Reanalysis of the Harvard Six Cities Study, part II: sensitivity analysis

Alzheimer's Related Neurodegeneration Mediates Air Pollution Effects on Medial Temporal Lobe Atrophy

Exposure to ambient air pollution, especially particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), are environmental risk factors for Alzheimer's disease and related dementia. The medial temporal lobe (MTL) is an important brain region subserving episodic memory that atrophies with age, during the Alzheimer's disease continuum, and is vulnerable to the effects of cerebrovascular disease. Despite the importance of air pollution it is unclear whether exposure leads to atrophy of the MTL and by what pathways. Here we conducted a longitudinal study examining associations between ambient air pollution exposure and MTL atrophy and whether putative air pollution exposure effects resembled Alzheimer's disease-related neurodegeneration or cerebrovascular disease-related neurodegeneration. Participants included older women (n = 627; aged 71-87) who underwent two structural brain MRI scans (MRI-1: 2005-6; MRI-2: 2009-10) as part of the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study of Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Regionalized universal kriging was used to estimate annual concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 at residential locations aggregated to 3-year averages prior to MRI-1. The outcome was 5-year standardized change in MTL volumes. Mediators included voxel-based MRI measures of the spatial pattern of neurodegeneration of Alzheimer's disease (Alzheimer's disease pattern similarity scores [AD-PS]) and whole-brain white matter small-vessel ischemic disease (WM-SVID) volume as a proxy of global cerebrovascular damage. Structural equation models were constructed to examine whether the associations between exposures with MTL atrophy were mediated by the initial level or concurrent change in AD-PS score or WM-SVID while adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, clinical characteristics, and intracranial volume. Living in locations with higher PM2.5 (per interquartile range [IQR]=3.17μg/m3) or NO2 (per IQR=6.63ppb) was associated with greater MTL atrophy (βPM2.5 = -0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]=[-0.41,-0.18]; βNO2 =-0.12, 95%CI=[-0.23,-0.02]). Greater PM2.5 was associated with larger increases in AD-PS (βPM2.5 = 0.23, 95%CI=[0.12,0.33]) over time, which partially mediated associations with MTL atrophy (indirect effect= -0.10; 95%CI=[-0.15, -0.05]), explaining approximately 32% of the total effect. NO2 was positively associated with AD-PS at MRI-1 (βNO2=0.13, 95%CI=[0.03,0.24]), which partially mediated the association with MTL atrophy (indirect effect= -0.01, 95% CI=[-0.03,-0.001]). Global WM-SVID at MRI-1 or concurrent change were not significant mediators between exposures and MTL atrophy. Findings support the mediating role of Alzheimer's disease-related neurodegeneration contributing to MTL atrophy associated with late-life exposures to air pollutants. Alzheimer's disease-related neurodegeneration only partially explained associations between exposure and MTL atrophy suggesting the role of multiple neuropathological processes underlying air pollution neurotoxicity on brain aging.

Open science, the replication crisis, and environmental public health

Concerns about a crisis of mass irreplicability across scientific fields ("the replication crisis") have stimulated a movement for open science, encouraging or even requiring researchers to publish their raw data and analysis code. Recently, a rule at the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) would have imposed a strong open data requirement. The rule prompted significant public discussion about whether open science practices are appropriate for fields of environmental public health. The aims of this paper are to assess (1) whether the replication crisis extends to fields of environmental public health; and (2) in general whether open science requirements can address the replication crisis. There is little empirical evidence for or against mass irreplicability in environmental public health specifically. Without such evidence, strong claims about whether the replication crisis extends to environmental public health - or not - seem premature. By distinguishing three concepts - reproducibility, replicability, and robustness - it is clear that open data initiatives can promote reproducibility and robustness but do little to promote replicability. I conclude by reviewing some of the other benefits of open science, and offer some suggestions for funding streams to mitigate the costs of adoption of open science practices in environmental public health.

Self-rated stress, distress, mental health, and health as modifiers of the association between long-term exposure to ambient pollutants and mortality

BACKGROUND

Individual and neighbourhood-scale socioeconomic characteristics modify associations between exposure to air pollution and mortality. The role of stress, which may integrate effects of social and environmental exposures on health, is unknown. We examined whether an individual's perspective on their own well-being, as assessed using self-rated measures of stress and health, modifies the pollutant-mortality relationship.

METHODS

The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)-mortality cohort includes respondents from surveys administered between 2001 and 2012 linked to vital statistics and postal codes from 1981 until 2016. Annual fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and ozone (O₃) exposure estimates were attached to a sample of cohort members aged 30-89 years (n = 398,300 respondents/3,848,400 person-years). We examined whether self-rated stress, distress, mental health, and general health modified associations between long-term exposure to each pollutant (three-year moving average with one-year lag) and non-accidental mortality using Cox survival models, adjusted for individual- (i.e. socioeconomic and behavioural) and neighbourhood-scale covariates.

RESULTS

In fully-adjusted models, the relationship between exposure to pollutants and mortality was stronger among those with poor self-rated mental health, including a significant difference for NO₂ (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25 per IQR) compared to those with very good/excellent mental health (HR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.08; Cochran's Q = 4.01; p < 0.05). Poor self-rated health was similarly associated with higher pollutant-associated HRs, but only in unadjusted models. Stress and distress did not modify pollutant-mortality associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor self-rated mental and general health were associated with increased mortality attributed to exposure to ambient pollutants.

