The evolution of drug resistance and the curious orthodoxy of aggressive chemotherapy

Antifragility as a complex system's response to perturbations, volatility, and time

Antifragility characterizes the benefit of a dynamical system derived from the variability in environmental perturbations. Antifragility carries a precise definition that quantifies a system's output response to input variability. Systems may respond poorly to perturbations (fragile) or benefit from perturbations (antifragile). In this manuscript, we review a range of applications of antifragility theory in technical systems (e.g., traffic control, robotics) and natural systems (e.g., cancer therapy, antibiotics). While there is a broad overlap in methods used to quantify and apply antifragility across disciplines, there is a need for precisely defining the scales at which antifragility operates. Thus, we provide a brief general introduction to the properties of antifragility in applied systems and review relevant literature for both natural and technical systems' antifragility. We frame this review within three scales common to technical systems: intrinsic (input-output nonlinearity), inherited (extrinsic environmental signals), and interventional (feedback control), with associated counterparts in biological systems: ecological (homogeneous systems), evolutionary (heterogeneous systems), and interventional (control). We use the common noun in designing systems that exhibit antifragile behavior across scales and guide the reader along the spectrum of fragility-adaptiveness-resilience-robustness-antifragility, the principles behind it, and its practical implications.

Steering and controlling evolution - from bioengineering to fighting pathogens

Control interventions steer the evolution of molecules, viruses, microorganisms or other cells towards a desired outcome. Applications range from engineering biomolecules and synthetic organisms to drug, therapy and vaccine design against pathogens and cancer. In all these instances, a control system alters the eco-evolutionary trajectory of a target system, inducing new functions or suppressing escape evolution. Here, we synthesize the objectives, mechanisms and dynamics of eco-evolutionary control in different biological systems. We discuss how the control system learns and processes information about the target system by sensing or measuring, through adaptive evolution or computational prediction of future trajectories. This information flow distinguishes pre-emptive control strategies by humans from feedback control in biotic systems. We establish a cost-benefit calculus to gauge and optimize control protocols, highlighting the fundamental link between predictability of evolution and efficacy of pre-emptive control.

Design and synthesis of novel rigid dibenzo[b,f]azepines through ring closure technique as promising anticancer candidates against leukaemia and acting as selective topoisomerase II inhibitors and DNA intercalators

In this research, two novel series of dibenzo[b,f]azepines (14 candidates) were designed and synthesised based on the rigidification principle and following the reported doxorubicin's pharmacophoric features. The anti-proliferative activity was evaluated at the NCI against a panel of 60 cancer cell lines. Further, the promising candidates (5a-g) were evaluated for their ability to inhibit topoisomerase II, where 5e was noticed to be the most active congener. Moreover, its cytotoxicity was evaluated against leukaemia SR cells. Also, 5e arrested the cell cycle at the G1 phase and increased the apoptosis ratio by 37.34%. Furthermore, in vivo studies of 5e showed the inhibition of tumour proliferation and the decrease in its volume. Histopathology and liver enzymes were examined as well. Besides, molecular docking, physicochemical, and pharmacokinetic properties were carried out. Finally, a SAR study was discussed to open the gate for further optimisation of the most promising candidate (5e).HighlightsTwo novel series of dibenzo[b,f]azepines were designed and synthesised based on the rigidification principle in drug design.The anti-proliferative activity was evaluated at the NCI against a panel of 60 cancer cell lines.5e was the most active anti-topo II congener (IC₅₀ = 6.36 ± 0.36 µM).5e was evaluated against leukaemia SR cells and its cytotoxic effect was confirmed (IC₅₀ = 13.05 ± 0.62 µM).In vivo studies of 5e significantly inhibited tumour proliferation by 62.7% and decreased tumour volume to 30.1 mm³ compared to doxorubicin treatment.

The uncertain role of substandard and falsified medicines in the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance

Approximately 10% of antimicrobials used by humans in low- and middle-income countries are estimated to be substandard or falsified. In addition to their negative impact on morbidity and mortality, they may also be important drivers of antimicrobial resistance. Despite such concerns, our understanding of this relationship remains rudimentary. Substandard and falsified medicines have the potential to either increase or decrease levels of resistance, and here we discuss a range of mechanisms that could drive these changes. Understanding these effects and their relative importance will require an improved understanding of how different drug exposures affect the emergence and spread of resistance and of how the percentage of active pharmaceutical ingredients in substandard and falsified medicines is temporally and spatially distributed.

Nucleoside-based anticancer drugs: Mechanism of action and drug resistance

Nucleoside-based drugs, recognized as purine or pyrimidine analogs, have been potent therapeutic agents since their introduction in 1950, deployed widely in the treatment of diverse diseases such as cancers, myelodysplastic syndromes, multiple sclerosis, and viral infections. These antimetabolites establish complex interactions with cellular molecular constituents, primarily via activation of phosphorylation cascades leading to consequential interactions with nucleic acids. However, the therapeutic efficacy of these agents is frequently compromised by the development of drug resistance, a continually emerging challenge in their clinical application. This comprehensive review explores the mechanisms of resistance to nucleoside-based drugs, encompassing a wide spectrum of phenomena from alterations in membrane transporters and activating kinases to changes in drug elimination strategies and DNA damage repair mechanisms. The critical analysis in this review underlines complex interactions of drug and cell and also guides towards novel therapeutic strategies to counteract resistance. The development of targeted therapies, novel nucleoside analogs, and synergistic drug combinations are promising approaches to restore tumor sensitivity and improve patient outcomes.

Stochastic competitive release and adaptive chemotherapy

We develop a finite-cell model of tumor natural selection dynamics to investigate the stochastic fluctuations associated with multiple rounds of adaptive chemotherapy. The adaptive cycles are designed to avoid chemoresistance in the tumor by managing the ecological mechanism of competitive release of a resistant subpopulation. Our model is based on a three-component evolutionary game played among healthy (H), sensitive (S), and resistant (R) populations of N cells, with a chemotherapy control parameter, C(t), which we use to dynamically impose selection pressure on the sensitive subpopulation to slow tumor growth and manage competitive release of the resistant population. The adaptive chemoschedule is designed based on the deterministic (N→∞) adjusted replicator dynamical system, then implemented using the finite-cell stochastic frequency dependent Moran process model (N=10K-50K) to ascertain the cumulative effect of the stochastic fluctuations on the efficacy of the adaptive schedules over multiple rounds. We quantify the stochastic fixation probability regions of the R and S populations in the HSR trilinear phase plane as a function of the control parameter C∈[0,1], showing that the size of the R region increases with increasing C. We then implement an adaptive time-dependent schedule C(t) for the stochastic model and quantify the variances (using principal component coordinates) associated with the evolutionary cycles over multiple rounds of adaptive therapy. The variances increase subquadratically through several rounds before the evolutionary cycle begins to break down. Despite this, we show the stochastic adaptive schedules are more effective at delaying resistance than standard maximum tolerated dose and low-dose metronomic schedules. The simplified low-dimensional model provides some insights on how well multiple rounds of adaptive therapies are likely to perform over a range of tumor sizes (i.e., different values of N) if the goal is to maintain a sustained balance among competing subpopulations of cells to avoid chemoresistance via competitive release in a stochastic environment.

