Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Reproduction alternation in trees: testing the resource depletion hypothesis using experimental fruit removal in Quercus ilex

The keystones of resource budget models to explain mast seeding are that fruit production depletes tree stored resources, which become subsequently limiting to flower production the following year. These two hypotheses have, however, rarely been tested in forest trees. Using a fruit removal experiment, we tested whether preventing fruit development would increase nutrient and carbohydrates storage and modify allocation to reproduction and vegetative growth the following year. We removed all the fruits from nine adult Quercus ilex L. trees shortly after fruit set and compared, with nine control trees, the concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), zinc (Zn), potassium (K) and starch in leaves, twigs and trunk before, during and after the development of female flowers and fruits. The following year, we measured the production of vegetative and reproductive organs as well as their location on the new spring shoots. Fruit removal prevented the depletion of N and Zn in leaves during fruit growth. It also modified the seasonal dynamics in Zn, K and starch in twigs, but had no effect on reserves stored in the trunk. Fruit removal increased the production of female flowers and leaves the following year, and decreased the production of male flowers. Our results show that resource depletion operates differently for male and female flowering, because the timing of organ formation and the positioning of flowers in shoot architecture differ between male and female flowers. Our results suggest that N and Zn availability constrain flower production in Q. ilex, but also that other regulatory pathways might be involved. They strongly encourage further experiments manipulating fruit development over multiple years to describe the causal relationships between variations in resource storage and/or uptake, and male and female flower production in masting species.

Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production ("masting breakdown") which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship-correlation between tree size and viable seed production-has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.

Oak masting drivers vary between populations depending on their climatic environments

Large interannual variation in seed production, called masting, is very common in wind-pollinated tree populations and has profound implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems and the epidemiology of certain human diseases.^1,2,3,4,5 Comparing the reproductive characteristics of populations established in climatically contrasting environments would provide powerful insight into masting mechanisms, but the required data are extremely scarce. We built a database from an unprecedented fine-scale 8-year survey of 150 sessile oak trees (Quercus petraea) from 15 populations distributed over a broad climatic gradient, including individual recordings of annual flowering effort, fruiting rate, and fruit production. Although oak masting was previously considered to depend mainly on fruiting rate variations,^6,7 we show that the female flowering effort is highly variable from year to year and explains most of the fruiting dynamics in two-thirds of the populations. What drives masting was found to differ among populations living under various climates. In soft-climate populations, the fruiting rate increases initially strongly with the flowering effort, and the intensity of masting results mainly from the flowering synchrony level between individuals. By contrast, the fruiting rate of harsh-climate populations depends mainly on spring weather, which ensures intense masting regardless of the flowering synchronization level. Our work highlights the need for jointly measuring flowering effort and fruit production to decipher the diversity of masting mechanisms among populations. Accounting for such diversity will be decisive in proposing accurate, and possibly contrasted, scenarios about future reproductive patterns of perennial plants with ongoing climate change and their numerous cascading effects.

Large investment of stored nitrogen and phosphorus in female cones is consistent with infrequent reproduction events of Pinus koraiensis, a high value woody oil crop in Northeast Asia

Pinus koraiensis is famous for its high-quality timber production all the way and is much more famous for its high value health-care nut oil production potential since 1990's, but the less understanding of its reproduction biology seriously hindered its nut productivity increase. Exploring the effects of reproduction on nutrient uptake, allocation and storage help to understand and modify reproduction patterns in masting species and high nut yield cultivar selection and breeding. Here, we compared seasonality in growth and in nitrogen ([N]) and phosphorus ([P]) concentrations in needles, branches and cones of reproductive (cone-bearing) and vegetative branches (having no cones) of P. koraiensis during a masting year. The growth of one- and two-year-old reproductive branches was significantly higher than that of vegetative branches. Needle, phloem and xylem [N] and [P] were lower in reproductive branches than in vegetative branches, although the extent and significance of the differences between branch types varied across dates. [N] and [P] in most tissues were high in spring, decreased during summer, and then recovered by the end of the growing season. Overall, [N] and [P] were highest in needles, lowest in the xylem and intermediate in the phloem. More than half of the N (73.5%) and P (51.6%) content in reproductive branches were allocated to cones. There was a positive correlation between cone number and N and P content in needles (R² = 0.64, R² = 0.73) and twigs (R² = 0.65, R² = 0.62) of two-year-old reproductive branches. High nutrient sink strength of cones and vegetative tissues of reproductive branches suggested that customized fertilization practices can help improve crop yield in Pinus koraiensis.

