Sample and population exponents of generalized Taylor's law

Temporal turnover in species' ranks can explain variation in Taylor's slope for ecological timeseries

The scaling exponent relating the mean and variance of the density of individual organisms in space (i.e., Taylor's slope: zspace) is well studied in ecology, but the analogous scaling exponent for temporal datasets (ztime) is underdeveloped. Previous theory suggests the narrow distribution of ztime (e.g., typically 1-2) could be due to interspecific competition. Here, using 1694 communities time series, we show that ztime can exceed 2, and reaffirm how this can affect our inference about the stabilizing effect of biodiversity. We also develop a new theory, based on temporal change in the ranks of species abundances, to help account for the observed ztime distribution. Specifically, we find that communities with minimal turnover in species' rank abundances are more likely to have higher ztime. Our analysis shows how species-level variability affects our inference about the stability of ecological communities.

Multiscaling behavior of braided channel networks: An alternative formulation of Taylor's law variate transformations

Braided channel networks exhibit a complex interplay between spatial and temporal dynamics. Their behavior is characterized by both simple and multiscaling patterns, and the mechanisms underlying the stochastic processes associated with this dynamics remain incompletely understood. Leveraging Taylor's pioneering work [Nature (London) 189, 732 (1961)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/189732a0], which unveiled scaling relations in a plethora of natural phenomena through what is now known as the Taylor power law (TPL), we propose a physical interpretation of braided channel systems. This interpretation utilizes a specific class of transformation functions applied to the mean of fluvial geomorphic variables measured along cross sections, namely, the number of wet channels, the average width of wet channels, and the entropic braiding index. By analyzing remotely sensed data of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River in Bangladesh we obtain valuable insight into the spatiotemporal scaling of these geomorphological variables and gather a deeper understanding of the complexity of braided channel systems. Finally, through a direct analysis employing the TPL in conjunction with a fixed-mass multifractal algorithm, we prove that braided channel networks exhibit a multiscaling behavior.

Universal abundance fluctuations across microbial communities, tropical forests, and urban populations

The growth of complex populations, such as microbial communities, forests, and cities, occurs over vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Although research in different fields has developed detailed, system-specific models to understand each individual system, a unified analysis of different complex populations is lacking; such an analysis could deepen our understanding of each system and facilitate cross-pollination of tools and insights across fields. Here, we use a shared framework to analyze time-series data of the human gut microbiome, tropical forest, and urban employment. We demonstrate that a single, three-parameter model of stochastic population dynamics can reproduce the empirical distributions of population abundances and fluctuations in all three datasets. The three parameters characterizing a species measure its mean abundance, deterministic stability, and stochasticity. Our analysis reveals that, despite the vast differences in scale, all three systems occupy a similar region of parameter space when time is measured in generations. In other words, although the fluctuations observed in these systems may appear different, this difference is primarily due to the different physical timescales associated with each system. Further, we show that the distribution of temporal abundance fluctuations is described by just two parameters and derive a two-parameter functional form for abundance fluctuations to improve risk estimation and forecasting.

A macroecological perspective on genetic diversity in the human gut microbiome

While the human gut microbiome has been intensely studied, we have yet to obtain a sufficient understanding of the genetic diversity that it harbors. Research efforts have demonstrated that a considerable fraction of within-host genetic variation in the human gut is driven by the ecological dynamics of co-occurring strains belonging to the same species, suggesting that an ecological lens may provide insight into empirical patterns of genetic diversity. Indeed, an ecological model of self-limiting growth and environmental noise known as the Stochastic Logistic Model (SLM) was recently shown to successfully predict the temporal dynamics of strains within a single human host. However, its ability to predict patterns of genetic diversity across human hosts has yet to be tested. In this manuscript I determine whether the predictions of the SLM explain patterns of genetic diversity across unrelated human hosts for 22 common microbial species. Specifically, the stationary distribution of the SLM explains the distribution of allele frequencies across hosts and predicts the fraction of hosts harboring a given allele (i.e., prevalence) for a considerable fraction of sites. The accuracy of the SLM was correlated with independent estimates of strain structure, suggesting that patterns of genetic diversity in the gut microbiome follow statistically similar forms across human hosts due to the existence of strain-level ecology.

Scaling relationships of leaf vein and areole traits versus leaf size for nine Magnoliaceae species differing in venation density

PREMISE

Across species, main leaf vein density scales inversely with leaf area (A). Yet, minor vein density manifests no clear relationship with respect to A, despite having the potential to provide important insights into the trade-off among the investments in leaf mechanical support, hydraulics, and light interception.