A stochastic analysis of the interplay between antibiotic dose, mode of action, and bacterial competition in the evolution of antibiotic resistance

The use of an antibiotic may lead to the emergence and spread of bacterial strains resistant to this antibiotic. Experimental and theoretical studies have investigated the drug dose that minimizes the risk of resistance evolution over the course of treatment of an individual, showing that the optimal dose will either be the highest or the lowest drug concentration possible to administer; however, no analytical results exist that help decide between these two extremes. To address this gap, we develop a stochastic mathematical model of bacterial dynamics under antibiotic treatment. We explore various scenarios of density regulation (bacterial density affects cell birth or death rates), and antibiotic modes of action (biostatic or biocidal). We derive analytical results for the survival probability of the resistant subpopulation until the end of treatment, the size of the resistant subpopulation at the end of treatment, the carriage time of the resistant subpopulation until it is replaced by a sensitive one after treatment, and we verify these results with stochastic simulations. We find that the scenario of density regulation and the drug mode of action are important determinants of the survival of a resistant subpopulation. Resistant cells survive best when bacterial competition reduces cell birth and under biocidal antibiotics. Compared to an analogous deterministic model, the population size reached by the resistant type is larger and carriage time is slightly reduced by stochastic loss of resistant cells. Moreover, we obtain an analytical prediction of the antibiotic concentration that maximizes the survival of resistant cells, which may help to decide which drug dosage (not) to administer. Our results are amenable to experimental tests and help link the within and between host scales in epidemiological models.

Dynamics of parasite growth in genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum isolates

Multiple parasite lineages with different proliferation rates or fitness may coexist within a clinical malaria isolate, resulting in complex growth interactions and variations in phenotype. To elucidate the dynamics of parasite growth in multiclonal isolates, we measured growth rates (GRs) of three Plasmodium falciparum Cambodian isolates, including IPC_3445 (MRA-1236), IPC_5202 (MRA-1240), IPC_6403 (MRA-1285), and parasite lineages previously cloned from each of these isolates by limiting dilution. Following synchronization, in vitro cultures of each parasite line were maintained over four consecutive asexual cycles (192 h), with thin smears prepared at each 48-h cycle to estimate GR and fold change in parasitemia (FCP). Cell cycle time (CCT), the duration it takes for ring-stage parasites to develop into mature schizonts, was measured by monitoring the development of 0-3-h post-invasion rings for up to 52 h post-incubation. Laboratory lines 3D7 (MRA-102) and Dd2 (MRA-150) were used as controls. Significant differences in GR, FCP, and CCT were observed between parasite isolates and clonal lineages from each isolate. The parasite lines studied here have well-defined growth phenotypes and will facilitate basic malaria research and development of novel malaria interventions. These lines are available to malaria researchers through the MR4 collection of NIAID's BEI Resources Program.

Defining the Benefits of Antibiotic Resistance in Commensals and the Scope for Resistance Optimization

Antibiotic resistance is a major medical and public health challenge, characterized by global increases in the prevalence of resistant strains. The conventional view is that all antibiotic resistance is problematic, even when not in pathogens. Resistance in commensal bacteria poses risks, as resistant organisms can provide a reservoir of resistance genes that can be horizontally transferred to pathogens or may themselves cause opportunistic infections in the future. While these risks are real, we propose that commensal resistance can also generate benefits during antibiotic treatment of human infection, by promoting continued ecological suppression of pathogens. To define and illustrate this alternative conceptual perspective, we use a two-species mathematical model to identify the necessary and sufficient ecological conditions for beneficial resistance. We show that the benefits are limited to species (or strain) interactions where commensals suppress pathogen growth and are maximized when commensals compete with, rather than prey on or otherwise exploit pathogens. By identifying benefits of commensal resistance, we propose that rather than strictly minimizing all resistance, resistance management may be better viewed as an optimization problem. We discuss implications in two applied contexts: bystander (nontarget) selection within commensal microbiomes and pathogen treatment given polymicrobial infections. IMPORTANCE Antibiotic resistance is commonly viewed as universally costly, regardless of which bacterial cells express resistance. Here, we derive an opposing logic, where resistance in commensal bacteria can lead to reductions in pathogen density and improved outcomes on both the patient and public health scales. We use a mathematical model of commensal-pathogen interactions to define the necessary and sufficient conditions for beneficial resistance, highlighting the importance of reciprocal ecological inhibition to maximize the benefits of resistance. More broadly, we argue that determining the benefits as well as the costs of resistances in human microbiomes can transform resistance management from a minimization to an optimization problem. We discuss applied contexts and close with a review of key resistance optimization dimensions, including the magnitude, spectrum, and mechanism of resistance.

The future of evolutionary medicine: sparking innovation in biomedicine and public health

Evolutionary medicine - i.e. the application of insights from evolution and ecology to biomedicine - has tremendous untapped potential to spark transformational innovation in biomedical research, clinical care and public health. Fundamentally, a systematic mapping across the full diversity of life is required to identify animal model systems for disease vulnerability, resistance, and counter-resistance that could lead to novel clinical treatments. Evolutionary dynamics should guide novel therapeutic approaches that target the development of treatment resistance in cancers (e.g., via adaptive or extinction therapy) and antimicrobial resistance (e.g., via innovations in chemistry, antimicrobial usage, and phage therapy). With respect to public health, the insight that many modern human pathologies (e.g., obesity) result from mismatches between the ecologies in which we evolved and our modern environments has important implications for disease prevention. Life-history evolution can also shed important light on patterns of disease burden, for example in reproductive health. Experience during the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has underlined the critical role of evolutionary dynamics (e.g., with respect to virulence and transmissibility) in predicting and managing this and future pandemics, and in using evolutionary principles to understand and address aspects of human behavior that impede biomedical innovation and public health (e.g., unhealthy behaviors and vaccine hesitancy). In conclusion, greater interdisciplinary collaboration is vital to systematically leverage the insight-generating power of evolutionary medicine to better understand, prevent, and treat existing and emerging threats to human, animal, and planetary health.

Fast drug rotation reduces bacterial resistance evolution in a microcosm experiment

Drug rotation (cycling), in which multiple drugs are administrated alternatively, has the potential for limiting resistance evolution in pathogens. The frequency of drug alternation could be a major factor to determine the effectiveness of drug rotation. Drug rotation practices often have low frequency of drug alternation, with an expectation of resistance reversion. Here we, based on evolutionary rescue and compensatory evolution theories, suggest that fast drug rotation can limit resistance evolution in the first place. This is because fast drug rotation would give little time for the evolutionarily rescued populations to recover in population size and genetic diversity, and thus decrease the chance of future evolutionary rescue under alternate environmental stresses. We experimentally tested this hypothesis using the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens and two antibiotics (chloramphenicol and rifampin). Increasing drug rotation frequency reduced the chance of evolutionary rescue, and most of the finally surviving bacterial populations were resistant to both drugs. Drug resistance incurred significant fitness costs, which did not differ among the drug treatment histories. A link between population sizes during the early stages of drug treatment and the end-point fates of populations (extinction vs survival) suggested that population size recovery and compensatory evolution before drug shift increase the chance of population survival. Our results therefore advocate fast drug rotation as a promising approach to reduce bacterial resistance evolution, which in particular could be a substitute for drug combination when the latter has safety risks.

A narrative review of the intermediate category of the antimicrobial susceptibility test: relation with dosing and possible impact on antimicrobial stewardship

The interpretation of 'susceptible (S)' or 'resistant (R)' results of antimicrobial susceptibility testing is easily understood, but the interpretation of the 'intermediate (I)' category can be confusing. This review critically discusses how this categorization (clinical breakpoints) comes into being with the emphasis on the use of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic data. It discusses the differences between the 'I' according to the CLSI and the EUCAST. This review also discusses the recent EUCAST change of the 'I' definition, and the impact of this change from laboratory and clinical points of view.

Targeting malaria parasites inside mosquitoes: ecoevolutionary consequences

Proof-of-concept studies demonstrate that antimalarial drugs designed for human treatment can also be applied to mosquitoes to interrupt malaria transmission. Deploying a new control tool is ideally undertaken within a stewardship programme that maximises a drug's lifespan by minimising the risk of resistance evolution and slowing its spread once emerged. We ask: what are the epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of targeting parasites within mosquitoes? Our synthesis argues that targeting parasites inside mosquitoes (i) can be modelled by readily expanding existing epidemiological frameworks; (ii) provides a functionally novel control method that has potential to be more robust to resistance evolution than targeting parasites in humans; and (iii) could extend the lifespan and clinical benefit of antimalarials used exclusively to treat humans.

