Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate

Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control: A review

Malaria, a global public health challenge, continues to affect millions of lives, particularly in regions where its transmission is endemic. The interplay between climate change and malaria dynamics has emerged as a critical concern, reshaping the landscape of this vector-borne disease. This review publication, titled "Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control," explores the multifaceted relationship between climate change and the control of malaria. The paper begins by dissecting the influence of climate change on malaria dynamics, including alterations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors that impact the habitat and life cycle of malaria vectors. It delves into the evolving ecology and behavior of malaria vectors in response to changing climatic conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding these adaptations. As a response to this shifting landscape, the review discusses adaptive strategies for malaria control, ranging from vector control measures to the utilization of climate data in early warning systems. Community engagement and education are highlighted as essential components of these strategies, recognizing the vital role of local communities in effective malaria control efforts. The paper also identifies future directions and research needs, underscoring the importance of staying ahead of the evolving climate-malaria relationship. This review underscores the urgency of adapting to the changing landscape of malaria transmission driven by climate change. It emphasizes the significance of proactively addressing climate-related challenges to enhance malaria control and protect the health and well-being of vulnerable populations.

Integrated One Health strategies in Dengue

Zoonoses have rapidly spread globally, necessitating the implementation of vaccination strategies as a control measure. Emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases are among the major global public health concerns. Dengue, a zoonotic viral infection transmitted to humans by a vector, the Aedes mosquito, is a severe global health problem. Dengue is a serious tropical infectious disease, second only to malaria, causing around 25,000 deaths each year. The resurgence of Dengue is mainly due to climate change, demographic transitions and evolving social dynamics. The development of an effective vaccine against Dengue has proven to be a complex undertaking due to four different viral serotypes with distinct antigenic profiles. This review highlights the urgent need to address the dengue threat by exploring the application of biotechnological and -OMICS sciences.

Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa

Africa carries a disproportionately high share of the global malaria burden, accounting for 94% of malaria cases and deaths worldwide in 2019. It is also a politically unstable region and the most vulnerable continent to climate change in recent decades. Knowledge about the modifying impacts of violent conflict on climate-malaria relationships remains limited. Here, we quantify the associations between violent conflict, climate variability, and malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa using health surveys from 128,326 individuals, historical climate data, and 17,429 recorded violent conflicts from 2006 to 2017. We observe that spatial spillovers of violent conflict (SSVCs) have spatially distant effects on malaria risk. Malaria risk induced by SSVCs within 50 to 100 km from the households gradually increases from 0.1% (not significant, P>0.05) to 6.5% (95% CI: 0 to 13.0%). SSVCs significantly promote malaria risk within the average 20.1 to 26.9 °C range. At the 12-mo mean temperature of 22.5 °C, conflict deaths have the largest impact on malaria risk, with an approximately 5.8% increase (95% CI: 1.0 to 11.0%). Additionally, a pronounced association between SSVCs and malaria risk exists in the regions with 9.2 wet days per month. The results reveal that SSVCs increase population exposure to harsh environments, amplifying the effect of warm temperature and persistent precipitation on malaria transmission. Violent conflict therefore poses a substantial barrier to mosquito control and malaria elimination efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings support effective targeting of treatment programs and vector control activities in conflict-affected regions with a high malaria risk.

Use of micro and macroalgae extracts for the control of vector mosquitoes

Mosquitoes are one of the most dangerous vectors of human diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus. Controlling these vectors is a challenging responsibility for public health authorities worldwide. In recent years, the use of products derived from living organisms has emerged as a promising approach for mosquito control. Among these living organisms, algae are of great interest due to their larvicidal properties. Some algal species provide nutritious food for larvae, while others produce allelochemicals that are toxic to mosquito larvae. In this article, we reviewed the existing literature on the larvicidal potential of extracts of micro- and macroalgae, transgenic microalgae, and nanoparticles of algae on mosquitoes and their underlying mechanisms. The results of many publications show that the toxic effects of micro- and macroalgae on mosquitoes vary according to the type of extraction, solvents, mosquito species, exposure time, larval stage, and algal components. A few studies suggest that the components of algae that have toxic effects on mosquitoes show through synergistic interaction between components, inhibition of feeding, damage to gut membrane cells, and inhibition of digestive and detoxification enzymes. In conclusion, algae extracts, transgenic microalgae, and nanoparticles of algae have shown significant larvicidal activity against mosquitoes, making them potential candidates for the development of new mosquito control products.

Understanding the spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between malaria incidence and environmental risk factors using Geographically Weighted Random Forest: A case study in Rwanda

As found in the health studies literature, the levels of climate association between epidemiological diseases have been found to vary across regions. Therefore, it seems reasonable to allow for the possibility that relationships might vary spatially within regions. We implemented the geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) machine learning method to analyze ecological disease patterns caused by spatially non-stationary processes using a malaria incidence dataset for Rwanda. We first compared the geographically weighted regression (WGR), the global random forest (GRF), and the geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to examine the spatial non-stationarity in the non-linear relationships between malaria incidence and their risk factors. We used the Gaussian areal kriging model to disaggregate the malaria incidence at the local administrative cell level to understand the relationships at a fine scale since the model goodness of fit was not satisfactory to explain malaria incidence due to the limited number of sample values. Our results show that in terms of the coefficients of determination and prediction accuracy, the geographical random forest model performs better than the GWR and the global random forest model. The coefficients of determination of the geographically weighted regression (R2), the global RF (R2), and the GWRF (R2) were 4.74, 0.76, and 0.79, respectively. The GWRF algorithm achieves the best result and reveals that risk factors (rainfall, land surface temperature, elevation, and air temperature) have a strong non-linear relationship with the spatial distribution of malaria incidence rates, which could have implications for supporting local initiatives for malaria elimination in Rwanda.

Climate and Environmental Changes and Their Potential Effects on the Dynamics of Chagas Disease: Hybridization in Rhodniini (Hemiptera, Triatominae)

Chagas disease affects about eight million people. In view of the issues related to the influence of anthropogenic changes in the dynamics of the distribution and reproductive interaction of triatomines, we performed experimental crosses between species of the Rhodniini tribe in order to evaluate interspecific reproductive interactions and hybrid production capacity. Reciprocal crossing experiments were conducted among Rhodnius brethesi × R. pictipes, R. colombiensis × R. ecuadoriensis, R. neivai × R. prolixus, R. robustus × R. prolixus, R. montenegrensis × R. marabaensis; R. montenegrensis × R. robustus, R. prolixus × R. nasutus and R. neglectus × R. milesi. With the exception of crosses between R. pictipes ♀ × R. brethesi ♂, R. ecuadoriensis ♀ × R. colombiensis ♂ and R. prolixus ♀ × R. neivai ♂, all experimental crosses resulted in hybrids. Our results demonstrate that both allopatric and sympatric species produce hybrids, which can generate concern for public health agencies in the face of current anthropogenic events. Thus, we demonstrate that species of the Rhodniini tribe are capable of producing hybrids under laboratory conditions. These results are of great epidemiological importance and raise an important discussion about the influence of climatic and environmental interactions on Chagas disease dynamics.

