Evolutionary tipping points in the capacity to adapt to environmental change

Continuously fluctuating selection reveals fine granularity of adaptation

Temporally fluctuating environmental conditions are a ubiquitous feature of natural habitats. Yet, how finely natural populations adaptively track fluctuating selection pressures via shifts in standing genetic variation is unknown1,2. Here we generated genome-wide allele frequency data every 1-2 generations from a genetically diverse population of Drosophila melanogaster in extensively replicated field mesocosms from late June to mid-December (a period of approximately 12 total generations). Adaptation throughout the fundamental ecological phases of population expansion, peak density and collapse was underpinned by extremely rapid, parallel changes in genomic variation across replicates. Yet, the dominant direction of selection fluctuated repeatedly, even within each of these ecological phases. Comparing patterns of change in allele frequency to an independent dataset procured from the same experimental system demonstrated that the targets of selection are predictable across years. In concert, our results reveal a fitness relevance of standing variation that is likely to be masked by inference approaches based on static population sampling or insufficiently resolved time-series data. We propose that such fine-scaled, temporally fluctuating selection may be an important force contributing to the maintenance of functional genetic variation in natural populations and an important stochastic force impacting genome-wide patterns of diversity at linked neutral sites, akin to genetic draft.

Intergenerational effects of ocean temperature variation: Early life benefits are short-lived in threespine stickleback

Current climate change models predict an increase in temperature variability and extreme events such as heatwaves, and organisms need to cope with consequent changes to environmental variation. Non-genetic inheritance mechanisms can enable parental generations to prime their offspring's abilities to acclimate to environmental change-but they may also be deleterious. When parents are exposed to predictable environments, intergenerational plasticity can lead to better offspring trait performance in matching environments. Alternatively, parents exposed to variable or unpredictable environments may use plastic bet-hedging strategies to adjust the phenotypic variance among offspring. Here, we used a model species, the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), to test whether putatively adaptive intergenerational effects can occur in response to shifts in environmental variation as well as to shifts in environmental mean, and whether parents employ plastic bet-hedging strategies in response to increasing environmental variation. We used a full-factorial, split-clutch experiment with parents and offspring exposed to three temperature regimes: constant, natural variation, and increased variation. We show that within-generation exposure to increased temperature variation reduces growth of offspring, but having parents that were exposed to natural temperature variation during gametogenesis may offset some early-life negative growth effects. However, these mitigating intergenerational effects do not appear to persist later in life. We found no indication that stickleback mothers plastically altered offspring phenotypic variance (egg size or clutch size) in response to temperature variation. However, lower inter-individual variance of juvenile fish morphology in offspring of increased variation parents may imply the presence of conservative bet-hedging strategies in natural populations. Overall, in our experiment, parental exposure to temperature variation had limited effects on offspring fitness-related traits. Natural levels of environmental variation promoted a potentially adaptive intergenerational response in early life development, but under more challenging conditions associated with increased environmental variation, the effect was lost.

Emergence of phenotypic plasticity through epigenetic mechanisms

Plasticity is found in all domains of life and is particularly relevant when populations experience variable environmental conditions. Traditionally, evolutionary models of plasticity are non-mechanistic: they typically view reactions norms as the target of selection, without considering the underlying genetics explicitly. Consequently, there have been difficulties in understanding the emergence of plasticity, and in explaining its limits and costs. In this paper, we offer a novel mechanistic approximation for the emergence and evolution of plasticity. We simulate random "epigenetic mutations" in the genotype-phenotype mapping, of the kind enabled by DNA-methylations/demethylations. The frequency of epigenetic mutations at loci affecting the phenotype is sensitive to organism stress (trait-environment mismatch), but is also genetically determined and evolvable. Thus, the "random motion" of epigenetic markers enables developmental learning-like behaviors that can improve adaptation within the limits imposed by the genotypes. However, with random motion being "goal-less," this mechanism is also vulnerable to developmental noise leading to maladaptation. Our individual-based simulations show that epigenetic mutations can hide alleles that are temporarily unfavorable, thus enabling cryptic genetic variation. These alleles can be advantageous at later times, under regimes of environmental change, in spite of the accumulation of genetic loads. Simulations also demonstrate that plasticity is favored by natural selection in constant environments, but more under periodic environmental change. Plasticity also evolves under directional environmental change as long as the pace of change is not too fast and costs are low.

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

The interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in dispersal decisions in metacommunities

Suitable conditions for species to survive and reproduce constitute their ecological niche, which is built by abiotic conditions and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics. Organisms should ideally assess and use information about all these environmental dimensions to adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their own internal conditions. Dispersal plasticity is often considered through its dependence on abiotic conditions or conspecific density and, to a lesser extent, with reference to the effects of interactions with heterospecifics, potentially leading to misinterpretation of dispersal drivers. Here, we first review the evidence for the effects of and the potential interplays between abiotic factors, biotic interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics and phenotype on dispersal decisions. We then present an experimental test of these potential interplays, investigating the effects of density and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics on temperature-dependent dispersal in microcosms of Tetrahymena ciliates. We found significant differences in dispersal rates depending on the temperature, density and presence of another strain or species. However, the presence and density of conspecifics and heterospecifics had no effects on the thermal-dependency of dispersal. We discuss the causes and consequences of the (lack of) interplay between the different environmental dimensions and the phenotype for metacommunity assembly and dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Drivers of biological response to fluctuating seawater ph conditions in sea urchin echinus esculentus larvae

A large body of evidence is documenting the impact of reduced pH on marine species and ecosystems. This information is used to infer the present and future impacts of ocean acidification. However, a vast majority of the studies were performed using constant pH and the high level of pH variability experienced by marine organisms on the coastal zone was often overlooked. Recent studies highlight the key role of this variability in driving biological response to pH as well as species sensitivity to ocean acidification. For example, it was hypothesized that because of local adaptation, the extreme of the present range of pH variability is a good predictor for local biological thresholds. Using a complex experimental design, we investigated what part of the pH variability is driving the biological response of the sea urchin Echinus esculentus larvae. Comparing stable (pH 8.13, 7.82, 7.53) and fluctuating treatments (12 h at pH 8.13 and 12 h at pH 7.53) following natural or inverted diurnal cycles, we were able to show that (i) under constant conditions, low pH deviating from the present range of natural variability had a negative effect on larval growth rate and calcification; (ii) under fluctuating conditions, a desynchronization of the pH variation with the photoperiod led to decreased larval growth rate and calcification; (iii) overall, larval fitness (survival, growth and calcification) was higher under fluctuating conditions as compared to constant. While these data do not support the hypothesis that the minimum pH is the main driver of the biological response, they provide evidence of adaptation to variability in a coastal species with associated a cost of plasticity but not a cost of canalization.

