Setting temporal baselines for biodiversity: the limits of available monitoring data for capturing the full impact of anthropogenic pressures

FAIR-EuMon: a FAIR-enabling resource for biodiversity monitoring schemes

Background

Within the scope of the Helmholtz Metadata Collaboration (HMC), the ADVANCE project - Advanced metadata standards for biodiversity survey and monitoring data: supporting of research and conservation - aimed at supporting rich metadata generation with interoperable metadata standards and semantic artefacts that facilitate data access, integration and reuse across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms. HMC's mission is to facilitate the discovery, access, machine-readability, and reuse of research data across and beyond the Helmholtz Association.

New information

We revised, adapted and expanded existing metadata schemas, vocabularies and thesauri to build a FAIR metadata schema and a metadata entry form built on it for users to provide their metadata instances focused on biodiversity monitoring data. The schema is FAIR because it is both machine-interpretable and follows domain-relevant community standards. This report provides a general overview of the project results and instructions on how to access, re-use and complete the metadata form.

The contribution of community-based conservation models to conserving large herbivore populations

In East Africa, community-based conservation models (CBCMs) have been established to support the conservation of wildlife in fragmented landscapes like the Tarangire Ecosystem, Tanzania. To assess how different management approaches maintained large herbivore populations, we conducted line distance surveys and estimated seasonal densities of elephant, giraffe, zebra, and wildebeest in six management units, including three CBCMs, two national parks (positive controls), and one area with little conservation interventions (negative control). Using a Monte-Carlo approach to propagate uncertainties from the density estimates and trend analysis, we analyzed the resulting time series (2011-2019). Densities of the target species were consistently low in the site with little conservation interventions. In contrast, densities of zebra and wildebeest in CBCMs were similar to national parks, providing evidence that CBCMs contributed to the stabilization of these migratory populations in the central part of the ecosystem. CBCMs also supported giraffe and elephant densities similar to those found in national parks. In contrast, the functional connectivity of Lake Manyara National Park has not been augmented by CBCMs. Our analysis suggests that CBCMs can effectively conserve large herbivores, and that maintaining connectivity through CBCMs should be prioritized.

Population assessment of the Endangered Kashmir Gray Langur (Semnopithecus ajax, Pocock 1928) using the double-observer method

Primates are among the most threatened taxa globally, therefore, there is a need to estimate and monitor their populations. Kashmir Gray Langur Semnopithecus ajax is an endangered species for which there is no population estimate. We used double-observer method to estimate its population size in the Kashmir region of North-Western Himalaya. We walked 1284 km across 31 survey blocks spanning all three divisions of Kashmir viz., North, Central, and South Kashmir, covering an area of 411 km2. We counted a minimum of 1367 individual langurs from 27 groups. The detection probability for observer 1 (0.719) and observer 2 (0.656) resulted in a population estimate of 1496 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1367-1899) across 30 groups (with a mean group size of 51), giving a density estimate of 3.64 (3.33-4.62) langurs/km². We found double-observer surveys to be suitable for the population estimation of langurs, and we make recommendations on how to effectively conduct primate surveys, especially in mountainous ecosystems. Our records extend the species distribution range beyond stated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Our findings also highlight that the Kashmir Himalaya is a stronghold of the species, where conservation efforts should focus.

Citizen science initiatives document biodiversity baselines at an urban lake

Changes to biodiversity from urbanization are occurring worldwide, and baseline data is vital to document the magnitude and direction of these alterations. We set out to document the biodiversity of an urban lake in Eastern Iowa that was devoid of baseline data prior to a renovation project that will convert the site into a major area for human recreation. Throughout the course of one year, we studied the biodiversity at Cedar Lake utilizing the citizen-science application iNaturalist coupled with semi-structured BioBlitz events, which we compared to previous opportunistic observations at the site. From a semi-structured approach to document biodiversity with citizen science, our analyses revealed more diverse community metrics over a shorter period compared to more than a decade of prior observations.

