Factors Affecting the Geographic Distribution of West Nile Virus in Georgia, USA: 2002–2004

Temporal and Spatial Synchronicity in West Nile Virus Cases Along the Central Flyway, USA

This study of West Nile virus (WNV) examined the possibility of avian transmission to explain synchronicity in the year-to-year variability of WNV case numbers from Texas northward to the Dakotas, and reasons for the large case numbers on the northern Great Plains. We determined correlation coefficients between annual disease incidence per 100,000 people among states within the Great Plains Region, as well as the Central Flyway. There was spatial and temporal synchronicity, as evidenced by Pearson "r," with values along the core of the Central Flyway (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota) varying between 0.69 and 0.79. Correlations for North Dakota (r = 0.6), however, were affected by local conditions. The concept of relative amplification is helpful in explaining why northerly states along the Central Flyway have larger annual case numbers per 100,000 than Texas but preserve the temporal signal. States differed in their capacity for amplifying the temporal signal in case numbers. For example, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota case numbers were commonly amplified relative to Texas, with Oklahoma and Kansas deamplified. Relative amplification factors for all states increased as a function of increasing case numbers in Texas. Thus, increased numbers of initially infected birds in Texas likely led to the rapid intensification of the zoonotic cycle as compared to more typical years. The study also confirmed the importance of winter weather in locally modulating disease cases. North Dakota appeared most impacted by these factors to the extent of reducing WNV case numbers in colder years and years with deep snow.

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans.

METHODS

We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R2=0.61.

RESULTS

Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables.

DISCUSSION

We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.

Serological evidence of circulation of West Nile virus in equids in Algerian eastern drylands and its epidemiological risk factors

In order to determine the prevalence of equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV), Usutu virus (USUV), and West Nile virus (WNV) in eastern Algerian drylands, 340 sera from distinct equids have been collected from 2015 to 2017. Serological analysis for the presence of antibodies against EIAV and flaviviruses was performed using commercially available ELISAs. Sera detected positive, doubtful, or negative close to the doubtful threshold in flavivirus ELISA were tested by the virus neutralization test (VNT), using WNV and USUV strains. The prevalence of WNV antibodies with ELISA was 11.47% (39/340) against 13.53% (46/340) by WNV VNT. EIAV antibodies were not detected in any samples. WNV seroprevalence varies with species, breed and location of horses. Only, one equid was positive for both WNV and USUV neutralizing antibodies. This is the first screening on equids sera of EIAV and USUV in Algeria. This study indicate that WNV and possibly USUV have circulated/are circulating in the Algerian equine population, unlike EIAV does not seem to be present.

Possible expansion of Ixodes ricinus in the United Kingdom identified through the Tick Surveillance Scheme between 2013 and 2020

The tick Ixodes ricinus (Ixodida: Ixodidae, Linnaeus) is the main vector of several pathogens including Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (agent of Lyme borreliosis) and tick-borne encephalitis virus. Its distribution depends on many factors including suitable habitat, climate and presence of hosts. In this study, we present records of I. ricinus bites on humans, dogs (Canis lupus familiaris; Carnivora: Canidae, L.) and cats (Felis catus; Carnivora: Felidiae, L.) in the United Kingdom (UK) obtained through the Tick Surveillance Scheme between 2013 and 2020. We divided the UK into 20 km x 20 km grids and 9.2% (range 1.2%-30%) of grids had at least one record every year since 2013. Most regions reported a yearly increase in the percentage of grids reporting I. ricinus since 2013 and the highest changes occurred in the South and East England with 5%-6.7% of new grids reporting I. ricinus bites each year in areas that never reported ticks before. Spatiotemporal analyses suggested that, while all regions recorded I. ricinus in new areas every year, there was a yearly decline in the percentage of new areas covered, except for Scotland. We discuss potential drivers of tick expansion, including reforestation and increase in deer populations.

Among-species variation in hormone concentrations is associated with urban tolerance in birds

As cities expand across the globe, understanding factors that underlie variation in urban tolerance is vital for predicting changes in patterns of biodiversity. Endocrine traits, like circulating hormone concentrations and regulation of endocrine responses, might contribute to variation in species' ability to cope with urban challenges. For example, variation in glucocorticoid and androgen concentrations has been linked to life-history and behavioural traits that are associated with urban tolerance. However, we lack an understanding of the degree to which evolved differences in endocrine traits predict variation in urban tolerance across species. We analysed 1391 estimates of circulating baseline corticosterone, stress-induced corticosterone, and testosterone concentrations paired with citizen-science-derived urban occurrence scores in a broad comparative analysis of endocrine phenotypes across 71 bird species that differ in their occurrence in urban habitats. Our results reveal context-dependent links between baseline corticosterone and urban tolerance, as well as testosterone and urban tolerance. Stress-induced corticosterone was not related to urban tolerance. These findings suggest that some endocrine phenotypes contribute to a species' tolerance of urban habitats, but also indicate that other aspects of the endocrine phenotype, such as the ability to appropriately attenuate responses to urban challenges, might be important for success in cities.

West Nile Virus Seroprevalence in Manisa Province: A Population-based Study

Objective

West Nile Virus (WNV), which causes widespread outbreaks in different parts of the world, is a risk to public health in Turkey, too. Community-based study data are needed to identify measures against possible outbreaks. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of community-based WNV in Manisa and to investigate the relationship between sociodemographic and socioeconomic variables.

Methods

We included individuals older than two years of age (N=1,317,917) registered in the Manisa Province Family Medicine Information System. Selected participants (n=1233) were determined by a simple random sampling method. Specific IgG antibodies against WNV were investigated in serum samples using a commercial ELISA test (Euroimmun, Germany). The relationship between age, gender, location, education and income level, occupation, population density, altitude, the location of the toilet in the house, and the presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease variables were analyzed by chi-square, Fisher's exact test and t-test. Adjusted odds ratio (OR) with95% confidence interval (CI) for each variable were calculated by the logistic regression method to explain potential risks.

