Contrasting responses of functional diversity to major losses in taxonomic diversity

Biogeographic response of marine plankton to Cenozoic environmental changes

In palaeontological studies, groups with consistent ecological and morphological traits across a clade's history (functional groups)1 afford different perspectives on biodiversity dynamics than do species and genera2,3, which are evolutionarily ephemeral. Here we analyse Triton, a global dataset of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminiferal occurrences4, to contextualize changes in latitudinal equitability gradients1, functional diversity, palaeolatitudinal specialization and community equitability. We identify: global morphological communities becoming less specialized preceding the richness increase after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene extinction; ecological specialization during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum, suggesting inhibitive equatorial temperatures during the peak of the Cenozoic hothouse; increased specialization due to circulation changes across the Eocene-Oligocene transition, preceding the loss of morphological diversity; changes in morphological specialization and richness about 19 million years ago, coeval with pelagic shark extinctions5; delayed onset of changing functional group richness and specialization between hemispheres during the mid-Miocene plankton diversification. The detailed nature of the Triton dataset permits a unique spatiotemporal view of Cenozoic pelagic macroevolution, in which global biogeographic responses of functional communities and richness are decoupled during Cenozoic climate events. The global response of functional groups to similar abiotic selection pressures may depend on the background climatic state (greenhouse or icehouse) to which a group is adapted.

Ecological structure of diversity-dependent diversification in Phanerozoic marine bivalves

Rigorous analysis of diversity-dependence-the hypothesis that the rate of proliferation of new species is inversely related to standing diversity-requires consideration of the ecology of the organisms in question. Differences between infaunal marine bivalves (living entirely within the sediment) and epifaunal forms (living partially or completely above the sediment-water interface) predict that these major ecological groups should have different diversity dynamics: epifaunal species may compete more intensely for space and be more susceptible to predation and physical disturbance. By comparing detrended standing diversity with rates of diversification, origination, and extinction in this exceptional fossil record, we find that epifaunal bivalves experienced significant, negative diversity-dependence in origination and net diversification, whereas infaunal forms show little appreciable relationship between diversity and evolutionary rates. This macroevolutionary contrast is robust to the time span over which dynamics are analysed, whether mass-extinction rebounds are included in the analysis, the treatment of stratigraphic ranges that are not maximally resolved, and the details of detrending. We also find that diversity-dependence persists over hundreds of millions of years, even though diversity itself rises nearly exponentially, belying the notion that diversity-dependence must imply equilibrial diversity dynamics.

Shrub and precipitation interactions shape functional diversity of nematode communities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Land use and climate change alter biodiversity patterns and ecosystem functioning worldwide. Land abandonment with consequent shrub encroachment and changes in precipitation gradients are known factors in global change. Yet, the consequences of interactions between these factors on the functional diversity of belowground communities remain insufficiently explored. Here, we investigated the dominant shrub effects on the functional diversity of soil nematode communities along a precipitation gradient on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. We collected three functional traits (life-history C-P value, body mass, and diet) and calculated the functional alpha and beta diversity of nematode communities using kernel density n-dimensional hypervolumes. We found that shrubs did not significantly alter the functional richness and dispersion, but significantly decreased the functional beta diversity of nematode communities in a pattern of functional homogenization. Shrubs benefited nematodes with longer life-history, larger body mass, and higher trophic levels. Moreover, the shrub effects on the functional diversity of nematodes depended strongly on precipitation. Increasing precipitation reversed the effects shrubs have on the functional richness and dispersion from negative to positive but amplified the negative effects shrubs have on functional beta diversity of nematodes. Benefactor shrubs had stronger effects on the functional alpha and beta diversity of nematodes than allelopathic shrubs along a precipitation gradient. A piecewise structural equation model showed that shrubs and its interactions with precipitation indirectly increased the functional richness and dispersion through plant biomass and soil total nitrogen, whereas it directly decreased the functional beta diversity. Our study reveals the expected changes in soil nematode functional diversity following shrub encroachment and precipitation, advancing our understanding of global climate change on nematode communities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Cambrian origin but no early burst in functional disparity for Class Bivalvia