Antibiotics Drive Expansion of Rare Pathogens in a Chronic Infection Microbiome Model

Chronic (long-lasting) infections are globally a major and rising cause of morbidity and mortality. Unlike typical acute infections, chronic infections are ecologically diverse, characterized by the presence of a polymicrobial mix of opportunistic pathogens and human-associated commensals. To address the challenge of chronic infection microbiomes, we focus on a particularly well-characterized disease, cystic fibrosis (CF), where polymicrobial lung infections persist for decades despite frequent exposure to antibiotics. Epidemiological analyses point to conflicting results on the benefits of antibiotic treatment yet are confounded by the dependency of antibiotic exposures on prior pathogen presence, limiting their ability to draw causal inferences on the relationships between antibiotic exposure and pathogen dynamics. To address this limitation, we develop a synthetic infection microbiome model representing CF metacommunity diversity and benchmark on clinical data. We show that in the absence of antibiotics, replicate microbiome structures in a synthetic sputum medium are highly repeatable and dominated by oral commensals. In contrast, challenge with physiologically relevant antibiotic doses leads to substantial community perturbation characterized by multiple alternate pathogen-dominant states and enrichment of drug-resistant species. These results provide evidence that antibiotics can drive the expansion (via competitive release) of previously rare opportunistic pathogens and offer a path toward microbiome-informed conditional treatment strategies.

IMPORTANCE We develop and clinically benchmark an experimental model of the cystic fibrosis (CF) lung infection microbiome to investigate the impacts of antibiotic exposures on chronic, polymicrobial infections. We show that a single experimental model defined by metacommunity data can partially recapitulate the diversity of individual microbiome states observed across a population of people with CF. In the absence of antibiotics, we see highly repeatable community structures, dominated by oral microbes. Under clinically relevant antibiotic exposures, we see diverse and frequently pathogen-dominated communities, and a nonevolutionary enrichment of antimicrobial resistance on the community scale, mediated by competitive release. The results highlight the potential importance of nonevolutionary (community-ecological) processes in driving the growing global crisis of increasing antibiotic resistance.

A model for the intrinsic limit of cancer therapy: Duality of treatment-induced cell death and treatment-induced stemness

Intratumor cellular heterogeneity and non-genetic cell plasticity in tumors pose a recently recognized challenge to cancer treatment. Because of the dispersion of initial cell states within a clonal tumor cell population, a perturbation imparted by a cytocidal drug only kills a fraction of cells. Due to dynamic instability of cellular states the cells not killed are pushed by the treatment into a variety of functional states, including a "stem-like state" that confers resistance to treatment and regenerative capacity. This immanent stress-induced stemness competes against cell death in response to the same perturbation and may explain the near-inevitable recurrence after any treatment. This double-edged-sword mechanism of treatment complements the selection of preexisting resistant cells in explaining post-treatment progression. Unlike selection, the induction of a resistant state has not been systematically analyzed as an immanent cause of relapse. Here, we present a generic elementary model and analytical examination of this intrinsic limitation to therapy. We show how the relative proclivity towards cell death versus transition into a stem-like state, as a function of drug dose, establishes either a window of opportunity for containing tumors or the inevitability of progression following therapy. The model considers measurable cell behaviors independent of specific molecular pathways and provides a new theoretical framework for optimizing therapy dosing and scheduling as cancer treatment paradigms move from "maximal tolerated dose," which may promote therapy induced-stemness, to repeated "minimally effective doses" (as in adaptive therapies), which contain the tumor and avoid therapy-induced progression.

Comparing optimization criteria in antibiotic allocation protocols

Clinicians prescribing antibiotics in a hospital context follow one of several possible 'treatment protocols'-heuristic rules designed to balance the immediate needs of patients against the long-term threat posed by the evolution of antibiotic resistance and multi-resistant bacteria. Several criteria have been proposed for assessing these protocols; unfortunately, these criteria frequently conflict with one another, each providing a different recommendation as to which treatment protocol is best. Here, we review and compare these optimization criteria. We are able to demonstrate that criteria focused primarily on slowing evolution of resistance are directly antagonistic to patient health both in the short and long term. We provide a new optimization criteria of our own, intended to more meaningfully balance the needs of the future and present. Asymptotic methods allow us to evaluate this criteria and provide insights not readily available through the numerical methods used previously in the literature. When cycling antibiotics, we find an antibiotic switching time which proves close to optimal across a wide range of modelling assumptions.

Targeted vaccination and the speed of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation

The limited supply of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) raises the question of targeted vaccination. Many countries have opted to vaccinate older and more sensitive hosts first to minimize the disease burden. However, what are the evolutionary consequences of targeted vaccination? We clarify the consequences of different vaccination strategies through the analysis of the speed of viral adaptation measured as the rate of change of the frequency of a vaccine-adapted variant. We show that such a variant is expected to spread faster if vaccination targets individuals who are likely to be involved in a higher number of contacts. We also discuss the pros and cons of dose-sparing strategies. Because delaying the second dose increases the proportion of the population vaccinated with a single dose, this strategy can both speed up the spread of the vaccine-adapted variant and reduce the cumulative number of deaths. Hence, strategies that are most effective at slowing viral adaptation may not always be epidemiologically optimal. A careful assessment of both the epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of alternative vaccination strategies is required to determine which individuals should be vaccinated first.

The molecular mechanisms behind activation of FLT3 in acute myeloid leukemia and resistance to therapy by selective inhibitors

Acute myeloid leukemia is an aggressive cancer, which, in spite of increasingly better understanding of its genetic background remains difficult to treat. Mutations in the FLT3 gene are observed in ≈30% of the patients. Most of these mutations are internal tandem duplications (ITDs) of a sequence within the protein coding region, an activation mechanism that is almost non-existent with other genes and cancers. As patients each carry their own unique set of mutations, it is challenging to understand how ITDs activate the protein, and ascertain the risk for each individual patient. Available treatment options are limited due to development of drug resistance. Here, recent studies are reviewed that help to better understand the molecular mechanism behind activation of the FLT3 protein due to mutations. It is argued that difference in mutation sequences and especially location might be coupled to prognosis. When it comes to FLT3 inhibitors, key differences between them can be attributed to the mode of inhibition (type-1 and type-2 inhibitors), effective inhibitory coefficient in the blood plasma and off-target binding. Accounting for the position and length of insertions may in the future be used to predict prognosis and rationalise treatment. Development of new inhibitors must take into account the potential for resistance mutations. Inhibitors aimed at multiple specific targets are currently being developed. These, and as well as combination therapies will hopefully lead to longer periods during which targeted FLT3 therapy will remain effective.

Advantages of laboratory natural selection in the applied sciences

In the past three decades, laboratory natural selection has become a widely used technique in biological research. Most studies which have utilized this technique are in the realm of basic science, often testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of evolutionary change or ecological dynamics. While laboratory natural selection is currently utilized heavily in this setting, there is a significant gap with its usage in applied studies, especially when compared to the other selection experiment methodologies like artificial selection and directed evolution. This is despite avenues of research in the applied sciences which seem well suited to laboratory natural selection. In this review, we place laboratory natural selection in context with other selection experiments, identify the characteristics which make it well suited for particular kinds of applied research and briefly cover key examples of the usefulness of selection experiments within applied science. Finally, we identify three promising areas of inquiry for laboratory natural selection in the applied sciences: bioremediation technology, identifying mechanisms of drug resistance and optimizing biofuel production. Although laboratory natural selection is currently less utilized in applied science when compared to basic research, the method has immense promise in the field moving forward.

