Improvement in hospital Quality of Care (QoC) after the introduction of rotavirus vaccination: An evaluation study in Belgium

Capturing the Value of Vaccination within Health Technology Assessment and Health Economics-Practical Considerations for Expanding Valuation by Including Key Concepts

Following the development of a value of vaccination (VoV) framework for health technology assessment/cost-effectiveness analysis (HTA/CEA), and identification of three vaccination benefits for near-term inclusion in HTA/CEA, this final paper provides decision makers with methods and examples to consider benefits of health systems strengthening (HSS), equity, and macroeconomic gains. Expert working groups, targeted literature reviews, and case studies were used. Opportunity cost methods were applied for HSS benefits of rotavirus vaccination. Vaccination, with HSS benefits included, reduced the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) by 1.4-50.5% (to GBP 11,552-GBP 23,016) depending on alternative conditions considered. Distributional CEA was applied for health equity benefits of meningococcal vaccination. Nearly 80% of prevented cases were among the three most deprived groups. Vaccination, with equity benefits included, reduced the ICER by 22-56% (to GBP 7014-GBP 12,460), depending on equity parameters. Macroeconomic models may inform HTA deliberative processes (e.g., disease impact on the labour force and the wider economy), or macroeconomic outcomes may be assessed for individuals in CEAs (e.g., impact on non-health consumption, leisure time, and income). These case studies show how to assess broader vaccination benefits in current HTA/CEA, providing decision makers with more accurate and complete VoV assessments. More work is needed to refine inputs and methods, especially for macroeconomic gains.

Fiscal analysis of the pediatric immunization program in Belgium applying a lifetime government perspective framework

OBJECTIVES

A public economic framework was used to explore lifetime government costs and benefits in relation to the Pediatric Immunization Program (PIP) in Belgium based on cases and deaths averted.

METHODS

To estimate changes in net government revenue, we developed a decision-analytic model that quantifies lifetime tax revenues and transfers based on changes in morbidity and mortality arising from Belgium's Pediatric Immunization Program (PIP). The model considered differences in incidence rates with vaccines included in Belgium's PIP: compared with the pre-vaccine era. Changes in deaths and comorbid conditions attributed to PIP on the Belgium 2020 birth cohort were used to estimate gross lifetime earnings changes, tax revenue gains attributed to averted morbidity and mortality avoidance, disability transfer cost savings, and averted special education costs associated with each vaccine.

RESULTS

Vaccinating a single birth cohort according to the PIP gives rise to fiscal gains of €56 million in averted tax revenue loss, €8 million disability savings, and €6 million special education cost-savings. Based on the costs of implementing the PIP, we estimate the fiscal benefit-cost ratio (fBCR) of €2.2 investment return for the government from every €1 invested excluding longevity costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing vaccine-preventable conditions generates tax revenue for the government, providing fiscal justification for sustained immunization investments.

The economic impact of the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination on rotavirus gastroenteritis related hospitalisations in children in Ireland

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE), a vaccine preventable disease, remains a common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children globally. Ireland introduced the universal rotavirus vaccination to the national immunisation programme in 2016. In this paper the economic impact on RVGE related hospitalisations amongst children under 5 years is examined.

METHODS

Using national data from all Irish public hospitals, an Interrupted Times Series Analysis (ITSA) compares RVGE hospitalisations amongst children under 5 years, pre- and post-vaccine introduction. Costs are estimated and ITSA results are compared to the counterfactual to estimate the economic impact of the vaccine. A probit model examines patient characteristics pre- and post-vaccine introduction.

RESULTS

Vaccine introduction coincided with lowered RVGE related hospitalisations. While this effect was delayed (1 year) there is evidence of a sustained impact. RVGE patients' post-vaccine introduction were likely to be over 2 years (p = 0.001) and length of stay was lower on average (p = 0.095). The counterfactual analysis revealed 492 RVGE hospitalisations were avoided on average annually since the introduction of the vaccine. This has an estimated economic value of €0.92 million per annum.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in Ireland, hospitalisations for RVGE decreased significantly and those hospitalised were older and with a reduced length of stay on average. This has the potential for significant cost savings for the Irish healthcare system.

Infections and hospital bed-days among aging adults: A five-year retrospective study in a Belgian general hospital

Background

Infectious disease in aging adults (≥61 years) often occurs in combination with other health conditions leading to long hospital stays. Detailed studies on infection in aging adults investigating this problem are sparse.

Aim

To quantify the effect of primary and secondary diagnosed infections on hospitalization bed-days among aging adult patients.

Design

Retrospective patient-file study.

