Subclinical Tuberculosis Disease-A Review and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys to Inform Definitions, Burden, Associations, and Screening Methodology

Current approaches for diagnosis of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis, clinical implications and future perspectives: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Subclinical tuberculosis (TB) is the presence of TB disease among people who are either asymptomatic or have minimal symptoms.

AREAS COVERED

Currently, there are no accurate diagnostic tools and clear treatment approaches for subclinical TB. In this study, a comprehensive literature search was conducted across major databases. This review aimed to uncover the latest advancements in diagnostic approaches, explore their clinical implications, and outline potential future perspectives. While innovative technologies are in development to enable sputum-free TB tests, there remains a critical need for precise diagnostic tools tailored to the unique characteristics of subclinical TB. Given the complexity of subclinical TB, a multidisciplinary approach involving clinicians, microbiologists, epidemiologists, and public health experts is essential. Further research is needed to establish standardized diagnostic criteria and treatment guidelines specifically tailored for subclinical TB, acknowledging the unique challenges posed by this elusive stage of the disease.

EXPERT OPINION

Efforts are needed for the detection, diagnosis, and treatment of subclinical TB. In this review, we describe the importance of subclinical TB, both from a clinical and public health perspective and highlight the diagnostic and treatment gaps of this stage.

Prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis in adults in community settings: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis, which presents without recognisable symptoms, is frequently detected in community screening. However, the disease category is poorly clinically defined. We explored the prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis according to different case definitions.

METHODS

We did a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis of nationally representative surveys that were conducted in countries with high incidence of tuberculosis between 2007 and 2020, that reported the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis based on chest x-ray and symptom screening in participants aged 15 years and older. Screening and diagnostic criteria were standardised across the surveys, and tuberculosis was defined by positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis sputum culture. We estimated proportions of subclinical tuberculosis for three case definitions: no persistent cough (ie, duration ≥2 weeks), no cough at all, and no symptoms (ie, absence of cough, fever, chest pain, night sweats, and weight loss), both unadjusted and adjusted for false-negative chest x-rays and uninterpretable culture results.

FINDINGS

We identified 34 surveys, of which 31 were eligible. Individual participant data were obtained and included for 12 surveys (620 682 participants) across eight countries in Africa and four in Asia. Data on 602 863 participants were analysed, of whom 1944 had tuberculosis. The unadjusted proportion of subclinical tuberculosis was 59·1% (n=1149/1944; 95% CI 55·8-62·3) for no persistent cough and 39·8% (773/1944; 36·6-43·0) for no cough of any duration. The adjusted proportions were 82·8% (95% CI 78·6-86·6) for no persistent cough and 62·5% (56·6-68·7) for no cough at all. In a subset of four surveys, the proportion of participants with tuberculosis but without any symptoms was 20·3% (n=111/547; 95% CI 15·5-25·1) before adjustment and 27·7% (95% CI 21·0-36·4) after adjustment. Tuberculosis without cough, irrespective of its duration, was more frequent among women (no persistent cough: adjusted odds ratio 0·79, 95% CI 0·63-0·97; no cough: adjusted odds ratio 0·76, 95% CI 0·62-0·93). Among participants with tuberculosis, 29·1% (95% CI 25·2-33·3) of those without persistent cough and 23·1% (18·8-27·4) of those without any cough had positive smear examinations.

INTERPRETATION

The majority of people in the community who have pulmonary tuberculosis do not report cough, a quarter report no tuberculosis-suggestive symptoms at all, and a quarter of those not reporting any cough have positive sputum smears, suggesting infectiousness. In high-incidence settings, subclinical tuberculosis could contribute considerably to the tuberculosis burden and to Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission.

FUNDING

Mr Willem Bakhuys Roozeboom Foundation.

Backtranslation of human RNA biosignatures of tuberculosis disease risk into the preclinical pipeline is condition dependent

It is not clear whether human progression to active tuberculosis disease (TB) risk signatures are viable endpoint criteria for evaluations of treatments in clinical or preclinical development. TB is the deadliest infectious disease globally and more efficacious vaccines are needed to reduce this mortality. However, the immune correlates of protection for either preventing infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis or preventing TB disease have yet to be completely defined, making the advancement of candidate vaccines through the pipeline slow, costly, and fraught with risk. Human-derived correlate of risk (COR) gene signatures, which identify an individual's risk to progressing to active TB disease, provide an opportunity for evaluating new therapies for TB with clear and defined endpoints. Though prospective clinical trials with longitudinal sampling are prohibitively expensive, characterization of COR gene signatures is practical with preclinical models. Using a 3Rs (Replacement, Reduction and Refinement) approach we reanalyzed heterogeneous publicly available transcriptional datasets to determine whether a specific set of COR signatures are viable endpoints in the preclinical pipeline. We selected RISK6, Sweeney3 and BATF2 human-derived blood-based RNA biosignatures because they require relatively few genes to assign a score and have been carefully evaluated across several clinical cohorts. Excitingly, these data provide proof-of-concept that human COR signatures seem to have high fidelity across several tissue types in the preclinical TB model pipeline and show best performance when the model most closely reflected human infection or disease conditions. Human-derived COR signatures offer an opportunity for high-throughput preclinical endpoint criteria of vaccine and drug therapy evaluations.

One Sentence Summary

Human-derived biosignatures of tuberculosis disease progression were evaluated for their predictive fidelity across preclinical species and derived tissues using available public data sets.

For Tuberculosis, Not "To Screen or Not to Screen?" but "Who?" and "How?"

Active case finding leveraging new molecular diagnostics and chest X-rays with automated interpretation algorithms is increasingly being developed for high-risk populations to drive down tuberculosis incidence. We consider why such an approach did not deliver a decline in tuberculosis prevalence in Brazilian prison populations and what to consider next.

Cost-Effectiveness of Community-Based Active Case Finding Strategy for Tuberculosis: Evidence From Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND

Active case finding (ACF) is a potentially promising approach for the early identification and treatment of tuberculosis patients. However, evidence on its cost-effectiveness, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, remains limited. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a community-based ACF practice in Shenzhen, China.

METHODS

We employed a Markov model-based decision analytic method to assess the costs and effectiveness of 3 tuberculosis detection strategies: passive case finding (PCF), basic ACF, and advanced ACF. The analysis was conducted from a societal perspective on a dynamic cohort over a 20-year horizon, focusing on active tuberculosis (ATB) prevalence and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Compared to the PCF strategy, the basic and advanced ACF strategies effectively reduced ATB cases by 6.8 and 10.2 per 100 000 population, respectively, by the final year of this 20-year period. The ICER for the basic and advanced ACF strategies were ¥14 757 and ¥8217 per quality-adjusted life-year, respectively. Both values fell below the cost-effectiveness threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that the community-based ACF screening strategy, which targets individuals exhibiting tuberculosis symptoms, is cost-effective. This underscores the potential benefits of adopting similar community-based ACF strategies for symptomatic populations in tuberculosis-endemic areas.

Simultaneous alleviation of verification and reference standard biases in a community-based tuberculosis screening study using Bayesian latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

Estimation of prevalence and diagnostic test accuracy in tuberculosis (TB) prevalence surveys suffer from reference standard and verification biases. The former is attributed to the imperfect reference test used to bacteriologically confirm TB disease. The latter occurs when only the participants screening positive for any TB-compatible symptom or chest X-ray abnormality are selected for bacteriological testing (verification). Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) alleviates the reference standard bias but suffers verification bias in TB prevalence surveys. This work aims to identify best-practice approaches to simultaneously alleviate the reference standard and verification biases in the estimates of pulmonary TB prevalence and diagnostic test performance in TB prevalence surveys.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of 9869 participants aged ≥15 years from a community-based multimorbidity screening study in a rural district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (Vukuzazi study). Participants were eligible for bacteriological testing using Xpert Ultra and culture if they reported any cardinal TB symptom or had an abnormal chest X-ray finding. We conducted Bayesian LCA in five ways to handle the unverified individuals: (i) complete-case analysis, (ii) analysis assuming the unverified individuals would be negative if bacteriologically tested, (iii) analysis of multiply-imputed datasets with imputation of the missing bacteriological test results for the unverified individuals using multivariate imputation via chained equations (MICE), and simultaneous imputation of the missing bacteriological test results in the analysis model assuming the missing bacteriological test results were (iv) missing at random (MAR), and (v) missing not at random (MNAR). We compared the results of (i)-(iii) to the analysis based on a composite reference standard (CRS) of Xpert Ultra and culture. Through simulation with an overall true prevalence of 2.0%, we evaluated the ability of the models to alleviate both biases simultaneously.