[The effect of air pollution in diffuse interstitial lung disease]

Few studies have examined the effects of air pollution in diffuse interstitial lung disease and they have focused on small numbers of patients. Most data are available in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and studies suggest that the level of exposure to pollutants may influence the development of acute exacerbations (ozone and NO₂), their incidence (NO₂), decline in respiratory function (PM₁₀) and death (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5). Several studies show an increase in the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in people living near busy roads. In systemic scleroderma, hypersensitivity pneumonitis and sarcoidosis although negative effects of pollution have been reported the data are insufficient to be conclusive. Nevertheless, the observed effects of air pollution are consistent with those described for other chronic respiratory diseases. Exposure to pollution induces oxidative stress, chronic inflammation and shortening of telomeres, which are all mechanisms described in fibrogenesis. New epidemiological studies are needed with individual measurements of exposure to outdoor and indoor pollution, as well as fundamental studies to clarify the effect of pollution on fibrogenesis.

Characteristics of cohort studies of long-term exposure to PM2.5: a systematic review

This study systematically reviewed all the cohort studies investigating the relationship between long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and any health outcome until February 2018. We searched ISI Web of Knowledge, Pubmed, and Scopus databases for peer-reviewed journal research articles published in English. We only extracted the results of the single-pollutant main analysis of each study, excluding the effect modifications and sensitivity analyses. Out of the initial 9523 articles, 203 articles were ultimately included for analysis. Based on the different characteristics of studies such as study design, outcome, exposure assessment method, and statistical model, we calculated the number and relative frequency of analyses with statistically significant and insignificant results. Most of the studies were prospective (84.8%), assessed both genders (66.5%), and focused on a specific age range (86.8%). Most of the articles (78.1%) had used modeling techniques for exposure assessment of cohorts' participants. Among the total of 317 health outcomes, the most investigated outcomes include mortality due to cardiovascular disease (6.19%), all causes (5.48%), lung cancer (4.00%), ischemic heart disease (3.50%), and non-accidental causes (3.50%). The percentage of analyses with statistically significant results were higher among studies that used prospective design, mortality as the outcome, fixed stations as exposure assessment method, hazard ratio as risk measure, and no covariate adjustment. We can somehow conclude that the choice of right characteristics for cohort studies can make a difference in their results.

Air pollution, lung function and COPD: results from the population-based UK Biobank study

Ambient air pollution increases the risk of respiratory mortality, but evidence for impacts on lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is less well established. The aim was to evaluate whether ambient air pollution is associated with lung function and COPD, and explore potential vulnerability factors.We used UK Biobank data on 303 887 individuals aged 40-69 years, with complete covariate data and valid lung function measures. Cross-sectional analyses examined associations of land use regression-based estimates of particulate matter (particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 and 10 µm: PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, respectively; and coarse particles with diameter between 2.5 μm and 10 μm: PM_coarse) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC), the FEV₁/FVC ratio and COPD (FEV₁/FVC <lower limit of normal). Effect modification was investigated for sex, age, obesity, smoking status, household income, asthma status and occupations previously linked to COPD.Higher exposures to each pollutant were significantly associated with lower lung function. A 5 µg·m^-3 increase in PM_2.5 concentration was associated with lower FEV₁ (-83.13 mL, 95% CI -92.50- -73.75 mL) and FVC (-62.62 mL, 95% CI -73.91- -51.32 mL). COPD prevalence was associated with higher concentrations of PM_2.5 (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.42-1.62, per 5 µg·m^-3), PM₁₀ (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.00-1.16, per 5 µg·m^-3) and NO₂ (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.10-1.14, per 10 µg·m^-3), but not with PM_coarse Stronger lung function associations were seen for males, individuals from lower income households, and "at-risk" occupations, and higher COPD associations were seen for obese, lower income, and non-asthmatic participants.Ambient air pollution was associated with lower lung function and increased COPD prevalence in this large study.

Long-term exposure to ambient ozone and mortality: a quantitative systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from cohort studies

OBJECTIVES

While there is good evidence for associations between short-term exposure to ozone and a range of adverse health outcomes, the evidence from narrative reviews for long-term exposure is suggestive of associations with respiratory mortality only. We conducted a systematic, quantitative evaluation of the evidence from cohort studies, reporting associations between long-term exposure to ozone and mortality.

METHODS

Cohort studies published in peer-reviewed journals indexed in EMBASE and MEDLINE to September 2015 and PubMed to October 2015 and cited in reviews/key publications were identified via search strings using terms relating to study design, pollutant and health outcome. Study details and estimate information were extracted and used to calculate standardised effect estimates expressed as HRs per 10 ppb increment in long-term ozone concentrations.

RESULTS

14 publications from 8 cohorts presented results for ozone and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We found no evidence of associations between long-term annual O3 concentrations and the risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, or lung cancer. 4 cohorts assessed ozone concentrations measured during the warm season. Summary HRs for cardiovascular and respiratory causes of death derived from 3 cohorts were 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.02) and 1.03 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.05) per 10 ppb, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our quantitative review revealed a paucity of independent studies regarding the associations between long-term exposure to ozone and mortality. The potential impact of climate change and increasing anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors on ozone levels worldwide suggests further studies of the long-term effects of exposure to high ozone levels are warranted.