Setting

Ziekenhuis Netwerk Antwerpen (ZNA) Hospital, a 1,858-bed general hospital in Belgium, with 364 beds allocated to geriatric patients.

Data source

Database of hospitalized adult patients aged ≥61 years.

Methods

All adult patients aged ≥61 years hospitalized on two wards, Geriatrics and Pulmonology, from 2010 to 2014 were included. Primary diagnosed infections were defined as infections known at entry to be treated first. Secondary diagnosed infections included infections known at entry but treated in parallel to primary non-infectious causes of entry, infections unknown at entry, and hospital-acquired (nosocomial) infections. Data were analyzed by patient age, gender, year, ward type, bed-days of hospitalization, infection rates, and seasonality.

Results

There were 3,306 primary diagnosed infections (18%) and 14,758 secondary infections (82%) identified in the two wards combined (54.7% of all hospital stays at those 2 wards). Secondary diagnosed infections accounted for a significantly higher proportion of hospitalizations in both wards (+40% for Geriatric ward; +20% for Pulmonology ward; p < 0.001) and were associated with a significantly longer average hospital stay (+4 days for Geriatric ward; +5 days for Pulmonology ward; p < 0.001). Nosocomial infections (12% for Geriatric ward; 7% for Pulmonology ward) were associated with particularly high bed-days of hospitalization, at approximately +15 days and +12 days on Geriatric and Pulmonology wards, respectively. Both wards showed marked seasonality for respiratory infections with winter peaks.

Conclusion

Real-world data showed that secondary diagnosed infections in aging adults imposed a high burden on hospital care along with longer hospital stays. This hampered bed availability during peak seasons.

Real-world impact of rotavirus vaccination in European healthcare settings: a systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus is one of the most common pathogens causing diarrhea in children <5 years and has a major impact on childhood morbidity and mortality. Since the implementation of rotavirus vaccines into childhood immunization programs across Europe, there has been a reduction in rotavirus burden, including hospitalizations, outpatient cases, costs, and deaths.

AREAS COVERED

A systematic literature review identified publications describing the clinical and economic impact of rotavirus vaccinations across Europe, from their introduction in 2006 to the end of 2020. A total of 3,137 articles were identified, of which 46 were included in the review. Included articles reported the impact of rotavirus vaccination on disease in any age group.

EXPERT OPINION

Rotavirus vaccination has resulted in substantial reductions in hospitalizations and rotavirus-associated costs across Europe, particularly in children <5 years. There is some evidence of herd protection afforded to older age groups where vaccine uptake is high among infants, highlighting the potential for vaccination to confer a greater societal benefit as programs become more established. Increasing vaccination coverage and continuing investment in widespread rotavirus vaccination programs across countries will likely increase the substantial public health benefits associated with vaccination and further reduce the clinical and economic burden of disease.

Acceptance and application of a broad population health perspective when evaluating vaccine

The traditional health economic analysis is limited to estimating the impact on the treated patient. As vaccines are usually aimed at preventing infectious diseases, they may be associated with additional values for the non-treated wider population. Although there are valid reasons for treating vaccines differently, and a wide support for a broader perspective in the literature (i.e., beyond the net costs and health gain related to the outcome for the vaccinated individual), it remains unclear to what extent the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies accept and apply a broader perspective.

The purpose of this study is to examine and discuss what type of consequences are relevant for a health economic analysis of vaccines and which consequences are considered by HTA agencies. The study includes a strategic review of literature and HTA decisions in Sweden and other countries, online round-table discussions with stakeholders in Sweden, and a basic estimation of the value of a COVID-19 vaccination in Sweden.

The study shows that, other than herd effect, broader economic consequences for the population are generally not included in the economic evaluation of vaccines. Also, all economic consequences for the treated patient (production loss) and caregiver (health loss) are not always considered. The perspective chosen can have a major impact on the outcome of the analysis. A vaccine for COVID-19 is estimated to provide a value of €744–€956 per dose when using a societal perspective including broader consequences for the population.

Providing a complete and appropriate picture of the value of vaccination is of importance to allocate resources efficiently, to provide incentives for vaccine development, and to show the cost of delaying decisions to implement a new vaccine.

