Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

The challenge of improving long-lasting insecticidal nets coverage on Bioko Island: using data to adapt distribution strategies

Background

Since 2015, malaria vector control on Bioko Island has relied heavily upon long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) to complement other interventions. Despite significant resources utilised, however, achieving and maintaining high coverage has been elusive. Here, core LLIN indicators were used to assess and redefine distribution strategies.

Methods

LLIN indicators were estimated for Bioko Island between 2015 and 2022 using a 1×1 km grid of areas. The way these indicators interacted was used to critically assess coverage targets. Particular attention was paid to spatial heterogeneity and to differences between urban Malabo, the capital, and the rural periphery.

Results

LLIN coverage according to all indicators varied substantially across areas, decreased significantly soon after mass distribution campaigns (MDC) and, with few exceptions, remained consistently below the recommended target. Use was strongly correlated with population access, particularly in Malabo. After a change in strategy in Malabo from MDC to fixed distribution points, use-to-access showed significant improvement, indicating those who obtained their nets from these sources were more likely to keep them and use them. Moreover, their use rates were significantly higher than those of whom sourced their nets elsewhere.

Conclusions

Striking a better balance between LLIN distribution efficiency and coverage represents a major challenge as LLIN retention and use rates remain low despite high access resulting from MDC. The cost benefit of fixed distribution points in Malabo was deemed significant, providing a viable alternative for guaranteeing access to LLINs to those who use them.

Effects of climate on the distribution and conservation of commonly observed European earthworms

Belowground biodiversity distribution does not necessarily reflect aboveground biodiversity patterns, but maps of soil biodiversity remain scarce because of limited data availability. Earthworms belong to the most thoroughly studied soil organisms and-in their role as ecosystem engineers-have a significant impact on ecosystem functioning. We used species distribution modeling (SDMs) and available data sets to map the spatial distribution of commonly observed (i.e., frequently recorded) earthworm species (Annelida, Oligochaeta) across Europe under current and future climate conditions. First, we predicted potential species distributions with commonly used models (i.e., MaxEnt and Biomod) and estimated total species richness (i.e., number of species in a 5 × 5 km grid cell). Second, we determined how much the different types of protected areas covered predicted earthworm richness and species ranges (i.e., distributions) by estimating the respective proportion of the range area. Earthworm species richness was high in central western Europe and low in northeastern Europe. This pattern was mainly associated with annual mean temperature and precipitation seasonality, but the importance of predictor variables to species occurrences varied among species. The geographical ranges of the majority of the earthworm species were predicted to shift to eastern Europe and partly decrease under future climate scenarios. Predicted current and future ranges were only poorly covered by protected areas, such as national parks. More than 80% of future earthworm ranges were on average not protected at all (mean [SD] = 82.6% [0.04]). Overall, our results emphasize the urgency of considering especially vulnerable earthworm species, as well as other soil organisms, in the design of nature conservation measures.

Responses of rhizosphere fungi to the root economics space in grassland monocultures of different age

Recent studies on root traits have shown that there are two axes explaining trait variation belowground: the collaboration axis with mycorrhizal partners and the conservation ('fast - slow') axis. However, it is yet unknown whether these trait axes affect the assembly of soilborne fungi. We expect saprotrophic fungi to link to the conservation axis of root traits, whereas pathogenic and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi link to the collaboration axis, but in opposite directions, as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi might provide pathogen protection. To test these hypotheses, we sequenced rhizosphere fungal communities and measured root traits in monocultures of 25 grassland plant species, differing in age. Within the fungal guilds, we evaluated fungal species richness, relative abundance and community composition. Contrary to our hypotheses, fungal diversity and relative abundance were not strongly related to the root trait axes. However, saprotrophic fungal community composition was affected by the conservation gradient and pathogenic community composition by the collaboration gradient. The rhizosphere AMF community composition did not change along the collaboration gradient, even though the root trait axis was in line with the root mycorrhizal colonization rate. Overall, our results indicate that in the long term, the root trait axes are linked with fungal community composition.

Assessing IRS performance in a gender-integrated vector control programme on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, 2010-2021

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a common vector control strategy in countries with high malaria burden. Historically, social norms have prevented women from working in IRS programmes. The Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project has actively sought to reduce gender inequality in malaria control operations for many years by promoting women's participation in IRS.

METHODS

This study investigated the progress of female engagement and compared spray productivity by gender from 2010 to 2021, using inferential tests and multivariable regression. Spray productivity was measured by rooms sprayed by spray operator per day (RSOD), houses sprayed by spray operator per day (HSOD), and the daily productivity ratio (DPR), defined as the ratio of RSOD to HSOD, which standardized productivity by house size.

RESULTS

The percentage of women participating in IRS has increased over time. The difference in DPR comparing male and female spray operators was only statistically significant (p < 0.05) for two rounds, where the value was higher for women compared to men. Regression analyses showed marginal, significant differences in DPR between men and women, but beta coefficients were extremely small and thus not indicative of a measurable effect of gender on operational performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The quantitative analyses of spray productivity are counter to stigmatizing beliefs that women are less capable than male counterparts during IRS spray rounds. The findings from this research support the participation of women in IRS campaigns, and a renewed effort to implement equitable policies and practices that intentionally engage women in vector control activities.

