Predictability of evolution depends nonmonotonically on population size

Understanding evolutionary rescue and parallelism in response to environmental stress

Evolutionary rescue, the process by which populations facing environmental stress avoid extinction through genetic adaptation, is a critical area of study in evolutionary biology. The order in which mutations arise and get established will be relevant to the population's rescue. This study investigates the degree of parallel evolution at the genotypic level between independent populations facing environmental stress and subject to different demographic regimes. Under density regulation, 2 regimes exist: In the first, the population can restore positive growth rates by adjusting its population size or through adaptive mutations, whereas in the second regime, the population is doomed to extinction unless a rescue mutation occurs. Analytical approximations for the likelihood of evolutionary rescue are obtained and contrasted with simulation results. We show that the initial level of maladaptation and the demographic regime significantly affect the level of parallelism. There is an evident transition between these 2 regimes. Whereas in the first regime, parallelism decreases with the level of maladaptation, it displays the opposite behavior in the rescue/extinction regime. These findings have important implications for understanding population persistence and the degree of parallelism in evolutionary responses as they integrate demographic effects and evolutionary processes.

Selection leads to remarkable variability in the outcomes of hybridisation across replicate hybrid zones

Hybrid zones have been viewed as an opportunity to see speciation in action. When hybrid zones are replicated, it is assumed that if the same genetic incompatibilities are maintaining reproductive isolation across all instances of secondary contact, those incompatibilities should be identifiable by consistent patterns in the genome. In contrast, changes in allele frequencies due to genetic drift should be idiosyncratic for each hybrid zone. To test this assumption, we simulated 20 replicates of each of 12 hybrid zone scenarios with varied genetic incompatibilities, rates of migration, selection and different starting population size ratios of parental species. We found remarkable variability in the outcomes of hybridisation in replicate hybrid zones, particularly with Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities and strong selection. We found substantial differences among replicates in the overall genomic composition of individuals, including admixture proportions, inter-specific ancestry complement and number of ancestry junctions. Additionally, we found substantial variation in genomic clines among replicates at focal loci, regardless of locus-specific selection. We conclude that processes other than selection are responsible for some consistent outcomes of hybridisation, whereas selection on incompatibilities can lead to genomically widespread and highly variable outcomes. We highlight the challenge of mapping between pattern and process in hybrid zones and call attention to how selection against incompatibilities will commonly lead to variable outcomes. We hope that this study informs future research on replicate hybrid zones and encourages further development of statistical techniques, theoretical models and exploration of additional axes of variation to understand reproductive isolation.

Parallel evolution despite low genetic diversity in three-spined sticklebacks

When populations repeatedly adapt to similar environments they can evolve similar phenotypes based on shared genetic mechanisms (parallel evolution). The likelihood of parallel evolution is affected by demographic history, as it depends on the standing genetic variation of the source population. The three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) repeatedly colonized and adapted to brackish and freshwater. Most parallel evolution studies in G. aculeatus were conducted at high latitudes, where freshwater populations maintain connectivity to the source marine populations. Here, we analysed southern and northern European marine and freshwater populations to test two hypotheses. First, that southern European freshwater populations (which currently lack connection to marine populations) lost genetic diversity due to bottlenecks and inbreeding compared to their northern counterparts. Second, that the degree of genetic parallelism is higher among northern than southern European freshwater populations, as the latter have been subjected to strong drift due to isolation. The results show that southern populations exhibit lower genetic diversity but a higher degree of genetic parallelism than northern populations. Hence, they confirm the hypothesis that southern populations have lost genetic diversity, but this loss probably happened after they had already adapted to freshwater conditions, explaining the high degree of genetic parallelism in the south.

A computational method for predicting the most likely evolutionary trajectories in the stepwise accumulation of resistance mutations

Pathogen evolution of drug resistance often occurs in a stepwise manner via the accumulation of multiple mutations that in combination have a non-additive impact on fitness, a phenomenon known as epistasis. The evolution of resistance via the accumulation of point mutations in the DHFR genes of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv) has been studied extensively and multiple studies have shown epistatic interactions between these mutations determine the accessible evolutionary trajectories to highly resistant multiple mutations. Here, we simulated these evolutionary trajectories using a model of molecular evolution, parameterised using Rosetta Flex ddG predictions, where selection acts to reduce the target-drug binding affinity. We observe strong agreement with pathways determined using experimentally measured IC50 values of pyrimethamine binding, which suggests binding affinity is strongly predictive of resistance and epistasis in binding affinity strongly influences the order of fixation of resistance mutations. We also infer pathways directly from the frequency of mutations found in isolate data, and observe remarkable agreement with the most likely pathways predicted by our mechanistic model, as well as those determined experimentally. This suggests mutation frequency data can be used to intuitively infer evolutionary pathways, provided sufficient sampling of the population.

The geologic history of primary productivity

The rate of primary productivity is a keystone variable in driving biogeochemical cycles today and has been throughout Earth's past.1 For example, it plays a critical role in determining nutrient stoichiometry in the oceans,2 the amount of global biomass,3 and the composition of Earth's atmosphere.4 Modern estimates suggest that terrestrial and marine realms contribute near-equal amounts to global gross primary productivity (GPP).5 However, this productivity balance has shifted significantly in both recent times6 and through deep time.7,8 Combining the marine and terrestrial components, modern GPP fixes ≈250 billion tonnes of carbon per year (Gt C year-1).5,9,10,11 A grand challenge in the study of the history of life on Earth has been to constrain the trajectory that connects present-day productivity to the origin of life. Here, we address this gap by piecing together estimates of primary productivity from the origin of life to the present day. We estimate that ∼1011-1012 Gt C has cumulatively been fixed through GPP (≈100 times greater than Earth's entire carbon stock). We further estimate that 1039-1040 cells have occupied the Earth to date, that more autotrophs than heterotrophs have ever existed, and that cyanobacteria likely account for a larger proportion than any other group in terms of the number of cells. We discuss implications for evolutionary trajectories and highlight the early Proterozoic, which encompasses the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), as the time where most uncertainty exists regarding the quantitative census presented here.