Results

WNV IgG antibodies were detected in 47 (3.8%) sera samples by ELISA. Seroprevalence was significantly correlated with independent variables of advanced age, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, low level of education and income, living in low altitude areas and the location of the toilet. In multivariate analysis; age (every one-year increase) (OR:1.05; 95% CI:1.02-1.07; p <0.001), equivalent annual income per capita below 3265 TL (OR:3.21; 95% CI: 1.53-6.73; p=0.002), and living areas below 132 meters altitude (OR=3.21; 95% CI 1.26-8.15; p=0.014) were found to be the risk factors for WNV seropositivity.

Conclusion

In Manisa province, WNV IgG seroprevalence was detected as 3.8% with ELISA method. Older age, low income and living in regions with a low altitude were found to be associated with increased seropositivity significantly.

Infection risk varies within urbanized landscapes: the case of coyotes and heartworm

BACKGROUND

Urbanization can have profound effects on ecological interactions. For host-pathogen interactions, differences have been detected between urban and non-urban landscapes. However, host-pathogen interactions may also differ within highly heterogeneous, urbanized landscapes.

METHODS

We investigated differences in infection risk (i.e., probability of infection) within urbanized landscapes using the coyote (Canis latrans) and mosquito-borne nematode, Dirofilaria immitis (the causative agent for canine heartworm), as a case study. We focused on a coyote population in Chicago for which extensive behavioral and heartworm infection data has been collected between 2001 and 2016. Our objectives were to: (i) determine how onset and duration of the heartworm transmission season varied over the 16-year period and across the urban-suburban gradient; and (ii) investigate how heartworm infection risk in coyotes varied over the years, across the urban-suburban gradient, by coyote characteristics (e.g., age, sex, resident status), and coyote use of the urbanized landscape (e.g., use of urban areas, mosquito habitats).

RESULTS

While onset of the heartworm transmission season differed neither by year nor across the urban-suburban gradient, it was longer closer to the core of Chicago. Of the 315 coyotes sampled, 31.1% were infected with D. immitis. Older coyotes and coyotes sampled in later years (i.e., 2012-2016) were more likely to have heartworm. While coyote location in the urban-suburban gradient was not a significant predictor of infection, the proportion of urban land in coyote home ranges was. Importantly, the size and direction of this association varied by age class. For adults and pups, infection risk declined with urbanization, whereas for subadults it increased. Further, models had a higher predictive power when focusing on resident coyotes (and excluding transient coyotes). The proportion of mosquito habitat in coyote home ranges was not a significant predictor of infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that urbanization may affect host exposure to vectors of D. immitis, that risk of infection can vary within urbanized landscapes, and that urbanization-wildlife infection associations may only be detected for animals with certain characteristics (e.g., age class and resident status).

Ecological Effects on the Dynamics of West Nile Virus and Avian Plasmodium: The Importance of Mosquito Communities and Landscape

Humans and wildlife are at risk from certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and West Nile and yellow fevers. Factors linked to global change, including habitat alteration, land-use intensification, the spread of alien species, and climate change, are operating on a global scale and affect both the incidence and distribution of many vector-borne diseases. Hence, understanding the drivers that regulate the transmission of pathogens in the wild is of great importance for ecological, evolutionary, health, and economic reasons. In this literature review, we discuss the ecological factors potentially affecting the transmission of two mosquito-borne pathogens circulating naturally between birds and mosquitoes, namely, West Nile virus (WNV) and the avian malaria parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Traditionally, the study of pathogen transmission has focused only on vectors or hosts and the interactions between them, while the role of landscape has largely been ignored. However, from an ecological point of view, it is essential not only to study the interaction between each of these organisms but also to understand the environmental scenarios in which these processes take place. We describe here some of the similarities and differences in the transmission of these two pathogens and how research into both systems may facilitate a greater understanding of the dynamics of vector-borne pathogens in the wild.

Light pollution affects West Nile virus exposure risk across Florida

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) present global health threats, and their emergences are often linked to anthropogenic change. Artificial light at night (ALAN) is one form of anthropogenic change that spans beyond urban boundaries and may be relevant to EIDs through its influence on the behaviour and physiology of hosts and/or vectors. Although West Nile virus (WNV) emergence has been described as peri-urban, we hypothesized that exposure risk could also be influenced by ALAN in particular, which is testable by comparing the effects of ALAN on prevalence while controlling for other aspects of urbanization. By modelling WNV exposure among sentinel chickens in Florida, we found strong support for a nonlinear relationship between ALAN and WNV exposure risk in chickens with peak WNV risk occurring at low ALAN levels. Although our goal was not to discern how ALAN affected WNV relative to other factors, effects of ALAN on WNV exposure were stronger than other known drivers of risk (i.e. impervious surface, human population density). Ambient temperature in the month prior to sampling, but no other considered variables, strongly influenced WNV risk. These results indicate that ALAN may contribute to spatio-temporal changes in WNV risk, justifying future investigations of ALAN on other vector-borne parasites.

Effects of Scale on Modeling West Nile Virus Disease Risk

Modeling vector-borne diseases is best conducted when heterogeneity among interacting biotic and abiotic processes is captured. However, the successful integration of these complex processes is difficult, hindered by a lack of understanding of how these relationships influence disease transmission across varying scales. West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Vectored by Culex mosquitoes and maintained in the environment by avian hosts, the virus can spill over into humans and horses, sometimes causing severe neuroinvasive illness. Several modeling studies have evaluated drivers of WNV disease risk, but nearly all have done so at broad scales and have reported mixed results of the effects of common explanatory variables. As a result, fine-scale relationships with common explanatory variables, particularly climatic, socioeconomic, and human demographic, remain uncertain across varying spatial extents. Using an interdisciplinary approach and an ongoing 12-year study of the Chicago region, this study evaluated the factors explaining WNV disease risk at high spatiotemporal resolution, comparing the human WNV model and covariate performance across three increasing spatial extents: ultrafine, local, and county scales. Our results demonstrate that as spatial extent increased, model performance increased. In addition, only six of the 23 assessed covariates were included in best-fit models of at least two scales. These results suggest that the mechanisms driving WNV ecology are scale-dependent and covariate importance increases as extent decreases. These tools may be particularly helpful for public health, mosquito, and disease control personnel in predicting and preventing disease within local and fine-scale jurisdictions, before spillover occurs.