Both the Cambrian explosion, more than half a billion years ago, and its Ordovician aftermath some 35 Myr later, are often framed as episodes of widespread ecological opportunity, but not all clades originating during this interval showed prolific rises in morphological or functional disparity. In a direct analysis of functional disparity, instead of the more commonly used proxy of morphological disparity, we find that ecological functions of Class Bivalvia arose concordantly with and even lagged behind taxonomic diversification, rather than the early-burst pattern expected for clades originating in supposedly open ecological landscapes. Unlike several other clades originating in the Cambrian explosion, the bivalves' belated acquisition of key anatomical novelties imposed a macroevolutionary lag, and even when those novelties evolved in the Early Ordovician, functional disparity never surpassed taxonomic diversity. Beyond this early period of animal evolution, the founding and subsequent diversification of new major clades and their functions might be expected to follow the pattern of the early bivalves-one where interactions between highly dynamic environmental and biotic landscapes and evolutionary contingencies need not promote prolific functional innovation.

Is species richness mediated by functional and genetic divergence? A global analysis in birds

Unravelling why species richness shows such dramatic spatial variation is an ongoing challenge. Common to many theories is that increasing species richness (e.g. with latitude) requires a compensatory trade-off on an axis of species' ecology. Spatial variation in species richness may also affect genetic diversity if large numbers of coexisting, related species result in smaller population sizes.Here, we test whether increasing species richness results in differential occupation of morphospace by the constituent species, or decreases species' genetic diversity. We test for two potential mechanisms of morphological accommodation: denser packing in ecomorphological space, and expansion of the space. We then test whether species differ in their nucleotide diversity depending on allopatry or sympatry with relatives, indicative of potential genetic consequences of coexistence that would reduce genetic diversity in sympatry. We ask these questions in a spatially explicit framework, using a global database of avian functional trait measurements in combination with >120,000 sequences downloaded from GenBank.We find that higher species richness within families is not systematically correlated with either packing in morphological space or overdispersion but, at the Class level, we find a general positive relationship between packing and species richness, but that points sampled in the tropics have comparatively greater packing than temperate ones relative to their species richness. We find limited evidence that geographical co-occurrence with closely related species or tropical distributions decreases nucleotide diversity of nuclear genes; however, this requires further analysis.Our results suggest that avian families can accumulate species regionally with minimal tradeoffs or cost, implying that external biotic factors do not limit species richness. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Evolvability and Macroevolution: Overview and Synthesis

Evolvability is best addressed from a multi-level, macroevolutionary perspective through a comparative approach that tests for among-clade differences in phenotypic diversification in response to an opportunity, such as encountered after a mass extinction, entering a new adaptive zone, or entering a new geographic area. Analyzing the dynamics of clades under similar environmental conditions can (partially) factor out shared external drivers to recognize intrinsic differences in evolvability, aiming for a macroevolutionary analog of a common-garden experiment. Analyses will be most powerful when integrating neontological and paleontological data: determining differences among extant populations that can be hypothesized to generate large-scale, long-term contrasts in evolvability among clades; or observing large-scale differences among clade histories that can by hypothesized to reflect contrasts in genetics and development observed directly in extant populations. However, many comparative analyses can be informative on their own, as explored in this overview. Differences in clade-level evolvability can be visualized in diversity-disparity plots, which can quantify positive and negative departures of phenotypic productivity from stochastic expectations scaled to taxonomic diversification. Factors that evidently can promote evolvability include modularity—when selection aligns with modular structure or with morphological integration patterns; pronounced ontogenetic changes in morphology, as in allometry or multiphase life cycles; genome size; and a variety of evolutionary novelties, which can also be evaluated using macroevolutionary lags between the acquisition of a trait and phenotypic diversification, and dead-clade-walking patterns that may signal a loss of evolvability when extrinsic factors can be excluded. High speciation rates may indirectly foster phenotypic evolvability, and vice versa. Mechanisms are controversial, but clade evolvability may be higher in the Cambrian, and possibly early in the history of clades at other times; in the tropics; and, for marine organisms, in shallow-water disturbed habitats.