Preliminary Investigation of Schmalhausen's Law in a Directly Transmitted Pathogen Outbreak System

The past few decades have been marked by drastic modifications to the landscape by anthropogenic processes, leading to increased variability in the environment. For populations that thrive at their distributional boundaries, these changes can affect them drastically, as Schmalhausen's law predicts that their dynamics are more likely to be susceptible to environmental variation. Recently, this evolutionary theory has been put to the test in vector-borne disease emergences systems, and has been demonstrated effective in predicting emergence patterns. However, it has yet to be tested in a directly transmitted pathogen. Here, we provide a preliminary test of Schmalhausen's law using data on Marburg virus outbreaks originating from spillover events. By combining the two important aspects of Schmalhausen's law, namely climatic anomalies and distance to species distributional edges, we show that Marburgvirus outbreaks may support an aspect of this evolutionary theory, with distance to species distributional edge having a weak influence on outbreak size. However, we failed to demonstrate any effect of climatic anomalies on Marburgvirus outbreaks, arguably related to the lack of importance of these variables in directly transmitted pathogen outbreaks. With increasing zoonotic spillover events occurring from wild species, we highlight the importance of considering ecological variability to better predict emergence patterns.

How Antimicrobial Resistance Is Linked to Climate Change: An Overview of Two Intertwined Global Challenges

Globally, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change (CC) are two of the top health emergencies, and can be considered as two interlinked public health priorities. The complex commonalities between AMR and CC should be deeply investigated in a One Health perspective. Here, we provided an overview of the current knowledge about the relationship between AMR and CC. Overall, the studies included pointed out the need for applying a systemic approach to planetary health. Firstly, CC increasingly brings humans and animals into contact, leading to outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases with pandemic potential. Although it is well-established that antimicrobial use in human, animal and environmental sectors is one of the main drivers of AMR, the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating the current scenario, by influencing the use of antibiotics, personal protective equipment, and biocides. This also results in higher concentrations of contaminants (e.g., microplastics) in natural water bodies, which cannot be completely removed from wastewater treatment plants, and which could sustain the AMR spread. Our overview underlined the lack of studies on the direct relationship between AMR and CC, and encouraged further research to investigate the multiple aspects involved, and its effect on human health.

Predicting spatio-temporal population patterns of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease pathogen

The causative bacterium of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, expanded from an undetected human pathogen into the etiologic agent of the most common vector-borne disease in the United States over the last several decades. Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases in the geographic range and prevalence of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks that coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York State.We investigate the impact of environmental features on the population dynamics of B. burgdorferi. Analytical models developed using field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal Ixodes scapularis and spatially and temporally explicit environmental features accurately explained the variation in the nymphal infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi across space and time.Importantly, the model identified environmental features reflecting landscape ecology, vertebrate hosts, climatic metrics, climate anomalies and surveillance efforts that can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled areas.Forecasting the distribution and prevalence of a pathogen at fine geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public health threat. Synthesis and applications. A decade of environmental and tick data was collected to create a model that accurately predicts the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi over space and time. This predictive model can be extrapolated to create a high-resolution risk map of the Lyme disease pathogen for future years that offers an inexpensive approach to improve both ecological management and public health strategies to mitigate disease risk.

The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of Iran

Malaria is a vector-borne disease, likely to be affected by climate change. In this study, general circulation model (GCM)-based scenarios were used for projecting future climate patterns and malaria incidence by artificial neural networks (ANN) in Zahedan district, Iran. Daily malaria incidence data of Zahedan district from 2000 to 2019 were inquired. The gamma test was used to select the appropriate combination of parameters for nonlinear modeling. The future climate pattern projections were obtained from HadGEM2-ES. The output was downscaled using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission for 2021-2060 was simulated by ANN. The designed model indicated that the future climate in Zahedan district will be warmer, more humid, and with more precipitation. Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria by ANN showed the number of malaria cases in Zahedan under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5). It should be noted that due to the lack of daily malaria data before 2013, monthly data from 2000 were used only for initial analysis; and in preprocessing and simulation analyses, the daily malaria data from 2013 to 2019 were used. Therefore, if proper interventions are not implemented, malaria will continue to be a health issue in this region.

Increase of avian Plasmodium circumflexum prevalence, but not of other malaria parasites and related haemosporidians in northern Europe during the past 40 years

Background

Malaria is a health problem not only in human and veterinary medicine, but also in wildlife. Several theoretical studies have suggested that avian malaria transmission might be increasing in Europe. However, there are few direct empirical observations. Research on the distribution of avian haemosporidian parasites was initiated around the Curonian Lagoon, Europe in 1976 and continues since. This has provided an opportunity to compare the prevalence and diversity of avian malaria parasites (genus Plasmodium) and related haemosporidians (genera Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) in the same bird species using similar methodology but examined in two groups 40 years apart. This study aimed to describe and discuss the available data on this subject.

Methods

Prevalence and diversity of haemosporidians was compared in two passeriform bird groups, which consisted of the same species that were sampled on the coast of the Curonian Lagoon (Russia, Lithuania) during the same season (September) in 1978–1983 (bird Group 1) and 2020 (bird Group 2). Blood films of the European robin, Coal tit, Great tit, Eurasian wren, and Eurasian jay were screened by microscopic examination. Parasites were identified using morphological characters of blood stages. PCR-based methods were applied to determine genetic lineages of the parasites found in birds of Group 2.

Results

No difference was discernible in the prevalence or diversity of haemosporidian parasites belonging to Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium (Haemamoeba) and Plasmodium (Novyella) between birds of Groups 1 and 2. This indicates a similar rate of transmission and relatively stable epidemiological situation in regard of these infections during the past 40 years. The prevalence of only one malaria parasite species, Plasmodium (Giovannolaia) circumflexum, increased remarkably, but only in Coal tit, Great tit, and Eurasian wren, with no significant prevalence change in European robin and Eurasian jay.

