Future large hydropower dams impact global freshwater megafauna

Dam construction comes with severe social, economic and ecological impacts. From an ecological point of view, habitat types are altered and biodiversity is lost. Thus, to identify areas that deserve major attention for conservation, existing and planned locations for (hydropower) dams were overlapped, at global extent, with the contemporary distribution of freshwater megafauna species with consideration of their respective threat status. Hydropower development will disproportionately impact areas of high freshwater megafauna richness in South America, South and East Asia, and the Balkan region. Sub-catchments with a high share of threatened species are considered to be most vulnerable; these are located in Central America, Southeast Asia and in the regions of the Black and Caspian Sea. Based on this approach, planned dam locations are classified according to their potential impact on freshwater megafauna species at different spatial scales, attention to potential conflicts between climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation are highlighted, and priorities for freshwater management are recommended.

The global decline of freshwater megafauna

Freshwater ecosystems are among the most diverse and dynamic ecosystems on Earth. At the same time, they are among the most threatened ecosystems but remain underrepresented in biodiversity research and conservation efforts. The rate of decline of vertebrate populations is much higher in freshwaters than in terrestrial or marine realms. Freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals that can reach a body mass ≥30 kg) are intrinsically prone to extinction due to their large body size, complex habitat requirements and slow life-history strategies such as long life span and late maturity. However, population trends and distribution changes of freshwater megafauna, at continental or global scales, remain unclear. In the present study, we compiled population data of 126 freshwater megafauna species globally from the Living Planet Database and available literature, and distribution data of 44 species inhabiting Europe and the United States from literature and databases of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and NatureServe. We quantified changes in population abundance and distribution range of freshwater megafauna species. Globally, freshwater megafauna populations declined by 88% from 1970 to 2012, with the highest declines in the Indomalaya and Palearctic realms (-99% and -97%, respectively). Among taxonomic groups, mega-fishes exhibited the greatest global decline (-94%). In addition, freshwater megafauna experienced major range contractions. For example, distribution ranges of 42% of all freshwater megafauna species in Europe contracted by more than 40% of historical areas. We highlight the various sources of uncertainty in tracking changes in populations and distributions of freshwater megafauna, such as the lack of monitoring data and taxonomic and spatial biases. The detected trends emphasize the critical plight of freshwater megafauna globally and highlight the broader need for concerted, targeted and timely conservation of freshwater biodiversity.

Mammalian tolerance to humans is predicted by body mass: evidence from long-term archives

Humans are implicated as a major driver of species extinctions from the Late Pleistocene to the present. However, our predictive understanding of human-caused extinction remains poor due to the restricted temporal and spatial scales at which this process is typically assessed, and the risks of bias due to "extinction filters" resulting from a poor understanding of past species declines. We develop a novel continent-wide data set containing country-level last-occurrence records for 31 European terrestrial mammals across the Holocene (c.11,500 yr BP to present), an epoch of relative climatic stability that captures major transitions in human demography. We analyze regional extirpations against a high-resolution database of human population density (HPD) estimates to identify species-specific tolerances to changing HPD through the Holocene. Mammalian thresholds to HPD scale strongly with body mass, with larger-bodied mammals experiencing regional population losses at lower HPDs than smaller-bodied mammals. Our analysis enables us to identify levels of tolerance to HPD for different species, and therefore has wide applicability for determining biotic vulnerability to human impacts. This ecological pattern is confirmed across wide spatiotemporal scales, providing insights into the dynamics of prehistoric extinctions and the modern biodiversity crisis, and emphasizing the role of long-term archives in understanding human-caused biodiversity loss.