Distance decay 2.0 - A global synthesis of taxonomic and functional turnover in ecological communities

AIM

Understanding the variation in community composition and species abundances (i.e., β-diversity) is at the heart of community ecology. A common approach to examine β-diversity is to evaluate directional variation in community composition by measuring the decay in the similarity among pairs of communities along spatial or environmental distance. We provide the first global synthesis of taxonomic and functional distance decay along spatial and environmental distance by analysing 148 datasets comprising different types of organisms and environments.

LOCATION

Global.

TIME PERIOD

1990 to present.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

From diatoms to mammals.

METHOD

We measured the strength of the decay using ranked Mantel tests (Mantel r) and the rate of distance decay as the slope of an exponential fit using generalized linear models. We used null models to test whether functional similarity decays faster or slower than expected given the taxonomic decay along the spatial and environmental distance. We also unveiled the factors driving the rate of decay across the datasets, including latitude, spatial extent, realm and organismal features.

RESULTS

Taxonomic distance decay was stronger than functional distance decay along both spatial and environmental distance. Functional distance decay was random given the taxonomic distance decay. The rate of taxonomic and functional spatial distance decay was fastest in the datasets from mid-latitudes. Overall, datasets covering larger spatial extents showed a lower rate of decay along spatial distance but a higher rate of decay along environmental distance. Marine ecosystems had the slowest rate of decay along environmental distances.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

In general, taxonomic distance decay is a useful tool for biogeographical research because it reflects dispersal-related factors in addition to species responses to climatic and environmental variables. Moreover, functional distance decay might be a cost-effective option for investigating community changes in heterogeneous environments.

Specimen alignment with limited point-based homology: 3D morphometrics of disparate bivalve shells (Mollusca: Bivalvia)

Background

Comparative morphology fundamentally relies on the orientation and alignment of specimens. In the era of geometric morphometrics, point-based homologies are commonly deployed to register specimens and their landmarks in a shared coordinate system. However, the number of point-based homologies commonly diminishes with increasing phylogenetic breadth. These situations invite alternative, often conflicting, approaches to alignment. The bivalve shell (Mollusca: Bivalvia) exemplifies a homologous structure with few universally homologous points-only one can be identified across the Class, the shell 'beak'. Here, we develop an axis-based framework, grounded in the homology of shell features, to orient shells for landmark-based, comparative morphology.

Methods

Using 3D scans of species that span the disparity of shell morphology across the Class, multiple modes of scaling, translation, and rotation were applied to test for differences in shell shape. Point-based homologies were used to define body axes, which were then standardized to facilitate specimen alignment via rotation. Resulting alignments were compared using pairwise distances between specimen shapes as defined by surface semilandmarks.

Results

Analysis of 45 possible alignment schemes finds general conformity among the shape differences of 'typical' equilateral shells, but the shape differences among atypical shells can change considerably, particularly those with distinctive modes of growth. Each alignment corresponds to a hypothesis about the ecological, developmental, or evolutionary basis of morphological differences, but we suggest orientation via the hinge line for many analyses of shell shape across the Class, a formalization of the most common approach to morphometrics of shell form. This axis-based approach to aligning specimens facilitates the comparison of approximately continuous differences in shape among phylogenetically broad and morphologically disparate samples, not only within bivalves but across many other clades.