Temporal aspects of air pollutant measures in epidemiologic analysis: a simulation study

Numerous observational studies have assessed the association between ambient air pollution and chronic disease incidence, but there is no uniform approach to create an exposure metric that captures the variability in air pollution through time and determines the most relevant exposure window. The purpose of the present study was to assess ways of modeling exposure to air pollution in relation to incident hypertension. We simulated data on incident hypertension to assess the performance of six air pollution exposure metrics, using characteristics from the Black Women’s Health Study. Each metric made different assumptions about how to incorporate time trends in pollutant data, and the most relevant window of exposure. We use observed values for particulate matter ≤2.5 microns (PM_2.5) for this cohort to create the six exposure metrics and fit Cox proportional hazards models to the simulated data using the six metrics. The optimal exposure metric depends on the underlying association between PM_2.5 and disease, which is unknown. Metrics that incorporate exposure information from multiple years tend to be more robust and suffer from less bias. This study provides insight into factors that influence the metric used to quantifying exposure to PM_2.5 and suggests the need for careful sensitivity analyses.

Toward the development of an in silico human model for indoor environmental design

In modern society where people spend more than 90% of their time in indoor spaces, the indoor air quality (IAQ) created by buildings has the potential of greatly influencing quality of life. Because the time spent by workers/residents in indoor spaces has increased over time, the importance of IAQ issues in terms of public health is also increasing. Additionally, the quality of the indoor thermal environment also has great impact on human comfort and performance; hence, the development of a comprehensive prediction method integrating indoor air quality/thermal environment assessment and human physiological responses, is crucial for creating a healthy, comfortable, and productive indoor environment. Accordingly, the overarching objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive and universal computer simulated person (i.e., in silico human model), integrating computational fluid dynamics (CFD), to be used in indoor environmental design and quality assessment. This paper presents and discusses the development of this computer-simulated person and its application to indoor environmental design.

Air Pollution and Mortality in Seven Million Adults: The Dutch Environmental Longitudinal Study (DUELS)

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with mortality in urban cohort studies. Few studies have investigated this association in large-scale population registries, including non-urban populations.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to evaluate the associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality in the Netherlands based on existing national databases.

METHODS

We used existing Dutch national databases on mortality, individual characteristics, residence history, neighborhood characteristics, and national air pollution maps based on land use regression (LUR) techniques for particulates with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Using these databases, we established a cohort of 7.1 million individuals ≥ 30 years of age. We followed the cohort for 7 years (2004-2011). We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential individual and area-specific confounders.

RESULTS

After adjustment for individual and area-specific confounders, for each 10-μg/m3 increase, PM10 and NO2 were associated with nonaccidental mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.09 and HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.03, respectively], respiratory mortality (HR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.17 and HR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03, respectively), and lung cancer mortality (HR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.30 and HR = 1.10 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11, respectively). Furthermore, PM10 was associated with circulatory disease mortality (HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.08), but NO2 was not (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.01). PM10 associations were robust to adjustment for NO2; NO2 associations remained for nonaccidental mortality and lung cancer mortality after adjustment for PM10.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to PM10 and NO2 was associated with nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality in the Dutch population of ≥ 30 years of age.

Air pollution and mortality: effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a case-only study

Short-term effects of air pollution on mortality have been well documented in the literature worldwide. Less is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to air pollution. We conducted a case-only study in Hong Kong to examine the potential effect modification by personal characteristics and specific causes of death. Individual information of 402,184 deaths of non-external causes and daily mean concentrations of air pollution were collected from 2001 to 2011. For a 10 μg/m(3) increase of pollution concentration, people aged ≥ ∇65 years (compared with younger ages) had a 0.9-1.8% additional increase in mortality related to PM, NO2, and SO2. People dying from cardiorespiratory diseases (compared with other non-external causes) had a 1.6-2.3% additional increase in PM and NO2 related mortality. Other subgroups that were particularly susceptible were females and those economically inactive. Lower socioeconomic status and causes of cardiorespiratory diseases would increase the likelihood of death associated with air pollution.

Application of GIS and modelling in health risk assessment for urban road mobility

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributes to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer and physical injuries. This paper presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Haiphong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and geographic information system approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-referenced data. The study shows that health burdens due to particulate matter in Haiphong include 1,200 extra deaths for the situation in 2007. This figure can double by 2020 as the result of the fast economic development the city pursues. In addition, 51,000 extra hospital admissions and more than 850,000 restricted activity days are expected by 2020.

Respiratory health effects of ambient air pollution: an update

There is new evidence for ambient air pollution (AAP) leading to an increased incidence of respiratory diseases in adults. Research has demonstrated that co-exposures have the potential to dramatically augment the effects of AAP and lower the threshold of effect of a given pollutant. Interactions between genes related to oxidative stress and AAP seem to significantly alter the effect of AAP on an individual and population basis. A better definition of vulnerable populations may bolster local or regional efforts to remediate AAP. Advances in genetic research tools have the potential to identify candidate genes that can guide further research.

Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes.

Effect of air pollution control on life expectancy in the United States: an analysis of 545 U.S. counties for the period from 2000 to 2007

BACKGROUND

In recent years (2000-2007), ambient levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have continued to decline as a result of interventions, but the decline has been at a slower rate than previous years (1980-2000). Whether these more recent and slower declines of PM2.5 levels continue to improve life expectancy and whether they benefit all populations equally is unknown.

