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Perry WB, Chrispim MC, Barbosa MRF, de Souza Lauretto M, Razzolini MTP, Nardocci AC, Jones O, Jones DL, Weightman A, Sato MIZ, Montagner C, Durance I. Cross-continental comparative experiences of wastewater surveillance and a vision for the 21st century. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 919:170842. [PMID: 38340868 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2023] [Revised: 02/05/2024] [Accepted: 02/07/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the epidemiological value of monitoring wastewater into sharp focus. The challenges of implementing and optimising wastewater monitoring vary significantly from one region to another, often due to the array of different wastewater systems around the globe, as well as the availability of resources to undertake the required analyses (e.g. laboratory infrastructure and expertise). Here we reflect on the local and shared challenges of implementing a SARS-CoV-2 monitoring programme in two geographically and socio-economically distinct regions, São Paulo state (Brazil) and Wales (UK), focusing on design, laboratory methods and data analysis, and identifying potential guiding principles for wastewater surveillance fit for the 21st century. Our results highlight the historical nature of region-specific challenges to the implementation of wastewater surveillance, including previous experience of using wastewater surveillance, stakeholders involved, and nature of wastewater infrastructure. Building on those challenges, we then highlight what an ideal programme would look like if restrictions such as resource were not a constraint. Finally, we demonstrate the value of bringing multidisciplinary skills and international networks together for effective wastewater surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mariana Cardoso Chrispim
- Environmental and Biosciences Department, School of Business, Innovation and Sustainability, Halmstad University, Kristian IV:s väg 3, 30118 Halmstad, Sweden
| | - Mikaela Renata Funada Barbosa
- Environmental Analysis Department, Environmental Company of the São Paulo State (CETESB), Av. Prof. Frederico Hermann Jr., 345, São Paulo CEP 05459-900, Brazil; NARA - Center for Research in Environmental Risk Assessment, School of Public Health, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Marcelo de Souza Lauretto
- NARA - Center for Research in Environmental Risk Assessment, School of Public Health, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil; School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of Sao Paulo, Rua Arlindo Bettio, 1000, São Paulo CEP 03828-000, Brazil
| | - Maria Tereza Pepe Razzolini
- NARA - Center for Research in Environmental Risk Assessment, School of Public Health, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil; School of Public Health, University of Sao Paulo, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
- NARA - Center for Research in Environmental Risk Assessment, School of Public Health, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil; School of Public Health, University of Sao Paulo, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Owen Jones
- School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 4AG, UK
| | - Davey L Jones
- Environment Centre Wales, Bangor University, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK; Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch WA 6105, Australia
| | | | - Maria Inês Zanoli Sato
- Environmental Analysis Department, Environmental Company of the São Paulo State (CETESB), Av. Prof. Frederico Hermann Jr., 345, São Paulo CEP 05459-900, Brazil; NARA - Center for Research in Environmental Risk Assessment, School of Public Health, Environmental Health Department, Av. Dr Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Cassiana Montagner
- Environmental Chemistry Laboratory, Institute of Chemistry, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo 13083970, Brazil
| | - Isabelle Durance
- School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.