Genetic Architecture of Flowering Time Differs Between Populations With Contrasting Demographic and Selective Histories

Understanding the evolutionary factors that impact the genetic architecture of traits is a central goal of evolutionary genetics. Here, we investigate how quantitative trait variation accumulated over time in populations that colonized a novel environment. We compare the genetic architecture of flowering time in Arabidopsis populations from the drought-prone Cape Verde Islands and their closest outgroup population from North Africa. We find that trait polygenicity is severely reduced in the island populations compared to the continental North African population. Further, trait architectures and reconstructed allelic histories best fit a model of strong directional selection in the islands in accord with a Fisher-Orr adaptive walk. Consistent with this, we find that large-effect variants that disrupt major flowering time genes (FRI and FLC) arose first, followed by smaller effect variants, including ATX2 L125F, which is associated with a 4-day reduction in flowering time. The most recently arising flowering time-associated loci are not known to be directly involved in flowering time, consistent with an omnigenic signature developing as the population approaches its trait optimum. Surprisingly, we find no effect in the natural population of EDI-Cvi-0 (CRY2 V367M), an allele for which an effect was previously validated by introgression into a Eurasian line. Instead, our results suggest the previously observed effect of the EDI-Cvi-0 allele on flowering time likely depends on genetic background, due to an epistatic interaction. Altogether, our results provide an empirical example of the effects demographic history and selection has on trait architecture.

Impact of population size on early adaptation in rugged fitness landscapes

Owing to stochastic fluctuations arising from finite population size, known as genetic drift, the ability of a population to explore a rugged fitness landscape depends on its size. In the weak mutation regime, while the mean steady-state fitness increases with population size, we find that the height of the first fitness peak encountered when starting from a random genotype displays various behaviours versus population size, even among small and simple rugged landscapes. We show that the accessibility of the different fitness peaks is key to determining whether this height overall increases or decreases with population size. Furthermore, there is often a finite population size that maximizes the height of the first fitness peak encountered when starting from a random genotype. This holds across various classes of model rugged landscapes with sparse peaks, and in some experimental and experimentally inspired ones. Thus, early adaptation in rugged fitness landscapes can be more efficient and predictable for relatively small population sizes than in the large-size limit. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Evolutionary repeatability of emergent properties of ecological communities

Most species belong to ecological communities where their interactions give rise to emergent community-level properties, such as diversity and productivity. Understanding and predicting how these properties change over time has been a major goal in ecology, with important practical implications for sustainability and human health. Less attention has been paid to the fact that community-level properties can also change because member species evolve. Yet, our ability to predict long-term eco-evolutionary dynamics hinges on how repeatably community-level properties change as a result of species evolution. Here, we review studies of evolution of both natural and experimental communities and make the case that community-level properties at least sometimes evolve repeatably. We discuss challenges faced in investigations of evolutionary repeatability. In particular, only a handful of studies enable us to quantify repeatability. We argue that quantifying repeatability at the community level is critical for approaching what we see as three major open questions in the field: (i) Is the observed degree of repeatability surprising? (ii) How is evolutionary repeatability at the community level related to repeatability at the level of traits of member species? (iii) What factors affect repeatability? We outline some theoretical and empirical approaches to addressing these questions. Advances in these directions will not only enrich our basic understanding of evolution and ecology but will also help us predict eco-evolutionary dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Genomic responses to parallel temperature gradients in the eelgrass Zostera marina in adjacent bays

The extent of parallel genomic responses to similar selective pressures depends on a complex array of environmental, demographic, and evolutionary forces. Laboratory experiments with replicated selective pressures yield mixed outcomes under controlled conditions and our understanding of genomic parallelism in the wild is limited to a few well-established systems. Here, we examine genomic signals of selection in the eelgrass Zostera marina across temperature gradients in adjacent embayments. Although we find many genomic regions with signals of selection within each bay there is very little overlap in signals of selection at the SNP level, despite most polymorphisms being shared across bays. We do find overlap at the gene level, potentially suggesting multiple mutational pathways to the same phenotype. Using polygenic models we find that some sets of candidate SNPs are able to predict temperature across both bays, suggesting that small but parallel shifts in allele frequencies may be missed by independent genome scans. Together, these results highlight the continuous rather than binary nature of parallel evolution in polygenic traits and the complexity of evolutionary predictability.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Fitness of evolving bacterial populations is contingent on deep and shallow history but only shallow history creates predictable patterns

Long-term evolution experiments have tested the importance of genetic and environmental factors in influencing evolutionary outcomes. Differences in phylogenetic history, recent adaptation to distinct environments and chance events, all influence the fitness of a population. However, the interplay of these factors on a population's evolutionary potential remains relatively unexplored. We tracked the outcome of 2000 generations of evolution of four natural isolates of Escherichia coli bacteria that were engineered to also create differences in shallow history by adding previously identified mutations selected in a separate long-term experiment. Replicate populations started from each progenitor evolved in four environments. We found that deep and shallow phylogenetic histories both contributed significantly to differences in evolved fitness, though by different amounts in different selection environments. With one exception, chance effects were not significant. Whereas the effect of deep history did not follow any detectable pattern, effects of shallow history followed a pattern of diminishing returns whereby fitter ancestors had smaller fitness increases. These results are consistent with adaptive evolution being contingent on the interaction of several evolutionary forces but demonstrate that the nature of these interactions is not fixed and may not be predictable even when the role of chance is small.