RESULTS

Based on simulation, Bayesian LCA with simultaneous imputation of the missing bacteriological test results under the assumption that the missing data are MAR and MNAR alleviate the reference standard and verification biases. CRS-based analysis and Bayesian LCA assuming the unverified are negative for TB alleviate the biases only when the true overall prevalence is <3.0%. Complete-case analysis produced biased estimates. In the Vukuzazi study, Bayesian LCA with simultaneous imputation of the missing bacteriological test results under the MAR and MNAR assumptions produced overall PTB prevalence of 0.9% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.6-1.9) and 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.5-1.1) respectively alongside realistic estimates of overall diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity with substantially overlapping 95% CrI. The CRS-based analysis and Bayesian LCA assuming the unverified were negative for TB produced 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.5-0.9) and 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.5-1.2) overall PTB prevalence respectively with realistic estimates of overall diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity. Unlike CRS-based analysis, Bayesian LCA of multiply-imputed data using MICE mitigates both biases.

CONCLUSION

The findings demonstrate the efficacy of these advanced techniques in alleviating the reference standard and verification biases, enhancing the robustness of community-based screening programs. Imputing missing values as negative for bacteriological tests is plausible under realistic assumptions.

Diagnostic accuracy of a sequence-specific Mtb-DNA hybridization assay in urine: a case-control study including subclinical TB cases

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) remains one of the deadliest infectious diseases globally. Timely diagnosis is a key step in the management of TB patients and in the prevention of further transmission events. Current diagnostic tools are limited in these regards. There is an urgent need for new accurate non-sputum-based diagnostic tools for the detection of symptomatic as well as subclinical TB. In this study, we recruited 52 symptomatic TB patients (sputum Xpert MTB/RIF positive) and 58 household contacts to assess the accuracy of a sequence-specific hybridization assay that detects the presence of Mtb cell-free DNA in urine. Using sputum Xpert MTB/RIF as a reference test, the magnetic bead-capture assay could discriminate active TB from healthy household contacts with an overall sensitivity of 72.1% [confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.86] and specificity of 95.5% (CI 0.90-1.02) with a positive predictive value of 93.9% and negative predictive value of 78.2%. The detection of Mtb-specific DNA in urine suggested four asymptomatic TB infection cases that were confirmed in all instances either by concomitant Xpert MTB/RIF sputum testing or by follow-up investigation raising the specificity of the index test to 100%. We conclude that sequence-specific hybridization assays on urine specimens hold promise as non-invasive tests for the detection of subclinical TB.

IMPORTANCE

There is an urgent need for a non-sputum-based diagnostic tool allowing sensitive and specific detection of all forms of tuberculosis (TB) infections. In that context, we performed a case-control study to assess the accuracy of a molecular detection method enabling the identification of cell-free DNA from Mycobacterium tuberculosis that is shed in the urine of tuberculosis patients. We present accuracy data that would fulfill the target product profile for a non-sputum test. In addition, recent epidemiological data suggested that up to 50% of individuals secreting live bacilli do not present with symptoms at the time of screening. We report, here, that the investigated index test could also detect instances of asymptomatic TB infections among household contacts.

Subclinical tuberculosis linkage to care and completion of treatment following community-based screening in rural South Africa

Background

Tuberculosis (TB), a leading cause of infectious death, is curable when patients complete a course of multi-drug treatment. Because entry into the TB treatment cascade usually relies on symptomatic individuals seeking care, little is known about linkage to care and completion of treatment in people with subclinical TB identified through community-based screening.

Methods

Participants of the Vukuzazi study, a community-based survey that provided TB screening in the rural uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal from May 2018 - March 2020, who had a positive sputum (GeneXpert or Mtb culture, microbiologically-confirmed TB) or a chest x-ray consistent with active TB (radiologically-suggested TB) were referred to the public health system. Telephonic follow-up surveys were conducted from May 2021 - January 2023 to assess linkage to care and treatment status. Linked electronic TB register data was accessed. We analyzed the effect of baseline HIV and symptom status (by WHO 4-symptom screen) on the TB treatment cascade.

Results

Seventy percent (122/174) of people with microbiologically-confirmed TB completed the telephonic survey. In this group, 84% (103/122) were asymptomatic and 46% (56/122) were people living with HIV (PLWH). By self-report, 98% (119/122) attended a healthcare facility after screening, 94% (115/122) started TB treatment and 93% (113/122) completed treatment. Analysis of electronic TB register data confirmed that 67% (116/174) of eligible individuals started TB treatment. Neither symptom status nor HIV status affected linkage to care. Among people with radiologically-suggested TB, 48% (153/318) completed the telephonic survey, of which 80% (122/153) were asymptomatic and 52% (79/153) were PLWH. By self-report, 75% (114/153) attended a healthcare facility after screening, 16% (24/153) started TB treatment and 14% (22/153) completed treatment. Nine percent (28/318) of eligible individuals had TB register data confirming that they started treatment.

Conclusions

Despite high rates of subclinical TB, most people diagnosed with microbiologically-confirmed TB after community-based screening were willing to link to care and complete TB treatment. Lower rates of linkage to care in people with radiologically-suggested TB highlight the importance of streamlined care pathways for this group. Clearer guidelines for the management of people who screen positive during community-based TB screening are needed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s44263-024-00059-0.

Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.

Mirage de tuberculose in the 21st century

The occurrence of transient culture positivity for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), known as mirage de tuberculose, poses significant challenges in understanding its spectrum and implications. Here, we report a case of transient culture positivity, oscillating between detectable and non-detectable MTB cultures with minimal radiological features and review the literature on this phenomenon. The scarcity of scientific literature on this subject stems from the inherent impossibility of systematically studying mirage de tuberculose. Ethical and public health concerns prevent withholding treatment to monitor spontaneous reversion to negative cultures. Based on the literature, we estimate that mirage de tuberculose occurs in approximately one-third of individuals infected with MTB who exhibit no symptoms. Despite the inherently limited nature of these findings, they suggest that the significance of mirage de tuberculose may be greater than currently perceived. Managing cases of mirage de tuberculose presents formidable challenges from a public health perspective. Striking a balance between prompt treatment initiation to prevent transmission and the risk of unnecessary treatment requires careful consideration. In conclusion, mirage de tuberculose remains a poorly understood clinical entity with very limited literature available. Advancing research and interdisciplinary collaborations are essential to unravel the intricacies of this phenomenon and develop effective strategies to address its public health challenges.

Implementation of systematic screening for tuberculosis disease and tuberculosis preventive treatment among people living with HIV attending antiretroviral treatment clinics in Ghana: a national pilot study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the yield and cost of implementing systematic screening for tuberculosis (TB) disease among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and initiation of TB preventive treatment (TPT) in Ghana.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study from August 2019 to December 2020.

SETTING

One hospital from each of Ghana's regions (10 total).

PARTICIPANTS

Any PLHIV already receiving or newly initiating antiretroviral treatment were eligible for inclusion.

INTERVENTIONS

All participants received TB symptom screening and chest radiography. Those with symptoms and/or an abnormal chest X-ray provided a sputum sample for microbiological testing. All without TB disease were offered TPT.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated the proportion diagnosed with TB disease and proportion initiating TPT. We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with TB disease diagnosis. We used microcosting to estimate the health system cost per person screened (2020 US$).

