The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability

Exploring the driving mechanism path of ecosystem service relationships based on the social-ecological system framework

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies is crucial for sustainable ecosystem management. This study integrates the Social-Ecological System Framework (SESF) with path analysis to explore the relationships among crop production (CP), water retention (WR), and soil conservation (SC) in Shanxi Province, China. We identified six key driving factors-annual mean temperature (Tem), total annual precipitation (Pre), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), per capita GDP (GDP), agricultural, forestry, and water fiscal expenditure (Exp), and urban and rural per capita disposable income (Inc)-to analyze their direct and indirect influences on ES interactions over the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Results show that CP and WR exhibit a persistent trade-off, while CP and SC maintain a synergistic relationship. WR and SC display a trade-off in static time points but shift towards synergy in long-term changes. Path analysis confirms that natural factors (Tem, Pre, and NPP) dominate short-term ES dynamics, whereas socio-economic variables (GDP, Exp, and Inc) play a greater role in long-term ES changes. Mediation analysis reveals that NPP partially mediates climate effects on ESs, while Inc mediates the influence of GDP on ESs. However, Exp does not significantly affect ESs through Inc, likely due to policy implementation delays and regional economic priorities. Findings suggest that spatially targeted policies should be implemented to optimize ES relationships. Long-term ES governance should integrate ecological restoration strategies with socio-economic incentives to enhance ES sustainability.

Damming induces convergence of riverscapes in the Nile, Yangtze, and Amazon Basin: The importance of localized watershed management

Understanding changes in riverscapes and their influencing factors is crucial for effective biological conservation. Although the impact of dams on riverscape changes has been investigated, comparative research is limited. This study first conducted a comparative analysis of riverscape configuration patterns from different perspectives using the Landscape Fragmentation Index of Configuration among three major global dammed rivers: the Aswan High Dam on the Nile River, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, and the Jirau and Santo Antônio dams in the Amazon Basin. Subsequently, through the Analysis of Similarity of various indices, we identified a significant trend toward resemblance in the configurations across the three dammed rivers. Further, we found that this resemblance progressed in a trend similar to that of riverscape composition, with built-up and water land-use type being the primary factor explaining the similarity across these regions. These findings provide valuable insights for localized management measures in dam-affected areas.

Decline in global biodiversity intactness over the past two decades

Knowledge of the dynamics of biodiversity intactness and its spatial differentiation over different geographic regions of the world is crucial for the improved design of effective biodiversity conservation strategies. However, comprehensive investigations of the multiple indicators of biodiversity intactness across several spatial scales are lacking. The current study used an annual time series (2000-2020) of the biodiversity intactness index (BII) to investigate the mean magnitude, temporal trajectory, and relative changes in biodiversity intactness at the national, regional, and global levels. Global mean magnitude of BII was estimated to be 76 ± 16 % between 2000 and 2020, accompanied by the highly diverse BII variations across geographic regions. There has been a gradual decrease in biodiversity intactness over the past 20 years, with the global mean BII trend of -0.3 ± 1.9 %/decade. Africa and Europe have the largest decrease and increase in BII of -1.4 ± 2.2 %/decade and 1.0 ± 1.7 %/decade, respectively. The countries with the top ten BII parameters are mainly located in Africa and Asia, whereas the opposite is true in Europe. The top 10 countries with positive BII trends were mainly in Europe (70 %), followed by Africa (80 %) and Asia (20 %). There was a negative difference between the global mean BII for 2011-2020 and 2000-2010, as evidenced by the relative change in BII of 4.1 %. This study provides an elaborate interpretation of the current status and possible future paths of abundance-based biodiversity intactness at multiple spatial scales, which is beneficial in elucidating biodiversity intactness dynamics and potentially supports biodiversity conservation.

Land system changes of terrestrial tipping elements on Earth under global climate pledges: 2000-2100

Tipping elements on Earth are components that undergo rapid and irreversible changes when climate change reaches a tipping point. They are highly sensitive to climate variations and serve as early warning signs of global change. Human activities, including global climate pledges, significantly influence the climate and the state of tipping elements. Land changes serve as the external and intuitive response of tipping elements to climate change, making it essential to identify shifts in the land system. We produced a 1-km land system dataset for terrestrial tipping elements on Earth for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2100 under global climate pledges by integrating the GCAM with a modified version of CLUMondo. Our dataset includes 30 thematic categories, combining three density types and ten land cover types. The dataset illustrates potential land system changes under global climate pledges, contrasting with common SSP and RCP scenarios. Our simulations demonstrate high accuracy, offering valuable insights into tipping elements and the assessment of the impacts of global climate pledges on Earth.

Comprehensive dataset from high resolution UAV land cover mapping of diverse natural environments in Serbia

This study highlights the vital role of high-resolution (HR), open-source land cover maps for food security, land use planning, and environmental protection. The scarcity of freely available HR datasets underscores the importance of multi-spectral HR aerial images. We used unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to capture images for a centimeter-level orthomosaics, facilitating advanced remote sensing and spatial analysis. Our method compares the efficacy and accuracy of object-based image analysis (OBIA) combined with random forest and convolutional neural networks (CNN) for land cover classification. We produced detailed land cover maps for 27 varied landscapes across Serbia, identifying nine unique land cover classes and assessing human impact on natural habitats. This resulted in a valuable dataset of HR multi-spectral orthomosaics across ecological zones, alongside land cover classification with extensive metrics and training data for each site. This dataset is a valuable resource for researchers working on habitats mapping and assessment for biodiversity monitoring studies on one side and researchers working on novel machine learning methods for land cover classification.

Nonnegligible cascading impacts of global urban expansion on net primary productivity

Accelerated global urban expansion not only directly occupies surrounding ecosystems, but also induces cascading losses of natural vegetation elsewhere through cropland displacement. Yet, how such effects alter the net primary productivity (NPP) worldwide remains unclear. Here, we quantified the direct and cascading impacts of global urban expansion on terrestrial NPP from 1992 to 2020 and projected the impacts under the shared socioeconomic pathways framework by 2100. We found that global urban expansion caused a cascading loss of 29.2 to 63.9 Tg C/year of terrestrial NPP in the historical period (1992-2020), accounting for 13-29% of the total direct NPP loss. Instead, our projections indicate that during 2020-2100, mainly due to the increased relocation of displaced croplands to low-productive ecosystems, the cascading impacts gradually change from negative to positive, leading to a net NPP increase. Such an increase may offset up to 7% of the total direct NPP loss, better balancing crop compensation with NPP maintenance. Our findings highlight the unexpected large cascading impacts of urban expansion on the carbon cycle and stress the importance of regulating land transitions to curtail land-use emissions.

Soil Microbial Responses to Varying Environmental Conditions in a Copper Belt Region of Africa: Phytoremediation Perspectives

The mining industry in the copper belt region of Africa was initiated in the early 1900s, with copper being the main ore extracted to date. The main objectives of the present study are (1) to characterize the microbial structure, abundance, and diversity in different ecological conditions in the cupriferous city of Lubumbashi and (2) to assess the metal phytoextraction potential of Leucaena leucocephala, a main plant species used in tailing. Four ecologically different sites were selected. They include a residential area (site 1), an agricultural dry field (site 2), and an agricultural wetland (site 3), all located within the vicinity of a copper/cobalt mining plant. A remediated tailing was also added as a highly stressed area (site 4). As expected, the highest levels of copper and cobalt among the sites studied were found at the remediated tailing, with 9447 mg/kg and 2228 mg/kg for copper and cobalt, respectively. The levels of these metals at the other sites were low, varying from 41 mg/kg to 579 mg/kg for copper and from 4 mg/kg to 110 mg/kg for cobalt. Interestingly, this study revealed that the Leucaena leucocephala grown on the remediated sites is a copper/cobalt excluder species as it accumulates soil bioavailable metals from the rhizosphere in its roots. Amplicon sequence analysis showed significant differences among the sites in bacterial and fungal composition and abundance. Site-specific genera were identified. Acidibacter was the most abundant bacterial genus in the residential and remediated tailing sites, with 11.1% and 4.4%, respectively. Bacillus was predominant in both dry (19.3%) and wet agricultural lands (4.8%). For fungi, Fusarium exhibited the highest proportion of the fungal genera at all the sites, with a relative abundance ranging from 15.6% to 20.3%. Shannon diversity entropy indices were high and similar, ranging from 8.3 to 9 for bacteria and 7.0 and 7.4 for fungi. Β diversity analysis confirmed the closeness of the four sites regardless of the environmental conditions. This lack of differences in the microbial community diversity and structures among the sites suggests microbial resilience and physiological adaptations.

