Pre-operative indicators for mortality following hip fracture surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Validation of the Geriatrics at Risk Score (GeRi-Score) on 120-day follow-up, the influence of preoperative geriatric visits, and the time to surgery on the outcome of hip fracture patients: an analysis from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma (ATR-DGU)

A validation of the GeRi-Score on 120-day mortality, the impact of a pre-operative visit by a geriatrician, and timing of surgery on the outcome was conducted. The score has predictive value for 120-day mortality. No advantage was found for surgery within 24 h or a preoperative geriatric visit.

PURPOSE

Numerous tools predict mortality among patients with hip fractures, but they include many variables, require time-consuming assessment, and are difficult to calculate. The GeRi-Score provides a quick method of pre-operative assessment. The aim of this study is to validate the score in the 120-day follow-up and determine the impact of a pre-operative visit by a geriatrician and timing of surgery on the patient outcome.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the AltersTraumaRegister DGU® from 2017 to 2021 was conducted, including all proximal femur fractures. The patients were divided into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups based on the GeRi-Score. Mortality was analyzed using logistic regression. To determine the influence of the time to surgery and the preoperative visit by a geriatrician, matching was performed using the exact GeRi-Score, preoperative walking ability, type of fracture, and the time to surgery.

RESULTS

The study included 38,570 patients, divided into 12,673 low-risk, 18,338 moderate-risk, and 7,559 high-risk patients. The moderate-risk group had three times the mortality risk of the low-risk group (OR 3.19 (95% CI 2.68-3.79; p<0.001)), while the high-risk group had almost eight times the mortality risk than the low-risk group (OR 7.82 (95% CI 6.51-9.93; p<0.001)). No advantage was found for surgery within the first 24 h across all groups. There was a correlation of a preoperative geriatric visit and mortality showing an increase in the moderate and high-risk group on in-house mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The GeRi-Score has predictive value for 120-day mortality. No advantage was found for surgery within 24 h. The analysis did not demonstrate a benefit of the preoperative geriatric visit, but more data are needed.

Preoperative electrocardiogram in prediction of 90-day postoperative mortality: retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There are conflicting data on the relationship between preoperative electrocardiogram and postoperative mortality. We aimed to assess the predictive value of preoperative ECG on postoperative all-cause mortality in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery (NCS).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed records of hospitalized patients who underwent an internal preoperative examination and subsequent NCS in the years 2015-2021. We recorded patient comorbidities, vital functions, results of biochemical tests, ECG. The primary end point was 90-day postoperative all-cause mortality, acquired from the hospital records and the nationwide registry run by the Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic.

RESULTS

We enrolled a total of 2219 patients of mean age 63 years (48% women). Of these, 152 (6.8%) died during the 90-day postoperative period. There were statistically significant associations between increased 90-day postoperative all-cause mortality and abnormal ECG findings in resting heart rate (≥ 80 bpm, relative risk [RR] = 1.82 and ≥ 100 bpm, RR = 2.57), presence of atrial fibrillation (RR = 4.51), intraventricular conduction delay (QRS > 0.12 s, RR = 2.57), ST segment changes and T wave alterations, left bundle branch hemiblock (RR = 1.64), and right (RR = 2.04) and left bundle branch block (RR = 4.13), but not abnormal PQ and QT intervals, paced rhythm, incomplete right bundle branch block, or other ECG abnormalities. A resting heart rate (≥ 80 bpm, relative risk [RR] = 1.95 and ≥ 100 bpm, RR = 2.20), atrial fibrillation (RR = 2.10), and right bundle branch block (RR = 2.52) were significantly associated with 90-day postoperative all-cause mortality even in subgroup of patients with pre-existing cardiac comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with abnormal preoperative ECG findings face an elevated risk of all-cause mortality within 90 days after surgery. The highest mortality risk is observed in patients with atrial fibrillation and left bundle branch block. Additionally, an elevated heart rate, right bundle branch block, and atrial fibrillation further increase the risk of death in patients with pre-existing cardiac conditions.

The Impact of Frailty and Gender Differences on Hospitalization and Complications in Proximal Femoral Pathological Fractures: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Frailty associated with aging increases the risk of falls, disability, and death. The aim of this study is to explore gender-related disparities in the survival outcomes of pathological femoral fractures in older frail patients, while analyzing potential specific prognostic factors.

METHODS

This study is a retrospective observational analysis conducted at a single medical center. It enrolled all patients aged 65 and above who were admitted to our emergency department between 2016 and 2020 with a diagnosis of pathological femur fracture requiring surgical intervention. The primary study endpoint was evaluating gender-related differences in survival outcomes. The secondary endpoint involves investigating gender-specific prognostic factors through the analysis of clinical and laboratory parameters.

RESULTS

The average Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was slightly lower in men, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.53). The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) showed similar results, with men and women 5.23 (SD 1.46), also not significant (p = 0.83). An evaluation comparing patients aged 75 years or younger to those older than 75 years found significant differences in health metrics. The average CCI was higher in the over 75 group compared to the under 75 group, with a p-value of 0.001. Similarly, the CFS average was also greater in the over 75 group than in the under 75 group, with a p-value of 0.0001. Complications were more frequent in patients over 75 and those with lower educational qualifications. The evaluation analyzed cardiac patients compared to a control group, revealing that the average age of cardiac patients was 75.22 years, while the control group was younger at 73.98 years (p = 0.5119). The CCI for cardiac patients averaged 6.53, significantly higher than 4.43 for non-cardiac patients (p = 0.0003).

CONCLUSION

Frailty assessment is therefore essential in patients with pathological fracture of the proximal femur and is an important predictor of both gender differences and hospital complications. Enhancing gender analysis in this field is crucial to gather more robust evidence and deeper comprehension of potential sex- and gender-based disparities.

The use of minimum common data set in the development of the Greek Fragility Hip Fracture Registry in the Greek health care setting: the first year of its pilot implementation

The first Fragility Hip Fracture Registry has been established in Greece. The in-hospital length of stay was 10.8 days and was significantly influenced by the delayed surgical fixation. The increased age, the higher ASA grade, and the male gender influenced negatively the 30-day mortality, which reached 7.5%.

BACKGROUND

The increased incidence of fragility hip fractures constitutes a great challenge to the health care professionals and causes a significant burden on national health care systems around the globe. Fragility hip fracture registries have been used in many countries in order to document the cotemporary situation in each country and to identify potential weaknesses of the local health care systems.

AIM

The aim of the herein study is to present the results of the pilot implementation of the first fragility hip fracture registry in Greece, which was developed by the Greek Chapter of Fragility Fracture Network (FFN Gr), and use the neural networks in the analysis of the results.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Seven orthopaedic departments from six different hospitals in Greece participated in the present pilot study. All fragility hip fractures from September 2022 until December 2023 were prospectively collected and documented using a central database. For this purpose, the 22 points of minimum common data set, proposed by the Global Fragility Fracture Network, with the addition of the 30-day mortality was used.

RESULTS

A total of 1009 patients who sustained a fragility hip fracture were included in the study. The mean age of the cohort was 82.2 ± 8.6 years with the majority of patients being female (72%). Sixty percent (60%) of the patients had an extracapsular hip fracture, with a mean ASA grade 2.6 ± 0.8. Intramedullary nailing and hip hemiarthroplasty were the surgical treatments of choice in the majority of extra- and intra-capsular hip fractures respectively. The mean hospital length of stay of the patients was 10.8 ± 8.5 days, and the 30-day mortality was 7.5%. The multivariant analysis revealed that the age, the ASA grade and the male gender had a significant contribution to the 30-day mortality. The neural network model had a significant under-the-curve predictive value (0.778), with age being the most important predictive factor. The length of stay was significantly influenced only by the delayed surgical fixation (more than 36 h from admission).

CONCLUSIONS

The present pilot study provides evidence that establishing a fragility hip fracture registry in Greece is feasible and demonstrates that the minimum common data set can be used as the base of any new registry. In Greece, patients with a fragility hip fracture stay in the hospital for approximately 11 days and have 7.5% 30-day mortality. Unfortunately, due to the logistics of the public healthcare system, they do not receive surgical fixation in a timely manner, which is a factor that negatively affects their length of in-hospital stay.

Predictors of mortality over time in geriatric patients with hip fracture

Objectives

The aim of this study was to determine the variations in effect for predictors of mortality over time and risk of in-hospital complications in geriatric patients with a hip fracture. Many studies have investigated risk factors of short-term and long-term mortality separately. In current literature, little is known about the variations in effect of risk factors over time and no comparison with the general population is made.

Methods

All patients with a hip fracture aged 70 years or older admitted to our hospital between January 1, 2016, and May 1, 2018, were included in this retrospective study. Patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty (THA) were not included. The primary outcome was mortality after 1 year. Secondary outcomes were mortality after 30 days, 90 days, 2 years, and complications. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves for risk factors were generated to visualize survival over time. Data were compared with data extracted from the national health records.

Results

A total of 685 geriatric patients with hip fractures were included with a 1-year mortality of 27%. The adjusted odds ratios (AOR) found differed over time. Five risk factors for mortality were investigated in this study using KM curves: age, prefracture living situation, dementia, sex, and ASA classification.

Conclusions

Over time, the variation of 5 risk factors for mortality were visualized in geriatric patients with a hip fracture: age, prefracture living situation, dementia, sex, and ASA classification. An elevated risk of mortality was discovered compared with the general population. The variation in effect observed in risk factors plays a vital role in prognosis. This insight will help guide accurate medical decision-making for a tailored treatment plan for geriatric patients with a hip fracture.

Correlation between Charlson comorbidity index and surgical prognosis in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

Femoral neck fractures (FNF) are known to have significant morbidity and mortality rates. Multiple chronic conditions (MCC) are defined as the presence of two or more chronic diseases that greatly affect the quality of life in older adults. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of MCC and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) on surgical outcomes in patients with FNF.