RESULTS

Of 12 916 PLHIV attending participating clinics, 2639 (20%) were enrolled in the study and screened for TB disease. Overall, 341/2639 (12.9%, 95% CI 11.7% to 14.3%) had TB symptoms and/or an abnormal chest X-ray; 50/2639 (1.9%; 95% CI 1.4% to 2.5%) were diagnosed with TB disease, 20% of which was subclinical. In multivariable analysis, only those newly initiating antiretroviral treatment were at increased odds of TB disease (adjusted OR 4.1, 95% CI 2.0 to 8.2). Among 2589 participants without TB, 2581/2589 (99.7%) initiated TPT. Overall, the average cost per person screened during the study was US$57.32.

CONCLUSION

In Ghana, systematic TB disease screening among PLHIV was of high yield and modest cost when combined with TPT. Our findings support WHO recommendations for routine TB disease screening among PLHIV.

Characteristics of culture-negative subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis: a single-center observation

BACKGROUND

Little is known about culture-negative subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), and its diagnosis remains challenging. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the characteristics and the extent of disease associated with culture-negative subclinical pulmonary TB.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted on immunocompetent individuals with subclinical pulmonary TB at a university hospital in Thailand from January 2014 to December 2019. Subclinical pulmonary TB was diagnosed based on the presence of radiographic abnormalities consistent with TB in the absence of TB symptoms. All subjects demonstrated significant improvement or resolution of radiographic abnormalities following the completion of treatment. At least two negative sputum cultures were needed to fulfill the definition of culture-negative pulmonary TB. Data were analyzed using univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses to determine the characteristics of those with culture-negative subclinical pulmonary TB compared to culture-positive ones.

RESULTS

Out of the 106 individuals identified with subclinical pulmonary TB, 84 met the criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The study found lower radiographic extent and increasing age were key attributes of culture-negative subclinical pulmonary TB. The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were 7.18 (1.76 to 29.35) and 1.07 (1.01 to 1.13), respectively. They tend to have lower rates of bilateral involvement in both chest x-ray (8.5% vs. 32.0%, p=0.006) and computed tomography (15.4% vs. 42.9%, p=0.035). However, no other specific radiographic findings were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

People with culture-negative subclinical pulmonary TB were likely to have less radiographic -severity, reflecting early disease. Nevertheless, no radiographic patterns, except for unilaterality, were related to culture-negative subclinical pulmonary TB.

Population-wide active case finding as a strategy to end TB

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite available tools for preventing, finding, and treating TB, many people with TB remain undiagnosed. In high-incidence settings, TB transmission is ubiquitous within the community, affecting both high-risk groups and the general population. In fact, most people who develop TB come from the general population. To disrupt the chain of transmission that sustains the TB epidemic, we need to find and treat everyone with infectious TB as early as possible, including those with minimal symptoms or subclinical TB who are unlikely to present for care. Important elements of an effective active case-finding strategy include effective social mobilisation and community engagement, using sensitive screening tools that can be used at scale, and embracing population-wide screening in high-incidence ('hot spot') areas. We require a better description of feasible delivery models, 'real-life' impact and cost effectiveness to enable wider implementation.

Subclinical tuberculosis: a meta-analysis of prevalence and scoping review of definitions, prevalence and clinical characteristics

BACKGROUND

This scoping review aimed to characterise definitions used to describe subclinical tuberculosis (TB), estimate the prevalence in different populations and describe the clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes in the scientific literature.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed. We included studies published in English between January 1990 and August 2022 that defined "subclinical" or "asymptomatic" pulmonary TB disease, regardless of age, HIV status and comorbidities. We estimated the weighted pooled proportions of subclinical TB using a random-effects model by World Health Organization reported TB incidence, populations and settings. We also pooled the proportion of subclinical TB according to definitions described in published prevalence surveys.

RESULTS

We identified 29 prevalence surveys and 71 other studies. Prevalence survey data (2002-2022) using "absence of cough of any duration" criteria reported higher subclinical TB prevalence than those using the stricter "completely asymptomatic" threshold. Prevalence estimates overlap in studies using other symptoms and cough duration. Subclinical TB in studies was commonly defined as asymptomatic TB disease. Higher prevalence was reported in high TB burden areas, community settings and immunocompetent populations. People with subclinical TB showed less extensive radiographic abnormalities, higher treatment success rates and lower mortality, although studies were few.

CONCLUSION

A substantial proportion of TB is subclinical. However, prevalence estimates were highly heterogeneous between settings. Most published studies incompletely characterised the phenotype of people with subclinical TB. Standardised definitions and diagnostic criteria are needed to characterise this phenotype. Further research is required to enhance case finding, screening, diagnostics and treatment options for subclinical TB.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains the foremost cause of death by an infectious disease globally. Multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB; resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid, or rifampicin alone) is a burgeoning public health challenge in several parts of the world, and especially Eastern Europe, Russia, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Pre-extensively drug-resistant TB (pre-XDR-TB) refers to MDR/RR-TB that is also resistant to a fluoroquinolone, and extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) isolates are additionally resistant to other key drugs such as bedaquiline and/or linezolid. Collectively, these subgroups are referred to as drug-resistant TB (DR-TB). All forms of DR-TB can be as transmissible as rifampicin-susceptible TB; however, it is more difficult to diagnose, is associated with higher mortality and morbidity, and higher rates of post-TB lung damage. The various forms of DR-TB often consume >50% of national TB budgets despite comprising <5-10% of the total TB case-load. The past decade has seen a dramatic change in the DR-TB treatment landscape with the introduction of new diagnostics and therapeutic agents. However, there is limited guidance on understanding and managing various aspects of this complex entity, including the pathogenesis, transmission, diagnosis, management and prevention of MDR-TB and XDR-TB, especially at the primary care physician level.

Outcomes for people with TB by disease severity at presentation

BACKGROUND

There is substantial heterogeneity in disease presentation for individuals with TB disease, which may correlate with disease outcomes. We estimated disease outcomes by disease severity at presentation among individuals with TB during the pre-chemotherapy era.

METHODS

We extracted data on people with TB enrolled between 1917 and 1948 in the USA, stratified by three disease severity categories at presentation using the U.S. National Tuberculosis Association diagnostic criteria. These criteria were based largely on radiographic findings ("minimal", "moderately advanced", and "far advanced"). We used Bayesian parametric survival analysis to model the survival distribution overall, and by disease severity and Bayesian logistic regression to estimate the severity-level specific natural recovery odds within 3 years.

RESULTS

People with minimal TB at presentation had a 2% (95% CrI 0-11%) probability of TB death within 5 years vs. 40% (95% CrI 15-68) for those with far advanced disease. Individuals with minimal disease had 13.62 times the odds (95% CrI 9.87-19.10) of natural recovery within 3 years vs. those with far advanced disease.

CONCLUSION

Mortality and natural recovery vary by disease severity at presentation. This supports continued work to evaluate individualized (e.g., shortened or longer) regimens based on disease severity at presentation, identified using radiography..

