Adverse outcomes in older adults attending emergency departments: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the Identification of Seniors At Risk (ISAR) screening tool

Identification of seniors at risk (ISAR) score and potentially inappropriate prescribing: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) is usually associated with a higher risk of adverse health outcomes. It is therefore important to identify PIP in older adults. However, there are no clear prioritisation strategies to select patients requiring prescription reviews.

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess the association between the identification of seniors at risk (ISAR) score and the number of PIPs.

METHOD

A 12-month retrospective hospital-based study was conducted. PIPs, including potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) and potential prescribing omissions (PPOs), were detected using the STOPP/START tool. Multivariate linear regressions were conducted to identify factors associated with the number of PIPs. Sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, and ROC curve were calculated to determine the predictive power of ISAR score.

RESULTS

This study included 266 records. The analysis led to the detection of 420 PIMs and 210 PPOs, with a prevalence of 80.1% and 54.9%, respectively. Multivariate linear regression revealed that the ISAR score (p = 0.041), and the number of medications (p < 0.001) were determinants of PIP. The number of medications remained the sole determinant of the number of PIMs (p < 0.001), while living in a nursing home was the only determinant of the number of PPOs (p = 0.036).

CONCLUSION

The study showed that the ISAR score and the number of medications were independently associated with the number of PIPs. Considering the use of the ISAR score and the number of medications may be useful strategies to prioritise patients for whom prescribing appropriateness should be assessed using explicit criteria.

Exploring adaptive expertise in residency: the (missed) opportunity of uncertainty

Preparing novice physicians for an unknown clinical future in healthcare is challenging. This is especially true for emergency departments (EDs) where the framework of adaptive expertise has gained traction. When medical graduates start residency in the ED, they must be supported in becoming adaptive experts. However, little is known about how residents can be supported in developing this adaptive expertise. This was a cognitive ethnographic study conducted at two Danish EDs. The data comprised 80 h of observations of 27 residents treating 32 geriatric patients. The purpose of this cognitive ethnographic study was to describe contextual factors that mediate how residents engage in adaptive practices when treating geriatric patients in the ED. Results showed that all residents fluidly engaged in both adaptive and routine practices, but they were challenged when engaging in adaptive practices in the face of uncertainty. Uncertainty was often observed when residents' workflows were disrupted. Furthermore, results highlighted how residents construed professional identity and how this affected their ability to shift between routine and adaptive practices. Residents reported that they thought that they were expected to perform on par with their more experienced physician colleagues. This negatively impacted their ability to tolerate uncertainty and hindered the performance of adaptive practices. Thus, aligning clinical uncertainty with the premises of clinical work, is imperative for residents to develop adaptive expertise.

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in the Emergency Department: A Prospective Cohort Study of Process, Clinical, and Patient-Reported Outcomes

Background

This study aimed to explore the process, clinical, and patient-reported outcomes of older adults who received an interdisciplinary Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) in the emergency department (ED) over a six-month period after their initial ED attendance.

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort study recruited older adults aged ≥65 years who presented to the ED of a university teaching hospital in Ireland. Baseline assessment data comprising a battery of demographic variables and validated indices were obtained at the index ED attendance. Telephone interviews were completed with participants at 30- and 180-day follow-up. The primary outcome was incidence of hospital admission following the index ED attendance. Secondary outcomes included participant satisfaction, incidence of functional decline, health-related quality of life, incidence of unscheduled ED re-attendance(s), hospital (re)admission(s), nursing home admission, and death.

Results

A total of 133 participants (mean age 82.43 years, standard deviation = 6.89 years; 71.4% female) were recruited; 21.8% of the cohort were admitted to hospital following the index ED attendance with a significant decline in function reported at hospital discharge (Z = 2.97, p = 0.003). Incidence of 30- and 180-day unscheduled ED re-attendance was 10.5% and 24.8%, respectively. The outcome at the index ED attendance was a significant predictor of adverse outcomes whereby those who were discharged home had significantly lower odds of multiple adverse process outcomes at 30- and 180-day follow-up, and significantly higher function and health-related quality of life at 30-day follow-up.

Conclusion

While this study was observational in nature, findings suggest CGA in the ED may improve outcomes by mitigating against the adverse effects of potentially avoidable hospital admissions and focusing on a longitudinal approach to healthcare delivery at the primary-secondary care interface. Future research should be underpinned by an experimental study design to address key limitations in this study.

Hyponatremia and Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) Score in Geriatric Patients: An Analytical Cross-Sectional Study

Aim and objective Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte abnormality in hospitalized patients. Age is an important, strong independent factor for hyponatremia. Geriatric at-risk groups are identified with six straightforward dichotomous questions. The research aims to determine the incidence of hyponatremia and correlate the identification of seniors at risk (ISAR) score with electrolytes in elderly individuals.  Materials and methods The 334 geriatric population of elderly men and women were recruited based on age cut-off as more than 70 to 75, 76 to 80, and more than 80. Patients were categorized based on serum sodium levels as severe hyponatremia group A (< 125 mEq/L), moderate hyponatremia B (126 to 130 mEq/L), mild hyponatremia C (131 to 135 mEq/L) and normonatremia D (136 to 145 mEq/L). At the time of admission, the ISAR Tool was utilized to identify the participants with hyponatremia at risk. Electrolytes sodium, potassium, and chloride were analyzed in the Beckman Coulter AU480 autoanalyzer by indirect ISE method. The mean of the data was compared with ANOVA, and the ISAR risk score was correlated with electrolytes by Pearson correlation analysis; p < 0.5 is considered significant.  Results and discussion About 16.76 % (56 patients) had severe hyponatremia (Serum sodium 119.14± 4.14 mEq/L) with a high ISAR score (6.0) and were reported as critical alert results by the central laboratory. Based on age-wise category, 70 to 75 yrs had serum sodium levels of 133.82 mEq/L, 76 to 80 yrs had 128.4 mEq/L, and more than 80 years had serum hyponatremia 119.17 mEq/L. Geriatrics with normonatremia had a 1.22 ISAR score, whereas geriatrics with severe hyponatremia had a 6.0 ISAR score. Correlation analysis of the ISAR score revealed a statistically significant negative correlation with sodium (r = - 0.53), potassium (r = - 0.34), and chloride (r = - 0.30) levels. Likewise, the length of hospital stay of the geriatrics with severe hyponatremia was prolonged (19 days), which contributed to the deterioration of health status; thereby, better healthcare follow-up is encouraged.  Conclusion Hyponatremia is a critical alert analyte that is common in hospitalized geriatric patients. The ISAR score system points towards the individuals who are at risk and need immediate correction. Thereby, correction of sodium levels and close monitoring of the elderly patient enables quick recovery, and the consequences of hyponatremia are circumvented.

Dissipating the fog: Cognitive trajectories and risk factors 1 year after COVID-19 hospitalization

INTRODUCTION

Cognitive impairment is common after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, associations between post-hospital discharge risk factors and cognitive trajectories have not been explored.

METHODS

A total of 1105 adults (mean age ± SD 64.9 ± 9.9 years, 44% women, 63% White) with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were evaluated for cognitive function 1 year after hospital discharge. Scores from cognitive tests were harmonized, and clusters of cognitive impairment were defined using sequential analysis.

RESULTS

Three groups of cognitive trajectories were observed during the follow-up: no cognitive impairment, initial short-term cognitive impairment, and long-term cognitive impairment. Predictors of cognitive decline after COVID-19 were older age (β = -0.013, 95% CI = -0.023;-0.003), female sex (β = -0.230, 95% CI = -0.413;-0.047), previous dementia diagnosis or substantial memory complaints (β = -0.606, 95% CI = -0.877;-0.335), frailty before hospitalization (β = -0.191, 95% CI = -0.264;-0.119), higher platelet count (β = -0.101, 95% CI = -0.185;-0.018), and delirium (β = -0.483, 95% CI = -0.724;-0.244). Post-discharge predictors included hospital readmissions and frailty.

DISCUSSION

Cognitive impairment was common and the patterns of cognitive trajectories depended on sociodemographic, in-hospital, and post-hospitalization predictors.