By wind or wing: pollination syndromes and alternate bearing in horticultural systems

Cyclical fluctuations in reproductive output are widespread among perennial plants, from multi-year masting cycles in forest trees to alternate bearing in horticultural crops. In natural systems, ecological drivers such as climate and pollen limitation can result in synchrony among plants. Agricultural practices are generally assumed to outweigh ecological drivers that might synchronize alternate-bearing individuals, but this assumption has not been rigorously assessed and little is known about the role of pollen limitation as a driver of synchrony in alternate-bearing crops. We tested whether alternate-bearing perennial crops show signs of alternate bearing at a national scale and whether the magnitude of national-scale alternate bearing differs across pollination syndromes. We analysed the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations time series (1961-2018) of national crop yields across the top-producing countries of 27 alternate-bearing taxa, 6 wind-pollinated and 21 insect-pollinated. Alternate bearing was common in these national data and more pronounced in wind-pollinated taxa, which exhibited a more negative lag-1 autocorrelation and a higher coefficient of variation (CV). We highlight the mutual benefits of integrating ecological theory and agricultural data for (i) advancing our understanding of perennial plant reproduction across time, space and taxa, and (ii) promoting stable farmer livelihoods and global food supply. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.

Extreme summer heat and drought lead to early fruit abortion in European beech

Years with high fruit production, known as mast years, are the usual reproduction strategy of European beech. Harsh weather conditions such as frost during flowering can lead to pollination failure in spring. It has been assumed that mast is controlled by flowering, and that after successful pollination, high amounts of fruits and seeds would be produced. However, the extremely hot and dry European summer of 2018 showed that despite successful pollination, beechnuts did not develop or were only abundant in a few forest stands. An in-depth analysis of three forest sites of European beech from the Swiss Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research Programme over the last 15–19 years revealed for the first time that extreme summer heat and drought can act as an “environmental veto”, leading to early fruit abortion. Within the forest stands in years with fruit abortion, summer mean temperatures were 1.5 °C higher and precipitation sums were 45% lower than the long-term average. Extreme summer heat and drought, together with frost during flowering, are therefore disrupting events of the assumed biennial fruiting cycle in European beech.

Investigating the relationship between climate, stand age, and temporal trends in masting behavior of European forest trees

Masting-temporally variable seed production with high spatial synchrony-is a pervasive strategy in wind-pollinated trees that is hypothesized to be vulnerable to climate change due to its correlation with variability in abiotic conditions. Recent work suggests that aging may also have strong effects on seed production patterns of trees, but this potential confounding factor has not been considered in previous times series analysis of climate change effects. Using a 54 year dataset for seven dominant species in 17 forests across Poland, we used the proportion of seed-producing trees (PST) to contrast the predictions of the climate change and aging hypotheses in Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Quercus petraea, and Quercus robur. Our results show that in all species, PST increased over time and that this change correlated most strongly with stand age, while the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, a measure of drought, contributed to temporal trends in PST of F. sylvatica and Q. robur. Temporal variability of PST also increased over time in all species except P. sylvestris, while trends in temporal autocorrelation and among-stand synchrony reflect species-specific masting strategies. Our results suggest a pivotal role of plant ontogeny in driving not only the extent but also variability and synchrony of reproduction in temperate forest trees. In a time of increasing forest regrowth in Europe, we therefore call for increased attention to demographic effects such as aging on plant reproductive behavior, particularly in studies examining global change effects using long-term time series data.

