Hot climate, hot koalas: the role of weather, behaviour and disease on thermoregulation

Thermoregulation is critical for endotherms living in hot, dry conditions, and maintaining optimal core body temperature (Tb) in a changing climate is an increasingly challenging task for mammals. Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) have evolved physiological and behavioural strategies to maintain homeostasis and regulate their Tb but are thought to be vulnerable to prolonged heat. We investigated how weather, behaviour and disease influence Tb for wild, free-living koalas during summer in north-west New South Wales. We matched Tb with daily behavioural observations in an ageing population where chlamydial disease is prevalent. Each individual koala had similar Tb rhythms (average Tb = 36.4 ± 0.05°C), but male koalas had higher Tb amplitude and more pronounced daily rhythm than females. Disease disrupted the 24-hr circadian pattern of Tb. Koala Tb increased with ambient temperature (Ta). On the hottest day of the study (maximum Ta = 40.8°C), we recorded the highest (Tb = 40.8°C) but also the lowest (Tb = 32.4°C) Tb ever documented for wild koalas, suggesting that they are more heterothermic than previously recognized. This requires individuals to predict days of extreme Ta from overnight and early morning conditions, adjusting Tb regulation accordingly, and it has never been reported before for koalas. The large diel amplitude and low minimum Tb observed suggest that koalas at our study site are energetically and nutritionally compromised, likely due to their age. Behaviour (i.e. tree hugging and drinking water) was not effective in moderating Tb. These results indicate that Ta and koala Tb are strongly interconnected and reinforce the importance of climate projections for predicting the future persistence of koalas throughout their current distribution. Global climate models forecast that dry, hot weather will continue to escalate and drought events will increase in frequency, duration and severity. This is likely to push koalas and other arboreal folivores towards their thermal limit.

Emerging arguments for reproductive technologies in wildlife and their implications for assisted reproduction and conservation of threatened marsupials

Assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) have significant potential to make a meaningful contribution to the conservation of threatened wildlife. This is true of Australia's iconic, and endangered koala (Phascolarctos cinereus). If developed, ARTs could offer a solution to manage genetic diversity and costs in breeding programs and may provide frozen repositories for either insurance or the practical production of genetically resilient koalas for release and on-ground recovery. Holding back the wider use of ARTs for koalas and other wildlife is a lack of funding to close the remaining knowledge gaps in the marsupial reproductive sciences and develop the reproductive tools needed. This lack of funding is arguably driven by a poor understanding of the potential contribution ARTs could make to threatened species management. We present a review of our cross-disciplinary and accessible strategy to draw much needed public attention and funding for the development of ARTs in wildlife, using emerging cost and genetic modelling arguments and the koala as a case study.

Revisiting the 4 R’s: Improving post-release outcomes for rescued mammalian wildlife by fostering behavioral competence during rehabilitation

Rescue, rehabilitation, and release (‘rescue-rehab-release’) of wildlife is an increasingly widespread practice across ecosystems, largely driven by habitat loss, wildlife exploitation and a changing climate. Despite this, its conservation value has not been realized, in part due to the scarcity of what has been termed “the 4th R”, research. Similar to conservation breeding and headstarting, rescue and rehabilitation entails close association of humans and the wildlife in their care over impressionable and extended periods. However, unlike these interventions, rescue and rehabilitation require an initial, and sometimes sustained, focus on crisis management and veterinary needs which can impede the development of natural behaviors and promote habituation to humans, both of which can compromise post-release survival and recruitment. In this perspective, we discuss the pathways toward, and implications of, behavioral incompetence and highlight opportunities for testable interventions to curtail negative outcomes post-release, without compromising the health or welfare of rescued individuals. We propose that practitioners ‘switch gears’ from triage to fostering behavioral competence as early in the rehabilitation process as is possible, and that research be implemented in order to develop an evidence-base for best practices that can be shared amongst practitioners. We focus on four mammalian species to illustrate specific contexts and considerations for fostering behavioral competence by building on research in the conservation translocation literature. Finally, we discuss a way forward that calls for greater cross-pollination among translocation scenarios involving extended time under human care during developmentally sensitive periods.

Modelling Genetic Benefits and Financial Costs of Integrating Biobanking into the Captive Management of Koalas

Simple Summary

Managed wildlife breeding faces high costs and genetic diversity challenges associated with caring for small populations. Biobanking (freezing of sex cells and tissues for use in assisted breeding) and associated reproductive technologies could help alleviate these issues in koala captive management by enhancing retention of genetic diversity in captive-bred animals and lowering program costs through reductions in the size of the required live captive colonies. Australia’s zoos and wildlife hospitals provide rare opportunities to refine and cost-effectively integrate these tools into conservation outcomes for koalas due to extensive already-existing infrastructure, technical expertise, and captive animals.