Ecosystem consequences of invertebrate decline

Human activities cause substantial changes in biodiversity.1,2 Despite ongoing concern about the implications of invertebrate decline,3,4,5,6,7 few empirical studies have examined the ecosystem consequences of invertebrate biomass loss. Here, we test the responses of six ecosystem services informed by 30 above- and belowground ecosystem variables to three levels of aboveground (i.e., vegetation associated) invertebrate community biomass (100%, 36%, and 0% of ambient biomass) in experimental grassland mesocosms in a controlled Ecotron facility. In line with recent reports on invertebrate biomass loss over the last decade, our 36% biomass treatment also represented a decrease in invertebrate abundance (-70%) and richness (-44%). Moreover, we simulated the pronounced change in invertebrate biomass and turnover in community composition across the season. We found that the loss of invertebrate biomass decreases ecosystem multifunctionality, including two critical ecosystem services, aboveground pest control and belowground decomposition, while harvested plant biomass increases, likely because less energy was channeled up the food chain. Moreover, communities and ecosystem functions become decoupled with a lower biomass of invertebrates. Our study shows that invertebrate loss threatens the integrity of grasslands by decoupling ecosystem processes and decreasing ecosystem-service supply.

The heterogeneity-diversity-system performance nexus

Ever-growing human population and nutritional demands, supply chain disruptions, and advancing climate change have led to the realization that changes in diversity and system performance are intimately linked. Moreover, diversity and system performance depend on heterogeneity. Mitigating changes in system performance and promoting sustainable living conditions requires transformative decisions. Here, we introduce the heterogeneity-diversity-system performance (HDP) nexus as the conceptual basis upon which to formulate transformative decisions. We suggest that managing the heterogeneity of systems will best allow diversity to provide multiple benefits to people. Based on ecological theory, we pose that the HDP nexus is broadly applicable across systems, disciplines, and sectors, and should thus be considered in future decision making as a way to have a more sustainable global future.

Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission

The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.

Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventions

BACKGROUND

Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach.

METHODS

This study used individual and household-level data from the 2015 and 2018 annual malaria indicator surveys on Bioko Island, as well as remotely-sensed environmental data in multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the odds of malaria infection. The analyses were stratified by urban and rural settings and by survey year.

RESULTS

Malaria prevalence was higher in 10-14-year-old children and similar between female and male individuals. After adjusting for demographic factors and other covariates, many of the variables investigated showed no significant association with malaria infection. The factor most strongly associated was history of travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea (mEG), which increased the odds significantly both in urban and rural settings (people who travelled had 4 times the odds of infection). Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net decreased significantly the odds of malaria across urban and rural settings and survey years (net users had around 30% less odds of infection), highlighting their contribution to malaria control on the Island. Improved housing conditions indicated some protection, though this was not consistent across settings and survey year.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria risk on Bioko Island is heterogeneous and determined by a combination of factors interacting with local mosquito ecology. These interactions grant further investigation in order to better adapt control according to need. The single most important risk factor identified was travel to mEG, in line with previous investigations, and represents a great challenge for the success of malaria control on the Island.

The global distribution and environmental drivers of the soil antibiotic resistome

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the global distribution and environmental drivers of key microbial functional traits such as antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Soils are one of Earth's largest reservoirs of ARGs, which are integral for soil microbial competition, and have potential implications for plant and human health. Yet, their diversity and global patterns remain poorly described. Here, we analyzed 285 ARGs in soils from 1012 sites across all continents and created the first global atlas with the distributions of topsoil ARGs.

RESULTS

We show that ARGs peaked in high latitude cold and boreal forests. Climatic seasonality and mobile genetic elements, associated with the transmission of antibiotic resistance, were also key drivers of their global distribution. Dominant ARGs were mainly related to multidrug resistance genes and efflux pump machineries. We further pinpointed the global hotspots of the diversity and proportions of soil ARGs.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, our work provides the foundation for a better understanding of the ecology and global distribution of the environmental soil antibiotic resistome. Video Abstract.

Grazing and ecosystem service delivery in global drylands

Grazing represents the most extensive use of land worldwide. Yet its impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain because pervasive interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil properties, and biodiversity may occur but have never been addressed simultaneously. Using a standardized survey at 98 sites across six continents, we show that interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil, and biodiversity are critical to explain the delivery of fundamental ecosystem services across drylands worldwide. Increasing grazing pressure reduced ecosystem service delivery in warmer and species-poor drylands, whereas positive effects of grazing were observed in colder and species-rich areas. Considering interactions between grazing and local abiotic and biotic factors is key for understanding the fate of dryland ecosystems under climate change and increasing human pressure.

The need for larval source management accompanying urban development projects in malaria endemic areas: a case study on Bioko Island

Background

In 2017, several new housing districts were constructed on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. This case study assessed the impact construction projects had on mosquito larval habitats and the effectiveness of larval source management in reducing malaria vector density within the surrounding area.

Methods

Anopheline larval presence was assessed at 11 new construction sites by the proportion of larval habitats containing Anopheline pupae and late instar larval stages. Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) larvicide was applied weekly to nine locations for 30 weeks, while two locations received no larvicide and acted as controls. Adult mosquito density was monitored via human landing collections in adjacent communities of six construction sites, including the two control sites.

