Outbreak of paralytic poliomyelitis in Albania, 1996: high attack rate among adults and apparent interruption of transmission following nationwide mass vaccination

PREVALENCE OF NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODIES AGAINST POLIOVIRUS 1, 2, AND 3 IN HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS AGED 20-50 YEARS

Objective:

To describe the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies against poliovirus (PV1, PV2, and PV3) in blood samples of healthcare professionals aged 20 to 50 years.

Methods:

Health professionals who serve children at Darcy Vargas Children’s Hospital and the Department of Pediatrics of Irmandade da Santa Casa de São Paulo. The sample size was calculated at 323 participants. The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square was used to verify differences between groups. The neutralization reaction detected human poliovirus antibodies. For susceptible individuals, vaccination with the inactivated+triple acellular polio vaccine was performed, and neutralizing antibodies were re-dosed after one week.

Results:

333 professionals were studied - 92.8% were immune to poliovirus 1, 86.5% to poliovirus 2, and 63.3% to poliovirus 3; 37% had titers less than 1:8 for any serotype, 5;1% had titers below 1:8 for all three. Vaccination with inactivated polio vaccine was performed for susceptible participants, and neutralizing antibodies were dosed after one week, showing increased titers for all polioviruses.

Conclusions:

Despite the detection of a significant percentage of individuals with low poliovirus antibody titer, the challenge with vaccination demonstrated immune response compatible with poliovirus immunity.

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination

Objectives

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission.

Methods

This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy.

Results

Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels.

Conclusion

Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Lessons learnt to keep Europe polio-free: a review of outbreaks in the European Union, European Economic Area, and candidate countries, 1973 to 2013

Between 1973 and 2013, 12 outbreaks of paralytic poliomyelitis with a cumulative total of 660 cases were reported in the European Union, European Economic Area and candidate countries. Outbreaks lasted seven to 90 weeks (median: 24 weeks) and were identified through the diagnosis of cases of acute flaccid paralysis, for which infection with wild poliovirus was subsequently identified. In two countries, environmental surveillance was in place before the outbreaks, but did not detect any wild strain before the occurrence of clinical cases. This surveillance nonetheless provided useful information to monitor the outbreaks and their geographical spread. Outbreaks were predominantly caused by poliovirus type 1 and typically involved unvaccinated or inadequately vaccinated groups within highly immunised communities. Oral polio vaccine was primarily used to respond to the outbreaks with catch-up campaigns implemented either nationwide or in restricted geographical areas or age groups. The introduction of supplementary immunisation contained the outbreaks. In 2002, the European region of the World Health Organization was declared polio-free and it has maintained this status since. However, as long as there are non-vaccinated or under-vaccinated groups in European countries and poliomyelitis is not eradicated, countries remain continuously at risk of reintroduction and establishment of the virus. Continued efforts to reach these groups are needed in order to ensure a uniform and high vaccination coverage.

Immunity to polio, measles and rubella in women of child-bearing age and estimated congenital rubella syndrome incidence, Cambodia, 2012

Significant gaps in immunity to polio, measles, and rubella may exist in adults in Cambodia and threaten vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) elimination and control goals, despite high childhood vaccination coverage. We conducted a nationwide serological survey during November-December 2012 of 2154 women aged 15-39 years to assess immunity to polio, measles, and rubella and to estimate congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence. Measles and rubella antibodies were detected by IgG ELISA and polio antibodies by microneutralization testing. Age-structured catalytic models were fitted to rubella serological data to predict CRS cases. Overall, 29.8% of women lacked immunity to at least one poliovirus (PV); seroprevalence to PV1, PV2 and PV3 was 85.9%, 93.4% and 83.3%, respectively. Rubella and measles antibody seroprevalence was 73.3% and 95.9%, respectively. In the 15-19 years age group, 48.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 42.4-54.1] were susceptible to either PV1 or PV3, and 40.3% (95% CI 33.0-47.5) to rubella virus. Based on rubella antibody seroprevalence, we estimate that >600 infants are born with CRS in Cambodia annually. Significant numbers of Cambodian women are still susceptible to polio and rubella, especially those aged 15-19 years, emphasizing the need to include adults in VPD surveillance and a potential role for vaccination strategies targeted at adults.

An outbreak following importation of wild poliovirus in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, 2011

Background

After more than 10 years without a case of wild poliovirus (WPV) in China, an outbreak occurred in 2011 in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

Methods

Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) case surveillance was strengthened with epidemiological investigations and specimen collection and serological surveys were conducted among hospitalized patients.

Results

There were 21 WPV cases and 23 clinical compatible polio cases reported. WPV was isolated from 14 contacts of AFP cases and 13 in the healthy population. Incidence of WPV and clinical compatible polio cases were both highest among children <1 years, however, 24/44 (54.5%) polio cases were reported among adults aged 15–39 years.

Conclusions

High coverage of routine immunization should be maintained among children until WPV transmission is globally eradicated. Expansion of AFP case surveillance and use of serologic surveys to estimate population immunity should be conducted rapidly to guide preparedness and response planning for future WPV outbreaks.

