Decreasing Phanerozoic extinction intensity as a consequence of Earth surface oxygenation and metazoan ecophysiology

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

Phanerozoic co-evolution of O2-CO2 and ocean habitability

This perspective reviews how atmospheric compositions, animals and marine algae evolved together to determine global ocean habitability during the past 500 million years.

Unveiling the underlying drivers of Phanerozoic marine diversification

In investigating global patterns of biodiversity through deep time, many large-scale drivers of diversification have been proposed, both biotic and abiotic. However, few robust conclusions about these hypothesized effectors or their roles have been drawn. Here, we use a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework to test for the presence of underlying drivers of diversification patterns before examining specific hypothesized drivers. Using a global dataset of observations of skeletonized marine fossils, we infer origination, extinction and sampling rates (collectively called fossil time series) throughout the Phanerozoic using a capture-mark-recapture approach. Using linear SDEs, we then compare models including and excluding hidden (i.e. unmeasured) drivers of these fossil time series. We find evidence of large-scale underlying drivers of marine Phanerozoic diversification rates and present quantitative characterizations of these. We then test whether changing global temperature, sea-level, marine sediment area or continental fragmentation could act as drivers of the fossil time series. We show that it is unlikely any of these four abiotic factors are the hidden drivers we identified, though there is evidence for correlative links between sediment area and origination/extinction rates. Our characterization of the hidden drivers of Phanerozoic diversification and sampling will aid in the search for their ultimate identities.

The paleoredox context of early eukaryotic evolution: insights from the Tonian Mackenzie Mountains Supergroup, Canada

Tonian (ca. 1000-720 Ma) marine environments are hypothesised to have experienced major redox changes coinciding with the evolution and diversification of multicellular eukaryotes. In particular, the earliest Tonian stratigraphic record features the colonisation of benthic habitats by multicellular macroscopic algae, which would have been powerful ecosystem engineers that contributed to the oxygenation of the oceans and the reorganisation of biogeochemical cycles. However, the paleoredox context of this expansion of macroalgal habitats in Tonian nearshore marine environments remains uncertain due to limited well-preserved fossils and stratigraphy. As such, the interdependent relationship between early complex life and ocean redox state is unclear. An assemblage of macrofossils including the chlorophyte macroalga Archaeochaeta guncho was recently discovered in the lower Mackenzie Mountains Supergroup in Yukon (Canada), which archives marine sedimentation from ca. 950-775 Ma, permitting investigation into environmental evolution coincident with eukaryotic ecosystem evolution and expansion. Here we present multi-proxy geochemical data from the lower Mackenzie Mountains Supergroup to constrain the paleoredox environment within which these large benthic macroalgae thrived. Two transects show evidence for basin-wide anoxic (ferruginous) oceanic conditions (i.e., high FeHR/FeT, low Fepy/FeHR), with muted redox-sensitive trace metal enrichments and possible seasonal variability. However, the weathering of sulfide minerals in the studied samples may obscure geochemical signatures of euxinic conditions. These results suggest that macroalgae colonized shallow environments in an ocean that remained dominantly anoxic with limited evidence for oxygenation until ca. 850 Ma. Collectively, these geochemical results provide novel insights into the environmental conditions surrounding the evolution and expansion of benthic macroalgae and the eventual dominance of oxygenated oceanic conditions required for the later emergence of animals.