Results

The sites that received Bti had significantly lower observation rates of both pupae (3.2% vs. 18.0%; p < 0.001) and late instar Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (14.1 vs. 43.6%; p < 0.001) compared to the two untreated sites. Anopheles spp. accounted for 67% of mosquitoes collected with human landing collections and were captured at significantly lower levels in communities adjacent to treated construction sites compared to untreated sites (p < 0.001), with an estimated 38% reduction in human biting rate (IRR: 0.62, 95% CI IRR: 0.55, 0.69). Seven months after the start of the study, untreated sites were treated due to ethical concerns given results from treatment sties, necessitating immediate Bti application. The following week, the number of habitats, the proportion of larval sites with Anopheles spp. pupae, late instars, and adult biting rates in adjacent communities to these sites all decreased to comparable levels across all sites.

Conclusion

Findings suggest larval source management represents an effective intervention to suppress mosquito populations during infrastructure development. Incorporating larval source management into ongoing and planned construction initiatives represents an opportunity to fine tune vector control in response to anthropogenetic changes. Ideally, this should become standard practice in malaria-endemic regions in order to reduce viable mosquito habitats that are common by-products of construction.

The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change has been the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide. Direct exploitation of natural resources ranks second and pollution third; climate change and invasive alien species have been significantly less important than the top two drivers. The oceans, where direct exploitation and climate change dominate, have a different driver hierarchy from land and fresh water. It also varies among types of biodiversity indicators. For example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Stopping global biodiversity loss requires policies and actions to tackle all the major drivers and their interactions, not some of them in isolation.

Global hotspots for soil nature conservation

Soils are the foundation of all terrestrial ecosystems¹. However, unlike for plants and animals, a global assessment of hotspots for soil nature conservation is still lacking². This hampers our ability to establish nature conservation priorities for the multiple dimensions that support the soil system: from soil biodiversity to ecosystem services. Here, to identify global hotspots for soil nature conservation, we performed a global field survey that includes observations of biodiversity (archaea, bacteria, fungi, protists and invertebrates) and functions (critical for six ecosystem services) in 615 composite samples of topsoil from a standardized survey in all continents. We found that each of the different ecological dimensions of soils-that is, species richness (alpha diversity, measured as amplicon sequence variants), community dissimilarity and ecosystem services-peaked in contrasting regions of the planet, and were associated with different environmental factors. Temperate ecosystems showed the highest species richness, whereas community dissimilarity peaked in the tropics, and colder high-latitudinal ecosystems were identified as hotspots of ecosystem services. These findings highlight the complexities that are involved in simultaneously protecting multiple ecological dimensions of soil. We further show that most of these hotspots are not adequately covered by protected areas (more than 70%), and are vulnerable in the context of several scenarios of global change. Our global estimation of priorities for soil nature conservation highlights the importance of accounting for the multidimensionality of soil biodiversity and ecosystem services to conserve soils for future generations.

Challenges of and opportunities for protecting European soil biodiversity

Soil biodiversity and related ecosystem functions are neglected in most biodiversity assessments and nature conservation actions. We examined how society, and particularly policy makers, have addressed these factors worldwide with a focus on Europe and explored the role of soils in nature conservation in Germany as an example. We reviewed past and current global and European policies, compared soil ecosystem functioning in- and outside protected areas, and examined the role of soils in nature conservation management via text analyses. Protection and conservation of soil biodiversity and soil ecosystem functioning have been insufficient. Soil-related policies are unenforceable and lack soil biodiversity conservation goals, focusing instead on other environmental objectives. We found no evidence of positive effects of current nature conservation measures in multiple soil ecosystem functions in Europe. In German conservation management, soils are considered only from a limited perspective (e.g., as physicochemical part of the environment and as habitat for aboveground organisms). By exploring policy, evidence, and management as it relates to soil ecosystems, we suggest an integrative perspective to move nature conservation toward targeting soil ecosystems directly (e.g., by setting baselines, monitoring soil threats, and establishing a soil indicator system).

Drivers and trends of global soil microbial carbon over two decades

Soil microorganisms are central to sustain soil functions and services, like carbon and nutrient cycling. Currently, we only have a limited understanding of the spatial-temporal dynamics of soil microorganisms, restricting our ability to assess long-term effects of climate and land-cover change on microbial roles in soil biogeochemistry. This study assesses the temporal trends in soil microbial biomass carbon and identifies the main drivers of biomass change regionally and globally to detect the areas sensitive to these environmental factors. Here, we combined a global soil microbial biomass carbon data set, random forest modelling, and environmental layers to predict spatial-temporal dynamics of microbial biomass carbon stocks from 1992 to 2013. Soil microbial biomass carbon stocks decreased globally by 3.4 ± 3.0% (mean ± 95% CI) between 1992 and 2013 for the predictable regions, equivalent to 149 Mt being lost over the period, or ~1‰ of soil C. Northern areas with high soil microbial carbon stocks experienced the strongest decrease, mostly driven by increasing temperatures. In contrast, land-cover change was a weaker global driver of change in microbial carbon, but had, in some cases, important regional effects.