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: an agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Flower phenology as a disruptor of the fruiting dynamics in temperate oak species

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive success. From a large field monitoring network, we compared the pollen phenology between temperate and Mediterranean oak species. Then, focusing on temperate oak species, we explored the influence of the weather around the time of budburst and flowering on seed production, and simulated with a mechanistic model the consequences that an evolutionary shifting of flower phenology would have on fruiting dynamics. Temperate oak species release pollen earlier in the season than do Mediterranean oak species. Such early flowering in temperate oak species results in pollen often being released during unfavorable weather conditions and frequently results in reproductive failure. If pollen release were delayed as a result of natural selection, fruiting dynamics would exhibit much reduced stochastic variation. We propose that early flower phenology might be adaptive by making mast-seeding years rare and unpredictable, which would greatly help in controlling the dynamics of seed consumers.

Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change

Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is currently implemented in 31 contrasting models to identify the main gaps compared with our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. A hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in the examined models, while physiologically more sophisticated approaches were used less often than empirical ones. The analysis revealed that, although the number of carbon allocation studies over the past 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood and some issues in models are frequently poorly represented, oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilization of nonstructural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge of carbon allocation into defence, regeneration and improved resource uptake in order to better account for changing environmental conditions.

Environmental Veto Synchronizes Mast Seeding in Four Contrasting Tree Species

Synchronized and variable reproduction by perennial plants, called mast seeding, is a major reproductive strategy of trees. The need to accumulate sufficient resources after depletion following fruiting (resource budget), the efficiency of mass flowering for outcross pollination (pollen coupling), or the external factors preventing reproduction (environmental veto) could all synchronize masting. We used seed production data for four species (Quercus ilex, Quercus humilis, Sorbus aucuparia, and Pinus albicaulis) to parametrize resource budget models of masting. Based on species life-history characteristics, we hypothesized that pollen coupling should synchronize reproduction in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis, while in Q. ilex and Q. humilis, environmental veto should be a major factor. Pollen coupling was stronger in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis than in oaks, while veto was more frequent in the latter. Yet in all species, costs of reproduction were too small to impose a replenishment period. A synchronous environmental veto, in the presence of environmental stochasticity, was sufficient to produce observed variability and synchrony in reproduction. In the past, vetoes like frost events that prevent reproduction have been perceived as negative for plants. In fact, they could be selectively favored as a way to create mast seeding.

The ecology of predispersal insect herbivory on tree reproductive structures in natural forest ecosystems

Plant-insect interactions are key model systems to assess how some species affect the distribution, the abundance, and the evolution of others. Tree reproductive structures represent a critical resource for many insect species, which can be likely drivers of demography, spatial distribution, and trait diversification of plants. In this review, we present the ecological implications of predispersal herbivory on tree reproductive structures by insects (PIHR) in forest ecosystems. Both insect's and tree's perspectives are addressed with an emphasis on how spatiotemporal variation and unpredictability in seed availability can shape such particular plant-animal interactions. Reproductive structure insects show strong trophic specialization and guild diversification. Insects evolved host selection and spatiotemporal dispersal strategies in response to variable and unpredictable abundance of reproductive structures in both space and time. If PIHR patterns have been well documented in numerous systems, evidences of the subsequent demographic and evolutionary impacts on tree populations are still constrained by time-scale challenges of experimenting on such long-lived organisms, and modeling approaches of tree dynamics rarely consider PIHR when including biotic interactions in their processes. We suggest that spatially explicit and mechanistic approaches of the interactions between individual tree fecundity and insect dynamics will clarify predictions of the demogenetic implications of PIHR in tree populations. In a global change context, further experimental and theoretical contributions to the likelihood of life-cycle disruptions between plants and their specialized herbivores, and to how these changes may generate novel dynamic patterns in each partner of the interaction are increasingly critical.

