Does Implementation of Biomathematical Models Mitigate Fatigue and Fatigue-related Risks in Emergency Medical Services Operations? A Systematic Review

Biomathematical modeling of fatigue due to sleep inertia

Biomathematical models of fatigue capture the physiology of sleep/wake regulation and circadian rhythmicity to predict changes in neurobehavioral functioning over time. We used a biomathematical model of fatigue linked to the adenosinergic neuromodulator/receptor system in the brain as a framework to predict sleep inertia, that is, the transient neurobehavioral impairment experienced immediately after awakening. Based on evidence of an adenosinergic basis for sleep inertia, we expanded the biomathematical model with novel differential equations to predict the propensity for sleep inertia during sleep and its manifestation after awakening. Using datasets from large laboratory studies of sleep loss and circadian misalignment, we calibrated the model by fitting just two new parameters and then validated the model's predictions against independent data. The expanded model was found to predict the magnitude and time course of sleep inertia with generally high accuracy. Analysis of the model's dynamics revealed a bifurcation in the predicted manifestation of sleep inertia in sustained sleep restriction paradigms, which reflects the observed escalation of the magnitude of sleep inertia in scenarios with sleep restriction to less than ∼ 4 h per day. Another emergent property of the model involves a rapid increase in the predicted propensity for sleep inertia in the early part of sleep followed by a gradual decline in the later part of the sleep period, which matches what would be expected based on the adenosinergic regulation of non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep and its known influence on sleep inertia. These dynamic behaviors provide confidence in the validity of our approach and underscore the predictive potential of the model. The expanded model provides a useful tool for predicting sleep inertia and managing impairment in 24/7 settings where people may need to perform critical tasks immediately after awakening, such as on-demand operations in safety and security, emergency response, and health care.

Predicting neurobehavioral performance of resident physicians in a Randomized Order Safety Trial Evaluating Resident-Physician Schedules (ROSTERS)

OBJECTIVES

Mathematical models of human neurobehavioral performance that include the effects of acute and chronic sleep restriction can be key tools in assessment and comparison of work schedules, allowing quantitative predictions of performance when empirical assessment is impractical.

METHODS

Using such a model, we tested the hypothesis that resident physicians working an extended duration work roster, including 24-28 hours of continuous duty and up to 88 hours per week averaged over 4weeks, would have worse predicted performance than resident physicians working a rapidly cycling work roster intervention designed to reduce the duration of extended shifts. The performance metric used was attentional failures (ie, Psychomotor Vigilance Task lapses). Model input was 169 actual work and sleep schedules. Outcomes were predicted hours per week during work hours spent at moderate (equivalent to 16-20 hours of continuous wakefulness) or high (equivalent to ≥20 hours of continuous wakefulness) performance impairment.

RESULTS

The model predicted that resident physicians working an extended duration work roster would spend significantly more time at moderate impairment (p = .02, effect size=0.2) than those working a rapidly cycling work roster; this difference was most pronounced during the circadian night (p < .001). On both schedules, performance was predicted to decline from weeks 1 + 2 to weeks 3 + 4 (p < .001), but the rate of decline was significantly greater on extended duration work roster (p < .01). Predicted performance impairment was inversely related to prior sleep duration (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate the utility of a mathematical model to evaluate the predicted performance profile of schedules for resident physicians and others who experience chronic sleep restriction and circadian misalignment.

Looking back to inform the future: a review of published paramedicine research

OBJECTIVE

Paramedicine has evolved in ways that may outpace the science informing these changes. Examining the scholarly pursuits of paramedicine may provide insights into the historical academic focus, which may inform future endeavors and evolution of paramedicine. The objective of this study was to explore the existing discourse in paramedicine research to reflect on the academic pursuits of this community.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science from January, 2006 to April, 2019. We further refined the yield using a ranking formula that prioritized journals most relevant to paramedicine, then sampled randomly in two-year clusters for full text review. We extracted literature type, study topic and context, then used elements of qualitative content, thematic, and discourse analysis to further describe the sample.