Phenotypic memory in quorum sensing

Quorum sensing (QS) is a regulatory mechanism used by bacteria to coordinate group behavior in response to high cell densities. During QS, cells monitor the concentration of external signals, known as autoinducers, as a proxy for cell density. QS often involves positive feedback loops, leading to the upregulation of genes associated with QS signal production and detection. This results in distinct steady-state concentrations of QS-related molecules in QS-ON and QS-OFF states. Due to the slow decay rates of biomolecules such as proteins, even after removal of the initial stimuli, cells can retain elevated levels of QS-associated biomolecules for extended periods of time. This persistence of biomolecules after the removal of the initial stimuli has the potential to impact the response to future stimuli, indicating a memory of past exposure. This phenomenon, which is a consequence of the carry-over of biomolecules rather than genetic inheritance, is known as "phenotypic" memory. This theoretical study aims to investigate the presence of phenotypic memory in QS and the conditions that influence this memory. Numerical simulations based on ordinary differential equations and analytical modeling were used to study gene expression in response to sudden changes in cell density and extracellular signal concentrations. The model examined the effect of various cellular parameters on the strength of QS memory and the impact on gene regulatory dynamics. The findings revealed that QS memory has a transient effect on the expression of QS-responsive genes. These consequences of QS memory depend strongly on how cell density was perturbed, as well as various cellular parameters, including the Fold Change in the expression of QS-regulated genes, the autoinducer synthesis rate, the autoinducer threshold required for activation, and the cell growth rate.

Variation in season length and development time is sufficient to drive the emergence and coexistence of social and solitary behavioral strategies

Season length and its associated variables can influence the expression of social behaviors, including the occurrence of eusociality in insects. Eusociality can vary widely across environmental gradients, both within and between different species. Numerous theoretical models have been developed to examine the life history traits that underlie the emergence and maintenance of eusociality, yet the impact of seasonality on this process is largely uncharacterized. Here, we present a theoretical model that incorporates season length and offspring development time into a single, individual-focused model to examine how these factors can shape the costs and benefits of social living. We find that longer season lengths and faster brood development times are sufficient to favor the emergence and maintenance of a social strategy, while shorter seasons favor a solitary one. We also identify a range of season lengths where social and solitary strategies can coexist. Moreover, our theoretical predictions are well-matched to the natural history and behavior of two flexibly-eusocial bee species, suggesting our model can make realistic predictions about the evolution of different social strategies. Broadly, this work reveals the crucial role that environmental conditions can have in shaping social behavior and its evolution and underscores the need for further models that explicitly incorporate such variation to study evolutionary trajectories of eusociality.

Unpredictable benefits of social information can lead to the evolution of individual differences in social learning

Human ecological success is often attributed to our capacity for social learning, which facilitates the spread of adaptive behaviours through populations. All humans rely on social learning to acquire culture, but there is substantial variation across societies, between individuals and over developmental time. However, it is unclear why these differences exist. Here, we present an evolutionary model showing that individual variation in social learning can emerge if the benefits of social learning are unpredictable. Unpredictability selects for flexible developmental programmes that allow individuals to update their reliance on social learning based on previous experiences. This developmental flexibility, in turn, causes some individuals in a population to end up consistently relying more heavily on social learning than others. We demonstrate this core evolutionary mechanism across three scenarios of increasing complexity, investigating the impact of different sources of uncertainty about the usefulness of social learning. Our results show how evolution can shape how individuals learn to learn from others, with potentially profound effects on cultural diversity.

Phenotypic plasticity in the sailfin molly III: Geographic variation in reaction norms of growth and maturation to temperature and salinity

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a single genotype to produce different phenotypes under different environmental conditions, plays a profound role in several areas of evolutionary biology. One important role is as an adaptation to a variable environment. While plasticity is extremely well documented in response to many environmental factors, there is controversy over how much of that plasticity is adaptive. Evidence is also mixed over how often conspecific populations display qualitative differences in the nature of plasticity. We present data on the reaction norms of growth and maturation to variation in temperature and salinity in male and female sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) from three locally adjacent populations from South Carolina (SC). We compare these reaction norms to those previously reported in locally adjacent populations from north Florida (NF). In general, patterns of plasticity in fish from SC were similar to those in fish from NF. The magnitude of plasticity differed; fish from SC displayed less plasticity than fish from NF. This was because SC fish grew faster and matured earlier at the lower temperatures and salinities compared to NF fish. This is a countergradient pattern of variation, in which SC fish grew faster and matured earlier in conditions that would otherwise slow growth and delay maturity. Among fish from both regions, males were much less plastic than females, especially for length at maturity. While there was no detectable heterogeneity among populations from NF, males from one of the SC populations, which is furthest from the other two, displayed a qualitatively different response in age at maturity to temperature variation than did males from the other two SC populations. The pattern of population variation in plasticity within and among regions suggests that gene flow, which diminishes with distance in sailfin mollies, plays a critical role in constraining divergence in norms of reaction.

Phenotypic plasticity and the effects of thermal fluctuations on specialists and generalists

Classical theories predict that relatively constant environments should generally favour specialists, while fluctuating environments should be selected for generalists. However, theoretical and empirical results have pointed out that generalist organisms might, on the contrary, perform poorly under fluctuations. In particular, if generalism is underlaid by phenotypic plasticity, performance of generalists should be modulated by the temporal characteristics of environmental fluctuations. Here, we used experiments in microcosms of Tetrahymena thermophila ciliates and a mathematical model to test whether the period or autocorrelation of thermal fluctuations mediate links between the level of generalism and the performance of organisms under fluctuations. In the experiment, thermal fluctuations consistently impeded performance compared with constant conditions. However, the intensity of this effect depended on the level of generalism: while the more specialist strains performed better under fast or negatively autocorrelated fluctuations, plastic generalists performed better under slow or positively autocorrelated fluctuations. Our model suggests that these effects of fluctuations on organisms' performance may result from a time delay in the expression of plasticity, restricting its benefits to slow enough fluctuations. This study points out the need to further investigate the temporal dynamics of phenotypic plasticity to better predict its fitness consequences under environmental fluctuations.