HIGHLIGHTS

Cognitive impairment after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospital discharge was associated with higher age, less education, delirium during hospitalization, a higher number of hospitalizations post discharge, and frailty before and after hospitalization. Frequent cognitive evaluations for 12-month post-COVID-19 hospitalization showed three possible cognitive trajectories: no cognitive impairment, initial short-term impairment, and long-term impairment. This study highlights the importance of frequent cognitive testing to determine patterns of COVID-19 cognitive impairment, given the high frequency of incident cognitive impairment 1 year after hospitalization.

Predictors of frequent emergency department visits among hospitalized cancer patients: a comparative cohort study using integrated clinical and administrative data to improve care delivery

BACKGROUND

Frequent emergency department (FED) visits by cancer patients represent a significant burden to the health system. This study identified determinants of FED in recently hospitalized cancer patients, with a particular focus on opioid use.

METHODS

A prospective cohort discharged from surgical/medical units of the McGill University Health Centre was assembled. The outcome was FED use (≥ 4 ED visits) within one year of discharge. Data retrieved from the universal health insurance system was analyzed using Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model, adopting the Lunn-McNeil approach for competing risk of death.

RESULTS

Of 1253 patients, 14.5% became FED users. FED use was associated with chemotherapy one-year pre-admission (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.60, 95% CI: 1.80-3.70), ≥1 ED visit in the previous year (aHR: 1.80, 95% CI 1.20-2.80), ≥15 pre-admission ambulatory visits (aHR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.34), previous opioid and benzodiazepine use (aHR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.10-1.90 and aHR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.10-2.40), Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 3 (aHR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2-3.4), diabetes (aHR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.10-2.20), heart disease (aHR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.10-2.20) and lung cancer (aHR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.10-2.40). Surgery (cardiac (aHR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.16-0.66), gastrointestinal (aHR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.14-0.82) and thoracic (aHR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.30-0.67) led to a decreased risk of FED use.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer patients with higher co-morbidity, frequent use of the healthcare system, and opioid use were at increased risk of FED use. High-risk patients should be flagged for preventive intervention.

Identification of Seniors at Risk Score to Determine Geriatric Evaluations on Trauma Patients With Hip Fractures

BACKGROUND

Trauma centers are confronted with rising numbers of geriatric trauma patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. Geriatric screening is advocated but not standardized within trauma centers.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe the impact of Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening on patient outcomes and geriatric evaluations.

METHODS

This study used a pre-/postdesign to assess the impact of ISAR screening on patient outcomes and geriatric evaluations in trauma patients 60 years and older, comparing the periods before (2014-2016) and after (2017-2019) screening implementation.

RESULTS

Charts for 1,142 patients were reviewed. Comparing pre- to post-ISAR groups, the post-ISAR group with geriatric evaluations were older (M = 82.06, SD = 9.51 vs. M = 83.64, SD = 8.69; p = .026) with higher Injury Severity Scores (M = 9.22, SD = 0.69 vs. M = 9.38, SD = 0.92; p = .001). There was no significant difference in length of stay, intensive care unit length of stay, readmission rate, hospice consults, or inhospital mortality. Inhospital mortality (n = 8/380, 2.11% vs. n = 4/434, 0.92%) and length of stay in hours (M = 136.49, SD = 67.09 vs. M = 132.53, SD = 69.06) down-trended in the postgroup with geriatric evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Resources and care coordination efforts can be directed toward specific geriatric screening scores to achieve optimal outcomes. Varying results were found related to outcomes of geriatric evaluations prompting future research.

Inappropriate Combined Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Therapy in Older Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Trend over Time (2009-18)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Antiplatelet therapy, when prescribed in combination with anticoagulant therapy to older patients with atrial fibrillation and no recent cardiovascular event, is inappropriate and a reversible risk factor of major bleeding. We aimed to assess the trend over time of the prevalence of inappropriate combined antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy and to determine its associated factors during the direct oral anticoagulant era.

METHODS

This was a study of consecutive older patients (age ≥ 75 years) with atrial fibrillation, receiving anticoagulant therapy upon admission, and undergoing a comprehensive geriatric assessment during their first admission in a Belgian teaching hospital between 2009 and 2018. Antiplatelet therapy was considered inappropriate in the absence of a recent cardiovascular event. We studied the prevalence of inappropriate combined antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy by 2-year periods and assessed its associated factors since the year 2013.

RESULTS

Inappropriate combined antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy was identified in 21% of the 654 patients (median age 84 years, 51% women), with a prevalence decreasing (p ≤ 0.01) from 25% (2009-10) to 14.8% (2017-18). Among the 469 patients recruited during the direct oral anticoagulant era, inappropriate combined antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy (19%) was associated in a multivariable analysis with a history of stroke/transient ischemic attack (odds ratio 2.13, p = 0.007), anticoagulation with low-molecular-weight heparin (odds ratio 3.44, p = 0.015), and a history of vascular disease (odds ratio 5.68, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

While inappropriate combined antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy has declined over the last decade, there is still room for improvement. Antiplatelet deprescribing should be considered in all patients with inappropriate combined antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy, including those with vascular disease and no recent cardiovascular event.

Clinical value of Hospital Admission Risk Profile (HARP) and the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scales to predict hospital-associated functional decline in an acute geriatric unit in Colombia

Background

Older adults admitted to a hospital for acute illness are at higher risk of hospital-associated functional decline during stays and after discharge.

Objective

This study aimed to assess the calibration and discriminative abilities of the Hospital Admission Risk Profile (HARP) and the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scales as predictors of hospital-associated functional decline at discharge in a cohort of patients older than age 65 receiving management in an acute geriatric care unit in Colombia.

Methods

This study is an external validation of ISAR and HARP prediction models in a cohort of patients over 65 years managed in an acute geriatric care unit. The study included patients with Barthel index measured at admission and discharge. The evaluation discriminate ability and calibration, two fundamental aspects of the scales.

Results

Of 833 patients evaluated, 363 (43.6%) presented hospital-associated functional decline at discharge. The HARP underestimated the risk of hospital-associated functional decline for patients in low- and intermediate-risk categories (relation between observed/expected events (ROE) 1.82 and 1.51, respectively). The HARP overestimated the risk of hospital-associated functional decline for patients in the high-risk category (ROE 0.91). The ISAR underestimated the risk of hospital-associated functional decline for patients in low- and high-risk categories (ROE 1.59 and 1.11). Both scales showed poor discriminative ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) between 0.55 and 0.60.

Conclusions

This study found that HARP and ISAR scales have limited discriminative ability to predict HAFD at discharge. The HARP and ISAR scales should be used cautiously in the Colombian population since they underestimate the risk of hospital-associated functional decline and have low discriminative ability.

A methodological framework for evaluating transitions in acute care services in the Netherlands to achieve Triple Aim

Objective

The accessibility of acute care services is currently under pressure, and one way to improve services is better integration. Adequate methodology will be required to provide for a clear and accessible evaluation of the various intervention initiatives. The aim of this paper is to develop and propose a Population Health Management(PHM) methodology framework for evaluation of transitions in acute care services.

Results

Our methodological framework is developed from several concepts found in literature, including Triple Aim, integrated care and PHM, and includes continuous monitoring of results at both project and population levels. It is based on a broad view of health rather than focusing on a specific illness and facilitates the evaluation of various intervention initiatives in acute care services in the Netherlands and distinctly explains every step of the evaluation process and can be applied to a heterogeneous group of patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13104-022-06187-w.

The Predictive Value of the “Identification of Seniors at Risk” Score on Mortality, Length of Stay, Mobility and the Destination of Discharge of Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients

Purpose

The German Society for Geriatrics recommends the “ISAR” questionnaire as a screening tool for patients ≥70 for geriatric screening in emergency rooms. Although the ISAR-score is collected routinely in the “AltersTraumaRegister DGU^®” (ATR-DGU), to date less is known about the predictive value of the “ISAR”-score in geriatric trauma patients.

