Kidney Function as Risk Factor and Predictor of Cardiovascular Outcomes and Mortality Among Older Adults

Nonlinear association between proteinuria levels and the risk of cardiovascular disease events and all-cause mortality among chronic kidney disease patients

BACKGROUND

The association between proteinuria levels and cardiovascular disease (CVD) development and all-cause mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients remains controversial.

METHODS

In this investigation, we conducted a retrospective analysis involving 1138 patients who were registered in the CKD-Research of Outcomes in Treatment and Epidemiology (ROUTE) study. The primary outcome of this study was the composite of cardiovascular events or all-cause death. Cox proportional hazards regression, smooth curve fitting, piecewise linear regression, and subgroup analyses were used.

RESULTS

The mean age of the included individuals was 67.3 ± 13.6 years old. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for UPCR in middle and high groups, compared to the low group, were 1.93 (95% CI: 1.28-2.91) and 4.12 (95% CI: 2.87-5.92), respectively, after multivariable adjustment. Further adjustments maintained significant associations; HRs for middle and high groups were 1.71 (95% CI: 1.12-2.61) and 3.07 (95% CI: 2.08-4.54). A nonlinear UPCR-primary outcome relationship was observed, with an inflection point at 3.93 g/gCr.

CONCLUSION

Among non-dialyzed patients with stage G2-G5 CKD, a nonlinear association between UPCR and the primary outcome was observed. A higher UPCR (when UPCR < 3.93 g/gCr) was an independent predictor of the primary outcome. Importantly, our study predates SGLT2 inhibitor use, showcasing outcomes achievable without these medications. Future research considerations will involve factors like SGLT-2 inhibitor utilization.

Kidney dysfunction predicts 90 days mortality after stroke thrombectomy independent of cardiovascular risk factors and chronic kidney disease

INTRODUCTION

Kidney dysfunction (KD) is a risk factor for cerebrovascular events and has been shown to have a detrimental effect on outcome after stroke. We evaluated the influence of KD at admission and pre-existing diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) before thrombectomy for anterior circulation stroke on functional independence and mortality 90 days after stroke in this cross-sectional study.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included patients with acute ischemic stroke in the anterior circulation treated with thrombectomy at our hospital between June 2015 and May 2022. We analyzed clinical characteristics, laboratory values and pre-existing diagnosis of CKD. KD at admission was defined as glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Outcomes were defined as a modified Rankin Scale Score of 0-2 for functional independence and mortality at 90 days. We fitted multivariate regression analysis to examine the influence of pre-treatment KD and pre-diagnosed CKD on outcome.

RESULTS

Nine hundred fifty-three patients were included in this analysis (mean age 73.8 years, 54.2% female). KD was present in 31.8%, and patients with KD were older and more often female, presented more often with comorbidities such as arterial hypertension, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation, and were less often independent before the index stroke. In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, independence before the index stroke, diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, initial NIHSS, thrombolysis treatment, and recanalization outcome, KD on admission had no significant influence on functional independence 90 days after stroke, but predicted mortality with an odds ratio of 1.80 (95% CI 1.23-2.63, p = 0.003). This influence also persisted when controlling for pre-diagnosed CKD (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.05-2.43, p = 0.027).

DISCUSSION

KD might function as a surrogate parameter for comorbidity burden and thus increased risk of mortality in this cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

KD on admission is associated with an 80% higher risk of mortality at 90 days after stroke thrombectomy independent of cardiovascular risk factors and CKD awareness. KD on admission should not exclude patients from thrombectomy but might support prognostic evaluation.