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Xu Y, Ma T, Yuan Z, Tian J, Zhao N. Spatial patterns in pollution discharges from livestock and poultry farm and the linkage between manure nutrients load and the carrying capacity of croplands in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 901:166006. [PMID: 37541506 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/06/2023]
Abstract
The rapid development of livestock and poultry farming in China has resulted in an increasing threat of water pollution. In particular, mitigating livestock-related pollutant discharges is a key issue for environmental sustainability, especially for inland surface water bodies. In order to ensure the effective control of pollution and the efficient utilization management of livestock manure, spatially explicit surveys of pollutant generation and discharge from the livestock sector must be performed. In the present study, we estimated the grid cell-level distributions in the generation and discharge of four typical pollutants (chemical oxygen demand, ammonium nitrogen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus) from the livestock sector across the country with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds. The distributions were estimated using the most recent pollution source census data and multi-sourced ancillary materials by a dasymetric mapping approach. We further investigated the feasibility of the resource utilization of livestock manure by comparing manure-source nutrients with the carrying capacity of adjacent croplands. Our results show that low-intensive farming generated and discharged the majority of livestock farming pollution, with other cattle and pigs breeding identified as the two major sources of pollution from the livestock sector. Southwest, Central and East China suffered the highly densified pollutants generation and discharges. Furthermore, cropland exceeding its carrying capacity was concentrated in these regions. Our findings provide additional insights into livestock and poultry farming in the context of relocation, strengthening regulation, transforming breeding operations, and rationalizing the resource use of manure, all of which are important measures for the sustainable development of both agriculture and the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxuan Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Ting Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Ze Yuan
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Jiaxin Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Na Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
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3
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Sturm ET, Thomas ML, Sares AG, Dave S, Baron D, Compton MT, Palmer BW, Jester DJ, Jeste DV. Review of Major Social Determinants of Health in Schizophrenia-Spectrum Disorders: II. Assessments. Schizophr Bull 2023; 49:851-866. [PMID: 37022911 PMCID: PMC10318889 DOI: 10.1093/schbul/sbad024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Social determinants of health (SDoHs) impact the development and course of schizophrenia-spectrum psychotic disorders (SSPDs). Yet, we found no published scholarly reviews of psychometric properties and pragmatic utility of SDoH assessments among people with SSPDs. We aim to review those aspects of SDoH assessments. STUDY DESIGN PsychInfo, PubMed, and Google Scholar databases were examined to obtain data on reliability, validity, administration process, strengths, and limitations of the measures for SDoHs identified in a paired scoping review. STUDY RESULTS SDoHs were assessed using different approaches including self-reports, interviews, rating scales, and review of public databases. Of the major SDoHs, early-life adversities, social disconnection, racism, social fragmentation, and food insecurity had measures with satisfactory psychometric properties. Internal consistency reliabilities-evaluated in the general population for 13 measures of early-life adversities, social disconnection, racism, social fragmentation, and food insecurity-ranged from poor to excellent (0.68-0.96). The number of items varied from 1 to more than 100 and administration time ranged from less than 5 minutes to over an hour. Measures of urbanicity, low socioeconomic status, immigration status, homelessness/housing instability, and incarceration were based on public records or targeted sampling. CONCLUSIONS Although the reported assessments of SDoHs show promise, there is a need to develop and test brief but validated screening measures suitable for clinical application. Novel assessment tools, including objective assessments at individual and community levels utilizing new technology, and sophisticated psychometric evaluations for reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change with effective interventions are recommended, and suggestions for training curricula are offered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily T Sturm
- Department of Psychology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Michael L Thomas
- Department of Psychology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Anastasia G Sares
- Department of Psychology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | | | - David Baron
- Western University of Health Sciences, CA, USA
| | - Michael T Compton
- Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians & Surgeons, and New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY, USA
| | - Barton W Palmer
- Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
- Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System, Mental Illness Research, Education, and Clinical Center, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Dylan J Jester
- Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Dilip V Jeste
- Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA (Retired)
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4
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Li Y, Ran Z, Tsai L, Williams S. Using call detail records to determine mobility patterns of different socio-demographic groups in the western area of Sierra Leone during early COVID-19 crisis. ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING. B, URBAN ANALYTICS AND CITY SCIENCE 2023; 50:1298-1312. [PMID: 38603005 PMCID: PMC10247678 DOI: 10.1177/23998083231158377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
Human mobility patterns created from mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) can provide an essential resource in data-poor environments to monitor the effects of health outbreaks. Analysis of this data can be instrumental for understanding the movement pattern of populations allowing governments to set and refine policies to respond to community health risks. Building on CDR mobility analysis techniques, this research set out to test whether combining CDR mobility indicators with socio-economic information can illustrate differences between different socio-economic groups' exposure risks to COVID-19. The work focuses on the Western Area of Sierra Leone which houses the capital Freetown because it lacks existing mobility data and therefore can be a great example of how CDR can be transformed for this use. To determine mobility patterns, we applied the radius of gyration, regularity of movement, and motif types analytics commonly used in CDR research. We then applied a clustering algorithm to these results to understand user trends. Then we compared the results of the three methods with socio-economic status determined from census data in the same geography. The results show the daily movement of cell phone users of lower socio-economic status covered greater distances in the Western Area before and after lockdown, thereby showing a greater risk to COVID-19. The research also shows that groups of higher social status decreased mobility significantly after lockdown and did not return to pre-COVID-19 levels, unlike lower-social status groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanchao Li
- Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
| | - Ziyu Ran
- Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
| | - Lily Tsai
- Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
| | - Sarah Williams
- Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
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Reimann L, Jones B, Bieker N, Wolff C, Aerts JCJH, Vafeidis AT. Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2630. [PMID: 37149629 PMCID: PMC10164174 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38278-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lena Reimann
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany.
- CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, 135 E 22nd St, New York City, NY, 10010, USA.
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Bryan Jones
- CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, 135 E 22nd St, New York City, NY, 10010, USA
| | - Nora Bieker
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany
| | - Claudia Wolff
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany
| | - Jeroen C J H Aerts
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Athanasios T Vafeidis
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany
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Okmi M, Por LY, Ang TF, Al-Hussein W, Ku CS. A Systematic Review of Mobile Phone Data in Crime Applications: A Coherent Taxonomy Based on Data Types and Analysis Perspectives, Challenges, and Future Research Directions. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:s23094350. [PMID: 37177554 PMCID: PMC10181620 DOI: 10.3390/s23094350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Revised: 04/23/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Digital technologies have recently become more advanced, allowing for the development of social networking sites and applications. Despite these advancements, phone calls and text messages still make up the largest proportion of mobile data usage. It is possible to study human communication behaviors and mobility patterns using the useful information that mobile phone data provide. Specifically, the digital traces left by the large number of mobile devices provide important information that facilitates a deeper understanding of human behavior and mobility configurations for researchers in various fields, such as criminology, urban sensing, transportation planning, and healthcare. Mobile phone data record significant spatiotemporal (i.e., geospatial and time-related data) and communication (i.e., call) information. These can be used to achieve different research objectives and form the basis of various practical applications, including human mobility models based on spatiotemporal interactions, real-time identification of criminal activities, inference of friendship interactions, and density distribution estimation. The present research primarily reviews studies that have employed mobile phone data to investigate, assess, and predict human communication and mobility patterns in the context of crime prevention. These investigations have sought, for example, to detect suspicious activities, identify criminal networks, and predict crime, as well as understand human communication and mobility patterns in urban sensing applications. To achieve this, a systematic literature review was conducted on crime research studies that were published between 2014 and 2022 and listed in eight electronic databases. In this review, we evaluated the most advanced methods and techniques used in recent criminology applications based on mobile phone data and the benefits of using this information to predict crime and detect suspected criminals. The results of this literature review contribute to improving the existing understanding of where and how populations live and socialize and how to classify individuals based on their mobility patterns. The results show extraordinary growth in studies that utilized mobile phone data to study human mobility and movement patterns compared to studies that used the data to infer communication behaviors. This observation can be attributed to privacy concerns related to acquiring call detail records (CDRs). Additionally, most of the studies used census and survey data for data validation. The results show that social network analysis tools and techniques have been widely employed to detect criminal networks and urban communities. In addition, correlation analysis has been used to investigate spatial-temporal patterns of crime, and ambient population measures have a significant impact on crime rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed Okmi
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
- Department of Information Technology and Security, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
| | - Lip Yee Por
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Tan Fong Ang
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Ward Al-Hussein
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Chin Soon Ku
- Department of Computer Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kampar 31900, Malaysia
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7
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Lind A, Wu S, Hadachi A. Application of Gaussian Mixtures in a Multimodal Kalman Filter to Estimate the State of a Nonlinearly Moving System Using Sparse Inaccurate Measurements in a Cellular Radio Network. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:3603. [PMID: 37050661 PMCID: PMC10098955 DOI: 10.3390/s23073603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Kalman filter is a well-established accuracy correction method in control, guidance, and navigation. With the popularity of mobile communication and ICT, Kalman Filter has been used in many new applications related to positioning based on spatiotemporal data from the cellular network. Despite the low accuracy compared to Global Positioning System, the method is an excellent supplement to other positioning technologies. It is often used in sensor fusion setups as a complementary source. One of the reasons for the Kalman Filter's inaccuracy lies in naive radio coverage approximation techniques based on multivariate normal distributions assumed by previous studies. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated those disadvantages and proposed a Gaussian mixtures model to address the non-arbitrary shape of the radio cells' coverage area. Having incorporated the Gaussian mixtures model into Switching Kalman Filter, we achieved better accuracy in positioning within the cellular network.