An integrative approach to assess the impact of disturbance on native fish in lakes

Freshwater fish are in a perilous state with more than 30% of species considered critically endangered. Yet significant ecological and methodological complexities constrain our ability to determine how disturbances are impacting native fish communities. We review current methods used to assess the responses of fish communities, especially native fish, to disturbances, with a focus on lakes. These methods include contemporary population surveys, manipulative experimental approaches, paleolimnological approaches and Indigenous Knowledge and social histories. We identify knowledge gaps, such as a lack of baseline data for native fish, an inability to assess the impact of historical disturbances, stressor response dynamics in contemporary multi-stressor environments, and natural disturbance regimes. Our assessment of the current methods highlights challenges to filling these knowledge gaps using the reviewed methods. We advocate strongly for the implementation of an integrative approach that combines emerging technologies (i.e. molecular-based techniques in contemporary surveys and paleolimnology) and underutilised knowledge streams (i.e. Indigenous Knowledge and social histories) which should be used in concert with conventional methods. This integrative approach will allow researchers to determine the key drivers of decline and the degree of change, which will enable more informed and successful management actions.

Amphibian diversity across three adjacent ecosystems in Área de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Amphibians are the most threatened species-rich vertebrate group, with species extinctions and population declines occurring globally, even in protected and seemingly pristine habitats. These 'enigmatic declines' are generated by climate change and infectious diseases. However, the consequences of these declines are undocumented as no baseline ecological data exists for most affected areas. Like other neotropical countries, Costa Rica, including Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) in north-western Costa Rica, experienced rapid amphibian population declines and apparent extinctions during the past three decades. To delineate amphibian diversity patterns within ACG, a large-scale comparison of multiple sites and habitats was conducted. Distance and time constrained visual encounter surveys characterised species richness at five sites-Murciélago (dry forest), Santa Rosa (dry forest), Maritza (mid-elevation dry-rain forest intersect), San Gerardo (rainforest) and Cacao (cloud forest). Furthermore, species-richness patterns for Cacao were compared with historic data from 1987-8, before amphibians declined in the area. Rainforests had the highest species richness, with triple the species of their dry forest counterparts. A decline of 45% (20 to 11 species) in amphibian species richness was encountered when comparing historic and contemporary data for Cacao. Conservation efforts sometimes focus on increasing the resilience of protected areas, by increasing their range of ecosystems. In this sense ACG is unique containing many tropical ecosystems compressed in a small geographic space, all protected and recognised as a UNESCO world heritage site. It thus provides an extraordinary platform to understand changes, past and present, and the resilience of tropical ecosystems and assemblages, or lack thereof, to climate change.

A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change

The causes of biodiversity change are of great scientific interest and central to policy efforts aimed at meeting biodiversity targets. Changes in species diversity and high rates of compositional turnover have been reported worldwide. In many cases, trends in biodiversity are detected, but these trends are rarely causally attributed to possible drivers. A formal framework and guidelines for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change is needed. We propose an inferential framework to guide detection and attribution analyses, which identifies five steps-causal modelling, observation, estimation, detection and attribution-for robust attribution. This workflow provides evidence of biodiversity change in relation to hypothesized impacts of multiple potential drivers and can eliminate putative drivers from contention. The framework encourages a formal and reproducible statement of confidence about the role of drivers after robust methods for trend detection and attribution have been deployed. Confidence in trend attribution requires that data and analyses used in all steps of the framework follow best practices reducing uncertainty at each step. We illustrate these steps with examples. This framework could strengthen the bridge between biodiversity science and policy and support effective actions to halt biodiversity loss and the impacts this has on ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

An update on the conservation status of Tibetan Argali Ovis ammon hodgsoni (Mammalia: Bovidae) in India