Transcriptional differentiation of Trypanosoma brucei during in vitro acquisition of resistance to acoziborole

Subspecies of the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei are the causative agents of Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT), a debilitating neglected tropical disease prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. HAT case numbers have steadily decreased since the start of the century, and sustainable elimination of one form of the disease is in sight. However, key to this is the development of novel drugs to combat the disease. Acoziborole is a recently developed benzoxaborole, currently in advanced clinical trials, for treatment of stage 1 and stage 2 HAT. Importantly, acoziborole is orally bioavailable, and curative with one dose. Recent studies have made significant progress in determining the molecular mode of action of acoziborole. However, less is known about the potential mechanisms leading to acoziborole resistance in trypanosomes. In this study, an in vitro-derived acoziborole-resistant cell line was generated and characterised. The AcoR line exhibited significant cross-resistance with the methyltransferase inhibitor sinefungin as well as hypersensitisation to known trypanocides. Interestingly, transcriptomics analysis of AcoR cells indicated the parasites had obtained a procyclic- or stumpy-like transcriptome profile, with upregulation of procyclin surface proteins as well as differential regulation of key metabolic genes known to be expressed in a life cycle-specific manner, even in the absence of major morphological changes. However, no changes were observed in transcripts encoding CPSF3, the recently identified protein target of acoziborole. The results suggest that generation of resistance to this novel compound in vitro can be accompanied by transcriptomic switches resembling a procyclic- or stumpy-type phenotype.

Drug-induced resistance evolution necessitates less aggressive treatment

Increasing body of experimental evidence suggests that anticancer and antimicrobial therapies may themselves promote the acquisition of drug resistance by increasing mutability. The successful control of evolving populations requires that such biological costs of control are identified, quantified and included to the evolutionarily informed treatment protocol. Here we identify, characterise and exploit a trade-off between decreasing the target population size and generating a surplus of treatment-induced rescue mutations. We show that the probability of cure is maximized at an intermediate dosage, below the drug concentration yielding maximal population decay, suggesting that treatment outcomes may in some cases be substantially improved by less aggressive treatment strategies. We also provide a general analytical relationship that implicitly links growth rate, pharmacodynamics and dose-dependent mutation rate to an optimal control law. Our results highlight the important, but often neglected, role of fundamental eco-evolutionary costs of control. These costs can often lead to situations, where decreasing the cumulative drug dosage may be preferable even when the objective of the treatment is elimination, and not containment. Taken together, our results thus add to the ongoing criticism of the standard practice of administering aggressive, high-dose therapies and motivate further experimental and clinical investigation of the mutagenicity and other hidden collateral costs of therapies.

Price equation captures the role of drug interactions and collateral effects in the evolution of multidrug resistance

Bacterial adaptation to antibiotic combinations depends on the joint inhibitory effects of the two drugs (drug interaction [DI]) and how resistance to one drug impacts resistance to the other (collateral effects [CE]). Here we model these evolutionary dynamics on two-dimensional phenotype spaces that leverage scaling relations between the drug-response surfaces of drug-sensitive (ancestral) and drug-resistant (mutant) populations. We show that evolved resistance to the component drugs - and in turn, the adaptation of growth rate - is governed by a Price equation whose covariance terms encode geometric features of both the two-drug-response surface (DI) in ancestral cells and the correlations between resistance levels to those drugs (CE). Within this framework, mean evolutionary trajectories reduce to a type of weighted gradient dynamics, with the drug interaction dictating the shape of the underlying landscape and the collateral effects constraining the motion on those landscapes. We also demonstrate how constraints on available mutational pathways can be incorporated into the framework, adding a third key driver of evolution. Our results clarify the complex relationship between drug interactions and collateral effects in multidrug environments and illustrate how specific dosage combinations can shift the weighting of these two effects, leading to different and temporally explicit selective outcomes.

Examining adaptive evolution of immune activity: opportunities provided by gastropods in the age of 'omics'

Parasites threaten all free-living organisms, including molluscs. Understanding the evolution of immune defence traits in natural host populations is crucial for predicting their long-term performance under continuous infection risk. Adaptive trait evolution requires that traits are subject to selection (i.e. contribute to organismal fitness) and that they are heritable. Despite broad interest in the evolutionary ecology of immune activity in animals, the understanding of selection on and evolutionary potential of immune defence traits is far from comprehensive. For instance, empirical observations are only rarely in line with theoretical predictions of immune activity being subject to stabilizing selection. This discrepancy may be because ecoimmunological studies can typically cover only a fraction of the complexity of an animal immune system. Similarly, molecular immunology/immunogenetics studies provide a mechanistic understanding of immunity, but neglect variation that arises from natural genetic differences among individuals and from environmental conditions. Here, we review the current literature on natural selection on and evolutionary potential of immune traits in animals, signal how merging ecological immunology and genomics will strengthen evolutionary ecological research on immunity, and indicate research opportunities for molluscan gastropods for which well-established ecological understanding and/or 'immune-omics' resources are already available. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Molluscan genomics: broad insights and future directions for a neglected phylum'.

Multi-step vs. single-step resistance evolution under different drugs, pharmacokinetics, and treatment regimens

The success of antimicrobial treatment is threatened by the evolution of drug resistance. Population genetic models are an important tool in mitigating that threat. However, most such models consider resistance emergence via a single mutational step. Here, we assembled experimental evidence that drug resistance evolution follows two patterns: (i) a single mutation, which provides a large resistance benefit, or (ii) multiple mutations, each conferring a small benefit, which combine to yield high-level resistance. Using stochastic modeling, we then investigated the consequences of these two patterns for treatment failure and population diversity under various treatments. We find that resistance evolution is substantially limited if more than two mutations are required and that the extent of this limitation depends on the combination of drug type and pharmacokinetic profile. Further, if multiple mutations are necessary, adaptive treatment, which only suppresses the bacterial population, delays treatment failure due to resistance for a longer time than aggressive treatment, which aims at eradication.

Role of synergy and antagonism in designing multidrug adaptive chemotherapy schedules

Chemotherapeutic resistance via the mechanism of competitive release of resistant tumor cell subpopulations is a major problem associated with cancer treatments and one of the main causes of tumor recurrence. Often, chemoresistance is mitigated by using multidrug schedules (two or more combination therapies) that can act synergistically, additively, or antagonistically on the heterogeneous population of cells as they evolve. In this paper, we develop a three-component evolutionary game theory model to design two-drug adaptive schedules that mitigate chemoresistance and delay tumor recurrence in an evolving collection of tumor cells with two resistant subpopulations and one chemosensitive population that has a higher baseline fitness but is not resistant to either drug. Using the nonlinear replicator dynamical system with a payoff matrix of Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) type (enforcing a cost to resistance), we investigate the nonlinear dynamics of this three-component system along with an additional tumor growth model whose growth rate is a function of the fitness landscape of the tumor cell populations. A key parameter determines whether the two drugs interact synergistically, additively, or antagonistically. We show that antagonistic drug interactions generally result in slower rates of adaptation of the resistant cells than synergistic ones, making them more effective in combating the evolution of resistance. We then design evolutionary cycles (closed loops) in the three-component phase space by shaping the fitness landscape of the cell populations (i.e., altering the evolutionary stable states of the game) using appropriately designed time-dependent schedules (adaptive therapy), altering the dosages and timing of the two drugs. We describe two key bifurcations associated with our drug interaction parameter which help explain why antagonistic interactions are more effective at controlling competitive release of the resistant population than synergistic interactions in the context of an evolving tumor.

