The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Clinical features and risk factors analysis for poor outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia in children: a nomogram prediction model

Background

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1-59 months. The early prediction of poor outcomes (PO) is of critical concern. This study aimed to explore the risk factors relating to PO in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and build a PO-predictive nomogram model for children with SCAP.

Methods

We retrospectively identified 300 Chinese pediatric patients diagnosed with SCAP who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from August 1, 2018, to October 31, 2021. Children were divided into the PO and the non-PO groups. The occurrence of PO was designated as the dependent variable. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors of PO. A nomogram model was constructed from the multivariate logistic regression analysis and internally validated for model discrimination and calibration. The performance of the nomogram was estimated using the concordance index (C-index).

Results

According to the efficacy evaluation criteria, 56 of 300 children demonstrated PO. The multivariate logistic regression analysis resulted in the following independent risk factors for PO: co-morbidity (OR: 8.032, 95% CI: 3.556-18.140, P < 0.0001), requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (OR: 7.081, 95% CI: 2.250-22.282, P = 0.001), and ALB < 35 g/L (OR: 3.203, 95% CI: 1.151-8.912, P = 0.026). Results of the internal validation confirmed that the model provided good discrimination (concordance index [C-index], 0.876 [95% CI: 0.828-0.925]). The calibration plots in the nomogram model were of high quality.

Conclusion

The nomogram facilitated accurate prediction of PO in children diagnosed with SCAP and could be helpful for clinical decision-making.

Clinical algorithm reduces antibiotic use among children presenting with respiratory symptoms to hospital in central Vietnam

OBJECTIVE

To assess the safety and utility of a pragmatic clinical algorithm to guide rational antibiotic use in children presenting with respiratory infection.

METHODS

The effect of an algorithm to guide the management of young (< 5 years) children presenting with respiratory symptoms to the Da Nang Hospital for Women and Children, Vietnam, was evaluated in a before-after intervention analysis. The main outcome was reduction in antibiotic use, with monitoring of potential harm resulting from reduced antibiotic use. The intervention comprised a single training session of physicians in the use of an algorithm informed by local evidence; developed during a previous prospective observational study. The evaluation was performed one month after the training.

RESULTS

Of the 1290 children evaluated before the intervention, 102 (7.9%) were admitted to hospital and 556/1188 (46.8%) were sent home with antibiotics. Due to COVID-19, only 166 children were evaluated after the intervention of whom 14 (8.4%) were admitted to hospital and 54/152 (35.5%) were sent home with antibiotics. Antibiotic use was reduced (from 46.8% to 35.5%; p = 0.009) after clinician training, but adequate comparison was compromised. The reduction was most pronounced in children with wheeze or runny nose and no fever, or a normal chest radiograph, where antibiotic use declined from 46.7% to 28.8% (p < 0.0001). The frequency of repeat presentation to hospital was similar between the two study periods (141/1188; 11.9% before and 10/152; 6.6% after; p = 0.10). No child represented with serious disease after being sent home without antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a reduction in antibiotic use in young children with a respiratory infection after physician training in the use of a simple evidence-based management algorithm. However, the study was severely impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, requiring further evaluation to confirm the observed effect.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Identifying modifiable risk factors for mortality in children aged 1-59 months admitted with WHO-defined severe pneumonia: a single-centre observational cohort study from rural Malawi

OBJECTIVE

Although HIV infection, severe malnutrition and hypoxaemia are associated with high mortality in children with WHO-defined severe pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa, many do not have these conditions and yet mortality remains elevated compared with high-resource settings. Further stratifying mortality risk for children without these conditions could permit more strategic resource utilisation and improved outcomes. We therefore evaluated associations between mortality and clinical characteristics not currently recognised by the WHO as high risk among children in Malawi with severe pneumonia but without HIV (including exposure), severe malnutrition and hypoxaemia.

METHODS

Between May 2016 and March 2018, we conducted a prospective observational study alongside a randomised controlled trial (CPAP IMPACT) at Salima District Hospital in Malawi. Children aged 1-59 months hospitalised with WHO-defined severe pneumonia without severe malnutrition, HIV and hypoxaemia were enrolled. Study staff assessed children at admission and ascertained hospital outcomes. We compared group characteristics using Student's t-test, rank-sum test, χ² test or Fisher's exact test as appropriate.

