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Ravindra K, Malik VS, Padhi BK, Goel S, Gupta M. Asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 among clusters: systematic review and meta-analysis. Public Health 2022; 203:100-109. [PMID: 35038628 PMCID: PMC8654597 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Revised: 09/08/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Countries throughout the world are experiencing COVID-19 viral load in their populations, leading to potential transmission and infectivity of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The current systematic review and meta-analysis aims to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection and transmission reported in family clusters, adults, children and health care workers, globally. STUDY DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS An online literature search of PubMed, Google Scholar, medRixv and BioRixv was performed using standard Boolean operators and included studies published up to 17 August 2021. For the systematic review, case reports, short communications and retrospective studies were included to ensure sufficient asymptomatic COVID-19 transmission data were reported. For the quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis), participant data from a collection of cohort studies focusing on groups of familial clusters, adults, children and health care workers were included. Inconsistency among studies was assessed using I2 statistics. The data synthesis was computed using the STATA 16.0 software. RESULTS This study showed asymptomatic transmission among familial clusters, adults, children and health care workers of 15.72%, 29.48%, 24.09% and 0%, respectively. Overall, asymptomatic transmission was 24.51% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.38, 36.02) among all studied population groups, with a heterogeneity of I2 = 95.30% (P < 0.001). No heterogeneity was seen in the population subgroups of children and health care workers. The risk of bias in all included studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. CONCLUSIONS For minimising the spread of COVID-19 within the community, this study found that following the screening of asymptomatic cases and their close contacts for chest CT scan (for symptomatic patients), even after negative nucleic acid testing, it is essential to perform a rigorous epidemiological history, early isolation, social distancing and an increased quarantine period (a minimum of 14-28 days). This systematic review and meta-analysis supports the notion of asymptomatic COVID-19 infection and person-to-person transmission and suggests that this is dependent on the varying viral incubation period among individuals. Children, especially those of school age (i.e. <18 years), need to be monitored carefully and follow mitigation strategies (e.g. social distancing, hand hygiene, wearing face masks) to prevent asymptomatic community transmission of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Ravindra
- Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India.
| | - V S Malik
- Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India; Department of Pediatrics, Advanced Pediatric Centre, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - B K Padhi
- Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - S Goel
- Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - M Gupta
- Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
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An invasive infection caused by the thermophilic mold Talaromyces thermophilus. Infection 2021; 49:1347-1353. [PMID: 34195950 PMCID: PMC8613165 DOI: 10.1007/s15010-021-01648-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Accepted: 06/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Background Increasing incidence of invasive infections caused by rare fungi was observed over the recent years. Case Here, we describe the first reported case of an infection caused by the thermophilic mold Talaromyces thermophilus. Cultivation and, hence, identification of this fastidious organism is challenging since standard incubation conditions are not sufficient. Retrospective analysis of patient samples and in vitro experiments demonstrated that testing for fungal antigens, i.e., the cell wall components galactomannan and β-1,3-d-glucan, is a promising tool.
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Berruga-Fernández T, Robesyn E, Korhonen T, Penttinen P, Jansa JM. Risk Assessment for the Transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-Cov) on Aircraft: A Systematic Review. Epidemiol Infect 2021; 149:1-51. [PMID: 34108058 PMCID: PMC8220025 DOI: 10.1017/s095026882100131x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2020] [Revised: 04/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes a potentially fatal respiratory disease. Although it is most common in the Arabian Peninsula, it has been exported to 17 countries outside the Middle East, mostly through air travel. The Risk Assessment Guidelines for Infectious Diseases transmitted on Aircraft (RAGIDA) advise authorities on measures to take when an infected individual travelled by air. The aim of this systematic review was to gather all available information on documented MERS-CoV cases that had travelled by air, to update RAGIDA. The databases used were PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Global Index Medicus; Google was searched for grey literature and hand searching was performed on the EU Early Warning and Response System and the WHO Disease Outbreak News. Forty-seven records were identified, describing 21 cases of MERS that had travelled on 31 flights. Contact tracing was performed for 17 cases. Most countries traced passengers sitting in the same row and the two rows in front and behind the case. Only one country decided to trace all passengers and crew. No cases of in-flight transmission were observed; thus, considering the resources it requires, a conservative approach may be appropriate when contact tracing passengers and crew where a case of MERS has travelled by air.