Abstract

Zoo and wildlife hospital networks are set to become a vital component of Australia’s contemporary efforts to conserve the iconic and imperiled koala (Phascolarctos cinereus). Managed breeding programs held across zoo-based networks typically face high economic costs and can be at risk of adverse genetic effects typical of unavoidably small captive colonies. Emerging evidence suggests that biobanking and associated assisted reproductive technologies could address these economic and genetic challenges. We present a modelled scenario, supported by detailed costings, where these technologies are optimized and could be integrated into conservation breeding programs of koalas across the established zoo and wildlife hospital network. Genetic and economic modelling comparing closed captive koala populations suggest that supplementing them with cryopreserved founder sperm using artificial insemination or intracytoplasmic sperm injection could substantially reduce inbreeding, lower the required colony sizes of conservation breeding programs, and greatly reduce program costs. Ambitious genetic retention targets (maintaining 90%, 95% and 99% of source population heterozygosity for 100 years) could be possible within realistic cost frameworks, with output koalas suited for wild release. Integrating biobanking into the zoo and wildlife hospital network presents a cost-effective and financially feasible model for the uptake of these tools due to the technical and research expertise, captive koala colonies, and ex situ facilities that already exist across these networks.

Future-proofing the koala: synergising genomic and environmental data for effective species management

Climatic and evolutionary processes are inextricably linked to conservation. Avoiding extinction in rapidly changing environments often depends upon a species' capacity to adapt in the face of extreme selective pressures. Here, we employed exon capture and high-throughput next-generation sequencing to investigate the mechanisms underlying population structure and adaptive genetic variation in the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus), an iconic Australian marsupial that represents a unique conservation challenge because it is not uniformly threatened across its range. An examination of 250 specimens representing 91 wild source locations revealed that five major genetic clusters currently exist on a continental scale. The initial divergence of these clusters appears to have been concordant with the Mid-Brunhes Transition (∼ 430-300 kya), a major climatic reorganization that increased the amplitude of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. While signatures of polygenic selection and environmental adaptation were detected, strong evidence for repeated, climate-associated range contractions and demographic bottleneck events suggests that geographically isolated refugia may have played a more significant role in the survival of the koala through the Pleistocene glaciation than in situ adaptation. Consequently, the conservation of genome-wide genetic variation must be aligned with the protection of core koala habitat to increase the resilience of threatened populations to accelerating anthropogenic threats. Finally, we propose that the five major genetic clusters identified in this study should be accounted for in future koala conservation efforts (e.g. guiding translocations), as existing management divisions in the states of Queensland and New South Wales do not reflect historic or contemporary population structure.

Temporal effect of feeding on the body temperature and behaviour of captive koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Free-ranging koalas generally feed at night; however, captive koalas are usually fed during the day in order to encourage activity for display purposes. We studied the temporal effect of feeding on body temperature of captive koalas in Queensland, to determine whether nocturnal feeding may be beneficial for koalas in warmer climates. Six adult koalas were implanted with thermal transmitters and data loggers, waxed together as a single package, to record internal body temperature. Koalas were exposed to two treatments: koalas were fed in the morning (between 0730 and 0830 hours) during the AM treatment or late afternoon (between 1700 and 1800 hours) for the PM treatment. The body temperature of koalas fed in the mornings was on average 0.5°C higher at its peak (P ≤ 0.01) when compared to koalas fed in the evening. Furthermore, the body temperature maxima of morning-fed koalas was reached ~2 h earlier in the afternoon, compared with those fed in the evening. There was no significant difference between behaviours associated with the two feeding regimes: inactivity (P = 0.840), feeding (P = 0.472) and activity (P = 0.634). We postulate that nocturnal feeding by koalas may be an adaptive mechanism that reduces diurnal heat load during times of high environmental temperatures.

Estimating koala density from incidental koala sightings in South-East Queensland, Australia (1997-2013), using a self-exciting spatio-temporal point process model

The koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, is an iconic Australian wildlife species facing a rapid decline in South-East Queensland (SEQLD). For conservation planning, the ability to estimate the size of koala populations is crucial. Systematic surveys are the most common approach to estimate koala populations but because of their cost they are often restricted to small geographic areas and are conducted infrequently. Public interest and participation in the collection of koala sighting data is increasing in popularity, but such data are generally not used for population estimation. We modeled monthly sightings of koalas reported by members of the public from 1997 to 2013 in SEQLD by developing a self-exciting spatio-temporal point process model. This allowed us to account for characteristics that are associated with koala presence (which vary over both space and time) while accounting for detection bias in the koala sighting process and addressing spatial clustering of observations. The density of koalas varied spatially due to the heterogeneous nature of koala habitat in SEQLD, with a mean density of 0.0019 koalas per km2 over the study period. The percentage of land areas with very low densities (0-0.0005 koalas per km2) remained similar throughout the study period representing, on average, 66% of the total study area. The approach described in this paper provides a useful starting point to allow greater use to be made of incidental koala sighting data. We propose that the model presented here could be used to combine systematic koala survey data (which is spatially restricted, but more precise) with koala sighting data (which is incidental and often biased by nature, but often collected over large geographical areas). Our approach could also be adopted for modeling the density of other wildlife species where data is collected in the same manner.