METHODS

To examine this phenomenon, the leaves of nine Magnoliaceae leaves were sampled, and the scaling relationships among A and midrib length (ML), total vein length (TVL), total vein area (TVA), total areole area (TAA), and mean areole area (MAA) were determined. The scaling relationships between MAA and areole density (the number of areoles per unit leaf area) and between MAA and A were also analyzed.

RESULTS

For five of the nine species, A was proportional to ML² . For eight of the nine species, TVL and TVA were both proportional to A. The numerical values of the scaling exponents for TAA vs. A were between 1.0 and 1.07 for eight species; i.e., as expected, TAA was isometrically proportional to A. There was no correlation between MAA and A, but MAA scaled inversely with respect to areole density for each species.

CONCLUSIONS

The correlation between midrib "density" (i.e., ML/A) and A, and the lack of correlation between total leaf vein density and A result from the A ∝$\propto $ ML² scaling relationship and the proportional relationship between TVL and A, respectively. Leaves with the same size can have widely varying MAA. Thus, leaf size itself does not directly constrain leaf hydraulic efficiency and redundancy.

Scaling relationships of leaf vein and areole traits versus leaf size for nine Magnoliaceae species differing in venation density

PREMISE

Across species, main leaf vein density scales inversely with leaf area (A). Yet, minor vein density manifests no clear relationship with respect to A, despite having the potential to provide important insights into the trade-off among the investments in leaf mechanical support, hydraulics, and light interception.

METHODS

To examine this phenomenon, the leaves of nine Magnoliaceae leaves were sampled, and the scaling relationships among A and midrib length (ML), total vein length (TVL), total vein area (TVA), total areole area (TAA), and mean areole area (MAA) were determined. The scaling relationships between MAA and areole density (the number of areoles per unit leaf area) and between MAA and A were also analyzed.

RESULTS

For five of the nine species, A was proportional to ML² . For eight of the nine species, TVL and TVA were both proportional to A. The numerical values of the scaling exponents for TAA vs. A were between 1.0 and 1.07 for eight species; i.e., as expected, TAA was isometrically proportional to A. There was no correlation between MAA and A, but MAA scaled inversely with respect to areole density for each species.

CONCLUSIONS

The correlation between midrib "density" (i.e., ML/A) and A, and the lack of correlation between total leaf vein density and A result from the A ∝$\propto $ ML² scaling relationship and the proportional relationship between TVL and A, respectively. Leaves with the same size can have widely varying MAA. Thus, leaf size itself does not directly constrain leaf hydraulic efficiency and redundancy.

Fine scale prediction of ecological community composition using a two-step sequential Machine Learning ensemble

Prediction is one of the last frontiers in ecology. Indeed, predicting fine-scale species composition in natural systems is a complex challenge as multiple abiotic and biotic processes operate simultaneously to determine local species abundances. On the one hand, species intrinsic performance and their tolerance limits to different abiotic pressures modulate species abundances. On the other hand, there is growing recognition that species interactions play an equally important role in limiting or promoting such abundances within ecological communities. Here, we present a joint effort between ecologists and data scientists to use data-driven models to predict species abundances using reasonably easy to obtain data. We propose a sequential data-driven modeling approach that in a first step predicts the potential species abundances based on abiotic variables, and in a second step uses these predictions to model the realized abundances once accounting for species competition. Using a curated data set over five years we predict fine-scale species abundances in a highly diverse annual plant community. Our models show a remarkable spatial predictive accuracy using only easy-to-measure variables in the field, yet such predictive power is lost when temporal dynamics are taken into account. This result suggests that predicting future abundances requires longer time series analysis to capture enough variability. In addition, we show that these data-driven models can also suggest how to improve mechanistic models by adding missing variables that affect species performance such as particular soil conditions (e.g. carbonate availability in our case). Robust models for predicting fine-scale species composition informed by the mechanistic understanding of the underlying abiotic and biotic processes can be a pivotal tool for conservation, especially given the human-induced rapid environmental changes we are experiencing. This objective can be achieved by promoting the knowledge gained with classic modelling approaches in ecology and recently developed data-driven models.