Red fox viromes in urban and rural landscapes

The Red fox (Vulpes vulpes) has established large populations in Australia’s urban and rural areas since its introduction following European settlement. The cryptic and highly adaptable nature of foxes allows them to invade cities and live among humans whilst remaining largely unnoticed. Urban living and access to anthropogenic food resources also influence fox ecology. Urban foxes grow larger, live at higher densities, and are more social than their rural counterparts. These ecological changes in urban red foxes are likely to impact the pathogens that they harbour, and foxes could pose a disease risk to humans and other species that share these urban spaces. To investigate this possibility, we used a meta-transcriptomic approach to characterise the virome of urban and rural foxes across the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Urban and rural foxes differed significantly in virome composition, with rural foxes harbouring a greater abundance of viruses compared to their urban counterparts. We identified ten potentially novel vertebrate-associated viruses in both urban and rural foxes, some of which are related to viruses associated with disease in domestic species and humans. These included members of the Astroviridae, Picobirnaviridae, Hepeviridae, and Picornaviridae as well as rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus-2. This study sheds light on the viruses carried by urban and rural foxes and emphasises the need for greater genomic surveillance of foxes and other invasive species at the human–wildlife interface.

Landscape and demographic determinants of Culex infection with West Nile virus during the 2012 epidemic in Dallas County, TX

In 2012, the United States experienced one of the largest outbreaks of West Nile virus (WNV)-associated deaths, with the majority occurring in Dallas County (Co.), Texas (TX) and surrounding areas. In this study, logistic mixed models were used to identify associations between the landscape, human population, and WNV-infected Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes during the 2012 WNV epidemic in Dallas Co. We found increased probabilities for WNV-positive mosquitoes in north and central Dallas Co. The most significant predictors of the presence of WNV in Cx. quinquefasciatus pools were increased urbanization (based on an index composed of greater population density, lower normalized difference vegetation index, higher coverage of urban land types, and more impervious surfaces), older human populations, and lower elevation. These relationships between the landscape, sociodemographics, and risk of enzootic transmission identified regions of Dallas Co., TX with highest risk of spillover to human disease during the 2012 WNV epidemic.

Comparative Pathology of West Nile Virus in Humans and Non-Human Animals

West Nile virus (WNV) continues to be a major cause of human arboviral neuroinvasive disease. Susceptible non-human vertebrates are particularly diverse, ranging from commonly affected birds and horses to less commonly affected species such as alligators. This review summarizes the pathology caused by West Nile virus during natural infections of humans and non-human animals. While the most well-known findings in human infection involve the central nervous system, WNV can also cause significant lesions in the heart, kidneys and eyes. Time has also revealed chronic neurologic sequelae related to prior human WNV infection. Similarly, neurologic disease is a prominent manifestation of WNV infection in most non-human non-host animals. However, in some avian species, which serve as the vertebrate host for WNV maintenance in nature, severe systemic disease can occur, with neurologic, cardiac, intestinal and renal injury leading to death. The pathology seen in experimental animal models of West Nile virus infection and knowledge gains on viral pathogenesis derived from these animal models are also briefly discussed. A gap in the current literature exists regarding the relationship between the neurotropic nature of WNV in vertebrates, virus propagation and transmission in nature. This and other knowledge gaps, and future directions for research into WNV pathology, are addressed.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks

Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

Twenty years of West Nile virus spread and evolution in the Americas visualized by Nextstrain

It has been 20 years since West Nile virus first emerged in the Americas, and since then, little progress has been made to control outbreaks caused by this virus. After its first detection in New York in 1999, West Nile virus quickly spread across the continent, causing an epidemic of human disease and massive bird die-offs. Now the virus has become endemic to the United States, where an estimated 7 million human infections have occurred, making it the leading mosquito-borne virus infection and the most common cause of viral encephalitis in the country. To bring new attention to one of the most important mosquito-borne viruses in the Americas, we provide an interactive review using Nextstrain: a visualization tool for real-time tracking of pathogen evolution (nextstrain.org/WNV/NA). Nextstrain utilizes a growing database of more than 2,000 West Nile virus genomes and harnesses the power of phylogenetics for students, educators, public health workers, and researchers to visualize key aspects of virus spread and evolution. Using Nextstrain, we use virus genomics to investigate the emergence of West Nile virus in the U S, followed by its rapid spread, evolution in a new environment, establishment of endemic transmission, and subsequent international spread. For each figure, we include a link to Nextstrain to allow the readers to directly interact with and explore the underlying data in new ways. We also provide a brief online narrative that parallels this review to further explain the data and highlight key epidemiological and evolutionary features (nextstrain.org/narratives/twenty-years-of-WNV). Mirroring the dynamic nature of outbreaks, the Nextstrain links provided within this paper are constantly updated as new West Nile virus genomes are shared publicly, helping to stay current with the research. Overall, our review showcases how genomics can track West Nile virus spread and evolution, as well as potentially uncover novel targeted control measures to help alleviate its public health burden.

Serosurvey of West Nile virus in household-reared pigeons in Bauchi metropolis, Nigeria

Background

In Nigeria not much is known about West Nile virus (WNV) in pigeons. This study determined the involvement of household-reared pigeons in the circulation of WNV in Nigeria.

Methods

It was a cross-sectional study. Serological detection was done using competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and a pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on risk factors related to WNV in households.