Conclusion

Plasmodium circumflexum is spreading and seems to be a new invasive avian malaria pathogen in countries with cold climates. The exceptionally high prevalence of P. circumflexum in birds breeding in relatively close-nests suggests an important role of the nesting biology related to bird-vector interaction in this pathogen transmission. The epidemiological situation seems to be relatively stable in regard of other studied avian hosts and haemosporidian parasites in northern Europe.

Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) Ensemble Distribution Modeling: Applications for Malaria Elimination

Simple Summary

Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. However, sporadic outbreaks still occur, and while control strategies have been focused on delivering efficient treatments for infected patients, an open question is whether control measures targeting the dominant vector, Anopheles albimanus, are appropriately designed given their ecology and distribution. Here, we illustrate the use of an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) as a tool to assess the potential exposure to An. albimanus in palm and pineapple plantations, and to also assess the potential involvement of this mosquito vector in transmission foci where entomological surveillance is not feasible. We found that both oil palm and pineapple plantations are very likely to harbor An. albimanus. By contrast, environments at the Crucitas open-pit gold mine, the epicenter of malaria transmission in 2018 and 2019, have low suitability for this mosquito species. Our results suggest that medium to high resolution SDMs can be used to plan vector control activities. Finally, we discuss the high suitability of oil palm and pineapple plantations for An. albimanus in reference to recently developed social science theory about the Plantationocene.

Abstract

In the absence of entomological information, tools for predicting Anopheles spp. presence can help evaluate the entomological risk of malaria transmission. Here, we illustrate how species distribution models (SDM) could quantify potential dominant vector species presence in malaria elimination settings. We fitted a 250 m resolution ensemble SDM for Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann. The ensemble SDM included predictions based on seven different algorithms, 110 occurrence records and 70 model projections. SDM covariates included nine environmental variables that were selected based on their importance from an original set of 28 layers that included remotely and spatially interpolated locally measured variables for the land surface of Costa Rica. Goodness of fit for the ensemble SDM was very high, with a minimum AUC of 0.79. We used the resulting ensemble SDM to evaluate differences in habitat suitability (HS) between commercial plantations and surrounding landscapes, finding a higher HS in pineapple and oil palm plantations, suggestive of An. albimanus presence, than in surrounding landscapes. The ensemble SDM suggested a low HS for An. albimanus at the presumed epicenter of malaria transmission during 2018–2019 in Costa Rica, yet this vector was likely present at the two main towns also affected by the epidemic. Our results illustrate how ensemble SDMs in malaria elimination settings can provide information that could help to improve vector surveillance and control.

Climate change and the dynamics of age-related malaria incidence in Southern Africa

In the last decade, many malaria-endemic countries, like Zambia, have achieved significant reductions in malaria incidence among children <5 years old but face ongoing challenges in achieving similar progress against malaria in older age groups. In parts of Zambia, changing climatic and environmental factors are among those suspectedly behind high malaria incidence. Changes and variations in these factors potentially interfere with intervention program effectiveness and alter the distribution and incidence patterns of malaria differentially between young children and the rest of the population. We used parametric and non-parametric statistics to model the effects of climatic and socio-demographic variables on age-specific malaria incidence vis-à-vis control interventions. Linear regressions, mixed models, and Mann-Kendall tests were implemented to explore trends, changes in trends, and regress malaria incidence against environmental and intervention variables. Our study shows that while climate parameters affect the whole population, their impacts are felt most by people aged ≥5 years. Climate variables influenced malaria substantially more than mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying interventions. We establish that climate parameters negatively impact malaria control efforts by exacerbating the transmission conditions via more conducive temperature and rainfall environments, which are augmented by cultural and socioeconomic exposure mechanisms. We argue that an intensified communications and education intervention strategy for behavioural change specifically targeted at ≥5 aged population where incidence rates are increasing, is urgently required and call for further malaria stratification among the ≥5 age groups in the routine collection, analysis and reporting of malaria mortality and incidence data.

Climate-proofing a malaria eradication strategy

Two recent initiatives, the World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication and the Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication, have assessed the feasibility of achieving global malaria eradication and proposed strategies to achieve it. Both reports rely on a climate-driven model of malaria transmission to conclude that long-term trends in climate will assist eradication efforts overall and, consequently, neither prioritize strategies to manage the effects of climate variability and change on malaria programming. This review discusses the pathways via which climate affects malaria and reviews the suitability of climate-driven models of malaria transmission to inform long-term strategies such as an eradication programme. Climate can influence malaria directly, through transmission dynamics, or indirectly, through myriad pathways including the many socioeconomic factors that underpin malaria risk. These indirect effects are largely unpredictable and so are not included in climate-driven disease models. Such models have been effective at predicting transmission from weeks to months ahead. However, due to several well-documented limitations, climate projections cannot accurately predict the medium- or long-term effects of climate change on malaria, especially on local scales. Long-term climate trends are shifting disease patterns, but climate shocks (extreme weather and climate events) and variability from sub-seasonal to decadal timeframes have a much greater influence than trends and are also more easily integrated into control programmes. In light of these conclusions, a pragmatic approach is proposed to assessing and managing the effects of climate variability and change on long-term malaria risk and on programmes to control, eliminate and ultimately eradicate the disease. A range of practical measures are proposed to climate-proof a malaria eradication strategy, which can be implemented today and will ensure that climate variability and change do not derail progress towards eradication.

Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming

A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions.

Spatio-temporal variation in environmental features predicts the distribution and abundance of Ixodes scapularis

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in both geographic range and population sizes in recent history. Increases in the geographic range or population size of disease vectors have public health relevance as these increases often precipitate the emergence of infectious diseases in human populations. Accurately identifying environmental factors affecting the biogeographic patterns of vector species is a long-standing analytical challenge, stemming from a paucity of data capturing periods of rapid changes in vector demographics. We systematically investigated the occurrence and abundance of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks at 532 sampling locations throughout New York State (NY), USA, between 2008 and 2018, a time frame that encompasses the emergence of diseases vectored by these ticks. Analyses of these field-collected data demonstrated a range expansion into northern and western NY during the last decade. Nymphal abundances increased in newly colonised areas, while remaining stable in areas with long-standing populations over the last decade. These trends in the geographic range and abundance of nymphs correspond to both the geographic expansion of human Lyme disease cases and increases in incidence rates. Analytic models fitted to these data incorporating time, space, and environmental factors, accurately identified drivers of the observed changes in nymphal occurrence and abundance. These models accounted for the spatial and temporal variation in the occurrence and abundance of nymphs and can accurately predict nymphal population patterns in future years. Forecasting disease risk at fine spatial scales prior to the transmission season can influence both public health mitigation strategies and individual behaviours, potentially impacting tick-borne disease risk and subsequently human disease incidence.

Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission

The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.

Naturally Occurring Microbiota Associated with Mosquito Breeding Habitats and Their Effects on Mosquito Larvae

Immature mosquitoes are aquatic, and their distribution, abundance, and individual fitness in a particular breeding habitat are known to be dependent on mainly three factors: biotic factors, abiotic factors, and their interaction between each other and with other associated taxa. Mosquito breeding habitats harbor a diversified naturally occurring microbiota assemblage, and the biota have different types of interactions with mosquito larvae in those habitats. Those interactions may include parasitism, pathogenism, predation, and competition which cause the mortality of larvae, natural reduction of larval abundance, or alterations in their growth. Many microbiota species serve as food items for mosquito larvae, and there are also some indigestible or toxic phytoplanktons to larvae. However, when there is coexistence or mutualism of different mosquito species along with associated microbiota, they form a community sharing the habitat requirements. With the available literature, it is evident that the abundance of mosquito larvae is related to the densities of associated microbiota and their composition in that particular breeding habitat. Potential antagonist microbiota which are naturally occurring in mosquito breeding habitats could be used in integrated vector control approaches, and this method rises as an ecofriendly approach in controlling larvae in natural habitats themselves. To date, this aspect has received less attention; only a limited number of species of microbiota inhabiting mosquito breeding habitats have been recorded, and detailed studies on microbiota assemblage in relation to diverse vector mosquito breeding habitats and their association with mosquito larvae are few. Therefore, future studies on this important ecological aspect are encouraged. Such studies may help to identify field characteristic agents that can serve as mosquito controlling candidates in their natural habitats themselves.

Aedes albopictus and Aedes flavopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) pre-imaginal abundance patterns are associated with different environmental factors along an altitudinal gradient

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) is a major global invasive mosquito species that, in Japan, co-occurs with Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus Yamada, a closely related species recently intercepted in Europe. Here, we present results of a detailed 25-month long study where we biweekly sampled pupae and fourth instar larvae of these two species from ovitraps set along Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. This setting allowed us to ask whether these species had different responses to changes in environmental variables along the altitudinal gradient of an urban hill. We found that spatially Ae. albopictus abundance decreased, while Ae. flavopictus abundance increased, the further away from urban land. Ae. flavopictus also was more abundant than Ae. albopictus in locations with homogenous vegetation growth with a high mean Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), platykurtic EVI, and low SD in canopy cover, while Ae. albopictus was more abundant than Ae. flavopictus in areas with more variable (high SD) canopy cover. Moreover, Ae. flavopictus abundance negatively impacted the spatial abundance of Ae. albopictus. Temporally we found that Ae. flavopictus was more likely to be present in Mt. Konpira at lower temperatures than Ae. albopictus. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal abundance patterns of these two mosquito species are partially driven by their different response to environmental factors.

Naturally Occurring Microbiota in Dengue Vector Mosquito Breeding Habitats and Their Use as Diet Organisms by Developing Larvae in the Kandy District, Sri Lanka

Naturally occurring microbiota in mosquito larval habitats are among biotic factors which affect the population dynamics of developing larvae. Many microbiota species serve as food items for vector mosquito larvae, and food limitations within habitats adversely affect larval survival, developmental rate, adult fitness, and thereby vector competence. Therefore, identification of microbiota as associates with larvae reveals their relationship between each other as parasites, pathogens, epibionts, or diet organisms. Analysis of associated microbiota species in the dengue vector larval breeding habitats (n = 40) and the mosquito larval gut content were conducted in Kandy District in Sri Lanka. Study revealed that a total of 22 microbiota species belong to nine phyla (Amoebozoa, Bacillariophyta, Ciliophora, Chlorophyta, Sarcodina, Cyanobacteria/Cyanophyta, Euglenozoa, Ochrophyta/Heterokontophyta, and Rotifera) were encountered from different Ae. aegypti mosquito breeding habitats while 26 microbiota species that belonged to ten phyla were recorded from Ae. albopictus mosquito breeding habitats with one additional phylum Arthropoda. Considering Ae. aegypti breeding habitats, only Philodina citrina in low roof gutters existed as constant species. Considering Aedes albopictus breeding habitats, Volvox aureus in plastic containers, Lecane luna in coconut shells, Phacus pleuronectes in concrete slabs, and Pinnularia sp. in tree holes existed as constant species. The rest of the microbiota existed as common or accidental/rare species in a variety of habitat types. The Shannon-Weiner diversity (21.01 and 19.36) and gamma diversity (eight and eight) of the microbiota associated with Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae, respectively, in ponds were found to be higher than other types of breeding habitats recorded during the study. Twelve microbiota species were recorded from larval gut analysis as food organisms of both species of mosquito larvae. However, the distribution of gut microbiota species differed between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Chi - square = 21.294, P = 0.002). Identification of microbiota as food items of vector mosquito larvae led to a focus on larval food limitation by introducing food competitors, which could be a potential additional tool for integrated vector control approaches within the country.

Synchrony of globally invasive Aedes spp. immature mosquitoes along an urban altitudinal gradient in their native range

Mosquito-borne infections often have concerted peaks, or are synchronous, across landscapes. This phenomenon might be driven by vector responses to similar environmental conditions that synchronize their abundance. While adult mosquito populations can be synchronous over spatial scales ranging from a few meters to a few kilometers, little to nothing is known about immature mosquito synchrony, including its relationship with mosquito colonization and persistence in larval habitats. Here, we present results from a 2-yearlong synchrony study in co-occurring populations of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus Yamada and Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald), three invasive mosquito species, along an urban altitudinal gradient in Japan. We found that Ae. albopictus was asynchronous while Ae. flavopictus and Ae. j. japonicus had synchrony that, respectively, tracked geographic and altitudinal patterns of temperature correlation. Spatially, Ae. albopictus was more persistent at hotter locations near urban land use, while Ae. j. japonicus and Ae. flavopictus increasingly persisted farther away from urban land. Temporally, Ae. albopicus and Ae. flavopictus decreased the proportion of colonized habitats following variable rainfall, while Ae. j. japonicus increased with vegetation growth and leptokurtic temperatures. Our results support the hypothesis that immature mosquito synchrony is autonomous from dispersal and driven by common environmental conditions.