Taylor's law of fluctuation scaling for semivariances and higher moments of heavy-tailed data

We generalize Taylor's law for the variance of light-tailed distributions to many sample statistics of heavy-tailed distributions with tail index α in (0, 1), which have infinite mean. We show that, as the sample size increases, the sample upper and lower semivariances, the sample higher moments, the skewness, and the kurtosis of a random sample from such a law increase asymptotically in direct proportion to a power of the sample mean. Specifically, the lower sample semivariance asymptotically scales in proportion to the sample mean raised to the power 2, while the upper sample semivariance asymptotically scales in proportion to the sample mean raised to the power [Formula: see text] The local upper sample semivariance (counting only observations that exceed the sample mean) asymptotically scales in proportion to the sample mean raised to the power [Formula: see text] These and additional scaling laws characterize the asymptotic behavior of commonly used measures of the risk-adjusted performance of investments, such as the Sortino ratio, the Sharpe ratio, the Omega index, the upside potential ratio, and the Farinelli-Tibiletti ratio, when returns follow a heavy-tailed nonnegative distribution. Such power-law scaling relationships are known in ecology as Taylor's law and in physics as fluctuation scaling. We find the asymptotic distribution and moments of the number of observations exceeding the sample mean. We propose estimators of α based on these scaling laws and the number of observations exceeding the sample mean and compare these estimators with some prior estimators of α.

Direct Scaling of Measure on Vortex Shedding through a Flapping Flag Device in the Open Channel around a Cylinder at Re∼103: Taylor's Law Approach

The problem of vortex shedding, which occurs when an obstacle is placed in a regular flow, is governed by Reynolds and Strouhal numbers, known by dimensional analysis. The present work aims to propose a thin films-based device, consisting of an elastic piezoelectric flapping flag clamped at one end, in order to determine the frequency of vortex shedding downstream an obstacle for a flow field at Reynolds number Re∼103 in the open channel. For these values, Strouhal number obtained in such way is in accordance with the results known in literature. Moreover, the development of the voltage over time, generated by the flapping flag under the load due to flow field, shows a highly fluctuating behavior and satisfies Taylor’s law, observed in several complex systems. This provided useful information about the flow field through the constitutive law of the device.

Joint assessment of density correlations and fluctuations for analysing spatial tree patterns

Inferring the processes underlying the emergence of observed patterns is a key challenge in theoretical ecology. Much effort has been made in the past decades to collect extensive and detailed information about the spatial distribution of tropical rainforests, as demonstrated, e.g. in the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. These kinds of plots have been crucial to shed light on diverse qualitative features, emerging both at the single-species or the community level, like the spatial aggregation or clustering at short scales. Here, we build on the progress made in the study of the density correlation functions applied to biological systems, focusing on the importance of accurately defining the borders of the set of trees, and removing the induced biases. We also pinpoint the importance of combining the study of correlations with the scale dependence of fluctuations in density, which are linked to the well-known empirical Taylor's power law. Density correlations and fluctuations, in conjunction, provide a unique opportunity to interpret the behaviours and, possibly, to allow comparisons between data and models. We also study such quantities in models of spatial patterns and, in particular, we find that a spatially explicit neutral model generates patterns with many qualitative features in common with the empirical ones.

Yeast facilitates the multiplication of Drosophila bacterial symbionts but has no effect on the form or parameters of Taylor's law

Interactions between microbial symbionts influence their demography and that of their hosts. Taylor’s power law (TL)–a well-established relationship between population size mean and variance across space and time–may help to unveil the factors and processes that determine symbiont multiplications. Recent studies suggest pervasive interactions between symbionts in Drosophila melanogaster. We used this system to investigate theoretical predictions regarding the effects of interspecific interactions on TL parameters. We assayed twenty natural strains of bacteria in the presence and absence of a strain of yeast using an ecologically realistic set-up with D. melanogaster larvae reared in natural fruit. Yeast presence led to a small increase in bacterial cell numbers; bacterial strain identity largely affected yeast multiplication. The spatial version of TL held among bacterial and yeast populations with slopes of 2. However, contrary to theoretical prediction, the facilitation of bacterial symbionts by yeast had no detectable effect on TL’s parameters. These results shed new light on the nature of D. melanogaster’s symbiosis with yeast and bacteria. They further reveal the complexity of investigating TL with microorganisms.