Cellular therapies in older adults with hematological malignancies: A case-based, state-of-the-art review

Cellular therapies, including autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT), allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT), and chimeric antigen receptor- (CAR-) T cell therapies are essential treatment modalities for many hematological malignancies. Although their use in older adults has substantially increased within the past decades, cellular therapies represent intensive treatment approaches that exclude a large percentage of older adults due to comorbidities and frailty. Under- and overtreatment in older adults with hematologic malignancy is a challenge and many treatment decisions are influenced by chronologic age. The advent of efficient and well-tolerated newer treatment approaches for multiple myeloma has challenged the role of ASCT. In the modern era, there are no randomized clinical trials of transplant versus non-transplant strategies for patients ≥65 years. Nonetheless, ASCT is feasible for selected older patients and does not result in long-term compromise in quality of life. AlloHCT is the only curative approach for acute myeloid leukemia of intermediate and unfavourable risk but carries a significant risk for non-relapse mortality depending on comorbidities, general fitness, and transplant-specific characteristics, such as intensity of conditioning and donor choice. However, alloHCT is feasible in appropriately-selected older adults. Early referral for evaluation is strongly encouraged as this is the most obvious barrier. CAR-T cell therapies have shown unprecedented clinical efficacy and durability in relapsed and refractory diffuse large B cell lymphoma. Its use is well tolerated in older adults, although evidence comes from limited case numbers. Whether patients who are deemed unfit for ASCT qualify for CAR-T cell therapy remains elusive, but the tolerability and efficacy of CAR-T cell therapy appears promising, especially for older patients. The evidence from randomized trials is strong in favor of using a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) to reduce treatment-related toxicities and guide treatment intensity in the care for solid tumors; its use for evaluation of cellular therapies is less evidence-based. However, CGA can provide useful information on patients' fitness, resilient mechanisms, and reveal potential optimization strategies for compensating for vulnerabilities. In this narrative review, we will discuss key questions on cellular therapies in older adults based on illustrative patient cases.

Kidney function assessment in the geriatric population

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Kidney function declines with normal aging. But it also declines with the progression of some diseases. This review calls for a more nuanced interpretation of kidney function in the geriatric population, who may have frailty and comorbidities.

RECENT FINDINGS

GFR declines with healthy aging kidneys. Aging kidney changes include decreased cortical volume, senescent global glomerulosclerosis, and reduced nephron numbers. Yet normal aging is not associated with increased glomerular volume or single-nephron GFR. The prevalence of GFR less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 in the geriatric population is high. However, the decline in GFR with normal aging may not reflect true CKD without albuminuria. Although the risk of ESKD and mortality increases in all age groups when eGFR less than 45 ml/min/m 2 , there is no significant increased relative risk of ESKD and mortality in the geriatric population when eGFR 45-59 ml/min/m 2 in the absence of albuminuria. Innovative approaches are needed to better estimate GFR and define CKD in the geriatric population.

SUMMARY

The expected GFR decline in the geriatric population is consistent with normal aging kidney changes. To avoid CKD overdiagnosis and unnecessary referrals to nephrology for possible CKD, age-adapted definitions of CKD in the absence of albuminuria are needed.

Diagnostic Validity of Chronic Kidney Disease in Health Claims Data Over Time: Results from a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Germany

Purpose

The validity of ICD-10 diagnostic codes for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in health claims data has not been sufficiently studied in the general population and over time.

Patients and Methods

We used data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥70 years in Berlin, Germany. With estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as reference, we assessed the diagnostic validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive [PPV], and negative predictive values [NPV]) of different claims-based ICD-10 codes for CKD stages G3-5 (eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m²: ICD-10 N18.x-N19), G3 (eGFR 30-<60mL/min/1.73m²: N18.3), and G4-5 (eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m²: N18.4-5). We analysed trends over five study visits (2009-2019).

Results

We included data of 2068 participants at baseline (2009-2011) and 870 at follow-up 4 (2018-2019), of whom 784 (38.9%) and 440 (50.6%) had CKD G3-5, respectively. At baseline, sensitivity for CKD in claims data ranged from 0.25 (95%-confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.28) to 0.51 (95%-CI 0.48-0.55) for G3-5, depending on the included ICD-10 codes, 0.20 (95%-CI 0.18-0.24) for G3, and 0.36 (95%-CI 0.25-0.49) for G4-5. Over the course of 10 years, sensitivity increased by 0.17 to 0.29 in all groups. Specificity, PPVs, and NPVs remained mostly stable over time and ranged from 0.82-0.99, 0.47-0.89, and 0.66-0.98 across all study visits, respectively.

Conclusion

German claims data showed overall agreeable performance in identifying older adults with CKD, while differentiation between stages was limited. Our results suggest increasing sensitivity over time possibly attributable to improved CKD diagnosis and awareness.

