Variability of body weight and health outcomes in the Framingham population

Lessons learned from patients' weight-related medical encounters: Results from 34 interviews

OBJECTIVES

How to best care for larger-bodied patients is a complicated issue in modern medicine. The present study seeks to inform current medical practices to ensure the delivery of high-quality and evidence-based care through the examination of higher-weight patients' experiences with weight-related care.

METHODS

Higher-weight patients (N = 34) completed semi-structured interviews about their experiences and recommendations for weight-related care. Interviews were coded by two independent coders and harmonized. Findings were organized into broad domains of 1) negative care experiences and 2) positive care experiences and recommendations.

RESULTS

Patients described a range of negative care experiences, including stigmatization from providers (e.g., rude, attacking, or insulting communication about weight), while concurrently expressing insufficient weight management support from providers. Positive care experiences and recommendations included patient-centered care (e.g., physician humility and empathy) and attending to the patient's weight, which conveyed concern for the patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reflect patients' ambivalent attitudes toward weight-related care: while weight-focused provider communication can be highly stigmatizing, patients simultaneously desire more weight-management support from providers.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Providers who wish to move their practices from a weight-loss focus to one targeting healthy living should provide a rationale for these shifts to inform patients' perceptions of high-quality care.

Higher intraindividual variability of body mass index is associated with elevated risk of COVID-19 related hospitalization and post-COVID conditions

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases are risk factors for COVID-19 severity. The extent that cardiometabolic health represents a modifiable factor to mitigate the short- and long-term consequences from SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Our objective was to evaluate the associations between intraindividual variability of cardiometabolic health indicators and COVID-19 related hospitalizations and post-COVID conditions (PCC) among a relatively healthy population.

METHODS

This retrospective, multi-site cohort study was a post-hoc analysis among individuals with cardiometabolic health data collected during routine blood donation visits in 24 US states (2009-2018) and who responded to COVID-19 questionnaires (2021-2023). Intraindividual variability of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic), total circulating cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) were defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) across all available donation timepoints (ranging from 3 to 74); participants were categorized into CV quartiles. Associations were evaluated by multivariable binomial regressions.

RESULTS

Overall, 3344 participants provided 42,090 donations (median 9 [IQR 5, 17]). The median age was 48 years (38, 56) at the first study donation. 1.2% (N = 40) were hospitalized due to COVID-19 and 15.5% (N = 519) had PCC. Higher BMI variability was associated with greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (4th quartile aRR 4.15 [95% CI 1.31, 13.11], p = 0.02; 3rd quartile aRR 3.41 [95% CI 1.09, 10.69], p = 0.04). Participants with higher variability of BMI had greater risk of PCC (4th quartile aRR 1.29 [95% CI 1.02, 1.64]; p = 0.04). Intraindividual variability of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and total circulating cholesterol were not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or PCC risk (all p > 0.05). From causal mediation analysis, the association between the highest quartiles of BMI variability and PCC was not mediated by hospitalization (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intraindividual variability of BMI was associated with COVID-19 hospitalization and PCC risk. Our findings underscore the need for further elucidating mechanisms that explain these associations and importance for consistent maintenance of body weight.

Association of body mass index and blood pressure variability with 10-year mortality and renal disease progression in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Variability in biological parameters may be associated with adverse outcomes. The aim of the study was to determine whether variability in body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure is associated with all-cause, cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality or with renal disease progression in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The diabetes database was accessed, and all the information on patient visits (consultations) carried out in the study period (1 January 2008-31 December 2019) was extracted and linked to the laboratory database and the mortality register.

RESULTS

The total number of patients included in the study population was 26,261, of whom 54.4% were male. Median (interquartile range, IQR) age was 60.2 (51.8-68.3) years. The coefficient of variability of BMI was independently associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular, but not cancer, mortality. Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was associated with increased all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality as well as with renal progression. Variability in systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in bivariate, but not in multivariate, analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in BMI was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular, but not cancer, mortality in a large real-world contemporary population. Our results also confirm the association of HbA1c with increased all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality as well as with renal progression.

An interpretable predictive deep learning platform for pediatric metabolic diseases

OBJECTIVES

Metabolic disease in children is increasing worldwide and predisposes a wide array of chronic comorbid conditions with severe impacts on quality of life. Tools for early detection are needed to promptly intervene to prevent or slow the development of these long-term complications.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

No clinically available tools are currently in widespread use that can predict the onset of metabolic diseases in pediatric patients. Here, we use interpretable deep learning, leveraging longitudinal clinical measurements, demographical data, and diagnosis codes from electronic health record data from a large integrated health system to predict the onset of prediabetes, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and metabolic syndrome in pediatric cohorts.

RESULTS

The cohort included 49 517 children with overweight or obesity aged 2-18 (54.9% male, 73% Caucasian), with a median follow-up time of 7.5 years and mean body mass index (BMI) percentile of 88.6%. Our model demonstrated area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) accuracies up to 0.87, 0.79, and 0.79 for predicting T2D, metabolic syndrome, and prediabetes, respectively. Whereas most risk calculators use only recently available data, incorporating longitudinal data improved AUCs by 13.04%, 11.48%, and 11.67% for T2D, syndrome, and prediabetes, respectively, versus models using the most recent BMI (P < 2.2 × 10-16).

DISCUSSION

Despite most risk calculators using only the most recent data, incorporating longitudinal data improved the model accuracies because utilizing trajectories provides a more comprehensive characterization of the patient's health history. Our interpretable model indicated that BMI trajectories were consistently identified as one of the most influential features for prediction, highlighting the advantages of incorporating longitudinal data when available.

High Variability of Body Mass Index Is Independently Associated With Incident Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99 368 White participants with ≥3 BMI measures during >2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized SD and coefficient of variation. The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, adjusting for confounding factors and participant-specific rate of BMI change. Higher BMI variability measured in both SD and coefficient of variation was significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: hazard ratio [HR], 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08], P<0.0001; coefficient of variation: HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10], P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence.

BMI-Stratified Exploration of the 'Obesity Paradox': Heart Failure Perspectives from a Large German Insurance Database

Background: The global rise of obesity and its association with cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) have highlighted its connection to chronic heart failure (CHF). Paradoxically, obese CHF patients often experience better outcomes, a phenomenon known as the 'obesity paradox'. This study evaluated the 'obesity paradox' within a large cohort in Germany and explored how varying degrees of obesity affect HF outcome. Methods: Anonymized health claims data from the largest German insurer (AOK) for the years 2014-2015 were utilized to analyze 88,247 patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction. This analysis encompassed baseline characteristics, comorbidities, interventions, complications, and long-term outcomes, including overall survival, freedom from CHF, and CHF-related rehospitalization. Patients were categorized based on body mass index. Results: Obese patients encompassed 21.3% of our cohort (median age 68.69 years); they exhibited a higher prevalence of CVRF (p < 0.001) and comorbidities than non-obese patients (median age 70.69 years). Short-term outcomes revealed lower complication rates and mortality (p < 0.001) in obese compared to non-obese patients. Kaplan-Meier estimations for long-term analysis illustrated increased incidences of CHF and rehospitalization rates among the obese, yet with lower overall mortality. Multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated that obese individuals faced a higher risk of developing CHF and being rehospitalized due to CHF but demonstrated better overall survival for those classified as having low-level obesity (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This study underscores favorable short-term outcomes among obese individuals. The 'obesity paradox' was confirmed, with more frequent CHF cases and rehospitalizations in the long term, alongside better overall survival for certain degrees of obesity.

Long-Term Body Mass Index Variability and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes

Importance

Body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is a commonly used estimate of obesity, which is a complex trait affected by genetic and lifestyle factors. Marked weight gain and loss could be associated with adverse biological processes.

Objective

To evaluate the association between BMI variability and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in 2 distinct cohorts.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP) between 2011 and 2018 and participants in the UK Biobank (UKB) enrolled between 2006 and 2010. Participants were followed up for a median of 3.8 (5th-95th percentile, 3.5) years. Participants with baseline CVD or cancer were excluded. Data were analyzed from September 2022 and September 2023.