The environmental and ecological determinants of elevated Ross River Virus exposure in koalas residing in urban coastal landscapes

Koala populations in many areas of Australia have declined sharply in response to habitat loss, disease and the effects of climate change. Koalas may face further morbidity from endemic mosquito-borne viruses, but the impact of such viruses is currently unknown. Few seroprevalence studies in the wild exist and little is known of the determinants of exposure. Here, we exploited a large, spatially and temporally explicit koala survey to define the intensity of Ross River Virus (RRV) exposure in koalas residing in urban coastal environments in southeast Queensland, Australia. We demonstrate that RRV exposure in koalas is much higher (> 80%) than reported in other sero-surveys and that exposure is uniform across the urban coastal landscape. Uniformity in exposure is related to the presence of the major RRV mosquito vector, Culex annulirostris, and similarities in animal movement, tree use, and age-dependent increases in exposure risk. Elevated exposure ultimately appears to result from the confinement of remaining coastal koala habitat to the edges of permanent wetlands unsuitable for urban development and which produce large numbers of competent mosquito vectors. The results further illustrate that koalas and other RRV-susceptible vertebrates may serve as useful sentinels of human urban exposure in endemic areas.

Protocols for recording morphometric measurement of Indian Pangolin (Manis crassicaudata)

Accurate morphological description of species has essential implications in field identification and cladistics. Pangolins (Mammalia: Pholidota) are considered the world's most trafficked mammals. The Indian pangolin has a wide geographical distribution in the Indian subcontinent. However, morphoanatomical variations of M. crassicaudata across its range are poorly understood. The published morphoanatomical descriptions have disparities, partly due to the lack of standard protocols and procedures in morphometric data collection and reporting, thus making comparisons among different records less meaningful. This Method Article presents protocols and procedures to follow in morphometric data collection and reporting for M. Crassicaudata. Morphometric parameters can be measured and reported under three age classes; juvenile, sub-adult, and adult, as well as the sex to describe the species' sexual dimorphism. The proposed protocol includes 13 morphometric measurements of a pangolin body. Procedures to count and report the number of body scales with special reference to the body region of a pangolin and scale morph-type are described. Morphometry of the claws of forelimbs is described using the Curvature Linear Index [1].

Body temperature of free-ranging koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in south-east Queensland

The distribution of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Queensland is predicted to contract as a result of climate change, driven by the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves and drought. However, little is known about the physiological responses of this species to environmental extremes under field conditions. This study aimed to establish the efficacy of surgically implanted thermal radio transmitters and data loggers to measure the body temperature of free-ranging koalas across a range of environmental conditions and ambient temperatures. Five free-ranging koalas in southeast Queensland were implanted with thermal transmitters and data loggers waxed together as a single package. Body temperatures were recorded for variable periods ranging from 3 to 12 months. Diurnal rhythms in body temperature were detected irrespective of season. The long-term diurnal body temperature peak for all koalas occurred between 16:00 and 17:00 h and body temperature was 36.7-36.9 °C, the long-term nadir occurred between 07:00 and 08:00 h and body temperature was 35.4-35.7 °C. Koala body temperatures as low as 34.2 °C and as high as 39.0 °C were recorded. Thermolability became apparent when ambient temperatures were outside the deduced thermal neutral zone for koalas (14.5-24.5 °C): heat was accumulated during the day and dissipated during the cool of the night. While this study is the first to report on body temperature of free-ranging koalas in their normal behavioural context, further investigations are necessary to determine the physiological boundaries of the thermal niche for this species, in order to better equip models that will more accurately predict the impacts of climate change on koalas.

A method for rapid assessment of the distribution and conservation status of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) in an extended geographical region

Development of an effective conservation management strategy for the Indian pangolins (Manis crassicaudata) found in Sri Lanka is hindered due to lack of solid evidence based distribution and ecological data on Indian pangolins. We employed a rapid and cost-effective method based on reliable information by combining primary and secondary data. The method was predominantly based on secondary data from the official records maintained by the government and non-governmental institutions related to wildlife conservation. The primary data collection was carried out depending on the findings from the secondary data sources; i.e. structured interviews and field studies were carried out in the localities that identified from secondary data sources. As a source of primary data, the structured interviews were carried out with stakeholders including the officials of government and nongovernmental institutions, hunters and villagers of the identified localities.•

This method allows collecting quick and accurate data on the distribution, habitats and conservation threats for the species.