Results

From the156 households enumerated, 376 pigeon serum samples were collected and tested for antibodies. A total of 3.5% (13/376) of the pigeon sera were positive. Risk factors for WNV in households indicated that not having a blocked or stagnant gutter that is not flowing, and having mosquito nets at the windows and doors were found to be protective (OR=0.69, 95% CI, 0.21-2.29; OR=0.46, 95% CI, 0.14-1.56).

Conclusions

Household-reared pigeons contribute to the epidemiology of WNV. There is need for further studies in other species of birds, and education of the populace about its zoonotic transmission.

Environmental and Sociological Factors Associated with the Incidence of West Nile Virus Cases in the Northern San Joaquin Valley of California, 2011-2015

Environmental and socioeconomic risk factors associated with the incidence of human West Nile virus (WNV) cases were investigated in the Northern San Joaquin Valley region of California, a largely rural area. The study included human WNV cases from the years 2011 to 2015 in the three-county area of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced Counties, and used census tracts as the unit of analysis. Environmental factors included temperature, precipitation, and WNV-positive mosquito pools. Socioeconomic variables included age, housing age, housing foreclosures, median income, and ethnicity. Chi-square independence tests were used to examine whether each variable was associated with the incidence of WNV cases using data from the three counties combined. In addition, negative binomial regression revealed that the environmental factors of temperature and precipitation were the strongest predictors of the incidence of human WNV cases, while the socioeconomic factor of ethnicity was a significant predictor as well, and is a factor to consider in prevention efforts. Source reduction of mosquito breeding sites and targeted prevention and education remain key in reducing the risk associated with WNV.

Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans

One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.

Dim light at night: physiological effects and ecological consequences for infectious disease

Light pollution has emerged as a pervasive component of land development over the past century. Several detrimental impacts of this anthropogenic influence have been identified in night shift workers, laboratory rodents, and a plethora of wildlife species. Circadian, or daily, patterns are interrupted by the presence of light at night and have the capacity to alter rhythmic physiological or behavioral characteristics. Indeed, biorhythm disruption can lead to metabolic, reproductive, and immunological dysfunction depending on the intensity, timing, duration, and wavelength of light exposure. Light pollution, in many forms and by many pathways, is thus apt to affect the nature of host-pathogen interactions. However, no research has yet investigated this possibility. The goal of this manuscript is to outline how dim light at night, a relevant and common form of light pollution, may affect disease dynamics by interrupting circadian rhythms and regulation of immune responses as well as opportunities for host-parasite interactions and subsequent transmission risk including spillover into humans. We close by proposing some promising interventions including alternative lighting methods or vector control efforts.

Improving the prediction of arbovirus outbreaks: A comparison of climate-driven models for West Nile virus in an endemic region of the United States

Models that forecast the timing and location of human arboviral disease have the potential to make mosquito control and disease prevention more effective. A common approach is to use statistical time-series models that predict disease cases as lagged functions of environmental variables. However, the simplifying assumptions required for standard modeling approaches may not capture important aspects of complex, non-linear transmission cycles. Here, we compared a set of alternative models of human West Nile virus (WNV) in 2004-2017 in South Dakota, USA. We used county-level logistic regressions to model historical human case data as functions of distributed lag summaries of air temperature and several moisture indices. We tested two variations of the standard model in which 1) the distributed lag functions were allowed to change over the transmission season, so that dependence on past meteorological conditions was time varying rather than static, and 2) an additional predictor was included that quantified the mosquito infection growth rate estimated from mosquito surveillance data. The best-fitting model included temperature and vapor pressure deficit as meteorological predictors, and also incorporated time-varying lags and the mosquito infection growth rate. The time-varying lags helped to predict the seasonal pattern of WNV cases, whereas the mosquito infection growth rate improved the prediction of year-to-year variability in WNV risk. These relatively simple and practical enhancements may be particularly helpful for developing data-driven time series models for use in arbovirus forecasting applications.

An Integrative Eco-Epidemiological Analysis of West Nile Virus Transmission

West Nile disease, caused by the West Nile virus (WNV), is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease affecting humans and horses that involves wild birds as amplifying hosts. The mechanisms of WNV transmission remain unclear in Europe where the occurrence of outbreaks has dramatically increased in recent years. We used a dataset on the competence, distribution, abundance, diversity and dispersal of wild bird hosts and mosquito vectors to test alternative hypotheses concerning the transmission of WNV in Southern France. We modelled the successive processes of introduction, amplification, dispersal and spillover of WNV to incidental hosts based on host-vector contact rates on various land cover types and over four seasons. We evaluated the relative importance of the mechanisms tested using two independent serological datasets of WNV antibodies collected in wild birds and horses. We found that the same transmission processes (seasonal virus introduction by migratory birds, Culex modestus mosquitoes as amplifying vectors, heterogeneity in avian host competence, absence of 'dilution effect') best explain the spatial variations in WNV seroprevalence in the two serological datasets. Our results provide new insights on the pathways of WNV introduction, amplification and spillover and the contribution of bird and mosquito species to WNV transmission in Southern France.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, within their flight range. Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus. The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios (R² = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May-August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed.

West Nile virus and its vectors

West Nile virus (WNV Flaviviridae; Flavivrus) is the most geographically widespread arbovirus in the world and the leading cause of arboviral encephalitis globally. Worldwide, WNV is maintained in an enzootic cycle between primarily Culex spp. mosquitoes and birds, with human infection and disease resulting from enzootic spillover. Dynamic and complex intrinsic and extrinsic factors contribute to the temporal and spatial variability in WNV transmission. The most current information on the relative contribution of each of these factors is reviewed and a case to incorporate detailed and localized environmental and genetic data into predictive models is presented.

