. One season was identified for both the southern and northern regions of Africa. In the eastern zone, four influenza seasons were differentiated, and three were differentiated in the western zone.

Conclusion

Circulation dynamics determined five intense influenza activity zones in Africa. In the tropics, influenza virus circulation waves move from the east to the west, while alternative seasons have been identified in northern and southern temperate zones. Health authorities from countries with the same transmission zone, even in the absence of local data based on an established surveillance system, should implement concerted preparedness and control activities, such as vaccination.

Etiologies of outpatient medically attended acute respiratory infections among young Ecuadorian children prior to the start of the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Implementation of respiratory virus prevention measures requires detailed understanding of regional epidemiology; however, data from many tropical countries are sparse. We describe etiologies of ambulatory pediatric acute respiratory tract infections (ARTI) in Ecuador immediately preceding the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

METHODS

Children < 5 years presenting to a designated study site with an ARTI were eligible. Informed consent was obtained. Demographic and clinical data were recorded. A nasopharyngeal swab was collected, processed, and analyzed using multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for common respiratory pathogens. Rhinovirus/enterovirus positive samples were further characterized by genomic sequencing.

RESULTS

A total of 820 subjects were enrolled in the study between July 2018 and March 2020. A total of 655 (80%) samples identified at least one pathogen. Rhinoviruses (44%) were most common, followed by enteroviruses (17%), parainfluenza viruses (17%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (15%), and influenza viruses (13%). Enterovirus D68 was the most common enterovirus detected and was among the leading causes of bronchiolitis. Seasonal RSV and influenza virus activity were different along the coast compared with the highlands.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing regional surveillance studies are necessary to optimize available and emerging pathogen-specific preventative measures.

Roles for Pathogen Interference in Influenza Vaccination, with Implications to Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and Attribution of Influenza Deaths

Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection. All the above are further complicated by malnutrition in children and the elderly. Influenza vaccination offers a measure of protection for elderly individuals subsequently infected with influenza. However, all vaccines induce both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects involve stimulation of humoral and cellular immunity, while the nonspecific effects are far more nuanced including changes in gene expression patterns and production of small RNAs which contribute to pathogen interference. Little is known about the outcomes of vaccinated elderly not subsequently infected with influenza but infected with multiple other non-influenza winter pathogens. In this review we propose that in certain years the specific antigen mix in the seasonal influenza vaccine inadvertently increases the risk of infection from other non-influenza pathogens. The possibility that vaccination could upset the pathogen balance, and that the timing of vaccination relative to the pathogen balance was critical to success, was proposed in 2010 but was seemingly ignored. Persons vaccinated early in the winter are more likely to experience higher pathogen interference. Implications to the estimation of vaccine effectiveness and influenza deaths are discussed.

Message in a bottle: mRNA vaccination for influenza

Current influenza vaccines, while being the best method of managing viral outbreaks, have several major drawbacks that prevent them from being wholly-effective. They need to be updated regularly and require extensive resources to develop. When considering alternatives, the recent deployment of mRNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 has created a unique opportunity to evaluate a new platform for seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines. The mRNA format has previously been examined for application to influenza and promising data suggest it may be a viable format for next-generation influenza vaccines. Here, we discuss the prospect of shifting global influenza vaccination efforts to an mRNA-based system that might allow better control over the product and immune responses and could aid in the development of a universal vaccine.

The Immunogenicity and Safety of Influenza Vaccines among Indonesian Older adult

BACKGROUND: Immunosenescence, frailty, sarcopenia, and Vitamin D deficiency were thought of having a negative influence on adequate immune response following vaccination. Epidemiological data related to influenza vaccination and its immunogenicity and safety in Indonesia are still scarce. AIM: This study aimed to assess the immunogenicity and safety of the influenza vaccine in older adults in Indonesia and common related conditions. METHODS: This study was a one-group, pre-test, post-test, quasi-experimental study. The vaccine used was a trivalent type. Immunogenicity was assessed according to rate of seropositivity and seroconversion based on hemagglutination inhibition antibody titer. Immunization safety was assessed according to adverse events following immunization (AEFI). RESULTS: A total of 227 subjects were involved in this study. Antibody titers were significantly increased after 28-day influenza vaccination for all strains (p < 0.001). Seropositive rate in 28-day post-vaccination for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and influenza B was 98.7%, 99.1%, and 97.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the seroconversion rate for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and influenza B strains was 54.2%, 66.1%, and 60.4%, respectively. The conditions of the frailty status, sarcopenia, and Vitamin D level were not associated with either seroconversion or seropositive status, both at baseline and endpoint. AEFI was occurred on seven subjects (3.08%) with pain at the injection site and one subject (0.44%) with arm tenderness. CONCLUSION: Influenza vaccination showed adequate immune response and safety regardless of the frailty status, sarcopenia, or Vitamin D level. This result strengthened the importance of influenza vaccine administration in Indonesia older adults.

Global patterns of seasonal influenza activity, duration of activity and virus (sub)type circulation from 2010 to 2020

Background

Seasonal influenza viruses undergo unpredictable changes, which may lead to antigenic mismatch between circulating and vaccine strains and to a reduced vaccine effectiveness. A continuously updated knowledge of influenza strain circulation and seasonality is essential to optimize the effectiveness of influenza vaccination campaigns. We described the global epidemiology of influenza between the 2009 A(H1N1)p and the 2020 COVID‐19 pandemic.

Methods

Influenza virological surveillance data were obtained from the WHO‐FluNet database. We determined the median proportion of influenza cases caused by the different influenza virus types, subtypes, and lineages; the typical timing of the epidemic peak; and the median duration of influenza epidemics (applying the annual average percentage method with a 75% threshold).

Results

We included over 4.6 million influenza cases from 149 countries. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by type A viruses was 75.5%, highest in the Southern hemisphere (81.6%) and lowest in the intertropical belt (73.0%), and ranged across seasons between 60.9% in 2017 and 88.7% in 2018. Epidemic peaks typically occurred during winter months in Northern and Southern hemisphere countries, while much more variability emerged in tropical countries. Influenza epidemics lasted a median of 25 weeks (range 8–42) in countries lying between 30°N and 26°S, and a median of 9 weeks (range 5–25) in countries outside this latitude range.