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Affiliation(s)
- T. Berruga-Fernández
- Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology (IMBIM), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - E. Robesyn
- Emergency Preparedness and Response Support, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - T. Korhonen
- Emerging, Food- and Vector-Borne Diseases, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - P. Penttinen
- Vaccine Preventable Diseases and Immunisation, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - J. M. Jansa
- Emergency Preparedness and Response Support, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
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Madewell ZJ, Yang Y, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Dean NE. Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Netw Open 2020; 3:e2031756. [PMID: 33315116 PMCID: PMC7737089 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.31756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 493] [Impact Index Per Article: 123.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Importance Crowded indoor environments, such as households, are high-risk settings for the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Objectives To examine evidence for household transmission of SARS-CoV-2, disaggregated by several covariates, and to compare it with other coronaviruses. Data Source PubMed, searched through October 19, 2020. Search terms included SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 with secondary attack rate, household, close contacts, contact transmission, contact attack rate, or family transmission. Study Selection All articles with original data for estimating household secondary attack rate were included. Case reports focusing on individual households and studies of close contacts that did not report secondary attack rates for household members were excluded. Data Extraction and Synthesis Meta-analyses were done using a restricted maximum-likelihood estimator model to yield a point estimate and 95% CI for secondary attack rate for each subgroup analyzed, with a random effect for each study. To make comparisons across exposure types, study was treated as a random effect, and exposure type was a fixed moderator. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed. Main Outcomes and Measures Secondary attack rate for SARS-CoV-2, disaggregated by covariates (ie, household or family contact, index case symptom status, adult or child contacts, contact sex, relationship to index case, adult or child index cases, index case sex, number of contacts in household) and for other coronaviruses. Results A total of 54 relevant studies with 77 758 participants reporting household secondary transmission were identified. Estimated household secondary attack rate was 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%), higher than secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV (7.5%; 95% CI, 4.8%-10.7%) and MERS-CoV (4.7%; 95% CI, 0.9%-10.7%). Household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) than from asymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%), to adult contacts (28.3%; 95% CI, 20.2%-37.1%) than to child contacts (16.8%; 95% CI, 12.3%-21.7%), to spouses (37.8%; 95% CI, 25.8%-50.5%) than to other family contacts (17.8%; 95% CI, 11.7%-24.8%), and in households with 1 contact (41.5%; 95% CI, 31.7%-51.7%) than in households with 3 or more contacts (22.8%; 95% CI, 13.6%-33.5%). Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this study suggest that given that individuals with suspected or confirmed infections are being referred to isolate at home, households will continue to be a significant venue for transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville
| | - Ira M. Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville
| | - M. Elizabeth Halloran
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Natalie E. Dean
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville
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High MERS-CoV seropositivity associated with camel herd profile, husbandry practices and household socio-demographic characteristics in Northern Kenya. Epidemiol Infect 2020; 148:e292. [PMID: 33256863 PMCID: PMC7737118 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820002939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite high exposure to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), the predictors for seropositivity in the context of husbandry practices for camels in Eastern Africa are not well understood. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to describe the camel herd profile and determine the factors associated with MERS-CoV seropositivity in Northern Kenya. We enrolled 29 camel-owning households and administered questionnaires to collect herd and household data. Serum samples collected from 493 randomly selected camels were tested for anti-MERS-CoV antibodies using a microneutralisation assay, and regression analysis used to correlate herd and household characteristics with camel seropositivity. Households reared camels (median = 23 camels and IQR 16–56), and at least one other livestock species in two distinct herds; a home herd kept near homesteads, and a range/fora herd that resided far from the homestead. The overall MERS-CoV IgG seropositivity was 76.3%, with no statistically significant difference between home and fora herds. Significant predictors for seropositivity (P ⩽ 0.05) included camels 6–10 years old (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–5.2), herds with ⩾25 camels (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2–3.4) and camels from Gabra community (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2–4.2). These results suggest high levels of virus transmission among camels, with potential for human infection.