Influence of bacterial culture medium on peptidoglycan binding of cell wall lytic enzymes

The bacteriolysin lysostaphin (Lst) and endolysin PlyPH are potent modular lytic enzymes with activity against clinically-relevant Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus cereus, respectively. Both enzymes possess an N-terminal catalytic domain and C-terminal binding domain, with the latter conferring significant enzyme specificity. Lst and PlyPH show reduced activity in the presence of bacterial growth-supporting conditions, such as complex media. Here, we hypothesize that Lst and PlyPH bind poorly to their targets in growth media, which may influence their use in antimicrobial applications in the food industry, as therapeutics, and for control of microbial communities. To this end, binding of isolated Lst and PlyPH binding domains to target bacteria was quantified in the presence of three increasingly complex media - phosphate buffered saline (PBS), defined growth medium (AAM) and undefined complex medium (TSB) by surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and flow cytometry. Evaluation of binding kinetics by SPR demonstrated that PlyPH binding was particularly sensitive to medium composition, with 8-fold lower association and 3.4-fold lower dissociation rate constants to B. cereus in TSB compared to PBS. Flow cytometry studies indicated a decrease in the binding-dependent fluorescent populations of S. aureus and B. cereus, for lysostaphin binding domain and PlyPH binding domain, respectively, in TSB compared to PBS. Enzyme binding behavior was consistent with the enzymes' catalytic activity in the three media, thereby suggesting that compromised enzyme binding could be responsible for poor activity in more complex growth media.

Carbon nano-onion-mediated dual targeting of P-selectin and P-glycoprotein to overcome cancer drug resistance

The transmembrane P-glycoprotein (P-gp) pumps that efflux drugs are a major mechanism of cancer drug resistance. They are also important in protecting normal tissue cells from poisonous xenobiotics and endogenous metabolites. Here, we report a fucoidan-decorated silica-carbon nano-onion (FSCNO) hybrid nanoparticle that targets tumor vasculature to specifically release P-gp inhibitor and anticancer drug into tumor cells. The tumor vasculature targeting capability of the nanoparticle is demonstrated using multiple models. Moreover, we reveal the superior light absorption property of nano-onion in the near infrared region (NIR), which enables triggered drug release from the nanoparticle at a low NIR power. The released inhibitor selectively binds to P-gp pumps and disables their function, which improves the bioavailability of anticancer drug inside the cells. Furthermore, free P-gp inhibitor significantly increases the systemic toxicity of a chemotherapy drug, which can be resolved by delivering them with FSCNO nanoparticles in combination with a short low-power NIR laser irradiation.

Treating symptomatic infections and the co-evolution of virulence and drug resistance

Antimicrobial therapeutic treatments are by definition applied after the onset of symptoms, which tend to correlate with infection severity. Using mathematical epidemiology models, I explore how this link affects the coevolutionary dynamics between the virulence of an infection, measured via host mortality rate, and its susceptibility to chemotherapy. I show that unless resistance pre-exists in the population, drug-resistant infections are initially more virulent than drug-sensitive ones. As the epidemic unfolds, virulence is more counter-selected in drug-sensitive than in drug-resistant infections. This difference decreases over time and, eventually, the exact shape of genetic trade-offs govern long-term evolutionary dynamics. Using adaptive dynamics, I show that two types of evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) may be reached in the context of this simple model and that, depending on the parameter values, an ESS may only be locally stable. In general, the more the treatment rate increases with virulence, the lower the ESS value. Overall, both on the short-term and long-term, having treatment rate depend on infection virulence tend to favour less virulent strains in drug-sensitive infections. These results highlight the importance of the feedbacks between epidemiology, public health policies and parasite evolution, and have implications for the monitoring of virulence evolution.

Fighting microbial pathogens by integrating host ecosystem interactions and evolution

Successful therapies to combat microbial diseases and cancers require incorporating ecological and evolutionary principles. Drawing upon the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology, we present a systems-based approach in which host and disease-causing factors are considered as part of a complex network of interactions, analogous to studies of "classical" ecosystems. Centering this approach around empirical examples of disease treatment, we present evidence that successful therapies invariably engage multiple interactions with other components of the host ecosystem. Many of these factors interact nonlinearly to yield synergistic benefits and curative outcomes. We argue that these synergies and nonlinear feedbacks must be leveraged to improve the study of pathogenesis in situ and to develop more effective therapies. An eco-evolutionary systems perspective has surprising and important consequences, and we use it to articulate areas of high research priority for improving treatment strategies.

Daptomycin treatment impacts resistance in off-target populations of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium

The antimicrobial resistance crisis has persisted despite broad attempts at intervention. It has been proposed that an important driver of resistance is selection imposed on bacterial populations that are not the intended target of antimicrobial therapy. But to date, there has been limited quantitative measure of the mean and variance of resistance following antibiotic exposure. Here we focus on the important nosocomial pathogen Enterococcus faecium in a hospital system where resistance to daptomycin is evolving despite standard interventions. We hypothesized that the intravenous use of daptomycin generates off-target selection for resistance in transmissible gastrointestinal (carriage) populations of E. faecium. We performed a cohort study in which the daptomycin resistance of E. faecium isolated from rectal swabs from daptomycin-exposed patients was compared to a control group of patients exposed to linezolid, a drug with similar indications. In the daptomycin-exposed group, daptomycin resistance of E. faecium from the off-target population was on average 50% higher than resistance in the control group (n = 428 clones from 22 patients). There was also greater phenotypic diversity in daptomycin resistance within daptomycin-exposed patients. In patients where multiple samples over time were available, a wide variability in temporal dynamics were observed, from long-term maintenance of resistance to rapid return to sensitivity after daptomycin treatment stopped. Sequencing of isolates from a subset of patients supports the argument that selection occurs within patients. Our results demonstrate that off-target gastrointestinal populations rapidly respond to intravenous antibiotic exposure. Focusing on the off-target evolutionary dynamics may offer novel avenues to slow the spread of antibiotic resistance.

Searching for Goldilocks: How Evolution and Ecology Can Help Uncover More Effective Patient-Specific Chemotherapies

Deaths from cancer are mostly due to metastatic disease that becomes resistant to therapy. A mainstay treatment for many cancers is chemotherapy, for which the dosing strategy is primarily limited by patient toxicity. While this MTD approach builds upon the intuitively appealing principle that maximum therapeutic benefit is achieved by killing the largest possible number of cancer cells, there is increasing evidence that moderation might allow host-specific features to contribute to success. We believe that a "Goldilocks Window" of submaximal chemotherapy will yield improved overall outcomes. This window combines the complex interplay of cancer cell death, immune activity, emergence of chemoresistance, and metastatic dissemination. These multiple activities driven by chemotherapy have tradeoffs that depend on the specific agents used as well as their dosing levels and schedule. Here we present evidence supporting the idea that MTD may not always be the best approach and offer suggestions toward a more personalized treatment regime that integrates insights into patient-specific eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Modifying Adaptive Therapy to Enhance Competitive Suppression

Adaptive therapy is a promising new approach to cancer treatment. It is designed to leverage competition between drug-sensitive and drug-resistant cells in order to suppress resistance and maintain tumor control for longer. Prompted by encouraging results from a recent pilot clinical trial, we evaluate the design of this initial test of adaptive therapy and identify three simple modifications that should improve performance. These modifications are designed to increase competition and are easy to implement. Using the mathematical model that supported the recent adaptive therapy trial, we show that the suggested modifications further delay time to tumor progression and also increase the range of patients who can benefit from adaptive therapy.