Conclusions

This work will establish an important baseline to better understand factors that influence seasonal influenza dynamics and how COVID‐19 may have affected seasonal activity and influenza virus types, subtypes, and lineages circulation patterns.

Attitudes, practices, and obstacles towards influenza vaccination for international travelers among travel health advisors in Germany: A questionnaire-based survey

BACKGROUND

Influenza is the most frequent vaccine-preventable infection in travelers, and both national and international guidelines recommend considering seasonal influenza vaccination (SIV) not only for those with risk factors for complications but for all travelers. However, vaccination coverage may be hampered by a lack of awareness among travelers and health care providers and limited vaccine availability outside the local influenza season.

METHODS

We identified travel health advisors in databases of German medical professional societies and invited them to complete an online questionnaire between April and May 2021.

RESULTS

Among 1085 travel health advisors contacted by email, 253 (23.3%) completed the online questionnaire. Most of them recommend SIV for travelers older than 60 years or those with comorbidities regardless of the travel destination or the influenza season in Germany. However, only very few respondents stated that they had regular access to SIV in June (n = 16, 6.5%), July (n = 10, 4.0%), and August (n = 17, 6.9%), respectively. While most participants (n = 197, 79.4%) stated that they would vaccinate more travelers if they had SIV regularly available outside the German influenza season, only eleven respondents (4.4%) have previously ordered SIV produced for the southern hemisphere, which was attributed mainly to logistic barriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Travel health advisors in Germany recommend SIV for a considerable proportion of travelers. While most of them see a necessity to vaccinate throughout the year, availability of SIV outside the German season is very limited. Current organizational barriers must be overcome to increase vaccination coverage among international travelers.

Feasibility of age- and gestation-based routine universal influenza vaccines schedules for children aged 6 months - 2 years and pregnant women

BACKGROUND

Hong Kong's seasonal influenza schedule follows the World Health Organization's northern hemisphere vaccine composition recommendations but with year-round influenza activity there is the potential to implement routine age- and gestation-based schedules utilising both northern and southern hemisphere vaccines for children aged 6 months to 2 years and for pregnant women. This study assessed the potential feasibility of such schedules.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted and in-depth interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses were undertaken.

RESULTS

The following schedules were proposed and assessed for perceived feasibility: 1) a four-dose schedule in the first two years of life requiring an additional unscheduled clinic visit at 7 months; 2) a three-dose schedule excluding the 4-week booster after the first dose; 3) a two-dose schedule for pregnant women involving a dose at the booking visit and a dose with pertussis vaccine at 7 months gestation; and 4) a one-dose schedule at 7 months gestation.

CONCLUSIONS

Age- and gestation-based routine influenza vaccination schedules are theoretically feasible for both young children and pregnant women. The three-dose paediatric and one-dose obstetric schedules were assessed in interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses to be most acceptable. Further clinical studies are required to determine whether such schedules are non-inferior to current seasonal-based schedules in terms of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine uptake.

Seasonal influenza vaccination policies in the 194 WHO Member States: The evolution of global influenza pandemic preparedness and the challenge of sustaining equitable vaccine access

Introduction

As of 2018, 118 of 194 WHO Member States reported the presence of an influenza vaccination policy. Although influenza vaccination policies do not guarantee equitable access or ensure vaccination coverage, they are critical to establishing a coordinated influenza vaccination program, which can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with yearly influenza, especially in high-risk groups. Established programs can also provide a good foundation for pandemic preparedness and response.

Methods

We utilized EXCEL and STATA to evaluate changes to national seasonal influenza vaccination policies reported on the WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Forms on Immunization (JRF) in 2014 and 2018. To characterize countries with or without policies, we incorporated external data on World Bank income groupings, WHO regions, and immunization system strength (using 3 proxy indicators).

Results

From 2014 to 2018 there was a small net increase in national seasonal influenza vaccination policies from 114 (59%) to 118 (61%). There was an increase in policies targeting high-risk groups from 34 in 2014 (34 /114 policies, 29%) to 56 (56/118 policies, 47%) in 2018. Policies were consistently more frequent in high-income countries, in WHO Regions of the Americas (89% of countries) and Europe (89%), and in countries satisfying all three immunization system strength indicators. Low and low-middle income countries, representing 40% of the worlds' population, accounted for 52/61 (85%) of countries with no evidence of a policy in either year.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate that national influenza vaccination policies vary significantly by region, income, and immunization system strength, and are less common in lower-income countries. Barriers to establishing and maintaining policies should be further examined as part of international efforts to expand influenza vaccination policies globally. Next generation influenza vaccine development should work to address barriers to influenza vaccination policy adoption, such as cost, logistics for adult vaccination, country priorities, need for yearly vaccination, and variations in seasonality.

Epidemiology and Seasonality of Childhood Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in the Tropics

Infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in young children worldwide. Understanding seasonal patterns of region-specific RSV activity is important to guide resource allocation for existing and future treatment and prevention strategies. The decades of excellent RSV surveillance data that are available from the developed countries of the world are incredibly instructive in advancing public health initiatives in those regions. With few exceptions, these developed nations are positioned geographically across temperate regions of the world. RSV surveillance across tropical regions of the world has improved in recent years, but remains spotty, and where available, still lacks the necessary longitudinal data to determine the amount of seasonal variation expected over time. However, existing and emerging data collected across tropical regions of the world do indicate that patterns of infection are often quite different from those so well described in temperate areas. Here, we provide a brief summary regarding what is known about general patterns of RSV disease activity across tropical Asia, Africa and South America, then offer additional country-specific details using examples where multiple reports and/or more robust surveillance data have become available.