Patients and Methods

Currently, 84 clinics participate in the ATR-DGU. This evaluation is limited to the subgroup of proximal femur fractures from 2016–2018. Patients ≥70 years, who underwent surgery for a hip fracture are included in the ATR-DGU. In this evaluation, the influence of the “ISAR”-score on mortality, length of stay, mobility and the destination of discharge was examined.

Results

Overall 10,098 patients were included in the present study. The median age was 85 years (interquartile range (IQ) 80–89 years). According to the ISAR-score 80.6% (n=8142) of the patients were classified as geriatric patients (cut off “ISAR”-score ≥2 points). These group of patients had a length of stay of 16 days (IQ10.1–22.1) compared to the non-geriatric patient cohort showing a length of stay of 15 days (IQ10.1–20.1). Patients showing an ISAR-score ≥2 had an increased risk of being discharged to a nursing home (OR 8.25), not being able to walk (OR 12.52) and higher risk of mortality (OR 3.45).

Conclusion

The “ISAR”-score shows predictive power for the length of stay, mobility, hospital mortality and discharge after hospital in the collective of geriatric trauma patients. It therefore seems suitable as a screening tool for geriatric trauma patients in the emergency department and should be considered in this context.

Using the "Surprise Question" to Predict Frailty and Healthcare Outcomes among Older Adults Attending the Emergency Department

The “surprise question” (SQ) predicts the need for palliative care. Its predictive validity for adverse healthcare outcomes and its association with frailty among older people attending the emergency department (ED) are unknown. We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective study of consecutive patients aged ≥70 attending a university hospital’s ED. The SQ was scored by doctors before an independent comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Outcomes included length of stay (LOS), frailty determined by CGA and one-year mortality. The SQ was available for 191 patients, whose median age was 79 ± 9. In all, 56/191 (29%) screened SQ positive. SQ positive patients were frailer; the median clinical frailty score was 6/9 (compared to 4/9, p < 0.001); they had longer LOS (p = 0.008); and they had higher mortality (p < 0.001). Being SQ positive was associated with 2.6 times greater odds of admission and 8.9 times odds of frailty. After adjustment for age, sex, frailty, co-morbidity and presenting complaint, patients who were SQ positive had significantly reduced survival times (hazard ratio 5.6; 95% CI: 1.39–22.3, p = 0.015). Almost one-third of older patients attending ED were identified as SQ positive. These were frailer and more likely to be admitted, have reduced survival times and have prolonged LOS. The SQ is useful to quickly stratify older patients likely to experience poor outcomes in ED.

Predictors of short- and long-term mortality in critically ill, older adults admitted to the emergency department: an observational study

Background

In the future, we can expect an increase in older patients in emergency departments (ED) and acute wards. The main purpose of this study was to identify predictors of short- and long-term mortality in the ED and at hospital discharge.

Methods

This is a retrospective, observational, single-center, cohort study, involving critically ill older adults, recruited consecutively in an ED. The primary outcome was mortality. All patients were followed for 6.5–7.5 years. The Cox proportional hazards model was used.

Results

Regarding all critically ill patients aged ≥ 70 years and identified in the ED (n = 402), there was a significant association between mortality at 30 days after ED admission and unconsciousness on admission (HR 3.14, 95% CI 2.09–4.74), hypoxia on admission (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.69–3.74) and age (HR 1.06 per year, 95% CI 1.03–1.09), (all p < 0.001).

Of 402 critically ill patients aged ≥ 70 years and identified in the ED, 303 were discharged alive from hospital. There was a significant association between long-term mortality and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) > 2 (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.46–2.48), length of stay (LOS) > 7 days (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.32–2.23), discharge diagnosis of pneumonia (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24–2.21) and age (HR 1.08 per year, 95% CI 1.05–1.10), (all p < 0.001). The only symptom or vital sign associated with long-term mortality was hypoxia on admission (HR 1.70, 05% CI 1.30–2.22).

Conclusions

Among critically ill older adults admitted to an ED and discharged alive the following factors were predictive of long-term mortality: CCI > 2, LOS > 7 days, hypoxia on admission, discharge diagnosis of pneumonia and age. The following factors were predictive of mortality at 30 days after ED admission: unconsciousness on admission, hypoxia and age. These data might be clinically relevant when it comes to individualized care planning, which should take account of risk prediction and estimated prognosis.

The Diagnostic Accuracy and Clinimetric Properties of Screening Instruments to Identify Frail Older Adults Attending Emergency Departments: A Protocol for a Mixed Methods Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Prompt and efficient identification and stratification of patients who are frail is important, as this cohort are at high risk of adverse healthcare outcomes. Numerous frailty screening tools have been developed to support their identification across different settings, yet relatively few have emerged for use in emergency departments (EDs). This protocol provides details for a systematic review aiming to synthesize the accumulated evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy and clinimetric properties of frailty screening instruments to identify frail older adults in EDs. Methods: Six electronic databases will be searched from January 2000 to March 2021. Eligible studies will include adults aged ≥60 years screened in EDs with any available screening instrument to identify frailty (even if not originally designed for this purpose). Studies, including case-control, longitudinal, and cohort studies, will be included, where instruments are compared to a reference standard to explore diagnostic accuracy. Predictive accuracy for a selection of outcomes, including mortality, institutionalization, and readmission, will be assessed. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity will be examined, and a random effects meta-analysis performed if appropriate. Conclusion: Understanding whether frailty screening on presentation to EDs is accurate in identifying frailty, and predicting these outcomes is important for decision-making and targeting appropriate management.

Age-adjusted quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for predicting mortality and disease severity in children with infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the age-adjusted quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA) for predicting mortality and disease severity in pediatric patients with suspected or confirmed infection. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Eleven studies with a total of 172,569 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio of the age-adjusted qSOFA for predicting mortality and disease severity were 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53–0.81), 0.71 (95% CI 0.36–0.91), and 6.57 (95% CI 4.46–9.67), respectively. The area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.733. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for predicting mortality were 0.73 (95% CI 0.66–0.79) and 0.63 (95% CI 0.21–0.92), respectively. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for predicting disease severity were 0.73 (95% CI 0.21–0.97) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.11–0.98), respectively. The performance of the age-adjusted qSOFA for predicting mortality and disease severity was better in emergency department patients than in intensive care unit patients. The age-adjusted qSOFA has moderate predictive power and can help in rapidly identifying at-risk children, but its utility may be limited by its insufficient sensitivity.

Effectiveness of acute geriatric unit care on functional decline and process outcomes among older adults admitted to hospital with acute medical complaints: a protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Older adults are clinically heterogeneous and are at increased risk of adverse outcomes during hospitalisation due to the presence of multiple comorbid conditions and reduced homoeostatic reserves. Acute geriatric units (AGUs) are units designed with their own physical location and structure, which provide care to older adults during the acute phase of illness and are underpinned by an interdisciplinary comprehensive geriatric assessment model of care. This review aims to update and synthesise the totality of evidence related to the effectiveness of AGU care on clinical and process outcomes among older adults admitted to hospital with acute medical complaints.

DESIGN

Updated systematic review and meta-analysis METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MEDLINE, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library and Embase electronic databases will be systematically searched from 2008 to February 2021. Trials with a randomised design that deliver an AGU intervention to older adults admitted to hospital for acute medical complaints will be included. The primary outcome measure will be functional decline at discharge from hospital and at follow-up. Secondary outcomes will include length of stay, cost of index admission, incidence of unscheduled hospital readmission, living at home (the inverse of death or institutionalisation combined; used to describe someone who is in their own home at follow-up), mortality, cognitive function and patient satisfaction with index admission. Title and abstract screening of studies for full-text extraction will be conducted independently by two authors. The Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool will be used to assess the methodological quality of the included trials. The quality of evidence for outcomes reported will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluations framework. A pooled meta-analysis will be conducted using Review Manager, depending on the uniformity of the data.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval is not required as all data collected will be secondary data and will be analysed anonymously. The authors will present the findings of the review to a patient and public involvement stakeholder panel of older adults that has been established at the Ageing Research Centre in the University of Limerick. This will enable the views and opinions of older adults to be integrated into the discussion section of the paper.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021237633.

