Modeling cumulative overall prevention efficacy for the VRC01 phase 2b efficacy trials

Application of the SLAPNAP statistical learning tool to broadly neutralizing antibody HIV prevention research

Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) regimens are in clinical development for HIV prevention, necessitating additional knowledge of bnAb neutralization potency/breadth against circulating viruses. Williamson et al. (2021) described a software tool, Super LeArner Prediction of NAb Panels (SLAPNAP), with application to any HIV bnAb regimen with sufficient neutralization data against a set of viruses in the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Compile, Neutralize, and Tally Nab Panels repository. SLAPNAP produces a proteomic antibody resistance (PAR) score for Env sequences based on predicted neutralization resistance and estimates variable importance of Env amino acid features. We apply SLAPNAP to compare HIV bnAb regimens undergoing clinical testing, finding improved power for downstream sieve analyses and increased precision for comparing neutralization potency/breadth of bnAb regimens due to the inclusion of PAR scores of Env sequences with much larger sample sizes available than for neutralization outcomes. SLAPNAP substantially improves bnAb regimen characterization, ranking, and down-selection.

Broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies for HIV prevention

Introduction

The last 12 years have seen remarkable progress in the isolation and characterization of at least five different epitope classes of HIV‐specific broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs). Detailed analyses of these bnAb lineages, maturation pathways and epitopes have created new opportunities for vaccine development. In addition, interest exists in passive administration of monoclonal antibodies as a viable option for HIV prevention.

Discussion

Recently, two antibody‐mediated prevention (AMP) trials of a passively administered monoclonal antibody targeting the HIV envelope CD4 binding site, called VRC01, provided proof‐of‐concept that monoclonal antibody infusion could offer protection against HIV acquisition. While the trials failed to show overall protection against HIV acquisition, sub‐analyses revealed that VRC01 infusion provided a 75% prevention efficacy against HIV strains that were susceptible to the antibody. The study also demonstrated that in vitro neutralizing activity, measured by the TZM‐bl/pseudovirus assay, was able to predict HIV prevention efficacy in humans. In addition, the AMP trials defined a threshold protective concentration, or neutralization titer, for the VRC01 class of bnAbs, explaining the observed low overall efficacy and serving as a benchmark for the clinical testing of new bnAbs, bnAb cocktails and neutralizing antibody‐inducing vaccines. Newer bnAbs that exhibit greater potency and breadth of neutralization in vitro than VRC01 are available for clinical testing. Combinations of best‐in‐class bnAbs with complementary magnitude, breadth and extent of complete neutralization are predicted to far exceed the prevention efficacy of VRC01. Some engineered bi‐ and trispecific mAbs exhibit similar desirable neutralizing activity and afford advantages for manufacturing and delivery. Modifications that prolong the serum half‐life and improve genital tissue persistence offer additional advantages.

Conclusions

Iterative phase 1 trials are acquiring safety and pharmacokinetic data on dual and triple bnAbs and bi‐ and trispecific antibodies in preparation for future AMP studies that seek to translate findings from the VRC01 efficacy trials and achieve acceptable levels of overall prevention efficacy.

Clinical Trials of Broadly Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention: A Review

Passive immunization with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) is a promising approach to reduce the 1.7 million annual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections globally. Early studies on bnAbs showed safety in humans, but short elimination half-lives and low potency and breadth. Since 2010, several new highly potent bnAbs have been assessed in clinical trials alone or in combination for HIV prevention. Published data indicate that these bnAbs are safe and have a half-life ranging from 15 to 71 days. Only intravenous VRC01 has advanced to an efficacy trial, with results expected in late 2020. If bnAbs are shown to be effective in preventing HIV infection, they could fast-track vaccine development as correlates of protection, and contribute as passive immunization to achieving the goal of epidemic control. The purpose of the current review is to describe the current status and provide a synopsis of the available data on bnAbs in clinical trials for HIV prevention.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies for the treatment and prevention of HIV infection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Several anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) with exceptional breadth and potency, and targeting different HIV-1 envelope epitopes have entered clinical trials. bNAbs are being evaluated for their potential as long-acting alternatives to antiretrovirals in HIV-1 prevention and therapy, and for potential role in strategies aiming at long-term viral remission. Here, we discuss recent findings from bNAb clinical studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

bNAbs targeting distinct HIV-1 envelope epitopes have shown, in general, favorable safety profiles, and engineered bNAb variants have demonstrated improved pharmacokinetics. Single bNAb infusions transiently decreased viremia with subsequent selection of escape variants, while a combination of two bNAbs successfully maintained viral suppression in individuals harboring antibody-sensitive viruses after antiretroviral therapy (ART) was discontinued. Studies in animal models suggest that bNAbs can modulate immune responses and potentially interfere with the establishment or composition of the latent reservoir, and ongoing clinical studies aim to assess potential bNAb-mediated effects on HIV-1 persistence and host immune responses.