Plasmodium falciparum-specific IgM B cells dominate in children, expand with malaria, and produce functional IgM

IgG antibodies play a role in malaria immunity, but whether and how IgM protects from malaria and the biology of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf)–specific IgM B cells is unclear. In a Mali cohort spanning infants to adults, we conducted longitudinal analyses of Pf- and influenza-specific B cells. We found that Pf-specific memory B cells (MBCs) are disproportionally IgM⁺ and only gradually shift to IgG⁺ with age, in contrast to influenza-specific MBCs that are predominantly IgG⁺ from infancy to adulthood. B cell receptor analysis showed Pf-specific IgM MBCs are somatically hypermutated at levels comparable to influenza-specific IgG B cells. During acute malaria, Pf-specific IgM B cells expand and upregulate activation/costimulatory markers. Finally, plasma IgM was comparable to IgG in inhibiting Pf growth and enhancing phagocytosis of Pf by monocytes in vitro. Thus, somatically hypermutated Pf-specific IgM MBCs dominate in children, expand and activate during malaria, and produce IgM that inhibits Pf through neutralization and opsonic phagocytosis.

Characterizing genetic and antigenic divergence from vaccine strain of influenza A and B viruses circulating in Thailand, 2017-2020

We monitored the circulating strains and genetic variation among seasonal influenza A and B viruses in Thailand between July 2017 and March 2020. The hemagglutinin gene was amplified and sequenced. We identified amino acid (AA) changes and computed antigenic relatedness using the P_epitope model. Phylogenetic analyses revealed multiple clades/subclades of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) were circulating simultaneously and evolved away from their vaccine strain, but not the influenza B virus. The predominant circulating strains of A(H1N1)pdm09 belonged to 6B.1A1 (2017-2018) and 6B.1A5 (2019-2020) with additional AA substitutions. Clade 3C.2a1b and 3C.2a2 viruses co-circulated in A(H3N2) and clade 3C.3a virus was found in 2020. The B/Victoria-like lineage predominated since 2019 with an additional three AA deletions. Antigenic drift was dominantly facilitated at epitopes Sa and Sb of A(H1N1)pdm09, epitopes A, B, D and E of A(H3N2), and the 120 loop and 190 helix of influenza B virus. Moderate computed antigenic relatedness was observed in A(H1N1)pdm09. The computed antigenic relatedness of A(H3N2) indicated a significant decline in 2019 (9.17%) and 2020 (- 18.94%) whereas the circulating influenza B virus was antigenically similar (94.81%) with its vaccine strain. Our findings offer insights into the genetic divergence from vaccine strains, which could aid vaccine updating.

Characterization of humoral and cellular immune features of gamma-irradiated influenza vaccine

The most widely used influenza vaccines are prepared by chemical inactivation. However, chemical, especially formalin, treatment-induced modifications of the antigenic structure of the virus are frequently associated with adverse effects including low efficacy of protection, unexpected immune responses, or exacerbation of disease. Gamma-irradiation was suggested as an alternative influenza virus inactivation method due to its great features of completely inactivating virus while not damaging the structures of protein antigens, and cross-protective ability against heterologous strains. However, immunological features of gamma radiation-inactivated influenza vaccine have not been fully understood. In this study, we aimed to investigate the humoral and cellular immune responses of gamma radiation-inactivated influenza vaccine. The gamma irradiation-inactivated influenza vaccine (RADVAX_FluA) showed complete viral inactivation but retained normal viral structure with functional activities of viral protein antigens. Intranasal immunization of RADVAX_FluA provided better protection against influenza virus infection than formalin-inactivated influenza virus (FIV) in mice. RADVAX_FluA greatly enhanced the production of virus-specific serum IgG and alveolar mucosal IgA, which effectively neutralized HA (hemagglutinin) and NA (neuraminidase) activities, and blocked viral binding to the cells, respectively. Further analysis of IgG subclasses showed RADVAX_FluA-immunized sera had higher levels of IgG1 and IgG2a than those of FIV-immunized sera. In addition, analysis of cellular immunity found RADVAX_FluA induced strong dendritic cells (DC) activation resulting in higher DC-mediated activation of CD8⁺ T cells than FIV. The results support improved immunogenicity by RADVAX_FluA.

On the influenza vaccination policy through mathematical modeling

OBJECTIVES

Aimed at mitigating influenza transmission, this study assessed the timing of the vaccination program and took vaccine capacity, strain mismatch and priority group into consideration.

METHODS

An age-structured dynamic transmission model was fitted to the laboratory data of the national influenza surveillance system to reconstruct a baseline scenario with which the vaccination scenarios of interest could be compared. Outcome measures were defined as the impacts on the seasonal epidemic: decompression of the epidemic peak, reduction of the epidemic burden and change of the epidemic peak time.

RESULTS

It was found that vaccine capacity building, although indispensable, could not guarantee substantial impact on the seasonal influenza epidemic. Vaccine mismatch might greatly offset vaccine capacity building. Notably, advance vaccine distribution could compensate for some vaccine underperformance. In the case of a well-matched vaccine, advance vaccine distribution could even exploit its utility.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that timely vaccine distribution should be put high on the agenda of seasonal influenza control policies. It provided a tangible platform for the policymakers to evaluate health policy impacts and to enhance risk communication with the public through mathematical modeling.

Global patterns in monthly activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus are the most common viruses associated with acute lower respiratory infections in young children (<5 years) and older people (≥65 years). A global report of the monthly activity of these viruses is needed to inform public health strategies and programmes for their control.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis, we compiled data from a systematic literature review of studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2017; online datasets; and unpublished research data. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported laboratory-confirmed incidence data of human infection of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, or metapneumovirus, or a combination of these, for at least 12 consecutive months (or 52 weeks equivalent); stable testing practice throughout all years reported; virus results among residents in well-defined geographical locations; and aggregated virus results at least on a monthly basis. Data were extracted through a three-stage process, from which we calculated monthly annual average percentage (AAP) as the relative strength of virus activity. We defined duration of epidemics as the minimum number of months to account for 75% of annual positive samples, with each component month defined as an epidemic month. Furthermore, we modelled monthly AAP of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus using site-specific temperature and relative humidity for the prediction of local average epidemic months. We also predicted global epidemic months of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus on a 5° by 5° grid. The systematic review in this study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091628.

