Biodiversity tracks temperature over time

Cenozoic history of the tropical marine biodiversity hotspot

The region with the highest marine biodiversity on our planet is known as the Coral Triangle or Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA)1,2. Its enormous biodiversity has long attracted the interest of biologists; however, the detailed evolutionary history of the IAA biodiversity hotspot remains poorly understood3. Here we present a high-resolution reconstruction of the Cenozoic diversity history of the IAA by inferring speciation-extinction dynamics using a comprehensive fossil dataset. We found that the IAA has exhibited a unidirectional diversification trend since about 25 million years ago, following a roughly logistic increase until a diversity plateau beginning about 2.6 million years ago. The growth of diversity was primarily controlled by diversity dependency and habitat size, and also facilitated by the alleviation of thermal stress after 13.9 million years ago. Distinct net diversification peaks were recorded at about 25, 20, 16, 12 and 5 million years ago, which were probably related to major tectonic events in addition to climate transitions. Key biogeographic processes had far-reaching effects on the IAA diversity as shown by the long-term waning of the Tethyan descendants versus the waxing of cosmopolitan and IAA taxa. Finally, it seems that the absence of major extinctions and the Cenozoic cooling have been essential in making the IAA the richest marine biodiversity hotspot on Earth.

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

Poleward migration of tropical corals inhibited by future trends of seawater temperature and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation

Poleward range expansion of marine organisms is commonly attributed to anthropogenic ocean warming. However, the extent to which a single species can migrate poleward remains unclear. In this study, we used molecular data to examine the current distribution of the Pocillopora damicornis species complex in Taiwan waters and applied niche modeling to predict its potential range through the end of the 21st Century. The P. damicornis species complex is widespread across shallow, tropical and subtropical waters of the Indo-Pacific regions. Our results revealed that populations from subtropical nonreefal coral communities are P. damicornis, whose native geographical ranges are approximately between 23°N and 35°N. In contrast, those from tropical reefs are P. acuta. Our analysis of 50 environmental data layers demonstrated that the concentrations of CaCO3 polymorphs had the greatest contributions to the distributions of the two species. Future projections under intermediate shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and very high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions showed that while sea surface temperature (SST) isotherms would shift northwards, saturation isolines of two CaCO3 polymorphs, calcite (Ωcal) and aragonite (Ωarag), would shift southwards by 2100. Subsequent predictions of future suitable habitats under those conditions indicated that distinct delimitation of geographical ranges for the two species would persist, and neither would extend beyond its native geographical zones, indicating that tropical Taiwan waters are the northern limit for P. acuta. In contrast, subtropical waters are the southern limit for P. damicornis. We concluded that the decline in CaCO3 saturation would make high latitudes less inhabitable, which could be one of the boundary elements that limit poleward range expansion driven by rising SSTs and preserve the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) on Earth. Consequently, poleward migration of tropical reef corals to cope with warming oceans should be reevaluated.

Unveiling the underlying drivers of Phanerozoic marine diversification

In investigating global patterns of biodiversity through deep time, many large-scale drivers of diversification have been proposed, both biotic and abiotic. However, few robust conclusions about these hypothesized effectors or their roles have been drawn. Here, we use a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework to test for the presence of underlying drivers of diversification patterns before examining specific hypothesized drivers. Using a global dataset of observations of skeletonized marine fossils, we infer origination, extinction and sampling rates (collectively called fossil time series) throughout the Phanerozoic using a capture-mark-recapture approach. Using linear SDEs, we then compare models including and excluding hidden (i.e. unmeasured) drivers of these fossil time series. We find evidence of large-scale underlying drivers of marine Phanerozoic diversification rates and present quantitative characterizations of these. We then test whether changing global temperature, sea-level, marine sediment area or continental fragmentation could act as drivers of the fossil time series. We show that it is unlikely any of these four abiotic factors are the hidden drivers we identified, though there is evidence for correlative links between sediment area and origination/extinction rates. Our characterization of the hidden drivers of Phanerozoic diversification and sampling will aid in the search for their ultimate identities.

Natural warming differentiates communities and increases diversity in deep-sea Ridge Flank Hydrothermal Systems

Ridge Flank Hydrothermal Systems have discrete pockets of fluid discharge that mimic climate-induced ocean warming. Unlike traditional hydrothermal fluids, those discharged by Ridge Flank Hydrothermal Systems have a chemical composition indistinguishable from background water, enabling evaluation of the effect of warming temperature. Here we link temperature and terrain variables to community composition and biodiversity by combining remotely operated vehicle images of vent and non-vent zone communities with associated environmental variables. We show overall differences in composition, family richness, and biodiversity between zones, though richness and diversity were only significantly greater in vent zones at one location. Temperature was a contributing factor to observed greater biodiversity near vent zones. Overall, our results suggest that warming in the deep sea will affect species composition and diversity. However, due to the diverse outcomes projected for ocean warming, additional research is necessary to forecast the impacts of ocean warming on deep-sea ecosystems.

Disparity of cycad leaves dispels the living fossil metaphor

The living fossil metaphor is tightly linked with the cycads. This group of gymnosperms is supposed to be characterised by long-term morphological stasis, particularly after their peak of diversity and disparity in the Jurassic. However, no formal test of this hypothesis exists. Here, we use a recent phylogenetic framework and an improved character matrix to reconstruct the Disparity Through Time for cycad leaves using a Principal Coordinate Analysis and employing Pre-Ordination Ancestral State Reconstruction to test the impact of sampling on the results. Our analysis shows that the cycad leaf morsphospace expanded up to the present, with numerous shifts in its general positioning, independently of sampling biases. Moreover, they also show that Zamiaceae expanded rapidly in the Early Cretaceous and continued to expand up to the present, while now-extinct clades experienced a slow contraction from their peak in the Triassic. We also show that rates of evolution were constantly high up to the Early Cretaceous, and then experienced a slight decrease in the Paleogene, followed by a Neogene acceleration. These results show a much more dynamic history for cycads, and suggest that the 'living fossil' metaphor is actually a hindrance to our understanding of their macroevolution.

