Emergence of the HIV type 1 epidemic in the twentieth century: comparing hypotheses to evidence

Newly Discovered Archival Data Show Coincidence of a Peak of Sexually Transmitted Diseases with the Early Epicenter of Pandemic HIV-1

To which extent STDs facilitated HIV-1 adaptation to humans, sparking the pandemic, is still unknown. We searched colonial medical records from 1906–1958 for Leopoldville, Belgian Congo, which was the initial epicenter of pandemic HIV-1, compiling counts of treated STD cases in both Africans and Europeans. Almost all Europeans were being treated, while for Africans, generalized treatment started only in 1929. Treated STD counts in Europeans thus reflect STD infection rates more accurately compared to counts in Africans. In Africans, the highest recorded STD treatment incidence was in 1929–1935, declining to low levels in the 1950s. In Europeans, the recorded treatment incidences were highest during the period 1910–1920, far exceeding those in Africans. Europeans were overwhelmingly male and had frequent sexual contact with African females. Consequently, high STD incidence among Europeans must have coincided with high prevalence and incidence in the city’s African population. The data strongly suggest the worst STD period was 1910–1920 for both Africans and Europeans, which coincides with the estimated origin of pandemic HIV-1. Given the strong effect of STD coinfections on HIV transmission, these new data support our hypothesis of a causal effect of STDs on the epidemic emergence of HIV-1.

Hepatitis C virus surveillance and identification of human pegivirus 2 in a large Cameroonian cohort

The prevalence of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the presence of human pegivirus 2 (HPgV-2) have not been examined in Cameroon, although HCV has been associated with HPgV-2 infections previously. Herein we aimed to characterize the burden and genetic diversity of HCV and the presence of HPgV-2 in Cameroon. Retrospective plasma specimens collected from N = 12 369 consenting subjects in South Cameroon from 2013 to 2016 were included in the study. The majority (97.1%) of participants were patients seeking health care. All specimens were screened for HCV using the Abbott RealTime HCV viral load assay and positive specimens with remaining volume were also screened for HPgV-2 antibodies on the Abbott ARCHITECT instrument, followed by molecular characterization. Overall, HCV RNA was detected in 305 (2.47%; 95% CI: 2.21%-2.75%) specimens. Notably, the prevalence of HCV RNA was 9.09% amongst participants over age 40 and 3.81% amongst males. Phylogenetic classification of N = 103 HCV sequences identified genotypes 1 (19.4%), 2 (15.5%) and 4 (65.1%) within the study cohort. Amongst HCV RNA-positive specimens, N = 28 (10.6%; 95% CI: 7.44%-14.90%) specimens also had detectable HPgV-2 antibodies. Of these, N = 2 viremic HPgV-2 infections were confirmed by sequencing and shared 93-94 median % identity with strains found on other continents. This is the first study to determine the prevalence of chronic HCV in Cameroon, and the discovery of HPgV-2 in this study cohort expands the geography of HPgV-2 to the African continent, indicating a widespread distribution exists.

The epidemic emergence of HIV: what novel enabling factors were involved?

Humans acquired retroviruses from simians, mainly through bushmeat handling. All epidemically successful HIV groups started to spread in early 20th century, contrasting with the antiquity of T-cell lymphotropic viruses, implying that novel enabling factors were involved in HIV emergence. Here we review the Parenteral Serial Transmission and the Enhanced Heterosexual Transmission hypotheses for the adaptation and early spread of HIV. Epidemic start roughly coincides in time with peak genital ulcer disease in cities, suggesting a major role for sexual transmission. Only ill-adapted and rare HIV groups emerged after approximately 1950, when injections and transfusions attained their maximal levels, suggesting that if parenteral serial transmission was necessary for HIV adaptation, it had to be complemented by sexual transmission for HIV to reach epidemic potential.

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Male Circumcision and the Epidemic Emergence of HIV-2 in West Africa

BACKGROUND

Epidemic HIV-2 (groups A and B) emerged in humans circa 1930-40. Its closest ancestors are SIVsmm infecting sooty mangabeys from southwestern Côte d'Ivoire. The earliest large-scale serological surveys of HIV-2 in West Africa (1985-91) show a patchy spread. Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau had the highest prevalence rates by then, and phylogeographical analysis suggests they were the earliest epicenters. Wars and parenteral transmission have been hypothesized to have promoted HIV-2 spread. Male circumcision (MC) is known to correlate negatively with HIV-1 prevalence in Africa, but studies examining this issue for HIV-2 are lacking.