FINDINGS

We initally identified 37 335 eligible studies. Of 21 065 studies remaining after exclusion of duplicates, 1081 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 185 were identified as eligible. We included 246 sites for influenza virus, 183 sites for respiratory syncytial virus, 83 sites for parainfluenza virus, and 65 sites for metapneumovirus. Influenza virus had clear seasonal epidemics in winter months in most temperate sites but timing of epidemics was more variable and less seasonal with decreasing distance from the equator. Unlike influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus had clear seasonal epidemics in both temperate and tropical regions, starting in late summer months in the tropics of each hemisphere, reaching most temperate sites in winter months. In most temperate sites, influenza virus epidemics occurred later than respiratory syncytial virus (by 0·3 months [95% CI -0·3 to 0·9]) while no clear temporal order was observed in the tropics. Parainfluenza virus epidemics were found mostly in spring and early summer months in each hemisphere. Metapneumovirus epidemics occurred in late winter and spring in most temperate sites but the timing of epidemics was more diverse in the tropics. Influenza virus epidemics had shorter duration (3·8 months [3·6 to 4·0]) in temperate sites and longer duration (5·2 months [4·9 to 5·5]) in the tropics. Duration of epidemics was similar across all sites for respiratory syncytial virus (4·6 months [4·3 to 4·8]), as it was for metapneumovirus (4·8 months [4·4 to 5·1]). By comparison, parainfluenza virus had longer duration of epidemics (6·3 months [6·0 to 6·7]). Our model had good predictability in the average epidemic months of influenza virus in temperate regions and respiratory syncytial virus in both temperate and tropical regions. Through leave-one-out cross validation, the overall prediction error in the onset of epidemics was within 1 month (influenza virus -0·2 months [-0·6 to 0·1]; respiratory syncytial virus 0·1 months [-0·2 to 0·4]).

INTERPRETATION

This study is the first to provide global representations of month-by-month activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus. Our model is helpful in predicting the local onset month of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics. The seasonality information has important implications for health services planning, the timing of respiratory syncytial virus passive prophylaxis, and the strategy of influenza virus and future respiratory syncytial virus vaccination.

FUNDING

European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

Environmental Conditioning and Aerosol Infection of Mice

Influenza infection models in mice are widely used to study flu-mediated immune responses and pathology. However, most laboratory mice are housed at 20 °C and 50% relative humidity (RH). To better recapitulate influenza epidemics and immune responses during winter seasons, mice were housed at 20 °C under different humidity conditions, 10-20% or 50% RH. Here, we describe a protocol for using aerosolized droplets to infect mice with influenza under different environmental conditions. Using this method enables influenza infection studies performed under more physiologically relevant conditions which better mimics human viral exposure.

Global dynamic spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza since 2009 influenza pandemic

Background

Understanding the global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza is essential for influenza control and prevention. Available data on the updated global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza are scarce. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic.

Methods

Weekly influenza surveillance data in 86 countries from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from FluNet. First, the proportion of influenza A in total influenza viruses (P_A) was calculated. Second, weekly numbers of influenza positive virus (A and B) were divided by the total number of samples processed to get weekly positive rates of influenza A (RW_A) and influenza B (RW_B). Third, the average positive rates of influenza A (R_A) and influenza B (R_B) for each country were calculated by averaging RW_A, and RW_B of 52 weeks. A Kruskal-Wallis test was conducted to examine if the year-to-year change in P_A in all countries were significant, and a universal kriging method with linear semivariogram model was used to extrapolate R_A and R_B in all countries.

Results

P_A ranged from 0.43 in Zambia to 0.98 in Belarus, and P_A in countries with higher income was greater than those countries with lower income. The spatial patterns of high R_B were the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia-Pacific region and South America. RW_A peaked in early weeks in temperate countries, and the peak of RW_B occurred a bit later. There were some temperate countries with non-distinct influenza seasonality (e.g., Mauritius and Maldives) and some tropical/subtropical countries with distinct influenza seasonality (e.g., Chile and South Africa).

Conclusions

Influenza seasonality is not predictable in some temperate countries, and it is distinct in Chile, Argentina and South Africa, implying that the optimal timing for influenza vaccination needs to be chosen with caution in these unpredictable countries.

Clinical practice guidelines 2019: Indian consensus-based recommendations on influenza vaccination in adults

Influenza, a common cause of acute respiratory infections, is an important health problem worldwide, including in India. Influenza is associated with several complications; people with comorbidities and the elderly are at a higher risk for such complications. Moreover, the influenza virus constantly changes genetically, thereby worsening therapeutic outcomes. Vaccination is an effective measure for the prevention of influenza. Despite the availability of global guidelines on influenza vaccination in adults, country-specific guidelines based on regional variation in disease burden are required for better disease management in India. With this aim, the Indian Chest Society and National College of Chest Physicians of India jointly conducted an expert meeting in January 2019. The discussion was aimed at delineating evidence-based recommendations on adult influenza vaccination in India. The present article discusses expert recommendations on clinical practice guidelines to be followed in India for adult influenza vaccination, for better management of the disease burden.

Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries

To identify countries that have seasonal patterns similar to the time series of influenza surveillance data in the United States and other countries, and to forecast the 2018-2019 seasonal influenza outbreak in the U.S., we collected the surveillance data of 164 countries using the FluNet database, search queries from Google Trends, and temperature from 2010 to 2018. Data for influenza-like illness (ILI) in the U.S. were collected from the Fluview database. We identified the time lag between two time-series which were weekly surveillances for ILI, total influenza (Total INF), influenza A (INF A), and influenza B (INF B) viruses between two countries using cross-correlation analysis. In order to forecast ILI, Total INF, INF A, and INF B of next season (after 26 weeks) in the U.S., we developed prediction models using linear regression, auto regressive integrated moving average, and an artificial neural network (ANN). As a result of cross-correlation analysis between the countries located in northern and southern hemisphere, the seasonal influenza patterns in Australia and Chile showed a high correlation with those of the U.S. 22 weeks and 28 weeks earlier, respectively. The R2 score of ANN models for ILI for validation set in 2015-2019 was 0.758 despite how hard it is to forecast 26 weeks ahead. Our prediction models forecast that the ILI for the U.S. in 2018-2019 may be later and less severe than those in 2017-2018, judging from the influenza activity for Australia and Chile in 2018. It allows to estimate peak timing, peak intensity, and type-specific influenza activities for next season at 40th week. The correlation between seasonal influenza patterns in the U.S., Australia, and Chile could be used to forecast the next seasonal influenza pattern, which can help to determine influenza vaccine strategy approximately six months ahead in the U.S.

Diversity and distribution of type A influenza viruses: an updated panorama analysis based on protein sequences

Background

Type A influenza viruses (IAVs) cause significant infections in humans and multiple species of animals including pigs, horses, birds, dogs and some marine animals. They are of complicated phylogenetic diversity and distribution, and analysis of their phylogenetic diversity and distribution from a panorama view has not been updated for multiple years.

Methods

139,872 protein sequences of IAVs from GenBank were selected, and they were aligned and phylogenetically analyzed using the software tool MEGA 7.0. Lineages and subordinate lineages were classified according to the topology of the phylogenetic trees and the host, temporal and spatial distribution of the viruses, and designated using a novel universal nomenclature system.

Results

Large phylogenetic trees of the two external viral genes (HA and NA) and six internal genes (PB2, PB1, PA, NP, MP and NS) were constructed, and the diversity and the host, temporal and spatial distribution of these genes were calculated and statistically analyzed. Various features regarding the diversity and distribution of IAVs were confirmed, revised or added through this study, as compared with previous reports. Lineages and subordinate lineages were classified and designated for each of the genes based on the updated panorama views.

Conclusions

The panorama views of phylogenetic diversity and distribution of IAVs and their nomenclature system were updated and assumed to be of significance for studies and communication of IAVs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12985-019-1188-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection

Influenza virus causes seasonal outbreaks in temperate regions, with an increase in disease and mortality in the winter months. Dry air combined with cold temperature is known to enable viral transmission. In this study, we asked whether humidity impacts the host response to influenza virus infections. Exposure of mice to low humidity conditions rendered them more susceptible to influenza disease. Mice housed in dry air had impaired mucociliary clearance, innate antiviral defense, and tissue repair function. Moreover, mice exposed to dry air were more susceptible to disease mediated by inflammasome caspases. Our study provides mechanistic insights for the seasonality of the influenza virus epidemics, whereby inhalation of dry air compromises the host’s ability to restrict influenza virus infection.

In the temperate regions, seasonal influenza virus outbreaks correlate closely with decreases in humidity. While low ambient humidity is known to enhance viral transmission, its impact on host response to influenza virus infection and disease outcome remains unclear. Here, we showed that housing Mx1 congenic mice in low relative humidity makes mice more susceptible to severe disease following respiratory challenge with influenza A virus. We find that inhalation of dry air impairs mucociliary clearance, innate antiviral defense, and tissue repair. Moreover, disease exacerbated by low relative humidity was ameliorated in caspase-1/11–deficient Mx1 mice, independent of viral burden. Single-cell RNA sequencing revealed that induction of IFN-stimulated genes in response to viral infection was diminished in multiple cell types in the lung of mice housed in low humidity condition. These results indicate that exposure to dry air impairs host defense against influenza infection, reduces tissue repair, and inflicts caspase-dependent disease pathology.

CD4 T cells in protection from influenza virus: Viral antigen specificity and functional potential

CD4 T cells convey a number of discrete functions to protective immunity to influenza, a complexity that distinguishes this arm of adaptive immunity from B cells and CD8 T cells. Although the most well recognized function of CD4 T cells is provision of help for antibody production, CD4 T cells are important in many aspects of protective immunity. Our studies have revealed that viral antigen specificity is a key determinant of CD4 T cell function, as illustrated both by mouse models of infection and human vaccine responses, a factor whose importance is due at least in part to events in viral antigen handling. We discuss research that has provided insight into the diverse viral epitope specificity of CD4 T cells elicited after infection, how this primary response is modified as CD4 T cells home to the lung, establish memory, and after challenge with a secondary and distinct influenza virus strain. Our studies in human subjects point out the challenges facing vaccine efforts to facilitate responses to novel and avian strains of influenza, as well as strategies that enhance the ability of CD4 T cells to promote protective antibody responses to both seasonal and potentially pandemic strains of influenza.

Fogarty International Center collaborative networks in infectious disease modeling: Lessons learnt in research and capacity building

Due to a combination of ecological, political, and demographic factors, the emergence of novel pathogens has been increasingly observed in animals and humans in recent decades. Enhancing global capacity to study and interpret infectious disease surveillance data, and to develop data-driven computational models to guide policy, represents one of the most cost-effective, and yet overlooked, ways to prepare for the next pandemic. Epidemiological and behavioral data from recent pandemics and historic scourges have provided rich opportunities for validation of computational models, while new sequencing technologies and the 'big data' revolution present new tools for studying the epidemiology of outbreaks in real time. For the past two decades, the Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies (DIEPS) of the NIH Fogarty International Center has spearheaded two synergistic programs to better understand and devise control strategies for global infectious disease threats. The Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study (MISMS) has strengthened global capacity to study the epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses in 80 countries by organizing international research activities and training workshops. The Research and Policy in Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program and its precursor activities has established a network of global experts in infectious disease modeling operating at the research-policy interface, with collaborators in 78 countries. These activities have provided evidence-based recommendations for disease control, including during large-scale outbreaks of pandemic influenza, Ebola and Zika virus. Together, these programs have coordinated international collaborative networks to advance the study of emerging disease threats and the field of computational epidemic modeling. A global community of researchers and policy-makers have used the tools and trainings developed by these programs to interpret infectious disease patterns in their countries, understand modeling concepts, and inform control policies. Here we reflect on the scientific achievements and lessons learnt from these programs (h-index = 106 for RAPIDD and 79 for MISMS), including the identification of outstanding researchers and fellows; funding flexibility for timely research workshops and working groups (particularly relative to more traditional investigator-based grant programs); emphasis on group activities such as large-scale modeling reviews, model comparisons, forecasting challenges and special journal issues; strong quality control with a light touch on outputs; and prominence of training, data-sharing, and joint publications.