Calibrating phylogenies assuming bifurcation or budding alters inferred macroevolutionary dynamics in a densely sampled phylogeny of bivalve families

Analyses of evolutionary dynamics depend on how phylogenetic data are time-scaled. Most analyses of extant taxa assume a purely bifurcating model, where nodes are calibrated using the daughter lineage with the older first occurrence in the fossil record. This contrasts with budding, where nodes are calibrated using the younger first occurrence. Here, we use the extensive fossil record of bivalve molluscs for a large-scale evaluation of how branching models affect macroevolutionary analyses. We time-calibrated 91% of nodes, ranging in age from 2.59 to 485 Ma, in a phylogeny of 97 extant bivalve families. Allowing budding-based calibrations minimizes conflict between the tree and observed fossil record, and reduces the summed duration of inferred 'ghost lineages' from 6.76 billion years (Gyr; bifurcating model) to 1.00 Gyr (budding). Adding 31 extinct paraphyletic families raises ghost lineage totals to 7.86 Gyr (bifurcating) and 1.92 Gyr (budding), but incorporates more information to date divergences between lineages. Macroevolutionary analyses under a bifurcating model conflict with other palaeontological evidence on the magnitude of the end-Palaeozoic extinction, and strongly reduce Cenozoic diversification. Consideration of different branching models is essential when node-calibrating phylogenies, and for a major clade with a robust fossil record, a budding model appears more appropriate.

A positive relationship between functional redundancy and temperature in Cenozoic marine ecosystems

The long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and biogeographic patterns are uncertain. There are known relationships between geographic area and both the number of species and the number of ecological functional groups-termed the species-area relationship and the functional diversity-area relationship, respectively. We show that there is a positive relationship between the number of species in an area, the number of ecological functional groups, and oceanic temperature in the shallow-marine fossil record of New Zealand over a time span of ~40 million years. One implication of this relationship is that functional redundancy increases with temperature. This reveals a long-lived and persistent association between the spatial structuring of biodiversity, the temperature-dependence of functional redundancy, and shallow-marine biodiversity in mid-latitudes.

Selectivity and the effect of mass extinctions on disparity and functional ecology

Selectivity of mass extinctions is thought to play a major role in coupling or decoupling of taxonomic, morphological, and ecological diversity, yet these measures have never been jointly evaluated within a single clade over multiple mass extinctions. We investigate extinction selectivity and changes in taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional ecology over the ~160-million-year evolutionary history of diplobathrid crinoids (Echinodermata), which spans two mass extinctions. Whereas previous studies documented extinction selectivity for crinoids during background extinction, we find no evidence for selectivity during mass extinctions. Despite no evidence for extinction selectivity, disparity remains strongly correlated with richness over extinction events, contradicting expected patterns of disparity given nonselective extinction. Results indicate that (i) disparity and richness can remain coupled across extinctions even when selective extinction does not occur, (ii) simultaneous decreases in taxonomic diversity and disparity are insufficient evidence for extinction selectivity, and (iii) selectivity differs between background and mass extinction regimes.

Biodiversity and Habitat Assessment of Coastal Benthic Communities in a Sub-Arctic Industrial Harbor Area

Coastal ecosystems face increasing anthropogenic pressures worldwide and their management requires a solid assessment and understanding of the cumulative impacts from human activities. This study evaluates the spatial variation of benthic macrofaunal communities, sediments, and heavy metals in the sub-Arctic coastal ecosystems around Sept-Îles (Québec, Canada)—a major port area in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Physical sediment properties varied in the studied area, with a general sandy-silty profile except for specific locations in Baie des Sept Îles where higher organic matter and heavy metal concentrations were detected. Macrofaunal assemblages were evaluated for two taxa size classes (organisms > 0.5 mm and > 1 mm) and linked to habitat parameters using regression models. Communities of smaller organisms showed signs of perturbation for one assemblage close to industrial activities at Baie des Sept Îles, with an increased number of tolerant and opportunistic species, contrasting to neighboring regions whose compositions were similar to other ecosystems in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. This study enhances the understanding of sub-Arctic benthic communities and will contribute to monitoring programs for industrial harbor ecosystems.

