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Rees CA, Ideh RC, Kisenge R, Kamara J, Coleman-Nekar YJG, Samma A, Godfrey E, Manji HK, Sudfeld CR, Westbrook AL, Niescierenko M, Morris CR, Whitney CG, Breiman RF, Duggan CP, Manji KP. Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e079389. [PMID: 38365298 PMCID: PMC10875550 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-079389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality. METHODS We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions. RESULTS There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]). CONCLUSIONS A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Readon C Ideh
- Department of Pediatrics, John F Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Rodrick Kisenge
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Julia Kamara
- Department of Pediatrics, John F Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | | | - Abraham Samma
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Evance Godfrey
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Hussein K Manji
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
- Accident and Emergency Department, The Aga Khan Health Services, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Christopher R Sudfeld
- Departments of Nutrition and Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Boston, USA
| | - Adrianna L Westbrook
- Pediatric Biostatistics Core, Department of Pediatrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Michelle Niescierenko
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Pediatrics and Emergency Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Claudia R Morris
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Cynthia G Whitney
- Emory Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Robert F Breiman
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Infectious Diseases and Oncology Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Christopher P Duggan
- Departments of Nutrition and Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Boston, USA
- Center for Nutrition, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Karim P Manji
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
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Xu C, Tao X, Zhu J, Hou C, Liu Y, Fu L, Zhu W, Yang X, Huang Y. Clinical features and risk factors analysis for poor outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia in children: a nomogram prediction model. Front Pediatr 2023; 11:1194186. [PMID: 37808557 PMCID: PMC10552538 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2023.1194186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1-59 months. The early prediction of poor outcomes (PO) is of critical concern. This study aimed to explore the risk factors relating to PO in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and build a PO-predictive nomogram model for children with SCAP. Methods We retrospectively identified 300 Chinese pediatric patients diagnosed with SCAP who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from August 1, 2018, to October 31, 2021. Children were divided into the PO and the non-PO groups. The occurrence of PO was designated as the dependent variable. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors of PO. A nomogram model was constructed from the multivariate logistic regression analysis and internally validated for model discrimination and calibration. The performance of the nomogram was estimated using the concordance index (C-index). Results According to the efficacy evaluation criteria, 56 of 300 children demonstrated PO. The multivariate logistic regression analysis resulted in the following independent risk factors for PO: co-morbidity (OR: 8.032, 95% CI: 3.556-18.140, P < 0.0001), requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (OR: 7.081, 95% CI: 2.250-22.282, P = 0.001), and ALB < 35 g/L (OR: 3.203, 95% CI: 1.151-8.912, P = 0.026). Results of the internal validation confirmed that the model provided good discrimination (concordance index [C-index], 0.876 [95% CI: 0.828-0.925]). The calibration plots in the nomogram model were of high quality. Conclusion The nomogram facilitated accurate prediction of PO in children diagnosed with SCAP and could be helpful for clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Changjing Xu
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Xuemei Tao
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Junlong Zhu
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Chao Hou
- Department of Ultrasound, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Yujie Liu
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Liya Fu
- School of Pharmacy, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Wanlong Zhu
- School of Pharmacy, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Xuping Yang
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
| | - Yilan Huang
- Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
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Nguyen PT, Nguyen TT, Huynh LT, Graham SM, Marais BJ. Clinical algorithm reduces antibiotic use among children presenting with respiratory symptoms to hospital in central Vietnam. Pneumonia (Nathan) 2023; 15:11. [PMID: 37488633 PMCID: PMC10367404 DOI: 10.1186/s41479-023-00113-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/26/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and utility of a pragmatic clinical algorithm to guide rational antibiotic use in children presenting with respiratory infection. METHODS The effect of an algorithm to guide the management of young (< 5 years) children presenting with respiratory symptoms to the Da Nang Hospital for Women and Children, Vietnam, was evaluated in a before-after intervention analysis. The main outcome was reduction in antibiotic use, with monitoring of potential harm resulting from reduced antibiotic use. The intervention comprised a single training session of physicians in the use of an algorithm informed by local evidence; developed during a previous prospective observational study. The evaluation was performed one month after the training. RESULTS Of the 1290 children evaluated before the intervention, 102 (7.9%) were admitted to hospital and 556/1188 (46.8%) were sent home with antibiotics. Due to COVID-19, only 166 children were evaluated after the intervention of whom 14 (8.4%) were admitted to hospital and 54/152 (35.5%) were sent home with antibiotics. Antibiotic use was reduced (from 46.8% to 35.5%; p = 0.009) after clinician training, but adequate comparison was compromised. The reduction was most pronounced in children with wheeze or runny nose and no fever, or a normal chest radiograph, where antibiotic use declined from 46.7% to 28.8% (p < 0.0001). The frequency of repeat presentation to hospital was similar between the two study periods (141/1188; 11.9% before and 10/152; 6.6% after; p = 0.10). No child represented with serious disease after being sent home without antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS We observed a reduction in antibiotic use in young children with a respiratory infection after physician training in the use of a simple evidence-based management algorithm. However, the study was severely impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, requiring further evaluation to confirm the observed effect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phuong Tk Nguyen
- Respiratory Department, Da Nang Hospital for Women and Children, Da Nang, Vietnam.