Seasonal Fluctuations of Astrovirus, But Not Coronavirus Shedding in Bats Inhabiting Human-Modified Tropical Forests

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are considered a major threat to global health. Most EIDs appear to result from increased contact between wildlife and humans, especially when humans encroach into formerly pristine habitats. Habitat deterioration may also negatively affect the physiology and health of wildlife species, which may eventually lead to a higher susceptibility to infectious agents and/or increased shedding of the pathogens causing EIDs. Bats are known to host viruses closely related to important EIDs. Here, we tested in a paleotropical forest with ongoing logging and fragmentation, whether habitat disturbance influences the occurrence of astro- and coronaviruses in eight bat species. In contrast to our hypothesis, anthropogenic habitat disturbance was not associated with corona- and astrovirus detection rates in fecal samples. However, we found that bats infected with either astro- or coronaviruses were likely to be coinfected with the respective other virus. Additionally, we identified two more risk factors influencing astrovirus shedding. First, the detection rate of astroviruses was higher at the beginning of the rainy compared to the dry season. Second, there was a trend that individuals with a poor body condition had a higher probability of shedding astroviruses in their feces. The identification of risk factors for increased viral shedding that may potentially result in increased interspecies transmission is important to prevent viral spillovers from bats to other animals, including humans.

Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak

INTRODUCTION

Predicting the timing and locations of future mosquito-borne disease outbreaks has the potential to improve the targeting of mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. Here, we present and evaluate prospective forecasts made prior to and during the 2016 West Nile virus (WNV) season in South Dakota, a hotspot for human WNV transmission in the United States.

METHODS

We used a county-level logistic regression model to predict the weekly probability of human WNV case occurrence as a function of temperature, precipitation, and an index of mosquito infection status. The model was specified and fitted using historical data from 2004-2015 and was applied in 2016 to make short-term forecasts of human WNV cases in the upcoming week as well as whole-year forecasts of WNV cases throughout the entire transmission season. These predictions were evaluated at the end of the 2016 WNV season by comparing them with spatial and temporal patterns of the human cases that occurred.

RESULTS

There was an outbreak of WNV in 2016, with a total of 167 human cases compared to only 40 in 2015. Model results were generally accurate, with an AUC of 0.856 for short-term predictions. Early-season temperature data were sufficient to predict an earlier-than-normal start to the WNV season and an above-average number of cases, but underestimated the overall case burden. Model predictions improved throughout the season as more mosquito infection data were obtained, and by the end of July the model provided a close estimate of the overall magnitude of the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

An integrated model that included meteorological variables as well as a mosquito infection index as predictor variables accurately predicted the resurgence of WNV in South Dakota in 2016. Key areas for future research include refining the model to improve predictive skill and developing strategies to link forecasts with specific mosquito control and disease prevention activities.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households.

Predicting West Nile Virus Infection Risk From the Synergistic Effects of Rainfall and Temperature

Mosquito-based surveillance is a practical way to estimate the risk of transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to people. Variations in temperature and precipitation play a role in driving mosquito infection rates and transmission of WNV, motivating efforts to predict infection rates based on prior weather conditions. Weather conditions and sequential patterns of meteorological events can have particularly important, but regionally distinctive, consequences for WNV transmission, with high temperatures and low precipitation often increasing WNV mosquito infection. Predictive models that incorporate weather can thus be used to provide early indications of the risk of WNV infection. The purpose of this study was first, to assess the ability of a previously published model of WNV mosquito infection to predict infection for an area within the region for which it was developed, and second, to improve the predictive ability of this model by incorporating new weather factors that may affect mosquito development. The legacy model captured the primary trends in mosquito infection, but it was improved considerably when calibrated with local mosquito infection rates. The use of interaction terms between precipitation and temperature improved model performance. Specifically, temperature had a stronger influence than rainfall, so that lower than average temperature greatly reduced the effect of low rainfall on increased infection rates. When rainfall was lower, high temperature had an even stronger positive impact on infection rates. The final model is practical, stable, and operationally valid for predicting West Nile virus infection rates in future weeks when calibrated with local data.

Ecological niche modeling of mosquito vectors of West Nile virus in St. John's County, Florida, USA

Background

The lack of available vaccines and consistent sporadic transmission of WNV justify the need for mosquito vector control and prediction of their geographic distribution. However, the distribution of WNV transmission is dependent on the mosquito vector and the ecological requirements, which vary from one place to another.

Methods

Presence/density data of two WNV mosquito vectors, Culex nigripalpus and Cx. quinquefasciatus, was extracted within 5 km buffer zones around seropositive records of sentinel chickens in order to delineate their predicting variables and model the habitat suitability of probable infective mosquito using MaxEnt software. Different correlations between density data of the extracted mosquito vectors and 27 climate, land use-land cover, and land surface terrain variables were analyzed using linear regression analysis. Accordingly, the correlated predicting variables were used in building up habitat suitability model for the occurrence records of both mosquito vectors using MaxEnt.

Results

The density of both WNV mosquito vectors showed variation in their ecological requirements. Eight predicting variables, out of 27, had significant influence on density of Cx. nigripalpus. Precipitation of driest months was shown to be the best predicting variable for the density of this vector (R² = 41.70). Whereas, two variables were proven to predict the distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus density. Vegetation showed the maximum predicting gain to the density of this mosquito vector (R² = 15.74), where nestling birds, in particular exotics, are found. Moreover, Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt demonstrated that urbanization and vegetation data layers significantly contribute in predicting habitat suitability of Cx. nigripalpus and Cx. quinquefasciatus occurrence, respectively, which justifies the contribution of the former in urban and the latter in epizootic transmission cycles of WNV. In addition, habitat suitability risk maps were produced for both vectors in response to their predicting variables.

Conclusions

For the first time in the study area, a quantitative relationship between 27 predicting variables and two WNV mosquito vectors within their foraging habitats was highlighted at the local scale. Accordingly, the predicting variables were used to produce a practical distribution map of probable infective mosquito vectors. This substantially helps in determining where suitable habitats are found. This will potentially help in designing target surveillance and control programmes, saving money, time and man-power. However, the suitability risk maps should be updated when serological and entomological data updates are available.