METHODS

Patients with FNF who underwent joint replacement surgery were selected for this study. Patients who had two or more diseases simultaneously were divided into two groups: the MCC group and the non-MCC (NMCC) group. The CCI was calculated to assess the severity of patients' comorbidities in the MCC group. Baseline data, surgical details, and prognosis-related indicators were analyzed and compared between the two patient groups. Spearman correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationship between CCI and length of hospital stay, Harris score, skeletal muscle index (SMI), and age. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for mortality in FNF patients at 1 and 5 years after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 103 patients were included in the MCC group, while the NMCC group consisted of 40 patients. However, the patients in the MCC group were found to be older, had a higher incidence of sarcopenia, and lower SMI values (p < 0.001). Patients in the MCC group had longer hospitalization times, lower Harris scores, higher intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates, and higher complication rates (p = 0.045, p = 0.035, p = 0.019, p = 0.010). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that CCI was positively correlated with hospitalization and age (p < 0.001, p < 0.001), while it was negatively correlated with Harris score and SMI value (p < 0.001, p < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that MCC patients had higher 1-year and 5-year mortality rates. Hospitalization time was identified as a risk factor for death in FNF patients 1 year after joint replacement (p < 0.001), whereas CCI and age were identified as risk factors for death 5 years after surgery (p < 0.001, p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis results showed that the difference in death time between the two groups of patients with MCC and NMCC was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Cox proportional hazard model analysis showed that CCI, age and SMI were risk factors affecting patient death.

CONCLUSION

The surgical prognosis of patients with MCC, CCI and FNF is related. The higher the CCI, the worse the patient's function and the higher the long-term risk of death.

Matters We Metric Vs. Metrics that Matter

Introduction

Geriatric fracture is a pressing global health issue, marked by elevated mortality and morbidity rates and escalating health care costs. The evolving health care system from fee-for-service to quality-based reimbursement has led to externally driven reward and reimbursement systems that may not account for the complexity of caring for older adults with fracture.

Significance

The aim of this review is to highlight the need for a shift towards meaningful metrics that impact geriatric fracture care and to issue a call to action for all medical societies to advocate for national reimbursement and ranking systems that focus on metrics that truly matter.

Results

Traditional metrics, while easier to capture, may not necessarily represent high quality care and may even have unintentional adverse consequences. For example, the focus on reducing length of stay may lead to older patients being discharged too early, without adequately addressing pain, constipation, or delirium. In addition, a focus on mortality may miss the opportunity to deliver compassionate end-of-life care. Existing geriatric fracture care metrics have expanded beyond traditional metrics to include assessment by geriatricians, fracture prevention, and delirium assessments. However, there is a need to further consider and develop patient-focused metrics. The Age-Friendly Health Initiative (4 Ms), which includes Mobility, Medication, Mentation, and what Matters is an evidence-based framework for assessing and acting on critical issues in the care of older adults. Additional metrics that should be considered include an assessment of nutrition and secondary fracture prevention.

Conclusion

In the realm of geriatric fracture care, the metrics currently employed often revolve around adherence to established guidelines and are heavily influenced by financial considerations. It is crucial to shift the paradigm towards metrics that truly matter for geriatric fracture patients, recognizing the multifaceted nature of their care and the profound impact these fractures have on their lives.

Validation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index for the prediction of 30-day and 1-year mortality among patients who underwent hip fracture surgery

INTRODUCTION

The aim of our study was to validate the original Charlson Comorbidity Index (1987) (CCI) and adjusted CCI (2011) as a prediction model for 30-day and 1-year mortality after hip fracture surgery. The secondary aim of this study was to verify each variable of the CCI as a factor associated with 30-day and 1-year mortality.

METHODS

A prospective database of two-level II trauma teaching hospitals in the Netherlands was used. The original CCI from 1987 and the adjusted CCI were calculated based on medical history. To validate the original CCI and the adjusted CCI, the CCI was plotted against the observed 30-day and 1-year mortality, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 3523 patients were included in this cohort study. The mean of the original CCI in this cohort was 5.1 (SD ± 2.0) and 4.6 (SD ± 1.9) for the adjusted CCI. The AUCs of the prediction models were 0.674 and 0.696 for 30-day mortality for the original and adjusted CCIs, respectively. The AUCs for 1-year mortality were 0.705 and 0.717 for the original and adjusted CCIs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher original and adjusted CCI is associated with a higher mortality rate. The AUC was relatively low for 30-day and 1-year mortality for both the original and adjusted CCIs compared to other prediction models for hip fracture patients in our cohort. The CCI is not recommended for the prediction of 30-day and 1-year mortality in hip fracture patients.

Postoperative Care and Outcomes in Solid-Organ Transplant Patients Undergoing Lower Extremity Fracture Treatment

OBJECTIVES

To determine the postoperative outcomes in solid-organ transplant (SOT) patients undergoing operative treatment of lower extremity fractures.

METHODS

DESIGN

Retrospective comparative study.

SETTING

Academic Level 1 trauma center.

PATIENT SELECTION CRITERIA

Patients who underwent SOT and operative treatment of lower extremity fracture from 2013 to 2021 were identified, excluding pathologic fractures.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND COMPARISONS

Postoperative complications, length of stay, time to death, 90-day and 1-year readmission rates, readmission causes, discharge location, and immunosuppressive regiments.

RESULTS

Sixty-one patients with an average age of 67 years (range 29-88) were included. The mortality rate was 37.7%. The average follow-up was 15.2 months (range of 2 weeks-10 years). The majority of patients (32.8%) had received a liver transplant, and femoral neck fractures constituted the largest fracture group. The average length of stay was 10 days, with the shortest being 1 day and the longest being 126 days (SD 18). The majority of patients (57.3%) were not discharged home. Only 2 suffered from a postoperative complication requiring another procedure: hardware removal and liner exchange for periprosthetic joint infection, respectively. There was a 27.9% 90-day readmission rate with 2 deaths within that period with the most common being altered mental status (29.4%), genitourinary infections (17.6%), repeat falls (11.8%), and low hemoglobin requiring transfusion (11.8%). The longest average time to death analyzed by transplant type was found among lung transplant patients (1076 days, 62.5% mortality), followed by liver transplant patients (949 days, 35.0% mortality), and then kidney transplant patients (834 days, 38.9% mortality). The shortest time to death was 71 days from index procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

Family members of SOT patients undergoing operative treatment of lower extremity fractures should be made aware of the high risk for 90-day readmission postoperatively (27.9%) and overall mortality (12.5%). Providers should be aware of the need for multidisciplinary involvement for inpatient care, monitoring postoperative complications, and facilitating discharge planning.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

One-year mortality risk in older individuals with femoral intertrochanteric fracture: a tertiary center in China

BACKGROUND

The accelerated growth of older individuals worldwide has increased the number of patients presenting with fragility hip fractures. Having a hip fracture can cause excess mortality, and patients with hip fracture have a higher risk of death than those without hip fracture. Most studies have treated hip fracture as a single, homogeneous condition, but hip fracture includes two major anatomic types: intertrochanteric fracture and femoral neck fracture. Few studies have specifically evaluated 1-year mortality risk in older individuals with femoral intertrochanteric fracture. The aim of this study was to evaluate 1-year mortality and factors associated with mortality in older individuals with femoral intertrochanteric fracture.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted of 563 patients ≥ 65 years old who underwent surgery for femoral intertrochanteric fractures at our institution between January 2010 and August 2018. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and treatment were collected by retrospective chart review. Age, sex, Body Mass Index (BMI), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Arbeitsgemeinschaft Für Osteosynthesefragen (AO) fracture classification, haemoglobin value at admission, time to surgery, operation time, and intraoperative blood loss were risk factors to be tested. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between variables and death.

RESULTS

Among the 563 patients, 49 died within 1 year after surgery, and the 1-year mortality rate was 8.7%. Multivariate analysis identified age > 80 years (OR = 4.038, P = 0.011), haemoglobin < 100 g/l (OR = 2.732, P = 0.002), ASA score ≥ 3 (OR = 2.551, P = 0.005), CCI ≥ 3 (OR = 18.412, P = 0.018) and time to surgery > 14 d (OR = 3.907, P = 0.030) as independent risk factors for 1-year mortality. Comorbidities such as myocardial infarction and chronic pulmonary disease were associated with 1-year mortality after adjusting for age > 80 years and time to surgery > 14 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients over 80 years old with haemoglobin < 100 g/l, ASA score ≥ 3, CCI ≥ 3, and multiple comorbidities, especially myocardial infarction and chronic pulmonary disease before surgery, are at a higher risk of 1-year mortality. Doctors should pay more attention to these vulnerable patients, and a surgical delay greater than 14 days should be avoided.

Development of Prediction Model for 1-year Mortality after Hip Fracture Surgery

Purpose

Hip fractures are associated with increased mortality. The identification of risk factors of mortality could improve patient care. The aim of the study was to identify risk factors of mortality after surgery for a hip fracture and construct a mortality model.

Materials and Methods

A cohort study was conducted on patients with hip fractures at two institutions. Five hundred and ninety-seven patients with hip fractures that were treated in the tertiary hospital, and another 147 patients that were treated in a secondary hospital. The perioperative data were collected from medical charts and interviews. Functional Assessment Measure score, Short Form-12 and mortality were recorded at 12 months. Patients and surgery variables that were associated with increased mortality were used to develop a mortality model.

Results

Mortality for the whole cohort was 19.4% at one year. From the variables tested only age >80 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists category, time to surgery (>48 hours), Charlson comorbidity index, sex, use of anti-coagulants, and body mass index <25 kg/m2 were associated with increased mortality and used to construct the mortality model. The area under the curve for the prediction model was 0.814. Functional outcome at one year was similar to preoperative status, even though their level of physical function dropped after the hip surgery and slowly recovered.

Conclusion

The mortality prediction model that was developed in this study calculates the risk of death at one year for patients with hip fractures, is simple, and could detect high risk patients that need special management.

