Warming-induced tree growth may help offset increasing disturbance across the Canadian boreal forest

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape-level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat-derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post-fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space-for-time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid-succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8-40% during June and July for 2- to 59-year stands relative to pre-fire controls. From the analysis of post-fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long-term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early- and mid-summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long-term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long-term increases in carbon storage.

A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances

Aim

Forest disturbances are increasing around the globe due to changes in climate and management, deteriorating forests' carbon sink strength. Estimates of global forest carbon budgets account for losses of plant biomass but often neglect the effects of disturbances on soil organic carbon (SOC). Here, we aimed to quantify and conceptualize SOC losses in response to different disturbance agents on a global scale.

Location

Global.

Time Period

1983-2022.

Major Taxa Studied

Forest soils.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive global analysis of the effects of harvesting, wildfires, windstorms and insect infestations on forest SOC stocks in the surface organic layer and top mineral soil, synthesizing 927 paired observations from 151 existing field studies worldwide. We further used global mapping to assess potential SOC losses upon disturbance.

Results

We found that both natural and anthropogenic forest disturbances can cause large SOC losses up to 60 Mg ha-1. On average, the largest SOC losses were found after wildfires, followed by disturbances from windstorms, harvests and insects. However, initial carbon stock size, rather than disturbance agent, had the strongest influence on the magnitude of SOC losses. SOC losses were greatest in cold-climate forests (boreal and mountainous regions) with large accumulations of organic matter on or near the soil surface. Negative effects are present for at least four decades post-disturbance. In contrast, forests with small initial SOC stocks experienced quantitatively lower carbon losses, and their stocks returned to pre-disturbance levels more quickly.

Main Conclusions

Our results indicate that the more carbon is stored in the forest's organic layers and top mineral soils, the more carbon will be lost after disturbance. Robust estimates of forest carbon budgets must therefore consider disturbance-induced SOC losses, which strongly depend on site-specific stocks. Particularly in cold-climate forests, these disturbance-related losses may challenge forest management efforts to sequester CO2.