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Dai Z, Zeng D, Cui D, Wang D, Feng Y, Shi Y, Zhao L, Xu J, Guo W, Yang Y, Zhao X, Li D, Zheng Y, Wang A, Wu M, Song S, Lu H. Prediction of COVID-19 Patients at High Risk of Progression to Severe Disease. Front Public Health 2020; 8:574915. [PMID: 33330318 PMCID: PMC7732480 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.574915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2020] [Accepted: 10/19/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
In order to develop a novel scoring model for the prediction of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients at high risk of severe disease, we retrospectively studied 419 patients from five hospitals in Shanghai, Hubei, and Jiangsu Provinces from January 22 to March 30, 2020. Multivariate Cox regression and orthogonal projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) were both used to identify high-risk factors for disease severity in COVID-19 patients. The prediction model was developed based on four high-risk factors. Multivariate analysis showed that comorbidity [hazard ratio (HR) 3.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96–5.11], albumin (ALB) level (HR 3.67, 95% CI 1.91–7.02), C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR 3.16, 95% CI 1.68–5.96), and age ≥60 years (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.43–3.73) were independent risk factors for disease severity in COVID-19 patients. OPLS-DA identified that the top five influencing parameters for COVID-19 severity were CRP, ALB, age ≥60 years, comorbidity, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level. When incorporating the above four factors, the nomogram had a good concordance index of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83–0.89) and had an optimal agreement between the predictive nomogram and the actual observation with a slope of 0.95 (R2 = 0.89) in the 7-day prediction and 0.96 (R2 = 0.92) in the 14-day prediction after 1,000 bootstrap sampling. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the COVID-19-American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81–0.90). According to the probability of severity, the model divided the patients into three groups: low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. The COVID-19-AACC model is an effective method for clinicians to screen patients at high risk of severe disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenyu Dai
- Department of Invasive Technology, Yancheng Clinical Medical College of Nanjing Medical University, Yancheng, China
| | - Dong Zeng
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Dawei Cui
- Department of Blood Transfusion, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Dawei Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease, The Second People's Hospital of Yancheng City, Yancheng, China
| | - Yanling Feng
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuhan Shi
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Liangping Zhao
- Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Tongji Medical College, Wuhan Central Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Jingjing Xu
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenjuan Guo
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuexiang Yang
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xinguo Zhao
- Department of Respiration, The Fifth People's Hospital of Wuxi, Wuxi, China
| | - Duoduo Li
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ye Zheng
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ao Wang
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Minmin Wu
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Shu Song
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hongzhou Lu
- Department of Infectious Disease and Immunology, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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7
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Duda-Chodak A, Lukasiewicz M, Zięć G, Florkiewicz A, Filipiak-Florkiewicz A. Covid-19 pandemic and food: Present knowledge, risks, consumers fears and safety. Trends Food Sci Technol 2020; 105:145-160. [PMID: 32921922 PMCID: PMC7480472 DOI: 10.1016/j.tifs.2020.08.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2020] [Revised: 08/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that has paralyzed social life and the economy around the world since the end of 2019, and which has so far killed nearly 600,000 people. The rapidity of its spread and the lack of detailed research on the course and methods of transmission significantly impede both its eradication and prevention. SCOPE AND APPROACH Due to the high transmission rate and fatality resulting from COVID-19 disease, the paper focuses on analyzing the current state of knowledge about SARS-CoV-2 as well as its potential connection with food as a source of pathogen and infection. KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS There is currently no evidence (scientific publications, WHO, EFSA etc.) that COVID-19 disease can spread directly through food and the human digestive system. However, according to the hypothesis regarding the primary transmission of the virus, the source of which was food of animal origin (meat of wild animals), as well as the fact that food is a basic necessity for humans, it is worth emphasizing that food can, if not directly, be a carrier of the virus. Particular attention should be paid to this indirect pathway when considering the potential for the spread of an epidemic and the development of prevention principles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleksandra Duda-Chodak
- Faculty of Food Technology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, ul. Balicka 122, PL30-149, Krakow, Poland
| | - Marcin Lukasiewicz
- Faculty of Food Technology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, ul. Balicka 122, PL30-149, Krakow, Poland
| | - Gabriela Zięć
- Faculty of Food Technology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, ul. Balicka 122, PL30-149, Krakow, Poland
| | - Adam Florkiewicz