RESULTS

Among 884 participants, grunting (10/112 (8.9%) vs 11/771 (1.4%)), stridor (2/14 (14.2%) vs 19/870 (2.1%)), haemoglobin <50 g/L (3/27 (11.1%) vs 18/857 (2.1%)) and malaria (11/204 (5.3%) vs 10/673 (1.4%)) were associated with mortality compared with children without these characteristics. Children who survived had a 22 g/L higher mean haemoglobin and 0.7 cm higher mean mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) than those who died.

CONCLUSION

In this single-centre study, our analysis identifies potentially modifiable risk factors for mortality among hospitalised Malawian children with severe pneumonia: specific signs of respiratory distress (grunting, stridor), haemoglobin <50 g/L and malaria infection. Significant differences in mean haemoglobin and MUAC were observed between those who survived and those who died. These factors could further stratify mortality risk among hospitalised Malawian children with severe pneumonia lacking recognised high-risk conditions.

Clinical pneumonia in the hospitalised child in Malawi in the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era: a prospective hospital-based observational study

OBJECTIVE

Assess characteristics of clinical pneumonia after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), by HIV exposure status, in children hospitalised in a governmental hospital in Malawi.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated 1139 children ≤5 years old hospitalised with clinical pneumonia: 101 HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) and 1038 HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU). Median age was 11 months (IQR 6-20), 59% were male, median mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was 14 cm (IQR 13-15) and mean weight-for-height z score was -0.7 (±2.5). The highest Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) scores were allocated to 10.4% of the overall cohort. Only 45.7% had fever, and 37.2% had at least one danger sign at presentation. The most common clinical features were crackles (54.7%), nasal flaring (53.5%) and lower chest wall indrawing (53.2%). Compared with HUU, HEU children were significantly younger (9 months vs 11 months), with lower mean birth weight (2.8 kg vs 3.0 kg) and MUAC (13.6 cm vs 14.0 cm), had higher prevalence of vomiting (32.7% vs 22.0%), tachypnoea (68.4% vs 49.8%) and highest RISC scores (20.0% vs 9.4%). Five children died (0.4%). However, clinical outcomes were similar for both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this post-PCV setting where prevalence of HIV and malnutrition is high, children hospitalised fulfilling the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness criteria for clinical pneumonia present with heterogeneous features. These vary by HIV exposure status but this does not influence either the frequency of danger signs or mortality. The poor performance of available severity scores in this population and the absence of more specific diagnostics hinder appropriate antimicrobial stewardship and the rational application of other interventions.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.

Defining Pneumonia Severity in Children: A Delphi Study

OBJECTIVES

Although community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infections in children, no standardized risk classification exists to guide management. The objective of this study was to develop expert consensus for factors associated with various degrees of disease severity in pediatric CAP.

METHODS

Using a web-based classical Delphi process, a multidisciplinary panel of 10 childhood pneumonia experts rated the degree of severity (mild, moderate, or severe) of clinical, radiographic, and laboratory factors, as well as outcomes relevant to pediatric pneumonia. Round 1 was open-ended, with panelists freely stating all characteristics they felt determined pneumonia severity. In rounds 2 to 4, panelists used a 9-point Likert scale (1-3, mild; 4-6, moderate; 7-9, severe) to rate severity for each item. Consensus was defined as 70% or greater agreement in ranking mild, moderate, or severe.

RESULTS

Panelists identified 318 factors or outcomes in round 1; the panel reached consensus for 286 (90%). The majority of items without consensus straddled levels of severity (eg, mild-moderate). Notable clinical factors with consensus included age, oxygen saturation, age-based respiratory rate, and gestational age. Severity classification consensus was also reached for specific imaging and laboratory findings. Need for and duration of hospitalization, supplemental oxygen/respiratory support, and intravenous fluids/medications were considered important outcomes in classifying severity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents factors deemed important for risk stratification in pediatric CAP by consensus of a multidisciplinary expert panel. This initial step toward identifying and formalizing severity criteria for CAP informs critical knowledge gaps and can be leveraged in future development of clinically meaningful risk stratification scores.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores.

METHODS

We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules.

RESULTS

The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

Factors associated with serious outcomes of pneumonia among children in a birth cohort in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Child hospitalization for pneumonia remains common, and pneumonia is a major cause of child mortality. Early identification of clinical factors associated with serious outcomes may help target risk-mitigation strategies.