Regional food consumption in Italy, a life cycle analysis

Urbanization and globalization have led to an increasing concern and focus on the sustainability of the food sector, particularly in discussing the composition of consumers' diets. This study examines Italian consumption habits, categorizing them into four macro-geographical areas (North-West, North-East, Center, South, and Islands), utilizing public data obtained from surveys including 3323 individuals, and assesses their environmental impacts through the application of the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The findings unveil distinct dietary patterns across Italian macro-regions, indicative of cultural disparities, and present avenues for promoting environmentally sustainable dietary choices. The study identifies meat consumption as the primary environmental concern across all macro-regions, with fish emerging as a secondary contributor to particulate matter formation. Pork and poultry exhibit notable impacts within toxicity-related categories. Additionally, the research underscores challenges in data collection, notably the absence of a site-specific Italian database, and underscores the necessity for more recent consumption data to accurately capture contemporary Italian dietary habits. Finally, the study demonstrates that addressing the issue from a macro-regional perspective allows for more targeted and dedicated cultural interventions.

The evolution of habitat quality and its response to land use change in the coastal China, 1985-2020

The coastal region of China is a typical area characterized by a developed economy, yet it faces prominent resource and environmental issues, and it is of great significance to quantitatively assess the ecological effects resulting from rapid urbanization and industrialization. Based on the land use data from 1985 to 2020, and the InVEST modeling and relevant spatial data sources, the paper analyzed the spatial and temporal changes in land use cover and habitat quality in the coastal China over the past 30 years. The results show that: 1) land use cover in the coastal China has changed significantly during the study period, with the area of cultivated land continuing to decrease and construction land expanding; 2) the trend of habitat quality degradation in was obvious, with the area of low-value habitat quality continuing to increase. Spatially, they were mainly located in the three major urban agglomerations undergoing rapid industrialization and urbanization; 3) The average degradation of habitats increased significantly between 1990 and 2000 and 2010-2020. The rate of change in areas with different degradation levels from 1990 to 2000 was higher than in other periods. The low-value areas of habitat degradation are mainly located in hilly and mountainous regions. 4) The transfer of habitat grades was generally characterized by a shift from high grade to low grade. This trend of conversion was due to the large-scale occupation of cultivated land by construction land and the long-term encroachment of ecological land by cultivated land. For future development, it is recommended to improve the land use regulation system based on the principles of sustainable development, with a particular focus on habitat protection. Additionally, efforts should be made to strengthen the development of ecological agriculture, carry out ecological protection and restoration, and improve the mechanisms for coordinating land and sea management.

Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests

Approximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 were attributable to agricultural expansion, making food production the leading direct driver of deforestation. While previous studies have focused on the interaction between human and environmental systems, limited research has explored deforestation from a food system perspective. This study analyzes the drivers of deforestation in 40 tropical and subtropical countries (2004-2021) through the lenses of consumption/demand, production/supply and trade/distribution using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Our models explained a substantial portion of deforestation variability globally (R2 = 0.74) and in Asia (R2 = 0.81) and Latin America (R2 = 0.73). The results indicate that trade- and demand-side dynamics, specifically foreign direct investments and urban population growth, play key roles in influencing deforestation trends at these scales, suggesting that food system-based interventions could be effective in mitigating deforestation. Conversely, the model for Africa showed weaker explanatory power (R2 = 0.30), suggesting that factors beyond the food system may play a larger role in this region. Our findings highlight the importance of targeting trade- and demand-side dynamics to reduce deforestation and how interventions within the food system could synergistically contribute to achieving sustainable development goals, such as climate action, life on land and zero hunger.

Multi-level determinants of land use land cover change in Tigray, Ethiopia: A mixed-effects approach using socioeconomic panel and satellite data

This study examined land use land cover change and its determinants in Tigray, Ethiopia and its livelihood zones. We used socioeconomic panel, and satellite data, and applied a mixed-effects model to analyse the factors influencing land allocation among different uses, and transition matrix to analyse land cover dynamics. The results revealed that; land use choices were influenced by plot level factors (such as plot elevation, distance, soil type and quality, and land tenure), household characteristics (such as education, dependency ratio, plot size and number owned, income, livestock and asset, perception of climate change, and access to market and main road), and community level factors (precipitation, product price, population density and livelihood zone variations). Transition matrix analysis showed that between 1986 and 2016, 12.8% of forest was converted to bare land, 6.26% bare land was converted to pasture, and 5.84% of cropland was converted to forest. However, net deforestation occurred in most of the livelihood zones. Therefore, local communities faced environmental and socio-economic challenges from capital constraints induced land fallowing, land fragmentation, and unmanaged land cover change. The study recommended sustainable land use planning and management, market linkages, improved access to roads, forestry subsidies, land tenure security, and land consolidation programs.

Change of spermatophyte family diversity in distribution patterns with climate change in China

The global climate is undergoing extraordinary changes, profoundly influencing a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the distribution patterns and predicting the future of plant diversity is crucial for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. However, current studies on predictive geographic patterns of plant diversity often fail to separate the effects of global climate change from other influencing factors. In this study, we developed a spatial simulation model of spermatophyte family diversity (SSMSFD) based on data collected from 200 nature reserves covering approximately 1,500,000 km2, where direct anthropogenic disturbances to plant diversity and the surrounding environment are absent. We predicted the spermatophyte family diversity for all provinces in China in 2020, 2040, and 2080, considering the impacts of global climate change. On average, China currently exhibits 118 plant families per 25 km2, with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. When considering only the effects of global climate change, excluding direct anthropogenic disturbances, our results indicate that under the Shared Socioeconomic Path Scenarios (SSPs) 245 and 585, spermatophyte family diversity is projected to slowly increase in most Chinese provinces from 2021 to 2080. Notably, the increase is more pronounced under SSPs585 compared to SSPs245. Global climate change has a positive effect on plant diversity, in contrast to the negative impact of anthropogenic disturbances that often lead to declines in plant diversity. This research highlights the contrasting outcomes of future plant diversity under the sole influence of global climate change and the significant negative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on diversity.

Land-use intensification dominates China's land provisioning services: From the perspective of land system science

A pressing challenge to global sustainability is meeting the escalating needs of a growing population while safeguarding land resources from degradation. In recent decades, China's rapid growth, expanding population, urban sprawl, and diminishing high-quality farmland have presented a compelling case suitable for exploring solutions and challenges related to this critical issue. Therefore, there is an urgent need for comprehensive and detailed information regarding land systems. Here, we developed the first fine-scale dataset of the China Land System at a spatial resolution of 1 km, covering the period from 2000 to 2015. By leveraging this comprehensive land information, we identified five primary types of land systems and their respective subsystems, thereby delineating distinct patterns of human-environmental interaction. Land system dynamics followed diverse developmental trajectories characterized by incremental shifts toward more functionally centralized systems. Land use intensification played a significant role in increasing the population capacity and food production in China, contributing nearly 93.94% and 84.99%, respectively. In contrast, land cover changes accounted for only 4.69% and 11.43%, respectively. These findings underscore the tendency of previous studies to overestimate the impact of land cover change and underestimate the influence of land use intensification in meeting the growing demands of land-based production. This study emphasizes the importance of transcending traditional land cover-based approaches and integrating land systems into land representation and global land change scenario simulations to promote sustainability.