Accuracy of digital chest x-ray analysis with artificial intelligence software as a triage and screening tool in hospitalized patients being evaluated for tuberculosis in Lima, Peru

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission in healthcare facilities is common in high-incidence countries. Yet, the optimal approach for identifying inpatients who may have TB is unclear. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of qXR (Qure.ai, India) computer-aided detection (CAD) software versions 3.0 and 4.0 (v3 and v4) as a triage and screening tool within the FAST (Find cases Actively, Separate safely, and Treat effectively) transmission control strategy. We prospectively enrolled two cohorts of patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Lima, Peru: one group had cough or TB risk factors (triage) and the other did not report cough or TB risk factors (screening). We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of qXR for the diagnosis of pulmonary TB using culture and Xpert as primary and secondary reference standards, including stratified analyses based on risk factors. In the triage cohort (n = 387), qXR v4 sensitivity was 0.91 (59/65, 95% CI 0.81-0.97) and specificity was 0.32 (103/322, 95% CI 0.27-0.37) using culture as reference standard. There was no difference in the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) between qXR v3 and qXR v4 with either a culture or Xpert reference standard. In the screening cohort (n = 191), only one patient had a positive Xpert result, but specificity in this cohort was high (>90%). A high prevalence of radiographic lung abnormalities, most notably opacities (81%), consolidation (62%), or nodules (58%), was detected by qXR on digital CXR images from the triage cohort. qXR had high sensitivity but low specificity as a triage in hospitalized patients with cough or TB risk factors. Screening patients without cough or risk factors in this setting had a low diagnostic yield. These findings further support the need for population and setting-specific thresholds for CAD programs.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Computer-Aided Detection During Active Case Finding for Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Computer-aided detection (CAD) may be a useful screening tool for tuberculosis (TB). However, there are limited data about its utility in active case finding (ACF) in a community-based setting, and particularly in an HIV-endemic setting where performance may be compromised.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and evaluated articles published between January 2012 and February 2023 that included CAD as a screening tool to detect pulmonary TB against a microbiological reference standard (sputum culture and/or nucleic acid amplification test [NAAT]). We collected and summarized data on study characteristics and diagnostic accuracy measures. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality against Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 criteria. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies (PRISMA-DTA) guidelines were followed.

Results

Of 1748 articles reviewed, 5 met with the eligibility criteria and were included in this review. A meta-analysis revealed pooled sensitivity of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.78-0.96) and specificity of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), just below the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended target product profile (TPP) for a screening test (sensitivity ≥0.90 and specificity ≥0.70). We found a high risk of bias and applicability concerns across all studies. Subgroup analyses, including the impact of HIV and previous TB, were not possible due to the nature of the reporting within the included studies.

Conclusions

This review provides evidence, specifically in the context of ACF, for CAD as a potentially useful and cost-effective screening tool for TB in a resource-poor HIV-endemic African setting. However, given methodological concerns, caution is required with regards to applicability and generalizability.

The Yield of Active Tuberculosis Disease and Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Tuberculosis Household Contacts Investigated Using Chest X-ray in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia

In Indonesia, the implementation of tuberculosis (TB) contact investigation is limited, with low detection rates. We report the yield of and risk factors for TB disease and infection for household contacts (HHCs) investigated using chest X-ray (CXR) screening. We identified HHCs aged five years and above of bacteriologically confirmed index cases from 2018 to 2022 in Yogyakarta City and Kulon Progo. All HHCs were offered screening for TB symptoms; TB infection testing with either tuberculin skin testing or interferon gamma release assay; and referral for CXR. Sputum from those with symptoms or CXR suggestive of TB was tested with Xpert MTB/RIF. Risk factors for active TB disease and latent TB infection (LTBI) were identified by logistic regression models. We screened 2857 HHCs for TB between June 2020 and December 2022, with 68 (2.4%) diagnosed with active TB. Of 2621 HHCs eligible for LTBI investigation, 1083 (45.7%) were diagnosed with LTBI. The factors associated with active TB were age, being underweight, diabetes mellitus, urban living, and sleeping in the same house as an index case. Factors associated with LTBI were increasing age and male gender. Conclusions: Screening for HHC including CXR and TST/IGRA yielded a moderate prevalence of TB disease and infection.

Cost-effectiveness of Low-complexity Screening Tests in Community-based Case-finding for Tuberculosis

INTRODUCTION

In high-burden settings, low-complexity screening tests for tuberculosis (TB) could expand the reach of community-based case-finding efforts. The potential costs and cost-effectiveness of approaches incorporating these tests are poorly understood.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model assessing 3 approaches to community-based case-finding in hypothetical populations (India-, South Africa-, The Philippines-, Uganda-, and Vietnam-like settings) with TB prevalence 4 times that of national estimates: (1) screening with a point-of-care C-reactive protein (CRP) test, (2) screening with a more sensitive "Hypothetical Screening test" (95% sensitive for Xpert Ultra-positive TB, 70% specificity; equipment/labor costs similar to Xpert Ultra, but using a $2 cartridge) followed by sputum Xpert Ultra if positive, or (3) testing all individuals with sputum Xpert Ultra. Costs are expressed in 2023 US dollars and include treatment costs.

RESULTS

Universal Xpert Ultra was estimated to cost a mean $4.0 million (95% uncertainty range: $3.5 to $4.6 million) and avert 3200 (2600 to 3900) TB-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100 000 people screened ($670 [The Philippines] to $2000 [Vietnam] per DALY averted). CRP was projected to cost $550 (The Philippines) to $1500 (Vietnam) per DALY averted but with 44% fewer DALYs averted. The Hypothetical Screening test showed minimal benefit compared to universal Xpert Ultra, but if specificity were improved to 95% and per-test cost to $4.5 (all-inclusive), this strategy could cost $390 (The Philippines) to $940 (Vietnam) per DALY averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening tests can meaningfully improve the cost-effectiveness of community-based case-finding for TB but only if they are sensitive, specific, and inexpensive.

Applicability of artificial intelligence-based computer-aided detection (AI-CAD) for pulmonary tuberculosis to community-based active case finding

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence-based computer-aided detection (AI-CAD) for tuberculosis (TB) has become commercially available and several studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of AI-CAD for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in clinical settings. However, little is known about its applicability to community-based active case-finding (ACF) for TB.

METHODS

We analysed an anonymized data set obtained from a community-based ACF in Cambodia, targeting persons aged 55 years or over, persons with any TB symptoms, such as chronic cough, and persons at risk of TB, including household contacts. All of the participants in the ACF were screened by chest radiography (CXR) by Cambodian doctors, followed by Xpert test when they were eligible for sputum examination. Interpretation by an experienced chest physician and abnormality scoring by a newly developed AI-CAD were retrospectively conducted for the CXR images. With a reference of Xpert-positive TB or human interpretations, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the AI-CAD performance by area under the ROC curve (AUROC). In addition, its applicability to community-based ACFs in Cambodia was examined.

RESULTS

TB scores of the AI-CAD were significantly associated with the CXR classifications as indicated by the severity of TB disease, and its AUROC as the bacteriological reference was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.89). Using a threshold for triage purposes, the human reading and bacteriological examination needed fell to 21% and 15%, respectively, detecting 95% of Xpert-positive TB in ACF. For screening purposes, we could detect 98% of Xpert-positive TB cases.

CONCLUSIONS

AI-CAD is applicable to community-based ACF in high TB burden settings, where experienced human readers for CXR images are scarce. The use of AI-CAD in developing countries has the potential to expand CXR screening in community-based ACFs, with a substantial decrease in the workload on human readers and laboratory labour. Further studies are needed to generalize the results to other countries by increasing the sample size and comparing the AI-CAD performance with that of more human readers.

Delays in health seeking, diagnosis and treatment for tuberculosis patients in Mongolia: an analysis of surveillance data, 2018-2021

Early diagnosis and treatment of infectious tuberculosis (TB) is essential to the attainment of global targets specified in the End TB Strategy. Using case-based TB surveillance data, we analysed delays in health seeking, diagnosis and treatment among TB patients in Mongolia from 2018 to 2021. We calculated the median and interquartile range (IQR) for "diagnostic delay," defined as the time from symptom onset to diagnosis, subdivided into "health-seeking delay" (time from symptom onset to first visit to a health facility) and "health facility diagnostic delay" (time from first health facility visit to diagnosis), and for "treatment delay," defined as the time from diagnosis to start of treatment. We also calculated "total delay," defined as the time from symptom onset to treatment start. Based on data for 13 968 registered TB patients, the median total delay was estimated to be 37 days (IQR, 19-76). This was mostly due to health-seeking delay (median, 23 days; IQR, 8-53); in contrast, health facility diagnostic delay and treatment delay were relatively short (median, 1 day; IQR, 0-7; median, 1 day; IQR, 0-7, respectively). In 2021, health-seeking delay did not differ significantly between men and women but was shorter in children than in adults and shorter in clinically diagnosed than in bacteriologically confirmed TB cases. Health-seeking delay was longest in the East region (median, 44.5 days; IQR, 20-87) and shortest in Ulaanbaatar (median, 9; IQR, 14-64). TB treatment delay was similar across sexes, age groups and types of TB diagnosis but slightly longer among retreated cases and people living in Ulaanbaatar. Efforts to reduce TB transmission in Mongolia should prioritize decreasing delays in health seeking.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys

Background

Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare.