Deep-water first occurrences of Ediacara biota prior to the Shuram carbon isotope excursion in the Wernecke Mountains, Yukon, Canada

Ediacara-type macrofossils appear as early as ~575 Ma in deep-water facies of the Drook Formation of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland, and the Nadaleen Formation of Yukon and Northwest Territories, Canada. Our ability to assess whether a deep-water origination of the Ediacara biota is a genuine reflection of evolutionary succession, an artifact of an incomplete stratigraphic record, or a bathymetrically controlled biotope is limited by a lack of geochronological constraints and detailed shelf-to-slope transects of Ediacaran continental margins. The Ediacaran Rackla Group of the Wernecke Mountains, NW Canada, represents an ideal shelf-to-slope depositional system to understand the spatiotemporal and environmental context of Ediacara-type organisms' stratigraphic occurrence. New sedimentological and paleontological data presented herein from the Wernecke Mountains establish a stratigraphic framework relating shelfal strata in the Goz/Corn Creek area to lower slope deposits in the Nadaleen River area. We report new discoveries of numerous Aspidella hold-fast discs, indicative of frondose Ediacara organisms, from deep-water slope deposits of the Nadaleen Formation stratigraphically below the Shuram carbon isotope excursion (CIE) in the Nadaleen River area. Such fossils are notably absent in coeval shallow-water strata in the Goz/Corn Creek region despite appropriate facies for potential preservation. The presence of pre-Shuram CIE Ediacara-type fossils occurring only in deep-water facies within a basin that has equivalent well-preserved shallow-water facies provides the first stratigraphic paleobiological support for a deep-water origination of the Ediacara biota. In contrast, new occurrences of Ediacara-type fossils (including juvenile fronds, Beltanelliformis, Aspidella, annulated tubes, and multiple ichnotaxa) are found above the Shuram CIE in both deep- and shallow-water deposits of the Blueflower Formation. Given existing age constraints on the Shuram CIE, it appears that Ediacaran organisms may have originated in the deeper ocean and lived there for up to ~15 million years before migrating into shelfal environments in the terminal Ediacaran. This indicates unique ecophysiological constraints likely shaped the initial habitat preference and later environmental expansion of the Ediacara biota.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Impact of global climate cooling on Ordovician marine biodiversity

Global cooling has been proposed as a driver of the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event, the largest radiation of Phanerozoic marine animal Life. Yet, mechanistic understanding of the underlying pathways is lacking and other possible causes are debated. Here we couple a global climate model with a macroecological model to reconstruct global biodiversity patterns during the Ordovician. In our simulations, an inverted latitudinal biodiversity gradient characterizes the late Cambrian and Early Ordovician when climate was much warmer than today. During the Mid-Late Ordovician, climate cooling simultaneously permits the development of a modern latitudinal biodiversity gradient and an increase in global biodiversity. This increase is a consequence of the ecophysiological limitations to marine Life and is robust to uncertainties in both proxy-derived temperature reconstructions and organism physiology. First-order model-data agreement suggests that the most conspicuous rise in biodiversity over Earth's history - the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event - was primarily driven by global cooling.

Why the Early Paleozoic was intrinsically prone to marine extinction

The geological record of marine animal biodiversity reflects the interplay between changing rates of speciation versus extinction. Compared to mass extinctions, background extinctions have received little attention. To disentangle the different contributions of global climate state, continental configuration, and atmospheric oxygen concentration (pO2) to variations in background extinction rates, we drive an animal physiological model with the environmental outputs from an Earth system model across intervals spanning the past 541 million years. We find that climate and continental configuration combined to make extinction susceptibility an order of magnitude higher during the Early Paleozoic than during the rest of the Phanerozoic, consistent with extinction rates derived from paleontological databases. The high extinction susceptibility arises in the model from the limited geographical range of marine organisms. It stands even when assuming present-day pO2, suggesting that increasing oxygenation through the Paleozoic is not necessary to explain why extinction rates apparently declined with time.

Volcanic CO2 degassing postdates thermogenic carbon emission during the end-Permian mass extinction

Massive carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are widely assumed to be the driver of the end-Permian mass extinction (EPME). However, the rate of and total CO₂ released, and whether the source changes with time, remain poorly understood, leaving a key question surrounding the trigger for the EPME unanswered. Here, we assimilate reconstructions of atmospheric Pco₂ and carbonate δ¹³C in an Earth system model to unravel the history of carbon emissions and sources across the EPME. We infer a transition from a CO₂ source with a thermogenic carbon isotopic signature associated with a slower emission rate to a heavier, more mantle-dominated volcanic source with an increased rate of emissions. This implies that the CO₂ degassing style changed as the Siberian Traps emplacement evolved, which is consistent with geochemical proxy records. Carbon cycle feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystem disturbances may have further amplified the warming and the severity of marine extinctions.

