Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present

Effect of heat stress on the hypothalamic expression profile of water homeostasis-associated genes in low- and high-water efficient chicken lines

With climate change, selection for water efficiency and heat resilience are vitally important. We undertook this study to determine the effect of chronic cyclic heat stress (HS) on the hypothalamic expression profile of water homeostasis-associated markers in high (HWE)- and low (LWE)-water efficient chicken lines. HS significantly elevated core body temperatures of both lines. However, the amplitude was higher by 0.5-1°C in HWE compared to their LWE counterparts. HWE line drank significantly less water than LWE during both thermoneutral (TN) and HS conditions, and HS increased water intake in both lines with pronounced magnitude in LWE birds. HWE had better feed conversion ratio (FCR), water conversion ratio (WCR), and water to feed intake ratio. At the molecular level, the overall hypothalamic expression of aquaporins (AQP8 and AQP12), arginine vasopressin (AVP) and its related receptor AVP2R, angiotensinogen (AGT), angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT1), and calbindin 2 (CALB2) were significantly lower; however, CALB1 mRNA and AQP2 protein levels were higher in HWE compared to LWE line. Compared to TN conditions, HS exposure significantly increased mRNA abundances of AQPs (8, 12), AVPR1a, natriuretic peptide A (NPPA), angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE), CALB1 and 2, and transient receptor potential cation channel subfamily V member 1 and 4 (TRPV1 and TRPV4) as well as the protein levels of AQP2, however it decreased that of AQP4 gene expression. A significant line by environment interaction was observed in several hypothalamic genes. Heat stress significantly upregulated AQP2 and SCT at mRNA levels and AQP1 and AQP3 at both mRNA and protein levels, but it downregulated that of AQP4 protein only in LWE birds. In HWE broilers, however, HS upregulated the hypothalamic expression of renin (REN) and AVPR1b genes and AQP5 proteins, but it downregulated that of AQP3 protein. The hypothalamic expression of AQP (5, 7, 10, and 11) genes was increased by HS in both chicken lines. In summary, this is the first report showing improvement of growth performances in HWE birds. The hypothalamic expression of several genes was affected in a line- and/or environment-dependent manner, revealing potential molecular signatures for water efficiency and/or heat tolerance in chickens.

Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower

Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-known as Asia's water tower-has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress1,2. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003-2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA's mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP's TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020-2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress.

In-phase millennial-scale glacier changes in the tropics and North Atlantic regions during the Holocene

Based on new and published cosmic-ray exposure chronologies, we show that glacier extent in the tropical Andes and the north Atlantic regions (TANAR) varied in-phase on millennial timescales during the Holocene, distinct from other regions. Glaciers experienced an early Holocene maximum extent, followed by a strong mid-Holocene retreat and a re-advance in the late Holocene. We further explore the potential forcing of TANAR glacier variations using transient climate simulations. Since the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) evolution is poorly represented in these transient simulations, we develop a semi-empirical model to estimate the “AMOC-corrected” temperature and precipitation footprint at regional scales. We show that variations in the AMOC strength during the Holocene are consistent with the observed glacier changes. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain past AMOC behavior, as it may be an important driver of TANAR glacier variations during the Holocene, superimposed on other forcing mechanisms.

Glaciers showed a similar evolution in Greenland, Europe, the US and the tropical Andes during the Holocene. The authors propose the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Overturning Circulation as a key driver of this trend.

Ancient DNA reveals the lost domestication history of South American camelids in Northern Chile and across the Andes

The study of South American camelids and their domestication is a highly debated topic in zooarchaeology. Identifying the domestic species (alpaca and llama) in archaeological sites based solely on morphological data is challenging due to their similarity with respect to their wild ancestors. Using genetic methods also presents challenges due to the hybridization history of the domestic species, which are thought to have extensively hybridized following the Spanish conquest of South America that resulted in camelids slaughtered en masse. In this study, we generated mitochondrial genomes for 61 ancient South American camelids dated between 3,500 and 2,400 years before the present (Early Formative period) from two archaeological sites in Northern Chile (Tulán-54 and Tulán-85), as well as 66 modern camelid mitogenomes and 815 modern mitochondrial control region sequences from across South America. In addition, we performed osteometric analyses to differentiate big and small body size camelids. A comparative analysis of these data suggests that a substantial proportion of the ancient vicuña genetic variation has been lost since the Early Formative period, as it is not present in modern specimens. Moreover, we propose a domestication hypothesis that includes an ancient guanaco population that no longer exists. Finally, we find evidence that interbreeding practices were widespread during the domestication process by the early camelid herders in the Atacama during the Early Formative period and predating the Spanish conquest.