Defining the Recipe for an Optimal Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction in a High-Income Country in Europe

Observational data over 15 years of rotavirus vaccine introduction in Belgium have indicated that rotavirus hospitalisations in children aged <5 years plateaued at a higher level than expected, and was followed by biennial disease peaks. The research objective was to identify factors influencing these real-world vaccine impact data. We constructed mathematical models simulating rotavirus-related hospitalisations by age group and year for those children. Two periods were defined using different model constructs. First, the vaccine uptake period encompassed the years required to cover the whole at-risk population. Second, the post-uptake period covered the years in which a new infection/disease equilibrium was reached. The models were fitted to the observational data using optimisation programmes with regression and differential equations. Modifying parameter values identified factors affecting the pattern of hospitalisations. Results indicated that starting vaccination well before the peak disease season in the first year and rapidly achieving high coverage was critical in maximising early herd effect and minimising secondary sources of infection. This, in turn, would maximise the reduction in hospitalisations and minimise the size and frequency of subsequent disease peaks. The analysis and results identified key elements to consider for countries initiating an optimal rotavirus vaccine launch programme.

Explaining the formation of a plateau in rotavirus vaccine impact on rotavirus hospitalisations in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Observational data on the reduction in hospitalisations after rotavirus vaccine introduction in Belgium suggest that vaccine impact plateaued at an unexpectedly high residual hospitalisation rate. The objective of this analysis was to identify factors that influence real-world vaccine impact.

METHODS

Data were collected on hospitalisations in children aged ≤ 5 years with rotavirus disease from 11 hospitals since 2005 (the RotaBIS study). The universal rotavirus vaccination campaign started late in 2006. A mathematical model simulated rotavirus hospitalisations in different age groups using vaccine efficacy and herd effect, influenced by vaccine coverage, vaccine waning, and secondary infection sources. The model used optimisation analysis to fit the simulated curve to the observed data, applying Solver add-in software. It also simulated an 'ideal' vaccine introduction maximising hospitalisation reduction (maximum coverage, maximum herd effect, no waning), and compared this with the best-fit simulated curve. Modifying model input values identified factors with the largest impact on hospitalisations.

RESULTS

Compared with the 'ideal' simulation, observed data showed a slower decline in hospitalisations and levelled off after three years at a higher residual hospitalisation rate. The slower initial decline was explained by the herd effect in unvaccinated children. The higher residual hospitalisation rate was explained by starting the vaccine programme in November, near the rotavirus seasonal peak. This resulted in low accumulated vaccine coverage during the first rotavirus disease peak season, with the consequential appearance of secondary infection sources. This in turn reduced the herd effect, resulting in a diminished net impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that countries wishing to maximise the impact of rotavirus vaccination should start vaccinating well ahead of the rotavirus seasonal disease peak. This maximises herd effect during the first year leading to rapid and high reduction in hospitalisations. Secondary infection sources explain the observed data in Belgium better than vaccine waning.

Review of Over 15 Years Postmarketing Safety Surveillance Spontaneous Data for the Human Rotavirus Vaccine (Rotarix) on Intussusception

Introduction

Rotavirus (RV) is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis in children <5 years of age worldwide, and vaccination reduces the disease burden. Evidence from postmarketing surveillance studies suggested an increased risk of intussusception (IS) in infants post-RV vaccination. An overall positive benefit–risk balance for the human RV vaccine (HRV) Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline [GSK], Belgium) has been established and recent findings indicate an indirect effect of reduced IS over the long term.

Objective

The aim of this study was to discuss spontaneous data from the GSK worldwide safety database on IS post-Rotarix administration.

Methods

The database was reviewed for all spontaneous IS cases from 2004 to 2020. Additionally, an observed versus expected (O/E) analysis was done for adverse events attributed to IS. Data were reviewed as overall worldwide and stratified by region (Europe/USA/Japan) and dose.

Results

A male predominance of IS patients was observed, consistent with earlier reports. The most frequently reported events in confirmed IS cases (Brighton Collaboration Working Group [BCWG] level 1) with time to onset ≤ 30 days post-vaccination were vomiting (55.8%), haematochezia (47.2%), and crying (21.1%). The observations from the IS spontaneous cases review and results of the O/E analysis are consistent with the known IS safety profile of RV vaccines: a transient increased incidence of IS post-vaccination (primarily in Europe/Japan/worldwide), mostly within 7 days postdose 1.

Conclusion

Since the outcomes of early IS management are favourable over delayed management, healthcare professionals should inform parents about the importance of seeking immediate medical advice in case of unusual behaviour of the vaccinated infant. GSK continues to monitor the IS risk post-Rotarix administration through routine pharmacovigilance activities.

Graphic abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40264-021-01141-4.