Macroecological laws describe variation and diversity in microbial communities

How the coexistence of many species is maintained is a fundamental and unresolved question in ecology. Coexistence is a puzzle because we lack a mechanistic understanding of the variation in species presence and abundance. Whether variation in ecological communities is driven by deterministic or random processes is one of the most controversial issues in ecology. Here, I study the variation of species presence and abundance in microbial communities from a macroecological standpoint. I identify three macroecological laws that quantitatively characterize the fluctuation of species abundance across communities and over time. Using these three laws, one can predict species' presence and absence, diversity, and commonly studied macroecological patterns. I show that a mathematical model based on environmental stochasticity, the stochastic logistic model, quantitatively predicts the three macroecological laws, as well as non-stationary properties of community dynamics.

Taylor's Law in Innovation Processes

Taylor's law quantifies the scaling properties of the fluctuations of the number of innovations occurring in open systems. Urn-based modeling schemes have already proven to be effective in modeling this complex behaviour. Here, we present analytical estimations of Taylor's law exponents in such models, by leveraging on their representation in terms of triangular urn models. We also highlight the correspondence of these models with Poisson-Dirichlet processes and demonstrate how a non-trivial Taylor's law exponent is a kind of universal feature in systems related to human activities. We base this result on the analysis of four collections of data generated by human activity: (i) written language (from a Gutenberg corpus); (ii) an online music website (Last.fm); (iii) Twitter hashtags; (iv) an online collaborative tagging system (Del.icio.us). While Taylor's law observed in the last two datasets agrees with the plain model predictions, we need to introduce a generalization to fully characterize the behaviour of the first two datasets, where temporal correlations are possibly more relevant. We suggest that Taylor's law is a fundamental complement to Zipf's and Heaps' laws in unveiling the complex dynamical processes underlying the evolution of systems featuring innovation.

Estimating the Optimum Coverage and Quality of Amplicon Sequencing With Taylor's Power Law Extensions

Theoretical analysis of DNA sequencing coverage problem has been investigated with complex mathematical models such as Lander-Waterman expectation theory and Stevens' theorem for randomly covering a domain. In the field of metagenomics sequencing, several approaches have been developed to estimate the coverage of whole-genome shotgun sequencing, but surprisingly few studies addressed the coverage problem for marker-gene amplicon sequencing, for which arguably the biggest challenge is the complexity or heterogeneity of microbial communities. Overall, much of the practice still relies variously on speculation, semi-empirical and ad hoc heuristic models. Conservatively raising coverage may ensure the success of sequencing project, but often with unduly cost. In this study, we borrow the principles and approaches of optimum sampling methodology originated in applied entomology, achieved equal success in plant pathology and parasitology, and plays a critical role in the decision-making for global crop and forest protection against economic pests since 1970s when the pesticide crisis and food safety concerns forced the reduction of pesticide usages, which in turn requires reliable sampling techniques for monitoring pest populations. We realized that sequencing coverage is essentially an optimum sampling problem. Perhaps the only essential difference between sampling insects and sampling microbiome is the "instrument" used. In traditional entomology, it is usually humans that visually count the numbers of insects, occasionally aided by binocular microscope. In the metagenomics research, it is the DNA sequencers that count the number of DNA reads. Furthermore, a key theoretical foundation for sampling insect pest populations, i.e., Taylor's power law, which achieved rare status of ecological law and captures the population aggregation, has been recently extended to the community level for describing community heterogeneity and stability, namely, Taylor's power law extensions (TPLEs). This theoretical advance enabled us to develop a novel approach to assessing the quality and determining optimum reads (coverage) of amplicon sequencing operations. Specifically, two applications were developed: one is, in hindsight, to assess the quality of amplicon sequencing operation in terms of the precision and confidence levels. Another is, prior to sequencing operation, to determine the minimum sequencing efforts for a sequencing project to achieve preset precision and confidence levels.

The Generalized Gielis Geometric Equation and Its Application

Many natural shapes exhibit surprising symmetry and can be described by the Gielis equation, which has several classical geometric equations (for example, the circle, ellipse and superellipse) as special cases. However, the original Gielis equation cannot reflect some diverse shapes due to limitations of its power-law hypothesis. In the present study, we propose a generalized version by introducing a link function. Thus, the original Gielis equation can be deemed to be a special case of the generalized Gielis equation (GGE) with a power-law link function. The link function can be based on the morphological features of different objects so that the GGE is more flexible in fitting the data of the shape than its original version. The GGE is shown to be valid in depicting the shapes of some starfish and plant leaves.