Testing frameworks for early life effects: the developmental constraints and adaptive response hypotheses do not explain key fertility outcomes in wild female baboons

In evolutionary ecology, two classes of explanations are frequently invoked to explain "early life effects" on adult outcomes. Developmental constraints (DC) explanations contend that costs of early adversity arise from limitations adversity places on optimal development. Adaptive response (AR) hypotheses propose that later life outcomes will be worse when early and adult environments are poorly "matched." Here, we use recently proposed mathematical definitions for these hypotheses and a quadratic-regression based approach to test the long-term consequences of variation in developmental environments on fertility in wild baboons. We evaluate whether low rainfall and/or dominance rank during development predict three female fertility measures in adulthood, and whether any observed relationships are consistent with DC and/or AR. Neither rainfall during development nor the difference between rainfall in development and adulthood predicted any fertility measures. Females who were low-ranking during development had an elevated risk of losing infants later in life, and greater change in rank between development and adulthood predicted greater risk of infant loss. However, both effects were statistically marginal and consistent with alternative explanations, including adult environmental quality effects. Consequently, our data do not provide compelling support for either of these common explanations for the evolution of early life effects.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Continuously fluctuating selection reveals extreme granularity and parallelism of adaptive tracking

Temporally fluctuating environmental conditions are a ubiquitous feature of natural habitats. Yet, how finely natural populations adaptively track fluctuating selection pressures via shifts in standing genetic variation is unknown. We generated high-frequency, genome-wide allele frequency data from a genetically diverse population of Drosophila melanogaster in extensively replicated field mesocosms from late June to mid-December, a period of ∼12 generations. Adaptation throughout the fundamental ecological phases of population expansion, peak density, and collapse was underpinned by extremely rapid, parallel changes in genomic variation across replicates. Yet, the dominant direction of selection fluctuated repeatedly, even within each of these ecological phases. Comparing patterns of allele frequency change to an independent dataset procured from the same experimental system demonstrated that the targets of selection are predictable across years. In concert, our results reveal fitness-relevance of standing variation that is likely to be masked by inference approaches based on static population sampling, or insufficiently resolved time-series data. We propose such fine-scaled temporally fluctuating selection may be an important force maintaining functional genetic variation in natural populations and an important stochastic force affecting levels of standing genetic variation genome-wide.

Individual variation in thermally induced plasticity of metabolic rates: ecological and evolutionary implications for a warming world

Energy metabolism is a fundamental property of life providing the energy for all processes and functions within an organism. As it is temperature-dependent, it mediates the effects of changing climate on ectotherm fitness and population dynamics. Though resting metabolic rate is a highly labile trait, part of its variation is individually consistent. Recent findings show that resting metabolic rate contains consistent variation not only in the elevations (intercepts) but also in the slopes of individual thermal dependence curves, challenging the thermal dependence assumption for this trait in several ectotherm taxa. I argue that among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves represents a previously undetected component of ectotherm response to climate change, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and population resilience under increasing stochasticity of thermal environment. Future studies need to examine not only the amount of among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves across phylogenetic contexts but also other aspects concerning its mechanisms and adaptive significance to improve predictions about the impact of climate change on ectotherm population dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary significance of variation in metabolic rates'.

A cosmopolitan inversion facilitates seasonal adaptation in overwintering Drosophila

Fluctuations in the strength and direction of natural selection through time are a ubiquitous feature of life on Earth. One evolutionary outcome of such fluctuations is adaptive tracking, wherein populations rapidly adapt from standing genetic variation. In certain circumstances, adaptive tracking can lead to the long-term maintenance of functional polymorphism despite allele frequency change due to selection. Although adaptive tracking is likely a common process, we still have a limited understanding of aspects of its genetic architecture and its strength relative to other evolutionary forces such as drift. Drosophila melanogaster living in temperate regions evolve to track seasonal fluctuations and are an excellent system to tackle these gaps in knowledge. By sequencing orchard populations collected across multiple years, we characterized the genomic signal of seasonal demography and identified that the cosmopolitan inversion In(2L)t facilitates seasonal adaptive tracking and shows molecular footprints of selection. A meta-analysis of phenotypic studies shows that seasonal loci within In(2L)t are associated with behavior, life history, physiology, and morphological traits. We identify candidate loci and experimentally link them to phenotype. Our work contributes to our general understanding of fluctuating selection and highlights the evolutionary outcome and dynamics of contemporary selection on inversions.

Heritability and developmental plasticity of growth in an oviparous lizard

Selective processes act on phenotypic variation although the evolutionary potential of a trait relies on the underlying heritable variation. Developmental plasticity is an important source of phenotypic variation, but it can also promote changes in genetic variation, yet we have a limited understanding of how they are both impacted. Here, we quantified the influence of developmental temperature on growth in delicate skinks (Lampropholis delicata) and partitioned total phenotypic variance using an animal model fitted with a genomic relatedness matrix. We measured mass for 261 individuals (nhot = 125, ncold = 136) over 16 months (nobservations = 3002) and estimated heritability and maternal effects over time. Our results show that lizards reared in cold developmental temperatures had consistently higher mass across development compared to lizards that were reared in hot developmental temperatures. However, developmental temperature did not impact the rate of growth. On average, additive genetic variance, maternal effects and heritability were higher in the hot developmental temperature treatment; however, these differences were not statistically significant. Heritability increased with age, whereas maternal effects decreased upon hatching but increased again at a later age, which could be driven by social competition or intrinsic changes in the expression of variation as an individual's growth. Our work suggests that the evolutionary potential of growth is complex, age-dependent and not overtly affected by extremes in natural nest temperatures.

Beyond the (geometric) mean: stochastic models undermine deterministic predictions of bet hedger evolution

Bet hedging is a ubiquitous strategy for risk reduction in the face of unpredictable environmental change where a lineage lowers its variance in fitness across environments at the expense of also lowering its arithmetic mean fitness. Classically, the benefit of bet hedging has been quantified using geometric mean fitness (GMF); bet hedging is expected to evolve if and only if it has a higher GMF than the wild-type. We build upon previous research on the effect of incorporating stochasticity in phenotypic distribution, environment, and reproduction to investigate the extent to which these sources of stochasticity will impact the evolution of real-world bet hedging traits. We utilize both individual-based simulations and Markov chain numerics to demonstrate that modeling stochasticity can alter the sign of selection for the bet hedger compared to deterministic predictions. We find that bet hedging can be deleterious at small population sizes and beneficial at larger population sizes. This non-monotonic dependence of the sign of selection on population size, known as sign inversion, exists across parameter space for both conservative and diversified bet hedgers. We apply our model to published data of bet hedging strategies to show that sign inversion exists for biologically relevant parameters in two study systems: Papaver dubium, an annual poppy with variable germination phenology, and Salmonella typhimurium, a pathogenic bacteria that exhibits antibiotic persistence. Taken together, our results suggest that GMF is not enough to predict when bet hedging is adaptive.