Rotavirus (RV) is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis and a major cause of death in young children worldwide. Vaccination has been instrumental in reducing the impact of RV disease. Real-world evidence suggests an increased risk of intussusception (an infrequent type of bowel obstruction) in infants following RV vaccination. We reviewed IS cases reported spontaneously worldwide in children following a two-dose vaccination with the human RV vaccine (Rotarix, GlaxoSmithKline [GSK]) since its launch in 2004. We observed that (1) IS occurred more frequently 7 days after the first dose and, to a lesser extent, after the second dose; (2) boys were more frequently affected than girls (56.3%); (3) of 862 confirmed reported cases, 557 required hospitalisation; and (4) surgical intervention was required for 294 of 557 hospitalised cases. We used statistical analysis to assess whether the number of cases observed would be higher or lower than the natural occurrence of IS (irrespective of vaccination). These results were in line with the known RV vaccine safety profile. It is important to constantly monitor the real-world safety profile of RV vaccines in the postmarketing setting. Since the outcomes of early management of IS are favourable compared with delayed management, healthcare professionals should inform parents to seek immediate medical advice if they observe unusual behaviour in their vaccinated child. In conclusion, our analyses on data of a large patient pool for this rare event reinforce the favourable safety profile of human RV vaccine and the benefits of vaccination in young children.

Lessons Learned from Long-Term Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in a High-Income Country: The Case of the Rotavirus Vaccine Belgium Impact Study (RotaBIS)

INTRODUCTION

The rotavirus (RV) vaccine Belgium Impact Study (RotaBIS) evaluated the vaccine effect on RV-related hospital care in children up to 5 years old over a period of 13 years. Different forces were identified that influence the reduction in hospital care. Our analysis aims to report on the current RotaBIS dataset and explore through model simulation whether, how, and when the results could have been improved.

METHODS

As performed in previous assessments, this analysis evaluated RV-related events per year, per age group, RV nosocomial infections, hospitalization duration, and herd effect. It subsequently identified results that were surprising or unexpected. To know whether those data could have been improved through specific interventions, we developed a model with the forces acting on the disease transmission and the vaccine effect on RV-related hospital care. Scenario analysis of the forces should explain the current findings and identify ways to optimize the results.

RESULTS

The RotaBIS data show that annual RV-related hospital cases (n = 1345 pre-vaccination) dropped by 70% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66-74%) by year 5 (n = 395) after vaccine introduction, and by 84% (95% CI 79-89%) by year 10 (n = 217). The herd effect during the first year was limited to 14% extra gain. During the last 5 years, small disease increases were seen biennially. The simulation model indicates that higher vaccine coverage of the major transmitters during the peak season of the first year of vaccination could have reduced RV-related hospital care by nearly 90% at 5 and 10 years after vaccine introduction owing to a higher herd effect. The smaller peaks observed in recent years would have been dramatically reduced.

CONCLUSION

The current RotaBIS data show a maintained reduction, around 76%, in RV hospitalization cases. Simulations show that these results could have been improved to an important extent with a more optimal initiation of the vaccination program.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT01563146 and NCT01563159.

Concomitant administration of a liquid formulation of human rotavirus vaccine (porcine circovirus-free) with routine childhood vaccines in infants in the United States: Results from a phase 3, randomized trial

BACKGROUND

In response to the detection of porcine circovirus type 1 (PCV-1) in the human rotavirus vaccine (HRV), a PCV-free HRV (no detection of PCV-1 and PCV-2 according to the detection limit of tests used) was developed. Liquid (Liq) PCV-free HRV previously showed immunogenicity and safety profiles comparable to lyophilized (Lyo) HRV.

METHODS

This was a phase 3a, randomized, single-blind study (NCT03207750) conducted in the United States. Healthy infants aged 6-12 weeks received 2 doses (0, 2 months) of either Liq PCV-free HRV or Lyo HRV with routine vaccines (0, 2, 4 months): diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis, hepatitis B and inactivated poliovirus combination vaccine (DTaP-HBV-IPV), monovalent tetanus toxoid-conjugated vaccine against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib-TT), and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Co-primary objectives were: (i) to assess non-inferiority of immune responses to routine vaccine antigens 1 month post-dose 3 following co-administration with Liq PCV-free HRV compared to Lyo HRV; (ii) to rule out a 10% decrease in seroresponse to pertussis antigens after dose 3. Other objectives were to evaluate immunogenicity and safety of HRV vaccines.

RESULTS

Of 1272 vaccinated infants, 990 (489 in Liq PCV-free HRV and 501 in Lyo HRV group) were included in the per-protocol set. All statistical criteria were met, thus co-primary objectives were demonstrated. Seroprotection/seropositivity rates in both groups were high: 100% for diphtheria/tetanus, ≥99.3% for HBV, ≥99.8% for polio, ≥99.8% for each pertussis antigen, ≥90.8% for all pneumococcal serotypes except serotype 3 (≥69.1%), and ≥ 97.4% for Hib. Most infants seroconverted for anti-RV antibodies (76.3% of Liq PCV-free HRV and 78.9% of Lyo HRV recipients). Geometric mean concentrations/titers were comparable between groups. Incidences of adverse events and serious adverse events were similar between groups.