Exposure

BMI variability was calculated by the retrospective SD and coefficient of variation (CV) using multiple clinical BMI measurements up to the baseline.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was incident composite CVD events (incident nonfatal myocardial infarction, acute ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death), assessed using Cox proportional hazards modeling after adjustment for CVD risk factors, including age, sex, mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes status, and statin use. Secondary analysis assessed whether associations were dependent on the polygenic score of BMI.

Results

Among 92 363 US veterans in the MVP cohort (81 675 [88%] male; mean [SD] age, 56.7 [14.1] years), there were 9695 Hispanic participants, 22 488 non-Hispanic Black participants, and 60 180 non-Hispanic White participants. A total of 4811 composite CVD events were observed from 2011 to 2018. The CV of BMI was associated with 16% higher risk for composite CVD across all groups (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.19). These associations were unchanged among subgroups and after adjustment for the polygenic score of BMI. The UKB cohort included 65 047 individuals (mean [SD] age, 57.30 (7.77) years; 38 065 [59%] female) and had 6934 composite CVD events. Each 1-SD increase in BMI variability in the UKB cohort was associated with 8% increased risk of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that among US veterans, higher BMI variability was a significant risk marker associated with adverse cardiovascular events independent of mean BMI across major racial and ethnic groups. Results were consistent in the UKB for the cardiovascular death end point. Further studies should investigate the phenotype of high BMI variability.

Associations of variability in body mass index with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population: A systematic review

In today's world, high variability of body mass index (BMI) is known as a significant global health problem that can lead to many negative impacts on the cardiovascular system, including atrial fibrillation (AF) and coronary heart disease. The current systematic review aims to elucidate the effect of variability in BMI on the risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Four databases, including PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE, and CENTRAL, were searched. All related articles up to 10 June 2022, were obtained. Titles, abstracts, and full texts were reviewed. After screening abstracts and full texts, four articles were included in our study. In these four cohort studies, 7,038,873 participants from the USA and South Korea were involved. These articles generally considered the BMI and outcomes including cardiovascular disease, AF, and coronary heart disease. All these articles reported an association between the variability of BMI and increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Due to the negative impact of the high variability of BMI on the risk of cardiovascular outcomes, health policymakers and practitioners should pay more attention to the significant role of BMI in health problems and physicians might better check the variability of BMI visits to visit.

Changes in body mass index and waist circumference and heart failure in type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background

To determine the association of unintentional changes in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with the risk of heart failure (HF) among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods

This was a randomized controlled trial (the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes [ACCORD] study), with a double 2×2 factorial design conducted at 77 clinical centers across the United States and Canada. In total, the study comprised 10,251 patients with T2DM and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or at a high risk of CVD. The outcome of interest in the present analysis was incident HF, defined as the first hospitalization event for HF or death due to HF. Hospitalization for HF was based on documented clinical and radiological evidence. Death due to HF was based on clinical, radiological, or postmortem evidence of HF, with an absence of an acute ischemic event according to clinical or postmortem evidence.

Results

Participants with class III obesity had the smallest BMI and WC changes, followed by those with normal weight, overweight, class I obesity, and class II obesity. Increasing BMI (hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation increase, 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.45) and WC (1.27; 1.10-1.47) were significantly associated with a higher risk of HF. The relationship between BMI and WC changes and HF formed a J-shaped curve, while stable BMI and WC were associated with lower risks of HF. Compared with participants in the first tertiles of BMI and WC change, those in the third tertiles had HRs of 1.41 (95% CI, 1.07-1.45) and 1.48 (1.12-1.95), respectively.

Conclusion

In conclusion, our findings suggest a noteworthy association between BMI and WC changes among adults with T2DM in HF. We observed a distinctive J-shaped curve in this relationship, indicating that participants with both low and high BMI and WC changes were more susceptible to developing HF.

Trial registration

http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000620.

Association between weight variability, weight change and clinical outcomes in hypertension

Objective

The effect of body weight variability (BWV) and body weight change (BWC) in high-risk individuals with hypertension, but without diabetes mellitus (DM) remains unclear. We examined the effect of BWV and BWC on the primary outcome [the composite of myocardial infarction (MI), other acute coronary syndromes, stroke, acute decompensated heart failure (HF), or cardiovascular (CV) death] and all-cause mortality in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT).

Methods

In this post-hoc analysis, we used multivariate Cox regression models to examine the risk associated with BWV and BWC for the primary outcome in SPRINT. BWV was defined as the intra-individual average successive variability (ASV). BWC was defined as baseline weight minus final weight.

Results

A total of 8714 SPRINT participants (mean age 67.8 ± 9.4 years, 35.1 % women, 58.9 % Whites) with available data on body weight were included. The median follow-up was about 3.9 years (IQR, 3.3-4.4). In multivariable-adjusted Cox models, each 1 unit standard deviation (SD) of BWV was significantly associated with a higher risk for the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, HF, MI, and stroke [HR(95 % CI)]: 1.13 (1.07-1.19; p < 0.0001), 1.22 (1.14-1.30; p < 0.0001), 1.16 (1.07-1.26; p < 0.001), 1.10 (1.00-1.20; p = 0.047), and 1.15 (1.05-1.27; p = 0.005), respectively. Similarly, each 1 unit SD of BWC was significantly associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, MI, and HF: 1.11(1.02-1.21; p = 0.017), 1.44 (1.26-1.65; p < 0.0001), 1.16 (1.01-1.32; p = 0.041) and 1.19 (1.02-1.40; p = 0.031) respectively. However, there was no significant association with CV death (for both BWV and BWC) or stroke (BWC).

Conclusion

In high-risk hypertension, BWV and BWC were both associated with higher risk of the primary outcome and all-cause mortality. These results further stress the clinical importance of sustained weight loss and minimizing fluctuations in weight in hypertension.

Association Between Body Weight Changes and Subsequent Development of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Population-Based Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Body weight is a modifiable demographic factor. Although the association of body mass index (BMI) categories with sudden cardiac death was reported, dynamic changes of BMI and the risk of cardiac arrest remain unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the association between the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) occurrence within a year and the percent changes of BMI preceding the OHCA.

METHODS

This population-based nested case-control study used the National Health Insurance Service Data of Korea. In all, 24,465 patients with non-traumatic OHCA between 2010 and 2018, who underwent national health check-up twice (one within a year and the other within 2-4 years before OHCA) and 32,434 controls without OHCA, were matched for age and sex. The association between the risk of OHCA and BMI percent change stratified by sex was investigated.

RESULTS

All the BMI percent changes of ≥ 5% significantly increased the OHCA occurrence with a reverse J-shaped association. Compared to individuals with a stable weight, those with severe (> 15%) BMI decrease had the highest odds ratio (OR) of 4.29 (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 3.72-4.95) for OHCA occurrence followed by those with moderate (10-15%) weight loss (OR, 2.80; 95% CI, 2.55-3.08) and those with severe (> 15%) weigh gain (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.96-2.57), respectively. The impact of weight loss on the cardiac arrest occurrence was more prominent in men, while the impact of weight gain was more prominent in women.

CONCLUSION

Significant weight changes increase the risk of OHCA within a year with a reverse J-shaped association. Significant weight loss might be a warning sign for OHCA especially for men.

Description of patients with eating disorders by general practitioners: a cohort study and focus on co-management with depression

BACKGROUND

International guidelines often state that general practitioners (GPs) provide early management for most patients with eating disorders (EDs). GP management of EDs has not been studied in France. Depressive disorders are often a comorbidity of EDs. The aims of this study were to describe in France the characteristics of people with all subcategories of EDs (Anorexia Nervosa, Bulimia Nervosa, ED Not Otherwise Specified) managed by their GPs and to study the management temporality between depression and all subcategories of EDs.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of patients with EDs visiting French GPs. Data collected from 1994 through 2009 were extracted from the French society of general electronic health record. A descriptive analysis of the population focused on depression, medication such as antidepressants and anxiolytics, and the management temporality between depression and EDs.