Idea engines: Unifying innovation & obsolescence from markets & genetic evolution to science

Innovation and obsolescence describe dynamics of ever-churning and adapting social and biological systems, concepts that encompass field-specific formulations. We formalize the connection with a reduced model of the dynamics of the "space of the possible" (e.g., technologies, mutations, theories) to which agents (e.g., firms, organisms, scientists) couple as they grow, die, and replicate. We predict three regimes: The space is finite, ever growing, or a Schumpeterian dystopia in which obsolescence drives the system to collapse. We reveal a critical boundary at which the space of the possible fluctuates dramatically in size, displaying recurrent periods of minimal and of veritable diversity. When the space is finite, corresponding to physically realizable systems, we find surprising structure. This structure predicts a taxonomy for the density of agents near and away from the innovative frontier that we compare with distributions of firm productivity, COVID diversity, and citation rates for scientific publications. Our minimal model derived from first principles aligns with empirical examples, implying a follow-the-leader dynamic in firm cost efficiency and biological evolution, whereas scientific progress reflects consensus that waits on old ideas to go obsolete. Our theory introduces a fresh and empirically testable framework for unifying innovation and obsolescence across fields.

Drivers of the artiodactyl turnover in insular western Europe at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition

Simultaneously investigating the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on diversity dynamics is essential to understand the evolutionary history of clades. The Grande Coupure corresponds to a major faunal turnover at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) (~34.1 to 33.55 Mya) and is defined in western Europe as an extinction of insular European mammals coupled with the arrival of crown clades from Asia. Here, we focused on the species-rich group of endemic European artiodactyls to determine the drivers of the Grande Coupure during the major environmental disruptions at the EOT. Using Bayesian birth-death models, we analyzed an original high-resolution fossil dataset (90 species, >2,100 occurrences) from southwestern France (Quercy area) and estimated the regional diversification and diversity dynamics of endemic and immigrant artiodactyls. We show that the endemic artiodactyl radiation was mainly related to the Eocene tropical conditions, combined with biotic controls on speciation and clade-related diversity dependence. We further highlight that the major environmental changes at the transition (77% of species became extinct) and the concurrent increase in seasonality in Europe during the Oligocene were likely the main drivers of their decline. Surprisingly, our results do not support the widely-held hypothesis of active competition between endemic and immigrant artiodactyls but rather suggest a passive or opportunistic replacement by immigrants, which is further supported by morphological clustering of specific ecological traits across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Our analyses provide insights into the evolutionary and ecological processes driving the diversification and decline of mammalian clades during a major biological and climatic crisis.

A novel method for identifying key genes in macroevolution based on deep learning with attention mechanism

Macroevolution can be regarded as the result of evolutionary changes of synergistically acting genes. Unfortunately, the importance of these genes in macroevolution is difficult to assess and hence the identification of macroevolutionary key genes is a major challenge in evolutionary biology. In this study, we designed various word embedding libraries of natural language processing (NLP) considering the multiple mechanisms of evolutionary genomics. A novel method (IKGM) based on three types of attention mechanisms (domain attention, kmer attention and fused attention) were proposed to calculate the weights of different genes in macroevolution. Taking 34 species of diurnal butterflies and nocturnal moths in Lepidoptera as an example, we identified a few of key genes with high weights, which annotated to the functions of circadian rhythms, sensory organs, as well as behavioral habits etc. This study not only provides a novel method to identify the key genes of macroevolution at the genomic level, but also helps us to understand the microevolution mechanisms of diurnal butterflies and nocturnal moths in Lepidoptera.

Bayesian analyses indicate bivalves did not drive the downfall of brachiopods following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Certain times of major biotic replacement have often been interpreted as broadly competitive, mediated by innovation in the succeeding clades. A classic example was the switch from brachiopods to bivalves as major seabed organisms following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME), ~252 million years ago. This was attributed to competitive exclusion of brachiopods by the better adapted bivalves or simply to the fact that brachiopods had been hit especially hard by the PTME. The brachiopod-bivalve switch is emblematic of the global turnover of marine faunas from Palaeozoic-type to Modern-type triggered by the PTME. Here, using Bayesian analyses, we find that unexpectedly the two clades displayed similar large-scale trends of diversification before the Jurassic. Insight from a multivariate birth-death model shows that the extinction of major brachiopod clades during the PTME set the stage for the brachiopod-bivalve switch, with differential responses to high ocean temperatures post-extinction further facilitating their displacement by bivalves. Our study strengthens evidence that brachiopods and bivalves were not competitors over macroevolutionary time scales, with extinction events and environmental stresses shaping their divergent fates.

Variations in climate habitability parameters and their effect on Earth's biosphere during the Phanerozoic Eon

Essential insights on the characterization and quality of a detectable biosphere are gained by analyzing the effects of its environmental parameters. We compiled environmental and biological properties of the Phanerozoic Eon from various published data sets and conducted a correlation analysis to assess variations in parameters relevant to the habitability of Earth's biosphere. We showed that environmental parameters such as oxygen, global average surface temperatures, runoff rates and carbon dioxide are interrelated and play a key role in the changes of biomass and biodiversity. We showed that there were several periods with a highly thriving biosphere, with one even surpassing present day biodiversity and biomass. Those periods were characterized by increased oxygen levels and global runoff rates, as well as moderate global average surface temperatures, as long as no large or rapid positive and/or negative temperature excursions occurred. High oxygen contents are diagnostic of biomass production by continental plant life. We find that exceptionally high oxygen levels can at least in one instance compensate for decreased relative humidities, providing an even more habitable environment compared to today. Beyond Earth, these results will help us to understand how environmental parameters affect biospheres on extrasolar planets and guide us in our search for extraterrestrial life.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Life rather than climate influences diversity at scales greater than 40 million years