Shear-Wave Elastography-Based Radiomics Nomogram for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Diabetic Kidney Disease

Background

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients have a high risk of suffering from cardiovascular disease (CVD), placing a heavy cost on the public health system. In this study, we intended to develop and validate a shear-wave elastography (SWE)-based radiomics nomogram for predicting the development of CVD in DKD patients. This approach allows extensive use of the valuable information contained in ultrasound images, thus helping clinicians to identify CVD in DKD patients.

Methods

Totally 337 and 145 patients constituted the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The radiomics features of the segmented kidney in ultrasound images were extracted and selected to generate the rad-score of each patient. These rad-score, as well as the predictors of risk of CVD occurrence from the clinical characteristics, were included in the multivariate analysis to develop a nomogram. It was further assessed in the training and validation cohorts.

Results

Patients with CVD accounted for 30.9% (104/337) in the training cohort and 31.0% (45/145) in the validation cohort. The rad-score was calculated for each patient using 6 features extracted from the ultrasound images. The radiomics nomogram was built with the rad-score, age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). It was superior to the clinical nomogram developed without the rad-score and demonstrated promising discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility in both training and validation cohorts.

Conclusion

We developed and validated an SWE-based radiomics nomogram to predict CVD risk in patients with DKD. The model was demonstrated to have a promising prediction performance, showing its potential to identify CVD in DKD patients and assist decision-making for appropriate early intervention.

Association Between Chinese Visceral Adipose Index and Albuminuria in Chinese Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

To explore the correlation between Chinese visceral adipose index (CVAI) and urinary microalbumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) and urinary albumin, and whether there is any difference in correlation between Han and Tujia ethnicity.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted in Changde, Hunan, China from May 2021 to December 2021. Biochemical indicators including anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, blood glucose, blood lipids, and UACR of the participants were measured. Univariate analysis, multivariate analyses and multinomial logistic regression analysis were carried out to assess the association between CVAI and albuminuria. In addition, curve fitting and threshold effect analysis were used to explore the nonlinear association between CVAI and albuminuria, and to observe whether there were ethnic differences in this association.

Results

A total of 2026 adult residents were enrolled in this study, 500 of whom had albuminuria. Population-standardized prevalence of albuminuria is 19.06%. In the multivariable model adjusted for confounding factors, the odds ratio (OR) of albuminuria for pre-unit increase of CVAI and pre-SD increase of CVAI were 1.007 (1.003-1.010) and 1.298 (1.127-1.496), respectively. Multinomial logistic regression analysis confirmed the robustness and consistency of the results.The generalized additive model showed that CVAI and albuminuria had a nonlinear relationship with inflection point at 97.201 using the threshold effect. Compared with Han ethnic groups, the threshold between CVAI and albuminuria in Tujia people moved backward. The thresholds were 159.785 and 98.527, respectively.

Conclusion

There was a positive nonlinear dose-response relationship between increased CVAI and higher levels of albuminuria. Maintaining appropriate CVAI levels may be important for the prevention of albuminuria.

Association of kidney function and albuminuria with frailty worsening and death in very old adults

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Studies analysing the association of albuminuria and prevalent frailty in community-dwelling very old adults are scarce and lack information on incident frailty. We investigated the association of kidney function decline and increase of albuminuria with frailty worsening or death in very old adults.

DESIGN

Longitudinal analyses with biennial visits of the Berlin Initiative (cohort) Study and a frailty follow-up of 2.1 years.

SETTING/SUBJECTS

1,076 participants with a mean age of 84.3 (5.6) years of whom 54% were female.

METHODS

Partial proportional odds models were used to assess the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and/or albuminuria (albumin creatinine ratio, ACR) with frailty worsening or death.