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8
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Iyer S, Karrer B, Citron DT, Kooti F, Maas P, Wang Z, Giraudy E, Medhat A, Dow PA, Pompe A. Large-scale measurement of aggregate human colocation patterns for epidemiological modeling. Epidemics 2023; 42:100663. [PMID: 36724622 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Revised: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
To understand and model public health emergencies, epidemiologists need data that describes how humans are moving and interacting across physical space. Such data has traditionally been difficult for researchers to obtain with the temporal resolution and geographic breadth that is needed to study, for example, a global pandemic. This paper describes Colocation Maps, which are spatial network datasets that have been developed within Meta's Data For Good program. These Maps estimate how often people from different regions are colocated: in particular, for a pair of geographic regions x and y, these Maps estimate the rate at which a randomly chosen person from x and a randomly chosen person from y are simultaneously located in the same place during a randomly chosen minute in a given week. These datasets are well suited to parametrize metapopulation models of disease spread or to measure temporal changes in interactions between people from different regions; indeed, they have already been used for both of these purposes during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we show how Colocation Maps differ from existing data sources, describe how the datasets are built, provide examples of their use in compartmental modeling, and summarize ideas for further development of these and related datasets. Among the findings of this study, we observe that a pair of regions can exhibit high colocation despite few people moving between those regions. Additionally, for the purposes of clarifying how to interpret and utilize Colocation Maps, we scrutinize the Maps' built-in assumptions about representativeness and contact heterogeneity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shankar Iyer
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States.
| | - Brian Karrer
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States
| | | | - Farshad Kooti
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States
| | - Paige Maas
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States
| | - Zeyu Wang
- Department of Economics, Stanford University, 579 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305, United States
| | | | - Ahmed Medhat
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States
| | - P Alex Dow
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States
| | - Alex Pompe
- Meta, 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States
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Tatem AJ. Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response. Epidemics 2022; 41:100641. [PMID: 36228440 PMCID: PMC9534780 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Revised: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, UK
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10
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How accurate are WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population data at the cell-level?: A simulation analysis in urban Namibia. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0271504. [PMID: 35862480 PMCID: PMC9302737 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 07/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived from census data have become widely used by development researchers and practitioners; however, accuracy in these datasets are evaluated at the spatial scale of model input data which is generally courser than the neighbourhood or cell-level scale of many applications. We simulate a realistic synthetic 2016 population in Khomas, Namibia, a majority urban region, and introduce several realistic levels of outdatedness (over 15 years) and inaccuracy in slum, non-slum, and rural areas. We aggregate the synthetic populations by census and administrative boundaries (to mimic census data), resulting in 32 gridded population datasets that are typical of LMIC settings using the WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population approach. We evaluate the cell-level accuracy of these gridded population datasets using the original synthetic population as a reference. In our simulation, we found large cell-level errors, particularly in slum cells. These were driven by the averaging of population densities in large areal units before model training. Age, accuracy, and aggregation of the input data also played a role in these errors. We suggest incorporating finer-scale training data into gridded population models generally, and WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained in particular (e.g., from routine household surveys or slum community population counts), and use of new building footprint datasets as a covariate to improve cell-level accuracy (as done in some new WorldPop-Global-Constrained datasets). It is important to measure accuracy of gridded population datasets at spatial scales more consistent with how the data are being applied, especially if they are to be used for monitoring key development indicators at neighbourhood scales within cities.
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11
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Exploring Environmental Health Inequalities: A Scientometric Analysis of Global Research Trends (1970-2020). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19127394. [PMID: 35742642 PMCID: PMC9223819 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19127394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 06/11/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Environmental health inequalities (EHI), understood as differences in environmental health factors and in health outcomes caused by environmental conditions, are studied by a wide range of disciplines. This results in challenges to both synthesizing key knowledge domains of the field. This study aims to uncover the global research status and trends in EHI research, and to derive a conceptual framework for the underlying mechanisms of EHI. In total, 12,320 EHI publications were compiled from the Web of Science core collection from 1970 to 2020. Scientometric analysis was adopted to characterize the research activity, distribution, focus, and trends. Content analysis was conducted for the highlight work identified from network analysis. Keyword co-occurrence and cluster analysis were applied to identify the knowledge domain and develop the EHI framework. The results show that there has been a steady increase in numbers of EHI publications, active journals, and involved disciplines, countries, and institutions since the 2000s, with marked differences between countries in the number of published articles and active institutions. In the recent decade, environment-related disciplines have gained importance in addition to social and health sciences. This study proposes a framework to conceptualize the multi-facetted issues in EHI research referring to existing key concepts.