A neural network model for the evolution of learning in changing environments

Learning from past experience is an important adaptation and theoretical models may help to understand its evolution. Many of the existing models study simple phenotypes and do not consider the mechanisms underlying learning while the more complex neural network models often make biologically unrealistic assumptions and rarely consider evolutionary questions. Here, we present a novel way of modelling learning using small neural networks and a simple, biology-inspired learning algorithm. Learning affects only part of the network, and it is governed by the difference between expectations and reality. We use this model to study the evolution of learning under various environmental conditions and different scenarios for the trade-off between exploration (learning) and exploitation (foraging). Efficient learning readily evolves in our individual-based simulations. However, in line with previous studies, the evolution of learning is less likely in relatively constant environments, where genetic adaptation alone can lead to efficient foraging, or in short-lived organisms that cannot afford to spend much of their lifetime on exploration. Once learning does evolve, the characteristics of the learning strategy (i.e. the duration of the learning period and the learning rate) and the average performance after learning are surprisingly little affected by the frequency and/or magnitude of environmental change. In contrast, an organism's lifespan and the distribution of resources in the environment have a clear effect on the evolved learning strategy: a shorter lifespan or a broader resource distribution lead to fewer learning episodes and larger learning rates. Interestingly, a longer learning period does not always lead to better performance, indicating that the evolved neural networks differ in the effectiveness of learning. Overall, however, we show that a biologically inspired, yet relatively simple, learning mechanism can evolve to lead to an efficient adaptation in a changing environment.

Beyond reaction norms: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity can allow organisms to cope with environmental changes. Although reaction norms are commonly used to quantify plasticity along gradients of environmental conditions, they often miss the temporal dynamics of phenotypic change, especially the speed at which it occurs. Here, we argue that studying the rate of phenotypic plasticity is a crucial step to quantify and understand its adaptiveness. Iteratively measuring plastic traits allows us to describe the actual dynamics of phenotypic changes and avoid quantifying reaction norms at times that do not truly reflect the organism's capacity for plasticity. Integrating the temporal component in how we describe, quantify, and conceptualise phenotypic plasticity can change our understanding of its diversity, evolution, and consequences.

Chasing the fitness optimum: temporal variation in the genetic and environmental expression of life-history traits for a perennial plant

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ability of plants to track shifting fitness optima is crucial within the context of global change, where increasing environmental extremes may have dramatic consequences for life history, fitness, and ultimately population persistence. However, tracking changing conditions relies on the relationship between genetic and environmental variance, where selection may favour plasticity, the evolution of genetic differences, or both depending on the spatial and temporal scale of environmental heterogeneity.

METHODS

Over three years, we compared the genetic and environmental components of phenological and life-history variation in a common environment for the spring perennial Geum triflorum. Populations were sourced from alvar habitats that exhibit extreme but predictable annual flood-desiccation cycles and prairie habitats that exhibit similar but less predictable variation in water availability.

KEY RESULTS

Heritability was generally higher for early life-history (emergence probability) relative to later life-history traits (total seed mass), indicating that traits associated with establishment are under stronger genetic control relative to later life-history fitness expressions, where plasticity may play a larger role. This pattern was particularly notable in seeds sourced from environmentally extreme but predictable alvar habitats relative to less predictable prairie environments. Fitness landscapes based on seed source origin, largely characterized by varying water availability and flower production, described selection as the degree of maladaptation of seed source environment relative to the prairie common garden environment. Plants from alvar populations were consistently closer to the fitness optimum across all years. Annually, the breadth of the fitness optimum expanded primarily along a moisture gradient, with inclusion of more populations onto the expanding optimum.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of temporally and spatially varying selection in life-history evolution, indicating plasticity may become a primary mechanism needed to track fitness for later life-history events within perennial systems.

Adaptation to climate change through dispersal and inherited timing in an avian migrant

Many organisms fail to adjust their phenology sufficiently to climate change. Studies have concentrated on adaptive responses within localities, but little is known about how latitudinal dispersal enhances evolutionary potential. Rapid adaptation is expected if dispersers from lower latitudes have improved synchrony to northern conditions, thereby gain fitness and introduce genotypes on which selection acts. Here we provide experimental evidence that dispersal in an avian migrant enables rapid evolutionary adaptation. We translocated Dutch female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and eggs to Sweden, where breeding phenology is ~15 days later. Translocated females bred earlier, and their fitness was 2.5 times higher than local Swedish flycatchers. We show that between-population variation in timing traits is highly heritable, and hence immigration of southern genotypes promotes the necessary evolutionary response. We conclude that studies on adaptation to large-scale environmental change should not just focus on plasticity and evolution based on standing genetic variation but should also include phenotype-habitat matching through dispersal as a viable route to adjust.

The evolutionary ecology of variation in labile traits: selection on its among- and within-individual components

Closer integration between behavioral ecology and quantitative genetics has resulted in a recent increase in studies partitioning sources of variation in labile traits. Repeatable between-individual differences are commonly documented, and their existence is generally explained using adaptive arguments, implying that selection has shaped variation at the among- and within-individual level. However, predicting the expected pattern of non-adaptive phenotypic variation around an optimal phenotypic value is difficult, hampering our ability to provide quantitative assessments of the adaptive nature of observed patterns of phenotypic variation within a population. We argue that estimating the strength of selection on trait variation among and within individuals provides a way to test adaptive theory concerned with phenotypic variation. To achieve this aim, we describe a nonlinear selection analysis that enables the study of the selective pressures on trait means and their among- and within-individual variation. By describing an integrative approach for studying the strength of selection on phenotypic variation at different levels, we hope to stimulate empirical studies investigating the ecological factors that can shape the repeatability, heritability, and coefficients of variation of labile and other repeatedly expressed traits.

Understanding Organisms Using Ecological Observatory Networks

Human activities are rapidly changing ecosystems around the world. These changes have widespread implications for the preservation of biodiversity, agricultural productivity, prevalence of zoonotic diseases, and sociopolitical conflict. To understand and improve the predictive capacity for these and other biological phenomena, some scientists are now relying on observatory networks, which are often composed of systems of sensors, teams of field researchers, and databases of abiotic and biotic measurements across multiple temporal and spatial scales. One well-known example is NEON, the US-based National Ecological Observatory Network. Although NEON and similar networks have informed studies of population, community, and ecosystem ecology for years, they have been minimally used by organismal biologists. NEON provides organismal biologists, in particular those interested in NEON's focal taxa, with an unprecedented opportunity to study phenomena such as range expansions, disease epidemics, invasive species colonization, macrophysiology, and other biological processes that fundamentally involve organismal variation. Here, we use NEON as an exemplar of the promise of observatory networks for understanding the causes and consequences of morphological, behavioral, molecular, and physiological variation among individual organisms.

Social and early life determinants of survival from cradle to grave: A case study in wild baboons

Field studies of natural mammal populations present powerful opportunities to investigate the determinants of health and aging using fine-grained observations of known individuals across the life course. Here, we synthesize five decades of findings from one such study: the wild baboons of the Amboseli ecosystem in Kenya. First, we discuss the profound associations between early life adversity, adult social conditions, and key aging outcomes in this population, especially survival. Second, we review potential mediators of the relationship between early life adversity and survival in our population. Notably, our tests of two leading candidate mediators-social isolation and glucocorticoid levels-fail to identify a single, strong mediator of early life effects on adult survival. Instead, early adversity, social isolation, and glucocorticoids are independently linked to adult lifespans, suggesting considerable scope for mitigating the negative consequences of early life adversity. Third, we review our work on the evolutionary rationale for early life effects on mortality, which currently argues against clear predictive adaptive responses. Finally, we end by highlighting major themes emerging from the study of sociality, development, and aging in the Amboseli baboons, as well as important open questions for future work.

