An evaluation of surrogate chemical exposure measures and autism prevalence in Texas

Abnormal Porphyrin Metabolism in Autism Spectrum Disorder and Therapeutic Implications

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a mosaic of neurodevelopmental conditions composed of early-onset social interaction and communication deficits, along with repetitive and/or restricted patterns of activities, behavior, and interests. ASD affects around 1% of children worldwide, with a male predominance. Energy, porphyrin, and neurotransmitter homeostasis are the key metabolic pathways affected by heavy metal exposure, potentially implicated in the pathogenesis of ASD. Exposure to heavy metals can lead to an altered porphyrin metabolism due to enzyme inhibition by heavy metals. Heavy metal exposure, inborn genetic susceptibility, and abnormal thiol and selenol metabolism may play a significant role in the urinary porphyrin profile anomalies observed in ASD. Altered porphyrin metabolism in ASD may also be associated with, vitamin B6 deficiency, hyperoxalemia, hyperhomocysteinemia, and hypomagnesemia. The present review considers the abnormal porphyrin metabolism in ASD in relation to the potential pathogenic mechanism and discusses the possible metabolic therapies such as vitamins, minerals, cofactors, and antioxidants that need to be explored in future research. Such targeted therapeutic therapies would bring about favorable outcomes such as improvements in core and co-occurring symptoms.

Prenatal Metal Exposures and Child Social Responsiveness Scale Scores in 2 Prospective Studies

Background

Prenatal exposure to metals is hypothesized to be associated with child autism. We aim to investigate the joint and individual effects of prenatal exposure to urine metals including lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), manganese (Mn), and selenium (Se) on child Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) scores.

Methods

We used data from 2 cohorts enriched for likelihood of autism spectrum disorder (ASD): Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI) and the Markers of Autism Risk in Babies-Learning Early Signs (MARBLES) studies. Metal concentrations were measured in urine collected during pregnancy. We used Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression and linear regression models to investigate both joint and independent associations of metals with SRS Z-scores in each cohort. We adjusted for maternal age at delivery, interpregnancy interval, maternal education, child race/ethnicity, child sex, and/or study site.

Results

The final analytic sample consisted of 251 mother-child pairs. When Pb, Hg, Se, and Mn were at their 75th percentiles, there was a 0.03 increase (95% credible interval [CI]: -0.11, 0.17) in EARLI and 0.07 decrease (95% CI: -0.29, 0.15) in MARBLES in childhood SRS Z-scores, compared to when all 4 metals were at their 50th percentiles. In both cohorts, increasing concentrations of Pb were associated with increasing values of SRS Z-scores, fixing the other metals to their 50th percentiles. However, all the 95% credible intervals contained the null.

Conclusions

There were no clear monotonic associations between the overall prenatal metal mixture in pregnancy and childhood SRS Z-scores at 36 months. There were also no clear associations between individual metals within this mixture and childhood SRS Z-scores at 36 months. The overall effects of the metal mixture and the individual effects of each metal within this mixture on offspring SRS Z-scores might be heterogeneous across child sex and cohort. Further studies with larger sample sizes are warranted.

Evidence of susceptibility to autism risks associated with early life ambient air pollution: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Many studies have found associations between early life air pollution exposure and subsequent onset of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, characteristics that affect susceptibility remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review examined epidemiologic studies on the modifying roles of social, child, genetic and maternal characteristics in associations between prenatal and early postnatal air pollution exposure and ASD.

METHODS

A systematic literature search in PubMed and Embase was conducted. Studies that examined modifiers of the association between air pollution and ASD were included.

RESULTS

A total of 19 publications examined modifiers of the associations between early life air pollution exposures and ASD. In general, estimates of effects on risk of ASD in boys were larger than in girls (based on 11 studies). Results from studies of effects of family education (2 studies) and neighborhood deprivation (2 studies) on air pollution-ASD associations were inconsistent. Limited data (1 study) suggest pregnant women with insufficient folic acid intake might be more susceptible to ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and 10 μm (PM10) in aerodynamic diameter, and to nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Children of mothers with gestational diabetes had increased risk of ozone-associated ASD (1 study). Two genetic studies reported that copy number variations may amplify the effect of ozone, and MET rs1858830 CC genotype may augment effects of PM and near-roadway pollutants on ASD.