A phase III, open-label, single-arm, study to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of a trivalent, surface antigen inactivated subunit influenza virus vaccine produced in mammalian cell culture (Optaflu®) in healthy adults

Vaccination is an essential tool in reducing the impact of seasonal influenza infections. The viral strains responsible for seasonal outbreaks vary annually, and preventive vaccines have to be adapted accordingly. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety, clinical tolerability and the antibody response to each of the three influenza vaccine antigens after vaccination with a cell-derived, trivalent, surface antigen, inactivated influenza vaccine (TIVc), as measured by single radial haemolysis (SRH) or haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay in accordance with European Union licensing guidelines in place for years 2013/2014. This phase 3, open-label, single-arm study enrolled 126 healthy adults divided into two age groups (63 subjects aged 18 to ≤ 60 years and 63 subjects aged ≥ 61 years). Antibody titres were measured before and 21 days after vaccination. Adverse events were determined using diary cards, interviews and reviews of the available medical records. One subject was lost to follow-up and three subjects had protocol deviations. Following vaccination, protective HI antibody titres (≥ 1:40) were detected in 100%, 97%, and 94% of the younger adults (18-≤ 60 years) and in 97%, 95%, and 80% of the older adults (≥ 61 years) against the A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B influenza strains respectively. The antibody response licensing criteria were met in both age groups. Solicited adverse events were reported by 57% subjects 18 to ≤ 60 years and 35% subjects ≥ 61 years. Among the younger adults 51% had local and 27% had systemic adverse events, whereas of the older subjects 29% had local and 13% had systemic adverse events (mainly injection site pain or headache in both age groups). Unsolicited adverse events at least possibly related to the vaccine were mild and detected in 3% of the younger adults and none of the older adults. Overall, the trivalent, surface antigen, inactivated subunit influenza virus vaccine produced in mammalian cell culture proved to be safe and immunogenic in younger and older healthy adults.

Both hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations would have missed near half of the circulating viruses in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Influenza immunization still poses a critical challenge globally and specifically for tropical regions due to their complex influenza circulation pattern. Tropical regions should select the WHO's Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere recommended vaccine composition based on local surveillance. Analyses of influenza immunization effectiveness have neglected to account for the proportion of circulating viruses prevented from causing infection each year. We investigate this question for Madagascar, where influenza vaccines are not widely available.

METHODS

Seventy-eight Malagasy influenza strains characterized from 2002 to 2014 were challenged with hypothetical scenarios in which the WHO's Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere recommended vaccine compositions were provided to the population. Match between circulating and vaccine strains was determined by haemagglutination inhibition assays. Strain-specific positive matches were scored assuming 9 months of protection, and scenarios incorporated vaccine delays from zero to 5 months.

RESULTS

Malagasy influenza strains matched 54% and 44%, respectively, with the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere recommended vaccine strains when the vaccine was delivered as soon as available. The matching values further decreased when additional delivery and application delays were considered. Differences between recommended compositions were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed matching with the Northern Hemisphere vaccine barely above 50%, even in the more favourable scenario. This suggests that if implemented, routine influenza vaccines would not provide an optimal protection against half of the influenza strains circulating in any epidemic season of Madagascar. We suggest that this limitation in influenza vaccine efficacy deserves greater attention, and should be considered in cost/benefit analyses of national influenza immunization programmes.

Analysis of multi-level spatial data reveals strong synchrony in seasonal influenza epidemics across Norway, Sweden, and Denmark

Population structure, spatial diffusion, and climatic conditions mediate the spatiotemporal spread of seasonal influenza in temperate regions. However, much of our knowledge of these dynamics stems from a few well-studied countries, such as the United States (US), and the extent to which this applies in different demographic and climatic environments is not fully understood. Using novel data from Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, we applied wavelet analysis and non-parametric spatial statistics to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza transmission at regional and international scales. We found the timing and amplitude of epidemics were highly synchronized both within and between countries, despite the geographical isolation of many areas in our study. Within Norway, this synchrony was most strongly modulated by population size, confirming previous findings that hierarchical spread between larger populations underlies seasonal influenza dynamics at regional levels. However, we found no such association when comparing across countries, suggesting that other factors become important at the international scale. Finally, to frame our results within a wider global context, we compared our findings from Norway to those from the US. After correcting for differences in geographic scale, we unexpectedly found higher levels of synchrony in Norway, despite its smaller population size. We hypothesize that this greater synchrony may be driven by more favorable and spatially uniform climatic conditions, although there are other likely factors we were unable to consider (such as reduced variation in school term times and differences in population movements). Overall, our results highlight the importance of comparing influenza spread at different spatial scales and across diverse geographic regions in order to better understand the complex mechanisms underlying disease dynamics.

Epidemiology of seasonal influenza in the Middle East and North Africa regions, 2010-2016: Circulating influenza A and B viruses and spatial timing of epidemics

BACKGROUND

There is a limited knowledge regarding the epidemiology of influenza in Middle East and North Africa.

OBJECTIVES

We described the patterns of influenza circulation and the timing of seasonal epidemics in countries of Middle East and North Africa.

METHODS

We used virological surveillance data for 2010-2016 from the WHO FluNet database. In each country, we calculated the median proportion of cases that were caused by each virus type and subtype; determined the timing and amplitude of the primary and secondary peaks; and used linear regression models to test for spatial trends in the timing of epidemics.