METHODS

We assembled a data set for 545 U.S. counties consisting of yearly county-specific average PM2.5, yearly county-specific life expectancy, and several potentially confounding variables measuring socioeconomic status, smoking prevalence, and demographic characteristics for the years 2000 and 2007. We used regression models to estimate the association between reductions in PM2.5 and changes in life expectancy for the period from 2000 to 2007.

RESULTS

A decrease of 10 μg/m in the concentration of PM2.5 was associated with an increase in mean life expectancy of 0.35 years (SD = 0.16 years, P = 0.033). This association was stronger in more urban and densely populated counties.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in PM2.5 were associated with improvements in life expectancy for the period from 2000 to 2007. Air pollution control in the last decade has continued to have a positive impact on public health.

Temperature, Not Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5), is Causally Associated with Short-Term Acute Daily Mortality Rates: Results from One Hundred United States Cities

Exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in air (C) have been suspected of contributing causally to increased acute (e.g., same-day or next-day) human mortality rates (R). We tested this causal hypothesis in 100 United States cities using the publicly available NMMAPS database. Although a significant, approximately linear, statistical C-R association exists in simple statistical models, closer analysis suggests that it is not causal. Surprisingly, conditioning on other variables that have been extensively considered in previous analyses (usually using splines or other smoothers to approximate their effects), such as month of the year and mean daily temperature, suggests that they create strong, nonlinear confounding that explains the statistical association between PM2.5 and mortality rates in this data set. As this finding disagrees with conventional wisdom, we apply several different techniques to examine it. Conditional independence tests for potential causation, non-parametric classification tree analysis, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), and Granger-Sims causality testing, show no evidence that PM2.5 concentrations have any causal impact on increasing mortality rates. This apparent absence of a causal C-R relation, despite their statistical association, has potentially important implications for managing and communicating the uncertain health risks associated with, but not necessarily caused by, PM2.5 exposures.

Residential proximity to major roadway and 10-year all-cause mortality after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

The relationship between residential proximity to roadway and long-term survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown. We investigated the association between distance from residence and major roadway and 10-year all-cause mortality after AMI in the Determinants of Myocardial Infarction Onset Study (Onset Study), hypothesizing that living closer to a major roadway at the time of AMI would be associated with increased risk of mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Onset Study enrolled 3886 individuals hospitalized for AMI in 64 centers across the United States from 1989 to 1996. Institutionalized patients, those providing only post office boxes, and those whose addresses could not be geocoded were excluded, leaving 3547 patients eligible for analysis. Addresses were geocoded, and distance to the nearest major roadway was assigned. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios, with adjustment for personal characteristics (age, sex, race, education, marital status, distance to nearest acute care hospital), clinical characteristics (smoking, body mass index, comorbidities, medications), and neighborhood-level characteristics derived from US Census block group data (household income, education, urbanicity). There were 1071 deaths after 10 years of follow-up. In the fully adjusted model, compared with living >1000 m, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for living ≤100 m were 1.27 (1.01-1.60), for 100 to ≤200 m were 1.19 (0.93-1.60), and for 200 to ≤1000 m were 1.13 (0.99-1.30) (P(trend)=0.016).

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicenter study, living close to a major roadway at the time of AMI was associated with increased risk of all-cause 10-year mortality; this relationship persisted after adjustment for individual and neighborhood-level covariates.

Chronic exposure to fine particles and mortality: an extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities study from 1974 to 2009

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies have reported associations between fine particles (aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm; PM2.5) and mortality. However, concerns have been raised regarding the sensitivity of the results to model specifications, lower exposures, and averaging time.

OBJECTIVE

We addressed these issues using 11 additional years of follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities study, incorporating recent lower exposures.

METHODS

We replicated the previously applied Cox regression, and examined different time lags, the shape of the concentration-response relationship using penalized splines, and changes in the slope of the relation over time. We then conducted Poisson survival analysis with time-varying effects for smoking, sex, and education.

RESULTS

Since 2001, average PM2.5 levels, for all six cities, were < 18 µg/m3. Each increase in PM2.5 (10 µg/m3) was associated with an adjusted increased risk of all-cause mortality (PM2.5 average on previous year) of 14% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7, 22], and with 26% (95% CI: 14, 40) and 37% (95% CI: 7, 75) increases in cardiovascular and lung-cancer mortality (PM2.5 average of three previous years), respectively. The concentration-response relationship was linear down to PM2.5 concentrations of 8 µg/m3. Mortality rate ratios for PM2.5 fluctuated over time, but without clear trends despite a substantial drop in the sulfate fraction. Poisson models produced similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that further public policy efforts that reduce fine particulate matter air pollution are likely to have continuing public health benefits.

