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Zhang L, Zhao H, Wan N, Bai G, Kirkham MB, Nielsen-Gammon JW, Avenson TJ, Lollato R, Sharda V, Ashworth A, Gowda PH, Lin X. An unprecedented fall drought drives Dust Bowl-like losses associated with La Niña events in US wheat production. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eado6864. [PMID: 39083607 PMCID: PMC11290491 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado6864] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Accepted: 06/26/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024]
Abstract
Unprecedented precipitation deficits in the 2022-2023 growing season across the primary wheat-producing region in the United States caused delays in winter wheat emergence and poor crop growth. Using an integrated approach, we quantitatively unraveled a 37% reduction in wheat production as being attributable to both per-harvested acre yield loss and severe crop abandonment, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s. We used random forest machine learning and game theory analytics to show that the main driver of yield loss was spring drought, whereas fall drought dominated abandonment rates. Furthermore, results revealed, across the US winter wheat belt, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), increased abandonment rates compared to the El Niño phase. These findings underscore the necessity of simultaneously addressing crop abandonment and yield decline to stabilize wheat production amid extreme climatic conditions and provide a holistic understanding of global-scale ENSO dynamics on wheat production.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lina Zhang
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Haidong Zhao
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Nenghan Wan
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Guihua Bai
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Hard Winter Wheat Genetics Research Unit, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - M. B. Kirkham
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - John W. Nielsen-Gammon
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
| | | | - Romulo Lollato
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Vaishali Sharda
- Carl and Melinda Helwig Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Amanda Ashworth
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Poultry Production and Product Safety Research Unit, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA
| | - Prasanna H. Gowda
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Southeast Area, Stoneville, MS 38776, USA
| | - Xiaomao Lin
- Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
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2
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Salvador P, Pey J, Pérez N, Alastuey A, Querol X, Artíñano B. Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 922:171307. [PMID: 38428593 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/25/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024]
Abstract
Desert dust is currently recognized as a health risk factor. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is actively promoting the establishment of early warning systems for sand and dust storms. This study introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring in eight different regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In each region, a multilinear regression model was developed to calculate daily probabilities of dust events using three thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000-500 hPa layer, mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa, and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) as assessment parameters. All days with African dust transport over each study region were identified in the period 2001-2021 using a proven procedure. This information was then utilized to establish a functional relationship between the values of the thermodynamic parameters and the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring. The validation of this methodology involved comparing the daily probabilities of dust events generated by the models in 2001-2021 with the daily African dust contributions to PM10 regional background levels in each region. On average, daily dust contributions increased proportionally with the increase in daily probabilities, reaching zero for days with low probabilities. Furthermore, a well-defined seasonal evolution of probability values was observed in all regions, with the highest values in the summer months and the lowest in the winter period, ensuring the physical relevance of the models' results. Finally, upward trends were observed in all regions for the three thermodynamic parameters over 1940-2021. Thus, the probability of dust events development also increased in this period. It demonstrates that the aggravation of warm conditions in southern Europe in the last decades, have modified the frequency of North-African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro Salvador
- CIEMAT, Department of Environment - Joint Research Unit Atmospheric Pollution CIEMAT-CSIC, Av. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
| | - Jorge Pey
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE), CSIC, Av. Montañana 1005, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Noemí Pérez
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c. Jordi Girona 18, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Andrés Alastuey
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c. Jordi Girona 18, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Xavier Querol
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, c. Jordi Girona 18, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Begoña Artíñano
- CIEMAT, Department of Environment - Joint Research Unit Atmospheric Pollution CIEMAT-CSIC, Av. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain
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3
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Han L, Menzel L. Hydrological response to long-lasting dry spell at the southern edge of Siberian permafrost. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 922:171330. [PMID: 38428602 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024]
Abstract
Regions experiencing prolonged dry spell exhibit intensified land-atmosphere coupling, exacerbating dry conditions within the hydrological system. Yet, understanding the propagation of these processes within the context of permafrost degradation remains limited. Our study investigates concurrent hydro-climate variations in the semi-arid Selenga River basin in the southern edge of Siberian permafrost. Driven by the natural atmospheric circulations, this region experienced two distinct dry spells during 1954-2013. It enables comparative investigations into the role of warming-induced permafrost degradations in drought dynamics under land-atmosphere coupling. Based on a comprehensive analysis of observed borehole data from 1996 to 2009 and empirical methods, we identify widespread permafrost loss in the semi-arid Selenga region. Such large-scale landscape changes may increase the infiltration of water from the surface to the subsurface hydrological system, and significantly influence the dry conditions in landsurface. First, significant decreasing trends are observed in river runoff (-0.30mm/yr, p < 0.05) and TWS (-3.16 mm/yr, p = 0.1), despite the absence of an apparent trend in annual precipitation (0.009 mm/yr, p = 0.9). Furthermore, in comparison to the first dry spell (1974-1983, 10yrs), the hydro-climatic variables show prolonged and more severe water deficits in runoff and TWS during the second dry spell (1996-2012, 17 yrs), with a reduced runoff-generation efficiency from precipitation. Such exacerbated dry conditions are coincident with amplified positive anomalies observed in air temperature, PET, as well as low-level geopotential height. These concurrent "hot-dry" phenomena indicate an enhanced land-atmospheric interaction within the hydro-climate system, which is further evidenced by the negative relationship between permafrost thawing index and runoff deficits (regression coefficient = -3.8, p < 0.001). As climate warming continues, the ongoing permafrost degradation could reinforce water scarcity, triggering an irreversible shift in water availability in water-scarce regions. Our findings could support freshwater management for regional food supply, human health, and ecosystem functions in the regions undergoing large-scale permafrost degradation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Han
- Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg 69120, Germany; Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam 14473, Germany.
| | - Lucas Menzel
- Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg 69120, Germany
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4
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King KE, Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Harley GL, Spei B. Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadj4289. [PMID: 38266096 PMCID: PMC10807802 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adj4289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 12/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2024]
Abstract
Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen E. King
- Department of Geography and Sustainability, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 1000 Phillip Fulmer Way, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
| | - Edward R. Cook
- Tree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Kevin J. Anchukaitis
- Tree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
- School of Geography, Development, and Environment, University of Arizona, 1064 Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Benjamin I. Cook
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
- Ocean and Climate Physics Division, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Jason E. Smerdon
- Ocean and Climate Physics Division, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
- Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Richard Seager
- Ocean and Climate Physics Division, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Grant L. Harley
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS3021, Moscow, ID 83843, USA
| | - Benjamin Spei
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences, University of Idaho, 975 West 6th Street, Moscow, ID 83843, USA
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5
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Wilcox KR, Chen A, Avolio ML, Butler EE, Collins S, Fisher R, Keenan T, Kiang NY, Knapp AK, Koerner SE, Kueppers L, Liang G, Lieungh E, Loik M, Luo Y, Poulter B, Reich P, Renwick K, Smith MD, Walker A, Weng E, Komatsu KJ. Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of "grassy" ecosystems. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6453-6477. [PMID: 37814910 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin R Wilcox
- University of North Carolina Greensboro, Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
- University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | - Anping Chen
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Meghan L Avolio
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Ethan E Butler
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Scott Collins
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
| | - Rosie Fisher
- CICERO Centre for International Cimate Research, Forskningsparken, Oslo, Norway
| | - Trevor Keenan
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Nancy Y Kiang
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
| | - Alan K Knapp
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Sally E Koerner
- University of North Carolina Greensboro, Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
| | - Lara Kueppers
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Guopeng Liang
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Eva Lieungh
- Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Michael Loik
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Yiqi Luo
- School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Ben Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Lab, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Peter Reich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Melinda D Smith
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Anthony Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
| | - Ensheng Weng
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Kimberly J Komatsu
- University of North Carolina Greensboro, Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
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6
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Han J, Singh VP. A review of widely used drought indices and the challenges of drought assessment under climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1438. [PMID: 37943470 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12062-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 10/28/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Under climate change, drought assessment, which can address nonstationarity in drought indicators and anthropogenic implications, is required to mitigate drought impacts. However, the development of drought indices for a reliable drought assessment is a challenging task in the warming climate. Thus, this study discusses factors that should be considered in developing drought indices in changing climate. Inconsistent drought assessment can be obtained, depending on the baseline period defined in developing drought indices. Therefore, the baseline period should represent the contemporary climate but should also correspond to long enough observations for stable parameter estimation. The importance of accurate potential evapotranspiration (PET) for drought indices becomes higher under a warming climate. Although the Penman-Monteith method yields accurate PET values, depending on the climate and vegetation cover, other suitable PET formulas, such as the Hargreaves method, with fewer hydrometeorological data can be used. Since a single drought index is not enough to properly monitor drought evolution, a method that can objectively combine multiple drought indices is required. Besides, quantifying anthropogenic impacts, which can add more uncertainty, on drought assessment is also important to adapt to the changing drought conditions and minimize human-induced drought. Drought is expected to occur more frequently with more severe, longer, and larger areal extent under global warming, since a more arid background, which climate change will provide, intensifies land-atmosphere feedback, leading to the desiccation of land and drying atmosphere. Thus, an accurate drought assessment, based on robust drought indices, is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeongwoo Han
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA.