CONCLUSIONS

Child's sex, maternal nutrition or diabetes, socioeconomic factors, and child risk genotypes were reported to modify the effect of early-life air pollutants on ASD risk in the epidemiologic literature. However, the sparsity of studies on comparable modifying hypotheses precludes conclusive findings. Further research is needed to identify susceptible populations and potential targets for preventive intervention.

Potential Sex Differences Relative to Autism Spectrum Disorder and Metals

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This study aims to summarize the current body of literature on the relationship between various toxic metals exposures (i.e., aluminum, antimony, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese, and nickel) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD), with a focus on potential sex differences in these associations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Sex differences in ASD diagnosis and mutagenic effects of toxic exposures indicate that sex differences may play a major part in the causal relationship of any potential associations seen; however, we were only able to find three studies that reported on sex differences in observed associations with toxic metals exposure and ASD. We also found several studies investigating associations between ASD and metals exposures, including 11 on aluminum, 6 on antimony, 15 on arsenic, 5 on beryllium, 17 on cadmium, 11 on chromium, 25 on lead, 14 on manganese, and 13 on nickel with markers of exposure in hair, urine, blood, teeth, fingernails, and air pollution. Results for each metal were conflicting, but studies on cadmium and lead yielded the highest proportion of studies with positive results (72% and 36%, respectively). Based on our examination of existing literature, the current evidence warrants a considerable need for evaluations of sex differences in future studies assessing the association between metals exposures and ASD. Additionally, failure to account for potential sex differences could result in bias and misinterpretation of exposure-disease relationships.

A critical review of developmental exposure to particulate matter, autism spectrum disorder, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention deficit (hyperactivity) disorder (ADD/ADHD) are key focuses of current health research due to their increasing prevalence. The objective of this systematic literature search and critical review was to evaluate whether the human epidemiologic data indicate a pattern of association between ASD or ADD/ADHD and developmental exposure to particulate matter (PM), with a focus on exposures encountered before the age of three. A MEDLINE and EMBASE search was conducted; following preliminary and full-text screening, 14 relevant articles were identified for review. Three of the 14 studies were prospective cohort studies evaluating exposure to PM₁₀; 11 studies had a case-control design. There was no consistent association between developmental PM exposure and ASD across the three of the cohort studies. Seven of the case-control studies examined the relationship between PM_2.5 and/or PM₁₀ and ASD; four examined the relationship between developmental diesel PM exposure and ASD. Overall, there was low external consistency in results among studies of PM_2.5/PM₁₀ and ASD, with some reporting high internal consistency without significant associations, others showing associations with high internal consistency for specific exposure windows only (e.g., third trimester), and still others showing high consistency for moderate to strong associations between PM and ASD. The majority of studies reporting significant results had low effect sizes in conjunction with small sample sizes. The four studies of diesel PM and ASD also had low external consistency of results. Only one study evaluated associations with ADD/ADHD, and it found no significant associations with PM₁₀. The inconsistent findings across studies of developmental exposure to PM and ASD may be attributed to differences in the study populations, exposure assessments, outcome assessments, or chance. Further research is needed to understand the underlying biological mechanisms that lead to ASD and ADD/ADHD and how PM might be involved in those mechanisms, if at all. High-quality epidemiologic studies are also needed to conclusively determine whether developmental PM exposure is a causal factor for ASD or ADD/ADHD, with focus on a well-developed exposure assessment.

Systematic Assessment of Research on Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Mercury Reveals Conflicts of Interest and the Need for Transparency in Autism Research

Historically, entities with a vested interest in a product that critics have suggested is harmful have consistently used research to back their claims that the product is safe. Prominent examples are: tobacco, lead, bisphenol A, and atrazine. Research literature indicates that about 80-90% of studies with industry affiliation found no harm from the product, while only about 10-20% of studies without industry affiliation found no harm. In parallel to other historical debates, recent studies examining a possible relationship between mercury (Hg) exposure and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a similar dichotomy. Studies sponsored and supported by industry or entities with an apparent conflict of interest have most often shown no evidence of harm or no "consistent" evidence of harm, while studies without such affiliations report positive evidence of a Hg/autism association. The potentially causal relationship between Hg exposure and ASD differs from other toxic products since there is a broad coalition of entities for whom a conflict of interest arises. These include influential governmental public health entities, the pharmaceutical industry, and even the coal burning industry. This review includes a systematic literature search of original studies on the potential relationship between Hg and ASD from 1999 to August 2015, finding that of the studies with public health and/or industry affiliation, 86% reported no relationship between Hg and ASD. However, among studies without public health and/or industry affiliation, only 21% find no relationship between Hg and ASD. The discrepancy in these results suggests a bias indicative of a conflict of interest.