CONCLUSION

Routine pediatric vaccines co-administered with Liq PCV-free HRV showed non-inferior immune responses and similar safety profiles to those following co-administration with Lyo HRV.

Fifteen years of experience with the oral live-attenuated human rotavirus vaccine: reflections on lessons learned

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus (RV) disease remains a prominent cause of disease burden in children <5 years of age worldwide. However, implementation of RV vaccination has led to significant reductions in RV mortality, compared to the pre-vaccination era. This review presents 15 years of real-world experience with the oral live-attenuated human RV vaccine (HRV; Rotarix). HRV is currently introduced in ≥80 national immunization programs (NIPs), as 2 doses starting from 6 weeks of age.

AREAS COVERED

The clinical development of HRV and post-marketing experience indicating the impact of HRV vaccination on RV disease was reviewed.

EXPERT OPINION

In clinical trials, HRV displayed an acceptable safety profile and efficacy against RV-gastroenteritis, providing broad protection against heterotypic RV strains by reducing the consequences of severe RV disease in infants. Real-world evidence shows substantial, rapid reduction in the number of RV infections and associated hospitalizations following introduction of HRV in NIPs, regardless of economic setting. Indirect effects against RV disease are also observed, such as herd protection, decrease in nosocomial infections incidence, and a reduction of disease-related societal/healthcare costs. However, not all countries have implemented RV vaccination. Coverage remains suboptimal and should be improved to maximize the benefits of RV vaccination.

Rotavirus vaccination and intussusception: a paradigm shift?

Rotavirus (RV) is one of the leading causes of severe childhood gastroenteritis in children <5 years of age. Several countries have successfully implemented vaccination against RV disease; however, hesitancy to include RV vaccination in the national immunization program exists and relates, among other reasons, to the results of international post-licensure studies of RV vaccines that established an increased risk of intussusception (IS) in infants following immunization. IS is one of the major causes of bowel obstruction in infants between 4 and 10 months of age. Some studies have investigated the etiology of IS, including the role of natural RV infection and available evidence suggests that RV disease may be an independent risk factor for IS. In this regard, the benefit-risk profile of RV vaccination, which is recognized as positive, could potentially turn out to be even more favorable in preventing IS cases triggered by RV disease. However, further research is prompted to quantify the IS risk attributable to RV disease.

Immunogenicity and safety of porcine circovirus-free human rotavirus vaccine in healthy infants: a phase III, randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Porcine circovirus type 1 (PCV-1) material was detected in the human rotavirus vaccine (HRV) in 2010. In this study (NCT02914184) we compared immunogenicity and safety of the PCV-free HRV vaccine (PCV-free HRV) with HRV. PCV-free HRV is an HRV with no detection of PCV-1 and PCV-2 according to the limit of detection of the tests used.

METHODS

Healthy infants 6-12 weeks of age were randomized (1:1:1:1) to receive 2 doses of 1 of the 3 lots of PCV-free HRV or HRV. The study objectives were to demonstrate lot-to-lot consistency of the PCV-free HRV and non-inferiority of PCV-free HRV as compared to HRV in terms of immunogenicity, 1-2 months post-dose 2. Reactogenicity and safety were also assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 1612 infants were enrolled and 1545 completed the study. Study objectives were demonstrated since the pre-defined criteria were met. Among participants receiving PCV-free HRV and HRV, 79.27% and 81.76% seroconverted and geometric mean concentrations were 159.5 and 152.8 U/mL, respectively. The incidences of adverse events and serious adverse events were similar between the pooled PCV-free HRV and HRV groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The 3 PCV-free HRV lots demonstrated consistency and PCV-free HRV was non-inferior compared to HRV in terms of immunogenicity.