SUMMARY

Early clinical studies support additional evaluation of bNAbs. Antibodies may offer advantages over standard ART for HIV-1 prevention and therapy, and as components of immunologic strategies to achieve sustained virologic control. The evaluation of engineered bNAbs with multispecificity, extended half-lives and increased potency, as well as alternative bNAb-delivery systems are being pursued.

Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model

Clinical trials for HIV prevention can require knowledge of infection times to subsequently determine protective drug levels. Yet, infection timing is difficult when study visits are sparse. Using population nonlinear mixed-effects (pNLME) statistical inference and viral loads from 46 RV217 study participants, we developed a relatively simple HIV primary infection model that achieved an excellent fit to all data. We also discovered that Aptima assay values from the study strongly correlated with viral loads, enabling imputation of very early viral loads for 28/46 participants. Estimated times between infecting exposures and first positives were generally longer than prior estimates (average of two weeks) and were robust to missing viral upslope data. On simulated data, we found that tighter sampling before diagnosis improved estimation more than tighter sampling after diagnosis. Sampling weekly before and monthly after diagnosis was a pragmatic design for good timing accuracy. Our pNLME timing approach is widely applicable to other infections with existing mathematical models. The present model could be used to simulate future HIV trials and may help estimate protective thresholds from the recently completed antibody-mediated prevention trials.

Patient-Focused Selection of PrEP Medication for Individuals at Risk of HIV: A Narrative Review

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) medication is a key component of the HIV prevention strategy in the US, which has been demonstrated to be highly effective in preventing HIV acquisition among individuals at risk. Two PrEP medications are currently approved: emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (Truvada®; F/TDF) was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2012, followed by emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (Descovy®; F/TAF) in 2019. An ongoing randomized, double-blind, Phase 3 study (DISCOVER) demonstrated that F/TAF had non-inferior efficacy to F/TDF. While both medications have been found to be efficacious and well tolerated, several studies have identified that important differences exist with regards to pharmacokinetics, bone and renal safety profiles, and other factors. In this narrative review, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the populations at risk of HIV who may also be affected by, or at risk of, bone or renal conditions. We reviewed the safety profiles of F/TDF and F/TAF to develop an evidence-based algorithm for selecting the appropriate PrEP medication, based on biological, behavioral, and health characteristics of an individual at risk of HIV, and considered how the choice of PrEP medication may or may not compound safety concerns for these individuals. We identified that the introduction of F/TAF provides a valuable alternative to F/TDF, allowing the personalization of PrEP. F/TAF may be the preferred medication for cisgender men and transgender women at risk of HIV infection who are predisposed to, or already have, bone or renal conditions. While the approval of F/TAF is the first step in personalization of PrEP, additional options are still warranted to help accommodate the wide spectrum of individuals at risk of HIV with different lifestyles, medical histories, preferences, and requirements.

Anti-HIV-1 Antibodies: An Update

Even after more than 30 years since its discovery, there is no cure for HIV-1 infection. Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is currently the only HIV-1 infection management option in clinics. Despite its success in suppressing viral replication and converting HIV-1 from a lethal infection to a chronic and manageable disease, cART treatment is life long and long-term use can result in major drawbacks such as high cost, multiple side effects, and an increase in the development of multidrug-resistant escape mutants. Recently, antibody-based anti-HIV-1 treatment has emerged as a potential alternative therapeutic modality for HIV-1 treatment and cure strategies. These antibody-based anti-HIV-1 treatments comprising either receptor-targeting antibodies or broad neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are currently being developed and evaluated in clinical trials. These antibodies have demonstrated potent antiviral effects against multiple strains of HIV-1, and shown promise for prevention, maintenance, and prolonged remission of HIV-1 infection. This review gives an update on the current status of these antibody-based treatments for HIV-1, discusses their mechanism of action and the challenges in developing them, providing insight for their development as novel clinical therapies against HIV-1 infection.