The association between air pollutants and autism spectrum disorders

Autism spectrum disorders are a member of the pervasive developmental disorders (PDDs) that have been increasing dramatically since described by Leo Kanner in 1943. In the past decade, the number of epidemiological publications addressing air pollution exposures and autism has grown correspondingly, but the association is still unclear. Whether air pollutants play a causal role and which substances are related with autism requires further study. We systematically reviewed the literature from 2005 to 2016 in MEDLINE (National Library of Medicine), Web of Science, and PubMed and summarized the association between different air pollutants and autism. Furthermore, we further discussed the exposure time window and potential confounders that should be considered in the association analysis studies. Our objective is to summarize the association between different air pollutants and autism with literature, which has been published since 2005, and explore whether the exposure time window and potential confounders have influence on this association. These results could provide more comprehensive information about the association between air pollutants and autism and be helpful towards further validation study. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

Significant Association of Urinary Toxic Metals and Autism-Related Symptoms-A Nonlinear Statistical Analysis with Cross Validation

Introduction

A number of previous studies examined a possible association of toxic metals and autism, and over half of those studies suggest that toxic metal levels are different in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). Additionally, several studies found that those levels correlate with the severity of ASD.

Methods

In order to further investigate these points, this paper performs the most detailed statistical analysis to date of a data set in this field. First morning urine samples were collected from 67 children and adults with ASD and 50 neurotypical controls of similar age and gender. The samples were analyzed to determine the levels of 10 urinary toxic metals (UTM). Autism-related symptoms were assessed with eleven behavioral measures. Statistical analysis was used to distinguish participants on the ASD spectrum and neurotypical participants based upon the UTM data alone. The analysis also included examining the association of autism severity with toxic metal excretion data using linear and nonlinear analysis. “Leave-one-out” cross-validation was used to ensure statistical independence of results.

Results and Discussion

Average excretion levels of several toxic metals (lead, tin, thallium, antimony) were significantly higher in the ASD group. However, ASD classification using univariate statistics proved difficult due to large variability, but nonlinear multivariate statistical analysis significantly improved ASD classification with Type I/II errors of 15% and 18%, respectively. These results clearly indicate that the urinary toxic metal excretion profiles of participants in the ASD group were significantly different from those of the neurotypical participants. Similarly, nonlinear methods determined a significantly stronger association between the behavioral measures and toxic metal excretion. The association was strongest for the Aberrant Behavior Checklist (including subscales on Irritability, Stereotypy, Hyperactivity, and Inappropriate Speech), but significant associations were found for UTM with all eleven autism-related assessments with cross-validation R² values ranging from 0.12–0.48.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Multiple Airborne Pollutants and Autism Spectrum Disorder

BACKGROUND

Exposure to ambient air pollution is widespread and may be detrimental to human brain development and a potential risk factor for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). We conducted a systematic review of the human evidence on the relationship between ASD and exposure to all airborne pollutants, including particulate matter air pollutants and others (e.g. pesticides and metals).

OBJECTIVE

To answer the question: "is developmental exposure to air pollution associated with ASD?"

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of the literature, identified relevant studies using inclusion/exclusion criteria pre-specified in our protocol (registered in PROSPERO, CRD # 42015017890), evaluated the potential risk of bias for each included study and identified an appropriate subset of studies to combine in a meta-analysis. We then rated the overall quality and strength of the evidence collectively across all air pollutants.

RESULTS

Of 1,158 total references identified, 23 human studies met our inclusion criteria (17 case-control, 4 ecological, 2 cohort). Risk of bias was generally low across studies for most domains; study limitations were related to potential confounding and accuracy of exposure assessment methods. We rated the quality of the body of evidence across all air pollutants as "moderate." From our meta-analysis, we found statistically significant summary odds ratios (ORs) of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure (n = 6 studies) and 2.32 (95% CI: 2.15, 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure (n = 3 studies). For pollutants not included in a meta-analysis, we collectively evaluated evidence from each study in rating the strength and quality of overall evidence considering factors such as inconsistency, imprecision, and evidence of dose-response. All included studies generally showed increased risk of ASD with increasing exposure to air pollution, although not consistently across all chemical components.