RESULTS

1310 patients aged 8 years or older were seen at least once for an ED by a GP participating in the database out of 355,848 patients, with a prevalence rate of 0.3%. They had a mean age of 35.19 years, 82.67% were women. 41.6% had anorexia nervosa, 26.4% bulimia nervosa, and 32% an ED not otherwise specified. Overall, 32.3% had been managed at least once for depression, and 18.4% had been prescribed an antidepressant of any type at least once. Benzodiazepines had been prescribed at least once for 73.9% of the patients treated for depression. Patients with an ED seen regularly by their GP ("during" profile) received care for depression more frequently than those with other profiles. 60.9% had a single visit with the participating GP for their ED Treatment and management for depression did not precede care for EDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Data extracted from the French society of general practice were the only one available in France in primary care about EDs and our study was the only one on this topic. The frequency of visits for EDs was very low in our general practice-based sample. Depressive disorders were a frequent comorbidity of EDs. GPs could manage common early signs of depression and EDs, especially if they improved their communication skills and developed collaborative professional management.

High body weight variability is associated with increased risk of depression: a nationwide cohort study in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Body weight variability (BWV) negatively affects the incidence and outcomes of various diseases, but the nature of the association between BWV and depression remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that BWV is associated with the risk of new-onset depression.

METHODS

Data from a nationwide population-based cohort in the Korean National Health Insurance Service database were analyzed for 6 598 570 adults with no history of depression and reports of at least three health examinations. BWV was estimated using variability independent of the mean indices and divided into quartiles (Q1 lowest, Q4 highest BWV). Cox proportional hazard models were applied to assess the risk of depression according to the quartile of BWV.

RESULTS

The incident rate for depression from Q1 to Q4 of BWV was 20.7, 20.3, 20.8, and 22.2 per 1000 person-years, respectively. BWV, especially high BWV, was associated with an increased risk of depression after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, income, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. The hazard ratio (HR) of new-onset depression was highest in Q4 relative to Q1 in the total population (HR 1.12, p < 0.0001) and was higher in women than in men (HR 1.72 v. 1.16, p < 0.0001). In stratified analyses, regardless of obesity or weight change status at baseline, the risk of depression was increased when bodyweight fluctuated highly during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

High BWV was associated with an increased risk of depression. Further studies need to evaluate the role of high BWV with respect to the onset of depression.

High Variability of Body Mass Index Independently Associated with Incident Heart Failure

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, including HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF.

Methods

In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99,368 White (British, Irish, and any other white background) participants with ≥ 3 BMI measures during > 2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV). The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, and adjusted for age, sex, smoking history, alcohol consumption, diabetes, hypertension, history of heart attack, stroke, atrial fibrillation, lipids, estimated glomerular filtration rate and mean BMI per individual.

Results

In the fully adjusted model, higher BMI variability measured in both SD and CV were significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.02 - 1.07, p = 0.0002; CV: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 - 1.09, p < 0.0001).

Conclusions

Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence. Integration of long-term BMI and other routinely measured health factors may improve risk prediction of HF and other cardiovascular outcomes.

Weight variability and diabetes complications

Body weight is a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). More recently, weight variability, i.e. the oscillation of body weight over time, has also been suggested to be independently associated with development of CVD and mortality in subjects without diabetes and in people with both type 1 and type 2 diabetes (T2D). In T2D, weight variability emerged as one of the most relevant risk factors for CVD and it was suggested to interact with the variability of other risk factors to identify people at high cardiovascular risk. In addition, weight variability seems also to confer a higher risk for microvascular complications in people with T2D. While the exact mechanism linking weight variability to CVD is unknown, evidence from experimental models suggests that weight cycling promote an enduring pro-inflammatory program in the adipose tissue. Here we review the clinical evidence relative to the association of weight variability with CVD and microvascular complications of diabetes. We then briefly summarize the alterations proposed to explain this association. Finally, we synthesize the possible strategies, e.g. specific dietetic regimens and available glucose-lowering drugs, to minimize weight fluctuations.

Variability in Lipid Levels and Risk for Cardiovascular Disease: An Electronic Health Record-Based Population Cohort Study

Background Larger within-patient variability of lipid levels has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, measures of lipid variability require ≥3 measurements and are not currently used clinically. We investigated the feasibility of calculating lipid variability within a large electronic health record-based population cohort and assessed associations with incident CVD. Methods and Results We identified all individuals ≥40 years of age who resided in Olmsted County, MN, on January 1, 2006 (index date), without prior CVD, defined as myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, percutaneous coronary intervention, or CVD death. Patients with ≥3 measurements of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or triglycerides during the 5 years before the index date were retained. Lipid variability was calculated using variability independent of the mean. Patients were followed through December 31, 2020 for incident CVD. We identified 19 652 individuals (mean age 61 years; 55% female), who were CVD-free and had variability independent of the mean calculated for at least 1 lipid type. After adjustment, those with highest total cholesterol variability had a 20% increased risk of CVD (Q5 versus Q1 hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.06-1.37]). Results were similar for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions In a large electronic health record-based population cohort, high variability in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with an increased risk of CVD, independent of traditional risk factors, suggesting it may be a possible risk marker and target for intervention. Lipid variability can be calculated in the electronic health record environment, but more research is needed to determine its clinical utility.

Longitudinal body weight dynamics in relation to cognitive decline over two decades: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the associations of body weight change (BWC) and body weight variability (BWV) with changes in cognitive function.

METHODS

In 10,340 Health and Retirement Study participants (mean age: 68.0 years), body weight was reported biennially from 1993/1994 to 2016, and cognitive function was measured biennially from 1998 to 2016. We calculated BWC and BWV as the slope and root-mean-square error by regressing body weight on time for each individual. BWC was categorized by quintiles (Q): stable weight (Q2 to Q4), weight loss (Q1), and weight gain (Q5). BWV was categorized by tertiles. We used linear mixed regression models to assess associations with cognitive change.

RESULTS

Compared with stable weight (median: 0 kg/y), weight loss (median: -1.3 kg/y) predicted faster cognitive decline as demonstrated by mean difference of -0.023 (95% CI: -0.027 to -0.019) in cognitive change z score per year, whereas weight gain (median: 1 kg/y) was related to slower cognitive decline (β = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.003 to 0.009). Larger BWV was also associated with faster cognitive decline (β comparing the top with bottom tertile = -0.003; 95% CI: -0.006 to -0.0002). Similar associations were observed for episodic and working memory.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss and large BWV over a long time independently predicted faster cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults, underscoring the importance of long-term dynamic body weight monitoring.

Are Current Guidelines Perpetuating Weight Stigma? A Weight-Skeptical Approach to the Care of Patients with Obesity

Significant controversy exists regarding the evidence to support the clinical benefits and risks of weight loss interventions for individuals with obesity. United States Preventative Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines recommend weight loss for all individuals with obesity while weight-neutral models such as Health at Every Size promote weight inclusivity, focusing on body acceptance rather than weight loss. We discuss how lifestyle-based weight-centric paradigms, such as the USPSTF Guidelines, may increase weight stigma and weight cycling, and many of their purported clinical benefits are not supported by existing evidence. However, we also acknowledge the clear benefits of metabolic surgery in high-risk individuals, and the potential benefits for pharmacotherapy for obesity in selected patients. Herein we describe a weight-skeptical approach to the care of patients with obesity that aims to use available evidence to support patient-centered care.

Long-term variability in physiological measures in relation to mortality and epigenetic aging: prospective studies in the USA and China

BACKGROUND

Visit-to-visit body weight variability (BWV), pulse rate variability (PRV), and blood pressure variability (BPV) have been respectively linked to multiple health outcomes. The associations of the combination of long-term variability in physiological measures with mortality and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) remain largely unknown.

