HIV prevention trial design in an era of effective pre-exposure prophylaxis

Perspectives on Design Approaches for HIV Prevention Efficacy Trials

The challenge of designing future HIV prevention efficacy trials in a rapidly evolving HIV prevention landscape was explored through a series of virtual stakeholder's engagement meetings convened online between October 2020 and April 2021. A broad array of stakeholders from the HIV prevention research community reviewed current trial designs and lessons learned, explored issues specific to unique product classes, and concluded with specialist-focused examinations of statistical design concepts and the importance of community engagement in research. The aim was to reflect on current approaches and evaluate new trial design approaches for evaluating efficacy of a candidate prevention strategy in the context of an active-controlled trial, which does not include a placebo arm. In this report, we provide a summary of the discussion points that included gaps in understanding and logical next steps in the prevention research pathway. The technical challenges involved in the statistical design approaches are described in a companion article.

Estimating counterfactual placebo HIV incidence in HIV prevention trials without placebo arms based on markers of HIV exposure

INTRODUCTION

Developing alternative approaches to evaluating absolute efficacy of new HIV prevention interventions is a priority, as active-controlled designs, whereby individuals without HIV are randomized to the experimental intervention or an active control known to be effective, are increasing. With this design, however, the efficacy of the experimental intervention to prevent HIV acquisition relative to placebo cannot be evaluated directly.

METHODS

One proposed approach to estimate absolute prevention efficacy is to use an HIV exposure marker, such as incident rectal gonorrhea, to infer counterfactual placebo HIV incidence. We formalize a statistical framework for this approach, specify working regression and likelihood-based estimation approaches, lay out three assumptions under which valid inference can be achieved, evaluate finite-sample performance, and illustrate the approach using a recent active-controlled HIV prevention trial.

RESULTS

We find that in finite samples and under correctly specified assumptions accurate and precise estimates of counterfactual placebo incidence and prevention efficacy are produced. Based on data from the DISCOVER trial in men and transgender women who have sex with men, and assuming correctly specified assumptions, the estimated prevention efficacy for tenofovir alafenamide plus emtricitabine is 98.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.4%-99.4%) using the working model approach and 98.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.4%-99.7%) using the likelihood-based approach.

CONCLUSION

Careful assessment of the underlying assumptions, study of their violation, evaluation of the approach in trials with placebo arms, and advancement of improved exposure markers are needed before the HIV exposure marker approach can be relied upon in practice.

Estimating HIV Incident Diagnoses Among Men Who Have Sex With Men Eligible for Pre-exposure Prophylaxis but Not Taking It: Protocol and Feasibility Assessment of Data Sources and Methods

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence estimates are published each year for all Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) counties, but they are not stratified by the demographic variables highly associated with risk of infection. Regularly updated estimates of HIV incident diagnoses available at local levels are required to monitor the epidemic in the United States over time and could contribute to background incidence rate estimates for alternative clinical trial designs for new HIV prevention products.

OBJECTIVE

We describe methods using existing, robust data sources within areas in the United States to reliably estimate longitudinal HIV incident diagnoses stratified by race and age categories among men who have sex with other men (MSM) eligible for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) but not taking it.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of existing data sources to develop new estimates of incident HIV diagnoses in MSM. We reviewed past methods used to estimate incident diagnoses and explored opportunities to improve these estimates. We will use existing surveillance data sources and population sizes of HIV PrEP-eligible MSM estimated from population-based data sources (eg, US Census data and pharmaceutical prescription databases) to develop metropolitan statistical area-level estimates of new HIV diagnoses among PrEP-eligible MSM. Required parameters are number of new diagnoses among MSM, estimates of MSM with an indication for PrEP, and prevalent PrEP use including median duration of use; these parameters will be stratified by jurisdiction and age group or race or ethnicity. Preliminary outputs will be available in 2023, and updated estimates will be produced annually thereafter.

RESULTS

Data to parameterize new HIV diagnoses among PrEP-eligible MSM are available with varying levels of public availability and timeliness. In early 2023, the most recent available data on new HIV diagnoses were from the 2020 HIV surveillance report, which reports 30,689 new HIV infections in 2020, and 24,724 of them occurred in an MSA with a population of ≥500,000. Updated estimates for PrEP coverage based on commercial pharmacy claims data through February 2023 will be generated. The rate of new HIV diagnoses among MSM can be estimated from new diagnoses within each demographic group (numerator) and the total person-time at risk of diagnosis for each group (denominator) by metropolitan statistical area and year. To estimate time at risk, the person-time of individuals on PrEP or person-time after incident HIV infection but before diagnosis should be removed from stratified population size estimates of the total number of person-years with indications for PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

Reliable, serial, cross-sectional estimates for rates of new HIV diagnoses for MSM with PrEP indications can serve as benchmark community estimates of failures of HIV prevention and opportunities to improve services and will support public health epidemic monitoring and alternative clinical trial designs.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/42267.