RESULTS

We included 70 532 influenza cases from seventeen countries. Influenza A and B accounted for a median 76.5% and 23.5% of cases in a season and were the dominant type in 86.8% and 13.2% of seasons. The proportion of influenza A cases that were subtyped was 85.9%, while only 4.4% of influenza B cases were characterized. For most countries, influenza seasonality was similar to the Northern Hemisphere, with a single large peak between January and March; exceptions were the countries in the Arabian Peninsula and Jordan, all of which showed clear secondary peaks, and some countries had an earlier primary peak (in November-December in Bahrain and Qatar). The direction of the timing of influenza activity was east to west and south to north in 2012-2013 and 2015-2016, and west to east in 2014-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiology of influenza is generally uniform in countries of Middle East and North Africa, with influenza B playing an important role in the seasonal disease burden.

The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza A and B in the WHO European Region: can one define influenza transmission zones in Europe?

We aimed to assess the epidemiology and spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region and evaluate the validity of partitioning the Region into five influenza transmission zones (ITZs) as proposed by the WHO. We used the FluNet database and included over 650,000 influenza cases from 2000 to 2015. We analysed the data by country and season (from July to the following June). We calculated the median proportion of cases caused by each virus type in a season, compared the timing of the primary peak between countries and used a range of cluster analysis methods to assess the degree of overlap between the WHO-defined and data-driven ITZs. Influenza A and B caused, respectively, a median of 83% and 17% cases in a season. There was a significant west-to-east and non-significant (p = 0.10) south-to-north gradient in the timing of influenza activity. Typically, influenza peaked in February and March; influenza A earlier than influenza B. Most countries in the WHO European Region would fit into two ITZs: ‘Western Europe’ and ‘Eastern Europe’; countries bordering Asia may be better placed into extra-European ITZs. Our findings have implications for the presentation of surveillance data and prevention and control measures in this large WHO Region.

Global Influenza Hospital-based Surveillance Network (GIHSN): results of surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in hospitalised patients in Brazil, 2015

BACKGROUND

Influenza-like illness occurs annually worldwide, with peak timing and severity varying seasonally, resulting in significant annual mortality.

OBJECTIVES

There were three objectives: (1) to describe the epidemiological and clinical features of hospitalised patients with severe acute respiratory infection caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses (ORVs); (2) to report the influenza seasonality in the region and (3) to correlate findings of influenza circulation and immunisation time in Brazil.

PATIENTS/METHODS

This study took place in three Brazilian hospitals located in cities with different climatic conditions (Curitiba (south), Rio de Janeiro (south-east) and Fortaleza (north-east)). Patients presenting with an acute process with indication for admission consisting of a predefined set of conditions potentially associated with recent influenza infection were enrolled.

RESULTS

We screened 1666 patients, with 595 meeting the inclusion criteria. Influenza viruses and ORVs were detected in 6.5% and 59% of patients, respectively. Influenza-positive cases fell into the severe spectrum as compared with those with ORVs (30% vs 11%), but without any difference in mortality rates. Epidemiological results revealed variations in the peak time of influenza infections between north-east (Fortaleza) and south (Curitiba) Brazil, basically following the rain period of each region. In north-east Brazil, viral circulation was prevalent in the first 4 months of the year, indicating that the vaccination campaign occurred in a postseasonal period, possibly explaining the low effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

The active-surveillance model is a valuable tool for investigating respiratory virus impact on hospitalised patients, with influenza-infection monitoring enabling implementation of adequate preventive measures.

Parental perceptions of childhood seasonal influenza vaccination in Singapore: A cross-sectional survey

PURPOSE

Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended in children aged 6-59months, but little is known about child vaccination coverage and determinants in Asian settings. We report the results of a survey of knowledge, attitudes, practices, and determinants of child influenza vaccination in Singapore.

METHODS

In December 2015-March 2016, we conducted a survey of 332 parents of children aged 6months to 5years attending pre-schools. We assessed child influenza vaccine coverage and parental knowledge, attitudes, and practices of child influenza vaccination. We used multivariable regression and structural equation models to identify factors associated with child influenza vaccination.

RESULTS

Knowledge about influenza, perceived benefit of vaccination, and willingness to vaccinate were high. However, only 32% of children had ever received influenza vaccine, and only 15% in the past year. Factors independently associated with child influenza vaccination included: being recommended influenza vaccine by a child's doctor (prevalence ratio (PR)=2.47, 95% CI: 1.75-3.48); receiving influenza vaccine information from a private general practitioner (PR=1.47, 95% CI: 1.05-2.04); regularly receiving pre-travel influenza vaccine (PR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.19-2.25); higher willingness to vaccinate (PR=1.58, 95% CI:1.24-2.04 per unit increase in willingness score); and feeling well-informed about influenza vaccine (PR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.04-1.99). Parents who obtained influenza vaccine information from television were less likely to have vaccinated their child (PR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.23-0.85). Path analysis indicated that being recommended vaccination by a child's doctor increased willingness to vaccinate and self-efficacy (feeling well-informed about influenza vaccine). Median willingness-to-pay for a dose of influenza vaccine was SGD30 (interquartile range: SGD20-SGD50), and was higher in parents of vaccinated compared with unvaccinated children (SGD45vs SGD30, p=0.0012).

CONCLUSION

Knowledge and willingness to vaccinate was high in this parent population, but influenza vaccine uptake in children was low. Encouraging medical professionals to recommend vaccination of eligible children is key to improving uptake.

Influenza seasonality goes south in the Yucatan Peninsula: The case for a different influenza vaccine calendar in this Mexican region

INTRODUCTION

While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness.

METHODS

We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule.

FINDINGS

The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered.

CONCLUSION

The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the Yucatan Peninsula.