Body size downgrading of mammals over the late Quaternary

Since the late Pleistocene, large-bodied mammals have been extirpated from much of Earth. Although all habitable continents once harbored giant mammals, the few remaining species are largely confined to Africa. This decline is coincident with the global expansion of hominins over the late Quaternary. Here, we quantify mammalian extinction selectivity, continental body size distributions, and taxonomic diversity over five time periods spanning the past 125,000 years and stretching approximately 200 years into the future. We demonstrate that size-selective extinction was already under way in the oldest interval and occurred on all continents, within all trophic modes, and across all time intervals. Moreover, the degree of selectivity was unprecedented in 65 million years of mammalian evolution. The distinctive selectivity signature implicates hominin activity as a primary driver of taxonomic losses and ecosystem homogenization. Because megafauna have a disproportionate influence on ecosystem structure and function, past and present body size downgrading is reshaping Earth's biosphere.

Anthropogenic Extinction Dominates Holocene Declines of West Indian Mammals

The extensive postglacial mammal losses in the West Indies provide an opportunity to evaluate extinction dynamics, but limited data have hindered our ability to test hypotheses. Here, we analyze the tempo and dynamics of extinction using a novel data set of faunal last-appearance dates and human first-appearance dates, demonstrating widespread overlap between humans and now-extinct native mammals. Humans arrived in four waves (Lithic, Archaic, Ceramic, and European), each associated with increased environmental impact. Large-bodied mammals and several bats were extinct by the Archaic, following protracted extinction dynamics perhaps reflecting habitat loss. Most small-bodied rodents and lipotyphlan insectivores survived the Ceramic, but extensive landscape transformation and the introduction of invasive mammals following European colonization caused further extinctions, leaving a threatened remnant fauna. Both large- and small-bodied nonvolant mammals disappeared, reflecting complex relationships between body size, ecology, and anthropogenic change. Extinct bats were generally larger species, paralleling declines from natural catastrophes.

Megafauna and ecosystem function from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

Large herbivores and carnivores (the megafauna) have been in a state of decline and extinction since the Late Pleistocene, both on land and more recently in the oceans. Much has been written on the timing and causes of these declines, but only recently has scientific attention focused on the consequences of these declines for ecosystem function. Here, we review progress in our understanding of how megafauna affect ecosystem physical and trophic structure, species composition, biogeochemistry, and climate, drawing on special features of PNAS and Ecography that have been published as a result of an international workshop on this topic held in Oxford in 2014. Insights emerging from this work have consequences for our understanding of changes in biosphere function since the Late Pleistocene and of the functioning of contemporary ecosystems, as well as offering a rationale and framework for scientifically informed restoration of megafaunal function where possible and appropriate.

Sea otters, kelp forests, and the extinction of Steller's sea cow

The late Pleistocene extinction of so many large-bodied vertebrates has been variously attributed to two general causes: rapid climate change and the effects of humans as they spread from the Old World to previously uninhabited continents and islands. Many large-bodied vertebrates, especially large apex predators, maintain their associated ecosystems through top-down forcing processes, especially trophic cascades, and megaherbivores also exert an array of strong indirect effects on their communities. Thus, a third possibility for at least some of the Pleistocene extinctions is that they occurred through habitat changes resulting from the loss of these other keystone species. Here we explore the plausibility of this mechanism, using information on sea otters, kelp forests, and the recent extinction of Steller's sea cows from the Commander Islands. Large numbers of sea cows occurred in the Commander Islands at the time of their discovery by Europeans in 1741. Although extinction of these last remaining sea cows during early years of the Pacific maritime fur trade is widely thought to be a consequence of direct human overkill, we show that it is also a probable consequence of the loss of sea otters and the co-occurring loss of kelp, even if not a single sea cow had been killed directly by humans. This example supports the hypothesis that the directly caused extinctions of a few large vertebrates in the late Pleistocene may have resulted in the coextinction of numerous other species.