The influence of weather and weather variability on mosquito abundance and infection with West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas, USA

Early warning systems for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) prediction are an ecological application where data from the interface of several environmental components can be used to predict future VBD transmission. In general, models for early warning systems only consider average environmental conditions ignoring variation in weather variables, despite the prediction from Schmalhausen's law about the importance of environmental variability for biological systems. We present results from a long-term mosquito surveillance program from Harris County, Texas, USA, where we use time series analysis techniques to study the abundance and West Nile virus (WNV) infection patterns in the local primary vector, Culex quinquefasciatus Say. We found that, as predicted by Schmalhausen's law, mosquito abundance was associated with the standard deviation and kurtosis of environmental variables. By contrast, WNV infection rates were associated with 8-month lagged temperature, suggesting environmental conditions during overwintering might be key for WNV amplification during summer outbreaks. Finally, model validation showed that seasonal autoregressive models successfully predicted mosquito WNV infection rates up to 2 months ahead, but did rather poorly at predicting mosquito abundance, a result that might reflect impacts of vector control for mosquito population reduction, geographic scale, and other artifacts generated by operational constraints of mosquito surveillance systems.

Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya

Background

The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.

Methods and findings

We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios.

Under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO₂], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO₂] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.

Conclusions

Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO₂] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.

Landscape and Environmental Factors Influencing Stage Persistence and Abundance of the Bamboo Mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Diptera: Culicidae), across an Altitudinal Gradient

The bamboo mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Yamada) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a common insect across East Asia. Several studies have looked at the ecology of Tr. bambusa developmental stages separately, but little is known about the factors associated with the persistence (how often) and abundance (how many individuals) of Tr. bambusa stages simultaneously studied across a heterogeneous landscape. Here, we ask what environmental and landscape factors are associated with the persistence and abundance of Tr. bambusa stages across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki City, Japan. During a season-long study we counted 8065 (7297 4th instar larvae, 670 pupae and 98 adults) Tr. bambusa mosquitoes. We found that persistence and abundance patterns were not associated among stages, with the exception of large (4th instar) and small (1st to 3rd instars) larvae persistence, which were positively correlated. We also found that relative humidity was associated with the persistence of Tr. bambusa aquatic stages, being positively associated with large and small larvae, but negatively with pupae. Similarly, landscape aspect changed from positive to negative the sign of its association with Tr. bambusa pupae and adults, highlighting that environmental associations change with life stage. Meanwhile, Tr. bambusa abundance patterns were negatively impacted by more variable microenvironments, as measured by the negative impacts of kurtosis and standard deviation (SD) of environmental variables, indicating Tr. bambusa thrives in stable environments, suggesting this mosquito species has a finely grained response to environmental changes.

Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.

Mapping potential Anopheles gambiae s.l. larval distribution using remotely sensed climatic and environmental variables in Baringo, Kenya

Anopheles gambiae s.l. (Diptera: Culicidae) is responsible for the transmission of the devastating Plasmodium falciparum (Haemosporida: Plasmodiidae) strain of malaria in Africa. This study investigated the relationship between climate and environmental conditions and An. gambiae s.l. larvae abundance and modelled the larval distribution of this species in Baringo County, Kenya. Mosquito larvae were collected using a 350-mL dipper and a pipette once per month from December 2015 to December 2016. A random forest algorithm was used to generate vegetation cover classes. A negative binomial regression was used to model the association between remotely sensed climate (rainfall and temperature) and environmental (vegetation cover, vegetation health, topographic wetness and slope) factors and An. gambiae s.l. for December 2015. Anopheles gambiae s.l. was significantly more frequent in the riverine zone (P < 0.05, r = 0.59) compared with the lowland zone. Rainfall (b = 6.22, P < 0.001), slope (b = - 4.81, P = 0.012) and vegetation health (b = - 5.60, P = 0.038) significantly influenced the distribution of An. gambiae s.l. larvae. High An. gambiae s.l. abundance was associated with cropland and wetland environments. Effective malaria control will require zone-specific interventions such as a focused dry season vector control strategy in the riverine zone.

Population Dynamics of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) at Ipetí-Guna, a Village in a Region Targeted for Malaria Elimination in Panamá

Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann is a major malaria vector in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean whose population dynamics, in response to changing environments, has been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present monthly adult and larvae data collected from May 2016 to December 2017 in Ipetí-Guna, a village within an area targeted for malaria elimination in the República de Panamá. During the study period we collected a total of 1678 Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (1602 adults and 76 larvae). Over 95% of the collected Anopheles spp. mosquitoes were An. albimanus. Using time series analysis techniques, we found that population dynamics of larvae and adults were not significantly correlated with each other at any time lag, though correlations were highest at one month lag between larvae and adults and four months lag between adults and larvae. Larvae population dynamics had cycles of three months and were sensitive to changes in temperature with 5 months lag, while adult abundance was correlated with itself (1 month lag) and with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with three months lag. A key observation from our study is the absence of both larvae and adults of An. albimanus between January and April from environments associated with Guna population’s daily activities, which suggests this time window could be the best time to implement elimination campaigns aimed at clearing Plasmodium spp. parasites from Guna populations using, for example, mass drug administration.

Increased Adult Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance in a Dengue Transmission Hotspot, Compared to a Coldspot, within Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

The assumption that vector abundance differences might drive spatial and temporal heterogeneities in vector-borne disease transmission is common, though data supporting it is scarce. Here, we present data from two common mosquito species Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Culex quinquefasciatus Say, biweekly sampled as adults, from March 2016 through December 2017, with BG-sentinel traps in two neighboring districts of Kaohsiung City (KC), Taiwan. One district has historically been a dengue transmission hotspot (Sanmin), and the other a coldspot (Nanzih). We collected a total 41,027 mosquitoes, and we found that average mosquito abundance (mean ± S.D.) was higher in Sanmin (Ae. aegypti: 9.03 ± 1.46; Cx. quinquefasciatus: 142.57 ± 14.38) than Nanzih (Ae. aegypti: 6.21 ± 0.47; Cx. quinquefasciatus: 63.37 ± 8.71) during the study period. In both districts, Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics were sensitive to changes in temperature, the most platykurtic environmental variable at KC during the study period, a pattern predicted by Schmalhausen’s law, which states that organisms are more sensitive to small changes in environmental variables whose average value is more uncertain than its extremes. Our results also suggest that differences in Ae. aegypti abundance might be responsible for spatial differences in dengue transmission at KC. Our comparative approach, where we also observed a significant increment in the abundance of Cx. quinquefasciatus in the dengue transmission hotspot, suggests this area might be more likely to experience outbreaks of other vector borne diseases and should become a primary focus for vector surveillance and control.

Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat

BACKGROUND

With climate change, mean annual air temperatures are getting hotter and extreme weather events will become more and more common in most parts of the world.