Selective extinction against redundant species buffers functional diversity

The extinction of species can destabilize ecological processes. A way to assess the ecological consequences of species loss is by examining changes in functional diversity. The preservation of functional diversity depends on the range of ecological roles performed by species, or functional richness, and the number of species per role, or functional redundancy. However, current knowledge is based on short timescales and an understanding of how functional diversity responds to long-term biodiversity dynamics has been limited by the availability of deep-time, trait-based data. Here, we compile an exceptional trait dataset of fossil molluscs from a 23-million-year interval in the Caribbean Sea (34 011 records, 4422 species) and develop a novel Bayesian model of multi-trait-dependent diversification to reconstruct mollusc (i) diversity dynamics, (ii) changes in functional diversity, and (iii) extinction selectivity over the last 23 Myr. Our results identify high diversification between 23–5 Mya, leading to increases in both functional richness and redundancy. Conversely, over the last three million years, a period of high extinction rates resulted in the loss of 49% of species but only 3% of functional richness. Extinction rates were significantly higher in small, functionally redundant species suggesting that competition mediated the response of species to environmental change. Taken together, our results identify long-term diversification and selective extinction against redundant species that allowed functional diversity to grow over time, ultimately buffering the ecological functions of biological communities against extinction.

Ecologically diverse clades dominate the oceans via extinction resistance

Ecological differentiation is correlated with taxonomic diversity in many clades, and ecological divergence is often assumed to be a cause and/or consequence of high speciation rate. However, an analysis of 30,074 genera of living marine animals and 19,992 genera of fossil marine animals indicates that greater ecological differentiation in the modern oceans is actually associated with lower rates of origination over evolutionary time. Ecologically differentiated clades became taxonomically diverse over time because they were better buffered against extinction, particularly during mass extinctions, which primarily affected genus-rich, ecologically homogeneous clades. The relationship between ecological differentiation and taxonomic richness was weak early in the evolution of animals but has strengthened over geological time as successive extinction events reshaped the marine fauna.

Ecological Limits as the Driver of Bird Species Richness Patterns along the East Himalayan Elevational Gradient

Variation in species richness across environmental gradients results from a combination of historical nonequilibrium processes (time, speciation, extinction) and present-day differences in environmental carrying capacities (i.e., ecological limits affected by species interactions and the abundance and diversity of resources). In a study of bird richness along the subtropical east Himalayan elevational gradient, we test the prediction that species richness patterns are consistent with ecological limits using data on morphology, phylogeny, elevational distribution, and arthropod resources. Species richness peaks at midelevations. Occupied morphological volume is roughly constant from low elevations to midelevations, implying that more species are packed into the same space at midelevations compared with low elevations. However, variance in beak length and differences in beak length between close relatives decline with elevation, which is a consequence of the addition of many small insectivores at midelevations. These patterns are predicted from resource distributions: arthropod size diversity declines from low elevations to midelevations, largely because many more small insects are present at midelevations. Weak correlations of species mean morphological traits with elevation also match predictions based on resources and habitats. Elevational transects in the tropical Andes, New Guinea, and Tanzania similarly show declines in mean arthropod size and mean beak length and, in these cases, likely contribute to declining numbers of insectivorous bird species richness along these gradients. The results imply that conditions for ecological limits are met, although historical nonequilibrium processes are likely to also contribute to the pattern of species richness.

Ecological continuity and transformation after the Permo-Triassic mass extinction in northeastern Panthalassa

The Permo-Triassic mass extinction (PTME) is often implicated in the transition from the Paleozoic evolutionary fauna (PEF) to the modern evolutionary fauna (MEF). However, the exact timing and details of this progression are unknown, especially regarding the vacating and filling of functional ecological space after the PTME. Here, we quantify the functional diversity of middle Permian and Early Triassic marine paleocommunities in the western US to determine functional re-organization in the aftermath of the PTME. Results indicate that while the PTME was selective in nature, many new Triassic taxa either re-filled functional roles of extinct Permian taxa or performed the same functional roles as Permian survivors. Despite this functional overlap, Permian survivors and new Triassic taxa differed significantly in their relative abundances within those overlapping functions. This shift in numerical emphasis, driven by an increase in abundance towards more MEF-style traits, may represent a first step in the transition between the PEF and MEF. We therefore suggest that the extreme impact of the PTME had significant and permanent re-organizational effects on the intrinsic structure of marine ecosystems. Early Triassic ecosystems likely bridged the gap between the Paleozoic and modern evolutionary faunas, as newly originated Triassic taxa shared ecospace with Permian survivors, but shifted functional emphasis.