- Sydney Vietnam Initiative, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
| | - Tam Tm Nguyen
- Respiratory Department, Da Nang Hospital for Women and Children, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Lan Tb Huynh
- Respiratory Department, Da Nang Hospital for Women and Children, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Stephen M Graham
- Centre for International Child Health, University of Melbourne and Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ben J Marais
- Discipline of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, Australia
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute (Sydney ID), The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Rees CA, Colbourn T, Hooli S, King C, Lufesi N, McCollum ED, Mwansambo C, Cutland C, Madhi SA, Nunes M, Matthew JL, Addo-Yobo E, Chisaka N, Hassan M, Hibberd PL, Jeena PM, Lozano JM, MacLeod WB, Patel A, Thea DM, Nguyen NTV, Kartasasmita CB, Lucero M, Awasthi S, Bavdekar A, Chou M, Nymadawa P, Pape JW, Paranhos-Baccala G, Picot VS, Rakoto-Andrianarivelo M, Rouzier V, Russomando G, Sylla M, Vanhems P, Wang J, Asghar R, Banajeh S, Iqbal I, Maulen-Radovan I, Mino-Leon G, Saha SK, Santosham M, Singhi S, Basnet S, Strand TA, Bhatnagar S, Wadhwa N, Lodha R, Aneja S, Clara AW, Campbell H, Nair H, Falconer J, Qazi SA, Nisar YB, Neuman MI. Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries. BMJ Glob Health 2022; 7:bmjgh-2021-008143. [PMID: 35428680 PMCID: PMC9014031 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-008143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 03/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. Methods We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. Results A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). Conclusions The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Tim Colbourn
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Shubhada Hooli
- Section of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Texas Children's Hospital, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Carina King
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Norman Lufesi
- Acute Respiratory Illness Unit, Government of Malawi Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Eric D McCollum
- Global Program in Respiratory Sciences, Eudowood Division of Pediatric Respiratory Sciences, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Charles Mwansambo
- Acute Respiratory Illness Unit, Government of Malawi Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Clare Cutland
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Shabir Ahmed Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Marta Nunes
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Joseph L Matthew
- Advanced Pediatrics Centre, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | | | - Noel Chisaka
- World Bank, World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Mumtaz Hassan
- Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Patricia L Hibberd
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Prakash M Jeena
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, Durban, South Africa
| | - Juan M Lozano
- Division of Medical and Population Health Science Education and Research, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - William B MacLeod
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Archana Patel
- Lata Medical Research Foundation, Nagpur and Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Sawangi, India
| | - Donald M Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Cissy B Kartasasmita
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Marilla Lucero
- Department of Pediatrics, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Muntinlupa City, Philippines
| | - Shally Awasthi
- Department of Pediatrics, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | | | - Monidarin Chou
- Rodolph Mérieux Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Pagbajabyn Nymadawa
- Department of Pediatrics, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Graciela Russomando
- Departamento de Biología Molecular y Genética, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Asuncion, Paraguay
| | - Mariam Sylla
- Department of Pediatrics, Gabriel Touré University Hospital Center, Bamako, Mali
| | - Philippe Vanhems
- Unité d'Hygiène, Epidémiologie, Infectiovigilance et Prévention, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France
| | - Jianwei Wang
- MOH Key Laboratory of Systems Biology of Pathogens and Dr Christophe Mérieux Laboratory, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union, Beijing, China
| | - Rai Asghar
- Department of Paediatrics, Rawalpindi Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Salem Banajeh
- Department of Pediatrics, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Imran Iqbal
- Department of Pediatrics, Nishtar Medical College, Multan, Pakistan
| | - Irene Maulen-Radovan
- Division de Investigacion Insurgentes, Instituto Nactional de Pediatria, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Greta Mino-Leon
- Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital Dr Francisco de Ycaza Bustamante, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Samir K Saha
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka Shishu Hosp, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mathuram Santosham
- International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Sunit Singhi