Factors contributing to outbreaks of wild poliovirus type 1 infection involving persons aged ≥15 years in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2010-2011, informed by a pre-outbreak poliovirus immunity assessment

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) experienced atypical outbreaks of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) infection during 2010-2011 in that they affected persons aged ≥15 years in 4 (Bandundu, Bas Congo, Kasaï Occidental, and Kinshasa provinces) of the 6 provinces with outbreaks.

METHODS

Analyses of cases of WPV1 infection with onset during 2010-2011 by province, age, polio vaccination status, and sex were conducted. The prevalence of antibodies to poliovirus (PV) types 1, 2, and 3 was assessed in sera collected before the outbreaks from women attending antenatal clinics in 3 of the 4 above-mentioned provinces.

RESULTS

Of 193 cases of WPV1 infection during 2010-2011, 32 (17%) occurred in individuals aged ≥15 years. Of these 32 cases, 31 (97%) occurred in individuals aged 16-29 years; 9 (28%) were notified in Bandundu, 17 (53%) were notified in Kinshasa, and 22 (69%) had an unknown polio vaccination status. In the seroprevalence assessment, PV type 1 and 3 seroprevalence was lower among women aged 15-29 years in Bandundu and Kinshasa, compared with those in Kasaï Occidental. Seropositivity to PVs was associated with increasing age, more pregnancies, and a younger age at first pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

This spatiotemporal analysis strongly suggests that the 2010-2011 outbreaks of WPV1 infection affecting young adults were caused by a PV type 1 immunity gap in Kinshasa and Bandundu due to insufficient exposure to PV type 1 through natural infection or vaccination. Poliovirus immunity gaps in this age group likely persist in DRC.

Outbreak of type 1 wild poliovirus infection in adults, Namibia, 2006

A paralytic poliomyelitis outbreak occurred in Namibia in 2006, almost exclusively among adults. Nineteen cases were virologically confirmed as due to wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1), and 26 were classified as polio compatible. Eleven deaths occurred among confirmed and compatible cases (24%). Of the confirmed cases, 97% were aged 15-45 years, 89% were male, and 71% lived in settlement areas in Windhoek. The virus was genetically related to a virus detected in 2005 in Angola, which had been imported earlier from India. The outbreak is likely due to immunity gaps among adults who were inadequately vaccinated during childhood. This outbreak underscores the ongoing risks posed by poliovirus importations, the importance of maintaining strong acute flaccid paralysis surveillance even in adults, and the need to maintain high population immunity to avoid polio outbreaks in the preeradication period and outbreaks due to vaccine-derived polioviruses in the posteradication era.

Robustness against serum neutralization of a poliovirus type 1 from a lethal epidemic of poliomyelitis in the Republic of Congo in 2010

In 2010, a large outbreak of poliomyelitis with unusual 47% lethality occurred in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo. Vaccine-mediated immunity against the outbreak virus was never investigated. A wild poliovirus 1 (WPV1) isolated from a fatal case (termed PV1-RC2010) showed a previously unknown combination of amino acid exchanges in critical antigenic site 2 (AgS2, VP1 capsid protein positions 221SAAL → 221PADL). These exchanges were also detected in an additional 11 WPV1 strains from fatal cases. PV1-RC2010 escaped neutralization by three different mAbs relevant for AgS2. Virus neutralization was tested in sera from fatal cases, who died before supplementary immunization (n = 24), Gabonese recipients of recent oral polio vaccination (n = 12), routinely vaccinated German medical students (n = 34), and German outpatients tested for antipoliovirus immunity (n = 17) on Vero, human rhabdomyosarcoma, and human epidermoid carcinoma 2 cells. Fatal poliomyelitis cases gave laboratory evidence of previous trivalent vaccination. Neutralizing antibody titers against PV1-RC2010 were significantly lower than those against the vaccine strain Sabin-1, two genetically distinct WPV1s isolated in 1965 and 2010 and two genetically distinct vaccine-derived PV strains. Of German vaccinees tested according to World Health Organization protocols, 15-29% were unprotected according to their neutralization titers (<1:8 serum dilution), even though all were protected against Sabin-1. Phylogenetic analysis of the WPV1 outbreak strains suggested a recent introduction of virus progenitors from Asia with formation of separate Angolan and Congolese lineages. Only the latter carried both critical AgS2 mutations. Antigenetically variant PVs may become relevant during the final phase of poliomyelitis eradication in populations with predominantly vaccine-derived immunity. Sustained vaccination coverage and clinical and environmental surveillance will be necessary.

Sero-survey of polio antibodies during wild poliovirus outbreak in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Background

After being polio free for more than 10 years, an outbreak following importation of wild poliovirus (WPV) was confirmed in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, in 2011.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted prior to supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), immediately after the confirmation of the WPV outbreak. In selected prefectures, participants aged ≤60 years old who visited hospitals at county-level or above to have their blood drawn for reasons not related to the study, were invited to participate in our study. Antibody titers ≥8 were considered positive.

Results

Among the 2,611 participants enrolled, 2,253 (86.3%), 2,283 (87.4%), and 1,989 (76.2%) were seropositive to P1, P2 and P3 respectively, and 1744 (66.8%) participants were seropositive to all the three serotypes. Lower antibody seropositivities and geometric mean titers were observed in children <1 year of age and in adults aged 15–39 years.

Conclusion

Serosurveys to estimate population immunity in districts at high risk of polio importation might be useful to gauge underlying population immunity gaps to polio and possibly to guide preparedness and response planning. Consideration should be given to older children and adults during polio risk assessment planning and outbreak response.