The Effect of Habitat on Insect Movements: Experimental Evidence from Wild-Caught Butterflies

There is broad evidence that the main driver of the ongoing biodiversity crisis is land-use change, which reduces and fragments habitats. The consequence of habitat fragmentation on behavioural responses of fitness-related traits in insects have been so far understudied. In herbivorous insects, oviposition-related behaviours determine access to larval food, and the fate of the next generation. We present a pilot study to assess differences in behaviours related to movement and oviposition in Limenitis camilla butterflies from Wallonia (Belgium), one of the most fragmented regions in Europe. We first quantified variation in functional habitat connectivity across Wallonia and found that fragmented habitats had more abundant, but less evenly distributed host plants of L. camilla. Secondly, we quantified the behaviours of field-caught L. camilla females originating from habitats with contrasted landscape connectivity in an outdoor experimental setting. We found differences in behaviours related to flight investment: butterflies from fragmented woodlands spent more time in departing flight, which we associated with dispersal, than butterflies from homogenous woodlands. Although results from this study should be interpreted with caution given the limited sample size, they provide valuable insights for the advancement of behavioural research that aims to assess the effects of global changes on insects.

Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Brood size in an uncertain world

Reproduction in an uncertain world is fraught. The consequences of investing in too many offspring in a resource poor season can be disastrous but so too is missing the opportunity of a resource rich year. We consider a simple population and individual growth model and use Lyapunov exponents to find analytical results for the optimum brood size under stochastic environmental conditions. We show that if the environment shows dramatic changes between breeding seasons choosing a smaller brood size is more likely to be successful but the best strategy is to synchronize your reproduction to the food availability. Finally, we show that if the cost of having offspring is high it can be better to live in a highly varying world with a plastic strategy that synchronizes to the environment than to live in a deterministic world with a constant strategy, a finding with implications for invasive species and climate change.

Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications

Mountains harbor a significant number of the World's biodiversity, both on tropical and temperate regions. Notably, one crucial gap in conservation is the consideration of historical and contemporary patterns influencing differential distribution in small mammal mountain species and how climate change will affect their distribution and survival. The mice Peromyscus mexicanus species group is distributed across mountains in Guatemala-Chiapas and Central America, which experienced significant effects of glacial and interglacial cycles. We determined phylogeographic and demographic patterns of lowlands and highlands mountain lineages, revealing that the radiation of modern P. mexicanus lineages occurred during the Pleistocene (ca. 2.6 mya) along Nuclear Central America. In concert with climatic cycles and the distribution of habitats, lowland and highland lineages showed recent population size increase and decrease, respectively. We also estimated the current and future distribution ranges for six lineages, finding marked area size increase for two lineages for which vegetation type and distribution would facilitate migrating towards higher elevations. Contrastingly, three lineages showed range size decrease; their ecological requirements make them highly susceptible to future habitat loss. Our findings are clear evidence of the negative impacts of future climate change, while our ability to manage and conserve these vulnerable ecosystems and mountain species is contingent on our understanding of the implications of climate change on the distribution, ecology, and genetics of wildlife populations.

Bet-hedging via dispersal aids the evolution of plastic responses to unreliable cues

Adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve when informative cues predict environmental variation. However, plastic responses can be maladaptive even when those cues are informative, if prediction mistakes are shared across members of a generation. These fitness costs can constrain the evolution of plasticity when initial plastic mutants use of cues of only moderate reliability. Here, we model the barriers to the evolution of plasticity produced by these constraints and show that dispersal across a metapopulation can overcome them. Constraints are also lessened, though not eliminated, when plastic responses are free to evolve gradually and in concert with increased reliability. Each of these factors be viewed as a form of bet-hedging: by lessening correlations in the fates of relatives, dispersal acts as diversifying bet-hedging, while producing submaximal responses to a cue can be understood as a conservative bet-hedging strategy. While poor information may constrain the evolution of plasticity, the opportunity for bet-hedging may predict when that constraint can be overcome.

Disturbance of primary producer communities disrupts the thermal limits of the associated aquatic fauna

Environmental fluctuation forms a framework of variability within which species have evolved. Environmental fluctuation includes predictability, such as diel cycles of aquatic oxygen fluctuation driven by primary producers. Oxygen availability and fluctuation shape the physiological responses of aquatic animals to warming, so that, in theory, oxygen fluctuation could influence their thermal ecology. We describe annual oxygen variability in agricultural drainage channels and show that disruption of oxygen fluctuation through dredging of plants reduces the thermal tolerance of freshwater animals. We compared the temperature responses of snails, amphipods, leeches and mussels exposed to either natural oxygen fluctuation or constant oxygen in situ under different acclimation periods. Oxygen saturation in channel water ranged from c. 0 % saturation at night to >300 % during the day. Temperature showed normal seasonal variation and was almost synchronous with daily oxygen fluctuation. A dredging event in 2020 dramatically reduced dissolved oxygen variability and the correlation between oxygen and temperature was lost. The tolerance of invertebrates to thermal stress was significantly lower when natural fluctuation in oxygen availability was reduced and decoupled from temperature. This highlights the importance of natural cycles of variability and the need to include finer scale effects, including indirect biological effects, in modelling the ecosystem-level consequences of climate change. Furthermore, restoration and management of primary producers in aquatic habitats could be important to improve the thermal protection of aquatic invertebrates and their resistance to environmental variation imposed by climate change.

Experimental evolution of evolutionary potential in fluctuating environments

Variation is the raw material for evolution. Evolutionary potential is determined by the amount of genetic variation, but evolution can also alter the visibility of genetic variation to natural selection. Fluctuating environments are suggested to maintain genetic variation but they can also affect environmental variance, and thus, the visibility of genetic variation to natural selection. However, experimental studies testing these ideas are relatively scarce. In order to determine differences in evolutionary potential we quantified variance attributable to population, genotype and environment for populations of the bacterium Serratia marcescens. These populations had been experimentally evolved in constant and two fluctuating environments. We found that strains that evolved in fluctuating environments exhibited larger environmental variation suggesting that adaptation to fluctuations has decreased the visibility of genetic variation to selection.