Fire frequency and type regulate the response of soil carbon cycling and storage to fire across soil depths and ecosystems: A meta-analysis

Fire is a very common disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems and can give rise to significant effects on soil carbon (C) cycling and storage. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis on the response of soil C cycling and storage across soil profiles (organic layer, 0-5 cm, 0-10 cm, 0-20 cm, and 20-100 cm) to fire reported in 308 studies across 383 sites and examined the role of fire frequency, fire type, soil type, ecosystem type, and post-fire time in regulating the response of soil C dynamics to fire. Overall, we found soil C cycling and storage were more responsive to one fire and wildfire as compared to frequent fire and prescribed fire, respectively. Soil respiration significantly decreased by 22 ± 9% by one fire, but was not significantly affected by frequent fire across ecosystems. One fire significantly reduced soil C content in the organic, 0-10 cm, and 20-100 cm layers by 27 ± 16%, 10 ± 9%, and 33 ± 18%, respectively, while frequent fire significantly reduced soil C content at a depth of 0-5 cm and 0-20 cm by 29 ± 8% and 16 ± 12%, respectively. Soil C cycling and storage showed little response to frequent prescribed fire. In addition, the response of soil C cycling and storage varied among different soil and ecosystem types, with a stronger response being observed in forest than in grassland. Within 20 years post-fire, soil C cycling and storage tended to recover only after one fire but not after frequent fire. We also found that soil physicochemical properties and microbial communities were more responsive to one fire than frequent fire, which could indirectly affect the effects of fire on soil C cycling and storage. The results of our study have filled some critical gaps in previous meta-analyses in fire ecology.

Real-time, spatial decision support to optimize malaria vector control: The case of indoor residual spraying on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Public health interventions require evidence-based decision-making to maximize impact. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are designed to collect, store, process and analyze data to generate knowledge and inform decisions. This paper discusses how the use of a SDSS, the Campaign Information Management System (CIMS), to support malaria control operations on Bioko Island has impacted key process indicators of indoor residual spraying (IRS): coverage, operational efficiency and productivity. We used data from the last five annual IRS rounds (2017 to 2021) to estimate these indicators. IRS coverage was calculated as the percentage of houses sprayed per unit area, represented by 100x100 m map-sectors. Optimal coverage was defined as between 80% and 85%, and under and overspraying as coverage below 80% and above 85%, respectively. Operational efficiency was defined as the fraction of map-sectors that achieved optimal coverage. Daily productivity was expressed as the number of houses sprayed per sprayer per day (h/s/d). These indicators were compared across the five rounds. Overall IRS coverage (i.e. percent of total houses sprayed against the overall denominator by round) was highest in 2017 (80.2%), yet this round showed the largest proportion of oversprayed map-sectors (36.0%). Conversely, despite producing a lower overall coverage (77.5%), the 2021 round showed the highest operational efficiency (37.7%) and the lowest proportion of oversprayed map-sectors (18.7%). In 2021, higher operational efficiency was also accompanied by marginally higher productivity. Productivity ranged from 3.3 h/s/d in 2020 to 3.9 h/s/d in 2021 (median 3.6 h/s/d). Our findings showed that the novel approach to data collection and processing proposed by the CIMS has significantly improved the operational efficiency of IRS on Bioko. High spatial granularity during planning and deployment together with closer follow-up of field teams using real-time data supported more homogeneous delivery of optimal coverage while sustaining high productivity.

Temperature thresholds drive the global distribution of soil fungal decomposers

Unraveling the biogeographic pattern of soil fungal decomposers along temperature gradients-in smooth linearity or an abrupt jump-can help us connect the global carbon cycle to global warming. Through a standardized global field survey, we identify the existence of temperature thresholds that control the global distribution of soil fungal decomposers, leading to abrupt reductions in their proportion (i.e., the relative abundance in the fungal community) immediately after crossing particular air and soil temperature thresholds. For example, small increases over the mean annual temperature threshold of ~9°C result in abrupt reductions in their proportion, paralleling a similar temperature threshold for soil carbon content. We further find that the proportion of soil fungal decomposers is more sensitive to temperature increases under arid conditions. Given the positive correlation between the global distributions of fungal decomposers and soil heterotrophic respiration, the reported temperature-driven abrupt reductions in fungal decomposers could further suppress their driven soil decomposition processes and reduce carbon fluxes from soils to the atmosphere with implications for climate change feedback. This work not only advances the current knowledge on the global distribution of soil fungal decomposers, but also highlights that small changes in temperature around certain thresholds can lead to potential unexpected consequences in global carbon cycling under projected climate change.

Priming effects in soils across Europe

Land use is a key factor driving changes in soil carbon (C) cycle and contents worldwide. The priming effect (PE)-CO₂ emissions from changed soil organic matter decomposition in response to fresh C inputs-is one of the most unpredictable phenomena associated with C cycling and related nutrient mobilization. Yet, we know very little about the influence of land use on soil PE across contrasting environments. Here, we conducted a continental-scale study to (i) determine the PE induced by ¹³ C-glucose additions to 126 cropland and seminatural (forests and grasslands) soils from 22 European countries; (ii) compare PE magnitude in soils under various crop types (i.e., cereals, nonpermanent industrial crops, and orchards); and (iii) model the environmental factors influencing PE. On average, PEs were negative in seminatural (with values ranging between -60 and 26 µg C g^-1 soil after 35 days of incubation; median = -11) and cropland (from -55 to 27 µC g^-1 soil; median = -4.3) soils, meaning that microbial communities preferentially switched from soil organic C decomposition to glucose mineralization. PE was significantly less negative in croplands compared with seminatural ecosystems and not influenced by the crop type. PE was driven by soil basal respiration (reflecting microbial activity), microbial biomass C, and soil organic C, which were all higher in seminatural ecosystems compared with croplands. This cross European experimental and modeling study elucidated that PE intensity is dependent on land use and allowed to clarify the factors regulating this important C cycling process.