Treatment timing shifts the benefits of short and long antibiotic treatment over infection

Antibiotics are the major tool for treating bacterial infections. Rising antibiotic resistance, however, calls for a better use of antibiotics. While classical recommendations favor long and aggressive treatments, more recent clinical trials advocate for moderate regimens. In this debate, two axes of 'aggression' have typically been conflated: treatment intensity (dose) and treatment duration. The third dimension of treatment timing along each individual's infection course has rarely been addressed. By using a generic mathematical model of bacterial infection controlled by immune response, we examine how the relative effectiveness of antibiotic treatment varies with its timing, duration and antibiotic kill rate. We show that short or long treatments may both be beneficial depending on treatment onset, the target criterion for success and on antibiotic efficacy. This results from the dynamic trade-off between immune response build-up and resistance risk in acute, self-limiting infections, and uncertainty relating symptoms to infection variables. We show that in our model early optimal treatments tend to be 'short and strong', while late optimal treatments tend to be 'mild and long'. This suggests a shift in the aggression axis depending on the timing of treatment. We find that any specific optimal treatment schedule may perform more poorly if evaluated by other criteria, or under different host-specific conditions. Our results suggest that major advances in antibiotic stewardship must come from a deeper empirical understanding of bacterial infection processes in individual hosts. To guide rational therapy, mathematical models need to be constrained by data, including a better quantification of personal disease trajectory in humans. Lay summary: Bacterial infections are becoming more difficult to treat worldwide because bacteria are becoming resistant to the antibiotics used. Addressing this problem requires a better understanding of how treatment along with other host factors impact antibiotic resistance. Until recently, most theoretical research has focused on the importance of antibiotic dosing on antibiotic resistance, however, duration and timing of treatment remain less explored. Here, we use a mathematical model of a generic bacterial infection to study three aspects of treatment: treatment dose/efficacy (defined by the antibiotic kill rate), duration, and timing, and their impact on several infection endpoints. We show that short and long treatment success strongly depends on when treatment begins (defined by the symptom threshold), the target criterion to optimize, and on antibiotic efficacy. We find that if administered early in an infection, "strong and short" therapy performs better, while if treatment begins at higher bacterial densities, a "mild and long" course of antibiotics is favored. In the model host immune defenses are key in preventing relapses, controlling antibiotic resistant bacteria and increasing the effectiveness of moderate intervention. In order to improve rational treatments of human infections, we call for a better quantification of individual disease trajectories in bacteria-immunity space.

Mathematical modeling of the 'inoculum effect': six applicable models and the MIC advancement point concept

Antimicrobial treatment regimens against bacterial pathogens are designed using the drug's minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) measured at a bacterial density of 5.7 log₁₀(colony-forming units (CFU)/mL) in vitro. However, MIC changes with pathogen density, which varies among infectious diseases and during treatment. Incorporating this into treatment design requires realistic mathematical models of the relationships. We compared the MIC–density relationships for Gram-negative Escherichia coli and non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica and Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumonia (for n = 4 drug-susceptible strains per (sub)species and 1–8 log₁₀(CFU/mL) densities), for antimicrobial classes with bactericidal activity against the (sub)species: β-lactams (ceftriaxone and oxacillin), fluoroquinolones (ciprofloxacin), aminoglycosides (gentamicin), glycopeptides (vancomycin) and oxazolidinones (linezolid). Fitting six candidate mathematical models to the log₂(MIC) vs. log₁₀(CFU/mL) curves did not identify one model best capturing the relationships across the pathogen–antimicrobial combinations. Gompertz and logistic models (rather than a previously proposed Michaelis–Menten model) fitted best most often. Importantly, the bacterial density after which the MIC sharply increases (an MIC advancement-point density) and that density's intra-(sub)species range evidently depended on the antimicrobial mechanism of action. Capturing these dependencies for the disease–pathogen–antimicrobial combination could help determine the MICs for which bacterial densities are most informative for treatment regimen design.

Drug-target binding quantitatively predicts optimal antibiotic dose levels in quinolones

Antibiotic resistance is rising and we urgently need to gain a better quantitative understanding of how antibiotics act, which in turn would also speed up the development of new antibiotics. Here, we describe a computational model (COMBAT-COmputational Model of Bacterial Antibiotic Target-binding) that can quantitatively predict antibiotic dose-response relationships. Our goal is dual: We address a fundamental biological question and investigate how drug-target binding shapes antibiotic action. We also create a tool that can predict antibiotic efficacy a priori. COMBAT requires measurable biochemical parameters of drug-target interaction and can be directly fitted to time-kill curves. As a proof-of-concept, we first investigate the utility of COMBAT with antibiotics belonging to the widely used quinolone class. COMBAT can predict antibiotic efficacy in clinical isolates for quinolones from drug affinity (R2>0.9). To further challenge our approach, we also do the reverse: estimate the magnitude of changes in drug-target binding based on antibiotic dose-response curves. We overexpress target molecules to infer changes in antibiotic-target binding from changes in antimicrobial efficacy of ciprofloxacin with 92-94% accuracy. To test the generality of our approach, we use the beta-lactam ampicillin to predict target molecule occupancy at MIC from antimicrobial action with 90% accuracy. Finally, we apply COMBAT to predict antibiotic concentrations that can select for resistance due to novel resistance mutations. Using ciprofloxacin and ampicillin as well defined test cases, our work demonstrates that drug-target binding is a major predictor of bacterial responses to antibiotics. This is surprising because antibiotic action involves many additional effects downstream of drug-target binding. In addition, COMBAT provides a framework to inform optimal antibiotic dose levels that maximize efficacy and minimize the rise of resistant mutants.

Cancer therapy: Attempt cure or manage drug resistance?

Cancer treatment is often aimed at achieving rapid, large, and sustained reductions in tumor burden. Even when these strong responses are achieved, treatment frequently fails due to the emergence of drug-resistant cell lineages. Over the last decade, a variety of authors have suggested that treatment should instead be aimed at containing resistance rather than curing the patient. That new philosophy poses a dilemma: how to choose between treatment regimens that can sometimes cure the patient and regimens that can delay progression but not cure the patient? Here, we investigate that choice. We define aspects of the evolution and ecology of tumor dynamics that determine whether it is better to attempt cure or to manage resistance. Even when it is possible to manage resistance and delay progression, this may not be the best treatment option. We show that the best option depends on how "cure" and "delaying progression" are prioritized, and how those priorities will vary among patients. We also discuss the difficulties of comparing in clinical trials traditional strategies that can sometimes successfully cure to alternative approaches where cure is not possible. More generally, where resistance management is possible, there are new challenges in communicating options to patients, setting treatment guidelines, and evaluating data from clinical trials.

Eco-evolutionary control of pathogens

Vaccinations and therapies targeting evolving pathogens aim to curb the pathogen and to steer it toward a controlled evolutionary state. Control is leveraged against the pathogen’s intrinsic evolutionary forces, which in turn, can drive an escape from control. Here, we analyze a simple model of control, in which a host produces antibodies that bind the pathogen. We show that the leverages of host (or external intervention) and pathogen are often highly imbalanced: an error threshold separates parameter regions of efficient control from regions of compromised control, where the pathogen retains the upper hand. Because control efficiency can be predicted from few measurable fitness parameters, our results establish a proof of principle how control theory can guide interventions against evolving pathogens.

Control can alter the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a target pathogen in two ways, by changing its population size and by directed evolution of new functions. Here, we develop a payoff model of eco-evolutionary control based on strategies of evolution, regulation, and computational forecasting. We apply this model to pathogen control by molecular antibody–antigen binding with a tunable dosage of antibodies. By analytical solution, we obtain optimal dosage protocols and establish a phase diagram with an error threshold delineating parameter regimes of successful and compromised control. The solution identifies few independently measurable fitness parameters that predict the outcome of control. Our analysis shows how optimal control strategies depend on mutation rate and population size of the pathogen, and how monitoring and computational forecasting affect protocols and efficiency of control. We argue that these results carry over to more general systems and are elements of an emerging eco-evolutionary control theory.