Methods

We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission.

Results

We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination.

Funding

JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).

How We Treat Drug-Susceptible Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Practical Guide for Clinicians

Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and pulmonary TB (PTB) is the main variant responsible for fueling transmission of the infection. Effective treatment of drug-susceptible (DS) TB is crucial to avoid the emergence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-resistant strains. In this narrative review, through a fictional suggestive case of DS PTB, we guide the reader in a step-by-step commentary to provide an updated review of current evidence in the management of TB, from diagnosis to post-treatment follow-up. World Health Organization and Centre for Diseases Control (CDC) guidelines for TB, as well as the updated literature, were used to support this manuscript.

Accuracy of digital chest x-ray analysis with artificial intelligence software as a triage and screening tool in hospitalized patients being evaluated for tuberculosis in Lima, Peru

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission in healthcare facilities is common in high-incidence countries. Yet, the optimal approach for identifying inpatients who may have TB is unclear. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of qXR (Qure.ai, India) computer-aided detection (CAD) software versions 3.0 and 4.0 (v3 and v4) as a triage and screening tool within the FAST (Find cases Actively, Separate safely, and Treat effectively) transmission control strategy.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled two cohorts of patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Lima, Peru: one group had cough or TB risk factors (triage) and the other did not report cough or TB risk factors (screening). We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of qXR for the diagnosis of pulmonary TB using culture and Xpert as primary and secondary reference standards, including stratified analyses based on risk factors.

Results

In the triage cohort (n=387), qXR v4 sensitivity was 0.91 (59/65, 95% CI 0.81-0.97) and specificity was 0.32 (103/322, 95% CI 0.27-0.37) using culture as reference standard. There was no difference in the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) between qXR v3 and qXR v4 with either a culture or Xpert reference standard. In the screening cohort (n=191), only one patient had a positive Xpert result, but specificity in this cohort was high (>90%). A high prevalence of radiographic lung abnormalities, most notably opacities (81%), consolidation (62%), or nodules (58%), was detected by qXR on digital CXR images from the triage cohort.

Conclusions

qXR had high sensitivity but low specificity as a triage in hospitalized patients with cough or TB risk factors. Screening patients without cough or risk factors in this setting had a low diagnostic yield. These findings further support the need for population and setting-specific thresholds for CAD programs.

Tuberculosis Knowledge among Persons Living with HIV Attending a Tertiary Hospital in Lima, Peru

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among people living with HIV (PLWH). Limited TB knowledge has been associated with delayed TB diagnosis and low adherence to TB treatment. A cross-sectional study was conducted among PLWH at the largest HIV-referral center in Lima, Peru, to describe TB knowledge among PLWH and potential associated sociodemographic factors. Participants answered a self-administered survey on TB knowledge, which consisted of five questions about TB cure, transmission, treatment, symptoms, and prevention. Of 179 PLWH enrolled, most participants did not know that isoniazid (85%) and antiretrovirals (78%) are preventive measures for TB, and 56 (31.3%) knew that TB can be asymptomatic in PLWH. We did not find statistical differences in TB knowledge based on gender, education, marital status, and time on HIV care. We identified important gaps in TB knowledge among PLWH. Addressing these gaps could empower PLWH to reduce their TB risk.

Accuracy of Xpert® MTB/RIF Ultra test for posterior oropharyngeal saliva for the diagnosis of paucibacillary pulmonary tuberculosis: a prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Posterior oropharyngeal saliva (POS) is increasingly recognized as an alternative specimen for detecting respiratory pathogens. The accuracy of Xpert® MTB/RIF Ultra (X-Ultra), when performed on POS obtained from patients with paucibacillary pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is unclear.

METHODS

We consecutively recruited adults with symptoms suggestive of pulmonary TB who were negative by both smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (X-Classic). Each participant was required to provide one bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and one POS specimen, respectively. Diagnostic performances of X-Ultra and X-Classic on POS were compared against clinical and mycobacterial reference standards.

FINDINGS

686 participants meeting inclusion criteria were consecutively enrolled into the study. The overall diagnostic sensitivities of X-Ultra and X-Classic on POS samples were 78.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 72.8-83.8] and 56.4% (95% CI: 49.7-62.9), respectively; the specificities were 96.6% (95% CI: 94.3-98.1) for X-Ultra and 97.6 (95CI: 95.5-98.8) for X-Classic in POS specimens. Notably, the sensitivity of X-Ultra on POS was as sensitive as X-Classic on BALF against microbiological reference standard (78.9% VS 73.1%). Against clinical diagnosis as a reference standard, the sensitivities of X-Ultra and X-Classic on POS were 55.9% (95% CI: 50.5-61.2; 193/345) and 40.0% (95% CI: 34.8-45.4; 138/345), respectively. The risk of negative results with POS was dramatically increased with decreasing bacterial loads.

CONCLUSIONS

The testing of POS using X-Ultra shows promise as a tool to identify patients with paucibacillary TB. Considering that bronchoscopy is a semi-invasive procedure, POS testing ahead of bronchoscopy, may decrease the need for bronchoscopic procedures, and the cost of care.

Dynamics of tuberculosis infection in various populations during the 19th and 20th century: The impact of conservative and pharmaceutical treatments

Humans and Mycobacterium tuberculosis have co-evolved together for thousands of years. Many individuals are infected with the bacterium, but few show signs and symptoms of tuberculosis (TB). Pharmacotherapy to treat those who develop disease is useful, but drug resistance and non-adherence significantly impact the efficacy of these treatments. Prior to the introduction of antibiotic therapies, public health strategies were used to reduce TB mortality. This work shows how these strategies were able to reduce TB mortality in 19th and 20th century populations, compared with antibiotic treatments. Previously published mortality data from historical records for several populations (Switzerland, Germany, England and Wales, Scotland, USA, Japan, Brazil and South Africa) were used. Curvilinear regression was used to examine the reduction in mortality before and after the introduction of antibiotic treatments (1946). A strong decline in TB mortality was already occurring in Switzerland, Germany, England and Wales, Scotland and the USA prior to the introduction of antibiotic treatment. This occurred following many public health interventions including improved sanitation, compulsory reporting of TB cases, diagnostic techniques and sanatoria treatments. Following the introduction of antibiotics, mortality rates declined further, however, this had a smaller effect than the previously employed strategies. In Japan, Brazil and South Africa, reductions in mortality rates were largely driven by antibiotic treatments that caused rapid decline of mortality, with a smaller contribution from public health strategies. For the development of active disease, immune status is important. Individuals infected with the bacterium are more likely to develop signs and symptoms if their immune function is reduced. Effective strategies against TB can therefore include enhancing immune function of the population by improving nutrition, as well as reducing transmission by improving living conditions and public health. This has been effective in the past. Improving immunity may be an important strategy against drug resistant TB.

Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis

Traditional understanding of the risk of progression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection to tuberculosis (TB) overlooks diverse presentations across a spectrum of disease. We developed a deterministic model of Mtb infection and minimal (pathological damage but not infectious), subclinical (infectious but no reported symptoms), and clinical (infectious and symptomatic) TB, informed by a rigorous evaluation of data from a systematic review of TB natural history. Using a Bayesian approach, we calibrated the model to data from historical cohorts that followed tuberculin-negative individuals to tuberculin conversion and TB, as well as data from cohorts that followed progression and regression between disease states, disease state prevalence ratios, disease duration, and mortality. We estimated incidence, pathways, and 10-y outcomes following Mtb infection for a simulated cohort. Then, 92.0% (95% uncertainty interval, UI, 91.4 to 92.5) of individuals self-cleared within 10 y of infection, while 7.9% (95% UI 7.4 to 8.5) progressed to TB. Of those, 68.6% (95% UI 65.4 to 72.0) developed infectious disease, and 33.2% (95% UI 29.9 to 36.4) progressed to clinical disease. While 98% of progression to minimal disease occurred within 2 y of infection, only 71% and 44% of subclinical and clinical disease, respectively, occurred within this period. Multiple progression pathways from infection were necessary to calibrate the model and 49.5% (95% UI 45.6 to 53.7) of those who developed infectious disease undulated between disease states. We identified heterogeneous pathways across disease states after Mtb infection, highlighting the need for clearly defined disease thresholds to inform more effective prevention and treatment efforts to end TB.

Quantifying the potential epidemiological impact of a 2-year active case finding for tuberculosis in rural Nepal: a model-based analysis

OBJECTIVES

Active case finding (ACF) is an important tuberculosis (TB) intervention in high-burden settings. However, empirical evidence garnered from field data has been equivocal about the long-term community-level impact, and more data at a finer geographic scale and data-informed methods to quantify their impact are necessary.

METHODS

Using village development committee (VDC)-level data on TB notification and demography between 2016 and 2017 in four southern districts of Nepal, where ACF activities were implemented as a part of the IMPACT-TB study between 2017 and 2019, we developed VDC-level transmission models of TB and ACF. Using these models and ACF yield data collected in the study, we estimated the potential epidemiological impact of IMPACT-TB ACF and compared its efficiency across VDCs in each district.

RESULTS

Cases were found in the majority of VDCs during IMPACT-TB ACF, but the number of cases detected within VDCs correlated weakly with historic case notification rates. We projected that this ACF intervention would reduce the TB incidence rate by 14% (12-16) in Chitwan, 8.6% (7.3-9.7) in Dhanusha, 8.3% (7.3-9.2) in Mahottari and 3% (2.5-3.2) in Makwanpur. Over the next 10 years, we projected that this intervention would avert 987 (746-1282), 422 (304-571), 598 (450-782) and 197 (172-240) cases in Chitwan, Dhanusha, Mahottari and Makwanpur, respectively. There was substantial variation in the efficiency of ACF across VDCs: there was up to twofold difference in the number of cases averted in the 10 years per case detected.

CONCLUSION

ACF data confirm that TB is widely prevalent, including in VDCs with relatively low reporting rates. Although ACF is a highly efficient component of TB control, its impact can vary substantially at local levels and must be combined with other interventions to alter TB epidemiology significantly.

Prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis and its association with HIV in household contacts of index tuberculosis patients in two South African provinces: a secondary, cross-sectional analysis of a cluster-randomised trial

Background

People with subclinical tuberculosis (TB) have microbiological evidence of disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, but either do not have or do not report TB symptoms. The relationship between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and subclinical TB is not yet well understood. We estimated the prevalence of subclinical pulmonary TB in household contacts of index TB patients in two South African provinces, and how this differed by HIV status.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional, secondary analysis of baseline data from the intervention arm of a household cluster randomised trial. Prevalence of subclinical TB was measured as the number of household contacts aged ≥ 5 years who had positive sputum TB microscopy, culture or nucleic acid amplification test (Xpert MTB/Rif or Xpert Ultra) results on a single sputum specimen and who did not report current cough, fever, weight loss or night sweats on direct questioning. Regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between HIV status and subclinical TB; adjusting for province, sex and age in household contacts; and HIV status in index patients.

Results

Amongst household contacts, microbiologically confirmed prevalent subclinical TB was over twice as common as symptomatic TB disease (48/2077, 2.3%, 95% CI 1.7-3.1% compared to 20/2077, 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6-1.5%). Subclinical TB prevalence was higher in people living with HIV (15/377, 4.0%, 95% CI 2.2-6.5%) compared to those who were HIV-negative (33/1696, 1.9%, 95% CI 1.3-2.7%; p = 0.018). In regression analysis, living with HIV (377/2077, 18.2%) was associated with a two-fold increase in prevalent subclinical TB with 95% confidence intervals consistent with no association through to a four-fold increase (adjusted OR 2.00, 95% CI 0.99-4.01, p = 0.052). Living with HIV was associated with a five-fold increase in prevalent symptomatic TB (adjusted OR 5.05, 95% CI 2.22-11.59, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Most (70.6%) pulmonary TB diagnosed in household contacts in this setting was subclinical. Living with HIV was likely associated with prevalent subclinical TB and was associated with prevalent symptomatic TB. Universal sputum testing with sensitive assays improves early TB diagnosis in subclinical household contacts.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s44263-023-00022-5.

Prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in urban Blantyre, Malawi 2019-20: Substantial decline compared to 2013-14 national survey

Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men.

Finding and treating both tuberculosis disease and latent infection during population-wide active case finding for tuberculosis elimination

In recognition of the high rates of undetected tuberculosis in the community, the World Health Organization (WHO) encourages targeted active case finding (ACF) among "high-risk" populations. While this strategy has led to increased case detection in these populations, the epidemic impact of these interventions has not been demonstrated. Historical data suggest that population-wide (untargeted) ACF can interrupt transmission in high-incidence settings, but implementation remains lacking, despite recent advances in screening tools. The reservoir of latent infection-affecting up to a quarter of the global population -complicates elimination efforts by acting as a pool from which future tuberculosis cases may emerge, even after all active cases have been treated. A holistic case finding strategy that addresses both active disease and latent infection is likely to be the optimal approach for rapidly achieving sustainable progress toward TB elimination in a durable way, but safety and cost effectiveness have not been demonstrated. Sensitive, symptom-agnostic community screening, combined with effective tuberculosis treatment and prevention, should eliminate all infectious cases in the community, whilst identifying and treating people with latent infection will also eliminate tomorrow's tuberculosis cases. If real strides toward global tuberculosis elimination are to be made, bold strategies are required using the best available tools and a long horizon for cost-benefit assessment.

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra on contaminated liquid cultures for tuberculosis and rifampicin-resistance detection: a diagnostic accuracy evaluation

BACKGROUND

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) is a widely used rapid front-line tuberculosis and rifampicin-susceptibility testing. Mycobacterium Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) 960 liquid culture is used as an adjunct but is vulnerable to contamination. We aimed to assess whether Ultra can be used on to-be-discarded contaminated cultures.

METHODS

We stored contaminated MGIT960 tubes (growth-positive, acid-fast bacilli [AFB]-negative) originally inoculated at a high-volume laboratory in Cape Town, South Africa, to diagnose patients with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis. Patients who had no positive tuberculosis results (smear, Ultra, or culture) at contamination detection and had another, later specimen submitted within 3 months of the contaminated specimen were selected. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of Ultra on contaminated growth from the first culture for tuberculosis (next-available non-contaminated culture result reference standard) and rifampicin resistance (vs MTBDRplus on a later isolate). We calculated potential time-to-diagnosis improvements and also evaluated the immunochromatographic MPT64 TBc assay.

FINDINGS

Between June 1 and Aug 31, 2019, 36 684 specimens from 26 929 patients were processed for diagnostic culture. 2402 (7%) cultures from 2186 patients were contaminated. 1068 (49%) of 2186 patients had no other specimen submitted. After 319 exclusions, there were 799 people with at least one repeat specimen submitted; of these, we included in our study 246 patients (31%) with a culture-positive repeat specimen and 429 patients (54%) with a culture-negative repeat specimen. 124 patients (16%) with a culture-contaminated repeat specimen were excluded. When Ultra was done on the initial contaminated growth, sensitivity was 89% (95% CI 84-94) for tuberculosis and 95% (75-100) for rifampicin-resistance detection, and specificity was 95% (90-98) for tuberculosis and 98% (93-100) for rifampicin-resistance detection. If our approach were used the day after contamination detection, the time to tuberculosis detection would improve by a median of 23 days (IQR 13-45) and provide a result in many patients who had none. MPT64 TBc had a sensitivity of 5% (95% CI 0-25).