Glucocorticoids and land cover: a largescale comparative approach to assess a physiological biomarker for avian conservation

As humans alter landscapes worldwide, land and wildlife managers need reliable tools to assess and monitor responses of wildlife populations. Glucocorticoid (GC) hormone levels are one common physiological metric used to quantify how populations are coping in the context of their environments. Understanding whether GC levels can reflect broad landscape characteristics, using data that are free and commonplace to diverse stakeholders, is an important step towards physiological biomarkers having practical application in management and conservation. We conducted a phylogenetic comparative analysis using publicly available datasets to test the efficacy of GCs as a biomarker for large spatial-scale avian population monitoring. We used hormone data from HormoneBase (51 species), natural history information and US national land cover data to determine if baseline or stress-induced corticosterone varies with the amount of usable land cover types within each species' home range. We found that stress-induced levels, but not baseline, positively correlated with per cent usable land cover both within and across species. Our results indicate that GC concentrations may be a useful biomarker for characterizing populations across a range of habitat availability, and we advocate for more physiological studies on non-traditional species in less studied populations to build on this framework. This article is part of the theme issue 'Endocrine responses to environmental variation: conceptual approaches and recent developments'.

The large-scale expansion of rubber plantations in southern India: major impacts and the changing nature of drivers

This study investigates the major environmental and socio-economic impacts of an increase in the area of rubber plantations and the changing patterns of drivers of land use changes. Using a combination of geospatial techniques and socio-economic methods, we mainly analyzed the rate of increase in area under rubber plantations, the major impacts of land use changes, and the changing drivers of land use changes. Our results show that the area under rubber plantations has increased significantly within the study area, with the area under rubber plantations increasing from 30 to 74% of the total area within five decades. Impact assessment of land use changes based on household surveys showed significant improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the farmers, however, at the expense of severe environmental degradation. Our results also indicate that while areas under rubber plantations continue to increase, the drivers of land use changes have changed over time. Furthermore, it has been observed that in the past, many interventions prioritized social and economic development and placed less emphasis on the ecological stability of the region. Perceptions of farmers revealed that the effects of ecological fragility already affected the economic robustness of the whole area. Therefore, we conclude that government interventions to support additional rubber cultivation should also focus on ecosystem stabilization in order to minimize the risk of an ecological catastrophe that would significantly affect the economic prosperity of the region.

Temporal change in urban fish biodiversity-Gains, losses, and drivers of change

Our aim was to examine temporal change in alpha and beta diversity of freshwater fish communities in rivers that have urbanized over the same period to understand the influence of changes in land use and river connectivity on community change. We used biological (2001-2018), land use (2000-2015), and connectivity data (1987-2017) from Toronto, Ontario, Canada. We used linear mixed effects models to determine the strength of upstream land use, connectivity, and their changes over time to explain temporal change in alpha and beta diversity indices. We examined beta diversity using the temporal beta diversity index (TBI) to assess site-specific community change. The TBI was partitioned into gains and losses, and species-specific changes in abundance were assessed using paired t-tests. There were more gains than losses across the study sites as measured by TBI. We found little to no significant differences in species-specific abundances at aggregated spatial scales (study region, watershed, stream order). We found different relationships between landscape and connectivity variables with the biodiversity indices tested; however, almost all estimated confidence intervals overlapped with zero and had low goodness-of-fit. More fish biodiversity gains than losses were found across the study region, as measured by TBI. We found TBI to be a useful indicator of change as it identifies key sites to further investigate. We found two high value TBI sites gained non-native species, and one site shifted from a cool-water to warm-water species dominated community, both of which have management implications. Upstream catchment land use and connectivity had poor explanatory power for change in the measured biodiversity indices. Ultimately, such spatial-temporal datasets are invaluable and can reveal trends in biodiversity useful for environmental management when considering competing interests involved with urban sprawl in the ongoing "Decade on Restoration."

A spatio-temporal analysis of the magnitude and trend of land use/land cover changes in Gilgel Gibe Catchment, Southwest Ethiopia

Analyzing alterations in land use/land cover is crucial for water Scientists, planners, and decision-makers in watershed management. This examination enables the development of effective solutions to mitigate the adverse impacts resulting from such changes. The focus of this research was analyzing alterations in land use/land cover within the Gilgel Gibe Catchment in 1991 - 2021. LULC data of 1991-2021 were derived from multispectral Landsat images. Data were also gathered using field observations and key informant interview. Data of LULC classes (1991-2021) were generated utilizing supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm of ENVI 5.1 and ArcGIS 10.5. Change detection analysis and accuracy assessment were done where accuracy levels all the study periods were > 85 %, and the overall Kappa statistics of the periods were > 0.89. Built-up area and cultivated land of the catchment are increasing with increasing magnitude of change; whereas, while forest cover and grazing land of the catchment are shrinking with declining magnitudes of change, shrubland covers and water body are declining with increasing magnitude of change in the catchment. The net increase in degraded land is a reflection of the increasing degradation of natural resources in the catchment. Swift escalation of population and the subsequent raising demand for farmland and forest and shrub (e.g. fuel-wood and construction) products, decline yield, unemployment and lack of alternative income source, and open access and limited conservation of resources are the principal factors for the dramatic shrinkages of grazing, forest, water body and shrubland resources. Thus, concerned bodies should take rehabilitation measures to restore degraded lands, improve production and yield of farmland by increasing improved farm-inputs and irrigation, and create employment and alternative income sources for the youth, women and the poor so as to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods and to curb the impacts on forest, shrubland and other resources.

Land-Use Decisions Have Substantial Air Quality Health Effects

Understanding how best to use limited land without compromising food security, health, and beneficial ecosystem functions is a critical challenge of our time. Ecosystem service assessments increasingly inform land-use decisions but seldom include the effects of land use on air quality, the largest environmental health risk. Here, we estimate and value the air quality health effects of potential land-use policies and projected trends in the United States, alongside carbon sequestration and economic returns to land, until 2051. We show that air quality health effects are of first-order importance in land-use decisions, often larger in value than carbon sequestration and economic returns combined. When air quality is properly accounted for, policies that appeared beneficial are shown to be detrimental and vice versa. Land-use-driven air quality impacts are largely from agricultural emissions and biogenic forest emissions, although incentives for reduced deforestation remain beneficial overall. Without evaluating air quality, we are unable to determine whether land-use decisions make us better or worse off.

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services: a case study of the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi

Exploring the role of landscape patterns in the trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) is helpful for understanding ES generation and transmission processes and is of great significance for multiple ES management. However, few studies have addressed the potential spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on trade-offs/synergies among ESs. This study assessed the landscape patterns and five typical ESs (water retention (WR), food supply (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil retention (SR), and landscape aesthetics (LA)) on the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi and used the revised trade-off/synergy degree indicator to measure trade-offs/synergies among ESs. The multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was constructed to determine the spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on the trade-offs/synergies. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2010, the increase in cultivated land and the decrease in forestland and grassland increased landscape diversity and decreased landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation. During 2010-2020, the change range decreased, the spatial distribution was homogeneous, and the landscape diversity and fragmentation in the northwestern area increased significantly. (2) The supply of the five ESs continued to increase from 2000 to 2020. During 2000-2010, FS-SR, FS-LA and SR-LA were dominated by synergies. From 2010 to 2020, the proportion of trade-off units in all relationships increased, and HQ-FS, HQ-SR and HQ-LA were dominated by trade-offs. (3) Landscape patterns had complex impacts on trade-offs/synergies, and the same landscape variable could have the opposite impact on specific trade-offs/synergies in different periods and areas. The results of this study will inform managers in developing regional sustainable ecosystem management strategies and advocating for more research to address ecological issues from a spatial-temporal perspective.

Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains

Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households' settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households.