Persistent impacts of West Nile virus on North American bird populations

Since its introduction to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has had devastating impacts on native host populations, but to date these impacts have been difficult to measure. Using a continental-scale dataset comprised of a quarter-million birds captured over nearly two decades and a recently developed model of WNV risk, we estimated the impact of this emergent disease on the survival of avian populations. We find that populations were negatively affected by WNV in 23 of the 49 species studied (47%). We distinguished two groups of species: those for which WNV negatively impacted survival only during initial spread of the disease (n = 11), and those that show no signs of recovery since disease introduction (n = 12). Results provide a novel example of the taxonomic breadth and persistent impacts of this wildlife disease on a continental scale. Phylogenetic analyses further identify groups (New World sparrows, finches, and vireos) disproportionally affected by temporary or persistent WNV effects, suggesting an evolutionary dimension of disease risk. Identifying the factors affecting the persistence of a disease across host species is critical to mitigating its effects, particularly in a world marked by rapid anthropogenic change.

Seroprevalence of West Nile Virus specific IgG and IgM antibodies in North-Western and Western provinces of Zambia

BACKGROUND

West Nile Virus (WNV) infection has been reported worldwide, including in Africa but its existence in Zambia is unknown. Symptoms for the virus include headache, myalgia, arthralgia and rash.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of WNV and its correlates.

METHODS

A cross sectional study was conducted in North-Western and Western provinces of Zambia. Samples were subjected to IgG and IgM antibodies testing against WNV. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine magnitudes of association.

RESULTS

A total of 3,625 of persons participated in the survey out of which 10.3% had WNV infection. Farmers were 20% (AOR=0.80; 95% CI [0.64, 0.99]) less likely to have infection compared to students. Meanwhile participants who lived in grass roofed houses were 2.97 (AOR=2.97; 95% CI [1.81, 4.88]) times more likely to be infected than those who lived in asbestos roofed houses. IRS was associated with reduced risk of infection (AOR=0.81; 95% CI [0.69, 0.94]). Travelling to Angola was associated with the infection [AOR=1.40; 95% CI [1.09, 1.81].

CONCLUSION

Spraying houses with insecticide residual spray would minimize mosquito-man contact. Furthermore, surveillance at the border with Angola should be enhanced in order to reduce importation of the virus into the country.

Factors That Influence the Transmission of West Nile Virus in Florida

West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in North America in New York City during the late summer of 1999 and was first detected in Florida in 2001. Although WNV has been responsible for widespread and extensive epidemics in human populations and epizootics in domestic animals and wildlife throughout North America, comparable epidemics have never materialized in Florida. Here, we review some of the reasons why WNV has yet to cause an extensive outbreak in Florida. The primary vector of mosquito-borne encephalitis virus in Florida is Culex nigripalpus Theobald. Rainfall, drought, and temperature are the primary factors that regulate annual populations of this species. Cx. nigripalpus is a competent vector of WNV, St. Louis encephalitis virus, and eastern equine encephalitis virus in Florida, and populations of this species can support focal amplification and transmission of these arboviruses. We propose that a combination of environmental factors influencing Cx. nigripalpus oviposition, blood-feeding behavior, and vector competence have limited WNV transmission in Florida to relatively small focal outbreaks and kept the state free of a major epidemic. Florida must remain vigilant to the danger from WNV, because a change in these environmental factors could easily result in a substantial WNV epidemic rivaling those seen elsewhere in the United States.

Does host receptivity or host exposure drives dynamics of infectious diseases? The case of West Nile Virus in wild birds

Infection is a complex biological process involving reciprocally both the intensity of host exposure to a pathogen as well as the host intrinsic "receptivity", or permissiveness to infection. Disentangling their respective contributions is currently seen as a fundamental gap in our knowledge. Here, we take the advantage of a rare semi-natural experiment context provided by the emergence of the West Nile Virus (WNV) in North America. Focusing on the pathogen emergence period, we combine datasets from (i) wild birds exposed to WNV in an urban zoo to evaluate the species intrinsic receptivity to WNV infection in an environment where exposure to WNV vectors can be assumed to be relatively homogenous for all captive species, and (ii) from free-ranging birds in their natural habitat where species ecological traits is expected to influence their exposure to WNV vectors. We show that ecological trait and intrinsic receptivity to infection both contribute similarly to the species variation in WNV seroprevalence, but considering only one of them can lead to erroneous conclusions. We then argue that degree of pathogen host specialization could be a fundamental factor for the respective contribution of species exposure and receptivity for numerous pathogens.

Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change.

Identifying the environmental conditions favouring West Nile Virus outbreaks in Europe

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a globally important mosquito borne virus, with significant implications for human and animal health. The emergence and spread of new lineages, and increased pathogenicity, is the cause of escalating public health concern. Pinpointing the environmental conditions that favour WNV circulation and transmission to humans is challenging, due both to the complexity of its biological cycle, and the under-diagnosis and reporting of epidemiological data. Here, we used remote sensing and GIS to enable collation of multiple types of environmental data over a continental spatial scale, in order to model annual West Nile Fever (WNF) incidence across Europe and neighbouring countries. Multi-model selection and inference were used to gain a consensus from multiple linear mixed models. Climate and landscape were key predictors of WNF outbreaks (specifically, high precipitation in late winter/early spring, high summer temperatures, summer drought, occurrence of irrigated croplands and highly fragmented forests). Identification of the environmental conditions associated with WNF outbreaks is key to enabling public health bodies to properly focus surveillance and mitigation of West Nile virus impact, but more work needs to be done to enable accurate predictions of WNF risk.

Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe

Background

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of global public health importance. Transmission of WNV is determined by abiotic and biotic factors. The objective of this study was to examine environmental variables as predictors of WNV risk in Europe and neighboring countries, considering the anomalies of remotely sensed water and vegetation indices and of temperature at the locations of West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks reported in humans between 2002 and 2013.

Methods

The status of infection by WNV in relationship to environmental and climatic risk factors was analyzed at the district level using logistic regression models. Temperature, remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) anomalies, as well as population, birds’ migratory routes, and presence of wetlands were considered as explanatory variables.