Enhanced surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis following importation of wild poliovirus in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Background

After being polio free for more than 10 years, an outbreak occurred in China in 2011 in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) following the importation of wild poliovirus (WPV) originating from neighboring Pakistan.

Methods

To strengthen acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance in Xinjiang, “zero case daily reporting” and retrospective searching of AFP cases were initiated after the confirmation of the WPV outbreak. To pinpoint all the polio cases in time, AFP surveillance system was expanded to include persons of all ages in the entire population in Xinjiang.

Results

Totally, 578 AFP cases were reported in 2011 in Xinjiang, including 21 WPV cases, 23 clinical compatible polio cases and 534 non-polio AFP cases. Of the 44 polio cases, 27 (61.4%) cases were reported among adults aged 15–53 years. Strengthening AFP surveillance resulted in an increase in the number of non-polio AFP cases in 2011 (148 children < 15 years) compared with 76 cases < 15 years in 2010. The AFP surveillance system in Xinjiang was sensitive enough to detect polio cases, with the AFP incidence of 3.28/100,000 among children < 15 years of age.

Conclusions

Incorporating adult cases into the AFP surveillance system is of potential value to understand the overall characteristics of the epidemic and to guide emergency responses, especially in countries facing WPV outbreak following long-term polio free status. The AFP surveillance system in Xinjiang was satisfactory despite limitations in biological sample collection.

The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns

BACKGROUND

Global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses (WPVs) continue to face challenges due to uninterrupted endemic WPV transmission in three countries and importation-related outbreaks into previously polio-free countries. We explore the potential role of including older children and adults in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) to more rapidly increase population immunity and prevent or stop transmission.

METHODS

We use a differential equation-based dynamic poliovirus transmission model to analyze the epidemiological impact and vaccine resource implications of expanding target age groups in SIAs. We explore the use of older age groups in SIAs for three situations: alternative responses to the 2010 outbreak in Tajikistan, retrospective examination of elimination in two high-risk states in northern India, and prospective and retrospective strategies to accelerate elimination in endemic northwestern Nigeria. Our model recognizes the ability of individuals with waned mucosal immunity (i.e., immunity from a historical live poliovirus infection) to become re-infected and contribute to transmission to a limited extent.

RESULTS

SIAs involving expanded age groups reduce overall caseloads, decrease transmission, and generally lead to a small reduction in the time to achieve WPV elimination. Analysis of preventive expanded age group SIAs in Tajikistan or prior to type-specific surges in incidence in high-risk areas of India and Nigeria showed the greatest potential benefits of expanded age groups. Analysis of expanded age group SIAs in outbreak situations or to accelerate the interruption of endemic transmission showed relatively less benefit, largely due to the circulation of WPV reaching individuals sooner or more effectively than the SIAs. The India and Nigeria results depend strongly on how well SIAs involving expanded age groups reach relatively isolated subpopulations that sustain clusters of susceptible children, which we assume play a key role in persistent endemic WPV transmission in these areas.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests the need to carefully consider the epidemiological situation in the context of decisions to use expanded age group SIAs. Subpopulations of susceptible individuals may independently sustain transmission, which will reduce the overall benefits associated with using expanded age group SIAs to increase population immunity to a sufficiently high level to stop transmission and reduce the incidence of paralytic cases.

Identification and control of a poliomyelitis outbreak in Xinjiang, China

BACKGROUND

The last case of infection with wild-type poliovirus indigenous to China was reported in 1994, and China was certified as a poliomyelitis-free region in 2000. In 2011, an outbreak of infection with imported wild-type poliovirus occurred in the province of Xinjiang.

METHODS

We conducted an investigation to guide the response to the outbreak, performed sequence analysis of the poliovirus type 1 capsid protein VP1 to determine the source, and carried out serologic and coverage surveys to assess the risk of viral propagation. Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis was intensified to enhance case ascertainment.

RESULTS

Between July 3 and October 9, 2011, investigators identified 21 cases of infection with wild-type poliovirus and 23 clinically compatible cases in southern Xinjiang. Wild-type poliovirus type 1 was isolated from 14 of 673 contacts of patients with acute flaccid paralysis (2.1%) and from 13 of 491 healthy persons who were not in contact with affected persons (2.6%). Sequence analysis implicated an imported wild-type poliovirus that originated in Pakistan as the cause of the outbreak. A public health emergency was declared in Xinjiang after the outbreak was confirmed. Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis was enhanced, with daily reporting from all public and private hospitals. Five rounds of vaccination with live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) were conducted among children and adults, and 43 million doses of OPV were administered. Trivalent OPV was used in three rounds, and monovalent OPV type 1 was used in two rounds. The outbreak was stopped 1.5 months after laboratory confirmation of the index case.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2011 outbreak in China showed that poliomyelitis-free countries remain at risk for outbreaks while the poliovirus circulates anywhere in the world. Global eradication of poliomyelitis will benefit all countries, even those that are currently free of poliomyelitis.