Facilitating Next-Generation Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Clinical Trials Using HIV Recent Infection Assays: A Consensus Statement from the Forum HIV Prevention Trial Design Project

Standard-of-care HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious, but uptake of and persistence on a daily oral pill is low in many settings. Evaluation of alternate PrEP products will require innovation to avoid the unpractically large sample sizes in noninferiority trials. We propose estimating HIV incidence in people not on PrEP as an external counterfactual to which on-PrEP incidence in trial subjects can be compared. HIV recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), such as the limiting antigen avidity assay plus viral load used on specimens from untreated HIV positive people identified during screening, is one possible approach. Its feasibility is partly dependent on the sample size needed to ensure adequate power, which is impacted by RITA performance, the number of recent infections identified, the expected efficacy of the intervention, and other factors. Screening sample sizes to support detection of an 80% reduction in incidence for 3 key populations are more modest, and comparable to the number of participants in recent phase III PrEP trials. Sample sizes would be significantly larger in populations with lower incidence, where the false recency rate is higher or if PrEP efficacy is expected to be lower. Our proposed counterfactual approach appears to be feasible, offers high statistical power, and is nearly contemporaneous with the on-PrEP population. It will be important to monitor the performance of this approach during new product development for HIV prevention. If successful, it could be a model for preventive HIV vaccines and prevention of other infectious diseases.

Association between rectal gonorrhoea and HIV incidence in men who have sex with men: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Incidence of rectal gonorrhoea (GC) has been hypothesised as a correlate of HIV exposure in prevention trials of men who have sex with men (MSM). High rectal GC incidence in MSM trials of new biomedical prevention drugs may provide supportive evidence for ongoing HIV risk. Empirical evidence of correlation between rectal GC and HIV incidence is needed to assess whether high rectal GC rates reliably correlate with high risk of HIV.

METHODS

Rectal GC and HIV are routinely tested in sexual health clinics (SHCs) throughout England. Through routine surveillance data collected at visits to SHCs, we assessed HIV incidence and new rectal GC diagnoses in repeat visits by HIV-negative MSM between 2011 and 2018, predating widespread roll-out of pre-exposure prophylaxis. Meta-analysis regression assessed population-level association between HIV and rectal GC incidence over time.

FINDINGS

Between 2011 and 2018, HIV and rectal GC incidence was assessed in 541 056 HIV-negative MSM attending SHCs in England. HIV incidence among MSM attending SHCs fell from 1.26/100 person-years (PYs) in 2011 to 0.28/100 PYs in 2018. Rectal GC rates increased from 3.5/100 PYs to 11.1/100 PYs over the same period. The rate of HIV incidence decreased by 22.3% for each percent increase in rectal GC (95% CI -30.8 to -14.7, p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Among the population of MSM attending SHCs in England, rectal GC rates increased substantially while HIV incidence rates decreased between 2011 and 2018. HIV incidence likely decreased through expanded HIV testing, prompt antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and increased viral suppression in persons living with HIV, interventions that did not decrease rectal GC. Rectal GC may not be an ideal proxy for HIV incidence in trials, as HIV exposure risk is complex and context dependent, given effective HIV prevention interventions in MSM.

INTRODUCTION

Disseminated Effects in Agent-Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Preexposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection may benefit not only the person who uses it but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2015 to 2017. Model components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or the control group; then, within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to receive or not receive PrEP. We calculated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and report corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% coverage in the intervention components to 90% coverage. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated, with an average of 1,551 components identified. When comparing agents randomized to no PrEP in 70% coverage components with control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (risk ratio = 0.85, 95% simulation interval: 0.65, 1.05). Persons not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful for evaluating possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks.

Use of propensity score matching to create counterfactual group to assess potential HIV prevention interventions