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12
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Lavelle-Hill R, Harvey J, Smith G, Mazumder A, Ellis M, Mwantimwa K, Goulding J. Using mobile money data and call detail records to explore the risks of urban migration in Tanzania. EPJ DATA SCIENCE 2022; 11:28. [PMID: 35571071 PMCID: PMC9079216 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00340-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Understanding what factors predict whether an urban migrant will end up in a deprived neighbourhood or not could help prevent the exploitation of vulnerable individuals. This study leveraged pseudonymized mobile money interactions combined with cell phone data to shed light on urban migration patterns and deprivation in Tanzania. Call detail records were used to identify individuals who migrated to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's largest city. A street survey of the city's subwards was used to determine which individuals moved to more deprived areas. t-tests showed that people who settled in poorer neighbourhoods had less money coming into their mobile money account after they moved, but not before. A machine learning approach was then utilized to predict which migrants will move to poorer areas of the city, making them arguably more vulnerable to poverty, unemployment and exploitation. Features indicating the strength and location of people's social connections in Dar es Salaam before they moved ('pull factors') were found to be most predictive, more so than traditional 'push factors' such as proxies for poverty in the migrant's source region. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00340-y.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rosa Lavelle-Hill
- University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
- The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
| | - John Harvey
- The University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Gavin Smith
- The University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
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Voukelatou V, Miliou I, Giannotti F, Pappalardo L. Understanding peace through the world news. EPJ DATA SCIENCE 2022; 11:2. [PMID: 35079561 PMCID: PMC8777429 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 12/26/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasiliki Voukelatou
- Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council (ISTI-CNR), Pisa, Italy
| | - Ioanna Miliou
- Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Fosca Giannotti
- Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council (ISTI-CNR), Pisa, Italy
| | - Luca Pappalardo
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council (ISTI-CNR), Pisa, Italy
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Lai S, Sorichetta A, Steele J, Ruktanonchai CW, Cunningham AD, Rogers G, Koper P, Woods D, Bondarenko M, Ruktanonchai NW, Shi W, Tatem AJ. Global holiday datasets for understanding seasonal human mobility and population dynamics. Sci Data 2022; 9:17. [PMID: 35058466 PMCID: PMC8776767 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01120-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Public and school holidays have important impacts on population mobility and dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales, subsequently affecting the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and many socioeconomic activities. However, worldwide data on public and school holidays for understanding their changes across regions and years have not been assembled into a single, open-source and multitemporal dataset. To address this gap, an open access archive of data on public and school holidays in 2010-2019 across the globe at daily, weekly, and monthly timescales was constructed. Airline passenger volumes across 90 countries from 2010 to 2018 were also assembled to illustrate the usage of the holiday data for understanding the changing spatiotemporal patterns of population movements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK.
| | - Alessandro Sorichetta
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Jessica Steele
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Corrine W Ruktanonchai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA
| | - Alexander D Cunningham
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Grant Rogers
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Patrycja Koper
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Dorothea Woods
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Maksym Bondarenko
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Nick W Ruktanonchai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA
| | - Weifeng Shi
- School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Taian, 271000, China
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
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Kashyap R. Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem. Population Studies 2021; 75:47-75. [PMID: 34902280 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1969031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the 'big data' era or the 'data revolution'. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of 'old' big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of 'new' big data sources, such as 'digital traces' generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of 'digital demography'. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field.