Pre-existing resistance in the latent reservoir can compromise VRC01 therapy during chronic HIV-1 infection

Passive immunization with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) of HIV-1 appears a promising strategy for eliciting long-term HIV-1 remission. When administered concomitantly with the cessation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to patients with established viremic control, bNAb therapy is expected to prolong remission. Surprisingly, in clinical trials on chronic HIV-1 patients, the bNAb VRC01 failed to prolong remission substantially. Identifying the cause of this failure is important for improving VRC01-based therapies and unraveling potential vulnerabilities of other bNAbs. In the trials, viremia resurged rapidly in most patients despite suppressive VRC01 concentrations in circulation, suggesting that VRC01 resistance was the likely cause of failure. ART swiftly halts viral replication, precluding the development of resistance during ART. If resistance were to emerge post ART, virological breakthrough would have taken longer than without VRC01 therapy. We hypothesized therefore that VRC01-resistant strains must have been formed before ART initiation, survived ART in latently infected cells, and been activated during VRC01 therapy, causing treatment failure. Current assays preclude testing this hypothesis experimentally. We developed a mathematical model based on the hypothesis and challenged it with available clinical data. The model integrated within-host HIV-1 evolution, stochastic latency reactivation, and viral dynamics with multiple-dose VRC01 pharmacokinetics. The model predicted that single but not higher VRC01-resistant mutants would pre-exist in the latent reservoir. We constructed a virtual patient population that parsimoniously recapitulated inter-patient variations. Model predictions with this population quantitatively captured data of VRC01 failure from clinical trials, presenting strong evidence supporting the hypothesis. We attributed VRC01 failure to single-mutant VRC01-resistant proviruses in the latent reservoir triggering viral recrudescence, particularly when VRC01 was at trough levels. Pre-existing resistant proviruses in the latent reservoir may similarly compromise other bNAbs. Our study provides a framework for designing bNAb-based therapeutic protocols that would avert such failure and maximize HIV-1 remission.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can control but not eradicate HIV-1. Stopping ART leads to rapid viral resurgence and progressive disease. ART is therefore administered lifelong. Tremendous efforts are ongoing to devise strategies that will enable stopping ART and yet prevent viral resurgence. One such strategy involves the administration of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) of HIV-1 at the time of stopping ART. This strategy is expected to delay if not prevent viral resurgence. Surprisingly, treatment with VRC01, a potent bNAb, resulted in hardly any improvement in viral remission. In this study, we elucidate the cause of this failure. We hypothesized that VRC01-resistant strains may pre-exist in latently infected cells, which are unaffected by ART. They can thus outlast ART and get reactivated, triggering VRC01 failure. We built a detailed mathematical model based on this hypothesis and showed that it quantitatively captured observations of VRC01 failure in clinical trials on chronic HIV-1 patients. Our study thus identifies a potential vulnerability of bNAbs, namely, bNAb-resistant strains pre-existing in latently infected cells. Our model offers a framework for predicting bNAb-based treatment protocols that would preclude failure due to pre-existing resistance and maximally prolong remission.

HIV-1 antibodies in prevention of transmission

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To present the data that suggest that antibodies to HIV may prevent HIV-1 infection.

RECENT FINDINGS

Many human monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have been isolated over the last decade. Numerous experiments of passive immunization in nonhuman primate models have allowed to accumulate strong evidences that bnAbs, opposed to nonneutralizing antibodies, are the best candidates to prevent HIV-1 infection. bnAbs counteract HIV-1 by both blocking the virus at the portal of entry and clearing rapidly viral foci established at distance after dissemination of the virus following infection. Cocktails of bnAbs or modified bi/trispecific antibodies will be necessary to counter the large and evolving antigenic diversity of the HIV-1 species. Two large multicenter phase IIb clinical trials have been initiated. Even if they are not conducted with the most recent and most potent bnAb, the results which are expected in 2022 will inform us on the real potency of bnAbs at preventing HIV-1 acquisition in the real life.

SUMMARY

If these trials demonstrate the efficacy of bnAbs, they will open the trail toward new strategies for preexposure prophylaxis, eventually postexposure prophylaxis and prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 μg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

Infusions of broadly neutralizing antibodies are currently being tested as a novel HIV prevention modality. To help interpret the results of these antibody mediated prevention (AMP) studies we developed a mathematical modeling framework. The approach combines antibody potency and drug levels with models of HIV viral dynamics, which will be generally applicable to future studies. Through simulating these clinical trials, we found trial outcomes can be used in combination to infer whether breakthrough infections are caused by large fractions of antibody-resistant circulating strains or some reduction in potency against all strains. This distinction helps to focus future trials on enhancing neutralizing antibody breadth or antibody delivery and/or in vivo binding.