CONCLUSION

After considering strengths and limitations of the body of research, we concluded that there is "limited evidence of toxicity" for the association between early life exposure to air pollution as a whole and diagnosis of ASD. The strongest evidence was between prenatal exposure to particulate matter and ASD. However, the small number of studies in the meta-analysis and unexplained statistical heterogeneity across the individual study estimates means that the effect could be larger or smaller (including not significant) than these studies estimate. Our research supports the need for health protective public policy to reduce exposures to harmful airborne contaminants among pregnant women and children and suggests opportunities for optimizing future research.

The relationship between mercury and autism: A comprehensive review and discussion

The brain pathology in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) indicates marked and ongoing inflammatory reactivity with concomitant neuronal damage. These findings are suggestive of neuronal insult as a result of external factors, rather than some type of developmental mishap. Various xenobiotics have been suggested as possible causes of this pathology. In a recent review, the top ten environmental compounds suspected of causing autism and learning disabilities were listed and they included: lead, methyl-mercury, polychorinated biphenyls, organophosphate pesticides, organochlorine pesticides, endocrine disruptors, automotive exhaust, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and perfluorinated compounds. This current review, however, will focus specifically on mercury exposure and ASD by conducting a comprehensive literature search of original studies in humans that examine the potential relationship between mercury and ASD, categorizing, summarizing, and discussing the published research that addresses this topic. This review found 91 studies that examine the potential relationship between mercury and ASD from 1999 to February 2016. Of these studies, the vast majority (74%) suggest that mercury is a risk factor for ASD, revealing both direct and indirect effects. The preponderance of the evidence indicates that mercury exposure is causal and/or contributory in ASD.

Urbanicity and autism spectrum disorders

The etiology of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is for the majority of cases unknown and more studies of risk factors are needed. Geographic variation in ASD occurrence has been observed, and urban residence has been suggested to serve as a proxy for etiologic and identification factors in ASD. We examined the association between urbanicity level and ASD at birth and during childhood. The study used a Danish register-based cohort of more than 800,000 children of which nearly 4,000 children were diagnosed with ASD. We found a dose-response association with greater level of urbanicity and risk of ASD. This association was found for residence at birth as well as residence during childhood. Further, we found an increased risk of ASD in children who moved to a higher level of urbanicity after birth. Also, earlier age of ASD diagnosis in urban areas was observed. While we could not directly examine the specific reasons behind these associations, our results demonstrating particularly strong associations between ASD diagnosis and post-birth migration suggest the influence of identification-related factors such as access to services might have a substantive role on the ASD differentials we observed.

Prenatal and neonatal peripheral blood mercury levels and autism spectrum disorders

BACKGROUND

Prenatal and early-life exposures to mercury have been hypothesized to be associated with increased risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs).

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the association between ASDs and levels of total mercury measured in maternal serum from mid-pregnancy and infant blood shortly after birth.

METHODS

The study sample was drawn from the Early Markers for Autism (EMA) Study. Three groups of children who were born in Orange County, CA in 2000-2001 were identified: children with ASD (n=84), children with intellectual disability or developmental delay (DD) (n=49), and general population controls (GP) (n=159). Maternal serum specimens and newborn bloodspots were retrieved from the California Department of Public Health prenatal and newborn screening specimen archives. Blood mercury levels were measured in maternal serum samples using mass spectrometer and in infant bloodspots with a 213 nm laser.

RESULTS

Maternal serum and infant blood mercury levels were significantly correlated among all study groups (all correlations >0.38, p<0.01). Adjusted logistic regression models showed no significant associations between ASD and log transformed mercury levels in maternal serum samples (ASD vs. GP: OR [95% CI]=0.96 [0.49-1.90]; ASD vs. DD: OR [95% CI]=2.56 [0.89-7.39]). Results for mercury levels in newborn blood samples were similar (ASD vs. GP: OR [95% CI]=1.18 [0.71-1.95]; ASD vs. DD: OR [95% CI]=1.96 [0.75-5.14]).

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that levels of total mercury in serum collected from mothers during mid-pregnancy and from newborn bloodspots were not significantly associated with risk of ASD, though additional studies with greater sample size and covariate measurement are needed.