Spatial filters of function and phylogeny determine morphological disparity with latitude

The drivers of latitudinal differences in the phylogenetic and ecological composition of communities are increasingly studied and understood, but still little is known about the factors underlying morphological differences. High-resolution, three-dimensional morphological data collected using computerized micro-tomography (micro-CT) allows comprehensive comparisons of morphological diversity across latitude. Using marine bivalves as a model system, this study combines 3D shape analysis (based on a new semi-automated procedure for placing landmarks and semilandmarks on shell surfaces) with non-shape traits: centroid size, proportion of shell to soft-tissue volume, and magnitude of shell ornamentation. Analyses conducted on the morphology of 95% of all marine bivalve species from two faunas along the Atlantic coast of North America, the tropical Florida Keys and the boreal Gulf of Maine, show that morphological shifts between these two faunas, and in phylogenetic and ecological subgroups shared between them, occur as changes in total variance with a bounded minimum rather than directional shifts. The dispersion of species in shell-shape morphospace is greater in the Gulf of Maine, which also shows a lower variance in ornamentation and size than the Florida Keys, but the faunas do not differ significantly in the ratio of shell to internal volume. Thus, regional differences conform to hypothesized effects of resource seasonality and predation intensity, but not to carbonate saturation or calcification costs. The overall morphological differences between the regional faunas is largely driven by the loss of ecological functional groups and family-level clades at high latitudes, rather than directional shifts in morphology within the shared groups with latitude. Latitudinal differences in morphology thus represent a complex integration of phylogenetic and ecological factors that are best captured in multivariate analyses across several hierarchical levels.

Common latitudinal gradients in functional richness and functional evenness across marine and terrestrial systems

Functional diversity is an important aspect of biodiversity, but its relationship to species diversity in time and space is poorly understood. Here we compare spatial patterns of functional and taxonomic diversity across marine and terrestrial systems to identify commonalities in their respective ecological and evolutionary drivers. We placed species-level ecological traits into comparable multi-dimensional frameworks for two model systems, marine bivalves and terrestrial birds, and used global species-occurrence data to examine the distribution of functional diversity with latitude and longitude. In both systems, tropical faunas show high total functional richness (FR) but low functional evenness (FE) (i.e. the tropics contain a highly skewed distribution of species among functional groups). Functional groups that persist toward the poles become more uniform in species richness, such that FR declines and FE rises with latitude in both systems. Temperate assemblages are more functionally even than tropical assemblages subsampled to temperate levels of species richness, suggesting that high species richness in the tropics reflects a high degree of ecological specialization within a few functional groups and/or factors that favour high recent speciation or reduced extinction rates in those groups.

Measuring Biodiversity and Extinction-Present and Past

How biodiversity is changing in our time represents a major concern for all organismal biologists. Anthropogenic changes to our planet are decreasing species diversity through the negative effects of pollution, habitat destruction, direct extirpation of species, and climate change. But major biotic changes-including those that have both increased and decreased species diversity-have happened before in Earth's history. Biodiversity dynamics in past eras provide important context to understand ecological responses to current environmental change. The work of assessing biodiversity is woven into ecology, environmental science, conservation, paleontology, phylogenetics, evolutionary and developmental biology, and many other disciplines; yet, the absolute foundation of how we measure species diversity depends on taxonomy and systematics. The aspiration of this symposium, and complementary contributed talks, was to promote better understanding of our common goals and encourage future interdisciplinary discussion of biodiversity dynamics. The contributions in this collection of papers bring together a diverse group of speakers to confront several important themes. How can biologists best respond to the urgent need to identify and conserve diversity? How can we better communicate the nature of species across scientific disciplines? Where are the major gaps in knowledge about the diversity of living animal and plant groups, and what are the implications for understanding potential diversity loss? How can we effectively use the fossil record of past diversity and extinction to understand current biodiversity loss?