Mountain ungulates are important for alpine ecosystem ecology, yet are understudied, particularly in Asia. Tibetan Argali Ovis ammon hodgsoni occurs across Tibet, with Trans-Himalayan India forming the edge of its distribution. We studied their conservation status in India. We compiled published data and secondary information about the occurrence of argali. We then focused on Ladakh, the remaining stronghold of argali in India. Based on literature from Ladakh and after consulting key-informants, we delimited two major populations of argali and estimate population density and demography using the double-observer method. We found 27 studies on argali in India. Studies covered four major themes: records (n = 12), conservation (n = 7), ecology (n = 7), and evolution (n = 1), with studies increasing after 2000. Estimated argali density in Tsaba was 0.34 argali km-2 (0.32–0.40)  and in Chushul-Mirpal Tso was 0.15 argali km-2 (0.12–0.30). Both populations had comparable demography including age-sex ratios. We need to urgently consider argali as a priority species for conservation in India particularly as threats—including transboundary concerns, lack of coordinated conservation across the international border, anthropogenic disturbances, competition & disturbance from livestock grazing, and habitat loss—are a reality. Towards that, we delimited knowledge gaps and set robust population baselines for the two important argali populations in India. As the Tibetan Argali here co-occur with people, it will be crucial to ensure conservation is done in partnership with local communities. 

Drone-assisted collection of environmental DNA from tree branches for biodiversity monitoring

The protection and restoration of the biosphere is crucial for human resilience and well-being, but the scarcity of data on the status and distribution of biodiversity puts these efforts at risk. DNA released into the environment by organisms, i.e., environmental DNA (eDNA), can be used to monitor biodiversity in a scalable manner if equipped with the appropriate tool. However, the collection of eDNA in terrestrial environments remains a challenge because of the many potential surfaces and sources that need to be surveyed and their limited accessibility. Here, we propose to survey biodiversity by sampling eDNA on the outer branches of tree canopies with an aerial robot. The drone combines a force-sensing cage with a haptic-based control strategy to establish and maintain contact with the upper surface of the branches. Surface eDNA is then collected using an adhesive surface integrated in the cage of the drone. We show that the drone can autonomously land on a variety of branches with stiffnesses between 1 and 10³ newton/meter without prior knowledge of their structural stiffness and with robustness to linear and angular misalignments. Validation in the natural environment demonstrates that our method is successful in detecting animal species, including arthropods and vertebrates. Combining robotics with eDNA sampling from a variety of unreachable aboveground substrates can offer a solution for broad-scale monitoring of biodiversity.

The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change has been the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide. Direct exploitation of natural resources ranks second and pollution third; climate change and invasive alien species have been significantly less important than the top two drivers. The oceans, where direct exploitation and climate change dominate, have a different driver hierarchy from land and fresh water. It also varies among types of biodiversity indicators. For example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Stopping global biodiversity loss requires policies and actions to tackle all the major drivers and their interactions, not some of them in isolation.

Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates

Biodiversity is heavily influenced by ongoing climate change, which often results in species undergoing range shifts, either poleward or uphill. Range shifts can occur provided suitable habitats exist within reach. However, poleward latitudinal shifts might be limited by additional abiotic or biotic constraints, such as increased seasonality, photoperiod patterns, and species interactions. To gain insight into the dynamics of insect range shifts at high latitudes, we constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) for 57 Odonata species occurring in northern Europe. We used citizen science data from Sweden and present-day climatic variables covering a latitudinal range of 1,575 km. Then, to measure changes in range and interactions among Odonata species, we projected the ENMs up to the year 2080. We also estimated potential changes in species interactions using niche overlap and co-occurrence patterns. We found that most Odonata species are predicted to expand their range northward. The average latitudinal shift is expected to reach 1.83 and 3.25 km y-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by 2061-2080. While the most warm-dwelling species may increase their range, our results indicate that cold-dwelling species will experience range contractions. The present-day niche overlap patterns among species will remain largely the same in the future. However, our results predict changes in co-occurrence patterns, with many species pairs showing increased co-occurrence, while others will no longer co-occur because of the range contractions. In sum, our ENM results suggest that species assemblages of Odonata-and perhaps insects in general-in northern latitudes will experience great compositional changes.