Compiling forty years of guppy research to investigate the factors contributing to (non)parallel evolution

Examples of parallel evolution have been crucial for our understanding of adaptation via natural selection. However, strong parallelism is not always observed even in seemingly similar environments where natural selection is expected to favour similar phenotypes. Leveraging this variation in parallelism within well-researched study systems can provide insight into the factors that contribute to variation in adaptive responses. Here we analyse the results of 36 studies reporting 446 average trait values in Trinidadian guppies, Poecilia reticulata, from different predation regimes. We examine how the extent of predator-driven phenotypic parallelism is influenced by six factors: sex, trait type, rearing environment, ecological complexity, evolutionary history, and time since colonization. Analyses show that parallel evolution in guppies is highly variable and weak on average, with only 24.7% of the variation among populations being explained by predation regime. Levels of parallelism appeared to be especially weak for colour traits, and parallelism decreased with increasing complexity of evolutionary history (i.e., when estimates of parallelism from populations within a single drainage were compared to estimates of parallelism from populations pooled between two major drainages). Suggestive - but not significant - trends that warrant further research include interactions between the sexes and different trait categories. Quantifying and accounting for these and other sources of variation among evolutionary 'replicates' can be leveraged to better understand the extent to which seemingly similar environments drive parallel and nonparallel aspects of phenotypic divergence.

Population bottleneck has only marginal effect on fitness evolution and its repeatability in dioecious Caenorhabditis elegans

The predictability of evolution is expected to depend on the relative contribution of deterministic and stochastic processes. This ratio is modulated by effective population size. Smaller effective populations harbor less genetic diversity and stochastic processes are generally expected to play a larger role, leading to less repeatable evolutionary trajectories. Empirical insight into the relationship between effective population size and repeatability is limited and focused mostly on asexual organisms. Here, we tested whether fitness evolution was less repeatable after a population bottleneck in obligately outcrossing populations of Caenorhabditis elegans. Replicated populations founded by 500, 50, or five individuals (no/moderate/strong bottleneck) were exposed to a novel environment with a different bacterial prey. As a proxy for fitness, population size was measured after one week of growth before and after 15 weeks of evolution. Surprisingly, we found no significant differences among treatments in their fitness evolution. Even though the strong bottleneck reduced the relative contribution of selection to fitness variation, this did not translate to a significant reduction in the repeatability of fitness evolution. Thus, although a bottleneck reduced the contribution of deterministic processes, we conclude that the predictability of evolution may not universally depend on effective population size, especially in sexual organisms.

Hybrid evolution repeats itself across environmental contexts in Texas sunflowers (Helianthus)

To what extent is evolution repeatable? Little is known about whether the evolution of hybrids is more (or less) repeatable than that of nonhybrids. We used field experimental evolution in annual sunflowers (Helianthus) in Texas to ask the extent to which hybrid evolution is repeatable across environments compared to nonhybrid controls. We created hybrids between Helianthus annuus (L.) and H. debilis (Nutt.) and grew plots of both hybrids and nonhybrid controls through eight generations at three sites in Texas. We collected seeds from each generation and grew each generation × treatment × home site combination at two final common gardens. We estimated the strength and direction of evolution in terms of fitness and 24 traits, tested for repeated versus nonrepeated evolution, and assessed overall phenotypic evolution across lineages and in relation to a locally adapted phenotype. Hybrids consistently evolved higher fitness over time, while controls did not, although trait evolution varied in strength across home sites. Repeated evolution was more evident in hybrids versus nonhybrid controls, and hybrid evolution was often in the direction of the locally adapted phenotype. Our findings have implications for both the nature of repeatability in evolution and the contribution of hybridization to evolution across environmental contexts.

Decreased thermal niche breadth as a trade-off of antibiotic resistance

Evolutionary theory predicts that adaptations, including antibiotic resistance, should come with associated fitness costs; yet, many resistance mutations seemingly contradict this prediction by inducing no growth rate deficit. However, most growth assays comparing sensitive and resistant strains have been performed under a narrow range of environmental conditions, which do not reflect the variety of contexts that a pathogenic bacterium might encounter when causing infection. We hypothesized that reduced niche breadth, defined as diminished growth across a diversity of environments, can be a cost of antibiotic resistance. Specifically, we test whether chloramphenicol-resistant Escherichia coli incur disproportionate growth deficits in novel thermal conditions. Here we show that chloramphenicol-resistant bacteria have greater fitness costs at novel temperatures than their antibiotic-sensitive ancestors. In several cases, we observed no resistance cost in growth rate at the historic temperature but saw diminished growth at warmer and colder temperatures. These results were consistent across various genetic mechanisms of resistance. Thus, we propose that decreased thermal niche breadth is an under-documented fitness cost of antibiotic resistance. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that the cost of antibiotic resistance shifts rapidly as the environment changes; these context-dependent resistance costs should select for the rapid gain and loss of resistance as an evolutionary strategy.

Population size mediates the contribution of high-rate and large-benefit mutations to parallel evolution

Mutations with large fitness benefits and mutations occurring at high rates may both cause parallel evolution, but their contribution is predicted to depend on population size. Moreover, high-rate and large-benefit mutations may have different long-term adaptive consequences. We show that small and 100-fold larger bacterial populations evolve resistance to a β-lactam antibiotic by using similar numbers, but different types of mutations. Small populations frequently substitute similar high-rate structural variants and loss-of-function point mutations, including the deletion of a low-activity β-lactamase, and evolve modest resistance levels. Large populations more often use low-rate, large-benefit point mutations affecting the same targets, including mutations activating the β-lactamase and other gain-of-function mutations, leading to much higher resistance levels. Our results demonstrate the separation by clonal interference of mutation classes with divergent adaptive consequences, causing a shift from high-rate to large-benefit mutations with increases in population size.

Parallel reduction in flowering time from de novo mutations enable evolutionary rescue in colonizing lineages

Understanding how populations adapt to abrupt environmental change is necessary to predict responses to future challenges, but identifying specific adaptive variants, quantifying their responses to selection and reconstructing their detailed histories is challenging in natural populations. Here, we use Arabidopsis from the Cape Verde Islands as a model to investigate the mechanisms of adaptation after a sudden shift to a more arid climate. We find genome-wide evidence of adaptation after a multivariate change in selection pressures. In particular, time to flowering is reduced in parallel across islands, substantially increasing fitness. This change is mediated by convergent de novo loss of function of two core flowering time genes: FRI on one island and FLC on the other. Evolutionary reconstructions reveal a case where expansion of the new populations coincided with the emergence and proliferation of these variants, consistent with models of rapid adaptation and evolutionary rescue.