- Department of Pediatrics, Medanta, The Medicity, Gurgaon, India
| | - Sudha Basnet
- Department of Pediatrics, Tribhuvan University Institute of Medicine, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Tor A Strand
- Department of Research, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Lillehammer, Norway
| | - Shinjini Bhatnagar
- Department of Maternal and Child Health, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad, India
| | - Nitya Wadhwa
- Department of Maternal and Child Health, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad, India
| | - Rakesh Lodha
- Department of Pediatrics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Satinder Aneja
- Department of Pediatrics, Sharda University School of Medical Sciences and Research, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - Alexey W Clara
- Central American Region, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Harry Campbell
- Population Health Sciences and Informati, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Harish Nair
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Jennifer Falconer
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Shamim A Qazi
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health (Retired), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Yasir B Nisar
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mark I Neuman
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Eckerle M, Mvalo T, Smith AG, Kondowe D, Makonokaya D, Vaidya D, Hosseinipour MC, McCollum ED. Identifying modifiable risk factors for mortality in children aged 1-59 months admitted with WHO-defined severe pneumonia: a single-centre observational cohort study from rural Malawi. BMJ Paediatr Open 2022; 6:10.1136/bmjpo-2021-001330. [PMID: 36053605 PMCID: PMC9020281 DOI: 10.1136/bmjpo-2021-001330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Although HIV infection, severe malnutrition and hypoxaemia are associated with high mortality in children with WHO-defined severe pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa, many do not have these conditions and yet mortality remains elevated compared with high-resource settings. Further stratifying mortality risk for children without these conditions could permit more strategic resource utilisation and improved outcomes. We therefore evaluated associations between mortality and clinical characteristics not currently recognised by the WHO as high risk among children in Malawi with severe pneumonia but without HIV (including exposure), severe malnutrition and hypoxaemia. METHODS Between May 2016 and March 2018, we conducted a prospective observational study alongside a randomised controlled trial (CPAP IMPACT) at Salima District Hospital in Malawi. Children aged 1-59 months hospitalised with WHO-defined severe pneumonia without severe malnutrition, HIV and hypoxaemia were enrolled. Study staff assessed children at admission and ascertained hospital outcomes. We compared group characteristics using Student's t-test, rank-sum test, χ2 test or Fisher's exact test as appropriate. RESULTS Among 884 participants, grunting (10/112 (8.9%) vs 11/771 (1.4%)), stridor (2/14 (14.2%) vs 19/870 (2.1%)), haemoglobin <50 g/L (3/27 (11.1%) vs 18/857 (2.1%)) and malaria (11/204 (5.3%) vs 10/673 (1.4%)) were associated with mortality compared with children without these characteristics. Children who survived had a 22 g/L higher mean haemoglobin and 0.7 cm higher mean mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) than those who died. CONCLUSION In this single-centre study, our analysis identifies potentially modifiable risk factors for mortality among hospitalised Malawian children with severe pneumonia: specific signs of respiratory distress (grunting, stridor), haemoglobin <50 g/L and malaria infection. Significant differences in mean haemoglobin and MUAC were observed between those who survived and those who died. These factors could further stratify mortality risk among hospitalised Malawian children with severe pneumonia lacking recognised high-risk conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle Eckerle
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Tisungane Mvalo
- University of North Carolina Project Malawi, Lilongwe, Central Region, Malawi.,Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Andrew G Smith
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
| | - Davie Kondowe
- University of North Carolina Project Malawi, Lilongwe, Central Region, Malawi
| | - Don Makonokaya
- University of North Carolina Project Malawi, Lilongwe, Central Region, Malawi
| | - Dhananjay Vaidya
- Department of Pediatrics, BEAD Core, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Mina C Hosseinipour
- University of North Carolina Project Malawi, Lilongwe, Central Region, Malawi.,Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Eric D McCollum