No species loss, but pronounced species turnover in grasslands in the Northern Alps over 25 years

The abandonment of marginally productive habitats and the intensification of land use on productive sites have caused transformative changes in vegetation composition in Central Europe. In this study, after 25 years we resurveyed a total of 145 grassland relevés from the mid-1990s in a grassland-dominated valley of the Northern Alps of Upper Austria. We studied changes in richness and composition, and related these to underlying drivers. We found that the average species number in plots increased from 46 in the first survey period to 49 in the second one. Median species richness across sites significantly increased from 1995 to 2020 for Festuco-Brometea (55-61 species) and Galio-Urticetea (24-32 species), but did not show any significant change for the other classes. Further, we recorded substantial species turnover, with winners consisting mostly of species that prefer nutrient-rich sites, while losers were predominantly species of nutrient-poor sites. In particular, using Ellenberg Indicator Values for calculating community indices, we found an indication for ongoing eutrophication in vegetation types of nutrient-poor vegetation classes (Festuco-Brometea and Calluno-Ulicetea), and in wet habitats (Scheuchzerio-Caricetea fuscae). Community indices of wet habitats also showed clear signs of becoming more mesic. Thermophilization of community indices was evident across several vegetation classes. Further, alien species that were very rare in the mid-1990s became more abundant in the resurveyed plots, although the level of invasion is still low. Finally, community values for nutrients of plots that are located in a protected area that has been established in 2014 did not increase significantly, while this was the case in plots outside the protected area, indicating that the management of the protected area has positive effects in halting eutrophication. We conclude that despite overall species richness changing only moderately between both surveys, substantial changes in community composition toward more nitrophilic and thermophilic conditions occurred.

A comprehensive but practical methodology for selecting biological indicators for long-term monitoring

The selection of the many biological indicators described in scientific literature is rarely based on systematic or clear-cut processes, and often takes into account only a single or very few taxa, or even disregards the complex interactions that exist between the components of biodiversity. In certain cases, the particular context of a site–for example in the Mediterranean Basin–makes it difficult to apply the choice of indicators to other regions proposed in the literature. Therefore, the selection of appropriate methodologies for generating relevant indicators for a particular site is of crucial importance. Here, we present a simple quantitative methodology capable of incorporating multidisciplinary information for assessing and selecting appropriate methods and indicators for monitoring local biodiversity. The methodology combines several ecological levels (species, habitats, processes, and ecosystem disturbances), and embraces biological interactions and common functional guilds (detritivores, producers, herbivores, and carnivores). We followed an iterative selection procedure consisting of five phases: 1) collection focal area useful information; 2) classification of this information into interrelated datasets; 3) assessment and selection of the relevant components using a quantitative relevance index; 4) the adding of taxonomic, physiognomic and functional similarities to the relevant components; and 5) the quantitative selection of the priority indicators in the study area. To demonstrate the potential of this methodology, we took as a case study the biodiversity components and their ecological interactions present in a protected area. We show that our methodology can help select appropriate local and long-term indicators, reduce the number of components required for thorough biodiversity monitoring, and underline the importance of ecological processes.

Italian Vascular Flora: New Findings, Updates and Exploration of Floristic Similarities between Regions

The tradition of floristic studies in Italy has made it possible to obtain a good knowledge of plant diversity both on a national and regional scale. However, the lack of knowledge for some areas, advances in plant systematics and human activities related to globalization, highlight the need for further studies aimed at improving floristic knowledge. In this paper, based on fieldwork and herbaria and literature surveys, we update the knowledge on the Italian vascular flora and analyze the floristic similarities between the administrative regions. Four taxa, all exotic, were recorded for the first time in Italy and Europe. In detail, Elaeodendron croceum, Kalanchoë blossfeldiana, and Sedum spathulifolium var. spathulifolium were found as casual aliens, while Oxalis brasiliensis was reported as historical record based on some herbarium specimens. Furthermore, Kalanchoë laxiflora was confirmed as a casual alien species for Italy and Europe. Status changes for some taxa were proposed at both national and regional levels, as well as many taxa were reported as new or confirmed at the regional level. Currently the Italian vascular flora comprises 9150 taxa of which 7547 are native (of which 1598 are Italian endemics) and 1603 are exotic at the national level. The multivariate analysis of updated floristic data on a regional scale showed a clear distribution along the latitudinal gradient, in accordance with the natural geographical location of the regions in Italy. This pattern of plants distribution was not affected by the introduction of alien species. Despite some taxonomic and methodological issues which are still open, the data obtained confirm the important role of floristic investigations in the field and in herbaria, as well as the collaborative approach among botanists, in order to improve the knowledge of the Italian and European vascular flora.