METHODS

Pneumonia cases occurring in the Drakenstein Child Health Study, a prospective birth cohort outside Cape Town, South Africa were analysed, and factors associated with serious outcomes of pneumonia were identified. Pregnant women were enrolled antenatally, followed through pregnancy, and mother-child pairs from birth to 2 years. Active surveillance for pneumonia was done. Children hospitalized with pneumonia had chest radiography and blood drawn for inflammatory markers; course, outcome and duration of hospitalization were investigated. Serious outcomes were defined as in-hospital mortality or admission to intensive care unit (ICU). Prolonged hospitalization was also explored as a proxy for severity. Features associated with serious outcomes or prolonged hospitalization were analysed using modified Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Among 1143 live born infants, there were 174 hospitalized pneumonia events in 133 children under 2 years. Three children (1.7%) died, 14 (8%) required ICU admission for respiratory support. In modified Poisson regression, age < 2 months, preterm birth, or hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92%) were significantly associated with serious outcomes. Preterm birth, low birth weight, HIV exposure, stunting, or underweight-for-age (UWFA) were associated with prolonged hospitalization. Chest radiography, elevated C reactive protein, white blood cell and neutrophil counts were not useful to predict death or ICU admission in children hospitalized with pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, death from pneumonia was rare, but clinical features associated with serious outcomes and prolonged hospitalization were identified. These may help with risk stratification, to identify children who may benefit from enhanced monitoring or earlier escalation to respiratory support.

Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify and appraise the methodological rigour of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

DESIGN

Systematic review of peer-reviewed journals.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science electronic databases since inception to August 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included model development studies predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

This systematic review followed the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies framework. The risk of bias assessment was conducted using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). No quantitative summary was conducted due to substantial heterogeneity that was observed after assessing the studies included.

RESULTS

Our search strategy identified a total of 4054 unique articles. Among these, 3545 articles were excluded after review of titles and abstracts as they covered non-relevant topics. Full texts of 509 articles were screened for eligibility, of which 15 studies reporting 21 models met the eligibility criteria. Based on the PROBAST tool, risk of bias was assessed in four domains; participant, predictors, outcome and analyses. The domain of statistical analyses was the main area of concern where none of the included models was judged to be of low risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

This review identified 21 models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC. However, most reports characterising these models are of poor quality when judged against recent reporting standards due to a high risk of bias. Future studies should adhere to standardised methodological criteria and progress from identifying new risk scores to validating or adapting existing scores.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018088599.

Community‐acquired pneumonia among children: the latest evidence for an updated management

Objetivo

Fonte de dados

Síntese dos dados

Conclusões

Community-acquired pneumonia among children: the latest evidence for an updated management

OBJECTIVE

To provide cutting-edge information for the management of community-acquired pneumonia in children under 5 years, based on the latest evidence published in the literature.

DATA SOURCE

A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed, by using the expressions: "community-acquired pneumonia" AND "child" AND "etiology" OR "diagnosis" OR "severity" OR "antibiotic". All articles retrieved had the title and the abstract read, when the papers reporting the latest evidence on each subject were identified and downloaded for complete reading.

DATA SYNTHESIS

In the era of largely implemented bacterial conjugate vaccines and widespread use of amplification nucleic acid techniques, respiratory viruses have been identified as the most frequent causative agents of community-acquired pneumonia in patients under 5 years. Hypoxemia (oxygen saturation ≤96%) and increased work of breathing are signs most associated with community-acquired pneumonia. Wheezing detected on physical examination independently predicts viral infection and the negative predictive value (95% confidence interval) of normal chest X-ray and serum procalcitonin <0.25ng/dL was 92% (77-98%) and 93% (90-99%), respectively. Inability to drink/feed, vomiting everything, convulsions, lower chest indrawing, central cyanosis, lethargy, nasal flaring, grunting, head nodding, and oxygen saturation <90% are predictors of death and can be used as indicators for hospitalization. Moderate/large pleural effusions and multilobar infiltrates are predictors of severe disease. Orally administered amoxicillin is the first line outpatient treatment, while ampicillin, aqueous penicillin G, or amoxicillin (initiated initially by intravenous route) are the first line options to treat inpatients.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct aspects of childhood community-acquired pneumonia have changed during the last three decades.