The potential impact of routine immunization with inactivated poliovirus vaccine on wild-type or vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks in a posteradication setting

The "endgame" for worldwide poliomyelitis eradication will entail eventual cessation of the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in all countries to prevent the reintroduction of vaccine-derived polioviruses--exposing some populations to an unprecedented, albeit low, risk of poliovirus outbreaks. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is likely to play a large part in post--OPV management of poliovirus risks by reducing the consequences of any reintroduction of poliovirus. In this article, we examine the impact IPV would have on an outbreak in a partially susceptible population after OPV cessation, using a mathematical model of poliovirus transmission with a realistic natural history and case reporting. We explore a range of assumptions about the impact of IPV on an individual's infectiousness, given the lack of knowledge about this parameter. We show that routine use of IPV is beneficial under most conditions, increasing the chance of fadeout and reducing the expected prevalence of infection at the time of detection. The duration of "silent" poliovirus circulation prior to detection lengthens with increasing coverage of IPV, although this only increases the expected prevalence of infection at the time of the OPV response if IPV has a very limited impact on infectiousness. Overall, the model predicts that routine use of IPV will be advantageous for the posteradication management of poliovirus.

Population immunity to polioviruses in the context of a large-scale wild poliovirus type 1 outbreak in Tajikistan, 2010

BACKGROUND

A serosurvey to evaluate population immunity to polioviruses (PVs) in the context of the importation-related wild PV1 outbreak in Tajikistan in 2010 (461 confirmed cases among children and young adults) was conducted.

METHODS

Serum specimens from a nationwide sample of 1-24 year-old persons selected through stratified cluster sampling (n=2447) were tested for neutralizing antibodies to all three PV types. Samples with titers<1:8 were considered seronegative. The serosurvey was conducted during the interval after mOPV1 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) and before tOPV SIAs (targeting ages ≤ 15 years) implemented to control the outbreak. In the absence of pre-outbreak specimens, results for PV3 were used as a proxy for pre-outbreak PV1 immunity patterns.

RESULTS

Overall, PV1 seroprevalence was 98.9%, PV2 seroprevalence was 98.8%, and PV3 seroprevalence was 86.9%. PV1 and PV2 seroprevalence exceeded 95% in all age groups and regions. PV3 seroprevalence was <90% in all age groups and regions, except 15-19 year-olds (91.7%) and Dushanbe (90.0%). PV3 seroprevalence was lowest among 1-4 (82.7%) and 5-9 (84.4%) year-olds, particularly among 1-4 year-olds in Kurgan-Tube (76.3%) and RRS (80.0%) regions. Birth cohorts immunized only through routine services (ages, 1-7 years) had lower PV3 seroprevalence than birth cohorts targeted by the SIAs during 1995-2002 (8-19 years): 82.5% versus 89.3%, p<0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Suboptimal (<90%) PV3 seroprevalence across wide age range suggests the outbreak resulted from accumulation of susceptibles due to suboptimal coverage over a long time period, particularly in the birth cohorts immunized only through routine services and in areas where the outbreak began (Kurgan-Tube and RRS). High PV1 seroprevalence indicates that mOPV1 SIAs with expanded target age (≤ 15 years) succeeded in closing the immunity gap and ongoing WPV1 transmission is unlikely. To accelerate outbreak control in areas which have been polio-free for long time, expanding SIA target age should be considered.

Seroprevalence of antipolio antibodies among children <15 years of age in border provinces in China

Despite remarkable progression toward polio eradication worldwide, wild poliovirus (WPV) importation has been a great challenge for China, as it shares borders with countries where WPV is endemic. The objective of this study was to estimate poliovirus antibody seroprevalence among children <15 years of age in 3 border provinces (Yunnan Province, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region) in China. A cross-sectional, hospital-based study was undertaken in 3 border provinces in 2010. Individuals <15 years old who visited hospitals at the prefecture level or above to have their blood drawn for any reason were invited to participate in our study. Neutralizing antibody titers to polio serotypes 1 (P1), P2, and P3 were assayed according to the World Health Organization manual for the virological investigation of polio. Antibody titers of ≥8 were considered positive. Among the 1,360 subjects enrolled, 1,220 (89.7%), 1,259 (92.6%), and 1,112 (81.8%) were seropositive to P1, P2, and P3, respectively, and 1,051 (77.3%) subjects were seropositive to all three serotypes. The highest seropositive rates were observed in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. By age, 3- to 5-year-old subjects had the highest rate of seropositivity, and seropositivity decreased significantly with increasing age. The risk of WPV importation will continue until WPV transmission has been interrupted worldwide. Consistent with the Global Polio Eradication Initiative's polio endgame strategy, China must maintain its polio-free status by ensuring adequate population immunity against polio. Because immunity wanes with increasing age, a booster dose with bivalent type 1 and 2 oral poliovirus vaccine could be considered for teenagers in China.