Results

The anomalies of temperature in July, of MNDWI in early June, the presence of wetlands, the location under migratory routes, and the occurrence of a WNF outbreak the previous year were identified as risk factors. The best statistical model according to the Akaike Information Criterion was used to map WNF risk areas in 2012 and 2013. Model validations showed a good level of prediction: area under Receiver Operator Characteristic curve = 0.854 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.856) for internal validation and 0.819 (95% Confidence Interval 0.814-0.823) (2012) and 0.853 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.855) (2013) for external validations, respectively.

Conclusions

WNF incidence is increasing in Europe and WNV is expanding into new areas where it had never been observed before. Our model can be used to direct surveillance activities and public health interventions for the upcoming WNF season.

Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence

We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.

Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile virus in Greece

West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723-1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841-6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence.

Investigations on California serogroup orthobunyaviruses in the Tyrols: first description of Tahyna virus in the Alps

Seroprevalence rates for immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to Tahyna virus (TAHV) and Inkoo virus (INKV) were determined in sera of 1630 blood donors from North, East, and South Tyrol by immunofluorescence assays (IFAs) and confirmatory serum neutralization tests (SNTs). Ten sera (0.6%) reacted positive by TAHV IFA, five of which (0.3%) were confirmed by SNT. Eleven sera (0.7%) reacted positive in the INKV IFA; only one thereof (0.06%) was verified by subsequent SNT. To identify the source of infections, mosquitoes were trapped at 18 sampling sites in the study area, resulting in the collection of 2571 adult mosquitoes: 1254 individuals of the genus Aedes (48.8% of total) including A. albopictus, 640 Culex (24.9%), 303 Coquillettidia (11.8%), 252 Ochlerotatus (9.8%), 49 Anopheles (1.9%), and 73 mosquitoes of the genus Culiseta (2.8%). The mosquitoes were pooled according to species, trapping site, and time, and were tested by RT-PCR for the presence of California serogroup orthobunyavirus nucleic acids. PCR amplification products were obtained in five of 195 pools (2.6%), and all were identified as TAHVs by subsequent sequencing. This represents the first evidence of TAHV circulation and human exposure in the Tyrols and in the alpine region in general. Interestingly, all TAHV sequences were identified in Culex pipiens/torrentium mosquitoes. Whether other California serogroup orthobunyaviruses such as INKV are also circulating in this area is subject of further investigations on larger numbers of mosquitoes.

Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence

We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.

Limited spillover to humans from West Nile Virus viremic birds in Atlanta, Georgia

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that impacts the health of its passerine bird hosts as well as incidentally infected humans in the United States. Intensive enzootic activity among the hosts and vectors does not always lead to human outbreaks, as is the situation throughout much of the southeastern United States. In Georgia, substantial yearly evidence of WNV in the mosquito vectors and avian hosts since 2001 has only led to 324 human cases. Although virus has been consistently isolated from mosquitoes trapped in Atlanta, GA, little is known about viral activity among the passerine hosts. A possible reason for the suppression of WNV spillover to humans is that viremic birds are absent from high human-use areas of the city. To test this hypothesis, multiseason, multihabitat, longitudinal WNV surveillance for active WNV viremia was conducted within the avian host community of urban Atlanta by collection of blood samples from wild passerine birds in five urban microhabitats. WNV was isolated from the serum of six blood samples collected from 630 (0.95%) wild passerine birds in Atlanta during 2010-2012, a proportion similar to that found in the Chicago, IL, area in 2005, when over 200 human cases were reported. Most of the viremic birds were Northern Cardinals, suggesting they may be of particular importance to the WNV transmission cycle in Georgia. Results indicated active WNV transmission in all microhabitats of urban Atlanta, except in the old-growth forest patches. The number of viremic birds was highest in Zoo Atlanta, where 3.5% of samples were viremic. Although not significant, these observations may suggest a possible transmission reduction effect of urban old-growth forests and a potential role in WNV amplification for Zoo Atlanta. Overall, spillover to humans remains a rare occurrence in urban Atlanta settings despite active WNV transmission in the avian population.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of human West Nile virus disease in South Dakota

Despite a cold temperate climate and low human population density, the Northern Great Plains has become a persistent hot spot for human West Nile virus (WNV) disease in North America. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of WNV can provide insights into the epidemiological and ecological factors that influence disease emergence and persistence. We analyzed the 1,962 cases of human WNV disease that occurred in South Dakota from 2002-2012 to identify the geographic distribution, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability of disease risk. The geographic and seasonal patterns of WNV have changed since the invasion and initial epidemic in 2002-2003, with cases shifting toward the eastern portion of South Dakota and occurring earlier in the transmission season in more recent years. WNV cases were temporally autocorrelated at lags of up to six weeks and early season cumulative case numbers were correlated with seasonal totals, indicating the possibility of using these data for short-term early detection of outbreaks. Epidemiological data are likely to be most effective for early warning of WNV virus outbreaks if they are integrated with entomological surveillance and environmental monitoring to leverage the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of each information source.

Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of reservoir hosts, vectors, and human hosts of West Nile virus: a review of the recent literature

Over the last two decades West Nile Virus (WNV) has been responsible for significant disease outbreaks in humans and animals in many parts of the World. Its extremely rapid global diffusion argues for a better understanding of its geographic extent. The purpose of this inquiry was to explore spatio-temporal patterns of WNV using geospatial technologies to study populations of the reservoir hosts, vectors, and human hosts, in addition to the spatio-temporal interactions among these populations. Review of the recent literature on spatial WNV disease risk modeling led to the conclusion that numerous environmental factors might be critical for its dissemination. New Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based studies are monitoring occurrence at the macro-level, and helping pinpoint areas of occurrence at the micro-level, where geographically-targeted, species-specific control measures are sometimes taken and more sophisticated methods of surveillance have been used.