The impact of frailty Screening of Older adults with muLtidisciplinary assessment of those At Risk during emergency hospital attendance on the quality, safety and cost-effectiveness of care (SOLAR): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Older people account for 25% of all Emergency Department (ED) admissions. This is expected to rise with an ageing demographic. Older people often present to the ED with complex medical needs in the setting of multiple comorbidities. Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) has been shown to improve outcomes in an inpatient setting but clear evidence of benefit in the ED setting has not been established. It is not feasible to offer this resource-intensive assessment to all older adults in a timely fashion. Screening tools for frailty have been used to identify those at most risk for adverse outcomes following ED visit. The overall aim of this study is to examine the impact of CGA on the quality, safety and cost-effectiveness of care in an undifferentiated population of frail older people with medical complaints who present to the ED and Acute Medical Assessment Unit.

METHODS

This will be a parallel 1:1 allocation randomised control trial. All patients who are ≥ 75 years will be screened for frailty using the Identification of Seniors At Risk (ISAR) tool. Those with a score of ≥ 2 on the ISAR will be randomised. The treatment arm will undergo geriatric medicine team-led CGA in the ED or Acute Medical Assessment Unit whereas the non-treatment arm will undergo usual patient care. A dedicated multidisciplinary team of a specialist geriatric medicine doctor, senior physiotherapist, specialist nurse, pharmacist, senior occupational therapist and senior medical social worker will carry out the assessment, as well as interventions that arise from that assessment. Primary outcomes will be the length of stay in the ED or Acute Medical Assessment Unit. Secondary outcomes will include ED re-attendance, re-hospitalisation, functional decline, quality of life and mortality at 30 days and 180 days. These will be determined by telephone consultation and electronic records by a research nurse blinded to group allocation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the Health Service Executive (HSE) Mid-Western Regional Hospital Research Ethics Committee (088/2020). Our lay dissemination strategy will be developed in collaboration with our Patient and Public Involvement stakeholder panel of older people at the Ageing Research Centre and we will present our findings in peer-reviewed journals and national and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04629690 . Registered on November 16, 2020.

Impact of assessment and intervention by a health and social care professional team in the emergency department on the quality, safety, and clinical effectiveness of care for older adults: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Older adults frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and experience high rates of adverse events following ED presentation. This randomised controlled trial evaluated the impact of early assessment and intervention by a dedicated team of health and social care professionals (HSCPs) in the ED on the quality, safety, and clinical effectiveness of care of older adults in the ED.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This single-site randomised controlled trial included a sample of 353 patients aged ≥65 years (mean age = 79.6, SD = 7.01; 59.2% female) who presented with lower urgency complaints to the ED a university hospital in the Mid-West region of Ireland, during HSCP operational hours. The intervention consisted of early assessment and intervention carried out by a HSCP team comprising a senior medical social worker, senior occupational therapist, and senior physiotherapist. The primary outcome was ED length of stay. Secondary outcomes included rates of hospital admissions from the ED; hospital length of stay for admitted patients; patient satisfaction with index visit; ED revisits, mortality, nursing home admission, and unscheduled hospital admission at 30-day and 6-month follow-up; and patient functional status and quality of life (at index visit and follow-up). Demographic information included the patient's gender, age, marital status, residential status, mode of arrival to the ED, source of referral, index complaint, triage category, falls, and hospitalisation history. Participants in the intervention group (n = 176) experienced a significantly shorter ED stay than the control group (n = 177) (6.4 versus 12.1 median hours, p < 0.001). Other significant differences (intervention versus control) included lower rates of hospital admissions from the ED (19.3% versus 55.9%, p < 0.001), higher levels of satisfaction with the ED visit (p = 0.008), better function at 30-day (p = 0.01) and 6-month follow-up (p = 0.03), better mobility (p = 0.02 at 30 days), and better self-care (p = 0.03 at 30 days; p = 0.009 at 6 months). No differences at follow-up were observed in terms of ED re-presentation or hospital admission. Study limitations include the inability to blind patients or ED staff to allocation due to the nature of the intervention, and a focus on early assessment and intervention in the ED rather than care integration following discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Early assessment and intervention by a dedicated ED-based HSCP team reduced ED length of stay and the risk of hospital admissions among older adults, as well as improving patient satisfaction. Our findings support the effectiveness of an interdisciplinary model of care for key ED outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03739515; registered on 12 November 2018.

Effectiveness of interventions to reduce adverse outcomes among older adults following emergency department discharge: Protocol for an overview of systematic reviews

Background: Older adults are frequent users of Emergency departments (ED) and this trend will continue due to population ageing and the associated increase in healthcare needs. Older adults are vulnerable to adverse outcomes following ED discharge. A number of heterogeneous interventions have been developed and implemented to improve clinical outcomes among this cohort. A growing number of systematic reviews have synthesised evidence regarding ED interventions using varying methodologies. This overview aims to synthesise the totality of evidence in order to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to reduce adverse outcomes in older adults discharged from the ED. Methods: To identify relevant reviews, the following databases will be searched: Cochrane Database of Systematic reviews, Joanna Briggs Institute Database of Systematic Reviews and Implementation Reports, Databases of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, PubMed, MEDLINE, Epistemonikos, Ageline, Embase, PEDro, Scopus, CINAHL and the PROSPERO register. The search for grey literature will include Open Grey and Grey Literature Reports. Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials will be analysed to assess the effect of ED interventions on clinical and process outcomes in older adults. Methodological quality of the reviews will be assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 tool. The review will be reported in accordance to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Summary of findings will include a hierarchical rank of interventions based on estimates of effects and the quality of evidence. Discussion: This overview is required given the number of systematic reviews published regarding the effectiveness of various ED interventions for older adults at risk of adverse outcomes following discharge from the ED. There is a need to examine the totality of evidence using rigorous analytic techniques to inform best care and potentially develop a hierarchy of treatment options. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020145315 (28/04/2020).

Effectiveness of interventions to reduce adverse outcomes among older adults following emergency department discharge: Protocol for an overview of systematic reviews

Background: Older adults are frequent users of Emergency departments (ED) and this trend will continue due to population ageing and the associated increase in healthcare needs. Older adults are vulnerable to adverse outcomes following ED discharge. A number of heterogeneous interventions have been developed and implemented to improve clinical outcomes among this cohort. A growing number of systematic reviews have synthesised evidence regarding ED interventions using varying methodologies. This overview aims to synthesise the totality of evidence in order to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to reduce adverse outcomes in older adults discharged from the ED. Methods: To identify relevant reviews, the following databases will be searched: Cochrane Database of Systematic reviews, Joanna Briggs Institute Database of Systematic Reviews and Implementation Reports, Databases of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, PubMed, MEDLINE, Epistemonikos, Ageline, Embase, PEDro, Scopus, CINAHL and the PROSPERO register. The search for grey literature will include Open Grey and Grey Literature Reports. Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials will be analysed to assess the effect of ED interventions on clinical and process outcomes in older adults. Methodological quality of the reviews will be assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 tool. The review will be reported in accordance to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Summary of findings will include a hierarchical rank of interventions based on estimates of effects and the quality of evidence. Discussion: This overview is required given the number of systematic reviews published regarding the effectiveness of various ED interventions for older adults at risk of adverse outcomes following discharge from the ED. There is a need to examine the totality of evidence using rigorous analytic techniques to inform best care and potentially develop a hierarchy of treatment options. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020145315 (28/04/2020).

Potentially preventable hospitalizations-The 'pre-hospital syndrome': Retrospective observations from the MonashWatch self-reported health journey study in Victoria, Australia

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

HealthLinks: Chronic Care is a state-wide public hospital initiative designed to improve care for cohorts at-risk of potentially preventable hospitalizations at no extra cost. MonashWatch (MW) is an hospital outreach service designed to optimize admissions in an at-risk cohort. Telehealth operators make regular phone calls (≥weekly) using the Patient Journey Record System (PaJR). PaJR generates flags based on patient self-report, alerting to a risk of admission or emergency department attendance. 'Total flags' of global health represent concerns about self-reported general health, medication, and wellness. 'Red flags' represent significant disease/symptoms concerns, likely to lead to hospitalization.