Detailing how populations adapted to environmental change is needed to predict future responses, but identifying adaptive variants and detailing their fitness effects is rare. Here, the authors show that parallel loss of FRI and FLC function reduces time to flowering and drives adaptation in a drought prone environment.

The evolution, evolvability and engineering of gene regulatory DNA

Mutations in non-coding regulatory DNA sequences can alter gene expression, organismal phenotype and fitness^1-3. Constructing complete fitness landscapes, in which DNA sequences are mapped to fitness, is a long-standing goal in biology, but has remained elusive because it is challenging to generalize reliably to vast sequence spaces^4-6. Here we build sequence-to-expression models that capture fitness landscapes and use them to decipher principles of regulatory evolution. Using millions of randomly sampled promoter DNA sequences and their measured expression levels in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we learn deep neural network models that generalize with excellent prediction performance, and enable sequence design for expression engineering. Using our models, we study expression divergence under genetic drift and strong-selection weak-mutation regimes to find that regulatory evolution is rapid and subject to diminishing returns epistasis; that conflicting expression objectives in different environments constrain expression adaptation; and that stabilizing selection on gene expression leads to the moderation of regulatory complexity. We present an approach for using such models to detect signatures of selection on expression from natural variation in regulatory sequences and use it to discover an instance of convergent regulatory evolution. We assess mutational robustness, finding that regulatory mutation effect sizes follow a power law, characterize regulatory evolvability, visualize promoter fitness landscapes, discover evolvability archetypes and illustrate the mutational robustness of natural regulatory sequence populations. Our work provides a general framework for designing regulatory sequences and addressing fundamental questions in regulatory evolution.

PMCE: efficient inference of expressive models of cancer evolution with high prognostic power

MOTIVATION

Driver (epi)genomic alterations underlie the positive selection of cancer subpopulations, which promotes drug resistance and relapse. Even though substantial heterogeneity is witnessed in most cancer types, mutation accumulation patterns can be regularly found and can be exploited to reconstruct predictive models of cancer evolution. Yet, available methods can not infer logical formulas connecting events to represent alternative evolutionary routes or convergent evolution.

RESULTS

We introduce PMCE, an expressive framework that leverages mutational profiles from cross-sectional sequencing data to infer probabilistic graphical models of cancer evolution including arbitrary logical formulas, and which outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy and robustness to noise, on simulations. The application of PMCE to 7866 samples from the TCGA database allows us to identify a highly significant correlation between the predicted evolutionary paths and the overall survival in 7 tumor types, proving that our approach can effectively stratify cancer patients in reliable risk groups.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

PMCE is freely available at https://github.com/BIMIB-DISCo/PMCE, in addition to the code to replicate all the analyses presented in the manuscript.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Conditional prediction of consecutive tumor evolution using cancer progression models: What genotype comes next?

Accurate prediction of tumor progression is key for adaptive therapy and precision medicine. Cancer progression models (CPMs) can be used to infer dependencies in mutation accumulation from cross-sectional data and provide predictions of tumor progression paths. However, their performance when predicting complete evolutionary trajectories is limited by violations of assumptions and the size of available data sets. Instead of predicting full tumor progression paths, here we focus on short-term predictions, more relevant for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. We examine whether five distinct CPMs can be used to answer the question "Given that a genotype with n mutations has been observed, what genotype with n + 1 mutations is next in the path of tumor progression?" or, shortly, "What genotype comes next?". Using simulated data we find that under specific combinations of genotype and fitness landscape characteristics CPMs can provide predictions of short-term evolution that closely match the true probabilities, and that some genotype characteristics can be much more relevant than global features. Application of these methods to 25 cancer data sets shows that their use is hampered by a lack of information needed to make principled decisions about method choice. Fruitful use of these methods for short-term predictions requires adapting method's use to local genotype characteristics and obtaining reliable indicators of performance; it will also be necessary to clarify the interpretation of the method's results when key assumptions do not hold.

Lanza V, Rodríguez-Beltrán J, Galán JC, San Millán A, Cantón R, Coque TM. Evolutionary Pathways and Trajectories in Antibiotic Resistance

Evolution is the hallmark of life. Descriptions of the evolution of microorganisms have provided a wealth of information, but knowledge regarding "what happened" has precluded a deeper understanding of "how" evolution has proceeded, as in the case of antimicrobial resistance. The difficulty in answering the "how" question lies in the multihierarchical dimensions of evolutionary processes, nested in complex networks, encompassing all units of selection, from genes to communities and ecosystems. At the simplest ontological level (as resistance genes), evolution proceeds by random (mutation and drift) and directional (natural selection) processes; however, sequential pathways of adaptive variation can occasionally be observed, and under fixed circumstances (particular fitness landscapes), evolution is predictable. At the highest level (such as that of plasmids, clones, species, microbiotas), the systems' degrees of freedom increase dramatically, related to the variable dispersal, fragmentation, relatedness, or coalescence of bacterial populations, depending on heterogeneous and changing niches and selective gradients in complex environments. Evolutionary trajectories of antibiotic resistance find their way in these changing landscapes subjected to random variations, becoming highly entropic and therefore unpredictable. However, experimental, phylogenetic, and ecogenetic analyses reveal preferential frequented paths (highways) where antibiotic resistance flows and propagates, allowing some understanding of evolutionary dynamics, modeling and designing interventions. Studies on antibiotic resistance have an applied aspect in improving individual health, One Health, and Global Health, as well as an academic value for understanding evolution. Most importantly, they have a heuristic significance as a model to reduce the negative influence of anthropogenic effects on the environment.

Intelligent host engineering for metabolic flux optimisation in biotechnology

Optimising the function of a protein of length N amino acids by directed evolution involves navigating a 'search space' of possible sequences of some 20N. Optimising the expression levels of P proteins that materially affect host performance, each of which might also take 20 (logarithmically spaced) values, implies a similar search space of 20P. In this combinatorial sense, then, the problems of directed protein evolution and of host engineering are broadly equivalent. In practice, however, they have different means for avoiding the inevitable difficulties of implementation. The spare capacity exhibited in metabolic networks implies that host engineering may admit substantial increases in flux to targets of interest. Thus, we rehearse the relevant issues for those wishing to understand and exploit those modern genome-wide host engineering tools and thinking that have been designed and developed to optimise fluxes towards desirable products in biotechnological processes, with a focus on microbial systems. The aim throughput is 'making such biology predictable'. Strategies have been aimed at both transcription and translation, especially for regulatory processes that can affect multiple targets. However, because there is a limit on how much protein a cell can produce, increasing kcat in selected targets may be a better strategy than increasing protein expression levels for optimal host engineering.