Characterizing poliovirus transmission and evolution: insights from modeling experiences with wild and vaccine-related polioviruses

With national and global health policymakers facing numerous complex decisions related to achieving and maintaining polio eradication, we expanded our previously developed dynamic poliovirus transmission model using information from an expert literature review process and including additional immunity states and the evolution of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). The model explicitly considers serotype differences and distinguishes fecal-oral and oropharyngeal transmission. We evaluated the model by simulating diverse historical experiences with polioviruses, including one country that eliminated wild poliovirus using both OPV and inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) (USA), three importation outbreaks of wild poliovirus (Albania, the Netherlands, Tajikistan), one situation in which no circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) emerge despite annual OPV use and cessation (Cuba), three cVDPV outbreaks (Haiti, Madura Island in Indonesia, northern Nigeria), one area of current endemic circulation of all three serotypes (northern Nigeria), and one area with recent endemic circulation and subsequent elimination of multiple serotypes (northern India). We find that when sufficient information about the conditions exists, the model can reproduce the general behavior of poliovirus transmission and outbreaks while maintaining consistency in the generic model inputs. The assumption of spatially homogeneous mixing remains a significant limitation that affects the performance of the differential equation-based model when significant heterogeneities in immunity and mixing may exist. Further studies on OPV virus evolution and improved understanding of the mechanisms of mixing and transmission may help to better characterize poliovirus transmission in populations. Broad application of the model promises to offer insights in the context of global and national policy and economic models.

Modeling population immunity to support efforts to end the transmission of live polioviruses

Eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) types 1 and 3, prevention and cessation of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, and achievement and maintenance of a world free of paralytic polio cases requires active risk management by focusing on population immunity and coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). We suggest the need for a complementary and different conceptual approach to achieve eradication compared to the current case-based approach using surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) to identify symptomatic poliovirus infections. Specifically, we describe a modeling approach to characterize overall population immunity to poliovirus transmission. The approach deals with the realities that exposure to live polioviruses (e.g., WPV, OPV) and/or vaccination with inactivated poliovirus vaccine provides protection from paralytic polio (i.e., disease), but does not eliminate the potential for reinfection or asymptomatic participation in poliovirus transmission, which may increase with time because of waning immunity. The AFP surveillance system provides evidence of symptomatic poliovirus infections detected, which indicate immunity gaps after outbreaks occur, and this system represents an appropriate focus for controlling disease outbreaks. We describe a conceptual dynamic model to characterize population immunity to poliovirus transmission that helps identify risks created by immunity gaps before outbreaks occur, which provides an opportunity for national and global policymakers to manage the risk of poliovirus and prevent outbreaks before they occur. We suggest that dynamically modeling risk represents an essential tool as the number of cases approaches zero.

Investigation of elevated case-fatality rate in poliomyelitis outbreak in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo, 2010

BACKGROUND

Multiple cases of paralysis, often resulting in death, occurred among young adults during a wild poliovirus (WPV) type 1 outbreak in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo, in 2010. We conducted an investigation to identify factors associated with fatal outcomes among persons with poliomyelitis in Pointe Noire.

METHODS

Polio cases were defined as acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases reported from 7 October to 7 December 2010 with either a stool specimen positive for WPV or clinically classified as polio-compatible. Data were obtained from medical records, hospital databases, AFP case investigation forms and, when possible, via interviews with persons with polio or surrogates using a standard questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 369 polio cases occurred in Pointe Noire between 7 October and 7 December 2010. Median age was 22 years for nonsurvivors and 18 years for survivors (P = .01). Small home size, as defined by ≤2 rooms, use of a well for drinking water during a water shortage, and age ≥15 years were risk factors for death in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Consideration should be given during polio risk assessment planning and outbreak response to water/sanitation status and potential susceptibility to polio in older children and adults. Serosurveys to estimate immunity gaps in older age groups in countries at high risk of polio importation might be useful to guide preparedness and response planning.

An outbreak of wild poliovirus in the Republic of Congo, 2010-2011

BACKGROUND

The Republic of Congo has had no cases of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) since 2000. In October 2010, a neurologist noted an abnormal number of cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among adults, which were later confirmed to be caused by WPV1.

METHODS

Those presenting with AFP underwent clinical history, physical examination, and clinical specimen collection to determine if they had polio. AFP cases were classified as laboratory-confirmed, clinical, or nonpolio AFP. Epidemiologic features of the outbreak were analyzed.

RESULTS

From 19 September 2010 to 22 January 2011, 445 cases of WPV1 were reported in the Republic of Congo; 390 cases were from Pointe Noire. Overall, 331 cases were among adults; 378 cases were clinically confirmed, and 64 cases were laboratory confirmed. The case-fatality ratio (CFR) was 43%. Epidemiologic characteristics differed among polio cases reported in Pointe Noire and cases reported in the rest of the Republic of Congo, including age distribution and CFR. The outbreak stopped after multiple vaccination rounds with oral poliovirus vaccine, which targeted the entire population.

CONCLUSIONS

This outbreak underscores the need to maintain high vaccination coverage to prevent outbreaks, the need to maintain timely high-quality surveillance to rapidly identify and respond to any potential cases before an outbreak escalates, and the need to perform ongoing risk assessments of immunity gaps in polio-free countries.

Poliomyelitis-related case-fatality ratio in India, 2002-2006

BACKGROUND

On the basis of studies from developed countries, the case-fatality ratio (CFR) of poliomyelitis generally ranges from 2%-5% among children <5 years of age to 10%-30% among adults. However, little information is available for poliomyelitis-related CFR in developing countries. We conducted a study to determine the CFR in India, 1 of the 4 remaining countries with endemic wild poliovirus (WPV) circulation, during outbreaks of WPV infection during 2002 and 2006 and during the inter-epidemic years of 2003-2005.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive analysis with use of data from the acute flaccid paralysis surveillance system in India. Variables analyzed included age, caregiver-reported vaccination status, date of paralysis onset, laboratory results, final case classification, and survival outcome. Our analysis also accounted for surveillance changes that occurred in 2005, impacting case definitions and final classification.