METHODS

We constructed a composite score of physiological variability (0-3) of large variability in BWV, PRV, and BPV (the top tertiles) in 2006/2008-2014/2016 in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and 2011-2015 in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). All-cause mortality was documented through 2018. EAA was calculated using thirteen DNA methylation-based epigenetic clocks among 1047 participants in a substudy of the HRS. We assessed the relation of the composite score to the risk of mortality among 6566 participants in the HRS and 6906 participants in the CHARLS by Cox proportional models and then investigated its association with EAA using linear regression models.

RESULTS

A higher score of variability was associated with higher mortality risk in both cohorts (pooled hazard ratio [HR] per one-point increment, 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18, 1.39; P-heterogeneity = 0.344), after adjustment for multiple confounders and baseline physiological measures. Specifically, each SD increment in BWV, PRV, and BPV was related to 21% (95% CI: 15%, 28%), 6% (0%, 13%), and 12% (4%, 19%) higher hazard of mortality, respectively. The composite score was significantly related to EAA in second-generation clocks trained on health outcomes (e.g., standardized coefficient = 0.126 in the Levine clock, 95% CI: 0.055, 0.196) but not in most first-generation clocks trained on chronological age.

CONCLUSIONS

Larger variability in physiological measures was associated with a higher risk of mortality and faster EAA.

Repercussions of absolute and time-rated BMI "yo-yo" fluctuations on cardiovascular stress-related morbidities within the vascular-metabolic CUN cohort

Aims

The association between body mass index (BMI) fluctuation and BMI fluctuation rate with cardiovascular stress morbidities in a Caucasian European cohort was evaluated to ascertain the impact of weight cycling.

Methods

A total of 4,312 patients of the Vascular-Metabolic CUN cohort (VMCUN cohort) were examined and followed up during 9.35 years ( ± 4.39). Cox proportional hazard ratio analyses were performed to assess the risk of developing cardiovascular stress-related diseases (CVDs) across quartiles of BMI fluctuation, measured as the average successive variability (ASV) (ASV = |BMIt0 - BMIt1| + |BMIt1 - BMIt2| + |BMIt2-BMIt3| +…+ |BMItn - 1 - BMItn|/n - 1), and quartiles of BMI fluctuation rate (ASV/year).

Results

There were 436 incident cases of CVD-associated events involving 40,323.32 person-years of follow-up. A progressively increased risk of CVD in subjects with greater ASV levels was found. Also, a higher level of ASV/year was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing CVD stress independent of confounding factors with a value of 3.71 (95% CI: 2.71-5.07) for those in the highest quartile and 1.82 (95% CI: 1.33-2.50) for those in the third quartile.

Conclusions

The BMI fluctuation rate seems to be a better predictor than BMI fluctuation of the potential development of cardiovascular stress morbidities. The time-rated weight fluctuations are apparently more determinant in increasing the risk of a CVD than the weight fluctuation itself, which is remarkable in subjects under "yo-yo" weight patterns for precision medicine.

Weight variability and cardiovascular outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between body weight variability and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been investigated previously with mixed findings. However, there has been no extensive study which systematically evaluates the current evidence. Furthermore, the impact of ethnicity and type 2 diabetes on this phenomena has not yet been investigated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the effect of weight variability on risk of CVD (any cardiovascular (CV) event, composite CV outcome, CV death, Stroke, Myocardial Infarction) and the influence of ethnicity and type 2 diabetes status on the observed association. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed according to the meta-analyses of observational studies in epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies that investigated the relationship between body weight or BMI variability and CV diseases using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and keywords. The relative risks (RRs) for the outcomes were collected from studies, pooled, and analysed using a random-effects model to estimate the overall relative risk. Of 5645 articles screened, 23 studies with a total population of 15,382,537 fulfilled the prespecified criteria and were included. Individuals in the highest strata of body weight variability were found to have significantly increased risk of any CV event (RR = 1.27; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.17-1.38; P < 0.0001; I² = 97.28%), cardiovascular death (RR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.03-1.60; P < 0.0001; I² = 55.16%), myocardial infarction (RR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.09-1.59; P = 0.0037; I² = 97.14%), stroke (RR = 1.21; 95% CI 1.19-1.24; P < 0.0001; I² = 0.06%), and compound CVD outcomes (RR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.08-1.73; P = 0.01; I² = 92.41%). Similar RRs were observed regarding BMI variability and per unit standard deviation (SD) increase in body weight variability. Comparable effects were seen in people with and without diabetes, in White Europeans and Asians. In conclusion, body weight variability is associated with increased risk of CV diseases regardless of ethnicity or diabetes status. Future research is needed to prove a causative link between weight variability and CVD risk, as appropriate interventions to maintain stable weight could positively influence CVD.

Effect of intensive lifestyle intervention on the association between weight variability and major adverse cardiovascular events in overweight or obese adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

Weight variability is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic patients. However, whether the guideline-recommended intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) will affect this association in overweight or obese adults with diabetes is not well established.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In 3,859 participants from the Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial, the associations of 4 year weight variability measured by variability independent of the mean (VIM) with major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and secondary outcomes in ILI and diabetes support & education (DSE) arm were evaluated.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.6 years, 255 (12.9%) participants in the ILI arm and 247 (13.2%) participants in the DSE arm developed MACE. Participants with the highest quartile of weight variability (VIM Q4) experienced a 2.23-fold higher risk of MACE compared with the lowest quartile (VIM Q1) in the DSE arm (hazard ratio [HR] 2.23; 95% CI 1.51-3.30). Compared with the lowest weight variability (VIM Q1), participants with the highest weight variability (VIM Q4) were associated with higher risks of secondary cardiovascular composite outcome (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.20-2.95), all-cause mortality (HR 3.19; 95% CI 1.75-5.82), and myocardial infarction (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.12-3.37) in the DSE arm.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the overweight or obese individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, rising weight variability was independently associated with increased MACE risks in the DSE arm. Therefore, a guideline-recommended ILI strategy for weight loss should be adopted to improve cardiovascular outcomes without worrying about the effect of weight fluctuations.

Dismantling weight stigma in eating disorder treatment: Next steps for the field

The authors posit current guidelines and treatment for eating disorders (EDs) fail to adequately address, and often perpetuate, weight stigma. The social devaluation and denigration of higher-weight individuals cuts across nearly every life domain and is associated with negative physiological and psychosocial outcomes, mirroring the harms attributed to weight itself. Maintaining focus on weight in ED treatment can intensify weight stigma among patients and providers, leading to increased internalization, shame, and poorer health outcomes. Stigma has been recognized as a fundamental cause of health inequities. With no clear evidence that the proposed mechanisms of ED treatment effectively address internalized weight bias and its association with disordered eating behavior, it is not hard to imagine that providers' perpetuation of weight bias, however unintentional, may be a key contributor to the suboptimal response to ED treatment. Several reported examples of weight stigma in ED treatment are discussed to illustrate the pervasiveness and insidiousness of this problem. The authors contend weight management inherently perpetuates weight stigma and outline steps for researchers and providers to promote weight-inclusive care (targeting health behavior change rather than weight itself) as an alternative approach capable of addressing some of the many social injustices in the history of this field.

Weight fluctuation, mortality, and cardiovascular disease in adults in 18 years of follow-up: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

PURPOSE

Controversies exist in the effect of body weight loss and fluctuation on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. This study aims to assess the effect of weight variability on CVD and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) cohort.

METHOD

Participants aged  ≥ 40 year at the baseline period with at least 3 BMI measurements were included in this study. After excluding individuals with cancer, CVD, end-stage renal disease, systemic use of glucocorticoids, pregnancy, and missing covariates at the baseline, a total of 3461 participants were enrolled and followed for 18 years. BMI variability was defined using root mean squared error (RMSE) and average successive variability (ASV). In the RMSE method, BMI variability was calculated using the best-fitting model for BMI trend of each subject. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were applied to assess BMI variability's effect on CVD and mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 3461 participants in this study, the group with the highest weight variability had an increased risk of death for all-cause (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.25), non-cardiovascular (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.24-2.53), and non-cancer (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.25-2.50) mortality. However, BMI variability showed to be protective against CVD (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.6-0.97). These findings were significant in males, non-smokers, participants with age  ≤ 60 year, BMI < 30, negative BMI slope, and both diabetic and non-diabetic subjects.