The Role of El Niño in Driving Drought Conditions over the Last 2000 Years in Thailand

Irregular climate events frequently occur in Southeast Asia due to the numerous climate patterns combining. Thailand sits at the confluence of these interactions, and consequently experiences major hydrological events, such as droughts. Proxy data, speleothem records, lake sediment sequences and tree ring chronologies were used to reconstruct paleo drought conditions. These trends were compared with modelled and historic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data to assess if the ENSO climate phenomena is causing droughts in Thailand. Drought periods were found to occur both during El Niño events and ENSO neutral conditions. This indicates droughts are not a product of one climate pattern, but likely the result of numerous patterns interacting. There is uncertainty regarding how climate patterns will evolve under climate change, but changes in amplitude and variability could potentially lead to more frequent and wider reaching hydrological disasters. It is vital that policies are implemented to cope with the resulting social and economic repercussions, including diversification of crops and reorganisation of water consumption behaviour in Thailand.

Demographic expansion of an African opportunistic carnivore during the Neolithic revolution

The diffusion of Neolithic technology together with the Holocene Climatic Optimum fostered the spread of human settlements and pastoral activities in North Africa, resulting in profound and enduring consequences for the dynamics of species, communities and landscapes. Here, we investigate the demographic history of the African wolf (Canis lupaster), a recently recognized canid species, to understand if demographic trends of this generalist and opportunistic carnivore reflect the increase in food availability that emerged after the arrival of the Neolithic economy in North Africa. We screened nuclear and mitochondrial DNA in samples collected throughout Algeria and Tunisia, and implemented coalescent approaches to estimate the variation of effective population sizes from present to ancestral time. We have found consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that the African wolf population experienced a meaningful expansion concurring with a period of rapid population expansion of domesticates linked to the advent of agricultural practices.

A pre-Inca pot from underwater ruins discovered in an Andean lake provides a sedimentary record of marked hydrological change

Pre-Hispanic artifacts and sacred architecture were recently discovered submerged in a large lake (Laguna Sibinacocha) in the Peruvian Andes. The underwater ruins indicate a dramatic shift in the region’s hydrology but the timing and triggers of this shift remain unknown. In a novel approach blending archaeology and paleoecology, we analyzed a sediment sequence from within one of the recovered artifacts, specifically a pot from the Late Intermediate Period (~1000–1400 CE). Radioisotopic dating of discrete sediment intervals sampled from the pot show a stratigraphically intact profile that preserves a history of change at this site. The pot’s basal sediment age places the timing of lake-level rise at ~1600 CE, which post-dates the end of the Inca Empire (1400–1532 CE) by several decades. The ubiquity of planktonic algae throughout the sediment profile suggests water levels remained high above the pot since its submergence. Paleoclimate data from the nearby Quelccaya ice core records indicate lake flooding followed a pronounced wet period beginning ~1520 CE. These data show the permanence of mean state changes in climate on the region’s hydrology, with clear implications for the study site (an important water resource for ~500,000 people) and other lakes in the rapidly warming Andes.

Strong link between large tropical volcanic eruptions and severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas revealed by tree-ring records

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas. In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Niña events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.

Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas

Among forest ecosystems, the alpine treeline ecotone can be considered to be a simplified model to study global ecology and climate change. Alpine treelines are expected to shift upwards in response to global warming given that tree recruitment and growth are assumed to be mainly limited by low temperatures. However, little is known whether precipitation and temperature interact to drive long-term Himalayan treeline dynamics. Tree growth is affected by spring rainfall in the central Himalayan treelines, being good locations for testing if, in addition to temperature, precipitation mediates treeline dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed spatiotemporal variations in treeline dynamics in 20 plots located at six alpine treeline sites, dominated by two tree species (birch, fir), and situated along an east-west precipitation gradient in the central Himalayas. Our reconstructions evidenced that treelines shifted upward in response to recent climate warming, but their shift rates were primarily mediated by spring precipitation. The rate of upward shift was higher in the wettest eastern Himalayas, suggesting that its ascent rate was facilitated by spring precipitation. The drying tendency in association with the recent warming trends observed in the central Himalayas, however, will likely hinder an upslope advancement of alpine treelines and promote downward treeline shifts if moisture availability crosses a critical minimum threshold. Our study highlights the complexity of plant responses to climate and the need to consider multiple climate factors when analyzing treeline dynamics.