Optimal allocation for land in an arid inland basin in northwest China: framework and application based on CLUE-S and MCR models

Reasonable planning of the limited land resources can promote the coordinated development of social economic and ecological protection. It is very important to optimize the rational distribution of land resources in the arid inland river basin because of the scarce land. In this paper, the GIS technologies of spatial analysis, conversion of land use, and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model were used to optimize the land allocation. The ecological security pattern (ESP) was constructed through using MCR model, which included ecological source and resistance surface. The dynamics of land use and spatial optimizing allocation of Shiyang River Basin in 2025 and 2030 was simulated under three different optimization scenarios including farmland protection scenario (FPS), free development scenario (FDS), and ecological security pattern scenario (ESPS). It was found that under ESPS, farmland was reduced, but woodland, grassland, and water body were increased significantly. Under FPS, land for construction was controlled effectively, a large part of homestead was converted into farmland, and the potential of unused land was developed vigorously. Furthermore, the current FDS and macro policy guidance should be comprehensively considered. The ESPS was more suitable for the scientific development of Shiyang River Basin on a long view. The combination of CLUE-S and MCR can effectively improve the optimization methods under ecological process and ecological resistance of landscape elements.

Assessment of Land Cover Status and Change in the World and "the Belt and Road" Region from 2016 to 2020

The assessment of land cover and changes will help to understand the temporal and spatial pattern of land cover in the world and the Belt and Road (B&R) region, and provide reference information for global sustainable development and the Belt and Road construction. In this paper, the 1 km global land cover classification maps of 2016 and 2020 with a high accuracy of 88% are mapped using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series surface reflectance products. Based on the maps, the land cover status of the world and the Belt and Road region, the land cover change from 2016 to 2020, and the mutual transformation characteristics between various types, are analyzed. The research results indicate that from 2016 to 2020, the global change rates of cropland, forest, grassland, and impervious surface are 0.25%, 0.22%, 0.08% and 3.41%, respectively. In the Belt and Road region, the change rates of cropland, forest, grassland, and impervious surface are 0.42%, 0.60%, -0.55% and 2.98% respectively. The assessment results will help to clarify the spatial pattern of land cover change in the five years from 2016 to 2020, so as to provide valuable scientific information for the global realization of sustainable development goals and the construction of the B&R.

Large-scale land acquisitions exacerbate local farmland inequalities in Tanzania

Land inequality stalls economic development, entrenches poverty, and is associated with environmental degradation. Yet, rigorous assessments of land-use interventions attend to inequality only rarely. A land inequality lens is especially important to understand how recent large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) affect smallholder and indigenous communities across as much as 100 million hectares around the world. This paper studies inequalities in land assets, specifically landholdings and farm size, to derive insights into the distributional outcomes of LSLAs. Using a household survey covering four pairs of land acquisition and control sites in Tanzania, we use a quasi-experimental design to characterize changes in land inequality and subsequent impacts on well-being. We find convincing evidence that LSLAs in Tanzania lead to both reduced landholdings and greater farmland inequality among smallholders. Households in proximity to LSLAs are associated with 21.1% (P = 0.02) smaller landholdings while evidence, although insignificant, is suggestive that farm sizes are also declining. Aggregate estimates, however, hide that households in the bottom quartiles of farm size suffer the brunt of landlessness and land loss induced by LSLAs that combine to generate greater farmland inequality. Additional analyses find that land inequality is not offset by improvements in other livelihood dimensions, rather farm size decreases among households near LSLAs are associated with no income improvements, lower wealth, increased poverty, and higher food insecurity. The results demonstrate that without explicit consideration of distributional outcomes, land-use policies can systematically reinforce existing inequalities.

Human alterations of the global floodplains 1992-2019

Floodplains provide critical ecosystem services; however, loss of natural floodplain functions caused by human alterations increase flood risks and lead to massive loss of life and property. Despite recent calls for improved floodplain protection and management, a comprehensive, global-scale assessment quantifying human floodplain alterations does not exist. We developed the first publicly available global dataset that quantifies human alterations in 15 million km2 floodplains along 520 major river basins during the recent 27 years (1992-2019) at 250-m resolution. To maximize the reuse of our dataset and advance the open science of human floodplain alteration, we developed three web-based programming tools supported with tutorials and step-by-step audiovisual instructions. Our data reveal a significant loss of natural floodplains worldwide with 460,000 km2 of new agricultural and 140,000 km2 of new developed areas between 1992 and 2019. This dataset offers critical new insights into how floodplains are being destroyed, which will help decision-makers to reinforce strategies to conserve and restore floodplain functions and habitat.

Effects of habitat management on rodent diversity, abundance, and virus infection dynamics

As anthropogenic factors continue to degrade natural areas, habitat management is needed to restore and maintain biodiversity. However, the impacts of different habitat management regimes on ecosystems have largely focused on vegetation analyses, with limited evaluation of downstream effects on wildlife. We compared the effects of grassland management regimes (prescribed burning, cutting/haying, or no active management) on rodent communities and the viruses they hosted. Rodents were trapped in 13 existing grassland sites in Northwest Arkansas, USA during 2020 and 2021. Rodent blood samples were screened for antibodies against three common rodent-borne virus groups: orthohantaviruses, arenaviruses, and orthopoxviruses. We captured 616 rodents across 5953 trap nights. Burned and unmanaged sites had similarly high abundance and diversity, but burned sites had a higher proportion of grassland species than unmanaged sites; cut sites had the highest proportion of grassland species but the lowest rodent abundance and diversity. A total of 38 rodents were seropositive for one of the three virus groups (34 orthohantavirus, three arenavirus, and one orthopoxvirus). Thirty-six seropositive individuals were found in burned sites, and two orthohantavirus-seropositive individuals were found in cut sites. Cotton rats and prairie voles, two grassland species, accounted for 97% of the rodents seropositive for orthohantavirus. Our study indicates that prescribed burns lead to a diverse and abundant community of grassland rodent species compared with other management regimes; as keystone taxa, these results also have important implications for many other species in food webs. Higher prevalence of antibodies against rodent-borne viruses in burned prairies shows an unexpected consequence likely resulting from robust host population densities supported by the increased habitat quality of these sites. Ultimately, these results provide empirical evidence that can inform grassland restoration and ongoing management strategies.

Does experimental seaweed cultivation affect benthic communities and shorebirds? Applications for extensive aquaculture

Extensive seaweed aquaculture is a growing industry expected to expand globally due to its relatively low impact and benefits in the form of ecosystem services. However, seaweeds are ecosystem engineers that may alter coastal environments by creating complex habitats on previously bare mudflats. These changes may scale up to top-consumers, particularly migratory shorebirds, species of conservation concern that regulate trophic webs at these habitats. Understanding how habitats are transformed and how this affects different species is critical to direct ecological applications for commercial seaweed management. We experimentally assessed through a Before-After Control-Impact design the potential changes exerted by Gracilaria chilensis farming on bare mudflats on the abundance, biomass, and assemblage structure of benthic macroinvertebrates, and their scaled-up effects on shorebirds' habitat use and prey consumption. As predicted, experimental cultivation of G. chilensis significantly affects different components of biodiversity that scale-up from lower to upper trophic levels. The total biomass of benthic macroinvertebrates increased with seaweed cultivation and remained high for at least 2 months after harvest, boosted by an increase in the median size of polychaetes, particularly Nereids. Tactile-foraging shorebirds tracked these changes at the patch level increasing their abundance and spending more time foraging at seaweed cultivated plots. These results suggest that seaweed farming has the potential to impact shorebird populations by favoring tactile-foraging species which could lead to a competitive disadvantage to species that rely on visual cues. Therefore, the establishment of new seaweed farms in bare mudflats at key sites for shorebirds must be planned warranting habitat heterogeneity (i.e., cultivated and non-cultivated areas) at the landscape level and based on a previous experimental approach to account for local characteristics. Fostering properly designed extensive seaweed farming over other aquaculture industries with greater negative environmental impacts would provide benefits for human well-being and for ecosystem functions.

