Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: pastoralism, population, or policies?

Climate change and geo-environmental factors influencing desertification: a critical review

The problem of desertification (DSF) is one of the most severe environmental disasters which influence the overall condition of the environment. In Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit on Environment and Development (1922), DSF is defined as arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid induced LD and that is adopted at the UNEP's Nairobi ad hoc meeting in 1977. It has been seen that there is no variability in the trend of long-term rainfall, but the change has been found in the variability of temperature (avg. temp. 0-5 °C). There is no proof that the air pollution brought on by CO2 and other warming gases is the cause of this rise, which seems to be partially caused by urbanization. The two types of driving factors in DSF-CC (climate change) along with anthropogenic influences-must be compared in order to work and take action to stop DSF from spreading. The proportional contributions of human activity and CC to DSF have been extensively evaluated in this work from "qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative" perspectives. In this study, we have tried to connect the drives of desertification to desertification-induced migration due to loss of biodiversity and agriculture failure. The authors discovered that several of the issues from the earlier studies persisted. The policy-makers should follow the proper SLM (soil and land management) through using the land. The afforestation with social forestry and consciousness among the people can reduce the spreading of the desertification (Badapalli et al. 2023). The green wall is also playing an important role to reduce the desertification. For instance, it was clear that assessments were subjective; they could not be readily replicated, and they always relied on administrative areas rather than being taken and displayed in a continuous space. This research is trying to fulfill the mentioned research gap with the help of the existing literatures related to this field.

Social-ecological cascade effects of land use on vertebrate pest dynamics in arid agricultural communities

Extensive land conversion to agriculture in drylands and associated resource use have wide-ranging impacts on desert ecosystems globally. Incorporating the impacts of human-social aspects is thus imperative in examining ecological interactions. The provision of agricultural inputs in these resource-scarce regions supports invasive and pest species, negatively impacting both agricultural productivity and native desert ecosystems. Understanding the spatial dynamics of invasive and pest species requires analyzing both bottom-up resource availability factors underlying animal distributions and top-down biological controls. Here, we evaluate the social-ecological cascading effects of dryland agriculture on vertebrate pest communities in dryland agricultural communities of Israel. Our study region is characterized by 18 agricultural cooperatives with distinct crop regimes due to contrasting social decision-making and resource allocation schemes (i.e., communal kibbutzim vs. privatized moshavim). Crop choices further affect land management (e.g., enclosed vs. open farm systems) and resource intensity. This system is ideal for studying trophic mechanisms underlying animal assemblages between agricultural regimes. We examine the role of agricultural land-use practices on pest spatial distributions based on multiyear vertebrate pest observations with agricultural data sets. We use structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the relative importance of added agricultural resources underlying bottom-up and top-down trophic processes regulating vertebrate pest assemblages. Results reveal that crop choices determine pest distributions through bottom-up processes directly, while simultaneously driving pest competitive interactions through indirect top-down cascades impacting pest communities. For example, due to the indirect negative effect of wolves on mesopredators (foxes and jackals) mediated by livestock, the total positive effect of livestock on the abundance of mesopredators is reduced. Our study illustrates the social-ecological cascading effects of agricultural regimes on pest community assemblages mediated by contrasting agricultural land-use practices. Considering the expansion of dryland agroecological systems globally, understanding the intricate cascading pathways of predator- and prey-pest communities has important implications for agricultural management, biological invasions in drylands, and fragile desert environments.

Tracking Pathways to Recovery from Climate Shocks and Resilience Enhancement

Climate change is increasingly becoming a threat to a wide range of community livelihoods in the agro-pastoral systems across scales. Hence, recovery from impacts caused by climate change requires rational decisions, particularly how resources and activities can be mobilized to enhance resilience. In this paper, we track pathways to recovery from such climate shocks in the agro-pastoral systems in three villages; Naitolia, MwakiniJuu and MswakiniChini in northern Tanzania. A mixed methods approach was used that entailed 120 questionnaire respondents and three focus group discussion sessions, one in each village. Our findings show that livelihood assets and activities are inadequate to buffer the impacts of climate change. Despite rules and regulations that guide resource utilization; communities will continue facing climate related impacts. This is due to inherent cultural dispositions that hinder transformation from one form of livelihood assets to the other. This restricts the reception of new frontiers of experiential knowledge that would allow for livelihood diversification outside the climate dependence scenario even after the occurrence of climate hazards. We argue that any attempt of building the resilience of any social-ecological system must consider the cultural backgrounds of the communities in which resilience building is sought.