METHODS

We reviewed published HIV-2 serosurveys for 30 cities of all West African countries and obtained credible estimates of real prevalence through Bayesian estimation. We estimated past MC rates of 218 West African ethnic groups, based on ethnographic literature and fieldwork. We collected demographic tables specifying the ethnic partition in cities. Uncertainty was incorporated by defining plausible ranges of parameters (e.g. timing of introduction, proportion circumcised). We generated 1,000 sets of past MC rates per city using Latin Hypercube Sampling with different parameter combinations, and explored the correlation between HIV-2 prevalence and estimated MC rate (both logit-transformed) in the 1,000 replicates.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Our survey reveals that, in the early 20th century, MC was far less common and geographically more variable than nowadays. HIV-2 prevalence in 1985-91 and MC rates in 1950 were negatively correlated (Spearman rho = -0.546, IQR: -0.553--0.546, p≤0.0021). Guinea-Bissau and Côte d'Ivoire cities had markedly lower MC rates. In addition, MC was uncommon in rural southwestern Côte d'Ivoire in 1930.The differential HIV-2 spread in West Africa correlates with different historical MC rates. We suggest HIV-2 only formed early substantial foci in cities with substantial uncircumcised populations. Lack of MC in rural areas exposed to bushmeat may have had a role in successful HIV-2 emergence.

'Deadly gonorrhoea': history, collective memory and early HIV epidemiology in East Central Africa

This article combines local oral reminiscences with recent epidemiological literature to sketch a historical context around the onset and expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic in southern Uganda and north-western Tanzania. The local historical imagination has associated the appearance of AIDS in two ways. First, with specific socio-economic structures and circumstances common in the region since the 1960s and their enhancement during the 1970s due to economic changes at national and global levels. Second, the epidemic is associated with changes in the epidemiological situation. Local perspectives are supported by recent phylogenetic research and circumstantial historical evidence, on the basis of which a hypothesis on the expansion of HIV-1 in East Central Africa (southern Uganda, north-western Tanzania, Rwanda) is presented.

Epidemiology of HIV among female sex workers, their clients, men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs in West and Central Africa

Introduction

The West and Central Africa (WCA) sub-region is the most populous region of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with an estimated population of 356 million living in 24 countries. The HIV epidemic in WCA appears to have distinct dynamics compared to the rest of SSA, being more concentrated among key populations such as female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and clients of FSWs. To explore the epidemiology of HIV in the region, a systematic review of HIV literature among key populations in WCA was conducted since the onset of the HIV epidemic.

Methods

We searched the databases PubMed, CINAHL and others for peer-reviewed articles regarding FSWs, MSM and PWID in 24 countries with no date restriction. Inclusion criteria were sensitive and focused on inclusion of any HIV prevalence data among key populations. HIV prevalence was pooled, and in each country key themes were extracted from the literature.

Results

The search generated 885 titles, 214 abstracts and 122 full articles, of which 76 met inclusion and exclusion criteria providing HIV prevalence data. There were 60 articles characterizing the burden of disease among FSWs, eight for their clients, one for both, six for MSM and one for PWID. The pooled HIV prevalence among FSWs was 34.9% (n=14,388/41,270), among their clients was 7.3% (n=435/5986), among MSM was 17.7% (n=656/3714) and among PWID from one study in Nigeria was 3.8% (n=56/1459).

Conclusions

The disproportionate burden of HIV among FSWs appears to be consistent from the beginning of the HIV epidemic in WCA. While there are less data for other key populations such as clients of FSWs and MSM, the prevalence of HIV is higher among these men compared to other men in the region. There have been sporadic reports among PWID, but limited research on the burden of HIV among these men and women. These data affirm that the HIV epidemic in WCA appears to be far more concentrated among key populations than the epidemics in Southern and Eastern Africa. Evidence-based HIV prevention, treatment and care programmes in WCA should focus on engaging populations with the greatest burden of disease in the continuum of HIV care.

Iatrogenic blood-borne viral infections in refugee children from war and transition zones

Pediatric infectious disease clinicians in industrialized countries may encounter iatrogenically transmitted HIV, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus infections in refugee children from Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The consequences of political collapse and/or civil war—work migration, prostitution, intravenous drug use, defective public health resources, and poor access to good medical care—all contribute to the spread of blood-borne viruses. Inadequate infection control practices by medical establishments can lead to iatrogenic infection of children. Summaries of 4 cases in refugee children in Australia are a salient reminder of this problem.