Loss of Biodiversity Dimensions through Shifting Climates and Ancient Mass Extinctions

Many aspects of climate affect the deployment of biodiversity in time and space, and so changes in climate might be expected to drive regional and global extinction of both taxa and their ecological functions. Here we examine the association of past climate changes with extinction in marine bivalves, which are increasingly used as a model system for macroecological and macroevolutionary analysis. Focusing on the Cenozoic Era (66 Myr ago to the present), we analyze extinction patterns in shallow-water marine bivalve genera relative to temperature dynamics as estimated from isotopic data in microfossils. When the entire Cenozoic timeseries is considered, extinction intensity is not significantly associated with the mean temperature or the detrended variance in temperature within a given time interval (stratigraphic stage). However, extinction increases significantly with both the rate of temperature change within the stage of extinction and the absolute change in mean temperature from the preceding stage to the stage of extinction. Thus, several extinction events, particularly the extinction pulse near the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary, do appear to have climatic drivers. Further, the latitudinal diversity gradient today and the Cenozoic history of polar faunas suggest that long-term, regional extinctions associated with cooling removed not just taxa but a variety of ecological functions from high-latitude seas. These dynamics of biodiversity loss contrast with the two mass extinctions bracketing the Mesozoic Era, which had negligible effects on the diversity of ecological functions despite removing nearly as many taxa as the latitudinal gradient does today. Thus, the fossil record raises a key issue: whether the biotic consequences of present-day stresses will more closely resemble the long-term effects of past climate changes or those that cascaded from the mass extinctions.

Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data

Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche. We test the performance of this metric-Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)-using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 2. Sorting of Variation, Some Overarching Issues, and General Conclusions

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, within a hierarchical framework. Following a companion paper on the origin of variation, I here discuss sorting within an evolutionary hierarchy. Species sorting-sometimes termed species selection in the broad sense, meaning differential origination and extinction owing to intrinsic biological properties-can be split into strict-sense species selection, in which rate differentials are governed by emergent, species-level traits such as geographic range size, and effect macroevolution, in which rates are governed by organism-level traits such as body size; both processes can create hitchhiking effects, indirectly causing the proliferation or decline of other traits. Several methods can operationalize the concept of emergence, so that rigorous separation of these processes is increasingly feasible. A macroevolutionary tradeoff, underlain by the intrinsic traits that influence evolutionary dynamics, causes speciation and extinction rates to covary in many clades, resulting in evolutionary volatility of some clades and more subdued behavior of others; the few clades that break the tradeoff can achieve especially prolific diversification. In addition to intrinsic biological traits at multiple levels, extrinsic events can drive the waxing and waning of clades, and the interaction of traits and events are difficult but important to disentangle. Evolutionary trends can arise in many ways, and at any hierarchical level; descriptive models can be fitted to clade trajectories in phenotypic or functional spaces, but they may not be diagnostic regarding processes, and close attention must be paid to both leading and trailing edges of apparent trends. Biotic interactions can have negative or positive effects on taxonomic diversity within a clade, but cannot be readily extrapolated from the nature of such interactions at the organismic level. The relationships among macroevolutionary currencies through time (taxonomic richness, morphologic disparity, functional variety) are crucial for understanding the nature of evolutionary diversification. A novel approach to diversity-disparity analysis shows that taxonomic diversifications can lag behind, occur in concert with, or precede, increases in disparity. Some overarching issues relating to both the origin and sorting of clades and phenotypes include the macroevolutionary role of mass extinctions, the potential differences between plant and animal macroevolution, whether macroevolutionary processes have changed through geologic time, and the growing human impact on present-day macroevolution. Many challenges remain, but progress is being made on two of the key ones: (a) the integration of variation-generating mechanisms and the multilevel sorting processes that act on that variation, and (b) the integration of paleontological and neontological approaches to historical biology.