Evolutionary Mechanisms of Cancer Suggest Rational Therapeutic Approaches

The goal in personalized therapeutic approaches for cancer medicine is to identify specific mutations with prognostic and therapeutic value in order to tailor the therapy for the single patient. The most powerful obstacle for personalized medicine arises from intratumor heterogeneity and clonal evolution, which can promote drug resistance. In this scenario, new technologies, such as next-generation sequencing, have emerged as a central diagnostic tool to profile cancer (epi)genomic landscapes. Therefore, a better understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying cancer evolution is mandatory and represents the current challenge to accurately predict whether cancer will recur after chemotherapy with the aim to tailor rational therapeutic approaches.

Extreme value theory as a framework for understanding mutation frequency distribution in cancer genomes

Currently, the population dynamics of preclonal cancer cells before clonal expansion of tumors has not been sufficiently addressed thus far. By focusing on preclonal cancer cell population as a Darwinian evolutionary system, we formulated and analyzed the observed mutation frequency among tumors (MFaT) as a proxy for the hypothesized sequence read frequency and beneficial fitness effect of a cancer driver mutation. Analogous to intestinal crypts, we assumed that sample donor patients are separate culture tanks where proliferating cells follow certain population dynamics described by extreme value theory (EVT). To validate this, we analyzed three large-scale cancer genome datasets, each harboring > 10000 tumor samples and in total involving > 177898 observed mutation sites. We clarified the necessary premises for the application of EVT in the strong selection and weak mutation (SSWM) regime in relation to cancer genome sequences at scale. We also confirmed that the stochastic distribution of MFaT is likely of the Fréchet type, which challenges the well-known Gumbel hypothesis of beneficial fitness effects. Based on statistical data analysis, we demonstrated the potential of EVT as a population genetics framework to understand and explain the stochastic behavior of driver-mutation frequency in cancer genomes as well as its applicability in real cancer genome sequence data.

An interplay of resource availability, population size and mutation rate potentiates the evolution of metabolic signaling

Background

Asexually reproducing populations of single cells evolve through mutation, natural selection, and genetic drift. Environmental conditions in which the evolution takes place define the emergent fitness landscapes. In this work, we used Avida—a digital evolution framework—to uncover a hitherto unexplored interaction between mutation rates, population size, and the relative abundance of metabolizable resources, and its effect on evolutionary outcomes in small populations of digital organisms.

Results

Over each simulation, the population evolved to one of several states, each associated with a single dominant phenotype with its associated fitness and genotype. For a low mutation rate, acquisition of fitness by organisms was accompanied with, and dependent on, an increase in rate of genomic replication. At an increased mutation rate, phenotypes with high fitness values were similarly achieved through enhanced genome replication rates. In addition, we also observed the frequent emergence of suboptimal fitness phenotype, wherein neighboring organisms signaled to each other information relevant to performing metabolic tasks. This metabolic signaling was vital to fitness acquisition and was correlated with greater genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity in the population. The frequency of appearance of signaling populations increased with population size and with resource abundance.

Conclusions

Our results reveal a minimal set of environment–genotype interactions that lead to the emergence of metabolic signaling within evolving populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01782-0.

Robustness and predictability of evolution in bottlenecked populations

Deterministic and stochastic evolutionary processes drive adaptation in natural populations. The strength of each component process is determined by the population size: deterministic components prevail in very large populations, while stochastic components are the driving mechanisms in small ones. Many natural populations, however, experience intermittent periods of growth, moving through states in which either stochastic or deterministic processes prevail. This growth is often countered by population bottlenecks, which abound in both natural and laboratory populations. Here we investigate how population bottlenecks shape the process of adaptation. We demonstrate that adaptive trajectories in populations experiencing regular bottlenecks can be naturally scaled in time units of generations; with this scaling the time courses of adaptation, fitness variance, and genetic diversity all become relatively insensitive to the timing of population bottlenecks, provided the bottleneck size exceeds a few thousand individuals. We also include analyses at the genotype level to investigate the impact of population bottlenecks on the predictability and distribution of evolutionary pathways. Irrespective of the timing of population bottlenecks, we find that predictability increases with population size. We also find that predictability of the adaptive pathways increases in increasingly rugged fitness landscapes. Overall, our work reveals that both the adaptation rate and the predictability of evolutionary trajectories are relatively robust to population bottlenecks.

Clonal Interference and Mutation Bias in Small Bacterial Populations in Droplets

Experimental evolution studies have provided key insights into the fundamental mechanisms of evolution. One striking observation is that parallel and convergent evolution during laboratory evolution can be surprisingly common. However, these experiments are typically performed with well-mixed cultures and large effective population sizes, while pathogenic microbes typically experience strong bottlenecks during infection or drug treatment. Yet, our knowledge about adaptation in very small populations, where selection strength and mutation supplies are limited, is scant. In this study, wild-type and mutator strains of the bacterium Escherichia coli were evolved for about 100 generations towards increased resistance to the β-lactam antibiotic cefotaxime in millifluidic droplets of 0.5 µL and effective population size of approximately 27,000 cells. The small effective population size limited the adaptive potential of wild-type populations, where adaptation was limited to inactivating mutations, which caused the increased production of outer-membrane vesicles, leading to modest fitness increases. In contrast, mutator clones with an average of ~30-fold higher mutation rate adapted much faster by acquiring both inactivating mutations of an outer-membrane porin and particularly inactivating and gain-of-function mutations, causing the upregulation or activation of a common efflux pump, respectively. Our results demonstrate how in very small populations, clonal interference and mutation bias together affect the choice of adaptive trajectories by mediating the balance between high-rate and large-benefit mutations.