| | - Vijay P Singh
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA
- Zachary Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA
- National Water & Energy Center, UAE University, AL Ain, United Arab Emirates
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7
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Simpson NP, Williams PA, Mach KJ, Berrang-Ford L, Biesbroek R, Haasnoot M, Segnon AC, Campbell D, Musah-Surugu JI, Joe ET, Nunbogu AM, Sabour S, Meyer AL, Andrews TM, Singh C, Siders A, Lawrence J, van Aalst M, Trisos CH. Adaptation to compound climate risks: A systematic global stocktake. iScience 2023; 26:105926. [PMID: 36866045 PMCID: PMC9971900 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105926] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 12/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides a stocktake of the adaptation literature between 2013 and 2019 to better understand how adaptation responses affect risk under the particularly challenging conditions of compound climate events. Across 39 countries, 45 response types to compound hazards display anticipatory (9%), reactive (33%), and maladaptive (41%) characteristics, as well as hard (18%) and soft (68%) limits to adaptation. Low income, food insecurity, and access to institutional resources and finance are the most prominent of 23 vulnerabilities observed to negatively affect responses. Risk for food security, health, livelihoods, and economic outputs are commonly associated risks driving responses. Narrow geographical and sectoral foci of the literature highlight important conceptual, sectoral, and geographic areas for future research to better understand the way responses shape risk. When responses are integrated within climate risk assessment and management, there is greater potential to advance the urgency of response and safeguards for the most vulnerable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas P. Simpson
- African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa,Corresponding author
| | - Portia Adade Williams
- CSIR-Science and Technology Policy Research Institute, Accra, Ghana,Corresponding author
| | - Katharine J. Mach
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, and Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Lea Berrang-Ford
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Marjolijn Haasnoot
- Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Alcade C. Segnon
- Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Dakar, Senegal, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin
| | | | - Justice Issah Musah-Surugu
- United Nations University, Bonn, Germany,Department of Public Administration and Health Service Management, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | - Elphin Tom Joe
- Economics Center, World Resources Institute, New Delhi, India
| | - Abraham Marshall Nunbogu
- Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Salma Sabour
- Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UK
| | - Andreas L.S. Meyer
- African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Talbot M. Andrews
- Department of Political Science, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | - Chandni Singh
- School of Environment and Sustainability, Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India
| | - A.R. Siders
- Disaster Research Center, Climate Change Science and Policy Hub, Biden School of Public Policy, Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences; University of Delaware; Newark, DE, USA
| | - Judy Lawrence
- Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Maarten van Aalst
- Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Twente, the Netherlands,Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Christopher H. Trisos
- African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa,Centre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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8
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How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere. Sci Rep 2022; 12:17380. [PMID: 36253425 PMCID: PMC9576710 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-22262-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales.
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9
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Crossley MS, Latimer CE, Kennedy CM, Snyder WE. Past and recent farming degrades aquatic insect genetic diversity. Mol Ecol 2022. [PMID: 35771845 DOI: 10.1111/mec.16590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2021] [Revised: 04/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Recent declines in once-common species are triggering concern that an environmental crisis point has been reached. Yet, the lack of long abundance time series data for most species can make it difficult to attribute these changes to anthropogenic causes, and to separate them from normal cycles. Genetic diversity, on the other hand, is sensitive to past and recent environmental changes, and reflects a measure of a populations' potential to adapt to future stressors. Here, we consider whether patterns of genetic diversity among aquatic insects can be linked to historical and recent patterns of land use change. We collated mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) variation for >700 aquatic insect species across the United States, where patterns of agricultural expansion and intensification have been documented since the 1800s. We found that genetic diversity was lowest in regions where cropland was historically (pre-1950) most extensive, suggesting a legacy of past environmental harm. Genetic diversity further declined where cropland has since expanded, even after accounting for climate and sampling effects. Notably though, genetic diversity also appeared to rebound where cropland has diminished. Our study suggests that genetic diversity at the community level can be a powerful tool to infer potential population declines and rebounds over longer time spans than is typically possible with ecological data. For the aquatic insects that we considered, patterns of land use many decades ago appear to have left long-lasting damage to genetic diversity that could threaten evolutionary responses to rapid global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael S Crossley
- Department of Entomology and Wildlife Ecology, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA
| | | | - Christina M Kennedy
- Global Protect Oceans, Lands and Waters Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - William E Snyder
- Department of Entomology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
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10
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Global assessment of spatiotemporal variability of wet, normal and dry conditions using multiscale entropy-based approach. Sci Rep 2022; 12:9767. [PMID: 35697830 PMCID: PMC9192772 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-13830-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 05/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
In recent decades, human-induced climate change has caused a worldwide increase in the frequency/intensity/duration of extreme events, resulting in enormous disruptions to life and property. Hence, a comprehensive understanding of global-scale spatiotemporal trends and variability of extreme events at different intensity levels (e.g., moderate/severe/extreme) and durations (e.g., short-term/long-term) of normal, dry and wet conditions is essential in predicting/forecasting/mitigating future extreme events. This article analyses these aspects using estimates of a non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index corresponding to different accumulation periods for 0.5° resolution CRU grids at globe-scale. Results are analyzed with respect to changes in land-use/landcover and geographic/location indicators (latitude, longitude, elevation) at different time scales (decadal/annual/seasonal/monthly) for each continent. The analysis showed an (i) increasing trend in the frequency/count of both dry and wet conditions and variability of dry conditions, and (ii) contrasting (decreasing) trend in the variability of wet conditions, possibly due to climate change-induced variations in atmospheric circulations. Globally, the highest variability in the wet and dry conditions is found during the Northern hemisphere's winter season. The decadal-scale analysis showed that change in variability in dry and wet conditions has been predominant since the 1930s and 1950s, respectively and is found to be increasing in recent decades.