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Cost effective method to collect ecological data of elusive mammals in large areas.

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Efficient method to identify trends of pangolin related crimes and illicit trade.

The value of long-term citizen science data for monitoring koala populations

The active collection of wildlife sighting data by trained observers is expensive, restricted to small geographical areas and conducted infrequently. Reporting of wildlife sightings by members of the public provides an opportunity to collect wildlife data continuously over wider geographical areas, at lower cost. We used individual koala sightings reported by members of the public between 1997 and 2013 in South-East Queensland, Australia (n = 14,076 koala sightings) to describe spatial and temporal trends in koala presence, to estimate koala sighting density and to identify biases associated with sightings. Temporal trends in sightings mirrored the breeding season of koalas. Sightings were high in residential areas (63%), followed by agricultural (15%), and parkland (12%). The study area was divided into 57,780 one-square kilometer grid cells and grid cells with no sightings of koalas decreased over time (from 35% to 21%) indicative of a greater level of spatial overlap of koala home ranges and human activity areas over time. The density of reported koala sightings decreased as distance from primary and secondary roads increased, indicative of a higher search effort near roads. Our results show that koala sighting data can be used to refine koala distribution and population estimates derived from active surveying, on the condition that appropriate bias correction techniques are applied. Collecting koala absence and search effort information and conducting repeated searches for koalas in the same areas are useful approaches to improve the quality of sighting data in citizen science programs.

Needing a drink: Rainfall and temperature drive the use of free water by a threatened arboreal folivore

Arboreal folivores are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme climate change-driven heatwaves and droughts as they rely on leaf moisture to maintain hydration. During these increasingly frequent and intense weather events, leaf water content may not be enough to meet their moisture requirements, potentially leading to large-scale mortality due to dehydration. Water supplementation could be critical for the conservation of these animals. We tested artificial water stations for a threatened arboreal folivore, the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus), as a potential mitigation measure during hot and dry weather in New South Wales, Australia. We provided ground and tree drinkers to koalas and investigated changes in use with season, environmental conditions and foliar moisture. Our study provides first evidence of the regular use of free water by koalas. Koalas used supplemented water extensively throughout the year, even during cooler months. Time spent drinking varied with season and depended on days since last rain and temperature. The more days without rain, the more time koalas spent drinking. When temperature was high, visits to water stations were more frequent, indicating that in hot weather koalas need regular access to free water. Our results suggest that future changes in rainfall regimes and temperature in Australia have the potential to critically affect koala populations. Our conclusions can be applied to many other arboreal folivorous mammals worldwide which rely on leaves for their nutritional and water requirements. Artificial water stations may facilitate the resilience of vulnerable arboreal folivores during heat and drought events and may help mitigate the effects of climate change.

Physiological stress levels in wild koala sub-populations facing anthropogenic induced environmental trauma and disease

Australian small mammals such as koalas must cope with immense pressure from anthropogenic induced stressors or trauma such as bushfires, vehicle collision impacts and habitat disturbance and land clearance. In addition, they must cope with diseases such as chlamydia. To date, there is no published literature on physiological stress levels in wild koala populations compared with identified environmental stressors. This study investigated physiological stress levels within sub-populations of wild koalas encountering environmental trauma and disease from New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD) and South Australia (SA). Physiological stress was determined using a faecal glucocorticoid (or cortisol) metabolites (FGMs) enzyme-immunoassay (EIA) from 291 fresh faecal samples collected from wild koalas at the point of rescue. A healthy breeding sub-population from a forest reserve in QLD acted as a control group. Clearance of prime Eucalyptus habitat had the largest impact on FGMs, followed by bushfire related factors (e.g. flat demeanour, dehydration and burns injury). Koalas with other sources of physical injury (dog-attacks and vehicle collisions) and disease (chlamydia) also had higher FGMs compared to healthy wild koalas. Healthy wild koalas expressed the lowest median levels of FGMs. Overall, the results highlight that anthropogenic-induced stressors tend to increase physiological stress in wild koalas. Thus, the ultimate stressors such as habitat clearance and bush fire events could increase the incidences of proximate stressors such as dog attacks and vehicle collisions, and increase risks of foliage shortage, diseases and mortality. Therefore, there is need for ecological monitoring, conservation management actions and policy changes to curb the koala population crisis, especially within on-going and future land and road development programs.

Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for a gliding mammal in north-eastern Australia

We used MaxEnt to model the current distribution of the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) and to predict the likely shift in the species’ future distribution under climate-warming scenarios in the Wet Tropics (WT) Bioregion in north Queensland and in the South-eastern Queensland (SEQld) Bioregion, which encompasses south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Bioclimatic layers were used to generate models from 57 independent records in the WT and 428 records in SEQld. The modelled distribution of core habitat under current climate showed a good fit to the data, encompassing 91% and 88% of the records in each area, respectively. Modelling of future warming scenarios suggests that large contractions in distribution could occur in both bioregions. In the WT, 98% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming (1°C increase) and 100% under high warming (2−3°C increase) by 2070. In SEQld, 80% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming and 90% under high warming by 2070. These results suggest that this species is highly vulnerable to climate warming and highlight the importance of focusing conservation efforts at the bioregional scale. There is also a need to identify potential thermal refuges and ensure habitat connectivity.

Predicting the distribution of poorly-documented species, Northern black widow (Latrodectus variolus) and Black purse-web spider (Sphodros niger), using museum specimens and citizen science data

Predicting species distributions requires substantial numbers of georeferenced occurrences and access to remotely sensed climate and land cover data. Reliable estimates of the distribution of most species are unavailable, either because digitized georeferenced distributional data are rare or not digitized. The emergence of online biodiversity information databases and citizen science platforms dramatically improves the amount of information available to establish current and historical distribution of lesser-documented species. We demonstrate how the combination of museum and online citizen science databases can be used to build reliable distribution maps for poorly documented species. To do so, we investigated the distribution and the potential range expansions of two north-eastern North American spider species (Arachnida: Araneae), the Northern black widow (Latrodectus variolus) and the Black purse-web spider (Sphodros niger). Our results provide the first predictions of distribution for these two species. We also found that the Northern black widow has expanded north of its previously known range providing valuable information for public health education. For the Black purse-web spider, we identify potential habitats outside of its currently known range, thus providing a better understanding of the ecology of this poorly-documented species. We demonstrate that increasingly available online biodiversity databases are rapidly expanding biogeography research for conservation, ecology, and in specific cases, epidemiology, of lesser known taxa.

Fine-scale changes in spatial habitat use by a low-density koala population in an isolated periurban forest remnant

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in south-east Queensland are in decline. Although various studies have looked at broad-scale tree preference and habitat quality, there has been little attempt to quantify fine-scale activity shifts from one year to the next or examination of activity at the mesoscale. This study quantified koala activity levels in a 909-ha forest patch at Karawatha Forest Park, in south Brisbane. The Spot Assessment Technique was used to quantify activity and tree selection on 33 long-term monitoring plots in 2009 and 2010. In total, 843 trees were searched and koala pellets were found underneath 34 and 47 trees in 2009 and 2010, respectively. A higher proportion of pellets was found underneath Eucalyptus tindaliae and E. fibrosa and there was weak selection for larger trees. A low occurrence of revisits and a minor shift in activity distribution from 2009 to 2010 indicate that the koala population exists at a low density. Rapid declines in koala populations are occurring in primary habitats. Hence, stable low-density koala populations are important for maintaining genetic diversity and connectivity in fragmented urban landscapes.

Decline of the greater glider (Petauroides volans) in the lower Blue Mountains, New South Wales

The range of the greater glider (Petauroides volans) is predicted to contract with climate change. Following indications of a decline in the Blue Mountains, we collated records and undertook surveys in 2015–16 to assess whether a decline has occurred and whether the decline is associated with climate change or other factors. We were unable to relocate greater gliders at 35% of our study sites, even though all were in known former locations. The species is now rare at lower elevations but remains relatively common at higher elevations: about seven times more abundant above 500 m than below. Historical data suggest that in 1986–96 it occurred in similar abundance across all elevations, 80–1060 m. Nine habitat variables accounted for 84% of the variation in greater glider density between our study sites, with significant independent contributions from elevation (37%) and time since fire (23%). We found no evidence that greater gliders have been impacted by increasing numbers of owls or cockatoos or that either the fire regime or rainfall has changed in the last 20 years. The most likely cause of the decline is the direct and indirect effects of a marked increase in temperature in the Blue Mountains. Similar declines are likely throughout the distribution of the species with increasing climate change.

Development and field validation of a regional, management-scale habitat model: A koala Phascolarctos cinereus case study

Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional‐scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently‐collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2‐km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500‐m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground‐truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows (n = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground‐truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground‐truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site‐based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field‐validated models of similar resolution would assist in guiding management of conservation‐dependent species.