Inventory of the benthic eukaryotic diversity in the oldest European lake

We have profound knowledge on biodiversity on Earth including plants and animals. In the recent decade, we have also increased our understanding on microorganisms in different hosts and the environment. However, biodiversity is not equally well studied among different biodiversity groups and Earth's systems with eukaryotes in freshwater sediments being among the least known. In this study, we used high-throughput sequencing of the 18S rRNA gene to investigate the entire diversity of benthic eukaryotes in three distinct habitats (littoral sediment and hard substrate, profundal sediment) of Lake Ohrid, the oldest European lake. Eukaryotic sequences were dominated by annelid and arthropod animals (54% of all eukaryotic reads) and protists (Ochrophyta and Ciliophora; together 40% of all reads). Eukaryotic diversity was 15% higher in the deep profundal than on either near-surface hard substrates or littoral sediments. The three habitats differed in their taxonomic and functional community composition. Specifically, heterotrophic organisms accounted for 92% of the reads in the profundal, whereas phototrophs accounted for 43% on the littoral hard substrate. The profundal community was the most homogeneous, and its network was the most complex, suggesting its highest stability among the sampled habitats.

Charting a course for genetic diversity in the UN Decade of Ocean Science

The health of the world's oceans is intrinsically linked to the biodiversity of the ecosystems they sustain. The importance of protecting and maintaining ocean biodiversity has been affirmed through the setting of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 to conserve and sustainably use the ocean for society's continuing needs. The decade beginning 2021-2030 has additionally been declared as the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. This program aims to maximize the benefits of ocean science to the management, conservation, and sustainable development of the marine environment by facilitating communication and cooperation at the science-policy interface. A central principle of the program is the conservation of species and ecosystem components of biodiversity. However, a significant omission from the draft version of the Decade of Ocean Science Implementation Plan is the acknowledgment of the importance of monitoring and maintaining genetic biodiversity within species. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of genetic diversity to adaptive capacity, evolutionary potential, community function, and resilience within populations, as well as highlighting some of the major threats to genetic diversity in the marine environment from direct human impacts and the effects of global climate change. We then highlight the significance of ocean genetic diversity to a diverse range of socioeconomic factors in the marine environment, including marine industries, welfare and leisure pursuits, coastal communities, and wider society. Genetic biodiversity in the ocean, and its monitoring and maintenance, is then discussed with respect to its integral role in the successful realization of the 2030 vision for the Decade of Ocean Science. Finally, we suggest how ocean genetic diversity might be better integrated into biodiversity management practices through the continued interaction between environmental managers and scientists, as well as through key leverage points in industry requirements for Blue Capital financing and social responsibility.

Historical Landscape Use of Migratory Caribou: New Insights From Old Antlers

Accumulations of shed caribou antlers (Rangifer tarandus) are valuable resources for expanding the temporal scope with which we evaluate seasonal landscape use of herds. Female caribou shed their antlers within days of giving birth, thus marking calving ground locations. Antler geochemistry (87Sr/86Sr) reflects the isotopic signature of regions used during antler growth, thereby providing data on a second component of seasonal landscape use. Here, we evaluate shed caribou antlers from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. The Central and Eastern regions of the Coastal Plain are calving grounds for the Porcupine Caribou Herd, while the Western Coastal Plain supports calving by the Central Arctic Herd. We found that antler 87Sr/86Sr from the Central and Eastern Coastal Plain were isotopically indistinguishable, while antler 87Sr/86Sr from the Western Coastal Plain was significantly smaller. For each region, we compared isotopic data for “recent” antlers, which overlap the bulk of standardized state and federal caribou monitoring (early 1980s and younger), with “historical” antlers shed in years predating these records (from the 1300s to the 1970s). For Porcupine Herd females calving in the Arctic Refuge, comparisons of antler 87Sr/86Sr through time indicate that summer ranges have been consistent since at least the 1960s. However, changes between historical and recent antler 87Sr/86Sr for the Central Arctic Herd indicate a shift in summer landscape use after the late 1970s. The timing of this shift is coincident with multiple factors including increased infrastructural development in their range related to hydrocarbon extraction. Accumulations of shed caribou antlers and their isotope geochemistry extend modern datasets by decades to centuries and provide valuable baseline data for evaluating potential anthropogenic and other influences on caribou migration and landscape use.