Frank Beach Award Winner: The centrality of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis in dealing with environmental change across temporal scales

Understanding if and how individuals and populations cope with environmental change is an enduring question in evolutionary ecology that has renewed importance given the pace of change in the Anthropocene. Two evolutionary strategies of coping with environmental change may be particularly important in rapidly changing environments: adaptive phenotypic plasticity and/or bet hedging. Adaptive plasticity could enable individuals to match their phenotypes to the expected environment if there is an accurate cue predicting the selective environment. Diversifying bet hedging involves the production of seemingly random phenotypes in an unpredictable environment, some of which may be adaptive. Here, I review the central role of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and glucocorticoids (GCs) in enabling vertebrates to cope with environmental change through adaptive plasticity and bet hedging. I first describe how the HPA axis mediates three types of adaptive plasticity to cope with environmental change (evasion, tolerance, recovery) over short timescales (e.g., 1-3 generations) before discussing how the implications of GCs on phenotype integration may depend upon the timescale under consideration. GCs can promote adaptive phenotypic integration, but their effects on phenotypic co-variation could also limit the dimensions of phenotypic space explored by animals over longer timescales. Finally, I discuss how organismal responses to environmental stressors can act as a bet hedging mechanism and therefore enhance evolvability by increasing genetic or phenotypic variability or reducing patterns of genetic and phenotypic co-variance. Together, this emphasizes the crucial role of the HPA axis in understanding fundamental questions in evolutionary ecology.

Is a seasonally reduced growth potential a convergent strategy to survive drought and frost in plants?

BACKGROUND

Plants have adapted to survive seasonal life-threatening frost and drought. However, the timing and frequency of such events are impacted by climate change, jeopardizing plant survival. Understanding better the strategies of survival to dehydration stress is therefore timely and can be enhanced by the cross-fertilization of research between disciplines (ecology, physiology), models (woody, herbaceous species) and types of stress (drought, frost).

SCOPE

We build upon the 'growth-stress survival' trade-off, which underpins the identification of global plant strategies across environments along a 'fast-slow' economics spectrum. Although phenological adaptations such as dormancy are crucial to survive stress, plant global strategies along the fast-slow economic spectrum rarely integrate growth variations across seasons. We argue that the growth-stress survival trade-off can be a useful framework to identify convergent plant ecophysiological strategies to survive both frost and drought. We review evidence that reduced physiological activity, embolism resistance and dehydration tolerance of meristematic tissues are interdependent strategies that determine thresholds of mortality among plants under severe frost and drought. We show that complete dormancy, i.e. programmed growth cessation, before stress occurrence, minimizes water flows and maximizes dehydration tolerance during seasonal life-threatening stresses. We propose that incomplete dormancy, i.e. the programmed reduction of growth potential during the harshest seasons, could be an overlooked but major adaptation across plants. Quantifying stress survival in a range of non-dormant versus winter- or summer-dormant plants, should reveal to what extent incomplete to complete dormancy could represent a proxy for dehydration tolerance and stress survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review of the strategies involved in dehydration stress survival suggests that winter and summer dormancy are insufficiently acknowledged as plant ecological strategies. Incorporating a seasonal fast-slow economics spectrum into global plant strategies improves our understanding of plant resilience to seasonal stress and refines our prevision of plant adaptation to extreme climatic events.

Interspecific Drought Cuing in Plants

Plants readily communicate with their pollinators, herbivores, symbionts, and the predators and pathogens of their herbivores. We previously demonstrated that plants could exchange, relay, and adaptively utilize drought cues from their conspecific neighbors. Here, we studied the hypothesis that plants can exchange drought cues with their interspecific neighbors. Triplets of various combinations of split-root Stenotaphrum secundatum and Cynodon dactylon plants were planted in rows of four pots. One root of the first plant was subjected to drought while its other root shared its pot with one of the roots of an unstressed target neighbor, which, in turn, shared its other pot with an additional unstressed target neighbor. Drought cuing and relayed cuing were observed in all intra- and interspecific neighbor combinations, but its strength depended on plant identity and position. Although both species initiated similar stomatal closure in both immediate and relayed intraspecific neighbors, interspecific cuing between stressed plants and their immediate unstressed neighbors depended on neighbor identity. Combined with previous findings, the results suggest that stress cuing and relay cuing could affect the magnitude and fate of interspecific interactions, and the ability of whole communities to endure abiotic stresses. The findings call for further investigation into the mechanisms and ecological implications of interplant stress cuing at the population and community levels.

Increases in intraspecific body size variation are common among North American mammals and birds between 1880 and 2020

Many studies have documented the average body size of animals declining over time. Compared to mean body size, less is known about long-term changes in intraspecific trait variation (ITV), which is also important to understanding species' ability to cope with environmental challenges. On the basis of 393,499 specimen records from 380 species collected in North America between 1880 and 2020, we found that body size ITV increased by 9.59% for mammals (n = 302) and 30.67% for birds (n = 78); human-harvested species had higher probability of ITV increase. The observed increasing ITV in many species suggests possible niche expansion and potential buffering effects against downsizing but it risks increased maladaptation to rapidly changing environments. The results demonstrate that trait mean and variance do not necessarily respond in similar ways to anthropogenic pressures and both should be considered.

Looking to the past to understand the future: linking evolutionary modes of response with functional and life history traits in variable environments

In a variable world, plants must have strategies to deal with environmental conditions as they change. Understanding these strategies is critical since climate change not only affects mean conditions but also affects variability and predictability of those conditions. Doing so requires identifying how functional and life history traits interact throughout the life cycle to drive responses, as well as exploring how past variability will shape future responses. Here, I highlight relevant life history theory for predicting strategies in relation to the nature of environmental variability, relate theory to empirical studies integrating functional and life history traits to understand responses, and identify key areas for future research that will facilitate the application of this understanding toward predicting responses to climate change.

Climate change mitigation by coral reefs and seagrass beds at risk: How global change compromises coastal ecosystem services

Seagrass meadows provide valuable ecosystem services of coastal protection and chemical habitat formation that could help mitigate the impact of sea level rise and ocean acidification. However, the intensification of hydrodynamic forces caused by sea level rise, in addition to habitat degradation threaten the provision of these ecosystem services. With quantitative field measurements of the coastal protection and chemical habitat formation services of seagrass meadows, we statistically model the relationships between hydrodynamic forces, vegetation density and the provision of these ecosystem services. Utilising a high-resolution hydrodynamic model that simulates end of the century hydrodynamic conditions and three scenarios of coral reef degradation (i.e., keep up, remain or loss) we quantify how the environmental conditions within a tropical bay will change given changes to the provision of ecosystem services. Our study shows that increasing hydrodynamic forces lead to a seafloor made up of a larger grain size that is increasingly unstable and more vulnerable to erosion. The loss of a fringing reef leads to larger hydrodynamic forces entering the bay, however, the 0.87 m increase in depth due to sea-level rise reduces the bed shear stress in shallower areas, which limits the change in the ecosystem services provided by the current benthic seagrass meadow. Loss of seagrass constitutes the greatest change in a bay ecosystem, resulting in the sediment surface where seagrass existed becoming unstable and the median sediment grain size increasing by 5-7 %. The loss of seagrass also leads to the disappearance of the unique fluctuating chemical habitat, which leaves the surrounding community vulnerable to ocean acidification. A reduction or complete loss of these ecosystem services would impact the entire community assemblage while also leaving the surrounding coastline vulnerable to erosion, thus exacerbating negative effects brought about by climate change.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Population Genomic Time Series Data of a Natural Population Suggests Adaptive Tracking of Fluctuating Environmental Changes