Interactive effect of land use systems on depth-wise soil properties and micronutrients minerals in North-Western, India

Micronutrients play a vital role in improving growth and performance of different crops. Management of soil micronutrients for better crop production needs sound understanding of their status and causes of variability. Therefore, in order to evaluate the changes in soil properties and micronutrient contents of soils, an experiment was conducted with soil samples from six soil depths i.e. 0-10, 10-20, 20-40,40-60, 60-80 and 80-100 cm of four prominent land-use systems viz. forest, horticulture, crop land and barren land. Amongst these, the maximum contents of OC (0.36%), clay (19.4%), DTPA-Zn (1.14 mg kg^-1), Fe (11.78 mg kg^-1), Mn (5.37 mg kg^-1), Cu (0.85 mg kg^-1) and Ni (1.44 mg kg^_1) were observed in soils of forest land use system followed by horticulture, crop land and barren land, respectively. Also, soils of forest landpossessed 29.5, 21.3, 58.4, 51.8 and 44.0% higher DTPA-Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu and Ni as compared to crop land use system. Interactive influence of land use systems and soil depths on distribution of DTPA extractable micronutrients was found to be positive with maximum content at 0-10 cm depth of forest land use and lowest at 80-100 cm of barren land use system, respectively. Correlation analysis explicit positive and significant relationship of OC with DTPA Zn (r = 0.81), Fe (r = 0.79), Mn (r = 0.77), Cu (r = 0.84) andNi (r = 0.80), whereas the correlation results among DTPA micronutrients indicated the highest positivecorrelation of Ni with Cu (r = 0.95) and Mn (r = 0.93) followed by Fe with Zn (r = 0.93). Therefore, inclusion of forest and horticulture land use in crop lands or shift of land use from forest based to crop land resulted in renewal of degraded soil which could be beneficial for enhancing agricultural sustainability.

Research on the interaction of "tourism development-land use-landscape pattern" since the 1990s in a small karst basin, China

The rapid rise of tourism in the karst regions has promoted the development of the local economy by relying on the unique landforms and landscapes. However, tourism development is often accompanied by land use changes and has an impact on the ecological environment. Exploring the coupling relationship between "tourism development-land use-landscape pattern" is very important for ecologically fragile karst areas. Taking the Yulong River Basin as an example, this research applied 3S technology, spatial analysis based on POIs, and regression analysis to the following: (1) identifying the process and effects of land use change, (2) determining the spatial pattern of tourism land and its correlation with land use change, (3) determining the characteristics and impacts of landscape pattern evolution. As the results suggested: (1) The significant expansion of construction land occupies a large amount of farmland, there is a balanced relationship between farmland and forest land for mutual conversion. (2) The aggregation of tourist land is affected by the trend of tourist behavior and the distribution of scenic spots. There is a significant moderate positive correlation between tourism land and construction land. (3) With the land use change, landscape heterogeneity has improved, but landscape fragmentation is serious and landscape connectivity is reduced. This research provides new evidences for the effect of the rapid development of tourism on land use change and ecological environment and as a reference to future orderly and moderate land development and ecological sustainability in karst regions.

The Relationship between the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Use Function and the Level of Economic and Social Development in the Yangtze River Delta

To explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use function and its correlation with social and economic development levels, taking the Yangtze River Delta region as an example, we quantified the multifunctional land use in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2020 on a 5 km × 5 km grid and analyzed its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. Each city's comprehensive measure of economic development used the projection tracing method. Person's method of interpretation was used for correlation between the spatial and temporal evolution of land use functions and the level of economic development and its coupling association. The study shows that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the agricultural production function > ecological function > living function > non-agricultural production function in the Yangtze River Delta, but the non-agricultural production and living functions were gradually increasing, while the agricultural production and ecological functions were decreasing. In terms of spatial distribution, the agricultural production function decreases significantly around the built-up area due to the expansion of the built-up area. The non-agricultural production function strengthened around the central city in a network pattern and had a path-locking effect. Topography limits life functions, with high north and low south partially overlapping with non-agricultural production functions. Furthermore, the ecological function was high in the south and low in the north and continues to weaken due to the interference of human activities. (2) The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of different functions generated trade-offs/synergies. The trade-off relationship was prominent in agricultural production and non-farm production function and living function, and non-farm production and living function and ecological function during the study period. Conversely, agricultural production and ecological functions and non-farm production and subsistence functions were generally synergistic. Spatially, there was substantial spatial heterogeneity in the trade-off/synergy relationship between the two functions. (3) There was a clear correlation and spatial coupling between land use function indices and economic development levels in the whole region and sample zones. Still, the dynamic and regional nature of the evolution of land use functions results in sudden changes and jumps in different functions in space. Therefore, in the future integration of the Yangtze River Delta, it is necessary to pay comprehensive attention to the morphology of different land use functions and their synergy/trade-off relationship and to adjust the spatial governance strategy promptly according to the local conditions and the situation.

Analysis of the impact of traditional ethnic villages in Hani area on sustainable development

Rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization have seriously affected the development of traditional ethnic villages in China. We used the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model based on land use, landscape pattern, and ecosystem service value (ESV) to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of sustainable development in Hani traditional ethnic villages from 1995 to 2020. By analyzing changes in sustainability indicators in the Hani area and different buffer zones, this paper aims to assess the impact of ethnic villages in the Hani Area on sustainable development and provide recommendations for the sustainable development of traditional ethnic Hani villages. The results indicated that: (1) The area of construction land and landscape fragmentation in the Hani area significantly increased and the value of ecosystem services and levels of sustainable development decreased each year during the study period; (2) The area of cropland in the 2 km buffer zone of the traditional ethnic villages increased, the degree of landscape fragmentation, the value of ecosystem services, and the level of sustainable development were lower than in the 4 km buffer zone during the study period. This is due to population increases in traditional ethnic Hani villages, as well as the intensive reclamation of cropland, increased construction land, and landscape fragmentation. We suggest that the Hani should implement scientific land planning and management policies to protect the local ecosystem and realize the sustainable development of traditional ethnic Hani villages.

Do changes in land use, water bodies, and grazing pastures have a detrimental influence on environmental quality? Opportunities and threats to long-term growth

Land use activities mainly for economic and agricultural purposes have converted one third to one half of our planet's land surface into urban expansion and agricultural practice, which has had significant impacts on natural ecosystems, food production, and environmental quality, attracting the attention of researchers and policymakers. Consequently, land use is emerging as a fundamental issue in global environmental change and sustainable development. This study represents an addition to the prevailing literature by investigating the asymmetric impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on environmental quality in Pakistan using time series data from 1961 to 2016. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were deemed a dependent variable (a proxy for environmental quality), whereas built-up land, cropland, water bodies, and grazing land were considered independent. A nonlinear ARDL bound testing technique (NARDL) was used to investigate dynamic cointegration among the study variables. Moreover, this study used the BDS test and structural break unit root test to confirm nonlinearity and stationarity of the data set. The results confirm that the variables exhibit asymmetrical co-integration. There is a symmetric unidirectional causation, running from built-up land and grazing land towards CO2 emissions with coefficients of 10.570 and 17.045, respectively. Furthermore, asymmetric causality shows that any positive shocks to built-up land (6.134) and water bodies (20.335) significantly cause CO2 emissions. Similarly, a negative shock to grazing land (16.470) also causes CO2 emissions. By contrast, a neutral effect was found between cropland and CO2 emissions.

Carbon sinks and carbon emissions balance of land use transition in Xinjiang, China: differences and compensation

With the continuous enhancement of human activities, the contradiction between regional development and ecological protection is prominent in the ecologically fragile arid areas. It is of great significance for regional sustainable development to understand the ecological supply and demand problems caused by transformation of land using and formulate ecological compensation scheme scientifically. This study takes Xinjiang in China as the research area. It explores the land use transition characteristics and the changes in carbon supply and demand of Xinjiang using methods such as GIS spatial analysis and modified comparative ecological radiation forcing. Finally, the ecological compensation scheme is studied based on the theory of ecological radiation. The research shows that (I) in the study chronology, most of the areas produced only one change in land use. Land use is gradually developing towards the direction of ecological protection. After 2000, grassland recovered well, and 14,298 km2 of other ecological land was transformed into grassland. (II) The change in the carbon sink of the Xinjiang ecosystem first decreased and then increased, and the ecological deficit area started to appear after 2010. The growth of grassland and cropland areas is essential to enhance the carbon sink capacity of arid zones. (III) The amount of ecological compensation in Xinjiang is 31.47 * 108 yuan, and the proportion of the amount received by ecological compensation areas is related to the distance between the supply and demand areas, the amount of carbon sequestration, and the area of the region. This study provides a reference for achieving the healthy development of sustainable land use ecosystems in arid zones.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Wetland in Dongting Lake Based on Multi-Source Satellite Observation Data during Last Two Decades