A survey of within-host and between-hosts modelling for antibiotic resistance

Antibiotic resistance is a global public health problem which has the attention of many stakeholders including clinicians, the pharmaceutical industry, researchers and policy makers. Despite the existence of many studies, control of resistance transmission has become a rather daunting task as the mechanisms underlying resistance evolution and development are not fully known. Here, we discuss the mechanisms underlying antibiotic resistance development, explore some treatment strategies used in the fight against antibiotic resistance and consider recent findings on collateral susceptibilities amongst antibiotic classes. Mathematical models have proved valuable for unravelling complex mechanisms in biology and such models have been used in the quest of understanding the development and spread of antibiotic resistance. While assessing the importance of such mathematical models, previous systematic reviews were interested in investigating whether these models follow good modelling practice. We focus on theoretical approaches used for resistance modelling considering both within and between host models as well as some pharmacodynamic and pharmakokinetic approaches and further examine the interaction between drugs and host immune response during treatment with antibiotics. Finally, we provide an outlook for future research aimed at modelling approaches for combating antibiotic resistance.

Effect of drug dose and timing of treatment on the emergence of drug resistance in vivo in a malaria model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There is a significant interest in identifying clinically effective drug treatment regimens that minimize the de novo evolution of antimicrobial resistance in pathogen populations. However, in vivo studies that vary treatment regimens and directly measure drug resistance evolution are rare. Here, we experimentally investigate the role of drug dose and treatment timing on resistance evolution in an animal model.

METHODOLOGY

In a series of experiments, we measured the emergence of atovaquone-resistant mutants of Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice, as a function of dose or timing of treatment (day post-infection) with the antimalarial drug atovaquone.

RESULTS

The likelihood of high-level resistance emergence increased with atovaquone dose. When varying the timing of treatment, treating either very early or late in infection reduced the risk of resistance. When we varied starting inoculum, resistance was more likely at intermediate inoculum sizes, which correlated with the largest population sizes at time of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

(i) Higher doses do not always minimize resistance emergence and can promote the emergence of high-level resistance. (ii) Altering treatment timing affects the risk of resistance emergence, likely due to the size of the population at the time of treatment, although we did not test the effect of immunity whose influence may have been important in the case of late treatment. (iii) Finding the 'right' dose and 'right' time to maximize clinical gains and limit resistance emergence can vary depending on biological context and was non-trivial even in our simplified experiments.

LAY SUMMARY

In a mouse model of malaria, higher drug doses led to increases in drug resistance. The timing of drug treatment also impacted resistance emergence, likely due to the size of the population at the time of treatment.

Antibiotics can be used to contain drug-resistant bacteria by maintaining sufficiently large sensitive populations

Standard infectious disease practice calls for aggressive drug treatment that rapidly eliminates the pathogen population before resistance can emerge. When resistance is absent, this elimination strategy can lead to complete cure. However, when resistance is already present, removing drug-sensitive cells as quickly as possible removes competitive barriers that may slow the growth of resistant cells. In contrast to the elimination strategy, a containment strategy aims to maintain the maximum tolerable number of pathogens, exploiting competitive suppression to achieve chronic control. Here, we combine in vitro experiments in computer-controlled bioreactors with mathematical modeling to investigate whether containment strategies can delay failure of antibiotic treatment regimens. To do so, we measured the "escape time" required for drug-resistant Escherichia coli populations to eclipse a threshold density maintained by adaptive antibiotic dosing. Populations containing only resistant cells rapidly escape the threshold density, but we found that matched resistant populations that also contain the maximum possible number of sensitive cells could be contained for significantly longer. The increase in escape time occurs only when the threshold density-the acceptable bacterial burden-is sufficiently high, an effect that mathematical models attribute to increased competition. The findings provide decisive experimental confirmation that maintaining the maximum number of sensitive cells can be used to contain resistance when the size of the population is sufficiently large.

Evolution of antibiotic cross-resistance and collateral sensitivity in Staphylococcus epidermidis using the mutant prevention concentration and the mutant selection window

In bacteria, evolution of resistance to one antibiotic is frequently associated with increased resistance (cross-resistance) or increased susceptibility (collateral sensitivity) to other antibiotics. Cross-resistance and collateral sensitivity are typically evaluated at the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). However, these susceptibility changes are not well characterized with respect to the mutant prevention concentration (MPC), the antibiotic concentration that prevents a single-step mutation from occurring. We measured the MIC and the MPC for Staphylococcus epidermidis and 14 single-drug resistant strains against seven antibiotics. We found that the MIC and the MPC were positively correlated but that this correlation weakened if cross-resistance did not evolve. If any type of resistance did evolve, the range of concentrations between the MIC and the MPC tended to shift right and widen. Similar patterns of cross-resistance and collateral sensitivity were observed at the MIC and MPC levels, though more symmetry was observed at the MIC level. Whole-genome sequencing revealed mutations in both known-target and nontarget genes. Moving forward, examining both the MIC and the MPC may lead to better predictions of evolutionary trajectories in antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

The role of windows of selection and windows of dominance in the evolution of insecticide resistance in human disease vectors

Persistent insecticides sprayed onto house walls, and incorporated into insecticide-treated bednets, provide long-acting, cost-effective control of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and leishmaniasis. The high concentrations that occur immediately postdeployment may kill both resistant and susceptible insects. However, insecticide concentration, and therefore killing ability, declines in the months after deployment. As concentrations decline, resistant insects start to survive, while susceptible insects are still killed. The period of time after deployment, within which the mortality of resistant individuals is lower than that of susceptible ones, has been termed the "window of selection" in other contexts. It is recognized as driving resistance in bacteria and malaria parasites, both of which are predominantly haploid. We argue that paying more attention to these mortality differences can help understand the evolution of insecticide resistance. Because insects are diploid, resistance encoded by single genes generates heterozygotes. This gives the potential for a narrower "window of dominance," within the window of selection, where heterozygote mortality is lower than that of susceptible homozygotes. We explore the general properties of windows of selection and dominance in driving resistance. We quantify their likely effect using data from new laboratory experiments and published data from the laboratory and field. These windows can persist months or years after insecticide deployments. Differential mortalities of resistant, susceptible and heterozygous genotypes, after public health deployments, constitute a major challenge to controlling resistance. Greater attention to mortality differences by genotype would inform strategies to reduce the evolution of resistance to existing and new insecticides.

Antibiotic interactions shape short-term evolution of resistance in E. faecalis

Antibiotic combinations are increasingly used to combat bacterial infections. Multidrug therapies are a particularly important treatment option for E. faecalis, an opportunistic pathogen that contributes to high-inoculum infections such as infective endocarditis. While numerous synergistic drug combinations for E. faecalis have been identified, much less is known about how different combinations impact the rate of resistance evolution. In this work, we use high-throughput laboratory evolution experiments to quantify adaptation in growth rate and drug resistance of E. faecalis exposed to drug combinations exhibiting different classes of interactions, ranging from synergistic to suppressive. We identify a wide range of evolutionary behavior, including both increased and decreased rates of growth adaptation, depending on the specific interplay between drug interaction and drug resistance profiles. For example, selection in a dual β-lactam combination leads to accelerated growth adaptation compared to selection with the individual drugs, even though the resulting resistance profiles are nearly identical. On the other hand, populations evolved in an aminoglycoside and β-lactam combination exhibit decreased growth adaptation and resistant profiles that depend on the specific drug concentrations. We show that the main qualitative features of these evolutionary trajectories can be explained by simple rescaling arguments that correspond to geometric transformations of the two-drug growth response surfaces measured in ancestral cells. The analysis also reveals multiple examples where resistance profiles selected by drug combinations are nearly growth-optimized along a contour connecting profiles selected by the component drugs. Our results highlight trade-offs between drug interactions and resistance profiles during the evolution of multi-drug resistance and emphasize evolutionary benefits and disadvantages of particular drug pairs targeting enterococci.