Susceptibility to air pollution effects on mortality in Seoul, Korea: a case-crossover analysis of individual-level effect modifiers

Air pollution's mortality effects may differ by subpopulation; however, few studies have investigated this issue in Asia. We investigated susceptibility to air pollutants on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in Seoul, Korea for the period 2000-2007. We applied time-stratified case-crossover analysis, which allows direct modeling of interaction terms, to estimate susceptibility based on sex, age, education, marital status, and occupation. An interquartile range increase in pollution was associated with odds ratios of 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.25-1.62), 2.27 (1.03-3.53), 1.94 (0.80-3.09), and 2.21 (1.00-3.43) for total mortality and 1.95 (0.64-3.27), 4.82 (2.18-7.54), 3.64 (1.46-5.87), and 4.32 (1.77-6.92) for cardiovascular mortality for PM(10), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and carbon monoxide (CO), respectively. Ozone effect estimates were positive, but not statistically significant. Results indicate that some populations are more susceptible than others. For total or cardiovascular mortality, associations were higher for males, those 65-74 years, and those with no education or manual occupation for some pollutants. For example, the odds ratio for SO(2) and cardiovascular mortality was 1.19 (1.03-1.37) times higher for those with manual occupations than professional occupations. Our findings provide evidence that some populations are more susceptible to the effects of air pollution than others, which has implications for public policy and risk assessment for susceptible subpopulations.

Particulate air pollution and socioeconomic position in rural and urban areas of the Northeastern United States

OBJECTIVES

Although differential exposure by socioeconomic position (SEP) to hazardous waste and lead is well demonstrated, there is less evidence for particulate air pollution (PM), which is associated with risk of death and illness. This study determined the relationship of ambient PM and SEP across several spatial scales.

METHODS

Geographic information system-based, spatio-temporal models were used to predict PM in the Northeastern United States. Predicted concentrations were related to census tract SEP and racial composition using generalized additive models.

RESULTS

Lower SEP was associated with small, significant increases in PM. Annual PM(10) decreased between 0.09 and 0.93 micrograms per cubic meter and PM(2.5) between 0.02 and 0.94 micrograms per cubic meter for interquartile range increases in income. Decrements in PM with SEP increased with spatial scale, indicating that between-city spatial gradients were greater than within-city differences. The PM-SEP relation in urban tracts was not substantially modified by racial composition.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower compared with higher SEP populations were exposed to higher ambient PM in the Northeastern United States. Given the small percentage change in annual PM(2.5) and PM(10), SEP was not likely a major source of confounding in epidemiological studies of PM, especially those conducted within a single urban/metropolitan area.

Quantification of health benefits related with reduction of atmospheric PM₁₀ levels: implementation of population mobility approach

This study is focused on the assessment of potential health benefits by meeting the air quality limit values (2008/50/CE) for short-term PM₁₀ exposure. For this purpose, the methodology of the WHO for Health Impact Assessment and APHEIS guidelines for data collection were applied to Porto Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Additionally, an improved methodology using population mobility data is proposed in this work to analyse number of persons exposed. In order to obtain representative background concentrations, an innovative approach to process air quality time series was implemented. The results provide the number of attributable cases prevented annually by reducing PM(10) concentration. An intercomparison of two approaches to process input data for the health risk analysis provides information on sensitivity of the applied methodology. The findings highlight the importance of taking into account spatial variability of the air pollution levels and population mobility in the health impact assessment.

The need for better public health decisions on chemicals released into our environment

Protecting the health of the public-particularly the most vulnerable groups, such as children-requires rethinking current approaches to reducing environmental risks. We review the evolving understanding of the relationship between exposure to chemicals in the environment and disease, as well as the current state of managing those chemicals. We present recommendations to improve current approaches, including changing the burden of proof so that chemicals are not presumed safe in the absence of scientific data. We also propose modernizing approaches to assessing health risks.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and vascular damage in young adults

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has recently been linked to atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. There are, however, very limited data in healthy young people. We examined the association between air pollutants and indicators of vascular damage in a cohort of young adults.

METHODS

We used data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Young Adults study. We estimated exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), black smoke, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and various traffic indicators for participants' 2000 home addresses. Exposure for the year 2000 was estimated by land-use regression models incorporating regional background annual air pollution levels, land-use variables, population densities, and traffic intensities on nearby roads. Outcomes were common carotid artery intima-media thickness (n = 745), aortic pulse wave velocity (n = 524), and augmentation index (n = 729).

RESULTS

Exposure contrasts were substantial for NO2, SO2, and black smoke (5th-95th percentiles = 19.7 to 44.9, 2.5 to 5.2, and 8.6 to 19.4 microg/m3, respectively) and smaller for PM2.5 (16.5 to 19.9 microg/m3). The variability of carotid artery intima-media thickness was less than for pulse wave velocity and especially augmentation index (5-95th percentiles = 0.42 to 0.58 mm, 4.9 to 7.4 m/s and -12.3% to 27.3%, respectively). No associations were found between any of the pollutants or traffic indicators and carotid artery intima-media thickness, although PM2.5 effect estimates were in line with previous studies. We observed a 4.1% (95% confidence interval = 0.1% to 8.0%) increase in pulse wave velocity and a 37.6% (2.2% to 72.9%) increase in augmentation index associated with a 25 microg/m3 increase in NO2, and a 5.3% (0.1% to 10.4%) increase in pulse wave velocity with a 5 microg/m3 increase in SO2. PM2.5 and black smoke were not associated with either of these 2 outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Air pollution may accelerate arterial-wall stiffening in young adults. Small outcome variability and lack of residential mobility data may have limited the power to detect an effect on intima-media thickness.

Differences in heart rate variability associated with long-term exposure to NO2

BACKGROUND

Heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of cardiac autonomic tone, has been associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Short-term studies have shown that subjects exposed to higher traffic-associated air pollutant levels have lower HRV.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to investigate the effect of long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide on HRV in the Swiss cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA).