How to assess for the full economic value of vaccines? From past to present, drawing lessons for the future

Background:Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is the economic analysis method most commonly applied today in the context of replacing one treatment with a new one in a developed healthcare system to improve efficiency. CEA is often requested by local healthcare decision-makers to grant reimbursement. New preventative interventions, such as new vaccines, may however have much wider benefits inside and outside healthcare, when compared with treatment. These additional benefits include externalities on indirect clinical impact, reallocation of specific healthcare resources, improved quality of care, better productivity, better disease control, better fiscal revenues, and others. But these effects are sometimes difficult to integrate into a meaningful CEA result. They may appear as specific benefits for specific stakeholders, other than the stakeholders in healthcare. Objective: Based on a historical view about the application of economic assessments for vaccines our objective has been to make the inventory of who was/is interested in knowing the economic value of vaccines, in what those different stakeholders are likely to see the benefit from their perspective and how  were/are we able to measure those benefits and to report them well. Results: The historical view disclosed a limited interest in the economic assessment of vaccines at start, more than 50 years ago, that was comparable to the assessment of looking for more efficiency in new industries through optimization exercises. Today, we are exposed to a very rich panoply of different stakeholders (n= 16). They have their specific interest in many different facets of the vaccine benefit of which some are well known in the conventional economic analysis (n=9), but most outcomes are hidden and not enough evaluated and reported (n=26). Meanwhile we discovered that many different methods of evaluation have been explored to facilitate the measurement and reporting of the benefits (n=18). Conclusion: Our recommendation for future economic evaluations of new vaccines is therefore to find the right combination among the three entities of stakeholder type selection, outcome measure of interest for each stakeholder, and the right method to apply. We present at the end examples that illustrate how successful this approach can be.

Has Gavi lived up to its promise? Quasi-experimental evidence on country immunisation rates and child mortality

Introduction

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, was set up in 2000 to improve access to vaccines for children living in the poorest countries. Funding has increased significantly over time, with Gavi disbursements reaching US $1.58 billion in 2015. We assess whether Gavi’s funding programmes have indeed increased immunisation coverage in 51 recipient countries for two key vaccines for 12–23 month olds: combined diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) and measles. Additionally, we look at effects on infant and child mortality.

Methods

Taking a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental approach to observational data, we estimate the impact of Gavi eligibility on immunisation coverage and mortality rates over time, using WHO/UNICEF figures covering 1995–2016. We control for economy size and population of each country as well as running a suite of robustness checks and sensitivity tests.

Results

We find large and significant positive effects from Gavi’s funding programmes: on average a 12.02 percentage point increase in DPT immunisation coverage (95% CI 6.56 to 17.49) and an 8.81 percentage point increase in measles immunisation coverage (95% CI 3.58 to 14.04) over the period to 2016. Our estimates show Gavi support also induced 6.22 fewer infant deaths (95% CI −10.47 to −1.97) and 12.23 fewer under-five deaths (95% CI −19.66 to −4.79) per 1000 live births.

Conclusion

Our findings provide evidence that Gavi has had a substantial impact on the fight against communicable diseases for improved population and child health in lower-income countries. In this case, the health policy to verticalise aid—specifically development assistance for health—via a specialised global fund has had positive outcomes.

Do hospital pressures change following rotavirus vaccine introduction? A retrospective database analysis in a large paediatric hospital in the UK

OBJECTIVE

Hospitals in the UK are under increasing clinical and financial pressures. Following introduction of childhood rotavirus vaccination in the UK in 2013, rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) hospitalisations reduced significantly. We evaluated changes in 'hospital pressures' (demand on healthcare resources and staff) following rotavirus vaccine introduction in a paediatric setting in the UK.

DESIGN

Retrospective hospital database analysis between July 2007 and June 2015.

SETTING

A large paediatric hospital providing primary, secondary and tertiary care in Merseyside, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Hospital admissions aged <15 years. Outcomes were calculated for four different patient groups identified through diagnosis coding (International Classification of Disease, 10th edition) and/or laboratory confirmation: all admissions; any infection, acute gastroenteritis and RVGE.

METHODS

Hospital pressures were compared before and after rotavirus vaccine introduction: these included bed occupancy, hospital-acquired infection rate, unplanned readmission rate and outlier rate (medical patients admitted to surgical wards due to lack of medical beds). Interrupted time-series analysis was used to evaluate changes in bed occupancy.

RESULTS

There were 116 871 admissions during the study period. Lower bed occupancy in the rotavirus season in the postvaccination period was observed for RVGE (-89%, 95% CI 73% to 95%), acute gastroenteritis (-63%, 95% CI 39% to 78%) and any infection (-23%, 95% CI 15% to 31%). No significant overall reduction in bed occupancy was observed (-4%, 95% CI -1% to 9%). No changes were observed for the other outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Rotavirus vaccine introduction was not associated with reduced hospital pressures. A reduction in RVGE hospitalisation without change in overall bed occupancy suggests that beds available were used for a different patient population, possibly reflecting a previously unmet need.

TRIALS REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03271593.