Ungulates and Their Impact on Reptiles: A Review of Interspecific Relationships

Several ungulate species are showing increasing population patterns within their geographical distribution ranges, leading to constant interactions with other animal species. Varying densities and activities of different ungulates may result in diverse impacts on other coexisting species groups, including large numbers of threatened species, such as reptiles. In this study, we performed an analysis of the available literature to investigate the impacts of ungulates on reptiles. We aimed to reveal the diversity of: (1) the geographical and environmental distribution of related investigations; (2) the ungulate and reptile species involved; and (3) the characteristics of interactions (direct or indirect, positive or negative) from 69 publications. Our results show that the most papers were reported from the Americas (42%) and Australia (28%). The proportions of studies were balanced for wild ungulates (53%) and livestock (47%). Wild boar (Sus scrofa) was found to be the most problematic species on reptiles whereas reptiles which suffered the harshest impacts were Squamates (i.e., lizards, and snakes). Ungulate activities (e.g., digging by wild boar) may directly harm reptiles (consuming or killing them) or indirectly affect them by modifying their habitats or destroying their hideouts. Some preferential effects were also noted (e.g., by moderate livestock grazing or when wild ungulates are prey for large reptiles). Published livestock impacts were mainly indirect and mostly negatively linked to overgrazing. We conclude that it is important to manage and monitor the densities of ungulates to minimize their negative impacts on reptile species, especially in case of wild boar and grazing livestock, but also to maintain their moderate beneficial effects (e.g., as prey basis).

New land tenure fences are still cropping up in the Greater Mara

Expanding and intensifying anthropogenic land use is one of the greatest drivers of changes of biodiversity loss and political inequality worldwide. In the Greater Mara, Kenya, a trend of private land enclosure is currently happening, led by smallholders wishing to protect and uphold their land titles. Here we expand on previous work by Løvschal et al. quantifying the rapid, large-scale development of fencing infrastructure that began in 1985 but has increased by 170% from 2010 onwards. We provide fine-scale analysis of the spatial and temporal trends in fencing using high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery. The formally unprotected regions have distinctly more fences than the rest of the Mara, one experiencing a 740% increase in fenced land in four years. Conservancies have an effect in stemming fencing but fences crop up within and along conservancy boundaries. We estimate the actual geographical coverage of the fences in the Mara to be 130,277 ha (19% of the total region) using an error margin of 8%, derived by calibrating our satellite mapping with ground-truth data. The study suggests the need for revising community-based eco-conservation efforts and pursuing a richer understanding of the socio-political and historical dynamics underlying this phenomenon.

Livestock displace European mouflon from optimal foraging sites

The conflict between free-ranging livestock and wildlife is a serious conservation concern across rural communities worldwide. Livestock may affect wild herbivores via direct competition for resources due to spatial and diet overlap or via behavioural interference. It is imperative that we disentangle the effects of livestock on wildlife behaviour to obtain an empirical basis able to stir management and conservation decisions. Here, we studied the effect of livestock presence on the habitat selection in a free-ranging European mouflon (Ovis aries musimon) population in Sardinia, where the species is under strict protection. We collected spatial data on mouflon and livestock during two consecutive years to investigate whether the mouflon selection of key feeding grassland sites was negatively impacted by the livestock presence. We found that mouflon preferably selected grassland, and its selection significantly increased when grass was of better quality (greener). We showed that livestock presence led to the displacement of mouflon from such preferred feeding sites, an effect clearly exacerbated by livestock proximity. We indeed found that the selection of grassland by mouflon dropped significantly when the distance between livestock and mouflon was below ~ 650 m, providing a useful management threshold indication. Livestock presence in close proximity displaced mouflon to sub-optimal habitat, and its effects may have negative impact on the population dynamic of this species which is already characterized by low female productivity within harsh Mediterranean environment. Our results give clear management indications aimed at better managing livestock grazing within natural areas to ultimately improve wildlife conservation.

Increasing Anthropogenic Disturbance Restricts Wildebeest Movement Across East African Grazing Systems

The ability to move is essential for animals to find mates, escape predation, and meet energy and water demands. This is especially important across grazing systems where vegetation productivity can vary drastically between seasons or years. With grasslands undergoing significant changes due to climate change and anthropogenic development, there is an urgent need to determine the relative impacts of these pressures on the movement capacity of native herbivores. To measure these impacts, we fitted 36 white-bearded wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) with GPS collars across three study areas in southern Kenya (Amboseli Basin, Athi-Kaputiei Plains, and Mara) to test the relationship between movement (e.g., directional persistence, speed, home range crossing time) and gradients of vegetation productivity (i.e., NDVI) and anthropogenic disturbance. As expected, wildebeest moved the most (21.0 km day–1; CI: 18.7–23.3) across areas where movement was facilitated by low human footprint and necessitated by low vegetation productivity (Amboseli Basin). However, in areas with moderate vegetation productivity (Athi-Kaputiei Plains), wildebeest moved the least (13.3 km day–1; CI: 11.0–15.5). This deviation from expectations was largely explained by impediments to movement associated with a large human footprint. Notably, the movements of wildebeest in this area were also less directed than the other study populations, suggesting that anthropogenic disturbance (i.e., roads, fences, and the expansion of settlements) impacts the ability of wildebeest to move and access available resources. In areas with high vegetation productivity and moderate human footprint (Mara), we observed intermediate levels of daily movement (14.2 km day–1; CI: 12.3–16.1). Wildebeest across each of the study systems used grassland habitats outside of protected areas extensively, highlighting the importance of unprotected landscapes for conserving mobile species. These results provide unique insights into the interactive effects of climate and anthropogenic development on the movements of a dominant herbivore in East Africa and present a cautionary tale for the development of grazing ecosystems elsewhere.