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11
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Savelli E, Rusca M, Cloke H, Di Baldassarre G. Drought and society: Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS. CLIMATE CHANGE 2022; 13:e761. [PMID: 35864922 PMCID: PMC9286479 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Revised: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 12/22/2021] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across the world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations of drought risk that account for human actions and their interplays with natural systems. This review focuses on physical and engineering sciences to examine the way and extent to which these disciplines account for social processes in relation to the production and distribution of drought risk. We conclude that this research has significantly progressed in terms of recognizing the role of humans in reshaping drought risk and its socioenvironmental impacts. We note an increasing engagement with and contribution to understanding vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation patterns. Moreover, by advancing (socio)hydrological models, developing numerical indexes, and enhancing data processing, physical and engineering scientists have determined the extent of human influences in the propagation of drought hazard. However, these studies do not fully capture the complexities of anthropogenic transformations. Very often, they portray society as homogeneous, and decision-making processes as apolitical, thereby concealing the power relations underlying the production of drought and the uneven distribution of its impacts. The resistance in engaging explicitly with politics and social power-despite their major role in producing anthropogenic drought-can be attributed to the strong influence of positivist epistemologies in engineering and physical sciences. We suggest that an active engagement with critical social sciences can further theorizations of drought risk by shedding light on the structural and historical systems of power that engender every socioenvironmental transformation. This article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisa Savelli
- Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape ScienceUppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden
- Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS)UppsalaSweden
| | - Maria Rusca
- School of Environment, Education and DevelopmentThe University of ManchesterManchesterUK
| | - Hannah Cloke
- Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape ScienceUppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden
- Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS)UppsalaSweden
- Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
- Department of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Giuliano Di Baldassarre
- Department of Earth Sciences, Air, Water and Landscape ScienceUppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden
- Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS)UppsalaSweden
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12
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Crausbay SD, Sofaer HR, Cravens AE, Chaffin BC, Clifford KR, Gross JE, Knapp CN, Lawrence DJ, Magness DR, Miller-Rushing AJ, Schuurman GW, Stevens-Rumann CS. A Science Agenda to Inform Natural Resource Management Decisions in an Era of Ecological Transformation. Bioscience 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelley D Crausbay
- Conservation Science Partners, Fort Collins, Colorado, and is a consortium partner for the US Geological Survey's North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | - Helen R Sofaer
- US Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, Hawai'i, United States
| | - Amanda E Cravens
- US Geological Survey's Social and Economic Analysis Branch, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | | | - Katherine R Clifford
- US Geological Survey's Social and Economic Analysis Branch, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - John E Gross
- US National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | | | - David J Lawrence
- US National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - Dawn R Magness
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Soldotna, Alaska, United States
| | | | - Gregor W Schuurman
- US National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - Camille S Stevens-Rumann
- Forest and Rangeland Stewardship Department and assistant director of the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
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13
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Saco PM, McDonough KR, Rodriguez JF, Rivera-Zayas J, Sandi SG. The role of soils in the regulation of hazards and extreme events. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021; 376:20200178. [PMID: 34365831 PMCID: PMC8349632 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The frequency and intensity of natural hazards and extreme events has increased throughout the last century, resulting in adverse socioeconomic and ecological impacts worldwide. Key factors driving this increase include climate change, the growing world population, anthropogenic activities and ecosystem degradation. One ecologically focused approach that has shown potential towards the mitigation of these hazard events is the concept of nature's contributions to people (or NCP), which focuses on enhancing the material and non-material benefits of an ecosystem to reduce hazard vulnerability and enhance overall human well-being. Soils, in particular, have been identified as a key ecosystem component that may offer critical hazard regulating functionality. Thus, this review investigates the modulating role of soils in the regulation of natural hazards and extreme events, with a focus on floods, droughts, landslides and sand/dust storms, within the context of NCP. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People'.
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Affiliation(s)
- P. M. Saco
- Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability (CWSES) and School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales 2308, Australia
| | - K. R. McDonough
- Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability (CWSES) and School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales 2308, Australia
| | - J. F. Rodriguez
- Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability (CWSES) and School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales 2308, Australia
| | - J. Rivera-Zayas
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
| | - S. G. Sandi
- Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability (CWSES) and School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales 2308, Australia
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14
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Numerical Simulation of Tehran Dust Storm on 2 June 2014: A Case Study of Agricultural Abandoned Lands as Emission Sources. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12081054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
On 2 June 2014, at about 13 UTC, a dust storm arrived in Tehran as a severe hazard that caused injures, deaths, failures in power supply, and traffic disruption. Such an extreme event is not considered as common for the Tehran area, which has raised the question of the dust storm’s origin and the need for increasing citizens’ preparedness during such events. The analysis of the observational data and numerical simulations using coupled dust-atmospheric models showed that intensive convective activity occurred over the south and southwest of Tehran, which produced cold downdrafts and, consequently, high-velocity surface winds. Different dust source masks were used as an input for model hindcasts of the event (forecasts of the past event) to show the capability of the numerical models to perform high-quality forecasts in such events and to expand the knowledge on the storm’s formation and progression. In addition to the proven capability of the models, if engaged in operational use to contribute to the establishment of an early warning system for dust storms, another conclusion appeared as a highlight of this research: abandoned agricultural areas south of Tehran were responsible for over 50% of the airborne dust concentration within the dust storm that surged through Tehran. Such a dust source in the numerical simulation produced a PM10 surface dust concentration of several thousand μm/m3, which classifies it as a dust source hot-spot. The produced evidence indivisibly links issues of land degradation, extreme weather, environmental protection, and health and safety.
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15
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Cao Z, Gao F, Li S, Wu Z, Guan W, Ho HC. Ridership exceedance exposure risk: Novel indicators to assess PM 2.5 health exposure of bike sharing riders. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 197:111020. [PMID: 33726994 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Revised: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/11/2021] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Identifying the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure risk for bicycle riders is crucial for promoting the development of theory and technology in transportation-related air pollution assessment as well as urban health planning. Previous studies have employed daily mean PM2.5 concentrations and designed routes to evaluate air pollution exposure risk. However, because the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations cannot fully illustrate the intra-day variations in PM2.5, which are typically higher than daily mean values, the adverse effects of PM2.5 concentrations remain underestimated. Moreover, the quantity and representativeness of monitoring samples make large spatial-scale and multi-temporal-scale analysis challenging. By defining hourly exceedance PM2.5 concentration and sharing bicycle rider data, two novel indicators were proposed in our study: exceedance exposure risk of PM2.5 for sharing bicycle riders (EPSR) and accumulative exceedance exposure risk of PM2.5 for sharing bicycle riders (AEPSR). Standard deviation ellipse analysis was conducted to investigate the multi-temporal variation of ESPR and AEPSR. A geographically weighted regression model was applied to quantify the relationship between city function zones and exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk for sharing bicycle riders. Results revealed that the mean values of EPSR and AEPSR during morning peak periods ranged between 0.109 min μg/m3 and 1.27 min μg/m3 and 6.83 min μg/m3 and 43.41 min μg/m3, respectively, whereas the mean values of EPSR and AEPSR during evening peak periods ranged between 0.19 min μg/m3 and 4.28 min μg/m3 and 14.67 min μg/m3 and 357.66 min μg/m3, respectively. This implied that sharing bicycle riders were exposed to higher PM2.5-related risks during the evening than in the morning. When considering the accumulative effects, the average centers of the AEPSR moved to the north side as compared to the average centers of the EPSR. Expanding areas of EPSR shrunk by 20.25 km2. This indicated that accumulative effects aggregated spatial clusters of exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk for sharing bicycle riders more tightly to the north of the study areas. Spatiotemporal variation of EPSR and AEPSR led us to investigate the mechanism behind this phenomenon. Spatial associations between city function zones and EPSR and AEPSR showed that sharing bicycle riders experienced more severe exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk around financial/corporations and leisure service areas, with R2 values of 0.33 and 0.35, respectively. This spatial association tended to be more significant during the evening peak periods. By developing two novel indicators, the increasing health threats for bicycle riders caused by exceedance PM2.5 were investigated in this study. The mechanism results should be included for developing mitigation strategies to alleviate the adverse effects of air pollution for public rider participators and achieving the goal of eco-health cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheng Cao
- School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Guangdong Province Engineering Technology Research Center for Geographical Conditions Monitoring and Comprehensive Analysis, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, 511458, China
| | - Feng Gao
- School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Guangdong Province Engineering Technology Research Center for Geographical Conditions Monitoring and Comprehensive Analysis, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510030, China; Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China
| | - Shaoying Li
- School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Guangdong Province Engineering Technology Research Center for Geographical Conditions Monitoring and Comprehensive Analysis, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, 511458, China.