The design of HIV prevention trials in the context of effective HIV preventive methods is a challenge. Alternate designs, including using non-randomised 'observational control arms' have been proposed. We used HIV simulated vaccine efficacy trials (SiVETs) to show pitfalls that may arise from using such observational controls and suggest how to conduct the analysis in the face of the pitfalls. Two SiVETs were nested within previously established observational cohorts of fisherfolk (FF) and female sex workers (FSW) in Uganda. SiVET participants received a licensed Hepatitis B vaccine in a schedule (0, 1 and 6 months) similar to that for a possible HIV vaccine efficacy trial. All participants received HIV counselling and testing every quarter for one year to assess HIV incidence rate ratio (IRR) between SiVET and non-SiVET (observational data). Propensity scores, conditional on baseline characteristics were calculated for SiVET participation and matched between SiVET and non-SiVET in the period before and during the SiVET study. We compared IRR before and after propensity score matching (PSM). In total, 3989 participants were enrolled into observational cohorts prior to SiVET, (1575 FF prior to Jul 2012 and 2414 FSW prior to Aug 2014). SiVET enrolled 572 participants (Jul 2012 to Apr 2014 in FF and Aug 2014 to Apr 2017 in FSW), with 953 non-SiVET participants observed in the SiVET concurrent period and 2928 from the pre-SiVET period (before Jul 2012 in FF or before Apr 2014 in FSW). Imbalances in baseline characteristics were observed between SiVET and non-SiVET participants in both periods before PSM. Similarly, HIV incidence was lower in SiVET than non-SiVET; SiVET-concurrent period, IRR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.31-0.68, p = 0.033 and pre-SiVET period, IRR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.43-1.29, p = 0.161. After PSM, participants baseline characteristics were comparable and there were minimal differences in HIV incidence between SiVET and non-SiVET participants. The process of screening for eligibility for efficacy trial selects participants with baseline characteristics different from the source population, confounding any observed differences in HIV incidence. Propensity score matching can be a useful tool to adjust the imbalance in the measured participants' baseline characteristics creating a counterfactual group to estimate the effect of interventions on HIV incidence.

Willingness of female sex workers in Kampala, Uganda to participate in future HIV vaccine trials: a case control study

Background

We anticipate large efficacy trials of novel HIV vaccines that have shown acceptable safety profiles. We determined willingness to participate (WTP) in future HIV vaccine efficacy trials among HIV negative female sex workers (FSWs) in Kampala Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a case control study in the Good Health for Women Project cohort. Cases received HIV prevention services and, enrolled in a 12-month simulated vaccine efficacy trial (SiVET) that used Hepatitis B vaccine; they underwent vaccine trial procedures as would be in an actual trial. Controls received similar health services but did not enroll in SiVET. We matched cases and controls (ratio 2:1) for age and duration in the cohort. We described a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial to cases (after 9 months in SiVET) and controls including trial attributes: randomization, delaying pregnancy, frequent blood draws (80-100mls) and study visits for 3 years. We compared WTP and willingness for vaccine trial attributes by case/control using chi-squared or Fisher’s exact tests and fitted conditional logistic regression models to determine independent predictors of WTP.

Results

We analyzed data for 311 volunteers (219 cases, 92 controls); median age 27 years (IQR: 23–32), 39.9% had ≥secondary education, 57.9% had sex work as their main job and 81.9% used illicit drugs. Compared to controls, more cases had lived in the community for > 1 year, (85.4% vs 64.1%; p < 0.001) and fewer cases reported illicit drug use in the past 3 months, (79.0% vs 89.1%; p = 0.03). Overall, 278 (89.4%) volunteers expressed WTP in an HIV vaccine trial, the most common reason being hope of protection against HIV. More cases than controls (58.2% vs 44.7%) did not need to consult anyone before trial participation (p = 0.03); cases were more willing to delay pregnancy (99.0% vs 94.0%; p = 0.03). Combining vaccine trial attributes, 249 (89.6%) of the 278 accepted all attributes. After controlling for case/ control status women with secondary education or higher expressed less WTP (aOR 0.17; 95% CI 0.04–0.80).

Conclusion

FSWs in Kampala demonstrated high WTP. Prior experience with trial requirements like contraception may improve their uptake during actual trials. Family involvement is important for those without prior trial experience.

Correlations Between Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Infection and Rectal Gonorrhea Incidence in Men Who Have Sex With Men: Implications for Future HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Trials

Using published data, we found a direct correlation between the incidence of rectal gonorrhea and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in men who have sex with men who were not using oral preexposure prophylaxis. HIV incidence was predicted using rectal gonorrhea incidence as the determinant in regression analysis. The observed correlation suggest that rectal gonorrhea incidence can potentially serve as a predictor of HIV incidence. If confirmed with additional data, a quantitative correlation for incidence of the 2 infections could be useful in active-controlled HIV prevention trials where low HIV incidence is expected. Widespread improvements in treatment as prevention and gonorrhea control can negatively impact the correlation and its utility.

Brief Report: Routine Use of Oral PrEP in a Phase 2 Rectal Microbicide Study of Tenofovir Reduced-Glycerin 1% Gel (MTN-017)

BACKGROUND

As daily oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) becomes standard for HIV prevention, routine use of PrEP is likely to increase within clinical trials of novel preventive agents. We describe the prevalence and characteristics of participants reporting nonstudy oral PrEP use within Microbicide Trials Network-017 (MTN-017), a phase 2 trial of a rectal microbicide.