RESULTS

In 2006, 45 deaths occurred among 676 WPV cases in India, yielding a CFR of 6.7%. By comparison, in 2002, there were 66 deaths among 1600 reported WPV cases (CFR, 4.2%) and during 2002-2005, CFR was 1.5%-5.2%. All 45 deaths were among 644 (95%) WPV cases in children aged <5 years (CFR, 7.0%). Among those who died, 33 (73%) were children aged <2 years (CFR, 7.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

The CFR among children aged <2 years in India is high compared with previously published CFRs for young children, in part because of improved case finding through enhanced surveillance techniques. Fatal cases emphasize the lethal nature of the disease and the importance of achieving polio eradication in India.

Development of an individual-based model for polioviruses: implications of the selection of network type and outcome metrics

We developed an individual-based (IB) model to explore the stochastic attributes of state transitions, the heterogeneity of the individual interactions, and the impact of different network structure choices on the poliovirus transmission process in the context of understanding the dynamics of outbreaks. We used a previously published differential equation-based model to develop the IB model and inputs. To explore the impact of different types of networks, we implemented a total of 26 variations of six different network structures in the IB model. We found that the choice of network structure plays a critical role in the model estimates of cases and the dynamics of outbreaks. This study provides insights about the potential use of an IB model to support policy analyses related to managing the risks of polioviruses and shows the importance of assumptions about network structure.

An evaluation of the sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia

Background

World Health Organization (WHO) targets for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, including the notification of a minimum rate of AFP among children, are used to assess the adequacy of AFP surveillance for the detection of poliovirus infection. Sensitive surveillance for poliovirus infection in both developed and developing countries is essential to support global disease eradication efforts. We applied recently developed methods for the quantitative evaluation of disease surveillance systems to evaluate the sensitivity of AFP surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia.

Methods

A scenario tree model which accounted for administrative region, age, population immunity, the likelihood of AFP, and the probability of notification and stool sampling was used to assess the sensitivity of AFP surveillance for wild poliovirus infection among children aged less than 15 years in Australia. The analysis was based on historical surveillance data collected between 2000 and 2005. We used a surveillance time period of one month, and evaluated the ability of the surveillance system to detect poliovirus infection at a prevalence of 1 case per 100 000 persons and 1 case per million persons.

Results

There was considerable variation in the sensitivity of AFP surveillance for poliovirus infection among Australian States and Territories. The estimated median sensitivity of AFP surveillance in Australia among children aged less than 15 years was 8.2% per month at a prevalence of 1 case per 100,000 population, and 0.9% per month at a prevalence of 1 case per million population. The probability that Australia is free from poliovirus infection given negative surveillance findings following 5 years of continuous surveillance was 96.9% at a prevalence of 1 case per 100,000 persons and 56.5% at a prevalence of 1 case per million persons.

Conclusion

Given the ongoing risk of poliovirus importation prior to global eradication, long term surveillance is required to provide a high degree of confidence in freedom from poliovirus infection in Australia, particularly if a low prevalence of infection is assumed. Adherence to the WHO surveillance targets would considerably improve the sensitivity of surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia.

Surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis in the Marches region (Italy): 1997-2007

Background

The last case of poliomyelitis due to transmission of indigenous wild poliovirus occurred in Italy in 1982, however, it is important to guarantee a high quality surveillance as there is a risk of importation of cases from areas where polio is endemic. Stopping poliovirus transmission is pursued through a combination of high infant immunization coverage and surveillance for wild poliovirus through reporting and laboratory testing of all cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among children under fifteen years of age. The aim of this study was to describe and to evaluate 11 years of active surveillance in the Marches (Italy) in terms of: incidence, aetiology and clinical manifestation of AFP cases.

Methods

The active Acute Flaccid Paralysis surveillance has been carried out in the Marches region since February 1997 by the Chair of Hygiene which established a regional hospital network. Active surveillance involves 15 hospital centres.

Results

In the considered period, 0–15 years population varied between 187,051 in 1997 to 201,625 in 2007, so the number of AFP expected cases is 2 per year. From February 1997 to October 2007, 27 cases were found with rates of 1.0/100,000 in 1997; 2.0/100,000 in 1998; 1.0/100,000 in 1999; 0.5/100,000 in 2000; 2.5/100,000 in 2001; 1.0/100,000 in 2002; 0 in 2003; 0.5/100,000 in 2004; 1.5/100,000 in 2005; 2.0/100,000 in 2006; 1.5/100,000 in 2007. In 29.6% of cases two stool samples were collected in 14 days from the symptoms onset. The 60-days follow-up is available for 23 out of 27 cases reported. In 44.5% of cases the definite diagnosis was Guillain Barrè syndrome.

Conclusion

In general, the surveillance activity is satisfactory even if in presence of some criticalities in biological samples collection. The continuation of surveillance, in addition to the maintenance of current levels of performance, will tend to a further and more detailed sensitization of all workers involved, in order to obtain spontaneous and prompt reporting, and to achieve the optimal standards recommended by the WHO both in the collection of biological samples and the availability of 60 days follow-up, with the goal of eradicating polio from all countries.