METHODS

We recorded 24-hr electrocardiograms in randomly selected SAPALDIA participants >or= 50 years of age. Other examinations included an interview investigating health status and measurements of blood pressure, body height, and weight. Annual exposure to NO2 at the address of residence was predicted by hybrid models (i.e., a combination of dispersion predictions, land-use, and meteorologic parameters). We estimated the association between NO2 and HRV in multivariable linear regression models. Complete data for analyses were available for 1,408 subjects.

RESULTS

For women, but not for men, each 10-microg/m3 increment in 1-year averaged NO2 level was associated with a decrement of 3% (95% CI, -4 to -1) for the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals (SDNN), -6% (95% CI, -11 to -1) for nighttime low frequency (LF), and -5% (95% CI, -9 to 0) for nighttime LF/high-frequency (HF) ratio. We saw no significant effect for 24-hr total power (TP), HF, LF, or LF/HF or for nighttime SDNN, TP, or HF. In subjects with self-reported cardiovascular problems, SDNN decreased by 4% (95% CI, -8 to -1) per 10-microg/m3 increase in NO2.

CONCLUSIONS

There is some evidence that long-term exposure to NO2 is associated with cardiac autonomic dysfunction in elderly women and in subjects with cardiovascular disease.

Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study

BACKGROUND

Various factors can modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and most of these studies were conducted in developed countries.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of season, sex, age, and education on the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter < 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone] and daily mortality in Shanghai, China, using 4 years of daily data (2001-2004).

METHODS

Using a natural spline model to analyze the data, we examined effects of air pollution for the warm season (April-September) and cool season (October-March) separately. For total mortality, we examined the association stratified by sex and age. Stratified analysis by educational attainment was conducted for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.

RESULTS

Outdoor air pollution was associated with mortality from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. An increase of 10 mug/m(3) in a 2-day average concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), and O(3) corresponds to increases in all-cause mortality of 0.25% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.37), 0.95% (95% CI, 0.62-1.28), 0.97% (95% CI, 0.66-1.27), and 0.31% (95% CI, 0.04-0.58), respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than in the warm season, and females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution. Effects of air pollution were generally greater in residents with low educational attainment (illiterate or primary school) compared with those with high educational attainment (middle school or above).

CONCLUSIONS

Season, sex, age, and education may modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution in Shanghai. These findings provide new information about the effects of modifiers on the relationship between daily mortality and air pollution in developing countries and may have implications for local environmental and social policies.

The effects of air pollution on mortality in socially deprived urban areas in Hong Kong, China

BACKGROUND

Poverty is a major determinant of population health, but little is known about its role in modifying air pollution effects.

OBJECTIVES

We set out to examine whether people residing in socially deprived communities are at higher mortality risk from ambient air pollution.

METHODS

This study included 209 tertiary planning units (TPUs), the smallest units for town planning in the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong, China. The socioeconomic status of each TPU was measured by a social deprivation index (SDI) derived from the proportions of the population with a) unemployment, b) monthly household income < US$250, c) no schooling at all, d) one-person household, e) never-married status, and f ) subtenancy, from the 2001 Population Census. TPUs were classified into three levels of SDI: low, middle, and high. We performed time-series analysis with Poisson regression to examine the association between changes in daily concentrations of ambient air pollution and daily number of deaths in each SDI group for the period from January 1996 to December 2002. We evaluated the differences in pollution effects between different SDI groups using a case-only approach with logistic regression.

RESULTS

We found significant associations of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 mum, and ozone with all nonaccidental and cardiovascular mortality in areas of middle or high SDI (p < 0.05). Health outcomes, measured as all nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, in people residing in high SDI areas were more strongly associated with SO(2) and NO(2) compared with those in middle or low SDI areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation increases mortality risks associated with air pollution.

Fine particulate matter and mortality: a comparison of the six cities and American Cancer Society cohorts with a medicare cohort

BACKGROUND

The American Cancer Society study and the Harvard Six Cities study are 2 landmark cohort studies for estimating the chronic effects of fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) on mortality. Using Medicare data, we assessed the association of PM2.5 with mortality for the same locations included in these studies.

METHODS

We estimated the chronic effects of PM2.5 on mortality for the period 2000-2002 using mortality data for cohorts of Medicare participants and average PM2.5 levels from monitors in the same counties included in the 2 studies. We estimated mortality risk associated with air pollution adjusting for individual-level (age and sex) and area-level covariates (education, income level, poverty, and employment). We controlled for potential confounding by cigarette smoking by including standardized mortality ratios for lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RESULTS

Using the Medicare data, we estimated that a 10 microg/m increase in the yearly average PM2.5 concentration is associated with 10.9% (95% confidence interval = 9.0-12.8) and with 20.8% (14.8-27.1) increases in all-cause mortality for the American Cancer Society and Harvard Six Cities study counties, respectively. The estimates are somewhat higher than those reported by the original investigators.

CONCLUSION

Although Medicare data lack information on some potential confounding factors, we estimated risks similar to those in the previously published reports, which incorporated more extensive information on individual-level confounders. We propose that the Medicare files can be used to construct on-going cohorts for tracking the risk of air pollution over time.