Bottleneck size and selection level reproducibly impact evolution of antibiotic resistance

During antibiotic treatment, the evolution of bacterial pathogens is fundamentally affected by bottlenecks and varying selection levels imposed by the drugs. Bottlenecks-that is, reductions in bacterial population size-lead to an increased influence of random effects (genetic drift) during bacterial evolution, and varying antibiotic concentrations during treatment may favour distinct resistance variants. Both aspects influence the process of bacterial evolution during antibiotic therapy and thereby treatment outcome. Surprisingly, the joint influence of these interconnected factors on the evolution of antibiotic resistance remains largely unexplored. Here we combine evolution experiments with genomic and genetic analyses to demonstrate that bottleneck size and antibiotic-induced selection reproducibly impact the evolutionary path to resistance in pathogenic Pseudomonas aeruginosa, one of the most problematic opportunistic human pathogens. Resistance is favoured-expectedly-under high antibiotic selection and weak bottlenecks, but-unexpectedly-also under low antibiotic selection and severe bottlenecks. The latter is likely to result from a reduced probability of losing favourable variants through drift under weak selection. Moreover, the absence of high resistance under low selection and weak bottlenecks is caused by the spread of low-resistance variants with high competitive fitness under these conditions. We conclude that bottlenecks, in combination with drug-induced selection, are currently neglected key determinants of pathogen evolution and outcome of antibiotic treatment.

The genomic signature of ecological divergence along the benthic-limnetic axis in allopatric and sympatric threespine stickleback

The repeated occurrence of similar phenotypes in independent lineages (i.e., parallel evolution) in response to similar ecological conditions can provide compelling insights into the process of adaptive evolution. An intriguing question is to what extent repeated phenotypic changes are underlain by repeated changes at the genomic level and whether patterns of genomic divergence differ with the geographic context in which populations evolve. Here, we combined genomic, morphological and ecological data sets to investigate the genomic signatures of divergence across populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) that adapted to contrasting ecological niches (benthic or limnetic) in either sympatry or allopatry. We found that genome-wide differentiation (F_ST ) was an order of magnitude higher and substantially more repeatable for sympatric benthic and limnetic specialists compared to allopatric populations with similar levels of ecological divergence. We identified genomic regions consistently differentiated between sympatric ecotypes that were also differentiated between or associated with benthic vs. limnetic niche in allopatric populations. These candidate regions were enriched on three chromosomes known to be involved in the benthic-limnetic divergence of threespine stickleback. Some candidate regions overlapped with QTL for body shape and trophic traits such as gill raker number, traits that strongly differ between benthic and limnetic ecotypes. In summary, our study shows that magnitude and repeatability of genomic signatures of ecological divergence in threespine stickleback highly depend on the geographic context. The identified candidate regions provide starting points to identify functionally important genes for the adaptation to benthic and limnetic niches.

Reflections on the Predictability of Evolution: Toward a Conceptual Framework

Evolution is generally considered to be unpredictable because genetic variations are known to occur randomly. However, remarkable patterns of repeated convergent evolution are observed, for instance, loss of pigments by organisms living in caves. Analogous phenotypes appear in similar environments, sometimes in response to similar constraints. Alongside randomness, a certain evolutionary determinism also exists, for instance, the selection of particular phenotypes subjected to particular environmental constraints in the “evolutionary funnel.” We pursue the idea that eco-evolutionary specialization is in some way determinist. The conceptual framework of phenotypic changes entailing specialization presented in this essay explains how evolution can be predicted. We also discuss how the predictability of evolution could be tested using the case of metabolic specialization through gene losses. We also put forward that microorganisms could be key models to test and possibly make headway evolutionary predictions and knowledge about evolution.

Larger bacterial populations evolve heavier fitness trade-offs and undergo greater ecological specialization

Evolutionary studies over the last several decades have invoked fitness trade-offs to explain why species prefer some environments to others. However, the effects of population size on trade-offs and ecological specialization remain largely unknown. To complicate matters, trade-offs themselves have been visualized in multiple ways in the literature. Thus, it is not clear how population size can affect the various aspects of trade-offs. To address these issues, we conducted experimental evolution with Escherichia coli populations of two different sizes in two nutritionally limited environments, and studied fitness trade-offs from three different perspectives. We found that larger populations evolved greater fitness trade-offs, regardless of how trade-offs are conceptualized. Moreover, although larger populations adapted more to their selection conditions, they also became more maladapted to other environments, ultimately paying heavier costs of adaptation. To enhance the generalizability of our results, we further investigated the evolution of ecological specialization across six different environmental pairs, and found that larger populations specialized more frequently and evolved consistently steeper reaction norms of fitness. This is the first study to demonstrate a relationship between population size and fitness trade-offs, and the results are important in understanding the population genetics of ecological specialization and vulnerability to environmental changes.

Analysis of statistical correlations between properties of adaptive walks in fitness landscapes

The fitness landscape metaphor has been central in our way of thinking about adaptation. In this scenario, adaptive walks are idealized dynamics that mimic the uphill movement of an evolving population towards a fitness peak of the landscape. Recent works in experimental evolution have demonstrated that the constraints imposed by epistasis are responsible for reducing the number of accessible mutational pathways towards fitness peaks. Here, we exhaustively analyse the statistical properties of adaptive walks for two empirical fitness landscapes and theoretical NK landscapes. Some general conclusions can be drawn from our simulation study. Regardless of the dynamics, we observe that the shortest paths are more regularly used. Although the accessibility of a given fitness peak is reasonably correlated to the number of monotonic pathways towards it, the two quantities are not exactly proportional. A negative correlation between predictability and mean path divergence is established, and so the decrease of the number of effective mutational pathways ensures the convergence of the attraction basin of fitness peaks. On the other hand, other features are not conserved among fitness landscapes, such as the relationship between accessibility and predictability.