Projections of the future disappearance of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Central Andes

We analyze the future state of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), the world’s largest tropical ice cap with a summit elevation of 5680 m a.s.l., which, in terms of its elevation range (~5300–5680 m a.s.l.), is representative of many low-elevation glacierized sites in the tropical Andes. CMIP5 model projections of air temperature (Ta) at QIC indicate a warming of about 2.4 °C and 5.4 °C (respectively) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21^st century, resulting in a pronounced increase in freezing level height (FLH). The impact of this warming on the QIC was quantified using equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) projections. The change in the ELA was quantified based on an empirical ELA–FLH relationship, and calibrated with observations of the highest annual snowline altitude (SLA) derived from LANDSAT data. Results show that from the mid-2050s onwards, the ELA will be located above the QIC summit in the RCP8.5 scenario. At that time, surface mass balance at QIC and most tropical glaciers at similar elevations will become increasingly negative, leading to their eventual complete disappearance. Our analysis further corroborates that elevation-dependent warming (EDW) contributes significantly to the enhanced warming over the QIC, and that EDW at Quelccaya depends on the rate of anthropogenic forcing.

Comparing genetic diversity and demographic history in co-distributed wild South American camelids

Vicuñas and guanacos are two species of wild South American camelids that are key ruminants in the ecosystems where they occur. Although closely related, these species feature differing ecologies and life history characters, which are expected to influence both their genetic diversity and population differentiation at different spatial scales. Here, using mitochondrial and microsatellite genetic markers, we show that vicuña display lower genetic diversity within populations than guanaco but exhibit more structure across their Peruvian range, which may reflect a combination of natural genetic differentiation linked to geographic isolation and recent anthropogenic population declines. Coalescent-based demographic analyses indicate that both species have passed through a strong bottleneck, reducing their effective population sizes from over 20,000 to less than 1000 individuals. For vicuña, this bottleneck is inferred to have taken place ~3300 years ago, but to have occurred more recently for guanaco at ~2000 years ago. These inferred dates are considerably later than the onset of domestication (when the alpaca was domesticated from the vicuña while the llama was domesticated from the guanaco), coinciding instead with a major human population expansion following the mid-Holocene cold period. As importantly, they imply earlier declines than the well-documented Spanish conquest, where major mass mortality events were recorded for Andean human and camelid populations. We argue that underlying species' differences and recent demographic perturbations have influenced genetic diversity in modern vicuña and guanaco populations, and these processes should be carefully evaluated in the development and implementation of management strategies for these important genetic resources.

Intraspecific and interspecific variation in thermotolerance and photoacclimation in Symbiodinium dinoflagellates

Light and temperature are major drivers in the ecology and biogeography of symbiotic dinoflagellates living in corals and other cnidarians. We examined variations in physiology among 11 strains comprising five species of clade A Symbiodinium We grew cultures at 26°C (control) and 32°C (high temperature) over a duration of 18 days while measuring growth and photochemical efficiency (Fv /Fm ). Responses to thermal stress ranged from susceptible to tolerant across species and strains. Most strains exhibited a decrease in cell densities and Fv /Fm when grown at 32°C. Tolerance to high temperature (T32) was calculated for all strains, ranging from 0 (unable to survive at high temperature) to 1 (able survive at high temperature). There was substantial variation in thermotolerance across species and among strains. One strain had a T32 close to 1, indicating that growth was not reduced at 32°C for only this one strain. To evaluate the combined effect of temperature and light on physiological stress, we selected three strains with different levels of thermotolerance (tolerant, intermediate and susceptible) and grew them under five different light intensities (65, 80, 100, 240 and 443 µmol quanta m-2 s-1) at 26 and 32°C. High irradiance exacerbated the effect of high temperature, particularly in strains from thermally sensitive species. This work further supports the recognition that broad physiological differences exist not only among species within Symbiodinium clades, but also among strains within species demonstrating that thermotolerance varies widely between species and among strains within species.