METHODS

A time series analysis of PaJR phone calls to MW patients with ≥1 acute non-surgical admissions in a 20-day time window (10 days pre-admission and 10 days post-discharge) between 23 December 2016 and 11 October 2017. Pettitt's hypothesis-testing homogeneity measure was deployed to analyse Victorian Admitted Episode/Emergency Minimum Datasets and PaJR data.

FINDINGS

A MW cohort of 103 patients (mean age 74 ± 15 years; with 59% males) had 263 admissions was identified. Bed days ranged from <1 to 37.3 (mean 5.8 ± 5.8; median 4.1). The MW cohort had 7.6 calls on average in the 20-day pre- and post-hospital period. Most patients reported significantly increased flags 'pre-hospital' admission: medication issues increased on day 7.0 to 8.5; total flags day 3, worse general health days 2.5 to 1.8; and red flags of disease symptoms increased on day 1. These flags persisted following discharge.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

This study identified a 'pre-hospital syndrome' similar to a post-hospital phase aka the well-documented 'post-hospital syndrome'. There is evidence of a 10-day 'pre-hospital' window for interventions to possibly prevent or shorten an acute admission in this MW cohort. Further validation in a larger diverse sample is needed.

The barriers and facilitators to implementing screening in emergency departments: a qualitative evidence synthesis (QES) protocol exploring the experiences of healthcare workers

Background: Screening in the emergency department (ED) can identify individuals in need of targeted assessment and early intervention in the hospital or community setting. Time pressures, inadequate resources, poor integration of screening tools into clinical workflow and lack of staff training are barriers to successfully implementing screening in the ED. Tailored implementation processes and education programmes were identified as facilitators. The aim of this QES is to synthesise evidence pertaining to the barriers and facilitators to implementing screening in the ED. This review will focus on the experience of healthcare workers (HCWs) who are involved in this process. Methods: A comprehensive literature search will be completed in Scopus, CINAHL, Medline, Embase, Pubmed and Cochrane library. Grey literature sources will be searched and include Open Grey, Google Scholar, Lenus Irish Health Repository, Science.Gov and Embase Grey Literature. Qualitative or mixed methods studies that include qualitative data on the experiences of HCWs will be included. “Best fit” framework synthesis will be utilised to produce a context specific conceptual model to describe and explain how these barriers and facilitators may impact on implementation. An a priori framework of themes, formed from the existing evidence base, will inform the ultimate thematic analysis and assist in the organisation and interpretation of search results, ensuring the QES is built upon current findings. CASP will be utilised to quality appraise articles and GRADE CERQual will assess confidence in the QES findings. The screening, quality appraisal, data extraction and assessment of confidence in findings will be completed by two reviewers independently and in duplicate. Contingencies for conflict management during these processes will be outlined.   Conclusions: This synthesis, will offer a new conceptual model for describing healthcare workers’ experience of the barriers and facilitators that impact on the implementation of screening tools in the ED.   Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020188712 05/07/20

Diagnostic and predictive accuracy of the Clinical Frailty Scale among hospitalised older medical patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

Frailty is a common condition affecting older adults and is associated with increased mortality and adverse outcomes. Identification of older adults at risk of adverse outcomes is central to subsequent resource planning and targeted interventions. This systematic review and meta-analysis will examine the: (1) diagnostic accuracy of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in identifying hospitalised adults ≥65 years with frailty and a medical diagnosis compared with the reference standard Frailty Index or Frailty Phenotype and (2) predictive value of the CFS in determining those at increased risk of subsequent adverse outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will include cross-sectional, retrospective and prospective cohort studies, and randomised controlled trials that assess either the diagnostic accuracy of the CFS when compared with the reference standard Frailty Index/Frailty Phenotype or the predictive validity of the CFS to predict subsequent adverse outcomes in hospitalised adults over 65 years with medical complaints. Adverse outcomes include falls, functional decline, unplanned Emergency Department attendance, emergency rehospitalisation, nursing home admission or death. A systematic search will be conducted in Embase, AMED, MEDLINE (Ebsco, Ovid, Pubmed), CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library. Studies will be limited to those published from 2005 to 30 October 2019. Two independent reviewers will screen all titles and abstracts to identify relevant studies. The methodological quality of studies will be independently assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. A CFS score of >4 will be used to identify frailty. We will construct 2×2 tables and determine true positives, true negatives, false positives and false negatives for each study when compared with the reference standard and for each adverse outcome. A bivariate random effects model will be applied to generate pooled summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this systematic review. We will disseminate our findings through a peer-reviewed journal.

Screening instruments to predict adverse outcomes for undifferentiated older adults attending the emergency department: Protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background: The number of older adults with complex medical comorbidities and functional impairment is increasing throughout the world. Frail older adults frequently attend the Emergency Department (ED) and are at increased risk of adverse outcomes following presentation. A number of screening tools exist that aim to screen older adults for frailty and identify those at risk of functional decline, unscheduled readmission, institutionalisation and mortality. We propose to determine the predictive accuracy of four commonly used screening tools, namely the Identification of Seniors at Risk Screening (ISAR), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Program of Research to Integrate Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy (PRISMA 7) and InterRAI ED, to determine adverse events at 30 days and six months among older adults who present to the ED. Methods and analysis: This is a prospective cohort study where patients over the age of 65 will have four screening tools (ISAR, CFS, PRISMA 7, interRAI ED) performed by face-to-face interview with a research nurse during their index visit to one Irish ED. Older adults will be included if they are willing and able to provide written informed consent, have a Manchester Triage Category 2-5 and are resident in the hospital catchment area. Demographic information will be collected at the index visit. A telephone follow up will occur at 30 days and six months, completed by a research nurse who is blinded to the initial assessment. Outcome data will include mortality rates, ED re-attendance, hospital readmission, functional decline and institutionalisation. We will analyse the risk of adverse outcomes using multivariable logistic regression and we will report adjusted risk ratios (RR) with 95% CI. Dissemination: Study findings will be disseminated through publication in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at relevant academic and clinical conferences. National and International gerontology conferences will be targeted.

SARC-F Predicts Mortality Risk of Older Adults during Hospitalization

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between SARC-F scores and the in-hospital mortality risk among older patients admitted to acute care hospitals.

DESIGN

Single-center retrospective study.

SETTING

A university hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

All consecutive patients aged older than 65 were admitted and discharged from the study hospital between July 2019 and September 2019.

MEASUREMENTS

Relevant patient data included age, sex, body mass index, nutritional status, fat-free mass, disease, activities of daily living (ADL), duration of hospital stay, SARC-F, and occurrence of death within 30 days of hospitalization. The diseases that caused hospitalization and comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index; CCI) were obtained from medical records. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group-performance status (PS) was used to determine ADL, and the in-hospital mortality rate within 30 days of hospitalization as the outcome.

RESULTS

We analyzed 2,424 patients. The mean age was 75.9±6.9 and 55.5% were male. Fifty-three in-hospital mortalities occurred among the participants within the first 30 days of hospitalization. Patients who died in-hospital were older, had poorer nutritional status and severer PS scores, and more comorbidities than those who did not. A SARC-F score of ≥4 predicted a higher mortality risk within those 30 days with the following precision: sensitivity 0.792 and specificity 0.805. There were significantly more deaths in Kaplan-Meier curves regarding a score of SARC-F≥4 than a score of SARC-F<4 (p<0.001). Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to identify the clinical indicators most associated with in-hospital mortality. SARC-F≥4 (Hazard Ratio: HR 5.65, p<0.001), CCI scores (HR1.11, p=0.004), and infectious and parasitic diseases (HR3.13, p=0.031) were associated with in-hospital mortality. The SARC-F items with significant in-hospital mortality effects were assistance with walking (HR 2.55, p<0.001) and climbing stairs (HR 2.46, p=0.002).

CONCLUSION

The SARC-F questionnaire is a useful prognostic indicator for older adults because a SARC-F ≥4 score during admission to an acute care hospital predicts in-hospital mortality within 30 days of hospitalization.