Is the southern patas monkey Erythrocebus baumstarki Africa's next primate extinction? Reassessing taxonomy, distribution, abundance, and conservation

The "Critically Endangered" southern patas monkey Erythrocebus baumstarki, thought to be endemic to Tanzania, has been resurrected to species level based on its geographic isolation, and on the coloration and pattern of its pelage. This study presents the first evidence for E. baumstarki in Kenya and reviews its historic and current geographic distributions based on the literature, museum specimens, online platforms, responses to requests for site records, and our own fieldwork. The distribution of E. baumstarki in the early 20th century was roughly 66,000 km² . This has declined about 85% to around 9700 km² at present (post-2009). The current "Extent of Occurrence" is only about 2150 km² . This species was extirpated from Kenya in about 2015 and from the Kilimanjaro Region in Tanzania in about 2011. At present, E. baumstarki appears to be restricted to the protected areas of the western Serengeti, with the western Serengeti National Park being the stronghold. The number of individuals remaining is probably between 100 and 200, including between 50 and 100 mature individuals. The ultimate threat to E. baumstarki is the very rapidly increasing human population, while the main proximate threats are the degradation, loss, and fragmentation of natural habitats, and the related competition with people and livestock for habitat and water, particularly during droughts. Other problems are hunting by poachers and domestic dogs, and probably loss of genetic variation and climate change. This article provides recommendations for reducing the threats and promoting the recovery of E. baumstarki. We hope this article heightens awareness of the dire conservation status of E. baumstarki and encourages an increase in research and conservation action for this monkey.

Assessing Interactions between Agriculture, Livestock Grazing and Wildlife Conservation Land Uses: A Historical Example from East Africa

Despite mobile livestock grazing being widely recognized as one of the most viable and sustainable land uses for semi-arid savanna, which can deliver clear wildlife conservation benefits, the levels of pastoral sedentarization and transitions to agricultural livelihoods continue to rise in many pastoral communities across the world. Using questionnaire interviews with community elders, our study assessed changing trends in livestock grazing, wildlife conservation, and sedentarization levels from the 1960s to the present day across three savannas in southern Kenya. Our study identified the drivers of land uses and land subdivision and the implications of land use change on savanna ecology. Over the last half century, there has been a 30% decline in livestock grazing land in southern Kenya due to the expansion of land for agriculture and wildlife conservation. Despite the decline, livestock grazing remains the preferred land use in subdivided and privatized lands. Pastoralist land used for wildlife conservation was perceived to be higher (30%) in southwestern Kenya compared to southeastern Kenya (16%), despite their geographical proximity. These historical insights provide useful lessons for maintaining space for wildlife, diversifying livelihoods, and increasing the resilience of pastoralists in the process of transitioning from traditional subsistence to market economies and the threats of social and ecological dislocation.

Large herbivore conservation in a changing world: Surface water provision and adaptability allow wildebeest to persist after collapse of long-range movements

Large herbivores, particularly wide-ranging species, are extensively impacted by land use transformation and other anthropogenic barriers to movement. The adaptability of a species is, therefore, crucial to determining whether populations can persist in ever smaller subsets of their historical home ranges. Access to water, by drinking or from forage moisture, is an essential requirement, and surface water provision is thus a long-established, although controversial, conservation practice. In the arid Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP), South Africa, surface water provision in the 1930s facilitated the establishment of a sedentary wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) population in a region historically accessed only in the wet season, via now collapsed long-distance movements. Here, we investigate the behaviour and diet of this wildebeest population, and how these relate to water in the landscape, to better understand the process of transitioning from a mobile to sedentary population. Data from 26 monthly surveys reveal that wildebeest distributions are shaped by water availability and salinity, shade, forage, season and possibly predator detectability. Areas with saline or no water are used predominantly in the wet season when forage moisture is high. Wet season movements beyond the study area mean the timing of wildebeest grazing in these regions matches historical timing. Grass utilization field data suggest that the KTP grazer population experiences forage deficits during the dry season, when ~80% of grass tufts are grazed and C:N and crude protein levels decline. Nonetheless, dung isotope data show that wildebeest meet their crude protein intake requirements during the dry season, likely by consuming unprecedentedly high levels of browse (>33%). While restoring the full historical range and movements of most large herbivore populations is not possible, these findings highlight that understanding the behavioural and dietary adaptability of a species can augment 'next best' efforts to conserve viable populations while home ranges contract.