OBJECTIVES

As part of the EU funded project HEAT-SHIELD we conducted a systematic review to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of global warming-related heat exposure on workers' health and productivity.

METHODS

Three separate searches, focused, respectively, on: i) heat-related illness (HRI), cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases; ii) traumatic injuries; and iii) vector-borne diseases or vectors distribution, were conducted in PubMed. EMBASE was also consulted to retrieve relevant studies focused on the health effects of climate change. A fourth search strategy to assess the effects on work productivity was conducted both in PubMed and in the SCOPUS database.

RESULTS

A significant proportion of studies reported findings regarding the Mesoamerican nephropathy issue. This is a disease occurring especially among young and middle-aged male sugarcane workers, without conventional risk factors for chronic kidney disease. For injuries, there is a reversed U-shaped exposure-response relationship between Tmax and overall daily injury claims. Outdoor workers are at increased risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, as a positive correlation between higher air temperatures and current or future expansion of the habitat of vectors is being observed. As for productivity, agriculture and construction are the most studied sectors; a day with temperatures exceeding 32°C can reduce daily labour supply in exposed sectors by up to 14%.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings should inform development of further research and related health policies in the EU and beyond with regard to protecting working people from the effects of workplace heat during climate change.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Distribution of the Mosquito Communities (Diptera: Culicidae) in Oviposition Traps Introduced into the Atlantic Forest in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The Atlantic Rainforest of South America is one of the major biodiversity hotspots of the world and serves as a place of residence for a wide variety of Culicidae species. Mosquito studies in the natural environment are of considerable importance because of their role in transmitting pathogens to both humans and other vertebrates. Community diversity can have significant effects on the risk of their disease transmission. The objective of this study was to understand the distribution of mosquito communities using oviposition traps in a region of the Atlantic Forest. Sampling was carried out in Bom Retiro Private Natural Reserve (RPPNBR), located in Casimiro de Abreu, Rio de Janeiro, using oviposition traps, which were set in the forest environment, from October 2015 to December 2016. The canonical correspondence analysis was used to assess the influence of the climatic variables (precipitation, maximum dew point, and direction) throughout the seasons on the population density of the mosquito species. The results showed that population density was directly influenced by climatic variables, which acted as a limiting factor for the mosquito species studied. The climatic variables that were significantly correlated with the density of the mosquito species were precipitation, maximum dew point, and direction. Haemagogus janthinomys was positively correlated with the three climatic variables, whereas Haemagogus leucocelaenus was positively correlated with precipitation and maximum dew point, and negatively correlated with direction.

Density Dependence, Landscape, and Weather Impacts on Aquatic Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Along an Urban Altitudinal Gradient

The Asian Bush Mosquito, Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald) is an important globally invasive mosquito species. In comparison with other major invasive mosquitoes, relatively little is known about Ae. j. japonicus population dynamics in the field. Here, we present results from a 54-biweek long study of Ae. j. japonicus abundance in ovitraps set across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that Ae. j. japonicus fourth instar larvae (Aj4il) were more abundant at the base and top of Mt. Konpira and in ovitraps with more platykurtic water temperature (WT) distributions. In contrast, we found that temporally Aj4il were more abundant when ovitrap WT was more leptokurtic with 2 weeks of lag, and with high relative humidity SD with 2 months of lag. We also found that Aj4il were unlikely present when ovitrap WT was below 12.41°C. Parameter estimates for the Ricker model suggested that Ae. j. japonicus population growth was under density-dependence regulation, with a stable population dynamics whose fluctuations were associated with changes in ovitrap WT kurtosis and demographic stochasticity. Our results suggest that Aj4il abundance is more sensitive to temperature changes in kurtosis than mean values, potentially limiting the predictive ability of Ae. j. japonicus niche models based on the increase of average temperatures with global warming, and suggesting this mosquito species has a relatively coarse-grained response to temperature changes.

Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá

BACKGROUND

Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

RESULTS

Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.

Overwintering in the Bamboo Mosquito Tripteroides bambusa (Diptera: Culicidae) During a Warm, But Unpredictably Changing, Winter

The bamboo mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Yamada) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a common insect across forested landscapes in Japan. Several studies have reported its overwintering as larvae and eggs, in both natural and artificial water containers. Nevertheless, it is unclear how sensitive this mosquito species is to changes in weather patterns associated with global warming. The El Niño event of 2015 through 2016 was one of the strongest on record and provided an ideal scenario for observations on the overwintering of the bamboo mosquito during a winter predicted to be unusually warm. Thus, we set oviposition traps in mid October 2015 and made weekly observations, from December 2015 to May 2016, on bamboo mosquito larval recruitment and pupation in Nagasaki, Japan. We found that larvae were pupating as late as the first week of January (prior records from the study site indicated mosquito pupation ended by mid-late October) and that pupation resumed in mid April (one month earlier than previous records at the study site). We also found that fourth instar larvae were able to survive in frozen oviposition traps following an extremely unusual snowstorm and cold spell and that recruitment of larvae from eggs happened after this unusual event. Our analysis suggested that overwintering and metamorphosis of the bamboo mosquito is sensitive to average and extreme temperatures, the latter measured by temperature kurtosis. Our results highlight the need to better understand changes in overwintering strategies in insects, and associated trade-offs and impacts on population dynamics, in light of climate change.

The associations between malaria, interventions, and the environment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission is driven by multiple factors, including complex and multifaceted connections between malaria transmission, socioeconomic conditions, climate and interventions. Forecasting models should account for all significant drivers of malaria incidence although it is first necessary to understand the relationship between malaria burden and the various determinants of risk to inform the development of forecasting models. In this study, the associations between malaria risk, environmental factors, and interventions were evaluated through a systematic review.

METHODS

Five electronic databases (CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses) were searched for studies that included both the effects of the environment and interventions on malaria within the same statistical model. Studies were restricted to quantitative analyses and health outcomes of malaria mortality or morbidity, outbreaks, or transmission suitability. Meta-analyses were conducted on a subset of results using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Eleven studies of 2248 potentially relevant articles that met inclusion criteria were identified for the systematic review and two meta-analyses based upon five results each were performed. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was not found to be statistically significant associated with malaria with a pooled OR of 1.10 (95% CI 0.07, 1.71). Bed net ownership was statistically associated with decreasing risk of malaria, when controlling for the effects of environment with a pooled OR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.60, 0.95). In general, environmental effects on malaria, while controlling for the effect of interventions, were variable and showed no particular pattern. Bed nets ownership, use and distribution, have a significant protective effect while controlling for environmental variables.