| | - Zhifeng Wu
- School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Guangdong Province Engineering Technology Research Center for Geographical Conditions Monitoring and Comprehensive Analysis, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, 511458, China
| | - Wenchuan Guan
- School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Guangdong Province Engineering Technology Research Center for Geographical Conditions Monitoring and Comprehensive Analysis, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Hung Chak Ho
- School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, China
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16
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Corral AF, Braun RA, Cairns B, Gorooh VA, Liu H, Ma L, Mardi AH, Painemal D, Stamnes S, van Diedenhoven B, Wang H, Yang Y, Zhang B, Sorooshian A. An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast - Part 1: Analysis of Aerosols, Gases, and Wet Deposition Chemistry. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2021; 126:e2020JD032592. [PMID: 34211820 PMCID: PMC8243758 DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2020] [Accepted: 11/04/2020] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species from many sources regionally and other continents. As Part 1 of a 2-part paper series, this work characterizes quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, by analyzing available satellite observations, ground-based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Part 2 provides insight into the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, properties, and precipitation over the WNAO domain. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways toward the accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of different sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport. Analysis of long-term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea F Corral
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Rachel A Braun
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Brian Cairns
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Vesta Afzali Gorooh
- Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Hongyu Liu
- National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA
| | - Lin Ma
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Ali Hossein Mardi
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - David Painemal
- NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton, VA, USA
| | | | - Bastiaan van Diedenhoven
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
- Columbia University Center for Climate System Research, New York, NY, USA
| | - Hailong Wang
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Yang Yang
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Bo Zhang
- National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA
| | - Armin Sorooshian
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
- Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
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17
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Lenton TM, Kohler TA, Marquet PA, Boyle RA, Crucifix M, Wilkinson DM, Scheffer M. Survival of the Systems. Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 36:333-344. [PMID: 33414020 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2020] [Revised: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 12/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Since Darwin, individuals and more recently genes, have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on nonreproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies, has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration of their evolution. Self-perpetuating feedback cycles involving biotic as well as abiotic components are critical to determining persistence. Evolution of autocatalytic networks of molecules is well studied, but the principles hold for any 'self-perpetuating' system. Ecosystem examples include coral reefs, rainforests, and savannahs. Societal examples include agricultural systems, dominant belief systems, and economies. Persistence-based selection of feedbacks can help us understand how ecological and societal systems survive or fail in a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy M Lenton
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.
| | - Timothy A Kohler
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4910, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA; Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321, USA
| | - Pablo A Marquet
- Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA; Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Centro de Cambio Global UC, Laboratorio Internacional de Cambio Global (LINCGlobal), Santiago, Chile
| | - Richard A Boyle
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Michel Crucifix
- Université Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - David M Wilkinson
- School of Life Sciences, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, LN6 7DL, UK; Classics and Archaeology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
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18
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Crossley MS, Burke KD, Schoville SD, Radeloff VC. Recent collapse of crop belts and declining diversity of US agriculture since 1840. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:151-164. [PMID: 33064906 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2020] [Revised: 09/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Over the last century, US agriculture greatly intensified and became industrialized, increasing in inputs and yields while decreasing in total cropland area. In the industrial sector, spatial agglomeration effects are typical, but such changes in the patterns of crop types and diversity would have major implications for the resilience of food systems to global change. Here, we investigate the extent to which agricultural industrialization in the United States was accompanied by agglomeration of crop types, not just overall cropland area, as well as declines in crop diversity. Based on county-level analyses of individual crop land cover area in the conterminous United States from 1840 to 2017, we found a strong and abrupt spatial concentration of most crop types in very recent years. For 13 of the 18 major crops, the widespread belts that characterized early 20th century US agriculture have collapsed, with spatial concentration increasing 15-fold after 2002. The number of counties producing each crop declined from 1940 to 2017 by up to 97%, and their total area declined by up to 98%, despite increasing total production. Concomitantly, the diversity of crop types within counties plummeted: in 1940, 88% of counties grew >10 crops, but only 2% did so in 2017, and combinations of crop types that once characterized entire agricultural regions are lost. Importantly, declining crop diversity with increasing cropland area is a recent phenomenon, suggesting that corresponding environmental effects in agriculturally dominated counties have fundamentally changed. For example, the spatial concentration of agriculture has important consequences for the spread of crop pests, agrochemical use, and climate change. Ultimately, the recent collapse of most agricultural belts and the loss of crop diversity suggest greater vulnerability of US food systems to environmental and economic change, but the spatial concentration of agriculture may also offer environmental benefits in areas that are no longer farmed.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kevin D Burke
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Sean D Schoville
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
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19
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Alizadeh MR, Adamowski J, Nikoo MR, AghaKouchak A, Dennison P, Sadegh M. A century of observations reveals increasing likelihood of continental-scale compound dry-hot extremes. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2020; 6:6/39/eaaz4571. [PMID: 32967839 PMCID: PMC7531886 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz4571] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2019] [Accepted: 08/03/2020] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Using over a century of ground-based observations over the contiguous United States, we show that the frequency of compound dry and hot extremes has increased substantially in the past decades, with an alarming increase in very rare dry-hot extremes. Our results indicate that the area affected by concurrent extremes has also increased significantly. Further, we explore homogeneity (i.e., connectedness) of dry-hot extremes across space. We show that dry-hot extremes have homogeneously enlarged over the past 122 years, pointing to spatial propagation of extreme dryness and heat and increased probability of continental-scale compound extremes. Last, we show an interesting shift between the main driver of dry-hot extremes over time. While meteorological drought was the main driver of dry-hot events in the 1930s, the observed warming trend has become the dominant driver in recent decades. Our results provide a deeper understanding of spatiotemporal variation of compound dry-hot extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Reza Alizadeh
- Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Jan Adamowski
- Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Mohammad Reza Nikoo
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz 7134851156, Iran
| | - Amir AghaKouchak
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, 4130 Engineering Gateway, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3200 Croul Hall Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Philip Dennison
- Department of Geography, University of Utah, 260 S Central Campus Dr, Rm 4625, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
| | - Mojtaba Sadegh
- Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-2060, USA.
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20
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Resolving the Dust Bowl paradox of grassland responses to extreme drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:22249-22255. [PMID: 32839346 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922030117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
During the 1930s Dust Bowl drought in the central United States, species with the C3 photosynthetic pathway expanded throughout C4-dominated grasslands. This widespread increase in C3 grasses during a decade of low rainfall and high temperatures is inconsistent with well-known traits of C3 vs. C4 pathways. Indeed, water use efficiency is generally lower, and photosynthesis is more sensitive to high temperatures in C3 than C4 species, consistent with the predominant distribution of C3 grasslands in cooler environments and at higher latitudes globally. We experimentally imposed extreme drought for 4 y in mixed C3/C4 grasslands in Kansas and Wyoming and, similar to Dust Bowl observations, also documented three- to fivefold increases in C3/C4 biomass ratios. To explain these paradoxical responses, we first analyzed long-term climate records to show that under nominal conditions in the central United States, C4 grasses dominate where precipitation and air temperature are strongly related (warmest months are wettest months). In contrast, C3 grasses flourish where precipitation inputs are less strongly coupled to warm temperatures. We then show that during extreme drought years, precipitation-temperature relationships weaken, and the proportion of precipitation falling during cooler months increases. This shift in precipitation seasonality provides a mechanism for C3 grasses to respond positively to multiyear drought, resolving the Dust Bowl paradox. Grasslands are globally important biomes and increasingly vulnerable to direct effects of climate extremes. Our findings highlight how extreme drought can indirectly alter precipitation seasonality and shift ecosystem phenology, affecting function in ways not predictable from key traits of C3 and C4 species.