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Rathinam F, Khatua S, Siddiqui Z, Malik M, Duggal P, Watson S, Vollenweider X. Using big data for evaluating development outcomes: A systematic map. CAMPBELL SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS 2021; 17:e1149. [PMID: 37051451 PMCID: PMC8354555 DOI: 10.1002/cl2.1149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Policy makers need access to reliable data to monitor and evaluate the progress of development outcomes and targets such as sustainable development outcomes (SDGs). However, significant data and evidence gaps remain. Lack of resources, limited capacity within governments and logistical difficulties in collecting data are some of the reasons for the data gaps. Big data-that is digitally generated, passively produced and automatically collected-offers a great potential for answering some of the data needs. Satellite and sensors, mobile phone call detail records, online transactions and search data, and social media are some of the examples of big data. Integrating big data with the traditional household surveys and administrative data can complement data availability, quality, granularity, accuracy and frequency, and help measure development outcomes temporally and spatially in a number of new ways.The study maps different sources of big data onto development outcomes (based on SDGs) to identify current evidence base, use and the gaps. The map provides a visual overview of existing and ongoing studies. This study also discusses the risks, biases and ethical challenges in using big data for measuring and evaluating development outcomes. The study is a valuable resource for evaluators, researchers, funders, policymakers and practitioners in their effort to contributing to evidence informed policy making and in achieving the SDGs. OBJECTIVES Identify and appraise rigorous impact evaluations (IEs), systematic reviews and the studies that have innovatively used big data to measure any development outcomes with special reference to difficult contexts. SEARCH METHODS A number of general and specialised data bases and reporsitories of organisations were searched using keywords related to big data by an information specialist. SELECTION CRITERIA The studies were selected on basis of whether they used big data sources to measure or evaluate development outcomes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Data collection was conducted using a data extraction tool and all extracted data was entered into excel and then analysed using Stata. The data analysis involved looking at trends and descriptive statistics only. MAIN RESULTS The search yielded over 17,000 records, which we then screened down to 437 studies which became the foundation of our systematic map. We found that overall, there is a sizable and rapidly growing number of measurement studies using big data but a much smaller number of IEs. We also see that the bulk of the big data sources are machine-generated (mostly satellites) represented in the light blue. We find that satellite data was used in over 70% of the measurement studies and in over 80% of the IEs. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS This map gives us a sense that there is a lot of work being done to develop appropriate measures using big data which could subsequently be used in IEs. Information on costs, ethics, transparency is lacking in the studies and more work is needed in this area to understand the efficacies related to the use of big data. There are a number of outcomes which are not being studied using big data, either due to the lack to applicability such as education or due to lack of awareness about the new methods and data sources. The map points to a number of gaps as well as opportunities where future researchers can conduct research.
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Pappalardo L, Ferres L, Sacasa M, Cattuto C, Bravo L. Evaluation of home detection algorithms on mobile phone data using individual-level ground truth. EPJ DATA SCIENCE 2021; 10:29. [PMID: 34094810 PMCID: PMC8170634 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00284-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Inferring mobile phone users' home location, i.e., assigning a location in space to a user based on data generated by the mobile phone network, is a central task in leveraging mobile phone data to study social and urban phenomena. Despite its widespread use, home detection relies on assumptions that are difficult to check without ground truth, i.e., where the individual who owns the device resides. In this paper, we present a dataset that comprises the mobile phone activity of sixty-five participants for whom the geographical coordinates of their residence location are known. The mobile phone activity refers to Call Detail Records (CDRs), eXtended Detail Records (XDRs), and Control Plane Records (CPRs), which vary in their temporal granularity and differ in the data generation mechanism. We provide an unprecedented evaluation of the accuracy of home detection algorithms and quantify the amount of data needed for each stream to carry out successful home detection for each stream. Our work is useful for researchers and practitioners to minimize data requests and maximize the accuracy of the home antenna location. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00284-9.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luca Pappalardo
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies (ISTI), National Research Council (CNR), Pisa, Italy
| | - Leo Ferres
- Faculty of Engineering, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile
- Telefónica R&D, Santiago, Chile
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
| | | | - Ciro Cattuto
- University of Turin, Turin, Italy
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
| | - Loreto Bravo
- Faculty of Engineering, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile
- Telefónica R&D, Santiago, Chile
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18
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Huang B, Wang J, Cai J, Yao S, Chan PKS, Tam THW, Hong YY, Ruktanonchai CW, Carioli A, Floyd JR, Ruktanonchai NW, Yang W, Li Z, Tatem AJ, Lai S. Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities. Nat Hum Behav 2021; 5:695-705. [PMID: 33603201 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2020] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city's population density and social contact patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Huang
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR. .,Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR. .,Department of Sociology and Center for Population Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR.
| | - Jionghua Wang
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
| | | | - Shiqi Yao
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Paul Kay Sheung Chan
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR. .,Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR.