The eighth plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES-8): online, nexus, and transformative change

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services held its 8th plenary session online in June 2021, during which a new budget was approved up to 2023, continuing work plans were agreed, and scoping documents for two new assessments, the nexus and transformative change assessments, were accepted.

Linking 19th century European settlement to the disruption of a seabird's natural population dynamics

Recent estimates indicate that ∼70% of the world's seabird populations have declined since the 1950s due to human activities. However, for almost all bird populations, there is insufficient long-term monitoring to understand baseline (i.e., preindustrial) conditions, which are required to distinguish natural versus anthropogenically driven changes. Here, we address this lack of long-term monitoring data with multiproxy paleolimnological approaches to examine the long-term population dynamics of a major colony of Leach's Storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous) on Grand Colombier Island in the St. Pierre and Miquelon archipelago-an overseas French territory in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. By reconstructing the last ∼5,800 y of storm-petrel dynamics, we demonstrate that this colony underwent substantial natural fluctuations until the start of the 19th century, when population cycles were disrupted, coinciding with the establishment and expansion of a European settlement. Our paleoenvironmental data, coupled with on-the-ground population surveys, indicate that the current colony is only ∼16% of the potential carrying capacity, reinforcing concerning trends of globally declining seabird populations. As seabirds are sentinel species of marine ecosystem health, such declines provide a call to action for global conservation. In response, we emphasize the need for enlarged protected areas and the rehabilitation of disturbed islands to protect ecologically critical seabird populations. Furthermore, long-term data, such as those provided by paleoecological approaches, are required to better understand shifting baselines in conservation to truly recognize current rates of ecological loss.

Reference state and benchmark concepts for better biodiversity conservation in contemporary ecosystems

Measuring the status and trends of biodiversity is critical for making informed decisions about the conservation, management or restoration of species, habitats and ecosystems. Defining the reference state against which status and change are measured is essential. Typically, reference states describe historical conditions, yet historical conditions are challenging to quantify, may be difficult to falsify, and may no longer be an attainable target in a contemporary ecosystem. We have constructed a conceptual framework to help inform thinking and discussion around the philosophical underpinnings of reference states and guide their application. We characterize currently recognized historical reference states and describe them as Pre-Human, Indigenous Cultural, Pre-Intensification and Hybrid-Historical. We extend the conceptual framework to include contemporary reference states as an alternative theoretical perspective. The contemporary reference state framework is a major conceptual shift that focuses on current ecological patterns and identifies areas with higher biodiversity values relative to other locations within the same ecosystem, regardless of the disturbance history. We acknowledge that past processes play an essential role in driving contemporary patterns of diversity. The specific context for which we design the contemporary conceptual frame is underpinned by an overarching goal-to maximize biodiversity conservation and restoration outcomes in existing ecosystems. The contemporary reference state framework can account for the inherent differences in the diversity of biodiversity values (e.g. native species richness, habitat complexity) across spatial scales, communities and ecosystems. In contrast to historical reference states, contemporary references states are measurable and falsifiable. This 'road map of reference states' offers perspective needed to define and assess the status and trends in biodiversity and habitats. We demonstrate the contemporary reference state concept with an example from south-eastern Australia. Our framework provides a tractable way for policy-makers and practitioners to navigate biodiversity assessments to maximize conservation and restoration outcomes in contemporary ecosystems.

Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends

The Earth’s biota is changing over time in complex ways. A critical challenge is to test whether specific biomes, taxa or types of species benefit or suffer in a time of accelerating global change. We analysed nearly 10,000 abundance time series from over 2000 vertebrate species part of the Living Planet Database. We integrated abundance data with information on geographic range, habitat preference, taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships, and IUCN Red List Categories and threats. We find that 15% of populations declined, 18% increased, and 67% showed no net changes over time. Against a backdrop of no biogeographic and phylogenetic patterning in population change, we uncover a distinct taxonomic signal. Amphibians were the only taxa that experienced net declines in the analysed data, while birds, mammals and reptiles experienced net increases. Population trends were poorly captured by species’ rarity and global-scale threats. Incorporation of the full spectrum of population change will improve conservation efforts to protect global biodiversity.