RESULTS

At frailty baseline, 1,076 participants with an eGFR of 50 (13) ml/min/1.73 m2, 48% being prefrail and 31% frail were included. After median 2.1 years, 960 (90%) participants had valid information on frailty transition: 187 (17.5%) worsened and 111 (10.3%) died. In the multivariable model, the odds of frailty worsening for participants with albuminuria in combination with eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 were elevated [OR (95% CI): 2.47 (1.41-4.31)] compared to participants without albuminuria and eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 as there was a rapid eGFR decline of ≥3 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year [1.55 (1.04-2.33)] and albuminuria trajectories six years prior [1.53 (1.11-2.10)] to frailty baseline. The odds of death for each exposure were even higher.

CONCLUSIONS

In older adults, advanced stages of CKD and albuminuria alone were associated with 2-fold odds of frailty worsening independent of death.

Associations between plasma metal levels and mild renal impairment in the general population of Southern China

BACKGROUND

Metal exposure were assumed to be closely related with declined renal function, but the conclusions were controversial. We employed diverse statistical models and assessed the association between metal mixture exposure and mild renal impairment.

METHODS

A total of 13 plasma metals were measured in 896 general population from Southern China. Subjects with estimated glomerular filtration rate within 60-89 ml/min/1.73 m² and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio <30 mg/g creatinine were defined as mild renal impairment (MRI).

RESULTS

About 31.47 % participants showed MRI. In the multivariate logistic regression models, compared with the first quartile, high levels of arsenic and molybdenum (the fourth quartile) were both associated with MRI, and the ORs (95 % CI) were 1.68 (1.05, 2.68) and 2.21 (1.40, 3.48), respectively. Their predominant roles were identified by the weighted quantile regression (WQS). Besides, restricted cubic spline analysis verified the relationship between molybdenum level and increased MRI risk in a linear and dose-response manner.

CONCLUSION

High levels of arsenic and molybdenum might be independent risk factors of MRI, and they showed combined effect. Our findings might provide vigorous evidence in preventing mild decline in renal function.

Assessment of Cystatin C Level for Risk Stratification in Adults With Chronic Kidney Disease

Importance

Kidney function is usually estimated from serum creatinine level, whereas an alternative glomerular filtration marker (cystatin C level) associates more closely with future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality.

Objectives

To evaluate whether testing concordance between estimated glomerular filtration rates based on cystatin C (eGFRcys) and creatinine (eGFRcr) levels would improve risk stratification for future outcomes and whether estimations differ by age.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A prospective population-based cohort study (UK Biobank), with participants recruited between 2006-2010 with median follow-up of 11.5 (IQR, 10.8-12.2) years; data were collected until August 31, 2020. Participants had eGFRcr greater than or equal to 45 mL/min/1.73 m2, albuminuria (albumin <30 mg/g), and no preexisting CVD or kidney failure.

Exposures

Chronic kidney disease status was categorized by concordance between eGFRcr and eGFRcys across the threshold for hronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis (60 mL/min/1.73 m2).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Ten-year probabilities of CVD, mortality, and kidney failure were assessed according to CKD status. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models tested associations between CVD and mortality. Area under the receiving operating curve tested discrimination of eGFRcr and eGFRcys for CVD and mortality. The Net Reclassification Index assessed the usefulness of eGFRcr and eGFRcys for CVD risk stratification. Analyses were stratified by older (age 65-73 years) and younger (age <65 years) age.

Results

There were 428 402 participants: median age was 57 (IQR, 50-63) years and 237 173 (55.4%) were women. Among 76 629 older participants, there were 9335 deaths and 5205 CVD events. Among 351 773 younger participants, there were 14 776 deaths and 9328 CVD events. The 10-year probability of kidney failure was less than 0.1%. Regardless of the eGFRcr, the 10-year probabilities of CVD and mortality were low when eGFRcys was greater than or equal to 60 mL/min/1.73 m2; conversely, with eGFRcys less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, 10-year risks were nearly doubled in older adults and more than doubled in younger adults. Use of eGFRcys better discriminated CVD and mortality risk than eGFRcr. Across a 7.5% 10-year risk threshold for CVD, eGFRcys improved case Net Reclassification Index by 0.7% (95% CI, 0.6%-0.8%) in older people and 0.7% (95% CI, 0.7%-0.8%) in younger people; eGFRcr did not add to CVD risk estimation.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that eGFRcr 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 includes a proportion of individuals at low risk and fails to capture a substantial proportion of individuals at high-risk for CVD and mortality. The eGFRcys appears to be more sensitive and specific for CVD and mortality risks in mild CKD.