Who Doesn't Come Home? Factors Influencing Mortality Among Long-Term Care Residents Transitioning to and From Emergency Departments in Two Canadian Cities

Residents of long-term care (LTC) whose deaths are imminent are likely to trigger a transfer to the emergency department (ED), which may not be appropriate. Using data from an observational study, we employed structural equation modeling to examine relationships among organizational and resident variables and death during transitions between LTC and ED. We identified 524 residents involved in 637 transfers from 38 LTC facilities and 2 EDs. Our model fit the data, (χ² = 72.91, df = 56, p = .064), explaining 15% variance in resident death. Sustained shortness of breath (SOB), persistent decreased level of consciousness (LOC) and high triage acuity at ED presentation were direct and significant predictors of death. The estimated model can be used as a framework for future research. Standardized reporting of SOB and changes in LOC, scoring of resident acuity in LTC and timely palliative care consultation for families in the ED, when they are present, warrant further investigation.

Conceptualizations of clinical decision-making: a scoping review in geriatric emergency medicine

BACKGROUND

Clinical decision-making (CDM) is an important competency for young doctors especially under complex and uncertain conditions in geriatric emergency medicine (GEM). However, research in this field is characterized by vague conceptualizations of CDM. To evolve and evaluate evidence-based knowledge of CDM, it is important to identify different definitions and their operationalizations in studies on GEM.

OBJECTIVE

A scoping review of empirical articles was conducted to provide an overview of the documented evidence of findings and conceptualizations of CDM in GEM.

METHODS

A detailed search for empirical studies focusing on CDM in a GEM setting was conducted in PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, EMBASE and Web of Science. In total, 52 publications were included in the analysis, utilizing a data extraction sheet, following the PRISMA guidelines. Reported outcomes were summarized.

RESULTS

Four themes of operationalization of CDM emerged: CDM as dispositional decisions, CDM as cognition, CDM as a model, and CDM as clinical judgement. Study results and conclusions naturally differed according to how CDM was conceptualized. Thus, frailty-heuristics lead to biases in treatment of geriatric patients and the complexity of this patient group was seen as a challenge for young physicians engaging in CDM.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review summarizes how different studies in GEM use the term CDM. It provides an analysis of findings in GEM and call for more stringent definitions of CDM in future research, so that it might lead to better clinical practice.

Components of the transitional care model (TCM) to reduce readmission in geriatric patients: a systematic review

Background

Demographic changes are taking place in most industrialized countries. Geriatric patients are defined by the European Union of Medical Specialists as aged over 65 years and suffering from frailty and multi-morbidity, whose complexity puts a major burden on these patients, their family caregivers and the public health care system. To counteract negative outcomes and to maintain consistency in care between hospital and community dwelling, the transitional of care has emerged over the last several decades. Our objectives were to identify and summarize the components of the Transitional Care Model implemented with geriatric patients (aged over 65 years, with multi-morbidity) for the reduction of all-cause readmission. Another objective was to recognize the Transitional Care Model components’ role and impact on readmission rate reduction on the transition of care from hospital to community dwelling (not nursing homes).

Methods

Randomized controlled trials (sample size ≥50 participants per group; intervention period ≥30 days), with geriatric patients were included. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO and The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched from January 1994 to December 2019 published in English or German. A qualitative synthesis of the findings as well as a systematic assessment of the interventions intensities was performed.

Results

Three articles met the inclusion criteria. One of the included trials applied all of the nine Transitional Care Model components described by Hirschman and colleagues and obtained a high-intensity level of intervention in the intensities assessment. This and another trial reported reductions in the readmission rate (p < 0.05), but the third trial did not report significant differences between the groups in the longer follow-up period (up to 12 months).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that high intensity multicomponent and multidisciplinary interventions are likely to be effective reducing readmission rates in geriatric patients, without increasing cost. Components such as type of staffing, assessing and managing symptoms, educating and promoting self-management, maintaining relationships and fostering coordination seem to have an important role in reducing the readmission rate. Research is needed to perform further investigations addressing geriatric patients well above 65 years old, to further understand the importance of individual components of the TCM in this population.

Prognostic value of screening instrument based on the Dutch national VMS guidelines for older patients in the emergency department

PURPOSE

It is important to identify which older patients attending the emergency department are at risk of adverse outcomes to introduce preventive interventions. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a shortened screening instrument based on the Dutch national Safety Management System [Veiligheidsmanagementsysteem (VMS)] guidelines for adverse outcomes in older emergency department patients.

METHODS

A cohort study was performed including patients aged 70 years or older who visited the emergency department. Adverse outcomes included hospital admission, return emergency department visits within 30 days, and 90-day mortality. The prognostic value of the VMS-score was assessed for these adverse events and, in addition, a prediction model was developed for 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

A high VMS-score was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital admission [OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.32-3.86)] and 90-day mortality [HR 2.48 (95% CI 1.31-4.71)]. The individual VMS-questions regarding history of delirium and help in activities of daily living were associated with these outcomes as well. A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed and showed satisfactory calibration and good discrimination [AUC 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.87)]. A cut-off point that selected 30% of patients at the highest risk yielded a sensitivity of 67.4%, a specificity of 75.3%, a positive predictive value of 28.5%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%.

CONCLUSION

The shortened VMS-based screening instrument showed to be of good prognostic value for hospitalization and 90-day mortality. The prediction model for mortality showed promising results and will be further validated and optimized.

Screening for Frailty in Older Emergency Patients and Association with Outcome

Older people have a high incidence of adverse outcomes after urgent care presentation. Identifying high-risk older patients early is key to targeting interventions at those patients most likely to benefit. This study used the Frailsafe three-point screening questions amongst older Emergency Department (ED) attendees. Consecutive unplanned ED attendances in patients aged ≥75 were assessed for Frailsafe status. The primary outcome was mortality at 180 days. A Frailsafe screen was completed in 356 patients, of whom 194/356 (54.5%) were Frailsafe positive. The mean age was 85.8 for Frailsafe screen positive and 82.2 for Frailsafe screen negative patients (p < 0.001). A positive Frailsafe screen was a predictor of death within 180 days of presentation to the ED and remained so after adjustment (AOR = 3.23, 95% CI 1.45–7.19, p = 0.004). A positive Frailsafe screen was an independent predictor of a new care home admission at 180 days (AOR = 8.95, 95% CI 2.01–39.83, p = 0.004). A positive Frailsafe screen was also predictive of a number of secondary outcomes, such as length of stay of >28 days (AOR 3.42, 95% CI 1.41–8.31, p = 0.007) and re-attendance within 30 days of discharge after admission (OR = 2.73, 95% CI 1.27–5.88, p = 0.01). Frailsafe screen results independently predict a range of outcomes amongst older ED attendees.

Clinical and functional patient characteristics predict medical needs in older patients at risk of functional decline

Background

The rising number of older multimorbid in-patients has implications for medical care. There is a growing need for the identification of factors predicting the needs of older patients in hospital environments. Our aim was to evaluate the use of clinical and functional patient characteristics for the prediction of medical needs in older hospitalized patients.

Methods

Two hundred forty-two in-patients (57.4% male) aged 78.4 ± 6.4 years, who were consecutively admitted to internal medicine departments of the University Hospital Essen between July 2015 and February 2017, were prospectively enrolled. Patients were assessed upon admission using the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening followed by comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). The CGA included standardized instruments for the assessment of activities of daily living (ADL), cognition, mobility, and signs of depression upon admission. In multivariable regressions we evaluated the association of clinical patient characteristics, the ISAR score and CGA results with length of hospital stay, number of nursing hours and receiving physiotherapy as indicators for medical needs. We identified clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with higher medical needs.

Results

The 242 patients spent [median(Q1;Q3)]:9.0(4.0;16.0) days in the hospital, needed 2.0(1.5;2.7) hours of nursing each day, and 34.3% received physiotherapy.