Monitoring the dynamics of wetland resources has practical value for wetland protection, restoration and sustainable utilization. Dongting Lake wetland reserves are well known for both their intra-annual and inter-annual dynamic changes due to the effects of natural or human factors. However, most wetland monitoring research has failed to consider the seasonal wetlands, which is the most fragile wetland type, requiring more attention. In this study, we used multi-source time series remote sensing data to monitor three Dongting Lake wetland reserves between 2000 and 2020, and the seasonal wetlands were separated from permanent wetlands. Multispectral and indices time series were generated at 30 m resolution using a two-month composition strategy; the optimal features were then selected using the extension of the Jeffries-Matusita distance (J_Bh) and random forest (RF) importance score; yearly wetland maps were identified using the optimal features and the RF classifier. Results showed that (1) the yearly wetland maps had good accuracy, and the overall accuracy and kappa coefficients of all wetland maps from 2000 to 2020 were above 89.6% and 0.86, respectively. Optimal features selected by J_Bh can improve both computational efficiency and classification accuracy. (2) The acreage of seasonal wetlands varies greatly among multiple years due to inter-annual differences in precipitation and evaporation. (3) Although the total wetland area of the three Dongting Lake wetland reserves remained relatively stable between 2000 and 2020, the acreage of the natural wetland types still decreased by 197.0 km², and the change from natural wetland to human-made wetland (paddy field) contributed the most to this decrease. From the perspective of the ecological community, the human-made wetland has lower ecological function value than natural wetlands, so the balance between economic development and ecological protection in the three Dongting Lake wetland reserves requires further evaluation. The outcomes of this study could improve the understanding of the trends and driving mechanisms of wetland dynamics, which has important scientific significance and application value for the protection and restoration of Dongting Lake wetland reserves.

Future land-use competition constrains natural climate solutions

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are an essential complement to climate mitigation and have been increasingly incorporated into international mitigation strategies. Yet, with the ongoing population growth, allocating natural areas for NCS may compete with other socioeconomic priorities, especially urban development and food security. Here, we projected the impacts of land-use competition incurred by cropland and urban expansion on the climate mitigation potential of NCS. We mapped the areas available for implementing 9 key NCS strategies and estimated their climate change mitigation potential. Then, we overlaid these areas with future cropland and urban expansion maps projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2020-2100) and calculated the resulting mitigation potential loss of each selected NCS strategy. Our results estimate a substantial reduction, 0.3-2.8 GtCO₂ yr^-1 or 4-39 %, in NCS mitigation potential, of which cropland expansion for fulfilling future food demand is the primary cause. This impact is particularly severe in the tropics where NCS hold the most abundant mitigation potential. Our findings highlight immediate actions prioritized to tropical areas are important to best realize NCS and are key to developing realistic and sustainable climate policies.

Monitoring land use and land cover change near a nuclear power plant construction site: Akkuyu case, Turkey

Land use and land cover (LULC) change analysis of the construction site and its surroundings of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project in southern Turkey was undertaken in this case study, which was supported by remotely sensed Landsat 8 image composites. The composite images compiled in 2017 and 2021 were prepared on the Google Earth Engine platform. The Random Forest algorithm was used as the classifier model. A high classification performance was obtained for both images (kappa > 0.88, overall accuracy > 90%). After the classification process, LULC maps for both years were generated, and statistical calculations for the LULC change were computed for both the entire study area (15 × 25 km) and a buffer zone with a radius of 1 km around the power plant. In the whole study area, artificial surfaces significantly increased (78.46%), whereas forests (- 8.31%) and barren lands experienced a considerable decrease (- 6.11%). In the 1 km buffer, artificial surfaces predominantly increased (113.94%), while forests and barren lands decreased dramatically (- 69.13% and - 74.28%, respectively). The agricultural areas in the study area were changed into other LULC classes: 9.1% to artificial surfaces, 27.6% to barren lands, and 21.7% to forest. The rise in the area of artificial surfaces was especially noticeable within the 1 km buffer zone: construction activities converted 36.1% of agricultural fields, 54.1% of forests, and 23.2% of barren lands into artificial surfaces. The filling activities on the seashore resulted in a loss of water bodies of up to 26.5%. The study provides an overview of how the LULC classes have evolved on the construction site and in the region. In the end, the study discusses how the current land use preferences in the region contradict the issues and concerns mentioned in the existing body of literature.

Evaluating the Coordinated Development between Urban Greening and Economic Growth in Chinese Cities during 2005 to 2019

Balancing economic growth with environmental protection is vital for the sustainable development of cities and regions. However, urban greening has rarely been considered in extensive studies. This study incorporates urban greening into a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, in order to evaluate its coordination with economic performance. A total of 286 cities in China between 2005 and 2019 were selected as specific study subjects. Meanwhile, clustering method was used to classify different clusters based on CCD values, the Gini coefficient analysis was applied to discover the CCD values inequality characteristics and the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) method was employed to study the CCD values spatial aggregation features. The results indicate that the CCD values presented significant spatial heterogeneity. Spatially, the CCD values were divided into eight clusters, with those in the eastern region generally being higher than in the central and western regions. Temporally, the CCD in all cities showed an increasing trend, but more than 60% of cities were still in the uncoordinated or low-level coordination stage. In addition, inequality and spatial aggregation characteristics were observed in CCD values, both of which presented decreasing trends. Greening has a stronger influence on the linked and coordinated growth of the two systems; therefore, we propose policy recommendations for pursuing the development of environmentally friendly cities from different aspects. In summary, this research allows for a better understanding of economic and environmental relationships, thus contributing to the objective of creating sustainable cities and communities.

Real Estate Developers as Agents in the Simulation of Urban Sprawl

Urban expansion is one of the processes that generates the greatest impact on the distribution of land uses, leading to important territorial changes. Its evolution has become a highly relevant object of analysis and studies on the subject have gradually advanced from a focus on patterns of land use and cover, towards a more detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions between all the actors involved in these processes. Among the agents usually included as an active and decisive part of these dynamics are the real estate developers. This study aims to analyze these agents, identify their behavioral patterns, and categorize and better understand them. For this, a qualitative approach was employed, in which a structured questionnaire elaborated from the point of view of an expert was administrated to the real estate developers in the area of the Henares urban–industrial corridor, between Madrid and Guadalajara, where important processes of urban expansion have taken place. The information obtained from an interview with an expert and the questionnaire revealed important information about the work of real estate developers and will be of great help in the elaboration of an Agent-Based Model to simulate and analyze urban growth. This process is crucial to determine in a more empirical way the different decision rules that are necessary to develop this type of model.

Land Use Change Simulation in Rapid Urbanizing Regions: A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Areas

Until now, few studies have used the mainstreaming models to simulate the land use changes in the cities of rapid urbanizing regions. Therefore, we aimed to develop a methodology to simulate the land use changes in rapid urbanizing regions that could reveal the land use change trend in the cities of the regions. Taking the urban areas of Wuhan, a typical rapid urbanizing region in China, as the study area, this study built a Markov chain–artificial neural network (ANN)–cellular automaton (CA) coupled model. The model used land use classification spatial data with a spatial resolution of 5 m in 2010 and 2020, obtained by remote sensing image interpretation, and data on natural and socio-economic driving forces for land use change simulation. Using the coupled model, the land use patterns of Wuhan urban areas in 2020 were simulated, which were validated in comparison with the actual land use data in 2020. Finally, the model was used to simulate the land uses in the study area in 2030. The model validation indicates that the land use change simulation has a high accuracy of 90.7% and a high kappa coefficient of 0.87. The simulated land uses of the urban areas of Wuhan show that artificial surfaces will continue to expand, with an area increase of approximately 7% from 2020 to 2030. Moreover, the area of urban green spaces will also increase by approximately 7%, while that of water bodies, grassland, cropland, and forests will decrease by 12.6%, 13.6%, 34.9%, and 1.3%, respectively, from 2020 to 2030. This study provides a method of simulating the land use changes in the cities of rapid urbanizing regions and helps to reveal the patterns and driving mechanisms of land use change in Wuhan urban areas.