Phylogeography and population structure of the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes in Kenya and the Serengeti ecosystem

Glossina pallidipes is the main vector of animal African trypanosomiasis and a potential vector of human African trypanosomiasis in eastern Africa where it poses a large economic burden and public health threat. Vector control efforts have succeeded in reducing infection rates, but recent resurgence in tsetse fly population density raises concerns that vector control programs require improved strategic planning over larger geographic and temporal scales. Detailed knowledge of population structure and dispersal patterns can provide the required information to improve planning. To this end, we investigated the phylogeography and population structure of G. pallidipes over a large spatial scale in Kenya and northern Tanzania using 11 microsatellite loci genotyped in 600 individuals. Our results indicate distinct genetic clusters east and west of the Great Rift Valley, and less distinct clustering of the northwest separate from the southwest (Serengeti ecosystem). Estimates of genetic differentiation and first-generation migration indicated high genetic connectivity within genetic clusters even across large geographic distances of more than 300 km in the east, but only occasional migration among clusters. Patterns of connectivity suggest isolation by distance across genetic breaks but not within genetic clusters, and imply a major role for river basins in facilitating gene flow in G. pallidipes. Effective population size (Ne) estimates and results from Approximate Bayesian Computation further support that there has been recent G. pallidipes population size fluctuations in the Serengeti ecosystem and the northwest during the last century, but also suggest that the full extent of differences in genetic diversity and population dynamics between the east and the west was established over evolutionary time periods (tentatively on the order of millions of years). Findings provide further support that the Serengeti ecosystem and northwestern Kenya represent independent tsetse populations. Additionally, we present evidence that three previously recognized populations (the Mbeere-Meru, Central Kenya and Coastal "fly belts") act as a single population and should be considered as a single unit in vector control.

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti-Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti-Mara show high spatial variability-with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short-term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems.

Plasticity in elk migration timing is a response to changing environmental conditions

Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate-induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade-off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd-level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE-wide changes-except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green-up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator-prey dynamics, carnivore-livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Evaluation of microclimates and assessment of thermal comfort of Panthera leo in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya

Quantifying comfort levels of lions within the Masai Mara National Reserve in Kenya is the main focus of this study. Its discourse delineates step by step the process of quantifying comfort levels of lions within the Mara. Resource-efficient measures for humans in the built environment have long been developed through the creation of passive zones and modulated ventilation. In an analogous manner, new procedures are being adapted for creating optimized microclimates in natural game reserves. This involves CFD (computational fluid dynamics)-inspired landscaping. It is seen that the predicted mean vote (PMV) values-measures of thermal comfort-exceed the expected comfortable ranges suitable for normal functioning of lions in the reserve. This calls for a detailed exploration on sustainable development of this sanctuary. The paper illustrates how modern tools in computational fluid dynamics can be used along with standard ecological models to ascertain the optimal extent of airflow, levels of hydration, and land use pattern changes affecting the prevailing microclimate.

A Co-Wife for the Cow: Gender Dimensions of Land Change and Livelihood Shift among Loita Maasai of Southern Kenya

Gender dimensions are fundamental to human/environment systems. I use gender to investigate land change in a forested area of conservation concern in the pastoral rangelands of Kenya Maasailand. Mixed methods reveal a narrative arc from the mid-1970s culminating in a transformation of land, livelihood, and culture by 2014. Empirical findings expand current understandings of livelihood shift in Maasailand to include gender dimensions critical to livelihood success. Remotely sensed satellite data and qualitative evidence expose simplistic narratives about environmental conditions in Loita Forest and Maasai women's social status. I argue that gender deserves more attention in land-change studies because of its linkages to resource utilization and drivers of forest decline around the world.

Male rutting calls synchronize reproduction in Serengeti wildebeest

Tightly synchronized reproduction in vast wildebeest herds underpins the keystone role this iconic species plays in the Serengeti. However, despite decades of study, the proximate synchronizing mechanism remains unknown. Combining a season-long field experiment with simple stochastic process models, we show that females exposed to playback of male rutting vocalizations are over three times more synchronous in their expected time to mating than a control group isolated from all male stimuli. Additionally, predictions of both mating and calving synchrony based on the playback group were highly consistent with independent data on wildebeest mating and calving synchrony, while control-based predictions were inconsistent with the data. Taken together, our results provide the first experimental evidence that male rutting vocalizations alone could account for the highly synchronized reproduction observed in Serengeti wildebeest. Given anthropogenically driven losses in many areas, a mechanistic understanding of synchrony can highlight additional risks declining wildebeest populations may face.

The influence of a semi-arid sub-catchment on suspended sediments in the Mara River, Kenya

The Mara River Basin in East Africa is a trans-boundary basin of international significance experiencing excessive levels of sediment loads. Sediment levels in this river are extremely high (turbidities as high as 6,000 NTU) and appear to be increasing over time. Large wildlife populations, unregulated livestock grazing, and agricultural land conversion are all potential factors increasing sediment loads in the semi-arid portion of the basin. The basin is well-known for its annual wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) migration of approximately 1.3 million individuals, but it also has a growing population of hippopotami (Hippopotamus amphibius), which reside within the river and may contribute to the flux of suspended sediments. We used in situ pressure transducers and turbidity sensors to quantify the sediment flux at two sites for the Mara River and investigate the origin of riverine suspended sediment. We found that the combined Middle Mara-Talek catchment, a relatively flat but semi-arid region with large populations of wildlife and domestic cattle, is responsible for 2/3 of the sediment flux. The sediment yield from the combined Middle Mara-Talek catchment is approximately the same as the headwaters, despite receiving less rainfall. There was high monthly variability in suspended sediment fluxes. Although hippopotamus pools are not a major source of suspended sediments under baseflow, they do contribute to short-term variability in suspended sediments. This research identified sources of suspended sediments in the Mara River and important regions of the catchment to target for conservation, and suggests hippopotami may influence riverine sediment dynamics.