CONCLUSION

High BMI variability is associated with increased risk of all-cause, non-CVD, and non-cancer mortality, although protective for the CVD event. Appropriate strategies for body weight maintenance after weight loss could be adopted to avoid weight variability, particularly in non-obese subjects.

Body-weight variability and risk of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 1 diabetes: a retrospective observational analysis of data from the DCCT/EDIC population

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular risk and body-weight management are both emerging challenges of type 1 diabetes care. We evaluated the association between intraindividual variability of body-weight and risk of cardiovascular events in people with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

We analyzed 1,398 participants from the DCCT/EDIC studies. Five indices of intraindividual variability of body-weight were calculated for each participant taking into account body-weight measures obtained during the DCCT follow-up (average 6 ± 2 years). The Average Successive Variability (ASV) index, the main variable of interest, was defined as the average absolute difference between successive body-weight measures. The primary outcome was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, or cardiovascular death) occurring during the subsequent EDIC follow-up (20 ± 3 years). All-cause death was a secondary outcome. Risk of outcomes were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risks factors, including BMI.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of MACE and all-cause death during follow-up were 5.6% (n = 79) and 6.8% (n = 95), respectively. The adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) for MACE by every increase of 1 standard deviation (SD) of ASV was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.06-1.66), p = 0.01. For all-cause death, the adjusted HR for 1 SD increase of ASV was 1.25 (1.03-1.50), p = 0.03. Similar results were observed when considering the other indices of intraindividual variability of body-weight.

CONCLUSIONS

High body-weight variability (body-weight cycling) is associated with increased risk of MACE and all-cause death in people with type 1 diabetes, independently of the BMI and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Weight-normative messaging predominates on TikTok-A qualitative content analysis

Tiktok is a social media platform with many adolescent and young adult users. Food, nutrition, and weight-related posts are popular on TikTok, yet there is little understanding of the content of these posts, and whether nutrition-related content is presented by experts. The objective was to identify key themes in food, nutrition, and weight-related posts on TikTok. 1000 TikTok videos from 10 popular nutrition, food, and weight-related hashtags each with over 1 billion views were downloaded and analyzed using template analysis. The one-hundred most viewed videos were downloaded from each of the ten chosen hashtags. Two coders then coded each video for key themes. Key themes included the glorification of weight loss in many posts, the positioning of food to achieve health and thinness, and the lack of expert voices providing nutrition information. The majority of posts presented a weight-normative view of health, with less than 3% coded as weight-inclusive. Most posts were created by white, female adolescents and young adults. Nutrition-related content on TikTok is largely weight normative, and may contribute to disordered eating behaviors and body dissatisfaction in the young people that are TikTok’s predominant users. Helping users discern credible nutrition information, and eliminate triggering content from their social media feeds may be strategies to address the weight-normative social media content that is so prevalent.

Variability in serum creatinine is associated with waitlist and post-liver transplant mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kidney function in patients with cirrhosis is dynamic. After controlling for the presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI), we investigated the impact of variation in clinical function on pre-liver transplantation (LT) and post-LT outcomes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We included adults listed for LT from 2011 through 2018. We excluded those with any exceptions, those on hemodialysis at listing, and those with fewer than three clinical updates in the United Network for Organ Sharing database. Our primary exposure was the serum creatinine coefficient of variation (sCr CoV). Logistic regression determined the associations between our exposures and higher sCr CoV. Competing risk regression determined the associations between our exposures and waitlist mortality, accounting for LT as a competing risk. Cox regression determined the associations between our exposures and either listing for kidney transplant or death. We divided our cohort into tertiles of sCr CoV: low variability, 8.8% (interquartile range [IQR], 6.6%-10.8%); intermediate variability, 17.4% (IQR, 14.8%-20.4%); high variability, 36.8% (IQR, 29.5%-48.8%). We demonstrate that women, those with CKD, and those with advanced liver disease were more likely to have a greater sCr CoV. Compared to those with low variability, those with high variability had significantly higher waitlist mortality (34.7% vs. 19.6% vs. 11.7%, p < 0.001). We highlight that the sCr CoV was associated with higher waitlist and post-LT mortality-an association independent of baseline sCr, the degree of underlying liver disease, the presence of AKI, or the presence of CKD.

CONCLUSION

This study informs the long-term impact of the variation in kidney function we all see in clinical practice. These data highlight that all fluctuations in sCr are associated with worse pre-LT and post-LT outcomes.

Changes in fat mass and lean body mass and outcomes in type 2 diabetes mellitus

Previous studies have found that fat mass and lean body mass may act differently on the prognosis in patients type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the change of fat mass and lean body mass on prognosis in T2DM patients has not yet been investigated. We performed a Post hoc analysis of data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to study the relationship between tertiles of the change trend in lean body mass index (LBMI, kg/m²/year) or fat mass index (FMI, kg/m²/year) and major cardiovascular adverse events (MACEs) and all cause mortality. Nine thousand, one hundred seventy-six T2DM patients with a mean follow-up of 9.52 ± 1.89 years were included in our study. The mean change in FMI per year was 0.10 ± 0.48 kg/m². The mean change in LBMI per year was 0.05 ± 0.38 kg/m². Normal weight patients had highest FMI/LBMI change; severely obese patients had lowest FMI/LBMI change. A U-shaped relationship was found between the change in FMI/LBMI and all cause mortality. A flat U-shaped relationship was also noted between the change in FMI or LBMI and MACEs. Compared with the second tertile, the first and third tertiles of the change in FMI (HR: 1.18, 95% CI 1.03-1.36; HR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.16-1.54, respectively)/LBMI (HR: 1.24, 95% CI 1.08-1.43; HR: 1.30, 95% CI 1.12-1.50, respectively) had higher all cause mortality; the third tertile of the change in FMI/LBMI showed a marginal increase of MACEs (HR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.32; HR: 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.33, respectively); sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis showed these associations were not robust. Both lower and larger change in FMI or LBMI are associated with increased all cause mortality compared with the median change among patients with T2DM. Further study is needed to determine whether increased FMI or LBMI increases the risk of MACEs.Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov., No. NCT00000620.

REPRINT OF: Racism, Sexism, and Social Class: Implications for Studies of Health, Disease, and Well-being

Editor's Note: This article is a reprint of a previously published article. For citation purposes, please use the original publication details: Krieger N, Rowley DL, Herman AA, Avery B, Phillips MT. Racism, sexism, and social class: implications for studies of health, disease, and well-being. Am J Prev Med. 1993;9(6 suppl):82-122.

Association of Changes in Physical Activity and Adiposity With Mortality and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: Longitudinal Findings From the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of changes in physical activity and adiposity with all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Physical activity, body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, waist circumference, and waist to hip ratio changes were categorized on the basis of public health and clinical guidelines. Among 29,610 participants (mean ± SD follow-up, 5.1±2.1 years), 545 deaths and 2970 CVD events occurred. Participants were observed from baseline (March 13, 2006, to October 10, 2010) and follow-up (August 1, 2012 to November 9, 2018) assessment through March 31, 2021.

RESULTS

Compared with stable-insufficient physical activity, increasing physical activity to meet guidelines at follow-up was associated with lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.64 [0.49 to 0.85]) and CVD (0.83 [0.72 to 0.96]) risk. This risk was similar to that of those who achieved physical activity guidelines at both time points (all-cause mortality, 0.74 [0.60 to 0.92]; CVD, 0.88 [0.79 to 0.99]). For obese and overweight participants, decreasing BMI category was associated with a lower CVD risk (0.70 [0.47 to 1.04]) similar to the risk of those who had a healthy weight at both time points (0.85 [0.76 to 0.96]). In the joint analyses, the only combination that lowered all-cause mortality and CVD risk was physical activity increase and adiposity decrease over time (eg, CVD risk: BMI, 0.64 [0.42 to 0.96]; body fat percentage, 0.76 [0.55 to 0.97]; waist circumference, 0.66 [0.48 to 0.89]; waist to hip ratio, 0.78 [0.62 to 0.97]) compared with the reference group (stable physical activity and adiposity).