Macroecological dynamics of gut microbiota

The gut microbiota is now widely recognized as a dynamic ecosystem that plays an important role in health and disease. Although current sequencing technologies make it possible to explore how relative abundances of host-associated bacteria change over time, the biological processes governing microbial dynamics remain poorly understood. Therefore, as in other ecological systems, it is important to identify quantitative relationships describing various aspects of gut microbiota dynamics. In the present study, we use multiple high-resolution time series data obtained from humans and mice to demonstrate that, despite their inherent complexity, gut microbiota dynamics can be characterized by several robust scaling relationships. Interestingly, the observed patterns are highly similar to those previously identified across diverse ecological communities and economic systems, including the temporal fluctuations of animal and plant populations and the performance of publicly traded companies. Specifically, we find power-law relationships describing short- and long-term changes in gut microbiota abundances, species residence and return times, and the correlation between the mean and the temporal variance of species abundances. The observed scaling laws are altered in mice receiving different diets and are affected by context-specific perturbations in humans. We use the macroecological relationships to reveal specific bacterial taxa, the dynamics of which are substantially perturbed by dietary and environmental changes. Overall, our results suggest that a quantitative macroecological framework will be important for characterizing and understanding the complex dynamics of diverse microbial communities.

Leaf Bilateral Symmetry and the Scaling of the Perimeter vs. the Surface Area in 15 Vine Species

The leaves of vines exhibit a high degree of variability in shape, from simple oval to highly dissected palmatifid leaves. However, little is known about the extent of leaf bilateral symmetry in vines, how leaf perimeter scales with leaf surface area, and how this relationship depends on leaf shape. We studied 15 species of vines and calculated (i) the areal ratio (AR) of both sides of the lamina per leaf, (ii) the standardized symmetry index (SI) to estimate the deviation from leaf bilateral symmetry, and (iii) the dissection index (DI) to measure leaf-shape complexity. In addition, we examined whether there is a scaling relationship between leaf perimeter and area for each species. A total of 14 out of 15 species had no significant differences in average ln(AR), and mean ln(AR) approximated zero, indicating that the areas of the two lamina sides tended to be equal. Nevertheless, SI values among the 15 species had significant differences. A statistically strong scaling relationship between leaf perimeter and area was observed for each species, and the scaling exponents of 12 out of 15 species fell in the range of 0.49−0.55. These data show that vines tend to generate a similar number of left- and right-skewed leaves, which might contribute to optimizing light interception. Weaker scaling relationships between leaf perimeter and area were associated with a greater DI and a greater variation in DI. Thus, DI provides a useful measure of the degree of the complexity of leaf outline.

Isometric scaling of faunal patchiness: Seagrass macrobenthic abundance across small spatial scales

Following earlier studies across 2115 → 33 m² scales (Barnes and Laurie, 2018), patchiness of macrobenthic abundance in intertidal Queensland seagrass was assessed by dispersion indices, spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis across a hierarchically-nested series of smaller scales (5.75 → 0.09 m²). Overall patterns of distribution and abundance over larger extents and with greater lag were mirrored across these smaller ones. Assemblage abundance per station varied by a factor of >10, but all three approaches showed effective constancy of total assemblage patchiness across all sub-2115 m² scales (across-scales-mean Lloyd's I_P of 1.06 and global Moran's I of 0.13). Equivalent constancy was also shown by most numerically-dominant species (scaling exponent β = 0.93-1.15). Decreasing patchiness of some species with decreasing scale, however, resulted in two no longer being patchily dispersed across small scales. Significant hotspots of abundance occurred at a constant proportion of stations across scales, against a background of randomly scattered peak-abundance points.

Ecological drift and competitive interactions predict unique patterns in temporal fluctuations of population size

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of higher-order competitive interactions in stabilizing population dynamics in multi-species communities. But how does the structure of competitive hierarchies affect population dynamics and extinction processes? We tackled this important question by using spatially explicit simulations of ecological drift (10 species in a homogeneous landscape of 64 patches) in which birth rates were influenced by interspecific competition. Specifically, we examined how transitive (linear pecking orders) and intransitive (pecking orders with loops) competitive hierarchies affected extinction rates and population dynamics in simulated communities through time. In comparison to a pure neutral model, an ecological drift model including transitive competition increased extinction rates, caused synchronous density-dependent population fluctuations, and generated a white-noise distribution of population sizes. In contrast, the drift model with intransitive competitive interactions decreased extinctions rates, caused asynchronous (compensatory) density-dependent population fluctuations, and generated a brown noise distribution of population sizes. We also explored the effect on community stability of more complex patterns of competitive interactions in which pairwise competitive relationships were assigned probabilistically. These probabilistic competition models also generated density-dependent trajectories and a brown noise distribution of population sizes. However, extinction rates and the degree of population synchrony were comparable to those observed in purely neutral communities. Collectively, our results confirm that intransitive competition has a strong and stabilizing effect on local populations in species-poor communities. This effect wanes with increasing species richness. Empirical assemblages characterized by brown spectral noise, density-dependent regulation, and asynchronous (compensatory) population fluctuations may indicate a signature of intransitive competitive interactions.