Interacting effects of land use and climate on rodent-borne pathogens in central Kenya

Understanding the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on zoonotic disease risk is both a critical conservation objective and a public health priority. Here, we evaluate the effects of multiple forms of anthropogenic disturbance across a precipitation gradient on the abundance of pathogen-infected small mammal hosts in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system in central Kenya. Our results suggest that conversion to cropland and wildlife loss alone drive systematic increases in rodent-borne pathogen prevalence, but that pastoral conversion has no such systematic effects. The effects are most likely explained both by changes in total small mammal abundance, and by changes in relative abundance of a few high-competence species, although changes in vector assemblages may also be involved. Several pathogens responded to interactions between disturbance type and climatic conditions, suggesting the potential for synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on the distribution of disease risk. Overall, these results indicate that conservation can be an effective tool for reducing abundance of rodent-borne pathogens in some contexts (e.g. wildlife loss alone); however, given the strong variation in effects across disturbance types, pathogen taxa and environmental conditions, the use of conservation as public health interventions will need to be carefully tailored to specific pathogens and human contexts.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.

Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya

Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC), located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996–2015. 1) Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996–2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2) Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3) Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson’s gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4) Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5) Grant’s gazelle, Grevy’s zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell’s zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6) Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and carnivores increased overall whereas that of herbivores first increased from 1996 to 2006 and then levelled off thereafter. Aggregate herbivore biomass increased linearly with increasing cumulative wet season rainfall. The densities of the 30 most abundant species were either strongly positively or negatively correlated with cumulative past rainfall, most commonly with the early wet season component. The collaborative wildlife conservation and management initiatives undertaken on the mosaic of private, communal and public lands were thus associated with increase or no decrease in numbers of 32 and decrease in numbers of 12 of the 44 species. Despite the decline by some species, effective community-based conservation is central to the future of wildlife in the NWC and other rangelands of Kenya and beyond and is crucially dependent on the good will, effective engagement and collective action of local communities, working in partnerships with various organizations, which, in NWC, operated under the umbrella of the Nakuru Wildlife Forum.

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands.

"The Maasai Need Cows and the Cows Need Maasai," the Use of a Photovoice Approach to Assess Animal Health Needs

The Maasai pastoralists in sub-Saharan Africa depend on their livestock for income and food. Livestock production can be significantly improved by addressing animal health concerns. We explored the use of photovoice, a participatory action research method, to strengthen our understanding of the Maasai's animal health needs. Nine interviewees, representing warriors, elders, and women, identified animal, social, and human health themes. The use of photography provided a new medium for Maasai to express their needs and a focus for researcher-participant communications, thereby facilitating new insights across language and cultural barriers.

Molecular Detection and Characterization of Theileria Infecting Wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya

Theileria is a genus of tick-borne protozoan that is globally widespread and infects nearly all ungulates in which they cause either latent infection or lethal disease. Wild animals are considered reservoir hosts of many species of Theileria and their diversity in wildlife species is increasingly becoming of interest. The molecular characterization and identification of Theileria infecting wildlife has been studied in a few species including buffalo, which are considered reservoir host for Theileria parva infecting cattle. In this study, we sequenced Theileria species infecting wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) and used molecular-genetic and phylogenetic analysis of the 18 Small Subunit of the Ribosomal RNA (18S rRNA) to identify their relationships with known species of Theileria. Our results revealed three new Theileria haplotypes infecting wildebeest. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that haplotype 1 and 2 clustered in the same clade as Theileria separata and with Theileria sp. isolated from other small to medium sized antelopes. Haplotype 3 clustered close to the Theileria ovis clade. This is the first molecular description and characterization of Theileria species infecting blue wildebeest in East Africa. This study demonstrates the potential for Theileria transmission between wildebeest and small domestic ungulates, such as sheep and goats.

Effects of land use on plague (Yersinia pestis) activity in rodents in Tanzania

Understanding the effects of land-use change on zoonotic disease risk is a pressing global health concern. Here, we compare prevalence of Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of plague, in rodents across two land-use types-agricultural and conserved-in northern Tanzania. Estimated abundance of seropositive rodents nearly doubled in agricultural sites compared with conserved sites. This relationship between land-use type and abundance of seropositive rodents is likely mediated by changes in rodent and flea community composition, particularly via an increase in the abundance of the commensal species, Mastomys natalensis, in agricultural habitats. There was mixed support for rodent species diversity negatively impacting Y. pestis seroprevalence. Together, these results suggest that land-use change could affect the risk of local transmission of plague, and raise critical questions about transmission dynamics at the interface of conserved and agricultural habitats. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding disease ecology in the context of rapidly proceeding landscape change.