CONCLUSION

Increases in physical activity to meet guidelines lowered all-cause mortality and CVD risk equal to that of those who continually met guidelines. The risk was effectively eliminated in those who had concurrent adiposity decrease.

The association between diabetes and hypertension with the number and extent of weight cycles determined from 6 million participants

The purpose of this study was to elucidate the association between weight cycling and clinical outcomes such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension with differential effects of baseline age and obesity. Nationwide data from 6,132,569 healthy adults who underwent five or more health screenings between 2002 and 2011 were analyzed and followed until December 2019 for type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Weight cycling was defined as a change in body weight followed by another change in the opposite direction. Through the Cox proportional hazards model, the number and degree of weight cycles were positively associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and hypertension. The hazard ratios (HRs) of weight cycling for type 2 diabetes and hypertension were as high as 1.263 (1.213-1.315) and 1.175 (1.144-1.207) at two or more weight cycles of 10% of body weight (BW), respectively. The association was stronger for females, individuals with normal body weight/BMI, and older individuals. Weight cycling was significantly associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes and was stronger in individuals with normal BMI and females, indicating that these people should be informed about the potential risk of weight cycling.

Association Between Higher Variability in Kidney Function and Long-term Mortality

AIM

We evaluated whether estimated glomerular filtration rate variability in the general population could be associated with all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Health examination data from 7,842 individuals aged >20 years who visited for health check-ups at least thrice at ≥6-month intervals between May 1, 1995 and November 30, 2010 were collected. Estimated glomerular filtration rate variability was defined as the coefficient of variation of the estimated glomerular filtration rate, i.e., standard deviation/mean value multiplied by 100. The study population was divided into three groups based on the coefficient of variation tertiles, and the mortality risks were compared across groups.

RESULTS

The mean duration from the final visit to the outcome was 10.3±2.9 years. The mean coefficient of variations of estimated glomerular filtration rate variability from the lowest to the highest variability group were 5.1±1.8%, 9.0±1.0%, and 14.4±3.9%, respectively. There was a 1.3 times higher risk of mortality in the group with the highest variability (hazard ratio: 1.300, 95% confidence interval: 1.013-1.669) after adjustment. The findings were similar in patients with diabetes and those >60 years old (hazard ratio: 1.635, 95% confidence interval: 1.076-2.483; hazard ratio: 1.585, 95% confidence interval: 1.107-2.269).

CONCLUSION

Higher estimated glomerular filtration rate variability was associated with increased 10-year mortality in the general population. This variability was very small, but considering the patients' long-term prognoses, it was significant. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Body weight, diabetes incidence vascular events and survival 15 years after very low calorie diet in community medical clinics in the UK

Objective

To assess weight loss maintenance, diabetes status, mortality and morbidity 15 years after a very low calorie diet programme (VLCD) in patients with obesity.

Design

General practice data bases were interrogated for subjects coded for group therapy with VLCD in the 1990s. Causes of death, occurrence of vascular disease and remission or development of diabetes were ascertained from patient records and national stroke and cardiovascular disease data bases.

Results

325 subjects engaged in the programme and had sufficient data for analysis. Baseline characteristics were: age 47.8±12. 8 years; body mass index (BMI) 36.1±6.8 kg/m²; 79.1% female/20.9% male; 13.5% had type 2 diabetes. After 15±4 years weight had changed from 97.9±19 kg at baseline to 100±20.8 kg. 10 with diabetes at baseline were in remission at 3 months, but only two remained in remission at 5 years. 50 new cases of type 2 diabetes and 11 of impaired fasting glucose developed during follow-up. Only 5.9% who remained healthy at follow-up had maintained >10% body weight reduction. Neither diabetes incidence nor diabetes free survival were related to percentage body weight lost during VLCD. Only baseline BMI was related to development of new impaired fasting glucose or diabetes by 15 years (p=0.007). 37 subjects had a cardiovascular event. Age (p=0.000002) and degree of weight loss after VLCD (p=0.03) were significantly associated with subsequent vascular events.

Conclusion

Long-term maintenance of weight loss after VLCD was rare in this single centre retrospective study 15 years later. Glucose intolerance developed in 21.4%. Lasting remission of type 2 diabetes or prevention of later glucose intolerance were not achieved. Vascular events were more frequent in those who lost most weight. Risk management during weight regain should be studied in future to assess potential for reduction in adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

Association of Body Weight Variability With Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Patients With Predialysis Chronic Kidney Disease

Background

We investigated whether high body weight variability (BWV) is associated with a higher prevalence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) or more rapid progression of CAC in patients with predialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Methods

A total of 1,162 subjects from a nationwide prospective cohort of predialysis CKD were analyzed. The subjects were divided into the tertile (T1, T2, and T3) by BWV. CAC was assessed at the baseline and a 4-year follow-up by CT scan. Rapid progression of coronary artery calcification was defined as an increase in coronary artery calcium score (CACS) more than 200 Agatston units during a 4-year follow-up.

Results

One-way ANOVA revealed that CACS change during the follow-up period is significantly higher in the subjects with high BWV, although CACS at the baseline and 4-year follow-up was not different among the tertile groups by BWV. Logistic regression analysis revealed that compared to low BWV (T1), both moderate (T2, adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.118, 95% CI 1.075–4.175) and high (T3, adjusted OR 2.602, 95% CI 1.304–5.191) BWV was associated with significantly increased risk of rapid progression of CAC. Importantly, the association between BWV and progression of CAC remained robust even among the subjects without significant BW gain or loss during follow-up periods (T2, adjusted OR 2.007, 95% CI 1.011–3.984; T3, adjusted OR 2.054, 95% CI 1.003–4.207).

Conclusion

High BWV is independently associated with rapid progression of CAC in patients with predialysis CKD.

Variability of adiposity indices and incident heart failure among adults with type 2 diabetes

Background

It remains unclear how the variability of adiposity indices relates to incident HF. This study evaluated the associations of the variability in several adiposity indices with incident heart failure (HF) in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

Methods

We included 4073 participants from the Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) study. We assessed variability of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and body weight across four annual visits using three variability metrics, the variability independent of the mean (VIM), coefficient of variation (CV), and intraindividual standard deviation (SD). Multivariable Cox regression models were used to generate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident HF.

Results

Over a median of 6.7 years, 120 participants developed incident HF. After adjusting for relevant confounders including baseline adiposity levels, the aHR for the highest (Q4) versus lowest quartile (Q1) of VIM of BMI was 3.61 (95% CI 1.91–6.80). The corresponding aHRs for CV and SD of BMI were 2.48 (95% CI 1.36–4.53) and 2.88 (1.52–5.46), respectively. Regarding WC variability, the equivalent aHRs were 1.90 (95% CI 1.11–3.26), 1.79 (95% CI 1.07–3.01), and 1.73 (1.01–2.95) for Q4 versus Q1 of VIM, CV and SD of WC, respectively.

Conclusions

In a large sample of adults with T2DM, a greater variability of adiposity indices was associated with higher risks of incident HF, independently of traditional risk factors and baseline adiposity levels.

Registration-URL:https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00000620.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01440-1.

Body Weight Variability and Risk of Cardiovascular Outcomes and Death in the Context of Weight Loss Intervention Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

IMPORTANCE

Body weight fluctuation is associated with greater risks of adverse health outcomes. Whether intensive weight loss interventions affect the association of variability in adiposity measures with adverse health outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes has not been studied previously.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the associations of long-term variability in adiposity indices with cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and whether these associations are affected by an intensive lifestyle intervention among adults with type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective cohort study included participants in the Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial without CVD at baseline (August 2001 to April 2004). The Look AHEAD study included 16 centers in the United States. Data analysis was performed from December 2020 to June 2021.