A review of climatic change as a determinant of the viability of koala populations

The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occupies a broad range of eastern and southern Australia, extending over tropical coastal, semiarid inland and temperate regions. In many areas koala populations are under threat, in particular from the direct and indirect effects of ongoing habitat destruction due to increased urbanisation and other anthropogenic processes. Climate change presents additional threats to the integrity of koala habitats because many species of food and non-food trees have narrow climate envelopes and are unable to adapt to altered temperatures and rainfall. Climate extremes also produce physiological stresses in koalas that may increase the likelihood of outbreaks of chlamydiosis and other diseases. Climate change–related increases in the relative content of toxic chemicals in leaves are further stresses to the koala after ingestion. In addition, populations that originated from a small number of founder individuals are at potential risk due to their relatively low genetic diversity. Strategies that maintain residual habitat fragments and promote the construction of new refugia are now being formulated. Modelling of the impact of habitat metrics on koala distribution is providing important information that can be used in the rehabilitation of koala refugia. In future these models could be augmented with metrics that describe koala homeostasis to inform local conservation strategies. These considerations are also relevant for the maintenance of other taxa in the wider ecosystem that are also at risk from habitat destruction and climate change.

Assessing the impact of historical and future climate change on potential natural vegetation types and net primary productivity in Australian grazing lands

The study investigated the impact of historical and future climate changes on potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and net primary productivity (NPP) in Australia, using the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System model and the Miami model coupled with climate of the 1931–70 and 1971–2010 periods and the projected climate in 2050. Twenty-eight vegetation classes were classified based on the key climate indicators with four of them being the major vegetation classes corresponding to Australian rangelands and accounting for 75% of total land area. There was a substantial shift in areas of vegetation classes from the 1931–70 period to the 1971–2010 period due to the increased rainfall over large areas across Australia. The modelling projected a range of changes in vegetation classes for 2050 depending on the climate-change scenario used. Many vegetation classes with more intense land use (e.g. steppe and forest) were projected to decrease in 2050, which may have significant impact on the grazing industry and biodiversity conservation. By 2050, NPP was projected to increase in central and northern Australia and to decrease in southern and eastern coastal areas and was projected to be higher on average than that of the 1931–70 period. The vegetation classes approximately corresponding to Australian rangelands mostly had increased NPP projections compared with the 1931–70 period. Although actual response will partially depend on human management activities, fire and extreme events, the projected increase in average NPP in 2050 indicates that Australian vegetation, particularly the rangeland vegetation, will likely be a net carbon sink rather than a carbon source by 2050, with the exception of a ‘warm-dry’ scenario.

Altered Immune Cytokine Expression Associated with KoRV B Infection and Season in Captive Koalas

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations are increasingly vulnerable and one of the main threats is chlamydial infection. Koala retrovirus (KoRV) has been proposed as an underlying cause of the koala’s susceptibility to infection with Chlamydia and high rates of lymphoid neoplasia; however, the regionally ubiquitous, endogenous nature of this virus suggests that KoRV A infection is not sufficient for immune suppression to occur. A recently discovered exogenous variant of KoRV, KoRV B, has several structural elements that cause increased pathogenicity in related retroviruses and was associated with lymphoid neoplasia in one study. The present study assesses whether KoRV B infection is associated with alterations in immune function. Cytokine gene expression by mitogen stimulated lymphocytes of KoRV B positive (n = 5–6) and negative (n = 6–7) captive koalas was evaluated by qPCR four times (April 2014-February 2015) to control for seasonal variation. Key immune genes in the Th1 pathway (IFNγ, TNFα), Th2 pathway (IL 10, IL4, IL6) and Th17 pathway (IL17A), along with CD4:CD8 ratio, were assessed. KoRV B positive koalas showed significantly increased up-regulation of IL17A and IL10 in three out of four sampling periods and IFNγ, IL6, IL4 and TNFα in two out of four. IL17A is an immune marker for chlamydial pathogenesis in the koala; increased expression of IL17A in KoRV B positive koalas, and concurrent immune dysregulation, may explain the differences in susceptibility to chlamydial infection and severity of disease seen between individuals and populations. There was also marked seasonal variation in up-regulation for most of the cytokines and the CD4:CD8 ratio. The up-regulation in both Th1 and Th2 cytokines mirrors changes associated with immune dysregulation in humans and felids as a result of retroviral infections. This is the first report of altered immune expression in koalas infected by an exogenous variant of KoRV and also the first report of seasonal variation in cytokine up-regulation and CD4:CD8 ratio in marsupials.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China

Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.

The Rescue and Rehabilitation of Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Southeast Queensland

Simple Summary

Little is understood about the overall success of current wildlife rehabilitation techniques and the implications of these as an effective conservation strategy. This study collated admission records from four major wildlife hospitals catering to sick and injured koalas across southeast Queensland from 2009 to 2014, and analyzed specific factors that may be important when quantifying the extent and effectiveness of this work. The study found koalas to be at an increased risk from urbanization and human disturbance, that various rehabilitation techniques are employed amongst the four wildlife hospitals, and that a majority of koalas are either euthanized or die whilst in care rather than being released back to the wild. These results provide an interesting insight into current koala rehabilitation practices and have important implications for further research to better understand the practice of rescue and rehabilitation as an effective conservation strategy for this species.