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Nanjing’s Urban Expansion and Its Driving Mechanisms

The expansion and evolution of urban areas are the most perceptible manifestations of the transformation of the urban spatial form. This study uses remote sensing images of Nanjing from 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021, along with socio-economic data to analyse the spatio-temporal characteristics of the city’s urban expansion. Furthermore, we utilize a binary logistic regression to quantitatively analyse the driving forces in each stage. We find that from 2001 to 2021, Nanjing’s urban area expanded approximately 3.97 times. Notably, the city started moving from a stage of medium-speed development to rapid development in 2006, and then slowed down and returned to medium-speed development in 2011. The urban land mainly expanded in the north, northeast, southeast, and southwest directions in a lopsided cross-shape roughly along the northwest-southeast direction; meanwhile, the city’s centre of gravity continuously moved towards the southeast. Among the driving factors, neighbourhood (distance from planned commercial centres, railways, and highways), topography, and geolocation (distance from the Yangtze River, and elevation) had a greater, albeit inhibitory effect on urban expansion. However, the effects of different socio-economic factors (GDP per capita, resident population, secondary and tertiary industry, etc.) varied across different time periods.

Land Change Science and the STEPLand Framework: An Assessment of Its Progress

This contribution assesses a new term that is proposed to be established within Land Change Science: Spatio-TEmporal Patterns of Land (‘STEPLand’). It refers to a specific workflow for analyzing land-use/land cover (LUC) patterns, identifying and modeling driving forces of LUC changes, assessing socio-environmental consequences, and contributing to defining future scenarios of land transformations. In this article, we define this framework based on a comprehensive meta-analysis of 250 selected articles published in international scientific journals from 2000 to 2019. The empirical results demonstrate that STEPLand is a consolidated protocol applied globally, and the large diversity of journals, disciplines, and countries involved shows that it is becoming ubiquitous. In this paper, the main characteristics of STEPLand are provided and discussed, demonstrating that the operational procedure can facilitate the interaction among researchers from different fields, and communication between researchers and policy makers.

Linking Pattern to Process: Intensity Analysis of Land-Change Dynamics in Ghana as Correlated to Past Socioeconomic and Policy Contexts

Spatio-temporal analysis of transitions in land cover is critical to understanding many ecological challenges, especially in environmentally vulnerable regions. For instance, in Sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale cropland expansion is expected due to the increasing demand for fuel, food, and fibre. Clearing land for cropland expansion is a driving factor in the degradation of natural ecosystems. We present a spatio-temporal analysis of land-cover change in Ghana’s Northern, Upper East, and Upper West provinces using Intensity Analysis on the periods from 1992 to 2003 and 2003 to 2015. The objectives of this study were to determine whether the intensity of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is consistent between the two periods and to investigate the direction and extent of change for different LULC categories in northern Ghana. The methodology measures land-cover changes at the interval, category, and transition levels. The results suggest that the annual rate of land change was higher between 1992 and 2003 compared to that between 2003 and 2015. Furthermore, the category-level analysis reveals that the gains in the arable land and tree/forest-cover classes during both time intervals were higher than the uniform intensity. The transition-level analysis results indicate that most of the gains in arable land and tree/forest-cover came at the cost of semi-arid shrublands during both periods. There is also evidence of local increases in forest-cover, likely linked to afforestation policies established by the Ghanian government; however, overall, there has been a loss of natural habitat. The study provides data to improve our understanding of the magnitude and direction of land-cover change, essential for the development of policies designed to mitigate the impact of land-cover change on the livelihoods of local people and the environment at the national and sub-national levels.

Systematicity and Stability Analysis of Land Use Change—Taking Jinan, China, as an Example

The study of the systematic stability of land use change is essential for regulating land use results and layout. This article took Jinan, China, as an example, and used the land transfer matrix to calculate the changing area and intensity based on remote sensing image maps and land use status maps, and then used the intensity analysis method to compare the changing intensity with the average intensity at three levels: interval level, land category level, and transition level. The systematicity and stability of land use changes from 2005 to 2018 in Jinan were analyzed using intensity analysis. The results showed that the intensity of land use change in Jinan led to a rapid change pattern from 2005 to 2010 and a slow change pattern from 2010 to 2018. The occupation of cultivated land by construction land in Jinan showed high activity, while the transition process of cultivated land to construction land and other land categories showed a steady, systematic change pattern, other land categories showed different trends and intensities of change, and the transition of forest land and other land categories showed stability in time scale. The results showed that the changes in construction land were mainly due to external influences, showing a systematic non-steady change pattern.

Validating local drivers influencing land use cover change in Southwestern Ghana: a mixed-method approach

Addressing undesirable changes associated with the driving forces of land use cover change are critical to sustainable land management, and the future modeling of land use systems in developing countries. The study accentuates local drivers of land use cover change in Southwestern Ghana using a mixed-method approach. The approach aided in identifying key land-use drivers, using different research strategies for comparisons through confidence level analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process. We used expert interviews, existing literature and geostatistical tools to ascertain the driving forces triggering such unprecedented changes. Landsat imagery 5 MSS, 4 and 5 TM, 7 ETM + and 8 OLI/TIRS were acquired from the United States Geological Survey's website. Land-use analysis revealed a decline in forests (- 82.41%) and areas covered by waterbodies (- 27.39%). A fundamental drift in built-up (+ 1288.36%) and farmlands/shrubs (+ 369.81%) areas were also observed. The contribution rate of change analysis revealed built-environment and increasing population contributed the most to surface temperature and land-use change. A steady increase in surface temperature can be attributed to the undesirable changes associated with land-use systems over the past 50 years. Socio-economic development in Southwestern Ghana is fuelling interest in studies related to land use cover change. Biophysical, cultural and technological factors are considered key drivers despite the "medium-to-very low confidence" in results generated. They could potentially impact climate-sensitive sectors that significantly modify land-use systems from the pessimists' and optimists' perspectives. Standpoints established through this study will enrich basic datasets for further studies at the continental level.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12665-022-10481-y.

Effects of land use and land cover change on soil organic carbon storage in the Hexi regions, Northwest China

Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in arid inland regions is significantly affected by land use and land cover change (LUCC) associated with climate change and agricultural activities. A systematic evaluation to the LUCC effects on SOC storage could enable us to better manage soil carbon pools in arid inland regions. Here, we evaluated the effects of LUCC on SOC storage in the Hexi Regions based on high-resolution SOC and LUCC maps derived from Landsat imagery and digital soil mapping using machine learning algorithm and environmental covariates. The results showed that SOC generally increased from northwest to southeast over the Hexi Regions with an average stock of 7.15 kg C m^-2 at a soil depth of 100 cm and a total storage of 2783.05 Tg C. The SOC stock and storage in the Qilian Mountains (mountains) was about 3.90 and 4.55 times higher than that in the Hexi Corridor (plains), respectively. It was estimated that LUCC over the past four decades caused a net increase of 23.41 and 18.19 Tg C in total SOC storage for the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor, respectively. Specifically, the development in grasslands quality as well as the land-use category conversion from the bare land to grassland mainly contributed to the increase in SOC storage of the Qilian Mountains, where the LUCC was mainly driven by climate change. By contrast, the SOC storage change in the Hexi Corridor was mainly associated with the conversion from sandy land and low-cover grassland to cropland as well as sandy land to grassland, being mainly affected by intense cropland expansion and desertification control. Our results highlighted the importance of climate change and cropland expansion in enhancing SOC storage of the Qilian Mountains and Hexi corridor, respectively.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamic and Structural Characteristics of Land Use/Cover Change Based on a Complex Network: A Case Study of the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration

Due to the rapid urbanization and industrialization, urban agglomeration has become the area with the most drastic and concentrated land use change. The research on the evolution law and structural characteristics of urban agglomeration land use system is of great significance for the sustainable development. Taking the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration (MRYRUA) of China as the study area, we analyzed the phasic changes from 1980 to 2018 in land use/cover in the MRYRUA as well as the spatial differences between the three core regions. Furthermore, the transfer matrix of land use/cover change (LUCC) was converted to network, with land use types as nodes and conversion relationships between different land types as network connecting lines. Complex network indexes such as centrality, diffusion, and dominant flow were applied to identify the major changes in land use types, key change paths, and transformation patterns. The results show that: (1) in the past 40 years, the building land area in the MRYRUA has increased significantly, while the area of crop land and forest has, and still is, decreasing at an accelerated rate; (2) in terms of the scale, structure, and spatial distribution of land use transfer, there are distinct differences among the three core regions. The Wuhan metropolitan area has the largest intensity of land use transfer and the most drastic structural adjustment; (3) in all four periods, the land use transition network, crop land, and water bodies are the key land use types. Over time, the influence of building land and forest in the land use transition network has increased; and (4) the first transfer direction of each land use type was stable during different periods, such as the transfer of crop land to water bodies and building land, the transfer of water bodies to crop land, and the mutual transformations among crop land and forest, indicating a stable transfer pattern in the MRYRUA.