EXPOSURES

Variability of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) across 4 annual visits, assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and standard deviation (SD).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Main outcomes were (1) all-cause mortality, (2) cardiovascular deaths (deaths from myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke), and (3) CVD events (MI, stroke, and/or death from cardiovascular causes).

RESULTS

Among 3604 study participants (mean [SD] age, 58.4 [6.6] years; 2240 [62.3%] women; 1364 [37.7%] Black participants; 2404 [66%] White participants), there were 216 CVD events, 33 CVD deaths, and 166 deaths over a median of 6.7 years. In the control group, the hazard ratios (HRs) for the highest quartile (quartile 4) compared with the lowest quartile (quartile 1) of CV of BMI were 4.06 (95% CI, 2.17-7.57), 15.28 (95% CI, 2.89-80.90), and 2.16 (95% CI, 1.21-3.87) for all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and cardiovascular events, respectively. In the intervention group, the corresponding HRs were 0.99 (95% CI, 0.45-2.16), 1.14 (95% CI, 0.12-10.53), and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.40-1.49) for quartile 4 vs quartile 1. Regarding WC, in the control group, HRs for quartile 4 vs quartile 1 were 1.84 (95% CI, 1.01-3.35), 6.46 (95% CI, 1.16-36.01), and 1.28 (95% CI, 0.72-2.29). In the intervention group, HRs were 1.23 (95% CI, 0.61-2.46), 0.55 (95% CI, 0.15-2.11), and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.39-1.25) for quartile 4 vs quartile 1.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of individuals with type 2 diabetes, higher variability of adiposity indices was associated with significantly increased risk of CVD outcomes and death in the control group but not in the intensive lifestyle intervention group.

Adverse Changes in Body Composition During the Menopausal Transition and Relation to Cardiovascular Risk: A Contemporary Review

The menopausal transition period in aging women is strongly associated with weight gain. Evidence shows that weight changes during menopause increases the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in postmenopausal women. However, the potential mechanisms that cause weight gain and adverse changes to body composition specifically during the menopausal transition period remain to be elucidated. In this contemporary review, we examined recent evidence for adverse changes in body composition at midlife during the menopausal transition and the link to increased CVD risk and described factors that may contribute to these changes, including normal chronological aging, hormonal factors (decreased estrogen, etc.), behavioral factors (changes in diet, physical activity), or other emerging factors (e.g., sleep). This review focused on identifying factors that make the menopausal transition period a critical window for prevention of CVD. Future study is needed to decipher the extent to which hormonal changes, age-related factors, and behavioral factors interact with and contribute to increased CVD risk in women undergoing menopause. Understanding the causes of weight gain during the menopausal transition may help to inform strategies to mitigate adverse CVD outcomes for women transitioning through menopause.

Association between Variability of Metabolic Risk Factors and Cardiometabolic Outcomes

Despite strenuous efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by improving cardiometabolic risk factors, such as glucose and cholesterol levels, and blood pressure, there is still residual risk even in patients reaching treatment targets. Recently, researchers have begun to focus on the variability of metabolic variables to remove residual risks. Several clinical trials and cohort studies have reported a relationship between the variability of metabolic parameters and CVDs. Herein, we review the literature regarding the effect of metabolic factor variability and CVD risk, and describe possible mechanisms and potential treatment perspectives for reducing cardiometabolic risk factor variability.

Effects of weight change on all causes, digestive system and other causes mortality in Southern Italy: a competing risk approach

Weight change is associated with all causes of death, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality and a heterogeneous group of other causes of death. We aimed to estimate the effect of weight change on all causes and cause-specific mortality in a cohort with a high prevalence of deaths due to diseases of the digestive system.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, 2230 subjects aged 30 to 50 years were examined. The study consisted of a 32-year longitudinal study period (January 1985 to December 2017) and mortality follow-up. Outcomes were mortality from all causes and deaths from gastrointestinal disease. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) was evaluated to capture individual residual variation in Body Mass Index (BMI) after adjustment for baseline BMI, and the relationship of residual variation with mortality was calculated as cumulative incidence function and cause-specific hazard (CSH) rate.ResultsIn total, 793 participants died during the follow-up, 96 of them due to Digestive system causes. Magnitude of residual variation weight in the last quintile was associated with all-cause mortality (relative risk, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.54-2.59) and Digestive system causes (relative risk, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.86-7.81).ConclusionThe findings suggest an association between weight change and gastrointestinal disease mortality. Epidemiological works studying the correlation between weight change and mortality should consider this aspect.

Body weight fluctuation is associated with rapid kidney function decline

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of body weight fluctuations on kidney function deterioration in a prospective cohort of individuals with normal kidney function.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. Body weight fluctuations were determined using average successive variability (ASV), which was defined as the average absolute body weight change using repeated measurements for all participants. The decline of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time was calculated using linear regression analysis of serial eGFR measurements for each patient. Rapid eGFR decline was defined as an average eGFR decline > 3 mL/min/1.73 m² per year.

RESULTS

A total of 6,790 participants were analyzed. During a median follow-up of 11.7 years, rapid eGFR decline was observed in 913 (13.4%) participants. When the participants were categorized into tertiles according to ASV, rapid eGFR decline was more prevalent in the highest ASV tertile group than in the lowest. Analyses using multiple logistic regression models revealed that the risk of rapid eGFR decline was increased in the highest ASV tertile group compared with the lowest (odds ratio: 1.66).

CONCLUSIONS

Body weight fluctuations were significantly associated with an increased risk of rapid kidney function decline in participants with normal kidney function.

Underweight and Weight Change Increases End-Stage Renal Disease Risk in Patients with Diabetes: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Weight variability has known as a risk factor for cardiovascular events and mortality. However, its effect on end-stage renal disease (ESRD) development remains controversial. We investigated the relationship between weight change and ESRD risk. Overall, 97,029 patients with DM aged >20 years were selected from the Korean National Health Screening Program 2009–2012. Weight change was defined as differences in body weight from the index year to 2 years later. Newly diagnosed ESRD was observed until 2017 end. Over a 5.1-year median follow-up period, ESRD was newly diagnosed in 7932 (4.81%) DM patients. BMI < 18.5 kg/m² and waist circumferences <85/80 and >100/95 cm were ESRD risk factors. ESRD risk increased with increasing weight change; ≥10% weight loss (hazard ratio [HR], 1.247) followed by ≥10% weight gain (1.247) was associated with a higher HR than ≤5% weight change after adjusting for several confounding factors. The association between weight change and ESRD risk in a subgroup analysis was significantly stronger in patients aged <65 years, without proteinuria, with BMI ≥ 25, with DM duration <5 years, and prescribed less than 3 classes of DM medication. Underweight patients showed higher ESRD risks than overweight patients. Weight loss >10% was associated with the fastest decline in renal function.

Association between visit-to-visit variability of glycemic indices and lipid profile and the incidence of coronary heart disease in adults with type 2 diabetes

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major causes of mortality and morbidity in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. In this study, we aimed to assess the association between visit-to-visit variability of fasting blood sugar (FBS), HbA1c, blood sugar 2 h post-prandial (BS2hpp), lipid indices, creatinine, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and incident CHD in patients with type 2 diabetes during a median follow-up of ten years. The current case-cohort study consisted of 1500 individuals with type 2 diabetes, followed up for the occurrence of CHD from 2002 to 2019. The patients had at least four annual follow-ups during which glycemic and lipid profile were measured. Co-efficient of variance (CV) for each parameter was calculated by 10-21 measurements. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between CV of glycemic indices, lipid profile, blood pressure, creatinine, weight and incident CHD during the follow-up period. Hazard ratios (HR) were adjusted for the confounding variables. Glycemic indices variability (i.e., CV-HbA1c, CV-FBS, and CV-BS2hpp), were significantly higher in the group with incident CHD (P=0.034, P=0.042, and P=0.044, respectively). Hazard ratios were 1.42 (95 % CI=1.13-2.09) for CV-HbA1c, 1.37 (95 % CI=1.02-2.10) for CV-FBS, and 1.16 (95 % CI=1.01-1.63) for CV-BS2hpp (P=0.012, P=0.046, P=0.038, respectively). Creatinine was significantly higher in the group with incident CHD (P=0.036) and it was significantly associated with higher incidence of CHD (HR=1.14, 95 % CI=1.02-2.17, P=0.048). Visit to visit variability of glycemic indices of the patients with type 2 diabetes is associated with incident CHD independent of their baseline and mean values.