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21
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Das J, Gayen A, Saha P, Bhattacharya SK. Meteorological drought analysis using Standardized Precipitation Index over Luni River Basin in Rajasthan, India. SN APPLIED SCIENCES 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s42452-020-03321-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022] Open
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22
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Soil as an extended composite phenotype of the microbial metagenome. Sci Rep 2020; 10:10649. [PMID: 32606383 PMCID: PMC7327058 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67631-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 06/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
We use a unique set of terrestrial experiments to demonstrate how soil management practises result in emergence of distinct associations between physical structure and biological functions. These associations have a significant effect on the flux, resilience and efficiency of nutrient delivery to plants (including water). Physical structure, determining the air–water balance in soil as well as transport rates, is influenced by nutrient and physical interventions. Contrasting emergent soil structures exert selective pressures upon the microbiome metagenome. These selective pressures are associated with the quality of organic carbon inputs, the prevalence of anaerobic microsites and delivery of nutrients to microorganisms attached to soil surfaces. This variety results in distinctive gene assemblages characterising each state. The nature of the interactions provide evidence that soil behaves as an extended composite phenotype of the resident microbiome, responsive to the input and turnover of plant-derived organic carbon. We provide new evidence supporting the theory that soil-microbe systems are self-organising states with organic carbon acting as a critical determining parameter. This perspective leads us to propose carbon flux, rather than soil organic carbon content as the critical factor in soil systems, and we present evidence to support this view.
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23
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Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2870. [PMID: 32513943 PMCID: PMC7280240 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16676-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2019] [Accepted: 05/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. In the 1930s, the US was hit by a severe drought and record-breaking heatwaves in a period known as the Dust Bowl. Here, the authors present model experiments that suggest that warm North Atlantic temperatures and human devegetation played key roles in making these heatwaves particularly strong.
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24
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Munteanu C, Kamp J, Nita MD, Klein N, Kraemer BM, Müller D, Koshkina A, Prishchepov AV, Kuemmerle T. Cold War spy satellite images reveal long-term declines of a philopatric keystone species in response to cropland expansion. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20192897. [PMID: 32429811 PMCID: PMC7287353 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.2897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Agricultural expansion drives biodiversity loss globally, but impact assessments are biased towards recent time periods. This can lead to a gross underestimation of species declines in response to habitat loss, especially when species declines are gradual and occur over long time periods. Using Cold War spy satellite images (Corona), we show that a grassland keystone species, the bobak marmot (Marmota bobak), continues to respond to agricultural expansion that happened more than 50 years ago. Although burrow densities of the bobak marmot today are highest in croplands, densities declined most strongly in areas that were persistently used as croplands since the 1960s. This response to historical agricultural conversion spans roughly eight marmot generations and suggests the longest recorded response of a mammal species to agricultural expansion. We also found evidence for remarkable philopatry: nearly half of all burrows retained their exact location since the 1960s, and this was most pronounced in grasslands. Our results stress the need for farsighted decisions, because contemporary land management will affect biodiversity decades into the future. Finally, our work pioneers the use of Corona historical Cold War spy satellite imagery for ecology. This vastly underused global remote sensing resource provides a unique opportunity to expand the time horizon of broad-scale ecological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catalina Munteanu
- Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.,Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor Lieser Straße 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany.,Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, Transylvania University of Brasov, 1 Sirul Beethoven, Brasov, Romania
| | - Johannes Kamp
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, University of Münster, Heisenbergstrasse 2, 48149 Münster, Germany
| | - Mihai Daniel Nita
- Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, Transylvania University of Brasov, 1 Sirul Beethoven, Brasov, Romania
| | - Nadja Klein
- Department of Statistics, Humboldt University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Benjamin M Kraemer
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
| | - Daniel Müller
- Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.,Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.,Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor Lieser Straße 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Alyona Koshkina
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, University of Münster, Heisenbergstrasse 2, 48149 Münster, Germany.,Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan (ACBK), 18 Beibitshilik Street, Office 406, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
| | - Alexander V Prishchepov
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management (IGN), University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 København K, Denmark.,Institute of Steppe of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Pionerskaya Street 11, Orenburg 460000, Russia
| | - Tobias Kuemmerle
- Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.,Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
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25
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Lynch KM, Lyles RH, Waller LA, Abadi AM, Bell JE, Gribble MO. Drought severity and all-cause mortality rates among adults in the United States: 1968-2014. Environ Health 2020; 19:52. [PMID: 32423443 PMCID: PMC7236144 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-020-00597-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2019] [Accepted: 04/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Little is known about the effect of drought on all-cause mortality, especially in higher income countries such as the United States. As the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase, understanding the connections between drought and mortality becomes increasingly important. METHODS Our exposure variable was an annual cumulative drought severity score based on the 1-month, county-level Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. The outcome variables of demographic subgroup-specific all-cause mortality count data per year were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Any counts below 10 deaths were censored in that demographic group per county. We modeled county-stratum-year mortality using interval-censored negative binomial regression with county-level random intercepts, for each combined age-race-sex stratum either with or without further stratification by climate regions. Fixed effects meta-regression was used to test the associations between age, race, sex, and region with the drought-mortality regression coefficients. Predictive margins were then calculated from the meta-regression model to estimate larger subgroup (e.g., 'race' or 'sex') associations of drought with mortality. RESULTS Most of the results were null for associations between drought severity and mortality, across joint strata of race, age, sex and region, but incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 17 subgroups were significant after accounting for the multiple testing; ten were < 1 indicating a possible protective effect of drought on mortality for that particular subpopulation. The meta-regression indicated heterogeneity in the association of drought with mortality according to race, climate region, and age, but not by sex. Marginal means of the estimated log-incidence rate ratios differed significantly from zero for age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64; for the white race group; and for the South, West and Southwest regions, in the analysis that included wet county-years. The margin of the meta-regression model suggested a slightly negative, but not statistically significant, association of drought with same-year mortality in the overall population. CONCLUSIONS There were significant, heterogeneous-direction associations in subpopulation-stratified models, after controlling for multiple comparisons, suggesting that the impacts of drought on mortality may not be monolithic across the United States. Meta-regression identified systematic differences in the associations of drought severity with all-cause mortality according to climate region, race, and age. These findings suggest there may be important contextual differences in the effects of drought severity on mortality, motivating further work focused on local mechanisms. We speculate that some of the estimated negative associations of drought severity with same-year mortality could be consistent with either a protective effect of drought on total mortality in the same year, or with a delayed health effect of drought beyond the same year. Further research is needed to clarify associations of drought with more specific causes of death and with sublethal health outcomes, for specific subpopulations, and considering lagged effects occurring beyond the same year as the drought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie M Lynch
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Robert H Lyles
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lance A Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Azar M Abadi
- Department of Environmental, Agricultural, and Occupational Health, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE, USA
| | - Jesse E Bell
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Department of Environmental, Agricultural, and Occupational Health, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE, USA
| | - Matthew O Gribble
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA.