- Faculty of Food Technology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, ul. Balicka 122, PL30-149, Krakow, Poland
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Huang AT, Garcia-Carreras B, Hitchings MDT, Yang B, Katzelnick LC, Rattigan SM, Borgert BA, Moreno CA, Solomon BD, Trimmer-Smith L, Etienne V, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Salje H, Burke DS, Wesolowski A, Cummings DAT. A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: kinetics, correlates of protection, and association with severity. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4704. [PMID: 32943637 PMCID: PMC7499300 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18450-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 615] [Impact Index Per Article: 153.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Many public health responses and modeled scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks caused by SARS-CoV-2 assume that infection results in an immune response that protects individuals from future infections or illness for some amount of time. The presence or absence of protective immunity due to infection or vaccination (when available) will affect future transmission and illness severity. Here, we review the scientific literature on antibody immunity to coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 as well as the related SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs). We reviewed 2,452 abstracts and identified 491 manuscripts relevant to 5 areas of focus: 1) antibody kinetics, 2) correlates of protection, 3) immunopathogenesis, 4) antigenic diversity and cross-reactivity, and 5) population seroprevalence. While further studies of SARS-CoV-2 are necessary to determine immune responses, evidence from other coronaviruses can provide clues and guide future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angkana T Huang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Bernardo Garcia-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Matt D T Hitchings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Bingyi Yang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Leah C Katzelnick
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Susan M Rattigan
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Brooke A Borgert
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Carlos A Moreno
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Benjamin D Solomon
- National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Luke Trimmer-Smith
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Veronique Etienne
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Department of Comparative, Diagnostic & Population Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Donald S Burke
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
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Madewell ZJ, Yang Y, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Dean NE. Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2020:2020.07.29.20164590. [PMID: 32766596 PMCID: PMC7402051 DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.29.20164590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is spread by direct, indirect, or close contact with infected people via infected respiratory droplets or saliva. Crowded indoor environments with sustained close contact and conversations are a particularly high-risk setting. METHODS We performed a meta-analysis through July 29, 2020 of SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rate (SAR), disaggregating by several covariates (contact type, symptom status, adult/child contacts, contact sex, relationship to index case, index case sex, number of contacts in household, coronavirus). FINDINGS We identified 40 relevant published studies that report household secondary transmission. The estimated overall household SAR was 18.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.4%-22.2%), which is higher than previously observed SARs for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. We observed that household SARs were significantly higher from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic index cases, to adult contacts than children contacts, to spouses than other family contacts, and in households with one contact than households with three or more contacts. INTERPRETATION To prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, people are being asked to stay at home worldwide. With suspected or confirmed infections referred to isolate at home, household transmission will continue to be a significant source of transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
| | - Ira M. Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
| | - M. Elizabeth Halloran
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | - Natalie E. Dean
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
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Grant R, Malik MR, Elkholy A, Van Kerkhove MD. A Review of Asymptomatic and Subclinical Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infections. Epidemiol Rev 2020; 41:69-81. [PMID: 31781765 PMCID: PMC7108493 DOI: 10.1093/epirev/mxz009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2018] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 09/09/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) since 2012 has been largely characterized by recurrent zoonotic spillover from dromedary camels followed by limited human-to-human transmission, predominantly in health-care settings. The full extent of infection of MERS-CoV is not clear, nor is the extent and/or role of asymptomatic infections in transmission. We conducted a review of molecular and serological investigations through PubMed and EMBASE from September 2012 to November 15, 2018, to measure subclinical or asymptomatic MERS-CoV infection within and outside of health-care settings. We performed retrospective analysis of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infections reported to the World Health Organization to November 27, 2018, to summarize what is known about asymptomatic infections identified through national surveillance systems. We identified 23 studies reporting evidence of MERS-CoV infection outside of health-care settings, mainly of camel workers, with seroprevalence ranges of 0%–67% depending on the study location. We identified 20 studies in health-care settings of health-care worker (HCW) and family contacts, of which 11 documented molecular evidence of MERS-CoV infection among asymptomatic contacts. Since 2012, 298 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported as asymptomatic to the World Health Organization, 164 of whom were HCWs. The potential to transmit MERS-CoV to others has been demonstrated in viral-shedding studies of asymptomatic MERS infections. Our results highlight the possibility for onward transmission of MERS-CoV from asymptomatic individuals. Screening of HCW contacts of patients with confirmed MERS-CoV is currently recommended, but systematic screening of non-HCW contacts outside of health-care facilities should be encouraged.