Centennial-Scale Land-Cover Change on Babeldaob Island, Palau

We used publicly available land-cover datasets (1921, 1947, 1976, 1992, 2001, 2006, 2014) to assess land-cover change on Babeldaob Island, Republic of Palau. Land-cover data were organized, classified, and summarized by area and percentage of island cover for forest, mangrove, non-forest vegetation, and non-vegetation. Japanese colonial administration of the island between 1921 and 1947 included industrial mining and agriculture, which reduced total non-mangrove forest cover by 16%. Temporal vegetation cover dynamics from 1947 through 2014 indicate unassisted forest regeneration of 12% with a concomitant decrease in non-forest vegetation including abandoned agriculture, the majority of which happened by 1976. Mangrove cover appears to have remained stable throughout the 93 year study period. Ground-truth observations showed the highest rates of vegetation cover change since 1976 for non-vegetated areas, followed by marsh and swamp forest. The proportion of non-vegetated cover increased at least twofold after WWII, with at least half comprising roads. Contrary to other tropical geographies, we saw forest expansion following completion of a major perimeter road. However, the larger landscape is permeated by dynamic forest edges subject to wildfire and other land-use disturbances.

Efficiency in the evolution of metro networks

Metro systems extended rapidly in China, especially in the last decade, developing over a half-century. This work explores the dynamical evolution of the structural efficiency of metro systems interpreted as complex networks for 14 large cities in mainland China. Based on the empirical observations, we find that the global efficiencies scale with the number of stations and counter-intuitively decreases as the metro networks expand, which shows a long-tail characteristic. The evolution of metro networks is, in essence, the improvement of the relative ratio of average nodal efficiency in the core compared to global efficiency. These relationships are in good agreement with the temporal structure of metro networks. Besides, we find that the metro stations with the higher efficiencies are those surrounding the urban center, and most of them dwell within the core and gradually expand the branches in space. Our findings suggest that the evolution properties of metro systems influenced by numerous geographical, historical, and social activities suggest that underlying, universal mechanisms are at play during their evolution in the spatial-temporal dimension.

Spatial–Temporal Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Land–Use Transition from the Perspective of Urban–Rural Transformation Development: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta

Urban–rural transformation development is the key to resolving the imbalance in the dual structure of urban and rural areas. However, the transformation of the urban–rural relationship will also affect the structure and spatial distribution of land use. This paper measured the spatial–temporal characteristics of land–use transition in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2018 by using a geo–information Tupu method and explored the driving mechanism of land–use transition under the background of urban–rural transformation development by using a spatial regression analysis method. The results showed the following: (1) The transition from cultivated land to urban construction land, from rural residential land to cultivated land, and from rural residential land to urban construction land were the three main types of land–use transition in the Yangtze River Delta during urban–rural transformation development. (2) The transition from cultivated land to urban construction land was always the most important type of land–use transition. It expanded from the central area to the surrounding cities. The transition of rural residential land to cultivated land and urban construction land began to increase significantly after the year 2010, which was the urban–rural integration development period. (3) The urban–rural land–use transition was driven by government policies, industrial restructuring, population urbanization and migration. During the urban–rural integration development period, secondary industry and tertiary industry were the main driving factors of the transition from cultivated land to urban construction land. The number of policies, the primary industry, the total population, and the urbanization rate were the main driving factors of the transition from rural residential land to cultivated land. Primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry were the main driving factors of the transition from rural residential land to urban construction land. Finally, the study provided some suggestions for policy, industry, and population driving forces.

Thermal and moisture response to land surface changes across different ecosystems over Heilong-Amur River Basin

The Heilong-Amur River Basin (HARB) in Northeast Asia has experienced distinct land surface changes during the past 40 years due to extensive ecological restoration programs, agricultural management, and grassland grazing in different ecosystems. However, the regional climate impact caused by the long-term spatially heterogeneous land surface changes in this mid-high latitude region is not well documented. Therefore, this study used multi-source satellite measurements records and a high-resolution land-atmosphere coupled regional climate model (WRF) to investigate the land surface changes and their associated thermal and moisture impacts across three main ecosystems over the Heilong-Amur River basin from 1982 to 2018. Firstly, satellite observations indicated an overall greening in HARB, with variations across ecosystems. The significant summer farmland greening is the most representative, with the farmland green vegetation fraction (GVF) remarkably increasing by 7.78% in summer. The forest greening magnitude is stronger in spring (3.42%) than in summer (2.85%), while the grassland vegetation showed some local browning signals in summer. Secondly, our simulated results showed the summer farmland greening accelerated evapotranspiration (ET) by 0.161 mm/d and significantly cools the surface temperature by 0.508 °C averaged at the ecosystem scale, which was highly correlated with the satellite observations but with lower cooling magnitude. The forest greening brought less surface cooling in spring than summer due to the stronger albedo feedback, despite with greater increase in GVF and ET. While with the opposite process, the local grassland browning leads to consistent warming effects, which can be detected from both satellite observations and our simulation results. Finally, our results also found that rainfall increasing averagely at the ecosystem scale can't fully compensate the water emission from enhanced ET due to the surface greening, contributing to soil moisture decline in both farmland and relative dry forests.

Planetary albedo decline over Northwest India contributing to near surface warming

The increase in frequency and severity of heat waves during the pre-monsoon season (March-May) over Northwest India in recent decades is alarming. This study investigates the causative mechanism for warming through the forcing induced by planetary albedo changes over Northwest India, a hotspot for land-cover change. We use satellite-measured planetary albedo (α) and satellite-derived land-use-land-cover (LULC) data to estimate the impact of LULC changes from 2001 to 2018 on α and the associated radiative forcing. Over Northwest India, significant area under native land-cover, viz., barren, shrub and grass-lands, has been converted to cropland. The associated land-cover-induced changes have perturbed the radiation-budget by modifying the absorption of shortwave radiation, thereby contributing to the pronounced reduction of α as observed over this region. The diurnal-mean α has decreased by 0.016 ± 0.001 from 2001 to 2018 during pre-monsoon season which dominates α-decrease during the annual cycle over this region and contributes to the overall decreasing trend over India. Conversion of barren and shrub-lands to cropland is observed to be the greatest contributor to the α-decrease as compared to other land-cover changes. The radiative forcing due to decline in diurnal-mean α over Northwest India from 2001 to 2018 is highest during pre-monsoon at 5.99 ± 0.34 W/m². This α-induced forcing averaged over the global land surface (0.02 W/m²) is equivalent to the corresponding direct forcing from rise in atmospheric methane concentrations during this period. We find an enhancement in near-surface heating to be associated with change in α; the decreasing trend in α during pre-monsoon has substantially enhanced near-surface extreme effective temperatures by 3.15 ± 2.61 K thus far and may further lead to more extreme heatwaves in future. Further, our findings highlight a decreasing (warming) and increasing (cooling) trend in clear-sky planetary albedo respectively over Northwest India and coastal regions, suggesting that sudden climate change could occur if one forcing dominates over the other.