RESULTS

The initial search yielded 99,124 citations, leaving 54,638 after removing duplicates and 7084 relevant articles from nine journals after ranking. Subsequently, 2058 articles were included for topic categorization, and 241 papers were included for full text analysis after random sampling. Overall, this literature reveals: 1) a relatively narrow topic focus, given the majority of research has concentrated on general operational activities and specific clinical conditions and interventions (e.g., resuscitation, airway management, etc.); 2) a limited methodological (and possibly philosophical) focus, given that most were observational studies (e.g., cohort, case control, and case series) or editorial/commentary; 3) a variety of observed trajectories of academic attention, indicating where the evolution of paramedicine is evident, areas where scope of practice is uncertain, and areas that aim to improve skills historically considered core to paramedic clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Included articles suggest a relatively narrow topic focus, a limited methodological focus, and observed trajectories of academic attention indicating where research pursuits and priorities are shifting. We have highlighted that the academic focus may require an alignment with aspirational and direction setting documents aimed at developing paramedicine. This review may be a snapshot of scholarly activity that reflects a young medically directed profession and systems focusing on a few high acuity conditions, with aspirations of professional autonomy contributing to the health and social well-being of communities.

Economic Aspects of Delivering Primary Care Services: An Evidence Synthesis to Inform Policy and Research Priorities

Policy Points The 2018 Declaration of Astana reemphasized the importance of primary health care and its role in achieving universal health coverage. While there is a large amount of literature on the economic aspects of delivering primary care services, there is a need for more comprehensive overviews of this evidence. In this article, we offer such an overview. Evidence suggests that there are several strategies involving coverage, financing, service delivery, and governance arrangements which can, if implemented, have positive economic impacts on the delivery of primary care services. These include arrangements such as worker task-shifting and telemedicine. The implementation of any such arrangements, based on positive economic evidence, should carefully account for potential impacts on overall health care access and quality. There are many opportunities for further research, with notable gaps in evidence on the impacts of increasing primary care funding or the overall supply of primary care services.

CONTEXT

The 2018 Declaration of Astana reemphasized the importance of primary health care and its role in achieving universal health coverage. To strengthen primary health care, policymakers need guidance on how to allocate resources in a manner that maximizes its economic benefits.

METHODS

We collated and synthesized published systematic reviews of evidence on the economic aspects of different models of delivering primary care services. Building on previous efforts, we adapted existing taxonomies of primary care components to classify our results according to four categories: coverage, financing, service delivery, and governance.

FINDINGS

We identified and classified 109 reviews that met our inclusion criteria according to our taxonomy of primary care components: coverage, financing, service delivery, and governance arrangements. A significant body of evidence suggests that several specific primary care arrangements, such as health workers' task shifting and telemedicine, can have positive economic impacts (such as lower overall health care costs). Notably absent were reviews on the impact of increasing primary care funding or the overall supply of primary care services.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a great opportunity for further research to systematically examine the broader economic impacts of investing in primary care services. Despite progress over the last decade, significant evidence gaps on the economic implications of different models of primary care services remain, which could help inform the basis of future research efforts.

Guiding principles for determining work shift duration and addressing the effects of work shift duration on performance, safety, and health: guidance from the American Academy of Sleep Medicine and the Sleep Research Society

CITATION

Risks associated with fatigue that accumulates during work shifts have historically been managed through working time arrangements that specify fixed maximum durations of work shifts and minimum durations of time off. By themselves, such arrangements are not sufficient to curb risks to performance, safety, and health caused by misalignment between work schedules and the biological regulation of waking alertness and sleep. Science-based approaches for determining shift duration and mitigating associated risks, while addressing operational needs, require: (1) a recognition of the factors contributing to fatigue and fatigue-related risks; (2) an understanding of evidence-based countermeasures that may reduce fatigue and/or fatigue-related risks; and (3) an informed approach to selecting workplace-specific strategies for managing work hours. We propose a series of guiding principles to assist stakeholders with designing a shift duration decision-making process that effectively balances the need to meet operational demands with the need to manage fatigue-related risks.