INTERPRETATION

Ultra on AFB-negative growth from contaminated MGIT960 tubes had high sensitivity and specificity, approximating WHO criteria for sputum test target product performance and exceeding drug susceptibility testing. Our approach could mitigate negative effects of culture contamination, especially when repeat specimens are not submitted.

FUNDING

The European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, National Institutes of Health.

The potential health and economic impacts of new tuberculosis vaccines under varying delivery strategies in Delhi and Gujarat, India: a modelling study

Background

India has the largest tuberculosis burden globally, but this burden varies nationwide. All-age tuberculosis prevalence in 2021 ranged from 747/100,000 in Delhi to 137/100,000 in Gujarat. Previous modelling has demonstrated the benefits and costs of introducing novel tuberculosis vaccines in India overall. However, no studies have compared the potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in regions within India with differing tuberculosis disease and infection prevalence. We used mathematical modelling to investigate how the health and economic impact of two potential tuberculosis vaccines, M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination, could differ in Delhi and Gujarat under varying delivery strategies.

Methods

We applied a compartmental tuberculosis model separately for Delhi (higher disease and infection prevalence) and Gujarat (lower disease and infection prevalence), and projected epidemiological trends to 2050 assuming no new vaccine introduction. We simulated M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios varying target ages and vaccine characteristics. We estimated cumulative cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years averted between 2025-2050 compared to the no-new-vaccine scenario and compared incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to three cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Results

M72/AS01E averted a higher proportion of tuberculosis cases than BCG-revaccination in both regions (Delhi: 16.0% vs 8.3%, Gujarat: 8.5% vs 5.1%) and had higher vaccination costs (Delhi: USD$118 million vs USD$27 million, Gujarat: US$366 million vs US$97 million). M72/AS01E in Delhi could be cost-effective, or even cost-saving, for all modelled vaccine characteristics. M72/AS01E could be cost-effective in Gujarat, unless efficacy was assumed only for those with current infection at vaccination. BCG-revaccination could be cost-effective, or cost-saving, in both regions for all modelled vaccine scenarios.

Discussion

M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in Delhi and Gujarat. Differences in impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness between vaccines and regions, were determined partly by differences in disease and infection prevalence, and demography. Age-specific regional estimates of infection prevalence could help to inform delivery strategies for vaccines that may only be effective in people with a particular infection status. Evidence on the mechanism of effect of M72/AS01E and its effectiveness in uninfected individuals, which were important drivers of impact and cost-effectiveness, particularly in Gujarat, are also key to improve estimates of population-level impact.

Silicosis, tuberculosis and silica exposure among artisanal and small-scale miners: A systematic review and modelling paper

An estimated 44 million artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM), largely based in developing economies, face significant occupational risks for respiratory diseases which have not been reviewed. We therefore aimed to review studies that describe silicosis and tuberculosis prevalence and respirable crystalline silica (RCS) exposures among ASM and use background evidence to better understand the relationship between exposures and disease outcomes. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and Embase for studies published before the 24th March 2023. Our primary outcome of interest was silicosis or tuberculosis among ASM. Secondary outcomes included measurements of respirable dust or silica, spirometry and prevalence of respiratory symptoms. A systematic review and narrative synthesis was performed and risk of bias assessed using the Joanna Briggs Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool. Logistic and Poisson regression models with predefined parameters were used to estimate silicosis prevalence and tuberculosis incidence at different distributions of cumulative silica exposure. We identified 18 eligible studies that included 29,562 miners from 13 distinct populations in 10 countries. Silicosis prevalence ranged from 11 to 37%, despite four of five studies reporting an average median duration of mining of <6 years. Tuberculosis prevalence was high; microbiologically confirmed disease ranged from 1.8 to 6.1% and clinical disease 3.0 to 17%. Average RCS intensity was very high (range 0.19-89.5 mg/m3) and respiratory symptoms were common. Our modelling demonstrated decreases in cumulative RCS are associated with reductions in silicosis and tuberculosis, with greater reductions at higher mean exposures. Despite potential selection and measurement bias, prevalence of silicosis and tuberculosis were high in the studies identified in this review. Our modelling demonstrated the greatest respiratory health benefits of reducing RCS are in those with highest exposures. ASM face a high occupational respiratory disease burden which can be reduced by low-cost and effective reductions in RCS.

Replicating superspreader dynamics with compartmental models

Infectious disease outbreaks often exhibit superspreader dynamics, where most infected people generate no, or few secondary cases, and only a small fraction of individuals are responsible for a large proportion of transmission. Although capturing this heterogeneity is critical for estimating outbreak risk and the effectiveness of group-specific interventions, it is typically neglected in compartmental models of infectious disease transmission-which constitute the most common transmission dynamic modeling framework. In this study we propose different classes of compartmental epidemic models that incorporate transmission heterogeneity, fit them to a number of real outbreak datasets, and benchmark their performance against the canonical superspreader model (i.e., the negative binomial branching process model). We find that properly constructed compartmental models can capably reproduce observed superspreader dynamics and we provide the pathogen-specific parameter settings required to do so. As a consequence, we also show that compartmental models parameterized according to a binary clinical classification have limited support.

Spectrum of TB Disease and Treatment Outcomes in a Mobile Community Based Active Case Finding Program in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia

The World Health Organization recommends using chest X-ray (CXR) in active case finding (ACF) to improve case detection. This study aimed to describe the spectrum and outcomes of TB disease diagnosed through a mobile community based ACF program in Yogyakarta. This prospective cohort study included people attending a TB ACF program in Yogyakarta between 1 January 2021 to 30 June 2022. Participants ≥10 years old underwent CXR, symptom screening, and Xpert MTB/RIF testing of sputum. Subclinical TB was defined as asymptomatic active TB, whether bacteriologically confirmed or not. Treatment outcome data were obtained from the national program TB database. 47,735 people attended the ACF program; the yield of TB disease was 0.86% (393/45,938). There were 217 symptomatic cases, of whom 72 (33.2%) were bacteriologically confirmed, and 176 asymptomatic cases, with 52 (29.5%) bacteriologically confirmed. Treatment success was 70.7% with high loss to follow up (9%) and not evaluated (17.1%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated weak evidence for lower unsuccessful outcomes in symptomatic versus subclinical TB (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.36-0.998). TB ACF programs utilizing CXR may diagnose a high proportion of subclinical TB. Linkage to care in ACF program is important to increase successful treatment outcomes.

A half-century of research on tuberculosis: Successes and challenges

Great progress has been made over the past half-century, but TB remains a formidable global health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the mechanisms of pathogenesis and necessary and sufficient conditions for protection are critical. The need for inexpensive and sensitive point-of-care diagnostic tests for earlier detection of infection and disease, shorter and less-toxic drug regimens for drug-sensitive and -resistant TB, and a more effective vaccine than BCG is immense. New and better tools, greater support for international research, collaborations, and training will be required to dramatically reduce the burden of this devastating disease which still kills 1.6 million people annually.

Association of diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use with subclinical-to-symptomatic spectrum of tuberculosis in 16 countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities.

Methods

In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679).

Findings

We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%-56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27-2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34-1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17-2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55-1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70-3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59-3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0-85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB.

Funding

None.

[Update: Diagnostics and treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis]

Molecular diagnostic tools have changed the approach to the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and associated drug-resistance substantially. PCR-based technologies allow a more rapid detection with higher diagnostic sensitivity in pulmonary and extrapulmonary specimens. However, a real point of care test, which needs minimal technical resources remains missing. Genome sequencing technologies are currently changing tuberculosis drug resistance testing, and for some questions are replacing phenotypic drug resistance testing, based on culture.New evidence on treatment for drug-sensitive tuberculosis allows shortening of treatment to 4 months, or in selected cases even to 2 months based on the use of fluoroquinolones, high dose rifamycins and newly developed TB medicines.Such developments will very likely simplify the management of tuberculosis, although prevention remains the most important pillar of any tuberculosis related public health strategy.