Environmental and state-level regulatory factors affect the incidence of autism and intellectual disability

Many factors affect the risks for neurodevelopmental maladies such as autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and intellectual disability (ID). To compare environmental, phenotypic, socioeconomic and state-policy factors in a unified geospatial framework, we analyzed the spatial incidence patterns of ASD and ID using an insurance claims dataset covering nearly one third of the US population. Following epidemiologic evidence, we used the rate of congenital malformations of the reproductive system as a surrogate for environmental exposure of parents to unmeasured developmental risk factors, including toxins. Adjusted for gender, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geopolitical factors, the ASD incidence rates were strongly linked to population-normalized rates of congenital malformations of the reproductive system in males (an increase in ASD incidence by 283% for every percent increase in incidence of malformations, 95% CI: [91%, 576%], p<6×10(-5)). Such congenital malformations were barely significant for ID (94% increase, 95% CI: [1%, 250%], p = 0.0384). Other congenital malformations in males (excluding those affecting the reproductive system) appeared to significantly affect both phenotypes: 31.8% ASD rate increase (CI: [12%, 52%], p<6×10(-5)), and 43% ID rate increase (CI: [23%, 67%], p<6×10(-5)). Furthermore, the state-mandated rigor of diagnosis of ASD by a pediatrician or clinician for consideration in the special education system was predictive of a considerable decrease in ASD and ID incidence rates (98.6%, CI: [28%, 99.99%], p = 0.02475 and 99% CI: [68%, 99.99%], p = 0.00637 respectively). Thus, the observed spatial variability of both ID and ASD rates is associated with environmental and state-level regulatory factors; the magnitude of influence of compound environmental predictors was approximately three times greater than that of state-level incentives. The estimated county-level random effects exhibited marked spatial clustering, strongly indicating existence of as yet unidentified localized factors driving apparent disease incidence. Finally, we found that the rates of ASD and ID at the county level were weakly but significantly correlated (Pearson product-moment correlation 0.0589, p = 0.00101), while for females the correlation was much stronger (0.197, p<2.26×10(-16)).

Environmental toxicants and autism spectrum disorders: a systematic review

Although the involvement of genetic abnormalities in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is well-accepted, recent studies point to an equal contribution by environmental factors, particularly environmental toxicants. However, these toxicant-related studies in ASD have not been systematically reviewed to date. Therefore, we compiled publications investigating potential associations between environmental toxicants and ASD and arranged these publications into the following three categories: (a) studies examining estimated toxicant exposures in the environment during the preconceptional, gestational and early childhood periods; (b) studies investigating biomarkers of toxicants; and (c) studies examining potential genetic susceptibilities to toxicants. A literature search of nine electronic scientific databases through November 2013 was performed. In the first category examining ASD risk and estimated toxicant exposures in the environment, the majority of studies (34/37; 92%) reported an association. Most of these studies were retrospective case-control, ecological or prospective cohort studies, although a few had weaker study designs (for example, case reports or series). Toxicants implicated in ASD included pesticides, phthalates, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), solvents, toxic waste sites, air pollutants and heavy metals, with the strongest evidence found for air pollutants and pesticides. Gestational exposure to methylmercury (through fish exposure, one study) and childhood exposure to pollutants in water supplies (two studies) were not found to be associated with ASD risk. In the second category of studies investigating biomarkers of toxicants and ASD, a large number was dedicated to examining heavy metals. Such studies demonstrated mixed findings, with only 19 of 40 (47%) case-control studies reporting higher concentrations of heavy metals in blood, urine, hair, brain or teeth of children with ASD compared with controls. Other biomarker studies reported that solvent, phthalate and pesticide levels were associated with ASD, whereas PCB studies were mixed. Seven studies reported a relationship between autism severity and heavy metal biomarkers, suggesting evidence of a dose-effect relationship. Overall, the evidence linking biomarkers of toxicants with ASD (the second category) was weaker compared with the evidence associating estimated exposures to toxicants in the environment and ASD risk (the first category) because many of the biomarker studies contained small sample sizes and the relationships between biomarkers and ASD were inconsistent across studies. Regarding the third category of studies investigating potential genetic susceptibilities to toxicants, 10 unique studies examined polymorphisms in genes associated with increased susceptibilities to toxicants, with 8 studies reporting that such polymorphisms were more common in ASD individuals (or their mothers, 1 study) compared with controls (one study examined multiple polymorphisms). Genes implicated in these studies included paraoxonase (PON1, three of five studies), glutathione S-transferase (GSTM1 and GSTP1, three of four studies), δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (one study), SLC11A3 (one study) and the metal regulatory transcription factor 1 (one of two studies). Notably, many of the reviewed studies had significant limitations, including lack of replication, limited sample sizes, retrospective design, recall and publication biases, inadequate matching of cases and controls, and the use of nonstandard tools to diagnose ASD. The findings of this review suggest that the etiology of ASD may involve, at least in a subset of children, complex interactions between genetic factors and certain environmental toxicants that may act synergistically or in parallel during critical periods of neurodevelopment, in a manner that increases the likelihood of developing ASD. Because of the limitations of many of the reviewed studies, additional high-quality epidemiological studies concerning environmental toxicants and ASD are warranted to confirm and clarify many of these findings.