Cystatin C-based eGFR predicts cardiovascular disease in patients with overweight/obesity and hyperglycemia

Background

Although many clinical parameters have been identified as predictors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) development in the general population, the accurate predictor for CVD in patients with obesity is still unknown.

Objective

The study aimed to explore an additional risk factor and predictor for CVD in patients with overweight/obesity considering the interaction of obesity-related pathophysiology.

Methods

The Japan Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome study, a multicenter prospective study, enrolled 787 outpatients, of which 318 eligible patients were analyzed. Patients with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels ≥6.11 and < 6.11 mmol/L were considered to have high FPG (HFPG) and normal FPG (NFPG), respectively. Thirty-six patients who developed CVD during the 5 years follow-up were assigned to the CVD group.

Results

Cox's proportional hazards model revealed no significant association between CVD and cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys) or creatinine-based eGFR (eGFRcr) in the NFPG group. In the HFPG group, lower eGFRcys, but not eGFRcr, was significantly associated with CVD development. A generalized linear mixed model demonstrated greater reduction in eGFRcys levels over time with HFPG than with NFPG. Although the CVD group showed gradual reduction in eGFRcys levels, the non-CVD group-matched using propensity scores-did not show a decline in eGFRcys levels.

Conclusions

Lower eGFRcys levels may be more accurate than eGFRcr in predicting CVD development in patients with overweight/obesity and hyperglycemia. Furthermore, eGFRcys reduction over time is associated with CVD development.

Clinical Trial Registry Number

UMIN000000559.

Role of predictable biomarkers in early detection of cardiovascular events in Chronic Kidney Disease III and IV

This comes about because of a lack of predicted biomarkers in the risk analysis of CVD events in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. The present study aimed to determine the clinical utility of independent, predictable biomarkers such as serum creatinine, estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), high sensitive C-Reactive protein (hsCRP), fibrinogen and lipid profile as early predictors of CVD in CKD at stage III/IV.

Methods. This is a case-control study that includes a sample size of 100 patients of cases and 100 patients of controls who were recruited from November 2020 to April 2021, from the Nephrology department of the Visakhapatnam tertiary care teaching hospital, and present with chronic kidney disease – stage III/IV. The subjects’ general conditions (age, gender, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and smoking history); underlying diseases (coronary heart disease and diabetes mellitus) were recorded. Fasting venous blood samples were collected under aseptic conditions from the study group after taking informed consent. The measurement of serum creatinine was performed by modification of kinetic Jaffe reaction. The Cockcroft-Gault equation was used to calculate eGFR in both cases and controls. CRP testing was done with a Cobas C311 analyzer, using immunoturbidimetric assay. The Fibroquant kit from Tulip was employed to measure fibrinogen levels in blood samples, and enzymatic methods were applied for lipid profile analysis.

Results. In this study, higher mean values of hsCRP (34.28 mg/dl), increased serum creatinine levels (2.876 mg/dl), reduced eGFR (28.37 mls/min), high levels of serum fibrinogen (291.6 mg/dl), and cholesterol (214.5 mg/dl), HDL (28.34 mg/dl), TG (162.1 mg/dl), VLDL (32.41 mg/dl) and LDL (153.77 mg/dl) were found to be independent predictors of assessment of CV events in patients with CKD stages III and IV as determined by Chi-square test.

Conclusion. A prompt and accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk in CKD patients would enable more aggressive and focused treatment of the individuals who are most in need of preventive interventions to decrease incident rates.