On the probabilistic nature of the species-area relation

The Species-Area Relation (SAR), which describes the increase in the number of species S with increasing area A, is under intense scrutiny in contemporary ecology, in particular to probe its reliability in predicting the number of species going extinct as a direct result of habitat loss. Here, we focus on the island SAR, which is measured across a set of disjoint habitat patches, and we argue that the SAR portrays an average trend around which fluctuations are to be expected due to the stochasticity of community dynamics within the patches, external perturbations, and habitat heterogeneity across different patches. This probabilistic interpretation of the SAR, though already implicit in the theory of island biogeography and manifest in the scatter of data points in plots of empirical SAR curves, has not been investigated systematically from the theoretical point of view. Here, we show that the two main contributions to SAR fluctuations, which are due to community dynamics within the patches and to habitat heterogeneity between different patches, can be decoupled and analyzed independently. To investigate the community dynamics contribution to SAR fluctuations, we explore a suite of theoretical models of community dynamics where the number of species S inhabiting a patch emerges from diverse ecological and evolutionary processes, and we compare stationary predictions for the coefficient of variation of S, i.e. the fluctuations of S with respect to the mean. We find that different community dynamics models diverge radically in their predictions. In island biogeography and in neutral frameworks, where fluctuations are only driven by the stochasticity of diversification and extinction events, relative fluctuations decay when the mean increases. Computational evidence suggests that this result is robust in the presence of competition for space or resources. When species compete for finite resources, and mass is introduced as a trait determining species' birth, death and resource consumption rates based on empirical allometric scalings, relative fluctuations do not decay with increasing mean S due to the occasional introduction of new species with large resource demands causing mass extinctions in the community. Given this observation, we also investigate the contribution of external disturbance events to fluctuations of S in neutral community dynamics models and compare this scenario with the community dynamics in undisturbed non-neutral models. Habitat heterogeneity within a single patch, in the context of metapopulation models, causes variability in the number of coexisting species which proves negligible with respect to that caused by the stochasticity of the community dynamics. The second contribution to SAR fluctuations, which is due to habitat heterogeneity among different patches, introduces corrections to the coefficient of variation of S. Most importantly, inter-patches heterogeneity introduces a constant, lower bound on the relative fluctuations of S equal to the coefficient of variation of a habitat variable describing the heterogeneity among patches. Because heterogeneity across patches is inevitably present in natural ecosystems, we expect that the relative fluctuations of S always tend to a constant in the limit of large mean S or large patch area A, with contributions from community dynamics, inter-patches heterogeneity or both. We provide a theoretical framework for modelling these two contributions and we show that both can affect significantly the fluctuations of the SAR.

Twenty-Five Years of the Binary Power Law for Characterizing Heterogeneity of Disease Incidence

Spatial pattern, an important epidemiological property of plant diseases, can be quantified at different scales using a range of methods. The spatial heterogeneity (or overdispersion) of disease incidence among sampling units is an especially important measure of small-scale pattern. As an alternative to Taylor's power law for the heterogeneity of counts with no upper bound, the binary power law (BPL) was proposed in 1992 as a model to represent the heterogeneity of disease incidence (number of plant units diseased out of n observed in each sampling unit, or the proportion diseased in each sampling unit). With the BPL, the log of the observed variance is a linear function of the log of the variance for a binomial (i.e., random) distribution. Over the last quarter century, the BPL has contributed to both theory and multiple applications in the study of heterogeneity of disease incidence. In this article, we discuss properties of the BPL and use it to develop a general conceptualization of the dynamics of spatial heterogeneity in epidemics; review the use of the BPL in empirical and theoretical studies; present a synthesis of parameter estimates from over 200 published BPL analyses from a wide range of diseases and crops; discuss model fitting methods, and applications in sampling, data analysis, and prediction; and make recommendations on reporting results to improve interpretation. In a review of the literature, the BPL provided a very good fit to heterogeneity data in most publications. Eighty percent of estimated slope (b) values from field studies were between 1.06 and 1.51, with b positively correlated with the BPL intercept parameter. Stochastic simulations show that the BPL is generally consistent with spatiotemporal epidemiological processes and holds whenever there is a positive correlation of disease status of individuals composing sampling units.