Local-scale dynamics and local drivers of bushmeat trade

Bushmeat management policies are often developed outside the communities in which they are to be implemented. These policies are also routinely designed to be applied uniformly across communities with little regard for variation in social or ecological conditions. We used fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping, a form of participatory modeling, to compare the assumptions driving externally generated bushmeat management policies with perceptions of bushmeat trade dynamics collected from local community members who admitted to being recently engaged in bushmeat trading (e.g., hunters, sellers, consumers). Data were collected during 9 workshops in 4 Tanzanian villages bordering Serengeti National Park. Specifically, we evaluated 9 community-generated models for the presence of the central factors that comprise and drive the bushmeat trade and whether or not models included the same core concepts, relationships, and logical chains of reasoning on which bushmeat conservation policies are commonly based. Across local communities, there was agreement about the most central factors important to understanding the bushmeat trade (e.g., animal recruitment, low income, and scarcity of food crops). These matched policy assumptions. However, the factors perceived to drive social-ecological bushmeat trade dynamics were more diverse and varied considerably across communities (e.g., presence or absence of collaborative law enforcement, increasing human population, market demand, cultural preference). Sensitive conservation issues, such as the bushmeat trade, that require cooperation between communities and outside conservation organizations can benefit from participatory modeling approaches that make local-scale dynamics and conservation policy assumptions explicit. Further, communities' and conservation organizations' perceptions need to be aligned. This can improve success by allowing context appropriate policies to be developed, monitored, and appropriately adapted as new evidence is generated.

Heading for the hills: risk avoidance drives den site selection in African wild dogs

Compared to their main competitors, African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) have inferior competitive abilities and interspecific competition is a serious fitness-limiting factor. Lions (Panthera leo) are the dominant large carnivore in African savannah ecosystems and wild dogs avoid them both spatially and temporally. Wild dog young are particularly vulnerable and suffer high rates of mortality from lions. Since lions do not utilize all parts of the landscape with an equal intensity, spatial variation in lion densities can be exploited by wild dogs both during their general ranging behaviour, but more specifically when they are confined to a den with vulnerable young. Since patches of rugged terrain are associated with lower lion densities, we hypothesized that these comparatively safe habitats should be selected by wild dogs for denning. We investigated the relationship between the distribution of 100 wild dog den sites and the occurrence of rugged terrain in four wild dog populations located in Tanzania, Zimbabwe and South Africa. A terrain ruggedness index was derived from a 90 m digital elevation model and used to map terrain ruggedness at each site. We compared characteristics of actual and potential (random) den sites to determine how wild dogs select den sites. The distributions of wild dog dens were strongly associated with rugged terrain and wild dogs actively selected terrain that was more rugged than that available on average. The likelihood of encountering lions is reduced in these habitats, minimizing the risk to both adults and pups. Our findings have important implications for the conservation management of the species, especially when assessing habitat suitability for potential reintroductions. The simple technique used to assess terrain ruggedness may be useful to investigate habitat suitability, and even predict highly suitable denning areas, across large landscapes.

Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving force in Jiangsu Province

Scientific interpretation of the mechanism of land use change is important for government planning and management activities. This study analyzes the land use change in Jiangsu Province using three land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2008. The study results show that there was a significant change in land use. The change was mainly characterized by a continuous built-up land expansion primarily at the expense of cropland loss, and the trend became increasingly rapid. There was an obvious regional difference, as most of the cropland loss or built-up land expansion took place in southern Jiangsu, where the rate of built-up land expansion was faster than in central and northern Jiangsu. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern changed remarkably; in general, the number of patches (NumP) showed a declining trend, and the mean patch size (MPS) and patch size standard deviation (PSSD) displayed increase trends. Furthermore, the relative importance of selected driven factors was identified by principal component analysis (PCA) and general linear model (GLM). The results showed that not only the relative importance of a specific driving factor may vary, but the driven factors may as well. The most important driven factor changed from urban population (UP), secondary gross domestic product (SGDP) and gross domestic product (GDP) during 2000-2005 to resident population (RP), population density (POD) and UP during 2005-2008, and the deviance explained (DE) decreased from 91.60% to 81.04%. Policies also had significant impacts on land use change, which can be divided into direct and indirect impacts. Development policies usually had indirect impacts, particularly economic development policies, which promote the economic development to cause land use change, while land management policies had direct impacts. We suggest that the government should think comprehensively and cautiously when proposing a new development strategy or plan.