Burden and Seasonality of Viral Acute Respiratory Tract Infections among Outpatients in Southern Sri Lanka

In tropical and subtropical settings, the epidemiology of viral acute respiratory tract infections varies widely between countries. We determined the etiology, seasonality, and clinical presentation of viral acute respiratory tract infections among outpatients in southern Sri Lanka. From March 2013 to January 2015, we enrolled outpatients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI). Nasal/nasopharyngeal samples were tested in duplicate using antigen-based rapid influenza testing and multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for respiratory viruses. Monthly proportion positive was calculated for each virus. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify associations between sociodemographic/clinical information and viral detection. Of 571 subjects, most (470, 82.3%) were ≥ 5 years of age and 53.1% were male. A respiratory virus was detected by PCR in 63.6% (N = 363). Common viral etiologies included influenza (223, 39%), human enterovirus/rhinovirus (HEV/HRV, 14.5%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 4.2%), and human metapneumovirus (hMPV, 3.9%). Both ILI and influenza showed clear seasonal variation, with peaks from March to June each year. RSV and hMPV activity peaked from May to July, whereas HEV/HRV was seen year-round. Patients with respiratory viruses detected were more likely to report pain with breathing (odds ratio [OR] = 2.60, P = 0.003), anorexia (OR = 2.29, P < 0.001), and fatigue (OR = 2.00, P = 0.002) compared with patients with no respiratory viruses detected. ILI showed clear seasonal variation in southern Sri Lanka, with most activity during March to June; peak activity was largely due to influenza. Targeted infection prevention activities such as influenza vaccination in January-February may have a large public health impact in this region.

Year-round influenza immunisation during pregnancy in Nepal: a phase 4, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Influenza immunisation during pregnancy is recommended but not widely implemented in some low-income regions. We assessed the safety and efficacy in mothers and infants of year-round maternal influenza immunisation in Nepal, where influenza viruses circulate throughout the year.

METHODS

In this phase 4, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we enrolled two consecutive sequential annual cohorts of pregnant women from the Sarlahi district in southern Nepal. We randomised mothers 1:1 to receive seasonally recommended trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine or saline placebo in blocks of eight, stratified by gestational age at enrolment (17-25 weeks vs 26-34 weeks). Women were eligible if they were married, 15-40 years of age, 17-34 weeks' gestation at enrolment, and had not previously received any influenza vaccine that season. We collected serum samples before and after immunisation, and cord blood from a subset of women and infants. Staff masked to allocation made home visits every week from enrolment to 6 months after delivery. Midnasal swabs for respiratory virus PCR testing were collected during maternal acute febrile respiratory infections, and from infants with any respiratory symptom. We assessed vaccine immunogenicity, safety, and three primary outcomes: the incidence of maternal influenza-like illness in pregnancy and 0-180 days postpartum, the incidence of low birthweight (<2500 g), and the incidence of laboratory-confirmed infant influenza disease from 0 to 180 days. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01034254.

FINDINGS

From April 25, 2011, to Sept 9, 2013, we enrolled 3693 women in two cohorts of 2090 (1041 assigned to placebo and 1049 to vaccine) and 1603 (805 assigned to placebo and 798 to vaccine), with 3646 liveborn infants (cohort 1, 999 in placebo group and 1010 in vaccine group; cohort 2, 805 in placebo group and 798 in vaccine group). Immunisation reduced maternal febrile influenza-like illness with an overall efficacy of 19% (95% CI 1 to 34) in the combined cohorts; 9% efficacy (-16 to 29) in the first cohort, and 36% efficacy (9 to 55) in the second cohort. For laboratory-confirmed influenza infections in infants aged 0-6 months, immunisation had an overall efficacy for the combined cohorts of 30% (95% CI 5 to 48); in the first cohort, the efficacy was 16% (-19 to 41), and in the second cohort it was 60% (26 to 88). Maternal immunisation reduced the rates of low birthweight by 15% (95% CI 3-25) in both cohorts combined. The rate of small for gestational age infants was not modified by immunisation. The number of adverse events was similar regardless of immunisation status. Miscarriage occurred in three (0·2%) participants in the placebo group versus five (0·3%) in the vaccine group, stillbirth occurred in 31 (1·7%) versus 33 (1·8%), and congenital defects occurred in 18 (1·0%) versus 20 (1·1%). Five women died in the placebo group and three died in the vaccine group. The number of infant deaths at age 0-6 months was similar in each group (50 in the placebo group and 61 in the vaccine group). No serious adverse events were associated with receipt of immunisation.

INTERPRETATION

Year-round maternal influenza immunisation significantly reduced maternal influenza-like illness, influenza in infants, and low birthweight over the entire course of the study, indicating the strategy could be useful in subtropical regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza in the Asia-Pacific region: Findings and recommendations from the Global Influenza Initiative

The fourth roundtable meeting of the Global Influenza Initiative (GII) was held in Hong Kong, China, in July 2015. An objective of this meeting was to gain a broader understanding of the epidemiology, surveillance, vaccination policies and programs, and obstacles to vaccination of influenza in the Asia-Pacific region through presentations of data from Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. As well as a need for improved levels of surveillance in some areas, a range of factors were identified that act as barriers to vaccination in some countries, including differences in climate and geography, logistical challenges, funding, lack of vaccine awareness and education, safety concerns, perceived lack of vaccine effectiveness, and lack of inclusion in national guidelines. From the presentations at the meeting, the GII discussed a number of recommendations for easing the burden of influenza and overcoming the current challenges in the Asia-Pacific region. These recommendations encompass the need to improve surveillance and availability of epidemiological data; the development and publication of national guidelines, where not currently available and/or that are in line with those proposed by the World Health Organization; the requirement for optimal timing of vaccination programs according to local or country-specific epidemiology; and calls for advocacy and government support of vaccination programs in order to improve availability and uptake and coverage. In conclusion, in addition to the varied epidemiology of seasonal influenza across this diverse region, there are a number of logistical and resourcing issues that present a challenge to the development of optimally effective vaccination strategies and that need to be overcome to improve access to and uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines. The GII has developed a number of recommendations to address these challenges and improve the control of influenza.

Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012

INTRODUCTION

The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.

RESULTS

At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.