Natural populations are constantly exposed to fluctuating environmental changes that negatively affect their fitness in unpredictable ways. While theoretical models show the possibility of counteracting these environmental changes through rapid evolutionary adaptations, there have been few empirical studies demonstrating such adaptive tracking in natural populations. Here, we analyzed environmental data, fitness-related phenotyping and genomic time-series data sampled over 3 years from a natural Chironomus riparius (Diptera, Insecta) population to address this question. We show that the population's environment varied significantly on the time scale of the sampling in many selectively relevant dimensions, independently of each other. Similarly, phenotypic fitness components evolved significantly on the same temporal scale (mean 0.32 Haldanes), likewise independent from each other. The allele frequencies of 367,446 SNPs across the genome showed evidence of positive selection. Using temporal correlation of spatially coherent allele frequency changes revealed 35,574 haplotypes with more than one selected SNP. The mean selection coefficient for these haplotypes was 0.30 (s.d. = 0.68). The frequency changes of these haplotypes clustered in 46 different temporal patterns, indicating concerted, independent evolution of many polygenic traits. Nine of these patterns were strongly correlated with measured environmental variables. Enrichment analysis of affected genes suggested the implication of a wide variety of biological processes. Thus, our results suggest overall that the natural population of C. riparius tracks environmental change through rapid polygenic adaptation in many independent dimensions. This is further evidence that natural selection is pervasive at the genomic level and that evolutionary and ecological time scales may not differ at all, at least in some organisms.

Rapid and transient evolution of local adaptation to seasonal host fruits in an invasive pest fly

Both local adaptation and adaptive phenotypic plasticity can influence the match between phenotypic traits and local environmental conditions. Theory predicts that environments stable for multiple generations promote local adaptation, whereas highly heterogeneous environments favor adaptive phenotypic plasticity. However, when environments have periods of stability mixed with heterogeneity, the relative importance of local adaptation and adaptive phenotypic plasticity is unclear. Here, we used Drosophila suzukii as a model system to evaluate the relative influence of genetic and plastic effects on the match of populations to environments with periods of stability from three to four generations. This invasive pest insect can develop within different fruits, and persists throughout the year in a given location on a succession of distinct host fruits, each one being available for only a few generations. Using reciprocal common environment experiments of natural D. suzukii populations collected from cherry, strawberry, and blackberry, we found that both oviposition preference and offspring performance were higher on medium made with the fruit from which the population originated than on media made with alternative fruits. This pattern, which remained after two generations in the laboratory, was analyzed using a statistical method we developed to quantify the contributions of local adaptation and adaptive plasticity in determining fitness. Altogether, we found that genetic effects (local adaptation) dominate over plastic effects (adaptive phenotypic plasticity). Our study demonstrates that spatially and temporally variable selection does not prevent the rapid evolution of local adaptation in natural populations. The speed and strength of adaptation may be facilitated by several mechanisms including a large effective population size and strong selective pressures imposed by host plants.

Precipitation predictability affects intra- and trans-generational plasticity and causes differential selection on root traits of Papaver rhoeas

Climate forecasts show that in many regions the temporal distribution of precipitation events will become less predictable. Root traits may play key roles in dealing with changes in precipitation predictability, but their functional plastic responses, including transgenerational processes, are scarcely known. We investigated root trait plasticity of Papaver rhoeas with respect to higher versus lower intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal precipitation predictability (i.e., the degree of temporal autocorrelation among precipitation events) during a four-year outdoor multi-generation experiment. We first tested how the simulated predictability regimes affected intra-generational plasticity of root traits and allocation strategies of the ancestors, and investigated the selective forces acting on them. Second, we exposed three descendant generations to the same predictability regime experienced by their mothers or to a different one. We then investigated whether high inter-generational predictability causes root trait differentiation, whether transgenerational root plasticity existed and whether it was affected by the different predictability treatments. We found that the number of secondary roots, root biomass and root allocation strategies of ancestors were affected by changes in precipitation predictability, in line with intra-generational plasticity. Lower predictability induced a root response, possibly reflecting a fast-acquisitive strategy that increases water absorbance from shallow soil layers. Ancestors' root traits were generally under selection, and the predictability treatments did neither affect the strength nor the direction of selection. Transgenerational effects were detected in root biomass and root weight ratio (RWR). In presence of lower predictability, descendants significantly reduced RWR compared to ancestors, leading to an increase in performance. This points to a change in root allocation in order to maintain or increase the descendants' fitness. Moreover, transgenerational plasticity existed in maximum rooting depth and root biomass, and the less predictable treatment promoted the lowest coefficient of variation among descendants' treatments in five out of six root traits. This shows that the level of maternal predictability determines the variation in the descendants' responses, and suggests that lower phenotypic plasticity evolves in less predictable environments. Overall, our findings show that roots are functional plastic traits that rapidly respond to differences in precipitation predictability, and that the plasticity and adaptation of root traits may crucially determine how climate change will affect plants.

Dispersal plasticity driven by variation in fitness across species and environmental gradients

Dispersal plasticity, when organisms adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their environment, can play a major role in ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but how it relates to fitness remains scarcely explored. Theory predicts that high dispersal plasticity should evolve when environmental gradients have a strong impact on fitness. Using microcosms, we tested in five species of the genus Tetrahymena whether dispersal plasticity relates to differences in fitness sensitivity along three environmental gradients. Dispersal plasticity was species- and environment-dependent. As expected, dispersal plasticity was generally related to fitness sensitivity, with higher dispersal plasticity when fitness is more affected by environmental gradients. Individuals often preferentially disperse out of low fitness environments, but leaving environments that should yield high fitness was also commonly observed. We provide empirical support for a fundamental, but largely untested, assumption in dispersal theory: the extent of dispersal plasticity correlates with fitness sensitivity to the environment.

Distinct signals of clinal and seasonal allele frequency change at eQTLs in Drosophila melanogaster

Populations of short-lived organisms can respond to spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity through local adaptation. Local adaptation can be reflected on both phenotypic and genetic levels, and it has been documented in many organisms. Although complex fitness-related phenotypes have been shown to vary across latitudinal clines and seasons in similar ways in Drosophila melanogaster populations, the comparative signals of local adaptation across space and time remain poorly understood. Here, we examined patterns of allele frequency change across a latitudinal cline and between seasons at previously reported expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). We divided eQTLs into groups by using differential expression profiles of fly populations collected across latitudinal clines or exposed to different environmental conditions. In general, we find that eQTLs are enriched for clinally varying polymorphisms, and that these eQTLs change in frequency in concordant ways across the cline and in response to starvation and chill-coma. The enrichment of eQTLs among seasonally varying polymorphisms is more subtle, and the direction of allele frequency change at eQTLs appears to be somewhat idiosyncratic. Taken together, we suggest that clinal adaptation at eQTLs is at least partially distinct from seasonal adaptation.