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26
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Heslin A, Puma MJ, Marchand P, Carr JA, Dell'Angelo J, D'Odorico P, Gephart JA, Kummu M, Porkka M, Rulli MC, Seekell DA, Suweis S, Tavoni A. Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event. FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2020.00026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Abstract
The regions of the world where average precipitation is between one fifth and half of the potential plant water demand are termed ‘semi-arid’. They make up 15.2% of the global land surface, and the approximately 1.1 billion people who live there are among the world’s poorest. The inter-annual variability of rainfall in semi-arid regions is exceptionally high, due to intrinsic features of the global atmospheric circulation. The observed and projected climate trends for most semi-arid regions indicate warming at rates above the global mean rate over land, increasing evaporative demand, and reduced and more variable rainfall. Historically, the ecosystems and people coped with the challenges of semi-arid climates using a range of strategies that are now less viable. Semi-arid ecosystems are by definition water limited, generally only suitable for extensive pastoralism and opportunistic cropping, unless irrigation supplementation is available. The characteristics of dryland plant production in semi-arid ecosystems, as they interact with climate change and human systems, provide a conceptual framework for why land degradation is so conspicuous in semi-arid regions. The coupled social-ecological failures are contagious, both within the landscape and at regional and global scales. Thus, semi-arid lands are a likely flashpoint for Earth system changes in the 21st century.
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28
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Bhattachan A, Okin GS, Zhang J, Vimal S, Lettenmaier DP. Characterizing the Role of Wind and Dust in Traffic Accidents in California. GEOHEALTH 2019; 3:328-336. [PMID: 32159022 PMCID: PMC7007095 DOI: 10.1029/2019gh000212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Revised: 09/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Wind is a common ground transportation hazard. In arid regions, wind-blown dust is an added risk. Here, we analyzed the relationship between accidents and wind speed, dust events to study how they may have contributed to vehicular accidents in California. The California Highway Patrol reports information about weather conditions that potentially contributed to traffic accidents, including a code for wind but not for reduced visibility due to dust. For the three counties that contain the major dust source regions in California (the Mojave Desert and the Imperial Valley), we found greater daily maximum wind speed for days with accidents coded for wind compared to all days with accidents. The percentage of people injured in accidents attributed for weather other than wind and coded for wind were the same; however, the percentage of people who died in wind-related accidents was about double the deaths in accidents caused by weather other than wind. At ground meteorological stations closest to accidents, we found lower median minimum visibility for days with wind-related accidents compared to all days with accidents. Across the region, wind speed recorded at ground meteorological stations increased the probability of high satellite-derived dust optical depth values. Over the period of 2006 to 2016, the correlation between daily minimum visibility and daily maximum satellite-estimated dust optical depth was negative. Our analysis of the correlation between dust and accidents shows that with increased wind storm and dust-event frequency in the future, the risk of traffic incidents due to wind and dust could increase.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Gregory S. Okin
- Department of GeographyUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA
| | - Junzhe Zhang
- Department of GeographyUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA
| | - Solomon Vimal
- Department of GeographyUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA
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29
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Querol X, Tobías A, Pérez N, Karanasiou A, Amato F, Stafoggia M, Pérez García-Pando C, Ginoux P, Forastiere F, Gumy S, Mudu P, Alastuey A. Monitoring the impact of desert dust outbreaks for air quality for health studies. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2019; 130:104867. [PMID: 31207476 PMCID: PMC6686079 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2019] [Revised: 05/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/23/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
We review the major features of desert dust outbreaks that are relevant to the assessment of dust impacts upon human health. Our ultimate goal is to provide scientific guidance for the acquisition of relevant population exposure information for epidemiological studies tackling the short and long term health effects of desert dust. We first describe the source regions and the typical levels of dust particles in regions close and far away from the source areas, along with their size, composition, and bio-aerosol load. We then describe the processes by which dust may become mixed with anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) and/or alter its load in receptor areas. Short term health effects are found during desert dust episodes in different regions of the world, but in a number of cases the results differ when it comes to associate the effects to the bulk PM, the desert dust-PM, or non-desert dust-PM. These differences are likely due to the different monitoring strategies applied in the epidemiological studies, and to the differences on atmospheric and emission (natural and anthropogenic) patterns of desert dust around the world. We finally propose methods to allow the discrimination of health effects by PM fraction during dust outbreaks, and a strategy to implement desert dust alert and monitoring systems for health studies and air quality management.
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Affiliation(s)
- X Querol
- Institute of Environmental Assessment & Water Research, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - A Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment & Water Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - N Pérez
- Institute of Environmental Assessment & Water Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - A Karanasiou
- Institute of Environmental Assessment & Water Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - F Amato
- Institute of Environmental Assessment & Water Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - M Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - P Ginoux
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, USA
| | - F Forastiere
- Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - S Gumy
- Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - P Mudu
- Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - A Alastuey
- Institute of Environmental Assessment & Water Research, Barcelona, Spain
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30
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Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:15580-15589. [PMID: 31308227 PMCID: PMC6681765 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1902046116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
An important new hypothesis in landscape ecology is that extreme, decade-scale megadroughts can be potent drivers of rapid, macroscale ecosystem degradation and collapse. If true, an increase in such events under climate change could have devastating consequences for global biodiversity. However, because few megadroughts have occurred in the modern ecological era, the taxonomic breadth, trophic depth, and geographic pattern of these impacts remain unknown. Here we use ecohistorical techniques to quantify the impact of a record, pancontinental megadrought period (1891 to 1903 CE) on the Australian biota. We show that during this event mortality and severe stress was recorded in >45 bird, mammal, fish, reptile, and plant families in arid, semiarid, dry temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems over at least 2.8 million km2 (36%) of the Australian continent. Trophic analysis reveals a bottom-up pattern of mortality concentrated in primary producer, herbivore, and omnivore guilds. Spatial and temporal reconstruction of premortality rainfall shows that mass mortality and synchronous ecosystem-wide collapse emerged in multiple geographic hotspots after 2 to 4 y of severe (>40%) and intensifying rainfall deficits. However, the presence of hyperabundant herbivores significantly increased the sensitivity of ecosystems to overgrazing-induced meltdown and permanent ecosystem change. The unprecedented taxonomic breadth and spatial scale of these impacts demonstrate that continental-scale megadroughts pose a major future threat to global biodiversity, especially in ecosystems affected by intensive agricultural use, trophic simplification, and invasive species.