Pleistocene Overkill and North American Mammalian Extinctions

Clovis groups in Late Pleistocene North America occasionally hunted several now extinct large mammals. But whether their hunting drove 37 genera of animals to extinction has been disputed, largely for want of kill sites. Overkill proponents argue that there is more archaeological evidence than we ought to expect, that humans had the wherewithal to decimate what may have been millions of animals, and that the appearance of humans and the disappearance of the fauna is too striking to be a mere coincidence. Yet, there is less to these claims than meets the eye. Moreover, extinctions took place amid sweeping climatic and environmental changes as the Pleistocene came to an end. It has long been difficult to link those changes to mammalian extinctions, but the advent of ancient DNA, coupled with high-resolution paleoecological, radiocarbon, and archeological records, should help disentangle the relative role of changing climates and people in mammalian extinctions.

Late Pleistocene horse and camel hunting at the southern margin of the ice-free corridor: reassessing the age of Wally's Beach, Canada

The only certain evidence for prehistoric human hunting of horse and camel in North America occurs at the Wally's Beach site, Canada. Here, the butchered remains of seven horses and one camel are associated with 29 nondiagnostic lithic artifacts. Twenty-seven new radiocarbon ages on the bones of these animals revise the age of these kill and butchering localities to 13,300 calibrated y B.P. The tight chronological clustering of the eight kill localities at Wally's Beach indicates these animals were killed over a short period. Human hunting of horse and camel in Canada, coupled with mammoth, mastodon, sloth, and gomphothere hunting documented at other sites from 14,800-12,700 calibrated y B.P., show that 6 of the 36 genera of megafauna that went extinct by approximately 12,700 calibrated y B.P. were hunted by humans. This study shows the importance of accurate geochronology, without which significant discoveries will go unrecognized and the empirical data used to build models explaining the peopling of the Americas and Pleistocene extinctions will be in error.

A review and synthesis of late Pleistocene extinction modeling: progress delayed by mismatches between ecological realism, interpretation, and methodological transparency

Late Pleistocene extinctions occurred globally over a period of about 50,000 years, primarily affecting mammals of > or = 44 kg body mass (i.e., megafauna) first in Australia, continuing in Eurasia and, finally, in the Americas. Polarized debate about the cause(s) of the extinctions centers on the role of climate change and anthropogenic factors (especially hunting). Since the late 1960s, investigators have developed mathematical models to simulate the ecological interactions that might have contributed to the extinctions. Here, we provide an overview of the various methodologies used and conclusions reached in the modeling literature, addressing both the strengths and weaknesses of modeling as an explanatory tool. Although late Pleistocene extinction models now provide a solid foundation for viable future work, we conclude, first, that single models offer less compelling support for their respective explanatory hypotheses than many realize; second, that disparities in methodology (both in terms of model parameterization and design) prevent meaningful comparison between models and, more generally, progress from model to model in increasing our understanding of these extinctions; and third, that recent models have been presented and possibly developed without sufficient regard for the transparency of design that facilitates scientific progress.

Effects of allometry, productivity and lifestyle on rates and limits of body size evolution

Body size affects nearly all aspects of organismal biology, so it is important to understand the constraints and dynamics of body size evolution. Despite empirical work on the macroevolution and macroecology of minimum and maximum size, there is little general quantitative theory on rates and limits of body size evolution. We present a general theory that integrates individual productivity, the lifestyle component of the slow-fast life-history continuum, and the allometric scaling of generation time to predict a clade's evolutionary rate and asymptotic maximum body size, and the shape of macroevolutionary trajectories during diversifying phases of size evolution. We evaluate this theory using data on the evolution of clade maximum body sizes in mammals during the Cenozoic. As predicted, clade evolutionary rates and asymptotic maximum sizes are larger in more productive clades (e.g. baleen whales), which represent the fast end of the slow-fast lifestyle continuum, and smaller in less productive clades (e.g. primates). The allometric scaling exponent for generation time fundamentally alters the shape of evolutionary trajectories, so allometric effects should be accounted for in models of phenotypic evolution and interpretations of macroevolutionary body size patterns. This work highlights the intimate interplay between the macroecological and macroevolutionary dynamics underlying the generation and maintenance of morphological diversity.