Socioeconomic disparities in air pollution-associated mortality

This study aimed to determine whether individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES) were more susceptible to the acute effects of ambient air pollution than those with higher SES. We included 24,357 Hong Kong Chinese aged 30 or above who died of natural causes in 1998. Information on individual socioeconomic characteristics was obtained by interviewing proxy informants with a standardized questionnaire in all four death registries. Individual SES was indicated by three measures: type of housing, occupational group and education attainment. Poisson regression was performed to assess the short-term effects of ambient air pollution measured by PM(10), NO(2), SO(2) and O(3) on mortality for each SES group. The differences in the effects between SES groups were estimated by the interaction between air pollution and SES. We found that PM(10) and NO(2) were associated with greater risk of mortality on people living in public rental housing than in private housing. The effects of all four pollutants were significantly greater in blue-collar workers than the never-employed and white-collar groups (p<0.05). However, we found no compelling evidence of effect modification by education attainment. Our results provide new evidence on the role of individual's SES as effect modifiers of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. The reduction of risks associated with air pollution for socially disadvantaged populations should be a high priority in public health and environmental policies.

Contribution of smoking and air pollution exposure in urban areas to social differences in respiratory health

Background

Socio-economic status, smoking, and exposure to increased levels of environmental air pollution are associated with adverse effects on respiratory health. We assessed the contribution of occupational exposures, smoking and outdoor air pollution as competing factors for the association between socio-economic status and respiratory health indicators in a cohort of women from the Ruhr area aged 55 at the time of investigation between 1985 and 1990.

Methods

Data of 1251 women with spirometry and complete questionnaire information about respiratory diseases, smoking and potential confounders were used in the analyses. Exposure to large-scale air pollution was assessed with data from monitoring stations. Exposure to small-scale air pollution was assessed as traffic-related exposure by distance to the nearest major road. Socio-economic status was defined by educational level. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the contribution of occupational exposures, smoking and outdoor air pollution to social differences in respiratory health.

Results

Women with less than 10 years of school education in comparison to more than 10 years of school education were more often occupationally exposed (16.4% vs. 10.1%), smoked more often (20.3% vs. 13.9%), and lived more often close to major roads (26.0% vs. 22.9%). Long-term exposure to increased levels of PM₁₀ was significantly associated with lower school education. Women with low school education were more likely to suffer from respiratory symptoms and had reduced lung function. In the multivariate analysis the associations between education and respiratory health attenuated after adjusting for occupational exposure, smoking and outdoor air pollution. The crude odds ratio for the association between the lung function indicator FEV₁ less than 80% of predicted value and educational level (<10 years vs. >10 years of school education) was 1.83 (95% CI: 1.22–2.74). This changed to 1.56 (95% CI: 1.03–2.37) after adjusting for occupational exposure, smoking and outdoor air pollution.

Conclusion

We found an association between socio-economic status and respiratory health. This can partly be explained by living conditions indicated by occupational exposure, smoking behaviour and ambient air pollution. A relevant part of the social differences in respiratory health, however, remained unexplained.

Air pollution and public health: a guidance document for risk managers

This guidance document is a reference for air quality policymakers and managers providing state-of-the-art, evidence-based information on key determinants of air quality management decisions. The document reflects the findings of five annual meetings of the NERAM (Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management) International Colloquium Series on Air Quality Management (2001-2006), as well as the results of supporting international research. The topics covered in the guidance document reflect critical science and policy aspects of air quality risk management including i) health effects, ii) air quality emissions, measurement and modeling, iii) air quality management interventions, and iv) clean air policy challenges and opportunities.

Diesel exhaust particles induce matrix metalloprotease-1 in human lung epithelial cells via a NADP(H) oxidase/NOX4 redox-dependent mechanism

Chronic exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with lung function impairment. To determine the molecular mechanism(s) of this phenomenon, we investigated, in an alveolar human epithelial cell line (A549), whether diesel exhaust particles (DEPs), a main component of particulate air pollution, modulates the expression and activity of the matrix metalloprotease (MMP)-1, a collagenase involved in alveolar wall degradation. Interaction of DEPs with cigarette smoke, which also produces structural and functional lung alterations, was also investigated. A noncytotoxic concentration of DEPs induced an increase in MMP-1 mRNA and protein expression and activity in A549 cells without modifying the expression of the MMP inhibitors TIMP-1 and -2. This effect was not potentiated when cells were coexposed to noncytotoxic concentrations of cigarette smoke condensate. DEP-induced MMP-1 was associated with increased ERK 1/2 phosphorylation and upregulation of expression and activity of the NADPH oxidase analog NOX4. Cell transfection with a NOX4 small interfering RNA prevented these phenomena, showing the critical role of a NOX4 ERK 1/2 pathway in DEP-induced MMP-1 expression and activity. Similar results to those observed in A549 cells were obtained in another human lung epithelial cell line, NCI-H292. Furthermore, experiments in mice intratracheally instilled with DEPs confirmed the in vitro findings, showing the induction of NOX4 and MMP-1 protein expression in alveolar epithelial cells. We conclude that alveolar alterations secondary to MMP-1 induction could explain lung function impairment associated with exposure to particulate pollution.

Outdoor air pollution: particulate matter health effects

Numerous investigations studying multiple populations across a variety of environmental settings have demonstrated a strong association between ambient air particulate matter and cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. In most studies, the effect size of ambient air particulate pollution on health outcomes is small. However, the exposed population worldwide is very large. Accordingly, particulate air pollution appears to be an important public health hazard that makes an important contribution to the total burden of disease and death in populations across the world. Much of the evidence linking ambient air particulates with adverse health effects is derived from population-based, observational research with potential unidentified confounding exposures, precluding definitive assessments about causation and providing limited mechanistic insights. A growing body of research suggests particulate-associated adverse health effects result from the induction of proinflammatory responses in the lower respiratory tract. Ambient air particulates may increase lung cancer risk.