Biological and statistical processes jointly drive population aggregation: using host-parasite interactions to understand Taylor's power law

The macroecological pattern known as Taylor's power law (TPL) represents the pervasive tendency of the variance in population density to increase as a power function of the mean. Despite empirical illustrations in systems ranging from viruses to vertebrates, the biological significance of this relationship continues to be debated. Here we combined collection of a unique dataset involving 11 987 amphibian hosts and 332 684 trematode parasites with experimental measurements of core epidemiological outcomes to explicitly test the contributions of hypothesized biological processes in driving aggregation. After using feasible set theory to account for mechanisms acting indirectly on aggregation and statistical constraints inherent to the data, we detected strongly consistent influences of host and parasite species identity over 7 years of sampling. Incorporation of field-based measurements of host body size, its variance and spatial heterogeneity in host density accounted for host identity effects, while experimental quantification of infection competence (and especially virulence from the 20 most common host-parasite combinations) revealed the role of species-by-environment interactions. By uniting constraint-based theory, controlled experiments and community-based field surveys, we illustrate the joint influences of biological and statistical processes on parasite aggregation and emphasize their importance for understanding population regulation and ecological stability across a range of systems, both infectious and free-living.

Internode morphometrics and allometry of Tonkin Cane Pseudosasa amabilis

Pseudosasa amabilis (McClure) (Poales: Gramineae) is a typical bamboo species naturally distributed in large area of south China and famous for its culm strength. Although bamboos were found to share the same development rule, the detailed internode morphology of bamboo culm was actually not fully expressed. We explored internode morphology of P. amabilis using 11 different physical parameters in different dimensions (1–4). As Taylor's power law (TPL) is generally applicable to describe relationship between mean and variance of population density, here we used TPL to evaluate the differences between internodes, and further, the relationship between dimension and TPL. Results showed that length (L), hollow radius (HR), hollow area (HA), hollow cylinder volume (HCV), total cylinder volume (TCV), density (De), and weight (W) all presented positive skewed distribution in varying degrees. For the basic one‐dimensional parameters, the 9th internode was the longest, the 7th the heaviest, while thickness (T) decreased with internodes. Diameter (D) decreased in general but with an inconspicuous local mode at the 5–6th internodes, potentially due to the rapid height growth. The longest (9th) internode was the “turning point” for T‐D and HR‐D relationships. Scatter plot changing trends of W to the one‐dimensional parameters after the heaviest (7th) internode were reversed, indicating a deceleration of growth speed. TPL was not holding well in one‐dimensional parameters (R²: 0.5413–0.8125), but keep increasing as the parameter's dimension increasing (R² > 0.92 for two‐dimensional, R² > 0.97 for three‐dimensional, and R² > 0.99 for four‐dimensional parameters.), suggesting an emergence mechanism of TPL related to both the physical dimensions of morphological measures and the allometric growth of bamboo. From the physical fundamental level, all existences are the expression of energy distribution in different dimensions, implying a more general rule that energy distribution holds better TPL in higher dimension level.

Covariations in ecological scaling laws fostered by community dynamics

Scaling laws in ecology, intended both as functional relationships among ecologically relevant quantities and the probability distributions that characterize their occurrence, have long attracted the interest of empiricists and theoreticians. Empirical evidence exists of power laws associated with the number of species inhabiting an ecosystem, their abundances, and traits. Although their functional form appears to be ubiquitous, empirical scaling exponents vary with ecosystem type and resource supply rate. The idea that ecological scaling laws are linked has been entertained before, but the full extent of macroecological pattern covariations, the role of the constraints imposed by finite resource supply, and a comprehensive empirical verification are still unexplored. Here, we propose a theoretical scaling framework that predicts the linkages of several macroecological patterns related to species' abundances and body sizes. We show that such a framework is consistent with the stationary-state statistics of a broad class of resource-limited community dynamics models, regardless of parameterization and model assumptions. We verify predicted theoretical covariations by contrasting empirical data and provide testable hypotheses for yet unexplored patterns. We thus place the observed variability of ecological scaling exponents into a coherent statistical framework where patterns in ecology embed constrained fluctuations.