The diversity of life on Earth is controlled by hierarchical processes that interact over wide ranges of timescales¹. Here, we consider the megaclimate regime² at scales ≥1 million years (Myr). We focus on determining the domains of 'wandering' stochastic Earth system processes ('Court Jester'³) and stabilizing biotic interactions that induce diversity dependence of fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates ('Red Queen'⁴). Using state-of-the-art multiscale Haar and cross-Haar fluctuation analyses, we analysed the global genus-level Phanerozoic marine animal Paleobiology Database record of extinction rates (E), origination rates (O) and diversity (D) as well as sea water palaeotemperatures (T). Over the entire observed range from several million years to several hundred million years, we found that the fluctuations of T, E and O showed time-scaling behaviour. The megaclimate was characterized by positive scaling exponents-it is therefore apparently unstable. E and O are also scaling but with negative exponents-stable behaviour that is biotically mediated. For D, there were two regimes with a crossover at critical timescale [Formula: see text] ≈ 40 Myr. For shorter timescales, D exhibited nearly the same positive scaling as the megaclimate palaeotemperatures, whereas for longer timescales it tracks the scaling of macroevolutionary rates. At scales of at least [Formula: see text] there is onset of diversity dependence of E and O, probably enabled by mixing and synchronization (globalization) of the biota by geodispersal ('Geo-Red Queen').

A viewpoint on ecological and evolutionary study of plant thermal performance curves in a warming world

We can understand the ecology and evolution of plant thermal niches through thermal performance curves (TPCs), which are unimodal, continuous reaction norms of performance across a temperature gradient. Though there are numerous plant TPC studies, plants remain under-represented in syntheses of TPCs. Further, few studies quantify plant TPCs from fitness-based measurements (i.e. growth, survival and reproduction at the individual level and above), limiting our ability to draw conclusions from the existing literature about plant thermal adaptation. We describe recent plant studies that use a fitness-based TPC approach to test fundamental ecological and evolutionary hypotheses, some of which have uncovered key drivers of climate change responses. Then, we outline three conceptual questions in ecology and evolutionary biology for future plant TPC studies: (i) Do populations and species harbour genetic variation for TPCs? (ii) Do plant TPCs exhibit plastic responses to abiotic and biotic factors? (iii) Do fitness-based TPCs scale up to population-level thermal niches? Moving forward, plant ecologists and evolutionary biologists can capitalize on TPCs to understand how plasticity and adaptation will influence plant responses to climate change.

Biotic and Abiotic Controls on the Phanerozoic History of Marine Animal Biodiversity

During the past 541 million years, marine animals underwent three intervals of diversification (early Cambrian, Ordovician, Cretaceous–Cenozoic) separated by nondirectional fluctuation, suggesting diversity-dependent dynamics with the equilibrium diversity shifting through time. Changes in factors such as shallow-marine habitat area and climate appear to have modulated the nondirectional fluctuations. Directional increases in diversity are best explained by evolutionary innovations in marine animals and primary producers coupled with stepwise increases in the availability of food and oxygen. Increasing intensity of biotic interactions such as predation and disturbance may have led to positive feedbacks on diversification as ecosystems became more complex. Important areas for further research include improving the geographic coverage and temporal resolution of paleontological data sets, as well as deepening our understanding of Earth system evolution and the physiological and ecological traits that modulated organismal responses to environmental change.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time. Furthermore, a focus on global diversity lumps the signal of ecological drivers at local and regional scales with the signal of global-scale processes, including variation in the distribution of environments and in provincialism (the extent of subdivision into distinct biogeographic regions). These signals cannot be untangled by studying global diversity measures alone. These conceptual and empirical concerns necessitate a shift away from the study of 'biodiversity through time' and towards the study of 'biodiversity across time and space'. Spatially explicit investigations, including analyses of local- and regional-scale datasets, are central to achieving this and allow analysis of geographic scale, location and the environmental parameters directly experienced by organisms. So far, research in this area has revealed the stability of species richness variation among environments through time, and the potential climatic and Earth-system drivers of changing biodiversity. Ultimately, this research program promises to address key questions regarding the assembly of biodiversity, and the contributions of local-, regional- and global-scale processes to the diversification of life on Earth.

Deep-time climate legacies affect origination rates of marine genera

Biodiversity dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay between current conditions and historic legacy. The interaction of short- and long-term climate change may mask the true relationship of evolutionary responses to climate change if not specifically accounted for. These paleoclimate interactions have been demonstrated for extinction risk and biodiversity change, but their importance for origination dynamics remains untested. Here, we show that origination probability in marine fossil genera is strongly affected by paleoclimate interactions. Overall, origination probability increases by 27.8% [95% CI (27.4%, 28.3%)] when a short-term cooling adds to a long-term cooling trend. This large effect is consistent through time and all studied groups. The mechanisms of the detected effect might be manifold but are likely connected to increased allopatric speciation with eustatic sea level drop caused by sustained global cooling. We tested this potential mechanism through which paleoclimate interactions can act on origination rates by additionally examining a proxy for habitat fragmentation. This proxy, continental fragmentation, has a similar effect on origination rates as paleoclimate interactions, supporting the importance of allopatric speciation through habitat fragmentation in the deep-time fossil record. The identified complex nature of paleoclimate interactions might explain contradictory conclusions on the relationship between temperature and origination in the previous literature. Our results highlight the need to account for complex interactions in evolutionary studies both between and among biotic and abiotic factors.

Increase in marine provinciality over the last 250 million years governed more by climate change than plate tectonics

Amidst long-term fluctuations of the abiotic environment, the degree to which life organizes into distinct biogeographic provinces (provinciality) can reveal the fundamental drivers of global biodiversity. Our understanding of present-day biogeography implies that changes in the distribution of continents across climatic zones have predictable effects on habitat distribution, dispersal barriers and the evolution of provinciality. To assess marine provinciality through the Phanerozoic, here we (a) simulate provinces based on palaeogeographic reconstructions and global climate models and (b) contrast them with empirically derived provinces that we define using network analysis of fossil occurrences. Simulated and empirical patterns match reasonably well and consistently suggest a greater than 15% increase in provinciality since the Mesozoic era. Although both factors played a role, the simulations imply that the effect of the latitudinal temperature gradient has been twice as important in determining marine provinciality as continental configuration.

Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.

Dinosaur biodiversity declined well before the asteroid impact, influenced by ecological and environmental pressures

The question why non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago (Ma) remains unresolved because of the coarseness of the fossil record. A sudden extinction caused by an asteroid is the most accepted hypothesis but it is debated whether dinosaurs were in decline or not before the impact. We analyse the speciation-extinction dynamics for six key dinosaur families, and find a decline across dinosaurs, where diversification shifted to a declining-diversity pattern ~76 Ma. We investigate the influence of ecological and physical factors, and find that the decline of dinosaurs was likely driven by global climate cooling and herbivorous diversity drop. The latter is likely due to hadrosaurs outcompeting other herbivores. We also estimate that extinction risk is related to species age during the decline, suggesting a lack of evolutionary novelty or adaptation to changing environments. These results support an environmentally driven decline of non-avian dinosaurs well before the asteroid impact.

Evolutionary drivers, morphological evolution and diversity dynamics of a surviving mammal clade: cainotherioids at the Eocene-Oligocene transition

The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) represents a period of global environmental changes particularly marked in Europe and coincides with a dramatic biotic turnover. Here, using an exceptional fossil preservation, we document and analyse the diversity dynamics of a mammal clade, Cainotherioidea (Artiodactyla), that survived the EOT and radiated rapidly immediately after. We infer their diversification history from Quercy Konzentrat-Lagerstätte (south-west France) at the species level using Bayesian birth-death models. We show that cainotherioid diversity fluctuated through time, with extinction events at the EOT and in the late Oligocene, and a major speciation burst in the early Oligocene. The latter is in line with our finding that cainotherioids had a high morphological adaptability following environmental changes throughout the EOT, which probably played a key role in the survival and evolutionary success of this clade in the aftermath. Speciation is positively associated with temperature and continental fragmentation in a time-continuous way, while extinction seems to synchronize with environmental change in a punctuated way. Within-clade interactions negatively affected the cainotherioid diversification, while inter-clade competition might explain their final decline during the late Oligocene. Our results provide a detailed dynamic picture of the evolutionary history of a mammal clade in a context of global change.

Elevated temperature increases genome-wide selection on de novo mutations

Adaptation in new environments depends on the amount of genetic variation available for evolution, and the efficacy by which natural selection discriminates among this variation. However, whether some ecological factors reveal more genetic variation, or impose stronger selection pressures than others, is typically not known. Here, we apply the enzyme kinetic theory to show that rising global temperatures are predicted to intensify natural selection throughout the genome by increasing the effects of DNA sequence variation on protein stability. We test this prediction by (i) estimating temperature-dependent fitness effects of induced mutations in seed beetles adapted to ancestral or elevated temperature, and (ii) calculate 100 paired selection estimates on mutations in benign versus stressful environments from unicellular and multicellular organisms. Environmental stress per se did not increase mean selection on de novo mutation, suggesting that the cost of adaptation does not generally increase in new ecological settings to which the organism is maladapted. However, elevated temperature increased the mean strength of selection on genome-wide polymorphism, signified by increases in both mutation load and mutational variance in fitness. These results have important implications for genetic diversity gradients and the rate and repeatability of evolution under climate change.

Impact of Environmental Factors on Stilbene Biosynthesis

Stilbenes are a small family of polyphenolic secondary metabolites that can be found in several distantly related plant species. These compounds act as phytoalexins, playing a crucial role in plant defense against phytopathogens, as well as being involved in the adaptation of plants to abiotic environmental factors. Among stilbenes, trans-resveratrol is certainly the most popular and extensively studied for its health properties. In recent years, an increasing number of stilbene compounds were subjected to investigations concerning their bioactivity. This review presents the most updated knowledge of the stilbene biosynthetic pathway, also focusing on the role of several environmental factors in eliciting stilbenes biosynthesis. The effects of ultraviolet radiation, visible light, ultrasonication, mechanical stress, salt stress, drought, temperature, ozone, and biotic stress are reviewed in the context of enhancing stilbene biosynthesis, both in planta and in plant cell and organ cultures. This knowledge may shed some light on stilbene biological roles and represents a useful tool to increase the accumulation of these valuable compounds.

Causes of global extinctions in the history of life: facts and hypotheses

Paleontologists define global extinctions on Earth as a loss of about three-quarters of plant and animal species over a relatively short period of time. At least five global extinctions are documented in the Phanerozoic fossil record (~500-million-year period): ~65, 200, 260, 380, and 440 million years ago. In addition, there is evidence of global extinctions in earlier periods of life on Earth - during the Late Cambrian (~500 million years ago) and Ediacaran periods (more than 540 million years ago). There is still no common opinion on the causes of their occurrence. The current study is a systematized review of the data on recorded extinctions of complex life forms on Earth from the moment of their occurrence during the Ediacaran period to the modern period. The review discusses possible causes for mass extinctions in the light of the influence of abiogenic factors, planetary or astronomical, and the consequences of their actions. We evaluate the pros and cons of the hypothesis on the presence of periodicity in the extinction of Phanerozoic marine biota. Strong evidence that allows us to hypothesize that additional mechanisms associated with various internal biotic factors are responsible for the emergence of extinctions in the evolution of complex life forms is discussed. Developing the idea of the internal causes of periodicity and discontinuity in evolution, we propose our own original hypothesis, according to which the bistability phenomenon underlies the complex dynamics of the biota development, which is manifested in the form of global extinctions. The bistability phenomenon arises only in ecosystems with predominant sexual reproduction. Our hypothesis suggests that even in the absence of global abiotic catastrophes, extinctions of biota would occur anyway. However, our hypothesis does not exclude the possibility that in different periods of the Earth's history the biota was subjected to powerful external influences that had a significant impact on its further development, which is reflected in the Earth's fossil record.