Enhanced heterosexual transmission hypothesis for the origin of pandemic HIV-1

HIV-1 M originated from SIVcpz endemic in chimpanzees from southeast Cameroon or neighboring areas, and it started to spread in the early 20th century. Here we examine the factors that may have contributed to simian-to-human transmission, local transmission between humans, and export to a city. The region had intense ape hunting, social disruption, commercial sex work, STDs, and traffic to/from Kinshasa in the period 1899-1923. Injection treatments increased sharply around 1930; however, their frequency among local patients was far lower than among modern groups experiencing parenteral HIV-1 outbreaks. Recent molecular datings of HIV-1 M fit better the period of maximal resource exploitation and trade links than the period of high injection intensity. We conclude that although local parenteral outbreaks might have occurred, these are unlikely to have caused massive transmission. World War I led to additional, and hitherto unrecognized, risks of HIV-1 emergence. We propose an Enhanced Heterosexual Transmission Hypothesis for the origin of HIV-1 M, featuring at the time and place of its origin a coincidence of favorable co-factors (ape hunting, social disruption, STDs, and mobility) for both cross-species transmission and heterosexual spread. Our hypothesis does not exclude a role for parenteral transmission in the initial viral adaptation.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1, HIV-2 and simian immunodeficiency virus Nef proteins

The genomes of all retroviruses encode the Gag Pol and Env structural proteins. Human and simian lentiviruses have acquired non-structural proteins among which Nef plays a major role in the evolution of viral infection towards an immunodeficiency syndrome. Indeed, in the absence of a functional nef gene, primate lentiviruses are far less pathogenic than their wild type counterparts. The multiple protein-protein interactions in which Nef is involved all contribute to explain the role played by Nef in HIV- and SIV-associated disease progression. This review summarizes common and distinct features among Nef proteins and how they contribute to increasing HIV and SIV fitness towards their respective hosts.

High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains

The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5-2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20(th) century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20(th) century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20(th) century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.

Predominance of hepatitis C virus genotype 4 infection and rapid transmission between 1935 and 1965 in the Central African Republic

The molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Central African Republic (CAR) is poorly documented. Thus, we conducted phylogenetic analyses of NS5B gene sequences from 58 HCV-infected inhabitants of a remote area of south-west CAR, which indicated that 48 (82.8%) were infected with genotype 4 (HCV-4), five (8.6%) with genotype 2 and five (8.6%) with genotype 1. HCV-4 strains were highly heterogeneous, containing previously described subtypes 4k (48%), 4c (27%), 4r (4%), 4f (4%) and unclassified subtypes (17%). To estimate the epidemic history of these HCV-4 strains, an evolutionary analysis using the coalescent approach was used. The estimated date of the most recent common ancestor of the CAR HCV-4 strains was 1539 (95% confidence intervals, 1317-1697). They exhibited a rapid, exponential spread from 1935 to 1965, simultaneously with what was recently reported in neighbouring Cameroon and Gabon. The hypothesis of a massive iatrogenic transmission during interventions for the control of endemic tropical diseases is discussed.

High prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection and predominance of genotype 4 in rural Gabon

Hepatitis C (HCV) molecular epidemiology is documented poorly in central African countries. In response to this, a population-based study of 319 consenting adults resident in a remote village of Gabon was undertaken (mean age: 38 years; age range: 13-85+; sex ratio: 0.74). Screening for anti-HCV antibodies was performed using ELISA and recombinant immunoblot assay. Seropositive samples were assessed further with viral load and genotyping techniques. Sixty-six (20.7%) individuals were HCV seropositive. Viral loads ranged from 600 to 24.9 million IU/ml (median: 372,500). Seroprevalence and viral loads increased significantly with age (P < 10(-5) and P < 0.003, respectively). HCV sequences of the 5'UTR genome region were obtained from 60 (90.9%) samples and NS5B region sequences were obtained from 22 (36.6%) samples. All strains belonged to subtypes of genotype 4: 4e (72.7%), 4c (13.6%), 4p (4.5%), 4r (4.5%) and one unclassified genotype 4 strain. Evolutionary analysis of the subtype 4e sequences indicates a period of raised transmission during the early twentieth century.

Introduction: conceptualizing and partitioning the emergence process of zoonotic viruses from wildlife to humans

This introduction provides a telegraphic overview of the processes of zoonotic viral emergence, the intricacies of host-virus interactions, and the distinct role of biological transitions and modifying factors. The process of emergence is conceptualized as two transition stages which are common and required for all disease emergence, (1) human contact with the infectious agent and (2) cross-species transmission of the agent, and two transition stages which are not required for emergence and appear unavailable to many zoonotic pathogens, (3) sustained human-to-human transmission and (4) genetic adaptation to the human host. The latter two transitions are presumably prerequisites for the pandemic emergence of a pathogen. The themes introduced herein are amplified and explored in detail by the contributors to this volume. Each author explores the mechanisms and unique circumstances by which evolution, biology, history, and current context have contrived to drive the emergence of different zoonotic agents by a series of related events; although recognizable similarities exist among the events leading to emergence the details and circumstances are never repetitive.