Solar Output Controls Periodicity in Lake Productivity and Wetness at Southernmost South America

Cyclic changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) during the Holocene are known to affect global climatic conditions and cause cyclic climatic oscillations, e.g., Bond events and related changes of environmental conditions. However, the processes how changes in TSI affect climate and environment of the Southern Hemisphere, especially in southernmost South America, a key area for the global climate, are still poorly resolved. Here we show that highly sensitive proxies for aquatic productivity derived from sediments of a lake near the Chilean South Atlantic coast (53 °S) strongly match the cyclic changes in TSI throughout the Holocene. Intra-lake productivity variations show a periodicity of ~200-240 years coherent with the time series of TSI-controlled cosmogenic nuclide ¹⁰Be production. In addition TSI dependent periodicity of Bond events (~1500 years) appear to control wetness at the LH site indicated by mineral matter erosion from the catchment to the lake assumingly through shifts of the position of the southern westerly wind belt. Thus, both intra-lake productivity and wetness at the southernmost South America are directly or indirectly controlled by TSI.

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming.

Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100

Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km² yr⁻¹ since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km² delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Quantifying the Intra-Regional Precipitation Variability in Northwestern China over the Past 1,400 Years

There has been a surge of paleo-climatic/environmental studies of Northwestern China (NW China), a region characterized by a diverse assortment of hydro-climatic systems. Their common approach, however, focuses on "deducing regional resemblance" rather than "exploring regional variance." To date, efforts to produce a quantitative assessment of long-term intra-regional precipitation variability (IRPV) in NW China has been inadequate. In the present study, we base on historical flood/drought records to compile a decadal IRPV index for NW China spanned AD580-1979 and to find its major determinants via wavelet analysis. Results show that our IRPV index captures the footprints of internal hydro-climatic disparity in NW China. In addition, we find distinct ~120-200 year periodicities in the IRPV index over the Little Ice Age, which are attributable to the change of hydro-climatic influence of ocean-atmospheric modes during the period. Also, we offer statistical evidence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (Indo-Pacific warm pool sea surface temperature and China-wide land surface temperature) as the prominent multi-decadal to centennial (centennial to multi-centennial) determinant of the IRPV in NW China. The present study contributes to the quantitative validation of the long-term IRPV in NW China and its driving forces, covering the periods with and without instrumental records. It may help to comprehend the complex hydro-climatic regimes in the region.

Widespread pollution of the South American atmosphere predates the industrial revolution by 240 y

In the Southern Hemisphere, evidence for preindustrial atmospheric pollution is restricted to a few geological archives of low temporal resolution that record trace element deposition originating from past mining and metallurgical operations in South America. Therefore, the timing and the spatial impact of these activities on the past atmosphere remain poorly constrained. Here we present an annually resolved ice core record (A.D. 793-1989) from the high-altitude drilling site of Quelccaya (Peru) that archives preindustrial and industrial variations in trace elements. During the precolonial period (i.e., pre-A.D. 1532), the deposition of trace elements was mainly dominated by the fallout of aeolian dust and of ash from occasional volcanic eruptions, indicating that metallurgic production during the Inca Empire (A.D. 1438-1532) had a negligible impact on the South American atmosphere. In contrast, a widespread anthropogenic signal is evident after around A.D. 1540, which corresponds with the beginning of colonial mining and metallurgy in Peru and Bolivia, ∼240 y before the Industrial Revolution. This shift was due to a major technological transition for silver extraction in South America (A.D. 1572), from lead-based smelting to mercury amalgamation, which precipitated a massive increase in mining activities. However, deposition of toxic trace metals during the Colonial era was still several factors lower than 20th century pollution that was unprecedented over the entirety of human history.