The spatial structure of Phanerozoic marine animal diversity

The global fossil record of marine animals has fueled long-standing debates about diversity change through time and the drivers of this change. However, the fossil record is not truly global. It varies considerably in geographic scope and in the sampling of environments among intervals of geological time. We account for this variability using a spatially explicit approach to quantify regional-scale diversity through the Phanerozoic. Among-region variation in diversity is comparable to variation through time, and much of this is explained by environmental factors, particularly the extent of reefs. By contrast, influential hypotheses of diversity change through time, including sustained long-term increases, have little explanatory power. Modeling the spatial structure of the fossil record transforms interpretations of Phanerozoic diversity patterns and their macroevolutionary explanations. This necessitates a refocus of deep-time diversification studies.

Recurrent genome duplication events likely contributed to both the ancient and recent rise of ferns

Ferns, the second largest group of vascular plants, originated ~400 million years ago (Mya). They became dominant in the ancient Earth landscape before the angiosperms and are still important in current ecosystems. Many ferns have exceptionally high chromosome numbers, possibly resulting from whole-genome duplications (WGDs). However, WGDs have not been investigated molecularly across fern diversity. Here we detected and dated fern WGDs using a phylogenomic approach and by calculating synonymous substitution rates (Ks). We also investigated a possible correlation between proposed WGDs and shifts in species diversification rates. We identified 19 WGDs: three ancient events along the fern phylogenetic backbone that are shared by 66%-97% of extant ferns, with additional lineage-specific WGDs for eight orders, providing strong evidence for recurring genome duplications across fern evolutionary history. We also observed similar Ks peak values for more than half of these WGDs, with multiple WGDs occurring close to the Cretaceous (~145-66 Mya). Despite the repeated WGD events, the biodiversity of ferns declined during the Cretaceous, implying that other factors probably contributed to the floristic turnover from ferns to angiosperms. This study provides molecular evidence for recurring WGDs in ferns and offers important clues to the genomic evolutionary history of ferns.

A high-resolution summary of Cambrian to Early Triassic marine invertebrate biodiversity

One great challenge in understanding the history of life is resolving the influence of environmental change on biodiversity. Simulated annealing and genetic algorithms were used to synthesize data from 11,000 marine fossil species, collected from more than 3000 stratigraphic sections, to generate a new Cambrian to Triassic biodiversity curve with an imputed temporal resolution of 26 ± 14.9 thousand years. This increased resolution clarifies the timing of known diversification and extinction events. Comparative analysis suggests that partial pressure of carbon dioxide (Pco2) is the only environmental factor that seems to display a secular pattern similar to that of biodiversity, but this similarity was not confirmed when autocorrelation within that time series was analyzed by detrending. These results demonstrate that fossil data can provide the temporal and taxonomic resolutions necessary to test (paleo)biological hypotheses at a level of detail approaching those of long-term ecological analyses.

Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

Understanding heterogeneity in species richness between closely related clades is a key research question in ecology and evolutionary biology. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to interpret such diversity contrasts across the tree of life, with most studies focusing on speciation rates to explain clades' evolutionary radiations, while often neglecting extinction rates. Here we study a notorious biological model as exemplified by the sister relationships between mackerel sharks (Lamniformes, 15 extant species) and ground sharks (Carcharhiniformes, ∼290 extant species). Using a comprehensive fossil dataset, we found that the diversity dynamics of lamniforms waxed and waned following repeated cycles of radiation phases and declining phases. Radiation phases peaked up to 3 times the current diversity in the early Late Cretaceous. In the last 20 million years, the group declined to its present-day diversity. Along with a higher extinction risk for young species, we further show that this declining pattern is likely attributed to a combination of abiotic and biotic factors, with a cooling-driven extinction (negative correlation between temperature and extinction) and clade competition with some ground sharks. Competition from multiple clades successively drove the demise and replacement of mackerel sharks due to a failure to originate facing the rise of ground sharks, particularly since the Eocene. These effects came from ecologically similar carcharhiniform species inhibiting diversification of medium- and large-sized lamniforms. These results imply that the interplay between abiotic and biotic drivers had a substantial role in extinction and speciation, respectively, which determines the sequential rise and decline of marine apex predators.

Loss of Biodiversity Dimensions through Shifting Climates and Ancient Mass Extinctions

Many aspects of climate affect the deployment of biodiversity in time and space, and so changes in climate might be expected to drive regional and global extinction of both taxa and their ecological functions. Here we examine the association of past climate changes with extinction in marine bivalves, which are increasingly used as a model system for macroecological and macroevolutionary analysis. Focusing on the Cenozoic Era (66 Myr ago to the present), we analyze extinction patterns in shallow-water marine bivalve genera relative to temperature dynamics as estimated from isotopic data in microfossils. When the entire Cenozoic timeseries is considered, extinction intensity is not significantly associated with the mean temperature or the detrended variance in temperature within a given time interval (stratigraphic stage). However, extinction increases significantly with both the rate of temperature change within the stage of extinction and the absolute change in mean temperature from the preceding stage to the stage of extinction. Thus, several extinction events, particularly the extinction pulse near the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary, do appear to have climatic drivers. Further, the latitudinal diversity gradient today and the Cenozoic history of polar faunas suggest that long-term, regional extinctions associated with cooling removed not just taxa but a variety of ecological functions from high-latitude seas. These dynamics of biodiversity loss contrast with the two mass extinctions bracketing the Mesozoic Era, which had negligible effects on the diversity of ecological functions despite removing nearly as many taxa as the latitudinal gradient does today. Thus, the fossil record raises a key issue: whether the biotic consequences of present-day stresses will more closely resemble the long-term effects of past climate changes or those that cascaded from the mass extinctions.