Deep resilience: An evolutionary perspective on calcification in an age of ocean acidification

The success of today's calcifying organisms in tomorrow's oceans depends, in part, on the resilience of their skeletons to ocean acidification. To the extent this statement is true there is reason to have hope. Many marine calcifiers demonstrate resilience when exposed to environments that mimic near-term ocean acidification. The fossil record similarly suggests that resilience in skeletons has increased dramatically over geologic time. This "deep resilience" is seen in the long-term stability of skeletal chemistry, as well as a decreasing correlation between skeletal mineralogy and extinction risk over time. Such resilience over geologic timescales is often attributed to genetic canalization-the hardening of genetic pathways due to the evolution of increasingly complex regulatory systems. But paradoxically, our current knowledge on biomineralization genetics suggests an opposing trend, where genes are co-opted and shuffled at an evolutionarily rapid pace. In this paper we consider two possible mechanisms driving deep resilience in skeletons that fall outside of genetic canalization: microbial co-regulation and macroevolutionary trends in skeleton structure. The mechanisms driving deep resilience should be considered when creating risk assessments for marine organisms facing ocean acidification and provide a wealth of research avenues to explore.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Breathless through Time: Oxygen and Animals across Earth's History

AbstractOxygen levels in the atmosphere and ocean have changed dramatically over Earth history, with major impacts on marine life. Because the early part of Earth's history lacked both atmospheric oxygen and animals, a persistent co-evolutionary narrative has developed linking oxygen change with changes in animal diversity. Although it was long believed that oxygen rose to essentially modern levels around the Cambrian period, a more muted increase is now believed likely. Thus, if oxygen increase facilitated the Cambrian explosion, it did so by crossing critical ecological thresholds at low O₂. Atmospheric oxygen likely remained at low or moderate levels through the early Paleozoic era, and this likely contributed to high metazoan extinction rates until oxygen finally rose to modern levels in the later Paleozoic. After this point, ocean deoxygenation (and marine mass extinctions) is increasingly linked to large igneous province eruptions-massive volcanic carbon inputs to the Earth system that caused global warming, ocean acidification, and oxygen loss. Although the timescales of these ancient events limit their utility as exact analogs for modern anthropogenic global change, the clear message from the geologic record is that large and rapid CO₂ injections into the Earth system consistently cause the same deadly trio of stressors that are observed today. The next frontier in understanding the impact of oxygen changes (or, more broadly, temperature-dependent hypoxia) in deep time requires approaches from ecophysiology that will help conservation biologists better calibrate the response of the biosphere at large taxonomic, spatial, and temporal scales.

Continental flood basalts drive Phanerozoic extinctions

Refinements of the geological timescale driven by the increasing precision and accuracy of radiometric dating have revealed an apparent correlation between large igneous provinces (LIPs) and intervals of Phanerozoic faunal turnover that has been much discussed at a qualitative level. However, the extent to which such correlations are likely to occur by chance has yet to be quantitatively tested, and other kill mechanisms have been suggested for many mass extinctions. Here, we show that the degree of temporal correlation between continental LIPs and faunal turnover in the Phanerozoic is unlikely to occur by chance, suggesting a causal relationship linking extinctions and continental flood basalts. The relationship is stronger for LIPs with higher estimated eruptive rates and for stage boundaries with higher extinction magnitudes. This suggests LIP magma degassing as a primary kill mechanism for mass extinctions and other intervals of faunal turnover, which may be related to [Formula: see text], Cl, and F release. Our results suggest continental LIPs as a major, direct driver of extinctions throughout the Phanerozoic.