Predictors of long-term mortality in older patients with hip fractures managed by hemiarthroplasty: a 10-year study based on a population registry in Saxony, Germany

BACKGROUND

Mortality of patients with a femoral neck fracture is high, especially within the first year after surgery, but also remains elevated thereafter. The aim of this study was to identify factors potentially associated with long-term mortality in patients homogeneously treated with hemiarthroplasty for femoral neck fracture.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was performed at a single level 1 national trauma center at the university hospital of Leipzig (Saxony, Germany). The study time-window was January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020. Primary outcome measure was mortality depending on individual patient-related characteristics and perioperative risk factors. Inclusion criteria was a low-energy femoral neck fracture (Garden I-IV) in geriatric patients 60 years of age or older that were primarily treated with bipolar hemiarthroplasty. Date of death or actual residence of patients alive was obtained from the population register of the eastern German state of Saxony, Germany. The outcome was tested using the log-rank test and plotted using Kaplan-Meier curves. Unadjusted and adjusted for other risk factors such as sex and age, hazard ratios were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models and presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

The 458 included patients had a median age of 83 (IQR 77-89) years, 346 (75%) were female and 113 (25%) male patients. Mortality rates after 30 days, 1, 5 and 10 years were 13%, 25%, 60% and 80%, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis revealed age (HR = 1.1; p < 0.001), male gender (HR = 1.6; p < 0.001), ASA-Score 3-4 vs. 1-2 (HR = 1.3; p < 0.001), dementia (HR = 1.9; p < 0.001) and a history of malignancy (HR = 1.6; p = 0.002) as independent predictors for a higher long-term mortality risk. Perioperative factors such as preoperative waiting time, early surgical complications, or experience of the surgeon were not associated with a higher overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study based on data from the population registry from Saxony, Germany the 10-year mortality of older patients above 60 years of age managed with hemiarthroplasty for femoral neck fracture was 80%. Independent risk factors for increased long-term mortality were higher patient age, male gender, severe comorbidity, a history of cancer and in particular dementia. Perioperative factors did not affect long-term mortality.

Walking self-confidence and lower levels of anxiety are associated with meeting recommended levels of physical activity after hip fracture: a cross-sectional study

PURPOSE

To explore whether psychological factors are associated with ability to meet recommended physical activity thresholds after hip fracture.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cross-sectional observational study of 216 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years after hip fracture (mean age 79 SD 7 years, 70% female). Multiple ordinal regression analysis determined factors associated with meeting physical activity thresholds related to positive health outcomes: 4,400 and 7,100 daily steps. Explanatory variables were: walking self-confidence; falls self-efficacy; depression; anxiety; co-morbidities; previous gait aid use; nutritional status; age; and gender.

RESULTS

Forty-three participants (20%) met the lower threshold of ≥4,400 to <7,100 steps and thirty participants (14%) met the upper threshold of ≥7,100 steps. Walking self-confidence was positively associated with meeting higher physical activity thresholds (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.32: 95% CI 1.11 to 1.57, p = 0.002). Age (AOR 0.93: 95% CI 0.89 to 0.98, p = 0.003), DASS-21 anxiety score (AOR 0.81: 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94, p = 0.008) and comorbidity index score (AOR 0.52: 95% CI 0.36 to 0.72, p < 0.001) were negatively associated with meeting higher physical activity thresholds.

CONCLUSION

Walking self-confidence and anxiety are potentially modifiable factors associated with meeting physical activity thresholds related to positive health outcomes after hip fracture.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of preoperative predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery

Hip fractures are a global health problem with a high postoperative mortality rate. Preoperative predictors for early mortality could be used to optimise and personalise healthcare strategies. This study aimed to identify predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery. Cohort studies examining independent preoperative predictors for mortality following hip fracture surgery were identified through a systematic search on Scopus and PubMed. Predictors for 30-day mortality were the primary outcome, and predictors for mortality within 1 year were secondary outcomes. Primary outcomes were analysed with random-effects meta-analyses. Confidence in the cumulative evidence was assessed using the GRADE criteria. Secondary outcomes were synthesised narratively. Thirty-three cohort studies involving 462,699 patients were meta-analysed. Five high-quality evidence predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: age per year (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07), ASA score ≥ 3 (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 2.12-3.42), male gender (OR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.85-2.18), institutional residence (OR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.31-2.49), and metastatic cancer (OR: 2.83, 95% CI: 2.58-3.10). Additionally, six moderate-quality evidence predictors were identified: chronic renal failure, dementia, diabetes, low haemoglobin, heart failures, and a history of any malignancy. Weak evidence was found for non-metastatic cancer. This review found relevant preoperative predictors which could be used to identify patients who are at high risk of 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery. For some predictors, the prognostic value could be increased by further subcategorising the conditions by severity.

Risk Factors for 30-Days Mortality After Proximal Femoral Fracture Surgery, a Cohort Study

Purpose

The primary objective of this study was to identify new risk factors and to confirm previously reported risk factors associated with 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Patients and methods

A prospective hip fracture database was used to obtain data. In total, 3523 patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between 2011 and 2021 were included. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to screen and identify candidate risk factors. Twenty-seven baseline factors and 16 peri-operative factors were included in the univariable analysis and 28 of those factors were included in multivariable analysis.

Results

8.6% of the patients who underwent hip fracture surgery died within 30 days after surgery. Prognostic factors associated with 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery were as follows: age 90-100 years (OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.07-19.98, p = 0.041) and above 100 years (OR = 11.3, 95% CI: 1.28-100.26, p = 0.029), male gender (OR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.97-3.33, p < 0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) 3 and ASA 4 (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.44-3.14, p < 0.001), medical history of dementia (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.25-2.36, p = 0.001), decreased albumin level (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.97, p < 0.001), decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001), residential status of nursing home (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.44-2.87, p < 0.001), higher Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (KATZ-ADL) score (OR = 1.1, 95% CI: 1.01-1.16, p=0.018) and postoperative pneumonia (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.72-3.38, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

A high mortality rate in patients after acute hip fracture surgery is known. Factors that are associated with an increased mortality are age above 90 years, male gender, ASA 3 and ASA 4, medical history of dementia, decreased albumin, decreased GFR, residential status of nursing home, higher KATZ-ADL score and postoperative pneumonia.

For Surgically Treated Geriatric Acetabular Fractures, Longer Duration between Admission and Surgery Is Associated with an Increase in Post-operative Complications: A Study Using the National Trauma Data Bank

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study was to determine whether time from hospital admission to surgery is associated with inpatient complications and mortality for geriatric patients undergoing surgical treatment of acetabular fractures.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using the National Trauma Data Bank from 2016 to 2018 of patients presenting to level I through IV trauma centers in the United States. All patients aged 60 years or older with acetabular fractures requiring surgical treatment were included. The main outcome measurements were inpatient mortality and complication rates.

RESULTS

There were 6,036 patients who met inclusion criteria. The median age was 69 years (interquartile range 64-76 years). The odds of a complication increased by 7% for each additional day between hospital admission and surgery (multivariable regression OR 1.07, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.10; P < 0.001). Complications were also associated with patient age (OR 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.06; P < 0.001) and mCCI ≥ 5 (OR 2.52, 95% CI = 1.4 to 4.2; P = 0.001). Inpatient mortality was not associated with time to surgery (OR 0.97, 95% CI = 0.92 to 1.02; P = 0.30), but was associated with patient age (OR 1.07, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.10; P < 0.001; P < 0.001) and mCCI ≥ 5 (OR 4.62, 95% CI = 2.31 to 8.50; P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

In this database study, time from hospital admission to surgery was associated with a notable increase in inpatient complications but not inpatient mortality after adjusting for potentially confounding variables while age and mCCI were associated with both mortality and complications. Additional research is needed to determine the relationship between time to surgery with longer term mortality and complications and to assess causality.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level III.

The Nomogram Model and Factors for the Postoperative Mortality of Elderly Patients with Femoral Neck Fracture Undergoing Artificial Hip Arthroplasty: A Single-Institution 6-Year Experience

OBJECTIVE

Artificial hip arthroplasty (AHA) is widely accepted in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures, but it is associated with high risk of death and various postoperative complications due to old age and accompanying chronic diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the risk factors for death in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures after AHA and to establish a nomogram risk prediction model, which is expected to reveal high-risk patients and improve the postoperative quality of life and survival rate of patients.

METHODS

Elderly patients who underwent AHA for femoral neck fractures in our hospital from September 2014 to May 2021were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were divided into a survival group and a death group according to their clinical outcomes. The following clinical data were recorded for the patients in the two groups: sex, age, underlying diseases, smoking and drinking history, preoperative nutritional risk score (NRS) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, as well as relevant indicators about the operation. These data were subject to univariate analysis and then logistic analysis to determine the risk factors of death. Subsequently, a nomogram risk prediction model was established and further validated with the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Finally, the effects of predictive risk factors were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve.

RESULTS

Follow-up was completed by 260 patients, including 206 patients in the survival group and 54 patients in the death group; the overall death rate was 20.77%, and the follow-up time, age, postoperative 1, 3 and 5-year death rates were 3.47 ± 1.93 years, 75.32 ± 9.12 years, 5.77%, 12.51%, and 25.61%, respectively. The top three causes of death in 54 patients were respiratory disease, cerebrocardiovascular disease, and digestive disease, respectively. The logistic analysis indicated that elderly patients with femoral neck fractures, the risk factors for death after AHA were age ≥ 80 years, preoperative NRS ≥ 4, HB ≤ 90 g/L, CR ≥ 110 umol/L, and ASA score ≥ 3, as well as postoperative albumin ≤ 35 g/L, the nomogram was established, and then its predictive performance was successfully validated using the ROC curve (AUC = 0.814, 95% confidence interval = 0.749-0.879) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.840). Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis revealed that the abovementioned six indicators were correlated with the post-AHA survival time of elderly patients with femoral neck fractures (pLog Rank  < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Old age, preoperatively high NRS and ASA score, anemia, poor renal function, and postoperative hypoproteinemia are the major risk factors for death in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures after AHA; they are also associated with postoperative survival. Early identification and effective interventions for optimization of modifiable risk factors are recommended to improve the postoperative quality of life and survival rates.