SETTING AND METHODS

One hundred ninety-five HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men and transgender women were enrolled and followed in MTN-017 across 8 sites in the United States, Thailand, South Africa, and Peru from 2013 to 2015. Nonstudy oral PrEP use was recorded on case report forms and progress notes. Characteristics of PrEP users and non-PrEP users were compared using tests of statistical significance.

RESULTS

Overall, 11% of participants reported nonstudy oral PrEP use, all from the San Francisco (SF) site, accounting for 58% (22/38) of participants enrolled in SF. There was a higher median number of sex partners reported in the past 8 weeks before enrollment among oral PrEP users vs. nonusers (7 vs. 2, P = 0.02). Most PrEP users (18/22, 82%) began PrEP treatment during screening/after enrollment, and most (19/22, 86%) decided to continue oral PrEP after study completion.

CONCLUSION

Nonstudy oral PrEP use in the first phase 2 study of tenofovir reduced-glycerin 1% gel was high at a single site in SF where community PrEP availability and use was expanding. Investigators should consider the evolving context of nonstudy oral PrEP use across trial sites when designing and interpreting trials of novel biomedical prevention modalities.

Advancing Novel PrEP Products - Alternatives to Non-Inferiority

With the scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TDF) with or without emtricitabine (FTC), we have entered an era of highly effective HIV prevention with a growing pipeline of potential products to be studied. These studies are likely to be randomized trials with an oral TDF/FTC control arm. These studies require comparison of incident infections and can be time and resource intensive. Conventional approaches for design and analysis active controlled trial can lead to very large sample sizes. We demonstrate the important of assumptions about background infections for interpreting trial results and suggest alternative criteria for demonstrating the efficacy and effectiveness of potential PrEP agents.

The Connection between the Averted Infections Ratio and the Rate Ratio in Active-control Trials of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Agents

The design and analysis of active-control trials to evaluate experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agents pose serious statistical challenges. We recently proposed a new outcome measure, the averted infections ratio (AIR) – the proportion of infections that would be averted by using the experimental agent rather than the control agent (compared to no intervention). The main aim of the current paper is to examine the mathematical connection between AIR and the HIV incidence rate ratio, the standard outcome measure. We also consider the sample size implications of the choice of primary outcome measure and explore the connection between effectiveness and efficacy under a simplified model of adherence.

A strategic action framework for multipurpose prevention technologies combining contraceptive hormones and antiretroviral drugs to prevent pregnancy and HIV

OBJECTIVE

Multipurpose prevention technologies (MPTs) are an innovative class of products that deliver varied combinations of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention, other sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention, and contraception. Combining separate strategies for different indications into singular prevention products can reduce the stigma around HIV and STI prevention, improve acceptability of and adherence to more convenient products, and be more cost-effective by addressing overlapping risks.

METHODS

This article outlines a strategic action framework developed as an outcome of a series of expert meetings held between 2014 and 2016. The meetings focused on identifying opportunities and challenges for MPTs that combine hormonal contraception (HC) with antiretroviral drugs into single products. The framework aims to present an actionable strategy, by addressing key research gaps and outlining the key areas for progress, to guide current and future HC MPT development.

RESULTS

We identified eight primary action areas for the development of impactful HC MPTs, and includes aspects from epidemiology, pharmacology, clinical trial design, regulatory requirements, manufacturing and commercialisation, behavioural science, and investment needs for research and development.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the challenges involved with reconciling the critical social-behavioural context that will drive MPT product use and uptake with the complexities of research and development and regulatory approval are of paramount importance. To realise the potential of MPTs given their complexity and finite resources, researchers in the MPT field must be strategic about the way forward; increased support among policy-makers, advocates, funders and the pharmaceutical industry is critical.

The averted infections ratio: a novel measure of effectiveness of experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis agents

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate combined with emtricitabine is a highly effective oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agent for preventing the acquisition of HIV. This effectiveness has consequences for the design and analysis of trials assessing experimental PrEP regimens, which now generally include an active-control tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine group, rather than a placebo group, as a comparator. Herein, we describe major problems in the interpretation of the primary measure of effectiveness proposed for these trials, namely the ratio of HIV incidence in the experimental agent group to that in the active-control group. We argue that valid interpretation requires an assumption about one of two parameters: either the incidence among trial participants had they not received PrEP or the effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine within the trial. However, neither parameter is directly observed because of the absence of a no-treatment group, thus requiring the use of external evidence or subjective judgment. We propose an alternative measure of effectiveness based on the concept of averted infections, which incorporates one of these parameters. The measure is simple to interpret, has clinical and public health relevance, and is a natural preservation-of-effect criterion for assessing statistical non-inferiority. Its adoption could also allow the use of smaller sample sizes, currently a major barrier to the assessment of experimental PrEP regimens.