In multivariable regression analyses including clinical patient characteristics, ISAR and CGA domains, the factors age (β = − 0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) = − 0.66;-0.13), number of admission diagnoses (β = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.16;0.41), ADL impairment (B = 6.66, 95% CI = 3.312;10.01), and signs of depression (B = 6.69, 95% CI = 1.43;11.94) independently predicted length of hospital stay. ADL impairment (B = 1.14, 95%CI = 0.67;1.61), cognition impairment (B = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.07;1.07) and ISAR score (β =0.26, 95% CI = 0.01;0.28) independently predicted nursing hours. The number of admission diagnoses (risk ratio (RR) = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.04;1.08), ADL impairment (RR = 3.54, 95% CI = 2.29;5.47), cognition impairment (RR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.20;2.62) and signs of depression (RR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.39;2.85) predicted receiving physiotherapy.

Conclusion

Among older in-patients at risk for functional decline, the number of comorbidities, reduced ADL, cognition impairment and signs of depression are important predictors of length of hospital stay, nursing hours, and receiving physiotherapy during hospital stay.

Real-time utilisation of administrative data in the ED to identify older patients at risk: development and validation of the Dynamic Silver Code

OBJECTIVE

Identification of older patients at risk, among those accessing the emergency department (ED), may support clinical decision-making. To this purpose, we developed and validated the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), a score based on real-time linkage of administrative data.

DESIGN AND SETTING

The 'Silver Code National Project (SCNP)', a non-concurrent cohort study, was used for retrospective development and internal validation of the DSC. External validation was obtained in the 'Anziani in DEA (AIDEA)' concurrent cohort study, where the DSC was generated by the software routinely used in the ED.

PARTICIPANTS

The SCNP contained 281 321 records of 180 079 residents aged 75+ years from Tuscany and Lazio, Italy, admitted via the ED to Internal Medicine or Geriatrics units. The AIDEA study enrolled 4425 subjects aged 75+ years (5217 records) accessing two EDs in the area of Florence, Italy.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome: 1-year mortality.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

7 and 30-day mortality and 1-year recurrent ED visits.

RESULTS

Advancing age, male gender, previous hospital admission, discharge diagnosis, time from discharge and polypharmacy predicted 1-year mortality and contributed to the DSC in the development subsample of the SCNP cohort. Based on score quartiles, participants were classified into low, medium, high and very high-risk classes. In the SCNP validation sample, mortality increased progressively from 144 to 367 per 1000 person-years, across DSC classes, with HR (95% CI) of 1.92 (1.85 to 1.99), 2.71 (2.61 to 2.81) and 5.40 (5.21 to 5.59) in class II, III and IV, respectively versus class I (p<0.001). Findings were similar in AIDEA, where the DSC predicted also recurrent ED visits in 1 year. In both databases, the DSC predicted 7 and 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The DSC, based on administrative data available in real time, predicts prognosis of older patients and might improve their management in the ED.

Perspectives of inpatient neurological rehabilitation in elderly patients

Demographic data record an increasing number of people aged over 65 years, with specific health conditions and a high probability to suffer from chronic diseases, cognitive impairment or loss of autonomy, and with limited functional reserve. The prevalence of disability increases with age, affecting 33% of men and 42% of women aged over 85 years. Many neurodegenerative disorders increase in prevalence with age. Thus, the need for rehabilitation treatment in this segment of population is very high, loss of functioning being the most prominent condition for admitting elderly persons in rehabilitation facilities. Rehabilitation in the elderly is an important tool in regaining autonomy, associated with substantial reduction in the burden of health and social costs. Patients aged over 80 years need a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) to establish the global capabilities of the person for inclusion in a coordinated therapy plan and a long term follow-up. CGA will identify patients with severe or complicated medical conditions and important disability who require a multidisciplinary team and a coordinated rehabilitation program, accessible only in rehabilitation hospitals. Rehabilitation treatment should start from the intensive care unit, and continues until the patient reaches a plateau of maximal functional improvement. The most useful therapeutic interventions in old people are physical and occupational therapy, and, for selected and stable patients, therapy in a balnear resort is an option to improve their quality of life. Key words: geriatric population, rehabilitation, loss of autonomy, old patients,

SPMSQ for risk stratification of older patients in the emergency department : An exploratory prospective cohort study

Background

Risk stratification of older patients in the emergency department (ED) is seen as a promising and efficient solution for handling the increase in demand for geriatric emergency medicine. Previously, the predictive validity of commonly used tools for risk stratification, such as the identification of seniors at risk (ISAR), have found only limited evidence in German geriatric patient samples. Given that the adverse outcomes in question, such as rehospitalization, nursing home admission and mortality, are substantially associated with cognitive impairment, the potential of the short portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ) as a tool for risk stratification of older ED patients was investigated.

Objective

To estimate the predictive validity of the SPMSQ for a composite endpoint of adverse events (e.g. rehospitalization, nursing home admission and mortality).

Method

This was a prospective cohort study with 260 patients aged 70 years and above, recruited in a cardiology ED. Patients with a likely life-expectancy below 24 h were excluded. Follow-up examinations were conducted at 1, 3, 6 and 12 month(s) after recruitment.

Results

The SPMSQ was found to be a significant predictor of adverse outcomes not at 1 month (area under the curve, AUC 0.55, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.46–0.63) but at 3 months (AUC 0.61, 95% CI 0.54–0.68), 6 months (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.56–0.70) and 12 months (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.56–0.70) after initial contact.

Conclusion

For longer periods of observation the SPMSQ can be a predictor of a composite endpoint of adverse outcomes even when controlled for a range of confounders. Its characteristics, specifically the low sensitivity, make it unsuitable as an accurate risk stratification tool on its own.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00391-019-01626-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Developing a Frailty Index from routinely collected data in the Emergency Department among of hospitalized patients

PURPOSE

The number of frail patients admitted to Emergency Departments is increasing. The so-called Frailty Index based on the age-related accumulation of deficits models is often perceived as excessively burdening or not feasible in busy clinical settings due to its quantitative nature. We wanted to prove the possibility of generating a Frailty Index in the Emergency Department from data that are routinely collected during the standard clinical practice in this setting and to test its predictive capacity for adverse events.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the medical records of 110 hospitalized patients (mean age = 67.4 ± 18.9 years; women 41.8%) admitted to our Emergency Department during 6 days of 2017. A 41-item Frailty Index was computed from vital signs, physical examination, anamnestic diseases, and blood tests routinely collected by Emergency Department physicians. The length of the subsequent hospital stay and the institutionalization of the patient at the hospital discharge were the dependent variables of interest.

RESULTS

Median length of stay was 11.0 (interquartile range, IQR = 6.0-16.0) days. Institutionalization rate at discharge was 18.2%. The median Frailty Index was 0.22 (IQR = 0.17-0.30). The Frailty Index was significantly correlated with age (Spearman's r = 0.44, p < 0.001) and resulted significantly associated with length of stay and institutionalization. The receiver operating characteristics areas under the curve were 0.731 (Confidence Interval, 95%CI 0.601-0.860, p = 0.001) and 0.726 (95%CI 0.610-0.841, p < 0.001) in the prediction of institutionalization and prolonged hospital stay, respectively. No statistically significant association of age with a length of stay (p = 0.75) nor institutionalization (p = 0.09) was reported.

CONCLUSIONS

The standard multidimensional assessment conducted at the Emergency Department admission has all the necessary features to generate a meaningful clinical Frailty Index, potentially supporting decisions since the first contact of the individual with the hospital system.

Comparison of Frailty Screening Instruments in the Emergency Department

Early identification of frailty through targeted screening can facilitate the delivery of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) and may improve outcomes for older inpatients. As several instruments are available, we aimed to investigate which is the most accurate and reliable in the Emergency Department (ED). We compared the ability of three validated, short, frailty screening instruments to identify frailty in a large University Hospital ED. Consecutive patients aged ≥70 attending ED were screened using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Identification of Seniors at Risk Tool (ISAR), and the Programme on Research for Integrating Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy 7 item questionnaire (PRISMA-7). An independent CGA using a battery of assessments determined each patient’s frailty status. Of the 280 patients screened, complete data were available for 265, with a median age of 79 (interquartile ±9); 54% were female. The median CFS score was 4/9 (±2), ISAR 3/6 (±2), and PRISMA-7 was 3/7 (±3). Based upon the CGA, 58% were frail and the most accurate instrument for separating frail from non-frail was the PRISMA-7 (AUC 0.88; 95% CI:0.83–0.93) followed by the CFS (AUC 0.83; 95% CI:0.77–0.88), and the ISAR (AUC 0.78; 95% CI:0.71–0.84). The PRISMA-7 was statistically significantly more accurate than the ISAR (p = 0.008) but not the CFS (p = 0.15). Screening for frailty in the ED with a selection of short screening instruments, but particularly the PRISMA-7, is reliable and accurate.