Assessing phenological change and climatic control of alpine grasslands in the Tibetan Plateau with MODIS time series

The Tibetan Plateau, a unique cold and dry region recognized as the Earth's third pole, is primarily composed of alpine grasslands (>60 %). While a warming climate in the plateau is being recorded, phenology of alpine grasslands and its climatic dependencies are less investigated. This study tests the feasibility of the frequently observed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series (500 m, 8 days) in examining alpine phenology in the plateau. A set of phenological metrics are extracted from the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) series in each year, 2000-2010. A nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is performed to find the trends of these phenological metrics, which are then linked to monthly climatic records in the growing season. Opposite trends of phenological change are observed between the east and west of the plateau, with delayed start of season, peak date, and end of season in the west and advanced phenophases in the east. The correlation analysis indicates that precipitation, with a decreasing trend in the west and increasing trend in the east, may serve as the primary driver of the onset and peak dates of greenness. Temperature increases all over the plateau. While the delay of the end of season in the west could be related to higher late-season temperature, its advance in the east needs further investigation in this unique cold region. This study demonstrates that frequent satellite observations are able to extract phenological features of alpine grasslands and to provide spatiotemporally detailed base information for long-term monitoring on the plateau under rapid climate change.

A 1400-year terrigenous dust record on a coral island in South China Sea

We present analyses of a lacustrine sediment core (DY6) on Dongdao Island, which provides high-resolution paleoclimate records for the South China Sea (SCS). Results of element analyses indicate that the concentrations of Ti and Al in DY6 are much higher than the background on the island. Morphological characteristics of acidic insoluble particles are similar to aeolian in East China. Sr and Nd isotope compositions in these particles are consistent with those in Asian aeolian dust. We inferred that dust in DY6 may have been transported by East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) from inland Asia. The continuous dust records for the past 1400 years in North SCS were presented based on the measured Ti flux, which revealed an opposite trend to the variations in the EAWM for the past 50 years. A comparison of wind fields between cold and warm years shows that north surface wind in southeast China was stronger in cold years. However, 850 hPa wind vector along the east coast of China, the key level of wind for long-distance dust transmission, weakened in cold years. We conclude that differences in the EAWM records can be attributed to the 850 hPa wind pattern in different areas.

Natural and anthropogenic variations in atmospheric mercury deposition during the Holocene near Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic metal that is transported globally through the atmosphere. The emission of Hg from mineral reservoirs and subsequent recycling in surface reservoirs (i.e., soil/biomass, ocean, and atmosphere) are fundamental to the modern global Hg cycle, yet past emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources are not fully constrained. We use a sediment core from Yanacocha, a headwater lake in southeastern Peru, to study the anthropogenic and natural controls on atmospheric Hg deposition during the Holocene. From 12.3 to 3.5 ka, Hg fluxes in the record are relatively constant (mean ± 1σ: 1.4 ± 0.6 μg m^-2 a^-1, n = 189). Past Hg deposition does not correlate with changes in regional temperature and precipitation, inferred from nearby paleoclimate records, or with most large volcanic events that occurred regionally, in the Andean Central Volcanic Zone (~300-400 km from Yanacocha), and globally. In B.C. 1450 (3.4 ka), Hg fluxes abruptly increased and reached the Holocene-maximum flux (6.7 μg m^-2 a^-1) in B.C. 1200, concurrent with a ~100-year peak in Fe and chalcophile metals (As, Ag, Tl) and the presence of framboidal pyrite. Continuously elevated Hg fluxes from B.C. 1200-500 suggest a protracted mining-dust source near Yanacocha that is identical in timing to documented pre-Incan cinnabar mining in central Peru. During Incan and Colonial time (A.D. 1450-1650), Hg deposition remains elevated relative to background levels but lower relative to other Hg records from sediment cores in central Peru, indicating a limited spatial extent of preindustrial Hg emissions. Hg fluxes from A.D. 1980 to 2011 (4.0 ± 1.0 μg m^-2 a^-1, n = 5) are 3.0 ± 1.5 times greater than pre-anthropogenic fluxes and are similar to modern fluxes documented in remote lakes around the world.

Oxygen isotopes in tree rings record variation in precipitation δ18O and amount effects in the south of Mexico