CONCLUSIONS

There are a limited number of studies which have simultaneously evaluated both environmental and interventional effects on malaria risk. Poor statistical reporting and a lack of common metrics were important challenges for this review, which must be addressed to ensure reproducibility and quality research. A comprehensive or inclusive approach to identifying malaria determinants using standardized indicators would allow for a better understanding of its epidemiology, which is crucial to improve future malaria risk estimations.

Frequency of Aedes sp. Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae) and Associated Entomofauna in Bromeliads from a Forest Patch within a densely Urbanized Area

Little is known about the relationship between the presence of Aedes, abiotic factors and the entomofauna existing in phytotelmatas. The aim of this study was to identify biotic and abiotic factors associated with the presence of Aedes in bromeliads sites located in a forest fragment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the study area, eight bromeliads from the Aechmea genus were chosen and kept in landscape form. Physical and chemical variables were measured. Collected aquatic insects were identified according to the literature. A total of 3102 immature insects were collected. The presence of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (2.29%) was rare. Few specimens were found concentrated in urban-adjacent areas during summer. On the other hand, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (17.57%) was found throughout the year in 0%-80% of the sites, averaging 1.0 mosq/bromelia. Aedes albopictus was found predominantly in central sites of the forest fragment. The Canonical Correspondence Analysis indicates that most taxa had a moderate association with temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH. The abiotic variables, such as temperature and dissolved oxygen, affect the distribution of the genus Aedes vectors, while most of the other variables did not.

Temporal dynamic of malaria in a suburban area along the Niger River

Background

Even if rainfall and temperature are factors classically associated to malaria, little is known about other meteorological factors, their variability and combinations related to malaria, in association with river height variations. Furthermore, in suburban area, urbanization and growing population density should be assessed in relation to these environmental factors. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of combined environmental, meteorological and hydrological factors on malaria incidence through time in the context of urbanization.

Methods

Population observational data were prospectively collected. Clinical malaria was defined as the presence of parasites in addition to clinical symptoms. Meteorological and hydrological factors were measured daily. For each factors variation indices were estimated. Urbanization was yearly estimated assessing satellite imaging and field investigations. Principal component analysis was used for dimension reduction and factors combination. Lags between malaria incidences and the main components were assessed by cross-correlation functions. Generalized additive model was used to assess relative impact of different environmental components, taking into account lags, and modelling non-linear relationships. Change-point analysis was used to determine transmission periods within years.

Results

Malaria incidences were dominated by annual periodicity and varied through time without modification of the dynamic, with no impact of the urbanization. The main meteorological factor associated with malaria was a combination of evaporation, humidity and rainfall, with a lag of 3 months. The relationship between combined temperature factors showed a linear impact until reaching high temperatures limiting malaria incidence, with a lag 3.25 months. Height and variation of the river were related to malaria incidence (respectively 6 week lag and no lag).

Conclusions

The study emphasizes no decreasing trend of malaria incidence despite accurate access to care and control strategies in accordance to international recommendations. Furthermore, no decreasing trend was showed despite the urbanization of the area. Malaria transmission remain increase 3 months after the beginning of the dry season. Addition to evaporation versus humidity/rainfall, nonlinear relationship for temperature and river height and variations have to be taken into account when implementing malaria control programmes.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Malaria Epidemic in Mainland China, 2004-2014

The purpose of this study is to characterize spatiotemporal heterogeneities in malaria distribution at a provincial level and investigate the association between malaria incidence and climate factors from 2004 to 2014 in China to inform current malaria control efforts. National malaria incidence peaked (4.6/100,000) in 2006 and decreased to a very low level (0.21/100,000) in 2014, and the proportion of imported cases increased from 16.2% in 2004 to 98.2% in 2014. Statistical analyses of global and local spatial autocorrelations and purely spatial scan statistics revealed that malaria was localized in Hainan, Anhui, and Yunnan during 2004-2009 and then gradually shifted and clustered in Yunnan after 2010. Purely temporal clusters shortened to less than 5 months during 2012-2014. The two most likely clusters detected using spatiotemporal analysis occurred in Anhui between July 2005 and November 2007 and Yunnan between January 2010 and June 2012. Correlation coefficients for the association between malaria incidence and climate factors sharply decreased after 2010, and there were zero-month lag effects for climate factors during 2010-2014. Overall, the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria in China changed from relatively scattered (2004-2009) to relatively clustered (2010-2014). As the proportion of imported cases increased, the effect of climate factors on malaria incidence has gradually become weaker since 2011. Therefore, new warning systems should be applied to monitor resurgence and outbreaks of malaria in mainland China, and quarantine at borders should be reinforced to control the increasingly trend of imported malaria cases.

New frontiers for environmental epidemiology in a changing world

BACKGROUND

In the next 25years, transformative changes, in particular the rapid pace of technological development and data availability, will require environmental epidemiologists to prioritize what should (rather than could) be done to most effectively improve population health.

OBJECTIVES

In this essay, we map out key driving forces that will shape environmental epidemiology in the next 25years. We also identify how the field should adapt to best take advantage of coming opportunities and prepare for challenges.

DISCUSSION

Future environmental epidemiologists will face a world shaped by longer lifespans but also larger burdens of chronic health conditions; shifting populations by region and into urban areas; and global environmental change. Rapidly evolving technologies, particularly in sensors and OMICs, will present opportunities for the field. How should it respond? We argue, the field best adapts to a changing world by focusing on healthy aging; evidence gaps, especially in susceptible populations and low-income countries; and by developing approaches to better handle complexity and more formalized analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental epidemiology informing disease prevention will continue to be valuable. However, the field must adapt to remain relevant. In particular, the field must ensure that public health importance drives research questions, while seizing the opportunities presented by new technologies. Environmental epidemiologists of the future will require different, refined skills to work effectively across disciplines, ask the right questions, and implement appropriate study designs in a data-rich world.

Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination

Background

Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively.

Methods

Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland’s National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM).

Results

The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission.

Conclusions

This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed projected climate change-driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region.

METHODS

We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic.

RESULTS

Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.

Assessing the Risk Factors Associated with Malaria in the Highlands of Ethiopia: What Do We Need to Know?

Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003⁻2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low malaria transmission areas of Ethiopia by 2020. However, while the overall malaria prevalence has decreased, unpredictable outbreaks increasingly occur irregularly in regions previously considered "malaria-free". Such outbreaks have disastrous consequences on populations of these regions as they have no immunity against malaria. The Amhara Region accounts for 31% of Ethiopia's malaria burden and is targeted for malaria elimination by the FMoH. Amhara's epidemiological surveillance system faces many challenges to detect in a timely manner the unpredictable and irregular malaria outbreaks that occur in areas of otherwise low transmission. Despite the evidence of a shift in malaria transmission patterns, Amhara's malaria control interventions remain constrained to areas that are historically known to have stable malaria transmission. This paper discusses the influence of temperature and precipitation variability, entomological parameters, and human population mobility on malaria transmission patterns across the Amhara Region, and in particular, in areas of unstable transmission. We argue that malaria epidemiological surveillance systems can be improved by accounting for population movements in addition to environmental and entomological factors. However, to date, no study has statistically analyzed the interplay of population dynamics on environmental and entomological drivers of malaria transmission.

Spatial changes in the distribution of malaria vectors during the past 5 decades in Iran

BACKGROUND

Global warming and climate change affect various aspects of mankind, including public health. Anopheles mosquitoes are of Public Health importance and can be affected by global warming and other environmental variables. Here, we studied the distribution of Anopheles vectors of malaria in relation to environmental variables in Iran.

METHODS

Long-term meteorological and entomological data of about 50 years in retrospect were collected and arranged in a geo-database and analyzed using ArcGIS ver. 9.3 and exported to SPSS ver. 20 for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Distribution maps have been updated for seven species of Anopheles vectors of malaria which involved Anopheles culicifacies s.l., An. fluviatilis s.l., An. stephensi, An. dthali, An. sacharovi, An. maculipennis.l. and An. superpictus in Iran. Distribution maps of vectors were made based on district areas using Kriging model. Historical and recent records were demonstrated for each Anopheles based on climatic factors in the distribution areas of each Anopheles vectors.

DISCUSSION

Iran, like other parts of the world is faced with warming and this probably affected the distribution of Anopheles vectors. Despite the warming phenomenon, the country's climate had changed during the cold season as temperatures became colder or cooler. This study shows that some vectors had migrated from the central part of Iran with dry and sunny landscape, moved towards the mountainous areas of the north or the warm and humid areas of the south. Historical records show that these anophelines have previously been distributed in lowland areas. If this process continues in the future, Anopheles mosquitoes may be seen in low lands with cold areas in central and northern parts of the country or will occupy humid and warm climates in the southern parts of the country where water is more available.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change.

RESULTS

Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model.

CONCLUSIONS

A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

Population Genetic Structure of Aedes fluviatilis (Diptera: Culicidae)

Although Aedes fluviatilis is an anthropophilic mosquito found abundantly in urban environments, its biology, epidemiological potential and genetic characteristics are poorly understood. Climate change and urbanization processes that result in environmental modifications benefit certain anthropophilic mosquito species such as Ae. fluviatilis, greatly increasing their abundance in urban areas. To gain a better understanding of whether urbanization processes modulate the genetic structure of this species in the city of São Paulo, we used eight microsatellite loci to genetically characterize Ae. fluviatilis populations collected in nine urban parks in the city of São Paulo. Our results show that there is high gene flow among the populations of this species, heterozygosity deficiency and low genetic structure and that the species may have undergone a recent population expansion. There are two main hypotheses to explain these findings: (i) Ae. fluviatilis populations have undergone a population expansion as a result of urbanization; and (ii) as urbanization of the city of São Paulo occurred recently and was quite intense, the structuring of these populations cannot be observed yet, apart from in the populations of Ibirapuera and Piqueri parks, where the first signs of structuring have appeared. We believe that the expansion found in Ae. fluviatilis populations is probably correlated with the unplanned urbanization of the city of São Paulo, which transformed green areas into urbanized areas, as well as the increasing population density in the city.

Morphometric Wing Characters as a Tool for Mosquito Identification

Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of important infectious diseases, causing millions of deaths every year and endangering approximately 3 billion people around the world. As such, precise identification of mosquito species is crucial for an understanding of epidemiological patterns of disease transmission. Currently, the most common method of mosquito identification relies on morphological taxonomic keys, which do not always distinguish cryptic species. However, wing geometric morphometrics is a promising tool for the identification of vector mosquitoes, sibling and cryptic species included. This study therefore sought to accurately identify mosquito species from the three most epidemiologically important mosquito genera using wing morphometrics. Twelve mosquito species from three epidemiologically important genera (Aedes, Anopheles and Culex) were collected and identified by taxonomic keys. Next, the right wing of each adult female mosquito was removed and photographed, and the coordinates of eighteen digitized landmarks at the intersections of wing veins were collected. The allometric influence was assessed, and canonical variate analysis and thin-plate splines were used for species identification. Cross-validated reclassification tests were performed for each individual, and a Neighbor Joining tree was constructed to illustrate species segregation patterns. The analyses were carried out and the graphs plotted with TpsUtil 1.29, TpsRelw 1.39, MorphoJ 1.02 and Past 2.17c. Canonical variate analysis for Aedes, Anopheles and Culex genera showed three clear clusters in morphospace, correctly distinguishing the three mosquito genera, and pairwise cross-validated reclassification resulted in at least 99% accuracy; subgenera were also identified correctly with a mean accuracy of 96%, and in 88 of the 132 possible comparisons, species were identified with 100% accuracy after the data was subjected to reclassification. Our results showed that Aedes, Culex and Anopheles were correctly distinguished by wing shape. For the lower hierarchical levels (subgenera and species), wing geometric morphometrics was also efficient, resulting in high reclassification scores.

Life-table studies revealed significant effects of deforestation on the development and survivorship of Anopheles minimus larvae

BACKGROUND

Many developing countries are experiencing rapid ecological changes such as deforestation and shifting agricultural practices. These environmental changes may have an important consequence on malaria due to their impact on vector survival and reproduction. Despite intensive deforestation and malaria transmission in the China-Myanmar border area, the impact of deforestation on malaria vectors in the border area is unknown.

METHODS

We conducted life table studies on Anopheles minimus larvae to determine the pupation rate and development time in microcosms under deforested, banana plantation, and forested environments.

RESULTS

The pupation rate of An. minimus was 3.8 % in the forested environment. It was significantly increased to 12.5 % in banana plantations and to 52.5 % in the deforested area. Deforestation reduced larval-to-pupal development time by 1.9-3.3 days. Food supplementation to aquatic habitats in forested environments and banana plantations significantly increased larval survival rate to a similar level as in the deforested environment.

CONCLUSION

Deforestation enhanced the survival and development of An. minimus larvae, a major malaria vector in the China-Myanmar border area. Experimental determination of the life table parameters on mosquito larvae under a variety of environmental conditions is valuable to model malaria transmission dynamics and impact by climate and environmental changes.