| | - Tony Hong-Wing Tam
- Department of Sociology and Center for Population Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Ying-Yi Hong
- Department of Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Corrine W Ruktanonchai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.,Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Alessandra Carioli
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Jessica R Floyd
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Nick W Ruktanonchai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.,Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Weizhong Yang
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Zhongjie Li
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
| | - Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.,School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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19
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Salat H, Smoreda Z, Schläpfer M. A method to estimate population densities and electricity consumption from mobile phone data in developing countries. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0235224. [PMID: 32603345 PMCID: PMC7326166 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Accepted: 06/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
High quality census data are not always available in developing countries. Instead, mobile phone data are becoming a popular proxy to evaluate the density, activity and social characteristics of a population. They offer additional advantages: they are updated in real-time, include mobility information and record visitors' activity. However, we show with the example of Senegal that the direct correlation between the average phone activity and both the population density and the nighttime lights intensity may be insufficiently high to provide an accurate representation of the situation. There are reasons to expect this, such as the heterogeneity of the market share or the particular granularity of the distribution of cell towers. In contrast, we present a method based on the daily, weekly and yearly phone activity curves and on the network characteristics of the mobile phone data, that allows to estimate more accurately such information without compromising people's privacy. This information can be vital for development and infrastructure planning. In particular, this method could help to reduce significantly the logistic costs of data collection in the particularly budget-constrained context of developing countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hadrien Salat
- Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore-ETH Centre, ETH Zürich, Singapore, Singapore
- Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services department, Orange Labs, Châtillon, France
| | - Zbigniew Smoreda
- Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services department, Orange Labs, Châtillon, France
| | - Markus Schläpfer
- Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore-ETH Centre, ETH Zürich, Singapore, Singapore
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20
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Yabe T, Tsubouchi K, Fujiwara N, Sekimoto Y, Ukkusuri SV. Understanding post-disaster population recovery patterns. J R Soc Interface 2020; 17:20190532. [PMID: 32070218 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the rising importance of enhancing community resilience to disasters, our understandings on when, how and why communities are able to recover from such extreme events are limited. Here, we study the macroscopic population recovery patterns in disaster affected regions, by observing human mobility trajectories of over 1.9 million mobile phone users across three countries before, during and after five major disasters. We find that, despite the diversity in socio-economic characteristics among the affected regions and the types of hazards, population recovery trends after significant displacement resemble similar patterns after all five disasters. Moreover, the heterogeneity in initial and long-term displacement rates across communities in the three countries were explained by a set of key common factors, including the community's median income level, population, housing damage rates and the connectedness to other cities. Such insights discovered from large-scale empirical data could assist policymaking in various disciplines for developing community resilience to disasters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takahiro Yabe
- Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
| | | | - Naoya Fujiwara
- Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.,Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Satish V Ukkusuri
- Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
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21
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Lai S, Farnham A, Ruktanonchai NW, Tatem AJ. Measuring mobility, disease connectivity and individual risk: a review of using mobile phone data and mHealth for travel medicine. J Travel Med 2019; 26:taz019. [PMID: 30869148 PMCID: PMC6904325 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taz019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2019] [Revised: 03/08/2019] [Accepted: 03/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
RATIONALE FOR REVIEW The increasing mobility of populations allows pathogens to move rapidly and far, making endemic or epidemic regions more connected to the rest of the world than at any time in history. However, the ability to measure and monitor human mobility, health risk and their changing patterns across spatial and temporal scales using traditional data sources has been limited. To facilitate a better understanding of the use of emerging mobile phone technology and data in travel medicine, we reviewed relevant work aiming at measuring human mobility, disease connectivity and health risk in travellers using mobile geopositioning data. KEY FINDINGS Despite some inherent biases of mobile phone data, analysing anonymized positions from mobile users could precisely quantify the dynamical processes associated with contemporary human movements and connectivity of infectious diseases at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Moreover, recent progress in mobile health (mHealth) technology and applications, integrating with mobile positioning data, shows great potential for innovation in travel medicine to monitor and assess real-time health risk for individuals during travel. CONCLUSIONS Mobile phones and mHealth have become a novel and tremendously powerful source of information on measuring human movements and origin-destination-specific risks of infectious and non-infectious health issues. The high penetration rate of mobile phones across the globe provides an unprecedented opportunity to quantify human mobility and accurately estimate the health risks in travellers. Continued efforts are needed to establish the most promising uses of these data and technologies for travel health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, SE Stockholm, Sweden
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Dongan Road, Shanghai, China
| | - Andrea Farnham
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Public Health, Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Nick W Ruktanonchai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, SE Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, SE Stockholm, Sweden
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