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31
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Anderegg WRL, Trugman AT, Bowling DR, Salvucci G, Tuttle SE. Plant functional traits and climate influence drought intensification and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:14071-14076. [PMID: 31235581 PMCID: PMC6628816 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1904747116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The fluxes of energy, water, and carbon from terrestrial ecosystems influence the atmosphere. Land-atmosphere feedbacks can intensify extreme climate events like severe droughts and heatwaves because low soil moisture decreases both evaporation and plant transpiration and increases local temperature. Here, we combine data from a network of temperate and boreal eddy covariance towers, satellite data, plant trait datasets, and a mechanistic vegetation model to diagnose the controls of soil moisture feedbacks to drought. We find that climate and plant functional traits, particularly those related to maximum leaf gas exchange rate and water transport through the plant hydraulic continuum, jointly affect drought intensification. Our results reveal that plant physiological traits directly affect drought intensification and indicate that inclusion of plant hydraulic transport mechanisms in models may be critical for accurately simulating land-atmosphere feedbacks and climate extremes under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anna T Trugman
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112
| | - David R Bowling
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112
| | - Guido Salvucci
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215
| | - Samuel E Tuttle
- Department of Geology and Geography, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, MA 01075
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32
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Spinoni J, Barbosa P, De Jager A, McCormick N, Naumann G, Vogt JV, Magni D, Masante D, Mazzeschi M. A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY. REGIONAL STUDIES 2019. [PMID: 32257820 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
STUDY REGION This study has three spatial scales: global (0.5°), macro-regional, and country scale. The database of drought events has specific entries for each macro-region and country. STUDY FOCUS We constructed a database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016, now hosted by the Global Drought Observatory of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. Events were detected at macro-regional and country scale based on the separate analysis of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at different accumulation scales (from 3 to 72 months), using as input the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time Series datasets. The database includes approximately 4800 events based on SPEI-3 and 4500 based on SPI-3. Each event is described by its start and end date, duration, intensity, severity, peak, average and maximum area in drought, and a special score to classify 52 mega-droughts. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION UNDER STUDY We derived trends in drought frequency and severity, separately for SPI and SPEI at a 12-month accumulation scale, which is usually related to hydrological droughts. Results show several drought hotspots in the last decades: Amazonia, southern South America, the Mediterranean region, most of Africa, north-eastern China and, to a lesser extent, central Asia and southern Australia. Over North America, central Europe, central Asia, and Australia, the recent progressive temperature increase outbalanced the increase in precipitation causing more frequent and severe droughts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paulo Barbosa
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Alfred De Jager
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Niall McCormick
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Gustavo Naumann
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Jürgen V Vogt
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
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33
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Spinoni J, Barbosa P, De Jager A, McCormick N, Naumann G, Vogt JV, Magni D, Masante D, Mazzeschi M. A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY. REGIONAL STUDIES 2019; 22:100593. [PMID: 32257820 PMCID: PMC7099764 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2018] [Revised: 01/25/2019] [Accepted: 01/25/2019] [Indexed: 04/29/2023]
Abstract
STUDY REGION This study has three spatial scales: global (0.5°), macro-regional, and country scale. The database of drought events has specific entries for each macro-region and country. STUDY FOCUS We constructed a database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016, now hosted by the Global Drought Observatory of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. Events were detected at macro-regional and country scale based on the separate analysis of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at different accumulation scales (from 3 to 72 months), using as input the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time Series datasets. The database includes approximately 4800 events based on SPEI-3 and 4500 based on SPI-3. Each event is described by its start and end date, duration, intensity, severity, peak, average and maximum area in drought, and a special score to classify 52 mega-droughts. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION UNDER STUDY We derived trends in drought frequency and severity, separately for SPI and SPEI at a 12-month accumulation scale, which is usually related to hydrological droughts. Results show several drought hotspots in the last decades: Amazonia, southern South America, the Mediterranean region, most of Africa, north-eastern China and, to a lesser extent, central Asia and southern Australia. Over North America, central Europe, central Asia, and Australia, the recent progressive temperature increase outbalanced the increase in precipitation causing more frequent and severe droughts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paulo Barbosa
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Alfred De Jager
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Niall McCormick
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Gustavo Naumann
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Jürgen V. Vogt
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
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34
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Buckland CE, Bailey RM, Thomas DSG. Using artificial neural networks to predict future dryland responses to human and climate disturbances. Sci Rep 2019; 9:3855. [PMID: 30846833 PMCID: PMC6405911 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-40429-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2018] [Accepted: 02/11/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Land degradation and sediment remobilisation in dryland environments is considered to be a significant global environmental problem. Given the potential for currently stabilised dune systems to reactivate under climate change and increased anthropogenic pressures, identifying the role of external disturbances in driving geomorphic response is vitally important. We developed a novel approach, using artificial neural networks (ANNs) applied to time series of historical reactivation-deposition events from the Nebraska Sandhills, to determine the relationship between historic periods of sand deposition in semi-arid grasslands and external climatic conditions, land use pressures and wildfire occurrence. We show that both vegetation growth and sediment re-deposition episodes can be accurately estimated. Sensitivity testing of individual factors shows that localised forcings (overgrazing and wildfire) have a statistically significant impact when the climate is held at present-day conditions. However, the dominant effect is climate-induced drought. Our approach has great potential for estimating future landscape sensitivity to climate and land use scenarios across a wide range of potentially fragile dryland environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- C E Buckland
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.
| | - R M Bailey
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| | - D S G Thomas
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.,Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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35
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Benjamin SG, Brown JM, Brunet G, Lynch P, Saito K, Schlatter TW. 100 Years of Progress in Forecasting and NWP Applications. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019. [DOI: 10.1175/amsmonographs-d-18-0020.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting, starting in 1919 [when the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded], over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and Earth-system prediction challenge. AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stanley G. Benjamin
- NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado
| | - John M. Brown
- NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado
| | - Gilbert Brunet
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Kazuo Saito
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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36
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Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos10010007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The variability and mechanisms of multi-decadal megadroughts over eastern China during the last millennium were investigated using a control, full-forcing, and four sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) archive. The model simulated megadroughts have comparable magnitudes and durations with those derived from reconstructed proxy data, although the megadroughts are not temporally synchronous. In all experiments, the megadroughts exhibit similar spatial structures, corresponding to a weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) and a strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM). The results show that internal climate variability within the coupled climate system plays an essential role in triggering megadroughts, while different external forcings may contribute to persistence and modify the anomaly patterns of megadroughts. A pattern of meridional tripolar (warm-cold-warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western Pacific stretching from the equator to high latitude is responsible for the EASM weakening and EAWM strengthening. The weakening of the EASM and strengthening of the EAWM are essentially caused by negative SST anomalies over the northwestern Pacific and positive SST anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific, which are associated with a La Niña-like SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. The external forcings prolong the megadroughts through maintenance of the meridional tripolar SST anomalies and enlarge the megadrought spatial extent by magnifying the meridional tripolar SST anomalies.
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37
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Changing Climatic Averages and Variance: Implications for Mesophication at the Eastern Edge of North America’s Eastern Deciduous Forest. FORESTS 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/f9100605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Observed conversion of xerophytic warm genera species to mesophytic cool genera species in North America’s Eastern Deciduous Forest (EDF) suggests species composition is in disequilibrium with recent climatic warming. However, increasing annual average temperatures is an oversimplification of long-term climatic change and the importance of climate variance is often neglected. Seven-year moving averages and standard deviations of annually averaged maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in West Virginia, USA were quantified over a 111-year period of record (1906–2016). Maximum temperatures decreased significantly (−5.3%; p < 0.001), minimum temperatures increased significantly (7.7%; p < 0.001), and precipitation increased (2.2%; p = 0.107). Additionally, maximum temperature variance decreased (−17.4%; p = 0.109), minimum temperature variance decreased significantly (−22.6%; p = 0.042), and precipitation variance increased significantly (26.6%; p = 0.004). Results indicate a reduced diurnal temperature range and significant reductions in estimated VPD (10.3%; p < 0.001) that imply increased relative humidity, cloud cover, and soil moisture that may support increasingly abundant mesophytic cool genera species. Feedback mechanisms associated with extensive changes in land use, fire suppression, and browser population may have exacerbated climatic changes. Long-term assessments of changing climatic averages and variance are needed to ensure sustainability of forest ecosystem services, health, and productivity in a swiftly changing climate across the broader EDF region and similar temperate forest ecosystems globally.