- Global Program in Pediatric Respiratory Sciences, Eudowood Division of Pediatric Respiratory Sciences, Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA .,Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Iroh Tam PY, Chirombo J, Henrion M, Newberry L, Mambule I, Everett D, Mwansambo C, Cunliffe N, French N, Heyderman RS, Bar-Zeev N. Clinical pneumonia in the hospitalised child in Malawi in the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era: a prospective hospital-based observational study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e050188. [PMID: 35135765 PMCID: PMC8830243 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Assess characteristics of clinical pneumonia after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), by HIV exposure status, in children hospitalised in a governmental hospital in Malawi. METHODS AND FINDINGS We evaluated 1139 children ≤5 years old hospitalised with clinical pneumonia: 101 HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) and 1038 HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU). Median age was 11 months (IQR 6-20), 59% were male, median mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was 14 cm (IQR 13-15) and mean weight-for-height z score was -0.7 (±2.5). The highest Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) scores were allocated to 10.4% of the overall cohort. Only 45.7% had fever, and 37.2% had at least one danger sign at presentation. The most common clinical features were crackles (54.7%), nasal flaring (53.5%) and lower chest wall indrawing (53.2%). Compared with HUU, HEU children were significantly younger (9 months vs 11 months), with lower mean birth weight (2.8 kg vs 3.0 kg) and MUAC (13.6 cm vs 14.0 cm), had higher prevalence of vomiting (32.7% vs 22.0%), tachypnoea (68.4% vs 49.8%) and highest RISC scores (20.0% vs 9.4%). Five children died (0.4%). However, clinical outcomes were similar for both groups. CONCLUSIONS In this post-PCV setting where prevalence of HIV and malnutrition is high, children hospitalised fulfilling the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness criteria for clinical pneumonia present with heterogeneous features. These vary by HIV exposure status but this does not influence either the frequency of danger signs or mortality. The poor performance of available severity scores in this population and the absence of more specific diagnostics hinder appropriate antimicrobial stewardship and the rational application of other interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pui-Ying Iroh Tam
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Paediatrics and Child Health Research Group, Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - James Chirombo
- Statistical Support Unit, Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Marc Henrion
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Statistical Support Unit, Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Laura Newberry
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Ivan Mambule
- Paediatrics and Child Health Research Group, Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
- Clinical Infection, Microbiology and Immunology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Dean Everett
- Paediatrics and Child Health Research Group, Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
- Pathology and Infectious Diseases, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | | | - Nigel Cunliffe
- Clinical Infection, Microbiology and Immunology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Neil French
- Centre for Global Vaccine Research, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Liverpool, UK
| | - Robert S Heyderman
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK
| | - Naor Bar-Zeev
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi
- Paediatrics and Child Health Research Group, Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK
- Global Disease Epidemiology and Control, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Rees CA, Kisenge R, Ideh RC, Kamara J, Samma A, Godfrey E, Manji HK, Sudfeld CR, Westbrook A, Niescierenko M, Manji KP, Duggan CP. A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol. BMJ Paediatr Open 2022; 6:10.1136/bmjpo-2021-001379. [PMID: 35404835 PMCID: PMC8756287 DOI: 10.1136/bmjpo-2021-001379] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Accepted: 12/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA .,Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Rodrick Kisenge
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Readon C Ideh
- Department of Pediatrics, John F. Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Julia Kamara
- Department of Pediatrics, John F. Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Abraham Samma
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Evance Godfrey
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Hussein K Manji
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Christopher R Sudfeld
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Adrianna Westbrook
- Pediatric Biostatistics Core, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Michelle Niescierenko
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Karim P Manji
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Christopher P Duggan