Regional differences in seasonal timing of rainfall discriminate between genetically distinct East African giraffe taxa

Masai (Giraffa tippelskirchi), Reticulated (G. reticulata) and Rothschild's (G. camelopardalis) giraffe lineages in East Africa are morphologically and genetically distinct, yet in Kenya their ranges abut. This raises the question of how divergence is maintained among populations of a large mammal capable of long-distance travel, and which readily hybridize in zoos. Here we test four hypotheses concerning the maintenance of the phylogeographic boundaries among the three taxa: 1) isolation-by-distance; 2) physical barriers to dispersal; 3) general habitat differences resulting in habitat segregation; or 4) regional differences in the seasonal timing of rainfall, and resultant timing of browse availability. We used satellite remotely sensed and climate data to characterize the environment at the locations of genotyped giraffes. Canonical variate analysis, random forest algorithms, and generalized dissimilarity modelling were employed in a landscape genetics framework to identify the predictor variables that best explained giraffes' genetic divergence. We found that regional differences in the timing of precipitation, and resulting green-up associated with the abundance of browse, effectively discriminate between taxa. Local habitat conditions, topographic and human-induced barriers, and geographic distance did not aid in discriminating among lineages. Our results suggest that selection associated with regional timing of events in the annual climatic cycle may help maintain genetic and phenotypic divergence in giraffes. We discuss potential mechanisms of maintaining divergence, and suggest that synchronization of reproduction with seasonal rainfall cycles that are geographically distinct may contribute to reproductive isolation. Coordination of weaning with green-up cycles could minimize the costs of lactation and predation on the young. Our findings are consistent with theory and empirical results demonstrating the efficacy of seasonal or phenologically dictated selection pressures in contributing to the reproductive isolation of parapatric populations.

Exploring farmer preferences for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia vaccination: a case study of Narok District of Kenya

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p<0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p>0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines.

Changes to land tenure and pastoral lease ownership in Western Australia’s central rangelands: implications for co-operative, landscape-scale management

The majority of arid and semiarid land in the Western Australian pastoral zone has a long history of livestock grazing within an extensive network of predominantly family-held pastoral leases. A variety of different groups have purchased pastoral leases in the last five decades and, for many, making a profit from pastoralism is no longer a priority. For the central rangelands of Western Australia, these groups have included: government agencies, who have purchased some 9% of pastoral leases by area; private conservation organisations (<1% purchased); aboriginal communities and groups (~7%); and mining companies (~13%). The purchases of pastoral leases by government agencies was designed to improve the conservation status of arid-zone ecosystems, and is the first step in a process of changing land tenure to a conservation reserve. This paper summarises the extent and other characteristics of these changes in land tenure and ownership of pastoral leases, and explores the implications for land management and conservation, stemming from these changes. It demonstrates that large areas of contiguous land with no or reduced domestic stocking can now be found in many parts of these rangelands, particularly in the Coolgardie, Yalgoo and Pilbara bio-regions, with some leaseholders actively managing land for the conservation of biodiversity and restoring sites degraded through past over-grazing. In some bio-regions, such land covers considerable proportions of sub-catchments, suggesting that broad-scale conservation management and restoration objectives may be realised. It is argued that to fully realise these objectives requires effective communication and co-ordination between land managers, including sharing of ideas, view-points and resources. In particular, mining companies, now major holders of pastoral leases in Western Australia, can play an important role in contributing to and even facilitating such objectives.

Long-term temporal and spatial dynamics of food availability for endangered mountain gorillas in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda

Monitoring temporal and spatial changes in the resource availability of endangered species contributes to their conservation. The number of critically endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in the Virunga Volcano population has doubled over the past three decades, but no studies have examined how food availability has changed during that period. First, we assessed if the plant species consumed by the gorillas have changed in abundance and distribution during the past two decades. In 2009-2010, we replicated a study conducted in 1988-1989 by measuring the frequency, density, and biomass of plant species consumed by the gorillas in 496 plots (ca. 6 km(2)) in the Karisoke study area in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We expected to observe a decreased presence of major gorilla food plants as a likely result of density-dependent overharvesting by gorillas. Among the five most frequently consumed species (composing approximately 70% of the gorilla's diet, excluding bamboo), two have decreased in availability and abundance, while three have increased. Some species have undergone shifts in their altitudinal distribution, possibly due to regional climatic changes. Second, we made baseline measurements of food availability in a larger area currently utilized by the gorillas. In the extended sampling (n = 473 plots) area (ca. 25 km(2) ), of the five most frequently consumed species, two were not significantly different in frequency from the re-sampled area, while two occurred significantly less frequently, and one occurred significantly more frequently. We discuss the potential impact of gorilla-induced herbivory on changes of vegetation abundance. The changes in the species most commonly consumed by the gorillas could affect their nutrient intake and stresses the importance of monitoring the interrelation among plant population dynamics, species density, and resource use.

The distribution of large herbivore hotspots in relation to environmental and anthropogenic correlates in the Mara region of Kenya