Abstract

Koala populations in southeast Queensland are under threat from many factors, particularly habitat loss, dog attack, vehicle trauma and disease. Animals not killed from these impacts are often rescued and taken into care for rehabilitation, and eventual release back to the wild if deemed to be healthy. This study investigated current rescue, rehabilitation and release data for koalas admitted to the four major wildlife hospitals in southeast Queensland (Australia Zoo Wildlife Hospital (AZWH), Currumbin Wildlife Sanctuary Hospital (CWH), Moggill Koala Hospital (MKH) and the Royal Society for the Prevention Against Cruelty to Animals Wildlife Hospital at Wacol (RSPCA)), and suggests aspects of the practice that may be changed to improve its contribution to the preservation of the species. It concluded that: (a) the main threats to koalas across southeast Queensland were related to urbanization (vehicle collisions, domestic animal attacks and the disease chlamydiosis); (b) case outcomes varied amongst hospitals, including time spent in care, euthanasia and release rates; and (c) the majority (66.5%) of rescued koalas were either euthanized or died in care with only 27% released back to the wild. The results from this study have important implications for further research into koala rescue and rehabilitation to gain a better understanding of its effectiveness as a conservation strategy.

Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia

Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long-term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat-induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long-term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range - with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot-spells, in driving species-climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species.

Incorporating Field Studies into Species Distribution and Climate Change Modelling: A Case Study of the Koomal Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus (Phalangeridae)

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus). The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1) the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2) areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3) gap crossing between patches (>400 m) was common behaviour; 4) koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5) where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these responses into the model.

Ongoing unraveling of a continental fauna: decline and extinction of Australian mammals since European settlement

The highly distinctive and mostly endemic Australian land mammal fauna has suffered an extraordinary rate of extinction (>10% of the 273 endemic terrestrial species) over the last ∼200 y: in comparison, only one native land mammal from continental North America became extinct since European settlement. A further 21% of Australian endemic land mammal species are now assessed to be threatened, indicating that the rate of loss (of one to two extinctions per decade) is likely to continue. Australia's marine mammals have fared better overall, but status assessment for them is seriously impeded by lack of information. Much of the loss of Australian land mammal fauna (particularly in the vast deserts and tropical savannas) has been in areas that are remote from human population centers and recognized as relatively unmodified at global scale. In contrast to general patterns of extinction on other continents where the main cause is habitat loss, hunting, and impacts of human development, particularly in areas of high and increasing human population pressures, the loss of Australian land mammals is most likely due primarily to predation by introduced species, particularly the feral cat, Felis catus, and European red fox, Vulpes vulpes, and changed fire regimes.

Extinction in Eden: identifying the role of climate change in the decline of the koala in south-eastern NSW

Context Reviews of climate change in Australia have identified that it is imposing additional stresses on biodiversity, which is already under threat from multiple human impacts. Aims The present study aimed to determine the contributions of several factors to the demise of the koala in the Eden region in south-eastern New South Wales and, in particular, to establish to what extent climate change may have exacerbated the decline. Methods The study built on several community-based koala surveys in the Eden region since 1986, verified through interviews with survey respondents. Historical records as far back as the late 19th century, wildlife databases and field-based surveys were used to independently validate the community survey data and form a reliable picture of changes in the Eden koala population. Analysis of the community survey data used a logistic model to assess the contribution of known threats to koalas, including habitat loss measured as changes in foliage projective cover, fire, increases in the human population and climate change in the form of changes in temperature and rainfall, to the regional decline of this species. Key results We found a marked, long-term shrinkage in the distribution of the koala across the Eden region. Our modelling demonstrated that a succession of multiple threats to koalas from land use (human population growth and habitat loss) and environmental change (temperature increase and drought) were significant contributors to this decline. Conclusions Climate change, particularly drought and rising temperatures, has been a hitherto hidden factor that has been a major driver of the decline of the koala in the Eden region. Implications Development of strategies to help fauna adapt to the changing climate is of paramount importance, particularly at a local scale.