[1] Natural archives of oxygen isotopes in precipitation may be used to study changes in the hydrological cycle in the tropics, but their interpretation is not straightforward. We studied to which degree tree rings of Mimosa acantholoba from southern Mexico record variation in isotopic composition of precipitation and which climatic processes influence oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ¹⁸O_tr). Interannual variation in δ¹⁸O_tr was highly synchronized between trees and closely related to isotopic composition of rain measured at San Salvador, 710 km to the southwest. Correlations with δ¹³C, growth, or local climate variables (temperature, cloud cover, vapor pressure deficit (VPD)) were relatively low, indicating weak plant physiological influences. Interannual variation in δ¹⁸O_tr correlated negatively with local rainfall amount and intensity. Correlations with the amount of precipitation extended along a 1000 km long stretch of the Pacific Central American coast, probably as a result of organized storm systems uniformly affecting rainfall in the region and its isotope signal; episodic heavy precipitation events, of which some are related to cyclones, deposit strongly ¹⁸O-depleted rain in the region and seem to have affected the δ¹⁸O_tr signal. Large-scale controls on the isotope signature include variation in sea surface temperatures of tropical north Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. In conclusion, we show that δ¹⁸O_tr of M. acantholoba can be used as a proxy for source water δ¹⁸O and that interannual variation in δ¹⁸O_prec is caused by a regional amount effect. This contrasts with δ¹⁸O signatures at continental sites where cumulative rainout processes dominate and thus provide a proxy for precipitation integrated over a much larger scale. Our results confirm that processes influencing climate-isotope relations differ between sites located, e.g., in the western Amazon versus coastal Mexico, and that tree ring isotope records can help in disentangling the processes influencing precipitation δ¹⁸O.

Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years

Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.

Multi-proxy temperature reconstruction from the West Qinling Mountains, China for the past 500 years

A total of 290 tree-ring samples, collected from six sites in the West Qinling Mountains of China, were used to develop six new standard tree-ring chronologies. In addition, 73 proxy records were assembled in collaboration with Chinese and international scholars, from 27 publically available proxy records and 40 tree-ring chronologies that are not available in public datasets. These records were used to reconstruct annual mean temperature variability in the West Qinling Mountains over the past 500 years (AD 1500–1995), using a modified point-by-point regression (hybrid PPR) method. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PPR method successfully integrates the temperature signals from different types of proxies, and that the method preserves a high degree of low-frequency variability. The reconstruction shows greater temperature variability in the West Qinling Mountains than has been found in previous studies. Our temperature reconstruction for this region shows: 1) five distinct cold periods, at approximately AD 1520–1535, AD 1560–1575, AD 1610–1620, AD 1850–1875 and AD 1965–1985, and four warm periods, at approximately AD 1645–1660, AD 1705–1725, AD 1785–1795 and AD 1920–1945; 2) that in this region, the 20^th century was not the warmest period of the past 500 years; and 3) that a dominant and persistent oscillation of ca. 64 years is significantly identified in the 1640–1790 period.

Oxygen isotopes in tree rings are a good proxy for Amazon precipitation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability

We present a unique proxy for the reconstruction of variation in precipitation over the Amazon: oxygen isotope ratios in annual rings in tropical cedar (Cedrela odorata). A century-long record from northern Bolivia shows that tree rings preserve the signal of oxygen isotopes in precipitation during the wet season, with weaker influences of temperature and vapor pressure. Tree ring δ(18)O correlates strongly with δ(18)O in precipitation from distant stations in the center and west of the basin, and with Andean ice core δ(18)O showing that the signal is coherent over large areas. The signal correlates most strongly with basin-wide precipitation and Amazon river discharge. We attribute the strength of this (negative) correlation mainly to the cumulative rainout processes of oxygen isotopes (Rayleigh distillation) in air parcels during westward transport across the basin. We further find a clear signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the record, with strong ENSO influences over recent decades, but weaker influence from 1925 to 1975 indicating decadal scale variation in the controls on the hydrological cycle. The record exhibits a significant increase in δ(18)O over the 20th century consistent with increases in Andean δ(18)O ice core and lake records, which we tentatively attribute to increased water vapor transport into the basin. Taking these data together, our record reveals a fresh path to diagnose and improve our understanding of variation and trends of the hydrological cycle of the world's largest river catchment.

Cape buffalo mitogenomics reveals a Holocene shift in the African human-megafauna dynamics

Africa is unique among the continents in having maintained an extraordinarily diverse and prolific megafauna spanning the Pleistocene-Holocene epochs. Little is known about the historical dynamics of this community and even less about the reasons for its unique persistence to modern times. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes from 43 Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) to infer the demographic history of this large mammal. A combination of Bayesian skyline plots, simulations and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) were used to distinguish population size dynamics from the confounding effect of population structure and identify the most probable demographic scenario. Our analyses revealed a late Pleistocene expansion phase concurrent with the human expansion between 80 000 and 10 000 years ago, refuting an adverse ecological effect of Palaeolithic humans on this quarry species, but also showed that the buffalo subsequently declined during the Holocene. The distinct two-phased dynamic inferred here suggests that a major ecological transition occurred in the Holocene. The timing of this transition coincides with the onset of drier conditions throughout tropical Africa following the Holocene Optimum (∼9000-5000 years ago), but also with the explosive growth in human population size associated with the transition from the Palaeolithic to the Neolithic cultural stage. We evaluate each of these possible causal factors and their potential impact on the African megafauna, providing the first systematic assessment of megafauna dynamics on the only continent where large mammals remain abundant.