Perinatal air pollutant exposures and autism spectrum disorder in the children of Nurses' Health Study II participants

OBJECTIVE

Air pollution contains many toxicants known to affect neurological function and to have effects on the fetus in utero. Recent studies have reported associations between perinatal exposure to air pollutants and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in children. We tested the hypothesis that perinatal exposure to air pollutants is associated with ASD, focusing on pollutants associated with ASD in prior studies.

METHODS

We estimated associations between U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-modeled levels of hazardous air pollutants at the time and place of birth and ASD in the children of participants in the Nurses' Health Study II (325 cases, 22,101 controls). Our analyses focused on pollutants associated with ASD in prior research. We accounted for possible confounding and ascertainment bias by adjusting for family-level socioeconomic status (maternal grandparents' education) and census tract-level socioeconomic measures (e.g., tract median income and percent college educated), as well as maternal age at birth and year of birth. We also examined possible differences in the relationship between ASD and pollutant exposures by child's sex.

RESULTS

Perinatal exposures to the highest versus lowest quintile of diesel, lead, manganese, mercury, methylene chloride, and an overall measure of metals were significantly associated with ASD, with odds ratios ranging from 1.5 (for overall metals measure) to 2.0 (for diesel and mercury). In addition, linear trends were positive and statistically significant for these exposures (p < .05 for each). For most pollutants, associations were stronger for boys (279 cases) than for girls (46 cases) and significantly different according to sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Perinatal exposure to air pollutants may increase risk for ASD. Additionally, future studies should consider sex-specific biological pathways connecting perinatal exposure to pollutants with ASD.

Administrative censoring in ecological analyses of autism and a Bayesian solution

Widely cited ecological analyses of autism have reported associations with mercury emissions, with precipitation, and race at the level of counties or school districts. However, state educational agencies often suppress any low numerical autism counts before releasing data--a phenomenon known as "administrative censoring." Previous analyses did not describe appropriate methods for censored data analysis; common substitution or exclusion methods are known to introduce bias and produce artificially narrow confidence intervals. We apply a Bayesian censored random effects Poisson model to reanalyze associations between 2001 Toxic Release Inventory reported mercury emissions and 2000-2001 autism counts in Texas. Relative risk estimates for autism decreased from 4.44 (95% CI: 4.16, 4.74) per thousand lbs. of air mercury emissions using a naive zero-substitution approach to 1.42 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.78) using the Bayesian approach. Inadequate attention to censoring poses a serious threat to the validity of ecological analyses of autism and other health outcomes.

A novel method for reducing the number of agents to be studied in an occupational epidemiologic study

A novel screening tool method to select chemicals for exposure reconstruction was developed and validated using data generated for a hypothetical work force consisting of 10 job classes (ranging from 10,000 to 55,000 person-years). To achieve the required efficiency in the reconstruction of exposures, this method treats each product (defined as a part or process) as an "exposure." Exposure to 10 products was assigned to each job class at random using a computer program. The expected rate of a given disease was assumed to be constant throughout the job classes (tested at five levels), and the observed numbers of cases in the job classes were generated based on neutral deviations from background with error rates of ± 1% to 16%. One job class was assigned to be the "excess-class" and the number of cases in that class was increased by a factor of Q, which was set at levels that ranged from 1.25 to 5. All of the experimental conditions were replicated 10,000 times in a Monte Carlo scheme for scenarios in which each job class had been designated as the excess-class. Following each run, significant excesses (if any) were determined using a modified version of Daniel's method, and the percentages of false positive and false negative identifications were tabulated. We found that the sensitivity of the method is largely dependent on the relative risk (Q) associated with the exposure. Specifically, the results indicate that as the relative risk increases, the percentage of false negative identifications of the excesses is reduced to nearly 0% and the percentage of false positive identifications is approximately 13%. When applied to real data, should an association be detected between any product and a health outcome, this preliminary analysis will yield a reduced "product" set that can then be investigated in detail and the agents involved considered further for quantitative reconstruction. The proposed method is highly efficient and has the potential to benefit future complex exposure reconstruction studies, particularly when there is no predetermined exposure associated with an observed increase in a cause-specific health end point.