Health outcome of older hospitalized patients in internal medicine environments evaluated by Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening and geriatric assessment

Background

Hospitals are in need of valid and economic screening and assessment tools that help identifying older patients at risk for complications which require intensified support during their hospital stay.

Methods

Five hundred forty-seven internal medicine in-patients (mean age 78.14 ± 5.96 years; 54.7% males) prospectively received Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening. If screening results were positive (ISAR score ≥ 2), a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) was performed. We explored sensitivity and specificity of different ISAR and CGA cutoffs. Further, we analyzed the risk of falls and how patients got discharged from hospital.

Results

ISAR+/CGA abnormal patients spent more days in hospital (16.1 ± 14.5), received more nursing hours per day (3.0 ± 2.3), more hours of physiotherapy during their hospital stay (2.2 ± 3.2), and had more falls (10.1%) compared to ISAR+/CGA normal (10.9 ± 12.3, 2.0 ± 1.2, 1.2 ± 4.3, and 2.8%, respectively, all p ≤ 0.016) and ISAR- (9.6 ± 11.5, 2.3 ± 4.5, 0.7 ± 2.0, and 2.2%, respectively, all p ≤ 0.002) patients. ISAR+/CGA abnormal patients terminated their treatment regularly with being discharged back home less often (59.6%) compared to ISAR+/CGA normal (78.5%, p = 0.002) and ISAR- (78.2%, p = 0.056) patients. ISAR cutoff≥2 and CGA defined as abnormal in case of impairment of ADL plus another CGA domain achieved best sensitivity/specificity.

Conclusions

Abnormal geriatric risk screening and assessment are associated with longer hospital stay and higher amount of nursing and physiotherapy during hospital stay, greater risk of falling, and a lower percentage of successfully terminated treatment in older in-patients.

Prospective Validation of a Checklist to Predict Short-term Death in Older Patients After Emergency Department Admission in Australia and Ireland

BACKGROUND

Emergency departments (EDs) are pressured environment where patients with supportive and palliative care needs may not be identified. We aimed to test the predictive ability of the CriSTAL (Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care) checklist to flag patients at risk of death within 3 months who may benefit from timely end-of-life discussions.

METHODS

Prospective cohorts of >65-year-old patients admitted for at least one night via EDs in five Australian hospitals and one Irish hospital. Purpose-trained nurses and medical students screened for frailty using two instruments concurrently and completed the other risk factors on the CriSTAL tool at admission. Postdischarge telephone follow-up was used to determine survival status. Logistic regression and bootstrapping techniques were used to test the predictive accuracy of CriSTAL for death within 90 days of admission as primary outcome. Predictability of in-hospital death was the secondary outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 1,182 patients, with median age 76 to 80 years (IRE-AUS), were included. The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.7-8.6) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1-6.2) and Irish mean of 7.7 (95% CI = 6.9-8.5) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1-6.2). The model with Fried frailty score was optimal for the derivation (Australian) cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic [AUROC] = 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the validation (Irish) cohort were AUROC = 0.70 with Fried and 0.77 using CFS. A minimum of five of 29 variables were sufficient for accurate prediction, and a cut point of 7+ or 6+ depending on the cohort was strongly indicative of risk of death. The most significant independent predictor of short-term death in both cohorts was frailty, carrying a twofold risk of death. CriSTAL's accuracy for in-hospital death prediction was also good (AUROC = 0.795 and 0.81 in Australia and Ireland, respectively), with high specificity and negative predictive values.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried's frailty instrument) had good discriminant power to improve certainty of short-term mortality prediction in both health systems. The predictive ability of models is anticipated to help clinicians gain confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions. The practicalities of embedding screening for risk of death in routine practice warrant further investigation.

Anticipatory Care in Potentially Preventable Hospitalizations: Making Data Sense of Complex Health Journeys

Purpose: Potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) are minimized when adults (usually with multiple morbidities ± frailty) benefit from alternatives to emergency hospital use. A complex systems and anticipatory journey approach to PPH, the Patient Journey Record System (PaJR) is proposed.

Application: PaJR is a web-based service supporting ≥weekly telephone calls by trained lay Care Guides (CG) to individuals at risk of PPH. The Victorian HealthLinks Chronic Care algorithm provides case finding from hospital big data. Prediction algorithms on call data helps optimize emergency hospital use through adaptive and anticipatory care. MonashWatch deployment incorporating PaJR is conducted by Monash Health in its Dandenong urban catchment area, Victoria, Australia.

Theory: A Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework underpins PaJR, and recognizes unique individual journeys, their dependence on historical and biopsychosocial influences, and difficult to predict tipping points. Rosen's modeling relationship and anticipation theory additionally informed the CAS framework with data sense-making and care delivery. PaJR uses perceptions of current and future health (interoception) through ongoing conversations to anticipate possible tipping points. This allows for possible timely intervention in trajectories in the biopsychosocial dimensions of patients as “particulars” in their unique trajectories.

Evaluation: Monash Watch is actively monitoring 272 of 376 intervention patients, with 195 controls over 22 months (ongoing). Trajectories of poor health (SRH) and anticipation of worse/uncertain health (AH), and CG concerns statistically shifted at a tipping point, 3 days before admission in the subset who experienced ≥1 acute admission. The −3 day point was generally consistent across age and gender. Three randomly selected case studies demonstrate the processes of anticipatory and reactive care. PaJR-supported services achieved higher than pre-set targets—consistent reduction in acute bed days (20–25%) vs. target 10% and high levels of patient satisfaction.

Discussion: Anticipatory care is an emerging trajectory data analytic approach that uses human sense-making as its core metric demonstrates improvements in processes and outcomes. Multiple sources can provide big data to inform trajectory care, however simple tailored data collections may prove effective if they embrace human interoception and anticipation. Admission risk may be addressed with a simple data collections including SRH, AH, and CG perceptions, where practical.

Conclusion: Anticipatory care, as operationalized through PaJR approaches applied in MonashWatch, demonstrates processes and outcomes that successfully ameliorate PPH.

Multimorbid outpatients: A high frequency of FP appointments and/or family difficulties, should alert FPs to the possibility of death or acute hospitalization occurring within six months; A primary care feasibility study

Background

The European General Practitioners Research Network (EGPRN) designed and validated a comprehensive definition of multimorbidity using a systematic literature review and qualitative research throughout Europe. This definition was tested as a model to assess death or acute hospitalization in multimorbid outpatients.

Objective

To assess which criteria in the EGPRN concept of multimorbidity could detect outpatients at risk of death or acute hospitalization in a primary care cohort at a 6-month follow-up and to assess whether a large scale cohort with FPs would be feasible.

Method

Family Physicians included a random sample of multimorbid patients who attended appointments in their offices from July to December 2014. Inclusion criteria were those of the EGPRN definition of Multimorbidity. Exclusion criteria were patients under legal protection and those unable to complete the 2-year follow-up. Statistical analysis was undertaken with uni- and multivariate analysis at a 6-month follow-up using a combination of approaches including both automatic classification and expert decision making. A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) completed the process with a projection of illustrative variables. A logistic regression was finally performed in order to identify and quantify risk factors for decompensation.

Results

19 FPs participated in the study. 96 patients were analyzed. 3 different clusters were identified. MCA showed the central function of psychosocial factors and peaceful versus conflictual relationships with relatives in all clusters. While taking into account the limit of a small cohort, age, frequency of family physician visits and extent of family difficulties were the factors which predicted death or acute hospitalization.

Conclusion

A large scale cohort seems feasible in primary care. A sense of alarm should be triggered to prevent death or acute hospitalization in multimorbid older outpatients who have frequent family physician visits and who experience family difficulties.