Conservation biologists often assume that rare (or less abundant) species are more likely to be declining under anthropogenic change. Here, the authors synthesise population trend data for ~2000 animal species to show that population trends cover a wide spectrum of change from losses to gains, which are not related to species rarity.

Long-term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case-study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long-term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect-based long-term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik-dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17-year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross-species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17-year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti-poaching efforts, spatio-temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long-term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.

Landscape-scale forest loss as a catalyst of population and biodiversity change

Global biodiversity assessments have highlighted land-use change as a key driver of biodiversity change. However, there is little empirical evidence of how habitat transformations such as forest loss and gain are reshaping biodiversity over time. We quantified how change in forest cover has influenced temporal shifts in populations and ecological assemblages from 6090 globally distributed time series across six taxonomic groups. We found that local-scale increases and decreases in abundance, species richness, and temporal species replacement (turnover) were intensified by as much as 48% after forest loss. Temporal lags in population- and assemblage-level shifts after forest loss extended up to 50 years and increased with species' generation time. Our findings that forest loss catalyzes population and biodiversity change emphasize the complex biotic consequences of land-use change.

Complex long-term biodiversity change among invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens

Large-scale biodiversity changes are measured mainly through the responses of a few taxonomic groups. Much less is known about the trends affecting most invertebrates and other neglected taxa, and it is unclear whether well-studied taxa, such as vertebrates, reflect changes in wider biodiversity. Here, we present and analyse trends in the UK distributions of over 5,000 species of invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens, measured as changes in occupancy. Our results reveal substantial variation in the magnitude, direction and timing of changes over the last 45 years. Just one of the four major groups analysed, terrestrial non-insect invertebrates, exhibits the declining trend reported among vertebrates and butterflies. Both terrestrial insects and the bryophytes and lichens group increased in average occupancy. A striking pattern is found among freshwater species, which have undergone a strong recovery since the mid-1990s after two decades of decline. We show that, while average occupancy among most groups appears to have been stable or increasing, there has been substantial change in the relative commonness and rarity of individual species, indicating considerable turnover in community composition. Additionally, large numbers of species have experienced substantial declines. Our results suggest a more complex pattern of biodiversity change in the United Kingdom than previously reported.

Community-based wildlife management area supports similar mammal species richness and densities compared to a national park

Community-based conservation models have been widely implemented across Africa to improve wildlife conservation and livelihoods of rural communities. In Tanzania, communities can set aside land and formally register it as Wildlife Management Area (WMA), which allows them to generate revenue via consumptive or nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife. The key, yet often untested, assumption of this model is that economic benefits accrued from wildlife motivate sustainable management of wildlife. To test the ecological effectiveness (here defined as persistence of wildlife populations) of Burunge Wildlife Management Area (BWMA), we employed a participatory monitoring approach involving WMA personnel. At intermittent intervals between 2011 and 2018, we estimated mammal species richness and population densities of ten mammal species (African elephant, giraffe, buffalo, zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, warthog, impala, Kirk's dik-dik, and vervet monkey) along line transects. We compared mammal species accumulation curves and density estimates with those of time-matched road transect surveys conducted in adjacent Tarangire National Park (TNP). Mammal species richness estimates were similar in both areas, yet observed species richness per transect was greater in TNP compared to BWMA. Species-specific density estimates of time-matched surveys were mostly not significantly different between BWMA and TNP, but elephants occasionally reached greater densities in TNP compared to BWMA. In BWMA, elephant, wildebeest, and impala populations showed significant increases from 2011 to 2018. These results suggest that community-based conservation models can support mammal communities and densities that are similar to national park baselines. In light of the ecological success of this case study, we emphasize the need for continued efforts to ensure that the BWMA is effective. This will require adaptive management to counteract potential negative repercussions of wildlife populations on peoples' livelihoods. This study can be used as a model to evaluate the effectiveness of wildlife management areas across Tanzania.