Survival and Results after Resection and Reconstruction with Megaprosthesis at the Hip in Octogenarians

Few data are available about results after procedures of resection and megaprosthesis at the hip in very elderly patients. The aim of our study was to ascertain survival and complications in patients aged 80 or older undergoing these major orthopedic procedures. A consecutive series of 27 procedures in 26 patients aged 80-93 years was evaluated. In total, 15 procedures were performed due to oncological diseases, 6 were performed following joint arthroplasty failures or periprosthetic fractures, and 6 were performed after trauma or trauma sequelae. Survival of the patients ranged from 0 to 122 months. Overall survival was 56% at 3 years, 24% at 5 years, and 16% at 8 years. An early postoperative death during the first 3 months occurred in five patients (18.5%). The only preoperative parameter negatively affecting survival was preoperative hemoglobin lower than 11 g/dL. Local complications were similar to reported rates in all-age patients' series. In our experience, resection and megaprosthetic reconstruction can also be a valid choice in very elderly patients, with 56% of patients living more than two years from surgery and 24% more than five. Nevertheless, early postoperative deaths are frequent. A multidisciplinary evaluation of frailty of the patient must be accomplished, and patients and relatives must be informed about the risks of the procedure.

Early mobilisation following fragility hip fracture surgery: current trends and association with discharge outcomes in a local tertiary hospital

Introduction

Postoperative day 1 (POD 1) mobilisation is a key clinical indicator for the fragility hip fracture surgery population. This study aimed to evaluate the current trends of POD 1 mobilisation at our institution and to review the relationships between early mobilisation and outcomes of early functional recovery, length of stay (LOS) and discharge destination.

Methods

In this preliminary observational study, data pertaining to demographics, premorbid function, health status, injury and surgical factors, POD 1 mobilisation status and clinical outcomes of interest were retrieved from eligible patients. Patients who attained POD 1 ambulation formed the early ambulation (EA) group, while the remaining patients formed the delayed ambulation (DA) group. Data were analysed for any significant difference between the groups.

Results

One hundred and fifteen patients were included in the analysis. The rate of patients achieving at least sitting out of bed on POD 1 was 80.0% (n=92), which was comparable to the data available from international hip fracture audit databases. There were 55 (47.8%) patients in the EA group and 60 (52.5%) patients in the DA group. The EA group was approximately nine times more likely to achieve independence in ambulation at discharge compared to the DA group (adjusted odds ratio 9.20, 95% confidence interval 1.50-56.45; P = 0.016). There were observed trends of shorter LOS and more proportion of home discharge in the EA group compared to the DA group (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

This is the first local study to offer benchmark of the POD 1 mobilisation status for this population. Patients who attained POD 1 ambulation had better early functional recovery.

Indoor falls and number of previous falls are independent risk factors for long-term mortality after a hip fracture

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are almost always the result of a fall. Causes and circumstances of falls may differ between frail and vigorous patients.

AIM

To describe the circumstances of falls causing hip fractures, number of falls during the previous year, and their association with long-term mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study is a retrospective review conducted in a tertiary university hospital serving a population of 425,000 inhabitants in Barcelona. All patients admitted with hip fractures with medical records describing the circumstances and number of previous falls were included. The number of falls in the previous 12 months was recorded, including the one causing the fracture. The circumstances of the index fall were dichotomized according to whether it was from the patient's own height or above; day or night; indoors or outdoors, due to intrinsic or extrinsic causes. Cumulative mortality was recorded for almost 5 years after hip fracture.

RESULTS

Indoor falls were strongly associated with shorter survival. Falling more than once in the previous year was also a risk factor for long-term mortality (hazard ratio 1.461, p < 0.001 and hazard ratio 1.035, p = 0.008 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Indoor falls and falling more than once in the previous year are long-term risk factors for mortality after hip fractures. It is always essential to take a careful patient history on admission to determine the number of falls and their circumstances, and special care should be taken to reduce mortality in patients at high risk.

Clinical data or scoring system for predicting mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture: A prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture in elderly individuals is frequent and is related to a high rate of mortality. Finding the best predictor of death will help to develop better patient care. Aim - To analyze the reliability of the clinical data and assessment scores to predict mortality in acute hip fracture in elderly patients.

PATIENT AND METHODS

Prospective data were collected from all patients > 65 years with acute hip fracture from May to October 2020. The clinical data collected were age, sex, comorbidities, medication, type of fracture and presence of delirium. The assessment scores were ASA, Lee, ACP and Charlson.

RESULTS

The statistically significant results were age > 80 years (OR 1.121 IC95% [1.028-1.221] p = 0.0101) and number of medications (OR5.991 95% CI [2.422-14.823] p <0.001). Three scores showed a correlation with mortality: ASA score (p = 0.017), Lee score (p = 0.024) and ACP score (p = 0.013). The Charlson Comorbidity Index did not correlate with mortality (p = 0.172).

CONCLUSION

To stratify the risk of death, both clinical data and scores should be used. The best clinical indicators are age and number of medications, and the scores are ASA, Lee and ACP.

Does Femoral Arterial Calcification Have an Effect on Mortality in Patients Who Underwent Hemiarthroplasty Due to Hip Fracture?

AIM

We aimed to investigate the effect of femoral arterial calcification on mortality in patients who underwent hemiarthroplasty due to hip fracture.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In our study, 481 patients who were operated for hip fracture between 01.01.2015 and 01.01.2021 were evaluated retrospectively. Femoral arterial calcification on the fractured side was evaluated in the preoperative pelvic anteroposterior (AP) X-ray, and the patients were divided into two subgroups according to the presence or absence of femoral arterial calcification. The overall survival and first-month and first-year survival of the patients were evaluated. Patients' age, gender, side, fracture type, treatment method, time between fracture and operation date, presence of femoral arterial calcification and type of anesthesia (regional, general) were recorded.

RESULTS

Of the 481 patients included in the study, 299 were female and 182 were male, and the mean age was calculated as 80.5. Of the patients, 187 were diagnosed with femoral neck fractures and the remaining 294 with pertrochanteric fractures. It was observed that the mortality rate in the first month after surgery was 58 (12%) for both groups, and the mortality rate in the first year was 173 (35.9%) for both groups. The overall postoperative mortality was calculated as 302 (62.7%) for both groups. Femoral arterial calcification was detected in 191 of 481 patients, and femoral arterial calcification was not observed in the remaining 290 patients. Similarly, when both groups were compared in terms of mortality in the first month after surgery, mortality in the first year and overall mortality rates, no significant difference was found between the groups (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

In our study we showed that femoral arterial calcification has no effect on mortality in acute hip fractures treated by hemiarthroplasty in people over 65 years of age.

Development and Validation of Multivariable Prediction Models for In-Hospital Death, 30-Day Death, and Change in Residence After Hip Fracture Surgery and the "Stratify-Hip" Algorithm

BACKGROUND

To develop and validate the stratify-hip algorithm (multivariable prediction models to predict those at low, medium, and high risk across in-hospital death, 30-day death, and residence change after hip fracture).

METHODS

Multivariable Fine-Gray and logistic regression of audit data linked to hospital records for older adults surgically treated for hip fracture in England/Wales 2011-14 (development n = 170 411) and 2015-16 (external validation, n = 90 102). Outcomes included time to in-hospital death, death at 30 days, and time to residence change. Predictors included age, sex, pre-fracture mobility, dementia, and pre-fracture residence (not for residence change). Model assumptions, performance, and sensitivity to missingness were assessed. Models were incorporated into the stratify-hip algorithm assigning patients to overall low (low risk across outcomes), medium (low death risk, medium/high risk of residence change), or high (high risk of in-hospital death, high/medium risk of 30-day death) risk.

RESULTS

For complete-case analysis, 6 780 of 141 158 patients (4.8%) died in-hospital, 8 693 of 149 258 patients (5.8%) died by 30 days, and 4 461 of 119 420 patients (3.7%) had residence change. Models demonstrated acceptable calibration (observed:expected ratio 0.90, 0.99, and 0.94), and discrimination (area under curve 73.1, 71.1, and 71.5; Brier score 5.7, 5.3, and 5.6) for in-hospital death, 30-day death, and residence change, respectively. Overall, 31%, 28%, and 41% of patients were assigned to overall low, medium, and high risk. External validation and missing data analyses elicited similar findings. The algorithm is available at https://stratifyhip.co.uk.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study developed and validated the stratify-hip algorithm as a new tool to risk stratify patients after hip fracture.

The Association Between Red Cell Distribution Width (RDW) and All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hip Fractures: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Red cell distribution width (RDW) may be related to the prognosis of hip fractures. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between (RDW) and all-cause mortality in elderly hip fractures.

Materials and Methods

Elderly patients aged ≥65 years who had a hip fracture were screened between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019. The age, gender of patients and other demographics, as well as history of allergy, injury mechanism, underlying illnesses at the time of admission, fracture classification, time from admission to operation, RDW, operation time, blood loss, infusion, transfusion, treatment strategy, and length in hospital stay and follow-up and other clinical characteristics were collected. Linear and nonlinear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the association between RDW and mortality in these patients. Analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and the R software.

Results

A total of 2587 patients were included in this retrospective cohort study. The mean follow-up period was 38.92 months. A total of 873 (33.75%) patients died due to all-cause mortality. The RDW was linearly associated with mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures. Linear multivariate Cox regression models showed that RDW was associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.02-1.05, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for confounding factors. The mortality risk increased by 3% when RDW increased by 1 fL.

Conclusion

RDW is associated with mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures, and RDW could be considered a predictor of mortality risk.

Registration

ChiCTR2200057323.

Ambulation Distance Within 72 Hours after Surgical Management Is a Predictor of 90-Day Ambulatory Capacity in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture

INTRODUCTION

The inability to mobilize after surgical intervention for hip fractures in the elderly is established as a risk factor for greater morbidity and mortality. Previous studies have evaluated the association between the timing and distance of ambulation in the postoperative acute care phase with postoperative complications. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between ambulatory distance in the acute postoperative setting and ambulatory capacity at 3 months.

METHODS

Patients aged 65 and older who were ambulatory at baseline and underwent surgical intervention for hip fractures from 2014 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Consistent with previous literature, patients were divided into two groups: those who were able to ambulate 5 feet within 72 hours after surgical fixation (early ambulatory) and those who were not (minimally ambulatory).