Timing and periodicity of Phanerozoic marine biodiversity and environmental change

We examine how the history of Phanerozoic marine biodiversity relates to environmental change. Our focus is on North America, which has a relatively densely sampled history. By transforming time series into the time-frequency domain using wavelets, histories of biodiversity are shown to be similar to sea level, temperature and oceanic chemistry at multiple timescales. Fluctuations in sea level play an important role in driving Phanerozoic biodiversity at timescales >50 Myr, and during finite intervals at shorter periods. Subsampled and transformed marine genera time series reinforce the idea that Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic, and Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinctions were geologically rapid, whereas the Ordovician-Silurian and Late Devonian ‘events’ were longer lived. High cross wavelet power indicates that biodiversity is most similar to environmental variables (sea level, plate fragmentation, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, δ³⁴S and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) at periods >200 Myr, when they are broadly in phase (i.e. no time lag). They are also similar at shorter periods for finite durations of time (e.g. during some mass extinctions). These results suggest that long timescale processes (e.g. plate kinematics) are the primary drivers of biodiversity, whilst processes with significant variability at shorter periods (e.g. glacio-eustasy, continental uplift and erosion, volcanism, asteroid impact) play a moderating role. Wavelet transforms are a useful approach for isolating information about times and frequencies of biological activity and commonalities with environmental variables.

Impacts of climate on the biodiversity-productivity relationship in natural forests

Understanding biodiversity-productivity relationships (BPRs) is of theoretical importance, and has important management implications. Most work on BPRs has focused on simple and/or experimentally assembled communities, and it is unclear how these observed BPRs can be extended to complex natural forest ecosystems. Using data from over 115,000 forest plots across the contiguous United States, we show that the bivariate BPRs are positive in dry climates and hump-shaped in mesic climates. When considering other site characteristics, BPRs change to neutral in dry climates and remain hump-shaped in humid sites. Our results indicate that climatic variation is an underlying determinant of contrasting BPRs observed across a large spatial extent, while both biotic factors (e.g., stand age and density) and abiotic factors (e.g., soil properties) can impact BPRs within a given climate unit. These findings suggest that tradeoffs need be made when considering whether to maximize productivity vs. conserve biodiversity, especially in mesic climates.

How has our knowledge of dinosaur diversity through geologic time changed through research history?

Assessments of dinosaur macroevolution at any given time can be biased by the historical publication record. Recent studies have analysed patterns in dinosaur diversity that are based on secular variations in the numbers of published taxa. Many of these have employed a range of approaches that account for changes in the shape of the taxonomic abundance curve, which are largely dependent on databases compiled from the primary published literature. However, how these ‘corrected’ diversity patterns are influenced by the history of publication remains largely unknown. Here, we investigate the influence of publication history between 1991 and 2015 on our understanding of dinosaur evolution using raw diversity estimates and shareholder quorum subsampling for the three major subgroups: Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda. We find that, while sampling generally improves through time, there remain periods and regions in dinosaur evolutionary history where diversity estimates are highly volatile (e.g. the latest Jurassic of Europe, the mid-Cretaceous of North America, and the Late Cretaceous of South America). Our results show that historical changes in database compilation can often substantially influence our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. ‘Global’ estimates of diversity based on the fossil record are often also based on incomplete, and distinct regional signals, each subject to their own sampling history. Changes in the record of taxon abundance distribution, either through discovery of new taxa or addition of existing taxa to improve sampling evenness, are important in improving the reliability of our interpretations of dinosaur diversity. Furthermore, the number of occurrences and newly identified dinosaurs is still rapidly increasing through time, suggesting that it is entirely possible for much of what we know about dinosaurs at the present to change within the next 20 years.

Both temperature fluctuations and East Asian monsoons have driven plant diversification in the karst ecosystems from southern China

Karst ecosystems in southern China are species-rich and have high levels of endemism, yet little is known regarding the evolutionary processes responsible for the origin and diversification of karst biodiversity. The genus Primulina (Gesneriaceae) comprises ca. 170 species endemic to southern China with high levels of ecological (edaphic) specialization, providing an exceptional model to study the plant diversification in karsts. We used molecular data from nine chloroplast and 11 nuclear regions and macroevolutionary analyses to assess the origin and cause of species diversification due to palaeoenvironmental changes and edaphic specialization in Primulina. We found that speciation was positively associated with changes in past temperatures and East Asian monsoons through the evolutionary history of Primulina. Climatic change around the mid-Miocene triggered an early burst followed by a slowdown of diversification rate towards the present with the climate cooling. We detected different speciation rates among edaphic types, and transitions among soil types were infrequently and did not impact the overall speciation rate. Our findings suggest that both global temperature changes and East Asian monsoons have played crucial roles in floristic diversification within the karst ecosystems in southern China, such that speciation was higher when climate was warmer and wetter. This is the first study to directly demonstrate that past monsoon activity is positively correlated with speciation rate in East Asia. This case study could motivate further investigations to assess the impacts of past environmental changes on the origin and diversification of biodiversity in global karst ecosystems, most of which are under threat.

Biotic and environmental dynamics through the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous transition: evidence for protracted faunal and ecological turnover

The Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous interval represents a time of environmental upheaval and cataclysmic events, combined with disruptions to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Historically, the Jurassic/Cretaceous (J/K) boundary was classified as one of eight mass extinctions. However, more recent research has largely overturned this view, revealing a much more complex pattern of biotic and abiotic dynamics than has previously been appreciated. Here, we present a synthesis of our current knowledge of Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous events, focusing particularly on events closest to the J/K boundary. We find evidence for a combination of short-term catastrophic events, large-scale tectonic processes and environmental perturbations, and major clade interactions that led to a seemingly dramatic faunal and ecological turnover in both the marine and terrestrial realms. This is coupled with a great reduction in global biodiversity which might in part be explained by poor sampling. Very few groups appear to have been entirely resilient to this J/K boundary 'event', which hints at a 'cascade model' of ecosystem changes driving faunal dynamics. Within terrestrial ecosystems, larger, more-specialised organisms, such as saurischian dinosaurs, appear to have suffered the most. Medium-sized tetanuran theropods declined, and were replaced by larger-bodied groups, and basal eusauropods were replaced by neosauropod faunas. The ascent of paravian theropods is emphasised by escalated competition with contemporary pterosaur groups, culminating in the explosive radiation of birds, although the timing of this is obfuscated by biases in sampling. Smaller, more ecologically diverse terrestrial non-archosaurs, such as lissamphibians and mammaliaforms, were comparatively resilient to extinctions, instead documenting the origination of many extant groups around the J/K boundary. In the marine realm, extinctions were focused on low-latitude, shallow marine shelf-dwelling faunas, corresponding to a significant eustatic sea-level fall in the latest Jurassic. More mobile and ecologically plastic marine groups, such as ichthyosaurs, survived the boundary relatively unscathed. High rates of extinction and turnover in other macropredaceous marine groups, including plesiosaurs, are accompanied by the origin of most major lineages of extant sharks. Groups which occupied both marine and terrestrial ecosystems, including crocodylomorphs, document a selective extinction in shallow marine forms, whereas turtles appear to have diversified. These patterns suggest that different extinction selectivity and ecological processes were operating between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, which were ultimately important in determining the fates of many key groups, as well as the origins of many major extant lineages. We identify a series of potential abiotic candidates for driving these patterns, including multiple bolide impacts, several episodes of flood basalt eruptions, dramatic climate change, and major disruptions to oceanic systems. The J/K transition therefore, although not a mass extinction, represents an important transitional period in the co-evolutionary history of life on Earth.