Correlated seed failure as an environmental veto to synchronize reproduction of masting plants

Variable, synchronized seed production, called masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants. Resource dynamics, pollination success, and, as described here, environmental veto are possible proximate mechanisms driving masting. We explored the environmental veto hypothesis, which assumes that reproductive synchrony is driven by external factors preventing reproduction in some years, by extending the resource budget model of masting with correlated reproductive failure. We ran this model across its parameter space to explore how key parameters interact to drive seeding dynamics. Next, we parameterized the model based on 16 yr of seed production data for populations of red (Quercus rubra) and white (Quercus alba) oaks. We used these empirical models to simulate seeding dynamics, and compared simulated time series with patterns observed in the field. Simulations showed that resource dynamics and reproduction failure can produce masting even in the absence of pollen coupling. In concordance with this, in both oaks, among-year variation in resource gain and correlated reproductive failure were necessary and sufficient to reproduce masting, whereas pollen coupling, although present, was not necessary. Reproductive failure caused by environmental veto may drive large-scale synchronization without density-dependent pollen limitation. Reproduction-inhibiting weather events are prevalent in ecosystems, making described mechanisms likely to operate in many systems.

Masting in wind-pollinated trees: system-specific roles of weather and pollination dynamics in driving seed production

Masting, the highly variable production of synchronized large seed crops, is a common reproductive strategy in plant populations. In wind-pollinated trees, flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesized to provide the mechanistic link for the well-known relationship between weather and population-level seed production. Several hypotheses make predictions about the effect of weather on annual pollination success. The pollen coupling hypothesis predicts that weather and plant resources drive the flowering effort of trees, which directly translates into the size of seed crops through efficient pollination. In contrast, the pollination Moran effect hypothesis predicts that weather affects pollination efficiency, leading to occasional bumper crops. Furthermore, the recently formulated phenology synchrony hypothesis predicts that Moran effects can arise because of weather effects on flowering synchrony, which, in turn, drives pollination efficiency. We investigated the relationship between weather, airborne pollen, and seed production in common European trees, two oak species (Quercus petraea and Q. robur) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) with a 19-yr data set from three sites in Poland. Our results show that warm summers preceding flowering correlated with high pollen abundance and warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons (i.e., high flowering synchrony) for all three species. Pollen abundance was the best predictor for seed crops in beech, as predicted under pollen coupling. In oaks, short pollen seasons, rather than pollen abundance, correlated with large seed crops, providing support for the pollination Moran effect and phenology synchrony hypotheses. Fundamentally different mechanisms may therefore drive masting in species of the family Fagacae.

Mechanisms of mast seeding: resources, weather, cues, and selection

546 I. 546 II. 547 III. 548 IV. 552 V. 554 VI. 556 VII. 558 VIII. 558 IX. 559 559 References 559 SUMMARY: Mast seeding is a widespread and widely studied phenomenon. However, the physiological mechanisms that mediate masting events and link them to weather and plant resources are still debated. Here, we explore how masting is affected by plant resource budgets, fruit maturation success, and hormonal coordination of cues including weather and resources. There is little empirical support for the commonly stated hypothesis that plants store carbohydrates over several years to expend in a high-seed year. Plants can switch carbohydrates away from growth in high-seed years, and seed crops are more probably limited by nitrogen or phosphorus. Resources are clearly involved in the proximate mechanisms driving masting, but resource budget (RB) models cannot create masting in the absence of selection because some underlying selective benefit is required to set the level of a 'full' seed crop at greater than the annual resource increment. Economies of scale (EOSs) provide the ultimate factor selecting for masting, but EOSs probably always interact with resources, which modify the relationship between weather cues and reproduction. Thus, RB and EOS models are not alternative explanations for masting - both are required. Experiments manipulating processes that affect mast seeding will help clarify the physiological mechanisms that underlie mast seeding.