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Center for Nutrition, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES Although community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infections in children, no standardized risk classification exists to guide management. The objective of this study was to develop expert consensus for factors associated with various degrees of disease severity in pediatric CAP. METHODS Using a web-based classical Delphi process, a multidisciplinary panel of 10 childhood pneumonia experts rated the degree of severity (mild, moderate, or severe) of clinical, radiographic, and laboratory factors, as well as outcomes relevant to pediatric pneumonia. Round 1 was open-ended, with panelists freely stating all characteristics they felt determined pneumonia severity. In rounds 2 to 4, panelists used a 9-point Likert scale (1-3, mild; 4-6, moderate; 7-9, severe) to rate severity for each item. Consensus was defined as 70% or greater agreement in ranking mild, moderate, or severe. RESULTS Panelists identified 318 factors or outcomes in round 1; the panel reached consensus for 286 (90%). The majority of items without consensus straddled levels of severity (eg, mild-moderate). Notable clinical factors with consensus included age, oxygen saturation, age-based respiratory rate, and gestational age. Severity classification consensus was also reached for specific imaging and laboratory findings. Need for and duration of hospitalization, supplemental oxygen/respiratory support, and intravenous fluids/medications were considered important outcomes in classifying severity. CONCLUSIONS This study presents factors deemed important for risk stratification in pediatric CAP by consensus of a multidisciplinary expert panel. This initial step toward identifying and formalizing severity criteria for CAP informs critical knowledge gaps and can be leveraged in future development of clinically meaningful risk stratification scores.
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Affiliation(s)
- Preston Dean
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center
| | - Daniel Schumacher
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH
| | - Todd A. Florin
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago
- Department of Pediatrics, North-western University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
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9
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Rees CA, Hooli S, King C, McCollum ED, Colbourn T, Lufesi N, Mwansambo C, Lazzerini M, Madhi SA, Cutland C, Nunes M, Gessner BD, Basnet S, Kartasasmita CB, Mathew JL, Zaman SMAU, Paranhos-Baccala G, Bhatnagar S, Wadhwa N, Lodha R, Aneja S, Santosham M, Picot VS, Sylla M, Awasthi S, Bavdekar A, Pape JW, Rouzier V, Chou M, Rakoto-Andrianarivelo M, Wang J, Nymadawa P, Vanhems P, Russomando G, Asghar R, Banajeh S, Iqbal I, MacLeod W, Maulen-Radovan I, Mino G, Saha S, Singhi S, Thea DM, Clara AW, Campbell H, Nair H, Falconer J, Williams LJ, Horne M, Strand T, Qazi SA, Nisar YB, Neuman MI. External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia. J Glob Health 2021; 11:04062. [PMID: 34737862 PMCID: PMC8542381 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.11.04062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores. METHODS We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules. RESULTS The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73). CONCLUSIONS In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Shubhada Hooli
- Section of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Texas Children's Hospital, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Carina King
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden and Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Eric D McCollum
- Global Program in Respiratory Sciences, Eudowood Division of Pediatric Respiratory Sciences, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, USA and Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA
| | - Tim Colbourn
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Marzia Lazzerini
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Maternal and Child Health, Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Shabir Ahmed Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Clare Cutland
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Marta Nunes
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Sudha Basnet
- Center for Intervention Science in Maternal and Child Health, University of Bergen, Norway
| | - Cissy B Kartasasmita
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Joseph L Mathew
- Pediatric Pulmonology, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | | | | | | | - Nitya Wadhwa
- Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad, India
| | - Rakesh Lodha
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Satinder Aneja
- School of Medical Sciences & Research, Sharda University, Greater Noida, India
| | - Mathuram Santosham
- Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Mariam Sylla
- Gabriel Touré Hospital, Department of Pediatrics, Bamako, Mali
| | - Shally Awasthi
- King George's Medical University, UP, Department of Pediatrics, Lucknow, India
| | | | | | | | - Monidarin Chou
- University of Health Sciences Faculty of Medicine, Rodolph Mérieux Laboratory, Phom Phen, Cambodia
| | | | - Jianwei Wang
- Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union, Medical College Institute of Pathogen Biology, MOH Key Laboratory of Systems Biology of Pathogens and Dr Christophe Mérieux Laboratory, Beijing, China
| | - Pagbajabyn Nymadawa
- Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Academy of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Philippe Vanhems
- Hospices Civils de Lyon, Infection Control Unit; CIRI, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie, (Team PHE3ID), Université Claude Bernard Lyon, Lyon, France
| | - Graciela Russomando
- Universidad Nacional de Asuncion, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, San Lorenzo, Paraguay
| | - Rai Asghar
- Rawalpindi Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | | | | | - William MacLeod