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Maria D Van Kerkhove
- Correspondence to Maria D. Van Kerkhove, PhD, Department of Infectious Hazards Management, Health Emergencies Program, World Health Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland (e-mail: )
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11
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Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2020; 20:1141-1150. [PMID: 32562601 PMCID: PMC7529929 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30471-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 307] [Impact Index Per Article: 76.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2020] [Revised: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Background As of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. Findings Between Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8–15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3–21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio [OR] 0·23 [95% CI 0·11–0·46]) and among adults aged 20–59 years (OR 0·64 [95% CI 0·43–0·97]). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·27–1·38]). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41–0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49–0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives. Interpretation SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period. Funding US National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.
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Huang AT, Garcia-Carreras B, Hitchings MD, Yang B, Katzelnick LC, Rattigan SM, Borgert BA, Moreno CA, Solomon BD, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Salje H, Burke D, Wesolowski A, Cummings DA. A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: antibody kinetics, correlates of protection, and association of antibody responses with severity of disease. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2020:2020.04.14.20065771. [PMID: 32511434 PMCID: PMC7217088 DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.14.20065771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 122] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
The duration and nature of immunity generated in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown. Many public health responses and modeled scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks caused by SARSCoV-2 assume that infection results in an immune response that protects individuals from future infections or illness for some amount of time. The timescale of protection is a critical determinant of the future impact of the pathogen. The presence or absence of protective immunity due to infection or vaccination (when available) will affect future transmission and illness severity. The dynamics of immunity and nature of protection are relevant to discussions surrounding therapeutic use of convalescent sera as well as efforts to identify individuals with protective immunity. Here, we review the scientific literature on antibody immunity to coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 as well as the related SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and human endemic coronaviruses (HCoVs). We reviewed 1281 abstracts and identified 322 manuscripts relevant to 5 areas of focus: 1) antibody kinetics, 2) correlates of protection, 3) immunopathogenesis, 4) antigenic diversity and cross-reactivity, and 5) population seroprevalence. While studies of SARS-CoV-2 are necessary to determine immune responses to it, evidence from other coronaviruses can provide clues and guide future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Bernardo Garcia-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Matt D.T. Hitchings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Bingyi Yang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Leah C. Katzelnick
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Susan M. Rattigan
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Brooke A. Borgert
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Carlos A. Moreno
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Benjamin D. Solomon
- National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health, USA
| | | | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Donald Burke
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, USA
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
| | - Derek A.T. Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