Unshifting the baseline: a framework for documenting historical population changes and assessing long-term anthropogenic impacts

Ecological baselines-reference states of species' distributions and abundances-are key to the scientific arguments underpinning many conservation and management interventions, as well as to the public support to such interventions. Yet societal as well as scientific perceptions of these baselines are often based on ecosystems that have been deeply transformed by human actions. Despite increased awareness about the pervasiveness and implications of this shifting baseline syndrome, ongoing global assessments of the state of biodiversity do not take into account the long-term, cumulative, anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Here, we propose a new framework for documenting such impacts, by classifying populations according to the extent to which they deviate from a baseline in the absence of human actions. We apply this framework to the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) to illustrate how it can be used to assess populations with different geographies and timelines of known or suspected impacts. Through other examples, we discuss how the framework can be applied to populations for which there is a wide diversity of existing knowledge, by making the best use of the available ecological, historical and archaeological data. Combined across multiple populations, this framework provides a standard for assessing cumulative anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

More is less: net gain in species richness, but biotic homogenization over 140 years

While biodiversity loss continues globally, assessments of regional and local change over time have been equivocal. Here, we assess changes in plant species richness and beta diversity over 140 years at the level of regions within a country. Using 19th-century flora censuses for 14 Danish regions as a baseline, we overcome previous criticisms concerning short time series and neglect of completely altered habitats. We find that species composition has changed dramatically and directionally across all regions. Substantial species losses were more than offset by large gains, resulting in a net increase in species richness in all regions. The occupancy of initially widespread species increased, while initially rare species lost terrain. These changes were accompanied by strong biotic homogenization; i.e. regions are more similar now than they were 140 years ago. Species declining in Denmark were found to be in similar decline all over Northern Europe.

Integrating data from different survey types for population monitoring of an endangered species: the case of the Eld's deer

Despite its value for conservation decision-making, we lack information on population abundances for most species. Because establishing large-scale monitoring schemes is rarely feasible, statistical methods that combine multiple data sources are promising approaches to maximize use of available information. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model that combined different survey data of the endangered Eld’s deer in Shwesettaw Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) in Myanmar and tested our approach in simulation experiments. We combined spatially-restricted line-transect abundance data with more spatially-extensive camera-trap occupancy data to enable estimation of the total deer abundance. The integrated model comprised an ecological model (common to both survey types, based on the equivalence between cloglog-transformed occurrence probability and log-transformed expected abundance) and separate observation models for each survey type. We estimated that the population size of Eld’s deer in SWS is c. 1519 (1061–2114), suggesting it is the world’s largest wild population. The simulations indicated that the potential benefits of combining data include increased precision and better sampling of the spatial variation in the environment, compared to separate analysis of each survey. Our analytical approach, which integrates the strengths of different survey methods, has widespread application for estimating species’ abundances, especially in information-poor regions of the world.

Insular threat associations within taxa worldwide

The global loss of biodiversity can be attributed to numerous threats. While pioneer studies have investigated their relative importance, the majority of those studies are restricted to specific geographic regions and/or taxonomic groups and only consider a small subset of threats, generally in isolation despite their frequent interaction. Here, we investigated 11 major threats responsible for species decline on islands worldwide. We applied an innovative method of network analyses to disentangle the associations of multiple threats on vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in 15 insular regions. Biological invasions, wildlife exploitation, and cultivation, either alone or in association, were found to be the three most important drivers of species extinction and decline on islands. Specifically, wildlife exploitation and cultivation are largely associated with the decline of threatened plants and terrestrial vertebrates, whereas biological invasions mostly threaten invertebrates and freshwater fish. Furthermore, biodiversity in the Indian Ocean and near the Asian coasts is mostly affected by wildlife exploitation and cultivation compared to biological invasions in the Pacific and Atlantic insular regions. We highlighted specific associations of threats at different scales, showing that the analysis of each threat in isolation might be inadequate for developing effective conservation policies and managements.