Towards a morphological metric of assemblage dynamics in the fossil record: a test case using planktonic foraminifera

With a glance, even the novice naturalist can tell you something about the ecology of a given ecosystem. This is because the morphology of individuals reflects their evolutionary history and ecology, and imparts a distinct ‘look’ to communities—making it possible to immediately discern between deserts and forests, or coral reefs and abyssal plains. Once quantified, morphology can provide a common metric for characterizing communities across space and time and, if measured rapidly, serve as a powerful tool for quantifying biotic dynamics. Here, we present and test a new high-throughput approach for analysing community shape in the fossil record using semi-three-dimensional (3D) morphometrics from vertically stacked images (light microscopic or photogrammetric). We assess the potential informativeness of community morphology in a first analysis of the relationship between 3D morphology, ecology and phylogeny in 16 extant species of planktonic foraminifera—an abundant group in the marine fossil record—and in a preliminary comparison of four assemblages from the North Atlantic. In the species examined, phylogenetic relatedness was most closely correlated with ecology, with all three ecological traits examined (depth habitat, symbiont ecology and biogeography) showing significant phylogenetic signal. By contrast, morphological trees (based on 3D shape similarity) were relatively distantly related to both ecology and phylogeny. Although improvements are needed to realize the full utility of community morphometrics, our approach already provides robust volumetric measurements of assemblage size, a key ecological characteristic.

Global cooling as a driver of diversification in a major marine clade

Climate is a strong driver of global diversity and will become increasingly important as human influences drive temperature changes at unprecedented rates. Here we investigate diversification and speciation trends within a diverse group of aquatic crustaceans, the Anomura. We use a phylogenetic framework to demonstrate that speciation rate is correlated with global cooling across the entire tree, in contrast to previous studies. Additionally, we find that marine clades continue to show evidence of increased speciation rates with cooler global temperatures, while the single freshwater clade shows the opposite trend with speciation rates positively correlated to global warming. Our findings suggest that both global cooling and warming lead to diversification and that habitat plays a role in the responses of species to climate change. These results have important implications for our understanding of how extant biota respond to ongoing climate change and are of particular importance for conservation planning of marine ecosystems.

In many groups of organisms, speciation rates are higher when global temperatures are warmer. Here, Davis et al. find that marine crustaceans in the Anomura clade have higher speciation rates during cooler periods, whereas their freshwater relatives have the more typical relationship of higher speciation rates in warmer periods.

Late Cenozoic onset of the latitudinal diversity gradient of North American mammals

The decline of species richness from equator to pole, or latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), is nearly universal among clades of living organisms, yet whether it was such a pervasive pattern in the geologic past remains uncertain. Here, we calculate the strength of the LDG for terrestrial mammals in North America over the past 65 My, using 27,903 fossil occurrences of Cenozoic terrestrial mammals from western North America downloaded from the Paleobiology Database. Accounting for temporal and spatial variation in sampling, the LDG was substantially weaker than it is today for most of the Cenozoic and the robust modern LDG of North American mammals evolved only over the last 4 My. The strength of the LDG correlates negatively with global temperature, suggesting a role of global climate patterns in the establishment and maintenance of the LDG for North American mammals.

Environmental changes define ecological limits to species richness and reveal the mode of macroevolutionary competition

Co‐dependent geological and climatic changes obscure how species interact in deep time. The interplay between these environmental factors makes it hard to discern whether ecological competition exerts an upper limit on species richness. Here, using the exceptional fossil record of Cenozoic Era macroperforate planktonic foraminifera, we assess the evidence for alternative modes of macroevolutionary competition. Our models support an environmentally dependent macroevolutionary form of contest competition that yields finite upper bounds on species richness. Models of biotic competition assuming unchanging environmental conditions were overwhelmingly rejected. In the best‐supported model, temperature affects the per‐lineage diversification rate, while both temperature and an environmental driver of sediment accumulation defines the upper limit. The support for contest competition implies that incumbency constrains species richness by restricting niche availability, and that the number of macroevolutionary niches varies as a function of environmental changes.

Why should we investigate the morphological disparity of plant clades?

BACKGROUND

Disparity refers to the morphological variation in a sample of taxa, and is distinct from diversity or taxonomic richness. Diversity and disparity are fundamentally decoupled; many groups attain high levels of disparity early in their evolution, while diversity is still comparatively low. Diversity may subsequently increase even in the face of static or declining disparity by increasingly fine sub-division of morphological 'design' space (morphospace). Many animal clades reached high levels of disparity early in their evolution, but there have been few comparable studies of plant clades, despite their profound ecological and evolutionary importance. This study offers a prospective and some preliminary macroevolutionary analyses.