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Hegerl GC, Brönnimann S, Schurer A, Cowan T. The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS. CLIMATE CHANGE 2018; 9:e522. [PMID: 30008810 PMCID: PMC6033150 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2017] [Revised: 03/19/2018] [Accepted: 03/20/2018] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The most pronounced warming in the historical global climate record prior to the recent warming occurred over the first half of the 20th century and is known as the Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW). Understanding this period and the subsequent slowdown of warming is key to disentangling the relationship between decadal variability and the response to human influences in the present and future climate. This review discusses the observed changes during the ETCW and hypotheses for the underlying causes and mechanisms. Attribution studies estimate that about a half (40-54%; p > .8) of the global warming from 1901 to 1950 was forced by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and natural forcing, offset to some extent by aerosols. Natural variability also made a large contribution, particularly to regional anomalies like the Arctic warming in the 1920s and 1930s. The ETCW period also encompassed exceptional events, several of which are touched upon: Indian monsoon failures during the turn of the century, the "Dust Bowl" droughts and extreme heat waves in North America in the 1930s, the World War II period drought in Australia between 1937 and 1945; and the European droughts and heat waves of the late 1940s and early 1950s. Understanding the mechanisms involved in these events, and their links to large scale forcing is an important test for our understanding of modern climate change and for predicting impacts of future change. This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Stefan Brönnimann
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
- Institute of GeographyUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | | | - Tim Cowan
- School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
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Local and regional stressors interact to drive a salinization-induced outbreak of predators on oyster reefs. Ecosphere 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
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Uludere Aragon N, Wagner M, Wang M, Broadbent AM, Parker N, Georgescu M. Sustainable Land Management for Bioenergy Crops. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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McDermid SS, Mearns LO, Ruane AC. Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: approaches and priorities for development. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 2017; 9:2230-2265. [PMID: 30574266 PMCID: PMC6298791 DOI: 10.1002/2016ms000749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Earth System Model (ESM) advances now enable improved representations of spatially and temporally varying anthropogenic climate forcings. One critical forcing is global agriculture, which is now extensive in land-use and intensive in management, owing to 20th century development trends. Agriculture and food systems now contribute nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and require copious inputs and resources, such as fertilizer, water, and land. Much uncertainty remains in quantifying important agriculture-climate interactions, including surface moisture and energy balances and biogeochemical cycling. Despite these externalities and uncertainties, agriculture is increasingly being leveraged to function as a net sink of anthropogenic carbon, and there is much emphasis on future sustainable intensification. Given its significance as a major environmental and climate forcing, there now exist a variety of approaches to represent agriculture in ESMs. These approaches are reviewed herein, and range from idealized representations of agricultural extent to the development of coupled climate-crop models that capture dynamic feedbacks. We highlight the robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses identified by these modeling efforts, as well as existing uncertainties and model limitations. To this end, coordinated and benchmarking assessments of land-use-climate feedbacks can be leveraged for further improvements in ESM's agricultural representations. We suggest key areas for continued model development, including incorporating irrigation and biogeochemical cycling in particular. Lastly, we pose several critical research questions to guide future work. Our review focuses on ESM representations of climate-surface interactions over managed agricultural lands, rather than on ESMs as an estimation tool for crop yields and productivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- S S McDermid
- Dept. of Environmental Studies, New York University, New York, NY, USA
| | - L O Mearns
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - A C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
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Abstract
Atmospheric dust constitutes particles <100 μm, or deposits thereof (continental or marine); dust includes ‘loess,’ defined as continental aeolian silt (4–62.5 μm). Dust is well-known from Earth's near-time (mostly Quaternary) record, and recognized as a high-fidelity archive of climate, but remains under-recognized for deep time. Attributes such as thickness, grain size, magnetism, pedogenesis, and provenance of dust form valuable indicators of paleoclimate to constrain models of atmospheric dustiness. Additionally, dust acts as an agent of climate change via both direct and indirect effects on radiative forcing, and on productivity, and thus the biosphere and carbon cycling. Dust from the late Paleozoic of western equatorial Pangea reflects ultimate derivation from orogens (ancestral Rocky Mountains, Central Pangean Mountains), whereas dust from southwestern Pangea (Bolivia) reflects both proximal volcanism and crustal material. Records of dust conducive to cyclostratigraphic analysis, such as data on dust inputs from carbonate sections, or magnetism in paleo-loess, reveal dust cyclicity at Milankovitch timescales, but resolution is compromised if records are too brief, or irregular in interval or magnitude of the attribute being measured. Climate modeling enables identification of the primary regions of dust sourcing in deep time, and impacts of dust on radiative balance and biogeochemistry. Deep-time modeling remains preliminary, but is achievable, and indicates principal dust sources in the Pangean subtropics, with sources increasing during colder climates. Carbon cycle modeling suggests that glacial-phase dust increases stimulated extreme productivity, potentially increasing algal activity and perturbing ecosystem compositions of the late Paleozoic.
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Pu B, Ginoux P. Projection of American dustiness in the late 21 st century due to climate change. Sci Rep 2017; 7:5553. [PMID: 28717135 PMCID: PMC5514090 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-05431-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2017] [Accepted: 05/30/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Pu
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, 08544, USA. .,NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, 08540, USA.
| | - Paul Ginoux
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, 08540, USA
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Rose KC, Graves RA, Hansen WD, Harvey BJ, Qiu J, Wood SA, Ziter C, Turner MG. Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology. Ecol Lett 2016; 20:147-157. [PMID: 28029730 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Revised: 08/08/2016] [Accepted: 11/15/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space-time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are "expanding", "shrinking", "speeding up" and "slowing down" ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin C Rose
- Department of Biological Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, 12309, USA
| | - Rose A Graves
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Brian J Harvey
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Jiangxiao Qiu
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Stephen A Wood
- Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
| | - Carly Ziter
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Monica G Turner
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
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Glotter M, Elliott J. Simulating US agriculture in a modern Dust Bowl drought. NATURE PLANTS 2016; 3:16193. [PMID: 27941818 DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2016.193] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2016] [Accepted: 11/10/2016] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather1-3, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts4,5. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation6 and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses ∼50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by ∼25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Glotter
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 S Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
| | - Joshua Elliott
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA
- Computation Institute, University of Chicago, 5735 S Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
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Birgé HE, Bevans RA, Allen CR, Angeler DG, Baer SG, Wall DH. Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2016; 183:371-378. [PMID: 27344211 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2015] [Revised: 06/12/2016] [Accepted: 06/17/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah E Birgé
- Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, and School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA.
| | - Rebecca A Bevans
- Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, and School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA.
| | - Craig R Allen
- U.S. Geological Survey-Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, and School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA.
| | - David G Angeler
- Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, PO Box 7050, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden.
| | - Sara G Baer
- Department of Plant Biology and Center for Ecology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA.
| | - Diana H Wall
- School of Global Environmental Sustainability, and Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80526-1036, USA.
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Abstract
Observed temperature extremes over the continental United States can be represented by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to daily record low minimum temperatures, and this ratio has increased to a value of about 2 to 1, averaged over the first decade of the 21st century, albeit with large interannual variability. Two different versions of a global coupled climate model (CCSM4), as well as 23 other coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, show larger values of this ratio than observations, mainly as a result of greater numbers of record highs since the 1980s compared with observations. This is partly because of the "warm 1930s" in the observations, which made it more difficult to set record highs later in the century, and partly because of a trend toward less rainfall and reduced evapotranspiration in the model versions compared with observations. We compute future projections of this ratio on the basis of its estimated dependence on mean temperature increase, which we find robustly at play in both observations and simulations. The use of this relation also has the advantage of removing dependence of a projection on a specific scenario. An empirical projection of the ratio of record highs to record lows is obtained from the nonlinear relationship in observations from 1930 to 2015, thus correcting downward the likely biased future projections of the model. For example, for a 3 °C warming in US temperatures, the ratio of record highs to lows is projected to be ∼15 ± 8 compared to the present average ratio of just over 2.
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Yang H, Luo P, Wang J, Mou C, Mo L, Wang Z, Fu Y, Lin H, Yang Y, Bhatta LD. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0134795. [PMID: 26237220 PMCID: PMC4523184 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2015] [Accepted: 07/14/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water-conserving agricultural practices should be implemented as adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Yang
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Luo
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Jun Wang
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Chengxiang Mou
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Li Mo
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyuan Wang
- Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming, China
| | - Yao Fu
- Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | - Honghui Lin
- College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yongping Yang
- Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | - Laxmi Dutt Bhatta
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal
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Fiore AM, Naik V, Leibensperger EM. Air quality and climate connections. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2015; 65:645-85. [PMID: 25976481 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 135] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies. IMPLICATIONS The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arlene M Fiore
- a Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University , Palisades , NY , USA
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