Every which way? On predicting tumor evolution using cancer progression models

Successful prediction of the likely paths of tumor progression is valuable for diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment purposes. Cancer progression models (CPMs) use cross-sectional samples to identify restrictions in the order of accumulation of driver mutations and thus CPMs encode the paths of tumor progression. Here we analyze the performance of four CPMs to examine whether they can be used to predict the true distribution of paths of tumor progression and to estimate evolutionary unpredictability. Employing simulations we show that if fitness landscapes are single peaked (have a single fitness maximum) there is good agreement between true and predicted distributions of paths of tumor progression when sample sizes are large, but performance is poor with the currently common much smaller sample sizes. Under multi-peaked fitness landscapes (i.e., those with multiple fitness maxima), performance is poor and improves only slightly with sample size. In all cases, detection regime (when tumors are sampled) is a key determinant of performance. Estimates of evolutionary unpredictability from the best performing CPM, among the four examined, tend to overestimate the true unpredictability and the bias is affected by detection regime; CPMs could be useful for estimating upper bounds to the true evolutionary unpredictability. Analysis of twenty-two cancer data sets shows low evolutionary unpredictability for several of the data sets. But most of the predictions of paths of tumor progression are very unreliable, and unreliability increases with the number of features analyzed. Our results indicate that CPMs could be valuable tools for predicting cancer progression but that, currently, obtaining useful predictions of paths of tumor progression from CPMs is dubious, and emphasize the need for methodological work that can account for the probably multi-peaked fitness landscapes in cancer.

Cryptic genetic variation accelerates evolution by opening access to diverse adaptive peaks

Cryptic genetic variation can facilitate adaptation in evolving populations. To elucidate the underlying genetic mechanisms, we used directed evolution in Escherichia coli to accumulate variation in populations of yellow fluorescent proteins and then evolved these proteins toward the new phenotype of green fluorescence. Populations with cryptic variation evolved adaptive genotypes with greater diversity and higher fitness than populations without cryptic variation, which converged on similar genotypes. Populations with cryptic variation accumulated neutral or deleterious mutations that break the constraints on the order in which adaptive mutations arise. In doing so, cryptic variation opens paths to adaptive genotypes, creates historical contingency, and reduces the predictability of evolution by allowing different replicate populations to climb different adaptive peaks and explore otherwise-inaccessible regions of an adaptive landscape.

Estimating the predictability of cancer evolution

MOTIVATION

How predictable is the evolution of cancer? This fundamental question is of immense relevance for the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of cancer. Evolutionary biologists have approached the question of predictability based on the underlying fitness landscape. However, empirical fitness landscapes of tumor cells are impossible to determine in vivo. Thus, in order to quantify the predictability of cancer evolution, alternative approaches are required that circumvent the need for fitness landscapes.

RESULTS

We developed a computational method based on conjunctive Bayesian networks (CBNs) to quantify the predictability of cancer evolution directly from mutational data, without the need for measuring or estimating fitness. Using simulated data derived from >200 different fitness landscapes, we show that our CBN-based notion of evolutionary predictability strongly correlates with the classical notion of predictability based on fitness landscapes under the strong selection weak mutation assumption. The statistical framework enables robust and scalable quantification of evolutionary predictability. We applied our approach to driver mutation data from the TCGA and the MSK-IMPACT clinical cohorts to systematically compare the predictability of 15 different cancer types. We found that cancer evolution is remarkably predictable as only a small fraction of evolutionary trajectories are feasible during cancer progression.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

https://github.com/cbg-ethz/predictability\_of\_cancer\_evolution.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Scalable, Continuous Evolution of Genes at Mutation Rates above Genomic Error Thresholds

Directed evolution is a powerful approach for engineering biomolecules and understanding adaptation. However, experimental strategies for directed evolution are notoriously labor intensive and low throughput, limiting access to demanding functions, multiple functions in parallel, and the study of molecular evolution in replicate. We report OrthoRep, an orthogonal DNA polymerase-plasmid pair in yeast that stably mutates ∼100,000-fold faster than the host genome in vivo, exceeding the error threshold of genomic replication that causes single-generation extinction. User-defined genes in OrthoRep continuously and rapidly evolve through serial passaging, a highly straightforward and scalable process. Using OrthoRep, we evolved drug-resistant malarial dihydrofolate reductases (DHFRs) in 90 independent replicates. We uncovered a more complex fitness landscape than previously realized, including common adaptive trajectories constrained by epistasis, rare outcomes that avoid a frequent early adaptive mutation, and a suboptimal fitness peak that occasionally traps evolving populations. OrthoRep enables a new paradigm of routine, high-throughput evolution of biomolecular and cellular function.

(Non)Parallel Evolution

Parallel evolution across replicate populations has provided evolutionary biologists with iconic examples of adaptation. When multiple populations colonize seemingly similar habitats, they may evolve similar genes, traits, or functions. Yet, replicated evolution in nature or in the laboratory often yields inconsistent outcomes: Some replicate populations evolve along highly similar trajectories, whereas other replicate populations evolve to different extents or in distinct directions. To understand these heterogeneous outcomes, biologists are increasingly treating parallel evolution not as a binary phenomenon but rather as a quantitative continuum ranging from parallel to nonparallel. By measuring replicate populations’ positions along this (non)parallel continuum, we can test hypotheses about evolutionary and ecological factors that influence the extent of repeatable evolution. We review evidence regarding the manifestation of (non)parallel evolution in the laboratory, in natural populations, and in applied contexts such as cancer. We enumerate the many genetic, ecological, and evolutionary processes that contribute to variation in the extent of parallel evolution.

Phenotypic Switching Can Speed up Microbial Evolution

Stochastic phenotype switching has been suggested to play a beneficial role in microbial populations by leading to the division of labour among cells, or ensuring that at least some of the population survives an unexpected change in environmental conditions. Here we use a computational model to investigate an alternative possible function of stochastic phenotype switching: as a way to adapt more quickly even in a static environment. We show that when a genetic mutation causes a population to become less fit, switching to an alternative phenotype with higher fitness (growth rate) may give the population enough time to develop compensatory mutations that increase the fitness again. The possibility of switching phenotypes can reduce the time to adaptation by orders of magnitude if the “fitness valley” caused by the deleterious mutation is deep enough. Our work has important implications for the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In line with recent experimental findings, we hypothesise that switching to a slower growing — but less sensitive — phenotype helps bacteria to develop resistance by providing alternative, faster evolutionary routes to resistance.