Parenteral transmission during excision and treatment of tuberculosis and trypanosomiasis may be responsible for the HIV-2 epidemic in Guinea-Bissau

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The factors that led to the simultaneous emergence, decades ago, of HIV-1 in central Africa and HIV-2 in West Africa remain unclear. The low HIV-2-associated mortality enables epidemiological assessment of risk factors potentially relevant in the early stages of the epidemic. In Guinea-Bissau, its epicentre, HIV-2 became highly prevalent (approximately 15%) in cohorts of individuals born before 1962, but is now disappearing whereas HIV-1 prevalence is increasing. We sought to verify the hypothesis that parenteral transmission was the key factor in the building-up of the HIV-2 epidemic.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional community survey of 1608 individuals aged > or = 50 years in Bissau.

METHODS

Capillary blood was obtained for HIV serology. Associations between HIV-2 (alone or in dual HIV-1/HIV-2 infections) and exposures were measured with crude and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Prevalence of HIV-2 was higher in women (160/1063; 15.1%) than men (45/545; 8.3%, P < 0.001). Among women, excision (AOR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.08-2.18) was independently associated with HIV-2, as were age and being widowed (AOR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.29-2.74). Among men, HIV-2 was not associated with sexually transmitted infections or transactional sex. In an analysis comprising men and women that was adjusted for age, sex, ethnic group and marital status, HIV-2 was associated with having received injections for the treatment of tuberculosis (AOR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.11-4.05) or trypanosomiasis (AOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.03-2.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Parenteral transmission through ritual excision and multiple injections during treatment of tuberculosis and trypanosomiasis contributed to the emergence of HIV-2 in Guinea-Bissau.

Hepatitis C virus infection in cameroon: A cohort-effect

A hepatitis C virus (HCV) serological study conducted in 2003 on 1,434 individuals in Yaounde and other HCV seroepidemiological studies on 2,066 sera sampled between 1993 and 1997 in four geographically distinct rural areas (Ntem, Mekas, Yokadouma, and Nditam) in Cameroon, are described. Two patterns of HCV seroprevalence were observed. The first pattern, represented by Nditam and Yokadouma populations, showed low HCV seroprevalence rates (2.9% and 3.3%, respectively) increasing moderately with age (9.0% and 16.7% after age 50). The second pattern showed high seroprevalence rates (6.9% for Yaounde, 14.4% and 16.7% for Ntem and Mekas, respectively). These rates increased dramatically with age (32.8%-49.5% after age 50). The age-specific anti-HCV prevalence curve of the 1993 Mekas survey paralleled those of the 1997 Ntem and 2003 Yaounde surveys. Using the year of birth as the x-axis, the three curves closely matched each other. This clearly indicates a cohort effect for which the seroprevalence trends are clearly related with the year of birth, rather than the age. The highest prevalence was observed among people born around 1940.

Mucosal and systemic anti-HIV responses in rhesus macaques following combinations of intranasal and parenteral immunizations

There is an urgent need to develop vaccines that can elicit immunological memory responses against HIV. Using the rhesus macaque model and a combination of intranasal (IN) and parenteral immunizations with DNA or protein adsorbed to microparticles or mixed with mucosal adjuvants we sought to induce anti-HIV memory-type immune responses in both the mucosal and systemic compartments. Prime/boost immunizations were performed through five IN immunizations alone with HIV-env oligomeric gp140 (Ogp140) or HIV-gag-p24 mixed with Escherichia coli heat labile-derived mutant adjuvants or two parenteral immunizations with DNA encoding HIV-env or -gag adsorbed to microparticles followed by three IN immunizations with p24 gag protein and the mutant adjuvants. Both modes of immunizations induced anti-gp140 plasma and vaginal IgG and IgA as well as interferon (IFN)-gamma secreting peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) after HIV-env and -gag peptide restimulation. After a resting period of 4 months, when the levels of humoral and cellular responses had decreased, intramuscular (IM) booster immunizations with p55-gag protein adsorbed to microparticles and Ogp140 in MF59 oil in water emulsion significantly enhanced anti-HIV plasma and vaginal antibody, as well as peripheral blood IFN-gamma responses in all groups of vaccinated macaques. Importantly, plasma neutralization activity against both homologous and heterologous HIV strains was observed in all groups following the IM booster immunizations with protein. These findings show that IN priming alone or combinations of parenteral and IN immunizations followed by IM booster immunizations hold promise to significantly enhance mucosal and systemic memory-type immune responses against HIV-1 antigens.