Does respiratory health contribute to the effects of long-term air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality?

Background

There is growing epidemiological evidence that short-term and long-term exposure to high levels of air pollution may increase cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In addition, epidemiological studies have shown an association between air pollution exposure and respiratory health. To what extent the association between cardiovascular mortality and air pollution is driven by the impact of air pollution on respiratory health is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate whether respiratory health at baseline contributes to the effects of long-term exposure to high levels of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in a cohort of elderly women.

Method

We analyzed data from 4750 women, aged 55 at the baseline investigation in the years 1985–1994. 2593 of these women had their lung function tested by spirometry. Respiratory diseases and symptoms were asked by questionnaire. Ambient air pollution exposure was assessed by the concentrations of NO₂ and total suspended particles at fixed monitoring sites and by the distance of residency to a major road. A mortality follow-up of these women was conducted between 2001 and 2003. For the statistical analysis, Cox' regression was used.

Results

Women with impaired lung function or pre-existing respiratory diseases had a higher risk of dying from cardiovascular causes. The impact of impaired lung function declined over time. The risk ratio (RR) of women with forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) of less than 80% predicted to die from cardiovascular causes was RR = 3.79 (95%CI: 1.64–8.74) at 5 years survival time and RR = 1.35 (95%CI: 0.66–2.77) at 12 years. The association between air pollution levels and cardiovascular death rate was strong and statistically significant. However, this association did only change marginally when including indicators of respiratory health into the regression analysis. Furthermore, no interaction between air pollution and respiratory health on cardiovascular mortality indicating a higher risk of those with impaired respiratory health could be detected.

Conclusion

Respiratory health is a predictor for cardiovascular mortality. In women followed about 15 years after the baseline investigation at age 55 years long-term air pollution exposure and impaired respiratory health were independently associated with increased cardiovascular mortality.

The mutagenic hazards of environmental PM2.5 in Turin

Owing to the large number of natural and anthropogenic sources, particulate matter (PM) may present several physical and chemical patterns in different areas. The finer PM2.5 fraction, which is now widely but not routinely measured in Europe, is considered to be the alveolar fraction of the ambient particles. Annual and winter mean concentrations of PM2.5 substantially vary in Europe, with higher concentrations in the South. The aims of this work were to (a) measure the PM2.5 levels in Turin over a long period, (b) evaluate mutagenic activities of organic extracts containing this collected complex mixture using the Ames test and (c) determine the level of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in order to identify important mutagens in ambient air. Sampling was carried out from November 2001 to December 2004. The monthly mean of PM2.5 was 48.76+/-24.12 microg/m3. From the beginning to the end of the sample period there was a decrease in gravimetric levels, with annual means of 54.10+/-29.77 microg/m3 in 2002; 42.48+/-15.73 microg/m3 in 2003 and 45.89+/-24.92 microg/m3 in 2004. Samples were tested for mutagenicity using Salmonella typhimurium strains TA98 and TA100, with and without S9 mix metabolic activation. A positive genotoxic response was observed for TA98, with and without metabolic activation. The measured PAHs monthly mean level was 8.24+/-6.30 ng/m3, with values ranging from 0.20 to 21.38 ng/m3 Seasonal variation of gravimetric, mutagenic and PAH values was significant. The Salmonella assay results statistically correlated to PM2.5 and PAHs levels, but sometimes the mutagenic potencies were rather different despite an equal concentration of pollutant. The results confirm the usefulness of this biological approach to detect genotoxic properties of sampled PM2.5 and they show the variability of the mutagenic properties of the airborne mixture over time.

Reanalysis of the Harvard Six Cities Study, part I: validation and replication

Because the results of the Harvard Six Cities Study played a critical role in the establishment of the current U.S. ambient air quality objective for fine particles (PM(2.5)), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, industry, and nongovernmental organizations called for an independent reanalysis of this study to validate the original findings reported by Dockery and colleagues in the New England Journal of Medicine (vol. 329, pp. 1753-1759) in 1993. Validation of the original findings was accomplished by a detailed statistical audit and replication of original results. With the exception of occupational exposure to dust (14 discrepancies of 249 questionnaires located for evaluation) and fumes (15/249), date of death (2/250), and cause of death (2/250), the audit identified no discrepancies between the original questionnaires and death certificates in the audit sample and the analytic file used by the original investigators. The data quality audit identified a computer programming problem that had resulted in early censorship in 5 of the 6 cities, which resulted in the loss of approximately 1% of the reported person-years of follow-up; the reanalysis team updated the Six Cities cohort to include the missing person-years of observation, resulting in the addition of 928 person-years of observation and 14 deaths. The reanalysis team was able to reproduce virtually all of the original numerical results, including the 26% increase in all-cause mortality in the most polluted city (Stubenville, OH) as compared to the least polluted city (Portage, WI). The audit and validation of the Harvard Six Cities Study conducted by the reanalysis team generally confirmed the quality of the data and the numerical results reported by the original investigators. The discrepancies noted during the audit were not of epidemiologic importance, and did not substantively alter the original risk estimates associated with particulate air pollution, nor the main conclusions reached by the original investigators.