Using multilevel models to identify drivers of landscape-genetic structure among management areas

Landscape genetics offers a powerful approach to understanding species' dispersal patterns. However, a central obstacle is to account for ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, while keeping research outcomes applicable to conservation management. We address this challenge by applying a novel multilevel regression approach to model landscape drivers of genetic structure at both the resolution of individuals and at a spatial resolution relevant to management (i.e. local government management areas: LGAs) for the koala (Phascolartos cinereus) in Australia. Our approach allows for the simultaneous incorporation of drivers of landscape-genetic relationships operating at multiple spatial resolutions. Using microsatellite data for 1106 koalas, we show that, at the individual resolution, foliage projective cover (FPC) facilitates high gene flow (i.e. low resistance) until it falls below approximately 30%. Out of six additional land-cover variables, only highways and freeways further explained genetic distance after accounting for the effect of FPC. At the LGA resolution, there was significant variation in isolation-by-resistance (IBR) relationships in terms of their slopes and intercepts. This was predominantly explained by the average resistance distance among LGAs, with a weaker effect of historical forest cover. Rates of recent landscape change did not further explain variation in IBR relationships among LGAs. By using a novel multilevel model, we disentangle the effect of landscape resistance on gene flow at the fine resolution (i.e. among individuals) from effects occurring at coarser resolutions (i.e. among LGAs). This has important implications for our ability to identify appropriate scale-dependent management actions.

Koala habitat use and population density: using field data to test the assumptions of ecological models

In principle, conservation planning relies on long-term data; in reality, conservation decisions are apt to be based upon limited data and short-range goals. For the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus), frequently reliance is made on the assumption that indirect signs can be used to indicate behavioural preferences, such as diet choice. We examined the relationship between the use of trees by koalas and the presence of scats beneath those trees. Tree use was associated with scat presence on 49% of occasions when koalas were radio-tracked in both central Queensland (n = 10 koalas) and south-east Queensland (n = 5 koalas), increasing to 77% of occasions when trees were rechecked the following day. Koala densities were correlated with scat abundance at sites with koala density between ~0.2 and 0.6 koalas per hectare. Our results confirm that scat searches are imprecise indicators of tree use by koalas, but demonstrate that these searches can be used, with caveats, to estimate koala population densities. We discuss how errors in estimating or applying predictive model parameters can bias estimates of occupancy and show how a failure to validate adequately the assumptions used in modelling and mapping can undermine the power of the products to direct rational conservation and management efforts.

Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern United States. The northerly distribution of Indiana bat summer maternity colonies relative to their winter distributions suggests that warmer climates may result in a shift in their summer distribution. Our objectives were to determine the climatic factors associated with Indiana bat maternity range and forecast changes in the amount and distribution of the range under future climates. We used Maxent to model the suitable climatic habitat of Indiana bats under current conditions and four future climate forecasts for 2021-30, 2031-40, 2041-50, and 2051-60. Average maximum temperature across the maternity season (May-August) was the most important variable in the model of current distribution of Indiana bat maternity colonies with suitability decreasing considerably above 28ºC. The areal extent of the summer maternity distribution of Indiana bats was forecasted to decline and be concentrated in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains; the western part of the current maternity range (Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio) was forecasted to become climatically unsuitable under most future climates. Our models suggest that high temperatures may be a factor in roost-site selection at the regional scale and in the future, may also be an important variable at the microhabitat scale. When behavioral changes fail to mitigate the effects of high temperature, range shifts are likely to occur. Thus, habitat management for Indiana bat maternity colonies in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains of the Southeast is critical as these areas will most likely serve as climatic refugia.

Drought-driven change in wildlife distribution and numbers: a case study of koalas in south west Queensland

Context Global climate change will lead to increased climate variability, including more frequent drought and heatwaves, in many areas of the world. This will affect the distribution and numbers of wildlife populations. In south-west Queensland, anecdotal reports indicated that a low density but significant koala population had been impacted by drought from 2001–2009, in accord with the predicted effects of climate change. Aims The study aimed to compare koala distribution and numbers in south-west Queensland in 2009 with pre-drought estimates from 1995–1997. Methods Community surveys and faecal pellet surveys were used to assess koala distribution. Population densities were estimated using the Faecal Standing Crop Method. From these densities, koala abundance in 10 habitat units was interpolated across the study region. Bootstrapping was used to estimate standard error. Climate data and land clearing were examined as possible explanations for changes in koala distribution and numbers between the two time periods. Key results Although there was only a minor change in distribution, there was an 80% decline in koala numbers across the study region, from a mean population of 59 000 in 1995 to 11 600 in 2009. Most summers between 2002 and 2007 were hotter and drier than average. Vegetation clearance was greatest in the eastern third of the study region, with the majority of clearing being in mixed eucalypt/acacia ecosystems and vegetation on elevated residuals. Conclusions Changes in the area of occupancy and numbers of koalas allowed us to conclude that drought significantly reduced koala populations and that they contracted to critical riparian habitats. Land clearing in the eastern part of the region may reduce the ability of koalas to move between habitats. Implications The increase in hotter and drier conditions expected with climate change will adversely affect koala populations in south-west Queensland and may be similar in other wildlife species in arid and semiarid regions. The effect of climate change on trailing edge populations may interact with habitat loss and fragmentation to increase extinction risks. Monitoring wildlife population dynamics at the margins of their geographic ranges will help to manage the impacts of climate change.