Mapping the Evolutionary Potential of RNA Viruses

The deterministic force of natural selection and stochastic influence of drift shape RNA virus evolution. New deep-sequencing and microfluidics technologies allow us to quantify the effect of mutations and trace the evolution of viral populations with single-genome and single-nucleotide resolution. Such experiments can reveal the topography of the genotype-fitness landscapes that shape the path of viral evolution. By combining historical analyses, like phylogenetic approaches, with high-throughput and high-resolution evolutionary experiments, we can observe parallel patterns of evolution that drive important phenotypic transitions. These developments provide a framework for quantifying and anticipating potential evolutionary events. Here, we examine emerging technologies that can map the selective landscapes of viruses, focusing on their application to pathogenic viruses. We identify areas where these technologies can bolster our ability to study the evolution of viruses and to anticipate and possibly intervene in evolutionary events and prevent viral disease.

OncoSimulR: genetic simulation with arbitrary epistasis and mutator genes in asexual populations

Summary

OncoSimulR implements forward-time genetic simulations of biallelic loci in asexual populations with special focus on cancer progression. Fitness can be defined as an arbitrary function of genetic interactions between multiple genes or modules of genes, including epistasis, restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations, and order effects. Mutation rates can differ among genes, and can be affected by (anti)mutator genes. Also available are sampling from simulations (including single-cell sampling), plotting the genealogical relationships of clones and generating and plotting fitness landscapes.

Availability and Implementation

Implemented in R and C ++, freely available from BioConductor for Linux, Mac and Windows under the GNU GPL license. Version 2.5.9 or higher available from: http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/devel/bioc/html/OncoSimulR.html. GitHub repository at: https://github.com/rdiaz02/OncoSimul

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Evolution of larval competitiveness and associated life-history traits in response to host shifts in a seed beetle

Resource competition is frequently strong among parasites that feed within small discrete resource patches, such as seeds or fruits. The properties of a host can influence the behavioural, morphological and life-history traits of associated parasites, including traits that mediate competition within the host. For seed parasites, host size may be an especially important determinant of competitive ability. Using the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, we performed replicated, reciprocal host shifts to examine the role of seed size in determining larval competitiveness and associated traits. Populations ancestrally associated with either a small host (mung bean) or a large one (cowpea) were switched to each other's host for 36 generations. Compared to control lines (those remaining on the ancestral host), lines switched from the small host to the large host evolved greater tolerance of co-occurring larvae within seeds (indicated by an increase in the frequency of small seeds yielding two adults), smaller egg size and higher fecundity. Each change occurred in the direction predicted by the traits of populations already adapted to cowpea. However, we did not observe the expected decline in adult mass following the shift to the larger host. Moreover, lines switched from the large host (cowpea) to the small host (mung bean) did not evolve the predicted increase in larval competitiveness or egg size, but did exhibit the predicted increase in body mass. Our results thus provide mixed support for the hypothesis that host size determines the evolution of competition-related traits of seed beetles. Evolutionary responses to the two host shifts were consistent among replicate lines, but the evolution of larval competition was asymmetric, with larval competitiveness evolving as predicted in one direction of host shift, but not the reverse. Nevertheless, our results indicate that switching hosts is sufficient to produce repeatable and rapid changes in the competition strategy and fitness-related traits of insect populations.

Key issues review: evolution on rugged adaptive landscapes

Adaptive landscapes represent a mapping between genotype and fitness. Rugged adaptive landscapes contain two or more adaptive peaks: allele combinations with higher fitness than any of their neighbors in the genetic space. How do populations evolve on such rugged landscapes? Evolutionary biologists have struggled with this question since it was first introduced in the 1930s by Sewall Wright. Discoveries in the fields of genetics and biochemistry inspired various mathematical models of adaptive landscapes. The development of landscape models led to numerous theoretical studies analyzing evolution on rugged landscapes under different biological conditions. The large body of theoretical work suggests that adaptive landscapes are major determinants of the progress and outcome of evolutionary processes. Recent technological advances in molecular biology and microbiology allow experimenters to measure adaptive values of large sets of allele combinations and construct empirical adaptive landscapes for the first time. Such empirical landscapes have already been generated in bacteria, yeast, viruses, and fungi, and are contributing to new insights about evolution on adaptive landscapes. In this Key Issues Review we will: (i) introduce the concept of adaptive landscapes; (ii) review the major theoretical studies of evolution on rugged landscapes; (iii) review some of the recently obtained empirical adaptive landscapes; (iv) discuss recent mathematical and statistical analyses motivated by empirical adaptive landscapes, as well as provide the reader with instructions and source code to implement simulations of evolution on adaptive landscapes; and (v) discuss possible future directions for this exciting field.

Divergent evolution peaks under intermediate population bottlenecks during bacterial experimental evolution

There is growing evidence that parallel molecular evolution is common, but its causes remain poorly understood. Demographic parameters such as population bottlenecks are predicted to be major determinants of parallelism. Here, we test the hypothesis that bottleneck intensity shapes parallel evolution by elucidating the genomic basis of adaptation to antibiotic-supplemented media in hundreds of populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens Pf0-1. As expected, bottlenecking decreased the rate of phenotypic and molecular adaptation. Surprisingly, bottlenecking had no impact on the likelihood of parallel adaptive molecular evolution at a genome-wide scale. However, bottlenecking had a profound impact on the genes involved in antibiotic resistance. Specifically, under either intense or weak bottlenecking, resistance predominantly evolved by strongly beneficial mutations which provide high levels of antibiotic resistance. In contrast with intermediate bottlenecking regimes, resistance evolved by a greater diversity of genetic mechanisms, significantly reducing the observed levels of parallel genetic evolution. Our results demonstrate that population bottlenecking can be a major predictor of parallel evolution, but precisely how may be more complex than many simple theoretical predictions.