Converging currents in climate-relevant conservation: water, infrastructure, and institutions

Ecologists and economists have long talked past each other, but climate change presents similar threats to both groups. Water may serve as the best means of finding a common cause and building a new vision of ecological and economic sustainability, especially in the developing world.

Little change in the fir tree-line position on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau after 200 years of warming

• As one of the world's highest natural tree lines, the Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) tree line on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is expected to vary as a function of climate warming. However, the spatial patterns and dynamics of the Smith fir tree line are not yet well understood. • Three rectangular plots (30 m × 150 m) were established in the natural alpine tree-line ecotone on two north-facing (Plot N1, 4390 m asl; Plot N2, 4380 m asl) and one east-facing (Plot E1, 4360 m asl) slope. Dendroecological methods were used to monitor the tree-line patterns and dynamics over a 50-yr interval. • The three study plots showed a similar pattern of regeneration dynamics, characterized by increased recruitment after the 1950s and an abrupt increase in the 1970s. Smith fir recruitment was significantly positively correlated with both summer and winter temperatures. However, Smith fir tree lines do not show a significant upward movement, despite warming on the Tibetan Plateau. • The warming in the past 200 yr is already having a significant impact on the population density of the trees, but not on the position of the Smith fir tree line.

Evidence of a high-Andean, mid-Holocene plant community: An ancient DNA analysis of glacially preserved remains

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Around the world, tropical glaciers and ice caps are retreating at unprecedented rates because of climate change. In at least one location, along the margin of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in southeastern Peru, ancient plant remains have been continually uncovered since 2002. We used genetic analysis to identify plants that existed at these sites during the mid-Holocene. •

METHODS

We examined remains between 4576 and 5222 yr old, using PCR amplification, cloning, and sequencing of a fragment of the chloroplast trnL intron. We then matched these sequences to sequences in GenBank. •

KEY RESULTS

We found evidence of at least five taxa characteristic of wetlands, which occur primarily at lower elevations in the region today. •

CONCLUSIONS

A diverse community most likely existed at these locations the last time they were ice-free and thus has the potential to reestablish with time. This is the first genetic analysis of vegetation uncovered by receding glacial ice, and it may become one of many as ancient plant materials are newly uncovered in a changing climate.

Climate change: the evidence and our options

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.

Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated

The dramatic loss of Kilimanjaro's ice cover has attracted global attention. The three remaining ice fields on the plateau and the slopes are both shrinking laterally and rapidly thinning. Summit ice cover (areal extent) decreased approximately 1% per year from 1912 to 1953 and approximately 2.5% per year from 1989 to 2007. Of the ice cover present in 1912, 85% has disappeared and 26% of that present in 2000 is now gone. From 2000 to 2007 thinning (surface lowering) at the summits of the Northern and Southern Ice Fields was approximately 1.9 and approximately 5.1 m, respectively, which based on ice thicknesses at the summit drill sites in 2000 represents a thinning of approximately 3.6% and approximately 24%, respectively. Furtwängler Glacier thinned approximately 50% at the drill site between 2000 and 2009. Ice volume changes (2000-2007) calculated for two ice fields reveal that nearly equivalent ice volumes are now being lost to thinning and lateral shrinking. The relative importance of different climatological drivers remains an area of active inquiry, yet several points bear consideration. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is contemporaneous with widespread glacier retreat in mid to low latitudes. The Northern Ice Field has persisted at least 11,700 years and survived a widespread drought approximately 4,200 years ago that lasted approximately 300 years. We present additional evidence that the combination of processes driving the current shrinking and thinning of Kilimanjaro's ice fields is unique within an 11,700-year perspective. If current climatological conditions are sustained, the ice fields atop Kilimanjaro and on its flanks will likely disappear within several decades.

Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present

Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.