METHODS

Classical morphometric methods are most suitable when there is reasonable conservation of form, but lose traction where morphological differences become greater (e.g. in comparisons across higher taxa). Discrete character matrices offer one means to compare a greater diversity of forms. This study explores morphospaces derived from eight discrete data sets for major plant clades, and discusses their macroevolutionary implications.

KEY RESULTS

Most of the plant clades in this study show initial, high levels of disparity that approach or attain the maximum levels reached subsequently. These plant clades are characterized by an initial phase of evolution during which most regions of their empirical morphospaces are colonized. Angiosperms, palms, pines and ferns show remarkably little variation in disparity through time. Conifers furnish the most marked exception, appearing at relatively low disparity in the latest Carboniferous, before expanding incrementally with the radiation of successive, tightly clustered constituent sub-clades.

CONCLUSIONS

Many cladistic data sets can be repurposed for investigating the morphological disparity of plant clades through time, and offer insights that are complementary to more focused morphometric studies. The unique structural and ecological features of plants make them ideally suited to investigating intrinsic and extrinsic constraints on disparity.

Temperature-related geographical shifts among passerines: contrasting processes along poleward and equatorward range margins

Climate change is causing widespread geographical range shifts, which likely reflects different processes at leading and trailing range margins. Progressive warming is thought to relax thermal barriers at poleward range margins, enabling colonization of novel areas, but imposes increasingly unsuitable thermal conditions at equatorward margins, leading to range losses from those areas. Few tests of this process during recent climate change have been possible, but understanding determinants of species’ range limits will improve predictions of their geographical responses to climate change and variation in extinction risk. Here, we examine the relationship between poleward and equatorward range margin dynamics with respect to temperature‐related geographical limits observed for 34 breeding passerine species in North America between 1984–1988 and 2002–2006. We find that species’ equatorward range margins were closer to their upper realized thermal niche limits and proximity to those limits predicts equatorward population extinction risk through time. Conversely, the difference between breeding bird species’ poleward range margin temperatures and the coolest temperatures they tolerate elsewhere in their ranges was substantial and remained consistent through time: range expansion at species’ poleward range margins is unlikely to directly reflect lowered thermal barriers to colonization. The process of range expansion may reflect more complex factors operating across broader areas of species’ ranges. The latitudinal extent of breeding bird ranges is decreasing through time. Disparate responses observed at poleward versus equatorward margins arise due to differences in range margin placement within the realized thermal niche and suggest that climate‐induced geographical shift at equatorward range limits more strongly reflect abiotic conditions than at their poleward range limits. This further suggests that observed geographic responses to date may fail to demonstrate the true cost of climate change on the poleward portion of species’ distributions. Poleward range margins for North American breeding passerines are not presently in equilibrium with realized thermal limits.

Fossil evidence for key innovations in the evolution of insect diversity

Explaining the taxonomic richness of the insects, comprising over half of all described species, is a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Previously, several evolutionary novelties (key innovations) have been posited to contribute to that richness, including the insect bauplan, wings, wing folding and complete metamorphosis, but evidence over their relative importance and modes of action is sparse and equivocal. Here, a new dataset on the first and last occurrences of fossil hexapod (insects and close relatives) families is used to show that basal families of winged insects (Palaeoptera, e.g. dragonflies) show higher origination and extinction rates in the fossil record than basal wingless groups (Apterygota, e.g. silverfish). Origination and extinction rates were maintained at levels similar to Palaeoptera in the more derived Polyneoptera (e.g. cockroaches) and Paraneoptera (e.g. true bugs), but extinction rates subsequently reduced in the very rich group of insects with complete metamorphosis (Holometabola, e.g. beetles). Holometabola show evidence of a recent slow-down in their high net diversification rate, whereas other winged taxa continue to diversify at constant but low rates. These data suggest that wings and complete metamorphosis have had the most effect on family-level insect macroevolution, and point to specific mechanisms by which they have influenced insect diversity through time.

Climate constrains the evolutionary history and biodiversity of crocodylians

The fossil record of crocodylians and their relatives (pseudosuchians) reveals a rich evolutionary history, prompting questions about causes of long-term decline to their present-day low biodiversity. We analyse climatic drivers of subsampled pseudosuchian biodiversity over their 250 million year history, using a comprehensive new data set. Biodiversity and environmental changes correlate strongly, with long-term decline of terrestrial taxa driven by decreasing temperatures in northern temperate regions, and biodiversity decreases at lower latitudes matching patterns of increasing aridification. However, there is no relationship between temperature and biodiversity for marine pseudosuchians, with sea-level change and post-extinction opportunism demonstrated to be more important drivers. A ‘modern-type' latitudinal biodiversity gradient might have existed throughout pseudosuchian history, and range expansion towards the poles occurred during warm intervals. Although their fossil record suggests that current global warming might promote long-term increases in crocodylian biodiversity and geographic range, the 'balancing forces' of anthropogenic environmental degradation complicate future predictions.

Crocodylians and their relatives have a rich evolutionary history. Here the authors show long-term decline of terrestrial crocodylians driven by decreasing temperatures but no relationship between temperature and biodiversity for marine crocodylians over their 250 million year history.

Ecological interactions on macroevolutionary time scales: clams and brachiopods are more than ships that pass in the night

Competition among organisms has ecological and evolutionary consequences. However, whether the consequences of competition are manifested and measureable on macroevolutionary time scales is equivocal. Marine bivalves and brachiopods have overlapping niches such that competition for food and space may occur. Moreover, there is a long-standing debate over whether bivalves outcompeted brachiopods evolutionarily, because brachiopod diversity declined through time while bivalve diversity increased. To answer this question, we estimate the origination and extinction dynamics of fossil marine bivalve and brachiopod genera from the Ordovician through to the Recent while simultaneously accounting for incomplete sampling. Then, using stochastic differential equations, we assess statistical relationships among diversification and sampling dynamics of brachiopods and bivalves and five paleoenvironmental proxies. None of these potential environmental drivers had any detectable influence on brachiopod or bivalve diversification. In contrast, elevated bivalve extinction rates causally increased brachiopod origination rates, suggesting that bivalves have suppressed brachiopod evolution.