RESULTS

One hundred seventy patients (84 early ambulatory and 86 minimally ambulatory) were available for analysis. Using a multivariable ordinal logistic regression model, variables found to be statistically significant predictors of ambulatory status at 3 months were the ability to ambulate five feet in 72 hours (P < 0.0001), ambulatory distance at discharge (P = 0.012), and time from presentation to surgery (P = 0.039). Patients who were able to ambulate 5 feet within 72 hours had 9 times the odds of being independent ambulators rather than a lower ambulatory class (cane, walker, and nonambulatory). Pertrochanteric fractures were less likely than femoral neck fractures to independently ambulate at 3 months (17.2% vs. 42.3%; P = 0.0006).

DISCUSSION

Ambulating 5 feet within 72 hours after hip fracture surgery is associated with an increased likelihood of independent ambulation at 3 months postoperatively. This simple and clear goal may be used to help enhance postoperative mobility and independence while providing a metric to guide therapy and help counsel patients and families.

Current Trends in Comorbidity Prevalence and Associated Mortality in a Population-Based Cohort of Hip Fracture Patients in Denmark

Background and Purpose

Patients with hip fractures often have comorbidities, but detailed data on comorbidity and its impact on prognosis are lacking. We described the current trends in the prevalence of comorbidity and the magnitude of the associated mortality.

Patients and Methods

From the Danish Multidisciplinary Hip Fracture Registry we included 31,443 hip fracture patients (diagnosed in 2014-2018). We calculated the prevalence of individual diseases and comorbidity measured with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the Elixhauser Index, and the Rx-Risk Index. We calculated sex and age-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for 30-day mortality and hazard ratios (aHRS) for one-year mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

The most common diseases identified with the CCI were cerebrovascular diseases (18%), malignancies (17%), chronic pulmonary disease (14%), and dementia (11%). Using the Elixhauser Index, hypertension (37%), cardiac arrhythmias (21%), and fluid and electrolyte disorders (15%) were most prevalent, while ischemic heart disease (42%), hypertension (39%), and use of antiplatelets (37%) were most prevalent when using the Rx-Risk Index. Using the Rx-Risk Index, only 28% of patients had no comorbidity compared to 38% for CCI and 44% for the Elixhauser Index, and the prevalence was stable through the years. Compared to patients with no comorbidity, patients with very severe comorbidity had an aORs for 30-day mortality of 2.6 (CI: 2.4-2.9) using CCI, 2.6 (CI: 2.4-3.1) using the Elixhauser Index, and 3.1 (CI: 2.7-3.4) using the Rx-Risk Index.

Interpretation

More than 50% of the patients with hip fractures have moderate to very severe comorbidity, with considerable variation between indices. The prevalence of individual diseases varies considerably. All indices had comparable dose-response associations with mortality. These results are relevant for clinicians to amend prevention and target care, and for researchers to decide which comorbidity measure to use depending on the research question.

Prediction of long-term mortality following hip fracture surgery: evaluation of three risk models

INTRODUCTION

Several prognostic models have been developed for mortality in hip fracture patients, but their accuracy for long-term prediction is unclear. This study evaluates the performance of three models assessing 30-day, 1-year and 8-year mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the model developed by Holt et al. and the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients admitted with a fractured hip between January 2012 and June 2013 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Relevant variables used by the three models were collected, as were mortality data. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by determining risk groups for each model, comparing differences in mortality using Kaplan-Meier curves, and by assessing positive and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

A total of 344 patients were included for analysis. Observed mortality rates were 6.1% after 30 days, 19.1% after 1 year and 68.6% after 8 years. The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. demonstrated good to excellent discrimination and adequate calibration for both short- and long-term mortality prediction, with similar clinical usefulness measures. The HEMA demonstrated inferior prediction of 30-day and 8-year mortality, with worse discriminative abilities and a significant lack of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. allowed for accurate identification of low- and high-risk patients for both short- and long-term mortality after a fracture of the hip. The HEMA performed poorly. When considering predictive performance and ease of use, the NHFS seems most suitable for implementation in daily clinical practice.

1 year mortality after hip fracture in an Irish urban trauma centre

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture accounts for a considerable burden of disease in older adults, yet there is a paucity of data pertaining to longer-term outcomes in the Irish Hip Fracture population. Understanding the factors that influence longer-term survival would allow care pathways to be refined to optimise patient outcomes. In Ireland, there is no linkage to death registration at a national or regional level, nor are longer-term outcomes captured by the Irish Hip Fracture Database. This study aimed to quantify 1-year mortality in an Irish hip fracture cohort and identify factors that influence survival at 1 year.

METHODS

A retrospective review of hip fracture cases in an Irish urban trauma centre over a 5-year period was conducted. Mortality status was obtained via the Inpatient Management System and correlated with the Irish Death Events Register. A range of routinely collected patient and care process variables were analysed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 833 patients were included. Within 1 year of sustaining a hip fracture, 20.5% (171/833) had died. On multivariate analysis, female gender (OR 0.36, p < 0.001, 95% CI 0.23-0.57), independent mobility pre-fracture (OR 0.24, p < 0.001, 95% CI 0.14-0.41) and early mobilisation on the day of or after surgery (OR 0.48, p < 0.001, 95% CI 0.30-0.77) reduced the likelihood of dying within 1 year (AUC 0.78).

CONCLUSION

Of the variables examined, early postoperative mobilisation was the only modifiable factor identified that conferred a longer-term survival benefit. This underscores the importance of adhering to international best practice standards for early postoperative mobilisation.

Use of the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS) to Predict Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Hip Fracture in Japan: A Cohort Study Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

Hip fractures are common in patients of advanced age and are associated with excess mortality. Rapid and accurate prediction of the prognosis using information that can be easily obtained before surgery would be advantageous to clinical management. We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study using an 8.5-year Japanese claims database (April 2012-September 2020) to develop and validate a predictive model for long-term mortality after hip fracture. The study included 43,529 patients (34,499 [79.3%] women) aged ≥65 years with first-onset hip fracture. During the observation period, 43% of the patients died. Cox regression analysis identified the following prognostic predictors: sex, age, fracture site, nursing care certification, and several comorbidities (any malignancy, renal disease, congestive heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, metastatic solid tumor, and deficiency anemia). We then developed a scoring system called the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS); this system was established by scoring based on each hazard ratio and classifying the degree of mortality risk into four categories based on decision tree analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality based on the SHiPS was 0.718 (95% CI, 0.706-0.729), 0.736 (95% CI, 0.728-0.745), and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.747-0.769), respectively, indicating good predictive performance of the SHiPS for as long as 5 years after fracture onset. Even when the SHiPS was individually applied to patients with or without surgery after fracture, the prediction performance by the AUC was >0.7. These results indicate that the SHiPS can predict long-term mortality using preoperative information regardless of whether surgery is performed after hip fracture.

Impact of oral anticoagulation on inhospital mortality of patients with hip fracture - Analysis of nationwide hospitalization data

OBJECTIVES

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) may have an impact on mortality in cases hospitalized for hip fracture (HF). We studied nationwide time trends of OAC prescriptions and compared time trends of inhospital mortality of HF cases with and without OAC in Germany DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Nationwide German hospitalization, Diagnosis-Related Groups Statistic PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: All hospital admissions for HF 60 years and older in the years 2006 through 2020.

INTERVENTION

Additional diagnosis with a personal history of long-term use of anticoagulants (ICD code Z92.1).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Inhospital mortality RESULTS: Cases hospitalized for HF 60 years and older increased by 29.5%. In 2006, 5.6% had a documented history of long-term use of OACs. This proportion rose to 20.1% in 2020. Age-standardized hospitalization mortality in HF cases without long-term use of OACs in males decreased steadily from 8.6% (95% confidence intervals 8.2 - 8.9) in 2006 to 6.6% (6.3 - 6.9) in 2020 and in females from 5.2% (5.0 - 5.3) to 3.9% (3.7 - 4.0). Mortality of HF cases with long-term use of OACs remained unchanged: males 7.0% (5.7 - 8.2) in 2006 and 7.3% (6.7 - 7.8) in 2020, females 4.8% (4.1 - 5.4) and 5.0% (4.7 - 5.3).

CONCLUSION

Inhospital mortality of HF cases with and without long-term OAC show different trends. In HF cases without OAC, mortality decreased from 2006 to 2020. In cases with OAC such a decrease could not be observed.

Treatment of Trochanteric Hip Fractures with Cephalomedullary Nails: Single Head Screw vs. Dual Integrated Compression Screw Systems

Extracapsular hip fractures are very common in the elderly. They are mainly treated surgically with an intramedullary nail. Nowadays, both endomedullary hip nails with single cephalic screw systems and interlocking double screw systems are available on the market. The latter are supposed to increase rotational stability and therefore decrease the risk of collapse and cut-out. A retrospective cohort study was carried out, in which 387 patients with extracapsular hip fracture undergoing internal fixation with an intramedullary nail were included to study the occurrence of complications and reoperations. Of the 387 patients, 69% received a single head screw nail and 31% received a dual integrated compression screw nail. The median follow-up was 1.1 years, and in that time, a total of 17 reoperations were performed (4.2%; 2.1% for single head screw nails vs. 8.7% for double head screws). According to the multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex and basicervical fracture, the adjusted hazard risk of reoperation required was 3.6 times greater when using double interlocking screw systems (p = 0.017). A propensity scores analysis confirmed this finding. In conclusion, despite the potential benefits of using two interlocking head screw systems and the increased risk of reoperation in our single center, we encourage to other researchers to explore this question in a wider multicenter study.

The prediction of early mortality following hip fracture surgery in patients aged 90 years and older: the Almelo Hip Fracture Score 90 (AHFS90)

The AHFS90 was developed for the prediction of early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 has a good accuracy and in most risk categories a good calibration. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.

PURPOSE

Identifying hip fracture patients with a high risk of early mortality after surgery could help make treatment decisions and information about the prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a risk score for predicting early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery (AHFS90).

METHODS

Patients ≥ 90 years, surgically treated for a hip fracture, were included. A selection of possible predictors for mortality was made. Missing data were subjected to multiple imputations using chained equations. Logistic regression was performed to develop the AHFS90, which was internally and externally validated. Calibration was assessed using a calibration plot and comparing observed and predicted risks.