1. The distributions of large herbivores in protected areas and their surroundings are becoming increasingly restricted by changing land use, with adverse consequences for wildlife populations. 2. We analyse changes in distributions of herbivore hotspots to understand their environmental and anthropogenic correlates using 50 aerial surveys conducted at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 km(2) (n = 289 cells) in the Mara region of Kenya during 1977-2010. We compare the distributions across seasons, land use types (protection, pastoralism and agro-pastoralism) and 10 species with different body sizes and feeding styles. 3. Small herbivores that are the most susceptible to predation and dependent on high-quality forage concentrate in the greenest and wet areas and close to rivers in Masai pastoral ranches in both seasons. Livestock grazing creates conditions favouring small herbivores in these ranches, including high-quality short grasses and better visibility, implying facilitation. But in the reserve, they concentrate in browner, drier and flatter areas and farther from rivers, suggesting facilitation by large grazers in the wet season, or little competition with migratory herbivores occupying the reserve in the dry season. 4. In the wet season, medium herbivores concentrate in similar areas to small herbivores in the ranches and reserve. However, in the dry season, they stay in the reserve, and also concentrate in green and wet areas close to rivers when migrants occur in the reserve. As such areas typically have higher predation risk, this suggests facilitation by the migrants by absorbing most predation pressure or, alternatively, competitive displacement by the migrants from preferred habitats. 5. Large herbivores, which suffer the least predation, depend on bulk forage and are the most likely to engender conflicts with people, concentrate in the reserve all year. This suggests attraction to the taller and denser grass and perceived greater safety in the reserve in both seasons. 6. These results reveal how predation risk, forage quantity and quality, water, competition with and facilitation by livestock interact with individual life-history traits, seasons and land use in shaping the dynamics of herbivore hotspots in protected and human-dominated savannas.

Population trend and distribution of the Vulnerable common hippopotamus Hippopotamus amphibius in the Mara Region of Kenya

The common hippopotamus Hippopotamus amphibius can significantly influence the dynamics of ecosystems and engender serious conflicts with people but, in Kenya, one of the species strongholds, it has been little studied or monitored. We surveyed the hippopotamus population in the Masai Mara National Reserve and the adjoining pastoral ranches in 2006 using foot counts along 155.3 km of the main rivers. We counted 4,170 hippopotamuses in 171 schools. Comparisons with earlier surveys suggest that this population increased by 169.6% between 1971 and 1980 within the reserve and, although it did not increase within the reserve during 1980–2006, it increased by 359.4% outside the reserve during this period against a background of deteriorating habitat conditions. The overall density in 2006 was 26.9 hippopotamuses km-1 of river, equivalent to a biomass of 26,677 kg km-1 of river. The ratio of calves to 100 adults was 9:100 inside the reserve, 10:100 outside the reserve and 6:100 along tributaries of the Mara River, implying that the population is either increasing or that its spatial distribution is being compressed because of range contraction. The apparent increase in the hippopotamus population contrasts with marked contemporaneous declines in the populations of most other large mammalian herbivore species in the Reserve. We discuss possible reasons underlying the increase in the hippopotamus population.

Protected areas and community incentives in savannah ecosystems: a case study of Tanzania’s Maasai Steppe

Two issues of central importance to conservation are developing an improved understanding of the relative roles of state protected areas and local institutions and developing effective strategies for creating community-based incentives for conservation. We provide a case study of northern Tanzania’s Maasai Steppe to explore these issues in the context of a savannah ecosystem where wildlife is mobile and depends extensively on community lands for seasonal habitats. We compare the impacts and outcomes of four approaches to developing local incentives for wildlife conservation on community lands: protected area benefit-sharing, trophy hunting donations, village–private tourism concession contracts, and a direct payment scheme for habitat conservation. Tourism and direct payment concession areas have resulted in large areas of community land being protected for wildlife by villages as a result of the conditional and contractual nature of these ventures. By contrast, other approaches that provide economic benefits to communities but are not conditional on defined conservation actions at the local level demonstrate little impact on wildlife conservation on community lands. In spatially extensive ecosystems where protected areas cover limited areas and wildlife relies heavily on community and private lands, strategies based on maximizing the direct income of communities from wildlife are fundamental to the sustainability of such systems.

Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system

Migratory ungulates may be particularly vulnerable to the challenges imposed by growing human populations and climate change. These species depend on vast areas to sustain their migratory behavior, and in many cases come into frequent contact with human populations outside protected areas. They may also act as spatial coupling agents allowing feedbacks between ecological systems and local economies, particularly in the agropastoral subsistence economies found in the African savanna biome. We used HUMENTS, a spatially realistic socioecological model of the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in East Africa, to explore the potential impacts of changing climate and poaching on the migratory wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) population, the fire regime, and habitat structure in the ecosystem, as well as changes in the size and economic activities of the human population outside the protected area. Unlike earlier models, the HUMENTS model predicted only moderate declines in the wildebeest population associated with an increasing human population over the next century, with a gradual expansion of agriculture, more poaching, and increases in fire frequency and reduced tree density. Changes in rainfall were predicted to have strong asymmetric effects on the size and economic activity of the human population and on livestock, and more moderate effects on wildlife and other ecological indicators. Conversely, antipoaching had a stronger effect on the ecological portion of the system because of its effect on wildebeest (and therefore on fire and habitat structure), and a weaker effect on the socioeconomic component, except in areas directly adjacent to the protected-area boundary, which were affected by crop-raiding and the availability of wildlife as a source of income. The results highlight the strong direct and indirect effects of rainfall on the various components of socioecological systems in semiarid environments, and the key role of mobile wildlife populations as agents of spatial coupling between the human-dominated and natural portions of ecosystems. They also underscore the fundamental importance of considering the spatial configuration of hunting refuges across the landscape in relation to human populations.