Synchrony affects Taylor's law in theory and data

Taylor's law (TL) is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates the variances to the means of groups of nonnegative measurements via an approximate power law: variance _g ≈ a [Formula: see text] mean _g^b , where g indexes the group of measurements. When each group of measurements is distributed in space, the exponent b of this power law is conjectured to reflect aggregation in the spatial distribution. TL has had practical application in many areas since its initial demonstrations for the population density of spatially distributed species in population ecology. Another widely observed aspect of populations is spatial synchrony, which is the tendency for time series of population densities measured in different locations to be correlated through time. Recent studies showed that patterns of population synchrony are changing, possibly as a consequence of climate change. We use mathematical, numerical, and empirical approaches to show that synchrony affects the validity and parameters of TL. Greater synchrony typically decreases the exponent b of TL. Synchrony influenced TL in essentially all of our analytic, numerical, randomization-based, and empirical examples. Given the near ubiquity of synchrony in nature, it seems likely that synchrony influences the exponent of TL widely in ecologically and economically important systems.

Statistical properties of fluctuations of time series representing appearances of words in nationwide blog data and their applications: An example of modeling fluctuation scalings of nonstationary time series

To elucidate the nontrivial empirical statistical properties of fluctuations of a typical nonsteady time series representing the appearance of words in blogs, we investigated approximately 3×10^{9} Japanese blog articles over a period of six years and analyze some corresponding mathematical models. First, we introduce a solvable nonsteady extension of the random diffusion model, which can be deduced by modeling the behavior of heterogeneous random bloggers. Next, we deduce theoretical expressions for both the temporal and ensemble fluctuation scalings of this model, and demonstrate that these expressions can reproduce all empirical scalings over eight orders of magnitude. Furthermore, we show that the model can reproduce other statistical properties of time series representing the appearance of words in blogs, such as functional forms of the probability density and correlations in the total number of blogs. As an application, we quantify the abnormality of special nationwide events by measuring the fluctuation scalings of 1771 basic adjectives.

Heterogeneous 'proportionality constants' - A challenge to Taylor's Power Law for temporal fluctuations in abundance

Taylor's Power Law for the temporal fluctuation in population size (TL) posits that the variance in abundance scales according to aM(b); where M is the mean abundance and a and b are the 'proportionality' and 'scaling' coefficients. As one of the few empirical rules in population ecology, TL has attracted substantial theoretical and empirical attention. Much of this attention focused on the scaling coefficient; particularly its ubiquitous deviation from the null value of 2. Here we present a line of reasoning that challenges the power-law interpretation of the empirical log-linear relationship between the mean and variance of population size. At the core of our reasoning is the proposition that populations vary not only with respect to M but also with respect to a; which leaves the log-linear relationship intact but forfeits its power-law interpretation. Using the stochastic logistic-growth model as an example, we show that ignoring among-population variation in a is akin to ignoring the variation in the intrinsic rate of growth (r). Accordingly, we show that the slope of the log-linear relationship (b) is a function of the among-population (co)variation in r and the carrying-capacity. We further demonstrate that local environmental stochasticity is sufficient to generate the full range of observed values of b, and that b can in fact be insensitive to substantial differences in the balance between variance-generating and stabilizing processes.

Fluctuation scaling in the visual cortex at threshold

Fluctuation scaling relates trial-to-trial variability to the average response by a power function in many physical processes. Here we address whether fluctuation scaling holds in sensory psychophysics and its functional role in visual processing. We report experimental evidence of fluctuation scaling in human color vision and form perception at threshold. Subjects detected thresholds in a psychophysical masking experiment that is considered a standard reference for studying suppression between neurons in the visual cortex. For all subjects, the analysis of threshold variability that results from the masking task indicates that fluctuation scaling is a global property that modulates detection thresholds with a scaling exponent that departs from 2, β=2.48±0.07. We also examine a generalized version of fluctuation scaling between the sample kurtosis K and the sample skewness S of threshold distributions. We find that K and S are related and follow a unique quadratic form K=(1.19±0.04)S^{2}+(2.68±0.06) that departs from the expected 4/3 power function regime. A random multiplicative process with weak additive noise is proposed based on a Langevin-type equation. The multiplicative process provides a unifying description of fluctuation scaling and the quadratic S-K relation and is related to on-off intermittency in sensory perception. Our findings provide an insight into how the human visual system interacts with the external environment. The theoretical methods open perspectives for investigating fluctuation scaling and intermittency effects in a wide variety of natural, economic, and cognitive phenomena.