RESULTS

One hundred and two of the 922 patients (11.1%) died ≤ 30 days following hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 includes age, gender, dementia, living in a nursing home, ASA score, and hemoglobin level as predictors for early mortality. The AHFS90 had good accuracy (area under the curve 0.72 for geographic cross validation). Predicted risks correspond with observed risks of early mortality in four risk categories. In two risk categories, the AHFS90 overestimates the risk. In one risk category, no mortality was observed; therefore, no analysis was possible. The AHFS90 had a maximal prediction of early mortality of 64.5% in this study population.

CONCLUSION

The AHFS90 accurately predicts early mortality after hip fracture surgery in patients ≥ 90 years of age. Predicted risks correspond to observed risks in most risk categories. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.

Is There a "Black Friday" for Geriatric Hip Fracture Surgery?

OBJECTIVES

Reports show an increase in the short-term mortality rates of hip fracture patients admitted on weekends. However, there are few studies on whether there is a similar effect in Friday admissions of geriatric hip fracture patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of Friday admission on mortality and clinical outcomes in elderly patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed at a single orthopaedic trauma centre and included all patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between January 2018 and December 2021. Patient characteristics, including age, sex, BMI, fracture type, time of admission, ASA grade, comorbidities, and laboratory examinations, were collected. Data pertaining to surgery and hospitalization were extracted from the electronic medical record system and tabulated. The corresponding follow-up was performed. The Shapiro-Wilk test was applied to evaluate the distributions of all continuous variables for normality. The overall data were analyzed by Student's t test or the Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables and the chi-square test for categorical variables, as appropriate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to further test for the independent influencing factors of prolonged time to surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 596 patients were included, and 83 patients (13.9%) were admitted on Friday. There was no evidence supporting that Friday admission had an effect on mortality and outcomes, including length of stay, total hospital costs and postoperative complications. However, the patients admitted on Friday had delayed surgery. Then, patients were regrouped into two groups according to whether surgery was delayed, and 317 patients (53.2%) underwent delayed surgery. The multivariate analysis showed that younger age (p = 0.014), Friday admission (p < 0.001), ASA classification III-IV (p = 0.019), femoral neck fracture (p = 0.002), time from injury to admission more than 24 h (p = 0.025), and diabetes (p = 0.023) were risk factors for delayed surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality and adverse outcome rates for elderly hip fracture patients admitted on Friday were similar to those admitted at other time periods. However, Friday admission was identified as one of the risk factors for delayed surgery.

Biomarkers as predictors of inpatient mortality in fractured neck of femur patients

INTRODUCTION

Hip fractures are common and it is estimated to cost the National Health Service (NHS) around £2 billion/year. The majority of these patients are elderly and they require careful perioperative management as morbidity and mortality are high. This study aims to look at routinely gathered biomarker data and baseline demographics to evaluate if they may be used to predict inpatient mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included 2158 patients from a single Centre over a 5-year period.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

age>60, confirmed fractured neck of femur on radiological imaging.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

pathological fractures, patients treated non-operatively, missing data. Univariate followed by multivariate analysis was conducted to identify the independent predictors of inpatient mortality.

RESULTS

The variables found to be independent predictors of inpatient mortality were: age > 85, sex (male), albumin < 35, lymphocytes < 1, American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) grade > 3. For the final derived multivariate logistic regression model, a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to assess the ability of the included variables to predict inpatient mortality. The area under the curve was 0.794 which together with sensitivity of 63.2% and a specificity of 79.1% at a cut value of 0.1.

CONCLUSION

This paper supports research previously conducted in this field, showing the prognostic value of both biomarker (albumin and lymphocytes), and non-biomarker data (ASA grade, age and gender) in predicting mortality in patients who have sustained a hip fracture.

Development of machine-learning algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in the elderly with femoral neck fractures based on the HEALTH and FAITH trials

To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making.

Association of depressive disorders and dementia with mortality among older people with hip fracture

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture (HF) is a significant cause of mortality among older people. Almost half of the patients with HF have dementia, which increases the mortality risk further. Cognitive impairment is associated with depressive disorders (DDs) and both dementia and DDs are independent risk factors for poor outcome after HF. However, most studies that evaluate mortality risk after HF separate these conditions.

AIMS

To investigate whether dementia with depressive disorders (DDwD) affects the mortality risk at 12, 24, and 36 months after HF among older people.

METHODS

Patients with acute HF (n = 404) were included in this retrospective analysis of two randomized controlled trials performed in orthopedic and geriatric departments. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale and cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination. A consultant geriatrician made final depressive disorder and dementia diagnoses using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria, with support from assessments and medical records. The 12-, 24- and 36-month mortality after HF was analyzed using logistic regression models adjusted for covariates.

RESULTS

In analyses adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, pre-fracture walking ability, and fracture type, patients with DDwD had increased mortality risks at 12 [odds ratio (OR) 4.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-12.51], 24 (OR 3.61, 95% CI 1.71-7.60), and 36 (OR 4.53, 95% CI 2.24-9.14) months. Similar results were obtained for patients with dementia, but not depressive disorders, alone.

CONCLUSION

DDwD is an important risk factor for increased mortality at 12, 24, and 36 months after HF among older people. Routinely assessments after HF for cognitive- and depressive disorders could identify patients at risk for increased mortality, and enable early interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

RCT2: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register, trial registration number: ISRCTN15738119.

The Geriatrics at Risk Score (GeRi-Score) for mortality prediction in geriatric patients with proximal femur fracture - a development and validation study from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma (ATR-DGU)

This study developed an easy-to-use mortality prediction tool, which showed an acceptable discrimination and no significant lack of fit. The GeRi-Score was able to predict mortality and could distinguish between mild, moderate and high risk groups. Therefore, the GeRi-Score might have the potential to distribute the intensity of medical care.

PURPOSE

Several mortality-predicting tools for hip fracture patients are available, but all consist of a high number of variables, require a time-consuming evaluation and/or are difficult to calculate. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use score, which depends mostly on routine data.

METHODS

Patients from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma were divided into a development and a validation group. Logistic regression models were used to build a model for in-house mortality and to obtain a score. Candidate models were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC) and likelihood ratio tests. The quality of the model was tested using the area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

38,570 patients were included, almost equal distributed to the development and to the validation dataset. The AUC was 0.727 (95% CI 0.711 - 0.742) for the final model, AIC resulted in a significant reduction in deviance compared to the basic model, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant lack of fit (p = 0.07). The GeRi-Score predicted an in-house mortality of 5.3% vs. 5.3% observed mortality in the development dataset and 5.4% vs. 5.7% in the validation dataset. The GeRi-Score was able to distinguish between mild, moderate and high risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The GeRi-Score is an easy-to-use mortality-predicting tool with an acceptable discrimination and no significant lack of fit. The GeRi-Score might have the potential to distribute the intensity of perioperative medical care in hip fracture surgery and can be used in quality management programs as benchmark tool.

Intercontinental validation of a clinical prediction model for predicting 90-day and 2-year mortality in an Israeli cohort of 2033 patients with a femoral neck fracture aged 65 or above

PURPOSE

Mortality prediction in elderly femoral neck fracture patients is valuable in treatment decision-making. A previously developed and internally validated clinical prediction model shows promise in identifying patients at risk of 90-day and 2-year mortality. Validation in an independent cohort is required to assess the generalizability; especially in geographically distinct regions. Therefore we questioned, is the SORG Orthopaedic Research Group (SORG) femoral neck fracture mortality algorithm externally valid in an Israeli cohort to predict 90-day and 2-year mortality?

METHODS

We previously developed a prediction model in 2022 for estimating the risk of mortality in femoral neck fracture patients using a multicenter institutional cohort of 2,478 patients from the USA. The model included the following input variables that are available on clinical admission: age, male gender, creatinine level, absolute neutrophil, hemoglobin level, international normalized ratio (INR), congestive heart failure (CHF), displaced fracture, hemiplegia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), history of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and beta-blocker use. To assess the generalizability, we used an intercontinental institutional cohort from the Sheba Medical Center in Israel (level I trauma center), queried between June 2008 and February 2022. Generalizability of the model was assessed using discrimination, calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The validation cohort included 2,033 patients, aged 65 years or above, that underwent femoral neck fracture surgery. Most patients were female 64.8% (n = 1317), the median age was 81 years (interquartile range = 75-86), and 80.4% (n = 1635) patients sustained a displaced fracture (Garden III/IV). The 90-day mortality was 9.4% (n = 190) and 2-year mortality was 30.0% (n = 610). Despite numerous baseline differences, the model performed acceptably to the validation cohort on discrimination (c-statistic 0.67 for 90-day, 0.67 for 2-year), calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The previously developed SORG femoral neck fracture mortality algorithm demonstrated good performance in an independent intercontinental population. Current iteration should not be relied on for patient care, though suggesting potential utility in assessing patients at low risk for 90-day or 2-year mortality. Further studies should evaluate this tool in a prospective setting and evaluate its feasibility and efficacy in clinical practice. The algorithm can be freely accessed: https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/hipfracturemortality/ .

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, Prognostic study.

Missing the first post-operative visit is an independent risk factor for 90-day complication and re-admission following hip fracture surgery

Introduction

Knowing the risk factors for poor outcomes following hip fracture surgery is necessary for appropriate patient care. The objective of this study was to determine if the first post-operative visit (POV) following hip fracture surgery is a risk factor for increased mortality, complications, and re-admissions.

Methods

This was a retrospective review of 285 patients who underwent operative fixation of a hip fracture at an academic acute care hospital. Outcome measurements were 90-day and one year mortality, 90-day complications, and 90-day re-admission rates in patients who missed or attended their first post-operative visit following hip fracture surgery.

Results

279 patients met inclusion criteria and had sufficient data for analysis, of which 213 (76.3%) made their first post-operative visit. 90-day and one-year mortality were significantly higher in the patients who missed their first POV (31.8% vs. 4.2%; 51.5% vs. 12.7%). Independent risk factors for 90-day complications were missing the first POV, coronary artery disease, and lower pre-injury status (ORs = 10.65, 2.80, 7.89, respectively). Independent risk factors for 90-day re-admission were missing the first POV, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on home oxygen, and lower re-injury status (ORs = 8.04, 5.44, 5.47, respectively).

Conclusion

Missing the first POV was the strongest independent risk factor for 90-day complications and 90-day readmission. Patients who miss their first POV have significantly higher 90-day and one year mortality rates.