Do microbes have a memory? History-dependent behavior in the adaptation to variable environments

Microbes are constantly confronted with changes and challenges in their environment. A proper response to these environmental cues is needed for optimal cellular functioning and fitness. Interestingly, past exposure to environmental cues can accelerate or boost the response when this condition returns, even in daughter cells that have not directly encountered the initial cue. Moreover, this behavior is mostly epigenetic and often goes hand in hand with strong heterogeneity in the strength and speed of the response between isogenic cells of the same population, which might function as a bet-hedging strategy. In this review, we discuss examples of history-dependent behavior (HDB) or “memory,” with a specific focus on HDB in fluctuating environments. In most examples discussed, the lag time before the response to an environmental change is used as an experimentally measurable proxy for HDB. We highlight different mechanisms already implicated in HDB, and by using HDB in fluctuating carbon conditions as a case study, we showcase how the metabolic state of a cell can be a key determining factor for HDB. Finally, we consider possible evolutionary causes and consequences of such HDB.

Temperature variability interacts with mean temperature to influence the predictability of microbial phenotypes

Despite their relatively high thermal optima (Topt ), tropical taxa may be particularly vulnerable to a rising baseline and increased temperature variation because they live in relatively stable temperatures closer to their Topt . We examined how microbial eukaryotes with differing thermal histories responded to temperature fluctuations of different amplitudes (0 control, ±2, ±4°C) around mean temperatures below or above their Topt . Cosmopolitan dinoflagellates were selected based on their distinct thermal traits and included two species of the same genus (tropical and temperate Coolia spp.), and two strains of the same species maintained at different temperatures for >500 generations (tropical Amphidinium massartii control temperature and high temperature, CT and HT, respectively). There was a universal decline in population growth rate under temperature fluctuations, but strains with narrower thermal niche breadth (temperate Coolia and HT) showed ~10% greater reduction in growth. At suboptimal mean temperatures, cells in the cool phase of the fluctuation stopped dividing, fixed less carbon (C) and had enlarged cell volumes that scaled positively with elemental C, N, and P and C:Chlorophyll-a. However, at a supra-optimal mean temperature, fixed C was directed away from cell division and novel trait combinations developed, leading to greater phenotypic diversity. At the molecular level, heat-shock proteins, and chaperones, in addition to transcripts involving genome rearrangements, were upregulated in CT and HT during the warm phase of the supra-optimal fluctuation (30 ± 4°C), a stress response indicating protection. In contrast, the tropical Coolia species upregulated major energy pathways in the warm phase of its supra-optimal fluctuation (25 ± 4°C), indicating a broadscale shift in metabolism. Our results demonstrate divergent effects between taxa and that temporal variability in environmental conditions interacts with changes in the thermal mean to mediate microbial responses to global change, with implications for biogeochemical cycling.

Characterization, costs, cues and future perspectives of phenotypic plasticity

BACKGROUND

Plastic responses of plants to the environment are ubiquitous. Phenotypic plasticity occurs in many forms and at many biological scales, and its adaptive value depends on the specific environment and interactions with other plant traits and organisms. Even though plasticity is the norm rather than the exception, its complex nature has been a challenge in characterizing the expression of plasticity, its adaptive value for fitness and the environmental cues that regulate its expression.

SCOPE

This review discusses the characterization and costs of plasticity and approaches, considerations, and promising research directions in studying plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is genetically controlled and heritable; however, little is known about how organisms perceive, interpret and respond to environmental cues, and the genes and pathways associated with plasticity. Not every genotype is plastic for every trait, and plasticity is not infinite, suggesting trade-offs, costs and limits to expression of plasticity. The timing, specificity and duration of plasticity are critical to their adaptive value for plant fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

There are many research opportunities to advance our understanding of plant phenotypic plasticity. New methodology and technological breakthroughs enable the study of phenotypic responses across biological scales and in multiple environments. Understanding the mechanisms of plasticity and how the expression of specific phenotypes influences fitness in many environmental ranges would benefit many areas of plant science ranging from basic research to applied breeding for crop improvement.

Environmental change and the rate of phenotypic plasticity

With rapid and less predictable environmental change emerging as the 'new norm', understanding how individuals tolerate environmental stress via plastic, often reversible changes to the phenotype (i.e., reversible phenotypic plasticity, RPP), remains a key issue in ecology. Here, we examine the potential for better understanding how organisms overcome environmental challenges within their own lifetimes by scrutinizing a somewhat overlooked aspect of RPP, namely the rate at which it can occur. Although recent advances in the field provide indication of the aspects of environmental change where RPP rates may be of particular ecological relevance, we observe that current theoretical models do not consider the evolutionary potential of the rate of RPP. Whilst recent theory underscores the importance of environmental predictability in determining the slope of the evolved reaction norm for a given trait (i.e., how much plasticity can occur), a hitherto neglected possibility is that the rate of plasticity might be a more dynamic component of this relationship than previously assumed. If the rate of plasticity itself can evolve, as empirical evidence foreshadows, rates of plasticity may have the potential to alter the level predictability in the environment as perceived by the organism and thus influence the slope of the evolved reaction norm. However, optimality in the rate of phenotypic plasticity, its evolutionary dynamics in different environments and influence of constraints imposed by associated costs remain unexplored and may represent fruitful avenues of exploration in future theoretical and empirical treatments of the topic. We conclude by reviewing published studies of RPP rates, providing suggestions for improving the measurement of RPP rates, both in terms of experimental design and in the statistical quantification of this component of plasticity.

Does perception of female cues modulate male short-term fitness components in Drosophila melanogaster?

Phenotypic plasticity in reproductive behavior can be a strong driver of individual fitness. In species with high intra-sexual competition, changes in socio-sexual context can trigger quick adaptive plastic responses in males. In particular, a recent study in the vinegar fly (Drosophila melanogaster) shows that males derive net fitness benefits from being shortly exposed to female cues ahead of access to mating (termed sexual perception), but the underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon remain unknown. Here, we investigated the short-term effects of female perception on male pre- and post-copulatory components of reproductive performance: (a) mating success, (b) mating latency and duration, (c) sperm competitiveness, and (d) ejaculate effects on female receptivity and reproductive rate. We found that brief sexual perception increased mating duration, but had no effect on the other main pre- and post-copulatory fitness proxies recorded. This suggests that perception of female cues may not yield net fitness benefits for males in the short-term, but we discuss alternative explanations and future avenues of research.