Associations of serum cystatin C and its change with new-onset cardiovascular disease in Chinese general population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relation of serum cystatin C with new-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains uncertain. We aimed to evaluate the prospective associations of serum cystatin C and its change with new-onset CVD in Chinese general population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 7064 participants free of CVD at baseline were enrolled from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The change in serum cystatin C was calculated as cystatin C concentration at 2015 wave minus that at baseline (2011 wave). The primary outcome was new-onset CVD, defined as self-reported physician-diagnosed heart disease, stroke, or both during follow-up. The secondary outcomes were new-onset heart disease, and new-onset stroke. During a median follow-up duration of 7.0 years, a total of 1116 (15.8%) subjects developed new-onset CVD. Overall, after the adjustments for eGFR and other important covariates, there was a positive association between serum cystatin C and new-onset CVD (per SD mg/L increment; adjusted HR, 1.13; 95%CI: 1.08,1.18). When cystatin C was assessed as quintiles, the adjusted HRs for participants in the second, third, fourth and fifth quintiles were 1.15 (95%CI: 0.93, 1.41), 1.37 (95%CI: 1.11, 1.68), 1.47 (95%CI: 1.19, 1.81), and 2.03 (95%CI: 1.60, 2.56), respectively, compared with those in quintile 1 (P for trend<0.001). Furthermore, there was a positive association between the increase in cystatin C concentration and the subsequent new-onset CVD (per SD mg/L increment; adjusted HR, 1.14; 95%CI: 1.02,1.27).

CONCLUSION

Both serum cystatin C and its increase were positively associated with new-onset CVD among Chinese general population.

The relevance of geriatric assessments on the association between chronic kidney disease stages and mortality among older people: a secondary analysis of a multicentre cohort study

Background

age-adapted definition of chronic kidney disease (CKD) does not take individual risk factors into account. We aimed at investigating whether functional impairments influence CKD stage at which mortality increases among older people.

Methods

our series consisted of 2,372 outpatients aged 75 years or more enrolled in a multicentre international prospective cohort study. The study outcome was 24-month mortality. Kidney function was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). Geriatric assessments included handgrip strength, short physical performance battery (SPPB), cognitive impairment, dependency in basic activities of daily living (BADL) and risk of malnutrition. Analysis was carried out by Cox regression, before and after stratification by individual functional impairments. Survival trees including kidney function and functional impairments were also investigated, and their predictivity assessed by C-index.

Results

overall, mortality was found to increase starting from eGFR = 30–44.9 ml/min/1.73 m² (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.81–5.95) to ACR = 30–300 mg/g (HR = 1.96, 95%CI = 1.23–3.10). However, in survival trees, an increased risk of mortality was observed among patients with impaired handgrip and eGFR = 45–59.9 ml/min/1.73 m², as well as patients with ACR < 30 mg/g and impaired handgrip and SPPB. Survival tree leaf node membership had greater predictive accuracy (C-index = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.78–0.84 for the eGFR survival tree and C-index = 0.77, 95%CI = 0.71–0.81 for the ACR survival tree) in comparison with that of individual measures of kidney function.

Conclusions

physical performance helps to identify a proportion of patients at an increased risk of mortality despite a mild–moderate impairment in kidney function and improves predictive accuracy of individual measures of kidney function.

Prediction and Risk Stratification of Cardiovascular Disease in Diabetic Kidney Disease Patients

Background

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients are facing an extremely high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is a major cause of death for DKD patients. We aimed to build a deep learning model to predict CVD risk among DKD patients and perform risk stratifying, which could help them perform early intervention and improve personal health management.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess the risk of the occurrence of composite cardiovascular disease, which includes coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, congestive heart failure, and peripheral artery disease, in DKD patients. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to perform the variable selection. A deep learning-based survival model called DeepSurv, based on a feed-forward neural network was developed to predict CVD risk among DKD patients. We compared the model performance with the conventional Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model and the Random survival forest (RSF) model using the concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC), and integrated Brier scores (IBS).

Results

We recruited 890 patients diagnosed with DKD in this retrospective study. During a median follow-up of 10.4 months, there are 289 patients who sustained a subsequent CVD. Seven variables, including age, high density lipoprotein (HDL), hemoglobin (Hb), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking status, 24 h urinary protein excretion, and total cholesterol (TC), chosen by LASSO regression were used to develop the predictive model. The DeepSurv model showed the best performance, achieved a C-index of 0.767(95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.717–0.817), AUC of 0.780(95%CI: 0.721–0.839), and IBS of 0.067 in the validation set. Then we used the cut-off value determined by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve to divide the patients into different risk groups. Moreover, the DeepSurv model was also applied to develop an online calculation tool for patients to conduct risk monitoring.