A review of recommendations for rotavirus vaccination in Europe: Arguments for change

BACKGROUND

More than 10 years after the authorisation of two rotavirus vaccines of demonstrated efficacy and with a strongly positive benefit-risk profile, uptake in Europe remains low. Only 13 countries in Europe provide a fully-funded rotavirus universal mass vaccination (UMV) programme, three provide a partially-funded programme, and one provides full funding for a reduced programme targeting at-risk infants. Around 40% of countries in Europe currently have no existing recommendations for rotavirus vaccine use in children from the national government.

METHODS

We provide an overview of the status of rotavirus vaccine recommendations across Europe and the factors impeding uptake. We consider the evidence for the benefits and risks of vaccination, and argue that cost-effectiveness and cost-saving benefits justify greater access to rotavirus vaccines for infants living in Europe.

RESULTS

Lack of awareness of the direct and indirect burden caused by rotavirus disease, potential cost-saving from rotavirus vaccination including considerable benefits to children, families and society, and government/insurer cost constraints all contribute to complacency at different levels of health policy in individual countries.

CONCLUSIONS

More than 10 years after their introduction, available data confirm the benefits and acceptable safety profile of infant rotavirus UMV programmes. Europe serves to gain considerably from rotavirus UMV in terms of reductions in healthcare resource utilization and related costs in both vaccinated subjects and their unvaccinated siblings through herd protection.

Improving the Hospital Quality of Care during Winter Periods by Optimizing Budget Allocation Between Rotavirus Vaccination and Bed Expansion

BACKGROUND

During each winter the hospital quality of care (QoC) in pediatric wards decreases due to a surge in pediatric infectious diseases leading to overcrowded units. Bed occupancy rates often surpass the good hospital bed management threshold of 85%, which can result in poor conditions in the workplace. This study explores how QoC-scores could be improved by investing in additional beds and/or better vaccination programs against vaccine-preventable infectious diseases.

METHODS

The Cobb-Douglas model was selected to define the improvement in QoC (%) as a function of two strategies (rotavirus vaccination coverage [%] and addition of extra hospital beds [% of existing beds]), allowing improvement-isocurves to be produced. Subsequently, budget minimization was applied to determine the combination of the two strategies needed to reach a given QoC improvement at the lowest cost. Data from Jessa Hospital (Hasselt, Belgium) were chosen as an example. The annual population in the catchment area to be vaccinated was 7000 children; the winter period was 90 days with 34 pediatric beds available. Rotavirus vaccination cost per course was €118.26 and the daily cost of a pediatric bed was €436.53. The target QoC increase was fixed at 50%. The model was first built with baseline parameter values.

RESULTS

The model predicted that a combination of 64% vaccine coverage and 39% extra hospital beds (≈ 13 extra beds) in winter would improve QoC-scores by 50% for the minimum budget allocation.

CONCLUSION

The model allows determination of the most efficient allocation of the healthcare budget between rotavirus vaccination and bed expansion for improving QoC-scores during the annual epidemic winter seasons.

3. How comprehensive can we be in the economic assessment of vaccines?

In two previous papers we argued on current vaccines economic assessment not fully comprehensive when using the incremental cost-utility analysis normally applied for treatments. Many differences exist between vaccines and drug treatments making vaccines economic evaluation more cumbersome. Four challenges overwhelmingly present in vaccines assessment are less important for treatments: requirements for population, societal perspectives, budget impact evaluation, and time focused objectives (control or elimination). Based on this, economic analysis of vaccines may need to be presented to many different stakeholders with various evaluation preferences, in addition to the current stakeholders involved for drugs treatment assessment. Then, we may need a tool making the inventory of the different vaccines health economic assessment programmes more comprehensive. The cauliflower value toolbox has been developed with that aim, and its use is illustrated here with rotavirus vaccine. Given the broader perspectives for vaccine assessment, it provides better value and cost evaluations. Cost-benefit analysis may be the preferred economic assessment method when considering substitution from treatment to active medical prevention. Other economic evaluation methods can be selected (i.e. optimisation modelling, return on investment) when project prioritisation is the main focus considered and when stakeholders would like to influence the development of the healthcare programme.