A Meta-analysis of Passive Immunization Studies Shows that Serum-Neutralizing Antibody Titer Associates with Protection against SHIV Challenge

Passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) have been shown to protect non-human primates (NHPs) against chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) infection. With data from multiple non-human primate SHIV challenge studies that used single bNAbs, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between predicted serum 50% neutralization titer (ID50) against the challenge virus and infection outcome. In a logistic model that adjusts for bNAb epitopes and challenge viruses, serum ID50 had a highly significant effect on infection risk (p < 0.001). The estimated ID50 to achieve 50%, 75%, and 95% protection was 91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 55, 153), 219 (117, 410), and 685 (319, 1471), respectively. This analysis indicates that serum neutralizing titer against the relevant virus is a key parameter of protection and that protection from acquisition by a single bNAb might require substantial levels of neutralization at the time of exposure.

Structural Vaccinology for Viral Vaccine Design

Although vaccines have proven pivotal against arrays of infectious viral diseases, there are still no effective vaccines against many viruses. New structural insights into the viral envelope, protein conformation, and antigenic epitopes can guide the design of novel vaccines against challenging viruses such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus, enterovirus A71, and dengue virus. Recent studies demonstrated that applications of this structural information can solve some of the vaccine conundrums. This review focuses on recent advances in structure-based vaccine design, or structural vaccinology, for novel and innovative viral vaccine design.

Broadly neutralizing anti-HIV-1 monoclonal antibodies in the clinic

Combination anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has revolutionized the treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infection. Taken daily, ART prevents and suppresses the infection. However, ART interruption almost invariably leads to rebound viremia in infected individuals due to a long-lived latent reservoir of integrated proviruses. Therefore, ART must be administered on a life-long basis. Here we review recent preclinical and clinical studies suggesting that immunotherapy may be an alternative or an adjuvant to ART because, in addition to preventing new infections, anti-HIV-1 antibodies clear the virus, directly kill infected cells and produce immune complexes that can enhance host immunity to the virus.

Novel Strategies for Malaria Vaccine Design

The quest for a licensed effective vaccine against malaria remains a global priority. Even though classical vaccine design strategies have been successful for some viral and bacterial pathogens, little success has been achieved for Plasmodium falciparum, which causes the deadliest form of malaria due to its diversity and ability to evade host immune responses. Nevertheless, recent advances in vaccinology through high throughput discovery of immune correlates of protection, lymphocyte repertoire sequencing and structural design of immunogens, provide a comprehensive approach to identifying and designing a highly efficacious vaccine for malaria. In this review, we discuss novel vaccine approaches that can be employed in malaria vaccine design.

Antibodies and Antibody Derivatives: New Partners in HIV Eradication Strategies

Promptly after primoinfection, HIV generates a pool of infected cells carrying transcriptionally silent integrated proviral DNA, the HIV-1 reservoir. These cells are not cleared by combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), and persist lifelong in treated HIV-infected individuals. Defining clinical strategies to eradicate the HIV reservoir and cure HIV-infected individuals is a major research field that requires a deep understanding of the mechanisms of seeding, maintenance and destruction of latently infected cells. Although CTL responses have been classically associated with the control of HIV replication, and hence with the size of HIV reservoir, broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) have emerged as new players in HIV cure strategies. Several reasons support this potential role: (i) over the last years a number of bNAbs with high potency and ability to cope with the extreme variability of HIV have been identified; (ii) antibodies not only block HIV replication but mediate effector functions that may contribute to the removal of infected cells and to boost immune responses against HIV; (iii) a series of new technologies have allowed for the in vitro design of improved antibodies with increased antiviral and effector functions. Recent studies in non-human primate models and in HIV-infected individuals have shown that treatment with recombinant bNAbs isolated from HIV-infected individuals is safe and may have a beneficial effect both on the seeding of the HIV reservoir and on the inhibition of HIV replication. These promising data and the development of antibody technology have paved the way for treating HIV infection with engineered monoclonal antibodies with high potency of neutralization, wide coverage of HIV diversity, extended plasma half-life in vivo and improved effector functions. The exciting effects of these newly designed antibodies in vivo, either alone or in combination with other cure strategies (latency reversing agents or therapeutic vaccines), open a new hope in HIV eradication.