Environmental drivers of West Nile fever epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia--a review

Abiotic and biotic conditions are both important determinants of West Nile Fever (WNF) epidemiology. Ambient temperature plays an important role in the growth rates of vector populations, the interval between blood meals, viral replication rates and transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV). The contribution of precipitation is more complex and less well understood. In this paper we discuss impacts of climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and other environmental drivers (such as bird migration, land use) on WNV transmission in Europe. WNV recently became established in southeastern Europe, with a large outbreak in the summer of 2010 and recurrent outbreaks in 2011 and 2012. Abundant competent mosquito vectors, bridge vectors, infected (viremic) migrating and local (amplifying) birds are all important characteristics of WNV transmission. In addition, certain key climatic factors, such as increased ambient temperatures, and by extension climate change, may also favor WNF transmission, and they should be taken into account when evaluating the risk of disease spread in the coming years. Monitoring epidemic precursors of WNF, such as significant temperature deviations in high risk areas, could be used to trigger vector control programs and public education campaigns.

Higher mosquito production in low-income neighborhoods of Baltimore and Washington, DC: understanding ecological drivers and mosquito-borne disease risk in temperate cities

Mosquito-vectored pathogens are responsible for devastating human diseases and are (re)emerging in many urban environments. Effective mosquito control in urban landscapes relies on improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecological and social factors that define where mosquito populations can grow. We compared the density of mosquito habitat and pupae production across economically varying neighborhoods in two temperate U.S. cities (Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC). Seven species of mosquito larvae were recorded. The invasive Aedes albopictus was the only species found in all neighborhoods. Culex pipiens, a primary vector of West Nile virus (WNV), was most abundant in Baltimore, which also had more tire habitats. Both Culex and Aedes pupae were more likely to be sampled in neighborhoods categorized as being below median income level in each city and Aedes pupae density was also greater in container habitats found in these lower income neighborhoods. We infer that lower income residents may experience greater exposure to potential disease vectors and Baltimore residents specifically, were at greater risk of exposure to the predominant WNV vector. However, we also found that resident-reported mosquito nuisance was not correlated with our measured risk index, indicating a potentially important mismatch between motivation needed to engage participation in control efforts and the relative importance of control among neighborhoods.

Landscape determinants of Saint Louis encephalitis human infections in Córdoba city, Argentina during 2010

Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) is endemic in Argentina. During 2005 an outbreak occurred in Córdoba. From January to April of 2010 a new outbreak occurred in Córdoba city with a lower magnitude than the one reported in 2005. Understanding the association of different landscape elements related to SLEV hosts and vectors in urban environments is important for identifying high risk areas for human infections, which was here evaluated. The current study uses a case-control approach at a household geographical location, considering symptomatic and asymptomatic human infections produced by SLEV during 2010 in Córdoba city. Geographical information systems and logistic regression analysis were used to study the distribution of infected human cases and their proximity to water bodies, vegetation abundance, agricultural fields and housing density classified as high/low density urban constructions. Population density at a neighborhood level was also analyzed as a demographic variable. Logistic regression analysis revealed vegetation abundance was significantly (p<0.01) associated with the presence of human infections by SLEV. A map of probability of human infections in Córdoba city was derived from the logistic model. The model highlights areas that are more likely to experience SLEV infections. Landscape variables contributing to the outbreak were the proximity to places with vegetation abundance (parks, squares, riversides) and the presence of low density urban constructions, like residential areas. The population density analysis shows that SLEV infections are more likely to occur when population density by neighborhood is lower. These findings and the predictive map developed could be useful for public health surveillance and to improve prevention of vector-borne diseases.

Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile fever upsurge

Background

In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation.

Methods

Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks.

Results

For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern (“colder”) countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern (“warmer”) countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks.

Conclusions

Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.

Wildlife disease prevalence in human-modified landscapes

Human-induced landscape change associated with habitat loss and fragmentation places wildlife populations at risk. One issue in these landscapes is a change in the prevalence of disease which may result in increased mortality and reduced fecundity. Our understanding of the influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of wildlife diseases is still in its infancy. What is evident is that changes in disease prevalence as a result of human-induced landscape modification are highly variable. The importance of infectious diseases for the conservation of wildlife will increase as the amount and quality of suitable habitat decreases due to human land-use pressures. We review the experimental and observational literature of the influence of human-induced landscape change on wildlife disease prevalence, and discuss disease transmission types and host responses as mechanisms that are likely to determine the extent of change in disease prevalence. It is likely that transmission dynamics will be the key process in determining a pathogen's impact on a host population, while the host response may ultimately determine the extent of disease prevalence. Finally, we conceptualize mechanisms and identify future research directions to increase our understanding of the relationship between human-modified landscapes and wildlife disease prevalence. This review highlights that there are rarely consistent relationships between wildlife diseases and human-modified landscapes. In addition, variation is evident between transmission types and landscape types, with the greatest positive influence on disease prevalence being in urban landscapes and directly transmitted disease systems. While we have a limited understanding of the potential influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, there are a number of important areas to address in future research, particularly to account for the variability in increased and decreased disease prevalence. Previous studies have been based on a one-dimensional comparison between unmodified and modified sites. What is lacking are spatially and temporally explicit quantitative approaches which are required to enable an understanding of the range of key causal mechanisms and the reasons for variability. This is particularly important for replicated studies across different host-pathogen systems. Furthermore, there are few studies that have attempted to separate the independent effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, which are the major determinants of wildlife population dynamics in human-modified landscapes. There is an urgent need to understand better the potential causal links between the processes of human-induced landscape change and the associated influences of habitat fragmentation, matrix hostility and loss of connectivity on an animal's physiological stress, immune response and disease susceptibility. This review identified no study that had assessed the influence of human-induced landscape change on the prevalence of a wildlife sexually transmitted disease. A better understanding of the various mechanisms linking human-induced landscape change and the prevalence of wildlife disease will lead to more successful conservation management outcomes.