Analysis of nucleic acids extracted from rapid diagnostic tests reveals a significant proportion of false positive test results associated with recent malaria treatment

BACKGROUND

Surveillance programmes often use malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to determine the proportion of the population carrying parasites in their peripheral blood to assess the malaria transmission intensity. Despite an increasing number of reports on false-negative and false-positive RDT results, there is a lack of systematic quality control activities for RDTs deployed in malaria surveillance programmes.

METHODS

The diagnostic performance of field-deployed RDTs used for malaria surveys was assessed by retrospective molecular analysis of the blood retained on the tests.

RESULTS

Of the 2865 RDTs that were collected in 2018 on Bioko Island and analysed in this study, 4.7% had a false-negative result. These false-negative RDTs were associated with low parasite density infections. In 16.6% of analysed samples, masked pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions were identified, in which at least one Plasmodium falciparum strain carried a gene deletion. Among all positive RDTs analysed, 28.4% were tested negative by qPCR and therefore considered to be false-positive. Analysing the questionnaire data collected from the participants, this high proportion of false-positive RDTs could be explained by P. falciparum histidine rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) antigen persistence after recent malaria treatment.

CONCLUSION

Malaria surveillance depending solely on RDTs needs well-integrated quality control procedures to assess the extent and impact of reduced sensitivity and specificity of RDTs on malaria control programmes.

Nutrient status not secondary metabolites drives herbivory and pathogen infestation across differently mycorrhized tree monocultures and mixtures

•

Research on tree diversity and antagonists often neglects plant complementarity.

•

We studied species richness/mycorrhizal type effects on leaf herbivory/pathogens.

•

Mycorrhizal type had different effects on herbivory and pathogen infestation.

•

Elemental not metabolite concentrations determined leaf damage.ld.

Research aimed at understanding the mechanisms underlying the relationship between tree diversity and antagonist infestation is often neglecting resource-use complementarity among plant species. We investigated the effects of tree species identity, species richness, and mycorrhizal type on leaf herbivory and pathogen infestation. We used a tree sapling experiment manipulating the two most common mycorrhizal types, arbuscular mycorrhiza and ectomycorrhiza, via respective tree species in monocultures and two-species mixtures. We visually assessed leaf herbivory and pathogen infestation rates, and measured concentrations of a suite of plant metabolites (amino acids, sugars, and phenolics), leaf elemental concentrations (carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus), and tree biomass. Tree species and mycorrhizal richness had no significant effect on herbivory and pathogen infestation, whereas species identity and mycorrhizal type had. Damage rates were higher in arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) than in ectomycorrhizal (EM) trees. Our structural equation model (SEM) indicated that elemental, but not metabolite concentrations, determined herbivory and pathogen infestation, suggesting that the investigated chemical defence strategies may not have been involved in the effects found in our study with tree saplings. Other chemical and physical defence strategies as well as species identity as its determinant may have played a more crucial role in the studied saplings. Furthermore, the SEM indicated a direct positive effect of AM trees on herbivory rates, suggesting that other dominant mechanisms, not considered here, were involved as well. We found differences in the attribution of elemental concentrations between the two rates. This points to the fact that herbivory and pathogen infestation are driven by distinct mechanisms. Our study highlights the importance of biotic contexts for understanding the mechanisms underlying the effects of biodiversity on tree-antagonist interactions.

Measuring the accuracy of gridded human population density surfaces: A case study in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Background

Geospatial datasets of population are becoming more common in models used for health policy. Publicly-available maps of human population make a consistent picture from inconsistent census data, and the techniques they use to impute data makes each population map unique. Each mapping model explains its methods, but it can be difficult to know which map is appropriate for which policy work. High quality census datasets, where available, are a unique opportunity to characterize maps by comparing them with truth.

Methods

We use census data from a bed-net mass-distribution campaign on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, conducted by the Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Program as a gold standard to evaluate LandScan (LS), WorldPop Constrained (WP-C) and WorldPop Unconstrained (WP-U), Gridded Population of the World (GPW), and the High-Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL). Each layer is compared to the gold-standard using statistical measures to evaluate distribution, error, and bias. We investigated how map choice affects burden estimates from a malaria prevalence model.

Results

Specific population layers were able to match the gold-standard distribution at different population densities. LandScan was able to most accurately capture highly urban distribution, HRSL and WP-C matched best at all other lower population densities. GPW and WP-U performed poorly everywhere. Correctly capturing empty pixels is key, and smaller pixel sizes (100 m vs 1 km) improve this. Normalizing areas based on known district populations increased performance. The use of differing population layers in a malaria model showed a disparity in results around transition points between endemicity levels.

Discussion

The metrics in this paper, some of them novel in this context, characterize how these population maps differ from the gold standard census and from each other. We show that the metrics help understand the performance of a population map within a malaria model. The closest match to the census data would combine LandScan within urban areas and the HRSL for rural areas. Researchers should prefer particular maps if health calculations have a strong dependency on knowing where people are not, or if it is important to categorize variation in density within a city.

Quantifying malaria acquired during travel and its role in malaria elimination on Bioko Island

BACKGROUND

Malaria elimination is the goal for Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Intensive interventions implemented since 2004 have reduced prevalence, but progress has stalled in recent years. A challenge for elimination has been malaria infections in residents acquired during travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea. The present article quantifies how off-island contributes to remaining malaria prevalence on Bioko Island, and investigates the potential role of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine in making further progress towards elimination.