The costs of future polio risk management policies

Decisionmakers need information about the anticipated future costs of maintaining polio eradication as a function of the policy options under consideration. Given the large portfolio of options, we reviewed and synthesized the existing cost data relevant to current policies to provide context for future policies. We model the expected future costs of different strategies for continued vaccination, surveillance, and other costs that require significant potential resource commitments. We estimate the costs of different potential policy portfolios for low-, middle-, and high-income countries to demonstrate the variability in these costs. We estimate that a global transition from routine immunization with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) would increase the costs of managing polio globally, although routine IPV use remains less costly than routine OPV use with supplemental immunization activities. The costs of surveillance and a stockpile, while small compared to routine vaccination costs, represent important expenditures to ensure adequate response to potential outbreaks. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses highlight important uncertainty in the aggregated costs and demonstrates that the discount rate and uncertainty in price and administration cost of IPV drives the expected incremental cost of routine IPV vs. OPV immunization.

Molecular characterization of wild-type polioviruses isolated in Greece during the 1996 outbreak in Albania

During the present study three type 1 poliovirus strains isolated in Greece during the 1996 poliomyelitis outbreak in Albania were retrospectively investigated and determination of their relationship with other epidemic strains isolated in Albania or elsewhere during previous epidemics was attempted. SimPlot analysis revealed that the three Greek strains are the result of a recombination event in the VP2 coding region.

A dynamic model of poliomyelitis outbreaks: learning from the past to help inform the future

Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the tradeoffs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different posteradication conditions. In this paper, the authors identify the issues related to prospective modeling of future outbreaks using such a model, including the reality that accurate prediction of conditions and associated model inputs prior to future outbreaks remains challenging. The authors explored the model's behavior in the context of three recent outbreaks resulting from importation of poliovirus into previously polio-free countries and found that the model reproduced reported data on the incidence of cases. The authors expect that this model can provide important insights into the dynamics of future potential poliomyelitis outbreaks and in this way serve as a useful tool for risk assessment.

A seroprevalence study of poliovirus antibody in the population of northern Greece

This study assessed immunity to poliomyelitis in a representative sample of 1064 persons living in northern Greece. Antibody prevalences in the individuals tested were 91.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 89.4-92.8), 92.1% (95% CI: 90.5-93.7) and 83.1% (95% CI: 80.8-85.4) for poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3, respectively. For poliovirus type 3, a gap in immunity was found in individuals aged 10-29 years. Re-vaccination of adolescents living in northern Greece is suggested to ensure herd immunity and to minimise the risk of importation of wild poliovirus from endemic countries.

Retrospective study on poliomyelitis cases in northern Greece

Here we report the results of a retrospective study on the epidemiological characteristics and genetic relationships of the virus isolates responsible for the last poliomyelitis cases in Greece. The last wild poliomyelitis case in Greece was detected in 1996, and the last vaccine-related strain was isolated in 1998. The whole of Europe, including Greece, is now considered to be polio-free.

Comparative evaluation of four large-volume RNA extraction kits in the isolation of viral RNA from water samples

The quality of the RNA extraction system plays a crucial role for the detection of viruses in water or environmental samples. In the present study we investigated the detection limit, the efficiency and the presence of eventually co-extracted inhibitors by comparing four commercially available large scale (>or=1 ml) viral RNA extraction methods (QIAamp Viral RNA Mini Kit in combination with preconcentration by Centricon YM-100 [Centricon-QIAamp], QIAamp UltraSens Virus Kit, NucliSens Isolation Kit and NucleoSpin RNA Virus F). A 1 ml 50 mM glycine (pH 8.0) containing 1% beef extract was spiked with different concentrations of poliovirus vaccine strains, extracted by the four methods and analysed by RT-nested PCR or RT-quantitative LightCycler PCR. Eight replicates were analysed for each concentration on different days. The positive cut-off point was determined to be at 0.25 CCID(50) per ml (Centricon-QIAamp), 1.46 CCID(50) per ml (UltraSens), 0.4 CCID(50) per ml (NucliSens) and 3.03 CCID(50) per ml (NucleoSpin). Quantitative analysis (LightCycler) of a high-titer sample showed significant differences between the efficiencies of the four extraction methods examined. The efficiencies of the extraction methods were normalized to the NucliSens method as follows: (71% Centricon-QIAamp, 18% UltraSens, 100% NucliSens and 23% NucleoSpin). In addition, spiked negative controls did show significant differences, indicating a co-extraction of inhibitors. Compared with the non-inhibited positive control the inhibitions were 21, 37, 27 and 68% for the Centricon-QIAamp, UltraSens, NucliSens and NucleoSpin methods, respectively. Taken together, these findings indicate that of the four evaluated extraction methods both the NucliSens and Centricon-QIAamp are best suited to extract viral RNA from water samples previously concentrated and have shown to be very sensitive, efficient and robust methods.

High level of immunity against poliomyelitis in Albanian refugees in southern Italy

BACKGROUND

The Apulia region (Southern Italy) may be considered a "border region" which, due to its position, has to face daily arrivals of refugees, especially from Albania. When the exodus of Albanians took place in 1991, a seroepidemiologic study revealed a low seroimmunity to poliomyelitis. In 1996, a large outbreak of paralytic poliomyelitis occurred in Albania. The aim of the study was to evaluate the poliomyelitis immunization level in a sample of Albanian refugees who arrived in the Apulia region between April and May 1997.