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Irene Maulen-Radovan
- Instituto Nactional de Pediatria Division de Investigacion Insurgentes, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Greta Mino
- Children's Hospital Dr Francisco de Ycaza Bustamante, Head of Department, Infectious diseases, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Samir Saha
- Dhaka Shishu Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Donald M Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Alexey W Clara
- US Centers for Disease Control, Central American Region, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Harry Campbell
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Harish Nair
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Jennifer Falconer
- Institute for Global Health and Development, Queen Margaret University, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Linda J Williams
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Margaret Horne
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Tor Strand
- Research Department, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Lillehammer, Norway
| | - Shamim A Qazi
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health (Retired), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Yasir B Nisar
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mark I Neuman
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Le Roux DM, Nicol MP, Vanker A, Nduru PM, Zar HJ. Factors associated with serious outcomes of pneumonia among children in a birth cohort in South Africa. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0255790. [PMID: 34388194 PMCID: PMC8363001 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2020] [Accepted: 07/25/2021] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Child hospitalization for pneumonia remains common, and pneumonia is a major cause of child mortality. Early identification of clinical factors associated with serious outcomes may help target risk-mitigation strategies. METHODS Pneumonia cases occurring in the Drakenstein Child Health Study, a prospective birth cohort outside Cape Town, South Africa were analysed, and factors associated with serious outcomes of pneumonia were identified. Pregnant women were enrolled antenatally, followed through pregnancy, and mother-child pairs from birth to 2 years. Active surveillance for pneumonia was done. Children hospitalized with pneumonia had chest radiography and blood drawn for inflammatory markers; course, outcome and duration of hospitalization were investigated. Serious outcomes were defined as in-hospital mortality or admission to intensive care unit (ICU). Prolonged hospitalization was also explored as a proxy for severity. Features associated with serious outcomes or prolonged hospitalization were analysed using modified Poisson regression. RESULTS Among 1143 live born infants, there were 174 hospitalized pneumonia events in 133 children under 2 years. Three children (1.7%) died, 14 (8%) required ICU admission for respiratory support. In modified Poisson regression, age < 2 months, preterm birth, or hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92%) were significantly associated with serious outcomes. Preterm birth, low birth weight, HIV exposure, stunting, or underweight-for-age (UWFA) were associated with prolonged hospitalization. Chest radiography, elevated C reactive protein, white blood cell and neutrophil counts were not useful to predict death or ICU admission in children hospitalized with pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS In this cohort, death from pneumonia was rare, but clinical features associated with serious outcomes and prolonged hospitalization were identified. These may help with risk stratification, to identify children who may benefit from enhanced monitoring or earlier escalation to respiratory support.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M Le Roux
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and SA-MRC Unit on Child and Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Department of Paediatrics, New Somerset Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Mark P Nicol
- Division of Medical Microbiology, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town, South Africa
- Division of Infection and Immunity, School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Aneesa Vanker
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and SA-MRC Unit on Child and Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Polite M Nduru
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and SA-MRC Unit on Child and Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Heather J Zar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and SA-MRC Unit on Child and Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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Ogero M, Sarguta RJ, Malla L, Aluvaala J, Agweyu A, English M, Onyango NO, Akech S. Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review. BMJ Open 2020; 10:e035045. [PMID: 33077558 PMCID: PMC7574949 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-035045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2019] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/09/2020] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To identify and appraise the methodological rigour of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN Systematic review of peer-reviewed journals. DATA SOURCES MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science electronic databases since inception to August 2019. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA We included model development studies predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS This systematic review followed the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies framework. The risk of bias assessment was conducted using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). No quantitative summary was conducted due to substantial heterogeneity that was observed after assessing the studies included. RESULTS Our search strategy identified a total of 4054 unique articles. Among these, 3545 articles were excluded after review of titles and abstracts as they covered non-relevant topics. Full texts of 509 articles were screened for eligibility, of which 15 studies reporting 21 models met the eligibility criteria. Based on the PROBAST tool, risk of bias was assessed in four domains; participant, predictors, outcome and analyses. The domain of statistical analyses was the main area of concern where none of the included models was judged to be of low risk of bias. CONCLUSION This review identified 21 models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC. However, most reports characterising these models are of poor quality when judged against recent reporting standards due to a high risk of bias. Future studies should adhere to standardised methodological criteria and progress from identifying new risk scores to validating or adapting existing scores. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42018088599.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morris Ogero
- School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi College of Biological and Physical Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya
- Health Services Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Rachel Jelagat Sarguta
- School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi College of Biological and Physical Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Lucas Malla
- Health Services Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jalemba Aluvaala
- Health Services Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Ambrose Agweyu
- Health Services Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Mike English
- Health Services Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
- Nuffield Department of Medicine and Department of Paediatrics, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Nelson Owuor Onyango
- School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi College of Biological and Physical Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Samuel Akech
- Health Services Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
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Nascimento‐Carvalho CM. Community‐acquired pneumonia among children: the latest evidence for an updated management. JORNAL DE PEDIATRIA (VERSÃO EM PORTUGUÊS) 2020. [PMCID: PMC7154611 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpedp.2019.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Objetivo Fonte de dados Síntese dos dados Conclusões
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Community-acquired pneumonia among children: the latest evidence for an updated management. J Pediatr (Rio J) 2020; 96 Suppl 1:29-38. [PMID: 31518547 PMCID: PMC7094337 DOI: 10.1016/j.jped.2019.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 08/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To provide cutting-edge information for the management of community-acquired pneumonia in children under 5 years, based on the latest evidence published in the literature. DATA SOURCE A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed, by using the expressions: "community-acquired pneumonia" AND "child" AND "etiology" OR "diagnosis" OR "severity" OR "antibiotic". All articles retrieved had the title and the abstract read, when the papers reporting the latest evidence on each subject were identified and downloaded for complete reading. DATA SYNTHESIS In the era of largely implemented bacterial conjugate vaccines and widespread use of amplification nucleic acid techniques, respiratory viruses have been identified as the most frequent causative agents of community-acquired pneumonia in patients under 5 years. Hypoxemia (oxygen saturation ≤96%) and increased work of breathing are signs most associated with community-acquired pneumonia. Wheezing detected on physical examination independently predicts viral infection and the negative predictive value (95% confidence interval) of normal chest X-ray and serum procalcitonin <0.25ng/dL was 92% (77-98%) and 93% (90-99%), respectively. Inability to drink/feed, vomiting everything, convulsions, lower chest indrawing, central cyanosis, lethargy, nasal flaring, grunting, head nodding, and oxygen saturation <90% are predictors of death and can be used as indicators for hospitalization. Moderate/large pleural effusions and multilobar infiltrates are predictors of severe disease. Orally administered amoxicillin is the first line outpatient treatment, while ampicillin, aqueous penicillin G, or amoxicillin (initiated initially by intravenous route) are the first line options to treat inpatients. CONCLUSIONS Distinct aspects of childhood community-acquired pneumonia have changed during the last three decades.
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