Contrasting the impact of cytotoxic and cytostatic drug therapies on tumour progression

A tumour grows when the total division (birth) rate of its cells exceeds their total mortality (death) rate. The capability for uncontrolled growth within the host tissue is acquired via the accumulation of driver mutations which enable the tumour to progress through various hallmarks of cancer. We present a mathematical model of the penultimate stage in such a progression. We assume the tumour has reached the limit of its present growth potential due to cell competition that either results in total birth rate reduction or death rate increase. The tumour can then progress to the final stage by either seeding a metastasis or acquiring a driver mutation. We influence the ensuing evolutionary dynamics by cytotoxic (increasing death rate) or cytostatic (decreasing birth rate) therapy while keeping the effect of the therapy on net growth reduction constant. Comparing the treatments head to head we derive conditions for choosing optimal therapy. We quantify how the choice and the related gain of optimal therapy depends on driver mutation, metastasis, intrinsic cell birth and death rates, and the details of cell competition. We show that detailed understanding of the cell population dynamics could be exploited in choosing the right mode of treatment with substantial therapy gains.

Cells and organisms evolve to better survive in their environments and to adapt to new challenges. Such dynamics manifest in a particularly problematic way with the evolution of drug resistance, which is increasingly recognized as a key challenge for global health. Thus, developing therapy paradigms that factor in evolutionary dynamics is an important goal. Using a minimal mathematical model of a cancer cell population we contrast cytotoxic (increasing death rate) and cytostatic (decreasing birth rate) treatments while keeping the effect of the therapy on the net growth reduction constant. We then quantify how the choice and the related gain of optimal therapy depends on driver mutation, metastasis, intrinsic cell birth and death rates and the details of cell competition. Most importantly, we identify specific cell population dynamics under which a certain treatment could be significantly better than the alternative.

The effect of spatiotemporal antibiotic inhomogeneities on the evolution of resistance

Combating the evolution of widespread antibiotic resistance is one of the most pressing challenges facing modern medicine. Recent research has demonstrated that the evolution of pathogens with high levels of resistance can be accelerated by spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in antibiotic concentration, which frequently arise in patients and the environment. Strategies to predict and counteract the effects of such inhomogeneities will be critical in the fight against resistance. In this paper we develop a mechanistic framework for modelling the adaptive evolution of resistance in the presence of spatiotemporal antibiotic concentrations, which treats the adaptive process as an interaction between two mutually orthogonal forces; the first returns cells to their wild-type state in the absence of antibiotic selection, and the second selects for increased coping ability in the presence of an antibiotic. We apply our model to investigate laboratory adaptation experiments, and then extend it to consider the case in which multiple strategies for resistance undergo competitive evolution.

Mosquitoes as a feasible sentinel group for anti-malarial resistance surveillance by Next Generation Sequencing of Plasmodium falciparum

Background

Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance surveillance is key to successful disease control and eradication. Contemporary methods that only allow determination of prevalence of resistance are expensive, time consuming and require ethical considerations. A newer method involving Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) permits obtaining frequency of resistance while allowing to detect minority variants in mixed infections. Here, NGS was tested for P. falciparum resistance marker detection in mosquito samples as a feasible and suitable alternative for molecular resistance surveillance. Anopheles funestus were collected in southern Mozambique using CDC light traps and manual collections. DNA was extracted from either whole mosquito, head-thorax and abdomen separately or pools of five mosquitoes. These samples were screened for P. falciparum and if positive for k13, pfcrt, pfmdr1, pfdhps and pfdhfr mutations related to anti-malarial drug resistance with Sanger sequencing and NGS.

Results

Among the 846 samples screened for P. falciparum, 122 were positive by 18S ssrDNA qPCR with an infection rate of 23.6%. No mutations were observed for k13 and pfcrt72-76 and almost zero for pfmdr86, but quintuple pfdhfr/pfdhps mutations were near fixation and about half of the isolates contained the pfmdr184F polymorphism. Similar allele frequencies of resistance markers were estimated with NGS in comparison with the prevalence of markers obtained with the gold standard Sanger sequencing.

Conclusions

Pooled deep sequencing of P. falciparum isolates extracted from mosquitoes is a promising, efficient and cost-effective method to quantify allele frequencies at population level which allows to detect known and unknown markers of resistance in single and mixed infections in a timelier manner. Using mosquitoes as sentinel group and focusing on allele frequency opposed to prevalence, permits active surveillance across a more homogeneous geographical range.

Diffusion-driven enhancement of the antibiotic resistance selection window

The current crisis of antimicrobial resistance in clinically relevant pathogens has highlighted our limited understanding of the ecological and evolutionary forces that drive drug resistance adaptation. For instance, although human tissues are highly heterogeneous, most of our mechanistic understanding about antibiotic resistance evolution is based on constant and well-mixed environmental conditions. A consequence of considering spatial heterogeneity is that, even if antibiotics are prescribed at high dosages, the penetration of drug molecules through tissues inevitably produces antibiotic gradients, exposing bacterial populations to a range of selective pressures and generating a dynamic fitness landscape that changes in space and time. In this paper, we will use a combination of mathematical modelling and computer simulations to study the population dynamics of susceptible and resistant strains competing for resources in a network of micro-environments with varying degrees of connectivity. Our main result is that highly connected environments increase diffusion of drug molecules, enabling resistant phenotypes to colonize a larger number of spatial locations. We validated this theoretical result by culturing fluorescently labelled Escherichia coli in 3D-printed devices that allow us to control the rate of diffusion of antibiotics between neighbouring compartments and quantify the spatio-temporal distribution of resistant and susceptible bacterial cells.

Aggressive or moderate drug therapy for infectious diseases? Trade-offs between different treatment goals at the individual and population levels

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the major public health threats of the 21st century. There is a pressing need to adopt more efficient treatment strategies in order to prevent the emergence and spread of resistant strains. The common approach is to treat patients with high drug doses, both to clear the infection quickly and to reduce the risk of de novo resistance. Recently, several studies have argued that, at least in some cases, low-dose treatments could be more suitable to reduce the within-host emergence of antimicrobial resistance. However, the choice of a drug dose may have consequences at the population level, which has received little attention so far. Here, we study the influence of the drug dose on resistance and disease management at the host and population levels. We develop a nested two-strain model and unravel trade-offs in treatment benefits between an individual and the community. We use several measures to evaluate the benefits of any dose choice. Two measures focus on the emergence of resistance, at the host level and at the population level. The other two focus on the overall treatment success: the outbreak probability and the disease burden. We find that different measures can suggest different dosing strategies. In particular, we identify situations where low doses minimize the risk of emergence of resistance at the individual level, while high or intermediate doses prove most beneficial to improve the treatment efficiency or even to reduce the risk of resistance in the population.

Eco-evolutionary community turnover following environmental change

Co-occurring species often differ in intraspecific genetic diversity, which in turn can affect adaptation in response to environmental change. Specifically, the simultaneous evolutionary responses of co-occurring species to temporal environmental change may influence community dynamics. Local adaptation along environmental gradients combined with gene flow can enhance genetic diversity of traits within populations. Quantitative genetic theory shows that having greater gene flow results in (a) lower equilibrium population size due to maladaptive immigrant genotypes (migration load), but (b) faster adaptation to changing environments. Here, I build off this theory to study community dynamics of locally adapted species in response to temporal environmental changes akin to warming temperatures. Although an abrupt environmental change leaves all species initially maladapted, high gene flow species subsequently adapt faster due to greater genetic diversity. As a result, species can transiently reverse their relative abundances, but sometimes only after long lag periods. If constant temporal environmental change is applied, the community exhibits a shift toward stable dominance by species with intermediate gene flow. Notably, fast-adapting high gene flow species can increase in absolute abundance under environmental change (although often only for a transient period) because the change suppresses superior competitors with lower gene flow. This eco-evolutionary competitive release stabilizes ecosystem function. The eco-evolutionary community turnover studied here parallels the purely ecological successional dynamics following disturbances. My results demonstrate how interspecific variation in life history can have far-reaching impacts on eco-evolutionary community response to environmental change.