A Tool to Estimate Risk of 30-day Mortality and Complications After Hip Fracture Surgery: Accurate Enough for Some but Not All Purposes? A Study From the ACS-NSQIP Database

BACKGROUND

Surgical repair of hip fracture carries substantial short-term risks of mortality and complications. The risk-reward calculus for most patients with hip fractures favors surgical repair. However, some patients have low prefracture functioning, frailty, and/or very high risk of postoperative mortality, making the choice between surgical and nonsurgical management more difficult. The importance of high-quality informed consent and shared decision-making for frail patients with hip fracture has recently been demonstrated. A tool to accurately estimate patient-specific risks of surgery could improve these processes.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

With this study, we sought (1) to develop, validate, and estimate the overall accuracy (C-index) of risk prediction models for 30-day mortality and complications after hip fracture surgery; (2) to evaluate the accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and false discovery rates) of risk prediction thresholds for identifying very high-risk patients; and (3) to implement the models in an accessible web calculator.

METHODS

In this comparative study, preoperative demographics, comorbidities, and preoperatively known operative variables were extracted for all 82,168 patients aged 18 years and older undergoing surgery for hip fracture in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) between 2011 and 2017. Eighty-two percent (66,994 of 82,168 ) of patients were at least 70 years old, 21% (17,007 of 82,168 ) were at least 90 years old, 70% (57,260 of 82,168 ) were female, and 79% (65,301 of 82,168 ) were White. A total of 5% (4260 of 82,168) of patients died within 30 days of surgery, and 8% (6786 of 82,168) experienced a major complication. The ACS-NSQIP database was chosen for its clinically abstracted and reliable data from more than 600 hospitals on important surgical outcomes, as well as rich characterization of preoperative demographic and clinical predictors for demographically diverse patients. Using all the preoperative variables in the ACS-NSQIP dataset, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, a type of machine learning that selects variables to optimize accuracy and parsimony, was used to develop and validate models to predict two primary outcomes: 30-day postoperative mortality and any 30-day major complications. Major complications were defined by the occurrence of ACS-NSQIP complications including: on a ventilator longer than 48 hours, intraoperative or postoperative unplanned intubation, septic shock, deep incisional surgical site infection (SSI), organ/space SSI, wound disruption, sepsis, intraoperative or postoperative myocardial infarction, intraoperative or postoperative cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation, acute renal failure needing dialysis, pulmonary embolism, stroke/cerebral vascular accident, and return to the operating room. Secondary outcomes were six clusters of complications recently developed and increasingly used for the development of surgical risk models, namely: (1) pulmonary complications, (2) infectious complications, (3) cardiac events, (4) renal complications, (5) venous thromboembolic events, and (6) neurological events. Tenfold cross-validation was used to assess overall model accuracy with C-indexes, a measure of how well models discriminate patients who experience an outcome from those who do not. Using the models, the predicted risk of outcomes for each patient were used to estimate the accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and false discovery rates) of a wide range of predicted risk thresholds. We then implemented the prediction models into a web-accessible risk calculator.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality and major complication models had good to fair discrimination (C-indexes of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively) and good calibration throughout the range of predicted risk. Thresholds of predicted risk to identify patients at very high risk of 30-day mortality had high specificity but also high false discovery rates. For example, a 30-day mortality predicted risk threshold of 15% resulted in 97% specificity, meaning 97% of patients who lived longer than 30 days were below that risk threshold. However, this threshold had a false discovery rate of 78%, meaning 78% of patients above that threshold survived longer than 30 days and might have benefitted from surgery. The tool is available here: https://s-spire-clintools.shinyapps.io/hip_deploy/ .

CONCLUSION

The models of mortality and complications we developed may be accurate enough for some uses, especially personalizing informed consent and shared decision-making with patient-specific risk estimates. However, the high false discovery rate suggests the models should not be used to restrict access to surgery for high-risk patients. Deciding which measures of accuracy to prioritize and what is "accurate enough" depends on the clinical question and use of the predictions. Discrimination and calibration are commonly used measures of overall model accuracy but may be poorly suited to certain clinical questions and applications. Clinically, overall accuracy may not be as important as knowing how accurate and useful specific values of predicted risk are for specific purposes.Level of Evidence Level III, therapeutic study.

Delphi-Based Consensus to Determine Core Aspects of Post-Hip-Fracture Surgery Rehabilitation Based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health

A hip fracture is a major adverse event for older individuals that has extremely high rates of mortality and morbidity, specifically functional decline. Thus, effective post-hip fracture rehabilitation is crucial to enable patients to regain function and improve their quality of life. Most post-hip fracture rehabilitation programs focus only on physical functioning, but rehabilitation goals related to the quality of life, social participation, and environmental issues are also crucial considerations. This study aimed to develop a core set of considerations based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) for use as a reference in designing comprehensive rehabilitation programs for patients with hip fractures. For this purpose, we recruited 20 experts from related fields working at a university hospital to complete a three-round Delphi-based questionnaire. Before beginning this process, a literature review related to ICF category selection was conducted. Next, a 5-point Likert scale was employed to rate the importance of each proposed category, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and semi-interquartile range indices were analyzed to rate the consensus status. Categories for the ICF core set of considerations for post-hip-fracture rehabilitation were chosen on the basis of a high level of consensus and a mean score of ≥4.5 in the third Delphi-based questionnaire round. After selection, the ICF core set comprised 34 categories, namely 15 for bodily functions, 5 for bodily structures, 13 for activities and participation, and 1 for environmental factors. The proposed post-hip-fracture rehabilitation ICF core set can serve as a reference for developing effective rehabilitation strategies and goal setting by interdisciplinary teams. However, further feasibility evaluation is recommended for individualized rehabilitation program design.

The Influence of a Modified 3rd Generation Cementation Technique and Vaccum Mixing of Bone Cement on the Bone Cement Implantation Syndrome (BCIS) in Geriatric Patients with Cemented Hemiarthroplasty for Femoral Neck Fractures

Background and Objectives: Cemented hemi arthroplasty is a common and effective procedure performed to treat femoral neck fractures in elderly patients. The bone cement implantation syndrome (BCIS) is a severe and potentially fatal complication which can be associated with the implantation of a hip prosthesis. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of a modified cementing technique on the incidence of BCIS. Material and Methods: The clinical data of patients which were treated with a cemented hip arthroplasty after the introduction of the modified 3rd generation cementing technique were compared with a matched group of patients who were treated with a 2nd generation cementing technique. The anesthesia charts for all patients were reviewed for the relevant parameters before, during and after cementation. Each patient was classified as having no BCIS (grade 0) or BCIS grade 1,2, or 3 depending on the severity of hypotension, hypoxia loss of consciousness. Results: A total of 92 patients with complete data sets could be included in the study. The mean age was 83 years. 43 patients (Group A) were treated with a 2nd and 49 patients (Group B) with a 3rd generation cementing technique. The incidence of BCIS grade 1,2, and 3 was significantly higher (p = 0,036) in group A (n = 25; 58%) compared to group B (n = 17; 35%). Early mortality was higher in group A (n = 4) compared to group B (n = 0). Conclusions: BCIS is a potentially severe complication with a significant impact on early mortality following cemented hemiarthroplasty of the hip for the treatment of proximal femur fracture. Using a modified 3rd generation cementing technique, it is possible to significantly reduce the incidence of BCIS and its associated mortality.

Mortality Prediction in Hip Fracture Patients: Physician Assessment Versus Prognostic Models

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate 2 prognostic models for mortality after a fracture of the hip, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam and to compare their predictive performance to physician assessment of mortality risk in hip fracture patients.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Two level-2 trauma centers located in the Netherlands.

PATIENTS

Two hundred forty-four patients admitted to the Emergency Departments of both hospitals with a fractured hip.

INTERVENTION

Data used in both prediction models were collected at the time of admission for each individual patient, as well as predictions of mortality by treating physicians.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive performances were evaluated for 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality. Discrimination was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC); calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; clinical usefulness in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

Mortality was 7.4% after 30 days, 22.1% after 1 year, and 59.4% after 5 years. There were no statistically significant differences in discrimination between the prediction methods (AUC 0.73-0.80). The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score demonstrated underfitting for 30-day mortality and failed to identify the majority of high-risk patients (sensitivity 33%). The Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam showed systematic overestimation and overfitting. Physicians were able to identify most high-risk patients for 30-day mortality (sensitivity 78%) but with some overestimation. Both risk models demonstrated a lack of fit when used for 1-year and 5-year mortality predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, prognostic models and physicians demonstrated similar discriminating abilities when predicting mortality in hip fracture patients. Although physicians overestimated mortality, they were better at identifying high-risk patients and at predicting long-term mortality.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

A Prospective Study Correlating Preoperative Modified Frailty Index With One-Year Mortality in the Elderly With Hip Fractures

Background Hip fractures occur frequently in the elderly population over the age of 60 years following low-energy domestic falls. The postoperative mortality after hip fracture surgery depends on numerous factors like comorbidities, pre-fall ambulatory status, nutritional status, cognition, and overall physical health. In this context, the physiological age and reserve play a vital role in mortality after hip fracture surgeries. This physiological reserve is measured in terms of "frailty." There are many frailty indices that assess the physiological reserves of an elderly patient. The modified frailty index (MFI) is one of the validated indexes predicting postoperative complications and mortality. So we concluded there is a need to assess the patients with MFI preoperatively, based on which mortality and postoperative complications could be predicted in our patients. Materials and methods We included 100 patients aged more than 60 years with intertrochanteric and neck of the femur fractures, who were managed surgically. We followed the patients for one year and observed the immediate and late complications and mortality at the end of one year. To reduce bias, patients with pathological fractures, revision surgeries, contralateral fractures, high-energy trauma, younger than 60 years of age, and previous proximal femur fracture surgery on the side of injury were excluded from the study. Results The primary objective was to study the correlation between the MFI with one-year mortality. We observe that the MFI score had a significant effect on mortality at one year (p-value = 0.0316). With a unit increase in the MFI score, the odds of death increase by a factor of 1.52. Conclusion There is a strong correlation between MFI with one-year mortality and postoperative complications after hip fracture surgeries in the elderly. This MFI can be used as a preoperative predictive model to predict the mortality and postoperative complications after hip fractures in the elderly. It will also help patients and their caretakers in decision-making and elucidating surgery choices.