METHODS

Blood samples were obtained, after informed consent and on a voluntary basis, from 667 subjects housed in seven refugee camps in the Apulia region. Titration of neutralizing antibodies to the three polioviruses was carried out.

RESULTS

The findings showed that Albanian refugees had adequate levels of immunity to all polioviruses (95% for poliovirus type 1, 98.6% for poliovirus type 2 and 91.4% for poliovirus type 3). Moreover, a high immunization rate was found in all age groups irrespective of the areas of origin of the refugees and their socioeconomic conditions.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that Albanian refugees in Apulia region have adequate levels of immunity against polioviruses and confirm the effectiveness of mass vaccination campaigns with OPV conducted by WHO in Albania following an outbreak of poliomyelitis in 1996.

Surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis in Italy: 1996-1997. AFP Study Group. Acute flaccid paralysis

The last case of poliomyelitis due to transmission of indigenous wild poliovirus occurred in Italy in 1982. To achieve the certification of the eradication of poliomyelitis in Italy, an active surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in the population aged less than 15 years was set up following the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. The survey started in 1996 with a pilot study involving 4 out of 21 regions, and was gradually extended to a national level in 1997. The two-year survey identified five patients with diagnosis of vaccine associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP). Polioviruses type 2 and 3 Sabin-like were isolated and characterized in three of them. In the remaining two cases, samples were collected late after the onset of symptoms, and poliovirus could not be isolated. No wild polioviruses were detected during the survey. The rate of non-polio AFP found in Italy in 1997 was 0.61 cases per 100,000, which is lower than the level of 1.0 case per 100,000 considered as acceptable by the WHO. This was mainly due to the delay in organizing the hospital network and starting the active search of AFP cases in the largest and most densely populated regions. Therefore, the overall rate of AFP found in Italy underestimates the global effectiveness of the program, which however will be better evaluated in the next few years. This study is the first systematic attempt to determine the rate of AFP in Italy.

Genomic characterization of human and environmental polioviruses isolated in Albania

Between April and December 1996, a serious outbreak of poliomyelitis occurred in Albania; almost 140 subjects were involved, and the episode presented an unusually high mortality rate (12%). During the outbreak, water samples from the Lana River in Tirana, Albania, and stool samples from two cases of paralytic poliomyelitis were collected and analyzed for the presence of polioviruses. Six polioviruses were isolated from the environmental and human samples, according to standard methods. All the samples were characterized by partial genomic sequencing of 330 bases across the 5' untranslated region (5'-UTR) (nucleotide positions 200 to 530) and of 300 bases across the VP1 region (nucleotide positions 2474 to 2774). Comparison of these sequences with those present in data banks permitted the identification of environmental isolates Lana A and Lana B as, respectively, a Sabin-like type 2 poliovirus and an intertypic recombinant poliovirus (Sabin-like type 2/wild type 1), both bearing a G instead of an A at nucleotide position 481. The two other environmental polioviruses were similar to the isolates from the paralytic cases. They were characterized by a peculiar 5'-UTR and by a VP1 region showing 98% homology with the Albanian epidemic type 1 isolates reported by other authors. This study confirms the environmental circulation in Albania of recombinant poliovirus strains, likely sustained by a massive vaccination effort and by the presence in the environment of a type 1 poliovirus, as isolated from the Lana River in Tirana about 2 months before the first case of symptomatic acute flaccid paralysis was reported in this town.

Serum antibodies to polioviruses in Alexandria, Egypt

Random sera, in a total of 192, were collected in the Fever Hospital of Alexandria, Egypt, and analysed for the presence of antibodies against polioviruses. The results show good antibody levels, only three sera (1.5%) were negative for poliovirus type 1, 5 (2.6%) for poliovirus type 2 and 10 (5.2%) for poliovirus type 3; one subject was completely negative.

Antigenic and molecular characterization of wild type 1 poliovirus causing outbreaks of poliomyelitis in Albania and neighboring countries in 1996

Mass vaccination has led poliomyelitis to become a rare disease in a large part of the world, including Western Europe. However, in the past 20 years wild polioviruses imported from countries where polio is endemic have been responsible for outbreaks in otherwise polio-free European countries. We report on the characterization of poliovirus isolates from a large outbreak of poliomyelitis that occurred in Albania in 1996 and that also spread to the neighboring countries of Yugoslavia and Greece. The epidemics involved 145 subjects, mostly young adults, and caused persisting paralysis in 87 individuals and 16 deaths. The agent responsible for the outbreak was isolated from 74 patients and was identified as wild type 1 poliovirus by both immunological and molecular methods. Sequence analysis of the genome demonstrated the involvement of a single virus strain throughout the epidemics, and genotyping analysis showed 95% homology of the strain with a wild type 1 poliovirus strain isolated in Pakistan in 1995. Neutralization assays with both human sera and monoclonal antibodies were performed to analyze the antigenic structure of the epidemic strain, suggesting its peculiar antigenic characteristics. The presented data underline the current risks of outbreaks due to imported wild poliovirus and emphasize the need to improve vaccination efforts and also the need to implement surveillance in countries free of indigenous wild poliovirus.