METHODS

Malaria transmission on Bioko Island was simulated using a model calibrated based on data from the Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) from 2015 to 2018, including detailed travel histories and malaria positivity by rapid-diagnostic tests (RDTs), as well as geospatial estimates of malaria prevalence. Mosquito population density was adjusted to fit local transmission, conditional on importation rates under current levels of control and within-island mobility. The simulations were then used to evaluate the impact of two pre-erythrocytic vaccine distribution strategies: mass treat and vaccinate, and prophylactic vaccination for off-island travellers. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis was performed through an ensemble of simulations fit to the Bayesian joint posterior probability distribution of the geospatial prevalence estimates.

RESULTS

The simulations suggest that in Malabo, an urban city containing 80% of the population, there are some pockets of residual transmission, but a large proportion of infections are acquired off-island by travellers to the mainland. Outside of Malabo, prevalence was mainly attributable to local transmission. The uncertainty in the local transmission vs. importation is lowest within Malabo and highest outside. Using a pre-erythrocytic vaccine to protect travellers would have larger benefits than using the vaccine to protect residents of Bioko Island from local transmission. In simulations, mass treatment and vaccination had short-lived benefits, as malaria prevalence returned to current levels as the vaccine's efficacy waned. Prophylactic vaccination of travellers resulted in longer-lasting reductions in prevalence. These projections were robust to underlying uncertainty in prevalence estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The modelled outcomes suggest that the volume of malaria cases imported from the mainland is a partial driver of continued endemic malaria on Bioko Island, and that continued elimination efforts on must account for human travel activity.

Global data on earthworm abundance, biomass, diversity and corresponding environmental properties

Earthworms are an important soil taxon as ecosystem engineers, providing a variety of crucial ecosystem functions and services. Little is known about their diversity and distribution at large spatial scales, despite the availability of considerable amounts of local-scale data. Earthworm diversity data, obtained from the primary literature or provided directly by authors, were collated with information on site locations, including coordinates, habitat cover, and soil properties. Datasets were required, at a minimum, to include abundance or biomass of earthworms at a site. Where possible, site-level species lists were included, as well as the abundance and biomass of individual species and ecological groups. This global dataset contains 10,840 sites, with 184 species, from 60 countries and all continents except Antarctica. The data were obtained from 182 published articles, published between 1973 and 2017, and 17 unpublished datasets. Amalgamating data into a single global database will assist researchers in investigating and answering a wide variety of pressing questions, for example, jointly assessing aboveground and belowground biodiversity distributions and drivers of biodiversity change.

Global projections of the soil microbiome in the Anthropocene

AIM

Soil microbes are essential for maintenance of life-supporting ecosystem services, but projections of how these microbes will be affected by global change scenarios are lacking. Therefore, our aim was to provide projections of future soil microbial distribution using several scenarios of global change.

LOCATION

Global.

TIME PERIOD

1950-2090.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Bacteria and fungi.

METHODS

We used a global database of soil microbial communities across six continents to estimate past and future trends of the soil microbiome. To do so, we used structural equation models to include the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and land use in our predictions, using current climate (temperature and precipitation) and land-use projections between 1950 and 2090.

RESULTS

Local bacterial richness will increase in all scenarios of change in climate and land use considered, although this increase will be followed by a generalized community homogenization process affecting > 85% of terrestrial ecosystems. Changes in the relative abundance of functional genes associated with the increases in bacterial richness are also expected. Based on an ecological cluster analysis, our results suggest that phylotypes such as Geodermatophilus spp. (typical desert bacteria), Mycobacterium sp. (which are known to include important human pathogens), Streptomyces mirabilis (major producers of antibiotic resistance genes) or potential fungal soil-borne plant pathogens belonging to Ascomycota fungi (Venturia spp., Devriesia spp.) will become more abundant in their communities.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence that climate change has a stronger influence on soil microbial communities than change in land use (often including deforestation and agricultural expansion), although most of the effects of climate are indirect, through other environmental variables (e.g., changes in soil pH). The same was found for microbial functions such as the prevalence of phosphate transport genes. We provide reliable predictions about the changes in the global distribution of microbial communities, showing an increase in alpha diversity and a homogenization of soil microbial communities in the Anthropocene.

The multidimensionality of soil macroecology

The recent past has seen a tremendous surge in soil macroecological studies and new insights into the global drivers of one-quarter of the biodiversity of the Earth. Building on these important developments, a recent paper in Global Ecology and Biogeography outlined promising methods and approaches to advance soil macroecology. Among other recommendations, White and colleagues introduced the concept of a spatial three-dimensionality in soil macroecology by considering the different spheres of influence and scales, as soil organism size ranges vary from bacteria to macro- and megafauna. Here, we extend this concept by discussing three additional dimensions (biological, physical, and societal) that are crucial to steer soil macroecology from pattern description towards better mechanistic understanding. In our view, these are the requirements to establish it as a predictive science that can inform policy about relevant nature and management conservation actions. We highlight the need to explore temporal dynamics of soil biodiversity and functions across multiple temporal scales, integrating different facets of biodiversity (i.e., variability in body size, life-history traits, species identities, and groups of taxa) and their relationships to multiple ecosystem functions, in addition to the feedback effects between humans and soil biodiversity. We also argue that future research needs to consider effective soil conservation policy and management in combination with higher awareness of the contributions of soil-based nature's contributions to people. To verify causal relationships, soil macroecology should be paired with local and globally distributed experiments. The present paper expands the multidimensional perspective on soil macroecology to guide future research contents and funding. We recommend considering these multiple dimensions in projected global soil biodiversity monitoring initiatives.