Towards a more comprehensive approach for a total economic assessment of vaccines?: 1. The building blocks for a health economic assessment of vaccination

​Since we were born, we all take preventative actions to avoid unpredictable adverse conditions. Some actions are done automatically. Others require a conscious choice , either for personal or social benefit. A distinction can therefore be drawn between non-active and active prevention, and between individual and social prevention. Active prevention requires making a choice in time, effort, and cost. We call it an economic choice. Vaccines belong to the group of active and social prevention. Because a vaccination program is an economic social choice, how should it be valued, and what cost should we pay for? To date, the economic evaluations developed for treatment have been applied to vaccines. However, over 25 different characteristics differentiate vaccines from treatment. For example, the benefit of vaccination is measured at the population level not at the individual level, the main effect of prevention is societal and not an individual-based gain only, and the biggest hurdle to implement a new vaccine is the initial budget investment and not so much its estimated 'value for money'. This makes the current application of incremental cost-utility analysis difficult for vaccines for a comprehensive evaluation. New approaches may be needed to capture the full economic benefit of vaccines.​.

2. How is the economic assessment of vaccines performed today?

This paper describes how the economic assessment of vaccines is performed today. It discusses why it may be incomplete and explores potential approaches to adjust the analysis to be more comprehensive. Besides helping protect against serious disease, vaccines also help avoid mild disease episodes that may not receive medical attention but which have important societal consequences. They also benefit unvaccinated individuals by reducing disease transmission. Wider societal benefits may extend beyond a decrease in disease incidence, as lower transmission rates reduce the risk of epidemics, which in turn reduces the pressure on healthcare providers, and may improve the quality of care for patients with unrelated diseases. Vaccines also lower the use of antibiotics leading to less pressure on anti-microbial resistance. Conventional ICUA focuses on individual health benefits, like increased survival. Therefore, this approach may not adequately capture the wider vaccination benefits. We discuss differences between treatment and vaccine prevention in the economic assessment, and how ICUA has been adapted to cope with the inconsistencies. Although such adaptations may fulfil the demand of one specific stakeholder, they may not meet the needs of other stakeholders who operate at the societal level, such as ministries other than healthcare, employers, caregivers, and insurers.

The Sustained Rotavirus Vaccination Impact on Nosocomial Infection, Duration of Hospital Stay, and Age: The RotaBIS Study (2005-2012)

Introduction

The benefits of rotavirus (RV) vaccination in developed countries have focused on reductions in mortality, hospitalization and medical visits, and herd protection. We investigated other aspects related to RV-induced nosocomial infection, duration of hospital stay, age shift, and sustained vaccine impact (VI) over time.

Method

RotaBIS (Rotavirus Belgian Impact Study; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT01563146) annually collects retrospective data on hospitalization linked to RV testing in children up to 5 years old from 11 pediatric wards located all over Belgium. Data from 2005 to 2012 have been split in pre- (2005–2006) and post-vaccination (2007–2012) period. Information was collected on age, gender, RV test result, nosocomial infection caused by RV and duration of hospital stay.

Results

Over the 6-year period after the introduction of the RV vaccine, an 85% reduction in nosocomial infections was observed (221 in 2005 to 33 in 2012, p < 0.001). A significant reduction of almost 2 days in average duration of hospital stay per event was observed overall (7.62 days in 2005 to 5.77 days in 2012, p < 0.001). The difference is mainly explained by the higher reduction in number of nosocomial infections. A pronounced age shift (+24%, p < 0.01) of RV nosocomial infection to infants ≤2 months old was observed, increasing with length of post-vaccination period. VI was maintained over the follow-up (±79% VI per birth cohort). A decrease was seen depending on age, 85% (95% CI 76–91%) in the youngest to 63% (95% CI 22–92%) in the oldest age group.

Conclusion

The higher reduction in nosocomial infection may affect the overall average duration of hospital stay for RV infection. No change in VI by birth cohort, but a reduction by age group was observed. These findings could be important for decision-makers considering the introduction of universal mass RV vaccination programs.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT01563146.

Funding

GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA (Rixensart, Belgium).

The intangible benefits of vaccination - what is the true economic value of vaccination?

Previous economic evaluations of new vaccines largely focussed on a narrow set of benefit categories, including primarily health gains and disease-related medical cost-savings, which probably resulted in underestimates of the true value of these vaccines. Other economic benefits of vaccines could be considered to assess the full economic value of vaccination, such as, for example, impact of the human papillomavirus vaccine on women's fertility through the decrease in precancerous lesions and, therefore, in the number of diagnostic and treatment interventions, which can be associated with an increased risk of subsequent pregnancy complications. Vaccines' impact on resource allocation at hospital level or on antimicrobial resistance, such as pneumococcal conjugate vaccines that have substantially reduced infections due to antimicrobial non-susceptible strains, thereby rendering the residual disease easier to treat, are other examples of intangible benefits of vaccination. These benefits are generally not considered in economic evaluations because they may not be immediately visible and are difficult to quantify. However, they should be taken into consideration in health technology assessments to enable those responsible for healthcare policies to make well-informed decisions on vaccination.