Incidental radiological findings during clinical tuberculosis screening in Lesotho and South Africa: a case series

BACKGROUND

Chest X-ray offers high sensitivity and acceptable specificity as a tuberculosis screening tool, but in areas with a high burden of tuberculosis, there is often a lack of radiological expertise to interpret chest X-ray. Computer-aided detection systems based on artificial intelligence are therefore increasingly used to screen for tuberculosis-related abnormalities on digital chest radiographies. The CAD4TB software has previously been shown to demonstrate high sensitivity for chest X-ray tuberculosis-related abnormalities, but it is not yet calibrated for the detection of non-tuberculosis abnormalities. When screening for tuberculosis, users of computer-aided detection need to be aware that other chest pathologies are likely to be as prevalent as, or more prevalent than, active tuberculosis. However, non--tuberculosis chest X-ray abnormalities detected during chest X-ray screening for tuberculosis remain poorly characterized in the sub-Saharan African setting, with only minimal literature.

CASE PRESENTATION

In this case series, we report on four cases with non-tuberculosis abnormalities detected on CXR in TB TRIAGE + ACCURACY (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04666311), a study in adult presumptive tuberculosis cases at health facilities in Lesotho and South Africa to determine the diagnostic accuracy of two potential tuberculosis triage tests: computer-aided detection (CAD4TB v7, Delft, the Netherlands) and C-reactive protein (Alere Afinion, USA). The four Black African participants presented with the following chest X-ray abnormalities: a 59-year-old woman with pulmonary arteriovenous malformation, a 28-year-old man with pneumothorax, a 20-year-old man with massive bronchiectasis, and a 47-year-old woman with aspergilloma.

CONCLUSIONS

Solely using chest X-ray computer-aided detection systems based on artificial intelligence as a tuberculosis screening strategy in sub-Saharan Africa comes with benefits, but also risks. Due to the limitation of CAD4TB for non-tuberculosis-abnormality identification, the computer-aided detection software may miss significant chest X-ray abnormalities that require treatment, as exemplified in our four cases. Increased data collection, characterization of non-tuberculosis anomalies and research on the implications of these diseases for individuals and health systems in sub-Saharan Africa is needed to help improve existing artificial intelligence software programs and their use in countries with high tuberculosis burden.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination

BACKGROUND

India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies.

METHODS

We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives.

RESULTS

M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease.

CONCLUSIONS

M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

Measuring indirect transmission-reducing effects in tuberculosis vaccine efficacy trials: why and how?

Tuberculosis is the leading bacterial cause of death globally. In 2021, 10·6 million people developed symptomatic tuberculosis and 1·6 million died. Seven promising vaccine candidates that aim to prevent tuberculosis disease in adolescents and adults are currently in late-stage clinical trials. Conventional phase 3 trials provide information on the direct protection conferred against infection or disease in vaccinated individuals, but they tell us little about possible indirect (ie, transmission-reducing) effects that afford protection to unvaccinated individuals. As a result, proposed phase 3 trial designs will not provide key information about the overall effect of introducing a vaccine programme. Information on the potential for indirect effects can be crucial for policy makers deciding whether and how to introduce tuberculosis vaccines into immunisation programmes. We describe the rationale for measuring indirect effects, in addition to direct effects, of tuberculosis vaccine candidates in pivotal trials and lay out several options for incorporating their measurement into phase 3 trial designs.

Advanced HIV disease: A review of diagnostic and prophylactic strategies

BACKGROUND

Despite expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and the rollout of the World Health Organization's (WHO) 'test-and-treat' strategy, the proportion of people with HIV (PWH) presenting with advanced HIV disease (AHD) remains unchanged at approximately 30%. Fifty percent of persons with AHD report prior engagement to care. ART failure and insufficient retention in HIV care are major causes of AHD. People living with AHD are at high risk for opportunistic infections and death. In 2017, the WHO published guidelines for the management of AHD that included a comprehensive package of care for screening and prophylaxis of major opportunistic infections (OIs). In the interim, ART regimens have evolved: integrase inhibitors are first-line therapy globally, and the diagnostic landscape is evolving. The objective of this review is to highlight novel point-of-care (POC) diagnostics and treatment strategies that can facilitate OI screening and prophylaxis for persons with AHD.

METHODS

We reviewed the WHO guidelines for recommendations for persons with AHD. We summarized the scientific literature on current and emerging diagnostics, along with emerging treatment strategies for persons with AHD. We also highlight the key research and implementation gaps together with potential solutions.

RESULTS

While POC CD4 testing is being rolled out in order to identify persons with AHD, this alone is insufficient; implementation of the Visitect CD4 platform has been challenging given operational and test interpretation issues. Numerous non-sputum POC TB diagnostics are being evaluated, many with limited sensitivity. Though imperfect, these tests are designed to provide rapid results (within hours) and are relatively affordable for resource-poor settings. While novel POC diagnostics are being developed for cryptococcal infection, histoplasmosis and talaromycosis, implementation science studies are urgently needed to understand the clinical benefit of these tests in the routine care.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite progress with HIV treatment and prevention, a persistent 20%-30% of PWH present to care with AHD. Unfortunately, these persons with AHD continue to carry the burden of HIV-related morbidity and mortality. Investment in the development of additional POC or near-bedside CD4 platforms is urgently needed. Implementation of POC diagnostics theoretically could improve HIV retention in care and thereby reduce mortality by overcoming delays in laboratory testing and providing patients and healthcare workers with timely same-day results. However, in real-world scenarios, people with AHD have multiple comorbidities and imperfect follow-up. Pragmatic clinical trials are needed to understand whether these POC diagnostics can facilitate timely diagnosis and treatment, thereby improving clinical outcomes such as HIV retention in care.

Prevalence and incidence of symptomatic pulmonary tuberculosis based on repeated population screening in a district in Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

In Ethiopia, one-third of the estimated tuberculosis cases are not detected or reported. Incidence estimates are inaccurate and rarely measured directly. Assessing the 'real' incidence under programme conditions is useful to understand the situation. This study aimed to measure the prevalence and incidence of symptomatic pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) during 1 year in the adult population of Dale in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

A prospective population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Every household in Dale was visited three times at 4-month intervals.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged ≥15 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Microscopy smear positive PTB (PTB s+), bacteriologically confirmed PTB (PTB b+) by microscopy, GeneXpert, or culture and clinically diagnosed PTB (PTB c+).

RESULTS

Among 136 181 individuals, 2052 had presumptive TB (persistent cough for 14 days or more with or without haemoptysis, weight loss, fever, night sweats, chest pain or difficulty breathing), in the first round of household visits including 93 with PTB s+, 98 with PTB b+ and 24 with PTB c+; adding those with PTB who were already on treatment, the total number of PTB was 201, and the prevalence was 147 (95% CI: 127 to 168)/100 000 population. Out of all patients with PTB, the proportion detected by symptom screening was in PTB s+ 65%, PTB b+ 67% and PTB c+44%. During 96 388 person-years follow-up, 1909 had presumptive TB, 320 had PTB and the total incidence of PTB was 332 (95% CI: 297 to 370)/100 000 person-years, while the incidence of PTB s+, PTB b+ and PTB c+ was 230 (95% CI: 201 to 262), 263 (95% CI: 232 to 297) and 68 (95% CI: 53 to 86)/100 000 person-years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of symptomatic sputum smear-positive TB was still high, only one-third of prevalent PTB cases notified and the incidence rate highest in the age group 25-34 years, indicating ongoing transmission. Finding missing people with TB through repeated symptom screening can contribute to reducing transmission.