Conclusion

A deep-learning-based predictive model using seven clinical variables can effectively predict CVD risk among DKD patients and perform risk stratification. An online calculator allows its easy implementation.

Combined Effects of Chronic Kidney Disease and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease on the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Diabetes

Background: We investigated the combined effect of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods: Data were obtained from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Patients with diabetes who participated in health screenings from 2009 to 2011 were included. The fatty liver index (FLI) was used as a surrogate marker for NAFLD. Results: During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 40,863 incidents of myocardial infarction (MI), 58,427 strokes, and 116,977 deaths were reported in 1,607,232 patients with type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for conventional risk factors, patients with CKD and NAFLD showed the highest risk of MI and stroke (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.49; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42–1.57 and stroke, HR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.41–1.54, respectively) compared with those without either CKD or NAFLD. Both overall and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the CKD/NAFLD group compared with other groups (HR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.94–2.06, and HR = 2.20; 95% CI: 2.07–2.35, respectively). Advanced liver fibrosis was significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD in patients with NAFLD. Proteinuria was significantly associated with incidence of CVD events in patients with CKD. Conclusions: The combination of CKD and NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVD and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Close monitoring and appropriate management of CKD and NAFLD may be warranted to prevent CVD in these patients.

The relationship between urinary albumin to creatinine ratio and all-cause mortality in the elderly population in the Chinese community: a 10-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

In patients with diabetes and hypertension, proteinuria is independently associated with all-cause death. However, in the general population, urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) is less used to predict all-cause mortality. When the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio is within the normal range (UACR< 30 mg/g), the clinical relevance of an increased urinary albumin excretion rate is still debated. We studied the relationship between UACR and all-cause mortality in community populations, and compared UACR groups within the normal range.

METHODS

The participants were the inhabitants from the Wanshoulu community in Beijing, China. The average age is 71.48 years, and the proportion of women is 60.1%. A total of 2148 people completed random urine samples to determine the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). The subjects were divided into three groups according to UACR: Group 1 (UACR< 10 mg/g), Group 2 (10 mg/g < UACR< 30 mg/g), Group 3 (UACR> 30 mg/g). We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression model to verify the relationship between UACR and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

At an average follow-up of 9.87 years (718,407.3 years), the total mortality rate were 183.4/1000. In the Cox proportional hazards model, after adjusting for possible confounders, those with normal high-value UACR (group 2) showed a higher all-cause mortality than those with normal low-value UACR (group 1) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.289, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.002 ~ 1.659 for all-cause mortality]. Those with proteinuria (group 3) showed a higher all-cause mortality than those with normal low-value UACR (group 1) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.394, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.020 ~ 1.905 for all-cause mortality].

CONCLUSION

Urinary albumin to creatinine ratio is an important risk factor for all-cause death in community population. Even if it is within the normal range (UACR< 30 mg/g), it occurs in people with high normal value (10 mg/g < UACR< 30 mg/g), the risk of all-cause death will also increase.

Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1

Zinc-alpha 2-glycoprotein (AZGP1) is a serum protein with postulated functions in metabolism, cancer and cardiovascular disease. We developed new prediction models for mortality or cardiovascular events investigating the predictive potential of serum AZGP1 in a community-based cohort of older adults. We measured AZGP1 (μg/ml) in stored serum samples of 930 individuals of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective, population-based cohort of adults aged ≥ 70. We determined the prognostic potential of 20 knowledge-based predictors including AZGP1 for the outcomes of mortality or the composite endpoint of death and cardiovascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)) using Cox models; their model fit was evaluated with calibration plots, goodness-of-fit tests and c-indices. During median follow-up of 48.3 months, 70 incident strokes, 38 incident MI and 234 deaths occurred. We found no associations or correlations between AZGP1 and other candidate variables. After multivariable Cox regression with backward-selection AZGP1 remained in both models for mortality (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.24–0.80) and for the composite endpoint (HR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.23–0.82). Within newly built prediction models, we found that increased AZGP1 levels were predictive for lower risk of mortality and the composite endpoint in older adults. AZGP1 as a predictor warrants further validation in older adults.