Blind spots in global soil biodiversity and ecosystem function research

Soils harbor a substantial fraction of the world's biodiversity, contributing to many crucial ecosystem functions. It is thus essential to identify general macroecological patterns related to the distribution and functioning of soil organisms to support their conservation and consideration by governance. These macroecological analyses need to represent the diversity of environmental conditions that can be found worldwide. Here we identify and characterize existing environmental gaps in soil taxa and ecosystem functioning data across soil macroecological studies and 17,186 sampling sites across the globe. These data gaps include important spatial, environmental, taxonomic, and functional gaps, and an almost complete absence of temporally explicit data. We also identify the limitations of soil macroecological studies to explore general patterns in soil biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, with only 0.3% of all sampling sites having both information about biodiversity and function, although with different taxonomic groups and functions at each site. Based on this information, we provide clear priorities to support and expand soil macroecological research.

Malaria outbreak in Riaba district, Bioko Island: lessons learned

At the beginning of 2019, a sudden surge of malaria cases was observed in the district of Riaba, Bioko Island. Between January and April, confirmed malaria cases increased 3.8-fold compared to the same period in 2018. Concurrently, anopheline human biting rate (HBR) increased 2.1-fold. During the outbreak, 82.2% of the district population was tested for malaria with a rapid diagnostic test; 37.2% of those tested had a detectable infection and were treated according to national guidelines. Vector control interventions, including indoor residual spraying and larval source management were scaled-up. After the interventions, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 70% and the overall parasite prevalence in the communities by 43.8%. Observed prevalence in a follow up malaria indicator survey, however, was significantly higher than elsewhere on the island, and higher than in previous years. There was no significant reduction in HBR, which remained high for the rest of the year. The surge was attributed to various factors, chiefly increased rainfall and a large number of anthropogenic anopheline breeding sites created by construction works. This case study highlights the need for sustained vector control interventions and multi-sector participation, particularly in malaria control and elimination settings with persistently high local malaria receptivity.

Global vulnerability of soil ecosystems to erosion

CONTEXT

Soil erosion is one of the main threats driving soil degradation across the globe with important impacts on crop yields, soil biota, biogeochemical cycles, and ultimately human nutrition.

OBJECTIVES

Here, using an empirical model, we present a global and temporally explicit assessment of soil erosion risk according to recent (2001-2013) dynamics of rainfall and vegetation cover change to identify vulnerable areas for soils and soil biodiversity.

METHODS

We used an adaptation of the Universal Soil Loss Equation together with state of the art remote sensing models to create a spatially and temporally explicit global model of soil erosion and soil protection. Finally, we overlaid global maps of soil biodiversity to assess the potential vulnerability of these soil communities to soil erosion.

RESULTS

We show a consistent decline in soil erosion protection over time across terrestrial biomes, which resulted in a global increase of 11.7% in soil erosion rates. Notably, soil erosion risk systematically increased between 2006 and 2013 in relation to the baseline year (2001). Although vegetation cover is central to soil protection, this increase was mostly driven by changes in rainfall erosivity. Globally, soil erosion is expected not only to have an impact on the vulnerability of soil conditions but also on soil biodiversity with 6.4% (for soil macrofauna) and 7.6% (for soil fungi) of these vulnerable areas coinciding with regions with high soil biodiversity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that an increasing proportion of soils are degraded globally, affecting not only livelihoods but also potentially degrading local and regional landscapes. Similarly, many degraded regions coincide with and may have impacted high levels of soil biodiversity.

Characterising malaria connectivity using malaria indicator survey data

Malaria connectivity describes the flow of parasites among transmission sources and sinks within a given landscape. Because of the spatial and temporal scales at which parasites are transported by their hosts, malaria sub-populations are largely defined by mosquito movement and malaria connectivity among them is largely driven by human movement. Characterising malaria connectivity thus requires characterising human travel between areas with differing levels of exposure to malaria. Whilst understanding malaria connectivity is fundamental for optimising interventions, particularly in areas seeking or sustaining elimination, there is a dearth of human movement data required to achieve this goal. Malaria indicator surveys (MIS) are a generally under utilised but potentially rich source of travel data that provide a unique opportunity to study simple associations between malaria infection and human travel in large population samples. This paper shares the experience working with MIS data from Bioko Island that revealed programmatically useful information regarding malaria importation through human travel. Simple additions to MIS questionnaires greatly augmented the level of detail of the travel data, which can be used to characterise human travel patterns and malaria connectivity to assist targeting interventions. It is argued that MIS potentially represent very important and timely sources of travel data that need to be further exploited.

Global distribution of earthworm diversity

Soil organisms, including earthworms, are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about their diversity, their distribution, and the threats affecting them. We compiled a global dataset of sampled earthworm communities from 6928 sites in 57 countries as a basis for predicting patterns in earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass. We found that local species richness and abundance typically peaked at higher latitudes, displaying patterns opposite to those observed in aboveground organisms. However, high species dissimilarity across tropical locations may cause diversity across the entirety of the tropics to be higher than elsewhere. Climate variables were found to be more important in shaping earthworm communities than soil properties or habitat cover. These findings suggest that climate change may have serious implications for earthworm communities and for the functions they provide.