Clinical outcomes of tranexamic acid in acute hip hemiarthroplasties in frail geriatric patients

BACKGROUND

Tranexamic acid (TXA) has shown to significantly reduce perioperative blood loss in elective orthopedic joint replacement surgery but is yet not implemented in acute hip fracture surgery for elderly patients who are particularly vulnerable to perioperative blood loss and postoperative anemia. Aim of this study is to answer the following questions: 1. Does TXA reduce bleeding associated complications in elderly patients? 2. Does TXA induce thromboembolic complications in elderly patients?

HYPOTHESIS

TXA reduces perioperative blood loss and associated complications in acute hip fracture surgery in geriatric patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this observational cohort study with prospectively enrolled patients over 65 years of age who received an acute hip hemiarthroplasty, the primary outcome was blood loss, also described as Δ hemoglobin. Secondary outcomes were bleeding associated complications as hematomas. Also, the occurrence of thromboembolic events and mortality were examined.

RESULTS

In total 864 geriatric patients were included of which 235 received TXA and 629 did not. Multivariable analysis showed reduced Δ hemoglobin loss [-0.24 (-0.39; -0.09), p=0.002] and hematomas (OR 0.44 (0.21; 0.91), p=0.026). Pulmonary embolism were diagnosed more frequently after administration of TXA (2% versus 0.3%, p=0.008), without an association with increased 30-day mortality rate (6% versus 8%, p=0.3).

DISCUSSION

TXA reduced perioperative blood loss and associated complications. However, adverse effects of TXA as pulmonary embolisms were found more frequently without effecting postoperative mortality rates. More research is needed to assess adverse effects of intravenous TXA and topical TXA as an alternative for systemic TXA to prevent systemic adverse effects.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III, Observational cohort study.

The impact of body mass index on mortality rates of hip fracture patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic as approximately one-third of the world's population. Findings on early and late mortality rates between obese, overweight, and underweight vs normal body mass index (BMI) patients confirm that the obese and overweight patients were found to have lower risk and underweight patients were found to have increased risk of mortality as compared to normal weighted patients. It is unclear if the "obesity paradox" exists with survival outcomes of hip fracture patients. We hereby reviewed early (in-hospital and 30-day mortality) and late mortality (≥ 1-year) rates between obese, overweight, and underweight vs normal body mass index (BMI) patients with hip fractures. PubMed, Embase, ScienceDirect, CENTRAL, and Google Scholar were searched for studies reporting mortality rates of hip fracture patients based on BMI. We pooled crude and adjusted mortality rates in a random-effects model. Eleven studies were included. Meta-analysis indicated significantly reduced risk of early (RR: 0.64 95% CI: 0.59, 0.69 I² = 0% p < 0.00001) and late mortality rates (RR: 0.78 95% CI: 0.67, 0.91 I² = 93% p = 0.002) in obese vs normal BMI patients. Meta-analysis failed to demonstrate any statistically significant difference in early mortality (RR: 0.90 95% CI: 0.54, 1.53 I² = 44% p = 0.71) but significantly reduced risk of late mortality in overweight vs normal BMI patients (RR: 0.85 95% CI: 0.73, 0.93 I² = 84% p = 0.003). Scarce data suggested increased risk of early (RR: 1.44 95% CI: 1.08, 1.93 I² = 26% p = 0.01) and late mortality (RR: 1.23 95% CI: 1.08, 1.41 I² = 7% p = 0.002) in underweight vs normal BMI patients. Adjusted data corroborated the reduced risk of mortality in overweight (HR: 0.78 95% CI: 0.74, 0.83 I² = 0% p < 0.0001) and obese patients (HR: 0.66 95% CI: 0.60, 0.73 I² = 0% p < 0.0001). Our results indicate that the "obesity paradox" exists with survival outcomes of hip fracture patients. Obese and overweight patients were found to have lower risk and underweight patients were found to have increased risk of mortality as compared to normal weighted patients.

Patient-specific factors affecting survival following hip fractures-a 14-year follow-up study in Finland

The mortality of elderly hip fracture patients is high. Eighty-five percent of all patients were followed until death. The three most protective factors for 1-year survival were ASA class; BMI; and age, and the four most protective factors for 14-year survival were age; BMI; ASA class; and subtrochanteric fracture type.

OBJECTIVE

Hip fractures are associated with increased mortality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the protective preoperative factors regarding the survival of short-term (1 year) and long-term (14 years) follow-up in a hip fracture cohort in Finland.

METHODS

A total of 486 patients, operated on in 2005 and 2006, were retrospectively evaluated. Survival was analyzed using Bayesian multivariate analysis and relative survival with the life table method. All patients were followed for a minimum of 14 years.

RESULTS

We analyzed 330 women and 156 men, whose mean ages were 82.4 and 72.0 years, respectively. The overall mortality rate was 7% at 1 month, 22% at 12 months, and 87% at 14 years. Protective factors against mortality at 1 year were ASA class (1-3), BMI ≥ 20 kg/m², age < 85 years, alcohol involvement, Alzheimer's disease, no comorbidities, certain operative methods, and female sex. Factors promoting survival at 14 years were age < 75 years, BMI ≥ 20 kg/m², ASA class (1-2), subtrochanteric fracture, certain operative methods, alcohol involvement, and no comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Protective factors for 1-year survival in order of importance were ASA class, BMI, and age, and, correspondingly, for 14-year survival, age, certain operative methods, BMI, and ASA class. The relative survival of hip fracture patients was lower than that of the general population.

Pre-operative resuscitation discussion with patients undergoing fractured neck of femur repair: a service evaluation and discussion of current standards

INTRODUCTION

The majority of neck of femur (NOF) fracture patients are frail and at a higher risk of cardiac arrest. This makes discussion of treatment escalation vital to informed care. The optimal time for these discussions is prior to admission or trauma. However, when this has not occurred, it is vital that these discussions happen early in the patient's admission when family is often present and before further deterioration in their condition. We undertook a service evaluation to evaluate and discuss the effect of clinician education on improving rates of timely discussion amongst orthopaedic doctors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The first cycle included 94 patients. Their notes were reviewed for presence of a ReSPECT (Recommend Summary Plan for Emergency Care and Treatment) form prior to operation and whether this it countersigned by a consultant. Following this, clinician education was undertaken and a re-audit was carried out involving 57 patients.

RESULTS

ReSPECT form completion rates rose from 23% in cycle 1-32% in cycle 2 following intervention. The proportion which consultants signed rose from 41% to 56% following intervention.

CONCLUSION

This project demonstrates how a basic education program can prove limited improvements in the rates of timely resuscitation discussions. We discuss a current lack in quality research into educational programs for discussion of treatment escalation for orthopaedic trainees. We suggest there is room to improve national best practice guidelines and training to ensure these discussions are carried out more frequently and to a better standard.

Prognosis and institutionalization of frail community-dwelling older patients following a proximal femoral fracture: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

Hip fractures are a serious public health issue with major consequences, especially for frail community dwellers. This study found a poor prognosis at 6 months post-trauma with regard to life expectancy and rehabilitation to pre-fracture independency levels. It should be realized that recovery to pre-trauma functioning is not a certainty for frail community-dwelling patients.

INTRODUCTION

Proximal femoral fractures are a serious public health issue in the older patient. Although a significant rise in frail community-dwelling elderly is expected because of progressive aging, a clear overview of the outcomes in these patients sustaining a proximal femoral fracture is lacking. This study assessed the prognosis of frail community-dwelling patients who sustained a proximal femoral fracture.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed on frail community-dwelling patients with a proximal femoral fracture who aged over 70 years. Patients were considered frail if they were classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ 4 and/or a BMI < 18.5 kg/m² and/or Functional Ambulation Category ≤ 2 pre-trauma. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary outcomes were adverse events, health care consumption, rate of institutionalization, and functional recovery.

RESULTS

A total of 140 out of 2045 patients matched the inclusion criteria with a median age of 85 (P₂₅-P₇₅ 80-89) years. The 6-month mortality was 58 out of 140 patients (41%). A total of 102 (73%) patients experienced adverse events. At 6 months post-trauma, 29 out of 120 (24%) were readmitted to the hospital. Out of the 82 surviving patients after 6 months, 41 (50%) were unable the return to their home, and only 32 (39%) were able to achieve outdoor ambulation.

CONCLUSION

Frail community-dwelling older patients with a proximal femoral fracture have a high risk of death, adverse events, and institutionalization and often do not reobtain their pre-trauma level of independence. Foremost, the results can be used for realistic expectation management.

Single vs Dual-site service reconfiguration during Covid-19 pandemic - A tertiary care centre experience in hip fractures and a Scoping review

Aims and objectives

The Covid-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented effect on surgical practice and healthcare delivery globally. We compared the impact of the care pathways which segregate Covid-19 Positive and Negative patients into two geographically separate sites, on hip fracture patients in our high-volume trauma center in 3 distinct eras - the pre-pandemic period, against the first Covid-19 wave with dual-site service design, as well as the subsequent surge with single-site service delivery. In addition, we sought to invoke similar experiences of centres worldwide through a scoping literature review on the current evidence on "Dual site" reconfigurations in response to Covid-19 pandemic.

Methods

We prospectively reviewed our hip fracture patients throughout the two peaks of the pandemic, with different service designs for each, and compared the outcomes with a historic service provision. Further, a comprehensive literature search was conducted using several databases for articles discussing Dual-site service redesign.

Results

In our in-house study, there was no statistically significant difference in mortality of hip fracture patients between the 3 periods, as well as their discharge destinations. With dual-site reconfiguration, patients took longer to reach theatre. However, there was much more nosocomial transmission with single-site service, and patients stayed in the hospital longer. 24 articles pertaining to the topic were selected for the scoping review. Most studies favour dual-site service reorganization, and reported beneficial outcomes from the detached care pathways.

Conclusion

It is safe to continue urgent as well as non-emergency surgery during the Covid-19 pandemic in a separate, geographically isolated site.