Associations of weight loss with obesity-related comorbidities in a large integrated health system

AIMS

To determine the health outcomes associated with weight loss in individuals with obesity, and to better understand the relationship between disease burden (disease burden; ie, prior comorbidities, healthcare utilization) and weight loss in individuals with obesity by analysing electronic health records (EHRs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a case-control study using deidentified EHR-derived information from 204 921 patients seen at the Cleveland Clinic between 2000 and 2018. Patients were aged ≥20 years with body mass index ≥30 kg/m² and had ≥7 weight measurements, over ≥3 years. Thirty outcomes were investigated, including chronic and acute diseases, as well as psychological and metabolic disorders. Weight change was investigated 3, 5 and 10 years prior to an event.

RESULTS

Weight loss was associated with reduced incidence of many outcomes (eg, type 2 diabetes, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis/nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, obstructive sleep apnoea, hypertension; P < 0.05). Weight loss >10% was associated with increased incidence of certain outcomes including stroke and substance abuse. However, many outcomes that increased with weight loss were attenuated by disease burden adjustments.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides the most comprehensive real-world evaluation of the health impacts of weight change to date. After comorbidity burden and healthcare utilization adjustments, weight loss was associated with an overall reduction in risk of many adverse outcomes.

Effect of blood lipid variability on mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: a large single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidemia is a major cardiovascular risk factor and common in diabetes patients. Most guidelines focus on optimal lipid levels, while variation of lipid profiles is far less discussed. This study aims to investigate the association of visit-to-visit variability in blood lipids with all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We identified 10,583 type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥ 30 years with follow-up ≥ 3 years and who participated in the Diabetes Care Management Program at a medical center in Taiwan. Variability in lipid profiles within 3 years after entry was calculated using coefficient of variation. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate lipid variability in relation to subsequent mortality.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 6.4 years, 1838 all-cause deaths (809 cardiovascular deaths) were observed. For each 10% increase in variability in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of all-cause mortality were 1.30 (1.22-1.37), 1.05 (1.01-1.09), and 1.10 (1.03-1.16), respectively; those of cardiovascular mortality were 1.27 (1.16-1.39), 1.08 (1.02-1.15), and 1.16 (1.07-1.27), respectively. Each 10% increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol variability conveyed 31% greater risk of non-cardiovascular mortality. High variability in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol increased all-cause mortality in subgroups of nonsmoking, regular exercising, non-dyslipidemia, and more severe status of diabetes at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood lipid variability except for triglyceride variability was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Body Mass Index Changes in Relation to Male Reproductive Hormones: Longitudinal Results From a Community-Based Cohort Study

The objective of the current study was to explore the relationship between longitudinal change in body mass index (BMI) and reproductive hormones in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men. A cohort study was conducted in a rural area of China. Local male residents aged 40-80 years were recruited at baseline in 2012 and were followed up in 2016. Information about weight, height, waist circumference, sex hormones, smoking status, and medical history were obtained. The change in BMI reported no significant relationship with the change in total testosterone (TT), calculated free testosterone (cFT), and bioavailable testosterone (BioT) in Pearson correlation analyses. When the change in BMI was divided into three groups-"great loss," "normal fluctuation," and "great gain"-TT, cFT and BioT had the highest increase (or the lowest decrease) in men with "normal fluctuation" in BMI compared with the other two groups. The advantage of maintaining a stable BMI was more evident for those who were overweight, non-smoking, and disease-free. There was a tendency of a continuous increase in cFT and BioT with BMI increase in smoking and diseased populations. Maintaining a stable BMI is associated with maintaining normal levels of reproductive hormones, especially in overweight, non-smoking, and healthy men aged over 40 years.

Longitudinal Body Weight Change, Visit-To-Visit Body Weight Fluctuation, and Cognitive Decline Among Older Adults

BACKGROUND

The evidence regarding dementia and late-life weight change is inconsistent, and data on body weight fluctuation and dementia are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that weight loss and substantial weight fluctuation predict cognitive decline independent of body weight and traditional risk factors of dementia.

METHODS

This study utilized longitudinal data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center for 10,639 stroke- and dementia-free older adults (60.9%female, mean age 71.6 years, median follow-up 5.5 years). Trends in weight change and weight fluctuation were estimated for each individual by regressing repeated body weight measurements on time. Cognitive decline was examined as diagnostic progression from normal to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia and from MCI to dementia.

RESULTS

Compared to participants with stable weight, those with weight loss had increased odds of diagnostic progression (adjusted OR = 1.35, 95%CI [1.21, 1.51]). Also, large weight fluctuation was associated with increased odds of diagnostic progression (OR comparing the extreme quartiles = 1.20, 95%CI [1.04, 1.39]) after adjusting for traditional risk factors for dementia and body weight change. The magnitude of the association appeared larger among those older than 80 and those with 3 or more cardiometabolic risk factors at baseline (both p for interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Weight loss and substantial weight fluctuation during late-life were associated with increased odds of cognitive decline independent of body weight and traditional risk factors of dementia. Our results suggested the linkage between late-life body weight instability and cognitive decline especially among those with greater age or higher cardiometabolic risk.

Association of Body Weight Variability with Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Pre-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease

To investigate the association of body weight variability (BWV) with adverse cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patient with pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), a total of 1867 participants with pre-dialysis CKD from Korean Cohort Study for Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (KNOW-CKD) were analyzed. BWV was defined as the average absolute difference between successive values. The primary outcome was a composite of non-fatal CV events and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were fatal and non-fatal CV events and all-cause mortality. High BWV was associated with increased risk of the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.745, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.065 to 2.847) as well as fatal and non-fatal CV events (adjusted HR 1.845, 95% CI 1.136 to 2.996) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.861, 95% CI 1.101 to 3.145). High BWV was associated with increased risk of fatal and non-fatal CV events, even in subjects without significant body weight gain or loss during follow-up periods (adjusted HR 2.755, 95% CI 1.114 to 6.813). In conclusion, high BWV is associated with adverse CV outcomes in patients with pre-dialysis CKD.

Long-Term Body Mass Index Variability, Weight Change Slope, and Risk of Cardiovascular Outcomes: 7-Year Prospective Study in Chinese Hypertensive Subjects

BACKGROUND

The relationship between long-term body mass index (BMI) variability, weight change slope, and risk of cardiovascular outcomes in Chinese hypertensive patients has not been fully elucidated.

METHODS

A total of 20,737 patients with hypertension and three BMI measurements between 2006 and 2011 were included. Average real variability (ARV) was used to evaluate variability, and the subjects were divided into three groups: tertile 1 with BMI_ARV ≤0.86; tertile 2 with 0.86 < BMI_ARV ≤ 1.60; and tertile 3 with BMI_ARV >1.60. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to analyze the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in each group.

RESULTS

There were 1,352 cases of CVD during an average follow-up of 6.62 years. The 7-year cumulative incidence rates of CVD, stroke, and myocardial infarction (MI) in tertile 3 were 7.53, 6.13, and 1.56%, respectively. After adjustment for average BMI, weight change slope, and other traditional risk factors, the hazard ratio (HR) values for CVD, stroke, and MI in the highest tertile were 1.21 (95% CI 1.05-1.39), 1.21 (95% CI 1.04-1.38), and 1.20 (95% CI 0.88-1.62), respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that the HR values for CVD in tertile 3 were 1.71 (95% CI 1.06-2.75) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.61-1.58) in the positive and the negative weight change subjects, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher BMI variability was associated with increased risk of CVD in hypertensive subjects with weight gain but not in those with weight loss, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.