Guiding principles for determining work shift duration and addressing the effects of work shift duration on performance, safety, and health: guidance from the American Academy of Sleep Medicine and the Sleep Research Society

Risks associated with fatigue that accumulates during work shifts have historically been managed through working time arrangements that specify fixed maximum durations of work shifts and minimum durations of time off. By themselves, such arrangements are not sufficient to curb risks to performance, safety, and health caused by misalignment between work schedules and the biological regulation of waking alertness and sleep. Science-based approaches for determining shift duration and mitigating associated risks, while addressing operational needs, require: (1) a recognition of the factors contributing to fatigue and fatigue-related risks; (2) an understanding of evidence-based countermeasures that may reduce fatigue and/or fatigue-related risks; and (3) an informed approach to selecting workplace-specific strategies for managing work hours. We propose a series of guiding principles to assist stakeholders with designing a shift duration decision-making process that effectively balances the need to meet operational demands with the need to manage fatigue-related risks.

The Sleep of Shift Workers in a Remote Mining Operation: Methodology for a Randomized Control Trial to Determine Evidence-Based Interventions

Shiftwork may adversely impact an individual’s sleep-wake patterns and result in sleep loss (<6 h. following night shift), due to the circadian misalignment and the design of rosters and shifts. Within a mining operation, this sleep loss may have significant consequences due to fatigue, including an increased risk of accidents and chronic health conditions. This study aims to (i) determine the efficacy of an intervention that comprises a sleep education program and biofeedback through a smartphone app on sleep quality, quantity, and alertness (ii) determine the prevalence of risk for a potential sleep disorder, and (iii) quantify and describe the sleep habits and behaviors of shift workers in a remote mining operation. This study consists of a randomized controlled trial whereby eighty-eight shift workers within a remote mining operation are randomized to a control group or one of three different treatment groups that are: (i) a sleep education program, (ii) biofeedback on sleep through a smartphone app, or (iii) a sleep education program and biofeedback on sleep through a smartphone app. This study utilizes wrist-activity monitors, biomathematical modeling, and a survey instrument to obtain data on sleep quantity, quality, and alertness. A variety of statistical methods will determine the prevalence of risk for a potential sleep disorder and associations with body mass index, alcohol, and caffeine consumption. A generalized linear mixed model will examine the dependent sleep variables assessed at baseline and post-intervention for the control group and intervention groups, as well as within and between groups to determine changes. The findings from this study will contribute to the current understanding of sleep and alertness behaviors, and sleep problems and disorders amongst shift workers. Importantly, the results may inform fatigue policy and practice on interventions to manage fatigue risk within the mining industry. This study protocol may have a broader application in other shiftwork industries, including oil and gas, aviation, rail, and healthcare.

Generalizability of a biomathematical model of fatigue's sleep predictions

Introduction: Biomathematical models of fatigue (BMMF) predict fatigue during a work-rest schedule on the basis of sleep-wake histories. In the absence of actual sleep-wake histories, sleep-wake histories are predicted directly from work-rest schedules. The predicted sleep-wake histories are then used to predict fatigue. It remains to be determined whether workers organize their sleep similarly across operations and thus whether sleep predictions generalize.Methods: Officers (n = 173) enrolled in the Buffalo Cardio-Metabolic Occupational Police Stress study were studied. Officers' sleep-wake behaviors were measured using wrist-actigraphy and predicted using a BMMF (FAID Quantum) parameterized in aviation and rail. Sleepiness (i.e. Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) ratings) was predicted using actual and predicted sleep-wake data. Data were analyzed using sensitivity analyses.Results: During officers' 16.0 ± 1.9 days of study participation, they worked 8.6 ± 3.1 shifts and primarily worked day shifts and afternoon shifts. Across shifts, 7.0 h ± 1.9 h of actual sleep were obtained in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.7 ± 1.3. Across shifts, 7.2 h ± 1.1 h of sleep were predicted in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.5 ± 1.2. The minute-by-minute predicted and actual sleep-wake data demonstrated high sensitivity (80.4%). However, sleep was observed at all hours-of-the-day, but sleep was rarely predicted during the daytime hours.Discussion: The sleep-wake behaviors predicted by a BMMF parameterized in aviation and rail demonstrated high sensitivity with police officers' actual sleep-wake behaviors. Additional night shift data are needed to conclude whether BMMF sleep predictions generalize across operations.