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Al Awaidy ST, Al Maqbali AA, Omer I, Al Mukhaini S, Al Risi MA, Al Maqbali MS, Al Reesi A, Al Busaidi M, Al Hashmi FH, Al Maqbali TK, Vaidya V, Al Risi ESA, Al Maqbali TK, Rashid AA, Al Beloshi MAH, Etemadi A, Khamis F. The first clusters of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Oman: Time to act. J Infect Public Health 2020; 13:679-686. [PMID: 32307315 PMCID: PMC7162632 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2020] [Accepted: 03/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), is an emerging infectious disease of growing global importance. This review describes the latest MERS-CoV clusters and the first cases of nosocomial transmission within health care facilities in Oman. We have highlighted lessons learned and proposed steps to prevent healthcare-associated infections. METHODS A descriptive analysis of MERS-CoV cases was conducted between January 23 and February 16, 2019. The data from officials and other published sources used. RESULTS Thirteen laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV were reported from three simultaneous clusters from two governorates without an epidemiological link between the clusters. Two clusters were reported from North Al Batinah Governorate, with nine cases (69%) and 1 cluster from South Ash Sharqiyah Governorate with four cases (31%). In total, four deaths were reported (case fatality rate 31%). Four cases (31%) reported were household contacts from the first cluster, 3 (23%) were nosocomial transmission in health care facilities (two for first and one from the second cluster) and 7 (54%) were community-acquired cases. CONCLUSIONS The first local clusters of MERS-CoV reported with evidence suggestive of healthcare and household-associated transmission. Early diagnosis and strict implementation of infection control measures remain fundamental in preventing and managing MERS-CoV infection.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Iyad Omer
- Directorate Health Services, South Ash Sharqiyah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Oman
| | - Suad Al Mukhaini
- Sur Hospital, South ASharqiyah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Oman
| | | | | | - Ali Al Reesi
- Sohar Hospital, North Al Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Oman
| | | | | | | | - Vidyanand Vaidya
- Directorate Health Services, North Al Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Oman
| | | | | | | | | | - Arash Etemadi
- Sohar Hospital, North Al Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Oman
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Jing QL, Liu MJ, Yuan J, Zhang ZB, Zhang AR, Dean NE, Luo L, Ma M, Longini I, Kenah E, Lu Y, Ma Y, Jalali N, Fang LQ, Yang ZC, Yang Y. Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2020. [PMID: 32511590 PMCID: PMC7276017 DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive. METHODS Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. RESULTS A total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly (≥60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week. CONCLUSION SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qin-Long Jing
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Ming-Jin Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
| | - Jun Yuan
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Zhou-Bin Zhang
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - An-Ran Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, P. R. China
| | - Natalie E Dean
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
| | - Lei Luo
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Mengmeng Ma
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Ira Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
| | - Eben Kenah
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, U. S. A
| | - Ying Lu
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Yu Ma
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Neda Jalali
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
| | - Li-Qun Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Zhi-Cong Yang
- Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
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Al-Tawfiq JA, Gautret P. Asymptomatic Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection: Extent and implications for infection control: A systematic review. Travel Med Infect Dis 2018; 27:27-32. [PMID: 30550839 PMCID: PMC7110966 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2018.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2018] [Revised: 12/07/2018] [Accepted: 12/10/2018] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
Background The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged in 2012 and attracted an international attention as the virus caused multiple healthcare associated outbreaks. There are reports of the role of asymptomatic individuals in the transmission of MERS-CoV, however, the exact role is not known. Method The MEDLINE/PubMed and Scopus databases were searched for relevant papers published till August 2018 describing asymptomatic MERS-CoV infection. Results A total of 10 papers were retrieved and included in the final analysis and review. The extent of asymptomatic MERS infection had increased with change in the policy of testing asymptomatic contacts. In early cases in April 2012–October 2013, 12.5% were asymptomatic among 144 PCR laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases while in 2014 the proportion rose to 25.1% among 255 confirmed cases. The proportion of asymptomatic cases reported among pediatric confirmed MERS-CoV cases were higher (41.9%–81.8%). Overall, the detection rate of MERS infection among asymptomatic contacts was 1-3.9% in studies included in this review. Asymptomatic individuals were less likely to have underlying condition compared to fatal cases. Of particular interest is that most of the identified pediatric cases were asymptomatic with no clear explanation. Conclusions The proportion of asymptomatic MERS cases were detected with increasing frequency as the disease progressed overtime. Those patients were less likely to have comorbid disease and may contribute to the transmission of the virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq
- Specialty Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins Aramco Healthcare, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia; Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA; Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Philippe Gautret
- Aix Marseille Univ, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille (AP-HM), Service de Santé des Armées (SSA), Microbes Vecteurs Infections Tropicales et Méditerranéennes (VITROME), Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire-Méditerranée Infection (IHU-Méditerranée Infection), Marseille, France
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