Global mismatches in aboveground and belowground biodiversity

Human activities are accelerating global biodiversity change and have resulted in severely threatened ecosystem services. A large proportion of terrestrial biodiversity is harbored by soil, but soil biodiversity has been omitted from many global biodiversity assessments and conservation actions, and understanding of global patterns of soil biodiversity remains limited. In particular, the extent to which hotspots and coldspots of aboveground and soil biodiversity overlap is not clear. We examined global patterns of these overlaps by mapping indices of aboveground (mammals, birds, amphibians, vascular plants) and soil (bacteria, fungi, macrofauna) biodiversity that we created using previously published data on species richness. Areas of mismatch between aboveground and soil biodiversity covered 27% of Earth's terrestrial surface. The temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome had the highest proportion of grid cells with high aboveground biodiversity but low soil biodiversity, whereas the boreal and tundra biomes had intermediate soil biodiversity but low aboveground biodiversity. While more data on soil biodiversity are needed, both to cover geographic gaps and to include additional taxa, our results suggest that protecting aboveground biodiversity may not sufficiently reduce threats to soil biodiversity. Given the functional importance of soil biodiversity and the role of soils in human well-being, soil biodiversity should be considered further in policy agendas and conservation actions by adapting management practices to sustain soil biodiversity and considering soil biodiversity when designing protected areas.

Mapping and enumerating houses and households to support malaria control interventions on Bioko Island

BACKGROUND

Housing mapping and household enumeration are essential for the planning, implementation, targeting, and monitoring of malaria control interventions. In many malaria endemic countries, control efforts are hindered by incomplete or non-existent housing cartography and household enumeration. This paper describes the development of a comprehensive mapping and enumeration system to support the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP).

RESULTS

A highly detailed database was developed to include every housing unit on Bioko Island and uniquely enumerate the associated households residing in these houses. First, the island was divided into a virtual, geo-dereferenced grid of 1 × 1 km sequentially numbered map-areas, each of which was in turn subdivided into one hundred, 100 × 100 m sequentially numbered map-sectors. Second, high-resolution satellite imagery was used to sequentially and uniquely identify all housing units within each map-sector. Third, where satellite imagery was not available, global positioning systems (GPS) were used as the basis for uniquely identifying and mapping housing units in a sequential manner. A total of 97,048 housing units were mapped by 2018, 56% of which were concentrated in just 5.2% of Bioko Island's total mapped area. Of these housing units, 70.7% were occupied, thus representing uniquely identified households.

CONCLUSIONS

The housing unit mapping and household enumeration system developed for Bioko Island enabled the BIMCP to more effectively plan, implement, target, and monitor malaria control interventions. Since 2014, the BIMCP has used the unique household identifiers to monitor all household-level interventions, including indoor residual spraying, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets distribution, and annual malaria indicator surveys. The coding system used to create the unique housing unit and household identifiers is highly intuitive and allows quick location of any house within the grid without a GPS. Its flexibility has permitted the BIMCP to easily take into account the rapid and substantial changes in housing infrastructure. Importantly, by utilizing this coding system, an unprecedented quantity and diversity of detailed, geo-referenced demographic and health data have been assembled that have proved highly relevant for informing decision-making both for malaria control and potentially for the wider public health agenda on Bioko Island.

Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017.

METHODS

In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps.

FINDINGS

We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5-27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7-15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6-67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3-50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0-55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability.

INTERPRETATION

Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island

Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection among off-island travelers are significantly higher than the rest of the population. We estimate that malaria importation rates are high enough to explain malaria prevalence in much of Malabo and its surroundings, and that local transmission is highest along the West Coast of the island. Despite uncertainty, these estimates of residual transmission and importation serve as a basis for evaluating progress towards elimination and for efficiently allocating resources as Bioko makes the transition from control to elimination.

Recognizing the quiet extinction of invertebrates

Invertebrates are central to the functioning of ecosystems, yet they are underappreciated and understudied. Recent work has shown that they are suffering from rapid decline. Here we call for a greater focus on invertebrates and make recommendations for future investigation.

malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project

Background

The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) has worked to assemble and maintain a global open-access database of spatial malariometric data for over a decade. This data spans various formats and topics, including: geo-located surveys of malaria parasite rate; global administrative boundary shapefiles; and global and regional rasters representing the distribution of malaria and associated illnesses, blood disorders, and intervention coverage. MAP has recently released malariaAtlas, an R package providing a direct interface to MAP’s routinely-updated malariometric databases and research outputs.

Methods and results

The current paper reviews the functionality available in malariaAtlas and highlights its utility for spatial epidemiological analysis of malaria. malariaAtlas enables users to freely download, visualise and analyse global malariometric data within R. Currently available data types include: malaria parasite rate and vector occurrence point data; subnational administrative boundary shapefiles; and a large suite of rasters covering a diverse range of metrics related to malaria research. malariaAtlas is here used in two mock analyses to illustrate how this data may be incorporated into a standard R workflow for spatial analysis.

Conclusions

malariaAtlas is the first open-access R-interface to malariometric data, providing a new and reproducible means of accessing such data within a freely available and commonly used statistical software environment. In this way, the malariaAtlas package aims to contribute to the environment of data-sharing within the malaria research community.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2500-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.